Tag: Lok Sabha

Opinion: Opinion | Lok Sabha Polls Phase 2: Can NDA Maintain Its 2019 Lead? What Numbers Say

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As many as 87 seats are set to go to polls on April 26 in the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections. These seats are spread across 13 states: five each in Assam and Bihar, three each in Chhattisgarh and West Bengal, one each in Jammu & Kashmir and Tripura, 14 in Karnataka, 20 in Kerala, six in Madhya Pradesh, eight in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, and 13 in Rajasthan. Apart from these, one constituency in Manipur that voted in the previous phase will witness polling this time too in the remaining booths. Meanwhile, elections in Madhya Pradesh’s Betul have been pushed to Phase 3 after the death of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidate. 

In effect – three states, Rajasthan, Kerala and Karnataka – account for over half of the seats going to the polls on April 26. While the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) hopes to maintain – if not improve – its tally, the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc will need to make a dent in the NDA’s numbers to really gain some edge. 

Turnout In 2019

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress are contesting 70 seats each, while the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M) is in the fray in 16 in Kerala. The BSP has put up candidates in 74 constituencies, higher than even the BJP and the Congress. 

In terms of turnout, in 2014, these 87 seats recorded 67.3% polling, and in 2019, the voting percentage rose to 70.1%. The decline in turnout in Phase 1 of the elections has been a subject of intense debate, and hence, how much voting the upcoming phase will see will be monitored closely by all. 

The polling numbers will also have to be tracked not only in total but also seat-wise. Seventy-one of these 87 seats saw higher voting percentages in 2019, and of them, the incumbent party lost in 24. On the other hand, the turnout saw a decline in 17 seats, and the winning party from 2014 lost in six constituencies. 

Winning Margins Bigger For BJP

In the previous elections, the BJP won 52 seats, the Congress 18, while other parties and candidates won 17. Adjusting for allies, the NDA secured victory in 61 constituencies, the INDIA bloc in 23, while non-aligned parties got three seats. For the NDA, the winning margins were around 20% in those 61 seats, meaning that the areas are the alliance’s strongholds and a large number of swing votes will be required to sway the results any other way.

Meanwhile, the Congress’s winning margins in 18 seats in the last election were much smaller – around 10%. This means that a swing of just 5% votes in these regions can put the grand old party on the back foot. Non-aligned parties won with an even thinner margin of 5%, and these seats may see cut-throat contests this time.

Assam And Bihar Contests

Of the five seats going to polls in Assam, the BJP won four last time, and the Congress just one. The latter hopes to gain a few this year on the back of the discontent and the consequent polarisation due to the implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA). 

In Bihar’s five seats that will witness polling tomorrow, the Janata Dal (United) (JD-U) won four and the Congress merely one in the 2019 contest. The Mahagathbandhan formation is hoping to bank on the mistrust and anger that Nitish Kumar’s constant flip-flops may have caused amongst certain sections.

Can Karnataka Spring A Surprise?

Fourteen seats are going to the polls in Karnataka tomorrow. Of them, the BJP won 11 in 2019, while the remaining three were netted by the Congress, the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD-S) and an independent. Given the implementation of the ‘guarantees’ by the Siddaramaiah government since it came to power in the state last year, the Congress hopes to make significant gains this time.

The BJP, meanwhile, hopes to neutralise losses due to anti-incumbency by aligning with H.D. Deve Gowda’s JD(S), which has decent clout in Southern Karnataka. 

The Kerala Battlefront

Kerala is going to be an interesting battle. Of the 20 seats going to polls here, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) had won 19 seats in the previous Lok Sabha election, while the CPI(M) led Left Democratic Front (LDF) could bag only a single constituency. The BJP hopes to make the contest triangular this time in around five seats where it bagged a 20-30% vote share, and finally open its account in the state. High-profile candidates like Anil Antony, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, Suresh Gopi and V. Muraleedharan may help it in that endeavour, but the battle remains tough.

However, the main contest is between the UDF and the LDF. The two Communist parties and the Congress, which are friends in Delhi but foes in Kerala, have been attacking each other aggressively. While the LDF has attacked the Congress over Rahul Gandhi’s candidature from Wayanad and not Uttar Pradesh, the latter has questioned why Chief Minister Pinayari Vijayan is not behind bars. The Left has also been raising the CAA issue and the Manipur conflict to woo minorities and win a few seats.

Hat-Trick Bid In Rajasthan, Local Currents In Maharashtra

In Rajasthan, the BJP in 2019 had won all the 13 seats that are going to the polls on April 26. The party hopes to score a hat-trick in the state and win all its 25 Lok Sabha seats again. However, a resurgent Congress and the recent Jat/Rajput ire could put a spanner in the works. 

Meanwhile, in Maharashtra, of the eight seats that are poll-bound, the BJP had won three in 2019, the Shiv Sena four, and an independent candidate one. But since then, three erstwhile Sena MPs have joined the Eknath Shinde faction in recent months. The battle in Maharashtra has heated up, with the crucial question for the state and its voters being who the real Sena and the real Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) are. After the splits in both parties, while the symbols are with the Shinde and Ajit Pawar factions, the family legacy rests with Uddhav and Sharad Pawar. The contest has turned somewhat local, which is not good for any incumbent; a Presidential-style battle is usually beneficial. 

In 2019, the BJP won all the eight seats going to the polls in Uttar Pradesh, except one – Amroha – which was bagged by the BSP. This time, with Mayawati’s party not being a constituent of the INDIA bloc, the BJP hopes to win all of these eight seats. That could be possible but not easy, given that the party’s winning margins in two seats last time, Meerut and Baghpat, were just 4,700 and 23,500 votes, respectively. 

To achieve ‘Mission 370’, the BJP will need a strike rate of 83%. It could touch only 72% in the previous Lok Sabha elections. Can it raise its tally this time?

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.

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Morning Digest | Home Minister Amit Shah tells Lok Sabha that government is ready for discussion on Manipur; government approves 8.15% interest rate for PF deposits, and more

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Home Minister Amit Shah tells Lok Sabha that the government is ready for discussion

Union Home Minister Amit Shah told the Lok Sabha on July 24 that the government was ready for a discussion on Manipur on the floor of the House as the country needs to know the truth about the sensitive situation in the State.

Union government approves 8.15% interest rate for PF deposits

The Centre on July 24 accepted the recommendation of the Central Board of Trustees (CBT) of the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) to increase the interest rate of deposits in Provident Fund (PF) to 8.15%.

Dry runs of security software at new Parliament building

The security software of India’s new Parliament building is being updated. The new structure was inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 28.

Parliament monsoon session day 4 | Logjam persists in Parliament; AAP MP Sanjay Singh suspended

Home Minister Amit Shah asked the opposition on Monday to allow a debate on the Manipur issue to begin in Parliament but the deadlock persisted in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha as both sides refused to budge from their stand, with Congress and its allies insisting on a statement from Prime Minister Narendra Modi first. Relentless protests from opposition members marred proceedings in both the Houses and Aam Aadmi Party MP Sanjay Singh, one of the more vocal voices in Rajya Sabha, was suspended for the rest of the Monsoon session for repeatedly “violating” the directives of the Chair.

Red diary issue: Sacked Rajasthan Minister Gudha, BJP MLA Dilawar suspended from State Assembly for ‘unruly behaviour’

Sacked Rajasthan Minister Rajendra Gudha on Monday was suspended from the State Assembly for “unruly behaviour” after ugly scenes were witnessed in the House when he raised the issue of a red diary, claiming it held details of irregular financial transactions. BJP MLA Madan Dilawar too was suspended for the remainder of the Assembly. Earlier, Gudha was pushed and shoved by Congress MLAs after he created a ruckus over the red dairy, demanding that he be allowed to make a statement.

Supreme Court to hear plea seeking SIT or CBI probe into death of Bihar BJP leader during march

The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear on Tuesday a PIL seeking a probe by an SIT headed by a retired apex court judge or the CBI into the July 13 incident in Patna in which a BJP leader died while taking part in a protest march against the Nitish Kumar government. According to the Supreme Court website, a bench comprising Justices Surya Kant and Dipankar Datta will hear the PIL filed through lawyer Barun Kumar Sinha on July 25.

Arrest Pak ex-PM Imran: Pak election commission tells Islamabad police

The Election Commission of Pakistan on Monday directed the Islamabad police to arrest former Prime Minister Imran Khan and produce him before it on Tuesday in a case linked to contempt of the top electoral body. Irked by Khan’s persistent absence from the hearings, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) instructed the Islamabad IG to arrest the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief for his failure to appear in the contempt case.

President Murmu to visit Odisha from July 25-27

President Droupadi Murmu will embark on a three-day visit to Odisha on Tuesday, coinciding with her completing one year in office. “Murmu will visit Odisha from July 25 to 27. She begins her visit with an interaction with a group of medical students sponsored by (the) ATUT-BANDHAN family and (will) lay the foundation stone for a new building block of the Raj Bhavan, Odisha, in Bhubaneswar,” a Rashtrapati Bhavan spokesperson said. On July 26, Murmu will grace the valedictory function during the 75th-year celebrations of the High Court of Orissa in Cuttack.

Two-day Vijay Diwas event to begin on Tuesday, preparations underway

A two-day event to mark the 24th Vijay Diwas will begin here on Tuesday, commemorating India’s triumph in the 1999 Kargil War with Pakistan. Preparations are underway for the event at the War Memorial here with final touches being added. The event will be graced by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh. Singh will arrive on Wednesday to pay homage to the jawans who laid down their lives for the nation. The families of the martyred soldiers make it a point to visit the memorial each year on the occasion. Many of them have already arrived here for this year’s event.

Bengal Assembly adjourned for day after obituary references

The West Bengal Assembly was adjourned for the day on Monday after obituary references to eminent personalities who died recently. Obituary references were made to eminent Bengali writers Samaresh Majumdar and Sasthipada Chattopadhyay, former State Minister Dawa Lama and former MLAs Prabodh Purkait, Dr Tarun Adhikary. Later, Speaker Biman Bandyopadhyay convened an all-party meeting, but it was not attended by the opposition BJP and ISF. The House will take up reports of different standing committees on Tuesday and Wednesday to be followed by the question and answer session from Thursday, officials said.

IMD forecasts heavy rain in 10 Odisha districts

With the formation of a cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal on Monday, the IMD has predicted heavy rainfall very likely to occur at one or two places in 10 districts of Odisha during the next 24 hours. Under its (cyclonic circulation) influence a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region during the subsequent 24 hours, the IMD said in a Twitter post. The district for which the yellow warning (be updated) of heavy rainfall has been issued are Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Malkangiri, Koraput, Nawarangapur, Nuapada, Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Bolangir.

AAP announces nationwide protests on Manipur issue on Tuesday

The Aam Aadmi Party will Tuesday stage protests across the country against the precarious situation in Manipur, party officials said. In Delhi, the protest will be attended by top leaders of the party at Jantar Mantar, they said. Leaders of several opposition parties on Monday demonstrated in the Parliament complex demanding that Prime Minister Narendra Modi make a statement in the House on the Manipur issue.

North Korea fires ballistic missile after US submarine arrives in South Korea

North Korea fired at least one ballistic missile into its eastern sea, South Korea’s military said Tuesday, adding to a recent streak in weapons testing that is apparently in protest of the US sending major naval assets to South Korea in a show of force. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff did not immediately say where the weapon was launched from and how far it flew. The launch came hours after South Korea’s navy said a nuclear-propelled US submarine – the USS Annapolis — arrived at a port on Jeju Island. The arrival of the USS Annapolis adds to the allies’ show of force to counter North Korean nuclear threats.

China to review appointments, dismissals of officials at Tuesday meeting: state media

China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, a powerful body that enacts and amends laws when parliament is not in session, will review appointments and dismissals of officials at a meeting on Tuesday, state media reported. The announcement comes one month since Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang was last seen, with China’s government saying he was off for unspecified health reasons. The NPC committee, which meets roughly every two months to deliberate legislation and pass laws, was next expected to meet in August after concluding a scheduled meeting in June.

Jill Biden heads to Paris to help mark US return to UN educational and scientific agency

Jill Biden has represented her country at the Olympics in Tokyo, a king’s coronation in London and a royal wedding in Jordan. She gets another chance to put her ambassadorial skills to work this week when the United States formally rejoins a United Nations agency devoted to education, science and culture around the globe. Biden arrived in Paris early Monday, accompanied by her daughter, Ashley Biden, after flying overnight from Washington to join other VIPs and speak at a ceremony Tuesday at the headquarters of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. The American flag will be raised to mark the U.S. return to UNESCO membership after a five-year absence.

Delhi govt to install 500 water ATMs near slums, densely populated areas: Kejriwal

The Delhi government has planned to install 500 water ATMs to provide drinking water treated using the Reverse Osmosis (RO) process to people in slums and other such densely populated areas, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said on Monday. The Chief Minister, who inspected an RO plant and inaugurated a water ATM at Khajan Basti in the Mayapuri area, said four water ATMs have been installed and 500 are planned in the first phase. Every person will be provided with a card that will let them draw 20 litres of water per day from these ATMs free of cost, he said.

Sindhu, Prannoy keen to regain lost touch; buoyant Satwik-Chirag eyeing another title

Fresh from their Korea Open triumph, Satwiksairaj Rankireddy and Chirag Shetty will look to continue their dream run, even as the focus will be on the struggling PV Sindhu and HS Prannoy in the Japan Open Super 750 badminton tournament, beginning here on Tuesday. The 2022 Commonwealth Games-winning Indian doubles pair of Satwik-Chirag on Sunday stunned the world No. 1 pair of Fajar Alfian and Muhamad Rian Ardianto in a hard-fought final to extend their winning streak to 10 matches.

Indian men’s and women’s hockey teams aim to excel in Spain

The Indian men’s and women’s hockey teams are determined to produce their best at the 100th Anniversary Spanish Hockey Federation – International Tournament to begin on Tuesday in Terrassa, Spain. The tournament will see the Indian men’s hockey team playing against formidable rivals England, the Netherlands and host nation Spain. The women’s side will also take on England and Spain. The tournament will be particularly crucial for the Indian men as it will serve as a preparatory event for them ahead of the much-awaited Hero Asian Champions Trophy to be held in Chennai from August 3 to 12, ahead of Hangzhou Asian Games.

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Morning Digest: February 8, 2023

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Sailors assigned to Explosive Ordnance Disposal Group 2 recover a suspected Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon that was downed by the United States over the weekend over U.S. territorial waters off the coast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, U.S., February 5, 2023.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

U.S. recovers balloon debris, China protests

United States authorities have begun collecting remnants of the Chinese surveillance balloon that was shot down on Sunday, sparking a diplomatic row between Washington and Beijing. The Chinese government on Tuesday reiterated its criticism of the shooting down of the balloon, calling it an “overreaction”. The Biden administration has asserted that downing the balloon is not a violation of international law.

Turkey-Syria quake toll tops 7,800 as rescuers battle cold

Rescuers in Turkey and Syria battled bitter cold on Tuesday in a race against time to find survivors under buildings flattened by an earthquake that killed more than 7,800 people. The 7.8-magnitude quake struck on Monday as people slept, flattening thousands of structures, trapping an unknown number of people and potentially impacting millions.

Parliament logjam ends; AAP, BRS persist with Adani debate demand

Ending the four-day logjam in Parliament, most Opposition parties — barring the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) — decided to participate in the debate on the motion of thanks to the President, even in the absence of a focused debate on the Hindenburg revelations about the Adani group and its impact on LIC and SBI. Even though the Opposition publicly expressed its willingness to participate in Parliamentary proceedings, both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha failed to function in the first half of the day.

Biden aims to deliver reassurance in State of Union address

President Joe Biden is ready to offer a reassuring assessment of the United States’ condition rather than roll out flashy policy proposals as he delivers his second State of the Union address on Tuesday night, seeking to overcome pessimism in the country and concerns about his own leadership.

Zoom to shed about 1,300 jobs as pandemic-fuelled demand slows

Zoom Video Communications Inc said it would cut about 1,300 jobs, as demand for the company’s video conferencing services slows with the waning of the pandemic, and take a related charge of up to $68 million. While announcing the layoffs, which will hit nearly 15% of its workforce, Chief Executive Officer Eric Yuan said he would take a pay cut of 98% for the coming fiscal year and forego his bonus.

Myanmar’s civil war gets too close to India’s border for comfort 

The civil war in Myanmar is getting too close to the Indian border for comfort and could heighten the refugee problem, security officials in the border States of Manipur and Mizoram said. In January, local organisations in Mizoram’s Champhai district had flagged the impact of bombing by Myanmar’s Armed Forces “perilously close” to the border between the two countries. The air raids were on camps of ethnic armed groups resisting the Myanmar junta. 

No proposal to bring quota for transgender persons: Government in LS

There is no proposal to bring in reservations for transgender persons in education or employment, according to the Social Justice Ministry’s response to a question in the Lok Sabha. Minister of State for Social Justice A. Narayanaswamy said that the Ministry had no information on the number of trans people employed in the government and private sector, adding that so far, just 10,635 people had registered on the national portal.

AgustaWestland chopper scam | SC denies bail to alleged middleman Christian Michel James

The Supreme Court denied bail to Christian Michel James, an alleged middlemen in AgustaWestland chopper scam cases, who is being probed by both the CBI and the Enforcement Directorate. A bench of Chief Justice D.Y. Chandrachud and Justices P.S. Narasimha and J.B. Pardiwala said that argument of Mr. James that he be released on bail on the ground that he has completed half of maximum sentence in the cases cannot be accepted.

Centre launches Periyar river conservation project

In a significant development, the Central government has launched a programme for conserving the 244-km-long Periyar river in Kerala. The waterbody is among six rivers across the country that are being covered under the National River Conservation Plan. The other rivers are Barak, Mahanadi, Narmada, Godavari and Kaveri. According to officials, the project is being implemented in association with the State Forest department, Periyar Tiger Reserve (PTR) and Periyar foundation.

Interests of poor at centre of every budget presented by BJP government: PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted that interests of the poor have been at the centre of every Budget presented by his government. Addressing the first BJP parliamentary party meeting after the Union Budget was presented on February 1, he said no one is calling it a chunavi Budget (budget influenced by polls) even though it was the last full-fledged one before the next Lok Sabha polls. In his address, the Prime Minister also spoke about the devastating earthquake which has hit Turkey and Syria and noted that India is providing all possible assistance.

Indian-American student named ‘world’s brightest’ by Johns Hopkins for second consecutive year

Indian-American schoolgirl Natasha Perianayagam was named in the “world’s brightest” students list for the second consecutive year by the U.S.-based Johns Hopkins Center For Talented Youth, based on the results of above-grade-level tests of over 15,000 students across 76 countries. Her results in the verbal and quantitative sections levelled with the 90th percentile of advanced Grade 8 performance, which catapulted her into the honours list that year.

SC dismisses Rana Ayyub’s plea challenging U.P. special court summons in money laundering case

The Supreme Court dismissed a writ petition filed by journalist Rana Ayyub challenging a summons order issued to her by a Special Court in Uttar Pradesh on a complaint filed by the Enforcement Directorate under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act. The court said Ms. Ayyub was free to raise the question of territorial jurisdiction before the Special Court.

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