Tag: euroviews

Will going digital really simplify applying for a Schengen visa?

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The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

Digitalisation, although well-intentioned, may well lead to more complexity for the applicant and more of a workload for consular staff, Michel Dejaegher writes.

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The European Parliament is developing plans to reform visa application procedures in the Schengen area by moving from a system where travellers are required to apply in person to get physical visa stickers to a digital system instead.

The idea is that no longer will travellers apply for individual visas; instead, they’ll apply for an EU visa through one EU visa platform, which will allow them to download an e-visa directly to their smartphone.

All applicants will be required to do is to upload electronic copies of their travel documents along with other supporting materials, followed by the payment of the visa fees.

This has the potential to streamline the visa application process immensely for travellers and it is to European governments’ credit that they have reached an agreement on this in principle.

And, in theory, it sounds like a seamless visa application process. But in practice, I can foresee a number of difficulties.

Different countries, different rules

When you have one country on its own introducing a digitalisation process, you apply one set of rules and regulations and there is a single national authority harmonising and checking the practice of consulates. 

It is not an easy task, but it does not reach the level of complexity encountered when such a digitalisation process must be implemented across nearly 30 different countries.

In theory, the Schengen visa system is based on identical rules and regulations. It is mainly true, and it is quite an achievement, as national policies can be very different. However, there are still many exceptions, which a digitalisation platform will have to integrate.

First, the platform will have to inform applicants whether they need a visa or not. Most visa waivers are common. 

However, there are national exceptions such as employment (some Schengen member states do not apply the visa waiver if the third-country national is due to take employment), for airline and ship crews, holders of diplomatic or service passports and school children.

Second, a harmonised list of supporting documents needs to be displayed. To date, common consular lists have been established, but when you examine them, you realise that these lists are generic and rather vague — whereas if those supporting documents must be uploaded by applicants, they have to be very precise and limited.

Varying requirements might lead to confusion

Supporting documents are not always the same, either. For example, French consulates require a formal and secured invitation by a family member or a friend whereas other member states accept different types of invitations. 

It’s the same for the financial resources: the daily minimum amount is not the same for every Schengen member state. 

And as a traveller may visit several countries during his short stay, the platform will have to check not only which Schengen country is competent to examine the visa application (considering the rather vague concept of “main destination” where there is room for appreciation), but also record the number of days spent in each country so that the amount of financial resources may be calculated.

A related issue is because the platform intends to require the applicant to pay the Schengen visa fees online, national exceptions to the common fees will have to be integrated.

In short, the online application process will mean lots of questions being asked of the applicant which makes it very confusing for them.

Some countries already ask (or intend to ask) external service providers — such as outsourcers — to scan all pages of the travel documents of visa applicants in three different colours as a security precaution. 

The EU regulation, as it is now, provides for only a copy of just the identity page in one colour. However, I don’t believe Schengen governments will want to reduce this level of security.

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The road to Schengen is paved with good intentions

My sense is that digitalisation, although well-intentioned, may well lead to more complexity for the applicant, meaning consulates could be inundated with queries, which will create more of a workload for consular staff.

So, either Schengen governments could allow unregulated commercial intermediaries to assist applicants at a high price without any control — or, as I foresee, continue to regulate external service providers to provide controlled visa processing and support services, reducing the burden on the applicant and the consulate.

Indeed, many countries already use outsourcing services for providing logistic non-judgmental assistance to issuing visas, passports, and consular services. 

The introduction of external service providers was aimed at solving the problem of the time pressures on consulates and embassies from a growing number of applicants and the need to record their biometric data, together with increasing security measures in consulates. 

The time-consuming task of receiving applicants, accepting, and managing visa applications, checking applicants’ documentation is correct and collecting their biometric data is transferred to external service providers. 

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This has allowed consular services to focus on the essential task — granting or refusing the application — rather than getting bogged down in the administration or queries in processing the application.

In the era of smartphones and technological progress, digitalisation can certainly be an advance. But it will almost certainly require external service providers to make the process work smoothly.

Michel Dejaegher is a former head of the French Central Visa Department and former French consul general in Algeria, Canada and Japan. He represented France in the Schengen visa working group and is a co-writer of the European Union Visa Code.

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How many more years will Afghan girls lose to Taliban oppression?

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The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

Afghanistan has dropped off the news agenda, but the violence and oppression continue — and for too many of us Afghan women, no matter how loud we shout, it feels like the world has stopped listening, Meetra Qutb writes.

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Earlier in March, Afghan teenage girls should have been going back to school, marking the beginning of a new academic year. 

In most other countries, girls of 11 or 12 years of age would be preparing to begin their secondary education.

In Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, female education ends at grade six.

I know full well how it feels to live in fear and uncertainty. My first encounter with the Taliban was back in 1996 when I saw two women whipped on their feet for not covering their faces.

I was five years old and had become one of the millions of girls deprived of their education during the first Taliban regime from 1996 to 2001.

I was one of the “lucky” ones, however — I was home-schooled and attended a secret school for girls in Kabul. 

But the fear of getting caught followed us everywhere, especially as we travelled to and from our classes. My classmates and I would hide our schoolbooks in cloths used to cover the Qur’an.

Two years ago, I watched in horror in March 2022 as the Taliban U-turned on their promise to reopen girls’ secondary schools — a ban that is estimated to affect over 1 million girls. I saw girls break down in tears in front of news cameras. 

It was a pain that felt personal to me.

A vortex women are stuck in

Since the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021, girls have been banned from secondary school for over 900 days — a shocking figure when we consider the effects of school closures on children globally during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Just think of how Afghan girls have been impacted — not only have they lost the opportunity to progress academically, but they’re missing vital opportunities to socialise, develop friendships, and grow as individuals during the formative years of their lives.

Health experts have expressed concerns over the impacts on girls’ mental health, with surging cases of depression and anxiety, and near-daily reports of female suicides.

Here at Afghan Witness, a project run by the Centre for Information Resilience, we’ve been speaking to women and girls since the Taliban’s takeover. Their sobering accounts reveal how it feels to be deprived of the most basic of human rights.

Sofia*, a university student, described the current situation as a vortex: “the women and girls of Afghanistan are stuck in it. No one can even shake their foot from it. All their dreams and goals are outside”, she said.

Gawhar*, a high school student before the ban, told us: “I wanted to become a journalist in a local media agency. A fellow female classmate wanted to become a doctor — unfortunately, all of us became hopeless.”

Edicts as a means of oppression

Since their takeover, the Taliban have issued 80 edicts in total — 54 of which specifically target women and girls, according to the Feminist Majority Foundation. Among them are requirements for women to be accompanied by a male guardian when travelling over 72 kilometres and to cover their faces in public.

These edicts have strengthened male family members’ control over women’s behaviour and clothing and could potentially pave the way for more inter-familial violence, thanks to a culture of impunity that thrives under the group’s rule.

There are also very real economic consequences to restrictions on women’s work and education. The talent and opportunity lost will impact not only individuals but Afghanistan as a country. 

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There’s already been an exodus of professionals, and, with half of the population deprived of higher education, sectors such as health, justice and education are destined to suffer.

But make no mistake: the women who have studied and become lawyers, journalists, teachers or doctors over the last twenty years refuse to give up their livelihoods so easily.

Some have taken to the streets in protest, and when their protests were met with suppression and violence, they took their campaigns online. They have shared videos of indoor demonstrations, coined hashtags, campaigned for the release of those in detention, and used theatre, music and dance to tell stories of Taliban brutality.

Do not underestimate Afghan women — but do protect them

The ability of Afghan women to adapt should not be understated. 

Many have poured their time into advocacy, while others have set up secret schools or online classes. Those who managed to leave Afghanistan have worked tirelessly to tell the stories of those who remain, establishing women-led newsrooms that operate in exile to ensure Afghanistan is not forgotten.

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And while the resilience, strength and creativity of these women offer a glimmer of hope in the darkness — the reality is that being a woman in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan means living in fear and uncertainty.

In January, reports emerged that a number of girls and women had been arrested for non-compliance with the Taliban’s hijab rules. 

Suicide cases among women in Afghanistan appear to rise year on year and are possibly linked to domestic violence, forced marriage, and the group’s restrictions. Reports of femicide are also frequently recorded by our investigators at Afghan Witness, with family members, Taliban, and unknown individuals often cited as perpetrators.

Afghanistan has dropped off the news agenda, but the violence and oppression continues — and for too many of us Afghan women, no matter how loud we shout, it feels like the world has stopped listening.

Meetra Qutb is the Relationship Manager and Communications Specialist at the Centre for Information Resilience’s Afghan Witness project. She previously worked as an associate lecturer at Kabul University’s law and political science faculty and is an independent researcher and commentator on human rights and politics in Afghanistan.

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*Names have been changed by Afghan Witness to protect the women who chose to speak out from repercussions by the Taliban.

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This Ramadan, Muslim world can end gender apartheid in Afghanistan

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The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

The Taliban’s authority hinges on their purported adherence to Islamic law. However, that is based on a fundamentally flawed, selective and extreme interpretation of Islamic texts, meaning their policies are against their own stated principles, Dr Mohammad bin Abdulkarim Al Issa writes.

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Since the Taliban re-took power in Afghanistan in 2021, “women (have been) banned from gyms, public spaces, schools, university, and from most jobs.” They have marginalized Afghan women, hurting Afghan society in the process.

But now, a groundbreaking gathering last week reveals another uncomfortable truth for an already embattled government: the Taliban had little hope of engaging with the non-Islamic world. But they’re also fast losing confidence in the Muslim world, too.

Last week, during our most sacred month of Ramadan, and in our most sacred city of Mecca, we at the Muslim World League convened hundreds of the world’s leading Muslim scholars from all sects and denominations.

This historic gathering was a return to a venerable Muslim practice called ijma’ (consensus), and over two days, leaders representing the rich diversity of Islam took a defiant stand against sectarianism and condemned all practices that fail to represent true Islam.

This includes the Taliban’s ongoing mistreatment of women.

The Taliban’s estrangement keeps growing

The Taliban have long defended their gender restrictions like preventing women from accessing education, through Islam. 

However, hundreds of leading Islamic leaders forcefully rebutting such claims radically undermines their justifications, including the Taliban’s “inclusive Islamic Emirate”.

Our feelings towards the Taliban were clearly indicated in one of the articles of the Charter on Building Bridges Between the Islamic Schools of Thought and Sects, which underlined the importance of the family unit, access to education, and the protection of women’s rights.

In fact, all Islamic nations follow principles that the Taliban’s ideologies starkly deviate from. Contrary to the Taliban’s claims of facing opposition only from political figures, the reality is drastically different. 

The fact that senior Afghan scholars attended the conference in Mecca and opposed the Taliban’s stance highlights the group’s growing estrangement from mainstream Islamic teachings.

This is why the Taliban must realign with the broader principles of Islam to avoid further isolation as extremists within the Islamic community.

This acute gender apartheid is still apartheid. What they dismiss as malign Western constructs is actually deeply rooted in Islamic teachings, values, and history.

No one has the right to take away women’s right to learn

The Qur’an and hadith, the sayings and practices of the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, make this clear. In the Qur’an, God describes human beings as rational, and nowhere in the Islamic tradition is the capacity for reason gendered. 

The Qur’an not only describes women as the religious equals of men, but men and women as partners and protectors for one another. Not only that, but the Qur’an condemns discrimination against women once rampant in Arabia.

One of the reasons the Qur’an calls on “believing men and believing women” is to make clear that men and women have the same fundamental moral standing, the same essential moral rights, and the same basic moral responsibilities. 

In fact, there is a well-known hadith in which the blessed Prophet Muhammad describes “seeking knowledge” as an obligation “for every Muslim,” which has always been taken to mean Muslim men and Muslim women.

Most intriguingly, the expression in Arabic, “talab al-‘ilm,” or “seeking knowledge,” is the root of the word Taliban. The origins of the movement’s name belie their own claims. 

Learning is a responsibility we owe to God, which means it is a right no government can abrogate. 

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And it is an argument no Muslim can easily overlook, which is why we sought this ijma’, or consensus, in Mecca, following a long Muslim practice of seeking unanimity on core questions.

The Taliban can’t dismiss our call

Throughout Islamic history, in fact, whenever we have faced new threats or the recurrence of religious distortions, Muslim scholars have come together to reaffirm our core commitments, even across our sectarian differences.

In Mecca, we followed that tradition once more. And the Taliban are no doubt paying attention.

While the West issues critiques of the Taliban’s excesses in a language unfamiliar to them, the Taliban cannot so easily dismiss our call. 

The sheer number and diversity of Muslim scholars, from different parts of the world and different perspectives within Islam, undermines the Taliban’s claim to authority. 

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For these Muslim scholars are declaring their unanimous commitment to the place of women in religious life, including the right to education, work, worship, and movement.

The Taliban’s authority hinges on their purported adherence to Islamic law. But in this instance, their adherence is based on a fundamentally flawed, selective and extreme interpretation of Islamic texts, meaning their policies are against their own stated principles. 

The collective declaration by scholars in Mecca underscores a commitment to reclaiming the essence of Islamic teachings — promoting a vision of Islam that champions the rights and dignity of all individuals, especially women, who have been disproportionately affected by the Taliban’s rule.

Aligning with Islamic principles would be true to our shared faith

This is as substantive a rebuke as possible. The Islamic Emirate is already isolated on the international stage, confronts neighbours like Pakistan, and now faces a lack of confidence from the Muslim world.

But it is not only a rebuke. For the interests of Afghanistan, and especially Afghan women, the Taliban should know we — the Muslim scholars from various global schools of thought and sects — are keen to work with them to align their policies with Islamic principles. 

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That would of course be in their interest. It would also be true to our shared faith.

The virtues we call for are not the property of the West nor restricted to any one part of the world. 

The values we are calling the Taliban to follow are not imitations of Western culture but come from our sacred texts and traditions. 

This is why we close with the first verse of the fourth chapter of the Qur’an, named simply, “Women,” which commands believers “to remember God, who created you from one soul, and from that soul a partner, and spread forth from those two many men and many women.”

Dr Mohammad bin Abdulkarim Al Issa is the Secretary General of the Muslim World League (MWL), the world’s largest Islamic NGO.

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View from Israel: ‘Gutteres wants Israel to lose, but he will fail’

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The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

Hamas understands that it can not win on the battlefield, so it tries to win in the court of global public opinion. Gutteres, unfortunately, appears to be the poster boy for these efforts, Middle East Forum Israel’s Nave Dromi writes.

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In 2017, shortly after becoming Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres said: “Israel needs to be treated like any other UN member state”.

It was a solid start for someone who promised equality for the one Jewish State. Even in his personal manifesto, released as part of the election process, 

Guterres specifically related to the need to eliminate antisemitism in one of the issues of his five-point plan toward the UN’s engagement in a culture of preventing crises.

Unfortunately, Gutteres’ real colours were demonstrated in the days after the massacre that took place on 7 October, when Hamas mass murder and rape squads infiltrated Israel to murder over 1,200 people, injure thousands and kidnap 250 Israelis and people of other nationalities, in the worst single day of bloodshed for the Jewish people since the end of the Holocaust.

Before the blood of Israelis was even dry, and weeks before a single boot of the Israel Defense Forces was in Gaza, Guterres could find little to no sympathy for the beleaguered Jewish State.

Loosened lips and real views on display

The UN Secretary-General said the mass murder “did not happen in a vacuum,” because Palestinians have been subjected to 56 years of “suffocating occupation”. He also said that he is “deeply concerned about clear violations of international humanitarian law that we are witnessing in Gaza.”

These are the types of expressions or reactions that Gutteres has not used on any other conflict on Earth. Even more startlingly, he was shocked when there was pushback from many Europeans and Americans over his remarks.

However, it appears these comments are not unique, they just received more attention than equally scurrilous remarks, seemingly justifying terrorism, he made in the past.

In June 2022, Guterres spoke at a conference of countries that donate to UNRWA. He said then: “Imagine yourself in this situation, imagine what you would feel and imagine what would happen when someone from ISIS came to you and said, ‘What are you doing, persevering in hope, why don’t you join us and try to do whatever you want’, you know, the things that happen more and more with terrorist organizations around the world.”

It is clear that now Gutteres is in his second and final term, and at the age of 74 with few political pretensions, his lips have been loosened and his real views are on display.

Why adopt Hamas’ lies?

Worse than his initial heartless comments, Gutteres appears to be on a mission to ensure that the State of Israel loses in its war against Hamas, a terrorist organization whose charter aspires to the genocide of Jews all over the world, and other Islamic Republic of Iran proxies.

Chapter VII, Article 51 of the United Nations Charter reads: “Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations.”

Gutteres, in word and deed — ever since Israel started its war of self-defence against terrorists who say openly they would commit the 7 October massacre “again and again” — has tried to bar Israel from prosecuting the war successfully and defeating its enemies, in direct opposition to his own charter.

In the over six months since the attack, Israel has made impressive gains against Hamas and Islamic Jihad. It has already killed around 15,000 terrorists and is moving quickly towards their full defeat.

Even if we take the notoriously faked and unreliable numbers of the Hamas-run Health Ministry as fact, the ratio of combatant to civilian is around one-to-one. The international average is one combatant to nine civilians, so Israel is acting nine times better than any other nation at war in recent years.

These are the facts, but one would not know it from Gutteres and many of the bodies under his control, who systematically ignore Israel’s unprecedented warning system to civilians to leave arenas of conflict, and accept and adopt the Hamas lies that only civilians are targeted by the IDF.

Our collective better future is at stake

Gutteres has been quick to accept these lies even when they have been proven untrue, like the now infamous Al-Ahli hospital explosion which was initially blamed on Israel but was in fact caused by an errant Islamic Jihad missile aimed at Israeli civilians, the unfortunate deaths due to a stampede attacking humanitarian aid trucks and the accusations of mass rape of Palestinian women at Shifa Hospital. 

The latter was the result of one woman’s claims that she herself has now admitted were lies to gain international sympathy.

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Hamas understands that it can not win on the battlefield, so it tries to win in the media, in the court of global public opinion, and in international institutions where it can weaken Israel’s ability to win in its war against genocidal terrorism.

Gutteres, unfortunately, appears to be the poster boy for these efforts. He accepts every Hamas statistic, every Jihadi lie and clears the way for any attack against the Jewish State in the international forums under his control.

It is now clear that Gutteres used sympathy for Israel’s uniquely isolated position at the UN to gain his position and win over friends in Europe and the US, who pay a disproportionate amount of his organization’s budget. However, now he has no need for it; he has shown his only goal appears to be a defeated and weakened Israel.

Thankfully, this doesn’t appear to be working and Israel is on course for victory over terrorism, which can then be turned into peace, security and stability for the people of the region.

If Israel wins, the Palestinian people will be free of their authoritarian Islamist leaders, pragmatic Sunni states in the Middle East and beyond who have common cause with Israel against Iran will sign normalization agreements, and there will be historic peace in the region.

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This is the better future that is at stake in this war. It is one that Israel desperately seeks, and one the UN Secretary-General tries desperately to prevent.

Nave Dromi is the director of the Middle East Forum Israel office.

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Europe needs to embrace pragmatism to not lose the Global South

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The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

The EU and other like-minded allies must fully wake up from our previous unipolar dream — and stable world — and step forward as a credible key partner for the Global South in this turbulent decade, Radu Magdin writes.

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It’s an open secret that Western diplomacy is not having its best days in the Global South. 

When it came to the UN to condemn Russia in 2022, most countries that abstained were in the Global South — and very much in line with public opinion: polling at the time suggested only 45% of the public would have supported any overly bullish condemnation of Russia. 

Meanwhile, while only 5% of US citizens surveyed suggested that they see Russia as an ally, over 80% of Indians, 79% of Chinese and 69% of Turkish respondents described Russia either as an ally or partner.

If the unipolar moment is taken as point of reference, then some of this might very well be surprising. But the reality on the ground for most of the Global South (despite some contesting the term, will use it as the most general and inclusive for this article’s arguments) was always ambivalent. 

If this prompts a diplomatic awakening for Western diplomacy, the global commons might be better for it. Still, several aspects need to be understood first: promoting liberal democratic values is increasingly harder, money is not a dirty word and alliances based on temporary interest are to be accepted.

I want to buy the world a Coca-Cola

Since the 1970s and the midst of the Cold War, the US relied on building a public image based on a mix of social liberalism and a showcase of material prosperity: you get to have your cake and eat it too was the subtext of American diplomacy. 

To an extent, it was a master-stroke — of luck as well, as the Soviets were relying too much on ideology and having a non-competitive economic model. 

The Nixon administration positioned the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency and the US fully took up the mantle of the world’s trading empire from the UK. 

As trade networks spread across the world and incomes increased, that ideology became the first port of call to every person from the factory worker to the local intelligence officer everywhere, including the Soviet Union. 

As Jackson J Spielvogel said in Western Civilisation: “most Soviet citizens didn’t want democratic freedom, they wanted the freedom to shop till you drop”. 

In fact, that ideology became almost universal, to the extent that Francis Fukuyama’s proposition in the 1990s that it doesn’t have any rivals left was actually true. 

The advantage this gave Washington in foreign policy would be hard to quantify but when your product becomes the default, it’s a sign that your market position is rather strong: think Xerox or Kleenex in the 1990s.

That age is over. It didn’t end with the Twin Towers or other events when pundits felt obliged to grandiloquently declare that history is back — but with a whimper: a lot of Western citizens can’t shop till they drop, and everyone can duly see that. 

The West/North is no longer alone in global prosperity. There is a need for economic reinvention and renewed competitiveness, while other countries’ citizens exhibit global prosperity. 

In turn, that means that Western diplomats in general can no longer rely on entering each negotiating room as the default winners and need to engage with their foreign counterparts while truly accounting for their wants and needs, factional loyalties, and personal interests.

Time to change focus

The West should acknowledge what works (and what does not) in this new reality. 

Promises of golden futures in exchange for the golden strait-jackets of SWIFT, international FDI (aid to trade is more desired in the Global South, the question is how to get there faster) and IMF loans have been ringing hollow for over a decade. 

So, it should not be surprising that many abstaining countries are also those over which the US and the EU — as well as other Global North allies — have little real leverage. 

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In no small part that is because they never became as integrated in the global economy as assumed, and the world remains imbalanced while global competition increases, with Asia a bigger player at the global table, including for African and Latam futures.

As long as the promise of a nightcap was on the table, many countries in the Global South were willing to forgo other alternatives. 

Still, the reality is that Western policymakers will have to put forward genuine economic and financial goods that can either help foreign counterparts or represent something that could be sold to the general populace as worthy of re-election.

We’ll always have self-interests

Due to its cultural supremacy, the US has been able to rely on a grand strategy of soft power, beyond obvious hard power advantages. Europeans also counted on their soft power, while joining the Americans in virtue-signalling. 

But the plain reality is that we all also follow our own interests as well. And sometimes our interests include not only permanent alliances but also temporary ones. 

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In fact, short-term alliances based on matching interests should no longer be dismissed, especially at a time of great power competition.

It is time to accept that issues such as fentanyl trafficking or helping Ukraine will ultimately involve working with entities one is not comfortable with. In other words, the normalcy of pragmatism is needed to succeed. 

That is valid, including for global charm offensives, and here the Europeans have the advantage, in the EU framework, by exploring in the Global South the idea of lead countries, who due to their history have more soft power and affection on the ground than the average. 

For example, in recent months, Eastern European states such as Romania have adopted Africa strategies, and they can work closely with partners to help raise Western credibility on the continent.

Taking such core considerations on board can enable the US, the EU and other like-minded allies such as Japan and Australia to fully wake up from our previous unipolar dream — and stable world — and step forward as a credible key partner for the Global South in a turbulent decade. 

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Otherwise, we risk losing ground to global and regional challenges; losing face and competitiveness on a global stage; and losing, importantly, the trust of the youthful Global South whose next generation of leaders is looking actively at fast development options.  

Radu Magdin is CEO of Smartlink and former advisor to prime ministers of Romania (2014-2015) and Moldova (2016-2017).

At Euronews, we believe all views matter. Contact us at [email protected] to send pitches or submissions and be part of the conversation.

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America’s failed ‘War on Terror’ in Africa is a global security crisis

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Without a drastic shift in policy that supports the emergence of strong and cohesive African societies, the world will be thrown into a global security crisis of earth-shattering proportions, Christine Odera writes.

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New shocking figures from the US Department of Defence are a glaring indictment of US policy in Africa: America’s “War on Terror” has disastrously spiked terrorism in Africa by an astonishing 100,000%, with Islamist violence alone jumping 20% in just the last year.

Decades of misguided US intervention have catapulted Africa into the epicentre of global terrorism, responsible for nearly half the world’s terrorist acts. 

This alarming trend dominated discussions at the African Union summit in Ethiopia, amidst a backdrop of escalating violence and political chaos.

Countries like Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso are already withdrawing from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) after military coups — a move that threatens to plunge the region into deeper turmoil.

The so-called Islamic State, having been territorially defeated in the Middle East, is also worryingly expanding its influence in West Africa and the Sahel, reportedly even readying itself to carry out attacks abroad once more.

The harsh truth is America and the wider Western approach, no matter how well-intentioned, sought security without fostering development and tragically achieved neither.

Because of these failures, Africa is now caught in the crosshairs of Washington’s authoritarian rivals, Russia and China. 

They’re aggressively establishing military bases and deploying foreign mercenaries who commit horrific human rights violations, especially against African women, in a ruthless scramble for Africa’s riches.

More boots on the ground won’t solve anything

For two decades, American counter-terrorism efforts in Africa have been centred on two main fronts: Somalia and West Africa. Each saw huge spikes in terrorism last year with France even recalling 1,500 troops from Niger after the recent coup.

But in a UNDP report last year, the most powerful factor pushing people into violent extremism was “disaffection with government”, with 40% of recruits into militant groups citing economic hardship specifically.

Those who live by the gun are taught that it is the only way to survive and prosper. 

This is a political message, not a religious one. Without addressing it appropriately, conflicts will fester and grow, plunging the world into endless displacement and refugee crises it cannot absorb or solve.

Global North nations must acknowledge their disastrous policies’ impact on Africa and urgently rebalance security and development strategies to prevent local terror groups from becoming emboldened enough to harbour global ambitions.

Because the solution isn’t increasing its armed presence — such as through the largest US-led joint military exercise — or forcing Western societal models onto Africa, but by embracing the continent’s unique strengths and diversity.

This means investing in Africa’s burgeoning youth, backing African-led peace and conflict resolution initiatives, empowering respected community and religious leaders over capricious and divisive politicians, and forging new economic partnerships that can counterbalance Russian and Chinese influence.

Faith-based organisations are taking the initiative

In the absence of unifying political leaders to create this counterbalance and bring Africans together, community and faith-based organisations are filling the trust deficit — and their potential and capacity to do more should not be underestimated.

For example, Islamic Relief Worldwide (IRW) goes beyond providing humanitarian aid: they are peacebuilders in conflict zones, offering lifelines by pairing economic empowerment with education to uproot the seeds of extremism and strengthen communities from the inside out. 

Locally in Kenya, the Inter-Religious Council of Kenya (IRCK) unites diverse religious groups to dismantle extremist ideologies, hosting transformative peace workshops and fostering a culture of interfaith understanding in regions plagued by violence.

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Other NGOs like the Muslim World League (MWL) work regionally to promote a tolerant vision of Islam through groundbreaking documents like the Charter of Makkah which was signed by 1200 prominent Islamic figures from 139 countries in 2019. 

The Charter is actively being implemented through counter-extremism and capacity — which supports human rights, religious tolerance, and women’s rights — to strike at the core of why individuals turn to terrorism.

The MWL’s Secretary General, Dr Mohammed Al-Issa, has already forged ties with the African Islamic Union, an organisation with an estimated 100 million followers, which is now implementing the Charter to train a new generation of Imams across the region.

We’re failing to learn from our failures

The reality is that changing behaviours and attitudes for a day only requires the kind of transactional relationships that Russia and China offer, but changing the dynamic between communities for the long term requires the kind of tireless and sensitive approach adopted by influential civil society and grassroots leaders.

The opportunity for the West to finally get things right remains: reorientate towards strengthening civil society over a cold, security-above-all-else approach that has not even contained the problem of extremism, let alone put into motion solutions to solve it.

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Failure to learn from failed policies risks a future where a continent, soon home to a quarter of the world’s population, spirals further into extremism. 

To reverse this trend, we must not only rally around leaders who have consistently demonstrated moral leadership in times of crisis but also support their mission to create new generations of African leaders who do the same.

The stakes couldn’t be higher with Russia and China looking on. Washington’s war on terror failed dramatically in Africa, and without a drastic shift in policy that supports the emergence of strong and cohesive African societies, the world will be thrown into a global security crisis of earth-shattering proportions.

Christine Odera is a Kenyan peace and security expert. She is Member of the Board of Directors (Council) for Kenya’s National Youth Service (NYS), Co-Chair of the Kenya Coalition on Youth Peace, and former Global Coordinator of the Commonwealth Youth Peace Ambassadors Network based in London.

At Euronews, we believe all views matter. Contact us at [email protected] to send pitches or submissions and be part of the conversation.

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20 years after the Madrid attacks, violent extremism is far from over

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The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

As we reflect on the lessons learned in the past two decades, it is clear that there are no easy solutions or quick fixes to the threat posed by Islamist terrorism, Dr Hans-Jakob Schindler writes.

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Two decades ago, on March 11, 2004, Europe was shaken by what is still one of the deadliest terror attacks on its soil. 

The Madrid train bombings, which claimed the lives of 191 people and injured over 2,000 others, left an indelible mark on Spain and the global community. 

As we mark the anniversary of this tragic event, it is evident that despite significant advances in counter-terrorism capabilities, the challenges posed by Islamist extremism and terrorism remain as complex and formidable as ever.

The intervening years have seen a string of horrific attacks hit Europe, from the 7/7 Underground attacks in London, to the Manchester Arena bombing and the attacks on the offices of Charlie Hebdo and the Bataclan theatre in Paris, as well as the attack on a Christmas Market in Berlin, along with countless smaller incidents that have claimed the lives of innocent civilians and sowed fear and division in communities across Europe and beyond.

While many more attacks have been prevented in time, the inability of security services to stop them entirely underscores the complexity and persistence of the threat. 

A rapidly moving target

One of the central challenges faced by counter-terrorism practitioners is the dynamic and adaptive nature of Islamist terrorist groups. 

Despite concerted efforts to degrade their capabilities and disrupt their networks, groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS as well as their various branches continue to demonstrate resilience and an appetite to carry out or inspire attacks. 

Their ability to adapt to changing geopolitical dynamics, exploit technological advancements, and capitalise on local grievances makes them formidable adversaries.

The ongoing conflict in Gaza has provided an apparent impetus for these groups to stay relevant. In the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ attack on 7 October last year, both the so-called ISIS and al-Qaeda called on their followers to carry out strikes against the West and Jews in particular. 

Hamas itself has been revealed to rely on worrying levels of support in the West, and it is a question of when, and not if its sympathisers will be inspired to more violence on our streets.

The phenomenon of returning foreign fighters further compounds the challenge of countering Islamist terrorism. 

In recent years, Europe has struggled to address the influx of battle-hardened individuals with the potential to carry out attacks here. 

Repeated arrests of cells loyal to ISKP, the ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan, in several countries in Europe since 2020 demonstrate that organised attacks of trained fighters also remain a clear threat. 

The scale and scope of this challenge are daunting, requiring robust border security measures, effective intelligence-sharing mechanisms, and comprehensive strategies for rehabilitation and reintegration.

Putting a stop to it online

Over the past decade, the proliferation of online radicalisation represented a real paradigm shift in the threat landscape. 

While online radicalisation is itself not new, the COVID-19 pandemic turbo-charged the dissemination of terrorist and extremist propaganda and increased online recruitment and incitement on a global scale. 

The anonymity and accessibility afforded by online platforms have facilitated the radicalisation of individuals who may never have come into contact with extremists or terrorists and their ideologies in the physical world. 

In the last few years, we have increasingly seen young people in particular prosecuted for planning such attacks inspired by online content. These solitary online radicalisations pose a significant challenge for law enforcement and intelligence agencies.

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Despite recent legislation at EU and national level, addressing this challenge in practice is remarkably difficult. 

Most social media platforms and online fora have struggled to prevent extremist and terrorist content from being shared and promoted, while others simply still do not invest sufficient resources.

Beyond removing such content, the focus of the authorities and counter-extremism organisations must also be on countering these messages through education and de-radicalisation. 

The fact that a group as brutal as the Houthis, previously unknown to most of those who now champion them, has been able to stylise itself successfully as a liberation movement online, shows just how serious the information vacuum is and how weak the defensive mechanisms of online platforms are, some of which are among the most profitable business entities in human history.

No easy solutions, no quick fixes

Recent events underscore the need not only for proper targeting of extremism prevention, but also for greater vigilance and cooperation among international partners. 

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The transnational nature of the Islamist terrorism threat necessitates a coordinated and collaborative response that transcends borders and bureaucratic silos. 

Intelligence-sharing, capacity-building, and diplomatic engagement are essential components of a holistic approach to countering violent extremism. 

Similar to the financial industry, online service providers must finally become fully part of the first line of defence. 

Treating them primarily as outside partners, with only general regulatory guidelines and fines not commensurate with their immense profit margins, is a gap in the system protecting our societies that should be eliminated.

As we reflect on the lessons learned in the past two decades, it is clear that there are no easy solutions or quick fixes to the threat posed by Islamist terrorism. 

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We must remain vigilant and proactive in our efforts to confront the poison of violent extremism if we want to minimise the recurrence of further tragedies like the Madrid train bombings. 

The 20th anniversary serves as a poignant reminder of the enduring nature of the threat and the imperative of collective action to address it.

Dr Hans-Jakob Schindler is Senior Director at the Counter Extremism Project.

At Euronews, we believe all views matter. Contact us at [email protected] to send pitches or submissions and be part of the conversation.

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Why it’s urgent that we fight for reproductive rights in Europe

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The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

On this International Women’s Day, we the citizens of Europe have a chance to let our voices be heard. We demand the protection of women’s rights today and into the future, Nika Kovač writes.

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Marta, Anna, Jusyna, Beata, Iza, Joanna, Izabela, Alicija, Dorota. These are just some of the names of women who have died in Poland due to an almost total ban on abortion. 

This ban has a devastating impact on many women and their families. And yet, Poland was one of the first European countries to introduce legal rights to abortion back in 1932.

This striking turnaround didn’t happen overnight. It happened gradually, starting in the 1990s, and by 2020 an almost total ban was passed by the Constitutional Court in a decision that is generally perceived as politically motivated and is in discord with the majority of Polish people who support abortion in all or most circumstances.

It shows how quickly reproductive rights can be threatened, and that every generation needs to fight for them all over again.

Around the world, women’s control of their bodies is being undermined. The decision by the US Supreme Court in June 2022 to overturn the rights afforded women by Roe vs Wade was a seismic shift but elsewhere, away from the glare of publicity, reproductive rights are threatened by attacks that are more subtle – but just as insidious.

The UK has seen a sharp increase in prosecutions of women for suspected illegal abortions, with as many women convicted in the 18 months to February as in the previous 55 years.

While countries such as Poland have taken legislative and other steps to significantly reduce women’s rights, a number of others still regulate abortion primarily through their penal or criminal codes. 

This prioritises rules around what can and can’t be done legally, potentially putting women and those who assist them, at risk of committing criminal offences, rather than treating abortion like all other medical services, which are focused on meeting an individual’s healthcare needs.

Many EU countries restrict access through economic and practical hurdles, including highly restrictive timeframes to access abortion, obligatory non-medical steps such as counselling and waiting times, and financial requirements, eg excluding abortion from insurance and free healthcare provision. 

After Roe v Wade was overturned, the European Parliament reacted to the situation by MEPs passing a resolution in 2022 calling for the European Council to enshrine “the right to safe and legal abortion” in the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights. 

But this resolution and other statements by visible EU functionaries didn’t lead to much concrete action.

We’re putting women’s lives at risk

Abortion laws in Poland and Malta remain the strictest, in addition, many countries still have provisions in place that make access for women very difficult. 

Germany and Belgium, for example, require medically unnecessary procedures, such as counselling and a waiting period, before abortion can be accessed. 

In Italy, women struggle to find doctors willing to carry out abortions due to laws that provide for a “conscientious objector” status, which has been adopted by around two-thirds of doctors. 

In Spain, where conscientious objection among physicians is also high in some regions, women are often forced to travel long distances in search of a doctor who will carry out the procedure they need. 

Although abortion is possible within the first three months of pregnancy in Austria, it is not covered by health insurance, leaving women to cover the €300 to €1,000 themselves.

These provisions disproportionately disadvantage women with limited resources, and those in difficult circumstances, for example, young women or people with pre-existing or pregnancy-related illnesses.

Needless to say, this situation causes needless suffering and is putting women’s health, and lives, at risk.

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Things might get worse post-European elections

Abortion and reproductive rights have rarely been high up the agenda of the EU and the EU elections. 

However, it seems that might change in the run-up to the European ballot in June this year. 

Current projections indicate a surge in strength for the far-right which often has anti-abortion positions in their agenda, building on recent electoral wins in the Netherlands, Italy, Finland and Sweden.

On the other hand, recent successes, such as the vote in France to enshrine women’s right to an abortion in the Constitution, are positive.

The stark reality is that well-funded internationally connected neoconservative actors that take their steps from the same playbook are trying to erode existing rights all across Europe. 

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Recent polling shows that the majority of EU citizens support access to abortion for women in all or most situations, but this is not enough on its own to ensure those rights are protected.

All of this has brought activists together from across the EU to launch the My Voice, My Choice European Citizens’ Initiative, or ECI. 

An EU mechanism could be the solution

An ECI allows any citizens in the EU to gather signatures in support of a cause, and to put their proposal to the European Commission for consideration. 

To qualify, initiatives must be supported by 1 million or more people from at least seven EU countries within the specified timeframe. It is the only mechanism by which EU citizens can call on the European Commission to propose new legislation.

My Voice, My Choice is a grassroots coalition for reproductive rights, bringing together committed individuals and organisations to argue for action to be taken to turn support for abortion rights into reality for all women in the EU. 

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We are proposing the creation of a fund that will support member states in providing safe and accessible abortion care to all who need it in accordance with their laws. 

The fund will support the creation of safe and accessible abortion services in areas where this is needed and also enable women in need of abortion services to travel across EU borders if necessary. 

We are waiting for the European Commission to register our initiative so that we can start collecting signatures.

Citizens of Europe have a chance to speak up

The campaign is rooted in the belief that every woman should have the right to make informed decisions about her body without facing unnecessary barriers or endangering her health and well-being, based on the understanding that the right to choose is a common value. 

It is the absence of a ban; it is neither an instruction nor a guideline. It is only an option that is given to every woman. 

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It is a fundamental principle of public health that does not differentiate between individuals. It’s an open space where a woman is free to decide so that in the end she can say: “This was my decision.”

The My Voice, My Choice overall goal is to safeguard and advance abortion rights across Europe, ensuring that all women have access to the safe, respectful, and legal healthcare services they deserve. 

We cannot take the right to safe access to abortion for granted. That is why our message on this year’s International Women’s Day is that we the citizens of Europe have a chance to speak up, to let our voices be heard and that we demand the protection of women’s rights today and into the future.

Nika Kovač is the founding director of the 8th of March Research Institute, a movement-building organization that uses storytelling and advocacy to confront gender and economic inequalities.

At Euronews, we believe all views matter. Contact us at [email protected] to send pitches or submissions and be part of the conversation.

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Germany’s Olaf Scholz has become a major problem for Ukraine

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The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

Between leaked recordings, loose-lipped press conferences and confused policy, the German chancellor is in serious trouble.

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After months of what appeared to be an effective stalemate, a new narrative of the Ukrainian conflict is setting in: unless the West both expands and speeds up its support for the Ukrainian military, Russia could soon have a major window of opportunity.

And with the US House of Representatives still yet to clear a new package of American military aid, European NATO allies are moving to ramp up their contributions to the war effort. But not all of them are on the same page – and the continent’s largest economy is suddenly looking like a major political and strategic problem for both Ukraine and NATO as a whole.

Germany has been on a long journey since the Russian invasion in February 2022. The then-relatively new government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz oversaw a major change in German defence policy by announcing the country would provide Ukraine with military hardware, a move that helped prove how seriously the West as a whole was taking the conflict.

Since then, however, the Germans’ part in the war has been somewhat muddled. On the one hand, German Euros and materiel have been reaching Ukraine, albeit on a stop-start basis. The country’s defence ministry clearly acknowledges the seriousness of the conflict: it has increasingly urged Europe to anticipate a larger Russian threat to countries beyond Ukraine, and is deploying combat-ready battalions to Lithuania, meaning German troops will be stationed just 100km away from the Russian border.

But on the other hand, Scholz’s government has lately been resisting pressure to share one of its most powerful military assets with the Ukrainians just when they need it most. 

The item in question is the Taurus missile, a stealth missile with a 500km range – twice the range of the British Storm Shadow and French Scalp missiles, both of which have been used by Ukraine to hit major Russian military targets.

The Ukrainians have been asking for the Taurus system for months, but Scholz has so far refused. The chancellor has claimed that the missiles cannot be sent to Ukraine because it would entail putting German troops on the ground to programme them, a move that he claimed could threaten a dangerous escalation.

Scholz made a major diplomatic misstep at a recent summit when he implied that French and British forces are operating cruise missiles that are ostensibly under Ukrainian control – something neither country admits is happening. The head of the UK House of Commons’s Foreign Affairs Committee called the remarks “wrong, irresponsible and a slap in the face to allies”. 

But worse than Scholz’s refusal to send Tauruses to Ukraine was the recent leak of a recording in which German air force officers could be heard directly contradicting Scholz’s argument, instead confirming that the missile would not in fact require the deployment of German manpower inside Ukraine.

The recording was revealed in Russian media, with Moscow threatening “dire consequences” for Germany if Taurus is deployed in Ukraine.

Former president Dmitry Medvedev, who has voiced some of the Kremlin’s most extreme rhetoric since the invasion, responded with a pair of nationalistic tirades in response via the messaging app Telegram, sharing a Second World War-era poem entitled “Kill Him!” and writing, “The call of the Great Patriotic War has become relevant again: “DEATH TO THE GERMAN-NAZI OCCUPIERS!”

Caught out

That such a sensitive conversation could be recorded and leaked at all, not least by the Russians, has horrified many in Germany and NATO more widely. But the revelation that Scholz’s public pretext for withholding the Taurus is baseless has caused deep anger.

According to Benjamin Tallis, Senior Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, the recording shows that the chancellor is not truly committed to a Ukrainian victory.

“Holding back like this risks a Ukrainian defeat, which would put all of Europe at great risk” he told Euronews. “Scholz’s arguments have been dismantled one by one and revealed to be excuses. Allies have sent similar weapons and faced no retaliation. All Scholz is doing is projecting weakness and making Germany more of a target.

“Following the Taurus leak, it seems that what Scholz is really afraid of is the weapon’s effectiveness. This betrays his position of not wanting Ukraine to win – and it’s an approach that lets down all Europeans by making us less safe.”

The saga of the Taurus missile and the leaked recording comes at an extremely inopportune moment in the Ukrainian conflict.

Recent Russian advances in the east of the country have owed a lot to a shortage of ammunition on the Ukrainian side, which Kyiv and some of its allies have attributed to certain Western countries’ slowness to resupply the war effort.

Aside from continuing to inflict major casualties on the Russian military – which Kyiv claims has lost well over 400,000 troops since February 2022 – the Ukrainian Armed Forces are currently focusing on destroying high-value military assets that the Russians will struggle to replace, among them a high-tech Russian patrol ship that was hit by a sea drone on 4 March.

These strikes have multiple benefits: aside from costing nothing in Ukrainian lives, they both undermine Russia’s tactical abilities and challenge the idea that its enormous resources offer anything like a guarantee of victory. The same goes for missile and drone strikes within Russian territory, particularly in the border region of Belgorod, which Ukraine has targeted multiple times.

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But without enough Western hardware to continue these efforts, and with ever more reports of troops retreating from positions with depleted ammunition, Ukraine will struggle to keep its closest allies’ hopes alive.



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Iran’s upcoming election is a mafia-style tussle of Khamenei’s minions

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The 1 March election is set to be an insider patron-client fight, with various oligarchic clans competing to have the upper-hand insider hand and ultimately a greater slice of the pie in the kleptocratic so-called “holy system” that is the Islamic Republic, Saeid Golkar and Kasra Aarabi write.

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Friday marks parliamentary election day in the Islamic Republic of Iran — or so the regime will want the world to believe. 

Cue the staged queues lining up at the ballot box ready to deliver their rehearsed script on “Islamic democracy” to international journalists, who will in turn flaunt their “rare and exclusive” reports in Iran. 

And while some mainstream media outlets in the West will no doubt fall into the ayatollah’s trap, polling day on 1 March is anything but a free and fair vote.

Of course, this will (hopefully) come as no surprise to many: there are no democratic elections in Iran. 

Rather, all candidates are pre-approved by the 84-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — who rules with absolute authority as God’s representative on Earth — and the outcome is manufactured to his taste. 

But even for the standards of the Islamic Republic, election engineering has been unprecedented this time around.

A patron-client fight is about to unfold

The lack of consequences for the Islamic Republic has meant the previously self-conscious Khamenei no longer cares what the world thinks of his regime. 

He has pulled off the veil of electoral “legitimacy” and exposed the naked totalitarianism of his regime.

In the process, we’ve witnessed mass disqualifications and even the boycotting of the vote by some elements of the Islamist left (often wrongly depicted as “reformists”). 

In turn, only the Islamist right — the social base of Khamenei and his all-powerful paramilitary force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — has been permitted to run for office.

But “electoral” competition, if we can call it that, isn’t between political parties. Instead, 1 March will be an insider patron-client fight, with various oligarchic clans competing to have the upper-hand insider hand and ultimately a greater slice of the pie in the kleptocratic so-called “holy system” that is the Islamic Republic. 

Competition is centred on egos, personalities and resources, not political power per se. After all, Iran’s legislature, the Majlis, has very little, if any, authority — and the successful candidates will be nothing more than Khamenei’s minions.

So, who are the patron-client networks battling it out?

The infighting of the old guard

In simplest terms, this mafia-like tussle is between the old cohort of Khamenei absolutists and the supreme leader’s younger generation of zealots.

The figureheads of each clan have produced a list of Khamenei pre-approved candidates that will represent their network on the “ballot”. 

While some of these patrons have entered the race themselves, others have preferred to guide from afar — and, in doing so, present themselves as less opportunistic.

The old guard all fall under three main figures.

The first is none other than Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the incumbent Majlis speaker who has earned the title of the IRGC’s “most corrupt commander” — a remarkable achievement given the already rampant corruption in the Guard. 

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Ghalibaf’s most recent corruption scandal took place this week, with leaked documents revealing his son laundering hundreds of thousands of dollars in Western banks. 

Until now, Ghalibaf has been continuously bailed out by Khamenei’s close circle each time he has found himself in a corruption scandal. But the latest case may prove too far — and it has provided his opponents with ammo to strike.

Next in line is Gholam-Ali Hadad Adel, a senior adviser to the supreme leader. 

Hadad-Adel is very much in the inner circle of Khamenei connected through family relations, with his daughter married to Khamenei’s power-hungry son, Mojtaba — tipped to be the next supreme leader.

Last but certainly not least is fiery hardline cleric Morteza Aghatehrani. Aghatehrani was the student and protégé of the late Ayatollah Mohammad Taqhi Mesbah-Yazdi, the IRGC’s ideological forefather who once issued a fatwa that encouraged acid attacks on women with “improper” hijab.

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While this old cohort will be battling out between themselves, their main fight will be with the younger generation of elites who are just as, if not more, radical and extreme. They can be split into two patron-client groups.

The ‘kids’ are not alright

The first falls under Mehrdad Bazrpash, incumbent Minister for Roads and Urban Development and the former IRGC’s Student Basij Organisation for Sharif University — an entity sanctioned for gross human rights violations. 

Bazrpash’s rise took place under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when at only 27, the former hardline president made him head of “Saipa” and “Pars Khodro”, two of the biggest car manufacturing companies in Iran — all as a reward for his ideological commitment. 

While Bazrpash will not be directly participating, he will be fielding candidates under his political faction called “Sharayan”.

And finally, there’s the new crazy on the block: the IRGC-affiliated Ali Akbar Raeifpour. 

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Raefipour can be best described as a radical antisemitic conspiracy preacher. He has teamed up with Saeed Mohammad — a young and radical IRGC commander who had rising political ambitions that were cut short by the Guard’s old cohort, not least Ghalibaf. 

Despite the noise, Raeifpour’s network is unlikely to mount a serious challenge to the old oligarchic elite. 

But the fact that this radical preacher, whose extremism was once regarded as being “too irrational” even for segments of the hardline clerical establishment is indicative of the “dumbification” of the regime. 

The “dumbification” refers to Khamenei’s systematic effort to replace experience and knowledge for absolute ideological commitment — or what his circle has termed “purification”.

The regime doesn’t care

This mafia-like competition between the supreme leader’s older and younger zealots in the Majlis is identical to that of the coming elections for the so-called “Assembly of Experts”, which are also taking place on 1 March. 

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In theory, this body is responsible for selecting the next supreme leader, but in practice, it is tightly controlled by Khamenei.

In the past five years, as part of his manifesto for the next 40 years, Khamenei has been able to fully personalise power in the Islamic Republic and “purify” its ranks so as to ensure the triumph of his cult of personality across every branch of government. 

In doing so, the 84-year-old ayatollah’s goal is to both guarantee a smooth succession process — ousting all but absolutists — and to ensure his hardline Islamist ideology outlives him.

While these patron-client oligarchs will be battling it out for a bigger share of the pie, the overwhelming majority of the Iranian people have paid no attention to the election circus. 

According to state-backed figures, which are always inflated, as few as 15% of Iranians in the capital Tehran are planning to actually go to the polls. Not that the regime cares.

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Inevitably, there will be only one winner from this week’s “vote” — namely, Khamenei himself.

Kasra Aarabi is Director of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) research at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), specialising in Iranian military and security affairs and Shi’a extremism. He is also a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC. Saeid Golkar is Senior Advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) and UC Foundation Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga.

At Euronews, we believe all views matter. Contact us at [email protected] to send pitches or submissions and be part of the conversation.

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