Category: Stock

Break and Retest – Guide

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Break and Retest is one of our most complex indicators ever created with over 1,400 lines of coding. It’s easily one of the best strategy you can have in your trading tools because it’s based on pure price action!

⚠️ To make sure that Break and Retest works properly, here is what you need to see at the top left of your MT4 chart:
Health: Working Ok…
Status: Scanning for a Break & Retest entry…

What is Break and Retest? 

The key idea behind our Break and Retest strategy is to wait for the price to break through a support or resistance level, and then go back to that level, to retest it. Now, before entering the trade, our indicator looks for wick rejections indicating that traders are actively defending this retest level. After successfull wick rejections, we wait for the candle continuation to finally get buy & sell signals telling us to enter the trade! 

Usually when there is a trend, there is always retest levels before the market continues the trend. We wait for traders to reject the retest level to show us a sign that they want to continue with the trend and not break it. When we have several rejection signs at the retest level, we wait for the candle continuation to form before entering the market with a trade! Here is an example:

When we see that there is a continuation candle moving away from the retest zone in the direction of the main trend, we enter our trade! Once you enter the trade, you need to know your take profit and stop loss level. For our stop loss, we usually place our stop loss at the breakout candle that broke the support and became an new resistance zone. For our take profit, we usually place our take profit at the previous low or previous high candle. Here is an example:

Break and Retest Parameters

When you attach Break and Retest to a chart, here is the main settings that will pop-up. Find below the explanation of each input:

Break & Retest Settings

  • Max Lookback Break Candle For Broken Zones: 250 by default. How many previous break candles do you want the indicator to remember for a possible retest.
  • Minimum Candles Between Break And Retest: 8 by default. What is the minimum candles required between a break and a retest. Higher number gives more room for clear retests. 
  • Enable Confirmation Filter (Close Above/Below prev. High/Low): True by default. True means that when there is a retest, indicator waits for the confirmation candle after the wick rejection.
  • Use Fractal To Detect Swing (Late Entry): False by default. If set to true, after a retest, the entry signal will appear after several confirmation candles. Fractal means that we wait to have the highest high or lowest low of the candlesticks. This means that you will enter your trade after a late retest. 
  • Alert: True by default. When a new signal appears after a retest, you will get a notification for either buy or sell in your MT4 terminal.
  • Push: True by default. When a new signal appears after a retest, you get a push notification in your phone from the Metatrader 4 app.
  • color_brokenres: Blue by default. Here, you can change the color of your resistance zones. 
  • color_brokensup: Red by default. Here, you can change the color of your support zones.

Supply/Demand Settings

  • Max LookBack Candles For Support & Resistance: 250 by default. How many candles far back from the actual price do you want the indicator to memorize the support and resistance zones. It would make sense to lower this number if you’re trading on smaller timeframes and make it higher when you’re trading higher timeframes. However, 250 is a one size fits all solution for all timeframes so you don’t need to change that! 
  • Support & Resistance Sensitivity: 0.10 by default. This is the thickness of the support and resistance zones. If you want a thin line, you can lower the number to 0.07 per example. If you want a thick line, you can increase the number to 0.20 per example. We selected 0.10 by default because we personally feel like it’s the perfect line width. This parameter can definitely be tweaked for your trading purposes!

Tweaking the timeframes

The break and retest strategy works on any timeframe. By default, the indicator uses a max lookback of 250 candles and a break lookback of 250 candles which is a one size fits all solution for any timeframe. However, if you want to sharpen even more your trading skills, we recommend trying our set files (attached below) for each timeframe! Here is how it changes from the default settings:

  • M1: 50 candles
  • M5: 100 candles
  • M15: 150 candles
  • M30: 250 candles
  • H1: 250 candles
  • H4: 500 candles
  • D1: 1,000 candles
  • Weekly: 2,000 candles
  • Monthly: 4,000 candles 

In order to use the set file on each timeframe, you need to click on the load button in your indicator settings:

How to spot a good break and retest from a bad one?

When there is a retest that occurs on the support or resistance zone, you need to visually see that this new zone hasn’t been broken below or above the levels. If the zone is broken by candles or even wicks, this simply shows that the zones are not even good candidates for a retest. You wait for another setup. Here is an example between a good retest and a bad one:

  ✅ On the left side of the picture, this is a good retest because the new support zone hasn’t been broken before the retest alert. Yes there can be some consolidation candles around the retest zone, as long as these candles didn’t break the support or resistance zone. Consolidation is a good sign because it shows that traders are defending the current level. We wait for the continuation candle and then we enter the trade based on the alert given by the indicator.

 ⛔ On the right side of the picture, this is not a good retest. It’s a bad one because the resistance zone was already broken by several wicks before getting the retest alert. Even if the market went down, I wouldn’t enter this trade because I need to see a clear resistance zone that hasn’t been broken before the retest. It clears out any doubts regarding the level itself and makes you trade with more confidence! 

How to trade Break and Retest with the Trend?

If you want to be a master in trading, you need to remember that trend is always your friend! When a Break and Retest happens, you want to make sure that you’re on the right side. That’s where our Katana indicator comes in handy. Katana gives you the main trend by using moving averages. If Katana visually shows you an uptrend while Break and Retest gives you a buy signal, it’s the time to enter a trade thanks to these 2 powerful indicators! 
Here is an example:

Get Break and Retest here: https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/115398

Get Katana here: https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/74631

Thank you for reading our manual guide and please don’t hesitate to contact me if you have any questions!

Cheers,
Mo

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Could It Be This Simple? – Fat Tail Daily

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In today’s Fat Tail Daily, As the cycle shifts to the energy sector, there could be an opportunity in certain kinds of technology stocks too. Read on to find out more…

I came across an interesting chart this week.

Check it out:

You can see the clear cycles in play.

From 1990 to 2000, tech stocks were the place to be.

After the ‘dot com’ bust, energy stocks performed much better until the GFC panic of 2008.

Tech then resumed its dominance until another crisis – this time, Covid – hit in 2019.

See that slight uptick over the past few years?

It’s early days, but if this pattern holds, energy could be the theme to follow over the next few years.

Could investing be this simple?

Perhaps.

But as a tech investor, I see an exciting way to invest through this, no matter what sector dominates…

Investing at the intersection

Governments the world over are trying to brute force a once-in-a-lifetime change to our entire energy system.

The goal is to achieve zero net carbon emissions (net zero), and fully electrify the system.

Whether this is anywhere near achievable in the time scales aimed for is a big question up for debate right now.

And some of my more sceptical colleagues think the world will continue to run on fossil fuels for a lot longer.

If you agree with that line of thinking, then you should be looking out for any opportunities that arise in the oil, coal and natural gas sectors.

I know our contrarian-in-chief, Greg Canavan, has some gas and coal plays in his Fat Tail Advisory portfolio right now.

On the other hand, our resident geologist, James Cooper, thinks copper and aluminium demand is set to soar as transmission lines are repurposed for a grid dominated by renewables.

He’s got some very interesting mining stock ideas based on that here.

But my beat is technology.

And on that front I think there could be some very exciting opportunities at the intersection of technology and energy.

I’m talking about energy tech stocks!

With that in mind, let’s look at several opportunities to ride a potential incoming ‘energy-led cycle’ – but with a tech twist…

Three ways to invest in energy tech

First up…

Small Modular Nuclear Reactors (SMRs).

Depending on who you listen to, they’re either the next big thing, or a pie in the sky fantasy.

So which is it?

I’ll get to that in a second, but first let’s look at how these SMRs work

As the name implies, SMRs work like regular nuclear fission reactors but on a smaller scale.

SMRs are a cheaper option for nuclear power and are seen as a safe alternative to traditional large-scale power plants.

They still use uranium as the ‘fuel’ to generate heat, though some advanced options are researching other options, such as thorium and even metallic fuels.

Of course, like regular nuclear plants, they’re a very green power source.

According to the WEF, there are 50 SMR concepts on the go globally with four at an advanced stage.

Argentina is building the CAREM reactor, which will generate 25MW of power. China is building the Linglon One reactor, which will produce 125MW.

And Russia has two SMRs under construction.

The much-publicised NuScale project in the US was mothballed last year, citing funding issues.

That has been highlighted by the naysayers a lot in recent times.

But I think this is a powerful technology that will be part of our energy future, and it’s definitely a trend worth following.

As an investor, this can mean looking for stocks aligned with constructing or running such plants or even just uranium miners in general.

Next up…

Bitcoin Mining!

Yes, I know I bang on a lot about Bitcoin.

But I bet you didn’t know that Bitcoin mining is very, very good for incentivising the rollout of renewable energy projects.

As Kiwi clean energy entrepreneur Daniel Batten wrote recently:

‘Just as NASA catalysed years of R&D into photovoltaics, Bitcoin mining is now catalysing R&D into an important form of baseload renewable energy technology that would otherwise have been cost prohibitive.’

The key thing to realise is that, unlike fossil fuel-powered plants, you can’t just turn renewable energy on or off.

Power will be produced when the Sun is shining, the wind is blowing, or the waves are rolling in.

But that can mean an imbalance between energy supply and demand at certain times.

Long-term, that will mean more batteries to store excess energy, but at the level of the entire grid, that could be decades away from being realistic.

Right now, the best option to manage this equation are Bitcoin miners.

Bitcoin miners are the ultimate partners in flexible demand.

Not only do they allow renewable power to balance itself out, but also provide additional revenue streams to fund the build out of renewable energy infrastructure itself.

There’s a wonderful company operating in Africa called Gridless that uses Bitcoin mining to help fund power plants for many communities in rural Africa.

Unbelievably, there’s 770 million people in the world without access to electricity; many of them in Africa.

Gridless wants to help fix that.

As a piece last year interestingly noted:

‘Gridless wasn’t born with a focus on bringing bitcoin mining to rural Africans. The company’s main aim was to offer affordable energy through microgrids.

‘Bitcoin just uniquely enabled that capability.’

Despite years of fake news on this subject, the world is slowly starting to recognise the reality.

As a piece in Forbes Magazine recently wrote:

‘The synergy between renewable energy initiatives and bitcoin represents major opportunities towards sustainable technological advancement. This integration opens new pathways for sustainability and enhances economic viability of renewable energy projects.

‘Companies like OceanBit and Sazmining show how this partnership can drive innovation and foster environmental stewardship.’

All these companies mentioned above are private companies – so you can’t invest in them directly.

Owning some Bitcoin gives you exposure to the overall Bitcoin eco-system.

And while Bitcoin carries risk and is highly volatile, I strongly suggest everyone should add a small stack to their overall portfolio for the long term.

There are also a number of Bitcoin miners listed on US markets you can invest in, including IREN, a Bitcoin mining and AI (Artificial Intelligence) data centre company run by two Aussie brothers.

They’re doing some really exciting stuff.

Talking about AI…

I’m running out of space today, but AI also has the potential to be a force in the energy market – as well as a huge user of energy itself.

As time is short, I’ll leave you to mull over this quote from the International Energy Agency (IEA):

‘It is therefore unsurprising that the energy sector is taking early steps to harness the power of AI to boost efficiency and accelerate innovation.

‘The technology is uniquely placed to support the simultaneous growth of smart grids and the massive quantities of data they generate. Smart meters produce and send several thousand times more data points to utilities than their analogue predecessors.

‘New devices for monitoring grid power flows funnel more than an order of magnitude more data to operators than the technologies they are replacing. And the global fleet of wind turbines is estimated to produce more than 400 billion data points per year.’

Things are changing on the energy front, that much is certain.

How can you take advantage of it?

That’s the trillion dollar question…

Good investing,

Ryan Dinse Signature

Ryan Dinse,
Editor, Crypto Capital and Alpha Tech Trader

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#Simple #Fat #Tail #Daily

Fundamental Analysis Of Crisil – Future Plans, Financials And More

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Fundamental Analysis Of Crisil: Credit rating agency brings in more clarity and transparency by researching the creditworthiness of the company. These organizations undertake an extensive research of the companies and industries and determine where does the company stand compared to its peers.

Out of the many organizations, we have picked the biggest player- Crisil Ltd. In this article, we will perform a fundamental analysis of Crisil and look at the future prospects of the company.

Fundamental Analysis Of Crisil – Company Overview 

Crisil is a globally diversified analytical company whose main task is to provide ratings after an in-depth analysis and they do provide policy advisory services. The majority of the company is owned by S&P Global Inc which is the top credit rating provider in the world.

The company helps in providing transformative solutions that are highly essential for the organization in their process of making decisions. Crisil is India’s premium rating agency which has successfully been able to rate 35,000 and more companies ranging from large and medium scale businesses.

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Crisil is one of the foremost rating agencies in providing strategic benchmarking, with a client base of 300+ globally. In terms of reach, the company has its presence worldwide operating in more than 12 countries with a strong employee base of 4700.

Crisil has a wide range of client base which includes micro, small, and medium (MSME) to large corporations. It also includes top global financial institutions. The company also works with commercial and investment banks and other asset management firms at the international level.

Crisil helps businesses make more informed decisions regarding pricing and valuation decisions and also helps them reduce the duration that is required for the timing of the market. 

Fundamental Analysis Of Crisil – Segment Analysis

Crisil as a company has identified three business segments,

(1) Rating Services

(2)Research Analytics and Solutions

(3) Consulting 

Let us now have a look at each of these segments in a detailed way:

(1) Ratings Services

Rating services being one of the major services the company does, the performance of the segment looks impressive and soundful.

As of 2023, Crisil was able to announce 1,200 new bank loan ratings which is an upside growth of 20% on a year-on-year basis.

With a sharp and well-focused analytical rigor, Crisil under the segment was able to maintain a strong market leader position in the corporate bond market ensuring the quality of the ratings. This is the second largest contributor to the overall revenue of Crisil.

(2) Research Analytics and Solutions 

Under this segment, Crisil was able to launch 38 new fixed-income indices for the requirements of the mutual funds, and CRISIL AIF benchmarks were launched as well. The company was able to win large mandates from mutual funds, the World Gold Council, and many more.

To keep the process innovative and updated, Crisil has enhanced the features that are available in Alphatrax,(a wealth tracking solution) to enhance customer satisfaction.

AIF benchmarks continued the process throughout the year, with assets worth 8,500 crores on the Crisil Indices. This remains the biggest contributor to their overall revenue.

(3) Consulting 

Crisl in this segment was able to increase its market share from the international market, along with building an order book with large mandates. The company was able to maintain strong traction in sectors of infrastructure and transport. With a greater share, the segment was able to maintain a leadership position at the international levels with the multilateral and bilateral agencies.

Industry Overview 

The credit rating industry in India mainly consists of six players namely, CRISIL, CARE, FITCH, ICRA, ONICRA, and SMERA. 

The credit rating agencies in India came into existence after the 1980s and currently, all the Credit Rating Agencies in India are under the regulation of SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India). Economic surveys are used to place their criticism of the methodologies that were adopted by the  Credit rating agencies. But as time passed, Credit rating agencies in India started adapting to the requirements.

The rating industry as a whole saw good growth in the years 2022 and 2023 as compared to the previous years. The wholesale bank credit which was driven by the Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) resulted in healthy growth.

Also read…

Fundamental Analysis Of Crisil – Financials

Revenue & Net profit

The Income statement of Crisil shows revenue from operations growing from 2769 crores in FY 2022 to 3140 crores in FY 2023. This is a year-on-year (YOY)  growth of 13.39%. The Net profits of Crisil as of FY 2022 stood at 564 crores. In FY 2023 it was increased to 658 crores. The company’s revenue as well as net profit from past years is witnessing a gradual increase. 

The company was able to achieve better revenue from the operations due to its intensity in the bank loan rating(BLR) market in which the company was able to publish more than 1200 new BLRs in FY 2023, along with other factors such as increasing preferences by the Indian banks for the credit rating agencies is also an added advantage.

The table below shows the revenue from operations of the company: 

Profit margins 

The operating profit margin (OPM) of the company increased from 26% in FY 2022 to 28% in FY 2023 as per its income statements. The net profit margin of the company stood at  20.96% as of FY 2023. In the previous FY 2022, the net profit margin of the company was 19.52%.

Both the operating profit margin (OPM) and Net profit margin (NPM) of the company have increased in FY 2023 along with the increase in the revenue and earnings of the company.

The table below shows the operating profit margin and net profit margin of the company:

Return ratios 

The Return on Equity(ROE) and Return on Capital employed(ROCE) are two important return metrics to look at. The Return on equity(ROE) of the company stood at 33.1% as of FY 2023. On an average of 3 years, the Return on Equity (ROE)  of the company stood at 32%.

The Return on capital employed(ROCE) by the company stood at 42.4%.On an average of 3 years, the return on capital employed(ROCE) is at 40.4%. With continuous improvements in the revenue and profits each year, both the Return on Equity and Return on capital employed of the company are getting better making it impressive and stable for the investors.

The table below shows the operating profit ROE and ROCE of the company:

Leverage ratios

The debt-to-equity ratio of the Crisil company as of 2023 is at 0.02 which is quite low. In FY 2022 the company had a debt of 0.06 and in FY 2023 has reduced its debt portion by making the repayments which helped it bring the debt down to 0.02. 

Further, the interest coverage ratio of the company was 117 times which in FY 2023  was increased to 238 times which signifies the safety of the company in making the interest payments. The reduction in the debt portion of the company has led to an increase in the interest coverage ratio.

The table below shows the Debt-to-equity and Interest coverage ratio of the company:

Fundamental Analysis Of Crisil – Key Metrics

Fundamental Analysis Of Crisil – Future Plans 

  • Crisil Company is well known for providing independent and unbiased ratings through which they can gain a greater market share and is aiming to maintain the market leader position.
  • Crisil is building up new plans for the banks in their lending business, with proper strategy and allocation of funds.
  • Crisil to keep its segment more active is offering risk solutions and consulting solutions, especially in the area of planning and making strategies along with implementation and management of risk.

Read more: Fundamental Analysis of Canara Bank

Conclusion 

As we come to the end of the article “Fundamental Analysis Of Crisil”, to give a quick brief. We went through the company overview, segments, industry overview, and plans of the company were analyzed. Do drop your views in the comment section below.

Written by Nishanth P

By utilising the stock screener, stock heatmap, portfolio backtesting, and stock compare tool on the Trade Brains portal, investors gain access to comprehensive tools that enable them to identify the best stocks, also get updated with stock market news, and make well-informed investments.

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Lok Sabha Elections Phase 1 2024 Highlights: Nearly 64% Voter Turnout In Phase 1 Lok Sabha Polls

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LS Polls 2024 Highlights: The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be announced on June 4

New Delhi:

The first phase of voting for the 18th Lok Sabha elections were held in 21 states and Union territories on April 19. Nearly 64% voter turnout was recorded pm across the states. Seats in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Rajasthan, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Bengal, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Jammu and Kashmir, Lakshadweep and Puducherry go to polls today.

More than 16.63 crore voters, which include over eight crore men and women each, will cast their vote at nearly 2 lakh polling stations.

Union ministers Nitin Gadkari, Bhupendra Yadav, Kiren Rijiju, Jitendra Singh, Arjun Ram Meghwal, and Sarbananda Sonowal are in the fray in the first phase. Congress’s Gaurav Gogoi, DMK’s Kanimozhi, and BJP’s Tamil Nadu chief K Annamalai are also contesting the polls today.

While the BJP-led NDA is seeking a stronger majority, the opposition INDIA bloc are hoping for a rebound. In 2019, the UPA had won 45 of the 102 seats at stake on Friday and the NDA 41. Six of these seats have been redrawn as part of the delimitation exercise.

The general elections to elect 543 members of the 18th Lok Sabha will be held in seven phases, from April 19 to June 1. The results will be announced on June 4.

Here are the highlights on Lok Sabha polls Phase 1:

Get NDTV UpdatesTurn on notifications to receive alerts as this story develops.

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: Nearly 64% Voter Turnout In Phase 1 Of Polls

States

No of Seats

2019 Phase 1 TO

2024 Phase 1 (Provisional)

ALL INDIA

102

70.0

63.7

Andaman & Nicobar Islands

1/1

65.1

64.0

Arunachal Pradesh

2/2

82.1

67.7

Assam

5/14

74.8

72.3

Bihar

4/40

53.6

48.5

Chhattisgarh

1/11

66.3

65.3

Jammu & Kashmir

1/5

70.2

65.2

Lakshadweep

1/1

85.2

59.0

Madhya Pradesh

6/29

75.1

66.7

Maharashtra

5/48

64.1

57.8

Manipur

2/2

82.7

69.2

Meghalaya

2/2

71.4

74.5

Mizoram

1/1

63.1

56.6

Nagaland

1/1

83.0

56.9

Puducherry

1/1

81.2

73.8

Rajasthan

12/25

64.0

57.3

Sikkim

1/1

81.4

75.1

Tamil Nadu

39/39

72.4

67.2

Tripura

1/2

81.9

80.6

Uttar Pradesh

8/80

66.6

59.5

Uttarakhand

5/5

61.9

54.6

West Bengal

3/42

84.8

77.6

Vidhan Sabha Turnout

No of Seats

2019 Phase 1 TO

2024 Phase 1 (Provisional)

Sikkim

32/32

81.4

75.3

Arunachal Pradesh

50/50

65.9

70.1
Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: Nearly 64% Voter Turnout In Phase 1 Of Polls

States

No of Seats

2019 Phase 1 TO

2024 Phase 1 (Provisional)

ALL INDIA

102

70.0

63.7

Andaman & Nicobar Islands

1/1

65.1

64.0

Arunachal Pradesh

2/2

82.1

67.7

Assam

5/14

74.8

72.3

Bihar

4/40

53.6

48.5

Chhattisgarh

1/11

66.3

65.3

Jammu & Kashmir

1/5

70.2

65.2

Lakshadweep

1/1

85.2

59.0

Madhya Pradesh

6/29

75.1

66.7

Maharashtra

5/48

64.1

57.8

Manipur

2/2

82.7

69.2

Meghalaya

2/2

71.4

74.5

Mizoram

1/1

63.1

56.6

Nagaland

1/1

83.0

56.9

Puducherry

1/1

81.2

73.8

Rajasthan

12/25

64.0

57.3

Sikkim

1/1

81.4

75.1

Tamil Nadu

39/39

72.4

67.2

Tripura

1/2

81.9

80.6

Uttar Pradesh

8/80

66.6

59.5

Uttarakhand

5/5

61.9

54.6

West Bengal

3/42

84.8

77.6

Vidhan Sabha Turnout

No of Seats

2019 Phase 1 TO

2024 Phase 1 (Provisional)

Sikkim

32/32

81.4

75.3

Arunachal Pradesh

50/50

65.9

70.1
Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Haryana’s Oldest Voter Is 118 Years Old

At 118, Dharamveer from Haryana’s Palwal district is the oldest male voter while Balbir Kaur of Sirsa is the oldest female voter at 117, Chief Electoral Officer Anurag Agarwal said, reported news agency PTI. “Dharamveer of Palwal district is the oldest voter in Haryana at 118 years. Similarly, Balbir Kaur of Sirsa district is 117 years old, Bhagwani of Sonipat district is 116 years old while Lakkhishek of Panipat district is 115 years old,” Mr Agarwal said. He said Chandro Kaur of Rohtak district and Rani of Fatehabad district are both 112 years old while Antidevi of Kurukshetra district, Sarjit Kaur and Chobi Devi are all aged 111 years.

Lok Sabha Polls LIVE: This Vulnerable Tribal Group In Andaman Votes For 1st Time
For the first time in Andaman and Nicobar Islands, seven members of the Shompen tribe, a particularly vulnerable tribal group (PVTGs) of Great Nicobar Islands exercised their voting rights for the lone Lok Sabha seat in the union territory.

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: Nearly 2,500 Voters Cross India-Bangladesh Border To Vote In Tripura

Around 2,500 voters crossed the India-Bangladesh border today to cast their votes in Tripura, reported news agency ANI. The barbed wire fence might have cast a shadow on their lives but none wanted to miss the opportunity to exercise their franchise in the biggest festival of democracy. A substantial number of voters in Tripura are forced to stay beyond the barbed fences for historical reasons.

Those who have attained the legal voting age now feature on the electoral rolls of Tripura. Since morning, the border gates were opened to facilitate the voting.

Amid heightened security, Indian citizens, sort of cut off from the mainstream, said they have been receiving all kinds of cooperation from the authorities so that they can vote without any hassle.

Speaking to news agency ANI, Indian citizen Hafizur Rahmanz, who lives on the Bangladesh side of the barbed wires, said all 50 voters from his village were eager to vote in these elections.

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: 27-Member Joint Family Casts Votes Day After Losing Relative

Twenty-seven members of a joint family in Nagpur cast their votes today despite losing an elderly relative a day ago, reported news agency PTI. Madanmohan Khemani (74), second of five brothers, died on Thursday. “He always talked about the importance of voting,” said Manoj Khemani, his brother.

“Hence, all 27 of us today exercised our franchise at the Wardhaman Nagar polling booth. After that we took part in the Utthavna (post-death ritual),” he said.

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: “Curious To Know The Results,” Says AR Rahman
Oscar-winning music composer AR Rahman voted in Chennai today and said, “I am curious to know what the result is. But let’s hope it is for the best. Let’s hope it is for the people, for the benefit of the people.”

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: “Bumper Voting” In 1st Phase, Says Amit Shah

Union Home Minister Amit Shah said “bumper voting” happened in the first phase of the Lok Sabha elections today and claimed that “Modi, Modi” chants were heard outside polling booths, reported news agency PTI. Twelve parliamentary seats in Rajasthan were among the 102 that went to polls in the first phase of the seven-phase elections. Addressing an election rally, Mr Shah said, “In the first phase, bumper voting is taking place across the country. Whoever goes in, comes out shouting ‘Modi, Modi’.”

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: 70-Year-Old Voter Damages EVM In Haridwar

An elderly voter in Uttarakhand’s Haridwar threw an electronic voting machine (EVM) on the ground, demanding voting take place through ballot paper, the police said. The machine was damaged a little but was not replaced as it continued to function, they said. The man, 70-year-old Randhir, was taken into custody, the police said.

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: 60.03% Voter Turnout At 7 PM In Phase 1 Of Polls
Aggregate voter turnout for phase 1 at 7 pm is 60.03%

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: 60.03% Voter Turnout At 7 PM In Phase 1 Of Polls
Aggregate voter turnout for phase 1 at 7 pm is 60.03%

Lok Sabha 2024 Polls LIVE: Security Personnel On Poll Duty Dies Of Heart Attack

A 28-year-old security personnel on election duty in Mizoram died of a heart attack today, officials said, reported news agency PTI. Lalrinpuia, who was in the second Indian Reserve Battalion (IRBn), was found dead this morning at the Vangchhia polling station in the state’s Champhai district when other security personnel tried to wake him, they said.

He died due to cardiac arrest around 4:45 am, the officials said.

His body was sent to his village in the state’s Khawzawl district after an autopsy at the Champhai district hospital, they said.

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: TDP Candidate Delays Campaigning, Conducts C-Section On Woman In Danger
Putting her professional oath ahead of a potentially political one, a candidate for the assembly polls in Andhra Pradesh, who is also a doctor, delayed her campaign to help a woman deliver a baby via a caesarean section. 
Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: Poll Body’s Special Arrangements To Make Voting More Inclusive
Inclusive election: The Election Commission made arrangements for specially-abled and aged voters to cast their votes without any hurdles.

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: Dressed In Wedding Clothes, Newlyweds Cast Votes In Nainital

Gayatri Chandol and her husband grabbed eyeballs at the Dailia polling station in Nainital as they turned up in their wedding attire to cast votes, reported news agency PTI. The couple stood out as they waited their turn.

Gayatri got married late last night and was scheduled to leave with her husband today for her in-laws’ home but decided to cast her vote before her ‘vidaai‘. She works in Bengaluru and her husband, Ravi Shankar Tripathi, is a resident of the southern city.

However, she was not the only newlywed bride to cast her vote in Uttarakhand today.

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: 63.4% Voter Turnout In Chhattisgarh Till 5 PM

Chhattisgarh registered a voter turnout of 63.4% till 5 pm in the first phase of polls today.

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: 63.2% Voter Turnout In Tamil Nadu Till 5 PM

Tamil Nadu registered a voter turnout of 63.2% till 5 pm in the first phase of polls today.

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: 59.7% Voter Turnout Till 5 PM

States

No of Seats

2019 Phase 1 TO

2024 Phase 1 (5 PM) 

ALL INDIA

102

70.0

59.7

Andaman & Nicobar Islands

1/1

65.1

56.9

Arunachal Pradesh

2/2

82.1

63.4

Assam

5/14

74.8

70.8

Bihar

4/40

53.6

46.3

Chhattisgarh

1/11

66.3

63.4

Jammu & Kashmir

1/5

70.2

65.1

Lakshadweep

1/1

85.2

59.0

Madhya Pradesh

6/29

75.1

63.3

Maharashtra

5/48

64.1

54.9

Manipur

2/2

82.7

67.7

Meghalaya

2/2

71.4

69.9

Mizoram

1/1

63.1

52.7

Nagaland

1/1

83.0

55.8

Puducherry

1/1

81.2

72.8

Rajasthan

12/25

64.0

50.3

Sikkim

1/1

81.4

68.1

Tamil Nadu

39/39

72.4

62.0

Tripura

1/2

81.9

76.1

Uttar Pradesh

8/80

66.6

57.5

Uttarakhand

5/5

61.9

53.6

West Bengal

3/42

84.8

77.6

Vidhan Sabha Turnout

No of Seats

2019 Phase 1 TO

2024 Phase 1 (5 AM) 

Sikkim

32/32

81.4

67.5

Arunachal Pradesh

50/50

65.9

64.7

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: EVMs Vandalised In Manipur Amid Reports Of Proxy Voting
EVMs were vandalised in Manipur’s Moirang Kampu amid reports of armed groups proxy voting for almost a hundred people. As the villagers raised an alarm and protested, the Inner Manipur Congress candidate, Bimol Akoijam rushed to the area.

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: Polling Over In Uttarakhand
Polling over for the day in Uttarakhand. Now, only those already inside the polling booths will be able to vote.

Lok Sabha 2024 Polls LIVE: Sri Lankan Tamil Born In Refugee Camp In India, Votes For 1st Time

Born in 1986 at a refugee centre in Rameswaram Mandapam camp and now living at a rehabilitation camp for Sri Lankan Tamils in Trichy’s Kottapattu, Nalaini Kirubakaran cast her vote for the first time today, reported news agency ANI. “For the first time, I voted… I am very happy. At the age of 38, my dream has been fulfilled. I am the first person in Tamil Nadu to vote from Sri Lankan Refugee Camp,” Ms Kirubakaran said.

In 2021, she moved the Madras High Court when her application for an Indian passport was rejected by a regional passport office.

The Madurai bench of the Madras High Court in August 2022 directed officials to issue her am Indian passport, pointing out that the birth certificate is from Mandapam and states that a person born in India between January 26, 1950 and July 1, 1987 is a “citizen by birth,” according to the Section 3 of the Citizenship Act, 1995.

Despite getting her passport, Nalaini Kirubakaran continues to live in the rehabilitation camp, with special permission from the district collector since her family is still stateless and living inside the Trichy refugee camp. She applied for a Voter ID card and received it in January 2024.

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: Altercation Between Inner Manipur Congress Candidate, Police
Major altercation breaks out between the police and the Inner Manipur Congress candidate Bimol Akoijam after his polling agent was allegedly driven out of a polling station.

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: 49.9% Voter Turnout Till 3 PM

States

No of Seats

2019 Phase 1 TO

2024 Phase 1 (3 PM) 

ALL INDIA

102

70.0

49.9

Andaman & Nicobar Islands

1/1

65.1

45.5

Arunachal Pradesh

2/2

82.1

55.1

Assam

5/14

74.8

60.7

Bihar

4/40

53.6

39.7

Chhattisgarh

1/11

66.3

58.1

Jammu & Kashmir

1/5

70.2

57.1

Lakshadweep

1/1

85.2

44.0

Madhya Pradesh

6/29

75.1

53.4

Maharashtra

5/48

64.1

44.1

Manipur

2/2

82.7

63.0

Meghalaya

2/2

71.4

62.0

Mizoram

1/1

63.1

49.8

Nagaland

1/1

83.0

51.7

Puducherry

1/1

81.2

58.9

Rajasthan

12/25

64.0

41.5

Sikkim

1/1

81.4

52.7

Tamil Nadu

39/39

72.4

51.0

Tripura

1/2

81.9

68.4

Uttar Pradesh

8/80

66.6

47.4

Uttarakhand

5/5

61.9

45.6

West Bengal

3/42

84.8

66.3

Vidhan Sabha Turnout

No of Seats

2019 Phase 1 TO

2024 Phase 1 (3 PM) 

Sikkim

32/32

81.4

52.7

Arunachal Pradesh

50/50

65.9

54.3
Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: “Silent Undercurrent” Against BJP In Western UP, Says Congress

The Congress on Friday claimed that a “silent undercurrent” is brewing across western Uttar Pradesh against the “failures” of the Modi government, as it flagged issues such as “neglect” of sugarcane farmers and examination paper leaks. “Today’s questions for the PM as he heads to UP: Why has the BJP neglected UP’s sugarcane farmers? Rs 20,000 crores later, why is the Ganga still India’s most polluted river? Is the Modi Sarkar doing anything to prevent paper leaks? Elaborating on what he said were “jumla details”, Ramesh said Uttar Pradesh is India’s largest sugarcane producer and yet, the BJP government has “neglected” farmers’ calls to increase the price of sugarcane,” Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh said.

India National Elections 2024 Live: Rajinikanth, Dhanush, Ramdev Cast Their Vote
In Pics: People Across The Country Cast Their Vote In Lok Sabha Polls
Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: “INDIA Bloc Will Win Over 272 Seats”, Says Sachin Pilot

Congress leader Sachin Pilot said that the opposition’s INDIA bloc with cross the majority mark of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha polls and Congress will win more seats than the BJP in Rajasthan. “There is an atmosphere of change in the entire country and state and based on what I am seeing, I think that the performance of Congress will be much better than before and INDIA alliance will get a majority on June 4. It makes no sense to give a guarantee to cross 200,300,500 seats, all I can say is that in Rajasthan, we will get more seats than the BJP and INDIA alliance will cross the majority mark of 272 seats in the country,” he said.

Phase 1 Election 2024 Live: “BJP Will Win 400 Seats, Congress Will Struggle For 40”, Says Anurag Thakur

Union Minister for Information & Broadcasting Anurag Thakur says that BJP will secure beyond 400 and Congress will struggle for even 40 seats. “BJP will secure beyond 400 and Congress will struggle for even 40 seats. Congress today talks about going back to paper ballots because in earlier times, polling booths were looted. Ballot boxes were falsely stamped. But today, because of the EVMs, there is transparency. No matter which government, the Election Commission has always done a great job… And this is the biggest strength of our democracy,” he said.

Elections 2024 Live: Trinamool, BJP Workers Clash In West Bengal’s Cooch Behar

The polling in the first two hours for three Lok Sabha constituencies in West Bengal on Friday was marred by incidents of violence in the Cooch Behar Lok Sabha constituency. The reports of inter-party clashes, burning down and ransacking of rival party offices and serious injuries to some party activists were being reported.

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: 5 Poll Officials Suspended In Kerala

Five poll officials were suspended for dereliction of duty after it was found that a CPI-M polling agent helped a 92-year-old woman cast her vote from home. According to the election rules, voters above the age of 85 can vote from their homes. In some visuals that have surfaced, local CPI-M leader Ganeshan could be seen helping the woman cast her vote. As per the rules, polling agents of any party cannot assist voters in exercising their franchise.

Phase 1 Election 2024 Live: 39.9% Voter Turnout Recorded Till 1 pm

Phase 1 Turnout

9:00 AM

11:00 AM

1:00 PM

3:00 PM

5:00 PM

Total

2024

10.7

24.5

39.9

 

 

 

2019

10.4

23.2

39.5

51.8

62.6

70.0

Change

0.3

1.3

0.4

 

 

 
Lok Sabha Phase 1 Live: Nearly 40% Voter Turnout Recorded By 1pm

States

No of Seats

2019 Phase 1 TO

2024 Phase 1 (1 PM) 

ALL INDIA

102

70.0

39.9

Andaman & Nicobar Islands

1/1

65.1

35.7

Arunachal Pradesh

2/2

82.1

35.0

Assam

5/14

74.8

45.1

Bihar

4/40

53.6

32.4

Chhattisgarh

1/11

66.3

42.6

Jammu & Kashmir

1/5

70.2

43.1

Lakshadweep

1/1

85.2

29.9

Madhya Pradesh

6/29

75.1

44.4

Maharashtra

5/48

64.1

32.4

Manipur

2/2

82.7

46.9

Meghalaya

2/2

71.4

48.9

Mizoram

1/1

63.1

37.4

Nagaland

1/1

83.0

39.7

Puducherry

1/1

81.2

45.0

Rajasthan

12/25

64.0

33.7

Sikkim

1/1

81.4

36.8

Tamil Nadu

39/39

72.4

39.5

Tripura

1/2

81.9

53.0

Uttar Pradesh

8/80

66.6

37.0

Uttarakhand

5/5

61.9

37.3

West Bengal

3/42

61.9

51.0
Election 2024 Phase 1 Voting Live: “Uphold Essence Of Democracy”: BJP Chief JP Nadda

“As the 1st phase of Lok Sabha Election 2024 begins, I urge everyone to cast their votes in large numbers and uphold the essence of democracy. Your every vote holds the power to shape the trajectory of our nation’s future.”

Madhya Pradesh Mayor’s U-Turn: Urges Voters To Back Congress After Joining BJP

Chhindwara mayor Vikram Ahake, who recently joined the BJP, urged people to vote for Congress’ Nakul Nath. “Soon after joining a political party, I was feeling suffocated. I felt that I was not doing the right thing with a person who has developed Chhindwara,” Ahake said in a video message shared on social media. I don’t know what will happen to me, but if I don’t stand with my leader Kamal Nath and Nakul Nath today… as they have done a lot for me… I appeal to the voters to ensure the victory of Nakul Nath (and his father Kamal Nath) with a huge margin,” he said in the video message.

Lok Sabha Polls 2024: A Look At Uttar Pradesh

Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Tripura Records 34.54% Voter Turnout Till 1PM
Tripura has recorded 34.54% voter turnout till 1 pm.

EVM Destroyed After Booth Capturing Attempt In Manipur’s Imphal

Armed attackers tried to capture a booth and broke EVM machines in Kohongman zone 3 constituency in Manipur’s Imphal East.

Lok Sabha Election Phase 1 Live: Voter Turnout Till 11:00 am in Uttarakhand

Voter turnout till 11:00 am in Uttarakhand: 24.83%

Nainital                         26.46%

Haridwar                       26.47%

Almora                          22.21%

Tehri                              23.23%

Garhwal                         23.43%

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live: Over 25% Voter Turnout Till 11 am In Uttar Pradesh

Voter turnout in Uttar Pradesh till 11 am: 25.20%

Bijnor                                          25.50%

Kairana                                        25.89%

Moradabad                                  23.35%

Muzaffarnagar                             22.62%

Nagina                                         26.89%

Pilibhit                                         26.94%

Rampur                                        20.71%

Saharanpur                                   29.84%

Lok Sabha Election Phase 1 Live: Jagan Reddy’s Party’s “Poor” Candidate Has Assets Worth Rs 161
YSRCP candidate from Yemmiganur Assembly constituency, Butta Renuka, who was recently called ‘poor’ by Chief Minister Y. S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, has declared family assets of Rs 161.21 crore. The businesswoman owns automobile dealerships, hotels and educational institutions. She also owns the Butta Convention.
Phase 1 Election 2024 Live: 24.5% Voter Turnout Recorded Till 11 am

Elections 2024 Live: 24.83% Polling Was Recorded Till 11 am In Uttarakhand
In Uttarakhand, 24.83% voter turnout was recorded till 11 am in the five Lok Sabha constituencies

Elections 2024 Live: Voting Turnout In Madhya Pradesh Till 11 am

Voting turnout in Madhya Pradesh till 11 am

Davada –      30% 

Balaghat-     35.64% 

Seedhi-        24.87 %

Jabalpur-     27.41 %

Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Overall Voter Turnout At 24.5% At 11 am

Phase 1 Turnout 

States

No of Seats

2019 Phase 1 TO

2024 Phase 1 (11 AM) 

ALL INDIA

102

70.0

24.5

Andaman & Nicobar Islands

1/1

65.1

21.8

Arunachal Pradesh

2/2

82.1

18.0

Assam

5/14

74.8

27.2

Bihar

4/40

53.6

20.4

Chhattisgarh

1/11

66.3

28.1

Jammu & Kashmir

1/5

70.2

22.6

Lakshadweep

1/1

85.2

16.3

Madhya Pradesh

6/29

75.1

30.5

Maharashtra

5/48

64.1

19.2

Manipur

2/2

82.7

27.6

Meghalaya

2/2

71.4

31.7

Mizoram

1/1

63.1

25.9

Nagaland

1/1

83.0

22.5

Puducherry

1/1

81.2

27.6

Rajasthan

12/25

64.0

22.5

Sikkim

1/1

81.4

21.2

Tamil Nadu

39/39

72.4

23.7

Tripura

1/2

81.9

33.3

Uttar Pradesh

8/80

66.6

25.2

Uttarakhand

5/5

61.9

24.6

West Bengal

3/42

61.9

33.6
Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Young And New Voters In Phase 1
WATCH: Arunachal Poll Team Walks 22 km On Foot, Carrying Voter Machines On Horses

Lok Sabha Polls: CRPF Jawan On Poll Duty Injured After Grenade Accidentally Explodes

A jawan of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) deployed on poll duty in Chhattisgarh’s Bijapur district was injured when a shell of Under Barrel Grenade Launcher (UBGL) accidentally exploded, a police official said. Bijapur district falls in the Maoist-hit Bastar Lok Sabha constituency where voting was underway in the first phase of general elections, he added.

Lok Sabha Polls 2024: “BJP Does Not Find Space In Tamil Nadu,” Says K Kanimozhi

As the voting began for all 39 Lok Sabha seats in the state on Friday, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam leader Kanimozhi said here that the fight is “clearly” between the DMK and AIADMK as the “BJP does not find space in Tamil Nadu.”

“In Tamil Nadu, I do not even think they (BJP) will come in second place. The fight is clearly between DMMK and AIADMK. BJP does not find space here. BJP is not even contesting in Thoothukudi. In Tamil Nadu, INDIA alliance will get 39 seats and 1 seat in Puducherry,” she said.

Lok Sabha Polls 2024: “Lotus Will Bloom In Arunachal Pradesh”: Chief Minister Pema Khandu

Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu, after casting his vote in the first phase of the Lok Sabha elections, said that this time “kamal ka phool” is sure to bloom in Arunachal Pradesh and the BJP will win both Lok Sabha seats. “Today is the mega festival of democracy and voting for the first phase of Lok Sabha elections is underway. I expect that the number of voters this year will surpass the number of voters in 2019. BJP is going to make history in the state. We will also win both Lok Sabha seats. In the previous election, BJP got 41 seats and we hope that this time BJP will get 60 out of 60 seats,” he said.

Election 2024 Phase 1 Voting Live: Key Battles In General Elections
In Pics: Newly-married Couples Cast Their Vote Across India
Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Chhattisgarh Bride Takes Break From Wedding Rituals, Casts Her Vote
Bride-to-be Deepika Diwan, 20, from Girola Gauripada in Kondagaon took a break from her wedding rituals to cast her vote. 
In Pics: Women, Senior Citizens Queue Up To Cast Their Vote In Bihar, Uttarakhand And Assam
Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Polling Percentage Of Phase 1 In 8 UP Constituencies

The voting percentage of 8 constituencies of Uttar Pradesh is 12.66%.

Saharanpur- 16.49%

Kairana- 12.45%

Muzaffarnagar- 11.31%

Bijnor- 12.37%

Nagina – 13.91%

Moradabad- 10.89%

Rampur- 10.66%

Pilibhit- 13.36 %

Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Voter Turnout For Phase 1 Till 9 am

Phase 1 Turnout 

States

No of Seats

2019 Phase 1 TO

2024 Phase 1 (9 AM) 

Andaman & Nicobar Islands

1/1

65.1

8.6

Arunachal Pradesh

2/2

82.1

5.0

Assam

5/14

74.8

11.2

Bihar

4/40

53.6

9.2

Chhattisgarh

1/11

66.3

12.0

Jammu & Kashmir

1/5

70.2

10.4

Lakshadweep

1/1

85.2

5.6

Madhya Pradesh

6/29

75.1

14.1

Maharashtra

5/38

64.1

7.0

Manipur

2/2

82.7

7.6

Meghalaya

2/2

71.4

13.0

Mizoram

1/1

63.1

9.4

Nagaland

1/1

83.0

7.7

Puducherry

1/1

81.2

7.5

Rajasthan

12/25

64.0

10.7

Sikkim

1/1

81.4

6.6

Tamil Nadu

39/39

72.4

8.2

Tripura

1/2

81.9

13.6

Uttar Pradesh

8/80

66.6

12.2

Uttarakhand

5/5

61.9

10.1

West Bengal

3/42

61.9

15.1
Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Voter Turnout Till 9 am

Phase 1 Turnout

9:00 AM

11:00 AM

1:00 PM

3:00 PM

5:00 PM

Total

2024

9.7

 

 

 

 

 

2019

10.4

23.2

39.5

51.8

62.6

70.0

Change

-0.7

 

 

 

 

 
Voter Turnout In Assam, Bihar And Chhattisgarh
Assam     11.15%

Bihar       9.23%

Chhattisgarh    12.02%

A Bride And Groom Cast Their Vote In Uttarakhand’s Pauri Garhwal
Over 15 % Voter Turnout Recorded In Madhya Pradesh, Tripura, West Bengal Till 10 am
Madhya Pradesh    15%

West Bengal    15.09%

Tripura            15.29%

Source: Election Commission

“Pehle Matdaan Phir Jalpaan”: Uttarakhand Chief Minister’s Advice To Voters
Uttarakhand Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami urged voters to turn out in high numbers and cast their vote in the Phase 1 of the Lok Sabha Elections. “Pehle Matdaan Phir Jalpaan. Today is the mega festival of democracy. I appeal to everyone to cast their votes and choose a good government. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has seen new heights in the last 10 years and our country has got global recognition. PM Modi wants to create a strong India and a strong Uttarakhand,” he said.

Lok Sabha Polls 2024: “Fight To Protect Constitution Begins Today”, Says Congress Chief Mallikarjun Kharge

Lok Sabha Polls 2024: “Future Of India In Your Hands”: MK Stalin’s Message To Voters

“I did the democratic duty of protecting the country! Everyone vote correctly. Especially, first-time voters-and young people, vote with enthusiasm! The future of our India is in your hands,” the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister said in a post on X.

Union Minister Kiren Rijiju Casts His Vote

Union Minister Kiren Rijiju cast his votes in his village Nafra in the newly created Bichom district of Arunachal Prades
Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Phase 1 In Numbers
Explained: Why Is Webcasting Used At Polling Stations

Webcasting at polling booths is undertaken to keep in check illegal activities such as booth capturing, money distribution and bogus voting.

It is also used to broadcast and monitor live election process from a distant polling station and capture faces of voters coming to vote at polling stations.

As per an election commission, webcasting will be done in more than 50 per cent of the polling stations, along with the deployment of micro-observers in all polling stations.

Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Leaders On Campaign Trail Today

  1. BJP President J.P. Nadda will hold three roadshows and a public meeting in Kerala.
  2. Union Home Minister Amit Shah will visit Rajasthan on Friday.
  3. Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge will address a public meeting in Bihar’s Bahadurganj.
  4. BSP chief Mayawati will address an election rally in Madhya Pradesh’s Rewa.
  5. Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav will address a public meeting in Gautam Buddha Nagar’s Sikandrabad.
  6. Congress leader Sachin Pilot will campaign at Rajasthan’s Sawai Madhopur.
Lok Sabha Polls 2024: PM Modi To Campaign In UP, Madhya Pradesh And Maharashtra

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will campaign for Lok Sabha poll candidates of the NDA in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra today. PM Modi is scheduled to address public meetings in Uttar Pradesh’s Amroha at 10am, Madhya Pradesh’s Damoh at 2 pm and Maharashtra’s Wardha at 5 pm.

“Rajasthn Will Repeat History”: Chief Minister Confident Of BJP’s Win
Rajasthan Chief Minister Bhajanlal Sharma said the voters of Rajasthan will return the BJP to power. “I would like to appeal to you today that this is a festival of democracy – do cast your vote. Your votes will strengthen our democracy, our country. I would like to tell you that Rajasthan will repeat the history of 2014 and 2019 – I am confident,” the chief minister said after casting his vote at Jaipur polling booth.

Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Congress’s Gaura Gogoi Casts His Vote
Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi casts his vote for the first phase of Lok Sabha elections in Assam’s Jorhat.
Lok Sabha Polls 2024: World’s Shortest Woman Casts Her Vote
World’s shortest woman Jyoti Amge casts her vote for the first phase of Lok Sabha elections in Nagpur 
Nitin Gadkari To K Kanimozhi: Big Faces Contesting In Phase 1 Today
Lok Sabha Polls 2024: A Look At Tamil Nadu
In Pics: Voters In Maharashtra’s Gadchiroli Cast Their Vote
“Your Votes Will Decide Future Of Indian Democracy”: Rahul Gandhi

Today is the first phase of voting!

Remember, each of your votes is going to decide the future of Indian democracy and the coming generations.

So come out and strengthen democracy by applying the balm of your vote to the wounds inflicted on the soul of the nation in the last 10 years.

Defeat hatred and open ‘mohabbat ki dukaan’ in every corner.

Meghalaya Chief Minister Waits In Queue At Polling Station To Cast His Vote

Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad K Sangma reached the Walbakgre polling station in Tura at 6.30 am and is waiting in queue for his turn to vote. 

Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Polling Begins For Udhampur Seat In Jammu And Kashmir

Five years after Jammu and Kashmir lost its special status following the abrogation of Article 370, voting began in the first phase of general elections in the Udhampur constituency.

The polling will be held in 2,637 polling stations across the constituency despite pouring rain and will decide the fate of 12 candidates, including Union Minister Jitendra Singh.

Early voters braved the inclement weather in the morning to head to the polling stations. Over 16 lakh people, including 845,283 are men and 777,899 women are eligible to cast their vote. 

“Choose Strong, Decisive Leadership”: Home Minister Amit Shah To Voters

BJP vs Congress: Battle For 5 Lok Sabha Seats In Maharashtra Begins

In the first phase of the general elections, voting has begun for the five Lok Sabha seats of Maharashtra where more than 95 lakh people are eligible to vote.

In Nagpur, there is a direct fight between senior BJP leader Gadkari and Congress candidate Vikas Thakre.

In Chandrapur, BJP candidate and Maharashtra minister Sudhir Mungantiwar is facing Congress nominee Pratibha Dhanorkar

In Bhandara-Gondia, the BJP has fielded sitting MP Sunil Mendhe, who is pitted against Congress candidate Dr Prashant Patole.

Two-time Lok Sabha MP of BJP, Ashok Nete, is contesting against Congress nominee Dr Namdev Kirsan in Gadchiroli-Chimur (ST)

In Ramtek, the fight is between Shyamkumar Barwe of the Congress and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena’s candidate Raju Parwe.

Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Polling For Lone Seat in Andaman And Nicobar Island Begins

Amid tight secuirty, voting has begun for the lone Lok Sabha seat in Andaman and Nicobar Islands. A total of 3.15 lakh voters – 1.64 lakh men, 1.51 lakh women are eligible to vote. Special polling stations have been established for 39 voters of the Great Nicobarese tribe of Strait Islands, 68 members of the Onge tribe at Hut Bay and 98 Shompen tribals of Great Nicobar Island.

In Pics: Voters At Polling Station In Uttar Pradesh’s Bijnor
Lok Sabha Polls 2024: “I Call Upon Young, First Time Voters”: PM Modi’s Message To Voters



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How to Make Money Watching YouTube: The Insider’s Guide

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Key Takeaways:

  1. Earn Rewards Watching YouTube: Platforms like Swagbucks, InboxDollars, and Nielsen Computer & Mobile Panel offer cash or gift card rewards for watching videos and more.
  2. Monetize Your Videos: Utilize YouTube AdSense to earn ad revenue by meeting specific criteria like subscribers and watch hours.
  3. YouTube Partner Program: With just 500 subscribers and 3,000 watch hours, creators can qualify for revenue from various sources.
  4. Live Streaming: Explore platforms like Twitch to earn money by sharing your reactions while watching videos, with potential monthly earnings ranging from $50 to $1500.

Have you ever thought about how to make money watching YouTube and creating videos? What’s the secret behind this powerful and easy way to earn money online? If you’re an avid creator or consumer of YouTube videos, you might just stumble upon your dream gig! 

Many don’t realize their passion for crafting engaging video content could translate into a lucrative career. Whether you’re whipping up captivating reviews or sharing your creative endeavours, a whole world of opportunity is waiting to be explored on YouTube.

So, how to make money on YouTube by watching and creating videos? Let’s get all the greatest tips and help you start earning today! 

#1 Make money watching YouTube videos

Looking to earn rewards while indulging in your favourite online activities? Here are some top platforms that offer cash or gift card rewards for tasks like watching videos, taking surveys, and more:

  1. Swagbucks: Earn rewards by completing various tasks, including watching videos, taking surveys, and playing games. Cash out your Swagbucks points for money or gift cards.
  2. InboxDollars: Another platform that rewards users for watching videos, taking surveys, and more. Cash out your earnings via PayPal or gift cards.
  3. Nielsen Computer & Mobile Panel: Install their app to earn points for internet usage, including watching YouTube videos. Redeem points for gift cards or sweepstake entries.
  4. CreationsRewards: Earn points for watching videos and redeem them for cash or gift cards. The platform also offers other earning opportunities.
  5. QuickRewards: Get paid for watching videos, taking surveys, and playing games. Cash out your earnings via PayPal or gift cards.
  6. MyPoints: Earn points for watching videos and various other online activities. Redeem points for cash or gift cards.
  7. FusionCash: Earn rewards for watching videos, taking surveys, and more. Enjoy a sign-up bonus and a high payout rate.

These platforms offer easy ways to earn rewards for activities you already enjoy. Simply sign up, start earning, and cash out your rewards hassle-free! These are the best tips for making money by watching YouTube videos.

However, if you are a video content creator or want to pursue that kind of career, here are the tips on earning money from YouTube content creation! 

#2 Earn from Video Ads on YouTube

Earning on YouTube involves monetizing your videos through ad placements. There are six types of ad formats on YouTube: 

  • Skippable pre-roll ads
  • Non-skippable pre-roll ads
  • In-feed video promotions
  • Bumper ads
  • Outstream advertisements
  • Masthead promotions.

Only skippable, non-skippable, and bumper ads are pertinent for YouTube AdSense. Skippable ads let viewers skip after five seconds; non-skippable ads lack this option, and bumper ads are brief and non-skippable. 

In-feed video ads appear in feeds during content browsing, out-stream ads play on partner platforms, and masthead ads feature at the top of the YouTube home page for a day.

How to start earning through YouTube AdSense?

To start earning through the YouTube AdSense program, you need to meet certain criteria, including:

  • Living in a country where the YouTube Partner Program is available
  • Being at least 18 years old
  • Having no active YouTube community violations.

To qualify, you must meet audience engagement requirements, like having 1,000 subscribers and 4,000 watch hours in the previous year or 1,000 subscribers with 10 million YouTube Shorts views in the past 90 days. You’ll

Once you meet these criteria, it is time to apply to monetize your content through Google AdSense. Once your YouTube channel is approved, it will be linked to your Google AdSense account. This will allow you to earn money from advertisements displayed on your videos.

Applying to the YouTube Partner Program to earn ad revenue

After meeting the requirements, you apply for the YouTube Partner Program and set up your AdSense account. YouTube reviews your application and, once approved, you can start earning from ad revenue. 

It’s important to adhere to YouTube’s monetization policies to ensure continued eligibility. By optimizing your content for search engines, maintaining a consistent posting schedule, and promoting your videos on other platforms, you can maximize your earnings potential.

#3 Youtube partner program

For those who’re still uncertain how to make money watching YouTube, nowadays, even average YouTubers can start making money by watching YouTube videos; thanks to recent updates in the YouTube Partner Program, 

With just 500 subscribers, three recent uploads, and either 3,000 watch hours in a year or 3 million Shorts views in three months, creators can qualify. This opportunity, initially launched in select countries like Canada, the UK, and the US, will soon expand globally. 

Tracking progress is simple through YouTube Studio’s Earn tab. Once approved, creators can begin earning revenue from various sources, including Google AdSense and YouTube Premium subscribers. 

Note: This introduces new income streams for content creators who may have yet to meet the higher thresholds.

Accessing the Full YouTube Partner Program

You’ll need to meet slightly tougher criteria to unlock all features and boost your earnings. Here’s how:

  1. Reach 1,000 subscribers for your channel. Many YouTubers have done this, even newcomers. Check out our guide if you’re still on your way.
  2. Rack up either 4,000 watch hours in a year or 10 million YouTube Shorts views in three months.

Once you hit these goals, you can earn from ad revenue, Shorts, and YouTube Premium subscriptions.

How to Join the YouTube Partner Program: Easy Steps

Accessing the Full YouTube Partner Program

  1. Sign in to your YouTube account.
  2. Check if you meet the requirements in the Earn tab.
  3. Make sure your channel has no active strikes.
  4. Understand YouTube’s monetization rules.
  5. Apply in the Earn tab.

How Long Does It Take?

The time varies. Wait for YouTube to review your channel, which can take up to a month. Check for updates in the Earn tab.

#4 Become a famous video streamer

Become a streamer on Twitch or Stream to kickstart your live streaming career. If you want to know how to make money watching YouTube, many platforms pay for you to do so.

But this is different. In this case, you provide video content by sharing your reactions while watching videos, you can earn money directly deposited into your bank account or PayPal. 

Small Twitch streamers can expect monthly earnings ranging from $50 to $1500, depending on their viewer count. 

With this income, you can easily cover your daily expenses and enjoy the benefits of monetizing your passion for streaming.

You don’t need millions of subscribers to earn money.

Video content creators can monetize their live streams without requiring millions of subscribers. There are simpler alternatives to using pre-roll ads on platforms like YouTube. 

You’re in luck if you’re prepared to transform your high-quality live streams into a revenue stream. 

This guide provides nine efficient methods for making money through live streaming and the earning possibilities for each approach. 

Watch this video if you earn money from live streams and want to make more. It has helpful tips on how to increase your income.

What are the best techniques to earn as a video streamer?

  1. Create Your Platform: Start streaming on platforms like Twitch, but consider making your site with Uscreen for better control and earnings.
  2. Sell Special Streams: Offer workshops or exclusive content for one-time fees, managed easily with platforms like Uscreen.
  3. Make and Sell Products: Sell digital goods or branded items to your audience for extra income.
  4. Offer Services: Use your skills to offer coaching or tutorials, expanding your revenue options.
  5. Get Sponsored: Partner with brands for sponsored content during streams to boost earnings.
  6. Join Affiliate Programs: Promote products during streams and earn commissions through affiliate links.
  7. Ask for Tips: Encourage viewer support through tip jars or subscription tiers for extra income.

We’ll cover some of these techniques in more detail and add some more information in the future

owing text! 

#5 Make money with affiliate marketing 

affiliate marketing 

One of the best ways to make money online, in general, is to do affiliate marketing. For newbies, affiliate marketing represents a partnership where companies reward third-party publishers and affiliates for directing traffic or leading to their products and services. 

Affiliates earn commissions for their promotional efforts, creating a win-win situation for both parties.

How to use the Youtube Shopping affiliate program?

The YouTube Shopping affiliate program lets creators earn by guiding their audience to products they love. By joining, creators can:

  1. Simplify shopping for fans: Tag products in their videos so fans can easily check prices and buy without leaving.
  2. Boost YouTube business: Reach more viewers and brands, increasing earnings through competitive commissions.
  3. Ease content creation: Tag products, track earnings, and get insights in YouTube Studio, freeing up time for content creation.

How to Join?

Once you meet the eligibility criteria, follow these steps to join the program:

  1. Access YouTube Studio: Open YouTube Studio.
  2. Navigate to Earnings: From the bottom menu, select “Earn.”
  3. Join the Program: If eligible, you’ll find a section for the affiliate program. Click “Get Started” and “Turn On” at the bottom of the screen.
  4. Accept Terms: Review and agree to the YouTube Shopping Affiliate Program Terms of Service.
  5. Start Tagging: You can now begin tagging products in your content, following the provided guidelines.

Eligibility Criteria for YouTube Shopping Affiliate Program

To qualify for the YouTube Shopping affiliate program, you must meet these essential requirements:

  1. Membership in the YouTube Partner Program: Your channel must be part of the YouTube Partner Program.
  2. Minimum 15,000 Subscribers: Your channel needs to have more than 15,000 subscribers.
  3. United States Residence: You must be based in the United States.
  4. Non-Music Channel: Your channel cannot be primarily focused on music content or be associated with music partners, such as music labels, distributors, publishers, or VEVO.
  5. Not Made for Kids: Your channel audience settings must not be set as “Made for Kids,” you should not have many videos targeted at kids.
  6. No Community Guideline Strikes: Your channel should not have active Community Guideline strikes.

#6 Earn from Merchandise and Sponsorships 

how to make money watching youtube

Another way of earning money from YouTube is through merchandise and sponsorships. With merchandise, you can showcase products from your online store on your YouTube channel, driving traffic and increasing sales. 

For instance, a gym trainer creating workout videos can sell customized T-shirts, linking the store to the channel for increased visibility. Merchandise sections, like those seen after videos like Chloe Ting’s, offer a direct link to purchase. 

Sponsorships involve collaborating with brands or other creators to promote products or channels, with revenue generated through fixed agreements. 

For instance, a food blogger specializing in reviews can collaborate with restaurants, providing recommendations to viewers. Sponsor shoutouts and linked descriptions are common ways to engage with sponsors and promote their products, as seen in various YouTube videos.

#7 Make viral videos on Youtube

Of course, being famous on YouTube is easy to say, but more is needed. Usually, it takes lots of time to gain YouTube subscribers to your channel, and there are two proven ways to do so:

  • Having your own YouTube podcast or review videos
  • Making viral videos and content that will attract lots of viewers.

How to make viral videos on YouTube?

Often, viral videos are unique. For example, consider the “it’s corn!” clip on YouTube. It grabbed attention because of its charming kid, quirky content, and catchy song.

Your content doesn’t have to fit a mould. Create something special for your audience, whether educational, entertaining, or inspiring.

“Focus on making your audience happy, not just pleasing an algorithm.” – Youtube.

Also, optimizing your video’s title and thumbnail with relevant keywords is a must! 

However, it is crucial to consider timing your uploads when your audience is most active, typically between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. ET. To maximize your reach, utilize features like channel memberships and track short views within the past 90 days. 

Stay updated on industry trends with resources like Influencer Marketing Hub to boost your content’s impact further.

Conclusion

So, if you’ve been wondering how to make money watching YouTube and creating videos – you’ve now got all the essential tips for doing so! Pick one or several ideas and pursue them until you gain traction and profit! 

If you’re more comfortable watching clips, start earning from the abovementioned platforms. However, if you are open-minded, a risk-taker and an adventurous person, try pursuing a Video streaming or influencer career, choosing the topic of your choice! 

Good luck earning from one of the most popular video platforms of our time! 



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Vantagepoint A.I. Hot Stocks Outlook for April 19, 2024

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The Hot Stocks Outlook uses VantagePoint’s market forecasts that are up to 87.4% accurate, demonstrating how traders can improve their timing and direction. In this week’s video, VantagePoint Software reviews forecasts for SPDR SPY($SPY), Freeport-McMoran($FCX), Phillips66 ($PSX), Trip Advisor($TRIP), Raytheon Technologies($RTX), Salesforce ($CRM), Nike ($NKE), Nucor ($NUE)

SPDR SPY ETF ($SPY)

Hello again, traders, and welcome back to the Hot Stocks Outlook for April 19th, 2024. Hope you all are having an excellent week out there in the financial markets. As always, we’ve got plenty to cover in this week’s Hot Stocks Outlook. So, if you haven’t already, make sure you go ahead and click on that link in the description below, sign up, and get a live demonstration to learn all the specifics about how this predictive technology can help you make better trading decisions in the marketplace. Now, we’ll go ahead and start out with the SPDR ETF SPY ($SPY) chart here, but as we typically do, we can look back at some of those bigger blocks of time here.

So, what we’ve been highlighting over the past couple of weeks is that, especially in that consumer cyclical space, you’re starting to see some weakness. That’s why we look at that TripAdvisor stock, and really identifying, okay, well, where can we hedge the portfolio, get short, and make money as we see overall weakness in shares? So, we’re still up about five, almost 6%, year-to-date. But, we want to be in the here and now and recognizing these important shifts in the marketplace. And that’s actually why this session is a good opportunity to highlight how Vantage Point can get you ahead of those turns in the market.

So, here what we have with SPY, of course, is those daily price action bars, right? And so, right up against that price data, we have our predicted moving average, our predicted neural index at the bottom, and the predicted high and low range. So, we’ll go into detail about how all of those work in these subsequent forecasts. But just to highlight, okay, what are we seeing on the SPY even going into last week? Well, this is actually last Friday. And so, we can see that that distance between the predicted moving average, we’ve got that neural index bearish, and we see those predicted high and low ranges acting as guidance for traders to potentially get short positions on, right? So, we really identified that there’s weakness broadly across the stock market, but even from last Thursday here, actually Monday of this week, highlighting again good opportunities to get short and take profits on the short side, seeing these predicted lows.

Freeport-McMoran($FCX)

But let’s go into some detail about how all of this works together. And I thought that this Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold ($FCX) opportunity on FCX would be a good example because we brought this in week to week as we’ve seen those rallies in the gold market. So, what we have here with FCX again is that daily price action, and these being daily bars, and right up against that price data, what you’ll notice is there is a black line and a blue line value. So, the black line value that you see there, well, that’s a simple moving average, so that’s a very common technical indicator. In this case, it’s a 10 period simple moving average, so it’s just going to take the last 10 close prices, add them all together, and then divide by 10, and that’s a good measure to let us know where market prices have been.

So, we can actually think of that as a baseline, letting us know again where market prices have already been, but traders need to be ahead of that next shift in the marketplace. And so, what we want to do is compare that to this proprietary predicted moving average. And for that number, essentially a price prediction gets calculated and plotted on the chart. Well, this is where the technology of artificial neural networks come in, and they’re doing what we would call intermarket analysis.

Now, I stick to this chart because when we think about intermarket analysis, well, what does that mean? Well, that means that we understand that there’s known market driving relationships in other markets. Now, that can be things like ETF groups like The Gold Miner ETF, that could be in other individual stocks. But in something like this, it gets pretty obvious, well, what’s going on in the gold market, right? Or the copper market, right? These are going to be very important markets that have an impact on the price of a stock like this. And so, it’s able to look at those commodity markets, also the price of certain currencies, global interest rates, and so, taking this global approach, looking at dozens of markets specific to the market in question that you’re trading. And so, it then takes that information and then plots that on the chart. And so, whenever we see this blue line cross above the black line, well, it’s suggesting average prices are going to start moving higher. So, it uses that predictive data to, in a sense, skew the indicators to the direction that the market should move, whether that be bullish or bearish. And you see that we just recently got this blue line crossing below the black line, that coming in what would have been Tuesday, the day of this week, and it gives you an opportunity to take some profit.

But not after a 26% rally. So, you see here, even just a couple hundred shares—that’s over $22,000 move to the upside—and you get that exposure to, again, the gold and copper markets that have done very, very well. Here now, at the very bottom of the chart, this is where we have our Vantage Point predicted neural index, and this is tuned to solve short-term trading problems, like, is there strength or weakness just over the next 48-hour period? Or what you can think of as really two candles. And so, you see, it does an excellent job in these periods of warning of that short-term weakness. Then, traders can adapt accordingly, whether that means getting out of the market, getting lower prices, or waiting again for that bigger, you know, trend shift to happen here. So, really nice example here, and this is one of these stocks that we brought through week after week, highlighting that, okay, well, we’re seeing certain areas of the market do very well, especially gold, energy prices, um, but elsewhere, you want to be a lot more careful.

Phillips66 ($PSX)

Now, here’s Phillips 66 ($PSX), more on the energy side, and we saw again a lot of these important shifts spread out throughout the energy space. So here, in PSX stocks, you see that predicted moving average crossing below the actual moving average, and look at that 48-hour forecast here from a large energy stock, right? So, if you wanted to, again, have those bullish energy bets, and you want to hedge that, or equal things out, you know, the easiest thing to do is just take profit on those bullish bets like in FCX. But here, we start to see more of the market shifting lower, and so we can look at those Vantage Point predicted levels, things like those predicted highs and lows, and this is how traders are going to be able to utilize these tools, saying, okay, well, if I want to get short, you want to do that from up here and look to take profits as you get those declines just in the broader market, um, but also in, again, even some of these energy areas that have done quite well here.

So, uh, again, just a really quick, simple example of how you can identify that, you know, we had again these markets doing really well, we’re seeing some of that shift, and if you can get ahead of that, well, you can just take your profits or get involved in a new trading opportunity.

Trip Advisor($TRIP)

So, uh, here Trip Advisor ($TRIP), more correlated to that broader market, S&P 500, and so you see here that we started to get a lot of these clues here with the predicted moving average getting bearish, really going all the way back before we got into the month. And so this is one of these things where you can highlight those spots that are, if we’re going to get weakness out of the S&P, well, where are we likely to get the most weakness? And that’s where these Vantage Point predicted levels are going to again keep skewing bearish. In this case, we got a really nice move from these Vantage Point predicted highs that came through. You’ve already gotten about a nine, almost 10% decline just over the past 14 trading days. And then again, we can look at those predicted highs and lows. And so this is where it really gets exciting when you’re getting really great entries into the market, and then you can often just trail stops, right? So, if you’re able to get a really nice entry, take some profit along the way but just keep that bearish exposure in as the overall trend continues, and we, you know, continue to move lower here. So, you see, even recently, this week, uh, hitting some of these predicted high levels and trading lower once again. So, really nice decline here in Trip Advisor.

Salesforce ($CRM)

Uh, very similar situation here in Salesforce ($CRM). So you want to be, you know, careful again on where are you identifying opportunities on the bullish side. Well, obviously, here in Salesforce, you get that predicted moving average crossing bearish, and here you see this conflict, right, where the neural index gets bullish for these long periods of time, but you keep getting that skewing of the predicted moving average, letting you know, look, the overall trend is down. You may get these little bounces over these 48-hour periods, but those would better be used to actually set short positions, right? Or maybe buy some put options, uh, when we get up to these Vantage Point predicted high levels, and then again eventually move down. And then we see all that momentum pick up, uh, as we see again, more and more of the market turn, right? So, we can identify these areas of weakness, whether it’s in Trip Advisor, Salesforce, the S&P, uh, get some of that bearish exposure but also see that that’s starting to bring down again, even some of these other stocks that had done, uh, quite well.

Nike ($NKE)

More recently here in shares of Nike ($NKE). Now, there’s not that many bullish opportunities, but here’s a good example of how the short-term forecasts work. We see a strong crossover from that predicted moving average, neural index bullish goes to bearish, back to bullish, but look at these predicted high and low levels. So if you’re getting involved in the market, you’re doing it at very good price levels, and again, getting those nice entries, again, whether it’s on the bullish or the bearish side, you don’t really have to risk a whole lot for a long period of time to get that exposure. Uh, so here, you see Nike about a 4% rally over the past three trading days, and that’s typically not what we’re seeing spread out throughout the marketplace, uh, but here in Nike, again, seeing things perk up a little bit.

Nucor ($NUE)

Here are shares of Nucor, this being a steel stock, and we see that blue line crossing below the black line, neural index bullish. Then, we can really fine-tune, well okay, if we’ve got these predicted high and low ranges, at what point do we really want to be aware to go ahead and set those shorts and make money on the bearish side? So here’s, you know, really a good example of a lot of markets this week, right? And if you look at like IWM, a lot of indices like the SPY, you get this bullishness in the early part of the week, but it’s a great opportunity to set shorts, reset those shorts, and just take profit on the bearish side here.

Uh, and so, if you’re a short-term trader, this is again one of these, uh, you know, collection of these tools, you know, that can be really used to do that week to week. And when we start to see things shift to the upside, well, we’re going to see that spread out throughout the marketplace. You’re going to see that on, you know, the SPY ETF, but right now, things are really quite bearish.

Raytheon Technologies($RTX)

Um, so lastly, again, I just wanted to end here on Raytheon Technologies ($RTX), again another example of, uh, you know, identifying, okay, where is that strength in the market? We can look at those predicted highs and lows, and you actually see in Raytheon, here from last Friday, go down to this predicted low, up to the predicted high on Monday, down to this predicted low, up to the predicted high yesterday. But we start to see those predicted moving averages actually move below the actual moving average, so you see, you got a lot of conflict here. Uh, but since those forecasts had become bullish, well, there’s a really nice chunk of the market here, right? So, if you get ahead of this move, um, you know, even lock in our stops if we want to have a lot of cushion going into that earnings report. Um, but here, you see about a 12% rally, you know, just over the past 31 trading days. You know, over the past just week here, we can take a look at those most recent predicted highs and lows, you know, moving down to this predicted low, up to this Monday predicted high. You know, that alone there is a 1.6% move. So, it’s really hard to find these markets when we’re in these downtrends that are going to see these nice, you know, bullish movements up towards these predicted highs, but when you have these tools, it’s going to make it a lot easier, uh, to identify those better places of value to get involved in the market.

So we’ll go ahead and leave it there. Once again, this has been the Hot Stocks Outlook for April 19th, 2024. Thank you all for watching, best of luck, and bye for now.



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Is Gold a Good Investment During a Stock Market Crash?

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Contrary to popular belief, gold is not a good long-term investment compared to stocks. However, it can provide a good alternative investment asset during the early stages of a stock market crash.

Why is gold widely perceived as the best haven for your capital as the stock market goes through a bear market correction or a full market crash?

Is Gold a Good Investment During a Stock Market Crash?

Is Gold a Safe Haven During a Stock Market Crash?

Gold has long been seen as a haven during economic distress and stock market crashes. It is seen as one of the few asset classes that have historically held its value during market volatility. During periods of economic uncertainty, such as during a stock market crash, investors often turn to gold as an investment that can provide some protection against losses in other asset classes.

There are several reasons why gold can act as a safe haven during a stock market crash. The first is that the price of gold tends to remain relatively stable and does not fluctuate wildly like other investments such as stocks or bonds. Gold also preserves its purchasing power over time, maintaining its value even when compared to inflation-prone currencies such as the dollar or euro.

Additionally, gold prices tend to increase when investors sell off stocks and other assets to protect their portfolios from losses, thus providing investors with an extra layer of security during volatile times.

Gold’s status as a safe haven should not be taken for granted, though; its performance during times of economic crisis is not always certain. Many factors influence the price of gold, including global demand and supply levels, interest rates set by central banks, geopolitical tensions, production costs, and more. Therefore, investing in gold may not always be the safest option during a stock market crash and should be considered carefully with all available variables taken into account.

Why gold is a bad investment during a stock market crash

For several reasons, gold can be a bad investment during a stock market crash. First, gold prices are highly sensitive to market trends, so they can rise and fall quickly depending on how investors react to news and events. This means that even though gold tends to hold its value during times of volatility, it can still decline as investors rush to sell their holdings to protect their portfolios.

In addition, gold is not always guaranteed to provide investors with positive returns; the price may decline if global demand for gold decreases or production costs rise too high. Finally, investing in gold does not offer much liquidity because it is difficult to convert into cash quickly; therefore, investors may find themselves stuck with a large sum of money tied up in the metal at the worst possible time in the market cycle.

The facts about gold

For gold to be a good hedge, it would need to move in the opposite direction (have a negative correlation) to the broad market index, in this case, the S&P500. To protect your 401K, you would want to see evidence of gold being the right bet.

Looking back 15 years, we can see that this is not the case for Gold (GLD) compared to the market.

Gold vs the S&P500, 15 Year Monthly Chart Comparison
Gold vs. the S&P500, 15-Year Monthly Chart Comparison

2005 to 2007

Gold outperformed the S&P500 with 52% gains compared to 25% for the S&P500.

2007 to 2009

During the financial crisis, gold provided a haven for seven months until it lost all its gains. This meant those moving their capital to gold at the beginning of the crash would have made no profits. But if you had invested in gold in 2008, you would have incurred severe losses. This does not sound like a haven to me.

2009 to 2020

The S&P 500 goes on a staggering bull run, making 481% to January 2020

Gold made 138% from 2009 to 2012, moving in correlation with the market, then suffered a serious crash, wiping out 42% of its value. The crash and stagnation last eight years.

Gold is still 13% lower than its previous all-time high.

So, during an 11-year stock market bull run, gold lost 13% of its value.

My Observations

  1. Gold might provide a temporary solution as a haven during the early part of a stock market correction.
  2. During the Credit Crisis, Gold should have been a perfect store of value because, as it seemed, the Fiat Currency system was failing. Gold would have been a great replacement currency along with silver. But that did not work out.
  3. Gold is only a safe haven if people think it is.
  4. Since the 2009 stock market bottom, gold has increased by 65% and the SP500 by 232%.

Is gold a better long-term investment than the stock market?

The stock market offers investors higher returns than gold over the long term. However, many factors should be taken into consideration when making an investment decision. Gold is often seen as a safe haven during times of market volatility and economic distress, as its price tends to remain relatively stable, and it preserves its purchasing power over time. This makes gold an attractive option for investors looking to protect their portfolios from losses during periods of uncertainty.

However, it is important to note that gold prices can still decline if global demand decreases or production costs rise too high. Additionally, investing in gold does not guarantee positive returns, and it can be difficult to convert into cash quickly.

Ultimately, deciding whether to invest in stocks or gold depends on the individual investor’s risk appetite and financial goals. For those comfortable taking on more risk in exchange for potentially higher returns, investing in the stock market may provide a better long-term investment opportunity than gold.

On the other hand, those who prefer more conservative investments with lower volatility may find that investing in gold is a better option. Doing your own research and consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions is important.

Would I use gold as a safe haven?

Personally, no. Not based on this evidence. But in the short term, it may provide relief until people stop believing.

What is a good alternative? Holding cash and dollar-cost averaging into the market again as we near the bottom.

 

Stock Market Crashes: History, Cause, Effect & Fixes

What Caused the Stock Market Crash of 1929? A History

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Rules-Based Money Management – Part 1: Popular Indicators and Their Uses

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Note to the reader: This is the seventeenth in a series of articles I’m publishing here taken from my book, “Investing with the Trend.” Hopefully, you will find this content useful. Market myths are generally perpetuated by repetition, misleading symbolic connections, and the complete ignorance of facts. The world of finance is full of such tendencies, and here, you’ll see some examples. Please keep in mind that not all of these examples are totally misleading — they are sometimes valid — but have too many holes in them to be worthwhile as investment concepts. And not all are directly related to investing and finance. Enjoy! – Greg

To begin Part III: Rules-Based Money Management, we need to review a few basic technical indicators that are referenced frequently. Their concepts are used throughout this part of the book. Remember, Part III is the creating of the weight of the evidence to identify trends in the overall market, a ranking and selection process for finding securities to buy based on their individual and relative momentum, a set of rules and guidelines to provide you with a checklist on how to trade the information, and the results of my rules-based trend following strategy, called Dance with the Trend.

Moving Averages and Smoothing

Most times, daily stock market data is too volatile to analyze properly. What’s needed is a way of removing much of this daily volatility. There is such a method, and that is the subject of this section on smoothing techniques.

Smoothing refers to the act of making the time series data smoother to remove oscillations, but keeping the general trend. It is a better adverb to use than always trying to explain that you take a moving average of it or take the exponential average of it; just say you are smoothing it. Some of the advantages of doing this are:

  • Reducing day-to-day fluctuations.
  • Making it easier to identify trends.
  • Making it easier to see changes in trend.
  • Providing initial support and resistance levels.
  • Much better for trend following.

One of the simplest market systems created, the moving average, works almost as well as the best of the complicated smoothing techniques. A moving average is exactly the same as a regular average (mean), except that it “moves” because it is continuously updated as new data become available. Each data point in a moving average is given equal weight in the computation; hence, the term arithmetic, or simple, is sometimes used when referring to a moving average.

A moving average smooths a sequence of numbers so that the effects of short-term fluctuations are reduced, while those of longer-term fluctuations remain relatively unchanged. Obviously, the time span of the moving average will alter its characteristics.

J. M. Hurst, in The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing (1970), explained these alterations with three general rules:

  1. A moving average of any given time span exactly reduces the magnitude of the fluctuations of durations equal to that time span to zero.
  2. The same moving average also greatly reduces (but does not eliminate) the magnitude of all fluctuations of duration less than the time span of the moving average.
  3. All fluctuations that are greater than the time span of the average “come through,” or are present in the resulting moving average line. Those with durations just a little greater than the span of the average are greatly reduced in magnitude, but the effect lessens as periodicity duration increases. Very long duration periodicities come through nearly unscathed.

Simple or Arithmetic Moving Average

To take an average of just about any set of numbers or prices, you add up the numbers, then divide by the number of items. For example, if you have 4+6+2, the sum is 12, and the average is 12/3 = 4. A moving average does exactly this, but as a new number is added, the oldest number is removed. In the previous example, let’s say that 8 is the new number, so the new sequence would be 6+2+8. The original first number (4) was removed because we are only adding the most recent three numbers. In this case, the new average would be 16/3 = 5.33. So by adding an 8 and removing a 4, we increased the average by 1.33 in this example. For those so inclined, here’s the math: 8-4=4, and 4/3 =1.33.

Another feature of the simple moving average is that each component is treated equally — that is, it carries an equal weight in the calculation of the average. This is shown graphically in Figure 12.1. Note that it does not matter how many data points you are averaging; they each carry an equal contribution to the value of the average.

Because of the equal weighting of the data components in a simple moving average, the larger the average, the slower it will react to changes in price.

Let me share a little story about price charts and moving averages. Back in the 1980s, we had one of the original online services, called Prodigy. At one point, they started to provide some simple stock charts with a single moving average on them. I kept looking at it and knew something was wrong, because I had studied and created these types of charts for years. I finally discovered that they were using separate scales for the price and the price’s moving average. Although the values would be correct, the display was not because the average was using its isolated price scale. I wrote (yes, there was no e-mail then) them and explained. The first response was denial that they could be doing it wrong. I mailed them some charts showing their way and the proper way to display moving averages over price by sharing the same vertical scale. It took a long time and many letters before I finally convinced someone that they had it wrong. In appreciation, they sent me a small digital clock worth about $1.25 (battery not included).

Exponential Moving Average

This method of averaging was developed by scientists, such as Pete Haurlan, in an attempt to assist and improve the tracking of missile guidance systems. More weight is given to the most recent data, and it is therefore much faster to change direction and respond to changes in price. It is sometimes represented as a percentage (trend percent) instead of by the more familiar periods. For example, to calculate a 5% exponential average, you would take the last closing price and multiply it by 5%, then add this result to the value of the previous period’s exponential average value multiplied by the complement, which in this case is 1 –.05 =.95. Here is a formula that will help you convert between the two:

    K=2/(N + 1) where K is the smoothing constant (trend percent) and N is the number of periods.

    Algebraically solving for N: N =(2/K)-1.

For example, if you wanted to know the smoothing constant of a 19-period exponential average, you could do the math, K=2/(19 +1)=2/20=0.10 (smoothing constant), or 10% trend as it is many times expressed. In the example previously that used a 5% exponential average, the math is as follows:

    5% Exp Avg=(Current price x 0.05) + (Previous Exp Avg x 0.95)

Figure 12.2 shows how the weight of each component affects the average. The most recent data is represented by the far right on the graph.

Now for the really important piece of knowledge about the difference between the simple moving average and the exponential moving average. Notice in Figure 12.3 how long it takes the simple average (dashed) to reverse direction to the upside. From the time the price line climbs through the dashed line, it takes five to six days before the dashed line begins to rise in this example (upward arrow—SMA). In fact, immediately after the price goes below the dashed line, the dashed line is still falling. Both averages used the same number of periods.

Now note how quickly the darker exponential average changes direction when the price line moves through it (upward arrow—EMA). Immediately! Yes, because of the mathematics, the exponential average will always change direction as soon as the price line moves through it. That is why the exponential average is used, because it hugs the data tighter and eliminates much of the lag that is present in the simple average.

Now, when it comes to the question as to which is better, the answer is always that it depends on what you are trying to accomplish. Sometimes the simple average is better because of its lag, and sometimes not. The same goes for the exponential average; sometimes it is better, sometimes not. Personally, I have found that the exponential average is better for longer-term analysis, say, more than 65 periods (days). However, that becomes a personal preference as you build experience.

Stochastics

George Lane promoted it and Ralph Dystant probably created it; however, I know that Tim Slater, the creator of CompuTrac software in 1978, was probably the one that coined the name Stochastics. This is an odd name, as stochastic is a mathematical term that refers to the evolution of a random variable over time. Stochastics is a range-based indicator that normalizes price data over a selected period of time, usually 14 periods or days. It basically shows where the most recent price is relative to the full range of prices over the selected number of periods. This display of price location within a range of prices is scaled between 0 and 100. Usually there are two versions, one called %K, which is the raw calculation, and the other %D, which is just a three-period moving average of %K. Don’t get me started why there are two names for a calculation and its smoothed value. I met George Lane a number of times and found him to be a delightful gentleman; George passed away in 2008.

Personally, this is about my favorite price-based indicator. It seems that almost everyone uses Stochastics as an overbought/oversold indicator. While it is good in a trading range or sideways market, it does not work well in a trending market when used this way. However, it is also an excellent trend measure. This is good because many stocks and markets trend more than they go sideways.

So how does it work as a trend measure? If you think about the formula and realize that as long as prices are rising, then %K is going to remain at or near its highest level, say over 80. Therefore, as long as %K is over 80, you can assume you are in an uptrending market. Likewise, when %K is below 20 for a period of time, you are in a downtrending market. Personally, I like to use %D instead of %K for trend analysis, as it is smoother with less false signals.

Figure 12.4 shows a 14-day Stochastic with the S&P 500 Index above. The three horizontal lines on the Stochastic are at 20, 50, and 80.

If you use Stochastics as an overbought/oversold indicator, it will work better if you only take signals that are aligned with a longer-term trend. For example, if the general trend of the market is up, then only adhere to the buy signals from Stochastics. Finally, you are not restricted to the 80 and 20 levels to determine overbought and oversold, you can use any levels you feel comfortable with. In fact, if using %D for trend following, also using 30 and 70 will help eliminate whipsaws.

One of the really unique properties of this indicator is that it can be used to normalize data. Let me explain. If you wanted to see data prices that were contained within a range between 0 and 100, then this formula would do that. For example if you had a year’s worth of data, which is about 252 trading days, all you need is to merely set the number of periods for %K to 252 and you would be able to see where prices moved over the last year. This becomes especially valuable when comparing two different stocks or indices.

It should also be noted that Stochastics was designed to be used with data that contains the High, Low, and Close price. It can work with close-only data, but the formula must be adjusted accordingly.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

RSI was one of the first truly original momentum oscillator indicators that was created prior to desktop or personal computers. Welles Wilder laid out the concept on a columnar pad. Basically, RSI takes a weighted average of the last 14 days’ (if using 14 for the number of periods) up closes and divides by the last 14 days’ down closes. It is then normalized so that the indicator always reads between 0 and 100. Parameters often associated with RSI for overbought are when RSI is over 70, and oversold when it is below 30.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) can be used a number of different ways. Probably the most common is to use it the same as Stochastics in an overbought/oversold manner. Whenever RSI rises above 70 and then reverses direction and drops below 70, it is a sign that the down closes have increased relative to the up close and the market is declining. Although this method seems to always be popular, using RSI as a trend measure and one to help spot divergences with price seems like two better uses for RSI. Figure 12.5 shows RSI with the S&P 500 Index above. The horizontal lines on RSI are at 30, 50, and 70.

RSI is probably one of the most popular indicators ever developed. I think that is because most could not generate the formula themselves if it were not a mainstay in almost every technical analysis software package. Wilder developed it using a columnar pad and had to come up with a way to do a weighted average of the up and down closes. It is not a true weighted average, but gets the job done.

One of the really big problems that I see with RSI is that in long continuous trends, it can be using some relatively old data as part of its calculation. For an example, let’s say the stock is in an uptrend and has been for a while. The denominator is the average of the down closes in the last 14 days. If the uptrend is strong, there might not be any down closes for a period of time. If there were not any in the last 14 days, without the Wilder smoothing technique, the denominator would be equal to zero, and that would render the indicator useless. Because of this situation, the calculation for RSI can use relatively old data. That is why RSI seems to work well as a divergence indicator, because of the old data. This is generally caused by the fact that the previous up trend keeps the denominator, which uses down closes, fairly inactive, but once the down closes started hitting again, it has a strong effect on RSI.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is a concept using two exponential averages developed by Gerald Appel. It was originally developed as the difference between the 12- and 26-day exponential averages; the same as a moving average crossover system, with the periods of the two averages being 12 and 26. The resulting difference, called the MACD line, is then smoothed with a nine-day exponential average, which is referred to as the signal line. Gerald Appel originally designed this indicator using different parameters for buy and sell signals, but that seems to have faded away and almost everyone now uses the 12–26–9 combination for both buy and sell. The movement of the MACD line is the measurement of the difference between the two moving averages. When MACD is at its highest point, it just means that the two averages are at their greatest distance apart (with short above long). And when the MACD is at its lowest level, it just means the two averages are at their greatest distance apart when the short average is below the long average. It really is a simple concept and is a wonderful example of the benefits of charting, because it is so easy to see.

MACD, and in particular, the concept behind it, is an excellent technical indicator for trend determination. Not only that, but it also shows some information that can be used to determine overbought and oversold, as well as divergence. You could say it does almost everything.

Figure 12.6 shows the MACD with the S&P 500 Index above. The solid line is the 12–26 MACD line and the dotted line is the nine period average.

Please keep this in mind: Although MACD is a valuable indicator for trend analysis, it is only the difference between two exponential moving averages. In fact, if you used price and one moving average, it would be similar in that one of the moving averages was using a period of one. This is not rocket science! Figure 12.6 is an example of MACD with its signal line.

A Word of Caution

Technical indicators generally deal with price and volume. Price involves the open, high, low, and close values. There are literally hundreds, if not thousands, of technical indicators that utilize these price components. These indicators use various parameters to make the indicator useful in analyzing the market.

Generally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered an overbought/oversold indicator, while Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is considered a trend indicator. With an intentional reworking of the parameters used in each, Figure 12.7 shows both the RSI and MACD of the S&P 500 Index.

Notice that they both look almost exactly the same. When you are working with only price or its components, you must be careful to not overanalyze or over-optimize the indicator or you will just be looking at the same information. See the section on Multicollinearity in previous articles for more evidence of this potential problem.

There are a host of money management techniques that have surfaced in the investment community. Each has its merits and each has its shortcomings. This section is provided to complement the book’s completeness, and does not dwell into the details.

The Binary Indicator

This part of the book also shows many charts of market data and indicators. Many will include what is called a binary measure. Binary means that it only gives two signals; it is either on or off, similar to a simple digital signal.

Figure 12.8 is a chart of an index in the top plot and an indicator in the bottom plot. The signals generated by the indicator are whenever it crosses the zero line shown on the lower plot. Whenever the indicator is above the line, it means the trend is up, and whenever the indicator is below the line, it means the trend is down (not up). To further simplify that concept, the tooth-like pattern, called the binary and overlaid on the indicator, gives the exact same information without all the volatility of the indicator. Notice that when the indicator is above the horizontal signal line that the binary is also above the line, and whenever the indicator is below the horizontal line, so is the binary. With that, we can then plot the binary directly on top of the index in the top plot and see the signals. In fact, with this knowledge, the entire bottom plot could be removed and no essential information would be lost.

Other conventions adapted to Part III of this book that you need to know are that, when discussing indicators or market measures, there are parameters used to give them specific values based on periods. A period can be any measure of time, hourly, daily, weekly, and so on. Here we will always stick to using daily analysis unless addressed locally. The terms issue and security are often used; I will stick to using ETFs as the investment vehicle.

When showing many measures that are in the same category, such as ranking measures, I attempt to show them individually, but over the same period of time using the same ETF, such as the SPY.

How Compound Measures Work

Before moving on, a concept needs to be explained. Figure 12.9 will help you understand how a compound measure works. First, you need to know that this is not a complex system; whenever two of the three indicators are in agreement, the compound measure moves in the same direction. This means that all three could be signaling, but it only takes two to accomplish the goal.

In Figure 12.9 the top plot is the Nasdaq Composite. The next three plots contain the binary indicators for the three components; in this example, they are called 1, 2, and 3. There are four instances of signals from those three components, labeled in the top plot as A, B, C, and D. Let’s go through them, starting with signal A. Notice that there are two vertical lines, with the first one being created by indicator 3. Then notice how indicator 3 dropped from its high position to its low position; that is a binary signal from indicator 3. The next vertical line shows up when indicator 2 drops to its low position. We now have two of the three indicators dropping to their low position, which means the compound binary indicator overlaid on the Nasdaq Composite in the top plot now drops to its low position.

The second signal, at B, occurs when both indicator 2 and 3 both drop to their low position at the same time; once again, this is a signal for the compound binary in the top plot to drop to its low position. Moving over to signal C, you can see that indicator 3 rose to its top position followed a few days later by indicator 2 rising to its top position, which in turn causes the compound binary in the top plot to rise to its top position.

Example D below shows indicator 2 dropping to its low position. This has caused the compound binary to drop because, if you will notice, indicator 3 had already dropped to its low position many days prior to that of indicator 2. In example D, notice that both indicator 2 and 3 both rose on the same day and indicated by the rightmost vertical line, which of course caused the compound binary to also rise. The concept is simple; it only takes two of the three indicators to control the compound binary in the top plot. It does not matter which two it is or in what combination. As you can hopefully see, the process could be expanded to using five indicators and using the best three of the five.

Now try to figure out the compound measure below without any visual or verbal assistance. In Figure 12.10, the top plot contains the Nasdaq Composite and the compound binary. There are binaries for three indicators below and they work just like the example above, any two that are on is a signal for the compound binary to move in the same direction. Good luck.

Thanks for reading this far. I intend to publish one article in this series every week. Can’t wait? The book is for sale here.

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Price Action Day Trader User Manual

Post By Stock

This is user manual for Expert Advisor Price Action DayTrader.

This EA was created to help all day traders using price action to distance themselves from the emotional influence caused by instant market monitoring and routine decisions to open and close trades which is the source of most trading mistakes.

Price Action DayTrader enables focusing exclusively on high-level market analysis, while the ongoing tactical decision-making during daily sessions is taken care of automatically.

EA works with trading range and market sentiment. Trading range is an area you plan to trade within in a daily session. Market sentiment then determines which trading direction is preffered for particular trading session (Buy, Sell or both).

EA identifies bullish price rejections in lower half of trading range and buys towards top of range. In upper half of trading range it identifies bearish price rejections and sells towards bottom of trading range.

Market analysis

The key for successful using this EA is to perform high level market analysis upfront of each trading session and adjust EA to current market conditions. AS a trader, you need to identify trading range for current day session and general market sentiment (section Market conditions of input parameters).

Despite there is whole bunch of parameters to control and fine tune behaviour of DayTrader, this is the minimum you need to do on daily basis. Everything else, like identifying trading signals, opening trades, taking profits and handling risk is then all covered by EA. Nevertheless, even during active trading session you are still able to manually adjust EA’s behaviour through control panel.

I strongly recommend to test this EA on demo account to obtain confidence in using it and build solid strategy for identifying trading range and market trend. Once you have strategy in place it could be backtested with bulk market data, see chapter Backtesting EA.

Trading range

Trading range should be identified on a higher timframe than is the on you plan to trade on and should corresponds to the timeframe set in Range breakout section of input parameters.

Top of trading range or range maximummum is a maximal sell price for day session (highest price below which it is still worthwhile to sell), range minimum is a minimal buy price (lowest price above which it is still worthwhile to buy).

EA buys in lower half of trading range and sells in higher half trading range, depending on market sentiment. Line marking center of trading range and separanting “buy and sell areas” is called balance point.

Market sentiment determines what types of trades are allowed during trading session. Buy sentiment means that buyers control the market and therefor EA is focused only on buy trading signals. Similarly in Sell market sentiment sellers are expected to control the market and EA picks only sell signals. Consolidation then means that there is no signifficant sentiment in the market and EA accepts both buy and sell trading signals. It is assumed that buyer and sellers are more or less in balance.


Example of trading range with emphasized buy and sell areas. Balance point (dark blue)  is a center of trading range. EA sells above balance point and buys below.

Price rejection

EA identifies price rejections using combination of fractal and price action patterns engulfing or pinbar. Rejection is marked in the chart by arrow. It is marked on the candle, where rejection is confirmed (depending on fractal setup). Each type of rejection (engulfing 1, engulfing 2 and pinbar) can be enabled/disabled by input parameters (see section Price rejection). If all three price rejections are disabled, EA identifies price rejections only by fractal.

  • Engulfing (type 1) – classic definition of engulfing price action pattern. Consists of two candles and
    • Body of last candle > engulfing ratio * body of previous candle.
    • Bull: Last candle is bullish, previous candle is bearish.
    • Bear: Last candle is bearish, previous is bullish.
  • Engulfing (type 2) – loosely defined engulfing. Definition consists of three candles. Conditions that apply on last candle in classic engulfing definition, must apply on last two candles.
    • Sum of bodies of last two candles > engulfing ratio times * body of previous candle.
    • Bull: First candle bearish, last two bullish
    • Bear: First candle bullish, last two bearish.

  • Pinbar
    • Bull: Lower wick > pinbar ratio * body.
    • Bear: Upper wick > pinbar ratio * body.

Trading signal

Trading signal consists of market sentiment, correct position of market price within trading range and confirmation by price rejection. Rejection is combination of fractal with price action pattern engulfing or pinbar.

  • BUY:
    • Market sentiment is BUY or Consolidation.
    • Price is below balance point.
    • One of two following situations occurs
  1. Price rejection is formed near (within stop loss limit) range minimum. Range minimum is then a stop loss for potential buy trade. This is reffered to as a range rejection.
  2. For newly formed price rejection EA is able to find previous, lower price rejection. If previous price rejection is within stop loss limit from market price, it is then a stop loss for new buy trade. This is reffered to as a double rejection.
  • SELL:
    • Market sentiment is SELL or Consolidation.
    • Price is above balance point.
    • One of two following situations occurs
    1. Price rejection occurs near (within stop loss limit) range maximum. Range maximum is then a stop loss for potential sell trade. This is reffered to as a range rejection.
    2. For newly formed price rejection EA is able to find previous, higher price rejection. If previous price rejection is within stop loss limit from market price, it is then a stop loss for potential buy trade. This is reffered to as a double rejection.


    SELL trade opened on range rejection trading signal.


    SELL trade opened on double rejection trading signal.

    Stop loss

    Stop loss is either boundary of trading range (range minimum for buy, range maximum for sell) or in case of double rejection it is previous price rejection.

    Another alternative for managing risk and protect profits is to use trailing stop, see Trailing stop section in chapter Input parameters.

    Target

    Target of a trade is by default opposite boundary of trading range. If target is not set, trade lasts until end of trading session (see input parameter Target in Trading session section). If partial profit is enabled, target of first trade is set to size of stop loss.

    Number of open positions and partial profit

    Normally EA opens only one position at a time with position size of input parameter Position size. As long as there is any open position, EA does not follow does not monitor trading signals nor does not open any new position. If partial profit is enbaled, EA opens two positions, each of input parameter Position size. First position has profit target set to size of stop loss, second position according to input parameter Target.

    Trading range breakout

    Breaking through range maximum or minimum is defined as folows: Candle of higher timeframe (timeframe defined in Range breakout section of input parameters) closed above range maximum or below range minimum. After range maximum or minimum is broken, appropriate line disappears from chart and condition for balance point is no longer applied in trading signal. If e.g. range maximum is broken, buy trade is opened anytime market price is close to range minimum or anytime occurs double price rejection.

    EA’s behaviour after range is broken is controled by input parameters in section Range breakout.

    Trading session

    • Trade session start – Start time of trading session in timezone of your broker, format <hh:mi>.
    • Trade session end – End time of trading session in timezone of your broker.
    • Position opening until – Time threshold for opening new positions in your broker’s timezone. No new positions are opened beyond this time, but trading session is still active, controling target(s) of open position(s).
    • Action on end of trading session – What should happen after trading session finishes.
      • Close all positions – EA closes all open positions, goes to inactive mode after session ends, but will start operating with the same inputs on the next day with the start of new trading session.
      • Close all positions and disable trading – Trading is disabled (no new trades are being opened) until it is manually enabled in control panel. This allows to keep EA active, but at the same it prevents EA from opening trades on next trading session with obsolete market conditions.
    • Position size – Lot.
    • Max stop loss – Maximal allowed size of stop loss for one single trade in points.
    • Max day loss – Maximal limit for daily loss in points. Daily loss is calculated as a sum of all loss trades on trading account during trading session (not only for particular instance of DayTrader). Limit is for single instance of EA. Trades with risk that would overlap Max day loss limit won’t be placed.
      Actual day loss is visible in control panel.
    • Offset added to SL value – Offset in points to be added to calculated SL of every newly opened position. Positive value increases SL size, negative decreses SL.
    • Target
      • Close with end of session – Target of newly opened position is set to 0 and position will be closed with end of session, no matter whether it is in profit or loss.
      • Opposite range – Target is set to range maximum for newly opened buy positions and to range minimum for sell positions. Should range be broken, target is set to 0 and positions are closed with end of trading session.
    • Offset added to target value – Offset in points to be added to calculated target value, in case opposite range is opted. Positive value increases target size, negative decreses.
    • EA Magic number – Unique identifier of EA instance. This is important in particular if there are multiple instances of DayTrader in paralel on one account. In this case, each instance should have unique Magic number. Otherwise instances could affect each other’s positions.

    Market conditions

    • Market sentiment – General market sentiment for the day session. Sentiment determines what type of orders will be allowed during trading session (Buy or Sell). Consolidation then enables placing both type of orders depending on trading signal.
      • Buy zone – Market has a buying preference. EA opens only buy trades.
      • Sell zone – Market has a selling preference. EA is only selling.
      • Consolidation – Market is moving sideways, consolidating. EA opens both buy and sell trades.
    • Range max – Top of daily range.
    • Range min – Bottom of daily range.
    • Load market conditions from file and File name – Enables bulk load of market data for multiple day from csv file. See chapter Bactesting.

    Partial profit

    • Partial profit enabled – If enabled, EA on trading signal opens two positions each of size Position size.
    • Move SL of 2nd position to open price – If true, after target of first position is reached, SL of last remaning position is updated to open price (it is updated slightly above or below open price, depending on Move SL 2nd position offset)
    • Move SL of 2nd position offset – Offset added to open price, if previous parameter is true (positive value goes to profit, negative to loss compared to open price).

    Trailing stop

    • Minimal position size – Profit size in points that position has to reach for trailing stop to be activated.
    • Size of trailing stop – The percentage size of drawdown from the maximum profit to close the trade.
    • 2nd position – Same meaning as previous two params, but used for second position if partial profit is enabled.

    Price rejection

    This part specifies price action patterns that marks price rejections inducing trading signal. By default EA uses for identifying price rejections fractal combined with pinbar or engulfing price patterns.

    • Price rejection by pinbar – if true, price rejection by pinbar pattern is enabled.
    • Pinbar ratio – Minimal wick to body size ratio for pinbar to be valid.
    • Price rejection by engulfing type 1– If true, rejection by classic price action pattern engulfing is enabled. Obviously fractal can occur on first or second candle.
    • Price rejection by engulfing type 2 – If true, more loosely defined engulfing rejection is enabled, also in combination with fractal. In this case it is used same ratio, but condition is applied on last two candles, instead of one as in case of engulfing type 1.
    • Engulfing ratio – Ratio of last candle’s body to previous candle’s body (for engulfing type 2 this applies to sum of bodies of last two candles to previous candle body).
    • Fractal factor – Number of candles to the left and right, that must have higher low (lower fractal) or lower high (upper fractal) than fractal candle. E.g. for fractal factor 3 (which is on pictures of price rejections and trading signal above) – there are three candles with lower high to the left and to the right from fractal candle.
    • Previous rejection offset – This is used only for double rejection trading signal. Determines minimal distance(number of bars) between two price rejections for trading signal to be valid.
    • Double rejection trading signal enabled – true enables trading signal type double rejection.
    • Range rejection trading signal enabled – true enables trading signal type range rejection.

    Range breakout

    Controls action to be performed when day range is broken. Broken means that bar on higher timeframe closes above range maximum or below range minimum.

    • Higher timeframe confirming breakout – Timeframe for breakout confirmation.
    • Action on breaking of range max
      • Update zone – Market sentiment is changed to Buy (if it’s not buy already) and all sell positions are closed. Range max is no longer valid. New trades are opened whenever trading signal occurs, but there is no condition for price position within range since there is no range anymore.
      • Disable trading – All sell trades are closed and opening of new ones is disabled until it is manually enabled in control panel.
    • Action on breaking of range min
      • Update zone – Market sentiment is changed to Sell (if it’s not Sell already) and all buy trades are closed. Range min is no longer valid. New positions are opened whenever trading signal occurs, but there is no condition for price position within range since there is no range anymore.
      • Disable trading – All buy trades are closed and opening of new trades is disabled until it is manually enabled in control panel.

    Slippage protection

    This provides protection against market slippage – strong price movements in the period of high volatility and insufficient liquidity (typically caused by signifficant market fundamental data). This affects only open positions.

    • Time to apply protection – Time when protection should be applied during trading session. In 24 hour format and time zone of your broker.
    • Action to apply
      • Update stop loss – SL of open positions will be changed by Ratio to update size of SL: New SL = ratio * old SL.
      • Close all positions.

    Control panel

    Control panel is placed in right top corner in chart area. It provides basic info about current session and also enables to control EA’s behaviour without reloading it.

    It can by minimized/maximized by “-” placed in right side of control panel’s top bar.

    Most of the items in control panel corresponds directly to input parameters and their meaning is obvious. But there are some, that deserves extra attention.

    • End session action – corresponds to input parameter action on end of trading session.
    • Actual day loss – total day loss on trading account. Sum of all loss on actual trading account during trading session. Limit for absolute maximal day loss is set by input parameter Max day loss.
    • Target, Target 1 and Target 2 – This is absolute price set as a target for open position. Appers in control panel only if there is any open position. If partail profit is enabled, there two values for each open position (Target 1 and Target 2), if partial profit is disabled, only one value appears in control panel.
    • Following two items are visible only if Partial profit is enabled:
      • Move SL to open price – corresponds to input parameter Move SL of 2nd position to open price.
      • Move SL offset – corresponds to input parameter Move SL of 2nd position offset
    • Trail stop min – correspond to input parameter Minimal position size
    • Trail stop ratio – corresponds to input parameter Size of trailig stop
    • Items TS 2nd pos min and TS 2nd pos ratio are visible only if partial profit is enabled and relates to second position.
    • Slip. prot. time – time to apply slippage protection, corresponds to input parameter Time to apply protection.
    • Slippage prot. action – corresponds to input parameter Action to apply while Slippage protection ratio corresponds to Ratio to update size of SL.
    • Trading session – Indicates whether session is active with respect to defined start and end of trading session.
    • Trading – Enabled/Disabled. Toggle button to manually enable or disable trading.

    Please note that control panel refreshs with new tick so there could be delays before updated value appears – especially during periods with low volatility.

    Despite this EA requires fresh market data on daily basis, it is still possible to run bulk backtest with market data. Instead of setting up market conditions for every single day by input parameters you can use csv file containing bulk market data for every day you want to back test. This is enabled/disabled by input parameter Load market conditions from file. CSV file has to be placed in directory CommonFiles in metatrader installation root. Name corresponds to input parameter File name.

    Structure of csv file:
    [date:dd.mm.yyyy];[zone:buy|sell|cons];[range max];[range min]

    01.09.2022;cons;1.0079;0.9971
    02.09.2022;cons;1.0048;0.991
    05.09.2022;sell;0.9936;0.9879
    06.09.2022;cons;0.9971;0.9942
    07.09.2022;cons;0.9929;0.9876
    08.09.2022;buy;1.0033;0.9979
    09.09.2022;buy;1.0084;1.0061

    There is a sample csv test file attached containing market data for forex pair EURUSD in the period of 01/09/2021 – 31/01/2023. Data are based on H1 timeframe market analysis (input parameter Higher timframe confirming breakout) with EA operating on M15 timeframe with default parameters. Runnig DayTrader with this data in Strategy tester might be best way to understand how DayTrader operates and also good basis for building your own test data set based on any market analysis strategy you want to implement.

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    #Price #Action #Day #Trader #User #Manual

    Avoid Making This Common Mistake in a Bull Run – Fat Tail Daily

    Post By Stock

    In today’s Fat Tail Daily, The bull market in gold is now well underway. This has sparked renewed buying of gold stocks from the broader market investors. Unbeknownst to many, bull markets pose more danger to investors than bear markets, especially in the bubble phase. Read on to find out what these risks are and how you can avoid the common mistakes many make…

    If you’re unaware of it already, the bull market in gold is now well underway.

    This has sparked renewed buying of gold stocks from the broader market investors.

    For some time, gold stocks have trailed behind gold. There’s a yawning valuation gap between them.

    Now we’re watching the gap close, potentially delivering exceptional returns last seen in 2019–20.

    While many will have a newfound love for gold stocks, which they once shunned, few realise the hidden dangers of buying into a raging bull market.

    What dangers are there?

    Unbeknownst to many, bull markets pose more danger to investors than bear markets, especially in the bubble phase.

    Some fear exiting their positions too early. However, many end up giving back most, all or more than their gains by overstaying their welcome.

    I’ll write about how to avoid this risk in today’s article.

    On the verge of a powerful gold bull market

    Gold has done well since 2021. It’s trading more than 25% higher in US dollar terms.

    In our currency, gold’s up by over 40%, making it a phenomenal run the past three years.

    If you look closer at the figure below, you’ll see that gold is in a bullish setup, though it experienced a lull during 2022:

    This lull coincided with the central banks attempting to control inflation by aggressively raising interest rates.

    However, that rate rise cycle appears to have ended. But inflation has recently reared its ugly head again with the US CPI readings for March coming out last week.

    Add to that the Federal Open Market Committee releasing a statement last month suggesting that it expects to cut the Federal Funds Rate three times this year.

    This is why you’re seeing gold shift to high gear, setting up for what appears to be a parabolic move.

    Now you’d expect that gold’s run would have taken gold stocks with it. However, that hasn’t been the case…until recently.

    Let me show you the relative performance of gold, the established gold producers (reflected by the ASX Gold Index [ASX:XGD]) and the early-stage explorers and developers (reflected by my in-house Speculative Gold Stocks Index) over the same period:

    Notice a significant gap between gold and gold stocks?

    This starkly contrasts the last three gold bull markets of 2009–11, 2015–16 and 2019–20.

    Let me show you what I mean:

    During those periods, there was a shorter latency between gold gaining momentum and gold stocks following suit.

    This time, gold has come off its lows almost 18 months ago. Meanwhile, dozens of gold stocks, especially the smaller explorers, are barely trading above their recent cyclical lows.

    But the tide is turning quickly. There’s potential for it to become a violent rally.

    Look no further than what happened to gold explorers in 2020, as you saw in the above figure.

    Keeping your wins…and focusing on asset values.

    This leads to the question everyone wants an answer to: How can you capture as much of the potential windfall gains in the coming bull market as possible?

    For every bull market, many more investors rode it up, rack up significant paper gains only to give most of it back, if not more.

    Few can walk away with their massive gains intact.

    When there’s momentum in the rally, euphoria kicks in. In such times, staying rational and not losing your head is difficult.

    I can speak from experience, having lived through two gold bull markets. While I was happy with my gains, I think I can do better in this coming one.

    Now I’m not just saying this for the sake of it.

    I’ve got a plan.

    I’d like to share a little about this plan. But the intricate details will be in my newsletter. I’ll tell you how to become a member later.

    But it comes down to this.

    In every bull market, there are typically three stages.

    The first stage is ‘overcoming the wall of worry’. As a particular group of assets begins rallying, the market is in doubt. They believe it’s merely a bounce and that there’ll be a correction or pullback that erases the gains.

    The next stage is when the market sees the rally is genuine. Many investors who were initially watching the action will participate. Their buying will provide further momentum.

    The final stage is the ‘manic phase’ where the momentum begets more buying to the point prices go parabolic. At this stage, the mood for this asset class is one of unbridled optimism. Valuation and fundamentals are out the window. Prices are driven predominantly by momentum, rather than sensible valuations.

    My observation is most investors are late to the first stage and hang out for too long in the final stage.

    The problem is that they don’t know how to value these assets, often their decisions are based on following the crowd.

    This makes them easy prey to a discerning investor who profits from the collective ignorance.

    But if you base your investment decisions on value, this will help you avoid becoming a victim of herd mentality. You’ll tend not to overstay your welcome in a bull market or dump good stocks in a bear market.

    Value provides an anchor to help you keep your head when others lose it.

    From my experience investing in gold stocks over the past decade, I’ve learned how to estimate the value of gold stocks across different stages. I’ve even developed my own unique metrics that account for economic conditions, company operations and financial position, and investor sentiment.

    I deploy these tools in the hope that I’ll steer my portfolio and that of my newsletter readers to better returns.

    If you’re interested in finding out more, why not check out my precious metals’ investment newsletter, The Australian Gold Report?

    I’d like to invite you to watch this video where my colleague, Greg Canavan, and I talk about the recent events in this space and the opportunities at play.

    I’ve even discuss three gold producers to help you build your portfolio.

    Don’t hesitate! The moment for gold to shine is happening right in front of us.

    God bless,

    Brian Chu Signature

    Brian Chu,
    Editor, Gold Stock Pro and The Australian Gold Report

    Brian Chu is one of Australia’s foremost independent authorities on gold and gold stocks, with a unique strategy for valuing big producers and highly speculative explorers. He established a private family fund that only invests in ASX-listed gold mining companies, possibly the only such fund in Australia, putting his strategy and research skills to the test under public scrutiny. He currently writes two gold-focused investment advisories.

    In his Australian Gold Report, Brian shows you a strategy for building long-term wealth in physical gold, along with a select portfolio of hand-picked stocks, mainly producers with proven revenue streams, chosen for their balance of risk and reward.

    In his more specialised Gold Stock Pro service, Brian helps readers trade some of the most exciting, speculative gold mining plays on the ASX. He uses his proprietary system — based on the famous Lassonde Curve model, which tracks the life cycle of mining stocks. His aim is to help you get ready to trade the next phase of gold and silver’s anticipated longer-term bull market for opportunities to benefit.

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    #Avoid #Making #Common #Mistake #Bull #Run #Fat #Tail #Daily