The Fed is likely to hike rates by a quarter point but it must also reassure it can contain a banking crisis

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates Wednesday by a quarter point, but it also faces the tough task of reassuring markets it can stem a worse banking crisis.

Economists mostly expect the Fed will increase its fed funds target rate range to 4.75% to 5% on Wednesday afternoon, though some expect the central bank could pause its hiking due to concerns about the banking system. Futures markets were pricing in a roughly 80% chance for a rate rise, as of Tuesday morning.

The central bank is contemplating using its interest rate tools at the same time it is trying to soothe markets and stop further bank runs. The fear is that rising rates could put further pressure on banking institutions and crimp lending further, hurting small businesses and other borrowers.

“The broader macro data shows some further tightening is warranted,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. He said the Fed will have to explain its double-barreled policy. “You have to show you can walk and chew gum at the same time, using your lender-of-last-resort powers to quell any fears about deposit flights at medium-sized banks.”

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addresses reporters after the Fed raised its target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, during a news conference at the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, February 1, 2023.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

Federal regulators stepped in to guarantee deposits at the failed Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and they provided more favorable loans to banks for a period of up to one year. The Fed joined with other global central banks Sunday to enhance liquidity through the standing dollar swap system, after UBS agreed to buy the embattled Credit Suisse.

Investors will be looking for assurances from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the central bank can contain the banking problems.

“We want to know it’s really about a few idiosyncratic institutions and not a more pervasive problem with respect to the regional bank model,” said Gapen. “In these moments, the market needs to know you feel you understand the problem and that you’re willing and capable of doing something about it. … I think they are exceptionally good at understanding where the pressure is that’s driving it and how to respond.”

A month of turmoil

Markets have been whipsawed in the last month, first by a hawkish-sounding Fed and then by fears of contagion in the banking system.

Fed officials begin their two-day meeting Tuesday. The event kicks off just two weeks after Powell warned a congressional committee that the Fed may have to hike rates even more than expected because of its battle with inflation.

Those comments sent interest rates soaring. A few days later, the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank stunned markets, sending bond yields dramatically lower. Bond yields move opposite price. Expectations for Fed rate hikes also moved dramatically: What was expected to be a half-point hike two weeks ago is now up for debate at a quarter point or even zero.

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The 2-year Treasury yield is most sensitive to Fed policy.

Messaging is the key

Gapen expects Powell to explain that the Fed is fighting inflation through its rate hikes but then also assure markets that the central bank can use other tools to preserve financial stability.

“Things going forward will be done on a meeting-by-meeting basis. It will be data dependent,” Gapen said. “We’ll have to see how the economy evolves. … We’ll have to see how financial markets behave, how the economy responds.”

The Fed is scheduled to release its rate decision along with its new economic projections at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday. Powell will speak at 2:30 p.m. ET.

The issue is they can change their forecast up to Tuesday, but how does anyone know?

Diane Swonk

Chief economist at KPMG

Gapen expects the Fed’s forecasts could show it expects a higher terminal rate, or end point for rate hikes, than it did in December. He said it could rise to about a level of 5.4% for 2023, from an earlier projection of 5.1%.

Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer at Rockefeller Global Family Office, said he expects the Fed to raise interest rates by a quarter point to instill confidence, but then signal it is finished with rate hikes.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a rally because historically whenever the Fed stops hiking, going to that pause mode, the initial knee-jerk reaction from the stock market is a rally,” he said.

He said the Fed will not likely say it is going to pause, but its messaging could be interpreted that way.

“Now, at the minimum, they want to maintain this air of stability or of confidence,” Chang said. “I don’t think they’ll do anything that could potentially roil the market. … Depending on their [projections], I think the market will think this is the final hike.”

Fed guidance could be up in the air

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said she expects the Fed is likely to pause its rate hiking because of economic uncertainty, and the fact that the contraction in bank lending will be equivalent to a tightening of Fed policy.

She also does not expect any guidance on future hikes for now, and Powell could stress the Fed is watching developments and the economic data.

“I don’t think he can commit. I think he has to keep all options on the table and say we’ll do whatever is necessary to promote price stability and financial stability,” Swonk said. “We do have some sticky inflation. There are signs the economy is weakening.”

Fed needs to 'call a timeout' and stop hiking rates, says Bleakley's Peter Boockvar

She also expects it will be difficult for the Fed to present its quarterly economic forecasts, because the problems facing the banks have created so much uncertainty. As it did during the Covid pandemic in March 2020, the Fed might temporarily suspend projections, Swonk said.

“I think it’s an important thing to take into account that this is shifting the forecast in unknown ways. You don’t want to overpromise one way or the other,” she said. Swonk also expects the Fed to withhold its so-called dot plot, the chart on which it shows anonymous forecasts from Fed officials on the path for interest rates.

“The issue is they can change their forecast up to Tuesday, but how does anyone know? You want the Fed to look unified. You don’t want dissent,” said Swonk. “Literally, these dot plots could be changing by the day. Two weeks ago, we had a Fed chairman ready to go 50 basis points.”

The impact of tighter financial conditions

The tightening of financial conditions alone could have the clout of a 1.5 percentage point hike in rates by the Fed, and that could result in the central bank cutting rates later this year, depending on the economy, Swonk said. The futures market is currently forecasting much more aggressive rate cutting than economists are, with a full percentage point — or four quarter-point cuts — for this year alone.

“If they hike and say they will pause, the market might actually be okay with that. If they do nothing, maybe the market gets nervous that after two weeks of uncertainty the Fed’s backing off their inflation fight,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. “Either way we still have a bumpy road ahead of us.”

Stock picks and investing trends from CNBC Pro:

The Fed could also make a surprise move by stopping the runoff of securities from its balance sheet. As Treasurys and mortgages mature, the Fed no longer replaces them as it did during and after the pandemic to provide liquidity to financial markets. Gapen said changing the balance sheet runoff would be unexpected. During January and February, he said about $160 billion rolled off the balance sheet.

But the balance sheet recently increased again.

“The balance sheet went up by about $300 billion, but I think the good news there is most of that went to institutions that are already known,” he said.

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Jim Geraghty explores why Barney Frank (R) would ‘be the media’s banking-crisis villain’ right now

Man. That venture capital bank bailout mess is really something, isn’t it? To quote the great George Costanza, “This thing is like an onion. The more layers you peel, the more it stinks.”

And in case you missed it, there’s quite an interesting and stinky layer to the bailouts, and its name is Barney Frank. As in Barney Frank, the former Democratic congressman whose name is on a major piece of Wall Street reform legislation and who just so happened to be a member of the board of New-York-based Signature Bank, which went down in the same batch as Silicon Valley Bank.

National Review senior political correspondent Jim Geraghty has got a fascinating new thread today to accompany a fascinating new Morning Jolt all about how Barney Frank fits into the bank bailout puzzle — and about how, if Frank had an (R) after his name, he’d be the subject of an endless media outrage cycle:

It’s time to go on a journey.

Dun-dun-duuuunnnnnn:

Without any doubt whatsoever.

We’ll bet he doesn’t. And, infuriatingly, our incurious Guardians of Truth are just fine with that.

And it’s extremely tough to believe anything that comes out of Barney Frank’s mouth. The media know it, too. They just don’t care.

If only.

***

Related:

Jim Geraghty’s new must-read thread takes an insightful look at what the attacks on Kyrsten Sinema say about the progressive Left’s true intentions

Jim Geraghty’s latest thread takes a disturbing but valuable look at the implications of MSM’s sharp shift in coverage of Joe Biden

Jim Geraghty marks Anthony Fauci’s impending retirement with a look back at some of the biggest things the MSM let him get away with

***

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A recession could come sooner on cooling bank lending

Plummeting bond yields, steep drops in oil and stock prices, and a sharp jump in volatility are all signaling that investors fear a recession is now on the near horizon.

Stocks were down Wednesday, as worries about Credit Suisse spooked markets already concerned about U.S. regional banks following the shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank

“What you’re really seeing is a significant tightening of financial conditions. What the markets are saying is this increases risks of a recession and rightfully so,” said Jim Caron, head of macro strategy for global fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “Equities are down. Bond yields are down. I think another question is: it looks like we’re pricing in three rate cuts, does that happen? You can’t rule it out.”

Bond yields came off their lows and stocks recovered some ground in afternoon trading, following reports that Swiss authorities were discussing options to stabilize Credit Suisse.

Wall Street has been debating whether the economy is heading into a recession for months, and many economists expected it to occur in the second half of this year.

But the rapid moves in markets after the regional bank failures in the U.S. has some strategists now expecting a contraction in the economy to come sooner. Economists are also ratcheting down their growth forecasts on the assumption there will be a pullback in bank lending.

“A very rough estimate is that slower loan growth by mid-size banks could subtract a half to a full percentage-point off the level of GDP over the next year or two,” wrote JPMorgan economists Wednesday. “We believe this is broadly consistent with our view that tighter monetary policy will push the US into recession later this year.”

Bank stocks again helped lead the stock market’s decline after a one-day snap back Tuesday. First Republic, for instance was down 21% and PacWest was down nearly 13%. But energy was the worst performing sector, down 5.4% as oil prices plunged more than 5%. West Texas Intermediate futures settled at $67.61 per barrel, the lowest level since December 2021. 

At the same time, the Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, rocketed to a high of 29.91 Wednesday before closing at 26.10, up 10%.

The S&P 500 closed down 0.7% at 3,891 after falling to a low of 3,838.

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“Bear market bottoms are usually retested to ensure that the low is truly in. The rising risk of recession is now being exacerbated by the increased likelihood that banks will limit their lending,” noted Sam Stovall, chief market strategist at CFRA. “As a result, the outstanding question is whether the October 12 low will hold. If it doesn’t, we see 3,200 on the S&P 500 being another likely target, based on historical precedent and technical considerations.”

Treasury bonds, usually a more staid market, also traded dramatically. The 2-year Treasury yield was at 3.93% in afternoon trading, after it took a wild swing lower to 3.72%, well off its 4.22% close Tuesday. The 2-year most closely reflects investors’ views of where Fed policy is going.

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2 y

“I think people are rightfully on edge. I guess when I look at the whole thing together, there’s a component of the rally in the [Treasury] market that is flight-to-quality. There’s also a component of this that says we’re going to tighten credit,” said Caron. “We’re going to see tighter lending standards, whether it’s in the U.S. for small- and mid-sized banks. Even the larger banks are going to tighten lending standards more.”

The Federal Reserve has been trying to slow down the economy and the strong labor market in order to fight inflation. The consumer price index rose 6% in February, a still hot number.

But the spiral of news on banks has made investors more worried that a credit contraction will pull the economy down, and further Fed interest rate hikes would only hasten that.

For that reason, fed funds futures were also trading wildly Wednesday, though the market was still pricing about a 50% chance for a quarter point hike from the Fed next Wednesday. The market was also pricing in multiple rate cuts for this year.

“Long term, I think markets are doing the right kind of thing pricing out the Fed, but I don’t know if they’re going to cut 100 basis points either,” said John Briggs, global head of economics and markets strategy at NatWest Markets. Briggs said he does not anticipate a rate hike next week. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point.

“Credit is the oil of the machine, even if the near-term shock was alleviated, and we weren’t worried about financial institutions more broadly, risk aversion is going to set in and remove credit from the economy,” he said.

Briggs said the response from a bank lending slowdown could be deflationary or at least a disinflationary shock. “Most small businesses are banked by community regional banks, and after this, even if your bank is fine, are you going to be more or less likely to offer credit to that new dry cleaner?” he said. “You’re going to be less likely.”

CFRA strategists said the Fed’s next move is not clear. “The recent downticks in the CPI and PPI readings, as well as the retrenchment of last month’s retail sales, added confidence that the Fed will soften its rigid tightening stance. But nothing is clear or certain,” wrote Stovall. “The March 22 FOMC statement and press conference is just a week away, but it will probably feel like an eternity. Waiting for tomorrow’s ECB statement and response to the emerging bank crisis in Europe also adds to uncertainty and volatility.”

The European Central Bank meets Thursday, and it had been expected to raise its benchmark rate by a half percent, but strategists say that seems less likely.

JPMorgan economists still expect a quarter-point rate hike from the Fed next Wednesday and another in May.

“We look for a quarter-point hike. A pause now would send the wrong signal about the seriousness of the Fed’s inflation resolve,” the JPMorgan economists wrote. “Relatedly, it would also send the wrong signal about ‘financial dominance,’ which is the idea that the central bank is hesitant to tighten, or quick to ease, because of concerns about financial stability.”

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, however, said he expects the Fed to hold off on a rate hike next week, and the central bank could signal the hiking cycle is done for now.

He has not been expecting a recession, and he thinks there could still be a soft landing.

“I don’t think people should underestimate the impact of those lower rates. Mortgages will go lower and that should be a lift to the housing market,” he said. Zandi said he does not expect the Fed to turn around and cut rates, however, since its fight with inflation is not over.

“I’m a little confused by the markets saying there’s a 50/50 chance of a rate hike next week, and then they’re going to take out the rate hikes. We have to see how this plays out over the next few days,” he said.

Zandi expects first-quarter growth of 1% to 2%. “But the next couple of quarters could be zero to 1%, and we may even get a negative quarter, depending on timing,” he said.

Goldman Sachs economists Wednesday also lowered their 2023 economic growth forecast, reducing it by 0.3 percentage points to 1.2%. They also pointed to the pullback in lending from small- and medium-sized banks and turmoil in the broader financial system.

Correction: This story was corrected to accurately reflect Jim Caron’s remarks that markets are pricing in three rate cuts.

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Elizabeth Warren Said This Bank F*ckbungle Would Happen, Maybe Let’s Listen To Her This Time?

With the weekend’s failure of two big banks — Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank — America is once again vaguely aware that banking regulations have an actual effect on the economy, and, to a lesser degree, that money is imaginary anyway, just a collective agreement about numbers and who has piled them up in particular ways. So here’s Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) in the New York Times yesterday, to remind us that the failure of both banks probably could have been prevented if Donald Trump and congressional Republicans — with the aid of more Democrats than there should have been, which would have been “zero” — hadn’t rolled back significant parts of the Dodd-Frank banking regulations in 2018.

Remember how we had that huge financial crisis in 2008, and then Congress actually did something to prevent another one? Elizabeth Warren does!

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Act to protect consumers and ensure that big banks could never again take down the economy and destroy millions of lives. Wall Street chief executives and their armies of lawyers and lobbyists hated this law. They spent millions trying to defeat it, and, when they lost, spent millions more trying to weaken it.

As Warren points out, one of the bankers insisting that Dodd-Frank was too strict was Greg Becker, CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, who along with others in the industry argued that great big banks like SVB weren’t actually big enough to need rigorous oversight by the Federal Reserve, which they said was holding them back from doing great things for America.

And hey, for a while there, SVB was flying pretty high, becoming a top funder of tech startups and racking up a 40 percent increase in profits in the last three years. And everything would have been great if it weren’t for the tiny problem that SVB plowed most of its capital into long-term federal bonds, which are a great investment as long as you don’t need access to those funds to cover a little panic among depositors when interest rates go up. And as Warren points out, mostly having tech companies as customers also made SVB vulnerable to any wobble in the tech sector. (Same for Signature, which served a lot of crypto companies.) Oopsie!


Warren explains,

Had Congress and the Federal Reserve not rolled back the stricter oversight, S.V.B. and Signature would have been subject to stronger liquidity and capital requirements to withstand financial shocks. They would have been required to conduct regular stress tests to expose their vulnerabilities and shore up their businesses. But because those requirements were repealed, when an old-fashioned bank run hit S.V.B., the bank couldn’t withstand the pressure — and Signature’s collapse was close behind.

On Sunday night, regulators announced they would ensure that all deposits at S.V.B. and Signature would be repaid 100 cents on the dollar. Not just small businesses and nonprofits, but also billion-dollar companies, crypto investors and the very venture capital firms that triggered the bank run on S.V.B. in the first place — all in the name of preventing further contagion.

Hooray for the small businesses and others (as well as their employees) who might have been wiped out if the FDIC hadn’t stepped in to cover losses beyond that normal $250,000 limit on FDIC-insured accounts. But was it really necessary to make whole the very largest depositors? Warren notes that, yes, the idea is to cover all the depositors from both banks using bank funds from the pool the FDIC uses to insure against bank failures. But she adds that it’s hardly surprising that Americans “are skeptical of a system that holds millions of struggling student loan borrowers in limbo but steps in overnight to ensure that billion-dollar crypto firms won’t lose a dime in deposits.”

Well yes, that is certainly a thought-provoking comparison. Say, what was Wonkette saying about all this in 2018? It was so long ago, we barely remember (Wayne and Garth make go “doodley-oo, doodly-oo” while waving their fingers) …

Oh look! We were block-quoting a warning from Cassandra Elizabeth Warren:

“On the 10th anniversary of an enormous financial crash, Congress should not be passing laws to roll back regulations on Wall Street banks,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said in an interview. “The bill permits about 25 of the 40 largest banks in America to escape heightened scrutiny and to be regulated as if they were tiny little community banks that could have no impact on the economy.”

The new regulations passed in 2018 allowed all but the very biggest banks — those with assets of over $250 billion — to avoid the liquidity requirements and stress tests (Dodd-Frank had set the “too big to fail” bar at $50 billion). Even before the 2018 bank bill passed, we noted, several banks subjected to Federal Reserve scrutiny “have already been found to have been taking supposedly prohibited risks with investors’ money.”

Well gosh, it turns out that if you leave big banks to their own devices, they get up to mischief in pursuit of profits. Who could have predicted such a thing?

In her op-ed, Warren calls for the 2018 deregulation to be reversed by “Congress, the White House and banking regulators,” at a minimum. Rep. Katie Porter (D-California), who’s running for the Senate in 2024, is already working on a bill to do that, and President Joe Biden has also called for the regulations to be tightened.

But beyond that, Warren adds,

Bank regulators must also take a careful look under the hood at our financial institutions to see where other dangers may be lurking. Elected officials, including the Senate Republicans who, just days before S.V.B.’s collapse, pressed Mr. Powell to stave off higher capital standards, must now demand stronger — not weaker — oversight.

In addition, she says regulators should make changes to how deposit insurance works,

so that both during this crisis and in the future, businesses that are trying to make payroll and otherwise conduct ordinary financial transactions are fully covered — while ensuring the cost of protecting outsized depositors is borne by those financial institutions that pose the greatest risk.

We could certainly get behind that. And finally, says Warren, for Crom’s sake the people responsible for these failures should be kept from being rewarded, not simply by refusing to bail out the investors, but also by clawing back the big bonuses paid to the executives who drove both banks into the ditch. Beyond that, she adds,

Where needed, Congress should empower regulators to recover pay and bonuses. Prosecutors and regulators should investigate whether any executives engaged in insider trading or broke other civil or criminal laws.

But wouldn’t that be socialism? If you punish banking executives for making the occasional irresponsible bet, aren’t you really just coming after the ordinary small businessperson who won’t have the chance to be trickled down upon? Besides, as Rep. Nancy Mace (R-South Carolina) tweeted yesterday in reply to Warren, is a bank failure any time to be talking about politics? There certainly wasn’t anything political about rolling back Dodd-Frank to please Wall Street in 2018, so why get all political now?

Best to offer the banks our thoughts, prayers, and bailout money and save the blame for … oh, how about the gays?

[NYT / NBC News]

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