Tag: Markets

Influencer Tori Dunlap is spurring women to maximize their savings and invest in the stock market

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As Tiffany Mane read a personal finance book during her train ride to work, a woman sitting near her acknowledged that she, too, knew of the author. Shortly after, several bystanders began inquiring into its contents.

Mane was reading “Financial Feminist” by Tori Dunlap. The late-2022 release is one piece of the Her First $100K empire, a money-focused education platform targeted at women and other marginalized groups.

That commuting experience highlights the growing community built around Dunlap’s wisdom. And there’s a cyclical effect at play: Women utilize Dunlap’s resources to improve their financial lives, and then share the information with others.

“It really has changed my life,” said Mane, a 35-year-old human rights investigator in the Washington, D.C., area. “I realized there are so many women who don’t know this stuff and who don’t have the resources.”

Finance has historically been viewed as a man’s responsibility, creating a disparity within personal economics. New York Life found the average woman saved less than half a man did in 2022. A 2021 survey from NerdWallet showed women were less likely to be invested in the stock market than their male counterparts.

But Dunlap and her growing fanbase are looking to change that.

Dunlap herself rose to prominence by sharing her journey to save $100,000 by 25 years old. She was inspired to document this goal after finding that many existing resources didn’t adequately take into account the unique experiences of marginalized groups.

In Dunlap’s words, a lot of what was out there felt “bro-y” and out of touch with a young woman’s experience. She said society has largely characterized spending by women as “frivolous,” creating a critical culture for those seeking relatable financial advice.

“People want to feel seen and they want to feel heard,” Dunlap said. “This kind of identity-focused personal finance is 100% necessary, and is the future of personal finance.”

‘Finance is personal’

What began as a side hustle on top of a marketing job has grown to a multi-platform product since Dunlap took the leap to run Her First $100K full time in 2019. Her “Financial Feminist” book sold more than 150,000 copies in its first year in print. Dunlap’s podcast of the same name, which typically has one full and one mini episode out per week, touches on topics such as homeownership and recession planning.

Both the Instagram and TikTok accounts for Her First $100K have amassed at least 2 million followers. A Facebook group named after the book has swelled to more than 100,000 members, where Mane and others converse about issues that impact their money and careers.

In that group, members share financial wins and trade advice on topics like which banks or credit cards to use. Some ask anonymous questions as they venture into sensitive subjects such as debt or the economic reality of divorce. Members have also organized virtual book clubs with others in the group to continue the conversation.

Dunlap said she isn’t surprised that the space has become meaningful to members in a society where women are unfairly criticized for their financial choices. She’s also been proud to see a culture free of judgment or shame as participants offer one another validation and feedback.

Tori Dunlap teaching a money workshop.

Courtesy Karya Schanilec

Fans said they appreciate Dunlap’s two-fold approach to financial education. She offers actionable steps to improve their economic lives, they say, while also being cognizant of systematic barriers that make it harder for women and other marginalized groups to build wealth.

Specialized advice can benefit women, as research shows they have less confidence in topics tied to money than men, according to Annamaria Lusardi, senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

These niche resources would better resonate because they can touch on topics or examples that are disproportionately relevant to the specific population, said Lusardi, who is also founder of the Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center. For women, she said one area of emphasis could be on the economics of having or raising children.

“Finance is personal,” Lusardi said. “As a woman, I feel like I have different needs, have different circumstances. And so I want things more targeted to me.”

A ‘sisterhood’

For those who have engaged with Dunlap’s work and the virtual community, they’ve seen how the advice has changed their financial lives – and now feel inspired to pay it forward. In the words of Mane, the Facebook group feels like being part of a “sisterhood.”

Through Dunlap’s advice and subsequent research, Mane has implemented a plan for budgeting and opened a high-yield savings account. She also opened a Roth individual retirement account, which grows free of taxes, and she is beginning Dunlap’s educational program focused on investing called Stock Market School.

As a result, Mane, a child of immigrants who grew up below the poverty line, said she’s never felt so economically stable. Her upcoming wedding will be paid for in cash, a financial milestone she never thought would be possible.

Mane has gifted the book to several women in her life. The human rights investigator has a copy in her office for curious colleagues, often explaining what it is and has meant to her. Beyond the Facebook group, she’s started passing down tidbits of wisdom to her nieces.

Thousands of miles away, Tierney Barker is seeing parallel effects. The 32-year-old Canadian first found Her First $100K’s resources on budget tracking and debt consolidation.

One of the travel agent’s first big changes was implementing a savings “bucket” strategy — in which money is earmarked for living expenses, goals and fun. Barker has also been finding time to review her finances on a regular basis. Similar to Mane, she opened the Canadian equivalent of a high-yield savings account.

After seeing the impact on her own life, Barker recommended the book to others and requested its addition to her local library in British Columbia. Barker also found herself better equipped to discuss money with other women, something that once felt like a taboo topic that should be mostly reserved for men.

“It’s been easier to talk about it and to be open about it,” Barker said, adding that having the resources is “empowering.”

While Dunlap has been proud to see individuals benefiting from this advice and sharing it with others, she thinks that the work isn’t done.

She said the systematic barriers that disproportionately hurt women and minorities in the business world remain. After the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, Dunlap said it’s more important than ever to push for social equity — including through economics and finance.

“I don’t believe we have any sort of equality for any marginalized group until we have financial equality,” she said. “A financial education is our best form of protest as women.”

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Powell reinforces position that the Fed is not ready to start cutting interest rates

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday reiterated that he expects interest rates to start coming down this year, but is not ready yet to say when.

In prepared remarks for congressionally mandated appearances on Capitol Hill Wednesday and Thursday, Powell said policymakers remain attentive to the risks that inflation poses and don’t want to ease up too quickly.

“In considering any adjustments to the target range for the policy rate, we will carefully assess the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” he said. “The Committee does not expect that it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”

Those remarks were taken verbatim from the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement following its most recent meeting, which concluded Jan. 31.

During the question-and-answer session with House Financial Services Committee members, Powell said he needs “see a little bit more data” before moving on rates.

“We think because of the strength in the economy and the strength in the labor market and the progress we’ve made, we can approach that step carefully and thoughtfully and with greater confidence,” he said. “When we reach that confidence, the expectation is we will do so sometime this year. We can then begin dialing back that restriction on our policy.”

Stocks posted gains as Powell spoke, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 250 points heading into midday. Treasurys yields mostly moved lower as the benchmark 10-year note was off about 0.3 percentage point to 4.11%.

Rates likely at peak

In total, the speech broke no new ground on monetary policy or the Fed’s economic outlook. However, the comments indicated that officials remain concerned about not losing the progress made against inflation and will make decisions based on incoming data rather than a preset course.

“We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year,” Powell said in the comments. “But the economic outlook is uncertain, and ongoing progress toward our 2 percent inflation objective is not assured.”

He noted again that lowering rates too quickly risks losing the battle against inflation and likely having to raise rates further, while waiting too long poses danger to economic growth.

Markets had been widely expecting the Fed to ease up aggressively following 11 interest rate hikes totaling 5.25 percentage points that spanned March 2022 to July 2023.

In recent weeks, though, those expectations have changed following multiple cautionary statements from Fed officials. The January meeting helped cement the Fed’s cautious approach, with the statement explicitly saying rate cuts aren’t coming yet despite the market’s outlook.

As things stand, futures market pricing points to the first cut coming in June, part of four reductions this year totaling a full percentage point. That’s slightly more aggressive than the Fed’s outlook in December for three cuts.

Inflation easing

Despite the resistance to move forward on cuts, Powell noted the movement the Fed has made toward its goal of 2% inflation without tipping over the labor market and broader economy.

“The economy has made considerable progress toward these objectives over the past year,” Powell said. He noted that inflation has “eased substantially” as “the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals have been moving into better balance.”

Inflation as judged by the Fed’s preferred gauge is currently running at a 2.4% annual rate — 2.8% when stripping out food and energy in the core reading that the Fed prefers to focus on. The numbers reflect “a notable slowing from 2022 that was widespread across both goods and services prices.”

“Longer-term inflation expectations appear to have remained well anchored, as reflected by a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets,” he added.

Powell is likely to face a variety of questions during his two-day visit to Capitol Hill, which started with an appearance Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee and concludes Thursday before the Senate Banking Committee.

Questioning largely centered around Powell’s views on inflation and rates.

Republicans on the committee also grilled Powell on the so-called Basel III Endgame revisions to bank capital requirements. Powell said he is part of a group on the Board of Governors that has “real concerns, very specific concerns” about the proposals and said the withdrawal of the plan “is a live option.” Some of the earlier market gains Wednesday faded following reports that New York Community Bank is looking to raise equity capital, raising fresh concerns about the state of midsize U.S. banks.

Though the Fed tries to stay out of politics, the presidential election year poses particular challenges.

Former President Donald Trump, the likely Republican nominee, was a fierce critic of Powell and his colleagues while in office. Some congressional Democrats, led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, have called on the Fed to reduce rates as pressure builds on lower-income families to make ends meet.

Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass., joined the Democrats in calling for lower rates. During his term, Democrats frequently criticized Trump for trying to cajole the Fed into cutting.

“Housing inflation and housing affordability [is] the No. 1 issue I’m hearing about from my constituents,” Pressley said. “Families in my district and throughout this country need relief now. I truly hope the Fed will listen to them and cut interest rates.”

Correction: Ayanna Pressley is a Democratic representative from Massachusetts. An earlier version misidentified the state.

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Pimco’s Sonali Pier lets her ‘cautious contrarianism’ speak for itself: The bets she’s making now

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Sonali Pier is a portfolio manager with Pimco

Pimco’s Sonali Pier strives for outperformance.

The youngest of three and the daughter of Indian immigrants, Pier set her sights on Wall Street after graduating from Princeton University in 2003. She began her career at JPMorgan as a credit trader, a field that doesn’t have a lot of women.

“In the ladies room, I don’t bump into a lot of people,” said Pier, who moved from New York to California in 2013 to join Pimco.

Fortunately, she’s seen a lot of changes over the years. There has not only been some progress for women entering the financial business, but the culture has also changed since the financial crisis to become more inclusive, she said. Plus, it’s an industry where there is clear evidence of performance, she added.

“There’s accountability,” she said, in a recent interview. “Therefore, the gender role starts to break down a little bit. With responsibility and accountability and a number to your name, it’s very clear what your contributions are.”

Pier has risen through the ranks since joining Pimco and is now a portfolio manager within the firm’s multi-sector credit business. The 42-year-old mother of two credits mentors for helping her along the way, as well as her husband for supporting her and moving to California sight unseen. Her father also raised her to value education and hard work, Pier said.

“He was the quintessential example of the American dream,” she said. “Being able to see his hard work and a lot of progress meant that I never thought otherwise, that hard work wouldn’t lead to progress.”

Pier’s work has not gone unnoticed. Morningstar crowned her the winner of the 2021 U.S. Morningstar Award for Investing Excellence in the Rising Talent category.

“Pier’s cautious contrarianism and rising influence at one of the industry’s premier and most internally competitive fixed-income asset-management firms stands out,” Morningstar said at the time.

Putting her investment strategy to work

Pier is the lead manager on Pimco’s Diversified Income Fund, which was among the top performers in its class — ranking in the 13th percentile on a total return basis in 2023, according to Morningstar. It has a 30-day SEC yield of 5.91%, as of Jan. 31.

“We’re really broadly canvassing the global landscape, and then looking for where there’s the best opportunities,” Pier said. “It’s getting the interest rate sensitivity from investment grade, high-quality parts of EM [emerging markets], and the equity-like sensitivity from high yield and the low-quality parts of EM.”

The fund also invests in securitized assets, with about 23% of the portfolio is allocated to the sector, as of Jan. 31.

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Pimco Income Diversified Fund

While the fund has a benchmark, the Bloomberg Global Credit Hedged USD Index, it is “benchmark aware” and doesn’t “hug it,” Pier said.

Morningstar has called the fund a “standout.”

“Pimco Diversified Income’s still ample staffing, deep analytical resources, and proven approach make it a top choice for higher-yielding credit exposure,” Morningstar senior analyst Mike Mulach wrote in January.

It hasn’t always been smooth sailing. The fund has more international holdings and a more credit-risk-heavy profile than its peers, which has sometimes “knocked the portfolio off course,” like it did in 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Mulach said. Still, he likes it over the long term.

So far this year, the fund is relatively flat on a total return basis.

In addition to also leading PDIIX, Pier is also a manager on a number of other funds, including the PIMCO Multisector Bond Active ETF (PYLD), which was launched in June 2023. It currently has a 30-day SEC yield of 5.12%, as of Tuesday, and an adjusted expense ratio of 0.55%.

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Multisector Bond Active Exchange-Traded Fund performance since its June 21, 2023 inception.

“It’s maximizing for yield, while looking for capital appreciation, and obviously, with the same Pimco principles of wanting to keep up on the upside, but manage that downside risk,” she said.

Where Pier is bullish

Right now, Pier prefers developed markets over emerging markets and the U.S. over Europe.

Within investment-grade corporate, she likes financials over non-financials. Credit spreads have widened in financials over the concerns about regional banks, she said.

“Maybe some of it’s warranted for the fact that they need to issue significant supply year after year, but we think that the metrics of, say, the big six … look quite resilient on a relative basis,” Pier said.

Within corporate credit, the team looks at the “full flexibility of the toolkit,” she noted. That could include derivatives and cash bonds, she added.

“Are we looking at the euro bond or the dollar bond in the same structure? The front end or the long end? Cash versus derivatives? However we can most efficiently express our view and trade that will lead to the best total return,” Pier said.

She also likes securitized assets, which she said can be a lot more resilient during a downturn. One of Pier’s preferences is the legacy non-agency mortgage-backed securities market.

“We have the data on how long they’ve been in the home, how much home equity has been built, what their mortgage rate is, what’s been their alacrity to pay, so we can see — is there any delinquency?” she said. “We have a lot of data there and a lot of comfort around that asset class.”

Agency mortgage-backed securities are also attractive and could be a good substitution for single-A rated corporate debt, she said.

About 60% of homeowners have a mortgage rate below 4%, according to a Redfin analysis of data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s National Mortgage Database.

“It’s more liquid, implicitly guaranteed by the government and it’s a pretty similar spread,” she said.

Pier finds the work exciting and encourages women to join her in the business.

“Anyone can excel who wants to really put in the work and wants to bet on themselves,” she said.

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February was a great month for Wall Street. These were our 5 best-performing stocks

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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., February 23, 2024. 

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

February was a strong month for stocks and the Club’s portfolio.

The advance came as investors parsed through fourth-quarter earnings results and fresh economic data, searching for clues about when the Federal Reserve will finally cut interest rates. The Nasdaq Composite led the march higher in February, gaining 6.1% and finishing the month at its first record close since November 2021. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both hit a series of all-time highs throughout the month, climbing 2.2% and 5.2%, respectively.

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Here’s why investors should stop worrying so much about concentration risk in the market

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After a brief respite, the Magnificent 7 stocks have again hit new highs on the heels of Nvidia’s blowout earnings: They now again comprise about 30% of the S&P 500. Throw in the remainder of the top 10 stocks (Berkshire Hathaway, Lilly, and Broadcom) and the concentration rises to about 33% of the S&P 500.

At the recent ETF conference in Miami Beach, Registered investment advisors were eager for advice on how they might get their clients to stop pestering them to invest more money in the Magnificent 7.

There was much handwringing about the dangers of over-concentration. RIAs worried that just like they get blamed for not being in the Mag 7 rally with sufficient zest, they will get clobbered by clients blaming them when (and if) they bubble bursts.

The hope of the RIAs was the market rally would broaden out.

Fat chance. That was two weeks ago, during a brief lull in the relentless march of Nvidia and the Magnificent 7.

But Nvidia’s earnings have killed the last hope of the “diversify” crowd. The numbers speak for themselves:

Major Sectors YTD

Van Eck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) up 20% (25% Nvidia!)

Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) up 14% (14% Nvidia!)

S&P 500 up 5% (4% Nvidia!)

S&P 500 Equal-Weight ETF (RSP) up 2%

Is over-concentration really a risk?

On the surface, it sure seems that way. The comparisons are getting silly.

At the ETF conference, Dimensional Fund Advisors noted that the Magnificent 7 stocks were now just as large as the entire combined stock markets of Japan, UK, Canada, France, Hong Kong/China combined:

Magnificent 7 vs. The World

(MSCI All Country World Index weighting)

Entire U.S. stock market: 63%

Japan, UK, Canada, France, Hong Kong/China combined: 17.5%

Magnificent 7: 17%

Source: Dimensional Funds

That seems crazy, no? And yet, it’s not at all unusual to see concentration like this in prior periods. And it’s mostly around tech.

High concentration levels have happened often

It’s true concentration has risen in the last 10 years. As late as 2015, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 were only 17.8% of the index, according to a 2023 study by FS Investments.

But that was a low point. Most of the time, the concentration of the top 10 stocks has been far higher.

For example, in the mid-1960s the concentration of the top 10 was over 40% of the S&P 500.

The domination of the so-called “Nifty 50” stocks (which included IBM, American Express, General Electric, Polaroid and Xerox) in the 1960s and early 1970s regularly kept the concentration of the top 10 stocks over 30%.

It slowly declined over the next 20 years, settling between roughly 17% and 20% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 between the 1980s and the late 1990s.

It shot up again during the dotcom and Internet boom, which again pushed the concentration of the top 10 to over 25% in the late 1990s.

It’s not just a U.S. issue

Other countries like China, France, and Germany have far higher concentration in the top 10 names than the U.S.

The broadest China ETF, the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) has over 600 stocks. But the top 10 stocks, which include Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu, comprise 42% of the entire ETF.

Same with Germany: The iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG) has 57% of its weighting in 10 stocks, with 22% in just two stocks, SAP and Siemens.

Same with the United Kingdom: The iShares MSCI UK (EWU) has 50% in the top 10 holdings, with nearly a quarter in three stocks, Shell, AstraZeneca, and HSBC.

Same with France: The iShares MSCI France (EWQ) has 57% in the top 10 with just two companies — LVMH and Total — comprising 20% of the weighting.

And same with Canada: The iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index (XIU) has 45% in the top 10 holdings.

Concentration of top 10 stocks in country indexes

China 42%

Germany 57%

UK: 50%

France: 57%

Canada 45%

U.S.: 33%

Concentration has helped U.S. and index investors

You may worry about it, but concentration has been a boon to index investors and to U.S. investors in general.

We all know the majority of the gains in the last year can be attributed to a small number of mostly tech stocks. Investors who own the S&P 500 don’t have to pick those winners; they just go along for the ride.

Second, U.S. stocks are global market leaders, and when a small group becomes market leaders it almost always means the U.S. stock market outperforms the world.

That is exactly what has happened. The U.S. stock market, which was roughly 40% of the global market capitalization a short while ago, is now roughly 50% of global market capitalization.

U.S. investors in broadly diversified indexes have been richly rewarded for their “concentration risk.”

Sit back and relax a little

Here’s what it all means: Concentration is a characteristic of market cap-weighted indexes. These indexes reward the winners and penalize the losers.

The reason the Magnificent 7 has done so well is that these are the most profitable companies in the world. They are at the cutting edge of transformative technologies, particularly AI.

That’s the primary reason they are the leaders. There are also secondary reasons: globalization, which made supply chains more efficient, and the long decline in interest rates (which has come to an end).

But the bottom line is that in an era where growth has been hard to come by, these companies have plenty of it. And investors are willing to pay up.

What about comparisons to the dot-com era? The stocks at the top contribute a far greater amount to the earnings of the S&P 500 than they did in the 1990s. And the cash flow is much higher.

There’s already been a correction: It was called 2022

At the ETF conference, the big worry among the RIAs was, “But what if there’s a big correction in the Magnificent 7?”

Uh, sorry, but they already corrected. Nvidia went from roughly $292 at the start of 2022 to $112 by October of that year, a drop of 62%. The other Magnificent 7 stocks all had big drops then.

Of course they could all correct again. But the AI revolution is very real.

Nvidia’s sales tripled. Profits were up 800%. That is a very real revolution.

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Fed officials expressed caution about lowering rates too quickly at last meeting, minutes show

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WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve officials indicated at their last meeting that they were in no hurry to cut interest rates and expressed both optimism and caution on inflation, according to minutes from the session released Wednesday.

The discussion came as policymakers not only decided to leave their key overnight borrowing rate unchanged but also altered the post-meeting statement to indicate that no cuts would be coming until the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee held “greater confidence” that inflation was receding.

“Most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy and emphasized the importance of carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation is moving down sustainably to 2 percent,” the minutes stated.

The meeting summary did indicate a general sense of optimism that the Fed’s policy moves had succeeded in lowering the rate of inflation, which in mid-2022 hit its highest level in more than 40 years.

However, officials noted that they wanted to see more before starting to ease policy, while saying that rate hikes are likely over.

“In discussing the policy outlook, participants judged that the policy rate was likely at its peak for this tightening cycle,” the minutes stated. But, “Participants generally noted that they did not expect it would be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until they had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”

Before the meeting, a string of reports showed that inflation, while still elevated, was moving back toward the Fed’s 2% target. While the minutes assessed the “solid progress” being made, the committee viewed some of that progress as “idiosyncratic” and possibly due to factors that won’t last.

Consequently, members said they will “carefully assess” incoming data to judge where inflation is heading over the longer term. Officials noted both upside and downside risks and worried about lowering rates too quickly.

Questions over how quickly to move

“Participants highlighted the uncertainty associated with how long a restrictive monetary policy stance would need to be maintained,” the summary said.

Officials “remained concerned that elevated inflation continued to harm households, especially those with limited means to absorb higher prices,” the minutes said. “While the inflation data had indicated significant disinflation in the second half of last year, participants observed that they would be carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation was moving down sustainably toward 2 percent.”

The minutes reflected an internal debate over how quickly the Fed will want to move considering the uncertainty about the outlook.

Since the Jan. 30-31 meeting, the cautionary approach has borne out as separate readings on consumer and producer prices showed inflation running hotter than expected and still well ahead of the Fed’s 2% 12-month target.

Multiple officials in recent weeks have indicated a patient approach toward loosening monetary policy. A stable economy, which grew at a 2.5% annualized pace in 2023, has encouraged FOMC members that the succession of 11 interest rate hikes implemented in 2022 and 2023 have not substantially hampered growth.

To the contrary, the U.S. labor market has continued to expand at a brisk pace, adding 353,000 nonfarm payroll positions in January. First-quarter economic data thus far is pointing to GDP growth of 2.9%, according to the Atlanta Fed.

Along with the discussion on rates, members also brought up the bond holdings on the Fed’s balance sheet. Since June 2022, the central bank has allowed more than $1.3 trillion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities to roll off rather than reinvesting proceeds as usual.

‘Ample level of reserves’

The minutes indicated that a more in-depth discussion will take place at the March meeting. Policymakers also indicated at the January meeting that they are likely to take a go-slow approach on a process nicknamed “quantitative tightening.” The pertinent question is how high reserve holdings will need to be to satisfy banks’ needs. The Fed characterizes the current level as “ample.”

“Some participants remarked that, given the uncertainty surrounding estimates of the ample level of reserves, slowing the pace of runoff could help smooth the transition to that level of reserves or could allow the Committee to continue balance sheet runoff for longer,” the minutes said. “In addition, a few participants noted that the process of balance sheet runoff could continue for some time even after the Committee begins to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate.”

Fed officials consider current policy to be restrictive, so the big question going forward will be how much it will need to be relaxed both to support growth and control inflation.

There is some concern that growth continues to be too fast.

The consumer price index rose 3.1% on a 12-month basis in January – 3.9% when excluding food and energy, the latter of which posted a big decline during the month. So-called sticky CPI, which weighs toward housing and other prices that don’t fluctuate as much, rose 4.6%, according to the Atlanta Fed. Producer prices increased 0.3% on a monthly basis, well above Wall Street expectations.

In an interview on CBS’ “60 Minutes” that aired just a few days after the FOMC meeting, Chair Jerome Powell said, “With the economy strong like that, we feel like we can approach the question of when to begin to reduce interest rates carefully.” He added that he is looking for “more evidence that inflation is moving sustainably down to 2%.”

Markets have since had to recalibrate their expectations for rate cuts.

Where traders in the fed funds futures market had been pricing in a near lock for a March cut, that has been pushed out to June. The expected level of cuts for the full year had been reduced to four from six. FOMC officials in December projected three.

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2 out of 5 industrial stocks are at record highs. Here’s our post-earnings outlook on all of them

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Eaton Corporation signage at the NYSE

Source: NYSE

Earnings season was not perfect for our industrial-focused portfolio companies, but we’re feeling pretty good about their prospects for the rest of the year.

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These oil companies could be the next takeover targets in Permian Basin after Diamondback deal

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Bitcoin, AI and Magnificent 7: The emerging ETF trends as industry gathers for big conference

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Over two thousand attendees are descending on the Fontainebleau Hotel in Miami Beach for the annual Exchange ETF conference. To entice participants, the organizers rented out the entire LIV Nightclub Miami at the hotel for a Super Bowl party Sunday night.

While much of the conference is an excuse to party among the ETF industry reps and the Registered Investment Advisors  (RIAs) that are the main attendees, the industry needs a lot of advice.

The Good news: still lots of money coming in, but the industry is maturing

The ETF juggernaut continues to rake in money, now with north of $8 trillion in assets under management.  Indexing/passive investing, the main impetus behind ETFs 30 years ago, continues to bring in new adherents as smarter investors, including the younger ones that have begun investing since the pandemic, come to understand the difficulty of outperforming the market.

The bad news is much of the easy money has already been made as the industry is now reaching middle aged. Just about every type of index fund that can be thought of is already in existence. 

To grow, the ETF industry has to expand the offerings of active management and devise new ways to entice investors.  

Actively managed strategies did well in 2023, accounting for about a quarter of all inflows.  Covered call strategies like the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI), which offered protection during a downturn, raked in money.  But with the broad markets hitting new highs, it’s not clear if investors will continue to pour money into covered call strategies that, by definition, underperform in rising markets.

Fortunately, the industry has proven very skilled at capturing whatever investing zeitgeist is in the air.  That can range from the silly (pot ETFs when there was no real pot industry) to ideas that have had some real staying power.

Six or seven years ago, it was thematic tech ETFs like cybersecurity or electric vehicles that pulled in investors. 

The big topics in 2024:  Bitcoin, AI, Magnificent 7 alternatives

In 2024, the industry is betting that the new crop of bitcoin ETFs will pull in billions.  Bitcoin for grandma?  We’ll see.

Besides bitcoin, the big topics here in Miami Beach are 1) A.I/ and what it’s going to do for financial advisors and investors, and 2) how to get clients to think about equity allocation beyond the Magnificent 7.

Notably absent is China investing.

Bitcoin for grandma?  Financial advisors are divided on whether to jump in

Ten spot bitcoin ETFs have successfully launched.  The heads of three of those, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, Steve Kurz, global head of asset management at Galaxy and David LaValle, global head of ETFs at Grayscale, will lead a panel offering advice to financial advisors, who seem divided on how to proceed.

Ric Edelman, the founder of Edelman Financial Engines, the #1 RIA in the country and currently the head of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals (DACFP), will also be present. 

Edelman has long been a bitcoin bull. He recently estimates bitcoin’s price will reach $150,000 within two years (about three times its current price), and has estimated that Independent RIAs, who collectively manage $8 trillion, could invest 2.5% of their assets under management in crypto in the next two to three years, which would translate into over $154 billion.

Inflows into bitcoin ETFs to date have been modest, but bitcoin ETFs are being viewed by some advisors as the first true bridge between traditional finance and the crypto community. 

But many advisors are torn about recommending them, not just because of the large number of competing products, but because of the legal minefields that still exist around bitcoin, specifically around SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s warning that any financial advisor recommending bitcoin would have to be mindful of “suitability” requirements for clients.

For many, those suitability requirements, along with the high volatility, continuing charges of manipulation, and the doubt about bitcoin as a true asset class will be enough to keep them away. 

The bitcoin ecosystem is in going into overdrive to convince the RIA community otherwise.

 Artificial intelligence: What can it do for the investing community?

Thematic tech investing (cybersecurity, robotics, cloud computing, electric vehicles, social media, etc.) has waxed and waned in the last decade, but there is no doubt Artificial Intelligence ETFs (IRBT, ROBT, BOTZ)  has recaptured some interest.  The problem is defining what an AI investment looks like and which companies are exposed to AI.

But the impact is already being felt by the financial advisory community.

Jason Pereira, senior partner & financial Planner, Woodgate Financial, is speaking on how financial advisors are using artificial intelligence.  There are amazing AI tools that financial advisors can now use.  Pereira describes how it is now possible to generate financial podcasts with just snippets of your own voice.  Just plug in a text, and it can generate a whole podcast without ever saying the actual words.  How to generate text?  In theory, you could go to Chat GPT and say, for example, “Write 500 words about current issues in 401(k)s,” and rewrite it slightly for a specific audience.

In a world where a million people can now generate a podcast on financial advice, how do you maintain value?  Much of the lower skilled tasks (data analysis) will quickly become commodified, but Pereira believes a very big difference will quickly emerge between volume and quality.

Equity Allocation Beyond the Magnificent Seven

Financial advisors are beset by clients urging them to throw money at the Magnificent 7.  Roundhill’s new Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) has pulled in big money in the last few months, now north of $100 million in assets under management.

Since the end of last year, there have been enormous inflows into technology ETFs (Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA), and modest inflows into communications (Meta and Alphabet) and consumer discretionary (Amazon).  Most everything else has languished, with particular outflows in energy, health care, and materials. 

Advisors are eager for advice on how to talk to clients about the concentration risks involved in investing solely in big-cap tech and how to allocate for the long haul. 

Alex Zweber, managing director investment strategy at Parametric and Eric Veiel, head of global investments and CIO at T. Rowe Price are leading a panel on alternative approaches that have had some success recently, including ETFs that invest in option overlays, but also on quality and momentum investing in general, which overlaps but is broader than simply investing in the Magnificent 7.

Stop talking about numbers and returns and start offering “human-centric” advice

Talk to any financial advisor for more than a few minutes, and they will likely tell you how difficult it is dealing with some clients who are convinced they should put all their money into NVIDIA, or Bolivian tin mines, or who have investing ADHD and want to throw all their money in one investment one day, then pull it out the next.

Brian Portnoy and Neil Bage, co-founders of Shaping Wealth, are leading one of the early panels on how financial advisors can move away from an emphasis on numbers and more toward engaging with their clients on a more personal and emotional level.

Sounds touchy-feely, but competition for clients has become intense, and there is a new field emerging on how to provide financial advice that is less centered on numbers (assets under management, fees, quarterly statements), and more centered on developing the investor’s understanding of behavioral finance and emotional intelligence. 

Under this style of investment advice, often called “human-centric” or “human-first” advice, more time may be spent discussing behavioral biases that lead to investing mistakes than on stock market minutiae. This may help the clients develop behaviors that, for example, are better suited to longer term investing (less trading, less market timing).  

Advocates of this approach believe this is a much better way to engage and keep clients for the long term.

What’s missing? China

For years, a panel on international investing, and specifically emerging markets/China investing, was a staple at ETF conferences.

Not anymore.  Notably absent is any discussion of international investing, but particularly China, where political risk is now perceived to be so high that investors are fleeing China and China ETFs. 

Indeed, investing “ex-China” is a bit of a thing.

The iShares Emerging Markets ex-China ETF (EMXC) launched with little fanfare in 2017 and had almost no assets under management for several years.  That changed in late 2022, when China ETFs began a long slow descent, and inflows exploded into EMXC from investors who still wanted emerging market exposure, just not to China.

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China’s VC playbook is undergoing a sea change as U.S. IPO exits get tougher

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A bank employee count China’s renminbi (RMB) or yuan notes next to U.S. dollar notes at a Kasikornbank in Bangkok, Thailand, January 26, 2023.

Athit Perawongmetha | Reuters

BEIJING — Venture capitalists in China that once rose to fame with giant U.S. IPOs of consumer companies are under pressure to drastically change their strategy.

The urgency to adapt their playbook to a newer environment has increased in the last few years with stricter regulations in China as well as the U.S., tensions between the two countries and slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

Here are the three shifts that are underway:

1. From U.S. dollars to Chinese yuan

The business model for well-known venture capital funds in China such as Sequoia and Hillhouse typically involved raising dollars from university endowments, pension funds and other sources in the U.S. — known in the industry as limited partners.

That money then went into startups in China, which eventually sought initial public offerings in the U.S., generating returns for investors.

Now many of those limited partners have paused investing in China, as Washington increases its scrutiny of U.S. money backing advanced Chinese tech and it gets harder for Chinese companies to list in the U.S. A slowdown in the Asian country has further dampened investor sentiment.

That means venture capitalists in China need to look to alternative sources, such as the Middle East, or, increasingly, funds tied to local government coffers. The shift toward domestic channels also means a change in currency.

In 2023, the total venture capital funds raised in China dropped to their lowest since 2015, with the share of U.S. dollars falling to 5.3% from 8.4% in the prior year, according to Xiniu Data, an industry research firm.

That’s far less than in the previous years — the share of U.S. dollars in total VC funds raised was around 15% for the years 2018 to 2021, the data showed. The remaining share was in Chinese yuan.

Currently, many USD funds are shifting their focus to government-backed hard tech companies, which typically aim for A share exits rather than U.S. listings

For foreign investors, high U.S. interest rates and the relative attractiveness of markets such as India and Japan also factor into decisions around whether to invest in China.

“VCs have definitely changed their view on Greater China from a couple years ago,” Kyle Stanford, lead VC analyst at Pitchbook, said in an email.

“Greater China private markets still have a lot of capital available, whether it be from local funds, or from areas such as the Middle East, but in general the view on China growth and VC returns has changed,” he said.

2. China investments, China exits

Washington and Beijing in 2022 resolved a long-standing audit dispute that reduced the risk of Chinese companies having to delist from U.S. stock exchanges.

But following the fallout over Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi’s U.S. listing in the summer of 2021, the two countries have increased scrutiny of China-based companies wanting to go public in New York.

Beijing now requires companies with large amounts of user data — essentially any internet-based consumer-facing business in China — to receive approval from the cybersecurity regulator, among other measures, before they can list in Hong Kong or the U.S.

Washington has also tightened restrictions on American money going into high-tech Chinese companies. A few large VCs have separated their China operations from those in the U.S. under new names. Last year, Sequoia most famously rebranded in China as HongShan.

“USD funds in China can still invest in non-sensitive sectors for A share IPOs, but have the challenge of local enterprise preferring capital from RMB [Chinese yuan] funds,” said Liao Ming, founding partner of Beijing-based Prospect Avenue Capital, which has focused on U.S. dollar funds.

Stocks listed in the mainland Chinese market are known as A shares.

“The trend is shifting towards investing in parallel entity overseas assets, marking a strategic move ‘from long China to long Chinese,” he said.

“With U.S. IPOs no longer being a viable exit strategy for China assets, investors should target local exits in their respective capital markets—in other words, China exits for China assets, and U.S. exits for overseas assets,” Liao said.

Read more about China from CNBC Pro

Only a handful of China-based companies – and barely any large ones – have listed in the U.S. since Didi’s IPO. The company went public on the New York Stock Exchange in the summer of 2021, despite reported regulatory concerns.

Beijing promptly ordered an investigation that forced Didi to temporarily suspend new user registrations and app downloads. The company delisted later that year.

The probe, which has since ended, came alongside Beijing’s crackdown on alleged monopolistic practices by internet tech companies such as Alibaba. The clampdown also covered after-school tutoring, minors’ access to video games and real estate developers’ high reliance on debt for growth.

3. VC-government alignment, larger deals

Instead of consumer-facing sectors, Chinese authorities have emphasized support for industrial development, such as high-end manufacturing and renewable energy.

“Currently, many USD funds are shifting their focus to government-backed hard tech companies, which typically aim for A share exits rather than U.S. listings,” Liao said, noting that it aligns with Beijing’s preferences as well.

These companies include developers of new materials for renewable energy and factory automation components.

In 2023, the 20 largest VC deals for China-headquartered companies were mostly in manufacturing and included no e-commerce business, according to PitchBook data. In pre-pandemic 2019, the top deals included a few online shopping or internet-based consumer product companies, and some electric car start-ups.

The change is even more stark when compared with the boom around the time online shopping giant Alibaba went public in 2014. The 20 largest VC deals for China-headquartered companies in 2013 were predominantly in e-commerce and software services, according to PitchBook data.

… the venture capital scene has become even more state-concentrated and focused on government priorities.

Camille Boullenois

Rhodium Group

The shift away from internet apps towards hard tech requires more capital.

The median deal size in 2013 among those 20 largest China VC transactions was $80 million, according to CNBC calculations based off PitchBook data.

That’s far smaller than the median deal size of $280 million in 2019, and a fraction of the median of $804 million per transaction in 2023 for the same category of investments, the analysis showed.

Many of those deals were led by local government-backed funds or state-owned companies, in contrast to a decade earlier when VC names such as GGV Capital and internet tech companies were more prominent investors, according to the data.

“In the past 20 years, China and finance developed very quickly, and in the past ten years private [capital] funds grew very quickly, meaning just investing in any industry would [generate] returns,” Yang Luxia, partner and general manager at Heying Capital, said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. She has been focused on yuan funds, while looking to raise capital from overseas.

Yang doesn’t expect the same pace of growth going forward, and said she is even taking a “conservative” approach to new energy. The technology changes quickly, making it hard to select winners, she said, while companies now need to consider buyouts and other alternatives to IPOs.

Then there’s the question of China’s growth itself, especially as state-linked funds and policies play a larger role in tech investment.

“In 2022, [private equity and venture capital] investment in China was cut in half, and it fell again in 2023. Private and foreign actors were the first to withdraw, so the venture capital scene has become even more state-concentrated and focused on government priorities,” said Camille Boullenois, associate director, Rhodium Group.

The risk is that science and technology becomes “more state-directed and aligned with government’s priorities,” she said. “That could be effective in the short term, but is unlikely to encourage a thriving innovation environment in the long term.”

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