Nike sinks 12% after it slashes sales outlook, unveils $2 billion in cost cuts

Nike on Thursday unveiled plans to cut costs by about $2 billion over the next three years as it lowered its sales outlook.

The stock fell about 12% in premarket trading Friday. Nike shares were up 4.7% so far this year through Thursday’s close, lagging far behind the S&P 500’s gains for the year. Retailer Foot Locker, which has leaned heavily on Nike products, fell about 8% in extended trading.

Nike now expects full-year reported revenue to grow approximately 1%, compared to a prior outlook of up mid-single digits. In the current quarter, which includes the second half of the holiday shopping season, Nike expects reported revenue to be slightly negative as it laps tough prior year comparisons, and sales to be up low single digits in the fourth quarter.

“Last quarter as I provided guidance, I highlighted a number of risks in our operating environment, including the effects of a stronger U.S. dollar on foreign currency translation, consumer demand over the holiday season and our second half wholesale order books. Looking forward, the impact of these risks is becoming clearer,” finance chief Matthew Friend said on a call with analysts.

“This new outlook reflects increased macro headwinds, particularly in Greater China and EMEA. Adjusted digital growth plans are based on recent digital traffic softness and higher marketplace promotions, life cycle management of key product franchises and a stronger U.S. dollar that has negatively impacted second-half reported revenue versus 90 days ago.”

The company still expects gross margins to expand between 1.4 and 1.6 percentage points. Excluding restructuring charges, it expects to deliver on its full-year earnings outlook.

As part of its plan to cut costs, Nike said it’s looking to simplify its product assortment, increase automation and its use of technology, streamline the overall organization by reducing management layers and leverage its scale “to drive greater efficiency.”

It plans to reinvest the savings it gets from those initiatives into fueling future growth, accelerating innovation and driving long-term profitability.

“As we look ahead to a softer second-half revenue outlook, we remain focused on strong gross margin execution and disciplined cost management,Friend said in a press release.

The plan will cost the company between $400 million and $450 million in pretax restructuring charges that will largely come to fruition in Nike’s current quarter. Those costs are mostly related to employee severance costs, Nike said.

Earlier this month, The Oregonian reported that Nike had been quietly laying off employees over the past several weeks and had signaled that it was planning for a broader restructuring. A series of divisions saw cuts, including recruitment, sourcing, brand, engineering, human resources and innovation, the outlet reported.

The company didn’t immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on The Oregonian’s report.

During Nike’s fiscal second quarter, it posted a strong earnings beat, indicating its cost-savings initiatives were already underway. But, for the second quarter in a row, it fell short of sales estimates, which is the first time Nike has seen consecutive quarters of revenue misses since 2016.

Here’s how the sneaker giant performed compared to what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

  • Earnings per share: $1.03 vs. 85 cents expected
  • Revenue: $13.39 billion vs. $13.43 billion expected

The company reported net income for the three-month period that ended Nov. 30 was $1.58 billion, or $1.03 per share, compared to $1.33 billion, or 85 cents per share, a year earlier.

Sales rose about 1% to $13.39 billion, from $13.32 billion a year earlier.

Nike is considered a leader among industry peers such as Lululemon, Adidas and Under Armour, but its profits have been under pressure and it has been in the middle of a strategy shift that has seen it rekindle its relationships with wholesalers including Macy’s and Designer Brands, the parent company of DSW.

Focus on margins

For the past six quarters, Nike’s gross margin has declined compared to the prior-year period, but the story turned around on Thursday. Nike’s gross margin increased 1.7 percentage points to 44.6%, slightly ahead of estimates, according to StreetAccount.

This time last year, Nike’s inventories were up a staggering 43% and the retailer was in the middle of an aggressive liquidation strategy to clear out old styles and make way for new ones, which weighed heavily on its margins. Several quarters later, however, Nike is in a far better inventory position, which is a boon for margins.

During the quarter, inventories were down 14% to $8 billion.

Nike’s gross margin turnaround came as the retail environment overall has been flooded with steep promotions and discounts as retailers struggle to convince inflation-weary consumers to pay full price. In September when Nike reported fiscal first-quarter earnings, finance chief Friend said Nike was “cautiously planning for modest markdown improvements” given the overall promotional environment.

While the company repeatedly pointed out the overall promotional environment, it said the average sales price of footwear and apparel were up during the quarter and the average selling price grew across channels with higher-priced products proving particularly “resilient.”

The company attributed the gross margin uptick to “strategic pricing actions and lower ocean freight rates,” saying it was partially offset by unfavorable foreign exchange rates and higher product input costs.

As one of the last retailers to report earnings before the December holidays, investors are eager to hear good news when it comes to Nike’s expectations for the crucial shopping season. When many retailers issued holiday-quarter guidance in November, the commentary was largely tepid and cautious as companies looked to under promise and over deliver in an increasingly uncertain macro environment.

Nike struck a note that hit somewhere in the middle. Its sales miss and focus on cost cuts signal larger demand issues, but CEO John Donahoe was upbeat when discussing Black Friday week sales.

“We outpaced the industry, driving growth of close to 10%, Nike digital had its strongest Black Friday week ever and a record number of consumers shopped in our stores over the long Thanksgiving weekend,” said Donahoe.

China is another key part of the Nike story. As the region emerges from the Covid-19 pandemic and widespread lockdowns, China’s economic recovery has so far been a mixed bag. In November, retail sales climbed 10.1% in the region.

It was the fastest pace of growth since May, but those numbers were up against easy comparisons and the growth was largely driven by car sales and restaurants, according to a research note from Goldman Sachs.

During the quarter, China sales came in at $1.86 billion, which fell short of the $1.95 billion analysts had expected, according to StreetAccount. Sales in Europe, the Middle East and Africa also fell short of estimates, but revenue came in ahead in the North America, Asia-Pacific and Latin America markets, according to StreetAccount.

Read the full earnings release here.

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Jim Cramer’s top 10 things to watch in the stock market Thursday

My top 10 things to watch Thursday, Dec. 14

1. U.S. stocks are higher in premarket trading Thursday, with S&P 500 futures up 0.46%. Equities rallied Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, while indicating it would cut rates three times in 2024 — a decision more dovish than I expected. Meanwhile, bond prices are also strengthening, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury falling below 4%.

2. Toll Brothers announces a new $20 million share-buyback program — and there are only 100 million shares. But CEO Doug Yearley thinks it’s ridiculous that his stock sells at eight-times earnings when it’s more of a secular grower, despite changes in the housing industry.

3. UBS upgrades Club holding Coterra Energy to buy from neutral, citing its strong balance sheet strength and oil diversification. But the firm lowered its price target to $31 a share, down from $33.

4. Piper Sandler raises its price target on Club name Amazon to $185 a share, up from $170, while maintaining an overweight rating on the stock. The firm cites improving retail margins and an expected acceleration at cloud unit Amazon Web Services. Amazon is Piper’s top large cap pick.

5. Stifel raises its price target on Lululemon Athletica to $596 a share, up from $529, while reiterating a buy rating on the stock. The firm argues that “still sound” U.S. consumer balance sheets and wage growth should support margin expansion for companies like Lululemon with “brand specific drivers.”

6. Nike is back. Baird raises its price target on the sneaker company to $140 a share, up from $125, while keeping an outperform rating on the stock. Nike’s “quality growth profile plus margin recovery potential support a continued favorable outlook,” the firm contends.

7. Mid-stage trial data shows that Merck and Moderna‘s experimental cancer vaccine, used in conjunction with Merck’s Keytruda therapy, reduces the risk of death or relapse in patients with melanoma skin cancer after three years.

8. JPMorgan raises its price target on L3Harris Technologies to $240 a share, up from $213, while maintaining a neutral rating on the stock. The firm has “high confidence” in the aerospace-and-defense-technology company’s targets for sales and cash flow.

9. Piper Sandler upgrades Club holding Foot Locker to overweight from neutral, while raising its price target to $33 a share, up from $24. The firm cites Foot Locker’s margin expansion opportunity in 2024, arguing the company is best positioned among the athletic-and-footwear group over the next year.

10. Bernstein raises its price target on FedEx to $340 a share, up from $305, while reiterating an outperform rating on the stock. FedEx, which Bernstein expects to benefit from cost cuts and improved international market conditions, is set to report quarterly results on Dec. 19.

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The top 10 things to watch in the stock market Monday

The top 10 things to watch Monday, Dec. 11

1. U.S. stocks are muted Monday following last week’s push to a new 52-week high in the S&P 500, helped by a stronger-than-expected jobs report Friday. Good economic news is good news for the stock market, for now, with investors looking ahead to Tuesday’s consumer price index report. But we’ll learn what the Federal Reserve makes of the state of the labor market and inflation when the central bank convenes this week for its final meeting of the year.

2. Bank stocks like Club name Wells Fargo became “extraordinary performers” last week, according to Jim Cramer’s Sunday column. “The percentage gains for bank shares and the pretty stock charts, all wondrous, look like they are in their infancy,” he writes.

3. Health insurer Cigna abandons its pursuit to acquire Club holding Humana — a deal that was misguided from the start because it never would have received regulatory approval. Cigna announces a new $10 billion stock buyback. And shares of Humana rally roughly 2% in premarket trading.

4. Occidental Petroleum announces plans to buy privately held CrownRock for $12 billion in cash and stock, while raising its quarterly dividend by 4 cents, to 22 cents per share. Before the deal announcement, Morgan Stanley had upgraded Occidental to overweight from equal weight, with an unchanged price target of $68 a share.

5. More analysts are warming up to energy stocks after last week’s carnage. Citi upgrades Club holding Coterra Energy, along with EQT and Southwestern Energy, to a buy. Coterra is the firm’s top large cap pick, with a $30-per-share price target based on capital-efficiency improvements.

6. Goldman Sachs upgrades Abbvie to buy from neutral, with a $173-per-share price target. The firm cites revenue that has proved more resilient than expected, along with the drug maker’s recent deployment of capital to build out its pipeline. Over the past two weeks, Abbvie has shelled out nearly $20 billion in cash to acquire ImmunoGen and Cerevel Therapeutics.

7. JPMorgan raises its price targets on a handful of cybersecurity stocks, including CrowdStrike (to $269 a share from $230), Club name Palo Alto Networks ($326 from $272) and Zscaler ($212 from $200).

8. Citi upgrades Nike to buy from neutral, while raising its price target on the stock to $135 a share, up from $100. The firm sees margin recovery beginning in the second quarter of next year through 2025, helped by easing freight costs, leaner inventories and a shift to direct-to-consumer.

9. Jefferies upgrades Best Buy to buy from hold, while raising its price target to $89 a share, up from $69. Analysts at the bank think this call won’t take much to work, with expectations low and the stock cheap and yielding a 5% dividend.

10. Citi resumes coverage of Club holding Broadcom with a buy rating and $1,100-a-share price target. The firm sees the chipmaker’s artificial-intelligence business offsetting the cyclical downturn in the semiconductor business, along with strong accretion from its recent acquisition of VMware. We thought the company reported a better quarter last Thursday than what the market gave it credit for. 

(See here for a full list of the stocks at Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.)

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These 10 portfolio names outperformed the stock market amid the October decline

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 26, 2023. 

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

Despite a downbeat month for stocks and mounting macroeconomic uncertainty, several Club names outperformed the market in October — and landed in the green.  

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Nike misses on revenue for first time in two years, but stock pops as earnings, margins beat

Nike reported revenue Thursday that fell short of Wall Street’s sales expectations for the first time in two years, but it beat on earnings and gross margin estimates, sending its stock soaring in after-hours trading.

Here’s how the sneaker giant performed during its fiscal first quarter compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

  • Earnings per share: 94 cents vs. 75 cents expected
  • Revenue: $12.94 billion vs. $12.98 billion expected

The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended August 31 was $1.45 billion, or 94 cents per share, compared with $1.47 billion, or 93 cents per share, a year earlier.

Sales rose to $12.94 billion, up about 2% from $12.69 billion a year earlier. Revenue for the quarter was just shy of the $12.98 billion analysts had expected, according to LSEG.

Nike shares rose about 8% in extended trading Thursday.

The retailer maintained its full-year guidance of revenue growth in the mid-single digits and gross margin expansion of 1.4 to 1.6 percentage points.

“We’re closely monitoring the operating environment, including foreign currency exchange rates, consumer demand over the holiday season, and our second half wholesale order book,” said finance chief Matthew Friend on a call with analysts.

“We are cautiously planning for modest markdown improvements for the balance of the year, given the promotional environment,” he added.

For the second quarter, Nike expects revenue growth to be up slightly versus the prior year and gross margins to grow by about 1 percentage point versus the prior year.

Investors have been laser focused on Nike’s recovery in China, its relationship with its wholesale partners and how the resumption of student loan payments will impact sales. 

They’re also keen to see Nike’s margins recover after bloated inventories, high promotions and supply chain woes contributed to lower profits over the last few quarters. 

During the quarter, Nike’s gross margin fell about 0.1 percentage points to 44.2%, but it was higher than the 43.7% analysts had expected, according to StreetAccount. The company attributed the gross margin drop to higher product costs and currency exchange rates, but those trends were offset by price increases, which contributed to the earnings beat.

Sales in China grew by 5% compared to the year-ago period to $1.7 billion, which fell short of the $1.8 billion analysts had expected, according to StreetAccount.

During the previous quarter ended May 31, Nike saw China sales jump 16% compared to the year-ago period. But the numbers were against easy comparisons because the region was still under Covid-related lockdown orders during the prior year. 

While Nike remains bullish on China, the region’s economic recovery has so far been a mixed bag. Following a sluggish July, retail sales picked up during the month of August to rise 4.6% compared to the prior year, beating expectations of a 3% growth forecast by Reuters. 

“We feel good about the market there and our position,” said CEO John Donahoe, adding he’s traveled to China twice in the last four months. “Frankly, a couple things stand out. One, sport is back in China, you can just feel it, and that gives us great confidence about the future and the Chinese consumer in our segment, regardless of the macroeconomic outlook there.”

Nike saw sales jumps in every region besides North America, its largest market by revenue. Sales in North America fell 2% from the year-ago period to $5.42 billion, just above the $5.39 billion analysts had expected, according to StreetAccount.

In Europe, the Middle East and Africa, sales were up 8% at $3.61 billion. That compared with the $3.51 billion analysts had expected. Sales in its Latin America and Asia Pacific unit came in 2% higher at $1.57 billion, just shy of the $1.59 billion analysts had expected, according to StreetAccount.

The Converse brand, on the other hand, fell well short of expectations for a second quarter in a row. Sales came in at $588 million, down 9% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts had expected sales to be about $660 million, according to StreetAccount.

Nike’s direct channel, which includes its owned stores and its digital channel, led the retailer’s growth during the quarter and was up 6% compared to the prior year. In June, the company noticed that shoppers were shifting towards its stores over its digital channels, signaling consumers are getting closer to pre-pandemic shopping habits.

“We continue to see that consumers want to connect directly and personally with our brands and in fact, member engagement within our direct business is up double digits versus the prior year with increasing average order values,” said Friend.

“Our stores delivered an especially strong quarter with traffic up double digits from last year, and members driving an increasing share of our business as consumers shifted from our digital to physical channels… Our team was nimble in transitioning inventory to capture higher full-price sales across our entire store fleet,” he said.

When it comes to its wholesale revenues, Nike’s relationship with those partners have been rocky. As the company has pivoted to a direct-to-consumer model, it has focused on driving sales online and in its stores at the expense of its wholesale accounts. 

However, as Nike grappled with excess inventories throughout 2023, it relied on those partners to move through that merchandise. It has now restored its relationship with both Macy’s and DSW – accounts that it previously cut in favor of its DTC strategy. 

Some analysts expected Nike’s wholesale revenue to be sluggish during the quarter because excess inventories have been a problem throughout the retail industry – and some wholesalers are being more particular in what they order to avoid another backlog. 

Wholesale revenue during the quarter was flat compared to the year-ago period at $7 billion.

Both Donahoe and Friend made it clear to analysts that Nike is ready to meet customers in all channels — including through wholesalers and directly. The retailer shouted out Dick’s Sporting Goods as one of its key partners and noted that it’s still in the process of resetting its business with Footlocker, which has seen two quarters in a row of plunging sales and profits.

Despite the shift in how it’s working with wholesalers, Nike insisted that direct sales will pave the way to its future growth.

“Ultimately, we have a segmented portfolio of strong partners across price points and channels. With no single partner representing more than a mid-single digit of Nike’s total business,” said Friend.

“While the ultimate landing spot of digital and direct isn’t as clear, we do believe we’re going to be a more direct and a more digital company, and a more profitable company,” he said. “And there’s a channel mix and channel profitability opportunity that comes with that as well.”

Meanwhile, inventories fell 10% to $8.7 billion. The drop was driven by a decrease in units but offset by product mix and higher manufacturing and production costs.

“On the whole, we’re very comfortable with the level of inventory in the marketplace in relation to the retail sales that we’re seeing as we begin increasing levels of wholesale sell in our second half,” said Friend.

Amid decades-high inflation rates, consumers have been pulling back on apparel and footwear. With the resumption of student loan payments looming ahead, some analysts expect those sectors to take an even greater hit. 

Jefferies conducted a survey on U.S. consumer spending and found 54% of respondents plan to spend less on apparel and accessories. Meanwhile, 46% plan to spend less on footwear, which doesn’t bode well for Nike. 

It’s still too early to gauge the impact of student loan payments on Nike. Its first quarter ended in late August, and payments aren’t set to resume until October.

During the quarter, footwear sales rose 4% to $8.4 billion, making up about 68% of Nike’s total sales. Apparel was down 1% at $3.4 billion.

Correction: Nike’s gross margin fell 0.1 percentage points. An earlier version of this story misstated that figure.

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Top Wall Street analysts prefer these five stocks despite ongoing uncertainty

A USB-C (USB Type-C) cable is seen in front of a displayed Apple logo in this illustration taken October 27, 2022.

Dado Ruvic | Reuters

Market experts continue to look for opportunities to pick promising stocks trading at attractive levels as recession fears linger. Here are five stocks chosen by Wall Street’s top analysts, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance.

Apple

First on the list is innovative tech giant Apple (AAPL). The company’s performance in the December quarter was significantly hit by iPhone-related supply chain disruptions in China, currency headwinds and macro challenges. Nonetheless, several analysts, including Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani, remain bullish on the stock.

In a recent research note, Daryanani addressed investor concerns about his bullishness on Apple, despite its premium valuation compared to big tech peers. The analyst contended that in the current macro environment, Apple’s premium valuation is “not only justified but could further expand,” given its superior efficiency metrics like return on invested capital (5-year average ROIC of 39% compared to the peer group average of 21%), solid free cash flow and capital return.

Further, Daryanani stated that “AAPL has typically operated with a higher degree of consistency and importantly lower volatility.” He explained that the company was “more rational” in its hiring during the pandemic, unlike several tech companies that aggressively increased their headcount. Consequently, Apple avoided excessive stock-based compensation costs or layoffs.  

Daryanani reiterated a buy rating on Apple with a price target of $190. The analyst holds the 236th position among more than 8,000 analysts on TipRanks. Additionally, 60% of his ratings have been profitable, with an average return of 11.4%. (See Apple Blogger Opinions & Sentiment on TipRanks)

Cloudflare

Next up is Cloudflare (NET), a cloud-based content distribution network and security provider. The company has an extensive global network that reaches more than 285 cities in over 100 countries and powers websites, APIs (application programming interface), and mobile applications.

TD Cowen analyst Shaul Eyal thinks that the market is “underappreciating” Cloudflare’s ability to leverage the breadth of its global presence to “efficiently deliver new applications, including advanced security, with limited incremental cost.”

Eyal, who ranks 11 out of more than 8,300 analysts tracked on TipRanks, expects Cloudflare’s revenue to grow more than 38% this year, driven by new business and expansion within the company’s existing customer base. (See Cloudflare Hedge Fund Trading Activity on TipRanks)

Eyal noted that over 40% of the company’s revenue is generated internationally, and the company is “disrupting” several market segments, including infrastructure, telecommunications, security, and edge computing. Currently, these segments represent a total addressable market of over $115 billion, which is expected to grow to $135 billion by 2024.

Eyal reaffirmed a buy rating on Cloudflare with a price target of $75. Remarkably, Eyal has a success rate of 67% and each of his ratings has returned 24.1%, on average.

Foot Locker

This week, sneaker and athletic apparel retailer Foot Locker (FL) delivered upbeat results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022. The company revealed its revitalized partnership with Nike and long-term growth strategy, which includes several initiatives like transforming its real-estate footprint by opening new format stores, shifting to off-mall locations, and closing underperforming stores. 

Through its long-term growth plan, under the leadership of Mary Dillon, Foot Locker is targeting sales growth of 5% to 6% and adjusted earnings per share growth in the low-to-mid twenties range for fiscal 2024 through 2026.

Guggenheim analyst Robert Drbul expects Foot Locker to benefit from CEO Dillon’s “extensive knowledge and deep understanding of off-mall and big-box retailing.” That said, he thinks that the company’s strategic plan needs time to materialize as Dillon is still building her team.

Drbul reiterated a buy rating on Foot Locker stock with a price target of $60, noting that “2023 will be a reset year as Foot Locker navigates its revitalized Nike (NKE) relationship, repositions its Champs banner, optimizes its fleet, absorbs exit costs, increases its tech investments, and continues to drive cost savings.” 

Drbul is ranked No. 440 among more than 8,000 analysts followed on TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 61% of the time, with each rating delivering an average return of 7.5%. (See Foot Locker Stock Chart on TipRanks)

Cisco Systems

Cisco (CSCO) offers a broad range of products and solutions across networking, security, collaboration, and the cloud. Tigress Financial analyst Ivan Feinseth recently reiterated a buy rating on Cisco with a price target of $73, saying that the company continues to gain from the rising need for faster, secure networks and cloud hosting infrastructure.

Feinseth noted that the company built up a large order backlog during the pandemic when corporate customers continued to upgrade their networks, fueled by “increasing demand for information access and supporting larger networks.”

“The recovery and growth of IT spending in 2023 and beyond, along with CSCO’s ongoing shift to services and software-driven subscription revenue, will continue to drive accelerating Business Performance trends,” said Feinseth. (See Cisco Insider Trading Activity on TipRanks)

The analyst also explained that Cisco’s solid balance sheet and cash flow continue to support its growth efforts, strategic acquisitions, and enhanced shareholder returns. Feinseth holds the 164th position among more than 8,000 analysts on TipRanks. Additionally, 62% of his ratings have been profitable, with an average return of 11.8%.

Acushnet Holdings

Feinseth is also bullish about Acushnet (GOLF), a company that sells golf products and owns leading brands like Titleist and FootJoy. The analyst recently upgraded GOLF stock to buy from hold and increased the price target to $62 from $50.

Feinseth expects Acushnet’s impressive brand equity and market-leading products, coupled with new launches, to drive further gains in the stock. Feinseth emphasized that the company’s 2022 results were boosted by double-digit sales growth in the Titleist golf club, Titleist gear and FootJoy golf wear segments.

The analyst noted that Acushnet’s 2022 performance benefited from a wide range of innovative products, including new TSR models that rapidly became “the most-played model on the PGA tour.” (See Acushnet Financial Statements on TipRanks)

“GOLF is well-positioned to gain from the ongoing post-pandemic growth in golf, including rounds played and growth in player population, especially from younger and new golf players,” said Feinseth. 

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Shrinking food stamp benefits for families mean yet another challenge for retailers

A worker carries bananas inside the Walmart SuperCenter in North Bergen, New Jersey.

Eduardo Munoz Alvarez | AP

For some shoppers who already struggle to cover grocery bills, the budget is getting tighter.

This month, pandemic-related emergency funding from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps, is ending in most states, leaving many low-income families with less to spend on food.

More than 41 million Americans receive funding for food through the federal program. For those households, it will amount to at least $95 less per month to spend on groceries. Yet for many families, the drop will be even steeper since the government assistance scales up to adjust for household size and income.

For grocers like Kroger, big-box players like Walmart and discounters like Dollar General, the drop in SNAP dollars adds to an already long list of worries about the year ahead. It’s likely to pressure a weakening part of retailers’ business: sales of discretionary merchandise, which are crucial categories for retailers, as they tend to drive higher profits.

Major companies, including Best Buy, Macy’s and Target, have shared cautious outlooks for the year, saying shoppers across incomes have become more careful about spending on items such as clothing or consumer electronics as they pay more for necessities such as housing and food.

Food, in particular, has emerged as one of the hardest-hit inflation categories, up 10.2% year-over-year as of February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“You still have to feed the same number of mouths, but you have to make choices,” said Karen Short, a retail analyst for Credit Suisse.

“So what you’re doing is you’re definitely having to cut back on discretionary,” she said.

The stretch has made it impossible for some to afford even basic items. It’s still too early to see the full impact of the reduced SNAP benefits, said North Texas Food Bank CEO Trisha Cunningham, but food pantries in the Dallas-Fort Worth area have started to see more first-time guests. The nonprofit helps stock shelves at pantries that serve 13 counties.

Demand for meals has ballooned, even from pandemic levels, she said. The nonprofit used to provide about 7 million meals per month before the pandemic and now provides between 11 million and 12 millions meals per month.

“We knew these [extra SNAP funds] were going away and they were going to be sunsetted,” she said. “But what we didn’t know is that we were going to have the impact of inflation to deal with on top of this.”

Shifting market share

So far, retail sales in the first two months of the year have proven resilient, even as consumers contend with inflation and follow a stimulus-fueled boom in spending in the early years of the pandemic. On a year-over-year basis, retail spending was up 17.6% in February, according to the Commerce Department.

Some of those higher sales have come from higher prices. The annual inflation rate is at 6% as of February, according to the Labor Department’s tracking of the consumer price index, which measures a broad mix of goods and services. That index has also gotten a lift from restaurant and bar spending, which has bounced back from earlier in the pandemic and begun to compete more with money spent on goods.

Yet retailers themselves have pointed out cracks in consumer health, noting rising credit card balances, more sales of lower-priced private label brands and shoppers’ heightened response to discounts and promotions.

Some retailers mentioned the SNAP funding decrease on earnings calls, too.

Kroger CEO Rodney McMullen called it “a meaningful headwind for the balance of the year.”

“We’re hopeful that everybody will work together to continue or find additional money,” he said on the company’s earnings call with investors earlier this month. “But as you know, because of inflation, there’s a lot of people whose budget is under strain.”

Credit Suisse’s Short said for lower-income families, the food cost squeeze comes on top of climbing expenses for nearly everything else, whether that’s paying the electric bill or filling up the gas tank.

“I don’t think I could tell you what a tailwind is for the consumer,” she said. “There just isn’t a single tailwind in my view.”

Emergency allotments of SNAP benefits previously ended in 18 states, which could preview the effect of the decreased funding nationwide. In a research note for Credit Suisse, Short found an average decline in SNAP spending of 28% across several retailers from the date the additional funding ended.

Some grocers and big-box retailers could feel the impact more than others. According to an analysis by Credit Suisse, Grocery Outlet has the highest exposure to SNAP with an estimated 13% of its 2021 sales coming from the program. That’s followed by BJ’s Wholesale with about 9%, Dollar General at about 9%, Dollar Tree at about 7%, Walmart’s U.S. business with 5.5% and Kroger with about 5%, according to the bank’s estimates, which were based on company filings and government data.

Retailers that draw a higher-income customer base, such as Target and Costco, should feel comparatively less effect, Short said. If nothing else, the dwindling SNAP dollars could shift shoppers from one retailer to another, she said, as major players seek to grab up market share and undercut on prices.

Fewer dollars to go around

Another factor could make for a bumpier start to retailers’ fiscal year, which typically kicks off in late January or early February: Tax refunds are trending smaller this year.

The average refund amount was $2,972, down 11% from an average payment of $3,352 as of the same point in last year’s filing season, according to IRS data as of the week of March 10. That average payout could still change over time, though, as the IRS continues to process millions of Americans’ returns ahead of the mid-April deadline.

Dollar General Chief Financial Officer John Garratt said on an earnings call this month that the discounter is monitoring how its shoppers respond to the winding down of emergency SNAP benefits and lower tax refunds.

He said stores did not see a change in sales patterns when emergency SNAP funds previously ended in some states, but he added that “the customer is in a different place now.”

Tax refunds can act as a cash infusion for retailers, as some people spring for big-ticket items like a pair of brand-name sneakers or a sleek new TV, said Marshal Cohen, chief industry advisor for The NPD Group, a market research company.

This year, though, even if people get their regular refund, they may use it to pay bills or whittle down debt, he said.

One bright spot for retailers could be an 8.7% cost-of-living increase in Social Security payments. Starting in January, recipients received on average $140 more per month.

However, Cohen said, the cash influx might not be enough to offset pressure on younger consumers, particularly those between ages 18 and 24, who have just started jobs and face milestone expenses like signing a lease or buying a car.

“Everything’s costing them so much more for the early, big spends of their consumer career,” he said.

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