Chips, energy and an Amazon rival: Stock picks from a fund manager with three decades of experience

Markets are again on the backfoot ahead of Thursday’s open. Credit Suisse shares have shot higher on plans to borrow billions, a day after collapsing and upending already fragile markets.

The European Central Bank raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points as some had expected. That’s as stress returns for some U.S> lenders.

Onto our call of the day, which comes from the manager of the Plumb Balanced Fund
PLIBX,
-1.08%
,
Tom Plumb, who has three stock ideas to share. But first, some timely advice from the manager’s three decades of experience.

“The market is really going to be volatile here, but if you look at 1981 to 1982, it was a significant amount of pressure on the stock market, but the fourth quarter of 1982…the S&P 500
SPX,
-0.21%

was up 40%,” Plumb told MarketWatch in a recent interview.

“I think people still have to look at what their comfort with risk is…for the first time in 15 years, they have a reasonable expectation that a balanced portfolio will modify the volatility because they’re earning 4% to 7% on their higher quality fixed income investments,” he said.

“You just have to make sure the companies you own aren’t overleveraged, they’re not dependent on capital and that they’re not standing, as we say, on the railroad tracks for different trends that are really going to be developing,” said Plumb.

That brings us to his first pick, microcontroller maker Microchip Technology
MCHP,
-0.17%
,
which he has owned at different periods over 20 years and sits in a sector he likes — chips.

The first microcontroller was put on a car to regulate the fuel injection system in 1987 and the average car now has about 400 of those, controlling everything from temperature, to safety, he notes. Microchip trades at about 14 times forward earnings, and likes the fact they’re normally conservative on the guidance front.

And: Intel’s stock nabs an upgrade: ‘Things are moving enough in the right direction.’

“They focus on industrial aerospace, defense, auto and auto centers. They have almost no exposure to PCs and cellphone markets,” return free cash to shareholders, with regular dividends over the past 15 years. While not as sexy as AI, Microchip delivers on the basis of a “good, solid company,” he said.

Read: Chip stocks fall as delivery times shrink, Samsung plans to build world’s largest chip complex

His next pick is down to the Ukraine war’s causation of a rethink of energy independence, capacity and companies that can produce commodities such as liquid natural gas. With that Philips 66
PSX,
-0.22%

is “probably the best company in the mid market,” trading at about 7 times earnings, with a 4% dividend yield meaning investors are paid as they wait, he said.

“Earnings obviously are pretty volatile, but their main thing is capacity utilization rates on the refineries. Refineries are only a quarter of their revenues, but it’s 60% of their profits, and then they transport the LNG,” he said. LNG exports will be significant as countries try to diversify energy inputs, and “carbon-based energy is gonna still have a significant place in the world for a long time,” he adds.

His last pick is an old favorite for the manager — Latin America’s answer to Amazon.com
AMZN,
+1.21%

— MercadoLibre
MELIN,
-0.63%

MELI,
-0.58%
,
whose shares have been on the recovery road after coming off COVID-19 pandemic-era highs. The company is now “getting to scale and you’re seeing a tremendous increase in not only their revenues, but their profit margins are expanding,” he said.

“So it looks like you’re going to have 28% revenue growth maybe for the next four years at least, and get 50% plus growth in their reported earnings,” he said, noting increasing benefits of electronic transactions and digital advertising.

“So you’ve got three legs: you’ve got the financial, you’ve got the Amazon type, online retailer and the third is the advertising. All of these things are putting them in a spot that’s unique in Latin America, Mexico and South America,” said Plumb.

Last word from Plumb? Like many others, he’s worried that the Fed has moved too fast with rate hikes and that those delayed effects are playing out. He worries about risk to insurance companies and long-term lenders of commercial real estate, which he thinks will be “an area of significant potential risk over the next couple of years.”

The markets

Stock futures
ES00,
-0.54%

YM00,
-0.78%

NQ00,
-0.27%

extended losses after the ECB rate hike, while bond yields
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.440%

TMUBMUSD02Y,
3.961%

have also turned lower, and the dollar
DXY,
-0.14%

lower. Asian stocks
HSI,
-1.72%

NIK,
-0.80%

fell, while European equities
SXXP,
+0.06%

turned mixed after the ECB hiked interest rates. German 2-year bund yields
TMBMKDE-02Y,
2.466%

are also rising after a big plunge. Oil prices
CL.1,
-1.39%

are weaker.

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The buzz

“Inflation is projected to remain too high for too long.” That was the ECB statemetn following a 50 basis point rate hike to 3%, a move that some had been on the fence over, given fresh banking stress. President Christine Lagarde will speak soon.

U.S. data showed weekly jobless claims dropping 29,000 to 1.68 million, while import prices declined 0.1%, housing starts rebounded by a 9.8% jump and building permits surged 13.8%. The Philly Fed manufacturing gauge remained deep in contraction territory in March, hitting a negative 23.2, versus expectations of 15.5

Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen is expected to tell the Senate Finance Committee on Thursday that the U.S. banking system is “sound.”

That’s as First Republic shares
FRC,
-29.97%

have dropped 35% to a fresh record low amid reports the battered lender is considering a sale. The lender was cut to junk by Fitch and S&P on Wednesday. Elsewhere, PacWest Bancorp
PACW,
-18.29%

is down 14%.

Meanwhile, “everything is fine,” with Credit Suisse, said the head of top shareholder Saudi National Bank on Thursday, a day after he effectively blew up markets by saying the Middle Eastern bank wouldn’t boost its stake. Credit Suisse shares
CS,
+3.51%

CSGN,
+15.73%

are surging on a pledge to borrow money from the Swiss National Bank and repay debt.

Adobe shares
ADBE,
+2.99%

are up 5% after topping Wall Street expectations for the quarter and hiking its outlook.

Shares of Snap
SNAP,
+6.77%

are up 6%, following a report that the Biden administration has told its Chinese owners to sell their TikTok stakes or face U.S. ban.

Shares of DSW parent Designer Brands
DBI,
+14.13%

are headed for a 2-year low after a surprise profit, but disappointing revenue.

Goldman Sachs is lifting its odds of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months by 10 percentage points to 35%, over worries about the economic effects of small bank stress.

Best of the web

Chinese companies are still trying to get their money out of SVB.

A rare Patek Philippe watch owned by the last emperor of China’s Qing dynasty could break auction records.

An issue with your tissue? ‘Forever chemicals’ are in toilet paper, too.

The tickers

These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.

Ticker

Security name

TSLA,
+0.89%
Tesla

CS,
+3.51%
Credit Suisse

FRC,
-29.97%
First Republic Bank

BBBY,
+8.25%
Bed Bath & Beyond

CSGN,
+15.73%
Credit Suisse

AMC,
-2.45%
AMC Entertainment

GME,
-1.38%
GameStop

AAPL,
+0.08%
Apple

NIO,
+0.91%
NIO

APE,
-8.10%
AMC Entertainment Holdings preferred shares

Random reads

Cookie Monster NFTs? No thanks, say the furry guy’s fans.

The 8-year old daughter of a Russian President Vladimir Putin ally apparently owns a multimillion-dollar London apartment.

This Spanish ice cream screams childhood days.

Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch reporter Charles Passy and economist Stephanie Kelton.

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#Chips #energy #Amazon #rival #Stock #picks #fund #manager #decades #experience

Zipline unveils P2 delivery drones that dock and recharge autonomously

Logistics startup Zipline has flown more than 38 million miles with its autonomous electric delivery drones since the company was founded in 2014. Zipline put its first fleet to work in Rwanda, delivering blood and other health supplies to clinics and hospitals. Since then, the Silicon Valley startup has expanded its service in six other countries, with limited delivery service and distribution centers in three states.

On Wednesday, Zipline showed off its next-generation aircraft, which it hopes will make rapid aerial deliveries an everyday convenience for customers throughout the U.S., even in densely populated urban areas.

Zipline’s new drone, dubbed the Platform 2 or P2 Zip, is capable of carrying up to eight pounds worth of cargo within a ten-mile radius, and can land a package on a space as small as a table or doorstep.

“The reason that number is important,” says Zipline CEO and co-founder Keller Rinaudo Cliffton, “is that when you look at e-commerce in the US, a vast majority of packages weigh five pounds or less.”

Zipline cofounders, CEO Keller Rinaudo Cliffton and CTO Keenan Wryobek

Zipline

The P2 Zip can travel ten miles in ten minutes, and the company can make a delivery approximately seven times faster than any typical service you may order from today, the CEO said. Rapid deliveries by drone may put an end to “porch pirates,” Rinaudo Cliffton said, referring to the theft of packages left on a doorstep while the customer is away from home.

While Zipline’s original drone, the P1 Zip, features a fixed wing or glider-like design, the P2 employs both lift and cruise propellers and a fixed wing. These help it maneuver precisely and quietly, even in rainy or windy weather.

To deliver cargo to a customer’s door, the P2 Zip hovers around 300 feet above ground level and dispatches a kind of mini-aircraft and container called the “droid.” The droid descends on a long thin tether, and maneuvers quietly into place with fan-like thrusters before setting down for package retrieval.

Zipline’s original P1 drones will remain in production and in wide use, says Rinaudo Cliffton. The P1 Zip can fly a longer distance, delivering up to five pounds of cargo within a 60-mile radius, but it requires a larger space for take off, landings and “the drop.”

The P1 Zip lets cargo down with a parachute attached, so its payload lands within a space about the size of two car parking spots. After a P1 Zip returns to base, an employee needs to disassemble it, then set up a new one, dropping in a freshly charged battery for the next flight.

Zipline’s new P2 Zip can dock and power up autonomously at a charging station that looks something like a street lamp with an arm and a large disc attached to that arm:

A rendering of P2 Zips charging at a docking station.

Zipline

Zipline docks can be installed in a single parking spot or alongside a building depending on zoning and permits. Zipline envisions the docks set up by restaurants in a downtown shopping district, or alongside the outer wall of a hospital, where the droid can be inserted into a window or dumbwaiter, retrieved, and reloaded by healthcare workers indoors.

Setting up one of these docks takes about as much work as installing an electric vehicle charger, Rinaudo Cliffton said.

Before developing the P2 Zip, Zipline had established logistics networks in Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Japan, Kenya, Nigeria and Rwanda already. It is operating some drone delivery networks in the US, in North Carolina, Arkansas and Utah — but the P2 will help it expand that network.

Partners who plan to test deliveries via P2 Zip include the healthy fast-casual restaurant Sweetgreen, Intermountain Health in Salt Lake City, Michigan Medicine, Multicare Healthcare System in Tacoma, Wash., and the government of Rwanda.

Zipline is not alone in its ambitions. Zipline is part of a program with other startups like DroneUp and Flytrex to make deliveries for Walmart. Amazon, meanwhile, has been working on making drone deliveries a reality here for nearly a decade, although that business has struggled to overcome a thicket of regulation and low demand from test customers.

Quiet and green is the goal

Zipline head of engineering Jo Mardall told CNBC the company focused much of its engineering on making sure the drones were not just safe and energy-efficient, but also quiet enough that residents would embrace their use. 

“People are worried about noise, rightly. I’m worried about noise. I don’t want to live in a world where there’s a bunch of loud aircraft flying above my house,” he said. “Success for us looks like being in the background, being barely audible.” That means something closer to rustling leaves than a car driving by. 

The droid component of the P2 Zip is designed to enter distribution centers through a small portal, where it’s loaded up with goods for delivery.

Zipline

The P2 Zips have a unique propeller design that makes this possible, Mardall explained, adding, “The fact that the Zip delivers from from 300 feet up really helps a lot.”

Mardall and Rinaudo Cliffton emphasized that Zipline aims to have a net-beneficial impact on the environment while giving business a better way to move everything from hot meals to refrigerated vaccines just in time to customers. 

Unmanned aerial vehicles, they explained, avoid worsening traffic congestion by going overhead. And since Zipline’s drones are electric, they can be powered with renewable or clean energy, without the emissions from burning jet fuel, gasoline, or diesel.

But most importantly, the CEO said, Zipline’s drone delivery allows companies to “centralize more inventory,” and “dramatically reduce waste.”

A study published by Lancet found that hospitals using Zipline services were able to reduce their total annual blood supply waste rate by 67%, the CEO boasted.

“That is a mind-blowing statistic, and a really big deal. It saves health systems millions of dollars, by reducing inventory at the last mile and only sending it when it’s needed.”

Zipline is aiming to bring that efficiency to every corner of commerce, the CEO said. It’s also aiming to keep the cost of drone delivery competitive with existing services, like FedEx and UPS, or food delivery apps like Uber Eats and Instacart.

But first, the startup plans to conduct more than 10,000 test flights using about 100 new P2 Zips this year. With its existing P1 drones, Zipline is already on track to complete about 1 million deliveries by the end of 2023, and by 2025 it expects to operate more flights annually than most commercial airlines.

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#Zipline #unveils #delivery #drones #dock #recharge #autonomously

Quantum Computing Is the Future, and Schools Need to Catch Up

The harnessed power of the subatomic world could soon upend the modern computing industry. Quantum computers are all over the news, and fundamental work on the theory that gave rise to them even won last year’s Nobel Prize.

But the one place you might not hear about them is inside a physics classroom. And if we have any hope of creating a technology-literate population and developing a workforce for this emerging field, that needs to change.

What’s a quantum computer? Unlike the computer sitting on your desk, which encodes words or numbers as collections of 1s and 0s called “bits,” quantum computers rely on quantum bits or “qubits,” which are more, well, dicey (much to Einstein’s chagrin). Unlike bits, qubits assign weights to their 1s and 0s, more like how you would tailor loaded dice, which means there is a probability associated with measuring either number. They lack a definite value, instead embodying a bit of both states until you measure them. Quantum algorithms run on these qubits, and, theoretically, perform calculations by rolling these loaded dice, causing their probabilities to interfere and increasing their odds of finding the ideal solution. The ultimate hope is that math operations such as factoring gargantuan numbers, which now would take a computer billions of years to perform, would only take a few days on a quantum computer.

This new way of computing could crack hard problems that are out of reach for classical processors, opening new frontiers everywhere from drug discovery to artificial intelligence. But rather than expose students to quantum phenomena, most physics curricula today are designed to start with the physics ABCs—riveting topics such as strings on pulleys and inclined planes—and while students certainly need to know the basics (there’s room for Newton and Maxwell alongside Schrödinger’s cat), there should to be time spent connecting what they are learning to state-of-the-art technology.

That matters because quantum computing is no longer a science experiment. Technology demonstrations from IBM (my employer), Google and other industry players prove that useful quantum computing is on the horizon. The supply of quantum workers however, remains quite small. A 2021 McKinsey report predicts major talent shortages—with the number of open jobs outnumbering the number of qualified applicants by about 3 to 1—until at least the end of the decade without fixes. That report also estimates that the quantum talent pool in the U.S. will fall far behind China and Europe. China has announced the most public funding to date of any country, more than double the investments by E.U. governments, $15.3 billion compared to $7.2 billion, and eight times more than U.S. government investments.

Thankfully, things are starting to change. Universities are exposing students sooner to once-feared quantum mechanics courses. Students are also learning through less-traditional means, like YouTube channels or online courses, and seeking out open-source communities to begin their quantum journeys. And it’s about time, as demand is skyrocketing for quantum-savvy scientists, software developers and even business majors to fill a pipeline of scientific talent. We can’t keep waiting six or more years for every one of those students to receive a Ph.D., which is the norm in the field right now.

Schools are finally responding to this need. Some universities are offering non-Ph.D. programs in quantum computing, for example. In recent years, Wisconsin and the University of California, Los Angeles, have welcomed inaugural classes of quantum information masters’ degree students into intensive year-long programs. U.C.L.A. ended up bringing in a much larger cohort than the university anticipated, demonstrating student demand. The University of Pittsburgh has taken a different approach, launching a new undergraduate major combining physics and traditional computer science, answering the need for a four-year program that prepares students for either employment or more education. In addition, Ohio recently became the first state to add quantum training to its K-12 science curricula.

And finally, professors are starting to incorporate hands-on, application-focused lessons into their quantum curricula. Universities around the world are beginning to teach courses using Qiskit, Cirq and other open-source quantum programming frameworks that let their students experiment on real quantum computers through the cloud.

Some question this initiative. I’ve heard skeptics ask, is it a good idea to train a new generation of students in a technology that is not fully realized? Or what can really be gained by trying to teach quantum physics to students so young?

These are reasonable questions but consider: Quantum is more than just a technology; it’s a field of study that undergirds chemistry, biology, engineering and more; quantum education is valuable beyond just computing. And if quantum computing does pan out—which I think it will—then we’ll be far better off if more people understand it.

Quantum technology is the future, and quantum computing education is STEM education, as Charles Tahan, the director at the National Quantum Coordination Office, once told me. Not all of these students will end up directly in the quantum industry at the end, and that’s all for the better. They might work in a related science or engineering field, such as fiber optics or cybersecurity, that would benefit from their knowledge of quantum, or in business where they can make better decisions based on their understanding of the technology.

At my job, I talk about quantum technologies to students daily. And I’ve learned that above all, they are hungry to learn. Quantum overturns our perception of reality. It draws people in and keeps them there, as the popularity of NASA and the moon landing did for astrophysics. We should lean into what captures students’ attention and shape our programs and curricula to meet these desires.

For those schools adapting to the emerging quantum era, the core message is simple: don’t underestimate your students. Some might hear the word quantum and shudder, fearing it is beyond their comprehension. But I have met high school and middle school students who grasp the concepts with ease. How can we expect young students to pursue this subject when we gate-keep it behind years of pulleys and sliding blocks? Universities should start introducing quantum information much sooner in the curriculum, and K-12 schools should not shy away from introducing some basic quantum concepts at an early age. We should not underestimate students, but rather, we should trust them to tell us what they want to learn—for their benefit and for all of science. If we drag our feet even a little, we all stand to lose the immense benefits quantum could bring to our economy, technology and future industries.

This is an opinion and analysis article, and the views expressed by the author or authors are not necessarily those of Scientific American.

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#Quantum #Computing #Future #Schools #Catch

Amazon shows off new satellite internet antennas as it takes on SpaceX’s Starlink

The company’s “standard” customer terminal, the middle of the trio of Project Kuiper satellite antennas at under 11 inches square and weighing under five pounds.

Amazon

WASHINGTON — Amazon revealed a trio of satellite antennas on Tuesday, as the company prepares to take on SpaceX’s Starlink with its own Project Kuiper internet network.

The tech giant said the “standard” version of the satellite antenna, also known as a customer terminal, is expected to cost Amazon less than $400 each to produce.

“Every technology and business decision we’ve had has centered on what will deliver the best experience for different customers around the world, and our range of customer terminals reflect those choices,” Rajeev Badyal, Amazon vice president of technology for Project Kuiper, said in a statement.

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Project Kuiper is Amazon’s plan to build a network of 3,236 satellites in low Earth orbit, to provide high-speed internet to anywhere in the world. The Federal Communications Commission in 2020 authorized Amazon’s system, in which the company has said it will “invest more than $10 billion” to build.

The Kuiper antennas

The “ultra-compact” version of the Project Kuiper

Amazon

The “standard” design measures under 11 inches square and 1 inch thick, and weighs under 5 pounds. Amazon says the device will deliver speeds to customers of “up to 400 megabits per second (Mbps).”

An “ultra-compact” model, which Amazon says is its smallest and most affordable, is a 7-inch square design that weighs about 1 pound and will offer speeds up to 100 Mbps. In additional to residential customers, Amazon plans to offer the antenna to government and enterprise customers for services like “ground mobility and internet of things.”

Amazon Senior Vice President of Devices and Services Dave Limp declined to say how much it costs to make each ultra-compact antenna, but told CNBC that it is “materially less” expensive to make than the standard model.

Its largest “pro” model, at 19 inches by 30 inches, represents a high-bandwidth version for more demanding customers. Amazon says this antenna will be able to “deliver speeds up to 1 gigabit per second (Gbps)” via space. Badyal told CNBC there are a variety of enterprise and government applications for the pro series, such as “oil rigs in the middle of the ocean” or “ships that want lots of bandwidth,” such as military vessels.

The company’s “Pro” customer terminal, the largest of the trio of Project Kuiper satellite antennas at 19 inches by 30 inches.

Amazon

Amazon has yet to say what it expects the monthly service cost for Project Kuiper customers will be.

In showing early customers its antennas, Limp said he’s seen them get “excited” about the lineup.

“They’re surprised by the price points, surprised at the performance for the size, and [the antennas] are solid state so there’s no motors,” Limp told CNBC.

Amazon said it expects to begin mass-producing commercial satellites by the end of this year. Limp told CNBC that once Amazon’s manufacturing facility is fully built, the company expects to manufacture up to “three to five satellites per day at scale.”

“We’ll ramp up to that volume,” Limp said.

Amazon’s demand for rocket launches

The company’s first two prototype satellites are scheduled to launch on the debut mission of United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan rocket, set for May.

Badyal told CNBC that Amazon expects to make “minor tweaks” from the prototypes to the commercial version, as the satellites are “almost identical” but represent the first time much of the company’s hardware has flown in space.

The company’s prototype Project Kuiper satellites shipping for launch.

Amazon

While Amazon has yet to show off its satellites, or reveal many details, Limp noted that the Kuiper spacecraft are “larger mass” than the first generation of SpaceX’s Starlink satellites, with Amazon aiming for “Goldilocks-sizing.” And Amazon expects the performance of its Kuiper satellites to “outperform them significantly” when compared to Starlink, with expected performance of processing up to 1 terabit per second (Tbps) of traffic. The satellites are expected to have a lifespan in space of about seven years, before they need to be replaced.

Launches of production satellites are scheduled to begin in the first half of 2024, with initial service slated for once the company has a few hundred satellites in orbit, Limp noted.

Last year, Amazon announced the biggest corporate rocket deal in the industry’s history, and has booked 77 launches – deals that included options for more when needed – from a variety of companies to deploy the satellites fast enough to meet regulatory requirements.

Limp said that those launches mean Amazon has “enough to get the vast majority of the constellation up” in space.

“I don’t think you’re ever done thinking about launch capacity, but we feel pretty good about what we have on the order books,” Limp added. “If new vehicles come online, that are more competitive, we’re going to look at it.”

Notably, Amazon has not purchased launches from SpaceX, the most active U.S. rocket launcher. Instead, Amazon has tapped a variety of competitors, purchasing rides largely on rockets that have yet to debut.

“I don’t have any religious issue not to buy capacity from SpaceX, they’re a very reliable rocket, but the Falcon 9 economically wasn’t the best rocket for us,” Limp explained.

Asked whether Amazon would consider owning a rocket system to support its launches, Limp said, “I would never say never to a question like that” but that the company looks for acquisitions in areas “where you can have something that’s differentiated and it’s something where it’s not well-served.”

Limp noted that it’s a different scenario than something like “Prime Air,” the company’s cargo airline, as that was a situation in which the company’s forecast for e-commerce growth was higher than transportation providers like FedEx or UPS or USPS believed.

“We were just using a lot of the excess capacity … only then when it stopped becoming well served did we look at it,” Limp said. “There was a shift in it being well-served for our needs. Right now, I don’t see that from a rocket perspective. There is a lot of launch out there.”

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#Amazon #shows #satellite #internet #antennas #takes #SpaceXs #Starlink

When we’ll be able to 3D-print organs and who will be able to afford them | CNN

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CNN
 — 

What if doctors could just print a kidney, using cells from the patient, instead of having to find a donor match and hope the patient’s body doesn’t reject the transplanted kidney?

The soonest that could happen is in a decade, thanks to 3D organ bioprinting, said Jennifer Lewis, a professor at Harvard University’s Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering. Organ bioprinting is the use of 3D-printing technologies to assemble multiple cell types, growth factors and biomaterials in a layer-by-layer fashion to produce bioartificial organs that ideally imitate their natural counterparts, according to a 2019 study.

This type of regenerative medicine is in the development stage, and the driving force behind this innovation is “real human need,” Lewis said.

In the United States, there are 106,800 men, women and children on the national organ transplant waiting list as of March 8, 2023, according to the Health Resources & Services Administration. However, living donors provide only around 6,000 organs per year on average, and there are about 8,000 deceased donors annually who each provide 3.5 organs on average.

The cause of this discrepancy is “a combination of people who undergo catastrophic health events, but their organs aren’t high enough quality to donate, or they’re not on the organ donor list to begin with, and the fact that it’s actually very difficult to find a good match” so the patient’s body doesn’t reject the transplanted organ, Lewis said.

And even though living donors are an option, “to do surgery on someone who doesn’t need it” is a big risk, said Dr. Anthony Atala, director of the Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine. “So, living related donors are usually not the preferred way to go because then you’re taking an organ away from somebody else who may need it, especially now as we age longer.”

Atala and his colleagues were responsible for growing human bladders in a lab by hand in 2006, and implanting a complicated internal organ into people for the first time — saving the lives of three children in whom they implanted the bladders.

Every day, 17 people die waiting for an organ transplant, according to the Health Resources & Services Administration. And every 10 minutes, another person is added to the waitlist, the agency says. More than 90% of the people on the transplant list in 2021 needed a kidney.

“About a million people worldwide are in need of a kidney. So they have end-stage renal failure, and they have to go on dialysis,” Lewis said. “Once you go on dialysis, you have essentially five years to live, and every year, your mortality rate increases by 15%. Dialysis is very hard on your body. So this is really motivating to take on this grand challenge of printing organs.”

“Anti-hypertensive pills are not scarce. Everybody who needs them can get them,” Martine Rothblatt, CEO and chairman of United Therapeutics, said in June 2022 at the Life Itself conference, a health and wellness event presented in partnership with CNN. United Therapeutics was one of the conference sponsors.

“There is no practical reason why anybody who needs a kidney — or a lung, a heart, a liver — should not be able to get one,” she added. “We’re using technology to solve this problem.”

To begin the process of bioprinting an organ, doctors typically start with a patient’s own cells. They take a small needle biopsy of an organ or do a minimally invasive surgical procedure that removes a small piece of tissue, “less than half the size of a postage stamp,” Atala said. “By taking this small piece of tissue, we are able to tease cells apart (and) we grow and expand the cells outside the body.”

This growth happens inside a sterile incubator or bioreactor, a pressurized stainless steel vessel that helps the cells stay fed with nutrients — called “media” — the doctors feed them every 24 hours, since cells have their own metabolism, Lewis said. Each cell type has a different media, and the incubator or bioreactor acts as an oven-like device mimicking the internal temperature and oxygenation of the human body, Atala said.

“Then we mix it with this gel, which is like a glue,” Atala said. “Every organ in your body has the cells and the glue that holds it together. Basically, that’s also called ‘extracellular matrix.’”

This glue is Atala’s nickname for bioink, a printable mixture of living cells, water-rich molecules called hydrogels, and the media and growth factors that help the cells continue to proliferate and differentiate, Lewis said. The hydrogels mimic the human body’s extracellular matrix, which contains substances including proteins, collagen and hyaluronic acid.

The non-cell sample portion of the glue can be made in a lab, and “is going to have the same properties of the tissue you’re trying to replace,” Atala said.

The biomaterials used typically have to be nontoxic, biodegradable and biocompatible to avoid a negative immune response, Lewis said. Collagen and gelatin are two of the most common biomaterials used for bioprinting tissues or organs.

From there, doctors load each bioink — depending on how many cell types they’re wanting to print — into a printing chamber, “using a printhead and nozzle to extrude an ink and build the material up layer by layer,” Lewis said. Creating tissue with personalized properties is enabled by printers being programmed with a patient’s imaging data from X-rays or scans, Atala said.

“With a color printer you have several different cartridges, and each cartridge is printing a different color, and you come up with your (final) color,” Atala added. Bioprinting is the same; you’re just using cells instead of traditional inks.

How long the printing process takes depends on several factors, including the organ or tissue being printed, the fineness of the resolution and the number of printheads needed, Lewis said. But it typically lasts a few to several hours. The time from the biopsy to the implantation is about four to six weeks, Atala said.

A 3D printer seeds different types of cells onto a kidney scaffold at the Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine.

The ultimate challenge is “getting the organs to actually function as they should,” so accomplishing that “is the holy grail,” Lewis said.

“Just like if you were to harvest an organ from a donor, you have to immediately get that organ into a bioreactor and start perfusing it or the cells die,” she added. To perfuse an organ is to supply it with fluid, usually blood or a blood substitute, by circulating it through blood vessels or other channels.

Depending on the organ’s complexity, there is sometimes a need to mature the tissue further in a bioreactor or further drive connections, Lewis said. “There’s just a number of plumbing issues and challenges that have to be done in order to make that printed organ actually function like a human organ would in vivo (meaning in the body). And honestly, this has not been fully solved yet.”

Once a bioprinted organ is implanted into a patient, it will naturally degrade over time — which is OK since that’s how it’s designed to work.

“You’re probably wondering, ‘Well, then what happens to the tissue? Will it fall apart?’ Actually, no,” Atala said. “These glues dissolve, and the cells sense that the bridge is giving way; they sense that they don’t have a firm footing anymore. So cells do what they do in your very own body, which is to create their own bridge and create their own glue.”

Atala and Lewis are conservative in their estimates about the number of years remaining before fully functioning bioprinted organs can be implanted into humans.

“The field’s moving fast, but I mean, I think we’re talking about a decade plus, even with all of the tremendous progress that’s been made,” Lewis said.

“I learned so many years ago never to predict because you’ll always be wrong,” Atala said. “There’s so many factors in terms of manufacturing and the (US Food and Drug Administration regulation). At the end of the day, our interest, of course, is to make sure the technologies are safe for the patient above all.”

Whenever bioprinting organs becomes an available option, affordability for patients and their caregivers shouldn’t be an issue.

They’ll be “accessible for sure,” Atala said. “The costs associated with organ failures are very high. Just to keep a patient on dialysis is over a quarter of a million dollars per year, just to keep one patient on dialysis. So, it’s a lot cheaper to create an organ that you can implant into the patient.”

The average kidney transplant cost was $442,500 in 2020, according to research published by the American Society of Nephrology — while 3D printers retail for around a few thousand dollars to upward of $100,000, depending on their complexity. But even though low-cost printers are available, pricey parts of bioprinting can include maintaining cell banks for patients, culturing cells and safely handling biological materials, Lewis said.

Some of the major costs of current organ transplantation are “harvesting the organ from the donor, the transport costs and then, of course, the surgery that the recipient goes through, and then all the care and monitoring,” Lewis said. “Some of that cost would still be in play, even if it was bioprinted.”

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How human gene editing is moving on after the CRISPR baby scandal | CNN

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For most of her life, Victoria Gray, a 37-year-old mother of four from Mississippi, had experienced excruciating bouts of pain.

Born with the blood disorder sickle cell disease, lengthy hospital stays and debilitating fatigue disrupted her childhood, forcing her to quit pursuing a college nursing degree and take potent and addictive painkillers.

“The pain I would feel in my body was like being struck by lightning and hit by a freight train all at once,” she said this week at the Third International Summit on Human Genome Editing in London.

In 2019, she received an experimental treatment for the inherited disease that used the gene-editing technique CRISPR-Cas9, which allowed doctors to make very precise changes to her DNA. While the procedure itself was grueling and took seven to eight months to fully recover from, she said it has transformed her life.

“The feeling is amazing. I really feel that I’m cured now,” Gray said. “Because I no longer have to face the battles that I faced on a day-to-day (basis). I came from having to have an in-home caregiver to help me take baths, clean my house and care for my children. Now I do all those things on my own.”

She’s now able to enjoy a life she once felt was passing her by. She holds down a full-time job as a Walmart cashier, and she’s able to attend her children’s football games and cheerleading events and enjoy family outings. “The life I felt I was just existing in I’m now thriving in,” she said.

Gray shared her experience with doctors, scientists, patient advocates and bioethicists who gathered in London for the human genome editing summit, at which participants reported on advances made in the field and debated the thorny ethical issues posed by the cutting-edge technology.

“I’m here really to be a light because there’s mixed feelings about gene editing. And I think people can see the positive result of it. You know that a person who was once suffering in life, was miserable, now is able to be a part of life and enjoy it,” Gray told CNN.

Gray’s uplifting story, which received a standing ovation from the audience, stood in contrast to a presentation made the last time the conference was held, in Hong Kong in 2018, when Chinese doctor He Jiankui stunned his peers and the world with the revelation that he had created the world’s first gene-edited babies.

The two girls grew from embryos He had modified using CRISPR-Cas9, which he said would make them resistant to HIV. His work was widely condemned by the scientific community, which decried the experiment as medically unnecessary and ethically irresponsible. He received a three-year jail sentence in 2019.

Questions about the baby scandal still linger more than four years later, and after being recently released from prison, He is reportedly seeking to continue his work. China has tightened its regulation of experimental biomedical research since 2018, but it hasn’t gone far enough, said Joy Zhang, a medical sociologist at the University of Kent in the United Kingdom.

“Ethical governance in practice is still confined to traditional medical, scientific, as well as educational, establishments. The new measures fail to directly address how privately funded research and other … ventures will be monitored,” Zhang said at the conference.

Ethically questionable experimental research isn’t an issue confined to China, said Robin Lovell-Badge, head of the Laboratory of Stem Cell Biology and Developmental Genetics at the Francis Crick Institute in London, who chaired the 2018 Hong Kong conference session in which He attempted to defend his work.

“(He Jiankui) is not the only concern in this area. One of our big concerns I always have is the possibility that there will be rogue companies, rogue scientists setting up to do genome editing in an inappropriate way,” Lovell-Badge said on Monday at the conference.

Gray shared her story at Monday's conference.

While the CRISPR baby scandal tarnished the technology’s reputation, CRISPR-Cas9 and related techniques have made a major impact on biomedical research, and two scientists behind the tool — Emmanuelle Charpentier and Jennifer A. Doudna — won a Nobel prize for their work in 2020.

“Clinical trial results demonstrate that CRISPR is safe, and it’s effective for treating and curing human disease — an extraordinary advance given the technology is only 10 years old,” Doudna said at the conference in a video address. “It’s important with a powerful technology like this to grapple with the challenges of responsible use.”

In addition to the sickle cell trial that includes Gray, clinical trials are also underway to test the safety of gene editing in treating several other conditions, including a related blood disorder called beta thalassemia; leber congenital amaurosis, which is a form of inherited childhood blindness; blood cancers such as leukemia and lymphoma; type 1 diabetes; and HIV/AIDS.

DNA acts as a instruction manual for life on our planet, and CRISPR-Cas9 can target sites in plant and animal cells using guide RNA to get the Cas-9 enzyme to a more precise spot on a strand of DNA. This allows scientists to change DNA by knocking out a particular gene or inserting new genetic material at a predetermined site in the strand.

People with sickle cell disease have abnormal hemoglobin in red blood cells that can cause them to get hard and sticky, clogging blood flow in small vessels.

In the trial that Gray was part of, doctors increased the production of a different kind of hemoglobin, known as fetal hemoglobin, which makes it harder for cells to sickle and stick together. The process is invasive and involves removing premature cells from the bone marrow and modifying them — by using CRISPR-Cas9 in the lab — to eventually produce fetal hemoglobin. The patient has to undergo a round of chemotherapy before receiving the gene-edited cells to ensure the body doesn’t reject them.

The conference also shed light on new, more sophisticated gene-editing techniques, such as prime editing and base editing, which recently was used to modify immune cells and successfully treat a teen with treatment-resistant leukemia.

These next generation techniques will allow humans “to have some say in the sequence of our genomes so we are no longer so beholden to the misspellings in our DNA,” said David Liu, the Richard Merkin professor and director of the Merkin Institute of Transformative Technologies in Healthcare at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard University.

The gene therapy trials currently underway involve treating people who were born with a certain disease or condition by altering non-reproductive cells in what’s known as somatic gene editing.

The next frontier — many would say red line — is heritable gene editing: altering the genetic material in human sperm, eggs or embryos so that it can be safely passed onto the next generation. The goal would be to prevent babies from inheriting genetic diseases.

A researcher handles a petri dish while observing a CRISPR/Cas9 process through a stereomicroscope at the Max-Delbrueck-Centre for Molecular Medicine in 2018.

“It’s a very different set of ethical trade-offs when you’re not a treating disease in an existing individual but you’re in fact preventing an individual yet to be born from suffering from a disease. That’s a very different set of considerations,” said George Daley, Caroline Shields Walker Professor of Medicine and dean of the faculty of medicine at Harvard Medical School.

In a statement released at the end of the conference, the organizers said “heritable human genome editing remains unacceptable at this time.”

They added that public discussion and policy debates should continue and were important for resolving whether this technology should be used.

The hope offered by gene therapy is creating fresh ethical storms — primarily over who gets access to such treatments. The therapy Gray received, which is expected to soon receive regulatory approval, is likely to cost more than $2 million per person, putting it out of reach for many who need it in the United States and in low-income countries.

“If we want to be serious about equitable access to these kinds of therapies, we have to start talking early on about ways to develop them and make them available and make them cost effective and sustainable,” said Alta Charo, the Warren P. Knowles Professor Emerita of Law and Bioethics at the University of Wisconsin at Madison.

Researchers want to develop CRISPR therapies that can be delivered though an injection rather than the chemotherapy and invasive bone marrow transplant Gray went through.

Worldwide, more than 300,000 children are born with sickle cell disease every year, over 75% of whom live in sub-Saharan Africa, where screening programs and treatment options are limited.

Even relatively affordable drugs to treat sickle cell disease, such as hydroxyurea, don’t reach everyone who needs them in India, said Gautam Dongre, the secretary of the National Alliance of Sickle Cell Organizations in India and father of two children with sickle cell disease.

“After 40 years if these drugs aren’t reachable for the common people, then what about gene therapy?” Dongre asked at the conference.

Julie Makani, an associate professor in the department of haematology and blood transfusion at Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences in Tanzania, said more genomic research should take place in Africa.

“The ultimate thing for me, particularly as a physician scientist, is not just discovery, but also seeing the application of knowledge…into (an) improvement in health,” Makani said.

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GoFundMe fundraisers for college tuition are up by more than 50% over last year

College students are increasingly turning to crowdfunding to help cover their education expenses, according to new data from the fundraising platform GoFundMe.

GoFundMe fundraisers for tuition money are up more than 50% compared to last year, and both college and trade school fundraising are up 30%, a GoFundMe spokesperson said.

The rise in students seeking donations comes as the cost of higher education is in the national spotlight. The U.S. Supreme Court this week heard arguments in two cases involving President Joe Biden’s stalled student-loan cancellation plan, which could help an estimated 40 million borrowers erase up to $20,000 each in student-loan debt.

The average published price for tuition, fees, room and board at a four-year private college is $53,430 for the 2022-23 school year, up from $51,690 in 2021-22, according to the College Board’s Trends in College Pricing and Student Aid report

Tuition and fees at four-year private colleges are 4.5 times higher than they were in 1992-93. For in-state students at public four-year universities, the average published tuition, fees, room and board for 2022-23 is $23,520, up from $22,700 in the previous year.

Changes in the published price, or sticker price, “tend to garner the most media attention,” the College Board said in its report. “However, it is important to note that the majority of undergraduate students do not pay the full sticker price.” 

College tuition hasn’t risen as fast as other prices amid roaring inflation, but higher education remains unaffordable in the U.S., and has been for a long time, said Robert Kelchen, a higher education professor at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. The uptick in tuition-related GoFundMe campaigns is another sign that concern about college affordability is now “front and center” in Americans’ consciousness, more than it was five or 10 years ago, Kelchen said.

While schools have kept tuition increases relatively low over the past few years, other costs associated with college have shot up, especially living expenses, he noted. “Housing, dining, things like that, whether you’re on campus or off, they’ve both gotten more expensive,” Kelchen said.

Students use a combination of their own money, grants (which don’t have to be repaid), and loans to cover their education bills. More than half (54%) of bachelor’s degree recipients graduated with debt in 2020-21, and the average debt was $29,100, according to the College Board.

Reducing the financial burden

Reducing the financial burden created by higher education would require one or both of two major changes, Kelchen said. “You either have to give students more money to go to college, or you have to try to make providing an education less expensive, so spend less money per student on education.” He added, “It’s the same issue we run into with healthcare. The cost of providing it has gone up, and people don’t want to pay it. It’s expensive.”

The parallel to healthcare costs is relevant in the context of GoFundMe: people often turn to the platform for help paying medical bills, often after a surprise diagnosis or accident. Similar to how GoFundMe campaigns serve as financial Band-Aids for systemic issues, canceling student-loan debt would be a “temporary fix” that would not solve the root causes of why students take out debt, Kelchen noted.

GoFundMe promotes itself as a solution for cash-strapped students, referring to itself as “the leader in online education fundraising” on its site. It says it hosts more than 100,000 education fundraisers per year, raising more than $70 million annually. GoFundMe offers tips on how to host a successful fundraiser for college costs, suggesting that students promote their fundraiser to alumni of their school and share their “hopes and aspirations” in their fundraiser story.

Students considering using crowdfunding for college costs should first make sure they understand how their school will treat the money when calculating their financial aid package, said Karen McCarthy, vice president for public policy and federal relations at the National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators. Donations made to personal GoFundMe fundraisers are generally considered to be “personal gifts” which, for the most part, are not taxed as income in the United States, a  GoFundMe spokesperson said. GoFundMe charges a transaction fee of 2.9% + $0.30 per donation. 

Students who’ve sought donations on GoFundMe recently include a Sacramento nursing student who said she needed to pay off a $4,600 balance before she could take her exit exam and graduate from her program; a sophomore art student in Santa Fe who said an “unexpected circumstance” left him with a $3,176 fee bill; and a student looking for $3,800 to finish her culinary degree at a Virginia community college.

Several of the tuition-related campaigns on GoFundMe appear to be for students in financial straits because of unanticipated setbacks. One silver lining of the pandemic is that colleges and universities have become more equipped to help students cope with such financial emergencies, McCarthy said. That’s because when federal pandemic relief money was flowing to college campuses, schools handed out emergency grants to students. In tracking how the money was spent, schools learned a lot about the types of surprise costs that can sometimes force students to drop out of college, McCarthy said.

Pandemic relief money is gone now, but some schools have set up their own emergency grant funds to help students bridge sudden financial gaps. “A lot of institutions really became aware of the emergency needs that their students have and how they might move forward in meeting those needs,” McCarthy said. “The development of some of those emergency-aid programs may help students meet those needs so they don’t have to resort to things like crowdfunding.”

See also: This 72-year-old hopes to retire one day — as soon as she raises enough money on GoFundMe

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Armed with new tech, families track down Mexico’s missing

It takes painstaking leg work — grieving mothers knocking door to door with photos and bereft wives scouring mass graves for clues. Now victims of Mexico’s missing persons crisis can also use technology to track down their loved ones.

From chatbots to mass texts, social media to online guides, tech has transformed the painful hunt that thousands of Mexicans must undertake to find a ransomed relative. Or unearth their corpse.

“Technology is how we learn from cases around the country; we come together to share experiences and provide guidance to other families,” said Maricel Torres, whose son was kidnapped in 2011 at the age of 17.

A dozen years later and Ms. Torres remains in limbo. From her son’s kidnap, however, came hope for others.

After the teenager vanished, Ms. Torres spent all her days — and sleepless nights — riding cabs around Poza Rica, a city in the eastern state of Veracruz, going house by house for any clues to the whereabouts of her missing son.

All she knew was that on the night of May 25, 2011, Iván Eduardo Castillo Torres went out for tacos with friends then was kidnapped off the street by members of the local police force.

Giving chase was a lonely task for Ms. Torres, who said she felt abandoned by the authorities and sidelined by society.

“I looked for him in every town, house by house, in every public market and every church. But I found no answers; only people who sought to extort us,” she said.

The Torres family used all its savings to pay people who claimed to be the kidnappers or said they had information on his whereabouts. The last time she paid someone for information, she was told her son had been murdered and his remains dissolved.

But a decade on and some things have changed, even if the crisis of Mexico’s missing has only grown worse.

More than 40 collectives — made up of families who have lost a relative — are now using tech to kickstart mass searches and do so within hours of a disappearance to increase life chances.

The same apps, online templates and chat groups are also used to pressure police and officials into more speedy action.

The collective that Ms. Torres launched — Familias en Búsqueda María Herrera Poza Rica (Families in Search María Herrera Poza Rica) — relies on social media to organise relatives of the missing and coordinate search operations in the Veracruz state.

Her group has found execution sites and illegal graves belonging to criminal groups — a job the authorities should be tackling with vigor given the number of missing persons topped 110,000 past year, a 3,207% increase since 2006.

Instead, the search is mostly pursued by ordinary Mexicans, largely women, who band together to scour the country for illegal mass graves hidden in mountains, wasteland or dry lakes.

The government, too, is using tech to track the missing – from a national DNA database to AI software that seeks out patterns in documents and databases which hold clues on the location of the missing.

The National Search Commission, which coordinates federal and local efforts to search for the missing, did not reply to a request for comment.

Missing Mexicans

As the crisis worsens, civil society groups have launched digital platforms to help Mexicans take immediate legal action and speed up what tends to be an arduous, slow process.

In January, human rights organisation Centro Prodh released No Somos Expedientes (We are not files), a website that tells families exactly what to do if a person goes missing and how to follow up on a case.

“In a country with dozens of thousands of missing persons, we assume that everyone knows what to do. The truth is that nobody should know what to do, as the responsibility belongs to the authorities,” María Luisa Aguilar, coordinator at Centro Prodh, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Families, however, often face obstacles from local authorities who are charged with leading missing person cases.

She said authorities are often late to launch any search, fail to notify families of breakthroughs or neglect to carry out the basics of an investigation.

Last year, the Mexican government announced investments in human and material resources around the country to improve the searching capacities of local authorities.

The No Somos Expedientes website tells families what they can demand within the first hours of a disappearance, be it official analysis of social media, phone tracking or a review of local CCTV footage.

The platform also provides templates of legal documents that families can use to press officialdom and gather evidence.

It shows families how to make authorities follow up on tips and search for illegal graves, or report their case to human rights commissions and so pressure police into greater action.

“The platform does not substitute the actions of the government or the families’ right to have quality legal advice. However, we think it is useful for those families who don’t have access to that,” said Ms. Aguilar.

Three other non-profits last year banded together to set up SocorroBot, a WhatsApp chatbot that shows distraught families how to file a missing person report and explains what to do should they come upon corrupt police or military.

“These platforms have been important for us to learn about our rights. They help defend ourselves better to the authorities,” said Ms. Torres.

In 2022, after Mexico reached the 100,000 missing persons’ mark, the United Nations called on the Mexican government to fight impunity, as sentencing has only followed in 35 cases.

Networks

Along with offering tips and how-to guides, tech has become the main tool for families to coordinate what are often messy searches that were once full of holes or fat with duplication.

Facebook and Twitter have for years been used to promote the name and face of missing Mexicans, with photos of lost loved ones now a common on social media.

Last year, missing teenager Debanhi Escobar went viral after family and friends turned to social media. Following a review of CCTV footage, authorities found the 18-year-old’s beaten corpse in a cistern near where she had last been seen. Eager to discover the fate of their relatives, Torres said, the collectives map out specific regions in the country that may hide illegal graves or execution sites formerly used by criminal groups.

“That is how we discovered one of the largest cemeteries in the region, where we found fragments of bodies that still need to be identified,” said Ms. Torres.

Years of experience have taught families like hers how to identify grave sites and to distinguish human from animal bones.

“They have learned to read Google Maps… to use GPS to locate coordinates, to keep photographic records,” said Jesús Peña, representative of the United Nation’s human rights office at a recent press conference.

Such advances, however, are lost on many in Mexico, where rural poverty and digital illiteracy keep millions cut off from the technical advances that might help them uncover loved ones.

“We still need to get to those places where people do not have Internet and disappearances are rampant, and give them the guidance they can’t get,” said Ms. Torres.

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I asked ChatGPT to help me plan a vacation. Here’s what happened next

Some people love travel planning.

But I am not one of those people.

So the idea that artificial intelligence chatbots, such as ChatGPT and Bing, can research travel destinations and create itineraries is intriguing.

But I’m skeptical too.

Do recommendations just scratch the surface — for example, suggesting that I see the Eiffel Tower in Paris? Or can they recommend lesser-known restaurants and handle specific hotel requests too?

The answer is: yes and no — at least for ChatGPT.

Unfortunately, I couldn’t test Bing. When I tried to access it, I was put on a waiting list. The website said I could “get ahead in the line” if I set Microsoft defaults on my computer and scanned a QR code to install the Bing app. I did both. I’m still waiting.

ChatGPT was easier. I went to the developer’s website, clicked on the word “ChatGPT,” registered for an account — and started chatting.

‘Can you help me plan a beach trip?’

“Of course!” replied ChatGPT. But first, I needed to tell it about my interests, budget and how long I planned to be away.

I’m looking for a week-long beach trip in mid-March to spend time with my family, with no set budget, I typed.

“Sounds like a wonderful idea!” it replied, before recommending Hawaii, the Caribbean — specifically the Bahamas, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic — Florida and Costa Rica, along with details about the weather and popular attractions for each.

Nice. But I live in Singapore, I said.

“I see!” it exclaimed. (ChatGPT loves exclamation points.) In that case, Bali, Indonesia; Langkawi, Malaysia; and Phuket and Krabi in Thailand were better choices.

ChatGPT is nothing if not apologetic.

Cost estimates for each hotel were more accurate. But ChatGPT couldn’t show photographs of the hotels or help book them — although it did provide ample instructions on how to do both.

By road or by rail?

Flights

ChatGPT can name airlines that connect cities, but it can’t give current flight information or help book flights.  

It wasn’t able to tell me the cheapest fare — or any fare — from London to New York this spring because it doesn’t “have access to real-time pricing information,” it said.

In fact, ChatGPT data ends at September 2021; it doesn’t “know” anything that’s happened since.

However, the bot could answer which month the London-to-New York route is usually the cheapest, which it said is “January and February, or during the shoulder season months of March and November.”

As for the best airline in the world, it said: “As an AI language model, I cannot have personal preferences or opinions.” But it went on to name the top five airlines named to Skytrax’s “World’s Top 100 Airlines” in 2021.

The list wasn’t correct.

The list provided by ChatGPT appears to be Skytrax’s airline ranking from 2019 instead.  

“Where should I eat?”

Specific questions

I had many more questions for ChatGPT, such as:

“How should I spend five days in South Africa?”
“Which chateaux accept visitors in Bordeaux?”
“If I only have one day in London, what should I do?”
“Which rides have the longest lines at Disney World?”

But before I could, my screen said “Access denied” alongside an “error code 1020” message.

This error may be caused by overloaded servers or by exceeding the daily limit, according to the tech website Stealth Optional. Either way, all of my previous chats were inaccessible, a huge negative for travelers in the middle of the planning process.

A new window didn’t fix the problem, but opening one in “incognito mode” did. Once in, I clicked on “Upgrade to Plus,” which showed that the free plan is available when demand is low, but for $20 per month, the “Plus plan” gives access to ChatGPT all the time, faster responses and priority to use new features.

With access again, I quickly asked about wait times on Disney World rides, a subject which I had spoken to luxury travel advisor Jonathan Alder of Jonathan’s Travels about last week. Alder lives close to the park and has lost count of how many times he’s visited, he said. Yet, only one of their answers — Epcot’s “Frozen Ever After” — overlapped.

ChatGPT mentioned that FastPass and Genie+ can reduce wait times at Disney World, which is partly right. The company phased out its “skip the line” virtual queue FastPass program when it introduced Genie+ in the fall of 2021.

The takeaway

ChatGPT is fast, chatty and feels like you’re interacting with a human. I found myself responding with unnecessary pleasantries — “Ok, sure” and “Thank you” — out of habit.

I could see how it could save travelers’ time, especially if they are looking for an overview or are at the early stages of planning.

But information will need to be current, of course — and bugs and error messages, which I faced several times in addition to the “1020” message mentioned above — will need to be fixed.

OpenAI states that the current ChatGPT version “is a free research preview.” It also says the system may “occasionally generate incorrect or misleading information” and that it’s “not intended to give advice.”

When I asked it about its travel planning abilities, it said it “can assist with many aspects of travel planning” but that it may not be able to “provide personalized advice based on your unique circumstances.”

My verdict: Travel agents’ jobs are secure for the time being.

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Beware the budget butt lift, regulators warn amid social media-inspired boom | CNN

In hindsight, Nikki Ruston said, she should have recognized the red flags.

The office in Miami where she scheduled what’s known as a Brazilian butt lift had closed and transferred her records to a different facility, she said. The price she was quoted – and paid upfront – increased the day of the procedure, and she said she did not meet her surgeon until she was about to be placed under general anesthesia.

“I was ready to walk out,” said Ruston, 44, of Lake Alfred in Central Florida. “But I had paid everything.”

A few days after the July procedure, Ruston was hospitalized due to infection, blood loss, and nausea, her medical records show.

“I went cheap. That’s what I did,” Ruston recalled recently. “I looked for the lowest price, and I found him on Instagram.”

People like Ruston are commonly lured to office-based surgery centers in South Florida through social media marketing that makes Brazilian butt lifts and other cosmetic surgery look deceptively painless, safe, and affordable, say researchers, patient advocates, and surgeon groups.

Unlike ambulatory surgery centers and hospitals, where a patient might stay overnight for observation after treatment, office-based surgery centers offer procedures that don’t typically require an inpatient stay and are regulated as an extension of a doctor’s private practice.

But such surgical offices are often owned by corporations that can offer discount prices by contracting with surgeons who are incentivized to work on as many patients per day as possible, in as little time as possible, according to state regulators and physicians critical of the facilities.

Ruston said she now lives with constant pain, but for other patients a Brazilian butt lift cost them their lives. After a rash of deaths, and in the absence of national standards, Florida regulators were the first in the nation to enact rules in 2019 meant to make the procedures safer. More than three years later, data shows deaths still occur.

Patient advocates and some surgeons – including those who perform the procedure themselves – anticipate the problem will only get worse. Emergency restrictions imposed by the state’s medical board in June expired in September, and the corporate business model popularized in Miami is spreading to other cities.

“We’re seeing entities that have a strong footprint in low-cost, high-volume cosmetic surgery, based in South Florida, manifesting in other parts of the country,” said Dr. Bob Basu, a vice president of the American Society of Plastic Surgeons and a practicing physician in Houston.

During a Brazilian butt lift, fat is taken via liposuction from other areas of the body – such as the torso, back, or thighs – and injected into the buttocks. More than 61,000 buttock augmentation procedures, both butt lifts and implants, were performed nationwide in 2021, a 37% increase from the previous year, according to data from the Aesthetic Society, a trade group of plastic surgeons.

As with all surgery, complications can occur. Miami-Dade County’s medical examiner has documented nearly three dozen cosmetic surgery patient deaths since 2009, of which 26 resulted from a Brazilian butt lift. In each case, the person died from a pulmonary fat embolism, when fat entered the bloodstream through veins in the gluteal muscles and stopped blood from flowing to the lungs.

No national reporting system nor insurance code tracks outcomes and patient demographics for a Brazilian butt lift. About 3% of surgeons worldwide had a patient die as a result of the procedure, according to a 2017 report from an Aesthetic Surgery Education and Research Foundation task force.

Medical experts said the problem is driven, in part, by having medical professionals like physician assistants and nurse practitioners perform key parts of the butt lift instead of doctors. It’s also driven by a business model that is motivated by profit, not safety, and incentivizes surgeons to exceed the number of surgeries outlined in their contracts.

In May, after a fifth patient in as many months died of complications in Miami-Dade County, Dr. Kevin Cairns proposed the state’s emergency rule to limit the number of butt lifts a surgeon could perform each day.

“I was getting sick of reading about women dying and seeing cases come before the board,” said Cairns, a physician and former member of the Florida Board of Medicine.

Some doctors performed as many as seven, according to disciplinary cases against surgeons prosecuted by the Florida Department of Health. The emergency rule limited them to no more than three, and required the use of an ultrasound to help surgeons lower the risk of a pulmonary fat clot.

But a group of physicians who perform Brazilian butt lifts in South Florida clapped back and formed Surgeons for Safety. They argued the new requirements would make the situation worse. Qualified doctors would have to do fewer procedures, they said, thus driving patients to dangerous medical professionals who don’t follow rules.

The group has since donated more than $350,000 to the state’s Republican Party, Republican candidates, and Republican political action committees, according to campaign contribution data from the Florida Department of State.

Surgeons for Safety declined KHN’s repeated interview requests. Although the group’s president, Dr. Constantino Mendieta, wrote in an August editorial that he agreed not all surgeons have followed the standard of care, he called the limits put on surgeons “arbitrary.” The rule sets “a historic precedent of controlling surgeons,” he said during a meeting with Florida’s medical board.

In January, Florida state Sen. Ileana Garcia, a Republican, filed a draft bill with the state legislature that proposes no limit on the number of Brazilian butt lifts a surgeon can perform in a day. Instead, it requires office surgery centers where the procedures are performed to staff one physician per patient and prohibits surgeons from working on more than one person at a time.

The bill would also allow surgeons to delegate some parts of the procedure to other clinicians under their direct supervision, and the surgeon must use an ultrasound.

Florida’s legislature convenes on March 7.

Consumers considering cosmetic procedures are urged to be cautious. Like Ruston, many people base their expectations on before-and-after photos and marketing videos posted on social media platforms such as Facebook, Snapchat, and Instagram.

“That’s very dangerous,” said Basu, of the American Society of Plastic Surgeons. “They’re excited about a low price and they forget about doing their homework,” he said.

The average price of a buttocks augmentation in 2021 was $4,000, according to data from the Aesthetic Society. But that’s only for the physician’s fee and does not cover anesthesia, operating room fees, prescriptions, or other expenses. A “safe” Brazilian butt lift, performed in an accredited facility and with proper aftercare, costs between $12,000 and $18,000, according to a recent article on the American Society of Plastic Surgeons’ website.

Although Florida requires a physician’s license to perform liposuction on patients who are under general anesthesia, it’s common in the medical field for midlevel medical practitioners, such as physician assistants and nurse practitioners, to do the procedure in office settings, according to Dr. Mark Mofid, who co-authored the 2017 Aesthetic Surgery Education and Research Foundation task force study.

By relying on staffers who don’t have the same specialty training and get paid less, office-based surgeons can complete more butt lifts per day and charge a lower price.

“They’re doing all of them simultaneously in three or four different rooms, and it’s being staffed by one surgeon,” said Mofid, a plastic surgeon in San Diego, who added that he does not perform more than one Brazilian butt lift in a day. “The surgeon isn’t doing the actual case. It’s assistants.”

Basu said patients should ask whether their doctor holds privileges to perform the same procedure at a hospital or ambulatory surgery center, which have stricter rules than office surgery centers in terms of who can perform butt lifts and how they should be done.

People in search of bargains are reminded that cosmetic surgery can have other serious risks beyond the deadly fat clots, such as infection and organ puncture, plus problems with the kidneys, heart, and lungs.

Ruston’s surgery was performed by a board-certified plastic surgeon she said she found on Instagram. She was originally quoted $4,995, which she said she paid in full before surgery. But when she arrived in Miami, she said, the clinic tacked on fees for liposuction and for post-surgical garments and devices.

“I ended up having to pay, like, $8,000,” Ruston said. A few days after Ruston returned home to Lake Alfred, she said, she started to feel dizzy and weak and called 911.

Paramedics took her to an emergency room, where doctors diagnosed her with anemia due to blood loss, and blood and abdominal infections, her medical records show.

“If I could go back in time,” she said, “I wouldn’t have had it done.”

KHN (Kaiser Health News) is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues. Together with Policy Analysis and Polling, KHN is one of the three major operating programs at KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation). KFF is an endowed nonprofit organization providing information on health issues to the nation.

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