Could the Ukrainian Kursk incursion become a political turning point ?

While Ukrainian forces extend their control on Russian territory, Kyiv’s military is losing ground in the Donbas. The Kursk incursion could either play a significant political role in the war’s outcome or become a military nightmare for both sides.

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The Russians and the Ukrainians seem to be fighting in two parallel dimensions: both contending armies claim military success in two different regions.

While the Ukrainian incursion in the western Russian territory of Kursk seems to be steadily gaining ground, the Russians are close to achieving a goal of their own in the Donbas after they took the town of Niu-York and advance on a key transport junction of Pokrovsk.

In the Kursk area, the Ukrainian forces are trying to seize Korenovo. The fall of this city would allow them to strengthen their defences in Russian territory and build a coherent “buffer zone” to protect Kharkiv and other northern cities.

Such a buffer zone, stated by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to be the incursion’s main goal, would be a major operational success for the Ukrainians.

The two sides’ different goals lead to different measures of success: officials in Kyiv are keeping a close eye on the number of square kilometres of Russian territory that their military controls, while the Russian forces aim to dismantle the Ukrainian fortifications that have been built in the Donbas since 2014.  

Both offensives are also happening at different speeds: Ukraine’s advance in the Kursk region is currently faster than Russia’s in the Donbas, and while Ukraine may be forced to withdraw there, it’s already damaged transport infrastructure that could further hinder Russia’s forward march.

Political and diplomatic leverage

Ukraine’s surprise offensive in Kursk raised eyebrows across the world, with its true purpose remaining something of a mystery.

Some experts believe Kyiv may have had the US elections at the back of its mind when it launched the attack.

“One of the explanations of this operation by the Ukrainians is to gain leverage because elections in the US are coming,” said Joni Askola, a Finnish military analyst from Prague’s Charles University. “A lot of partners and allies of Ukraine are maybe starting to push this idea of negotiations and Ukraine wants to keep control over that process in case they are forced into negotiations.”

“So, by taking land in Russian territory, they [the Ukrainians] keep control of this process, make it less likely that they would get forced into any negotiations,” Askola added.

All eyes will turn to the US presidential election in the coming months, and its result will have a direct influence on the Western world’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

In the event its Western allies pressured it into negotiations, the Ukrainians needed to have an ace up their sleeve that they could present to all parties, be they partners or aggressors, according to experts.

Another objective of the Kursk incursion was to draw Russian troops away from the southeastern front. Yet observers have said that so far Moscow does not seem to have significantly reduced its military presence in the Donbas and Kyiv has actually ordered civilians to evacuate the city of Pokrovsk — likely Russia’s next target.

Raising the stakes?

Following its relative success so far in Kursk, could Ukraine be tempted to up the ante and open a new front by the sea in the south?

Ukraine’s special forces have proved to be quite skilled in water operations, having inflicted huge damage to the Russian fleet and its coastal facilities, particularly in Crimea.

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Kyiv’s allies have also boosted its amphibious arsenal, with Sweden, Finland and others providing it with weaponry and speed boats.

“In terms of logistics, this [opening a front in Crimea] could be quite complicated and it would require a lot of manpower, pontoons, and other costly material,” Askola said. “Crossing the Dnipro River in the area of Kherson could be also an option, but it would require a lot of resources too.”  

Regardless of its next steps, Ukraine has taken control of Russian territory.

It’s the first time since 1941 that a foreign army has violated Russian soil, which could have a lasting effect in the minds of Ukraine’s allies and the Russian people themselves, even if Kyiv is eventually forced to withdraw.  

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President Zelenskyy had said that the incursion into Kursk has proved that the Kremlin’s supposed red lines for retaliation are a bluff, adding that Ukraine would not have needed to physically invade Russian territory had its allies not prohibited it from using their weapons to strike targets on Russian soil from afar.

Ukraine most likely destroyed the important Seym bridges in Kursk with Western-supplied guided bombs dropped by Soviet-made Ukrainian planes, according to Askola.

“While it is unlikely that they have used the recently delivered F16 to strike directly the bridges, we cannot rule out that the F16, armed with AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, might have been used to protect the operations of the MiG 29 of the Sukhoi 27 (from Russian interceptor aircraft),” he said.

Kyiv was also allegedly helped in its offensive by the Free Russia Legion — a Ukrainian-based paramilitary unit of Russian citizens which opposes the Russian regime of President Vladimir Putin and its invasion of Ukraine.

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“Operations like the Kursk incursion right now and also, for example, the coup attempt by Prigozhin last year are examples that show that Russia is really difficult to control and that Putin’s regime is not successful in controlling Russia, or at least doesn’t have as much of a control as it’s trying to portray to the world and to its own population,” Askola said.

So far, the Kremlin has slowly been mounting an increased defence against Ukraine’s attacks on its territory, but nothing major has yet manifested. Nevertheless, many analysts are not ruling out a Russian retaliation with renewed strength, which may even involve another mobilisation of military reservists.

“Russia could potentially mobilise 300,000 people more,” Askola said. “And that would, of course, make a big difference.”

“In the short term, it would be very bad for Ukraine. In the long term, it could actually accelerate Putin’s downfall in Russia,” he said.

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What is NATO’s plan for Ukraine beyond just words?

Like in the 1950s, NATO seeks an effective strategic doctrine to navigate a new, challenging environment. The first step may involve gradually integrating Ukraine, but only after the conflict with Russia ends.

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While gathering in Washington to celebrate the alliance’s 75th anniversary, NATO’s heads of state and government have taken the first step in designing the architecture of European security.

“Ukraine’s future is in NATO. We will continue to support it on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership,” they announced in a joint statement.

Could this be a post-brainstorming proposal or a bid aimed at becoming an actual political and strategic goal?

Point 16 of NATO’s Washington Summit Declaration states: “We reaffirm that we will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met.”

This means that despite the firm support expressed by some members, such as the Nordic bloc, the Baltics, Poland, Romania, and the UK, the consensus for Ukraine eventually joining the alliance is not unanimous among all 32 NATO countries.

And, last but not least, the “conditions” depend on Ukraine achieving relative military and security stability. Hostilities with Russia must cease, but even a simple ceasefire currently appears to be a distant prospect.

“The stalemate in Ukraine will continue to be a headache for the alliance. Accession of Ukraine to NATO will depend on further major reforms within the country, on ending the war, and on consensus among the allies that the alliance is ready for this: three major conditions that are not at all fulfilled,” says Jan Wouters, a lecturer from the Catholic University of Leuven, KU Leuven.

NATO’s reason to be

The main outcome of NATO’s 75th anniversary is that the alliance appears to have rediscovered its purpose. Point 6 of the Summit Declaration notes that “more than two-thirds of Allies have fulfilled their commitment of at least 2% of GDP annual defense spending and commend those Allies who have exceeded it”.

The current circumstances and growing global instability place security issues at the forefront of national budgetary priorities.

Jan Wouters says, “Russia is seen as more aggressive and dangerous as ever, requiring actions on land, in the air, in the seas and outer space, and the allies also discuss the ever-mounting challenges that China poses”.

Since 2014, following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the land grab in the Donbas region by local pro-Russian separatist militias backed by Russian military intelligence GRU special forces, Ukraine has been progressively integrating into NATO structures.

“We affirm our determination to support Ukraine in building a force capable of defeating Russian aggression today and deterring it in the future,” the conference’s documents say.  

“To that end, we intend to provide a minimum baseline funding of €40 billion within the next year,** and to provide sustainable levels of security assistance for Ukraine to prevail, taking into account Ukraine’s needs, our respective national budget procedures, and the bilateral security agreements which allies have concluded with Ukraine.”

‘Long-term security assistance’

“Irreversibility” refers to the deep and comprehensive integration of Ukrainian defence and security with its Western supporters, emphasising that simply providing military assistance is insufficient.

From a Long-Term Security Assistance perspective, Ukraine may require a structural approach. Are NATO members, including Europeans and Americans, capable of creating the necessary infrastructures for this purpose?

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“The problem is that we are facing a strong military inflation. So the same artillery shells, for example, that 155mm shells that are much used and in need by the Ukrainians, have gone up in price almost fourfold,” says Bob Deen, an Eastern Europe and Russian analyst for Clingendael Institute in the Netherlands.

“The (Europeans) need to first buy it for the Ukrainians and then also buy it for themselves from the same suppliers who already have waiting lists and who have difficulties ramping up their production.”

According to Deen, the solution would involve increasing production within Ukraine itself.

“Already, several Western companies are either opening factories in Ukraine or exploring opportunities to do so. Production costs are significantly lower in Ukraine compared to Western Europe, where there is also a shortage of qualified personnel.”

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“And it’s very difficult to open, for example, a munitions factory in a country like the Netherlands, which is very densely populated, and not many people want a munitions factory in their backyard. Well, as in Ukraine, this is easier,” he adds.

“But then you face the challenge of Russia wanting to attack this factory. Therefore, it’s essential to enhance Ukraine’s air defence capabilities to protect these facilities during construction. I believe the solution lies in implementing a combination of these measures to maintain American engagement, particularly under a Trump administration,” concludes Deen.

Establishing arms manufacturing in Ukraine would make its path to NATO irreversible.

The urgent military situation in Ukraine and the immediate need to support its army necessitate short-term decisions, putting pressure on the European arms industry to act swiftly under these conditions.

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“We need to quickly purchase any available weapons on the market. This requires buying non-European weaponry, which negatively impacts the capacity of the European defence industry to develop its own production,” says Federico Santopinto, Senior Research Fellow at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) in Paris.

“Financing the EU industry is a budgetary priority. This is why the European countries within the North Atlantic Alliance prioritise avoiding NATO’s pivot to Asia and remain focused on Europe, particularly the Russian threat”.

If this is the priority, Ukraine must set a clear goal, such as achieving irreversible integration with the West, especially for strategic purposes.

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Director Kirill Serebrennikov talks about war with Euronews

Director Kirill Serebrennikov was a political prisoner in Russia before the war. Now he lives in Berlin. He tells Euronews about his protests, art and how the war changed everything for him.

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For someone who neither studied film nor opera, Russian director Kirill Serebrennikov has done a remarkable job of making a name for himself. Having directed well over 100 performances, received standing ovation from the renowned Cannes film festival for his film ‘Leto,’ Serebrennikov is one of the most respected and daring directors of this century. He has worked directing in Moscow and operas across Europe including Amsterdam and Vienna.

Having spent almost two years under house arrest for allegedly embezzling funds – which he defends as a politically motivated trumped-up charge, Serebrennikov now lives in Berlin.

But being born in the former Soviet Union, is complex. The director is a staunch critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, not just for the war, but also for Russia’s crippling stance on LGBTQ rights. Before he left Russia, he took part in anti-Putin protests and staged an opera that satirised corrupt Kremlin politics.

After he was denied state funding for a biopic that deals with Tchaikovsky’s closeted homosexuality, Serebrennikov secured financing for his 2016 film ‘The Student’ from the sanctioned Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich. In 2017, the following year, he was accused of fraud relating to a performance of a performing arts project, which prosecutors allege didn’t take place. According to Human Rights Watch, the show was indeed staged. These charges led to a three-year legal ordeal, where charges were dropped and then restarted. Serebrennikov was placed under house arrest, until he was handed a three-year suspended jail sentence, and ordered to pay back 129 million rubles (€1.8m).

Serebrennikov was still in Moscow when the war broke out, managing to leave a week or later, in early March, as soon as he got his passport back, that had been confiscated as part of his punishment into the alleged fraud charges.

But what exactly does he look forward to the most when the war in Ukraine ends?

“That is a good question,” he says as he ponders.

We are in Kirill’s studio in the heart of Berlin. As we arrived, aggressive shouting seeped out of the next room. For a short moment, we wondered what on earth could be going on behind the closed door, but then we came to realise that the voices were only recorded, and he was editing one of the films he will release this year.

After thinking about our question for a moment about what he’ll do when the war ends, eyes darting around the room behind his glasses, cogs whirring around in his brain, he looks at us earnestly.

War is good for Russia

“If I am frank with you and with myself, I would say that [the war] might continue for longer. Because for the Russian power state, a war is very good. It is something which is of real importance.”

There is something very melancholic about hearing this from the former director of Moscow’s celebrated Avant Garde Gogol Theatre. The theatre is regarded by many to have been a beacon of freedom. Serebrennikov led the artistic direction of the theatre for 9 years until 2021. The final play, before doors closed in 2022 and the theatre was rebranded as a drama theatre, was called ‘I Don’t Take Part In War.’

“It it’s not possible to have it like we do in film and just cut and everything comes back to the day of 23 February 2022. It’s not possible. After this war, Russia will be a completely different country. After this war Europe will be a completely other place. I think the world will be completely different,” Serebrennikov shakes his head. The gravity of the situation hangs in the air.

But what about those still in Russia? But what do those people who are still there think?

“They are surviving. They are pretending that there is no pain. Everything is OK,” he says many of them are unable to leave because of family, business or political reasons. “They keep smiling. Sometimes they are dancing, they are going to the clubs, they are sitting in the restaurants. But I understand and I feel it by speaking with them or by some hints that the pain is becoming stronger and stronger. And this this discomfort or how to say, cognitive dissonance, is becoming huge. Absolutely massive. And to the people try to do something with this depression or some psychological issues and so on. It can’t be so easy as propaganda describes, where everyone votes for what the power says. No, it’s on the level of personal being, of personal existence. It’s much more complicated.”

He says he needed to leave when he felt like the ideas he was hearing within Russia were the opposite to what he felt, and because he couldn’t bear to be part of a state that destroys another state.

What does he miss most about his life in Russia?

“The Russia I knew doesn’t exist anymore.”

“I’m afraid the Russia I lived in and I know, I knew, doesn’t exist anymore. It’s now it’s a state of violence, full of military people,” he adds. “The war always comes back, and it transforms normally into civil war or into self-killing or into something terrible happening inside the country.”

He loves his life in Germany and says he’s never had work cancelled here or oppressed, that people can protest and that ideas are free. He particularly appreciates how multicultural and international it is in Berlin.

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His outlook on the future of Russia is bleak. He says Russia is often in stages of war, including a “hot phase.” He counts on his ringed fingers the number of ways he believes the Russian state profits a lot from the war.

“They get a lot from the war. I mean, business wise, controlling the country wise, how they organise the society into in this way of war. Everything is much better for them. That’s why I would say that there are a lot of people who, who have a huge interest in what’s happening in the war state. And less people who are war who are wishing to stop it. War kills everything. War kills everything alive.”

What about his family?

He has a 90-year-old father who can’t leave because of his age and lives with a nurse. Serebrennekov speaks to him every day on Zoom or Whatapp. “I worry that I can’t hold his hand or can’t hug him or kiss him.”

He ponders for a moment, keeping his hands clasped on his lap, massaging one thumb with the other.

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What does victory look like?

“What is the victory for Ukraine? To take Moscow or to destroy Russia? I think all of us are quite lost in terms and we don’t understand what a victory would look like for both sides.” The other thumb now massages the one underneath.

“The people are killing each other for what? For strange places I can’t even remember the I don’t know the names of this tiny cities they are killing each other for. It’s terrible what when I watch the all the pictures with it, abandoned to tiny cities with a crashed to buildings with a like, like surrealistic landscape, is what happening.” Serebrennikov’s mother was from Ukraine.

Official figures from the OHCHR in September put the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine at over 10,000, and that’s not including the soldiers on both sides, where the figures are murky.

Serebrennikov also says that the scale of this war surprised many, including him.

“How is it possible to sell your sons for money to the army or how it’s possible to not understand that all propaganda is bullshit and terrible lie. How is it possible? I thought that to the people in Russia are smart or can divide, lie from the truth or truth from the lie or can figure out what power makes to them.”

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Serebrennikov, who grew up in the former Soviet Union, in Rostov-on-Don to be precise, which is located near the Ukrainian border, explains to us why he felt he absolutely could not stay in modern day Russia when the war broke out. It draws comparisons with the reaction in German politics ever since the Nazis.

“Never again. Never again. It was a main motto. If you ask me what war is and never again it was said in Soviet in all Soviet books and all Soviet films. I was kind of formed by very nice Russian films against [the war]. It’s war dramas, but all of them were against the war, saying never again, war is the most terrible thing ever. And now the new power in Russia. They try to erase or to forget all this experience and to replace it by new ideology. About militarisation, that we have to fight to war is a very good if you have something to die for, then you are lucky.” He calls this war the Cold War 2.0.

Russia’s complicated relationship with freedom

Fast forward a few decades, following the collapse of the Soviet Union and Serennekov believes Russia simply wasn’t ready for the level of freedom and liberalism that the West enjoy.

“The freedom was not a feature that normally belongs to Russia in general. The idea of freedom was quite complex,” he says, adding that the concept of freedom should have been introduced slowly and carefully. “Now it’s all destroyed. Freedom for them doesn’t exist.”

Instead, he feels, many in Russia feel like it’s better to have power over freedom. “Nothing but power can rule Russia. It’s the main idea and of course it’s completely opposite to what we expected and to what we were working on while being there. The ideal war is opposite to ideal freedom. Being in the war, in the state of war, you can mobilise all the society against, as they say, the Fifth Column, the people who are not with us.”

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And what about those who tried desperately to hold on to the idea of freedom, people including Serebrennikov, who famously directed an opera via smuggled out USB sticks through his lawyer whilst sitting under house arrest.

The state decided to “kick them out or put them into the prisons or to call them the foreign agents and so on. And so help the power to stay. All the people who hold the power, are on the top of this pyramid.”

But Serebrennikov doesn’t believe this war is the biggest threat humans are facing.

“We need to work on it. It’s for me it’s much more important and dangerous than all wars and conflicts and local conflicts or global conflicts.” One thumb massages the other again.

He urges the world to “stop what you’re doing. Stop it. Because climate change is coming and all your fighting for will be completely in vain.” Serebrennikov sees climate change as the “most terrible thing we need to figure out.”

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But he also sees hope for the people as part of his purpose:

“My job is to use art or use music or theatre to make the people think. That’s it, my main job. For me to look [at the world] we live in – in a terrible, stressful situation. We live in anxiety. It’s really important to help ourselves, to overcome all this and probably theatre, music, contemporary art, dance, or something else is the best tools to, to not to turn mad completely, or remind ourself that we are humans and we have to stay human.”

He says the power in Russia is determined to make the people forget their humans, but other artists also have a responsibility “to explain to people that the main value is human’s life. Each person is very important for this world.” It’s beautiful and bittersweet, an antidote to the horrors of the world.

“We need to create more beauty. We need to create more music, something which gives the people the feeling of something valuable and not terrible and disgusting.”

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A Ukrainian woman remembers life under Russian occupation

Anastasiia lived in Kherson and was preparing for the birth of her second child when Russia started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. She didn’t want to live under occupation, so she decided to take the risk and leave.

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Anastasiia remembers waking up in shock and disbelief at five in the morning on the 24th of February 2022. “I woke up because our friends called us, telling us Russian tanks were rolling in from occupied Crimea”, she remembered, adding that she only really grasped the severity of the situation when her daughter’s kindergarten informed them a couple of hours later that they wouldn’t open. “They’re usually always open, even during the holidays”, she explains.

“We didn’t know if Kyiv was occupied”

Anastasiia thought the Russian forces would turn around. After a few days, Kherson, where she lived, was occupied and Anastasiia, who was pregnant, her husband and little daughter found themselves living under Russian occupation. She remembers that in the first few weeks, Ukrainian supplies couldn’t reach the city, food became scarce, and people were scared of starving. 

“It was chaos. People were trying to rob supermarkets and no one could blame them”, she recalled. “It wasn’t safe to leave the house,” she says, adding that staying inside, however, wasn’t any safer. Around a month later, the Russian supplies came from occupied Crimea and the situation somewhat stabilised. 

Besides limited access to food in the first month, Anastasiia remembers that their Ukrainian SIM cards didn’t work any more, implying they had no idea what was going on in the rest of the country. “We didn’t know if Kyiv was occupied,” she said. 

“Kherson is Ukraine”

Residents took to the streets to protest just a few weeks into Russia’s occupation of Kherson They carried Ukrainian flags and signs such as “Kherson is in Ukraine”. Anastasiia remembers the protest with awe.

“We had two revolutions in the last two decades, when we’re unhappy with something, we protest”, says Anastasiia. In the end, the protest in March 2022 was dispersed by Russian soldiers with force, using gunfire, stun grenades and rubber bullets. Several people were reportedly injured. 

Based on an allegedly leaked letter from an FSB whistleblower, there were plans to implement a ‘great terror’ to suppress protests in Kherson, stating that residents would be “taken from their homes in the middle of the night”, as reported by The Times.

The acts of protests didn’t stop, though. “There is a movement called ‘Yellow Ribbon’. Some people put little yellow ribbons [or Ukrainian flags] on the street, on trees or railings, and when you see it, it was a sign of resistance, and you knew, you weren’t alone”, says Anastasiia. The movement’s founder Ivan said in an interview with the Kyiv Independent that the concept behind ‘Yellow Ribbon’ was to ensure that acts of resistance were simple, safe, and accessible for everyday people. According to the Kyiv Independent, the movement now has 12 coordinators in major occupied cities.

People caught participating in the ‘Yellow Ribbon‘-movement face severe repercussions from Russian-controlled authorities, including secretive and likely fabricated charges leading to imprisonment. This suppression is part of Russia’s broader effort to stifle Ukrainian grassroots opposition to its occupation of Ukrainian territory. 

According to the organisation Human Rights in Ukraine, 35-year-old Mykola Onuk was sentenced last month to five years in prison on “secretive, and almost certainly fabricated, charges initiated several months after his detention, likely for pro-Ukrainian graffiti associated with the ‘Yellow Ribbon’ peaceful resistance movement.”

A couple of weeks later, the residents of Kherson were offered Russian SIM cards, which many accepted out of desperation. It was then that she was able to catch up with everything that had been happening so far, such as the siege of Mariupol.

Anastasiia gives birth while living under occupation

On the 9th of March 2022, Russian forces bombed a hospital serving as a children’s hospital and maternity ward in Mariupol. At least four people were killed, 16 were injured, and the attack led to at least one stillbirth. Anastasiia, who was pregnant at the time Kherson was under Russian occupation, was due to give birth soon. Seeing photos and reading what happened in Mariupol terrified her.

“I was really scared. Leaving the house during nighttime was dangerous, so my doctor and I decided to have a C-Section instead of waiting for labour”, she recalls. “It was absolutely terrifying. I felt I wasn’t only risking my own life, but also the life of my baby”, Anastasiia says.

Luckily, the birth of her second child went well and Anastasiia and her son were healthy. Due to Russian forces burning down the regional office of the State Migration Service of Ukraine, she couldn’t get her son’s documents issued. 

ISW: Hospitals are threatening to take newborns from mothers if neither parent can prove Russian citizenship

In the temporary-occupied territories of Luhansk and Donetsk, possession of a Russian passport is essential for proving property ownership and retaining access to healthcare and retirement benefits. Failure to obtain the forced new passport by July 1st 2023, as mandated by a new Russian law in occupied territories, may lead to imprisonment as a ‘foreign citizen’, risking custody loss, imprisonment, or worse.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported recently that in the Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast, hospitals are threatening to take newborns from mothers if neither parent can prove Russian citizenship, according to Artem Lysohor of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration. 

Starting May 6th 2024, proof of Russian citizenship is required for parents to be discharged with their newborns. The ISW reports this action violates the Convention on Genocide, which prohibits measures to prevent births within a group.

“I was scared every day”

Whilst living under occupation in Kherson, Anastasiia remembers being terrified every day. Life was uncertain and dangerous. Even something normal, such as texting, turned into something that could endanger your life. “Phones were checked regularly. They checked messages, which Telegram channels one subscribed to and even photos”, adds Anastasiia. “We had to delete everything. Anything pro-Ukrainian was dangerous. If they found anything that connects you to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, you were brought to a filtration camp.”

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Ukrainians living under Russian occupation now can face up to 20 years in prison for expressing pro-Ukrainian views, additionally, there have been reports of homes being raided and children and adults being kidnapped and deported to the Russian Federation.

In a speech at this year’s Lviv Media Forum conference, Nobel Peace Prize Laureate and human rights lawyer Oleksandra Matviichuk said: “Occupation doesn’t reduce human suffering, it simply makes it invisible.”

“Culture can be a tool of resistance”

“I think they wanted to use Kherson as a ‘model’”, says Anastasiia. Compared to occupied Donetsk, occupied Luhansk and occupied Crimea, there was no active fighting and shelling in the city while she was there, she remembers. 

Russians looting museums, such as the Contemporary Art Museum of Kherson and destroying Ukrainian books has been well documented. Artists, such as Viacheslav Mashnytskyi, who mysteriously disappeared during the occupation of Kherson. Currently, there is no information on his whereabouts or fate.

“Culture can be a tool of resistance, a carrier of memory and self-determination, freedom and independent thinking. It can also be a tool of expansion, displacement of another culture, a tool of power. Therefore, in the occupied territories, cultural agents become priority targets for Russian soldiers”, says curator Natalia Matsenko

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“The occupiers often try to pull people from the creative sphere over to their side, forcing them to collaborate. And in case of refusal, they destroy or imprison, deprive them of their voice in any way. This is not a new tradition: in Soviet times, especially under Stalin repressions, it was precisely cultural figures who disagreed with the authorities who were exterminated as the greatest threat to the stability of the regime. Thousands of writers, artists, theatre artists, musicians were shot, imprisoned or sent into exile”, she adds.

The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe’s (PACE) Committee for Culture has recently recognised that the erasure of Ukrainian cultural identity is being used by Russia as a weapon in its war against Ukraine. This act is considered a facet of a genocidal policy aimed at annihilating the Ukrainian nation.

Taking the risk: Leaving occupied Kherson

Living under such conditions and constant fear for her and her family’s life, Anastasiia wanted to leave Kherson. “I had a two-year-old toddler and a newborn, I didn’t want them to grow up under these circumstances under occupation”, she says. 

There are humanitarian corridors that should allow Ukrainians to leave the Russian-occupied territory or city, however, these aren’t safe. “These corridors are frequently bombed or soldiers just shoot the people trying to leave in their cars”, says Anastasiia. There was no guarantee of safety and survival for Ukrainians trying to reach freedom. It shows therefore how desperate people are who are trying to leave the occupied territories, such as a 98-year-old woman, who walked almost 10 kilometres to reach Ukrainian-controlled territory. 

Despite the risk, Anastasiia decided to organise her family’s journey to escape occupation in the summer of 2022. Her husband was unsure in the beginning, considering the risks of being killed by Russian forces on their way. In the end, they decided to leave their home and embarked on a dangerous journey that forced them to cross around 40 Russian checkpoints. Finally making it to the last checkpoint to close to safety, they were met by a long row of hundreds of cars.

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“We have two little children, please let us go”

“At the last checkpoint, nearly 700 cars were waiting to reach safety in Ukraine. They processed around 100 cars a day. We were number 690”, remembers Anastasiia. Out of desperation, she asked a soldier if they could somehow open another line since they had a toddler and a newborn with them. “I pleaded with them: We have two little children, please let us go.” Anastasiia was lucky and a second lane for people with children under one year was opened. They only had to wait one day to reach the final checkpoint. 

There, their car was checked. “They took our phones, laptops and all other electronics to another guard who screened them”, she recalled. “Other soldiers checked everything in our car, every single shoe.” Terrified that they would be sent back or worse, killed, Anastasiia felt a massive weight off her shoulders when she and her family were allowed to pass. 

On 23rd September 2022, Russia initiated ‘referendums’ to annex four occupied regions of Ukraine. Ukrainian officials reported that people were prevented from leaving some occupied areas during the four-day vote, armed groups entered homes, and employees were threatened with job loss if they didn’t participate.

Less than a month later, Kherson was liberated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the 11th of November 2022. Parts of the Kherson Oblast, namely the territory on the left bank of the Dnieper River, is still under Russian control.

“Russian terror relies on unpredictability”

Anastasiia and her family ended up moving to Kyiv. There, Anastasiia had to finally get her son’s documents issued, which took her around a month of proving with scans and other documents that she was his mother. Not living under occupation hasn’t taken away her constant fear, though. 

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“I’m scared every day. Russian terror relies on unpredictability, and I know my chances of being killed are much lower than in a car accident. But it feels like I can influence my safety in a car by being cautious. Meanwhile, the source of danger now remains unpredictable and scary”, Anastasiia says.

Moving to Kyiv wasn’t the only change in her life. Russian is her mother tongue, but since the full-scale invasion, she doesn’t want to speak it any more. “Since the full-scale invasion, I’ve read up on Ukrainian history and how Ukrainian identity and culture was suppressed by the Russians throughout the centuries. I speak Ukrainian now, my children’s mother tongue is Ukrainian. I feel like I’ve finally reclaimed my Ukrainian identity”, says Anastasiia. 

Freezing the war

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, there have been calls for negotiations and appeasements with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In March, Pope Francis ‘advised’ Ukraine to have the courage to raise the ‘white flag’ and negotiate an end to the war with Russia.

For Ukrainians, ‘freezing the war’ means living under occupation. Living under Russian occupation means living in constant fear, facing threats of violence, and enduring profound hardships, as shown by harrowing accounts of rape and other war crimes. 

Anastasiia doesn’t understand the calls to freeze the war. “Freezing the war in the occupied territories would lead to a mass exodus of those who can afford to leave. Only the elderly, the sick, and those without the means to start anew would remain, eventually obtaining Russian passports. The most alarming aspect is the Russians taking over schools and using Russian textbooks, effectively rewriting history for children”, explains Anastasiia.

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On the 8th of May 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree establishing the state policy on historical education, emphasising the dissemination of reliable historical knowledge and fostering patriotism. The policy aims to counteract foreign attempts to distort Russian history and includes measures such as updating educational programs, creating unified history textbooks, and promoting historical and cultural heritage. The decree also plans to develop digital platforms for educational materials, support non-state historical museums, and regulate media to “prevent historical falsifications”.



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Death of Indians in Russia-Ukraine war Status and accountability of mercenaries in international law

The story so far: On June 11, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) acknowledged the tragic loss of two Indian nationals who were recruited by the Russian Army amidst the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The MEA in a press statement said that the Indian Embassy in Moscow has strongly raised this issue with the Russian Ambassador in New Delhi and authorities in Moscow, urging for the swift release and return of all Indian nationals currently serving with the Russian Army.

In February, The Hindu reported for the first time that Indians were getting killed while fighting on behalf of Russia in the Ukraine war. Over the past year, nearly 100 Indians have been recruited by the Russian Army after being reportedly duped by agents with the lure of money and a Russian passport. Contracts signed by these recruits stipulate a “no leave or exit policy” before six months of service, with salaries amounting to ₹1.5 lakh to ₹ 2 lakh per month. In January, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree simplifying the process of obtaining Russian citizenship for foreigners who sign a minimum one-year contract with the Army.

At least 30 Indians have so far contacted the MEA and the Indian Embassy in Moscow, seeking help to return. These tragic deaths highlight a disturbing reality — Indians are increasingly falling prey to labour trafficking rackets after being unable to secure jobs domestically, leading to their recruitment as mercenaries in international armed conflicts.

The MEA’s response

The MEA has issued a press note advising Indians to exercise caution while seeking employment opportunities in Russia. In March, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) said that it had filed a first information report (FIR) booking 15 individuals and four companies for their alleged role in the “trafficking of gullible Indian nationals to Russia and duping them for better employment and high-paying jobs.” In May, the central agency divulged that it had made four arrests in the case.

Who are mercenaries?

The distinction between conventional combatants and mercenaries is a fundamental cornerstone of international humanitarian law (IHL). A combatant is typically a member of the armed forces of a party to the conflict, whereas a mercenary is recruited from a third-party state unrelated to the conflict. Mercenaries usually engage in hostilities motivated primarily by personal gain as opposed to the virtues of patriotism associated with regular combatants. Article 47 of Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions (API) envisages six cumulative conditions for a person to qualify as a mercenary. The person i) should be specially recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict, ii) has taken a direct part in the hostilities, iii) is motivated to take part in the hostilities essentially by the desire for private gain and, in fact, is promised, by or on behalf of a party to the conflict, material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar ranks and functions in the armed forces of that party, iv) is neither a national of a party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a party to the conflict, v) is not a member of the armed forces of a party to the conflict, vi) has not been sent by a state which is not a party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces.

Under customary IHL, being a mercenary itself does not constitute a specific crime. However, if captured, mercenaries are not entitled to prisoner-of-war status or any protected categories under the Geneva Conventions. This allows for their prosecution for the commission of war crimes or other grave breaches of humanitarian law. They may also face charges under the domestic laws of the detaining nation. Nevertheless, mercenaries qualify for humane treatment in accordance with the fundamental guarantees of humanitarian law, as outlined under Article 75 of the API.

However, over time, African states began expressing reservations about this definition, as it only addressed international armed conflicts and overlooked civil wars, where mercenary activities were most prevalent. This led to the adoption of the Organization of African Unity Convention for the Elimination of Mercenarism in Africa in 1977, which included a more expansive definition of mercenaries.

Similarly, in 1989, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) adopted the International Convention against the Recruitment, Use, Financing and Training of Mercenaries that criminalised the recruitment, use, financing and training of mercenaries and also promoted inter-State cooperation in this regard. It also widened the definition of mercenaries as provided under the API to include “persons recruited for the purpose of participating in a concerted act of violence aimed at overthrowing a government or otherwise undermining the constitutional order of a State, or at undermining the territorial integrity of a State.”

Limitations of the existing regime

One of the major challenges of the existing regulatory regime is the lack of a clear, unequivocal, and comprehensive legal definition of what constitutes a mercenary. This is compounded by the fact that the domestic laws of most states do not criminalise mercenary activity. Additionally, the definition outlined under Article 47 of the API does not include within its ambit foreign military personnel integrated into the armed forces of another state — such as the Gurkhas (soldiers from Nepal who have served in the British Army since the 1800s). It also fails to establish mechanisms for holding accountable foreigners employed as advisors and trainers.

Dr. Shubha Prasad, Assistant Professor of International Relations at the Hertie School, Berlin highlighted the emerging trend of private military and security companies (PMSCs) gradually taking over roles previously associated with mercenaries. “These for-profit companies provide a range of services from combat to food supplies for troops. The legal framework surrounding the operations of PMSCs is more loosely defined and relies heavily on a country’s domestic legal capacity,” she said.

For instance, the operations of the controversial Wagner Group in Russia have been increasingly subjected to international scrutiny. Despite being registered as a private entity, it reportedly includes Russian army veterans among its ranks. While the direct participation of the Wagner Group has been evident in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the Kremlin had never formally acknowledged its connections with it. This has posed challenges in calling for accountability and assessing whether the group qualifies as a mercenary organisation. However, following the military corporation’s aborted attempt at a coup last year, President Putin acknowledged that it had received tens of billions of roubles in public money from the government.

“Signatories to the Montreux Doctrine have committed to stronger state oversight of private military and security actors. States are obliged to check whether PMSCs comply with international humanitarian and human rights laws. However, neither India nor Russia is a signatory to this document. That does not preclude India from imposing tighter restrictions on the recruitment of Indian nationals for such enterprises. Furthermore, we need stronger international legal frameworks to safeguard individuals who are coerced or misled into contracting with PMSCs,” Dr. Prasad added.

The way forward

According to Dr. Prasad, the Indian government should develop a robust policy framework to address distress migration and implement strict measures against human trafficking. “India should adopt a two-pronged approach,” she suggested. “Long-term preventive measures should target the underlying economic factors that are driving people to leave the country, while immediate measures should prioritise educating the public and ensuring strong pre-travel vetting for Indians going to Russia or other conflict zones.”

For instance, she pointed out that pre-travel approval from the MEA for travel to Russia could be another measure to check if there are suspicious cases of human trafficking. This will also enable the identification of companies that are exploiting Indians, she added.

In 2012, neighbouring Bangladesh implemented the Dhaka Principles for Migration with Dignity which provides a roadmap for ethical overseas recruitment of migrants. The Nepal government in January banned its citizens from travelling to Russia or Ukraine for employment after 10 young men were killed and dozens more reported missing while fighting, predominately in the Russian military.

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Could a strong EU hard-right undermine Ukraine’s war effort?

With rising death rates and ongoing mobilisation struggles, Ukrainians fear a new set of EU politicians could slash support for their already difficult war.

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Despite relentless missile strikes, air raids, and increasingly frequent power cuts, Ukrainians remain fixated on the European elections.

At war for nearly two and a half years, Ukraine has depended on the rest of the continent for crucial support for weapons and humanitarian aid while Kyiv’s soldiers continue to toil in pushing back the Russian invasion’s advance into their country.

An unfavorable outcome in the 6-9 June elections could make matters worse and decide whether they will have the basic means to continue fighting back against Vladimir Putin’s troops.

For Ukrainians — and many others on the continent — it’s clear. If Ukraine falls, no one will truly be safe, and others could see themselves as targets.

“My message to all Europeans is to use your vote to defend democracy, use your voice for those who cannot”, Oleksandra Matviichuk, Chair of the Center for Civil Liberties, told Euronews.

Matviichuk’s NGO provides essential records of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by the Russian army in Ukraine, an essential testament to the veneer of civilisation being scraped off in the eastern European country. “This is the only way to stop anti-democratic political forces from gaining power.”

For figures like Matviichuk, crucial security issues like Ukraine are bipartisan issues, ones closely tied to universal democratic values which should not fall victim to ideological bickering.

“I hope that despite this, European parties will come together on the issue of supporting Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting for democracy and freedom, which is the benchmark of the European Union,” said Matviichuk, whose organisation was awarded the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize.

Democracy, Euromaidan and rumble of approaching tanks

Ukrainians have a visceral understanding of the importance of democracy, having suffered through a bloody crackdown against the pro-EU Euromaidan protests in Kyiv in 2013. 

Euromaidan’s success forced President Viktor Yanukovych to fold to people’s demands and flee to Russia at the time, but it came at a price: by 2014, the Kremlin aided and abetted the pro-Moscow separatists in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine and annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea.

Ukrainians’ desperate cries that Russia would not stop at the Donbas fell on deaf ears for eight years until tanks rolled across the border and into the country once again in 2022.

After repelling the initial full-scale onslaught and pushing back Moscow forces, it seemed like Kyiv could emerge victorious. At the time, the EU embraced Kyiv with open arms, countering Putin’s act of aggression with a slew of economic sanctions against Russia and a commitment to keep providing the weapons and ammo Ukraine sorely needed.

Ukraine was fast-tracked on its path to EU candidate status, and the long-standing dream of its people of being welcomed into the greater European family seemed to be within reach.

However, things got complicated. Kyiv launched a largely failed counter-offensive caused by a slow supply of ammunition and having to face multiple waves of Russian military conscripts in the east of the country. Other conflicts, like the Israel-Hamas war, drew away public attention.

Far right, the great naysayer?

As Russian forces entrench themselves, the country is besieged by relentless missile and drone assaults on civilian sites, inundating entire valleys and continuously dangling the possibility of nuclear strikes. It’s evident that the conflict won’t see a swift resolution soon.

In the rest of Europe, voices continue to emerge expressing scepticism towards the EU’s continued support for Ukraine.

With the rise of the far right — some of who have explicitly campaigned against arms shipments and opening the door to Ukrainian accession — many fear that the results of the June vote might see Kyiv’s fortunes turn for the worse.

On Friday, the European Commission told the member states that Ukraine fulfilled the criteria to kick off membership talks. Yet, the biggest challenge the country might face as the new European Parliament forms will be finding enough support for its path to full membership, CEO of Centre for European Policy Studies Karel Lainoo told Euronews.

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Although S&D and EPP — both staunch supporters of Ukraine — are expected to remain the two strongest groups in Parliament, “since the third or the fourth largest group may become or is expected to become the eurosceptics or even worse, the anti-Euro groups, it will only become more difficult,” Lainoo said.

“Even if this process was started by (European Commission President Ursula) von der Leyen very explicitly and also supported by (European Council President) Charles Michel, who said Ukraine should become a member by 2030, it is likely that this process will be slowed down.”

Europe understands the threat this time around

And it’s not just about the war. Member states, who also have to approve Ukraine’s accession, might choose to prioritise protecting their economies and defer to the sceptical among their citizens as a means of justifying the move.

“Politicians will say, ‘look, this means that Europeans are rather conservative or afraid of a country like Ukraine to join too rapidly, to benefit from full access to the single market, and eventually to distort the agricultural single market and other aspects of the market with much cheaper products. Hence, we have to protect our market, and we will slow it down,'” Lainoo explained.

But will this also translate into the EU hanging Kyiv out to dry, allowing the Kremlin to push forward once again? Lainoo doesn’t think so, especially because even among those on the extreme ends of the political spectrum, there is no unanimity over Ukraine’s war effort.

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More importantly, Europe is fully aware of the threat coming from Moscow this time.

“There is a cross-party realisation that this is existential for Europe. Rationally, yes; probably emotionally not so. But rationally, they will say that this is a danger for Europe,” Lainoo concluded.

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China and Russia reaffirm their close ties as Moscow presses its offensive in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on May 16 reaffirmed their “no-limits” partnership that has deepened as both countries face rising tensions with the West, and they criticized U.S. military alliances in Asia and the Pacific region.

At their summit in Beijing, Mr. Putin thanked Mr. Xi for China’s proposals for ending the war in Ukraine, which have been rejected by Ukraine and its Western supporters as largely following the Kremlin’s line.

Mr. Putin’s two-day state visit to one of his strongest allies and trading partners comes as Russian forces are pressing an offensive in northeastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv region in the most significant border incursion since the full-scale invasion began on February 24, 2022.

China claims to take a neutral position in the conflict, but it has backed the Kremlin’s contentions that Russia was provoked into attacking Ukraine by the West, and it continues to supply key components needed by Moscow for weapons production.

China, which hasn’t criticised the invasion, proposed a broadly worded peace plan in 2023, calling for a cease-fire and for direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv. The plan was rejected by both Ukraine and the West for failing to call for Russia to leave occupied parts of Ukraine.

China also gave a rhetorical nod to Russia’s narrative about Nazism in Ukraine, with a joint statement Thursday that said Moscow and Beijing should defend the post-World War II order and “severely condemn the glorification of or even attempts to revive Nazism and militarism”. Mr. Putin has cited the “denazification” of Ukraine as a main goal of the military action, falsely describing the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is Jewish and lost relatives in the Holocaust, as neo-Nazis.

The largely symbolic and ceremonial visit stressed partnership between two countries who both face challenges in their relationship with the U.S. and Europe.

“Both sides want to show that despite what is happening globally, despite the pressure that both sides are facing from the U.S., both sides are not about to turn their backs on each other anytime soon,” said Hoo Tiang Boon, who researches Chinese foreign policy at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.

While Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi said they were seeking an end to the war, they offered no new proposals in their public remarks.

“China hopes for the early return of Europe to peace and stability and will continue to play a constructive role toward this,” Mr. Xi said in prepared remarks to media in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. His words echoed what China said when it offered a broad plan for peace.

Earlier, Mr. Putin was welcomed in Tiananmen Square with military pomp. After a day in Beijing, the Russian leader arrived in Harbin, where he was expected to attend a number of events on May 17.

On the eve of his visit, Mr. Putin said China’s proposal could “lay the groundwork for a political and diplomatic process that would take into account Russia’s security concerns and contribute to achieving a long-term and sustainable peace”. Mr. Zelenskyy has said any negotiations must include a restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops, the release of all prisoners, a tribunal for those responsible for the aggression and security guarantees for Ukraine.

After Russia’s latest offensive in Ukraine last week, the war is in a critical stage as Ukraine’s depleted military waits for new supplies of anti-aircraft missiles and artillery shells from the United States after months of delay.

The joint statement from China and Russia also criticised U.S. foreign policy at length, hitting out at U.S.-formed alliances, which the statement called having a “Cold War mentality.” China and Russia also accused the U.S. of deploying land-based intermediate range missile systems in the Asia-Pacific under the pretext of joint exercises with allies. They said that the U.S. actions in Asia were “changing the balance of power” and “endangering the security of all countries in the region.” The joint statement demonstrated China’s support to Russia.

China is “falling over themselves to give Russia face and respect without saying anything specific, and without committing themselves to anything”, said Susan Thornton, a former diplomat and a senior fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School.

The meeting was yet another affirmation of the friendly “no-limits” relationship China and Russia signed in 2022, just before Moscow invaded Ukraine.

Since then, Russia has become increasingly dependent economically on China as Western sanctions cut its access to much of the international trading system. China’s increased trade with Russia, totalling $240 billion last year, has helped the country mitigate some of the worst blowback from sanctions.

Moscow has diverted the bulk of its energy exports to China and relied on Chinese companies for importing high-tech components for Russian military industries to circumvent Western sanctions.

“I and President Putin agree we should actively look for convergence points of the interests of both countries, to develop each’s advantages, and deepen integration of interests, realizing each others’ achievements,” Mr. Xi said.

U.S. State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel said that China can’t “have its cake and eat it too”.

“You cannot want to have deepened relations with Europe … while simultaneously continuing to fuel the biggest threat to European security in a long time,” Mr. Patel said.

Mr. Xi congratulated Mr. Putin on starting his fifth term in office and celebrated the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the former Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China, which was established following a civil war in 1949. Mr. Putin has eliminated all major political opponents and faced no real challenge in the March election.

“In a famous song of that time, 75 years ago — it is still performed today — there is a phrase that has become a catchphrase: Russians and Chinese are brothers forever,’” Mr. Putin said.

Russia-China military ties have strengthened during the war. They have held a series of joint war games in recent years.

China remains a major market for Russian military, while also massively expanding its domestic defensive industries, including building aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines.

Mr. Putin has previously said that Russia has been sharing highly sensitive military technologies with China that helped significantly bolster its defence capability.

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A perfume shop owner and military supplier on the war in Ukraine

Dima runs a perfume shop in Odesa that has now doubled up as a place where volunteers can restock supplies. He told Euronews about how it is to be in close contact with those fighting on the frontline whilst trying to keep hope.

A hidden gem in Odesa

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Walking down the gorgeous pastel lined shops of Odesa, you could be forgiven for almost forgetting you’re in a war zone. Restaurants and bars throng with those defiant enough to try to forget the war. No one is wearing ballistic vests. But then you turn a corner and suddenly there it is again. Piles of sandbags stacked next to the Opera House. Or anti-tank traps lurking menacingly in the background.

Many of the city’s residents declare that Odesa is the pearl of Ukraine and that Russia wants to have it. It is a gorgeous city. A bit like Paris, but on the sea. And like Paris, Odesa also has lovely little boutiques lining the streets. But one is no ordinary boutique.

Dima has been a collector of perfumes for around 30 years. In the downstairs basement of a shop, more soldiers than customers come and go. This shop is special, because not only can you buy a limited-edition Chanel perfume from the 60s, but military volunteers can also go there to replenish supplies and pick up aid for the eastern border.

It’s a curious sight in this shop. Soldiers being fitted out for ballistic vests and helmets, in between 20-something girls perusing the shelves, spritzing samples on their wrists, both searching for something to calm them during these terrible times.

But Dima doesn’t just sell perfumes and supply volunteers with military equipment, he also builds sculptures out of smashed perfume bottles and the remnants of bombs and shrapnel that kill his people. Back in 2022, he acquired part of a bomb that killed several civilians in Mykolaiv over Easter and will use this for a sculpture. One of his perfumes is sitting in none other than former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnsons’ home in London.

“There were actual fragments from the rocket, small pieces. And I incorporated them into the composition, which, as it turned out, reached Boris Johnson. So, my perfume is there at Boris Johnson’s house, it’s cool,” Dima says over a Zoom interview. He arches his pointy eyebrows and pauses for a second.

“Both the perfume and the scent that went into it are quite unpleasant in their nature. It’s a leather, woody kind of scent, not from the category of everyday wear, so to speak,” he adds.

When I first met Dima during the first few months of Russia’s full-scale invasion, there was a worldwide shortage of ballistic vests. Colleagues of mine who work for several of the best news agencies in the world scrambled to try to buy them so they could report from inside Ukraine. One had a friend of his buy one of the last vests in Madrid and fly to Poland to drive to the border to deliver it, so scarce was the supply in Europe. Military supply shops across Europe, including Berlin, Prague and Warsaw had sold out long before. It was impossible to get a vest remotely close to Ukraine.

“We made these body armours without plates initially. Then we made the plates ourselves, and we produced them from field work tools because there were no body armours available. The demand was very high,” Dima says, although he no longer produces the plates since the EU has stepped up deliveries into Ukraine. He also tells us the vests have saved three lives.

“People sent me photos of their bulletproof vests that took hits, and no one got killed.”

Whilst Dima physically isn’t on the front lines himself, he funds the production of soft stretchers and blankets, bags, drones, ammunition. The stretchers, Dima says, can hold up to 250kg, which is essential for the volunteers on the frontlines themselves.

“[Ukrainian] Stormtroopers are unlikely to take me because I have leg problems, but I can perform some functions in the rear, for example, or there, on the second line of defence. Maybe I’d introduce drones, I don’t know,” Dima says, when we ask what he would do if called to fight.

Many of the volunteers who pass through the glass doors of the Odesa perfumery were forced down alternative career paths when the war broke out, including Dima’s son, who now sews fabric used for body armour.

“He was initially far from any kind of production, especially ammunition, let alone sewing. He worked as a carpenter, specifically in the workshop that made sculptures, and that was his main occupation.”

Perfume collector to volunteer

Dima’s shop also helps facilitate evacuations of civilians from cities including Kharkiv and helps other volunteers deliver aid to the countryside surrounding Odesa. Some of the people living there are entirely reliant on Telegram groups, which other volunteer groups use to coordinate deliveries, for essential items including nappies and canned foods. These places are surrounded by trenches and military checkpoints and have no public transport.

I accompanied a couple of these missions back in 2022. Each time, we drove out of the city for two hours with limited fuel, the sun beating down on fields of sunflowers on a backdrop of blue sky as far as the eye could see, surely the inspiration for the Ukrainian flag. Many of the people who were living in these remote villages were internal refugees, who had fled to the west for safety. Many were single mothers with several children, and both their men and cars were fighting on the frontlines in the east of the country. Without a car, there is no access to supermarkets for them. The volunteers who tirelessly deliver the aid do this alongside other jobs. Dima supplies these volunteers out of his own pocket with ballistic vests and helmets just in case of Russian strikes. One volunteer group already lost a driver and a bus to a fighter jet.

How is the mood amongst the military volunteers, who tirelessly defend the borders in the east of the country and carry out these aid deliveries? It’s mixed, Dima says, “because if we stop, we’ll essentially lose not just the word ‘Ukraine’ or our homes; we’ll have to flee somewhere, primarily as volunteers, because we will be the first to face torture, abuse, and death.”

Dima says that things have changed since the start of the war. “In the early days, people were so affected by it, not to say they went insane, but, let’s say, the war absolutely boosted the spirit of the Ukrainian people by 100%.”

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It brought people together, with everyone pitching in during those first few months. He says in every Odesa neighbourhood, there were people on the streets making Molotov cocktails, ready to defend their city against invaders.

“But those first hours, those initial moments were, of course, terrifying because the feeling that, here it is, war has come. It is the thing that I feared the most in my life. War is the worst thing that can happen, like some deadly disease. And war, unlike other challenges in life, can’t be overcome with money or other friends,” he adds melancholically. Dima’s eyes close when he begins to talk about the first moments of the war. His eyes open when he comes back to the present, as if he’s peering directly at reality.

Dima describes the first missile strike that hit Odesa as “a horror that lives in my heart until now. It now occupies a part of my life. It’s like the first love, you know, impossible to forget. And this is approximately the same, only it’s not a positive emotion, but an extremely negative one. The horror survived. No, it has grown. A part of my heart.”

Family torn apart

The missile strikes, asides from being physically terrifying have also had a more emotional effect on those in Odesa. Dima’s family has been completely ripped apart because of it. He is no longer on speaking terms with relatives who live in Russia.

“Many of us haven’t spoken since February 20th (2022). I tried to tell them about how terrible it is and urged them to protest. They say, ‘Why should we protest? We have everything we need, everything is fine.’ And they blame you for the fact that [the Russian army] came to you.” It’s horrifying just to hear.

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“We stopped communicating a week after the full-scale invasion,” he adds. “Our relationship, to put it mildly, is strained. At least with my cousin, she probably doesn’t distinguish between the words ‘Nazi’ and ‘patriot.’ But the difference between a patriot and a Nazi is very significant. A patriot loves their homeland, while a Nazi is someone who believes that their nation is significantly better than others, much better than everyone else.

Dima blames Russian TV propaganda for this.

“We are, for them, monkeys with a hand grenade. We are anything but humans. That’s it. Hence the hatred and a large number of crimes against humanity, where people, not only are they simply killed, but it has become a habit to bombard us with a thousand rockets.”

He has asked himself many times over the past three years why civilians are being targeted for what Russia calls its “special military operation.”

A difficult relationship with the Russian language

“Russia’s actions have led to the fact that now we all want to speak only in Ukrainian, and we do. For example, I communicate with people on Facebook exclusively in Ukrainian.” He says he started learning Ukrainian because of the invasion after the 2014 annexation of Crimea.

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Dima’s relationship with Russia is complicated. He was born in Odesa, but like Ukrainian leader Zelenskyy, he is a native Russian speaker. He says many of the soldiers on the front lines speak Russian.

Dima believes Putin is seeking to annex Ukraine to the Russian Federation.

“As far as I understand, the ‘Russian world’ implies the absence of recognition of nationality, including national languages, cultures, and so on. They are levelled in favour of Russian culture, primarily. There are numerous national conflicts happening within Russia itself, but they are kept under control where authorities prevent the expression of opinions about them.”

Dima mentions Tatarstan, “where individuals advocating for their native language, culture, and environmental preservation have faced legal consequences.” He is talking about Fail Alsynov, the ex-leader of a banned Bashqort group, who promoted the Bashkir language and culture. Alsynov was sentenced to four years in prison, and claims the charges were politically motivated.

Dima sees similarities with Ukrainian culture.

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“For us, anyone who seeks to take over our state is an enemy, plain and simple. I don’t want to receive any lessons from people who, at some point, were close to me but now are considered enemies. Those who take up arms against me, even metaphorically speaking, including relatives who have remained in significant numbers, are enemies,” he says.

Dima says he doesn’t understand the desire to belong to Russia.

“The motivation behind someone desiring the Russian world is unclear to me. People can at least look at what happened to Donetsk and Luhansk under Russia.” He has heard from volunteers that return from the east that much of the male population in Donetsk is depleted because they are either dead or shipped off to war.

“It’s some kind of archaic thinking, probably associated with phantom pains regarding the loss of the Soviet Union. There was the Soviet Union, and supposedly everyone lived happily, peacefully, and joyfully there, but if you delve into history and turn to various sources, for many, including my parents, everything was far from cloudless and far from joyful.” Dima remembers his father, who managed 12 farms. Although that sounds like it would generate a decent income, the reality was very far from that. Dima recounts celebrating the occasion of buying sneakers, because it was out of the ordinary for the family. He only had a single pair.

A sanctioned Russia is like North Korea

Dima says that in Russian territories “there is no development at all. Everything is under sanctions. Essentially, people who strive for the Russian world understand that Russia is under sanctions as well. In essence, they are striving for a country that is also under sanctions. Well, I don’t know how to compare it. It’s unlikely that anyone is trying to get to North Korea now. Well, its approximately like that.” It paints a bleak picture.

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“The point is that a person who expects that moving to Russia will bring them happiness is deeply mistaken because it doesn’t matter where you live. If you are unhappy in Ukraine, you will be unhappy in Russia, Europe, or anywhere else. It doesn’t matter. Somehow, people think that someone is interested in their personal fate and that Russia, in particular, will help them. In a thousand stories, people living in the Russian world, literally waiting for it, received it, and ultimately suffered from it,” he laments.

He doesn’t know what the solution is. “Here, you are essentially facing death, which will come if you surrender, or you have to run somewhere where it’s unclear whether they welcome you or not. And as practice shows, many seem to have just grown tired of us, Ukrainians.”

The choice is impossible for many Ukrainians. Either they stay and wait for bombs to destroy their homes, dropped by a country they considered themselves to be related to, like siblings, or they flee to another country, where they must learn a new language, and often begin their studies again from the ground up, because some governments don’t recognise Ukrainian qualifications.

“Simply because if it’s written in his passport that he’s Ukrainian, the Russians will simply destroy him just because he is Ukrainian. That is fascism,” he says.

We ask him what he fears the most and he describes waking in the middle of the night, jolted awake by the sounds of civilian homes being targeted by bombs.

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“The centre of the city of Odesa is definitely not a military object. How can they send [bombs] here, to the city centre that is protected by UNESCO?”

The day times are often punctuated by the wails of the air-raid sirens. If you’ve not experienced it yourself, it sounds exactly like it does in films or second world war museum exhibitions. Your skin prickles with goosebumps, but the eeriest thing about it is not the crying sound, but the fact that many people don’t even react. They have grown so used to it in Odesa that they don’t scuttle away. Sometimes during the night, between the sirens you can hear pops and small explosions. You hope it’s the sound of air defence keeping the city and its residence safe.

“These rockets hit our energy infrastructure or even some other critical targets. Let them be military objects, but there are people there too. Okay, it’s war; roughly speaking, it’s supposed to happen. There should be a goal to destroy, for example, some military object—that’s a norm, so to speak. But when the energy infrastructure is destroyed, and when the city is left without water, without heat, without anything…”

For months each year when there are massive power outages, many civilians flock to the shop, where Dima has installed generators. Residents cluster together, their faces illuminated by smart phones charging at hubs of power sockets.

“People just came to have some connection with the world.” Dima also installed a Starlink at his own cost.

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We ask Dima what he will do when the war ends, but like many of those who live in Ukraine or have close ties to the country, he struggles to answer and he looks vulnerable, as if he might start to cry.

“It’s like asking, ‘is there life on Mars?’ Right now, it sounds something like that. I’ll cry, I promise,” he says, making a joke, perhaps to stop the tears in their tracks.

Dima says he thinks Russia won’t stop with Ukraine: “What is victory? To stop at the border? Is it the left bank of Ukraine? Or go further into Poland or further into Germany? Why not? If they go through Ukraine, do you think they won’t go to Europe? Yes, they will definitely go. They will start saying, ‘We’ve been to Berlin, why not visit there again one more time,’” he says.

He mentions the news channels in Russia who often broadcast blasé nuclear threats, including to Europe. Dima says the topic is discussed at least every two weeks.

The future

But Dima is hopeful about the future. Although he alludes to the corruption that has marred Ukraine’s history, he says joining the EU is not the only solution. “We should not rely only on some subsequent assistance from Europe, simply because we are intelligent and capable enough people to lift our country ourselves,” he says, but he does think Ukraine needs to be reformed in some respects.

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“Many are ready to work and live honestly, believe me. A lot of people, at least those I’m currently communicating with say that we are ready. Just give us transparent laws, make it work, not just declaratively living in a legal state. But sometimes there are such options. I’m even taking a risk talking about it right now because tomorrow, something might happen.”

On the subject of the Ukrainian government, he says he respects President Zelenskyy as a leader: “he did not take advantage of all the opportunities to leave the country, hide somewhere in a safe place; he stayed right in Kyiv. He remained in the place where he directly performs his duties, and he didn’t abandon the people. He did everything to protect his people.” I’m sure it’s a thought that has crossed the mind of most people following the invasion, where you wonder if your own president would stand up against a world superpower in case of invasion.

Dima also applauds the work of the army, which he says many didn’t believe in, but has now proved itself over the past two years. He is also proud of himself, as he says he saved 28 people and has spent $3 million [Euronews was unable to independently verify this] during the course of the war. I saw him donate vests, helmets and supplies to volunteers during the time I spent in the shop.

And in his spare time, Dima is an avid photographer, taking photos of Odesa’s beauty. From striking red sunsets to micro photography of surrounding nature to creative shots of the sea and portraits of people. For him, it’s an outlet, a way to boost both his and the subjects’ morale.

“We help with medicine and all kinds of evacuation means. It’s all sad; it all gets heavy. People say your photos are just a bit of a break from this reality for us,” he says.

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“Every day, every hour, if there’s an opportunity, we do something, but again, something to make people smile, something to make people, well, at least, feel not in a war,” he adds melancholily. Even taking photos, is another way for Dima to care for others.

From the photos to the sculptures pieced together from smashed perfume bottles and left over bombs and shrapnel, Dima is all about trying to create something gorgeous, something pleasant, even against the backdrop of the horror of his country being invaded. A true artist.

He shares an anecdote that I still think of today: “In the first days of the war, when the Russians came to Melitopol, a woman came out and approached a soldier to talk to him. There was an armoured personnel carrier (BTR) there. She approached the soldier and said, ‘put some sunflower seeds in your pocket. When you die sunflowers will sprout and we’ll extract oil from you.’”

Afterwards, many Ukrainians started wearing t-shirts with the sunflower seeds motto printed on it.

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The Hindu Morning Digest – May 8, 2024

Police and paramilitary personnel stand guard at the polling station during the third phase of Lok Sabha Polls, in Etah on May 7, 2024.
| Photo Credit: ANI

Three Independent MLAs withdraw support to BJP government in Haryana

Three Independent MLAs supporting the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) government in Haryana on May 7 announced the withdrawal of their support to the government, even as the Congress party demanded the holding of Assembly election under the President’s rule in the State, as the government has been reduced to a “minority”.

Karnataka BJP post on Muslim quota | Election Commission tells X to immediately take down post

The Election Commission of India (ECI) ordered X, formerly Twitter, to take down an animated video posted by BJP Karnataka. The video features caricatures of Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, advancing the party’s recent messaging that the Congress is diverting funds and resources away from SC/ST/OBC Hindus towards Muslims. As of May 7 evening, the post had garnered over 90 lakh views, and had not yet been taken down. 

CBI arrests four for pushing Indians into Russia-Ukraine war

The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) has so far arrested four accused in a case related to trafficking of Indian nationals for combat role in the Russian Army. Arun and Yesudas Junior, both residents of Kerala’s Thiruvananthapuram, were held on Tuesday in the case registered on March 6. The other two accused, Nijil Jobi Bensam from Kanyakumari and Anthony Michael Elangovan from Mumbai, were earlier arrested on April 24 and are in judicial custody.

Reject proponents of lies, hatred for a brighter future, Sonia Gandhi urges voters

Sonia Gandhi on Tuesday alleged that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s niti (policy) and niyat (intentions)have led to unemployment, crimes against women and discrimination against Dalits, Adivasis and minorities.

SC to think about giving bail to Kejriwal for campaigning; ED calls it a luxury a ‘real aam aadmi’ cannot afford

The Supreme Court on May 7 decided to mull over the question of granting interim bail to Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal to enable him to campaign as an Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader for the ongoing Lok Sabha election.

Advertisers to submit self-declarations before promoting products in media, SC orders

The Supreme Court on Tuesday directed that advertisers should submit self-declarations that they are not misrepresenting or making false claims about products before promoting them in the media.

Gujarat sees 55% turnout; Modi, Shah cast their votes

Over 55% voting turnout was registered till 5 p.m. in the 25 parliamentary constituencies of Gujarat where polling was held in the third phase of the Lok Sabha election on Tuesday. There are 265 candidates in the fray, including three Cabinet ministers Amit Shah, Mansukh Mandaviya and Parshottam Rupala and a Minister of State Devusinh Chauhan.

Fact-check | Misleading posts cast doubt over the credibility of EVMs

Even as the third phase of polling for the Lok Sabha election draws to a close, some on social media have been casting aspersions on the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), the device used to electronically record and count votes cast in elections.

U.K. court rejects fifth bail plea of PNB scam accused Nirav Modi

The fifth bail application of diamantaire Nirav Modi, who is one of the prime accused in the ₹13,578-crore Punjab National Bank (PNB) scam, has been turned down by a United Kingdom court. In April 2021, the Secretary of State of U.K.’s Home Department had ordered his extradition to India, but it has not been implemented so far.

Interpol issues Blue Corner Notice against Prajwal Revanna 

Interpol issued on Tuesday (May 7) a Blue Corner Notice against “absconding” Hassan JD(S) MP Prajwal Revanna, accused of multiple instances of sexual abuse. This will help the Special Investigation Team probing the case to locate Prajwal Revanna. He flew to Germany from Bengaluru on April 27 using his diplomatic passport. His whereabouts are currently not known, amid reports that he later flew to Dubai or Hungary.

Foreign Secretary to visit Bangladesh, talks may feature China

China’s planned project along the Teesta in Bangladesh is expected to feature during Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra’s upcoming visit to Bangladesh, a prominent daily in Dhaka has reported.

Want 400 seats to prevent Congress from bringing back Article 370 and locking Ram Temple: PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 7 said he needed 400 seats in the Lok Sabha election to prevent the Congress from “bringing back Article 370 [in Kashmir] and putting a lock on Ayodhya Ram Temple”, drawing parallels to the Rajiv Gandhi government overturning the Supreme Court ruling in 1985 in the Shah Bano case, which he characterised as appeasement politics.

Polling ends in Karnataka; month-long, nail-biting wait begins

As the curtains came down on the hard-fought and high-pitched Lok Sabha elections amid the sweltering heat in Karnataka on Tuesday, it will be nearly a month-long tense wait for the electoral fortunes to be known. The counting of votes across the country will take place on June 4.

U.K. court rejects fifth bail plea of PNB scam accused Nirav Modi

The fifth bail application of diamantaire Nirav Modi, who is one of the prime accused in the ₹13,578-crore Punjab National Bank (PNB) scam, has been turned down by a United Kingdom court. In April 2021, the Secretary of State of U.K.’s Home Department had ordered his extradition to India, but it has not been implemented so far.

Supreme Court provides relief to nearly 24,000 Bengal teachers

The Supreme Court on May 7 gave relief to the West Bengal government by protecting nearly 24,000 teaching and non-teaching staff members from immediate termination from their jobs in schools across the State.

Militant commander Basit Dar, wanted in 18 cases, among two killed in Kulgam operation: J&K police

Two militants, including a ‘commander’ of The Resistance Front (TRF), were killed in a two-day anti-militancy operation in south Kashmir’s Kulgam on Tuesday. 

More than 63% polling in third phase, sporadic violence in West Bengal

At least 63.27% of the electorate in 93 constituencies cast their votes on May 7 in the third phase of the Lok Sabha election, which has now crossed the halfway mark, with voting complete in 282 out of 543 seats. Apart from sporadic incidents of violence in West Bengal, the voting was largely peaceful. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah were among the voters in this phase, with the latter also in the fray.

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Vladimir Putin | Reign of the patriarch

There was no surprise. When Russia’s election authorities announced results of the presidential election, Vladimir Putin, who has been in power for nearly a quarter century, was elected for another term. He won 87% of votes, extending his reign for six more years, while his closest rival, Nikolay Kharitonov of the Communist Party of Russian Federation, won 4.31% vote. There was no meaningful challenge to Mr. Putin in the election. Candidates who were critical of his policies, including the Ukraine war, were barred from contesting. State-controlled media hardly allowed any voices of dissent. And Mr. Putin’s approval rating has stayed high, according to Levada Centre, an independent Russian NGO, and he faces no visible or credible challenge to his authority among Russia’s elites.

If he completes his term, Mr. Putin, now 71, would surpass Joseph Stalin as the longest serving leader of modern Russia and the longest serving Russian leader since Catherine the Great, the 18th century Empress, who captured Crimea from the Ottomans and annexed it in 1783.


ALSO READ | It’s ‘Ra-Ra-Ras-Putin’ in the Russian election 

In many ways, Mr. Putin’s rise to power is intertwined with Russia’s own comeback from the forced retreat of the 1990s, which many Russians call the “decade of humiliation”. He has witnessed the peak years of the Cold War, the collapse of the state, which he called a “catastrophe” and the years of chaos. If in the late 1990s, he was seen as the man who could fix Russia’s problems, now he is the face of the state that’s at war in Ukraine “with the collective West” and has built a water-tight authoritarian system at home that allows no dissent.

Rise to power

Born in 1952 in Stalin’s Russia, Mr. Putin graduated in 1975 from Leningrad State University (now Saint Petersburg State University). He served 15 years as a foreign intelligence officer for the KGB (Committee for State Security), of which six years were in Dresden, East Germany. In 1990, a year before the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Mr. Putin retired with the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. In the new Russia, he started his political career in St. Petersburg, the former capital of the Tsars. In 1994, he became the first Deputy Mayor of the city. Two years later, Mr. Putin moved to Moscow where he joined the Kremlin as an administrator. He captured the world’s attention in 1998 when President Boris Yeltsin appointed him as director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor of the KGB. He never had to turn back.

Russia was in a bad shape. Its economy was in shambles. It was not in a position to challenge NATO, which had revived talks of expanding to Eastern Europe. In Chechnya, a separatist war was raging. Yeltsin, the vodka-drinking, aloof leader who was struggling to deal with the many challenges his big but weak country was facing, started looking at Mr. Putin, the young spymaster, as his successor. In 1999, he appointed Mr. Putin as Prime Minister. When Mr. Yeltsin stepped down, Mr. Putin became acting President. And in 2000, he began his first term after the presidential elections.

Great power rivalry

During the early years of Mr. Putin’s presidency, Russia’s ties with the West were relatively cordial. Russia was taken into the G7 industrialised economies in 1997. Mr. Putin supported the U.S.’s war on terror after the September 11 terrorist attack. In 2001, President George W. Bush said Mr. Putin was “very straightforward and trustworthy”. “We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country,” Mr. Bush said. But the larger factors of great power rivalry would soon take over the post-Soviet tendencies of bonhomie. When the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, Russia took a strong position against it. This was also a period when Russia, under Mr. Putin’s leadership, was rebuilding its economy and military might. A year after the Iraq invasion, NATO expanded further to the east, this time taking the three Baltic countries — Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, all sharing borders with Russia — and four others in Eastern Europe into its fold.

Watch | Two years of Russia-Ukraine war: How Russia and the world are changing

Mr. Putin’s later remarks would show how he looked at the U.S.-led global order. In a February 2007 speech given at the Munich Security Conference (a speech which is still seen by many as Mr. Putin’s foreign policy blueprint), the Russian leader slammed what he called the U.S.’s “monopolistic dominance” over the global order. “One single centre of power. One single centre of force. One single centre of decision making. This is the world of one master, one sovereign…. Primarily the United States has overstepped its national borders, and in every area,” he said.

Having silently accepted NATO’s expansion in the past, a more confident and militaristic Russia appeared to have drawn a red line on Georgia and Ukraine, both Black Sea basin countries that share borders with Russia. In 2008, the year Georgia and Ukraine were offered membership by NATO at its Bucharest summit, Mr. Putin sent troops to Georgia in the name of defending the two breakaway republics — South Ossetia and Abkhazia — which practically ended Tbilisi’s NATO dream. In 2014, immediately after the elected Ukrainian government of President Viktor Yanukovych was toppled by West-backed protests, Russia annexed Crimea, the peninsula that hosts Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Mr. Putin also offered military and financial aid to separatists in the Russian-speaking territories of Eastern Ukraine, which rose against the post-Yanukovych regime in Kyiv.

The conflict that began in 2014 snowballed into a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine on February 24, 2022, when Mr. Putin ordered his “special military operation”. The war placed Russia on course with prolonged conflict with the West. But Mr. Putin looked at it differently. “He has three advisers,” Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told an oligarch after the war began, according to an FT report. “Ivan the Terrible. Peter the Great. And Catherine the Great.”

Tight grip

Domestically, Mr. Putin has tightened his control on the Russian state over the years. He stepped down as President in 2008 as he was constitutionally barred from a third consecutive term but became Prime Minister under President Dmitry Medvedev. Four years later, Mr. Putin returned as President. This time, he got the Constitution amended that allowed him to stand in Presidential elections again. Alexei Navalny, his most vocal opposition leader who survived an assassination attempt in August 2020, died in a prison in February. Boris Nemtsov, another opposition politician, was shot dead in Moscow in February 2015. The Kremlin-tolerated opposition parties, including the Communist Party, do not pose any organisational or ideological challenge to Mr. Putin’s hold on power.


EDITORIAL | Death of dissent: On Putin’s Russia today

In the state he rebuilt, Orthodox Christianity holds a prominent place. He is fighting not just a military conflict with the West, but also a culture war between “civilisations”. He is the new patriarch of “mother Russia”, not just the President of a modern republic. This mix of populism, civilisational nationalism, cultural roots and militarism kept him popular in Russia. According to Levada Centre, Mr. Putin’s approval rating stayed at 86% in February 2024, while 12% disapproved of his performance. Levada’s polls show that Mr. Putin’s popularity has never dipped below 59% since he became President. He has mastered a complex model, with regular elections, that allowed him to retain total dominance on Russian politics, while keeping dissent and political opposition under check, something which British historian Perry Anderson calls ‘a managed democracy’. At the same time, he constantly pushed to expand Russian influence abroad, challenging the West.

This model of dominance at home and counterbalance abroad faces a tough test when Mr. Putin is assuming another term. The Ukraine war is grinding on in its third year with no end in sight. Russia, which suffered some setbacks in the early stage of the war, seems to have captured battlefield momentum, for now. But the country is also paying a big price. It lost tens of thousands of soldiers. It is struggling to offset the impact of the sanctions the West has imposed. Its ties with Europe, which Mr. Putin rebuilt painstakingly in his early years of power, lies in tatters, forcing the country to pivot to Asia. NATO further expanded towards Russia’s border after the war began, with Sweden and Finland being the latest members.

At home, there are signs that his regime is ageing, which were evident in the rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of private military company Wagner, or silent protests in Russia, including on the election day. But Mr. Putin seems confident and unfazed. In his victory speech on Sunday, Mr. Putin declared that he will stay the course. “We have many tasks ahead. But when we are consolidated — no matter who wants to intimidate us, suppress us — nobody has ever succeeded in history, they have not succeeded now, and they will not succeed ever in the future,” said the Russian leader to cheering supporters, who chanted “Putin, Putin… Russia, Russia”.

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