Falling oil prices is hurting energy names. But plenty of others stocks stand to gain

An oil rig in front of a sunset

Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images

U.S. crude prices continued to fall Wednesday, settling below $70 per barrel for the first time since early July and at their lowest levels since June. That’s good news for the Federal Reserve in its battle against inflation. While the impact on oil and natural gas stocks has not been as cheery, companies across many other industries stand to gain.

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The top 10 things to watch in the stock market Wednesday

The 10 things to watch Wednesday, Dec. 6

1. U.S. stocks are higher in premarket trading Wednesday, with S&P 500 futures up 0.45% after back-to-back days of losses. The move comes amid increasing signs the labor market is loosening, suggesting the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes are succeeding in cooling the economy. U.S. private payrolls rose by 103,000 last month, according to the ADP National Employment Report, well below forecasts for a 130,000 increase.

2. Home builder Toll Brothers (TOL) delivers better-than-expected quarterly results, with revenue of $3.02 billion and earnings-per-share of $4.11 on stronger margins. The company also provides upbeat commentary around 2024, with mortgage rates expected to come down.

3. Bank of America downgrades PayPal (PYPL) to neutral from buy, while lowering its price target to $66 a share, down from $77. The firm doesn’t think PayPal is “broken” but needs time to fix things, calling 2024 a transition year.

4. JPMorgan shuffles around its oil ratings, upgrading Devon Energy (DVN) to overweight from neutral, while downgrading EOG Resources (EOG) to neutral from overweight. The firm also lowers its price target slightly on Club name Coterra Energy (CTRA) to $29 a share, from $30, while reiterating an overweight rating and keeping the stock as a “top pick.”

5. Morgan Stanley downgrades Plug Power (PLUG) to underweight from equal weight, while lowering its price target to $3 a share, down from $3.50. If you want a hydrogen play with less of the risk, stick with Club holding Linde (LIN). It’s the largest supplier of liquid hydrogen in the U.S. and doing a lot for clean hydrogen, too.

6. Morgan Stanley resumes coverage on JM Smucker (SJM) with an equal-weight rating and $122-per-share price target. The firm liked Smucker’s quarterly results but cites “several concerns,” including the company’s acquisition of Hostess Brands and the risk posed by GLP-1 drugs.

7. Bank of America calls semiconductor company Qualcomm (QCOM) a “top pick” amid the end of the global smartphone downturn. The firm expects global smartphone shipments to rise by 5% in 2024.

8. Citi upgrades Signet Jewelers to buy from neutral, while raising its price target to $119 a share, up from $93. You can hear the full story from CEO Gina Drosos on Tuesday’s “Mad Money“. 

 9. Can Club holding Starbucks (SBUX) break a 12-day losing streak now that the bad news is out? CEO Laxman Narasimhan said Tuesday at a Morgan Stanley conference that the recovery in China is “perhaps half the rate of what you would expect it to be given what you saw in the fourth quarter last year.” Shares of the coffeemaker were up 0.5% in early trading, at $96 apiece.

10. Exxon Mobil (XOM) says it plans to repurchase $20 billion worth of stock annually through 2025 after its acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) closes. The oil major is buying back $17.5 billion of stock this year.

(See here for a full list of the stocks at Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.)

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Treasury Department’s hunt for Russian oil sanction violators on the seas is intensifying

A Russian-chartered oil tanker in the sea off Morocco in an area identified by maritime technology company Windward as a hub for smuggling oil.

Europa Press | Getty Images

The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control announced three vessels and shipping companies being sanctioned for violating the Russian oil sanctions on Thursday, only a few days after Treasury began a separate, larger probe of approximately 30 ship management companies covering 100 vessels suspected of violating a price cap on Russian oil.

“Shipping companies and vessels participating in the Russian oil trade while using Price Cap Coalition service providers should fully understand that we will hold them accountable for compliance,” said Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo in a statement on Thursday. “We are committed to maintaining market stability in spite of Russia’s war against Ukraine, while cutting into the profits the Kremlin is using to fund its illegal war and remaining unyielding in our pursuit of those facilitating evasion of the price cap.”

But as the Treasury seeks to cut off the Kremlin’s access to oil profits, its hunt for crude tankers and shippers violating OFAC guidelines is revealing complexities in its own guidelines and a murky marine industry.

The shipping entities identified on Thursday were United Arab Emirates-based. The vessels were Kazan Shipping Incorporated’s Kazan, Progress Shipping Company Limited’s Ligovsky Prospect, and Gallion Navigation Incorporated’s NS Century. But while those ships are now UAE-based, Matthew Wright, lead analyst of freight at marine intelligence firm Kpler, tells CNBC the location of where the company is based may be different from the location of the beneficial owner. In this case, Wright says the beneficial owner is likely still Russian-based.

“Based on the history of these fleets, these vessels were all owned and operated by Sovcomflot,” Wright said. “Management of all the Sovcomflot ships was transferred to Sun Ship Management in March/April 2022 when their offices in Europe were closed. Those three companies are now managed by a new manager called Oil Tankers SCF Management but it’s just another name. Ownership hasn’t changed since 2006. They’re not part of either the dark or grey fleet really as I consider them still Russian-owned.” 

30 ship owners targeted in new Treasury probe

This is just one example of the murkiness within the Russian oil trade. The probe against 30 shipowners begun earlier this week reveals how identifying and finding proof of vessels traversing the oceans with sanctioned oil is not as straightforward as suggested by initial headlines covering the Treasury allegations. These companies received warning letters from the government about activity deemed suspicious and requests for documentation. There are grey areas in the U.S. government’s Russian oil guidelines, though the efforts can ultimately lead maritime investigators to the truth.

In the U.S. Treasury’s “Preliminary Guidance on Implementation of a Maritime Services Policy and Related Price Exception for Seaborne Russian Oil,” ship owners are under a Tier 2 category. According to the Treasury, this group within the maritime industry are “actors who are sometimes able to request and receive price information from their customers in the ordinary course of business.”

If a ship owner is unable to obtain such pricing information, according to the Treasury’s guidelines, the Tier 2 actors (ship owners) need to request “customer attestations” where their charter customers pledge in a document they will not purchase seaborn Russian oil above the price cap.

This document could provide a “safe harbor” for ship owners who are relying on that customer’s “attestation” to comply with sanctions. This safe harbor is also extended to the ship insurance companies.

“Ship owners rely on the charterer to provide ample proof that the Russian oil on board the vessel has been sold below the price cap,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. “The sanctions can easily be circumvented if a dishonest charterer presents documents that falsify the true cost of the oil.”

Lipow said one clue to suspicious paperwork is a price of oil that is well below the market, selling Russian crude oil in Asia today at $50 per barrel when Brent is trading at $80.

“That is a red flag,” Lipow said.  

Based on the safe harbor, if the ship owner or management company can be absolved of wrongdoing, the documents can still lead Treasury to the charterer.

The U.S. Treasury told CNBC it does not comment on current investigations.

Tracking Russian oil

A breakout of the Russian oil trade by Kpler shows around 30% of Russian exports from Western ports are still using commercial shipping with beneficial ownership within the European Union.

Wright said this “dark fleet” is comprised of vessels typically 20 years and older which have loaded or predominantly loaded Venezuelan or Iranian cargoes in the last few years.

“There is often some evidence that they have been disguising their activities by turning off their AIS, but not in all cases,” said Wright, referring to the automatic identification system used by marine vessels to track location. “Ownership is often opaque and the operator does not engage in standard commercial shipping outside of operating these vessels.”

There are also “grey fleet” vessels sold since the Russian invasion of Ukraine with the aim of transporting Russian exports and avoiding sanctions. These vessels, according to Wright, have had EU ownership.

“Most vessels have been sold by owners based in Europe to owners who were not previously active in the tanker market,” he said. “The owners are based mainly in Hong Kong, China, India, and the UAE.”

The price cap rules state that exports of Russian crude or refined products on EU-owned, insured, or serviced tonnage must be below the relevant price cap.

Since July, Wright says most exports from Russia are assumed to be above the caps, yet a large number of ships from within the EU continue to trade. This is because of the way Russian crude is traded.

“It is very likely vessels loading Russian cargoes that are EU-owned will have documentation showing a crude trade below the price cap, even if the cargo was actually traded above the price cap,” Wright said. “This is because a charterer or middleman will have traded it at a price that can be shown to the owner as part of a wider trade with the final buyer. The (vessel) owner is unlikely to have any evidence to the contrary.”

Vessel owners do not produce these documents, he said, but are provided with these documents by the charterer.

“The vessel owners are merely the custodians of information provided to them,” Wright said.

Beks Shipmanagement & Trading confirmed to CNBC it is among the companies that received warning letters from the Treasury this week and is sending documents to the government. The company had been identified in earlier press reports, though Treasury declined to specify companies to receive letters.

In an email to CNBC, the company rejected the Treasury’s allegations. “Despite the fact that the U.S. Treasury Department requested voyage details from 30 different ship management including 100 vessels, it is an obvious bad faith and reputation damaging purpose that only our management company was mentioned in the news recently circulated in the media,” a Beks spokesperson wrote.

The company, based in Turkey, announced in October the deployment of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite connectivity system across its fleet of 40 bulkers and tankers for enhanced vessel tracking.

“Our vessels are traded worldwide with their tracking system always switched to the on position. We employ our vessels by abiding (by) all international laws and regulations without breaching any sanction regime,” the company wrote in the email.

Beks said it has been conducting due diligence procedures on all of its voyages as well as carrying out the necessary sanction checks with its London-based lawyers.

According to Kpler, Beks Shipmanagement’s fleet had numerous tanker port calls to Russia since the start of sanctions on February 24, 2022. One example is the oil products tanker Bek Aqua.

Kpler was able to track the travel of the tanker using the tanker’s satellite beacons through the AIS short-range coastal tracking system currently used on ships.

The tanker Beks Aqua arrived at the Russian Port of Nakhodka on Oct 26 and was loaded with either diesel or Naptha on November 1. The vessel then arrived at the Port of Singapore on November 10 and departed empty on November 14.

But following the satellite data doesn’t allow for understanding of contract prices.

“While we can track the vessel’s journey from Russia to Singapore, unless we have the sales contract, we do not know the price the oil product was purchased for,” Lipow said. “The only fact we have is companies like Beks Shipping are employed to move Russian oil. It is possible that someone filed false paperwork with the shipowner. This is why tracking the Russian oil sanctions is not straightforward,” he said.

Beks Shipmanagement said the requested voyage details will be provided to the U.S. Treasury with full transparency.

We're using sanctions to deny Russians the weapons they need, Deputy Treasury Sec. Wally Adeyemo

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Why oil is down since the Hamas-Israel conflict started and whether that can last

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These 10 portfolio names outperformed the stock market amid the October decline

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 26, 2023. 

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

Despite a downbeat month for stocks and mounting macroeconomic uncertainty, several Club names outperformed the market in October — and landed in the green.  

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Jim Cramer’s top 10 things to watch in the stock market Tuesday

My top 10 things to watch Tuesday, Oct. 31

1. U.S. stocks edge up in premarket trading Tuesday, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.15%. The move comes after equities rallied Monday, with the S&P rising to its highest level in two months. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was hovering around 4.8%. Oil prices are up around 0.6%, with West Texas Intermediate crude trading at $82.80 a barrel. Broadly, we’re seeing end-of-the-month shenanigans in a still oversold market.

2. Club holding Caterpillar (CAT) delivers a third-quarter earnings beat Tuesday, even as the stock tumbles roughly 4% on lackluster guidance. Nothing matters except the operating margin going lower in the fourth quarter.

3. Club name GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC) outpaces earnings estimates Tuesday, bolstered by a recovery in demand for surgical procedures. The company also raises the low end of its full-year guidance. The stock is having a muted reaction, with shares up slightly, at around $63 apiece.

4. A Wall Street Journal analysis Tuesday argues Club holding Apple (AAPL) will face continued headwinds from China, while its “lucrative” relationship with Club name Alphabet (GOOGL) could also be at risk. It’s a classic negative piece on the company that crystalizes the ‘hate Apple trade’ that’s been going on.

5. MoffettNathanson downgrades Lyft (LYFT) to sell from neutral, while lowering its price target on the stock to $7 a share, down from $10. The firm expects margin compression at the rideshare company, and any long-term guidance to “likely disappoint.” Lyft is set to report third-quarter results on Nov. 8.

6. Baird upgrades one of our favorite technology defense players, L3Harris Technologies (LHX), to outperform from neutral, citing increased funding for defense globally. The firm also raises its price target on the stock to $216 a share, up from $198.

7. Oil giant BP PLC (BP) reports a sharp drop in profits year-over-year for the third quarter, sending shares roughly 4% lower in early trading Tuesday. Must they do a deal, too? There are only so many choices.

8. MoffettNathanson upgrades Roku Inc. (ROKU) to neutral from sell, citing the streaming-device maker’s focus on profitability and free cash flow. In short, the company got its act together and is becoming more dominant.

9. Shares of VF Corporation (VFC), the maker of Vans sneakers, are down nearly 9% in premarket trading after the company withdrew its full-year revenue and profit forecasts Monday. There are so many things wrong, but I think that CEO Bracken Darrell can pull it off. He turned around Logitech International (LOGI) and tripled the S&P over the decade in which he was in the top job.

10. DA Davidson adds Ulta Beauty (ULTA) to its “Best-of-Breed Bison” list. The firm reiterates a buy rating on the stock and a $495-a-share price target.

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(See here for a full list of the stocks at Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.)

As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.

THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER.  NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.  NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

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Why Exxon and Chevron are doubling down on fossil fuel energy with big acquisitions

Prices at a Chevron Corp. gas station in Fontana, California, on Thursday, July 8, 2021.

Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images

On Monday, Chevron announced plans to acquire oil and gas company Hess for $53 billion in stock.

Less than two weeks prior, Exxon Mobil announced it is acquiring oil company Pioneer Natural Resources for $59.5 billion in stock.

On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency released its annual world energy outlook report that projects global demand for coal, oil and natural gas will hit an all-time high by 2030, a prediction the IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol had telegraphed in September.

“The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable. It’s not a question of ‘if,’ it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ — and the sooner the better for all of us,” Birol said in a written statement published alongside his agency’s world outlook. “Taking into account the ongoing strains and volatility in traditional energy markets today, claims that oil and gas represent safe or secure choices for the world’s energy and climate future look weaker than ever.”

But based on their acquisitions, Chevron and Exxon are seemingly preparing for a different world than the IEA is portending.

“The large companies — nongovernment companies — do not see an end to oil demand any time in the near future. That’s one of the messages you have to take from this. They are committed to the industry, to production, to reserves and to spending,” Larry J. Goldstein, a former president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation and a trustee with the not-for-profit Energy Policy Research Foundation, told CNBC in a phone conversation Monday.

“They’re in this in the long haul. They don’t see oil demand declining anytime in the near term. And they see oil demand in fairly large volumes existing for at least the next 20, 25 years,” Goldstein told CNBC. “There’s a major difference between what the big oil companies believe the future of oil is and the governments around the world.”

So, too, says Ben Cahill, a senior fellow in the energy security and climate change program at the bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“There are endless debates about when ‘peak demand’ will occur, but at the moment, global oil consumption is near an all-time high. The largest oil and gas producers in the United States see a long pathway for oil demand,” Cahill told CNBC.

Pioneer Natural Resources crude oil storage tanks near Midland, Texas, on Oct. 11, 2023.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Africa, Asia driving demand

Globally, momentum behind and investment in clean energy is increasing. In 2023, there will be $2.8 trillion invested in the global energy markets, according to a prediction from the IEA in May, and $1.7 trillion of that is expected to be in clean technologies, the IEA said.

The remainder, a bit more than $1 trillion, will go into fossil fuels, such as coal, gas and oil, the IEA said.

Continued demand for oil and gas despite growing momentum in clean energy is due to population growth around the globe and in particular, growth of populations “ascending the socioeconomic ladder” in Africa, Asia and to some extent Latin America, according to Shon Hiatt, director of the Business of Energy Transition Initiative at the USC Marshall School of Business.

Oil and gas are relatively cheap and easy to move around, particularly in comparison with building new clean energy infrastructure.

“These companies believe in the long-term viability of the oil and gas industry because hydrocarbons remain the most cost-effective and easily transportable and storable energy source,” Hiatt told CNBC. “Their strategy suggests that in emerging economies marked by population and economic expansion, the adoption of low-carbon energy sources may be prohibitively expensive, while hydrocarbon demand in European and North American markets, although potentially reduced, will remain a significant factor.”

Also, while electric vehicles are growing in popularity, they are just one section of the transportation pie, and many of the other sections of the transportation sector will continue to use fossil fuels, said Marianne Kah, senior research scholar and board member at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. Kah was previously the chief economist of ConocoPhillips for 25 years.

“While there is a lot of media attention given to the increasing penetration of electric passenger vehicles, global oil demand is still expected to grow in the petrochemical, aviation and heavy-duty trucking sectors,” Kah told CNBC.

Geopolitical pressures also play a role.

Exxon and Chevron are expanding their holdings as European oil and gas majors are more likely to be subject to strict emissions regulations. The U.S. is unlikely to have the political will to force the same kind of stringent regulations on oil and gas companies here.

“One might speculate that Exxon and Chevron are anticipating the European oil majors divesting their global reserves over the next decade due to European policy changes,” Hiatt told CNBC.

“They are also betting domestic politics will not allow the U.S. to take significant new climate policies directed specifically to restrain or limit or ban the level of U.S. oil and gas domestic production,” Amy Myers Jaffe, a research professor at New York University and director of the Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab at NYU’s School of Professional Studies, told CNBC. 

Goldstein expects the ever-expanding U.S. national debt will eventually put all kinds of government subsidies on the chopping block, which he says will also benefit companies such as Exxon and Chevron.

“All subsidies will be under enormous pressure,” Goldstein said, the intensity of that pressure dependent on which party is in the White House at any given time. “By the way, that means the large financial oil companies will be able to weather that environment better than the smaller companies.”

Also, sanctions of state-controlled oil and gas companies in countries like those in Russia, Venezuela and Iran are providing Exxon and Chevron a geopolitical opening, Jaffe said.

“They likely hope that any geopolitically driven market shortfalls to come can be filled by their own production, even if demand for oil overall is reduced through decarbonization policies around the world,” Jaffe told CNBC. “If you imagine oil like the game of musical chairs, Exxon Mobil and Chevron are betting that other countries will fall out of the game regardless of the number of chairs and that there will be enough chairs left for the American firms to sit down, each time the music stops.”

An oil pumpjack pulls oil from the Permian Basin oil field in Odessa, Texas, on March 14, 2022.

Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Oil that can be tapped quickly is a priority

Known oil reserves are increasingly valuable as European and American governments look to limit the exploration for new oil and gas reserves, according to Hiatt.

“Notably, both Pioneer and Hess possess attractive, well-established oil and gas reserves that offer the potential for significant expansion and diversification for Exxon and Chevron,” Hiatt told CNBC.

Oil and gas reserves that can be brought to market relatively quickly “are the ideal candidates for production when there is uncertainty about the pace of the energy transition,” Kah told CNBC, which explains Exxon’s acquisition of Pioneer, which gave Exxon more access to “tight oil,” or oil found in shale rock, in the Permian basin.

Shale is a kind of porous rock that can hold natural gas and oil. It’s accessed with hydraulic fracking, which involves shooting water mixed with sand into the ground to release the fossil fuel reserves held therein. Hydrocarbon reserves found in shale can be brought to market between six months and a year, where exploring for new reserves in offshore deep water can take five to seven years to tap, Jaffe told CNBC.

“Chevron and Exxon Mobil are looking to reduce their costs and lower execution risk through increasing the share of short cycle U.S. shale reserves in their portfolio,” Jaffe said. Having reserves that are easier to bring to market gives oil and gas companies increased ability to be responsive to swings in the price of oil and gas. “That flexibility is attractive in today’s volatile price climate,” Jaffe told CNBC.

Chevron’s purchase of Hess also gives Chevron access in Guyana, a country in South America, which Jaffe also says is desirable because it is “a low cost, close to home prolific production region.”

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What tie-ups in the U.S. oil patch could mean for players like Coterra Energy

Permian Basin rigs in 2020, when U.S. crude oil production dropped by 3 million a day as Wall Street pressure forced cuts.

Paul Ratje | Afp | Getty Images

Exxon Mobil‘s (XOM) planned deal to buy Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) has sparked talk of more consolidation in the oil-and-gas industry. While we don’t own companies as mergers-and-acquisition plays, the potential for more tie-ups could have significant implications for our remaining oil name: Coterra Energy (CTRA).

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Why the hydrogen tax credit has become a lightning rod for controversy

A rendering of a hydrogen energy storage gas tank for clean electricity solar and wind turbine facility.3d rendering

Vanit Janthra | Istock | Getty Images

One of the most generous tax credits in Biden’s landmark climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, is the production tax credit for making hydrogen, which is worth as much as $100 billion.

When hydrogen is used in a fuel cell to generate electricity, water is the only by-product. Generating energy from hydrogen this way does not create carbon dioxide, one of the primary greenhouse gases that causes global warming. Also, hydrogen is a vehicle for storing energy over long periods of time.

Hydrogen is already produced at scale for use in making fertilizer and in the petrochemical industry. But more recently, hydrogen is being seen as a way to decarbonize industries like maritime shipping, long-haul trucking, steel-making, industrial heating, and aerospace. Also, its capacity as an effective way of storing energy makes it attractive for renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, which are inherently intermittent — wind turbines make energy when the wind blows, and solar panels make energy when the sun shines.

However, the only way hydrogen can be a viable solution for reducing carbon emissions is if it can be produced without releasing greenhouse gas emissions. By and large, that’s not the case today.

The proposed tax credit, 45V, is meant to turbocharge the production of low-emissions hydrogen. It’s now up to the Treasury to figure out how to implement it — and that’s the tricky part. The debate centers around how best to write rules that make sure that the hydrogen produced is actually clean so that it can be used as a climate-mitigation tool.

“The IRA’s section 45V production tax credit is the most generous clean hydrogen subsidy in the world,” Jesse Jenkins, professor of macro-scale energy systems at Princeton University, told CNBC.

“But without proper implementation, 45V could backfire, wasting a tremendous opportunity for the United States to become a global leader in new clean industries and causing a significant increase in domestic emissions that imperil U.S. climate goals.”

An Hydrogen prototype GenH2 truck of the Daimler Truck Holding AG arrives at his destination in Berlin, on September 26, 2023, after completing 1047kms with one liquid hydrogen full tank.

John Macdougall | Afp | Getty Images

The adjudication of the hydrogen tax credit has become about more than just the hydrogen tax credit, too. It could also set important precedents for how the government decides electricity used from the grid is really “clean.”

“The hydrogen debate is at its surface level about defining clean hydrogen production, but more fundamentally it’s about what an individual actor needs to do to credibly claim that their electricity consumption is clean,” Wilson Ricks, who works in Jenkins’ Zero-carbon Energy systems Research and Optimization research lab at Princeton, told CNBC.

“Hydrogen is the first time the US government has been forced to directly address the question of verifying clean electricity inputs, so whatever framework it endorses here could set a very strong example for other emissions accounting systems going forward,” Ricks said.

There’s a lot of money on the line and while the details of the debate get a bit wonky, the debate itself represents a larger and more ideological fault line about how the United States should built its clean economy: One side says we should focus on emissions reductions from the outset, while the other says the foundation should be built and scaled quickly and perfected later.

“We have now entered a new phase in the clean energy transition, whereby new solutions and operational paradigms are necessary to accommodate an increasingly renewable grid and catalyze decarbonization. The clean hydrogen tax credits are a major opportunity, and juncture, to start shaping that new phase in the right way,” Rachel Fakhry, the policy director for emerging technologies at the Natural Resources Defense Council, told CNBC.

How clean is ‘clean,’ and how is that decided?

Hydrogen is the simplest element and the most abundant substance in the universe, but hydrogen atoms do not exist on their own on Earth. Hydrogen atoms are generally stuck to other atoms — like for example in water, H2O — and so creating sources of pure hydrogen on Earth requires energy to break those molecular bonds.

In the energy business, people refer to hydrogen by an array of colors to as shorthand for how it was produced. The different methods produce varying amounts of CO2.

The amount of the hydrogen tax credit, which is available for 10 years, depends on the emissions generated in making hydrogen. If hydrogen is produced without releasing any carbon emissions, the tax credit is maxed out at $3 per kilogram of hydrogen. The tax credit scales down proportionally based on the quantity of emissions released.

One way of making hydrogen is with a process called electrolysis, when electricity is passed through a substance to force a chemical change — in this case, splitting H2O into hydrogen and oxygen. To make hydrogen with electrolysis, hydrogen producers may use electricity from the larger energy grid. The electricity on the grid comes from many sources, some clean, like a solar farm, and some dirty, like from a coal-fired plant. On the electric grid, all that electricity gets mixed together.

So the debate over the 45V tax credit has become acutely focused on accounting for how the electricity hydrogen producers use from the grid is accounted for. If the energy used to make hydrogen is not actually clean, then hydrogen is not really a climate solution.

Some hydrogen industry stakeholders want the Treasury to implement strict electricity accounting standards to maximize the likelihood that the tax credits only go to hydrogen that is produced with the least possible amount of emissions.

Others want the Treasury to implement very flexible standards so the hydrogen industry can grow as fast as possible as quickly as possible, then focus on emissions reduction once it’s scaled.

Energy used from the grid to power electrolysis to make clean, “green hydrogen” must meet three accounting standards in order to ensure that it is actually produced in a clean way, according to Jenkins from Princeton. These standards have become known as the “three pillars:”

  • Additionality. The electricity has to come from newly-built sources of clean electricity, meaning it is additional clean energy being added to the grid for the purpose of making hydrogen.
  • Regional deliverability. The clean electricity added to the grid has to be able to physically travel from the additional clean energy source to the electrolysis facility, meaning it is regionally deliverable electricity.
  • Hourly matching. The additional and deliverable clean electricity that powers electrolyzers has to be accounted for on an hourly basis. If the electricity is accounted for on an annual basis, then electrolyzers used to generate hydrogen could be running when additional clean energy is not regionally available — when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining, for example. That means those electrolyzers could be powered by fossil fuels.

“We call these requirements ‘pillars’ because all three are structurally critical: remove any one and the whole ‘clean’ hydrogen house comes tumbling down,” Jenkins told CNBC.

Peer-reviewed modeling work by our group and follow-up studies by other academics have shown that simply plugging electrolyzers into the grid would produce hydrogen with embodied emissions twice as bad as ‘grey’ hydrogen produced from fossil methane. In fact, even an electrolyzer getting just 2% of its electricity from natural gas plants or less than 1% from coal would violate the strict statutory emissions requirements to claim the $3 per kilogram subsidy,” Jenkins said.

Taking sides

Some companies in the hydrogen industry, including electrolyzer producer Electric Hydrogen, clean energy company Intersect Power, industrial heat and power company Rondo, and grid carbon data provider Singularity have publicly pleaded for the Treasury to adopt these “three pillars” of strict electricity accounting for the 45V hydrogen tax credit.

Digital generated image of wind turbines, solar panels and Hydrogen containers standing on landscape against blue sky.

Andriy Onufriyenko | Moment | Getty Images

Air Products, an 80-year old company that sells gases and chemicals for industrial uses, also supports the three pillars of additionality, regional deliverability and hourly matching for the 45V tax credits. Air Products operates in about 50 countries around the globe, has over 200,000 customers, over 110 production facilities around the globe for hydrogen, and already has over 700 miles of dedicated hydrogen pipelines.

“We’ve been producing, distributing, dispensing hydrogen for over 60 years,” Eric Guter, a vice president of hydrogen production at Air Products, told CNBC in a video interview at the end of August.

“If we don’t deliver on the emissions reduction, we will lose the confidence of society in hydrogen and the energy transition. And as a long-term provider of hydrogen, it’s important to us that we get it right and preserve the integrity of the energy transition and the hydrogen industry.”

Josef Kallo, founder and chief executive officer of H2FLY, beside the HY4 liquid hydrogen powered electric aircraft at Maribor airport in Slovenia, on Thursday, Sept. 7, 2023. The aircraft, developed by H2FLY and partners, uses liquid hydrogen to power a hydrogen-electric fuel cell system.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Air Products already has two projects under construction that will be compliant with the three-pillars approach. Air Products is part owner of the NEOM Green Hydrogen Company, which is currently building a plant at Oxagon, Saudi Arabia, and which will be three pillars complaint. It’s also part owner of a mega-scale renewable-power-to-hydrogen project in Wilbarger County, Texas.

The European Union will need to import hydrogen, and has already decided to institute the “three pillars” in its hydrogen accounting, Guter told CNBC. So Air Products wants hydrogen produced in the United States to meet international standards.

“Otherwise our products won’t qualify or they will be taxed at the EU border for imports,” Guter said. “We’re talking about a global liftoff, not just U.S. liftoff, of the hydrogen market.”

On the other side of the debate, utility company and energy giant NextEra wants the Treasury to accept annual — as opposed to hourly — matching RECs as sufficiently specific.

“Starting with annual matching would boost green hydrogen investment and lead to greater overall decarbonization potential, allowing the industry to develop the first wave of hydrogen projects and build industry knowledge. If an hourly matching is enacted too early, it will limit U.S. green hydrogen investment, production and the country’s ability to lower emissions, and stifle innovation,” Phil Musser, vice president of federal government affairs at NextEra Energy, told CNBC in a written statement from.   

So, too, does the Clean Hydrogen Future Coalition, which is a trade group representing a diversity of stakeholders from BP to Duke Energy, Exxon Mobile, General Electric, Siemens Energy, American Clean Power, Shell and more. The Clean Hydrogen Future Coalition also says that no additionality should be required for companies looking to produce clean hydrogen, meaning companies do not have to be responsible for putting “additional” clean energy on the grid to get access to the tax credit.

“We’re not suggesting that we should do this indefinitely,” Shannon Angielski, president of the Clean Hydrogen Future Coalition, told CNBC in a video interview at the end of August. “Rather, let the industry start to make investments in that full ecosystem, send signals throughout that supply chain to make investments, and enable an industry to get seeded with the tax credits, and then over time, become more restrictive.”

The Clean Hydrogen Future Coalition proposes becoming more restrictive in those electricity accounting standards starting in 2030. The electricity accounting systems for monitoring electricity usage on a more granular level is not robust and standardized enough on a federal level, Angielski said, for hourly matching electricity accounting to be required.

But technology does exist to allow hourly matching, Wenbo Shi, the CEO of Singularity, told CNBC. His company makes that technology.

“Hourly and even sub-hourly clean energy matching is not only technologically feasible, but it is already being implemented and used by many. The barrier to adoption is not technology, but policy,” Shi told CNBC.

There are also barriers to getting additional sources of clean energy on the electric grid, Angielski told CNBC. For example, interconnection queues, which are the lines power generators have to wait on to apply to get new sources of clean energy connected to the grid, are years long and make the additionality requirement a barrier for the hydrogen industry.

“What we don’t want to do is wait to be able to actually start investing in low-carbon hydrogen,” Angielski said.

But Ricks doesn’t think there needs to be such a rush.

“The ‘order of operations’ for the energy transition has always been a subject of debate in the policy world: should we use our resources to push rapid near-term decarbonization, or instead support scale-up of nascent technologies that we think we’ll need in the future? Supporters of lax rules for hydrogen subsidies have sought to frame the debate in this way, but in this case it is a false choice,” Ricks told CNBC. “The hydrogen subsidies are large enough to support scale-up even with strict rules, and the absence of these rules would likely drive significant excess emissions for decades — hardly a near-term impact.”

Fakhry from the NRDC says it’s very possible that the IRA is going to incentivize more hydrogen than needed for the clean energy transition, especially depending on how the Treasury dictates the rules.

“It’s really hard to say if there will be excess or not. What we can say for sure is if the rules are very, very lax and hydrogen production can happen anywhere without any guardrails, then yes, we will have a lot of hydrogen production that will go to fairly bad end uses,” Fakhry told CNBC.

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Here are all the portfolio moves the Club made in this week’s oversold market

People walk by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on February 14, 2023 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty Images

With the stock market deeply oversold this week, we put cash to work by picking stocks across a range of sectors including energy, technology and materials. We also added a former Club chipmaker to our Bullpen and upgraded a premium beer name to a buy rating. Finally, Friday’s market reversal helped us make good on a pledge to trim a once-downtrodden health-care stock.

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