A new poll from CNN and polling firm SSRS suggests that support for Donald Trump may be “softening” a little bit following his indictment and arrest on federal charges of mishandling top-secret documents, but that he remains the top choice for Republican primary voters, who have repeatedly shown their willingness to overlook a little light treason.
CNN says that while Trump is still leading the rest of the Republican primary field “by a large margin,”
the poll suggests that his support has declined, as have positive views of him among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Nearly a quarter now say they would not consider backing his candidacy under any circumstances. The survey also finds that those GOP-aligned voters not currently backing his 2024 bid have different views on his indictment and behavior than those in his corner.
Still, there’s little sign that Republican-aligned voters who aren’t backing Trump are consolidating behind any one of his rivals. Nor are they unified around wanting Trump out of the race entirely, or in feeling that his primary opponents ought to call him out for his alleged actions in this case.
Translation: Republican-ish folks not already on the MAGA bus aren’t sure they want to hop on, but they aren’t crazy about their other options and are currently standing around hoping maybe Ronald Reagan might be reanimated so they could get behind him before they end up going for Trump or staying home.
But those already on the crazy train are loving the ride and wouldn’t dream of going anywhere else, are you kidding? They’ll love Trump even more if he’s convicted, because that would just prove how much he scares the Deep State.
The poll shows that “47% of Republicans and Republican-leaning registered voters” pick Trump first among the announced primary candidates, which is down from 53 percent in May’s CNN poll. But none of the other Rs are anywhere close, either:
Support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis held steady at 26% in the latest poll, with former Vice President Mike Pence at 9%, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 5%, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott at 4%, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 3% and the remaining candidates at 1% or less.
The other notable changes were a 10-point slide in Trump’s “favorability” rating among Pubs and Pub-leaning voters, from 77 percent in May to 67 percent in the new poll. There was also an uptick among Rs and R-leans (Arlenes?) who said they would never ever ever support him, no not ever (unless they change their minds) from 16 percent in May to 23 percent now. This is your cue to sing “What, never? No, never! What, never? Hardly ever!” from HMS Pinafore, and to wait to see where that number goes in the next few months. Trump’s overall favorability rating is at 33 percent, which is also where Joe Biden’s is, and if that isn’t enough to drive you to drinkin’, you’d best find yourself a Hot Rod Lincoln.
Also, for a brief chortle, CNN adds that
At the same time, there has been a similar increase in the share saying they would not back DeSantis under any circumstances (up 6 points to 21%), while the shares ruling out other top candidates have held roughly steady.
None of this necessarily means that Trump is any danger in the GOP primary anyway, since a “54% majority of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say that Trump’s conduct doesn’t matter much to them as they consider his candidacy,” because they think a president’s “effectiveness” is more important to them, although we suspect “effectiveness” in this case measures whether they believe Trump still hates the same people they hate.
For the most part, Rs and R-leaners would prefer other Republicans not make too big a fuss about Trump’s little boxes problem, unless it’s to yell at the DOJ and maybe whine about Hunter Biden:
Just 12% say that in responding to the indictment, other Republican candidates for the nomination should focus on publicly condemning Trump’s alleged actions in this case, with 42% saying candidates should do more to publicly condemn the government’s prosecution of Trump, and 45% that they shouldn’t take a stand either way. Even those who do not currently back Trump for the nomination mostly want to see other candidates remain quiet on the indictment (54% say so), with 21% calling for Trump’s rivals to condemn his actions and 25% saying they should condemn the prosecution.
Our analysis is that most Republicans and leaners agree that pollsters should move on to questions that aren’t about the indictment, because they have a vague sense that normies may have problems with it, the fools. Only 26 percent of the faithful and almost-faithful said Trump should drop out of the campaign, and another 16 percent added that well, OK, if he were convicted, he should drop out then. Otherwise, they’re apparently ready for Trump to report to jail and then pardon himself as soon as he’s sworn in, and then the Reaping of the Unfaithful can begin. (We really do expect future polls to ask whether Rs support him governing from prison when he wins, no not if, how dare you?)
Outside the Republican bubble, normal Americans seem to think a former president being accused of federal crimes is bad. Among all Americans, 59 percent say Trump should end his campaign; an additional 11 percent say he should drop out if convicted. That goes to a whopping 85 percent when Republicans and leaners are taken out of the survey. More numbers? Why not?
Most US adults, 55%, say that Trump acted illegally in the situation involving these classified documents, with 30% saying that he acted unethically but not illegally, and just 15% that he did nothing wrong. The partisan divide in views of Trump’s actions has widened since earlier this year. Compared with a January survey, more Democrats (up 10 points to 89%) and independents (up 7 points to 59%) now say they believe Trump acted illegally, but the share of Republicans who feel that way has dropped (down 7 points to 18%).
Oh, come and see the polarization, what a shame, etc.
There’s more, but we are disappointed that CNN and SSRS did not ask respondents if they thought their mental health would be significantly better if Trump had never been born, which seems like a gap in the data.
[CNN / CNN/SSRS poll (PDF file) / Image generated using Stable Diffusion AI 2.1 and tweaked in photoshoop. Thanks also to the gentleman we met at the crossroads at midnight who volunteered his help.]
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