Can ‘earthquake diplomacy’ help NATO chances for Sweden and Finland?

In the hours after two massive earthquakes hit southern Turkey, the well-oiled wheels of humanitarian assistance started turning in Sweden and Finland. 

The Nordic nations are locked in something of a stalemate with Ankara over their NATO memberships — as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan holds up the process, demanding that Stockholm and Helsinki meet strict criteria before moving forward with ratification. 

So could ‘earthquake diplomacy’ soften Turkey’s stance towards the NATO applicants? 

It’s worked before in the region. 

Back in 1999 a powerful quake hit near the Turkish city of İzmit, and the Greeks were among the first to respond with aid, despite decades of enmity between the two neighbours. A few months later when a magnitude 6.0 earthquake hit Athens, the Turks reciprocated with help. 

The show of neighbourly good faith led to Greece dropping its objections on Turkey becoming an EU candidate country — something policy makers in Finland and Sweden will be hoping to see repeated. 

What aid have Sweden and Finland given?

The Swedes have so far given €3.3 million in humanitarian support, and sent more than 50 search and rescue experts, search dogs, and medical teams to Turkey. 

“The core support that Sweden is already contributing makes a big difference on the ground in Türkiye and Syria,” said Sweden’s Minister for International Development Cooperation Johan Forssell

Forssell said his government acted “swiftly and resolutely” but Dr Paul Levin at Stockholm University’s Institute for Turkish Studies said they could have moved faster.

“Sweden was late providing aid.” 

“I don’t think that’s a lack of trying or will, but that Sweden is not good at swift disaster response,” he told Euronews, citing critical Royal Commissions into official responses to the 2004 Asia tsunami, and COVID-19 pandemic. 

“I think we are unfortunately not good at disaster response,” Levin said.   

On the EU level, Sweden — which currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Council —  convened the bloc’s Integrated Political Crisis Response mechanism last week, to coordinate all EU support for both Turkey and Syria at political level.

Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson and Ursula von der Leyen also announced they’ll organise an international donor conference for Turkey and Syria in March.

In Finland, the government response has been fairly fast and robust, and loudly telegraphed to Ankara.  

Helsinki provided heated emergency accommodation, including tents and stoves, for 3,000 people; and coordinated delivery of supplies through NATO. 

The Finns have also sent search and rescue experts, and also contribute multilaterally through the UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund, which has so far given $50 million (€46.65 million).  

“Tens of thousands of people have died and the destruction is very extensive. The need for emergency accommodation in the area hit by the earthquake is huge,” said Finland’s Interior Minister Krista Mikkonen

“By sending material assistance, Finland aims to help people meet their basic needs. It is important that we provide help to the earthquake area as soon as possible.” 

What’s the situation in Ankara?

Whether Turkey’s government has the bandwidth to handle NATO applications during a time of unprecedented crisis is debatable. 

With a general election still scheduled for 14 May, Erdoğan had been using Sweden (and to a lesser extent, Finland) as a political straw man, painting the country as a place that harboured terrorists and as a risk to Turkey’s national security. 

If the election is somehow postponed, Erdogan might still need a bogeyman as a distraction to mounting political problems at home, a tactic that may not work so well a second time.  

“The NATO news in Finland has not fully taken into account how this massive human catastrophe has changed the Turkish political landscape and discussion,” explained Ozan Yanar, a Finnish politician who was born in Turkey, and served as a Greens MP from 2015-2019.

“Right now all the Turkish focus is on these earthquakes, and it will stay on earthquakes for a very long time,” Yanar told Euronews. 

Yanar said he thinks it unlikely any Turkish politician would try to shift the focus away from any official failings in earthquake preparedness or response, as they would find themselves “in the midst of huge political criticism.” 

“People are angry Turkey was not ready for this, and the state actions after the earthquakes have been very slow. People would be harshly disappointed and criticise the regime if they would start to speak about NATO, which is not the main topic in Turkey right now,” said Yanar, who is running for parliament again in Finland’s spring elections. 

What are the chances of 1999-style earthquake diplomacy?

Paul Levin from Stockholm University thinks the chances are low that anything Sweden and Finland do to help with humanitarian aid will move the needle for Turkey on ratifying NATO membership. 

“I just dont see any real impact in terms of public relations on the Turkish side,” he said bluntly, describing a country currently in turmoil, with a “messy” political situation. 

Quite the opposite: “If Erdogan sees he has been hurt by this, and sees he won’t be able to win the election, he has a strong incentive to pospone it,” said Levin. 

“The more desperate he becomes politically, the more appealing those kind of tactics will be. I think he will do just about anything to get re-elected.”

That could mean continuing to demonise Stockholm in particular, for failing to deport Kurds that Turkey says are terror suspects. 

Ankara wants Finland and Sweden to deport some 130 “terrorists” before it will approve their bids to join NATO. Erdogan declared in January that the Nordic countries must “hand over your terrorists,” with Sweden saying Turkey had made demands that could not — and would not — be met. 

“Maybe it’s a bit early to speculate what will happen, but so far I have not seen any of the positive outcomes of diplomacy,” said Levin.



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Rescuers push to find survivors of ‘disaster of the century’ as toll nears 21,000 in Turkey and Syria

Rescue workers made a final push Thursday to find survivors of the earthquake in Turkey and Syria that rendered many communities unrecognizable to their inhabitants and led the Turkish president to declare it “the disaster of the century.” The death toll topped 20,000.

The earthquake affected an area that is home to 13.5 million people in Turkey and an unknown number in Syria and stretches farther than the distance from London to Paris or Boston to Philadelphia. Even with an army of people taking part in the rescue effort, crews had to pick and choose where to help.

The scene from the air showed the scope of devastation, with entire neighborhoods of high-rises reduced to twisted metal, pulverized concrete and exposed wires.

In Adiyaman, Associated Press journalists saw someone plead with rescuers to look through the rubble of a building where relatives were trapped. They refused, saying no one was alive there and that they had to prioritize areas with possible survivors.

A man who gave his name only as Ahmet out of fear of government retribution later asked the AP: “How can I go home and sleep? My brother is there. He may still be alive.”

The death toll from Monday’s 7.8 magnitude catastrophe rose to nearly 21,000, eclipsing the more than 18,400 who died in the 2011 earthquake off Fukushima, Japan, that triggered a tsunami and the estimated 18,000 people who died in a temblor near the Turkish capital, Istanbul, in 1999.

The new figure, which is certain to rise, included over 17,600 people in Turkey and more than 3,300 in civil war-torn Syria. Tens of thousands were also injured.

Even though experts say people could survive for a week or more, the chances of finding survivors in the freezing temperatures were dimming. As emergency crews and panicked relatives dug through the rubble — and occasionally found people alive — the focus began to shift to demolishing dangerously unstable structures.

The DHA news agency broadcast the rescue of a 10-year-old in Antakya. The agency said medics had to amputate an arm to free her. A 17-year-old girl emerged alive in Adıyaman, and a 20-year-old was found in Kahramanmaras by rescuers who shouted “God is great.”

In Nurdagi, a city of around 40,000 nestled between snowy mountains some 35 miles (56 kilometers) from the quake’s epicenter, vast swaths of the city were leveled, with scarcely a building unaffected. Even those that did not collapse were heavily damaged, making them unsafe.

Throngs of onlookers, mostly family members of people trapped inside, watched as heavy machines ripped at one building that had collapsed, its floors pancaked together with little more than a few inches in between.

Mehmet Yilmaz, 67, watched from a distance as bulldozers and other demolition equipment began to bring down what remained of the building where six of his family members had been trapped, including four children.

He estimated that about 80 people were still beneath the rubble and doubted that anyone would be found alive.

“There’s no hope. We can’t give up our hope in God, but they entered the building with listening devices and dogs, and there was nothing,” Yilmaz said.

Mehmet Nasir Dusan, 67, sat watching as the remnants of the nine-story building were brought down in billowing clouds of dust. He said he held no hope of reuniting with his five family members trapped under the debris.

Still, he said, recovering their bodies would bring some small comfort.

“We’re not leaving this site until we can recover their bodies, even if it takes 10 days,” Dusan said. “My family is destroyed now.”

In Kahramanmaras, the city closest to the epicenter, a sports hall the size of a basketball court served as a makeshift morgue to accommodate and identify bodies.

On the floor lay dozens of bodies wrapped in blankets or black shrouds. At least one appeared to be that of a 5- or 6-year-old.

At the entrance, a man wept over a black body bag that lay next to another in the bed of a small truck. “I’m 70 years old. God should have taken me, not my son,” he cried.

Workers continued to conduct rescue operations in Kahramanmaras, but it was clear that many who were trapped in collapsed buildings had already died. One rescue worker was heard saying that his psychological state was declining and that the smell of death was becoming too much to bear.

In northwestern Syria, the first U.N. aid trucks since the quake to enter the rebel-controlled area from Turkey arrived, underscoring the difficulty of getting help to people there. In the Turkish city of Antakya, dozens scrambled for aid in front of a truck distributing children’s coats and other supplies.

One survivor, Ahmet Tokgoz, called for the government to evacuate people from the region. Many of those who have lost their homes found shelter in tents, stadiums and other temporary accommodation, but others have slept outdoors.

“Especially in this cold, it is not possible to live here,” he said. “If people haven’t died from being stuck under the rubble, they’ll die from the cold.”

The winter weather and damage to roads and airports have hampered the response. Some in Turkey have complained that the government was slow to respond — a perception that could hurt Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a time when he faces a tough battle for reelection in May.

“As you know, the earthquake hit an area of 500-kilometer (311-mile) diameter where 13.5 million of our people live, and that made our job difficult,” Erdogan said Thursday.

In the Turkish town of Elbistan, rescuers stood atop the rubble from a collapsed home and pulled out an elderly woman.

Rescue teams urged quiet in the hopes of hearing stifled pleas for help, and the Syrian paramedic group known as the White Helmets noted that “every second could mean saving a life.”

But more and more often, the teams pulled out dead bodies. In Antakya, more than 100 bodies were awaiting identification in a makeshift morgue outside a hospital.

With the chances of finding people alive dwindling, crews in some places began demolishing buildings. Authorities called off search-and-rescue operations in the cities of Kilis and Sanliurfa, where destruction was not as severe as in some other areas.

Across the border in Syria, assistance trickled in. The U.N. is authorized to deliver aid through only one border crossing, and road damage has prevented that thus far. U.N. officials pleaded for humanitarian concerns to take precedence over wartime politics.

It wasn’t clear how many people were still unaccounted for in both countries.

Turkey’s disaster-management agency said more than 110,000 rescue personnel were now taking part in the effort and more than 5,500 vehicles, including tractors, cranes, bulldozers and excavators had been shipped. The Foreign Ministry said 95 countries have offered help.

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Hope fading as deaths in Turkey, Syria quake near 12,000; Turkish leader acknowledges ‘shortcomings’ in quake response

The President of Turkey on Tuesday acknowledged “shortcomings” in his country’s response to the world’s deadliest earthquake in more than a decade as hope dwindled that more survivors would emerge from the rubble of thousands of toppled buildings.

With the confirmed death toll approaching 12,000, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited the especially hard-hit Hatay province, where more than 3,300 people died and entire neighborhoods were destroyed. Residents there have criticized the government’s efforts, saying rescuers were slow to arrive.

Mr. Erdogan, who faces a tough battle for reelection in May, reacted to the mounting frustration by acknowledging problems with the emergency response to Monday’s 7.8 magnitude quake but said the winter weather had been a factor. The earthquake also destroyed the runway in Hatay’s airport, further disrupting the response.

“It is not possible to be prepared for such a disaster,” Mr. Erdogan said. “We will not leave any of our citizens uncared for.” He also hit back at critics, saying “dishonorable people” were spreading “lies and slander” about the government’s actions.

Turkish authorities said they were targeting disinformation, and an internet monitoring group said access to Twitter was restricted despite it being used by survivors to alert rescuers.

Meanwhile, rescue teams in Turkey and Syria searched for signs of life in the rubble. Teams from more than two dozen countries have joined tens of thousands of local emergency personnel in the effort. But the scale of destruction from the quake and its powerful aftershocks was so immense and spread over such a wide area that many people were still awaiting help.

Experts said the survival window for those trapped under the rubble or otherwise unable to obtain basic necessities was closing rapidly. At the same time, they said it was too soon to abandon hope.

“The first 72 hours are considered to be critical,” said Steven Godby, a natural hazards expert at Nottingham Trent University in England. “The survival ratio on average within 24 hours is 74%, after 72 hours it is 22% and by the fifth day it is 6%.”

Rescuers at times used excavators or picked gingerly through debris. With thousands of buildings destroyed, it was not clear how many people might still be in the rubble.

In the Turkish city of Malatya, bodies were placed side by side on the ground and covered in blankets while rescuers waited for vehicles to pick them up, according to former journalist Ozel Pikal, who said he saw eight bodies pulled from the ruins of a building.

Mr. Pikal, who took part in the rescue efforts, said he thinks at least some of the victims froze to death as temperatures dipped to minus 6 degrees Celsius (21 Fahrenheit).

“As of today, there is no hope left in Malatya,” Mr. Pikal said by telephone. “No one is coming out alive from the rubble.”

Road closures and damage in the region made it hard to access all the areas that need help, he said, and there was a shortage of rescuers where he was.

“Our hands cannot pick up anything because of the cold,” Mr. Pikal said. “Work machines are needed.”

The region was already beset by more than a decade of civil war in Syria. Millions have been displaced within Syria itself and millions more have sought refuge in Turkey.

Turkey’s president said the country’s death toll passed 9,000. The Syrian Health Ministry said the death toll in government-held areas climbed past 1,200. At least 1,600 people have died in the rebel-held northwest, according to the volunteer first responders known as the White Helmets.

That brought the overall total to nearly 12,000. Tens of thousands more are injured.

Stories of rescues continued to provide hope that some people still trapped might be found alive. A crying newborn still connected by the umbilical cord to her deceased mother was rescued Monday in Syria. In Turkey’s Kahramanmaras, rescuers pulled a 3-year-old boy from the rubble, and rescuers sent by the Israeli military saved a 2-year-old boy.

But David Alexander, a professor of emergency planning and management at University College London, said data from past earthquakes suggested the likelihood of survival was now slim, particularly for individuals who suffered serious injuries.

“Statistically, today is the day when we’re going to stop finding people,” he said. “That doesn’t mean we should stop searching.”

Mr. Alexander cautioned that the final death toll may not be known for weeks because of the sheer amount of rubble.

The last time an earthquake killed so many people was 2015, when 8,800 died in a 7.8 magnitude quake in Nepal. A 2011 earthquake in Japan triggered a tsunami, killing nearly 20,000 people.

Many of those who survived the earthquake lost their homes and were forced to sleep in cars, government shelters or outdoors amid rain and snowfall in some areas.

“We don’t have a tent, we don’t have a heating stove, we don’t have anything. Our children are in bad shape,” Aysan Kurt, 27, said. “We did not die from hunger or the earthquake, but we will die freezing from the cold.”

Some families began mourning their dead. In the Turkish city of Gaziantep, relatives who rushed to Kahramanmaras to rescue 21-year-old Mustafa Sonmez instead buried him Wednesday.

“May God have mercy on those who died. I wish patience for those who remain alive,” said relative Mustafa Caymaz.

The disaster comes at a sensitive time for Erdogan, who faces an economic downturn and high inflation. Perceptions that his government mismanaged the crisis could hurt his standing. He said the government would distribute 10,000 Turkish lira ($532) to affected families.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of Turkey’s main opposition party, blamed the devastation on Erdogan’s two-decade rule, saying he had not prepared the country for a disaster and accusing him of misspending funds.

In their effort to crack down on disinformation related to the earthquake response, police said they had detained 18 people and identified more than 200 social media accounts suspected of “spreading fear and panic.”

Global internet monitor NetBlocks said multiple internet providers restricted access to Twitter in Turkey. Trapped survivors have used Twitter to alert rescuers and loved ones, while others have taken to the social network to criticize the government’s response.

Turkey’s official Anadolu news agency said a government official held a video conference with a Twitter official to remind him of the company’s responsibilities on disinformation and obligations under a strict new social media law.

“We are reaching out to understand more,” Twitter CEO Elon Musk tweeted.

The government has periodically restricted access to social media during national emergencies and terror attacks, citing national security.

In Syria, aid efforts have been hampered by the ongoing war and the isolation of the rebel-held region along the border, which is surrounded by Russia-backed government forces. Syria itself is an international pariah under Western sanctions linked to the war.

Ahmad Idris, a Syrian now living in Saraqib after being displaced by the war, cried in agony as he looked at the bodies of 25 of his family members.

“We came here on the basis of finding a safe shelter for us and our children,” he said. “But in the end, look how fate has caught up to us here.”

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Morning Digest: February 8, 2023

Sailors assigned to Explosive Ordnance Disposal Group 2 recover a suspected Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon that was downed by the United States over the weekend over U.S. territorial waters off the coast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, U.S., February 5, 2023.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

U.S. recovers balloon debris, China protests

United States authorities have begun collecting remnants of the Chinese surveillance balloon that was shot down on Sunday, sparking a diplomatic row between Washington and Beijing. The Chinese government on Tuesday reiterated its criticism of the shooting down of the balloon, calling it an “overreaction”. The Biden administration has asserted that downing the balloon is not a violation of international law.

Turkey-Syria quake toll tops 7,800 as rescuers battle cold

Rescuers in Turkey and Syria battled bitter cold on Tuesday in a race against time to find survivors under buildings flattened by an earthquake that killed more than 7,800 people. The 7.8-magnitude quake struck on Monday as people slept, flattening thousands of structures, trapping an unknown number of people and potentially impacting millions.

Parliament logjam ends; AAP, BRS persist with Adani debate demand

Ending the four-day logjam in Parliament, most Opposition parties — barring the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) — decided to participate in the debate on the motion of thanks to the President, even in the absence of a focused debate on the Hindenburg revelations about the Adani group and its impact on LIC and SBI. Even though the Opposition publicly expressed its willingness to participate in Parliamentary proceedings, both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha failed to function in the first half of the day.

Biden aims to deliver reassurance in State of Union address

President Joe Biden is ready to offer a reassuring assessment of the United States’ condition rather than roll out flashy policy proposals as he delivers his second State of the Union address on Tuesday night, seeking to overcome pessimism in the country and concerns about his own leadership.

Zoom to shed about 1,300 jobs as pandemic-fuelled demand slows

Zoom Video Communications Inc said it would cut about 1,300 jobs, as demand for the company’s video conferencing services slows with the waning of the pandemic, and take a related charge of up to $68 million. While announcing the layoffs, which will hit nearly 15% of its workforce, Chief Executive Officer Eric Yuan said he would take a pay cut of 98% for the coming fiscal year and forego his bonus.

Myanmar’s civil war gets too close to India’s border for comfort 

The civil war in Myanmar is getting too close to the Indian border for comfort and could heighten the refugee problem, security officials in the border States of Manipur and Mizoram said. In January, local organisations in Mizoram’s Champhai district had flagged the impact of bombing by Myanmar’s Armed Forces “perilously close” to the border between the two countries. The air raids were on camps of ethnic armed groups resisting the Myanmar junta. 

No proposal to bring quota for transgender persons: Government in LS

There is no proposal to bring in reservations for transgender persons in education or employment, according to the Social Justice Ministry’s response to a question in the Lok Sabha. Minister of State for Social Justice A. Narayanaswamy said that the Ministry had no information on the number of trans people employed in the government and private sector, adding that so far, just 10,635 people had registered on the national portal.

AgustaWestland chopper scam | SC denies bail to alleged middleman Christian Michel James

The Supreme Court denied bail to Christian Michel James, an alleged middlemen in AgustaWestland chopper scam cases, who is being probed by both the CBI and the Enforcement Directorate. A bench of Chief Justice D.Y. Chandrachud and Justices P.S. Narasimha and J.B. Pardiwala said that argument of Mr. James that he be released on bail on the ground that he has completed half of maximum sentence in the cases cannot be accepted.

Centre launches Periyar river conservation project

In a significant development, the Central government has launched a programme for conserving the 244-km-long Periyar river in Kerala. The waterbody is among six rivers across the country that are being covered under the National River Conservation Plan. The other rivers are Barak, Mahanadi, Narmada, Godavari and Kaveri. According to officials, the project is being implemented in association with the State Forest department, Periyar Tiger Reserve (PTR) and Periyar foundation.

Interests of poor at centre of every budget presented by BJP government: PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted that interests of the poor have been at the centre of every Budget presented by his government. Addressing the first BJP parliamentary party meeting after the Union Budget was presented on February 1, he said no one is calling it a chunavi Budget (budget influenced by polls) even though it was the last full-fledged one before the next Lok Sabha polls. In his address, the Prime Minister also spoke about the devastating earthquake which has hit Turkey and Syria and noted that India is providing all possible assistance.

Indian-American student named ‘world’s brightest’ by Johns Hopkins for second consecutive year

Indian-American schoolgirl Natasha Perianayagam was named in the “world’s brightest” students list for the second consecutive year by the U.S.-based Johns Hopkins Center For Talented Youth, based on the results of above-grade-level tests of over 15,000 students across 76 countries. Her results in the verbal and quantitative sections levelled with the 90th percentile of advanced Grade 8 performance, which catapulted her into the honours list that year.

SC dismisses Rana Ayyub’s plea challenging U.P. special court summons in money laundering case

The Supreme Court dismissed a writ petition filed by journalist Rana Ayyub challenging a summons order issued to her by a Special Court in Uttar Pradesh on a complaint filed by the Enforcement Directorate under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act. The court said Ms. Ayyub was free to raise the question of territorial jurisdiction before the Special Court.

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