polling – Zittrex Store

As many as 87 seats are set to go to polls on April 26 in the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections. These seats are spread across 13 states: five each in Assam and Bihar, three each in Chhattisgarh and West Bengal, one each in Jammu & Kashmir and Tripura, 14 in Karnataka, 20 in Kerala, six in Madhya Pradesh, eight in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, and 13 in Rajasthan. Apart from these, one constituency in Manipur that voted in the previous phase will witness polling this time too in the remaining booths. Meanwhile, elections in Madhya Pradesh’s Betul have been pushed to Phase 3 after the death of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidate.

In effect – three states, Rajasthan, Kerala and Karnataka – account for over half of the seats going to the polls on April 26. While the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) hopes to maintain – if not improve – its tally, the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc will need to make a dent in the NDA’s numbers to really gain some edge.

Turnout In 2019

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress are contesting 70 seats each, while the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M) is in the fray in 16 in Kerala. The BSP has put up candidates in 74 constituencies, higher than even the BJP and the Congress.

In terms of turnout, in 2014, these 87 seats recorded 67.3% polling, and in 2019, the voting percentage rose to 70.1%. The decline in turnout in Phase 1 of the elections has been a subject of intense debate, and hence, how much voting the upcoming phase will see will be monitored closely by all.

The polling numbers will also have to be tracked not only in total but also seat-wise. Seventy-one of these 87 seats saw higher voting percentages in 2019, and of them, the incumbent party lost in 24. On the other hand, the turnout saw a decline in 17 seats, and the winning party from 2014 lost in six constituencies.

Winning Margins Bigger For BJP

In the previous elections, the BJP won 52 seats, the Congress 18, while other parties and candidates won 17. Adjusting for allies, the NDA secured victory in 61 constituencies, the INDIA bloc in 23, while non-aligned parties got three seats. For the NDA, the winning margins were around 20% in those 61 seats, meaning that the areas are the alliance’s strongholds and a large number of swing votes will be required to sway the results any other way.

Meanwhile, the Congress’s winning margins in 18 seats in the last election were much smaller – around 10%. This means that a swing of just 5% votes in these regions can put the grand old party on the back foot. Non-aligned parties won with an even thinner margin of 5%, and these seats may see cut-throat contests this time.

Assam And Bihar Contests

Of the five seats going to polls in Assam, the BJP won four last time, and the Congress just one. The latter hopes to gain a few this year on the back of the discontent and the consequent polarisation due to the implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA).

In Bihar’s five seats that will witness polling tomorrow, the Janata Dal (United) (JD-U) won four and the Congress merely one in the 2019 contest. The Mahagathbandhan formation is hoping to bank on the mistrust and anger that Nitish Kumar’s constant flip-flops may have caused amongst certain sections.

Can Karnataka Spring A Surprise?

Fourteen seats are going to the polls in Karnataka tomorrow. Of them, the BJP won 11 in 2019, while the remaining three were netted by the Congress, the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD-S) and an independent. Given the implementation of the ‘guarantees’ by the Siddaramaiah government since it came to power in the state last year, the Congress hopes to make significant gains this time.

The BJP, meanwhile, hopes to neutralise losses due to anti-incumbency by aligning with H.D. Deve Gowda’s JD(S), which has decent clout in Southern Karnataka.

The Kerala Battlefront

Kerala is going to be an interesting battle. Of the 20 seats going to polls here, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) had won 19 seats in the previous Lok Sabha election, while the CPI(M) led Left Democratic Front (LDF) could bag only a single constituency. The BJP hopes to make the contest triangular this time in around five seats where it bagged a 20-30% vote share, and finally open its account in the state. High-profile candidates like Anil Antony, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, Suresh Gopi and V. Muraleedharan may help it in that endeavour, but the battle remains tough.

However, the main contest is between the UDF and the LDF. The two Communist parties and the Congress, which are friends in Delhi but foes in Kerala, have been attacking each other aggressively. While the LDF has attacked the Congress over Rahul Gandhi’s candidature from Wayanad and not Uttar Pradesh, the latter has questioned why Chief Minister Pinayari Vijayan is not behind bars. The Left has also been raising the CAA issue and the Manipur conflict to woo minorities and win a few seats.

Hat-Trick Bid In Rajasthan, Local Currents In Maharashtra

In Rajasthan, the BJP in 2019 had won all the 13 seats that are going to the polls on April 26. The party hopes to score a hat-trick in the state and win all its 25 Lok Sabha seats again. However, a resurgent Congress and the recent Jat/Rajput ire could put a spanner in the works.

Meanwhile, in Maharashtra, of the eight seats that are poll-bound, the BJP had won three in 2019, the Shiv Sena four, and an independent candidate one. But since then, three erstwhile Sena MPs have joined the Eknath Shinde faction in recent months. The battle in Maharashtra has heated up, with the crucial question for the state and its voters being who the real Sena and the real Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) are. After the splits in both parties, while the symbols are with the Shinde and Ajit Pawar factions, the family legacy rests with Uddhav and Sharad Pawar. The contest has turned somewhat local, which is not good for any incumbent; a Presidential-style battle is usually beneficial.

In 2019, the BJP won all the eight seats going to the polls in Uttar Pradesh, except one – Amroha – which was bagged by the BSP. This time, with Mayawati’s party not being a constituent of the INDIA bloc, the BJP hopes to win all of these eight seats. That could be possible but not easy, given that the party’s winning margins in two seats last time, Meerut and Baghpat, were just 4,700 and 23,500 votes, respectively.

To achieve ‘Mission 370’, the BJP will need a strike rate of 83%. It could touch only 72% in the previous Lok Sabha elections. Can it raise its tally this time?

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.

Source link

#Opinion #Opinion #Lok #Sabha #Polls #Phase #NDA #Maintain #Lead #Numbers

A new poll from CNN and polling firm SSRS suggests that support for Donald Trump may be “softening” a little bit following his indictment and arrest on federal charges of mishandling top-secret documents, but that he remains the top choice for Republican primary voters, who have repeatedly shown their willingness to overlook a little light treason.

CNN says that while Trump is still leading the rest of the Republican primary field “by a large margin,”

the poll suggests that his support has declined, as have positive views of him among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Nearly a quarter now say they would not consider backing his candidacy under any circumstances. The survey also finds that those GOP-aligned voters not currently backing his 2024 bid have different views on his indictment and behavior than those in his corner.

Still, there’s little sign that Republican-aligned voters who aren’t backing Trump are consolidating behind any one of his rivals. Nor are they unified around wanting Trump out of the race entirely, or in feeling that his primary opponents ought to call him out for his alleged actions in this case.

Translation: Republican-ish folks not already on the MAGA bus aren’t sure they want to hop on, but they aren’t crazy about their other options and are currently standing around hoping maybe Ronald Reagan might be reanimated so they could get behind him before they end up going for Trump or staying home.

But those already on the crazy train are loving the ride and wouldn’t dream of going anywhere else, are you kidding? They’ll love Trump even more if he’s convicted, because that would just prove how much he scares the Deep State.

The poll shows that “47% of Republicans and Republican-leaning registered voters” pick Trump first among the announced primary candidates, which is down from 53 percent in May’s CNN poll. But none of the other Rs are anywhere close, either:

Support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis held steady at 26% in the latest poll, with former Vice President Mike Pence at 9%, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 5%, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott at 4%, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 3% and the remaining candidates at 1% or less.

The other notable changes were a 10-point slide in Trump’s “favorability” rating among Pubs and Pub-leaning voters, from 77 percent in May to 67 percent in the new poll. There was also an uptick among Rs and R-leans (Arlenes?) who said they would never ever ever support him, no not ever (unless they change their minds) from 16 percent in May to 23 percent now. This is your cue to sing “What, never? No, never! What, never? Hardly ever!” from HMS Pinafore, and to wait to see where that number goes in the next few months. Trump’s overall favorability rating is at 33 percent, which is also where Joe Biden’s is, and if that isn’t enough to drive you to drinkin’, you’d best find yourself a Hot Rod Lincoln.

Also, for a brief chortle, CNN adds that

At the same time, there has been a similar increase in the share saying they would not back DeSantis under any circumstances (up 6 points to 21%), while the shares ruling out other top candidates have held roughly steady.

None of this necessarily means that Trump is any danger in the GOP primary anyway, since a “54% majority of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say that Trump’s conduct doesn’t matter much to them as they consider his candidacy,” because they think a president’s “effectiveness” is more important to them, although we suspect “effectiveness” in this case measures whether they believe Trump still hates the same people they hate.

For the most part, Rs and R-leaners would prefer other Republicans not make too big a fuss about Trump’s little boxes problem, unless it’s to yell at the DOJ and maybe whine about Hunter Biden:

Just 12% say that in responding to the indictment, other Republican candidates for the nomination should focus on publicly condemning Trump’s alleged actions in this case, with 42% saying candidates should do more to publicly condemn the government’s prosecution of Trump, and 45% that they shouldn’t take a stand either way. Even those who do not currently back Trump for the nomination mostly want to see other candidates remain quiet on the indictment (54% say so), with 21% calling for Trump’s rivals to condemn his actions and 25% saying they should condemn the prosecution.

Our analysis is that most Republicans and leaners agree that pollsters should move on to questions that aren’t about the indictment, because they have a vague sense that normies may have problems with it, the fools. Only 26 percent of the faithful and almost-faithful said Trump should drop out of the campaign, and another 16 percent added that well, OK, if he were convicted, he should drop out then. Otherwise, they’re apparently ready for Trump to report to jail and then pardon himself as soon as he’s sworn in, and then the Reaping of the Unfaithful can begin. (We really do expect future polls to ask whether Rs support him governing from prison when he wins, no not if, how dare you?)

Outside the Republican bubble, normal Americans seem to think a former president being accused of federal crimes is bad. Among all Americans, 59 percent say Trump should end his campaign; an additional 11 percent say he should drop out if convicted. That goes to a whopping 85 percent when Republicans and leaners are taken out of the survey. More numbers? Why not?

Most US adults, 55%, say that Trump acted illegally in the situation involving these classified documents, with 30% saying that he acted unethically but not illegally, and just 15% that he did nothing wrong. The partisan divide in views of Trump’s actions has widened since earlier this year. Compared with a January survey, more Democrats (up 10 points to 89%) and independents (up 7 points to 59%) now say they believe Trump acted illegally, but the share of Republicans who feel that way has dropped (down 7 points to 18%).

Oh, come and see the polarization, what a shame, etc.

There’s more, but we are disappointed that CNN and SSRS did not ask respondents if they thought their mental health would be significantly better if Trump had never been born, which seems like a gap in the data.

[CNN / CNN/SSRS poll (PDF file) / Image generated using Stable Diffusion AI 2.1 and tweaked in photoshoop. Thanks also to the gentleman we met at the crossroads at midnight who volunteered his help.]

Yr Wonkette is funded entirely by reader donations. If you can, please give $5 or $10 monthly to help us keep bringing you all the numbers, then making fun of them.

Do your Amazon shopping through this link, because reasons.

Source link

#Donald #Trump #Support #Slipping #Indictment #MAGAs #Love #Saviour

Zittrex Store

Cart