‘Things have not been easy for us’: My sister is a hoarder and procrastinator. She is delaying probate of our parents’ estate. What can I do?

I am in my early 50s, divorced and working full time, and have been raising my only child, a teenage daughter, alone for the past 12 years. My daughter is estranged from her father, who pays child support. We live in Connecticut.

My parents are both deceased as of last year. I moved out of the family home 34 years ago. I have one sibling: a slightly older sister who never moved out of the family home, never went to college, never married, never had a driver’s license, and has no children. I don’t believe she has ever had to pay rent.  

My parents, my sister and I are civil servants with pensions. My sister has done quite well with a high-school degree, and is already eligible to retire. Her job gives her a lot of time off, including holidays and the entire summer. 

When our last parent became ill, she became their caretaker. There was plenty of money between pensions and retirement accounts that she was able to use for home healthcare, medical expenses, household expenses and eventually funeral expenses.

‘She never stopped working’

She never stopped working through all of this, and had power of attorney on all their accounts. She was evasive with me about the amount of money she was overseeing, and I never pushed the issue.  

My parents’ house has been paid off for several years now and both parents’ names are on the deed. They had no will, but named us both as equal beneficiaries on all accounts. Those funds have been distributed.

My sister has been avoiding the issue of probate for several months. She continues to be evasive about the continuing costs associated with the house, but assures me everything is being paid. She has a history of procrastination and has been hoarding for decades. As time goes on, there is noticeably less space to stand inside the house. 

Through probate, the house and our parents’ belongings are due to be split between the two of us. Since I can’t envision my sister ever finding the wherewithal to move out or prepare the house for sale, I would want her to buy out my half of the house so that my daughter and I can live a more secure life.

Finished paying off loans

We rent, and things have not been easy for us. I paid my own way through college and finished paying all my loans off three years ago. I plan to send my daughter to college in a few years and have a 529 plan for her that’s only worth about $15,000. I’ve been sacrificing a lot to put aside retirement money for a long time, but I will probably never feel confident that it’s enough. 

My sister has been busying herself with many activities that she claims are the reason we can’t get this probate process started now. People around me are urging me to be more assertive. I’ve called the appropriate town offices, and I have a certified copy of the deed to the house and some of the applications in hand, but I don’t feel qualified to do this correctly on my own.

I know there are mediators and lawyers that can help, but I don’t know the best way to take control of this situation without spending a ton of money. What do you suggest would be the fairest and fastest way to get this going when one person is passively resisting?

Feeling Stuck

Related: My mom had a trust, so why do we still need probate to settle her estate?

“The good news is that all of the lawyer’s fees will likely be paid out of your parents’ estate, so you will have no upfront legal costs.”


MarketWatch illustration

Dear Stuck,

It’s time to call a lawyer. Delaying this process could cost you dearly.

In Connecticut, you have up to 30 days to file for probate; after that, you could incur fines. “Probate fees are established by statute and are uniform throughout the state,” according to the Connecticut probate-court system. “Interest at the rate of 0.5% per month accrues on all unpaid fees on decedents’ estates beginning 30 days after the date of the invoice, or, if a Connecticut estate tax return has not been filed within the time required, beginning 30 days after the return was due.” You can access an online calculator to estimate probate-court fees here

The good news is that all of the lawyer’s fees will likely be paid out of your parents’ estate, so you will have no upfront legal costs. The executor should have been chosen by the person who wrote the will; if your sister is unable to take on these responsibilities, talk to a trust-and-estate attorney about petitioning the court to remove your sister as executor. It may be that you decide to keep your sister as executor but, after explaining to her the financial implications, you proceed with the help of your attorney.

Your sister has proven herself to be a hard worker, by your own account, but she needs help with this process, and she needs help with the other aspects of her life. Removing her as executor would be time consuming and onerous. Possible reasons for removing an executor include egregious behavior like stealing from or wasting the assets of the estate, or lack of cooperation with the administration of the estate. Removal of an executor can be a complicated and costly process, and one that risks squandering even more money from your parents’ estate.

Personal issues

The legal aspect to your story has, perhaps inevitably, become intertwined with your personal histories. You identify your sister in your letter primarily by what she does not have: a husband, children, a driver’s license, etc. But she has also proven herself to be capable and have many other positive qualities: She was a caregiver, and worked hard as a civil servant to build up a pension to enable her to retire. What she lacks now is support, which both you and an attorney can provide. The nature of that support is legal, practical and also emotional. Providing the latter may be the key to the rest. 

Hoarding disorder is recognized as a mental-health condition by the medical profession. An outsider may see dust and dirt, in addition to cramped and possibly dangerous living conditions, but they don’t always see what lies beneath: fear, pain and potentially other neuropsychiatric disorders, including obsessive-compulsive disorder. Your sister would, of course, need to be diagnosed by a medical professional. Procrastination is also positively correlated with anxiety. Again, outsiders may mistake this for being uninterested or lazy.

It may be that being frustrated with your sister is a familiar feeling, and one you are willing to endure. But just as your sister should not be allowed to let her very significant issues interfere with probating your parents’ estate, you also should not let your relationship with your sister stop you from taking action. First, you will have the legal process, which will unfold if you seek help from an attorney. After that, you will have the equally important task of encouraging your sister to seek the support of a therapist who may be able to help her move forward.

Your probate stalemate shows that no one problem exists in isolation. 

You can email The Moneyist with any financial and ethical questions at [email protected], and follow Quentin Fottrell on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. 

The Moneyist regrets he cannot reply to questions individually.

Previous columns by Quentin Fottrell:

I have $1.5 million in stocks and bonds. I asked my broker to convert my bonds to cash. He didn’t and my portfolio fell by $100,000. Can I sue?

‘She was very special to me’: My late 98-year-old cousin was targeted by grifters. They stole $800,000. Do I have any recourse?

‘It was a mistake’: My father set up a revocable trust, leaving everything to my stepmother. She’s cutting me out completely. What can I do?

Check out the Moneyist private Facebook group, where we look for answers to life’s thorniest money issues. Post your questions, or weigh in on the latest Moneyist columns.

By emailing your questions to the Moneyist or posting your dilemmas on the Moneyist Facebook group, you agree to have them published anonymously on MarketWatch.

By submitting your story to Dow Jones & Co., the publisher of MarketWatch, you understand and agree that we may use your story, or versions of it, in all media and platforms, including via third parties.



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Former hedge fund star says this is what will trigger the next bear market.

Much of Wall Street expects easing inflation, but an overshoot could dash hopes of a May rate cut, curtailing the S&P 500’s
SPX
waltz with 5,000, warn some.

Read: Arm’s frenzied stock rally continues as AI chase trumps valuation.

What might take this market down eventually? Our call of the day from former hedge-fund manager Russell Clark points to Japan, an island nation whose central bank is one of the last holdouts of loose monetary policy.

Note, Clark bailed on his perma bear RC Global Fund back in 2021 after wrongly betting against stocks for much of a decade. But he’s got a whole theory on why Japan matters so much.

In his substack post, Clark argues that the real bear-market trigger will come when the Bank of Japan ends quantitative easing. For starters, he argues we’re in a “pro-labor world” where a few things should be playing out: higher wages and lower jobless levels and interest rates higher than expected. Lining up with his expectations, real assets started to surge in late 2023 when the Fed started to go dovish, and the yield curve began to steepen.

From that point, not everything has been matching up so easily. He thought higher short-term rates would siphon off money from speculative assets, but then money flowed into cryptos like Tether and the Nasdaq recovered completely from a 2022 rout.

“I have been toying with the idea that semiconductors are a the new oil – and hence have become a strategic asset. This explains the surge in the Nasdaq and the Nikkei to a degree, but does not really explain tether or bitcoin very well,” he said.

So back to Japan and his not so popular explanation for why financial/speculative assets continue to trade so well.

“The Fed had high interest rates all through the 1990s, and dot-com bubble developed anyway. But during that time, the Bank of Japan only finally raised interest rates in 1999 and then the bubble burst,” he said.

He notes that when Japan began to tighten rates in late 2006, “everything started to unwind,” adding that the BOJ’s brief attempts [to] raise rates in 1996 could be blamed for the Asian Financial Crisis.

In Clark’s view, markets seem to have moved more with the Japan’s bank balance sheet than the Fed’s. The BOJ “invented” quantitative easing in the early 2000s, and the subprime crisis started not long after it removed that liquidity from the market in 2006, he notes.

“For really old investors, loose Japanese monetary policy also explained the bubble economy of the 1980s. BOJ Balance Sheet and S&P 500 have decent correlation in my book,” he said, offering the below chart:


Capital Flows and Asset Markets, Russell Clark.

Clark says that also helps explains why higher bond yields haven’t really hurt assets. “As JGB 10 yields have risen, the BOJ has committed to unlimited purchases to keep it below 1%,” he notes.

The two big takeaways here? “BOJ is the only central bank that matters…and that we need to get bearish the U.S. when the BOJ raises interest rates. Given the moves in bond markets and food inflation, this is a matter of time,” said Clark who says in light of his plans for a new fund, “a bear market would be extremely useful for me.” He’s watching the BOJ closely.

The markets

Pre-data, stock futures
ES00,
-0.41%

NQ00,
-0.80%

are down, while Treasury yields
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y

BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
hold steady. Oil
CL.1,
+0.79%

and gold
GC00,
+0.46%

are both higher. The Nikkei 225 index
JP:NIK
tapped 38,000 for the first time since 1990.

Key asset performance

Last

5d

1m

YTD

1y

S&P 500

5,021.84

1.60%

4.98%

5.28%

21.38%

Nasdaq Composite

15,942.55

2.21%

6.48%

6.20%

34.06%

10 year Treasury

4.181

7.83

11.45

30.03

42.81

Gold

2,038.10

-0.17%

-0.75%

-1.63%

9.33%

Oil

77.14

5.96%

6.02%

8.15%

-2.55%

Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points

The buzz

Due at 8:30 a.m., January headline consumer prices are expected to dip to 2.9% for January, down from 3.4% in December and the lowest since March 2021. Monthly inflation is seen at 0.3%.

Biogen
BIIB,
+1.56%

stock is down on disappointing results and a slow launch for its Alzheimer’s treatment. A miss is also hitting Krispy Kreme
DNUT,
+1.99%
,
Coca-Cola
KO,
+0.24%

is up on a revenue rise, with Hasbro
HAS,
+1.38%
,
Molson Coors
TAP,
+3.12%

and Marriott
MAR,
+0.74%

still to come, followed by Airbnb
ABNB,
+4.20%
,
Akamai
AKAM,
-0.13%

and MGM Resorts
MGM,
+0.60%

after the close. Hasbro stock is plunging on an earnings miss.

JetBlue
JBLU,
+2.19%

is surging after billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn disclosed a near 10% stake and said his firm is discussing possible board representation.

Tripadvisor stock
TRIP,
+3.04%

is up 10% after the travel-services platform said it was considering a possible sale.

In a first, Russia put Estonia’s prime minister on a “wanted” list. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate approved aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

Best of the web

Why chocolate lovers will pay more this Valentine’s Day than they have in years

A startup wants to harvest lithium from America’s biggest saltwater lake.

Online gambling transactions hit nearly 15,000 per second during the Super Bowl.

The chart

Deutsche Bank has taken a deep dive into the might of the Magnificent Seven, and why they will continue to matter for investors. One reason? Nearly 40% of the world still doesn’t have internet access as the bank’s chart shows:

Top tickers

These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.

Ticker

Security name

TSLA,
-2.81%
Tesla

NVDA,
+0.16%
Nvidia

ARM,
+29.30%
Arm Holdings

PLTR,
+2.75%
Palantir Technologies

NIO,
+2.53%
Nio

AMC,
+4.11%
AMC Entertainment

AAPL,
-0.90%
Apple

AMZN,
-1.21%
Amazon.com

MARA,
+14.19%
Marathon Digital

TSM,
-1.99%
NIO

Random reads

Everyone wants this freak “It bag.”

Dumped over a text? Get your free dumplings.

Messi the dog steals Oscars’ limelight.

Love and millions of flowers stop in Miami.

Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

Check out On Watch by MarketWatch, a weekly podcast about the financial news we’re all watching – and how that’s affecting the economy and your wallet.

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My Tinder match asked if I ‘rent or own’ my apartment. Is it gauche to ask financial questions before a first date?

I met a guy on Tinder
MTCH,
+0.75%

and had an introductory telephone conversation, which I always think is a good idea before making the effort to meet in person. During our 15-minute telephone conversation, he told me about his divorce, his job and his hobbies. He described himself as easygoing and outdoorsy, and someone who likes to socialize and play sports. 

He talked a lot about his children, for five minutes or longer. He said he owned a small house. He asked what I did for a living, when my last relationship was, what neighborhood I lived in and — this stuck in my craw — whether I rented or owned my apartment and if it was a studio, one- or two-bedroom apartment. I felt uncomfortable, but I answered.

I live in New York City, and I happen to own my apartment, but I felt like he was sizing me up and trying to get a picture of my finances before he decided to meet me. He also asked how long I’ve been in my apartment, probably to assess how much equity I had in it. I replied, “a while,” as I already felt like he was getting too into my finances for a first conversation.

Once he was satisfied with my answers to these questions, he suggested we meet. I am busy this weekend, so he suggested driving into the city during the week. Based on his job and profession, I can reasonably estimate that I earn about twice his salary, though this does not mean anything to me, and I could care less. But given his money-related questions, I find that ironic.

I asked some friends. Some did a spit take, while others felt such questions were fair game. What do you think?

Irritated Even Before Our First Date

Related: I want my father to quitclaim his home so I can refinance it — and take out a $200,000 annuity for my sister and me. Is this wise?

“Based on his questions, it’s important to him that you have the same level of financial security that he does. If it were not an issue for him, he would not have asked.”


MarketWatch illustration

Dear Irritated,

He is not your real-estate agent or financial adviser, so I agree that it’s strange for a virtual stranger to quiz you on your living arrangements.

Based on his questions, it’s important to him that you have the same level of financial security that he does. If it were not an issue for him, he would not have asked. It’s as simple as that. Similarly, if he were wealthy beyond his wildest dreams, he may care less than someone who has climbed partly up the property ladder. But do I think it’s a bit much to ask in a first conversation? Yes.

Don’t give the Greek chorus too much importance. Whether or not other people are comfortable with such questions in a first call is immaterial; if you are not comfortable, you have your answer. You, after all, are the person who will have to date him, and expect him to show a semblance of emotional intelligence and sensitivity. It’s imperative to be able to read the room.

Let there be no mistake: If he is asking a question about your real-estate holdings or finances, he’s interested in them as a way of assessing (or judging) your suitability as a partner. Maybe he romanticizes his relationship prospects based on first impressions, and wonders whether he could combine assets and live in splendor. But words and questions have meaning.

Social acceptability vs. social mobility 

In America, it may be seen as more acceptable than in some European countries to ask what you do for a living, and even whether you rent or own in a big city like New York. The U.S. is a country of immigrants, and has more immigrants than any other population in the world, according to the Pew Research Center

The idea is to strive, work hard, and do better than the previous generation, although a majority of Americans reportedly doubt the attainability of generation-to-generation upward mobility, and millions of people are reassessing their relationship to work-life balance in the wake of the pandemic.

Wealth and looks play a role in whether someone swipes left or right, but the former appears to become more important when a connection is made with a partner who is deemed attractive. “When long-term interest is considered, the physical attractiveness of the model appeared to serve as an initial hurdle that had to be cleared prior to any other factors being considered by the participants,” according to this 2020 study.

People do swipe right based on economic factors. It would be foolhardy or idealistic to suggest that they don’t. If, however, a man poses in sunglasses with two thumbs up next to a Lamborghini, listing bitcoin
BTCUSD,
+1.57%

trading as one of his pastimes, chances are he doesn’t own that Lamborghini and, in my estimation, may have “Tinder Swindler”-level intentions.

And if a potential partner is both attractive and wealthy? That seems to be an appealing combination. Female online daters are 10 times more likely to click on profiles with men who have higher incomes, at least according to this study published in the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, while male online daters are equally likely to click on women’s profiles, regardless of income. 

I don’t put too much stock in studies that say men are looking for attractive partners, while women are more interested in men who look wealthy. You could probably do an analysis of any online dating site and gather a sample that would give you conclusions that say pretty much anything you want them to say. It all depends on the individual: Someone who knows the exact size of their backyard and strives to keep up with the Joneses is more likely to ask whether you rent or own.

In other words, this fellow who grilled you over your own socioeconomic circumstances may still be a perfect match — for someone else.

You can email The Moneyist with any financial and ethical questions at [email protected], and follow Quentin Fottrell on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.

Check out the Moneyist private Facebook group, where we look for answers to life’s thorniest money issues. Post your questions, tell me what you want to know more about, or weigh in on the latest Moneyist columns.

The Moneyist regrets he cannot reply to questions individually.

Previous columns by Quentin Fottrell:

I want my son to inherit my $1.2 million house. Should I leave it to my second husband in my will? He promised to pass it on.

My adult sons live rent-free in my house, while I pay for 50% of utilities in my second husband’s condo

My brother lives in our parents’ home, which we’ll inherit 50/50. I want to keep it in the family for my children. How do I protect my interests?



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I don’t want to leave my financially irresponsible daughter my house. Is that unreasonable?

I am at my wit’s end and hope someone can recommend ways to help my daughter’s unwillingness to manage her money. When I am gone her chances are slim to none. I am a senior citizen and I’ve had cancer four times in the last three years, so I don’t know how much longer I have. 

I already told her I’d leave her a few thousand dollars from my retirement funds, but I know she’ll blow through whatever I give her. I don’t want to leave her my house in my will. Am I being unreasonable? The loan balance is only $28,000 and mortgage payments are very low. One reason: She’ll be even less motivated to manage her finances wisely if she knows she will get it.  

I’ve talked to my therapist and he has no solutions. All my daughter’s friends are similarly ill-equipped, and there is no adult that she would heed. My therapist said: “Why should I care?” But I do. Plus, she won’t be able to pay the ongoing taxes, insurance and maintenance because of her free-wheeling spending.  

I told her not to spend her modest retirement balance from a previous job. She did and her reason was that she said it was small. I let her use my car, and pay maintenance and insurance.  I pay for her phone. She pays no rent and nor does she do many chores. Oftentimes, she is short of money, and I have to give her a loan. She keeps getting credit cards, pays them off, then repeats the cycle.

When I try to talk to her calmly, she argues. I tried to get her to set up a budget. She won’t do it.  Earlier she agreed to pay the entire phone bill as her contribution. She simply auto-paid using her credit card. The card went into arrears so I had to make good on that, and resume responsibility.

I try to set up small goals for her, but she’s not receptive. Yet she buys plenty of snacks, cosmetics and goes on vacations. I’ve offered to have us meet an adviser of her choice to tackle these issues, but again she’s not interested. I’ve even suggested I’m going to take a home-equity loan to spend on myself and she’d have to pay it back but again, no response.

I love her very much, but don’t know what to do. My wife sabotaged my efforts in her misguided kindness when our daughter was younger. She no longer does that, but it’s too late.

In short, she’s not willing to manage her money properly. She is in school now, but worked several years full time, and is now working part time. I promised her I’d put money toward her degree, but I’m going to pay it directly to the school.

I have calmly told her of the dire consequences of her actions, but it doesn’t get through to her.

The Father 

“You may not realize it, but your daughter, your wife and your good self are all playing a game.”


MarketWatch illustration

Dear Father,

Think twice before disinheriting your daughter. If she is your only child, don’t allow your frustrations to posthumously punish her.

First things first: Take care of yourself. You have had recurring battles with cancer, and that may have taken a toll on your health. Your fears and concerns about your own mortality may be contributing to this laser focus on your daughter’s wellbeing. It could be that you believe you have a shorter period of time to ensure your daughter balances her books, and gets back on the right track, but the truth is that she is operating on her own timetable.

That said, the situation you describe sounds extremely dysfunctional. You are both the enabler and the avenger — paying her phone bill and rent, and threatening to cut her out of your will. What’s more, you and your wife — intentionally or not — are playing good cop/bad cop. This is a “Kramer vs. Kramer” situation where your daughter is able to play her parents off against each other. One rewards, the other chastises. 

It seems like your daughter’s cycle of taking out credit cards is mirrored by the cycle of cat-and-mouse you play with her, even if you do it without realizing it. You are all caught inside a long-running saga that is, perhaps, inherited from your own parents. Your daughter will never be who you want her to be. She can only be who she is, make mistakes, learn from them (or not) and hopefully grow and mature over time. 

You may not realize it, but your daughter, your wife and your good self are all playing a game. Your daughter rebels, you threaten to disinherit her, and your wife plays peacemaker. You are tough with your daughter, your wife shows her kindness, and your daughter plays you both off against each other. Not all games are fun, but they do form a pattern that is so embedded in the family dynamic that it’s hard to see it from the inside.

The ‘games’ people play

Eric Berne wrote a landmark book in 1964 entitled “Games People Play.” He defined these games as follows: “A game is an ongoing series of complementary ulterior transactions progressing to a well-defined, predictable outcome.” It could be “If It Weren’t For You” (perhaps a common one between unhappy spouses) or “Yes, but” (where one person cajoles another to take action, but the other person always has an excuse for inaction). 

Each game has a gimmick and a payoff. I’m not sure what game you’re playing, but it’s repetitive and everybody is getting some kind of reward, even if it is an unhappy one. That is something you will have to figure out. You get to be the leader who knows how the world works, your wife gets to be Switzerland (while surreptitiously fanning the flames) while your daughter gets to defy you and assert her independence, knowing it will provoke you to repeat the cycle.

My point is: You all need family therapy! Not just your daughter. Or you. Or your wife. You need to process this together. Whether or not you leave your daughter your house is, at this point, irrelevant. The threat that you will withhold a large part of your inheritance is the key part. Why would you do that? Would it really solve anything to make your daughter even more financially insecure? Is punishing her more practical and effective than rewarding her?

Elephant in the room

The other elephant in the room is what happens if you predecease your wife. You may wish for your daughter to be disinherited except for a few thousand dollars, but this game of good cop/bad cop and rebellious daughter may continue after you’re gone with your daughter convincing your wife to not act in accordance with your wishes. That may be the final denouement to this “game,” or perhaps a relative or lawyer would take your place.

Your daughter is, I suspect, being infantilized by the constant criticisms and interference in her finances. You don’t trust her enough to make her own decisions, so you interfere and get frustrated by all her bad habits and, as you see them, mistakes. But it also helps prevent her from standing on her own two feet and facing the music when things go wrong. Why? She knows you will step in to show (a) you care and (b) you told her so.

There are financial therapists who can help you analyze your emotional relationship to money and why you make the decisions we do. But it may be that you all have to make decisions that go against your instincts. Stop trying to change your daughter, and stop bailing her out. She may do her utmost to provoke you to lose your cool with her. No more loans. Let her go on vacation. Just don’t be around to pick up the bill.

You could set up a trust with stipulations: when your daughter receives certain amounts of money and how she is allowed to spend it. There is a balance between being too controlling and prescriptive enough to encourage her to make good choices. But ultimately that is out of your hands. As I said at the beginning of my response, I worry that your responses to her are exacerbated by your fears over your own health.

It would be a shame to waste these years sparring with your child when you could put all that aside, and enjoy each other for you are, instead.

More from Quentin Fottrell:

Is it OK for my new boyfriend to ask me to split the bill? ‘I don’t want him to get used to me paying for my own meals.’

My stepdaughter is executor to her late father’s will, and believes she’s now on the deed to my home. Is that possible?

I inherited $246,000 from my late mother and used $142,000 to pay off our mortgage. If we divorce, can I claim this money?

You can email The Moneyist with any financial and ethical questions at [email protected], and follow Quentin Fottrell on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. The Moneyist regrets he cannot reply to questions individually.

Check out the Moneyist private Facebook group, where we look for answers to life’s thorniest money issues. Readers write to me with all sorts of dilemmas. Post your questions, or weigh in on the latest Moneyist columns.

By emailing your questions to the Moneyist or posting your dilemmas on the Moneyist Facebook group, you agree to have them published anonymously on MarketWatch.



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#dont #leave #financially #irresponsible #daughter #house #unreasonable

3 Key Relationships to Help Assess Market Direction

If you are finding yourself fluctuating between bullishness and bearishness, then congratulations! Hopefully, that also means you are waiting for certain signals to help you commit to one way or another.

Here are the signals we are waiting for before overly committing to a bias:

  1. As we wrote over the weekend, how the junk bonds (high yield high debt bonds) do independently, and how they perform against the long bonds (TLT).
  2. How the retail and transportation sectors do (along with small caps) as they represent the “inside” of the US economy.
  3. How DBA (ags) and DBC (commodity index) do relative to the strong dollar and higher yields.

The first chart shows you a sell signal mean reversion as far as the ratio between long bonds and junk bonds signaled. However, junk still outperforms long bonds — at this point, that says risk on, but a cautious risk on, with junk gapping lower and taking out summer lows (but holding March lows at 72.61).

Retail (XRT) had a solid reversal bottom last week. Now, it must clear last Friday’s highs and hold June lows… plus, XRT outperforms SPY right now.

Transportation (IYT) is now underperforming SPY. Although consolidating after breaking under the 200-DMA (green), it looks vulnerable. Could that change? A move over 235 would be a good start.

Looking at DBA, that whole commodities sector is outperforming the SPY. Makes you wonder what would happen if the dollar and/or yields soften.

Trading slightly below the July 6-month calendar range high, we anticipate DBA can continue higher, especially if price retakes the 50-DMA (blue line). DBC fell right onto support at its 50-DMA. Momentum also fell into support. Furthermore, DBA also outperforms SPY. This certainly makes the case for higher commodities and inflation as a trend again, especially if long bonds and the dollar soften.


This is for educational purposes only. Trading comes with risk.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at [email protected].

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.


Watch Mish and Nicole Petallides discuss how pros and cons working in tandem, plus why commodities are still a thing, in this video from Schwab.

Mish talks TSLA in this video from Business First AM.

See Mish argue investors could jump into mega-tech over value and explain why she is keeping an eye on WTI prices on BNN Bloomberg’s Opening Bell.

Even as markets crumble, there are yet market opportunities to be found, as Mish discusses on Business First AM here.

Mish explains how she’s preparing for the next move in Equities and Commodities in this video with Benzinga’s team.

Mish talks about the head-and-shoulders top pattern for the S&P 500 in The Final Bar.

Mish covers sectors from the Economic Family, oil, and risk in this Yahoo! Finance video.

Mish shares why the most important ETFs to watch are Retailers (XRT) and Small Caps (IWM) in this appearance on the Thursday, September 20 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar with David Keller, and also explains MarketGauge’s latest plugin on the StockCharts ACP platform. Mish’s interview begins at 19:53.

Mish covers 7 stocks that are ripe for the picking on the Wednesday, September 20 edition of StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five, and she gives you actionable levels to watch.

Take a look at this analysis of StockCharts.com’s Charting Forward from Jayanthi Gopalkrishnan, which breaks down Mish’s conversation with three other charting experts about the state of the market in Q3 and beyond.

Mish was interviewed by Kitco News for the article “Oil Prices Hit Nearly One-Year High as it Marches Towards $100”, available to read here.

Mish covers short term trading in DAX, OIL, NASDAQ, GOLD, and GAS in this second part of her appearance on CMC Markets.

Mish talks Coinbase in this video from Business First AM!

Mish looks at some sectors from the economic family, oil, and risk in this appearance on Yahoo Finance!

Mish covers oil, gold, gas and the dollar in this CMC Markets video.

In this appearance on Business First AM, Mish explains why she’s recommending TEVA, an Israeli pharmaceutical company outperforming the market-action plan.

As the stock market tries to shake off a slow summer, Mish joins Investing with IBD to explain how she avoids analysis paralysis using the six market phases and the economic modern family. This edition of the podcast takes a look at the warnings, the pockets of strength, and how to see the bigger picture.

Mish was the special guest in this edition of Traders Edge, hosted by Jim Iuorio and Bobby Iaccino!

In this Q3 edition of StockCharts TV’s Charting Forward 2023, Mish joins a panel run by David Keller and featuring Julius de Kempenaer (RRG Research & StockCharts.com) and Tom Bowley (EarningsBeats). In this unstructured conversation, the group shares notes and charts to highlight what they see as important considerations in today’s market environment.


Coming Up:

October 4: Jim Puplava, Financial Sense

October 5: Yahoo! Finance & Making Money with Charles Payne, Fox Business

October 12: Dale Pinkert, F.A.C.E.

October 26: Schwab and Yahoo! Finance at the NYSE

October 27: Live in-studio with Charles Payne, Fox Business

October 29-31: The Money Show

Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets


  • S&P 500 (SPY): There are multiple timeframe support levels around 420-415.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): 170 huge.
  • Dow (DIA): 334 pivotal.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 330 possible if can’t get back above 365.
  • Regional Banks (KRE): 39.80 the July calendar range low.
  • Semiconductors (SMH): 133 the 200-DMA with 147 pivotal resistance.
  • Transportation (IYT): 237 resistance, 225 support.
  • Biotechnology (IBB): 120-125 range.
  • Retail (XRT): 57 key support; if can climb over 63, get bullish.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

Mish Schneider

About the author:
Mish Schneider serves as Director of Trading Education at MarketGauge.com. For nearly 20 years, MarketGauge.com has provided financial information and education to thousands of individuals, as well as to large financial institutions and publications such as Barron’s, Fidelity, ILX Systems, Thomson Reuters and Bank of America. In 2017, MarketWatch, owned by Dow Jones, named Mish one of the top 50 financial people to follow on Twitter. In 2018, Mish was the winner of the Top Stock Pick of the year for RealVision.

Learn More

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Q4 Stock Market Outlook: 3 Analysts, 3 Insights

KEY

TAKEAWAYS

  • Although September is considered a seasonally weak period for the stock market the fourth quarter is typically a strong period
  • There’s a high probability of the S&P 500 Index reaching a new high in Q4
  • Growth stocks, Industrials, Financials, and Commodities could all see positive movement in Q4

Traders and investors don’t generally look forward to September. Besides being the end of summer vacations and back-to-school season, the stock market usually hits its weakest point at this time of the year. But that doesn’t necessarily mean you should stay away from the stock market in September.

If you patiently wait for the pullback to unravel, it could present investment opportunities for the last quarter of the year. And given that 2023 is a pre-election year, it’s usually a strong one for equities. But which market segment should you invest in, and which ones should you stay away from? 

In a recent StockCharts TV episode of Charting Forward, recorded on September 12, 2023, Chief Market Strategist of StockCharts.com, David Keller, CMT, spoke with the following three technical analyst veterans:

  • Mish Schneider, Director of Trading Education at Market Gauge
  • Tom Bowley, Chief Market Strategist of EarningsBeats.com
  • Julius de Kempenaer, Creator of Relative Rotation GraphsⓇ and Senior Analyst at StockCharts.com 

In it, the group discussed how the broader market went through a pullback in August, but has since recovered. Given September is considered a weak month, does that mean the stock market could see another pullback before moving back up? Which areas of the market are likely to perform well, and which ones are likely to be the laggards in Q4? Let’s find out.

“I’m not as bearish as I should be. The risk factors we look at say “risk-on” is the way to go.” —Mish Schneider

So, assuming nothing out of the ordinary happens, Mish’s outlook is positive. The stock market has remained strong despite rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, and rising oil prices. When the stock market is trending higher, there’s no reason to fight that trend.

“We are in the summer doldrums and could see one more drop before going higher. But I’m also bullish.” —Tom Bowley

Earlier in the year—mid-July—sentiment indicators showed bearish signs, and some negative divergences were emerging in the broader indexes. But that has reversed.

“If you look at a daily chart of the S&P 500 ($SPX), there is a series of higher highs and higher lows since the August pullback. I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P 500 exceeds 4600 in Q4.” —Julius de Kempenaer

Well, you can’t argue there. The way things are now (short of systematic risk hitting the market), the stock market seems to be hanging in there. It’s almost as if it’s waiting for a catalyst to push it higher. 

The pullback of the Magnificent Seven stocks was healthy and perhaps a much-needed one. Apple (ticker symbol: AAPL) hit a rough patch when China restricted the use of the iPhone. But if you look at a daily chart of AAPL (see below), it doesn’t paint a doom-and-gloom picture.

CHART 1: DAILY CHART OF APPLE, INC. Although Apple’s stock price faced some pressure, it still didn’t take out its August low.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The stock hasn’t taken out its August 18 low of $172 and could potentially reverse. If a hard-hit stock isn’t looking bearish, is there any reason for investors to question the strength of the equity market?

What Could Go Wrong

For Mish, it would be the retail space. Consumer behavior is strongly correlated with the health of the US economy. And if consumers cut back on their spending, which is possible when inflationary pressures are ubiquitous and interest rates are high, it could add some stress to the broader market.

So far, there are no signs of a drop in retail sales. August retail sales were up 0.6% month over month—higher than the 0.1% increase expected by economists. A large part of that rise can be attributed to higher gasoline prices. If you strip away auto and fuel from the data, retail sales rose by a mere 0.2%. This could indicate that consumers may face pressure, so it’s best to keep an eye on the retail sector by closely watching the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT).

CHART 2: THE RETAIL SECTOR HELPS GAUGE CONSUMER SENTIMENT. The August high didn’t come close to its February high. Does that mean retail spending could decline in the near future?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

One interesting point Mish made was that the uptrend in XRT from June to July (2023) didn’t come close to the February 2023 high. And even though XRT saw a jump due to the positive retail sales number, there’s no sign of an uptrend—higher highs and higher lows.

Rising oil prices could put pressure on the equity market. While energy stocks are rising, Julius points out that other sectors, such as Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Communication Services, are getting ready to gain strength. It’s likely the Magnificent Seven will take the lead again, which is encouraging, given that the Energy sector is looking overbought.

Sector Relationships Are Important

Relationships between sectors often hold the key to future market action. Tom Bowley pays close attention to the relationships for warning signs. What you hear in the media may not appear on the charts. So, what are the charts indicating?

“In addition to Consumer Discretionary and Technology, Industrials and Financials tend to perform well during Q4,” said Tom. So keep an eye on the chart of the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) and the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF). The daily chart of XLF below shows the ETF bouncing off its 50-day simple moving average.

CHART 3: DAILY CHART OF THE FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR (XLF). The Financial sector could perform well in Q4. The ETF appears to be bouncing off its 50-day simple moving average.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Another sector to watch is Materials. Besides production cuts, Mish feels that the rise in oil prices has to do with shortages. Because of this, we could see a boom in commodities. “Commodities have started to bottom and are picking up steam,” added Julius.

Many say, “This time, it’s different.” And there’s some truth to that. When considering buying a stock, there are many factors to analyze. For example, we’re in a high-interest rate environment, which generally hurts growth stocks. But we haven’t seen that.

“Interest rates are only one part of the equation,” mentioned Tom. So, if growth is strong, you can expect growth stocks to continue rising.

The Bottom Line

So all three analysts had a similar opinion of the overall direction of the broader market. However, each had unique perspectives in their analysis. For additional insights on cryptocurrencies, sectors likely to outperform or underperform, and which stocks or charts to watch in Q4, check out the video (link at the bottom of this article). 

We’re approaching the second half of September, which is typically the worst part of the month. But the broader indexes are showing bullish signs. Even hotter-than-expected inflation numbers didn’t spark a selloff. There’s still a Fed meeting later this month, but the chances of Fed Chairman Powell making any comments that may cause the market to sway significantly in either direction are slim. Will September’s performance be different this year?


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Knowledge gaps for perishable liquid food packs threaten Green Deal

Professor Fredrik Nilsson, Packaging Logistics, Faculty of Engineering, Lund University

Policymakers are currently deliberating on packaging reuse targets in the proposed EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR). But do they have the necessary evidence to make those decisions for all packaged products? A systematic review of 159 relevant scientific studies on packaging alternatives for perishable liquid foods[1] — milk, juices, nectars and plant-based drinks — suggests there is a clear gap in holistic impact assessment knowledge.

Packaging of perishable liquid foods exists in various forms such as aseptic paper-based beverage cartons or non-aseptic solutions such as plastic or glass bottles. Each packaging solution has an impact on the quality, safety and shelf life of the food it contains. In assessing packaging solutions, efforts should be made to understand the wider context of reuse targets for perishable liquid foods, with consideration for packaging types, food security, food safety, food waste and environmental impacts.

In both research and policy contexts, packaging is still often considered separately from its contents in impact assessments.

However, in both research and policy contexts, packaging is still often considered separately from its contents in impact assessments, despite an existing body of knowledge and evidence showing that food and its packaging should be treated as an integrated unit.

Consequently, policymakers served only with evidence of packaging impacts could be misled and make inaccurate decisions when discussing the measures included in the proposed EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR). This risks undermining the EU’s Green Deal ambitions.

The importance of the analysis

One of the primary objectives of the proposed PPWR is to ensure that “all packaging in the EU is reusable or recyclable in an economically viable way by 2030”, in line with the EU Green Deal and the EU Circular Economy Action Plan. Setting reusable packaging targets was always likely to spark a robust debate with the food industry. The European food system uses a large amount of packaging and the use of single-use packaging in particular has grown significantly in the past decades. For perishable liquid foods, producers today prefer recyclable single-use packaging — such as aseptic beverage cartons — for the sale of 75 percent of milk, 59 percent of juices and a major share of plant-based drinks in the EU[2].

We undertook a comprehensive and systematic analysis of all identifiable studies on single-use versus reusable packaging for perishable liquid foods.

With a specific focus on the 154 billion liters of perishable liquid foods produced in the EU each year[3], a more fundamental question occurred to the Packaging Logistics division in the Faculty of Engineering at Lund University. We wondered if a sufficient body of evidence existed to help policymakers make packaging reuse decisions, so we undertook a comprehensive and systematic analysis of all identifiable studies on single-use versus reusable packaging for perishable liquid foods.

The scale of the knowledge gap that we uncovered was eye-opening.

Findings from the study

Based on an analysis of 159 identified scientific papers, we came to three main conclusions.

First, the research and knowledge of food waste for single-use packaging compared to reusable packaging alternatives for perishable liquid foods was clearly insufficient. No studies were found that evaluated reusable packaging for such foods in relation to food waste, consequently no studies were found comparing single-use packaging with reusable packaging in this regard. A few studies were found that evaluated different single-use packaging alternatives in terms of the packaging and the liquid food being contained, finding that multilayer carton packages had the lowest environmental impact. Most environmentally-focused studies on food packaging did not consider the food saved or wasted.

The research and knowledge of food waste for single-use packaging compared to reusable packaging alternatives for perishable liquid foods was clearly insufficient.

Second, there were few studies comparing reusable and single-use packaging for perishable liquid foods in terms of food safety and quality. Instead, the majority of sampled papers simply provided insights and evidence for critical factors to be considered in food production and supply chain handling to keep liquid foods safe and of sufficient quality. This analysis surfaced several challenges related to reusable packaging, some related to food safety and others to quality limitations. For example, some studies pointed out quality-related challenges from plastic refillable bottles, such as the absorption of chemicals from previous use.

Finally, while there were many papers addressing shelf life as a critical aspect for perishable liquid foods — and many that empirically provided evidence of lower food waste in retail and at the consumer stage when shelf life is prolonged — there were still sizable knowledge gaps. No studies were found that compared the shelf life of single-use versus reusable packaging for perishable liquid foods. None were found that evaluated the shelf life of reusable packaging for such foods in relation to food waste, and none were found that clarified what optimal shelf life is for different products.

In our view, the key knowledge gaps at this time are: evidence of food waste impacts for reusable alternatives, so that a comparison with recyclable single-use packaging is possible; comparative studies on food safety and quality impacts through using single-use and reusable alternatives; shelf life comparisons; impact assessments that also take into account climate and land-use impacts; and, most importantly, food packaging studies that take into account the product that the packaging contains and protects. 

Key knowledge gaps need to be addressed

Policymakers should be insisting on accessing a more holistic knowledge base built on assessment of impact, before they finalize reusable packaging targets in the PPWR. 

The evidence we have today suggests that greater food safety, food security and food quality could be achieved by increasing the use of recyclable single-use packaging.

A more holistic perspective is crucial to help policymakers avoid measures that might miss higher environmental gains, compromise consumers’ health and wellbeing, and reconfigure the packaging industry. Further knowledge might indicate that reusable packaging for perishable liquid foods is feasible under specific circumstances. However, the evidence we have today suggests that greater food safety, food security and food quality could be achieved by increasing the use of recyclable single-use packaging. Support for that choice is already demonstrated today through the packaging chosen by the majority of European milk, juice and plant-based drink producers.


[1] Perishable foods are defined in EU legislation under Regulation (EU) No 1169/2011 as foods which, from a microbiological point of view, are highly perishable and are therefore likely after a short period to constitute an immediate danger to human health.

[2] AIJN, Liquid Fruit Market Report, 2018, p.7 https://aijn.eu/files/attachments/.598/2018_Liquid_Fruit_Market_Report.pdf

[3] Key figures on the European food chain, Eurostat, 2021



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Lukas Gage’s viral video audition haunts the ‘hot labor summer’ actors’ strike sweeping Hollywood

In November 2020, the actor Lukas Gage was auditioning for a role via video link when he heard the producer make some disparaging remarks about the size of his apartment. 

“These poor people who live in these tiny apartments,” the producer said. “I’m looking at his background and he’s got his TV and …”

Gage, who at that time had had a four-episode arc on HBO’s “Euphoria” among other small roles, interrupted the producer — British director Tristram Shapeero, who later apologized for his remarks — to let him know that he was not muted and that Gage could, in fact, hear him. 

“Yeah, I know it’s a sh—y apartment,” Gage said. “That’s why — give me this job so I can get a better one.”

Shapeero replied, “Oh my god, I am so, so sorry … I am absolutely mortified.”

Putting together an audition tape can often take up an entire day and involve setting up a studio space for sound and lighting.

“Listen, I’m living in a four-by-four box, just give me the job and we’ll be fine,” Gage responded. 

Gage kept his sense of humor, but he also decided to post the video on his Twitter account to show how actors are sometimes treated from the moment they audition for a role — and perhaps to remind people to make sure you’re on mute if you’re trash-talking someone on a Zoom
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+1.76%

call.

It’s three years later, and members of the Writers Guild and Screen Actors Guild are on strike, looking for more pay, better working conditions and stricter rules around things like the use of actors’ images in the age of artificial intelligence and the lack of residuals from streaming networks. 

The perils of the online audition

Meanwhile, Gage’s 2020 online audition is resonating again. 

For a working actor — who, like the majority of SAG-AFTRA members who may not be an A-list star — simply getting in front of a producer as Gage did can be a long and difficult process. And since the start of the pandemic, the nature of auditions has changed dramatically. This has come to symbolize the uphill struggle actors face from the moment they hear about a role. 

In May, Ezra Knight, New York local president of SAG-AFTRA, asked members to authorize strike action, saying contracts needed to be renegotiated to reflect dramatic changes in the industry. Knight cited the need to address artificial intelligence, pay, benefits, reduced residuals in streaming and “unregulated and burdensome self-taped auditions.”

In the days of live auditions, actors would read for a role with a casting director. But several actors told MarketWatch that it’s become harder to make a living in recent years, and that it all starts with the audition tape, which has now become standard in the industry. 

By the time Gage got in front of producers, for instance, he had likely either already delivered a tape and was put on a shortlist to read in front of a producer, or the casting director was already familiar with his work and wanted him to read for the part. 

But an audition tape can often take up an entire day to put together, actors say. When the opportunity to audition arrives, actors typically have to drop everything they’re doing — whether they’re working a side hustle or taking time off or even enjoying a vacation.

Cadden Jones: “All the financial responsibilities have fallen on us. The onus is on us to create our auditions.”


Cadden Jones

They need to arrange good lighting and a clean backdrop — Gage’s TV set became a distraction for the producer during his audition — set up the camera, and scramble to find a “reader” — someone to read the other roles in the scene, preferably another actor. 

Then the actor has to edit the audition to highlight their strongest take and upload it. There are currently no regulations on the amount of pages a casting director can send to a candidate, and actors say there’s often not enough time to properly prepare.

“Unfortunately, it’s been going in this direction for some time now,” said Cadden Jones, an actor based in New York who has credits on shows including Showtime’s
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“Billions” and Amazon Prime’s
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+0.03%

“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.” 

“This was the first year I did not qualify for health insurance in decades,” she told MarketWatch. “I just started teaching.”

To put that into perspective: Members of SAG-AFTRA must earn $26,470 in a 12-month base period to qualify for health insurance. The median annual wage in the U.S. hovers at around $57,000, based on the weekly median as calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Jones and her partner, Michael Schantz, an actor who works mostly in theater, are starting a communications consulting company to increase their income.

“Most if not all of my actor friends have had to supplement their income since the pandemic,” she said. “We’re in trouble as a community of actors who used to make a good living doing what we do. It’s not like any of us lost our talent overnight. I, for one, am very glad that we’re striking.”

But Jones said that, with the auditioning process taking place mostly online since the onset of the pandemic, casting agents — who work for producers — are able to see more people for a given role, making the competition for roles even more intense.

‘This was the first year I did not qualify for health insurance in decades.’


— Cadden Jones, an actor based in New York

“We don’t go into casting offices anymore,” Jones said. “All the financial responsibilities have fallen on us. The onus is on us to create our auditions. It’s harder to know what they want, and you don’t have the luxury to work with a casting director in a physical space to get adjustments, which was personally my favorite part of the process — that collaboration.”

She added: “Because the audition rate accelerated, the booking rate went down dramatically for everybody. But don’t get me wrong. Once the strike is officially over, I want all the auditions I can get.”

SAG-AFTRA has proposed rules and expectations to address some of the burden and costs actors bear when it comes to casting, including providing a minimum amount of time for actors to send in self-taped auditions; disclosing whether an offer has been made for the role or it has already been cast; and limiting the number of pages for a “first call” or first round of auditions.

Before the negotiations broke down with the actors’ union, the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, which represents over 350 television and production companies, said it offered SAG-AFTRA $1 billion in wage increases, pension and health contributions and residual increases as part of a range of proposals related to pay and working conditions.

Those proposals included limitations on requests for audition tapes, including page, time and technology requirements, as well as options for virtual or in-person auditions, AMPTP said. The producers’ group characterized their offer as “the most lucrative deal we have ever negotiated.”

Michael Schantz: “How does the broader culture value storytelling and the people who make stories?”


Michael Schantz

Jones said she doesn’t blame the casting directors. It’s up to the producers, she said, to be more mindful of how the changes in the industry since the advent of streaming, the decline in wages adjusted for inflation, and poor residuals from streaming services have taken a toll on working actors.

Bruce Faulk, who has been a member of SAG-AFTRA since 1992, said that for work on a one-off character part or a recurring role on a network show, he might receive a check for hundreds or even thousands of dollars in residuals. And — crucially — he knows how many times a particular show has aired. 

Residuals are fees paid to actors each time a TV show or film is broadcast on cable or network television. They are based on the size of the role and the budget of the production, among other things. For shows that air on streaming services, however, residuals are far harder to track. 

What’s more, residuals decline over time and can often amount to just a few cents per broadcast. 

Actor Kimiko Glenn, who appeared on episodes of Netflix’s
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“Orange Is the New Black,” recently shared a video on TikTok showing $27 in residuals from her work on that show.

Faulk sympathizes. “A lot of checks from HBO
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-1.37%

for ‘The Sopranos’ or ‘Gossip Girl’ I get are for $33,” he said. “I never know how many people watched me on ‘Gossip Girl’ in the three episodes I’m in. All we know is whatever the streaming services decided to announce as their subscriber numbers.”

Like Jones, Faulk said this will be the first year he won’t qualify for SAG-AFTRA health insurance, which covers him, his wife and his son. This is despite him having worked enough over the past 10 years to qualify for a pension when he turns 67. “Mine is up to $1,000 a month now,” he said, noting that the pension will keep increasing if he keeps getting acting work.

Schantz, who had a three-episode arc on NBC’s
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“The Blacklist” in addition to his other TV, film and theater credits, finds the recent shifts in the landscape for actors somewhat difficult to reconcile with the way people turned to TV and film during the loneliest days of the pandemic.

“One of the most concerning things I can think of right now is the conversation around value. How does the broader culture value storytelling and the people who make stories?” he said. “The arts always tend to fall to the wayside in many ways, but it was striking during the pandemic that so much of our attention went to watching movies and television. There’s obviously something inside of us that feels like we’re part of the human story.”

Actors battle other technology

While big companies like Disney
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HBO, Apple
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-0.62%
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Amazon and Netflix make millions of dollars from films and TV series that are watched again and again, Schantz said that actors are unable to make a living. “No one wants to go on strike,” he said. 

Those five companies have not responded to requests for comment from MarketWatch on these issues.

Since his audition tape went viral, Gage has booked regular work, and he found even greater fame when he went on to star in Season 1 of HBO’s “White Lotus.” In 2023, he will star in nine episodes of “You,” now streaming on Netflix, and in the latest season of FX’s “Fargo.” 

Earlier this year, he told the New York Times: “I had never judged my apartment until that day.” He added, “I remember having this weird feeling in the pit of my stomach afterward, like, why am I judging where I’m at in my 20s, at the beginning of my career?”

‘There’s enough Bruce out there where you could take my likeness and my voice and put me in the scene.’


— Bruce Falk, a member of SAG-AFTRA since 1992

But advances in technology are not just hurting actors in the audition process. A debate is raging over the use of AI and whether actors should be expected to sign away the rights to their image in perpetuity, especially when they might only be getting paid for half a day’s work.

“AI is the next big thing,” Falk said. The industry is concerned about companies taking actors’ likenesses and using AI to generate crowd scenes. 

“Even an actor at my level — that guy on that show — there’s enough Bruce out there where you could take my likeness and my voice and put me in the scene: the lieutenant who gives you the overview of what happened to the dead body,” he said. “At this point, I could be technically replaced. We have to get down on paper, in very clear terms, that that can’t be done.”

The Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers also said it agrees with SAG-AFTRA and had proposed — before the actors’ strike — “that use of a performer’s likeness to generate a new performance requires consent and compensation.” The AMPTP said that would mean no digital version of a performer should be created without the performer’s written consent and a description of the intended use in the film, and that later digital replicas without that performer’s consent would be prohibited.  

“Companies that are publicly traded obviously have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders, and whatever they can use, they will use it — and they are using AI,” Schantz said. “Yes, there are some immediate concerns. Whether or not the technology is advanced enough to fully replace actors is an open question, but some people think it’s an inevitability now.

“To let companies have free rein with these technologies is obviously creating a problem,” he added. “I can’t go show up, do a day’s work, have my performance be captured, and have that content create revenue for a company unless I’m being property compensated for it.”

Schantz said he believes there’s still time to address these technological issues before they become a widespread problem that makes all auditions — however cumbersome — obsolete. 

“We haven’t crossed this bridge as a society, but God only knows how far along they are in their plans,” he said. “All I know is it has to be a choice for the actors. There has to be a contract, and we have to be protected. Otherwise, actors will no longer be able to make a living doing this work.”



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Bank of America execs blew $93.6 billion. Here’s how they did it.

In several notes to clients this month, Odeon Capital Group analyst Dick Bove has pointed out that Bank of America’s big spending on stock buybacks over the past five years has been a waste for its shareholders, with the bank’s stock price declining slightly during that period.

The idea behind repurchasing shares on the open market is that they reduce a company’s share count and therefore boost earnings per share and support higher share prices over time. This doesn’t seem to be a bad idea, especially for a company such as Apple Inc.
AAPL,
+1.01%
,
which has generated excess capital and has appeared to be firing on all cylinders for a long time. For a company that is continuing to expand its product and service offerings while maintaining high profitability, buybacks can be a blessing to shareholders.

But for banks, for which capital is the main ingredient of earnings power, a more careful approach might be in order. The data below show how buybacks haven’t helped the largest banks outperform the broad stock market over the past five years. And now, banks face the prospect of regulators raising their capital requirements by 20%, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

Before showing data for the 20 companies among the S&P 500 that have spent the most money on buybacks over the past five years, let’s take a look at how share repurchases are described in a misleading way by corporate executives — and by many analysts, for that matter. During Bank of America’s
BAC,
-0.79%

first-quarter earnings call on April 18, Chief Financial Officer Alastair Borthwick said the bank had “returned $12 billion in capital to shareholders” over the previous 12 months, according to a transcript provided by FactSet.

Borthwick was referring to buybacks and dividends combined. Neither item was a return of capital. In fact, Bove summed up the buybacks elegantly in a client note on June 9: “The money that the company uses to buy back the stock is simply given away to people who do not want to own the bank’s stock.”

It is also worth pointing out that the term “return of capital” actually means the return of investors’ own capital to them, which is commonly done by closed-end mutual funds, business-development companies and some real-estate investment trusts, for various reasons. Those distributions aren’t taxed and they lower an investor’s cost basis.

Dividends aren’t a return of capital, either, if they are sourced from a company’s earnings, as they have been for Bank of America.

One more thing for investors to think about is that large companies typically award newly issued shares to executives as part of their compensation. This dilutes the ownership stakes of nonexecutive shareholders. So some of the buybacks merely mitigate this dilution. An investor hopes to see the buybacks lower the share count, but there are some instances in which the count still increases.

How buybacks can hurt banks

Banks’ management teams and boards of directors have engaged in buybacks because they wish to boost earnings per share and returns on equity by shedding excess capital. But Bove made another industry-specific point in his June 9 note: “If the bank buys back stock it must sell assets that offer a return to do so; it lowers current earnings.” Buybacks can also hurt future earnings. Less capital can slow expansion, loan growth and profits.

According to Bove, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, who took the top slot in 2010 and saw the bank through the difficult aftermath of its acquisition of Countrywide and Merrill Lynch in 2008, “is one of the brightest, most capable executives for operating a banking enterprise.”

But he questions Moynihan’s ability to manage the bank’s balance sheet. Bove expects that Bank of America will need to issue new common shares, in part because rising interest rates have reduced the value of its bond investments.

In a June 5 note, Bove wrote: “Mr. Moynihan indicated twice [during a recent presentation] that the bank has excess cash that apparently could not be invested profitably. Possibly he is unaware that the cost of deposits at the bank in [the first quarter of] 2023 was 1.38% while the yield in the Fed Funds market can be as high as 5.25%.” In other words, the bank could earn a high spread at little risk with overnight deposits with the Federal Reserve.

That is a very simple example, but if Bank of America had grown its loan book more quickly over recent years while focusing less on buybacks, it might not face the prospect of a near-term capital raise, which would dilute current shareholders’ stakes in the company and reduce earnings per share.

Top 20 companies by dollars spent on buybacks

To look beyond banking, we sorted companies in the S&P 500
SPX,
+0.51%

by total dollars spent on buybacks over the past five years (the past 40 reported fiscal quarters) through June 9, using data suppled by FactSet. It turns out 11 have seen prices increase more quickly than the index. With reinvested dividends, 12 have outperformed the index.

Company

Ticker

Dollars spent on buybacks over the past 5 years ($Bil)

5-year price change

5-year total return with dividends reinvested

Apple Inc.

AAPL,
+1.01%
$393.6

279%

297%

Alphabet Inc. Class A

GOOGL,
+0.84%
$180.6

116%

116%

Microsoft Corporation

MSFT,
+0.87%
$121.5

221%

239%

Meta Platforms Inc.

META,
+1.58%
$103.4

42%

42%

Oracle Corp.

ORCL,
+6.11%
$102.6

140%

161%

Bank of America Corp.

BAC,
-0.79%
$93.6

-2%

10%

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPM,
-0.18%
$87.3

27%

47%

Wells Fargo & Co.

WFC,
-1.01%
$84.0

-24%

-13%

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B

BRK.B,
-0.80%
$70.3

70%

70%

Citigroup Inc.

C,
+0.09%
$51.4

-29%

-16%

Charter Communications Inc. Class A

CHTR,
+1.09%
$48.5

20%

20%

Cisco Systems Inc.

CSCO,
+1.00%
$46.5

15%

34%

Visa Inc. Class A

V,
+0.75%
$45.6

66%

72%

Procter & Gamble Co.

PG,
-1.26%
$42.1

89%

116%

Home Depot Inc.

HD,
+1.01%
$41.0

51%

71%

Lowe’s Cos. Inc.

LOW,
+1.92%
$40.8

111%

131%

Intel Corp.

INTC,
+4.67%
$39.0

-40%

-31%

Morgan Stanley

MS,
+1.04%
$36.7

67%

93%

Walmart Inc.

WMT,
+0.33%
$35.6

82%

99%

Qualcomm Inc.

QCOM,
+2.12%
$35.1

101%

130%

S&P 500

SPX,
+0.51%
55%

69%

Source: FactSet

Click on the tickers for more about each company or index.

Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

The four listed companies with negative five-year returns are three banks — Citigroup Inc.
C,
+0.09%
,
Wells Fargo & Co.
WFC,
-1.01%

and Bank of America — and Intel Inc.
INTC,
+4.67%
.

Don’t miss: As tech companies take over the market again, don’t forget these bargain dividend stocks

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Aviator Nation Owner Is Richer Than Ever As SoCal Surfer Brand Arrives In New York

Paige Mycoskie, who is now worth an estimated $380 million, unveils expansion plans for her trendy clothing brand including new stores and product lines.


T

he 43-year-old founder of uber popular clothing brand Aviator Nation, Paige Mycoskie, is curled over a desktop computer in the home office of her lakeside Austin mansion. Catching her in the throes of a typical, not at all glamorous, workday, feels almost unnatural. But it’s a busy time for Mycoskie, who just signed a lease for Aviator Nation’s first permanent storefront in New York City at 93 Mercer St. in Soho.

“I’m actually designing the store right now,” the fashion brand owner told Forbes in an April interview, shortly after snapping up the 2,700 square feet around the corner from Levi’s and Uniqlo’s U.S. flagship. Mycoskie wasn’t sure then exactly how it would look but promised Aviator Nation’s NYC hub would be “unique and special” to the area, like her brand’s 17 other locations. “I like to usually celebrate local artists and stuff. I’m a huge fan of Madonna and she’s from New York so I’ll have something related to Madonna in that space,” she riffs, adding: “I’ll have a record wall with lots of local albums and stuff like that for sure.”

Mycoskie, who started Aviator Nation back in 2007 while working at a Venice Beach surf shop, is still very much hands on with her brand, personally sketching out everything from its storefronts to its designer sweatpants. This has helped make her one of America’s richest self-made women, worth an estimated $380 million, according to Forbes’ newly released 2023 rankings. She owns 100% of the company, which took off during the COVID-19 pandemic among TikTok teens and twentysomethings. (The company did so well the Aviator Nation founder paid herself a $47.5 million dividend in 2021). This year she’s an estimated $30 million richer, thanks to an increase in revenues to $130 million in 2022, up from $110 million the previous year.

It’s not quite the growth Mycoskie was predicting. At this time last year, Mycoskie told Forbes she thought the company’s revenues would at least double by 2023. Today, the fashion designer maintains that it’s still an achievable goal for revenue to reach $200 million by the end of this year, largely citing her California-based brand’s arrival on the opposite coast. Mycoskie tested out a two-week pop-up shop in Manhattan in December, which she described as a success, and opened Aviator Nation’s first East Coast location in the Hamptons at the end of May.

“I was pretty confident that we needed to open a store in New York regardless just because I think our second biggest revenue stream online is in New York and we have no stores there,” she says, noting that it took “forever” to find the “right spot.” While there may not be as much of an appetite for swimsuits and surfboards, Mycoskie is hoping that the colder climate will push customers toward her pricey jackets, like its $875 puffers and $495 windbreakers, which she says already make up about 8% of the company’s sales.



On top of its East Coast debut, Aviator Nation will soon open a behemoth store in Nashville, its first in Tennessee. Mycoskie signed the lease to take over a building in The Gulch, a trendy and centrally located neighborhood, previously occupied by local retailer Two Old Hippies, in April 2022. The 8,500-square foot space, which is scheduled to open in August or September, will double as a live-music venue on the weekends, seizing on the city’s thriving music scene, according to Mycoskie. It will look similar to Aviator Nation’s existing concert space in its Malibu store, known as Aviator Nation Dreamland (the Nashville store will have the same name).

Though most of Aviator Nation’s sales come from its website, Mycoskie says brick and mortar continues to be an important tool for brand awareness. “In Nashville, we’ve just had a sign on the door for the past several months while we get the permits and everything and it’s really funny because just from that–I can’t imagine how this is possible–but I looked at our quarter one numbers and we are seeing a rise in Nashville,” she explains, adding that “experiences” like Aviator Nation “Dreamland” and “RIDE,” an exercise studio the company opened in Los Angeles in 2022, are successfully driving new customers to the brand.

Moving forward, however, Mycoskie says she plans to focus less on opening new stores and more on expanding into product categories, which she sees as the key way to “really escalate” revenues. She’s currently in the process of designing Aviator Nation’s own sunglasses line (a natural progression for a brand named for Mycoskie’s love of the designer shades), as well as footwear (she highlights “sandals” to sell in her stores near the beach) and bags. “Rolling out some new categories I’m passionate about will be the next stage of our growth,” explains Mycoskie, though she hesitates to nail down any specific timeline due to the complexities of producing new types of products with a U.S.-based supply chain.

In fact, all of her items are made in a factory in California. Creating everything locally can sometimes be a headache, but Mycoskie says it has been helpful overall in navigating a challenging retail environment over the past year marked by high inflation and a dropoff in discretionary spending among American shoppers. She says she bumped prices “a little bit” for about half of Aviator Nation’s already expensive clothing due to the rising cost of materials, but otherwise has been able to keep things largely “consistent” thanks to the company’s local production. The company’s gross margins are between 70% and 80%, depending on the product, according to Mycoskie.

“I’ve always kept a really tight inventory. I don’t overproduce,” says Mycoskie, noting that payroll for her employees and fabric are her “two biggest expenses.” “Right now I’m not really slowing down. So far we’re still selling out of the product.”

The all-American aspect of her brand has also helped battle a growing number of “dupes,” or copy-cat products popping up on the market, says Mycoskie. (On TikTok, videos directing shoppers toward the best “Aviator Nation sweatpants dupes” have over 8.5 million views.) “I haven’t really seen any Made In America companies knocking us off yet,” says the Aviator Nation founder. She says she has a lawyer reaching out to those ripping off her brand the most closely. “It’s like, it’s such a huge difference [in quality],” she adds. “I can’t stress out about it too much.”

Mycoskie is trying to de-stress in general. That includes taking on projects based on personal whims, like messaging the Norwegian EDM star Kygo, her “favorite DJ,” on LinkedIn to ask if she could make the merchandise for the destination festivals hosted by his brand, the Palm Tree Crew. “We became friends right away,” says Mycoskie, adding that Kygo (real name Kyrre Gørvell-Dahll) came to play pool in Aviator Nation’s Austin store, “So I think we’re just doing all their stuff now.” She also designed merchandise for the 2023 Phoenix Open golf tour and the Kentucky Derby. “It’s so random but I love horses and I just thought it would be fun,” she explains.

On her quest to enjoy life, the fashion designer also recently splashed out $20 million in cash to buy her ninth home, her second in Aspen, Colorado, where she said she is trying to spend half of the year she isn’t in Austin (she bought her $15 million Austin main residence last year to surf on the Colorado River). “I was in California for years and I’m kind of liking the small town thing now,” explains Mycoskie. “I get up early and I grind until like 4 o’clock and then I go on the lake in Austin. Or when I was in Aspen this winter, I would just go snowboarding… I really just believe that you have to have that balance. You can work your butt off but you have to have fun too.”

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