Jim Cramer’s top 10 things to watch in the stock market Tuesday

My top 10 things to watch Tuesday, Oct. 31

1. U.S. stocks edge up in premarket trading Tuesday, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.15%. The move comes after equities rallied Monday, with the S&P rising to its highest level in two months. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was hovering around 4.8%. Oil prices are up around 0.6%, with West Texas Intermediate crude trading at $82.80 a barrel. Broadly, we’re seeing end-of-the-month shenanigans in a still oversold market.

2. Club holding Caterpillar (CAT) delivers a third-quarter earnings beat Tuesday, even as the stock tumbles roughly 4% on lackluster guidance. Nothing matters except the operating margin going lower in the fourth quarter.

3. Club name GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC) outpaces earnings estimates Tuesday, bolstered by a recovery in demand for surgical procedures. The company also raises the low end of its full-year guidance. The stock is having a muted reaction, with shares up slightly, at around $63 apiece.

4. A Wall Street Journal analysis Tuesday argues Club holding Apple (AAPL) will face continued headwinds from China, while its “lucrative” relationship with Club name Alphabet (GOOGL) could also be at risk. It’s a classic negative piece on the company that crystalizes the ‘hate Apple trade’ that’s been going on.

5. MoffettNathanson downgrades Lyft (LYFT) to sell from neutral, while lowering its price target on the stock to $7 a share, down from $10. The firm expects margin compression at the rideshare company, and any long-term guidance to “likely disappoint.” Lyft is set to report third-quarter results on Nov. 8.

6. Baird upgrades one of our favorite technology defense players, L3Harris Technologies (LHX), to outperform from neutral, citing increased funding for defense globally. The firm also raises its price target on the stock to $216 a share, up from $198.

7. Oil giant BP PLC (BP) reports a sharp drop in profits year-over-year for the third quarter, sending shares roughly 4% lower in early trading Tuesday. Must they do a deal, too? There are only so many choices.

8. MoffettNathanson upgrades Roku Inc. (ROKU) to neutral from sell, citing the streaming-device maker’s focus on profitability and free cash flow. In short, the company got its act together and is becoming more dominant.

9. Shares of VF Corporation (VFC), the maker of Vans sneakers, are down nearly 9% in premarket trading after the company withdrew its full-year revenue and profit forecasts Monday. There are so many things wrong, but I think that CEO Bracken Darrell can pull it off. He turned around Logitech International (LOGI) and tripled the S&P over the decade in which he was in the top job.

10. DA Davidson adds Ulta Beauty (ULTA) to its “Best-of-Breed Bison” list. The firm reiterates a buy rating on the stock and a $495-a-share price target.

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What tie-ups in the U.S. oil patch could mean for players like Coterra Energy

Permian Basin rigs in 2020, when U.S. crude oil production dropped by 3 million a day as Wall Street pressure forced cuts.

Paul Ratje | Afp | Getty Images

Exxon Mobil‘s (XOM) planned deal to buy Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) has sparked talk of more consolidation in the oil-and-gas industry. While we don’t own companies as mergers-and-acquisition plays, the potential for more tie-ups could have significant implications for our remaining oil name: Coterra Energy (CTRA).

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How gas station economics will change in the electric vehicle charging future

As electric vehicles proliferate, some gas stations are making expensive overhauls to add EV charging stations. 

In most cases, they aren’t scrapping traditional liquid fuel pumps. But select locations, including an RS Automotive in Takoma Park, Md., and a Shell station in Fulham, England, have made a full switch.

Location, cost, power requirements and conversion time are among the multiple considerations that factor into a gas station’s decision to convert all or a portion of their existing infrastructure to allow for EV charging. 

“Figuring out how to do this on an active site can be complex and challenging,” said Neha Palmer, chief executive of TeraWatt Infrastructure, which is developing a network of electric vehicle charging centers for fleet operations across California, Arizona, and New Mexico. “How do you sequence the construction when you have vehicles that might want to fuel there?” 

Here’s what gas station owners need to know about the EV charging trend and their future.

The EV fast-charging model

Locations like office complexes, hospitals and hotels typically offer a slower charging option, since people generally stay put for hours at a time. Gas stations, however, are investing in Level 3 chargers, which are more powerful and generally charge a car in 20 to 30 minutes. 

While slower charging stations are often free to motorists, that’s not generally true for fast charging stations, given ongoing operational expenses such as electricity and extra fees charged by utilities in commercial settings, said Seth Cutler, chief operating officer of EV Connect, whose software tools help companies build charging station networks.

Big oil company franchisers and car dealers are on board

For large oil giants, adding EV chargers is both a defensive and offensive play. 

Gas station numbers have been decreasing at a sharp rate in the past three decades and the trend is expected to continue in the coming years, according to Shubhendra Anand, vice president of research and strategy at Market Research Future. In fact, at least a quarter of service stations globally are at risk of closure by 2035 without significant business model tweaks, according to consulting firm BCG.

The Biden administration has a stated goal of having 500,000 electric vehicle chargers nationally where EVs make up at least 50% of new car sales by 2030. By current administration estimates, there are more than three million EVs and more than 130,000 public chargers nationwide.

The European oil majors are among the energy sector leaders in the global EV charging push.

Shell has EV-charging-only mobility hubs in China and the Netherlands, in addition to the Fulham location. The company intends to own more than 70,000 public EV charge points worldwide by 2025, and 200,000 by 2030, according to an email statement from Barbara Stoyko, senior vice president of mobility for Shell Americas.

BP also sees the need for mixed-use hybrid refueling and EV charging stations, according to Sujay Sharma, chief executive of BP’s electric vehicle charging business in the U.S. “Today’s gas stations are well positioned to adopt EV charging due to locations in high-demand areas, in addition to their existing convenience offerings including restrooms, food and beverage,” Sharma stated in an email. 

Franchise car dealers are also increasingly getting on board, thanks to pushes from automakers like GM and Ford.

As of late last year, 65% of Ford’s dealers had opted into the EV certification program (a little under 2,000, according to data shared by Ford), as it has started to make the role of car dealers central to the EV transition process. 

The National Automobile Dealers Association said in a May release that franchise owners will spend an estimated $5.5 billion on EV infrastructure across OEM brands, with per store costs ranging from $100,000 to over $1 million. 

Upfront costs can be jaw-dropping, incentives help

Adding EV charging capabilities is not a one-two decision that owners should take lightly. Indeed, the return on investment could be seven to 10 years on average, according to an estimate provided by Yair Nechmad, co-founder and chief executive of Nayax, a global commerce enablement and payments platform, which offers its services to gas stations.

The hardware and software for fast charging can run between $50,000 for one charger and $500,000 for multiple fast chargers and dispensers, said Michael Hughes, chief revenue officer of ChargePoint Holdings, a technology company that makes EV charging hardware and software to help drivers find local charging stations and amenities. The infrastructure, meanwhile, which includes the cost of breaking ground, running power, permits and contractors, generally costs about twice that, he said.

That makes it advisable to incur all the infrastructure changes upfront, even if a gas station only intends to make a few chargers available at the onset, said Rohan Puri, chief executive of Stable Auto Corporation, which helps make charging stations more profitable for companies that own and operate them. His advice: “Put in as much power as you think you’re going to need in 10 years.”

There are numerous federal, state and utility-based incentives for commercial businesses to purchase and install fast chargers. This includes the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Administration NEVI Formula Program, which provides generous funding to states to strategically deploy EV charging stations. 

Gas station owners can search for information on incentive programs they may qualify for.

Location is a key factor, gas station franchise concerns

Even with incentives, there can be barriers to entry, location being a major factor. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, 80 percent of EV charging happens at home, which makes adding EV charging less appealing for in-town gas stations, Hughes said. Local gas stations also don’t generally have amenities to keep people entertained while they are charging their vehicles.

Real estate can also be prohibitive. A traditional gas station may have two islands with four pumps each for liquid fuel; the same utilization rate would require about 40 charging stations, Hughes said.

By contrast, gas stations along major highways between highly traveled destinations can be ideal for electric charging hubs. These locations tend to have multiple amenities, offering people the opportunity to grab a cup of coffee, get a quick bite to eat, stretch their legs or walk the dog while they charge their vehicle, Hughes said.

Convenience stores like Sheetz, Wawa, Royal Farms and Buc-ee’s that double as gas station operators are also starting to add electric chargers at certain locations, said Albert Gore, executive director of The Zero Emission Transportation Association, a federal coalition that advocates for EVs, and who is a former Tesla and SolarCity executive. It can’t be “a place that you’re just going to run in and buy a Snickers,” Gore said.

While there can be a first-mover advantage for gas stations, some owners, like Blake Smith, founder of SQRL Holdings, a gas station and convenience store operator, are taking it slow. His company operates more than 150 convenience store gas station locations and offers electric charging in select locations in Florida. By contrast, the company hasn’t installed any EV charges in Arkansas, where it has more than 60 stations.

“I would never recoup my investment,” he said, adding that a move to all electric charging could be decades away. “We’re not flipping a switch to where gas vehicles are getting off the road and it will be EV-only.”

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Jim Cramer’s top 10 things to watch in the stock market Tuesday

My top 10 things to watch Tuesday, May 2

1. DuPont (DD) delivers a first-quarter earnings beat Tuesday, with adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) of 84 cents, compared with analysts’ forecasts of 80 cents per share. But the materials giant cut its full-year revenue forecast, sending shares nearly 5% lower in premarket trading. DuPont also says it’s agreed to buy Spectrum Plastics Group from AEA Investors for $1.75 billion, in a deal that should be immediately accretive.

2. Club holding Morgan Stanley (MS) is planning to cut 3,000 jobs in the bank’s second round of layoffs in six months, Reuters reported Monday.

3. Tesla (TSLA) raises prices on some models of its electric vehicles in the U.S., China, Japan and Canada. The news come after several rounds of price cuts earlier this year.

4. Citi calls SoFi Technologies‘ (SOFI) post-earnings sell-off “unwarranted,” while reiterating a buy rating and $10-per-share price target. Meanwhile, Wedbush downgrades SOFI to neutral from outperform and lowers its price target to $5 per share, from $8.

5. TD Cowen raises its price target on health insurer Humana (HUM) to $616 per share, from $581, while reiterating an outperform rating. The Club holding last week delivered a first-quarter earnings beat and raised its guidance.

6. Uber Technologies (UBER) reports a first-quarter revenue beat of $8.82 billion, ahead of analysts’ forecasts for $8.72 billion, sending the stock soaring by nearly 10% in premarket trading. The company reports an EPS loss of 8 cents, compared with expectations for a 9 cent-per-share loss, while guiding for gross bookings of $33 billion to $34 billion in the second quarter.

7. BP reports stronger-than-expected first-quarter profits on Tuesday, with its underlying replacement cost profit coming in at $4.96 billion on the back of strong oil-and-gas trading. The British oil major expects to deliver share buybacks totaling $4 billion for the year, at the lower end of its capital expenditure range of $14 billion to $18 billion. Shares of BP were down roughly 5% in premarket trading.

8. Morgan Stanley raises its price target on Exxon Mobil (XOM) to $122 per share, from $118, while reiterating an overweight rating on the stock. The bank cites the U.S. oil major’s record first-quarter profit, which it reported last Friday.

9. Bank of America raises its price target on Brinker International (EAT) to $33 per share, from $29, reflecting a higher market multiple. But the firm maintains its underperform, or sell, rating on EAT stock.

10. The CEO of International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), Arvind Krishna, said the company plans to pause hiring for back-office roles that could be replaced by artificial intelligence (AI) in the coming years. “I could easily see 30% [roughly 7,800 jobs] of that getting replaced by AI and automation over a five-year period,” Krishna told Bloomberg.

(See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.)

As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.

THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER.  NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.  NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

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The big new Exxon Mobil climate change deal that got an assist from Joe Biden


Could it be that Big Oil’s next big thing got a big assist from Joe Biden?

Maybe, if carbon capture and storage is indeed as big a deal as ExxonMobil’s first-of-its-kind deal to extract, transport and store carbon from other companies’ factories implies.

The deal, announced last month, calls for ExxonMobil to capture carbon emitted by CF Industries‘ ammonia factory in Donaldsonville, La., and transport it to underground storage using pipelines owned by Enlink Midstream. Set to start up in 2025, the deal is meant to herald a new stage in dealing with carbon produced by manufacturers, and is the latest step in ExxonMobil’s often-tense dialogue with investors who want oil companies to slash emissions.

The Inflation Reduction Act, passed in August, may determine whether deals like Exxon’s become a trend. The law expands tax credits for capturing carbon from industrial uses in a bid to offset the high up-front costs of plans to capture carbon from places like CF’s plant, as other tax credits in the law lower costs of renewable power and electric cars. 

The Inflation Reduction Act and Big Oil

The law may help oil companies like ExxonMobil build profitable businesses to replace some of the revenue and profit they’ll lose as EVs proliferate. Though the company isn’t sharing financial projections, it has committed to investing $15 billion in CCS by 2027 and ExxonMobil Low-Carbon Solutions president Dan Ammann says it may invest more.

“We see a big business opportunity here,” Ammann told CNBC’s David Faber. “We’re seeing interest from companies across a whole range of industries, a whole range of sectors, a whole range of geographies.”

The deal calls for ExxonMobil to capture and remove 2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide yearly from CF’s factory, equivalent to replacing 700,000 gasoline-powered vehicles with electric versions. 

Each company involved is pursuing its own version of the low-carbon industrial economy. CF wants to produce more carbon-free blue ammonia, a process that often involves extracting ammonia’s components from carbon-laden fossil fuels. Enlink hopes to become a kind of railroad for captured CO2 emissions, calling itself the would-be “CO2 transportation provider of choice” for an industrial corridor laden with refineries and chemical plants. 

An industrial facility on the Houston Ship Channel where Exxon Mobil is proposing a carbon capture and sequestration network. Between this industry-wide plan and its first deal for another company’s CCS needs, ExxonMobil is hoping that its low-carbon business quickly scales to a legitimate source of revenue and profit.

CNBC

Exxon itself wants to develop carbon capture as a new business, Amman said, pointing to a “very big backlog of similar projects,” part of the company’s pledge to remove as much carbon from the atmosphere as Exxon itself emits by 2050.  

“We want oil companies to be active participants in carbon reduction,” said Julio Friedmann, a deputy assistant energy secretary under President Obama and chief scientist at Carbon Direct in New York. “It’s my expectation that this can become a flagship project.”

The key to the sudden flurry of activity is the Inflation Reduction Act.

“It’s a really good example of the intersection of good policy coming together with business and the innovation that can happen on the business side to tackle the big problem of emissions and the big problem of climate change,” Ammann said. “The interest we are seeing, the backlog, are all confirming this is starting to move and starting to move quickly.”

The law increased an existing tax credit for carbon capture to $85 a ton from $45, Goldman said, which will save the Exxon/CF/Enlink project as much as $80 million a year. Credits for captured carbon used underground to enhance production of more fossil fuels are lower, at $60 per ton.

“Carbon capture is a big boys’ game,” said Peter McNally, global sector lead for industrial, materials and energy research at consulting firm Third Bridge. “These are billion-dollar projects. It’s big companies capturing large amounts of carbon. And big oil and gas companies are where the expertise is.” 

Goldman Sachs, and environmentalists, are skeptical

A Goldman Sachs team led by analyst Brian Singer called the law “transformative” for climate reduction technologies including battery storage and clean hydrogen. But its analysis is less bullish when it comes to the impact on carbon capture projects like Exxon’s, with Singer expecting more modest gains as the law accelerates development in longer-term projects. To speed up investment more, companies must build CCS systems at greater scale and invent more efficient carbon-extraction chemistry, the Goldman team said.

Industrial uses are the third-largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S., according to the EPA. That’s narrowly behind both electricity production and transportation. Emissions reduction in industrial uses is considered more expensive and difficult than in either power generation or car and truck transport. Industry is the focus for CCS because utilities and vehicle makers are looking first to other technologies to cut emissions.

Almost 20 percent of U.S. electricity last year came from renewable sources that replace coal and natural gas and another 19 percent came from carbon-free nuclear power, according to government data. Renewables’ share is rising rapidly in 2022, according to interim Energy Department reports, and the IRA also expands tax credits for wind and solar power. Most airlines plan to reduce their carbon footprint by switching to biofuels over the next decade.

More oil and chemical companies seem likely to get on the carbon capture bandwagon first. In May, British oil giant BP and petrochemical maker Linde announced a plan to capture 15 million tons of carbon annually at Linde’s plants in Greater Houston. Linde wants to expand its sales of low-carbon hydrogen, which is usually made by mixing natural gas with steam and a chemical catalyst. In March, Oxy announced a deal with a unit of timber producer Weyerhauser. Oxy won the rights to store carbon underneath 30,000 acres of Weyerhauser’s forest land, even as it continues to grow trees on the surface, with both companies prepared to expand to other sites over time.

Still, environmentalists remain skeptical of CCS.

Tax credits may cut the cost of CCS to companies, but taxpayers still foot the bill for what remains a “boondoggle,” said Carroll Muffett, CEO of the Center for International Environmental Law in Washington. The biggest part of industrial emissions comes from the electricity that factories use, and factory owners should reduce that part of their carbon footprint with renewable power as a top priority, he said.

“It makes no economic sense at the highest levels, and the IRA doesn’t change that,” Muffett said. “It just changes who takes the risk.” 

Friedman countered by saying economies of scale and technical innovations will trim costs, and that CCS can reduce carbon emissions by as much as 10 percent over time.

“It’s a rather robust number,” Friedmann said. “And it’s about things you can’t easily address any other way.” 



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