Tag: Russia-Ukraine crisis

The story so far: Saudi Arabia is set to host Ukraine, the U.S., some European countries and major developing countries including India and Brazil for peace talks on the Russia-Ukraine war on August 5 and 6 in the Red Sea port city of Jeddah. The development was first reported by the Wall Street Journal earlier this week, noting that top officials from up to 30 countries, excluding Russia, had been invited for the talks where Ukraine is seeking to garner support for its 10-point peace plan proposed last year.

Has the time for effective peace negotiations on Russia-Ukraine come?

While Russia has shown no signs of retreating from the frontlines in its now 17-month-old military operation against neighbour Ukraine, the latter also seems keen on fighting it out on the battlefield on the back of its retaking of the key cities Kherson and Kharkiv last fall. It also has its military position currently strengthened by the billions of dollars worth of arms and equipment flowing in from Europe and the U.S., where President Joe Biden reiterated last month that he would provide Ukraine with defence funding for “as long as it takes”.

Notably, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in May that he did not think peace negotiations in the Ukraine war were “possible at this stage”, when both sides were “convinced that they can win”. Analysts, too, are near unanimous in saying that they do not envision effective peace talks that could end the conflict in the near future.

While both Ukraine and Russia have signalled their openness to talk on global platforms, they squarely reject what peace would look like for the other. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to hold his position that peace negotiations cannot happen without the withdrawal of Russian troops and that Ukraine should be in the driver’s seat and define its own terms of peace. The 10-point peace plan that Mr. Zelenskyy is promoting since last year’s G-20 Summit — involves the withdrawal of Russian troops and restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity as per its 1991 borders post the breakdown of the Soviet Union and reaffirming it according to the UN Charter, besides prosecuting war crimes committed by Russia. Russia, which has rejected the plan and is unwilling to cede any of the captured territory in Ukraine has said, meanwhile, that any negotiation should happen factoring in “new realities”, indicating redrawn borders including the territories it has annexed.

In a bid to placate countries that have not imposed sanctions against it and continue to be non-aligned trade partners, Moscow has publically shown willingness to come to the negotiating table, putting the blame on Ukraine for the continuing conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin said in December 2022, that was “ready to negotiate with everyone involved” on an acceptable solution, it was Kyiv that was was “refusing” to talk.

A January paper by the RAND Corporation on the trajectory of the current conflict outlines impediments that have historically made ending wars difficult, which indicate why the possibility of real peace negotiations may not be so close. First is when both states disagree about their prospects for victory. While Ukraine remains optimistic about its counteroffensives banking on the West’s support, Mr. Putin continues his fight with a fifth of Ukranian territory captured and a future mobilisation looming as he remains largely unopposed back home.

Analysts also point out other hindrances to current peace negotiations; while some countries have suggested a ceasefire, Ukraine does not trust Russia to uphold it, also believing that any break from the battlefield would give Russia time to recoup and come back it more force. Before any sort of negotiated end to the conflict, Ukraine is also demanding a long-term security plan from the West or NATO, keeping in mind that Russia would continue to be its neighbour, while the latter’s rationale behind launching the offensive was the extension of military alliances in its neighbourhood.

What kind of negotiations have taken place so far?

In the initial weeks of the conflict which started in February last year, the two parties engaged in talks for temporary ceasefires for creating humanitarian corridors. Direct negotiations on peace (which first happened in Belarus and Turkey) between the two have not happened since May last year, where the prospect of Ukraine never seeking NATO membership was discussed. Talks broke down as evidence of war atrocities in Ukraine and Russian attacks on civilians began to mount. Since then, the International Criminal Court at the Hague has issued an arrest warrant against Mr. Putin.

Besides, Russia, recently pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Deal brokered by Turkey and the UN after a year. The deal, which allowed the movement of 32.9 million metric tonnes of foodgrains from Ukraine through a safe corridor, was the one negotiation which was seen as fairly effective, even though a sizeable portion of grains were shipped to China and high-income countries.

Since last year, however, multiple countries and blocs have shown willingness to become mediators between the two parties, offering their own roadmaps for peace. While no plan has yet been accepted by both Russia and Ukraine, it has highlighted strategic attempts at mediation by influential players in other parts of the globe as the West’s current position remains that of supporting Kyiv militarily.

What is the peace plan proposed by China?

In February this year, China came out with a 12-point plan for the “political settlement of the Ukraine crisis”. While the Chinese Foreign Ministry promoted it as the launch of a peace initiative by Beijing, it was seen as an attempt to placate criticism of its silence on Russia’s actions, as a repetition of its already expressed positions on the war and as skewed in favour of Moscow. While Kyiv outrightly rejected the proposal, Russia has said that it could serve as a “basis for the basis of some processes aimed at the search for peace”, but had some provisions, like a ceasefire, that were “impossible” to implement.

The plan reiterated China’s support for territorial integrity of states and the UN Charter, condemned using of nuclear power in wars, and called for the ceasing of hostilities and resumption of talks. However, it also called for “abandoning cold war mentality”, adding that security should not be achieved by expanding military alliances, pointing towards NATO and the West. The plan was seen favouring Russia as it also called for countries to stop “abusing” unilateral sanctions.

A March paper by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace notes that the vague nature of China’s plan reflects its varied interest. First, Beijing squarely expressed support for territorial integrity factoring in its position on Taiwan and other border issues with countries like India. Besides its strategic and economic ties with Russia, Beijing has also been a beneficiary of the conflict as Russia is once again seen as its junior power, relying on it for diplomatic support in the face of the West and for helping its economy by buying goods amid Western sanctions. China’s position paper was also seen as an attempt to position itself as a responsible power in the Global South and the UN security council, as the only member who worked on initiating a peace process.

What about the peace initiatives proposed by Africa and others?

In June, leaders of seven African countries, led by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, visited Russia and Ukraine with a 10-point proposal which suggested the recognition of Russia and Ukraine’s sovereignty, and the release of prisoners. It also called for keeping the exports of foodgrains unhindered; for a de-escalation of fighting, and for peace negotiations between the two sides to start at the earliest.

Notably, the war has meant rising inflation and a shortage of grain and fertilizers for many countries in the African continent, which import these products from Ukraine and Russia respectively. As per the African Development Bank, the conflict is directly responsible for a shortage of about 30 million tonnes of grain in Africa. The plan was also seen as an attempt at peace by African countries who have not outrightly condemned Russia and abstained from UN resolutions against it.

Meanwhile, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva earlier suggested that he could lead a “peace club” of countries who are not involved in the war and are militarily non-aligned, to broker discussions between the two sides. The leader, whose efforts were seen as an attempt to bring Brazil back to global relevance after the divisive Jair Bolsonaro regime, drew criticism from Ukraine and the West, as he also suggested that the West was prolonging the conflict by supplying arms to Kyiv. He suggested earlier that the decision to start war was “made by two countries,” appearing to place some blame on Ukraine.

Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto also proposed last month, a ceasefire “at present positions” and demilitarised zones that would be guaranteed by observers and United Nations peacekeeping forces. He also suggested an eventual “referendum in the disputed areas” organised by the UN. He drew criticism from the EU, which said that peace in the Ukraine conflict had to be “just”, and not a “peace of surrender”. 

What is known about the upcoming talks in Jeddah?

The United Kingdom, EU, South Africa, and Poland have already confirmed their attendance for the talks. The U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is also likely to attend.

The head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak said that Kyiv was trying to get as many countries involved in a meeting in Saudi Arabia about implementing Ukraine’s 10-point plan “to restore lasting and just peace”. Russia, which had rejected the plan, does not appear to be among those invited to the Jeddah talks. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Russia would follow the meeting closely to understand its goals, adding that any attempt to promote a “peaceful settlement deserves a positive evaluation”. He added, however, that Kyiv did not want peace if it was being “used exclusively as a too in the war of the collective West with Russia”.

While observers are not expecting an overall breakthrough from the talks when it comes to achieving peace in protracted conflict, it is being seen as a constructive way of promoting third-party mediation by players apart from the West, and of bringing to the table both the West non-aligned countries of the Global South, which have refused to isolate Russia. Notably, Saudi Arabia maintains close ties with Moscow and is a part of the influential oil cartel OPEC+. It has also drawn criticism for cutting oil outputs and driving out prices at a time when supplies from Russia face sanctions.

The New York Times pointed out that Saudi Arabia’s decision to host the talks also appears to be a part of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s posturing as a global leader who can wield influence beyond his region. Last year, Saudi Arabia helped broker the return of 10 foreign nationals captured by Russia.