Friday’s S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 rebalance may reflect concerns over concentration risk

It’s arguably the biggest stock story of 2023: a small number of giant technology companies now make up a very large part of big indexes like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100. 

Five companies (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia and Alphabet) make up about 25% of the S&P 500. Six companies (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Alphabet and Broadcom) make up about 40% of the Nasdaq-100. 

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are rebalancing their respective indexes this Friday. While this is a routine event, some of the changes may reflect the concerns over concentration risk. 

A ton of money is pegged to a few indexes 

Now that the CPI and the Fed meeting are out of the way, these rebalances are the last major “liquidity events” of the year, corresponding with another notable trading event: triple witching, or the quarterly expiration of stock options, index options and index futures. 

This is an opportunity for the trading community to move large blocks of stock for the last gasps of tax loss harvesting or to position for the new year. Trading volume will typically drop 30%-40% in the final two weeks of the year after triple witching, with only the final trading day showing significant volume.

All of this might appear of only academic interest, but the big move to passive index investing in the past 20 years has made these events more important to investors. 

When these indexes are adjusted, either because of additions or deletions, or because share counts change, or because the weightings are changed to reduce the influence of the largest companies, it means a lot of money moves in and out of mutual funds and ETFs that are directly or indirectly tied to the indexes. 

Standard & Poor’s estimates that nearly $13 trillion is directly or indirectly indexed to the S&P 500. The three largest ETFs (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) are all directly indexed to the S&P 500 and collectively have nearly $1.2 trillion in assets under management. 

Linked to the Nasdaq-100 — the 100 largest nonfinancial companies listed on Nasdaq — the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is the fifth-largest ETF, with roughly $220 billion in assets under management. 

S&P 500: Apple and others will be for sale. Uber going in 

For the S&P 500, Standard & Poor’s will adjust the weighting of each stock to account for changes in share count. Share counts typically change because many companies have large buyback programs that reduce share count. 

This quarter, Apple, Alphabet, Comcast, Exxon Mobil, Visa and Marathon Petroleum will all see their share counts reduced, so funds indexed to the S&P will have to reduce their weighting. 

S&P 500: Companies with share count reduction

(% of share count reduction)

  • Apple        0.5%
  • Alphabet   1.3%
  • Comcast    2.4%
  • Exxon Mobil  1.0%
  • Visa                0.8%
  • Marathon Petroleum  2.6%

Source: S&P Global

Other companies (Nasdaq, EQT, and Amazon among them) will see their share counts increased, so funds indexed to the S&P 500 will have to increase their weighting. 

In addition, three companies are being added to the S&P 500: Uber, Jabil, and Builders FirstSource.  I wrote about the effect that being added to the S&P was having on Uber‘s stock price last week.  

Three other companies are being deleted and will go from the S&P 500 to the S&P SmallCap 600 index: Sealed Air, Alaska Air and SolarEdge Technologies

Nasdaq-100 changes: DoorDash, MongoDB, Splunk are in 

The Nasdaq-100 is rebalanced four times a year; however, the annual reconstitution, where stocks are added or deleted, happens only in December. 

Last Friday, Nasdaq announced that six companies would be added to the Nasdaq-100: CDW Corporation (CDW), Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP), DoorDash (DASH), MongoDB (MDB), Roper Technologies (ROP), and Splunk (SPLK). 

Six others will be deleted: Align Technology (ALGN), eBay (EBAY), Enphase Energy (ENPH), JD.com (JD), Lucid Group (LCID), and Zoom Video Communications (ZM).

Concentration risk: The rules

Under federal law, a diversified investment fund (mutual funds, exchange-traded funds), even if it just mimics an index like the S&P 500, has to satisfy certain diversification requirements. This includes requirements that: 1) no single issuer can account for more than 25% of the total assets of the portfolio, and 2) securities that represent more than 5% of the total assets cannot exceed 50% of the total portfolio. 

Most of the major indexes have similar requirements in their rules. 

For example, there are 11 S&P sector indexes that are the underlying indexes for widely traded ETFs such as the Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK). The rules for these sector indexes are similar to the rules on diversification requirements for investment funds discussed above. For example, the S&P sector indexes say that a single stock cannot exceed 24% of the float-adjusted market capitalization of that sector index and that the sum of the companies with weights greater than 4.8% cannot exceed 50% of the total index weight. 

At the end of last week, three companies had weights greater than 4.8% in the Technology Select Sector (Microsoft at 23.5%, Apple at 22.8%, and Broadcom at 4.9%) and their combined market weight was 51.2%, so if those same prices hold at the close on Friday, there should be a small reduction in Apple and Microsoft in that index. 

S&P will announce if there are changes in the sector indexes after the close on Friday. 

The Nasdaq-100 also uses a “modified” market-capitalization weighting scheme, which can constrain the size of the weighting for any given stock to address overconcentration risk. This rebalancing may reduce the weighting in some of the largest stocks, including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia and Alphabet. 

The move up in these large tech stocks was so rapid in the first half of the year that Nasdaq took the unusual step of initiating a special rebalance in the Nasdaq-100 in July to address the overconcentration of the biggest names. As a result, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon and Tesla all saw their weightings reduced. 

Market concentration is nothing new

Whether the rules around market concentration should be tightened is open for debate, but the issue has been around for decades.

For example, Phil Mackintosh and Robert Jankiewicz from Nasdaq recently noted that the weight of the five largest companies in the S&P 500 was also around 25% back in the 1970s.

Disclosure: Comcast is the corporate parent of NBCUniversal and CNBC.

Source link

#Fridays #Nasdaq100 #rebalance #reflect #concerns #concentration #risk

The top 10 things to watch in the stock market Monday

The top 10 things to watch Monday, Dec. 11

1. U.S. stocks are muted Monday following last week’s push to a new 52-week high in the S&P 500, helped by a stronger-than-expected jobs report Friday. Good economic news is good news for the stock market, for now, with investors looking ahead to Tuesday’s consumer price index report. But we’ll learn what the Federal Reserve makes of the state of the labor market and inflation when the central bank convenes this week for its final meeting of the year.

2. Bank stocks like Club name Wells Fargo became “extraordinary performers” last week, according to Jim Cramer’s Sunday column. “The percentage gains for bank shares and the pretty stock charts, all wondrous, look like they are in their infancy,” he writes.

3. Health insurer Cigna abandons its pursuit to acquire Club holding Humana — a deal that was misguided from the start because it never would have received regulatory approval. Cigna announces a new $10 billion stock buyback. And shares of Humana rally roughly 2% in premarket trading.

4. Occidental Petroleum announces plans to buy privately held CrownRock for $12 billion in cash and stock, while raising its quarterly dividend by 4 cents, to 22 cents per share. Before the deal announcement, Morgan Stanley had upgraded Occidental to overweight from equal weight, with an unchanged price target of $68 a share.

5. More analysts are warming up to energy stocks after last week’s carnage. Citi upgrades Club holding Coterra Energy, along with EQT and Southwestern Energy, to a buy. Coterra is the firm’s top large cap pick, with a $30-per-share price target based on capital-efficiency improvements.

6. Goldman Sachs upgrades Abbvie to buy from neutral, with a $173-per-share price target. The firm cites revenue that has proved more resilient than expected, along with the drug maker’s recent deployment of capital to build out its pipeline. Over the past two weeks, Abbvie has shelled out nearly $20 billion in cash to acquire ImmunoGen and Cerevel Therapeutics.

7. JPMorgan raises its price targets on a handful of cybersecurity stocks, including CrowdStrike (to $269 a share from $230), Club name Palo Alto Networks ($326 from $272) and Zscaler ($212 from $200).

8. Citi upgrades Nike to buy from neutral, while raising its price target on the stock to $135 a share, up from $100. The firm sees margin recovery beginning in the second quarter of next year through 2025, helped by easing freight costs, leaner inventories and a shift to direct-to-consumer.

9. Jefferies upgrades Best Buy to buy from hold, while raising its price target to $89 a share, up from $69. Analysts at the bank think this call won’t take much to work, with expectations low and the stock cheap and yielding a 5% dividend.

10. Citi resumes coverage of Club holding Broadcom with a buy rating and $1,100-a-share price target. The firm sees the chipmaker’s artificial-intelligence business offsetting the cyclical downturn in the semiconductor business, along with strong accretion from its recent acquisition of VMware. We thought the company reported a better quarter last Thursday than what the market gave it credit for. 

(See here for a full list of the stocks at Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.)

What Investing Club members are reading right now

As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.

THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER.  NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.  NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Source link

#top #watch #stock #market #Monday

Jim Cramer’s top 10 things to watch in the stock market Friday

My top 10 things to watch Friday, Dec. 8

1. U.S. stocks are lower in midmorning trading, with S&P 500 futures down 0.3% and on track to break a five-week winning streak. But the Nasdaq Composite, down 0.55% in early trading, looks set to post a sixth-consecutive week of gains. Bond yields tick up slightly, with that of the 10-year Treasury hovering just below 4.2%.

2. Oil prices pare some of their recent losses, climbing by more than 2% Thursday morning. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. oil benchmark, is now back above $70 a barrel but is still down for seven-straight weeks.

3. Club holding Honeywell International reaches a deal to buy Carrier Global‘s security business for $4.95 billion. Carrier will reportedly use the money from Honeywell to accelerate its debt paydown. The companies expect the all-cash transaction to close before the end of the third quarter of 2024.

4. Club holding Broadcom reports mixed fiscal fourth-quarter results, missing on revenue but delivering strong profits. And tailwinds from artificial intelligence and the company’s acquisition of VMware should keep profits growing and more than offset some of the cyclical parts of the semiconductor business.

5. Mizuho raises its price target on Broadcom to $1,000 a share, up from $960, while maintaining a buy rating on the stock. The firm cites the semiconductor firm’s strong guidance, along with its industry-leading margins and free cash flow.

6. India’s Tata Group plans to build one of the country’s biggest iPhone assembly plants, with roughly 20 assembly lines and 50,000 workers, Bloomberg reports. The new factory would help Club holding Apple in its efforts to diversify its supply chain and expand its presence in India.

7. Morgan Stanley raises its price target on Apple to $220 a share, up from $210, while reiterating an overweight rating on the stock. The firm says the macroeconomic backdrop is still a challenge for Apple, but argues that excitement around Edge AI, services, and gross margin strength “reignites the bull case.”

8. Bernstein calls Tesla a “best idea,” outlining the short case for the electric-vehicle maker in 2024. “In our view, Tesla’s key challenge is that it has a demand problem due to its narrow (and expensive) product family of essentially two vehicles,” Bernstein analysts write. The firm has an underperform rating on Tesla stock, with a price target on $150 a share.

9. Mizuho raises its price target on DoorDash to $120 a share, up from $105, while reiterating a buy rating on the stock. The firm expects continued margin expansion, as the food-delivery platform continues to gain market share.

10. Lululemon Athletica delivers strong third-quarter results, while reporting a positive start to the holiday shopping season. The athletic-apparel retailer receives a slew of price-target raises Friday from Wall Street firms — including Barclays, which goes to $530 a share, up from $480, with a buy rating on the stock.

Sign up for my Top 10 Morning Thoughts on the Market email newsletter for free.

(See here for a full list of the stocks at Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.)

What Investing Club members are reading right now

As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.

THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER.  NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.  NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Source link

#Jim #Cramers #top #watch #stock #market #Friday

Here are all the portfolio moves the Club made in this week’s oversold market

People walk by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on February 14, 2023 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty Images

With the stock market deeply oversold this week, we put cash to work by picking stocks across a range of sectors including energy, technology and materials. We also added a former Club chipmaker to our Bullpen and upgraded a premium beer name to a buy rating. Finally, Friday’s market reversal helped us make good on a pledge to trim a once-downtrodden health-care stock.

Source link

#portfolio #moves #Club #weeks #oversold #market

Top Wall Street analysts are bullish on these dividend stocks

Michael Wirth, CEO of Chevron.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

Dividend-paying stocks can help enhance portfolio returns, but investors will need to perform their due diligence as they sift through the names.

Investors should carefully assess these companies by paying attention to various factors, including the dividend growth rate and the ability to consistently generate sufficient cash flows to support payments.

Bearing that in mind, here are five attractive dividend stocks, according to Wall Street’s top experts on TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance.

Public Service Enterprise Group

First on this week’s dividend list is Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), one of the leading electric and gas companies in the U.S. Last month, PEG reaffirmed its full-year earnings guidance, as the company expects growth in regulated operations, the realization of higher average hedged prices and its cost control efforts to offset the impact of higher interest rates and lower pension income.

Earlier this year, PEG increased its quarterly dividend by 5.6% to 57 cents per share (annualized dividend of $2.28), marking the 19th annual increase for the company. PEG’s dividend yield is 3.8%.

RBC Capital analyst Shelby Tucker highlighted that PEG’s subsidiary Public Service Electric and Gas (PSE&G), which is a franchised public utility in New Jersey, enjoys solid cash flows from the nuclear assets in its power generation business.

While the company faces cost and pension expense headwinds this year, the analyst expects a 6% EPS compound annual growth rate through 2027 and 5.5% annual dividend growth.

“We believe the primary attraction to PEG is a strong pipeline of electric and gas investments in New Jersey with low equity dilution risk,” said Tucker.

Tucker reiterated a buy rating on PEG while slightly lowering the price target to $69 from $70. He ranks No. 305 among more than 8,500 analysts tracked by TipRanks. Tucker’s ratings have been profitable 63% of the time, with each rating delivering a return of 9%, on average. (See PEG’s Insider Trading Activity on TipRanks)

Southern Company

Tucker is also bullish on Southern Company (SO), a gas and electric utility giant. Earlier this month, the analyst called SO a “quality utility operating in constructive regulatory environments.” He reiterated a buy rating on the stock and increased the price target to $80 from $78.

With the company’s much-delayed Vogtle nuclear project’s commercial operation date on the horizon, the analyst thinks that investors are finally hopeful of better times ahead. The company expects its Vogtle Unit 4 to be placed in service during late fourth quarter of 2023 or the first quarter of 2024.

The analyst sees the possibility of SO commanding a premium compared to its peers as the year progresses and heads into 2024. Post-Vogtle, Tucker expects the company to accelerate its EPS growth and use the higher cash flows to boost dividends.

Note that in April, Southern announced a 2.9% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.70. This is the 22nd consecutive year in which SO has raised its dividend. SO offers a dividend yield of 4%.  

“We note that SO’s utilities mostly operate in strong economic environments, which should support investment opportunities throughout the decade,” said Tucker. (See Southern Company Stock Chart on TipRanks)

Chevron

Next up is dividend aristocrat Chevron (CVX). In January, the oil and gas giant increased its quarterly dividend by about 6% to $1.51 per share, making 2023 the 36th straight year with a higher dividend payment. CVX’s dividend yield stands at 3.6%.

On Sept. 13, Goldman Sachs hosted roundtable discussions with Chevron’s senior management. Analyst Neil Mehta said that the firm remains bullish on CVX due to its peer-leading capital returns profile, inflecting upstream operations expected in 2025 supported by higher Tengiz/Permian volumes and relative valuation.

The analyst contends that near-term pressures like risks around the Tengiz project are largely reflected in CVX’s valuation. He highlighted management’s constructive view on the upstream business, reaffirming nearly 3% CAGR forecast for production over the next five years.

“The company reiterated its commitment to competitive shareholder returns, which we believe is a core differentiating factor for CVX over the next few years,” added Mehta, who ranks No. 181 among more than 8,500 analysts on TipRanks. 

The analyst currently expects about a 9% capital return yield in 2024/2025, higher than the U.S. energy majors peer average of about 7%. Overall, Mehta reiterated a buy rating on Chevron with a price target of $187.

Mehta’s ratings have been successful 67% of the time, with each rating delivering an average return of 13%. (See Chevron Hedge Fund Trading Activity on TipRanks)

Broadcom

Semiconductor company Broadcom (AVGO) managed to beat the Street’s fiscal third-quarter estimates. However, investors seemed unsatisfied as the quarterly outlook was in line with the analysts’ expectations, unlike that of chip giant Nvidia (NVDA), which crushed estimates on artificial intelligence tailwinds.

Broadcom generated $4.6 billion in free cash flow in the fiscal third quarter of 2023. It paid a cash dividend worth $1.9 billion in the quarter and repurchased 2.4 million shares.

Earlier, AVGO increased its quarterly dividend for fiscal 2023 by 12% to $4.60 per share (annualized $18.40). This hike reflected the company’s twelfth consecutive increase in annual dividends since it initiated dividends in fiscal 2011. It offers a dividend yield of 2.2%

Baird analyst Tristan Gerra recently reiterated a buy rating on AVGO stock while boosting the price target to $1,000 from $900 to reflect solid growth opportunities, mainly in the company’s custom application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) business for AI applications. Gerra also noted that the company’s free cash flow remains strong.

The analyst said that recent channel checks revealed a surge in Broadcom’s custom ASIC business to over 2 million units for next year, which was more than 2.5 times his unit base expectation for 2023. He added that generative AI investments are accounting for nearly all the growth in Broadcom’s semiconductor business, with AI-related revenue now exceeding $1 billion.

Gerra holds the 514th position among more than 8,500 analysts tracked on TipRanks. Moreover, 54% of his ratings have been profitable, with each generating an average return of 8.7%. (See Broadcom’s Financial Statements on TipRanks)

Bristol-Myers Squibb

We end this week’s list with biopharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY). The company repurchased 17 million shares for $1.2 billion and made dividend payments of $2.4 billion in the first six months, ended June 30.

The quarterly dividend of $0.57 per share for 2023 indicates a 5.6% year-over-year increase, marking the 14th consecutive year of dividend hikes. BMY’s dividend yield stands at 3.9%.

Following the company’s Research and Development (R&D) Day held in New York on Sept. 14, Goldman Sachs analyst Chris Shibutani reaffirmed a buy rating on BMY stock with a price target of $81.

At the event, management highlighted how new product launches and the acceleration of research and development productivity would drive future revenue growth, addressing concerns about the Inflation Reduction Act and loss of exclusivity of key drugs.

Shibutani noted that management expressed continued confidence in the 2030 new product launch revenue goal of more than $25 billion (non-risk adjusted), based on currently visible late-stage and already commercializing opportunities.

Commenting on BMY’s capital allocation program, Shibutani said that management’s priority remains business development (BD). “Beyond BD, the company remains committed to growing its dividend and will continue to be opportunistic with share buybacks,” the analyst added.

Shibutani holds the 271th position among more than 8,500 analysts tracked on TipRanks. In all, 44% of his ratings have been profitable, with each generating an average return of 20.5%. (See BMY Options Activity on TipRanks)

Source link

#Top #Wall #Street #analysts #bullish #dividend #stocks