Fed holds rates steady, upgrades assessment of economic growth

November 1, 2023

Fed holds rates steady, upgrades assessment of economic growth

Post By zittrexstore Business Breaking news, Breaking News: Economy, Breaking News: Markets, business news, Central banking, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Economic events, Economy, Federal Reserve Bank, Inflation, Interest Rates, Jerome Powell, Markets, Personnel, Prices No Comments

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday again held benchmark interest rates steady amid a backdrop of a growing economy and labor market and inflation that is still well above the central bank’s target.

In a widely expected move, the Fed’s rate-setting group unanimously agreed to hold the key federal funds rate in a target range between 5.25%-5.5%, where it has been since July. This was the second consecutive meeting that the Federal Open Market Committee chose to hold, following a string of 11 rate hikes, including four in 2023.

The decision included an upgrade to the committee’s general assessment of the economy. Stocks rallied on the news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 212 points on the session.

“The process of getting inflation sustainably down to 2% has a long way to go,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks at a news conference. He stressed that the central bank hasn’t made any decisions yet for its December meeting, saying that “The committee will always do what it thinks is appropriate at the time.”

Powell added that the FOMC is not considering or even discussing rate reductions at this time.

He also said the risks around the Fed doing too much or too little to fight inflation have become more balanced.

“This signals that while there is a potential risk for the Fed to do more, the bar has become higher for rate hikes, and we are clearly seeing this play out with two consecutive meetings of no policy action from the Fed,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management.

Economy has ‘moderated’

The post-meeting statement had indicated that “economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter,” compared with the September statement that said the economy had expanded at a “solid pace.” The statement also noted that employment gains “have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong.”

Gross domestic product expanded at a 4.9% annualized rate in the third quarter, stronger than even elevated expectations. Nonfarm payrolls growth totaled 336,000 in September, well ahead of the Wall Street outlook.

There were few other changes to the statement, other than a notation that both financial and credit conditions had tightened. The addition of “financial” to the phrase followed a surge in Treasury yields that has caused concern on Wall Street. The statement continued to note that the committee is still “determining the extent of additional policy firming” that it may need to achieve its goals. “The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy,” the statement said.

Wednesday’s decision to stay put comes with inflation slowing from its rapid pace of 2022 and a labor market that has been surprisingly resilient despite all the interest rate hikes. The increases have been targeted at easing economic growth and bringing a supply and demand mismatch in the labor market back into balance. There were 1.5 available jobs for every available worker in September, according to Labor Department data released earlier Wednesday.

Core inflation is currently running at 3.7% on an annual basis, according to the latest personal consumption expenditures price index reading, which the Fed favors as an indicator for prices.

While that has decreased steadily this year, it is well above the Fed’s 2% annual target.

The post-meeting statement indicated that the Fed sees the economy holding strong despite the rate hikes, a position in itself that could prompt policymakers into a prolonged tightening stance.

In recent days, the “higher-for-longer” mantra has become a central theme for where the Fed is headed. While multiple officials have said they think rates can stay where they are as the Fed assesses the impact of the previous increases, virtually none have said they are considering cuts anytime soon. Market pricing indicates the first cut could come around June 2024, according to CME Group data.

Surging bond yields

The restrictive stance has been a factor in the surging bond yields. Treasury yields have risen to levels not seen since 2007, the earliest days of the financial crisis, as markets parse out what is ahead. Yields and prices move in opposite direction, so a rise in the former reflects waning investor appetite for Treasurys, generally considered the largest and most liquid market in the world.

The surge in yields is seen as a byproduct of multiple factors, including stronger-than-expected economic growth, stubbornly high inflation, a hawkish Fed and an elevated “term premium” for bond investors demanding higher yields in return for the risk of holding longer-duration fixed income.

There also are worries over Treasury issuance as the government looks to finance its massive debt load. The department this week said it will be auctioning off $776 billion of debt in the fourth quarter, starting with $112 billion across three auctions next week.

During a recent appearance in New York, Powell said he thinks the economy may have to slow further to bring down inflation. Most forecasters expect economic growth to tail off ahead.

A Treasury Department forecast released earlier this week indicated that the pace of growth likely will tumble to 0.7% in the fourth quarter and just 1% for the full year in 2024. Projections the Fed released in September put expected GDP growth at 1.5% in 2024.

In the wake of the Fed’s comments, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow growth tracker slashed expectations for fourth-quarter GDP almost in half to 1.2% from 2.3%. The gauge takes in data on a real-time basis and adjusts its estimates with the latest information.

Whitney Watson, co-CIO of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said it’s likely the Fed will keep its policy unchanged into next year.

“There are risks in both directions,” Watson said. “The rise in inflation expectations, owing to higher gas prices, combined with strong economic activity, preserves the prospect of another rate hike. Conversely, a more pronounced economic slowdown caused by the growing impact of higher interest rates might accelerate the timeline for transitioning to rate cuts.”

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#Fed #holds #rates #steady #upgrades #assessment #economic #growth

October 17, 2023

It’s time to hang up on the old telecoms rulebook

Post By zittrexstore Politics 5G, Aid and development, Belgium, brazil, Business and competition, cities, cloud, Communications, Companies, Competitiveness, connectivity, Crisis, digital, Energy, Energy prices, Germany, Growth, Health Care, hospitals, india, Industry, Inflation, Innovation, Interest Rates, Internet of Things, Investment, Mobile, Philippines, Platforms, Poland, Policy, REACH, Refugees, regulation, Regulatory, research, Roaming, Russia, Safety, satellites, Seeds, Services, Single Market, Society and culture, South Korea, Spain, Spectrum, Supercomputers, sustainability, Telecoms, Thailand, transport, Ukraine, War, water No Comments

Joakim Reiter | via Vodafone

Around 120 years ago, Guglielmo Marconi planted the seeds of a communications revolution, sending the first message via a wireless link over open water. “Are you ready? Can you hear me?”, he said. Now, the telecommunications industry in Europe needs policymakers to heed that call, to realize the vision set by its 19th-century pioneers.

Next-generation telecommunications are catalyzing a transformation on par with the industrial revolution. Mobile networks are becoming programmable platforms — supercomputers that will fundamentally underpin European industrial productivity, growth and competitiveness. Combined with cloud, AI and the internet of things, the era of industrial internet will transform our economy and way of life, bringing smarter cities, energy grids and health care, as well as autonomous transport systems, factories and more to the real world.

5G is already connecting smarter, autonomous factory technologies | via Vodafone

Europe should be at the center of this revolution, just as it was in the early days of modern communications.

Next-generation telecommunications are catalyzing a transformation on par with the industrial revolution.

Even without looking at future applications, the benefits of a healthy telecoms industry for society are clear to see. Mobile technologies and services generated 5 percent of global GDP, equivalent to €4.3 trillion, in 2021. More than five billion people around the world are connected to mobile services — more people today have access to mobile communications than they do to safely-managed sanitation services. And with the combination of satellite solutions, the prospect of ensuring every person on the planet is connected may soon be within reach.

Satellite solutions, combined with mobile communications, could eliminate coverage gaps | via Vodafone

In our recent past, when COVID-19 spread across the world and societies went into lockdown, connectivity became critical for people to work from home, and for enabling schools and hospitals to offer services online. And with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when millions were forced to flee the safety of their homes, European network operators provided heavily discounted roaming and calling to ensure refugees stayed connected with loved ones.

A perfect storm of rising investment costs, inflationary pressures, interest rate hikes and intensifying competition from adjacent industries is bearing down on telecoms businesses across Europe.

These are all outcomes and opportunities, depending on the continuous investment of telecoms’ private companies.

And yet, a perfect storm of rising investment costs, inflationary pressures, interest rate hikes and intensifying competition from adjacent industries is bearing down on telecoms businesses across Europe. The war on our continent triggered a 15-fold increase in wholesale energy prices and rapid inflation. EU telecoms operators have been under pressure ever since to keep consumer prices low during a cost-of-living crisis, while confronting rapidly growing operational costs as a result. At the same time, operators also face the threat of billions of euros of extra, unforeseen costs as governments change their operating requirements in light of growing geopolitical concerns.

Telecoms operators may be resilient. But they are not invincible.

The odds are dangerously stacked against the long-term sustainability of our industry and, as a result, Europe’s own digital ambitions. Telecoms operators may be resilient. But they are not invincible.

The signs of Europe’s decline are obvious for those willing to take a closer look. European countries are lagging behind in 5G mobile connectivity, while other parts of the world — including Thailand, India and the Philippines — race ahead. Independent research by OpenSignal shows that mobile users in South Korea have an active 5G connection three times more often than those in Germany, and more than 10 times their counterparts in Belgium.

Europe needs a joined-up regulatory, policy and investment approach that restores the failing investment climate and puts the telecoms sector back to stable footing.

Average 5G connectivity in Brazil is more than three times faster than in Czechia or Poland. A recent report from the European Commission — State of the Digital Decade (europa.eu) — shows just how far Europe needs to go to reach the EU’s connectivity targets for 2030.

To arrest this decline, and successfully meet EU’s digital ambitions, something has got to give. Europe needs a joined-up regulatory, policy and investment approach that restores the failing investment climate and puts the telecoms sector back to stable footing.

Competition, innovation and efficient investment are the driving forces for the telecoms sector today. It’s time to unleash these powers — not blindly perpetuate old rules. We agree with Commissioner Breton’s recent assessment: Europe needs to redefine the DNA of its telecoms regulation. It needs a new rulebook that encourages innovation and investment, and embraces the logic of a true single market. It must reduce barriers to growth and scale in the sector and ensure spectrum — the lifeblood of our industry — is managed more efficiently. And it must find faster, futureproofed ways to level the playing field for all business operating in the wider digital sector.

But Europe is already behind, and we are running out of time. It is critical that the EU finds a balance between urgent, short-term measures and longer-term reforms. It cannot wait until 2025 to implement change.

Europeans deserve better communications technology | via Vodafone

When Marconi sent that message back in 1897, the answer to his question was, “loud and clear”. As Europe’s telecoms ministers convene this month in León, Spain, their message must be loud and clear too. European citizens and businesses deserve better communications. They deserve a telecoms rulebook that ensures networks can deliver the next revolution in digital connectivity and services.

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#time #hang #telecoms #rulebook

October 13, 2023

Getting to 2% inflation won’t be easy. This is what will need to happen, and it might not be pretty

Post By zittrexstore Business business news, Consumer prices, Economic events, Economy, Federal Reserve Bank, Inflation, Interest Rates, Prices, real estate, United States No Comments

A construction in a multifamily and single family residential housing complex is shown in the Rancho Penasquitos neighborhood, in San Diego, California, September 19, 2023.

Mike Blake | Reuters

In theory, getting inflation closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target doesn’t sound terribly difficult.

The main culprits are related to services and shelter costs, with many of the other components showing noticeable signs of easing. So targeting just two areas of the economy doesn’t seem like a gargantuan task compared to, say, the summer of 2022 when basically everything was going up.

In practice, though, it could be harder than it looks.

Prices in those two pivotal components have proven to be stickier than food and gas or even used and new cars, all of which tend to be cyclical as they rise and fall with the ebbs and flows of the broader economy.

Instead, getting better control of rents, medical care services and the like could take … well, you might not want to know.

“You need a recession,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at GlobalData TS Lombard. “You’re not going to magically get down to 2%.”

Annual inflation as measured by the consumer price index fell to 3.7% in September, or 4.1% if you kick out volatile food and energy costs, the latter of which has been rising steadily of late. While both numbers are still well ahead of the Fed’s goal, they represent progress from the days when headline inflation was running north of 9%.

The CPI components, though, told of uneven progress, helped along by an easing in items such as used-vehicle prices and medical care services but hampered by sharp increases in shelter (7.2%) and services (5.7% excluding energy services).

Drilling down further, rent of shelter also rose 7.2%, rent of primary residence was up 7.4%, and owners’ equivalent rent, pivotal figures in the CPI computation that indicates what homeowners think they could get for their properties, increased 7.1%, including a 0.6% gain in September.

Without progress on those fronts, there’s little chance of the Fed achieving its goal anytime soon.

Uncertainty ahead

“The forces that are driving the disinflation among the various bits and micro pieces of the index eventually give way to the broader macro force, which is rising, which is above-trend growth and low unemployment,” Blitz said. “Eventually that will prevail until a recession comes in, and that’s it, there’s nothing really much more to say than that.”

On the bright side, Blitz is among those in the consensus view that see any recession being fairly shallow and short. And on the even brighter side, many Wall Street economists, Goldman Sachs among them, are coming around to the view that the much-anticipated recession may not even happen.

In the interim, though, uncertainty reigns.

“Sticky-price” inflation, a measure of things such as rents, various services and insurance costs, ran at a 5.1% pace in September, down a full percentage point from May, according to the Atlanta Fed. Flexible CPI, including food, energy, vehicle costs and apparel, ran at just a 1% rate. Both represent progress, but still not a goal achieved.

Markets are puzzling over what the central bank’s next step will be: Do policymakers slap on another rate hike for good measure before year-end, or do they simply stick to the relatively new higher-for-longer script as they watch the inflation dynamics unfold?

“Inflation that is stuck at 3.7%, coupled with the strong September employment report, could be enough to prompt the Fed to indeed go for one more rate hike this year,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS, a Maryland-based real estate services firm. “Housing is the key driver of the elevated inflation numbers.”

Higher interest rates’ biggest impact has been on the housing market in terms of sales and financing costs. Yet prices are still elevated, with concern that the high rates will deter construction of new apartments and keep supply constrained.

Those factors “will only lead to higher rental prices and worsening affordability conditions in the long run,” wrote Christopher Bruen, senior director of research at the National Multifamily Housing Council. “Rising rates threaten the strength of the broader job market and economy, which has not yet fully digested the rate hikes already enacted.”

Longer-run concerns

The notion that rate increases totaling 5.25 percentage points have yet to wind their way through the economy is one factor that could keep the Fed on hold.

That, however, goes back to the idea that the economy still needs to cool before the central bank can complete the final mile of its race to bring down inflation to the 2% target.

One positive in the Fed’s favor is that pandemic-related factors largely have washed out of the economy. But other factors linger.

“Pandemic-era effects have a natural gravitational pull and we’ve seen that take place over the course of the year,” said Marta Norton, chief investment officer for the Americas at Morningstar Wealth. “However, bringing inflation the remainder of the distance to the 2% target requires economic cooling, no easy feat, given fiscal easing, the strength of the consumer and the general financial health in the corporate sector.”

Fed officials expect the economy to slow this year, though they have backed off an earlier call for a mild recession.

Policymakers have been banking on the notion that when existing rental leases expire, they will be renegotiated at lower prices, bringing down shelter inflation. However, the rising shelter and owners’ equivalent rent numbers are running counter to that thinking even though so-called asking rent inflation is easing, said Stephen Juneau, U.S. economist at Bank of America.

“Therefore, we must wait for more data to see if this is just a blip or if there is something more fundamental driving the increase such as higher rent increases in larger cities offsetting softer increases in smaller cities,” Juneau said in a note to clients Thursday. He added that the CPI report “is a reminder that we do not have good historic examples to lean on” for long-term patterns in rent inflation.

Core service numbers show inflation is still relatively elevated, says Nationwide's Kathy Bostjancic

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#inflation #wont #easy #happen #pretty

September 25, 2023

S&P 500 Turnaround: 3 Charts You Need To Watch

Post By zittrexstore Stock charts, etfs, financial charts, Interest Rates, investing, market breadth, S&P 500, sharpcharts, stocks, technical analysis, treasury yields, US economy No Comments

KEY

TAKEAWAYS

Rising Treasury yields have hurt growth stocks but buying opportunities could lie ahead
The stock market could bottom at the end of September and present buying opportunities
Watch Fibonacci levels, Equal Weighted S&P 500 Index, and market breadth for a reversal

Last week wasn’t the most optimistic on Wall Street. Even though the US economy is growing, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments after the Fed meeting weren’t what investors wanted to hear.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates steady at 5.25–5.50% wasn’t a surprise, but the possibility of higher rates for longer than expected could have caused the sell-off in the stock market following Chairman Powell’s comments. The broader equity indexes ended lower for the week, with the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) hit the hardest—down 3.6%.

Based on Powell’s comments, we can expect one more rate hike in 2023 and maybe only two rate cuts in 2024. In other words, it’ll take longer to lower rates, given that the GDP is projected to grow and the labor market remains tight. The lower-than-expected jobless claims number last week supports the possibility of inflation continuing for longer.

Higher Interest Rates

Higher interest rates aren’t great for growth stocks. If Treasury yields continue to rise or remain high, future earnings of companies that tend to borrow money become less attractive. Higher borrowing costs hurt future cash flows, which could result in lower stock prices.

It’s worth watching the chart of the 10-Year Treasury Yield Index ($TNX). The chart below shows that yields have been on a relatively steep ascent and are continuing to move higher. The 10-year Treasury yield is above 4.5%, a level not seen since 2007. If yields continue to move higher, stocks could fall even further, especially the large-cap growth stocks.

CHART 1: TREASURY YIELDS CONTINUE TO RISE. Rising Treasury yields can be a headwind for growth stocks. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If you look at the weekly chart of the Nasdaq Composite with the $TNX overlay, it’s interesting to see that from March 2020 to November 2021, the index was moving higher with the $TNX. In November 2021, a few months before the Fed started raising interest rates, the two started diverging. The Nasdaq Composite has dropped below its 100-day moving average. If it breaks below this support and takes out the August low of 13,162, the September pullback could become a reality.

The good news? It could present a buying opportunity. In a recent StockCharts TV episode of Charting Forward, three well-known technical analysts expressed their thoughts on how Q4 would unfold. All three agreed that the fourth quarter tends to be strong, with some sectors, such as Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Technology, Industrials, and Financials, likely to outperform. Commodities may also be coming off their base.

If you look at the markets now, your first thought might be it doesn’t seem like that’s likely to happen after a week. But it’s the stock market and it can turn on a dime. And given that this type of price action is typical in September, there’s a chance that the stock market could take off. All the more reason to watch the charts.

Charting Your Course With 3 Charts

Turning to the S&P 500, the weekly chart below displays that the index is at a critical support level at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (using the January 2022 high and October 2022 low) and struggling to stay there. The 50% retracement level is an interesting one since it closely aligns with the support of the 100- and 50-week moving average.

CHART 2: WATCH THE 61.8% AND 50% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS. Depending on how low the S&P 500 index goes, the Fibonacci retracement levels could be reversal points. The S&P 500 is struggling to hold the 61.8% level. The next few days should tell more about the index’s directional move. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If the S&P 500 breaks below the 61.8% Fib retracement level, the index could likely hit that 50% level of 4160. A reversal from either of these Fibonacci levels could present buying opportunities.

Another chart to pay attention to is the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index ($SPXEW). The index has been trending lower since the end of July. The chart below of $SPXEW is overlaid with the Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF (XLG), a fund with pretty strong exposure to the Magnificent Seven stocks. The chart gives you a pretty good idea of how much the two diverge. You can see that the two sometimes move closely, but other times, there’s a significant gap between the two. A reversal in $SPXEW or a narrowing of the gap between the two would be encouraging as we head into the end of September.

CHART 3: S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHTED INDEX ($SPXEW) VS. INVESCO S&P 500 TOP 50 ETF (XLG). The gap between the two is pretty wide. Look for the gap between the two to narrow and a reversal in $SPXEW. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

It’s worth viewing the market breadth indicators such as the Advance-Decline Line, the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average, and the Bullish Percent Index. The chart below displays that market breadth indicators are trending to the downside, meaning market breadth is narrowing.

CHART 4: MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS SHOW THAT BREADTH IS NARROWING. The indicators need to reverse before confirming a turnaround in the broader market. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Final Thoughts

Let’s hope the stock market turns around in October and ends strongly in Q4. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, October is a “jinx” month, but overall, especially in a pre-election year, October tends to start reversing after a terrible September and can be a great time to buy. The potential headwinds the stock market could face are rising interest rates, rising oil prices, and a possible government shutdown.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

About the author:
Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan is Director of Site Content at StockCharts.com. She spends her time coming up with content strategies, delivering content to educate traders and investors, and finding ways to make technical analysis fun. Jayanthi was Managing Editor at T3 Custom, a content marketing agency for financial brands. Prior to that, she was Managing Editor of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine for 15+ years.
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