These non-tech stocks are ‘back from the dead.’ Here’s where we stand

Workers walk towards Halliburton Co. “sand castles” at an Anadarko Petroleum Corp. hydraulic fracturing (fracking) site north of Dacono, Colorado, U.S., on Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2014.

Jamie Schwaberow | Bloomberg | Getty Images

A number of Club stocks that were unloved on Wall Street earlier in the year have seen their fortunes rebound in recent months, including oilfield-services firm Halliburton (HAL) and industrial Caterpillar (CAT) — creating potential opportunities to lock in gains.  

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The American banking landscape is on the cusp of a seismic shift. Expect more pain to come

The whirlwind weekend in late April that saw the country’s biggest bank take over its most troubled regional lender marked the end of one wave of problems — and the start of another.

After emerging with the winning bid for First Republic, a lender to rich coastal families that had $229 billion in assets, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon delivered the soothing words craved by investors after weeks of stomach-churning volatility: “This part of the crisis is over.”

But even as the dust settles from a string of government seizures of failed midsized banks, the forces that sparked the regional banking crisis in March are still at play.

Rising interest rates will deepen losses on securities held by banks and motivate savers to pull cash from accounts, squeezing the main way these companies make money. Losses on commercial real estate and other loans have just begun to register for banks, further shrinking their bottom lines. Regulators will turn their sights on midsized institutions after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank exposed supervisory lapses.  

What is coming will likely be the most significant shift in the American banking landscape since the 2008 financial crisis. Many of the country’s 4,672 lenders will be forced into the arms of stronger banks over the next few years, either by market forces or regulators, according to a dozen executives, advisors and investment bankers who spoke with CNBC.

“You’re going to have a massive wave of M&A among smaller banks because they need to get bigger,” said the co-president of a top six U.S. bank who declined to be identified speaking candidly about industry consolidation. “We’re the only country in the world that has this many banks.”

How’d we get here?

To understand the roots of the regional bank crisis, it helps to look back to the turmoil of 2008, caused by irresponsible lending that fueled a housing bubble whose collapse nearly toppled the global economy.

The aftermath of that earlier crisis brought scrutiny on the world’s biggest banks, which needed bailouts to avert disaster. As a result, it was ultimately institutions with $250 billion or more in assets that saw the most changes, including annual stress tests and stiffer rules governing how much loss-absorbing capital they had to keep on their balance sheets.

Non-giant banks, meanwhile, were viewed as safer and skirted by with less federal oversight. In the years after 2008, regional and small banks often traded for a premium to their bigger peers, and banks that showed steady growth by catering to wealthy homeowners or startup investors, like First Republic and SVB, were rewarded with rising stock prices. But while they were less complex than the giant banks, they were not necessarily less risky.

The sudden collapse of SVB in March showed how quickly a bank could unravel, dispelling one of the core assumptions of the industry: the so-called stickiness of deposits. Low interest rates and bond-purchasing programs that defined the post-2008 years flooded banks with a cheap source of funding and lulled depositors into leaving cash parked at accounts that paid negligible rates.

“For at least 15 years, banks have been awash in deposits and with low rates, it cost them nothing,” said Brian Graham, a banking veteran and co-founder of advisory firm Klaros Group. “That’s clearly changed.”

‘Under stress’

After 10 straight rate hikes and with banks making headline news again this year, depositors have moved funds in search of higher yields or greater perceived safety. Now it’s the too-big-to-fail banks, with their implicit government backstop, that are seen as the safest places to park money. Big bank stocks have outperformed regionals. JPMorgan shares are up 7.6% this year, while the KBW Regional Banking Index is down more than 20%.

That illustrates one of the lessons of March’s tumult. Online tools have made moving money easier, and social media platforms have led to coordinated fears over lenders. Deposits that in the past were considered “sticky,” or unlikely to move, have suddenly become slippery. The industry’s funding is more expensive as a result, especially for smaller banks with a higher percentage of uninsured deposits. But even the megabanks have been forced to pay higher rates to retain deposits.

Some of those pressures will be visible as regional banks disclose second-quarter results this month. Banks including Zions and KeyCorp told investors last month that interest revenue was coming in lower than expected, and Deutsche Bank analyst Matt O’Connor warned that regional banks may begin slashing dividend payouts.

JPMorgan kicks off bank earnings Friday.

“The fundamental issue with the regional banking system is the underlying business model is under stress,” said incoming Lazard CEO Peter Orszag. “Some of these banks will survive by being the buyer rather than the target. We could see over time fewer, larger regionals.”

Walking wounded

Compounding the industry’s dilemma is the expectation that regulators will tighten oversight of banks, particularly those in the $100 billion to $250 billion asset range, which is where First Republic and SVB slotted.

“There’s going to be a lot more costs coming down the pipe that’s going to depress returns and pressure earnings,” said Chris Wolfe, a Fitch banking analyst who previously worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

“Higher fixed costs require greater scale, whether you’re in steel manufacturing or banking,” he said. “The incentives for banks to get bigger have just gone up materially.”

Half of the country’s banks will likely be swallowed by competitors in the next decade, said Wolfe.

While SVB and First Republic saw the greatest exodus of deposits in March, other banks were wounded in that chaotic period, according to a top investment banker who advises financial institutions. Most banks saw a drop in first-quarter deposits below about 10%, but those that lost more than that may be troubled, the banker said.

“If you happen to be one of the banks that lost 10% to 20% of deposits, you’ve got problems,” said the banker, who declined to be identified speaking about potential clients. “You’ve got to either go raise capital and bleed your balance sheet or you’ve got to sell yourself” to alleviate the pressure.

A third option is to simply wait until the bonds that are underwater eventually mature and roll off banks’ balance sheets – or until falling interest rates ease the losses.

But that could take years to play out, and it exposes banks to the risk that something else goes wrong, such as rising defaults on office loans. That could put some banks into a precarious position of not having enough capital.

‘False calm’

In the meantime, banks are already seeking to unload assets and businesses to boost capital, according to another veteran financials banker and former Goldman Sachs partner. They are weighing sales of payments, asset management and fintech operations, this banker said.

“A fair number of them are looking at their balance sheet and trying to figure out, `What do I have that I can sell and get an attractive price for?'” the banker said.

Banks are in a bind, however, because the market isn’t open for fresh sales of lenders’ stock, despite their depressed valuations, according to Lazard’s Orszag. Institutional investors are staying away because further rate increases could cause another leg down for the sector, he said.

Orszag referred to the last few weeks as a “false calm” that could be shattered when banks post second-quarter results. The industry still faces the risk that the negative feedback loop of falling stock prices and deposit runs could return, he said.

“All you need is one or two banks to say, ‘Deposits are down another 20%’ and all of a sudden, you will be back to similar scenarios,” Orszag said. “Pounding on equity prices, which then feeds into deposit flight, which then feeds back on the equity prices.”

Deals on the horizon

It will take perhaps a year or longer for mergers to ramp up, multiple bankers said. That’s because acquirers would absorb hits to their own capital when taking over competitors with underwater bonds. Executives are also looking for the “all clear” signal from regulators on consolidation after several deals have been scuttled in recent years.

While Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has signaled an openness to bank mergers, recent remarks from the Justice Department indicate greater deal scrutiny on antitrust concerns, and influential lawmakers including Sen. Elizabeth Warren oppose more banking consolidation.

When the logjam does break, deals will likely cluster in several brackets as banks seek to optimize their size in the new regime.

Banks that once benefited from being below $250 billion in assets may find those advantages gone, leading to more deals among midsized lenders. Other deals will create bulked-up entities below the $100 billion and $10 billion asset levels, which are likely regulatory thresholds, according to Klaros co-founder Graham.

Bigger banks have more resources to adhere to coming regulations and consumers’ technology demands, advantages that have helped financial giants including JPMorgan steadily grow earnings despite higher capital requirements. Still, the process isn’t likely to be a comfortable one for sellers.

But distress for one bank means opportunity for another. Amalgamated Bank, a New York-based institution with $7.8 billion in assets that caters to unions and nonprofits, will consider acquisitions after its stock price recovers, according to CFO Jason Darby.

“Once our currency returns to a place where we feel it’s more appropriate, we’ll take a look at our ability to roll up,” Darby said. “I do think you’ll see more and more banks raising their hands and saying, `We’re looking for strategic partners’ as the future unfolds.”

Two financial experts discuss the Fed's next steps and the future of the U.S. banking system

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Jim Cramer’s top 10 things to watch in the stock market Tuesday

My top 10 things to watch Tuesday, May 2

1. DuPont (DD) delivers a first-quarter earnings beat Tuesday, with adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) of 84 cents, compared with analysts’ forecasts of 80 cents per share. But the materials giant cut its full-year revenue forecast, sending shares nearly 5% lower in premarket trading. DuPont also says it’s agreed to buy Spectrum Plastics Group from AEA Investors for $1.75 billion, in a deal that should be immediately accretive.

2. Club holding Morgan Stanley (MS) is planning to cut 3,000 jobs in the bank’s second round of layoffs in six months, Reuters reported Monday.

3. Tesla (TSLA) raises prices on some models of its electric vehicles in the U.S., China, Japan and Canada. The news come after several rounds of price cuts earlier this year.

4. Citi calls SoFi Technologies‘ (SOFI) post-earnings sell-off “unwarranted,” while reiterating a buy rating and $10-per-share price target. Meanwhile, Wedbush downgrades SOFI to neutral from outperform and lowers its price target to $5 per share, from $8.

5. TD Cowen raises its price target on health insurer Humana (HUM) to $616 per share, from $581, while reiterating an outperform rating. The Club holding last week delivered a first-quarter earnings beat and raised its guidance.

6. Uber Technologies (UBER) reports a first-quarter revenue beat of $8.82 billion, ahead of analysts’ forecasts for $8.72 billion, sending the stock soaring by nearly 10% in premarket trading. The company reports an EPS loss of 8 cents, compared with expectations for a 9 cent-per-share loss, while guiding for gross bookings of $33 billion to $34 billion in the second quarter.

7. BP reports stronger-than-expected first-quarter profits on Tuesday, with its underlying replacement cost profit coming in at $4.96 billion on the back of strong oil-and-gas trading. The British oil major expects to deliver share buybacks totaling $4 billion for the year, at the lower end of its capital expenditure range of $14 billion to $18 billion. Shares of BP were down roughly 5% in premarket trading.

8. Morgan Stanley raises its price target on Exxon Mobil (XOM) to $122 per share, from $118, while reiterating an overweight rating on the stock. The bank cites the U.S. oil major’s record first-quarter profit, which it reported last Friday.

9. Bank of America raises its price target on Brinker International (EAT) to $33 per share, from $29, reflecting a higher market multiple. But the firm maintains its underperform, or sell, rating on EAT stock.

10. The CEO of International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), Arvind Krishna, said the company plans to pause hiring for back-office roles that could be replaced by artificial intelligence (AI) in the coming years. “I could easily see 30% [roughly 7,800 jobs] of that getting replaced by AI and automation over a five-year period,” Krishna told Bloomberg.

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Swiss central bank promises regulation review after collapse of Credit Suisse

Thomas Jordan, president of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), speaks during the bank’s annual general meeting in Bern, Switzerland, on Friday, April 28, 2023.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The Swiss National Bank on Friday pledged to review banking regulations during its annual general meeting in Bern, following recent turmoil involving Credit Suisse.

Set against a backdrop of protest over its action on climate change and its role in the emergency sale of Credit Suisse to Swiss rival UBS, Thomas Jordan, chairman of the governing board at the SNB, said banking regulation and supervision will have to be reviewed in light of recent events.

“This will require in-depth analysis … quick fixes must be avoided,” he said, according to a statement.

The central bank played a key role in brokering the rescue of Credit Suisse over the course of a chaotic weekend in March, as a flight of deposits and plummeting share price took the 167-year-old institution to the brink of collapse.

The deal remains mired in controversy and legal challenges, particularly over the lack of investor input and the unconventional decision to wipe out 15 billion Swiss francs ($16.8 billion) of Credit Suisse AT1 bonds.

The demise of the country’s second-largest bank fomented widespread discontent and severely damaged Switzerland’s long-held reputation for financial stability. It also came against a febrile political backdrop, with federal elections coming up in October.

Jordan said Friday that future regulation will have to “compel banks to hold sufficient assets which they can pledge or transfer at any time without restriction, and which they can thus deliver as collateral to existing liquidity facilities.” He added that this would mean his central bank could would be able to provide the necessary liquidity, in times of stress, without the need for emergency law.

A shareholder holding a placard reading in German: “Invest in the planet and not in its destruction” takes part in a protest ahead of a general meeting of of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in Bern on April 28, 2023. (Photo by Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP) (Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images)

Fabrice Coffrini | Afp | Getty Images

The SNB faced questions and grievances from shareholders about the Credit Suisse situation on Friday, but the country’s network of climate activists also sought to use the central bank’s unwanted spotlight to challenge its investment policies. Activists failed to gain traction with a vote to reprimand the SNB’s investment decisions, with just 0.8% of shareholders backing the move, according to Reuters.

Unlike many major central banks, the SNB operates publicly-traded company, with just over half of its roughly 25 million Swiss franc ($28.1 million) share capital held by public shareholders — including various Swiss cantons (states) and cantonal banks — while the remaining shares are held by private investors.

More than 170 climate activists have now purchased a SNB share, according to the SNB Coalition, a dedicated pressure group spun out of Alliance Climatique Suisse — an umbrella organization representing around 140 Swiss environmental campaign groups.

Around 50 of the activist shareholders were attendance on Friday, and activists had planned to make around a dozen speeches on stage at the AGM, climate campaigner Jonas Kampus told CNBC on Wednesday. Protests were also held outside the event with Reuters reporting that the campaigners totaled 100, leading to tight security.

The group is calling for the SNB to dispose of its stock holdings of “companies that cause serious environmental damage and/or violate fundamental human rights,” pointing to the central bank’s own investment guidelines.

In particular, campaigners have highlighted SNB holdings in Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Repsol, Enbridge and Duke Energy.

Members of a Ugandan community objecting to TotalEnergies’ East African Crude Oil Pipeline, were also set to attend on Friday, with one planning to speak on stage directly to the SNB directorate.

As well as a full exit from fossil fuel investments, activists are demanding that the SNB implement the “one for one rule,” — a capital requirement designed to prevent banks and insurers benefiting from activities that are detrimental for the transition to net zero.

In this context, the SNB would be required to set aside one Swiss franc of its own funds to cover potential losses for each franc allocated to financing new fossil fuel exploration or extraction.

Ahead of the AGM, the central bank declined on legal grounds to schedule three motions tabled by the activists, and said on Wednesday that it would not comment on protest plans, instead directing CNBC to its formal agenda. Yet Kampus suggested that just the process of submitting the motions itself had helped expand public and political awareness of the issues.

“From all sides, there is public pressure and also political pressure that the SNB needs to change things. At this moment, the SNB is really far behind in terms of their actions taken compared to other central banks,” Kampus told CNBC via telephone, adding that the SNB takes a “very conservative view” of its mandate regarding price stability and financial stability, which is “very narrow.”

The shareholders’ cause is also backed by a motion in parliament, with support from lawmakers ranging from the Green Party to the Centre [center-right party], which demands an extension of the SNB’s mandate to cover climate and environmental risks.

“While other central banks around the world are going well beyond the steps taken by the SNB in ​​this respect — the SNB has repeatedly taken the position that its mandate does not give it sufficient leeway to take climate risks fully into account in its decisions and monetary policy instruments,” reads the motion, filed on March 16 by Green Party lawmaker Delphine Klopfenstein Broggini.

Swiss National Bank chair: Maintaining stability is our main goal

“The present parliamentary initiative is intended to ensure this leeway and to make it clear that the SNB must take climate risks into account when conducting monetary policy.”

The motion argues that climate risks are “classified worldwide as significant financial risks that can endanger financial and price stability,” concluding that it is in “Switzerland’s overall interest that the SNB proactively address these issues” as other central banks are seeking to do.

Kampus and his fellow activists hope the national focus on the SNB after the Credit Suisse crisis provides fertile ground to advance concerns about climate risk, which he said poses a risk to the financial system that is “several times larger” than the potential fallout from Credit Suisse’s collapse.

“We feel that there is also a window of opportunity on the SNB side in that they maybe this time are a bit more humble, because they obviously also have done some things wrong in terms of the Credit Suisse crash,” Kampus said.

He noted that the central bank has always asserted that climate risk was incorporated into its models and that there was “no need for further exchange with the public of further transparency.”

Investor who predicted Credit Suisse decline says Swiss banking model is 'damaged'

“Very central to the SNB’s work is that the public just needs to trust them. Trust is something that is very important to the central bank, and to demand trust from the public without leading up to it or supporting it with further evidence that we can trust them in the long run is quite scary, especially when we don’t know what their climate model is,” he said.

The SNB has long argued that its passive investment strategy, which invests in global indexes, is part of its mandate to remain market neutral, and that it is not for the central bank to engage in climate policy. Activists hope mounting political pressure will eventually force a change in legislation to broaden the SNB’s mandate to accommodate climate and human rights as risks to financial and price stability.

UBS and Credit Suisse also faced protests from climate activists at their respective AGMs earlier this month over investment in fossil fuel companies.

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The Fed is likely to hike rates by a quarter point but it must also reassure it can contain a banking crisis

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates Wednesday by a quarter point, but it also faces the tough task of reassuring markets it can stem a worse banking crisis.

Economists mostly expect the Fed will increase its fed funds target rate range to 4.75% to 5% on Wednesday afternoon, though some expect the central bank could pause its hiking due to concerns about the banking system. Futures markets were pricing in a roughly 80% chance for a rate rise, as of Tuesday morning.

The central bank is contemplating using its interest rate tools at the same time it is trying to soothe markets and stop further bank runs. The fear is that rising rates could put further pressure on banking institutions and crimp lending further, hurting small businesses and other borrowers.

“The broader macro data shows some further tightening is warranted,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. He said the Fed will have to explain its double-barreled policy. “You have to show you can walk and chew gum at the same time, using your lender-of-last-resort powers to quell any fears about deposit flights at medium-sized banks.”

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addresses reporters after the Fed raised its target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, during a news conference at the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, February 1, 2023.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

Federal regulators stepped in to guarantee deposits at the failed Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and they provided more favorable loans to banks for a period of up to one year. The Fed joined with other global central banks Sunday to enhance liquidity through the standing dollar swap system, after UBS agreed to buy the embattled Credit Suisse.

Investors will be looking for assurances from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the central bank can contain the banking problems.

“We want to know it’s really about a few idiosyncratic institutions and not a more pervasive problem with respect to the regional bank model,” said Gapen. “In these moments, the market needs to know you feel you understand the problem and that you’re willing and capable of doing something about it. … I think they are exceptionally good at understanding where the pressure is that’s driving it and how to respond.”

A month of turmoil

Markets have been whipsawed in the last month, first by a hawkish-sounding Fed and then by fears of contagion in the banking system.

Fed officials begin their two-day meeting Tuesday. The event kicks off just two weeks after Powell warned a congressional committee that the Fed may have to hike rates even more than expected because of its battle with inflation.

Those comments sent interest rates soaring. A few days later, the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank stunned markets, sending bond yields dramatically lower. Bond yields move opposite price. Expectations for Fed rate hikes also moved dramatically: What was expected to be a half-point hike two weeks ago is now up for debate at a quarter point or even zero.

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The 2-year Treasury yield is most sensitive to Fed policy.

Messaging is the key

Gapen expects Powell to explain that the Fed is fighting inflation through its rate hikes but then also assure markets that the central bank can use other tools to preserve financial stability.

“Things going forward will be done on a meeting-by-meeting basis. It will be data dependent,” Gapen said. “We’ll have to see how the economy evolves. … We’ll have to see how financial markets behave, how the economy responds.”

The Fed is scheduled to release its rate decision along with its new economic projections at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday. Powell will speak at 2:30 p.m. ET.

The issue is they can change their forecast up to Tuesday, but how does anyone know?

Diane Swonk

Chief economist at KPMG

Gapen expects the Fed’s forecasts could show it expects a higher terminal rate, or end point for rate hikes, than it did in December. He said it could rise to about a level of 5.4% for 2023, from an earlier projection of 5.1%.

Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer at Rockefeller Global Family Office, said he expects the Fed to raise interest rates by a quarter point to instill confidence, but then signal it is finished with rate hikes.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a rally because historically whenever the Fed stops hiking, going to that pause mode, the initial knee-jerk reaction from the stock market is a rally,” he said.

He said the Fed will not likely say it is going to pause, but its messaging could be interpreted that way.

“Now, at the minimum, they want to maintain this air of stability or of confidence,” Chang said. “I don’t think they’ll do anything that could potentially roil the market. … Depending on their [projections], I think the market will think this is the final hike.”

Fed guidance could be up in the air

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said she expects the Fed is likely to pause its rate hiking because of economic uncertainty, and the fact that the contraction in bank lending will be equivalent to a tightening of Fed policy.

She also does not expect any guidance on future hikes for now, and Powell could stress the Fed is watching developments and the economic data.

“I don’t think he can commit. I think he has to keep all options on the table and say we’ll do whatever is necessary to promote price stability and financial stability,” Swonk said. “We do have some sticky inflation. There are signs the economy is weakening.”

Fed needs to 'call a timeout' and stop hiking rates, says Bleakley's Peter Boockvar

She also expects it will be difficult for the Fed to present its quarterly economic forecasts, because the problems facing the banks have created so much uncertainty. As it did during the Covid pandemic in March 2020, the Fed might temporarily suspend projections, Swonk said.

“I think it’s an important thing to take into account that this is shifting the forecast in unknown ways. You don’t want to overpromise one way or the other,” she said. Swonk also expects the Fed to withhold its so-called dot plot, the chart on which it shows anonymous forecasts from Fed officials on the path for interest rates.

“The issue is they can change their forecast up to Tuesday, but how does anyone know? You want the Fed to look unified. You don’t want dissent,” said Swonk. “Literally, these dot plots could be changing by the day. Two weeks ago, we had a Fed chairman ready to go 50 basis points.”

The impact of tighter financial conditions

The tightening of financial conditions alone could have the clout of a 1.5 percentage point hike in rates by the Fed, and that could result in the central bank cutting rates later this year, depending on the economy, Swonk said. The futures market is currently forecasting much more aggressive rate cutting than economists are, with a full percentage point — or four quarter-point cuts — for this year alone.

“If they hike and say they will pause, the market might actually be okay with that. If they do nothing, maybe the market gets nervous that after two weeks of uncertainty the Fed’s backing off their inflation fight,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. “Either way we still have a bumpy road ahead of us.”

Stock picks and investing trends from CNBC Pro:

The Fed could also make a surprise move by stopping the runoff of securities from its balance sheet. As Treasurys and mortgages mature, the Fed no longer replaces them as it did during and after the pandemic to provide liquidity to financial markets. Gapen said changing the balance sheet runoff would be unexpected. During January and February, he said about $160 billion rolled off the balance sheet.

But the balance sheet recently increased again.

“The balance sheet went up by about $300 billion, but I think the good news there is most of that went to institutions that are already known,” he said.

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A recession could come sooner on cooling bank lending

Plummeting bond yields, steep drops in oil and stock prices, and a sharp jump in volatility are all signaling that investors fear a recession is now on the near horizon.

Stocks were down Wednesday, as worries about Credit Suisse spooked markets already concerned about U.S. regional banks following the shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank

“What you’re really seeing is a significant tightening of financial conditions. What the markets are saying is this increases risks of a recession and rightfully so,” said Jim Caron, head of macro strategy for global fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “Equities are down. Bond yields are down. I think another question is: it looks like we’re pricing in three rate cuts, does that happen? You can’t rule it out.”

Bond yields came off their lows and stocks recovered some ground in afternoon trading, following reports that Swiss authorities were discussing options to stabilize Credit Suisse.

Wall Street has been debating whether the economy is heading into a recession for months, and many economists expected it to occur in the second half of this year.

But the rapid moves in markets after the regional bank failures in the U.S. has some strategists now expecting a contraction in the economy to come sooner. Economists are also ratcheting down their growth forecasts on the assumption there will be a pullback in bank lending.

“A very rough estimate is that slower loan growth by mid-size banks could subtract a half to a full percentage-point off the level of GDP over the next year or two,” wrote JPMorgan economists Wednesday. “We believe this is broadly consistent with our view that tighter monetary policy will push the US into recession later this year.”

Bank stocks again helped lead the stock market’s decline after a one-day snap back Tuesday. First Republic, for instance was down 21% and PacWest was down nearly 13%. But energy was the worst performing sector, down 5.4% as oil prices plunged more than 5%. West Texas Intermediate futures settled at $67.61 per barrel, the lowest level since December 2021. 

At the same time, the Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, rocketed to a high of 29.91 Wednesday before closing at 26.10, up 10%.

The S&P 500 closed down 0.7% at 3,891 after falling to a low of 3,838.

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“Bear market bottoms are usually retested to ensure that the low is truly in. The rising risk of recession is now being exacerbated by the increased likelihood that banks will limit their lending,” noted Sam Stovall, chief market strategist at CFRA. “As a result, the outstanding question is whether the October 12 low will hold. If it doesn’t, we see 3,200 on the S&P 500 being another likely target, based on historical precedent and technical considerations.”

Treasury bonds, usually a more staid market, also traded dramatically. The 2-year Treasury yield was at 3.93% in afternoon trading, after it took a wild swing lower to 3.72%, well off its 4.22% close Tuesday. The 2-year most closely reflects investors’ views of where Fed policy is going.

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“I think people are rightfully on edge. I guess when I look at the whole thing together, there’s a component of the rally in the [Treasury] market that is flight-to-quality. There’s also a component of this that says we’re going to tighten credit,” said Caron. “We’re going to see tighter lending standards, whether it’s in the U.S. for small- and mid-sized banks. Even the larger banks are going to tighten lending standards more.”

The Federal Reserve has been trying to slow down the economy and the strong labor market in order to fight inflation. The consumer price index rose 6% in February, a still hot number.

But the spiral of news on banks has made investors more worried that a credit contraction will pull the economy down, and further Fed interest rate hikes would only hasten that.

For that reason, fed funds futures were also trading wildly Wednesday, though the market was still pricing about a 50% chance for a quarter point hike from the Fed next Wednesday. The market was also pricing in multiple rate cuts for this year.

“Long term, I think markets are doing the right kind of thing pricing out the Fed, but I don’t know if they’re going to cut 100 basis points either,” said John Briggs, global head of economics and markets strategy at NatWest Markets. Briggs said he does not anticipate a rate hike next week. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point.

“Credit is the oil of the machine, even if the near-term shock was alleviated, and we weren’t worried about financial institutions more broadly, risk aversion is going to set in and remove credit from the economy,” he said.

Briggs said the response from a bank lending slowdown could be deflationary or at least a disinflationary shock. “Most small businesses are banked by community regional banks, and after this, even if your bank is fine, are you going to be more or less likely to offer credit to that new dry cleaner?” he said. “You’re going to be less likely.”

CFRA strategists said the Fed’s next move is not clear. “The recent downticks in the CPI and PPI readings, as well as the retrenchment of last month’s retail sales, added confidence that the Fed will soften its rigid tightening stance. But nothing is clear or certain,” wrote Stovall. “The March 22 FOMC statement and press conference is just a week away, but it will probably feel like an eternity. Waiting for tomorrow’s ECB statement and response to the emerging bank crisis in Europe also adds to uncertainty and volatility.”

The European Central Bank meets Thursday, and it had been expected to raise its benchmark rate by a half percent, but strategists say that seems less likely.

JPMorgan economists still expect a quarter-point rate hike from the Fed next Wednesday and another in May.

“We look for a quarter-point hike. A pause now would send the wrong signal about the seriousness of the Fed’s inflation resolve,” the JPMorgan economists wrote. “Relatedly, it would also send the wrong signal about ‘financial dominance,’ which is the idea that the central bank is hesitant to tighten, or quick to ease, because of concerns about financial stability.”

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, however, said he expects the Fed to hold off on a rate hike next week, and the central bank could signal the hiking cycle is done for now.

He has not been expecting a recession, and he thinks there could still be a soft landing.

“I don’t think people should underestimate the impact of those lower rates. Mortgages will go lower and that should be a lift to the housing market,” he said. Zandi said he does not expect the Fed to turn around and cut rates, however, since its fight with inflation is not over.

“I’m a little confused by the markets saying there’s a 50/50 chance of a rate hike next week, and then they’re going to take out the rate hikes. We have to see how this plays out over the next few days,” he said.

Zandi expects first-quarter growth of 1% to 2%. “But the next couple of quarters could be zero to 1%, and we may even get a negative quarter, depending on timing,” he said.

Goldman Sachs economists Wednesday also lowered their 2023 economic growth forecast, reducing it by 0.3 percentage points to 1.2%. They also pointed to the pullback in lending from small- and medium-sized banks and turmoil in the broader financial system.

Correction: This story was corrected to accurately reflect Jim Caron’s remarks that markets are pricing in three rate cuts.

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Communities struggling with banking access give banks on wheels a spin

A banking van for the Lower East Side People’s Federal Credit Union parked on the curb of West Tremont Avenue in The Bronx.

Rebecca Picciotto | CNBC

NEW YORK – Parked on the curb of West Tremont Avenue in the Bronx, amid a chain of sedans and minivans, there is sometimes a bank on wheels.

The Lower East Side People’s Federal Credit Union, a nonprofit that provides banking services to New York’s financially underserved neighborhoods, launched its mobile branch in a refurbished school bus in 2014 following the devastation of superstorm Sandy, which forced the closure of its brick-and-mortar branch. It has since upgraded to a specially designed Mercedes-Benz van that serves New York’s Lower East Side, East Harlem, the Bronx and Staten Island, partnering with community groups in the boroughs.

The van provides most of the services of a traditional bank like opening a savings or checking account, securing loans and providing financial advice. It does not, however, have an ATM due to the security risks that come with storing cash in a vehicle.

Banks on wheels are an attempt to repair the gaps within the U.S. banking landscape, which disproportionately impact Black and Hispanic communities. According to a 2022 Federal Reserve report, 40% of Black individuals are unbanked and underbanked, the highest of any racial demographic in the U.S. They are followed by Hispanic individuals, 29% of whom are either unbanked or underbanked.

Adults are considered unbanked if they do not have a bank account and rely exclusively on alternative financial services that charge high fees like check cashing, payday loans, pawn shop loans, as some examples. Underbanked means one has a bank account but still partially relies on alternative financing.

To be sure, the number of unbanked individuals has seen yearly declines, coming down to 4.5% in 2021 compared to 8.2% in 2011, according to a 2021 report from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. That decline correlated with a rise in online banking usage, one of the primary drivers of brick-and-mortar consolidation.

But given existing digital divides, if online banking fully replaces access to in-person branches, financial equity in the U.S. would remain under threat.

Banks on wheels aim to offer at least a partial solution to the increasingly deserted banking landscapes in minority communities. But even the people driving the efforts do not see them as a permanent fix.

“A physical branch is the solution. The mobile branch is a temporary thing to try and build up the physical branch – to build up membership and to build up partners,” said Alicia Portada, a spokesperson for the FCU.

Still, Portada cannot ignore the value of the mobile branches as credit unions and banks shut down faster than they open annually: “It is absolutely needed to have other options.”

BankonBuffalo, a regional bank located in Buffalo, New York, debuted its own bank on wheels this winter.

Darnell Haywood, community responsibility officer at BankonBuffalo, said that at one point, Buffalo had a bank “on every other corner within the city.” Now, Haywood describes an emptier banking landscape. The nearest bank branch is more than two miles from the city center, which, he notes particularly impacts the area’s Black and brown residents.

“When you think of Black and brown communities when it comes to banking, when it comes to anything regarding finances, the No. 1 reason why they may not have financial knowledge is because they’re not privy to access,” said Haywood. BankonBuffalo’s mobile branch is an attempt to bridge those access gaps.

Banking deserts

Employees inside the bank on wheels of Lower East Side People’s Federal Credit Union help a new customer discuss her credit and lending options

Rebecca Picciotto | CNBC

On a chilly January day in the Bronx, the FCU mobile branch had no pre-booked appointments but was ready to accept walk-ins. It was parked outside the University Neighborhood Housing Program Resource Center, an affordable-housing nonprofit. The mobile branch partners with a variety of nonprofits like the UNHP.

A UNHP member, who did not provide her name, entered the resource center office in the midafternoon. As she chatted with Jumelia Abrahamson, a UNHP director, she also met one of the LES People’s FCU representatives, Cristal Veras. After a quick conversation with Veras, she entered the mobile branch to learn more.

Inside the van, there were two small employee desks, a laminate bench for clients to wait for service and a couple of filing cabinets. It took some maneuvering for the customer to navigate the narrow aisle of the vehicle. Then she found a seat across from Gian Alvarado, the bank’s marketing and outreach specialist, who walked her through her lending and credit options. After consulting with Alvarado for roughly a half hour, the customer exited the bank on wheels, having applied for a $12,000 loan.

Historically, banks on wheels tend to make their appearance after disasters like Hurricane Katrina or public health crises, when brick-and-mortar branches are forced to pause operations. In 2022, the Lower East Side FCU mobile branch saw membership grow even higher than it had during the earlier days of the Covid pandemic, according to Portada, the FCU spokesperson.

And as online banking takes off, boosted by the pandemic, more brick-and-mortar locations are closing their doors. In 2021, U.S. bank closures reached a record high. That trend has made a lack of access to banks more than a temporary problem.

Bank deserts are any areas where there are no bank branches within 10 miles of its center, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. To be sure, many areas that do not meet that formal criteria still lack considerable access to financial services.

Nearly 10% of all U.S. bank branches shut down between 2017 and 2021 – one-third of those closures were in majority-minority and low- to moderate-income neighborhoods, according to a report from the National Community Reinvestment Coalition. When the pandemic began in March 2020, the closure rate doubled from 99 to 201 per month.

The acceleration of bank closures has only worsened preexisting gaps in Black and minority neighborhoods.

The Bronx, for example, which is predominantly populated by Hispanic and Black residents, has the fewest bank branches per household of any New York borough, according to the Association for Neighborhood & Housing Development. The borough currently has 123 bank branches, according to a national bank branch location database, down from 144 in 2018.

A Brookings analysis found that in 2017, Black-majority ZIP codes nationwide had substantially less banking competition than non-majority-Black ZIP codes, meaning that there were fewer bank branches within those areas. Less banking competition often leads to higher interest rates and lower saving rates for customers.

The racial divides of the banking landscape are especially visible in Baltimore.

A data map from the Urban Institute highlighting the butterfly-like distribution of residents in Baltimore, Maryland based on race or ethnicity.

The Urban Institute

Lawrence Brown, a researcher of racial equity and author of “The Black Butterfly: The Harmful Politics of Race and Space in America,” has analyzed geographic data of the city to outline what he coined a “Black butterfly.” That is, Baltimore is composed of a “white spine” — an affluent, predominantly white strip running down the center of the city — with “Black wings” where less developed, predominantly Black neighborhoods are concentrated.

Baltimore’s Black butterfly corresponds with which parts of the city receive investment, and, consequently, where banks are incentivized to keep doors open. For example, in Baltimore’s Roland Park, a predominantly white residential community, there are four banks on the same side of the street within one corner.

“But there are large areas, predominantly occupied by Black Baltimoreans, where they have no bank, no loan officer that they can sit down and talk to,” said Brown.

Though banking deserts are on the rise in the wake of the pandemic, lack of access to financial services in Black-majority neighborhoods is not a new phenomenon.

A brief history of banking while Black in America

The fact that banking access is disproportionately limited in Black-majority neighborhoods is, in part, a lingering effect of 20th century redlining policies, according to Brown.

After the stock market crash of 1929 and the ensuing Great Depression, the federal government created the Federal Home Loan Bank system to provide loans for housing development.

“The federal government turns the banking system into a system that redlines Black neighborhoods,” said Brown.

The FHLB provided economic development loans based on maps that outlined Black areas in red, pointing to where loan officers were to limit resources. A similar practice was conducted for Federal Housing Administration loans.

In the latter half of the 20th century, the federal government officially outlawed redlining. In 1977, Congress passed the Community Reinvestment Act, which said that banks must start lending in minority and low-income neighborhoods. According to Brown, it was not a total fix.

“Now these neighborhoods have banking institutions, but they’re receiving predatory loans. So it’s not quite the same and as it evolves, it is still having these very racialized predatory impacts,” said Brown.  

’13 generations behind’

Rashida Webb is a Black business owner who runs Salon Rx, a beauty salon in south Baltimore. When she sought seed money to start her business, she knew a traditional bank loan wouldn’t be an option. Loan officers had regularly told her that her debt, a product of her student loans, is too high.

“Well, of course. Because I’m a Black American. I’m 13 generations behind other people in this country so it’s going to be different for me,” said Webb. To get her business off the ground, she resorted to payday loans of a couple thousand dollars with roughly 17% interest rates.

“Stuff like that sometimes has to be an option when you have to put money down on a place or buy supplies,” Webb added. “And even though I’m able to pay off this predatory loan, a bank won’t give me the money because their criteria is your debt-to-income ratio. And if you’re a Black American, most likely your debt-to-income ratio is high for reasons that are out of your control.”

Given how many times Webb has been denied a loan from traditional banking institutions, she said she does not trust them. While she has not heard of mobile branches in her area, Webb said she would “definitely use a bank on wheels,” if it was properly regulated and evaluated one’s eligibility for loans on a more individualized basis.

Webb is not the only Black entrepreneur who has had to rely on alternative financing methods to launch a small business.

A data map by the Urban Institute depicting the size of small business loans in households in Baltimore, Maryland from 2011 to 2016.

The Urban Institute

Dwight Campbell, who co-owns Baltimore plant-based ice cream purveyor Cajou Creamery, used what he calls “out-of-the-box” funding strategies.

Campbell and his wife, Nicole Foster, who runs the business with him, launched a Kickstarter campaign to fund their first machine but otherwise paid for everything out of pocket to launch their business while working full-time jobs. Campbell and Foster now run their ice cream business full time but are still looking for alternative ways to raise money to fund expansion.

“The space for Black capital is very small. It’s like you’re in a museum, but the only space you have is a broom closet,” said Campbell. “There’s no doors open for capital unless it’s very, very expensive money.”

Foster has not personally heard of banks on wheels in Baltimore, but she finds banking that emphasizes community relationships appealing. She said that given the purpose of banks on wheels to bridge financial access in underserved communities, it could have been helpful in the early days of Cajou Creamery.

“Had that existed, I think it’s something we would have tapped into,” said Foster. “If we find one now even, it might be something we tap into.”

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Here’s what the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point interest rate hike means for your money

The Federal Reserve raised the target federal funds rate for the eighth time in a row on Wednesday, in its continued effort to tame persistent inflation.

At its latest meeting, the central bank approved a more modest 0.25 percentage point increase after recent signs that inflationary pressures have started to cool.

“The easing of inflation pressures is evident, but this doesn’t mean the Federal Reserve’s job is done,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “There is still a long way to go to get to 2% inflation.”

What the federal funds rate means to you

The federal funds rate, which is set by the U.S. central bank, is the interest rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Although that’s not the rate consumers pay, the Fed’s moves do affect the borrowing and saving rates consumers see every day.

This rate hike will correspond with a rise in the prime rate and immediately send financing costs higher for many forms of consumer borrowing — putting more pressure on households already under financial strain.

“Inflation has shredded household budgets and, in many cases, households have had to lean against credit cards to bridge the gap,” McBride said.

On the flip side, “with rates still rising and inflation now declining, it is the best of both worlds for savers,” he added.

How higher interest rates can affect your money

1. Your credit card rate will rise

Since most credit cards have a variable rate, there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark. As the federal funds rate rises, the prime rate does, as well, and your credit card rate follows suit within one or two billing cycles.

“Credit card interest rates are already as high as they’ve been in decades,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree. “While the Fed is taking its foot off the gas a bit when it comes to raising rates, credit card APRs almost certainly will keep climbing for at least the next few months, so it is important that cardholders continue to focus on knocking down their debt.”

Credit card annual percentage rates are now near 20%, on average, up from 16.3% a year ago, according to Bankrate. At the same time, more cardholders carry debt from month to month while paying sky-high interest charges — “that’s a bad combination,” McBride said.

At more than 19%, if you made minimum payments toward the average credit card balance — which is $5,474, according to TransUnion — it would take you almost 17 years to pay off the debt and cost you more than $7,528 in interest, Bankrate calculated.

Altogether, this rate hike will cost credit card users at least an additional $1.6 billion in interest charges in 2023, according to a separate analysis by WalletHub.

“A 0% balance transfer credit card remains one of the best weapons Americans have in the battle against credit card debt,” Schulz advised.

Otherwise, consumers should consolidate and pay off high-interest credit cards with a lower-interest personal loan, he said. “The rates on new personal loan offers have climbed recently as well, but if you have good credit, you may be able to find options that feature lower rates that what you currently have on your credit card.”

2. Mortgage rates will stay higher

Rates on 15-year and 30-year mortgages are fixed and tied to Treasury yields and the economy. As economic growth has slowed, these rates have started to come down but are still at a 10-year high, according to Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree.

The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is now around 6.4% — up almost 3 full percentage points from 3.55% a year ago.

“Relatively high rates, combined with persistently high home prices, mean that buying a home is still a challenge for many,” Channel said.

This rate hike has increased the cost of new mortgages by around 10 basis points, which translates to roughly $9,360 over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, assuming the average home loan of $401,300, WalletHub found. A basis point is equal to 0.01 of a percentage point.

“We’re still a ways away from the housing market being truly affordable, even if it has recently become a bit less expensive,” Channel said.

Other home loans are more closely tied to the Fed’s actions. Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, and home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, are pegged to the prime rate. Most ARMs adjust once a year, but a HELOC adjusts right away. Already, the average rate for a HELOC is up to 7.65% from 4.11% a year ago.

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Almost half of Americans think we’re already in a recession

3. Auto loans will get more expensive

Even though auto loans are fixed, payments are getting bigger because the price for all cars is rising along with the interest rates on new loans, so if you are planning to buy a car, you’ll shell out more in the months ahead.

The average interest rate on a five-year new car loan is currently 6.18%, up from 3.96% last year.

The Fed’s latest move could push up the average interest rate even higher, although consumers with higher credit scores may be able to secure better loan terms or look to some used car models for better deals.

Paying an annual percentage rate of 6% instead of 4% would cost consumers $2,672 more in interest over the course of a $40,000, 72-month car loan, according to data from Edmunds.

“The ever-increasing costs of financing remain a challenge,” said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights.

4. Some student loans will get pricier

Federal student loan rates are also fixed, so most borrowers won’t be affected immediately. But if you are about to borrow money for college, the interest rate on federal student loans taken out for the 2022-23 academic year already rose to 4.99%, up from 3.73% last year and any loans disbursed after July 1 will likely be even higher.

If you have a private loan, those loans may be fixed or have a variable rate tied to the Libor, prime or T-bill rates, which means that as the central bank raises rates, borrowers will likely pay more in interest, although how much more will vary by the benchmark.

Currently, average private student loan fixed rates can range from just under 4% to almost 15%, according to Bankrate. As with auto loans, they also vary widely based on your credit score.

For now, anyone with existing federal education debt will benefit from rates at 0% until the payment pause ends, which the Education Department expects to happen sometime this year.

What savers should know about higher interest rates

The good news is that interest rates on savings accounts are finally higher after the recent run of rate hikes.

While the Fed has no direct influence on deposit rates, they tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate, and the savings account rates at some of the largest retail banks, which have been near rock bottom during most of the Covid pandemic, are currently up to 0.33%, on average.

Also, thanks, in part, to lower overhead expenses, top-yielding online savings account rates are as high as 4.35%, much higher than the average rate from a traditional, brick-and-mortar bank.

Rates on one-year certificates of deposit at online banks are even higher, now around 4.75%, according to DepositAccounts.com.

As the Fed continues its rate-hiking cycle, these yields will continue to rise, as well. However, you have to shop around to take advantage of them, according to Yiming Ma, an assistant finance professor at Columbia University Business School.

“If you haven’t already, it’s really important to benefit from the high interest environment by getting a higher return,” she said.

Still, because the inflation rate is now higher than all of these rates, any money in savings loses purchasing power over time. 

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Morgan Stanley CEO says the bank’s push for more stable revenue streams has worked. It’s a key reason we own the stock

James Gorman, Chairman & CEO of Morgan Stanley, speaking on Squawk Box at the WEF in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 19th, 2023.. 

Adam Galica | CNBC

Morgan Stanley‘s (MS) multiyear transformation plan has been a success, CEO James Gorman said with pride Thursday — and, as shareholders, we see no reason to disagree.

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Here’s what the Federal Reserve’s half-point rate hike means for you

The Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage points at the end of its two-day meeting Wednesday in a continued effort to cool inflation.

Although this marks a more typical hike compared to the super-size 0.75 percentage point moves at each of the last four meetings, the central bank is far from finished, according to Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

“The months ahead will see the Fed raising interest rates at a more customary pace,” McBride said.

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The latest move is only one part of a rate-hiking cycle, which aims to bring down inflation without tipping the economy into a recession, as some feared would have happened already.

“I thought we would be in the midst of a recession at this point, and we’re not,” said Laura Veldkamp, a professor of finance and economics at Columbia University Business School.

“Every single time since World War II the Federal Reserve has acted to reduce inflation, unemployment has shot up, and we are not seeing that this time, and that’s what stands out,” she said. “I couldn’t really imagine a better scenario.”

Still, the combination of higher rates and inflation has hit household budgets particularly hard.

What the federal funds rate means for you

The federal funds rate, which is set by the central bank, is the interest rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Whether directly or indirectly, higher Fed rates influence borrowing costs for consumers and, to a lesser extent, the rates they earn on savings accounts.

For now, this leaves many Americans in a bind as inflation and higher prices cause more people to lean on credit just when interest rates rise at the fastest pace in decades.

With more economic uncertainty ahead, consumers should be taking specific steps to stabilize their finances — including paying down debt, especially costly credit card and other variable rate debt, and increasing savings, McBride advised.

Pay down high-rate debt

Since most credit cards have a variable interest rate, there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark, so short-term borrowing rates are already heading higher.

Credit card annual percentage rates are now over 19%, on average, up from 16.3% at the beginning of the year, according to Bankrate.

The cost of existing credit card debt has already increased by at least $22.9 billion due to the Fed’s rate hikes, and it will rise by an additional $3.2 billion with this latest increase, according to a recent analysis by WalletHub.

If you’re carrying a balance, “grab one of the zero-percent or low-rate balance transfer offers,” McBride advised. Cards offering 15, 18 and even 21 months with no interest on transferred balances are still widely available, he said.

“This gives you a tailwind to get the debt paid off and shields you from the effect of additional rate hikes still to come.”

Otherwise, try consolidating and paying off high-interest credit cards with a lower interest home equity loan or personal loan.

Consumers with an adjustable-rate mortgage or home equity lines of credit may also want to switch to a fixed rate. 

How to know if we are in a recession

Because longer-term 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed and tied to Treasury yields and the broader economy, those homeowners won’t be immediately impacted by a rate hike.

However, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is around 6.33% this week — up more than 3 full percentage points from 3.11% a year ago.

“These relatively high rates, combined with persistently high home prices, mean that buying a home is still a challenge for many,” said Jacob Channel, senior economic analyst at LendingTree.

The increase in mortgage rates since the start of 2022 has the same impact on affordability as a 32% increase in home prices, according to McBride’s analysis. “If you had been approved for a $300,000 mortgage in the beginning of the year, that’s the equivalent of less than $204,500 today.”

Anyone planning to finance a new car will also shell out more in the months ahead. Even though auto loans are fixed, payments are similarly getting bigger because interest rates are rising.

The average monthly payment jumped above $700 in November compared to $657 earlier in the year, despite the average amount financed and average loan term lengths staying more or less the same, according to data from Edmunds.

“Just as the industry is starting to see inventory levels get to a better place so that shoppers can actually find the vehicles they’re looking for, interest rates have risen to the point where more consumers are facing monthly payments that they likely cannot afford,” said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights. 

Federal student loan rates are also fixed, so most borrowers won’t be impacted immediately by a rate hike. However, if you have a private loan, those loans may be fixed or have a variable rate tied to the Libor, prime or T-bill rates — which means that as the Fed raises rates, borrowers will likely pay more in interest, although how much more will vary by the benchmark.

That makes this a particularly good time to identify the loans you have outstanding and see if refinancing makes sense.

Shop for higher savings rates

While the Fed has no direct influence on deposit rates, they tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate, and the savings account rates at some of the largest retail banks, which were near rock bottom during most of the Covid pandemic, are currently up to 0.24%, on average.

Thanks, in part, to lower overhead expenses, the average online savings account rate is closer to 4%, much higher than the average rate from a traditional, brick-and-mortar bank.

“The good news is savers are seeing the best returns in 14 years, if they are shopping around,” McBride said.

Top-yielding certificates of deposit, which pay between 4% and 5%, are even better than a high-yield savings account.

And yet, because the inflation rate is now higher than all of these rates, any money in savings loses purchasing power over time. 

What’s coming next for interest rates

Consumers should prepare for even higher interest rates in the coming months.

Even though the Fed has already raised rates seven times this year, more hikes are on the horizon as the central bank slowly reins in inflation.

Recent data show that these moves are starting to take affect, including a better-than-expected consumer prices report for November. However, inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.

“They will still be raising interest rates now and into 2023,” McBride said. “The ultimate stopping point is unknown, as is how long rates will stay at that eventual destination.”

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Correction: A previous version of this story misstated the extent of previous rate hikes.

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