Tag: nato

Tucker-By-Numbers Reads His Russian Propaganda Mad Lib After Biden Ukraine Visit

Post By Politics , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Good morning.

Anyone could have guessed, after President Joe Biden’s widely successful and patriotic and good and decent Presidents’ Day visit to Ukraine, that Tucker Carlson would have been in overdrive last night to convince his viewers that NO, you did not see what you just saw, and that was BAD, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the ENEMY, and Vladimir Putin is your DADDY.

Etc.

It’s almost like Tucker-By-Numbers at this point. Any of us could make our own Tucker Kremlin Propaganda Mad Lib.

Hell, Fish Stick Fauntleroy could go on vacation and they could do a rotating cast of guest hosts to read Tucker Kremlin Propaganda Mad Libs. It’d be like the thing they’re doing on “‘The Daily Show” right now, but probably with way more incel guest hosts.

At the beginning of his show he lavished praise on Donald Trump, for being the most brilliant foreign policy mind ever.

It’s so funny because it’s always been pretty clear that Trump, who is, in point of fact, a fucking moron, did not come up with his foreign policy ideas by himself. It’s always seemed like SOMEBODY was filling his head with nonsense. It’s especially odd when Trump has ended up with highly specific beliefs about things that wouldn’t even be on most westerners’ radar, but would be particularly close to SOMEBODY’S heart.

There’s also the way Trump is certain he could end Russia’s war on Ukraine, by giving Russia everything it ever wanted and making Ukraine beg for mercy. Which is on brand, considering how he extorted that country to help him steal the 2020 election, in exchange for protection from Russia, and was impeached for it.

The Top 768,796 Reasons Putin Wants Trump Re-Elected, For GOP Rep. Chris Stewart And Idiots Like Him

Who Tells Trump Sweet Little Lies About Ukraine? OH, WHO THE F*CK YOU THINK?

Trump Has Genius Plan To End Russia/Ukraine War, It Is Give Putin Everything He Wants And F*ck Ukraine

It’s Impeachment-Eve-Thirty, Motherf*ckers! Let’s Remember What Trump’s Ukraine Scandal Is Really All About.

We Have Always Been At War With … Montenegro???

We Knew Trump Was Probably A Russian Intelligence Asset, But HOLY F*CK

But anyway! That monologue last night, hoo boy and boy howdy!

You can read it for yourself by clicking that link. The Fox News headline is that “Zelenskyy is an instrument of total destruction.” Tucker’s thesis was, “Donald Trump had far wiser instincts about American foreign policy than any leader in at least a generation, and he did it without the help of anyone.”

Every word of that sentence is:

Giphy

These were Trump’s very deep thoughts he came up with all by himself, according to Tucker:

“What’s the point of NATO?,” he asked nearly 30 years after the fall of the Soviet Union. No one in Washington could answer him. Shut up, racist, they replied, but Trump just kept going in his Trumpy way. “Why would we fight Russia?” he wondered. “Wouldn’t making Russia our enemy just drive Putin into the arms of China and create the most powerful and dangerous anti-American bloc in history?”

No one bothered to answer him. In fact, for the sin of asking, they called him a traitor to his country. They impeached him for it, and then they started a war with Putin. But in retrospect, Trump had asked a deeply patriotic question: If Russia ever joined forces with China, American global hegemony, its power would end instantly. You’d have the world’s largest land mass and largest natural gas reserves, allied with the world’s largest population and world’s largest economy.

You betcha. We impeached Trump for asking a question — it was a different question though — and then started a war with Putin over it. Nobody else started the war, like say the man who almost a year ago invaded a whole nother country, our ally, we started the war. Also: the fire!

Anyway, Trump had those very original questions about NATO, and also had very specific questions about the consequences of acknowledging that Russia is not our friend. Funny how the Trump and Tucker versions of the question both drastically overinflate the power of Russia. “The most powerful and dangerous anti-American bloc in history.” Lordy, the Putin fluffing. Gotta reassure him everybody still thinks he’s this big man, after his year of embarrassment in Ukraine.

You won’t be surprised to learn that it just went on and on and on like this. We imagine Russian state TV clipped a whole bunch of it to show Daddy. Probably this part too:

Zelenskyy himself is a very dark force. That is obvious if you watch him. It is unmistakable. Who could not see that? This man is a destroyer. He banned a Christian faith in his country and arrested nuns and priests. Oh, but he’s a hero, claim our leaders from Chuck Schumer to Mitch McConnell. No, Zelenskyy is not a hero. He is an instrument of total destruction. That is not a defense of his enemies. It’s just true and maybe that’s why Joe Biden is drawn to him.

Zelenskyy obviously did not ban Christian faith, but this is a lie Putin fluffers are telling.

Note that Tucker said, “It’s just true,” his assertions about Zelenskyy. That’s his weird tic when he’s demanding his viewers swallow propaganda. “It’s just true,” he says in a weird cadence while staring at the camera.

Tucker also said the air raid sirens that happened in Kyiv when Biden was there were “Potemkin air raid sirens.”

There was a ton more, including the requisite babbling about how if Biden really cared he would have gone to East Palestine, Ohio, but we are finished with this particular Mad Lib.

[Fox News]

Follow Evan Hurst on Twitter right here!

And once that doesn’t exist, I’m also giving things a go at the Mastodon (@[email protected]) and at Post!

Have you heard that Wonkette DOES NOT EXIST without your donations? Please hear it now, and if you have ever enjoyed a Wonkette article, throw us some bucks, or better yet, SUBSCRIBE!

Do your Amazon shopping through this link, because reasons.



Source link

#TuckerByNumbers #Reads #Russian #Propaganda #Mad #Lib #Biden #Ukraine #Visit

Biden to rally NATO allies as Ukraine war gets more complicated

Post By World , , , , , ,

U.S. President Joe Biden is set to consult with allies from NATO’s eastern flank in Poland on Tuesday as the Russian invasion of Ukraine edges toward an even more complicated stage.

After paying an unannounced visit to Kyiv, Mr. Biden made his way to Warsaw on Monday on a mission to solidify Western unity as both Ukraine and Russia prepare to launch spring offensives. The conflict — the most significant war in Europe since World War II — has already left tens of thousands dead, devastated Ukraine’s infrastructure system and damaged the global economy.

“I thought it was critical that there not be any doubt, none whatsoever, about U.S. support for Ukraine in the war,” Mr. Biden said as he stood with Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv before departing for Poland. “The Ukrainian people have stepped up in a way that few people ever have in the past.”

Mr. Biden is scheduled to meet with Polish President Andrzej Duda and deliver an address from the gardens of Warsaw’s Royal Castle on Tuesday, where he’s expected to highlight the commitment of the central European country and other allies to Ukraine over the past year. On Wednesday, he’ll consult with Mr. Duda and other leaders of the Bucharest Nine, a group of the easternmost members of NATO military alliance.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Mr. Biden would underscore in his Warsaw address that Russian President Vladimir Putin wrongly surmised “that Ukraine would cower and that the West would be divided” when he launched his invasion.

“He got the opposite of that across the board,” Mr. Sullivan said.

No clear endgame

While Mr. Biden is looking to use his whirlwind trip to Europe as a moment of affirmation for Ukraine and allies, the White House has also emphasized that there is no clear endgame to the war in the near term and the situation on the ground has become increasingly complex.

The administration on Sunday revealed it has new intelligence suggesting that China, which has remained on the sidelines of the conflict, is now considering sending Moscow lethal aid. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it could become a “serious problem” if Beijing follows through.

Mr. Biden and Mr. Zelenskyy discussed capabilities that Ukraine needs “to be able to succeed on the battlefield” in the months ahead, Mr. Sullivan said. Mr. Zelenskyy has been pushing the U.S. and European allies to provide fighter jets and long-range missile systems known as ATACMS — which Mr. Biden has declined to provide so far. Mr. Sullivan declined to comment on whether there was any movement on the matter during the leaders’ talk.

With no end in sight for the war, the anniversary is a critical moment for Mr. Biden to try to bolster European unity and reiterate that Mr. Putin’s invasion was a frontal attack on the post-World War II international order. The White House hopes the president’s visit to Kyiv and Warsaw will help bolster American and global resolve.

“It is going to be a long war,” said Michal Baranowski, managing director of the German Marshall Fund East. “If we don’t have the political leadership and if we don’t explain to our societies why this war is critical for their security… then Ukraine would be in trouble.”

In the U.S., a poll published last week by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that support for providing Ukraine with weapons and direct economic assistance is softening. And earlier this month, 11 House Republicans introduced what they called the “Ukraine fatigue” resolution urging Mr. Biden to end military and financial aid to Ukraine, while pushing Ukraine and Russia to come to a peace agreement.

Mr. Biden dismissed the notion of waning American support during his visit to Kyiv.

“For all the disagreement we have in our Congress on some issues, there is significant agreement on support for Ukraine,” he said. “It’s not just about freedom in Ukraine. … It’s about freedom of democracy at large.”

Some establishment Republicans say it’s now more important than ever for Mr. Biden and others in Washington to hammer home why continued backing of Ukraine matters.

“The bottom line for me is this is a war of aggression, war crimes on steroids, on television every day. To turn your back on this leads to more aggression,” said Sen. Lindsay Graham, R-S.C. “Putin won’t stop in Ukraine. I’m firmly in the camp of it’s in our vital national security interest to continue to help Ukraine and I can sell it at home and will continue to sell it.”

Former U.S. Ambassador John Herbst, who served as the top diplomat to Ukraine from 2003 to 2006, said Mr. Biden’s White House can do better making the case to a domestic audience that “at minimum keeping Putin bottled up in Ukraine” is in U.S. economic and foreign policy interest and lessens the chance that Russia can turn the conflict into a wider war.

“The smart play is to give Ukraine the substantial assistance to make sure that the Putin problem is solved,” said Mr. Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. “If this were something laid out clearly from the Oval Office and then repeated constantly by the president, his senior foreign policy and national security team, I don’t have any doubt the American public will embrace it.”

Poland’s role

Ahead of the trip, the White House spotlighted Poland’s efforts to assist Ukraine. More than 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees have settled in Poland since the start of the war and millions more have crossed through Poland on their way to other countries. Poland has also provided Ukraine with $3.8 billion in military and humanitarian aid, according to the White House.

The Biden administration announced last summer that it was establishing a permanent U.S. garrison in Poland, creating an enduring American foothold on NATO’s eastern flank.

The U.S. has committed about $113 billion in aid to Ukraine since last year, while European allies have committed tens of billions of dollars more and welcomed millions of Ukrainian refugees who have fled the conflict.

“We built a coalition from the Atlantic to the Pacific,” Mr. Biden said. “Russia’s aim was to wipe Ukraine off the map. Putin’s war of conquest is failing.”

For the second time in less than a year, Mr. Biden will use Warsaw as the backdrop to deliver a major address on the Russian invasion. Last March, he delivered a forceful and highly personal condemnation of Putin at the Royal Castle just weeks after the start of the war.

Mr. Duda said Mr. Biden’s presence on Polish soil as the war’s anniversary approaches sends an important signal about the U.S. commitment to European security.

“In Warsaw, the president will deliver a very important address — one that a large part of the world, if not the whole world actually, is waiting for,” Mr. Duda said.

Source link

#Biden #rally #NATO #allies #Ukraine #war #complicated

How long can Moldova stay neutral when fighting takes place next door?

Post By World , , , , ,

Moldova closed its airspace for two hours this week. The reason, according to local media, was “security considerations” amid Russia’s invasion of Moldova’s neighbouring Ukraine and accusations voiced by President Maia Sandu that the Kremlin intended to seize power in the Republic.

Article 11 of the constitution of Moldova states: “The Republic proclaims its permanent neutrality, […] does not allow the deployment of military forces of other states on its territory.”

Following Russian military action in the south of Ukraine in 2022 near the Moldovan border and with the prospect of Russian missiles violating the Republic’s airspace, should we expect its foreign policy stance to change?

Will Moldova eventually follow in Ukraine’s footsteps and reconsider its neutral non-aligned status in favour of Euro-Atlantic integration and forming a strategic partnership with the European Union and the United States?

Moldova and NATO: A short history

Relations with NATO began in 1992 when Moldova joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. In 1997, this forum replaced the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, which brings together allies and partner countries in the Euro-Atlantic region.

Bilateral cooperation began when Moldova joined the Partnership for Peace program in 1994. In 2006, the Republic agreed to its first two-year Individual Partnership Action Plan. 

At the alliance summit in Wales in September 2014, allied leaders offered increased support, advice and assistance to Moldova as part of the new Defence and Related Security Capacity Building Initiative. An individual package of measures was agreed upon in June 2015.

At the request of the Moldovan government, a NATO Civilian Liaison Office was established in Chisinau in December 2017 to promote practical cooperation and help support reforms in the country. 

But according to Marie Dumoulin, a former career diplomat and today director of the Wider Europe Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Moldova would have a hard time joining the alliance because of its stance on neutrality. 

“Because of the neutral status enshrined in the constitution, the country cannot be a member of any military alliance,” she said. 

“Therefore, even if Moldova has maintained and continues to maintain relations with NATO, it is not a member of this alliance or of the Collective Security Treaty Organization formed around Russia. 

“At present, it has no desire to join any of these alliances. And the overwhelming majority of the population is not in favour of either NATO or CSTO membership.”

“At the same time, “the discussion about rapprochement with NATO and – more generally – about an intensification of security cooperation with Western countries really began in the context of the invasion of Ukraine, because it directly affects the security of Moldova. 

“And Chisinau is aware of the limits of its own defence capabilities, so there is a strengthening of cooperation, especially with the European Union, and a renewed discussion of a possible deepening of cooperation with NATO,” the French political scientist notes.

A possible “Ukrainian scenario”?

How likely is it that Moldova will reconsider its attitude toward neutrality after Russia invaded Ukraine?

“Ukraine has always been in a somewhat different position,” Dumoulin said. “Despite the neutrality clause in the constitution, there has always been a strong current of those who wanted to eventually join NATO.

“That is, this issue was much more discussed in Ukraine even before the annexation of Crimea, and the annexation turned public opinion in favour of membership in the alliance. The issue was not and is not discussed so much in Moldova, it is really not the main topic in the debate on public policy.”

But Chisinau may be pushed in this direction. In the event of an escalation of the war in Ukraine, Dumoulin added, “we cannot rule out Chisinau’s desire to reaffirm its position of neutrality in order to stay as far away from this war as possible. 

“At this stage, Russian attempts to advance to Mykolaiv, Odesa, and, ultimately, to the borders of Moldova, have been unsuccessful.

“So far there is no information about a new offensive. In this regard, the Moldovan authorities remain calm. On the other hand, there is a concern in Chisinau about other levers of destabilisation that Russia has.”

A number of analysts do not rule out that the “frozen conflict” in Transnistria — a Moscow-backed breakaway region of Moldova — could be a trigger for Moldova to give up its neutrality in the future.

Today, this conflict is under relative control. Not a single shot has been fired since August 1992, when the confrontation between Chisinau and the unrecognised “Transnistria Moldovan Republic” entered a peaceful phase. 

“But there is a Russian peacekeeping contingent in Transnistria,” Dumoulin notes. 

Russia pledged to leave the region in the late 1990s. But, it has not fulfilled its obligation so far. Many draw a parallel between the creation of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in 2014 and today’s full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Key areas of cooperation now

At the 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid, the allies agreed on an adapted support package to help Moldova implement its own long-term security and defence modernisation plans. Today, Moldova cooperates with NATO in a number of ways. 

For example, the Alliance is individually supporting Chisinau’s efforts to reform and modernise the army through the Defence and Related Security Capacity Building Initiative and through the Defence Education Enhancement Programme.

Will Russia push Moldova into the arms of NATO?

President Sandu’s recent statements about Moscow’s alleged plans to overthrow the pro-European government in Chisinau have added to previous accusations that Russia has deliberately provoked an energy crisis in Moldova.

“Russia’s possibilities to destabilise Moldova are not new,” notes Dumoulin, “they are related not only to the situation in Ukraine but also to Russia’s very strong influence in the Republic, especially in the political sphere. 

“There is also economic dependence, first of all, energy dependence. Moldova has made a lot of efforts to get out of this dependence, but so far it remains vulnerable.”

Moscow has been repeatedly accused of a deliberate campaign of disinformation. A number of analysts have linked Moscow with the Shor opposition party in Moldova, headed by businessman Ilan Shor.

According to Dumoulin, this political force “can be manipulated by Russia to provoke demonstrations and anti-government movements in Moldova. 

“The economic situation is extremely difficult because of rising energy prices, because of the consequences of the war, in particular, the influx of a large number of refugees. Thus, a fertile ground for protest movements is created.”

Prospects for Moldovan-NATO relations

“Moldova has not officially expressed a desire to join NATO,” Marie Dumoulin said. “There is no consensus among its population on this issue either, and I think this largely explains the caution of the Moldovan authorities. 

“They don’t want to start a discussion that could polarize public opinion in a situation that is already extremely difficult.”

Nevertheless, this situation could affect Moldova’s rapprochement with the European Union, which supports it in every possible way, especially with regard to Chisinau’s independence with respect to Moscow. 

Much, according to Dumoulin, depends on how Moldovan public opinion about Russia will develop because there is still a significant part of the population that is sympathetic to Russia. On the other hand, the evolution of public opinion toward the European Union and NATO could also be decisive.

Source link

#long #Moldova #stay #neutral #fighting #takes #place #door

Ukraine and its allies must agree on what victory against Russia means

Post By World , , , , ,


The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

The recent trans-Atlantic debacle regarding the transfer of tanks to Ukraine — especially German-made Leopards — brought to the fore the fact that despite the immense threat posed by Russia to European security, there are still deep fractures within NATO. 

The German government finally approved the transfer of the coveted Leopard tanks to Ukraine, but only following weeks of intense political pressure on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

For that to happen, US President Joe Biden’s administration had to relent and send some of its fuel-inefficient yet powerful Abrams tanks to Ukraine. 

But why the discord?

Different theories of victory, different views on Europe’s future

To make sense of the periodic disagreements on Ukraine within the bloc, we need to look at how different NATO powers conceive the endpoint of Russia’s war. 

By my count, there are at least three broad “theories of victory” shared by different parts of the alliance. 

That is, different countries within the alliance have different ideas about what winning means in Ukraine and what concrete actions are needed to achieve that endpoint.

Poland and the Baltic countries share the same maximalist theory of victory with Ukraine. That is, they define victory in terms of the complete liberation of the Ukrainian territory illegally occupied by Russia after the bloodiest day of the Maidan Revolution in Kyiv on 20 February 2014, including the Crimean peninsula and the regions in the Donbas.

As part of this endgame, the maximalist view also includes the collapse of the President Vladimir Putin-led regime at the Kremlin — and ideally, even the collapse of the Russian state. 

To achieve this definition of victory, the countries that subscribe to this view push for increased material support for Ukraine with increasingly sophisticated weapons. 

Besides that, this group of countries advocate for an increasingly bellicose treatment of Russia, refusal of any compromise or negotiations, and intensifying international pressure on Putin’s regime.

Option two: Frustrating Russia enough to sit down for peace talks

In turn, Germany and France advance a different theory of victory. 

They define it as a negotiated settlement following talks on an equal footing between Kyiv and Moscow. 

They believe Russia cannot be completely obliterated without running the risk of a dangerous — or even nuclear — escalation. 

Simply put, it would not be advisable to have a nuclear power in chaos, provoking spillover effects and global instability.

As such, they aim to arm Ukraine with sufficient weapons to frustrate any Russian military initiative but not to eliminate potential incentives to negotiate. 

An ideal situation would be a military impasse on the front, which may force the two sides to shift to diplomacy to solve their disagreements. 

Looking at the German policy from this perspective, Scholz’s reticence to supply Ukraine with tanks makes much more sense.

Bloodying Moscow’s nose — yet letting it have Crimea

Finally, the UK and the US seem to have a slightly different theory of victory than the one prioritised by Kyiv. 

London and Washington seem to be happy to give the Kremlin a bloody nose and will support Ukraine in reclaiming its territory illegally occupied since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, including the self-proclaimed separatist states in the Donbas — but not Crimea. 

Eroding Russia’s conventional capabilities, without providing any incentives to Putin to escalate militarily by using nuclear weapons, fits neatly within Washington’s “strategic competition” framework. 

As such, the US is providing substantial military assistance to Ukraine in a gradual, planned, and well-targeted manner, seeking to slowly chip away at Russia’s conventional capabilities without leading to an escalatory reaction.

To this end, the White House has publicly stated that it will support Ukraine to reclaim only its territory lost in 2022, evading questions regarding Crimea.

Ukrainians will pay the cost of any disagreements with their lives

The contrasting theories of victory employed by different groups of NATO countries lead to increased friction between allies. 

In turn, this has hampered the entire war effort, as different countries seek to advance different paths to end the war according to their preferred definition of victory. 

Countries are reluctant to engage in initiatives or to support mobilisation actions that go against their preferred route in supporting Kyiv and ending the war.

The power differentials between the US and the UK, the western Europeans, and the northern-and-eastern Europeans play a critical role.

Of the three, the latter have been surprisingly assertive and successful in pushing their views. 

Relying on the media influence that Ukraine still enjoys worldwide and the domestic disagreements within Germany, they have been able to force Scholz’s hand.

However, all this squabbling comes with a cost that is counted in Ukrainian lives. 

As the war evolves, the contrasting theories of victory held by different NATO members will lead to recurrent conflicts that will not end up helping improve Europe’s security.

A unified agreement on what victory entails means solidified resolve to defeat Russia

Instead, what is needed is a trans-Atlantic compromise over what should be achieved in Ukraine, with the Kyiv leadership at the table. 

While Kyiv’s aims are legitimate and worthwhile, Ukrainians must also consider the implications and worries of their partners, on which they so desperately depend. 

Together, these countries need to set aside their diplo-talk and agree on a straightforward view of what would comprise victory that can be shared by everyone. 

To do otherwise risks undermining Ukraine’s and Europe’s success and future security.

The continued military support for Ukraine is beyond question, yet negotiating a shared theory of victory must not be taboo. 

If there is to be trust between partners, and if we are to overcome current squabbles, European, North American, and Ukrainian leaders must discuss frankly where the war is going, what is to be achieved, and how it should be achieved. 

Marius Ghincea is a PhD Researcher at the European University Institute in Fiesole and a Research Fellow at the Hertie School in Berlin. His research agenda focuses on the domestic politics of foreign policy, especially in the United States and Germany.

At Euronews, we believe all views matter. Contact us at [email protected] to send pitches or submissions and be part of the conversation.

Source link

#Ukraine #allies #agree #victory #Russia #means

Can ‘earthquake diplomacy’ help NATO chances for Sweden and Finland?

Post By World , , , ,

In the hours after two massive earthquakes hit southern Turkey, the well-oiled wheels of humanitarian assistance started turning in Sweden and Finland. 

The Nordic nations are locked in something of a stalemate with Ankara over their NATO memberships — as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan holds up the process, demanding that Stockholm and Helsinki meet strict criteria before moving forward with ratification. 

So could ‘earthquake diplomacy’ soften Turkey’s stance towards the NATO applicants? 

It’s worked before in the region. 

Back in 1999 a powerful quake hit near the Turkish city of İzmit, and the Greeks were among the first to respond with aid, despite decades of enmity between the two neighbours. A few months later when a magnitude 6.0 earthquake hit Athens, the Turks reciprocated with help. 

The show of neighbourly good faith led to Greece dropping its objections on Turkey becoming an EU candidate country — something policy makers in Finland and Sweden will be hoping to see repeated. 

What aid have Sweden and Finland given?

The Swedes have so far given €3.3 million in humanitarian support, and sent more than 50 search and rescue experts, search dogs, and medical teams to Turkey. 

“The core support that Sweden is already contributing makes a big difference on the ground in Türkiye and Syria,” said Sweden’s Minister for International Development Cooperation Johan Forssell. 

Forssell said his government acted “swiftly and resolutely” but Dr Paul Levin at Stockholm University’s Institute for Turkish Studies said they could have moved faster.

“Sweden was late providing aid.” 

“I don’t think that’s a lack of trying or will, but that Sweden is not good at swift disaster response,” he told Euronews, citing critical Royal Commissions into official responses to the 2004 Asia tsunami, and COVID-19 pandemic. 

“I think we are unfortunately not good at disaster response,” Levin said.   

On the EU level, Sweden — which currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Council —  convened the bloc’s Integrated Political Crisis Response mechanism last week, to coordinate all EU support for both Turkey and Syria at political level.

Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson and Ursula von der Leyen also announced they’ll organise an international donor conference for Turkey and Syria in March.

In Finland, the government response has been fairly fast and robust, and loudly telegraphed to Ankara.  

Helsinki provided heated emergency accommodation, including tents and stoves, for 3,000 people; and coordinated delivery of supplies through NATO. 

The Finns have also sent search and rescue experts, and also contribute multilaterally through the UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund, which has so far given $50 million (€46.65 million).  

“Tens of thousands of people have died and the destruction is very extensive. The need for emergency accommodation in the area hit by the earthquake is huge,” said Finland’s Interior Minister Krista Mikkonen. 

“By sending material assistance, Finland aims to help people meet their basic needs. It is important that we provide help to the earthquake area as soon as possible.” 

What’s the situation in Ankara?

Whether Turkey’s government has the bandwidth to handle NATO applications during a time of unprecedented crisis is debatable. 

With a general election still scheduled for 14 May, Erdoğan had been using Sweden (and to a lesser extent, Finland) as a political straw man, painting the country as a place that harboured terrorists and as a risk to Turkey’s national security. 

If the election is somehow postponed, Erdogan might still need a bogeyman as a distraction to mounting political problems at home, a tactic that may not work so well a second time.  

“The NATO news in Finland has not fully taken into account how this massive human catastrophe has changed the Turkish political landscape and discussion,” explained Ozan Yanar, a Finnish politician who was born in Turkey, and served as a Greens MP from 2015-2019.

“Right now all the Turkish focus is on these earthquakes, and it will stay on earthquakes for a very long time,” Yanar told Euronews. 

Yanar said he thinks it unlikely any Turkish politician would try to shift the focus away from any official failings in earthquake preparedness or response, as they would find themselves “in the midst of huge political criticism.” 

“People are angry Turkey was not ready for this, and the state actions after the earthquakes have been very slow. People would be harshly disappointed and criticise the regime if they would start to speak about NATO, which is not the main topic in Turkey right now,” said Yanar, who is running for parliament again in Finland’s spring elections. 

What are the chances of 1999-style earthquake diplomacy?

Paul Levin from Stockholm University thinks the chances are low that anything Sweden and Finland do to help with humanitarian aid will move the needle for Turkey on ratifying NATO membership. 

“I just dont see any real impact in terms of public relations on the Turkish side,” he said bluntly, describing a country currently in turmoil, with a “messy” political situation. 

Quite the opposite: “If Erdogan sees he has been hurt by this, and sees he won’t be able to win the election, he has a strong incentive to pospone it,” said Levin. 

“The more desperate he becomes politically, the more appealing those kind of tactics will be. I think he will do just about anything to get re-elected.”

That could mean continuing to demonise Stockholm in particular, for failing to deport Kurds that Turkey says are terror suspects. 

Ankara wants Finland and Sweden to deport some 130 “terrorists” before it will approve their bids to join NATO. Erdogan declared in January that the Nordic countries must “hand over your terrorists,” with Sweden saying Turkey had made demands that could not — and would not — be met. 

“Maybe it’s a bit early to speculate what will happen, but so far I have not seen any of the positive outcomes of diplomacy,” said Levin.



Source link

#earthquake #diplomacy #NATO #chances #Sweden #Finland

‘We will be in danger if Russia wins’: Security concerns drive Poland’s support for Ukraine

Post By World , , , , , , , ,

The war in Ukraine has conferred a new importance to the Baltic States and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe geographically closest to Russia – particularly Poland. Warsaw is determined to learn from Poland’s own history and help Ukraine win the war.  

Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Poland has been living with the consequences: 8 million Ukrainians have crossed the border into Polish territory since last February and the majority of NATO assistance is delivered through Poland, which shares a 535-kilometre-long border with Ukraine. With the prospect of a new Russian spring offensive in Ukraine on everyone’s mind, Poland is acting as if it is preparing for a war.  

If Poland’s support for Ukraine has been seemingly limitless, it comes from a deeply rooted belief that if Russia is not defeated, Poland itself will become a target. Security concerns have led Poland to modernize its army and boost its defence spending to up to 4 percent of its GDP this year, the highest percentage among all NATO countries, according to Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.  

“If we don’t support Ukraine now, there will be new targets for [Vladimir] Putin,” said Paweł Jabłoński, the Polish deputy minister for foreign affairs. “A Russian politician recently suggested that Russia should ‘denazify’ six more countries after Ukraine, including Poland. What we do now, we do out of solidarity and in support of the victims.”  

“The opinion throughout Polish society is that if Russia succeeds in Ukraine by claiming territory, whether in Kherson or Zaporizhzhia, there will be the next war, and another after that…,” said Łukasz Jankowski, a political journalist who covers the Polish Parliament. “The feeling is that our basic safety and our independence will be in danger if Russia wins.”  

The threat from Belarus  

Another fear is that Russian troops would combine the territories wrested away from Ukraine and “create a government like the one in Minsk”, said Jankowski. Following the break-up of the Soviet Union, an international treaty between Russia and Belarus signed in 1997 by Russian President Boris Yeltsin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko created the basis for a union between the two former Soviet republics. Both countries maintained their independence but Lukashenko has always supported Russia’s military initiatives without directly taking part in them.  

Should the war in Ukraine drag on, some in Eastern Europe fear Russia could eventually aim for the Baltic States. “This war is not over the territory of Ukraine but over the independence of Eastern Europe. That is why we must support Ukraine and there should not be any limits to this help,” said Jankowski.  

Poland’s support for Ukraine has been especially forthcoming when it comes to the country’s humanitarian response. Poland began to see increasing numbers of Ukrainians in 2014, the year the conflict effectively started with Russia’s takeover of Crimea. “We opted for a very simple way of permitting them to work,” said Jabłoński.  

Following the Russian invasion last year, a massive influx of 8 million refugees crossed the border into Poland, though many eventually went on to Romania and Moldova while others returned home. Recent arrivals have brought the total number of Ukrainians living in Poland to 3.37 million people. “In every Polish city, you can meet someone from Ukraine. There was never any ghettoization. Their integration was virtually seamless and today Ukrainians make up 8 percent of the total population in Poland,” said Jabłoński.   

A shared history not without dark episodes  

“Many Poles who take Ukrainian refugees into their homes see Ukraine as a very new nation, and they consider the relationship between Poland and Ukraine as a brotherhood,” said Jankowski. The history between the two countries is not without dark episodes. During the Second World War, Poles were the victims of ethnic cleansing by Ukrainian nationalists, while Poles forcibly deported thousands of Ukrainians. Decades later, former Polish president Aleksander Kwaśniewski and his Ukrainian counterpart Leonid Koutchma led a historic and formal Polish-Ukrainian reconciliation beginning in 1995.  

The strong bond between the two countries comes from similar languages and a shared history. In 1997, Ukraine and Poland had a no-visa regime. The experience of Ukrainians in a large, Slavic country with functioning public institutions and a free market helped drive calls for reform in Ukraine, wrote the historian Timothy Snyder in his book “The Construction of Nations”. At the turn of the century, Poland resisted pressure from the European Union to end its visa-free regime with Ukraine, asserting its right to fulfill its obligations once its adhesion to the EU became official. Once Poland joined the EU, its special arrangements with Ukraine came to an end.

While Poland has set a model in terms of welcoming refugees from Ukraine, its hospitality towards refugees from other countries has been debatable. A report from Amnesty International detailed Poland’s “selective solidarity” of welcoming Ukrainians fleeing the war and refusing entry to other refugees, principally from Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan, who were attempting to enter Poland through the border with Belarus. 

Is there an element of self-interest in Poland’s extensive help to Ukraine? Polish Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs Jabłoński wrote off the idea, claiming instead that the number one priority was to defend Ukraine and Central European states from a resurgent Russia. “In 2021, Russia demanded NATO to withdraw from Central Europe. If our international position grows while we are helping Ukraine win the war, we would be glad,” he explained.

“If Germany had taken a stronger position for Ukraine, we wouldn’t have had to take on this role. I wish we didn’t have to take on this role,” said Jabłoński, while citing the power imbalance between Central Europe and Western Europe, whose citizens often have the top leadership positions in European institutions.    

‘We want to strengthen NATO and be a driving force within it’ 

An opportunity for developing Central Europe’s role would be through a future Polish-Ukrainian Treaty, which could be signed in the upcoming weeks or months. Comparing it to the Élysée Treaty between France and Germany, Jabłoński said it would be a wide security, cultural and economic agreement. The treaty would “certainly not” be an alternative to NATO. “We want to strengthen NATO and be a driving force within it,” said the deputy foreign minister.  

When it comes to integrating Ukraine into the European Union, Polish leaders and observers are under no illusion. “We know corruption exists within the Ukrainian administration, but Poland [which joined the European Union in 2004] can help with its know-how,” said Jankowski.  

With the enlargement of the EU, citizens from Russia, Belarus and Ukraine found themselves materially and symbolically separated from “Europe”, according to Snyder, who noted that the hard border may have been helpful to authoritarian rulers like Lukashenko. By helping Ukraine, Poland is considering “lessons that were repeated in the past”, said Jabłoński, “because otherwise we could be victims again”.  

 

Source link

#danger #Russia #wins #Security #concerns #drive #Polands #support #Ukraine

Russian attacks taking place ’round the clock’, says President Zelensky

Post By World , , , , ,

The EU ratified more military aid to Ukraine worth EUR500mn on Monday, sources said. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the country was under constant Russian shelling and attacks, but the fight for Donbas is not over. Read our live blog to see how all the day’s events unfolded. All times are Paris time (GMT+2). 

This live page is no longer being updated. For more of our coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

10:33pm: Negotiations on German-made tanks for Ukraine: ‘It’s downright confusing’

Poland and several other countries have said they want to supply Ukraine with German-made Leopard 2 tanks for its defence against Russia, but German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has held back so far from sending them or allowing other NATO countries to do so.

“It’s downright confusing,” says FRANCE 24’s correspondent Nick Spicer in Berlin.


 

10:15pm: Ukraine’s Zelensky says personnel changes to be made Monday, Tuesday

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday that changes in senior positions in government and in the regions would be made within a day.

“There are already personnel decisions – some today, some tomorrow – regarding officials of various levels in ministries and other central government structures, as well as in the regions and in the law enforcement system,” Zelensky said in his nightly video address.

The president had previously pledged to crack down on corruption at all levels amid a series of allegations of bribe-taking and dubious practices.

10:02pm: Ukraine under constant Russian shelling and attacks, says President Zelensky

Russian “shelling and attacks are occurring round the clock”, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday in his nightly video message.

“But the battle for Donbas goes on. And the battle for the south goes on. We see how Russia is massing its forces and we know how to respond.”

8:58pm: Ex-FBI official pleads not guilty to violating US sanctions on Russia

Charles McGonigal, the former FBI agent arrested over the weekend for violating sanctions, pleaded not guilty on Monday in a Manhatten federal court.

7:18pm: Ex-FBI agent charged over ties to Russian oligarch

A former top FBI agent was charged Monday with violating US sanctions on Russia by working for indicted Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska.

Charles McGonigal is accused of investigating a rival oligarch in return for secret payments from Deripaska, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

6:07pm: Latvia tells Russian ambassador to leave

Latvia said on Monday that it has decided to downgrade its diplomatic relations with Russia and has asked the Russian ambassador to leave, hours after a similar move by fellow Baltic state, Estonia.

“The ambassador of Russia shall leave by 24 February 2023,” Latvia’s foreign ministry said in a statement, attributing the decision to Russaia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine and as a gesture of solidarity with Estonia and Lithuania.

5:58pm: Tanks needed as Moscow pushes towards towns in Zaporizhzhia region

Russia’s defence ministry said for the second straight day on Sunday that they were their position in Ukraine’s southern region of Zaporizhzhia was improving, but a Ukrainian military spokesperson said the situation there was “difficult” but stable.

FRANCE 24’s correspondent Gulliver Cragg who is on the ground in Kyiv says the fear of an imminent Russian offensive in this region is what is fueling Ukraine’s plea for tanks.

“It’s too early to say whether or not this activation of the front line in Zaporizhzhia and Russian attempts to move forward are going to amount to anything for the Russians, or whether they’re just going to continue to be successfully repelled by Ukrainians,” he said.


 

4:40pm: Ukrainian military unit says new tanks are ‘crucial for survival’

Ukraine needs several hundred tanks from its Western allies in order to conduct a counter-offensive against Russian forces to retake occupied territory, its government announced on Monday.

Expressing their frustration at Germany’s hesitancy to send in Leopold tanks, these soldiers from military units in the Kharkiv and Bakhmut regions say the vehicles could “significantly reduce casualties”. 

Watch France 24’s full report below: 


 

2:55pm: Former Wagner commander will not be deported to Russia, says lawyer

A former commander of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group will not be deported to Russia, his Norwegian lawyer said on Monday, following his detention by police.

“The risk of him being deported? It is zero,” Brynjulf Risnes, Andrei Medvedev’s lawyer, told Reuters.

>> Former commander of Russia’s mercenary group Wagner seeks asylum in Norway

Risnes said police detained Medvedev as there was “disagreement” between Medvedev and the police about the measures taken to ensure his safety. His lawyer emphasised that despite the ‘arrest’ the former mercenary was still being treated as a witness.

2:15pm: EU ministers approve EUR 500 million in military aid to Ukraine, say sources

European Union foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday approved a new tranche of military aid to Ukraine worth 500 million euros, three diplomatic sources told Reuters.

2:05pm: Hungary will not block EU move to provide more military aid to Ukraine, says foreign minister

Hungary will not block the European Union implementing a measure to provide more military aid to Ukraine, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said in a video on his Facebook page on Monday.

Szijjarto spoke as EU foreign ministers met to discuss more military aid for Ukraine. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said he hoped they would approve another 500 million euro tranche of support.

1:55pm: ‘Degree of training’ crucial for Ukraine tank deliveries

Germany announced on Sunday that it will not block Poland from sending Leopard tanks and the “next step, I think, will be that Poland will transfer the tanks”, former British military intelligence officer Frank Ledwidge told FRANCE 24.

“There’s one caveat here, though, which I think is really worth mentioning. The American chief of staff mentioned last week that Ukraine really shouldn’t consider an offensive until they’re properly trained on this new equipment. So it’s not just a question of the amount of tanks but it’s the degree of training that will be given to support that.”


 

1:40pm: Latvia tells Russian envoy to leave, in solidarity with Estonia

Latvia‘s foreign minister on Monday said he had told Russia‘s ambassador to Riga to leave the country by February 24, reducing diplomatic ties with Moscow in an act of solidarity with Estonia.

Russia said on Monday it was downgrading diplomatic relations with NATO member Estonia, accusing it of “total Russophobia”, and Tallinn responded by telling Moscow’s envoy to the Baltic nation to leave.

1:29pm: Zelensky ally threatens jailings after high-profile corruption claims

A top ally of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday corrupt officials would be rounded up and jailed as part of a zero-tolerance policy, after the most high-profile graft allegations since Russia invaded burst into public view.

Ukraine has a long history of battling corruption and shaky governance, though there had been few examples since Moscow’s invasion last year as Kyiv has fought back Russian troops and received Western financial and military support.

On Sunday, anti-corruption police said they had detained the deputy infrastructure minister on suspicion of receiving a $400,000 kickback to facilitate the import of generators into wartime Ukraine last September.

1:27pm: Germans were ‘under immense pressure’ from allies over tanks

Germany announced on Sunday that it will not block Poland from sending Leopard tanks.

“Certainly the Poles and others – particularly the Ukrainians – will be immensely encouraged by it,” said FRANCE 24 Chief Foreign Editor Robert Parsons. “After the meeting at Ramstein on Friday, the feeling was that it was going to take a lot of time before the Germans could be persuaded either to send Leopard tanks themselves or unblock the way for others to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine. […] It appears that the Germans have reassessed the situation; they have been under immense pressure from their allies to do so.”


 

1pm: Estonia expels Russian ambassador in tit-for-tat move

Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu said that the Russian ambassador will leave on February 7, in accordance with “the principle of parity” – hours after Russia announced it was expelling the Estonian envoy in Moscow. Both countries’ diplomatic missions will be headed by their chargés d’affaires.

The Estonian Foreign Ministry earlier this month ordered Russia to reduce the number of its embassy staff to eight diplomats and 15 administrative, technical and service staff members in order to “reach parity in embassy staff” by February 1.

12:34pm: Ukraine says it needs several hundred tanks to retake territory

Ukraine needs several hundred tanks from its Western allies in order to conduct a counter-offensive against Russian forces to retake occupied territory, President Volodymyr Zelensky‘s chief of staff said on Monday.

“We need tanks – not 10-20, but several hundred,” the official, Andriy Yermak, wrote on the Telegram app. “Our goal is (restoring) the borders of 1991 and punishing the enemy, who will pay for their crimes.”

Kyiv is pleading for its allies to supply tanks, in particular the German-made Leopard 2 which is used by many NATO members and which requires Berlin’s approval to be re-exported to Ukraine.

11:38am: ‘Poland forcing the idea of sending tanks’

As Warsaw seeks official approval from Berlin to send Ukraine German Leopard 2 tanks, FRANCE 24 correspondent Magdalena Chodownik noted that: “Poland is not only helping [Ukraine] in a military way, there are currently about a million refugees living in Poland from Ukraine.

“In addition, Poland spent about €2.15 billion on military aid to Ukraine. […] Poland is not going to stop there; they are now forcing the idea of sending tanks to Ukraine.”


 

10:30am: Kremlin says Ukrainians will suffer if Europe sends tanks

The Kremlin said on Monday that it was the Ukrainian people who would suffer if the West sends tanks to support Kyiv, as the question of whether Berlin will authorise Leopard tanks to be transferred to Ukraine remained unresolved.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said splits in Europe over whether to provide tanks to Kyiv showed there was “nervousness” within the NATO military alliance. He added that all countries bear responsibility for the consequences of “pumping” Ukraine with weapons.

10:22am: EU to approve new tranche of military aid to Ukraine on Monday, France says

EU countries will on Monday approve another €500 million ($544.90 million) tranche in military aid for Ukraine during a foreign ministers’ meeting, France’s Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said.

“I have no doubt this will be the decision we’ll take today,” Colonna said before entering the meeting in Brussels.

10:07am: Germany stresses importance of international support to Ukraine

EU countries and their international partners together should try to do everything possible to make sure Ukraine wins its war against Russia, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Monday.

“It’s important that we as an international community do everything we can to defend Ukraine, so that Ukraine wins and wins the right to live in peace and freedom again,” Baerbock said before a meeting of EU foreign ministers.

Baerbock declined to comment further when asked about the issue of exporting Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine.

9:49am: Poland could send Leopard tanks to Ukraine without Berlin’s approval, Polish PM says

Germany‘s approval for the re-export of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine is of secondary importance as Poland could send those tanks as part of a coalition of countries even without its permission, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Monday.

Germany would not stand in the way if Poland sent its German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Sunday in an interview with French television LCI.

9:28am: Too ‘early to say’ whether Russia will make progress in the Zaporizhzhia region

Amid concerns that Russia could renew attacks in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, Germany on Sunday gave Poland the green light to send the country German Leopard 2 tanks, which are well-suited to winter combat.

“One of the main reasons that Ukraine has been saying it needs tanks so urgently is because the Ukrainian leadership believes the Russians are planning offensives,” FRANCE 24’s Gulliver Cragg reported from Kyiv. “One of the areas where they said that they thought the Russian forces might renew their attacks was in Zaporizhzhia region. Russia claims to have annexed this region of Ukraine but in fact only controls part of it and does not control the regional capital Zaporizhzhia, which is still in Ukrainian hands.”

It is “too early to say” whether or not “Russian attempts to move forward” in the Zaporizhzhia region are going to amount to anything, Cragg added.


 

9:07am: Russia’s Lavrov visits ally South Africa amid rivalry with West

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was in South Africa on Monday for talks with one of its most important allies on a continent that is divided over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and related Western attempts to isolate it.

He was to meet South Africa’s foreign minister, Naledi Pandor, on a trip some opposition parties and the small Ukrainian community have condemned as insensitive.

A ministry spokesman said Lavrov had arrived in South Africa on Monday morning. He and Pandor are expected to hold a joint news conference around 10:00 GMT.

8:17am: Russian spy service says US-supplied rocket launchers deployed at Ukraine nuclear power stations

Russia‘s foreign intelligence service (SVR) accused Ukraine on Monday of storing Western-supplied arms at nuclear power stations across the country. It provided no evidence and Reuters was unable to verify the claims.

In a statement, the SVR said US-supplied HIMARS rocket launchers, air defence systems and artillery ammunition had been delivered to the Rivne nuclear power station in the northwest of Ukraine.

“The Ukrainian armed forces are storing weapons and ammunition provided by the West on the territory of nuclear power plants,” it said, adding that an arms shipment to the Rivne power station had taken place in the last week of December.

7:56am: German FM’s statement on Leopard tanks ‘seen as final word’ in Ukraine

Germany‘s foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said on Sunday that her government will not stand in the way if Poland sends Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

“The way the Ukrainian media are reporting it … the German foreign minister’s statement last night that Germany would authorise Poland to deliver the Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine if Poland made the formal demand, [is seen as] Germany’s final word on the matter; the ball is now in Poland’s court is the way that they’re seeing it,” FRANCE 24’s Gulliver Cragg reported from Kyiv.

“Poland, I think, would find it very hard to go back on the promises it’s very publicly made to send these tanks if they’ve got German authorisation.”


 

6:03am: EU to look at using confiscated Russian assets for reconstruction

European Council President Charles Michel has urged the block’s national leaders to push forward with talks on using $300 billion-worth of confiscated Russian central bank assets for the reconstruction of Ukraine, the Financial Times reported on Monday.

Michel said he wanted to explore the idea of managing the Russian central bank’s frozen assets to generate profits, which could then be earmarked for reconstruction efforts, the newspaper reported.

It is a question of justice and fairness and it must be done in line with legal principles, the FT quoted Michel as saying in an interview.

6am: Foreign minister says Germany ‘would not stand in the way’ if Poland decides to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine

Ukrainian officials have been calling on Western allies to supply them with the modern German-made tanks for months – but Berlin has so far held back from sending them, or allowing other NATO countries to do so.

Asked what would happen if Poland went ahead and sent its Leopard 2 tanks without German approval, Annalena Baerbock said on France’s LCI TV: “For the moment the question has not been asked, but if we were asked we would not stand in the way.”

Germany has been under heavy pressure to let Leopards go to Ukraine. But Scholz’s Social Democrat party is traditionally sceptical of military involvements and wary of sudden moves that could cause Moscow to further escalate.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP, AP and Reuters)

© France Médias Monde graphic studio

Source link

#Russian #attacks #place #clock #President #Zelensky

Sweden, Turkey not expected to back down in NATO accession tug of war

Post By World , , , , , , , , , ,

Sweden said on Sunday that Turkey is asking for too much in exchange for allowing it to join NATO, as Ankara effectively demands the impossible – that Stockholm override a decision by its own Supreme Court. But analysts say Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is unlikely to retract its condition, at least not before the all-important presidential elections scheduled in June. 

Sweden’s new conservative Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said that, as far as he is concerned, Stockholm has done enough for Ankara.

“Turkey confirms that we have done what we said we would do. But they also say that they want things that we can’t and won’t give them,” Kristersson told the Forsvar Security Conference in Sweden. 

Along with neighbouring Finland, Sweden made joining NATO its top foreign policy objective last year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine jolted them from their official neutrality stretching back through the Cold War. However, Erdogan made Turkey’s green light conditional – accusing Sweden of giving safe haven to people linked to Kurdish militant group the PKK and to the Gulenist movement Turkey holds responsible for the 2016 failed coup. 

Sweden – which has a large Kurdish diaspora of some 100,000 people – responded to Erdogan’s demands at a NATO summit back in June. Sweden and Finland agreed to “commit to prevent the activities of the PKK” on its territory.  

Stockholm then reversed an embargo on arms sales to Turkey and distanced itself from the YPG – a Syrian militia Western countries championed for its role fighting the Islamic State group but anathema to Ankara because of its close ties to the PKK, which has waged intermittent guerrilla campaigns against the Turkish state since 1984 and is classed as a terrorist organisation by the EU and US as well as Turkey. 

But Erdogan demands the extradition of journalist Bulent Kenes, an ex-editor-in-chief of the now closed Turkish newspaper Today’s Zaman, for his alleged role in the foiled coup.  

‘Not a political question’ 

The Swedish Supreme Court rejected Turkey’s demand in December, on the grounds that Kenes risked persecution for his politics if he were sent to Turkey. 

This is a judicial matter in a country run according to the separation of powers, and that gives the Swedish government no choice, noted Hakan Gunneriusson, a professor of political science at Mid Sweden University.

“Specific individuals can’t be expelled to Turkey from Sweden if there’s no legal foundation for it. It is a legal procedure, not a political question,” Gunneriusson said. 

If anything, Turkey’s intransigence on the question will only strengthen Swedish resolve, suggested Toni Alaranta, a senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in Helsinki. 

“Both Sweden and Finland are applying for NATO in order to secure our [political order based on] rule of law in times of possible external attack – not to throw it in a dustbin,” Alaranta said.  

This approach is popular amongst the Swedish electorate, according to a poll published by newspaper Dagens Nyheter last week, which showed that 79 percent of Swedes favour standing by the court ruling even if it holds up NATO accession.  

Turkey’s stance is expected to soon become the only remaining obstacle to Sweden and Finland joining NATO, since 28 of the Western alliance’s 30 members have validated their requests and the Hungarian parliament is set to give its approval later this month. 

‘Happy to wait things out’ 

Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto lamented that Ankara will probably not allow the two countries to join before Turkey’s presidential polls in June. Yet Sweden and Finland could well end up waiting for longer.  

Turkey is no stranger to rowing with fellow NATO members – as demonstrated by Erdogan’s public spats with French President Emmanuel Macron and, especially, Ankara’s decision to buy Russia’s S-400 air defence system in 2017 in the face of US uproar followed by sanctions. Erdogan also has a history of making life difficult for European countries to help advance his priorities in the Middle East – most notably when he threatened in 2019 to let millions of migrants into Europe unless European powers quietened their criticism of Turkey’s offensive on Kurdish forces in Syria. 

Of course, Russia’s war against Ukraine is the West’s most pressing geopolitical concern, making it a natural priority to bring Sweden and Finland into the NATO umbrella. But the war in Ukraine also highlight’s Turkey’s importance to the Western alliance, even if Ankara has been an awkward NATO member over the past decade. So far Erdogan has kept ties with both Russia and Ukraine while alienating neither – and that bore fruit for the rest of the world when Turkey brokered alongside the UN a deal to export Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea in July, before renewing the deal in November after Russia briefly withdrew. 

“Erdogan approaches the NATO alliance with the belief that Turkey’s interests are not taken seriously enough and that NATO needs Turkey,” observed Howard Eissenstat, a Turkey specialist at St. Lawrence University in New York state and the Middle East Institute in Washington DC. “He doesn’t see acrimony within the alliance as necessarily a bad thing, so long as it underlines that Turkey’s interests need to be addressed.” 

The Turkish government’s “core assumptions about how Western governments should pursue Turkey’s enemies are at odds with basic principles of rule of law”, Eissenstat said, adding that he thought: “Ankara knew this at the onset but believes the process serves its interests.” 

“Ankara is perfectly happy to wait things out,” he reasoned. “Those calculations may well change after Turkish elections when the domestic benefits decrease, but until then I doubt Ankara is likely to budge.” 

Indeed, Erdogan faces a tricky re-election campaign in June amid a woeful economic context, as a currency and debt crisis has racked Turkey since 2018.  

“The key issues in Turkey’s elections are, of course, mostly domestic – the abysmal economy and the question of [Syrian] refugees,” Eissenstat pointed out. “But Erdogan clearly benefits from taking a tough stance on Finnish and Swedish accession to NATO.” 

Not only do the Turkish public like to “see Turkish leaders playing important roles in the world”, Eissenstat said, it is also “probably true that many share Erdogan’s distrust of the West and belief that Western governments have given safe haven to Turkey’s enemies”. 

So the Swedish-Turkish tug of war is set to continue. However, perhaps the most revealing statement at that Swedish defence conference was not Kristersson’s refusal to override the Supreme Court – but rather NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s suggestion that the alliance has already extended its security umbrella to the two Scandinavian countries. “It is inconceivable that NATO would not act if the security of Sweden and Finland were threatened,” he said.

Source link

#Sweden #Turkey #expected #NATO #accession #tug #war