Tag: polls

Opinion: Opinion | Lok Sabha Polls Phase 2: Can NDA Maintain Its 2019 Lead? What Numbers Say

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As many as 87 seats are set to go to polls on April 26 in the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections. These seats are spread across 13 states: five each in Assam and Bihar, three each in Chhattisgarh and West Bengal, one each in Jammu & Kashmir and Tripura, 14 in Karnataka, 20 in Kerala, six in Madhya Pradesh, eight in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, and 13 in Rajasthan. Apart from these, one constituency in Manipur that voted in the previous phase will witness polling this time too in the remaining booths. Meanwhile, elections in Madhya Pradesh’s Betul have been pushed to Phase 3 after the death of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidate. 

In effect – three states, Rajasthan, Kerala and Karnataka – account for over half of the seats going to the polls on April 26. While the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) hopes to maintain – if not improve – its tally, the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc will need to make a dent in the NDA’s numbers to really gain some edge. 

Turnout In 2019

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress are contesting 70 seats each, while the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M) is in the fray in 16 in Kerala. The BSP has put up candidates in 74 constituencies, higher than even the BJP and the Congress. 

In terms of turnout, in 2014, these 87 seats recorded 67.3% polling, and in 2019, the voting percentage rose to 70.1%. The decline in turnout in Phase 1 of the elections has been a subject of intense debate, and hence, how much voting the upcoming phase will see will be monitored closely by all. 

The polling numbers will also have to be tracked not only in total but also seat-wise. Seventy-one of these 87 seats saw higher voting percentages in 2019, and of them, the incumbent party lost in 24. On the other hand, the turnout saw a decline in 17 seats, and the winning party from 2014 lost in six constituencies. 

Winning Margins Bigger For BJP

In the previous elections, the BJP won 52 seats, the Congress 18, while other parties and candidates won 17. Adjusting for allies, the NDA secured victory in 61 constituencies, the INDIA bloc in 23, while non-aligned parties got three seats. For the NDA, the winning margins were around 20% in those 61 seats, meaning that the areas are the alliance’s strongholds and a large number of swing votes will be required to sway the results any other way.

Meanwhile, the Congress’s winning margins in 18 seats in the last election were much smaller – around 10%. This means that a swing of just 5% votes in these regions can put the grand old party on the back foot. Non-aligned parties won with an even thinner margin of 5%, and these seats may see cut-throat contests this time.

Assam And Bihar Contests

Of the five seats going to polls in Assam, the BJP won four last time, and the Congress just one. The latter hopes to gain a few this year on the back of the discontent and the consequent polarisation due to the implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA). 

In Bihar’s five seats that will witness polling tomorrow, the Janata Dal (United) (JD-U) won four and the Congress merely one in the 2019 contest. The Mahagathbandhan formation is hoping to bank on the mistrust and anger that Nitish Kumar’s constant flip-flops may have caused amongst certain sections.

Can Karnataka Spring A Surprise?

Fourteen seats are going to the polls in Karnataka tomorrow. Of them, the BJP won 11 in 2019, while the remaining three were netted by the Congress, the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD-S) and an independent. Given the implementation of the ‘guarantees’ by the Siddaramaiah government since it came to power in the state last year, the Congress hopes to make significant gains this time.

The BJP, meanwhile, hopes to neutralise losses due to anti-incumbency by aligning with H.D. Deve Gowda’s JD(S), which has decent clout in Southern Karnataka. 

The Kerala Battlefront

Kerala is going to be an interesting battle. Of the 20 seats going to polls here, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) had won 19 seats in the previous Lok Sabha election, while the CPI(M) led Left Democratic Front (LDF) could bag only a single constituency. The BJP hopes to make the contest triangular this time in around five seats where it bagged a 20-30% vote share, and finally open its account in the state. High-profile candidates like Anil Antony, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, Suresh Gopi and V. Muraleedharan may help it in that endeavour, but the battle remains tough.

However, the main contest is between the UDF and the LDF. The two Communist parties and the Congress, which are friends in Delhi but foes in Kerala, have been attacking each other aggressively. While the LDF has attacked the Congress over Rahul Gandhi’s candidature from Wayanad and not Uttar Pradesh, the latter has questioned why Chief Minister Pinayari Vijayan is not behind bars. The Left has also been raising the CAA issue and the Manipur conflict to woo minorities and win a few seats.

Hat-Trick Bid In Rajasthan, Local Currents In Maharashtra

In Rajasthan, the BJP in 2019 had won all the 13 seats that are going to the polls on April 26. The party hopes to score a hat-trick in the state and win all its 25 Lok Sabha seats again. However, a resurgent Congress and the recent Jat/Rajput ire could put a spanner in the works. 

Meanwhile, in Maharashtra, of the eight seats that are poll-bound, the BJP had won three in 2019, the Shiv Sena four, and an independent candidate one. But since then, three erstwhile Sena MPs have joined the Eknath Shinde faction in recent months. The battle in Maharashtra has heated up, with the crucial question for the state and its voters being who the real Sena and the real Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) are. After the splits in both parties, while the symbols are with the Shinde and Ajit Pawar factions, the family legacy rests with Uddhav and Sharad Pawar. The contest has turned somewhat local, which is not good for any incumbent; a Presidential-style battle is usually beneficial. 

In 2019, the BJP won all the eight seats going to the polls in Uttar Pradesh, except one – Amroha – which was bagged by the BSP. This time, with Mayawati’s party not being a constituent of the INDIA bloc, the BJP hopes to win all of these eight seats. That could be possible but not easy, given that the party’s winning margins in two seats last time, Meerut and Baghpat, were just 4,700 and 23,500 votes, respectively. 

To achieve ‘Mission 370’, the BJP will need a strike rate of 83%. It could touch only 72% in the previous Lok Sabha elections. Can it raise its tally this time?

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.

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Donald Trump Support Slipping After Indictment, But MAGAs Still Love Their Saviour

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A new poll from CNN and polling firm SSRS suggests that support for Donald Trump may be “softening” a little bit following his indictment and arrest on federal charges of mishandling top-secret documents, but that he remains the top choice for Republican primary voters, who have repeatedly shown their willingness to overlook a little light treason.

CNN says that while Trump is still leading the rest of the Republican primary field “by a large margin,”

the poll suggests that his support has declined, as have positive views of him among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Nearly a quarter now say they would not consider backing his candidacy under any circumstances. The survey also finds that those GOP-aligned voters not currently backing his 2024 bid have different views on his indictment and behavior than those in his corner.

Still, there’s little sign that Republican-aligned voters who aren’t backing Trump are consolidating behind any one of his rivals. Nor are they unified around wanting Trump out of the race entirely, or in feeling that his primary opponents ought to call him out for his alleged actions in this case.

Translation: Republican-ish folks not already on the MAGA bus aren’t sure they want to hop on, but they aren’t crazy about their other options and are currently standing around hoping maybe Ronald Reagan might be reanimated so they could get behind him before they end up going for Trump or staying home.

But those already on the crazy train are loving the ride and wouldn’t dream of going anywhere else, are you kidding? They’ll love Trump even more if he’s convicted, because that would just prove how much he scares the Deep State.

The poll shows that “47% of Republicans and Republican-leaning registered voters” pick Trump first among the announced primary candidates, which is down from 53 percent in May’s CNN poll. But none of the other Rs are anywhere close, either:

Support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis held steady at 26% in the latest poll, with former Vice President Mike Pence at 9%, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 5%, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott at 4%, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 3% and the remaining candidates at 1% or less.

The other notable changes were a 10-point slide in Trump’s “favorability” rating among Pubs and Pub-leaning voters, from 77 percent in May to 67 percent in the new poll. There was also an uptick among Rs and R-leans (Arlenes?) who said they would never ever ever support him, no not ever (unless they change their minds) from 16 percent in May to 23 percent now. This is your cue to sing “What, never? No, never! What, never? Hardly ever!” from HMS Pinafore, and to wait to see where that number goes in the next few months. Trump’s overall favorability rating is at 33 percent, which is also where Joe Biden’s is, and if that isn’t enough to drive you to drinkin’, you’d best find yourself a Hot Rod Lincoln.

Also, for a brief chortle, CNN adds that

At the same time, there has been a similar increase in the share saying they would not back DeSantis under any circumstances (up 6 points to 21%), while the shares ruling out other top candidates have held roughly steady.

None of this necessarily means that Trump is any danger in the GOP primary anyway, since a “54% majority of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say that Trump’s conduct doesn’t matter much to them as they consider his candidacy,” because they think a president’s “effectiveness” is more important to them, although we suspect “effectiveness” in this case measures whether they believe Trump still hates the same people they hate.

For the most part, Rs and R-leaners would prefer other Republicans not make too big a fuss about Trump’s little boxes problem, unless it’s to yell at the DOJ and maybe whine about Hunter Biden:

Just 12% say that in responding to the indictment, other Republican candidates for the nomination should focus on publicly condemning Trump’s alleged actions in this case, with 42% saying candidates should do more to publicly condemn the government’s prosecution of Trump, and 45% that they shouldn’t take a stand either way. Even those who do not currently back Trump for the nomination mostly want to see other candidates remain quiet on the indictment (54% say so), with 21% calling for Trump’s rivals to condemn his actions and 25% saying they should condemn the prosecution.

Our analysis is that most Republicans and leaners agree that pollsters should move on to questions that aren’t about the indictment, because they have a vague sense that normies may have problems with it, the fools. Only 26 percent of the faithful and almost-faithful said Trump should drop out of the campaign, and another 16 percent added that well, OK, if he were convicted, he should drop out then. Otherwise, they’re apparently ready for Trump to report to jail and then pardon himself as soon as he’s sworn in, and then the Reaping of the Unfaithful can begin. (We really do expect future polls to ask whether Rs support him governing from prison when he wins, no not if, how dare you?)

Outside the Republican bubble, normal Americans seem to think a former president being accused of federal crimes is bad. Among all Americans, 59 percent say Trump should end his campaign; an additional 11 percent say he should drop out if convicted. That goes to a whopping 85 percent when Republicans and leaners are taken out of the survey. More numbers? Why not?

Most US adults, 55%, say that Trump acted illegally in the situation involving these classified documents, with 30% saying that he acted unethically but not illegally, and just 15% that he did nothing wrong. The partisan divide in views of Trump’s actions has widened since earlier this year. Compared with a January survey, more Democrats (up 10 points to 89%) and independents (up 7 points to 59%) now say they believe Trump acted illegally, but the share of Republicans who feel that way has dropped (down 7 points to 18%).

Oh, come and see the polarization, what a shame, etc.

There’s more, but we are disappointed that CNN and SSRS did not ask respondents if they thought their mental health would be significantly better if Trump had never been born, which seems like a gap in the data.

[CNN / CNN/SSRS poll (PDF file) / Image generated using Stable Diffusion AI 2.1 and tweaked in photoshoop. Thanks also to the gentleman we met at the crossroads at midnight who volunteered his help.]

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New Jersey Schools Get Climate Education In Your Peanut Butter, Or At Least In Kids’ Hydroponic Lettuce

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It’s entirely understandable that thinking about climate change can be incredibly depressing. There’s so much that should have been done sooner, and the crisis has gotten so much worse than it would have been if the world had taken action 30 or 40 years ago. We’re finally doing some of what’s going to be needed to prevent the absolute worst of the worst case scenarios from happening, probably, as David Wallace-Wells wrote last fall (New York Times gift link), but the job is so much more urgent and we’re long past the point where everything could have been just fine. But nearly every time I write about climate, I’m also impressed that there are so many extremely smart people doing extremely cool things that will genuinely help the world transition to clean energy and keep the planet more or less habitable for big dumb mammals like humans and even writers of Twilight fan fiction.

Now, if you’re teaching about climate science to elementary school kids, you don’t want to bum them out and make them lose hope, in part because that’s what middle school is for, but mostly because it’s not going to get them enthusiastic about learning. Which is why we were so delighted by this New York Times article (another gift link) about creative things teachers in New Jersey are doing to fulfill the state’s mandate that climate education be included in every grade. The goal is to get kids thinking about problem-solving and understanding that what humans do affects the world around them — in good ways, too:

Tammy Murphy, the wife of Governor Phil Murphy, a Democrat, was the driving force behind the new standards. She said climate change education was vital to help students attune to the planet’s health, prepare for a new economy based on green energy and adapt to climate shifts that promise to intensify as this generation of children reaches adulthood.

But the state’s method of teaching its youngest learners about climate change arguably does something more profound: Instead of focusing on the doom and gloom, the standards are designed to help children connect with what’s going on in the natural world around them, and, crucially, learn how to solve problems.

In a lovely introduction, we see a class of first-graders brainstorming ideas about what might be done to help penguins in Antarctica adapt to a warming continent. The kids are very into it, suggesting things like helping the penguins migrate someplace colder, or giving them floaties, or maybe offering to let some penguins live in the kids’ refrigerator. And by golly, the kids really do give it serious thought, like the little science fiends small humans can be:

One boy said the birds could cool off in the water, but reconsidered after remembering all the hungry orcas awaiting them there.

Now, obviously, none of these measures is going to be adopted by the UN’s Ministry for the Future, especially since it’s as fictional as the penguin-filled Frigidaire. But the goal is to promote inventive thinking and to get kids engaged in science. In another more real demonstration, the first graders’ teacher, Michelle Liwacz, is growing hydroponic lettuce and spinach in the classroom, which the kids will have for a nice green salad. Here’s a tweet from the school’s principal, Jeanne Muzi, who also gets a mention in the Times story.

Currently, the Times reports, New Jersey requires that climate be taught in

seven out of nine subject areas, including social studies and world languages. The board is expected to vote this summer on whether to require that climate change be expanded to the two remaining subject areas, English language arts and math.

And that’s all to the good, considering that climate change is going to be a part of all our lives going forward. Yes, some grumpy climate denialists are unhappy about the idea, because learning anything at all is “indoctrination,” but the heck with them, they’re not simply wrong, they’re also not representative of New Jerseyans in general, 70 percent of whom said in a recent poll that they support climate education. National polling also shows overwhelming support for climate education.

The really important thing, says elementary science education professor Lauren Madden of the College of New Jersey, is to help kids learn about climate change in a way that’s empowering for them, which means not putting it off until they’re older:

“When we shield them from so much, they’re not ready to unpack it when they learn about it, and it becomes more scary than when they understand they’re in a position where they can actively think about solutions,” Dr. Madden said. “When you take kids seriously that way, and trust them with that information, you can allow them to feel empowered to make locally relevant solutions.”

The curriculum even includes very simple lessons for kindergarteners, who learn that everything is connected, like pollinating insects and the food we eat, or even, in a lesson the first graders clearly loved, how to think about cause and effect: Sharks seem scary, but if they disappeared, one little girl exclaimed, other fish would go hungry because many fish eat shark poop!

And by Crom, if learning about fish that eat shark poop gets kids thinking about the world and their place in it, we should all be excited that kids are learning about shark poop.

It’s such a good story. Go read the whole thing!

And don’t forget to join us this afternoon for the fifth installment of our Wonkette Book Club; we’re about three quarters of the way through Kim Stanley Robinson’s epic 2020 climate novel The Ministry for the Future, and — not really a spoiler — the War for Planet Earth is finally going in some cautiously optimistic directions. We’ll be back with that in a bit, so be ready to join the conversation, yes even if you haven’t done the reading, because damn it, the news is grim but there’s also a lot to be hopeful about.

Oh, and be sure to let the penguins out of the fridge now and then. They need the exercise.

[New York Times (gift link) / NYT (also gift link) / Photo: Ted Eytan, Creative Commons License 2.0]

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