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Opinion: Opinion | Lok Sabha Polls Phase 2: Can NDA Maintain Its 2019 Lead? What Numbers Say

Post By Stock bjp, Congress, date, Elections, india, Lok Sabha, Opposition, phase, polling, polls, result, vote, voting

As many as 87 seats are set to go to polls on April 26 in the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections. These seats are spread across 13 states: five each in Assam and Bihar, three each in Chhattisgarh and West Bengal, one each in Jammu & Kashmir and Tripura, 14 in Karnataka, 20 in Kerala, six in Madhya Pradesh, eight in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, and 13 in Rajasthan. Apart from these, one constituency in Manipur that voted in the previous phase will witness polling this time too in the remaining booths. Meanwhile, elections in Madhya Pradesh’s Betul have been pushed to Phase 3 after the death of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidate.

In effect – three states, Rajasthan, Kerala and Karnataka – account for over half of the seats going to the polls on April 26. While the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) hopes to maintain – if not improve – its tally, the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc will need to make a dent in the NDA’s numbers to really gain some edge.

Turnout In 2019

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress are contesting 70 seats each, while the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M) is in the fray in 16 in Kerala. The BSP has put up candidates in 74 constituencies, higher than even the BJP and the Congress.

In terms of turnout, in 2014, these 87 seats recorded 67.3% polling, and in 2019, the voting percentage rose to 70.1%. The decline in turnout in Phase 1 of the elections has been a subject of intense debate, and hence, how much voting the upcoming phase will see will be monitored closely by all.

The polling numbers will also have to be tracked not only in total but also seat-wise. Seventy-one of these 87 seats saw higher voting percentages in 2019, and of them, the incumbent party lost in 24. On the other hand, the turnout saw a decline in 17 seats, and the winning party from 2014 lost in six constituencies.

Winning Margins Bigger For BJP

In the previous elections, the BJP won 52 seats, the Congress 18, while other parties and candidates won 17. Adjusting for allies, the NDA secured victory in 61 constituencies, the INDIA bloc in 23, while non-aligned parties got three seats. For the NDA, the winning margins were around 20% in those 61 seats, meaning that the areas are the alliance’s strongholds and a large number of swing votes will be required to sway the results any other way.

Meanwhile, the Congress’s winning margins in 18 seats in the last election were much smaller – around 10%. This means that a swing of just 5% votes in these regions can put the grand old party on the back foot. Non-aligned parties won with an even thinner margin of 5%, and these seats may see cut-throat contests this time.

Assam And Bihar Contests

Of the five seats going to polls in Assam, the BJP won four last time, and the Congress just one. The latter hopes to gain a few this year on the back of the discontent and the consequent polarisation due to the implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA).

In Bihar’s five seats that will witness polling tomorrow, the Janata Dal (United) (JD-U) won four and the Congress merely one in the 2019 contest. The Mahagathbandhan formation is hoping to bank on the mistrust and anger that Nitish Kumar’s constant flip-flops may have caused amongst certain sections.

Can Karnataka Spring A Surprise?

Fourteen seats are going to the polls in Karnataka tomorrow. Of them, the BJP won 11 in 2019, while the remaining three were netted by the Congress, the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD-S) and an independent. Given the implementation of the ‘guarantees’ by the Siddaramaiah government since it came to power in the state last year, the Congress hopes to make significant gains this time.

The BJP, meanwhile, hopes to neutralise losses due to anti-incumbency by aligning with H.D. Deve Gowda’s JD(S), which has decent clout in Southern Karnataka.

The Kerala Battlefront

Kerala is going to be an interesting battle. Of the 20 seats going to polls here, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) had won 19 seats in the previous Lok Sabha election, while the CPI(M) led Left Democratic Front (LDF) could bag only a single constituency. The BJP hopes to make the contest triangular this time in around five seats where it bagged a 20-30% vote share, and finally open its account in the state. High-profile candidates like Anil Antony, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, Suresh Gopi and V. Muraleedharan may help it in that endeavour, but the battle remains tough.

However, the main contest is between the UDF and the LDF. The two Communist parties and the Congress, which are friends in Delhi but foes in Kerala, have been attacking each other aggressively. While the LDF has attacked the Congress over Rahul Gandhi’s candidature from Wayanad and not Uttar Pradesh, the latter has questioned why Chief Minister Pinayari Vijayan is not behind bars. The Left has also been raising the CAA issue and the Manipur conflict to woo minorities and win a few seats.

Hat-Trick Bid In Rajasthan, Local Currents In Maharashtra

In Rajasthan, the BJP in 2019 had won all the 13 seats that are going to the polls on April 26. The party hopes to score a hat-trick in the state and win all its 25 Lok Sabha seats again. However, a resurgent Congress and the recent Jat/Rajput ire could put a spanner in the works.

Meanwhile, in Maharashtra, of the eight seats that are poll-bound, the BJP had won three in 2019, the Shiv Sena four, and an independent candidate one. But since then, three erstwhile Sena MPs have joined the Eknath Shinde faction in recent months. The battle in Maharashtra has heated up, with the crucial question for the state and its voters being who the real Sena and the real Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) are. After the splits in both parties, while the symbols are with the Shinde and Ajit Pawar factions, the family legacy rests with Uddhav and Sharad Pawar. The contest has turned somewhat local, which is not good for any incumbent; a Presidential-style battle is usually beneficial.

In 2019, the BJP won all the eight seats going to the polls in Uttar Pradesh, except one – Amroha – which was bagged by the BSP. This time, with Mayawati’s party not being a constituent of the INDIA bloc, the BJP hopes to win all of these eight seats. That could be possible but not easy, given that the party’s winning margins in two seats last time, Meerut and Baghpat, were just 4,700 and 23,500 votes, respectively.

To achieve ‘Mission 370’, the BJP will need a strike rate of 83%. It could touch only 72% in the previous Lok Sabha elections. Can it raise its tally this time?

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.

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Left vs Right: Finland goes to the polls in close presidential race

Post By World Alexander Stubb, Finland, Finland politics, voting

The two leading contenders represent the left and right-wing of the Finnish political spectrum and are separated by just three percentage points as advance polling stations open.

Finns head to the polls this week with advance voting open in the presidential election, while the main ballot takes place at the end of the month.

Voting patterns suggest a third of voters at home and abroad could cast their ballots ahead of 28 January, with Finns overseas also eligible to vote during this period.

From a field of nine candidates, two have emerged as clear favourites to go through to a second round of voting in mid-February, although a late surge from the far-right candidate could still be a surprise upset.

Two former foreign ministers, Alex Stubb from the ruling right-wing National Coalition Party (known locally as Kokoomus) and Pekka Haavisto, a Green politician, have been clearly ahead of the field in opinion polls in a long campaign that has seen the candidates face scrutiny on everything from their foreign policy chops to favourite music, books, food, what cars they drive, and their pets’ social media posts.

The latest polling shows Stubb and Haavisto within three percentage points of each other.

The role of the president in Finland is one of the few in Europe both directly elected and not largely ceremonial – unlike Italy, Germany, Estonia or Poland, for example. The position also comes with constitutional responsibility for foreign policy outside of the EU, and the office-holder is commander-in-chief of the Finnish defence forces.

But the president cannot act unilaterally: he or she must work in cooperation with the government of the day during their six-year term as Finland’s head of state.

The office took on greater importance under incumbent Sauli Niinistö, as Finland moved to cement its decades-long alignment with NATO and formally join the military alliance.

Alex Stubb represents the right

Alex Stubb, a US-educated former Finnish PM and foreign minister, has been out of frontline politics for the last seven years: first working at the European Investment Bank in Luxembourg, and then at a university in Italy.

That absence may have shielded him somewhat from the travails of Finnish domestic political dramas: his party Kokoomus has formed a coalition government with the far-right Finns Party, which has been dogged with controversies over racism, support for ethno-nationalist conspiracy theories and links to neo-Nazi groups since taking power last summer.

Although Stubb has so far remained above the government fray, he still attracts support from far-right voters who would prefer him in the presidential palace than his liberal, Green, gay opponent.

“Voters would get an internationally very well-connected and politically experienced president with vast knowledge of European Union and European politics,” with Alex Stubb, says Jenny Karimäki, a political scientist at the University of Helsinki.

Multilingual Stubb has been fervently pro-European throughout his political career and supported NATO membership long before it was fashionable to do so. But questions have been raised about his ‘likeability’ factor especially as his party is traditionally seen as the party of Finland’s rich – and his Swedish-Finnish background, elite education, penchant for designer suits and sometimes brusque attitude can rub working-class Finns up the wrong way.

Stubb’s campaign said he was too busy to answer questions sent in advance by Euronews.

Pekka Haavisto represents the left

This is Pekka Haavisto’s third crack at becoming Finland’s president, he came second in the last two elections behind Sauli Niinistö.

Europe’s first openly gay cabinet minister, Haavisto has been with his partner for more than 20 years, a trailblazer for LGBTQ representation at the highest levels of politics: leading his party, and working as a United Nations envoy.

“Voters would get a president that held a key position as foreign secretary during Finland’s NATO process and thus, has cutting edge knowledge in the fields of foreign and security policy as well as a background and experience as a peace negotiator in Global South,” explains Jenny Karimäki from the University of Helsinki.

Haavisto tells Euronews there’s a feeling of “positive momentum” in his campaign, as he tours the country in a new campaign bus.

“People are very eager to discuss national security. There is a lot of enthusiasm in the air,” he adds.

Seemingly able to deflect potential scandals with ease during his time at the foreign ministry, Haavisto has nonetheless been criticised for being a difficult manager, and for his handling of the scheme to bring back Finnish nationals married to ISIS fighters, and their children, who were stranded at a refugee camp in Syria.

Haavisto might also have gone too far in trying to appeal as an everyman candidate, while alienating some on the left. In a strategy to attract voters from the centre and soft-right, Haavisto declared he wasn’t a “red” candidate. He brushed off that misstep, telling Euronews that “party affiliations are not at the forefront” of this campaign.

“Haavisto’s track record and his managing skills and style have been under evaluation in the Finnish media,” adds Helsinki University’s Jenny Karimäki.

Seven other candidates in a crowded race

There are seven other candidates in the race but so far none of them has seemed to break through nationally.

The leader of the Left Alliance party Li Andersson is considered one of the brightest politicians of her generation but still her polling hovers in the mid-single digits.

Jutta Urpilainen, on leave from her job as Finland’s EU Commissioner, only jumped into the race belatedly, and somewhat half-heartedly, at the end of last year but has failed to gain any real traction for the Social Democrats.

The Christian Democrats’ Sari Essayah, a former MEP and 1993’s 10,000 metre speedwalking World Champion is on her second presidential campaign and still polling around 1% – 2%; while Hjallis Harkimo, a millionaire reality TV show star who started his own Movement Now political party finds himself languishing there similarly.

The Centre Party’s Olli Rehn, another former EU Commissioner and currently Chairman of the Bank of Finland has run a solid campaign, and looks ‘presidential’ in his appearances, but his party’s national fortunes have been in the doldrums since the last general election and this will almost certainly reflect on him: Rehn will be lucky to get more than 10% of the vote in the first round.

Mika Aaltola, an independent candidate with a background in foreign policy, has seen his poll numbers drop like a stone from being one of the front-runners a year ago to low single digits now. A lack of party infrastructure to support his campaigning, and lack of prior political experience, have proved to be the weak points in his presidential bid.

The candidate of the far-right Finns Party, Jussi Halla-aho has attempted to fire the campaign with increasingly populist rhetoric: he’s filed police reports against a young Green politician and a comedian for calling him a “fascist”; and he’s also said that Members of Parliament and government ministers should be native-born Finns without a foreign background, something that has been criticised as unconstitutional.

But could he make a late, populist surge, and get into the second round of voting?

“To my knowledge Halla-aho’s support comes mainly from the Finns Party supporters and he has not been able to attract support across the party spectrum,” says Jenny Karimäki from the University of Helsinki.

“Finns Party support is at around 17% and should he be able to convince all of them it might be a tight race but to do that Halla-aho would have to win back all those Finns Party supporters currently supporting Alexander Stubb,” she explains.

“Thus far, Halla-aho’s campaign has not, however, revealed anything particularly new aspects of him and his politics that would turn the table in his favour vis-a-vis Stubb.”

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In Zimbabwe, Zanu-PF are trying to steal the election again

Post By World corruption, democracy, election, Rule of Law, voting, Zimbabwe

It is imperative that the EU, UK, US and other democratic voices help Zimbabwe stand tall and show the rest of Africa that the retreat of democracy is not inevitable, Lord Oates writes.

Long-time observers of Zimbabwe will feel a strong sense of déjà vu ahead of Wednesday’s parliamentary and presidential elections.

An ageing leader is boxed in by an economic crisis. He clings to power in the face of deep unpopularity by clamping down on opposition activists and stifling media freedom.

Fears mount that the president will refuse to leave office even if he is defeated, and will try to steal the election through spreading misinformation and intimidating his political enemies.

When Emmerson Mnangagwa succeeded Robert Mugabe in a palace coup backed by the army six years ago, those who did not know — or chose to ignore — Mnangagwa’s blood-soaked history had high hopes that he would bring political reform.

Instead, democratic space has been further shut down as the president’s repressive rule deepens the suffering of ordinary Zimbabweans.

It’s not the first time this is happening

Faced with triple-digit inflation, a sinking currency, and billions of external debt, Mnangagwa can barely pay teachers or nurses, or provide food to almost half of the population living in rural areas who are at risk of hunger.

He has responded to his growing unpopularity by harassing and detaining opposition activists, trade unionists and journalists.

The opposition, Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC), fears a rerun of the last presidential elections, in 2018, when a widely predicted opposition victory crumbled to dust.

Zimbabwe’s politicised electoral commission mysteriously delayed the announcement of the official results for five days.

In this fog of confusion, Zanu-PF were awarded hundreds of thousands more votes than election observers had seen being cast at polling stations.

When voters took to the streets to protest, Mnangagwa’s security forces opened fire on civilians at random, killing six.

This time around, the EU has sent 150 election observers, and the Carter Center in the US has deployed 30 observers to observe polling, counting, and tabulation on election day.

This presence, together with a nationwide system in which volunteers will count the number of votes cast, should make attempts to steal the elections harder.

‘Patriotic Law’, intimidation and violence

But the opposition have formidable obstacles in their way. Mnangagwa recently imposed the “Patriotic Law”, which threatens anyone who is deemed to be “wilfully injuring the sovereignty and national interest of Zimbabwe” with the death penalty.

This has had a dampening effect on free speech, making opposition politicians and activists fearful of engaging with international media.

Under another new law, NGOs can also be summarily banned, or their leadership replaced, with no recourse to the courts.

The election campaign has been marked by widespread intimidation and violence against opposition supporters, the banning and obstruction of political rallies, and candidates burnt out of their homes.

Recently, an opposition campaigner, Tinashe Chitsunge, was brutally murdered.

The greatest barrier to the election of an alternative government is the capture of the Electoral Commission by Zanu-PF.

It is currently packed with party supporters, run by a retired army general, who has been accused of passing on voter data to Zanu-PF, which they have used to send campaign text messages to voters.

Such information, needless to say, is not available to the opposition. This has been combined with attempts to deregister opposition candidates, fewer polling stations in districts where the opposition are strong, and a state-controlled media that barely offers airtime to the opposition.

The question may be asked: if democracy is under such sustained attack, how can the rest of the world support the Zimbabwean people?

Ignoring the issues won’t win friends in Africa

Firstly, we must pressure Western governments not to cave in and legitimise an election that has been stolen.

China is buying up lithium mines in Zimbabwe — the continent’s largest producer of the mineral — to provide components for batteries in electric cars.

It, and other authoritarian states, do so with the advantage that they avoid accusations that they are lecturing Africans on human rights.

The West, which also wants access to these resources, may be tempted to mirror this behaviour.

But this would set a terrible precedent. Zimbabwe and its people cannot live better lives until the rule of law is restored, and free and fair elections can legitimately take place.

Ignoring democratic shortcomings will not win friends for the West in Africa or secure a brighter future for Zimbabweans.

Western countries are understandably nervous about standing in judgement on African politics, given their history of colonialism.

However, ignoring extrajudicial killings, torture, arbitrary arrests, summary trials, censorship, bans on assembly, and obvious vote-rigging by Zanu PF, will not atone for past oppression inflicted under colonial rule.

Democratic voices need to step in

The elections offer hope to millions of Zimbabweans that there might be a brighter future. And there is reason for some optimism.

In neighbouring Zambia, the political opposition recently managed to win and secure a democratic transition.

Such a path exists for Zimbabwe, in the event of a free and fair election bringing about democratic change.

But to help this come about, it is imperative that the EU, UK, US and other democratic voices, offer a swift plan to ease some of the country’s international debt burdens and help with the democratic transition.

By doing so, they can help Zimbabwe stand tall and show the rest of Africa that the retreat of democracy is not inevitable.

Lord Oates is a member of the UK House of Lords and Co-Chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Zimbabwe. He taught in rural Zimbabwe in the late 1980s.

At Euronews, we believe all views matter. Contact us at [email protected] to send pitches or submissions and be part of the conversation.

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We need EU-wide voting to make European ideals a reality

Post By World election, European Parliament, European Parliament Elections 2024, European Union, voting

By Damian Boeselager, European Parliament Member • Updated: 20/07/2023
– 14:29

Every citizen of any of the 27 EU member states should be able to vote for any other EU citizen up for election. This is what the European Union stands for — all of us being equal, Damian Boeselager writes.

A year before the European elections, anti-EU parties are on the rise again.

In their upcoming campaigns, they will try to convince people that the EU is far away and that Europeans are better off without it.

And, of course, they will point towards the seemingly opaque decision-making procedures of a confusing technocratic government: how was European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen elected? What are the EU government’s main building blocks? Who sits in the European Parliament?

Many people don’t know the answers to these questions. I admit that before becoming politically active, I would not have been able to name a single European Parliament member.

Today, I am still aware of how little people my age know about the European Union.

However, I believe this is as much an issue of trust as it is one of knowledge. Even if many of us do not know the national system well, we often still trust it more than what some see as the “obscure corridors of power” in Brussels.

So how can we bridge this gap?

Crises don’t care for borders

First, global trends make the need for European cooperation more pressing, and recent events have shown that us standing together is elementary to all of us.

Europe has finally seen that national politics are not enough to handle crises that don’t know of or care for borders between our nations.

In fact, we have learned that European citizens in Lithuania can be just as affected by the same emergency as those in Portugal, for example.

Over the past decades, a European financial and banking crisis, a refugee emergency, a devastating pandemic, Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine, and climate-related disasters have made national answers look less relevant.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments rushed to help each other, for example, at the border of France and Germany. Nurses from Romania were deployed to Italy amid the worst peak of the pandemic.

But it was the EU that ensured borders remained open for essential goods such as pharmaceutical products, masks, and food.

And it was the EU — with the approval of national health ministers — that ensured we have vaccines produced and distributed across the continent.

After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, our union showed unprecedented solidarity and goodwill toward Ukrainians, our fellow Europeans who are still not a part of our union — at least for now.

The bad habit of stealing the union’s thunder

However, the bad habit of national politicians taking credit for EU achievements and blaming national mistakes on Europe stands against this trend. I personally experienced this in my negotiations for the BlueCard visa programme.

We updated this visa —a special residence permit issued to highly qualified foreign workers — on the EU level to be more attractive to IT personnel and to allow for more freedom of movement.

But just this month, the German government marketed these improvements as part of their new “skilled migration package”.

We should not be surprised if people don’t know about the achievements of the EU if everyone on the national level actively tries to hide them. And usually, the belief in our union pays the price.

The EU is all about everyone being equal

Elections play a crucial role in building trust between politicians and their voters.

That’s why I worked on a new law for the EU elections to strengthen that bond. With a couple of other people, I supported the idea that we shouldn’t only vote for national parties but also get the choice of who we want to support on the European level.

After all, the European factions form the powerhouses in the European Parliament and decide on many important issues. They should be held accountable with our vote.

This idea that became known as “transnational lists” would also have additional positive side effects where European political parties would gain further visibility, we could have multiple nationalities on the same party list, and we could measure the success of the European parties against their election promises.

 People would be able to have their say on whether they want a more conservative or progressive Europe, regardless of whether they like their national conservative or progressive party or not.

And most importantly: every citizen of any of the 27 EU member states could vote for any other EU citizen up for election.

This is what the European Union stands for — all of us being equal. In fact, it embodies the promise of the “European dream” we all believe in.

We need to work together as one united continent

That’s why it’s a shame that our idea of European lists has been stalled among the 27 relevant national ministers.

Some people argue that an additional vote for European lists would only create seats for representatives who are too far away from voters and the issues that matter to them the most.

But let’s be honest: would another 28 MEPs — on top of the existing 705 — coming from member states other than those of their voters be different compared to the existing European parties wielding power in the European Parliament when it comes to responsibility and accountability?

I honestly think it’s quite the opposite. As voters would become more involved by the nature of the fact that they would be made to choose their representative at the European level, they would also be inclined to demand more clarity and presence from European politicians and administration.

Europeanisation of elections could bring a much-needed more profound understanding of the union’s functioning, its past, present, and future, and could further the fact that we need to work together as one united continent.

It is sad that due to national party interests, our European democracy operates well below its potential.

As an MEP, I can promise to continue to fight for a better European democracy — and after the next elections, I am confident we will have additional friends in the house to make an even bigger difference and try and bring fellow Europeans closer again.

Damian Boeselager (Greens/EFA) is a Member of the European Parliament (MEP).

At Euronews, we believe all views matter. Contact us at [email protected] to send pitches or submissions and be part of the conversation.

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Everything you need to know about Finland’s general election

Post By World Finland, Finland politics, Sanna Marin, voting

Voters in Finland go to the polls on Sunday in a general election that could see a change of both prime minister and ruling coalition government.

Here’s everything you need to know about Finnish politics, parties, personalities and the issues at stake as the Nordic nation votes:

How did we get here?

The last general election in April 2019 saw Prime Minister Antti Rinne brought to power, leading a new red-green administration.

If you don’t remember Rinne, that’s because he lasted less than six months in office and was replaced by Sanna Marin before the end of that year after some internal squabbles with the Centre Party.

A Centre Party leadership change resulted in that famous female-lead government lineup in Finland — where all five party leaders were women, with four of them under the age of 35 at the time — which put intersectional feminism at the heart of government policymaking.

There was yet another change of leader at the Centre Party in 2020 parliament, but it still left five women heading the government — unprecedented in Finland or anywhere around the world.

How does an election in Finland work?

Up for grabs on 2 April are 200 seats in the Finnish Parliament — or Eduskunta — including one representative from the autonomous Åland Islands (which also has its own small parliament in the capital Mariehamn, to govern on devolved issues).

Early voting already got underway from 22 to 28 March at locations around the country (and from 22 to 25 March at Finnish embassies. According to the Ministry of Justice’s election information service, by Monday morning some 25.9% of people had cast their ballots ahead of Sunday’s election day.

Unlike some other Nordic and Baltic countries, there’s no minimum threshold for parties to get into parliament, but if a party gets more than 2% of votes nationally they qualify for state funding in the future.

Which are the main parties?

At the last election in 2019 there were nine parties returned to parliament, spanning from the Left Alliance on one side of the political spectrum, to the far-right populist Finns Party on the other.

There’s been a bit of splintering in parliament since then — one Finns Party MP was expelled after being too racist, and set up his own solo parliamentary group; while a National Coalition Party MP lost the support of his party’s leadership after allegations surfaced about his conduct with young women, and he also flew solo (he’s since decided to stand as a Finns Party candidate in April’s election).

There was very little to separate the top three parties in 2019 — Social Democrats, Finns Party and National Coalition Party — with just one seat between each of them, and the polling is equally close at this election too.

Social Democrats: This is the ruling centre-left party headed by Sanna Marin. Traditionally pro-union, more recently a political home for immigrants and people with a foreign background, Marin has positioned the party as more progressive and pro-European than ever before. A criticism however has been that Marin does not have a wide circle of political advisers, can tend to take decisions on her own, and it has been reported there’s nobody around her to say “no” even when needed.

National Coalition Party: A right-wing, conservative political party headed by Petteri Orpo, and part of the EPP on a European level. Orpo’s not the most charismatic leader, and has historically struggled in debates with other more competent party leaders. The National Coalition Party, or Kokoomus as it’s known in Finland, is the only mainstream Finnish party never to have a female leader.

Finns Party: A far-right populist movement, the Finns Party has done well to position itself as a place where protest voters can find a home: even as topics on which they traditionally focuse like immigration, have become less of an issue during this election campaign. The party’s leader Riikka Purra can come across as dour: but her plain style of speaking, and the party’s increasing use of TikTok, has seen them really connect with younger voters in particular. However there are still a lot of issues along the way, with allegations of racism in this campaign, and a number of Finns Party MPs with court convictions for race-related charges.

Centre Party: Keskusta was a powerhouse of Finnish politics for decades, and even two governments ago was the largest party in parliament, when Juha Sipilä was prime minister. Since a terrible election result in 2019 when voters punished them for their part in austerity policies, Keskusta is on its third leader in Annika Saarikko who has marched her party down to its lowest every polling numbers. If they do as badly as predicted at this election, losing 5-10 seats, her time in office should be measured in minutes rather than hours: but you can never count Keskusta out in Finnish politics.

Green League: Finland’s Greens have also been having a rough time of it in this election campaign, and in Helsinki will certainly see their dominant position slip, as they lose voters to the Social Democrats. They’re very much an urban Green party, like many in Europe, and their leader Maria Ohisalo is a talented politician, but has been under-used in the current government as interior minister where she had less chance to shine, and now as environment minister.

Left Alliance: Under the leadership of Li Andersson, one of the sharpest politicians in government, the Left Alliance have had a good four years, and are on target to pick up a few extra seats at this election.

Swedish Peoples’ Party: The Swedish People’s Party are one of the constants of Finnish politics, easily able to adapt themselves across the political aisle, and have been part of almost every government since the early 1980s. Their conservative economic policies fit nicely with the right, while their socially liberal, pro-European and values-based politics fit easily with the left. After seven years as party leader, we could however see Anna-Maja Henriksson step down, but expect the election result to be stable nonetheless, with 10 MPs predicted.

Christian Democrats: While the party has drifted further to the right over the last few years, and lost support, its leader (former world champion long-distance walker) Sari Essayah is well liked and widely respected in parliament which possibly opens doors to government when coalition building begins.

Liike Nyt: The ‘Movement Now’ party was founded by millionaire businessman Hjallis Harkimo who has been compared to Donald Trump as the former host of the Finnish “Apprentice” TV show, and because he appears to be trying to create a political dynasty with both his son and daughter running for parliament in next Sunday’s vote. Liike Nyt are unlikely to get more than one MP – Harkimon himself – into parliament as they bank on his own personal popularity especially among the small business community. A party which started out as an interesting experiment in democracy — Likke Nyt originally wanted to take positions on issues in parliament based on what their members voted in online polls — has largely just become a vanity project for Harkimo.

There are also a dozen or so other, smaller, parties fielding candidates for the election. A number of them are on the extreme far right — basically neo-Nazi and white power parties — as well as the Feminist Party, an animal rights party and the Liberal Party. The Liberals (which started out life as the Whisky Party!) have been gaining ground for a few years especially around the Helsinki capital city region. Although it still seems like a reach for them to get a candidate elected to parliament, they might just cross the 2% threshold to receive state funding for their party going forward.

Main policy themes

This is an unprecedented election in many ways: Sanna Marin’s government lead the country through the COVID pandemic, to general (if often grudging) satisfaction at home (but a fair amount of international praise).

Marin also goes down in history as the prime minister who launched her country’s NATO application process.

Previously, Finland had been closely aligned militarily with NATO and the West but not actually a member of the 28-nation alliance. That all changed in early spring 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when Finnish public opinion swung suddenly in favour of joining NATO.

Marin is credited with not only taking Finland down the path of NATO membership but with pulling Sweden in the same direction: and it looks as if she might still be PM if both holdouts, Hungary and Turkey, ratify within the next several weeks.

During the last election campaign, values issues like the environment, immigration and equality were important themes but this year there has been much more emphasis on the economy, the cost of living crisis, and spending prioirities for whoever gets into government.

“In the end, everything boils down to money one way or another. Whether we are talking about social politics, or education or national debt, I think everything is about money,” says Jenny Kärimäki, a political history researcher at the University of Helsinki.

“Of course it’s all about where the money goes, and that’s an ideological choice, so we are back to discussing these very very traditional left-right issues,” she tells Euronews.

One important factor in this election is Sanna Marin herself, explains Kärimäki, as the PM continues to perform strongly in the polls — better than her party, and better when measures against other party leaders.

“If you look at opinion polls when people are asked whether they think Sanna Marin has done a good job, then her rating is always significantly higher than the rating for the Social Democratic Party. So she is definitely an asset to them. Then again, one can only vote for her in one electoral district,” says Kärimäki.

“Then again, Sanna Marin as a figure, although she has a lot of support across party lines, there are also people who dislike her very intensely.”

Any political blunders along the way?

No election campaign – indeed, no parliamentary cycle – is complete without some blunders along the way, and Sanna Marin in particular is no stranger to apologising for things that went wrong.

In December 2021 she had to apologise for going on a night out to a Helsinki bar after the foreign minister got a positive COVID result. In summer 2022 she again felt she needed to apologise after videos of her dancing with friends, and dancing closely with a man in a nightclub went viral. She submitted to a drugs test (which also came back negative) and apologised yet again after two of her friends posted topless pictures in the official residence.

She was also forced to apologise after a Euronews investigation found that little or no work had been done to advance a new piece of legislation on rights for Finland’s indigenous Sámi people, something which Marin had promised to get done. The bill ultimately failed at the last parliamentary committee hurdle.

None of this seems to have done her any harm in terms of domestic support, but critics have been harsh on her over more serious policy issues after she recently said during a visit to Kyiv that Finland “could” have a discussion about sending ageing Hornet fighter jets to Ukraine.

After some Ukrainian media outlets latched onto this vague answer as if Marin had made a solemn promise, her political opponents at home have been trying to frame her as naive, ignorant or reckless not to have given a more concrete answer, that the Hornets were needed in Finland.

Finland’s leading newspaper Helsingin Sanomat says the issue might even cost Marin the election.

Meanwhile none of the main party leaders covered themselves with glory at a recent television debate which descended into finger pointing and shouting — something decried in the papers as uncivilised and somehow deeply “un-Finnish” as this short clip demonstrates:

The National Coalition Party is not without its policy problems as well. Long seen as the party of the comfortably well-heeled in Finland, they’ve recently had to flip-flop on cuts to student funding, and backtrack on other budget issues like how to balance the books and reduce national debt.

And the Finns Party caused a collective national gasp of horror recently when leader Riikka Purra said culture was a “luxury” item – a hard sell in a country which revels in its rich literary, musical and visual arts scene: from small town libraries to big international festivals and all points in between.

When can we expect some results – and who might win?

We should know, more or less, the results of the election by midnight Helsinki time on Sunday evening.

But that’s when the horse trading really starts.

Some polling has suggested the Finns Party could win up to 49 seats, ahead of Kokoomus and the Social Democrats, tied in second place.

If that is the case we could see a far-right lead government for the first time in Finland, a so-called black-blue government with the Finns Party, National Coalition Party, Christian Democrats and possibly Liike Nyt.

“Some parties have now declared who they will not go into government with, but nobody has made the same kind of declarations about who the who they will go into government with,” explains the University of Helsinki’s Jenni Kärimäki.

“The Social Democrats, Greens, Left Alliance and Swedish People’s Party have declared they won’t go into government with the Finns Party. But then the Centre Party says it won join any government that looks like the current government,” she adds.

If other parties don’t want to govern with the Finns Party — or if the National Coalition Party or Social Democrats find themselves in the lead even by a narrow majority — we could see a blue-red coalition instead, including the Swedish People’s Party and either Greens or Left Alliance.

In case that alliance would be too left leaning to be palatable for Kokoomus politicians and voters, the Christian Democrats under leader Sari Essayah could find themselves with a token one minister to balance the scales.

Or there could be another broad spectrum government, with Finns no strangers to so-called rainbow coalitions.

“If we assume that Keskusta doesn’t go into government, then all we have left is a rainbow coalition. We are currently running out of options and combinations, and a rainbow coalition seems like that’s the way things are going,” says Jenni Kärimäki.

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Corporate America girds for a challenging 2023 proxy season

Post By Business activist investors, Bob Iger, CEO, CEOs, CFO, CFOs, chief executive, chief financial officer, Corporate America girds for a challenging 2023 proxy season, disney, ESG, finance chief, Iger, Nelson Peltz, Peltz, proxy season, shareholder activists, shareholders, voting

Proxy season 2023 is just around the corner. And it may be a tough one for public companies.

The Conference Board’s report on the upcoming proxy season forecasts several factors that will make it tumultuous. “Big ‘A’ shareholder activism is likely to rise, due in part to the current economic environment and the implementation of the SEC’s universal proxy rule,” according to the report. Some other predicted challenges include: the overall volume of shareholder proposals will likely continue to rise, an increase in “anti-ESG proposals,” and asset managers have adopted policies that will lead to more votes against directors on “governance practices and problematic compensation packages.”

An analysis by Broadridge shows that in the 2022 proxy season, there was a decline in investor support for directors—618 directors failed to attain majority support (104 more than in 2021). And there were more shareholder proposals than at any time over the past five years.

“Corporate America has to manage investor expectations more rigorously and frequently than say 20-25 years ago,” Sandeep Dahiya, associate professor of finance at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business, recently told me. “We have hedge funds, activist shareholders, and a very diverse investor base.” Frequently, CFOs are taking the lead in terms of “crafting the strategy and communicating it,” Dahiya said.

When it comes to activist shareholders, The Walt Disney Company has already been put on the front lines. In November, former CEO Robert Iger returned to the helm, ending former CEO Bob Chapek’s tumultuous tenure. Iger was tasked with turning around the company.

In January, Nelson Peltz, a billionaire, activist investor, CEO, and founding partner of private equity firm Trian Fund Management, launched a proxy fight and announced that he would seek a board seat at Disney to try to initiate changes. But Peltz had a change of mind on Feb. 9 after Iger announced plans for a dramatic restructuring during the company’s earnings call on Feb. 8. Plans included 7,000 job cuts, $5.5 billion in cost savings, and the board would consider reinstating Disney’s dividend, which was suspended at the start of the pandemic.

My colleague Shawn Tully got the scoop on how this all played out and shares it in his latest piece, “The inside story of how Nelson Peltz got his way at Disney—and his detailed plan for a rebound.” Tully had an exclusive interview with Peltz about “his journey through the fog of proxy war.”

Tully writes: “Though Peltz hates proxy conflicts, he says they’re necessary for one overall situation: when a company he’s targeted is struggling but refuses to acknowledge that it has big problems. ‘If we can’t agree on the problem, we have to go to war,’ he told me.”

He continues: “It’s the standoff that triggered the only three proxy campaigns in Trian’s history, the salvos at H.J. Heinz, DuPont, and Procter & Gamble. In all three cases, he says, the CEOs and boards thought their companies were doing great, and showed zero interest in Trian’s proposals, though their poor numbers belied the claims that all was fine.”

You can read Tully’s complete report here.

Regarding gauging your company’s vulnerability to activist investors, “If you’re a good CEO, and a good CFO, that’s really your job,” Shane Goodwin, associate dean of graduate programs at the Cox School of Business at Southern Methodist University, once told me. “If you’re thinking about all the governance-related issues for your board, how to run your business in a profitable way, and creating value, that’s your best inoculation to any activist or any bad conversation with your shareholders, in general.”

Sheryl Estrada
[email protected]

Big deal

Crunch Time Series for CFOs: It’s Time to Get Serious About Data, a report by Deloitte, explains why creating data strategy needs to be a higher priority for finance chiefs. Deloitte’s CFO Signals survey for Q4 2022 found the top priorities for CFOs this year are cost management (52%), performance (50%), and growth (38%). Just 10% of finance chiefs surveyed named data analytics/A.I./business intelligence as a priority. According to Deloitte’s Crunch Time report: “From the top down, your finance organization should have a North Star data strategy. Where do you want to go? How can you get there? What benefits can you realize—not just in cost savings, but in new capabilities to strategically collaborate with the business? A clear strategy is a necessary bedrock for defining roles and responsibilities, determining priority levels, and establishing accountability.”

Going deeper

Regarding proxy season, Willis Towers Watson (WTW) has released its annual review of 2022’s “Say on Pay” voting. The season was highlighted by the record number of failures within the Russell 3000 since the vote on compensation programs became mandatory in 2011, according to WTW’s report. Shareholder support was marginally lower than in previous years at 89% (matching the lowest level of support recorded in 2012).

Leaderboard

Steven J. McGarry, EVP and CFO at Sallie Mae (Nasdaq: SLM), formally SLM Corporation, has entered into a retention agreement with the company. McGarry will remain an employee of Sallie Mae and continue to serve as CFO through February 2024 when he plans to retire. During this time, he will assist with the selection of the next CFO and will facilitate the transition of the role to his successor. McGarry joined Sallie Mae in 1997 as a director of investments and has served in a variety of financial roles during his more than 25 years tenure at the company. He has served as CFO for nine years. The company is conducting an extensive search to identify McGarry’s successor.

Linda Murray was named CFO at Form Bio, a computational life sciences platform. As CFO of Form Bio, Murray will lead the establishment and scaling of the financial and operating infrastructure. Before joining Form Bio, Murray served as the VP of financial planning and analysis for Cambridge Mobile Telematics. Her previous roles include serving as head of financial planning and analysis at enterprise SaaS technology companies, including BitSight Technologies and Candescent Health. Murray started her career at Morgan Stanley.

Overheard

“No, we’re not going to use it to write our standards—I would just note that.”

—U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board Chair Richard Jones told trustees of the Financial Accounting Foundation when asked how investors ingest financial reporting information these days with the use of technology like A.I., including chatbots such as ChatGPT, Thomson Reuters reported. Jones also said, “But I think it is important and that’s part of our continuous outreach with investors in understanding their ability to process data, how they’re processing data, how do we get the most important data information in our investment capital allocation decisions.”

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