What a stressed commercial real estate market means for these exposed bank stocks

Collin Madden, founding partner of GEM Real Estate Partners, walks through empty office space in a building they own that is up for sale in the South Lake Union neighborhood in Seattle, Washington, May 14, 2021.

Karen Ducey | Reuters

Banks are facing mounting uncertainty as the commercial real estate (CRE) sector continues to struggle. But, tailwinds in our financial names should help safeguard their bottom lines.

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Top Wall Street analysts see solid potential in these five stocks

The Rivian name is shown on one of their new electric SUV vehicles in San Diego, U.S., December 16, 2022.

Mike Blake | Reuters

There is more to investing in the right stocks than just buying them after a hot earnings report.

Investors can become better informed by researching the opinions of Wall Street experts, especially as they dive into the details of companies’ quarterly results.

Here are five stocks chosen by Wall Street’s top analysts, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance.

Salesforce

First on this week’s list is cloud-based customer relationship management software provider Salesforce (CRM). The company recently announced that it would be raising the prices for some of its cloud products by 9% on average starting in August.

This marked the first price hike for Salesforce in seven years. Also, it comes at a time when cloud players are under pressure, as clients are optimizing their IT spending due to macro challenges. (See Salesforce Blogger Opinions & Sentiment on TipRanks) 

BMO Capital analyst Keith Bachman thinks that the company’s new generative artificial intelligence products and price increases across its core cloud products, including Sales, Service and Marketing clouds, as well as Tableau, could drive growth in fiscal year 2025 (calendar year 2024).

The analyst added that generative AI increases the importance of data, thus providing an advantage to companies that can help consolidate, curate and protect data. “In our opinion, Salesforce is well positioned to help companies leverage data, including GenAI,” said Bachman.

Bachman reiterated a buy rating on Salesforce and raised his price target to $255 from $245. He ranks No. 463 out of more than 8,500 analysts tracked on TipRanks. Also, 59% percent of his ratings have been profitable, with an average return of 8.6%.

Dell

Personal computer makers, including Dell (DELL), have been facing significant headwinds, as the demand for desktops and laptops plunged following a pandemic-driven rush.

However, Deutsche Bank analyst Sidney Ho highlighted that recent data points in the PC supply chain indicate that inventory has normalized, raising hopes that PC shipments could be above-seasonal levels in the second half of 2023.

Ho sees an upside to Dell’s Client Solutions Group (CSG) fiscal second-quarter revenue guidance of “roughly flat” on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Further, Gartner data indicates a gradual improvement in business demand trends, which works well for Dell as it has a significantly higher market share of 23% in the commercial PC market compared to a 9% share in the consumer PC market. Still, Ho cautioned about continued risks in the server market.

“Looking beyond the cyclical downturn, we believe a strong capital returns program could be a source of EPS upside for DELL, especially as its leverage ratio approaches its target level,” explained Ho.

Ho raised the price target on DELL to $60 from $48 and reiterated a buy rating. The analyst ranks 65th among more than 8,500 analysts on TipRanks. Ho’s ratings have been profitable 66% of the time, with each one delivering an average return of 23.9%. (See DELL Insider Trading Activity on TipRanks)         

Rivian Automotive

Next on our list is U.S. electric vehicle maker Rivian (RIVN), which impressed investors earlier this month with higher-than-expected deliveries for the second quarter. The company also reaffirmed its annual production guidance of 50,000 vehicles for 2023.

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh sees a possibility of Rivian exceeding its 50,000 production guidance. The analyst noted that the company is executing well, with second-quarter production rising 49% quarter-over-quarter to about 14,000 units and handily exceeding his growth estimate of 23%.   

“We see the strong 1H23 deliveries positioning RIVN well for future ramps into 2H23E and beyond,” said Rakesh, who ranks 32 among more than 8,500 analysts on TipRanks. (See Rivian Financial Statements on TipRanks) 

The analyst increased his 2023 delivery estimate for Rivian’s R1 vehicle lines to about 39,000 units from 37,000, while maintaining the estimate for its EDVs (electric delivery vans) at 11,000. The analyst expects Rivian to deliver over 92,000 and 115,000 vehicles in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

In line with his bullish stance, Rakesh increased his price target for RIVN to $30 from $27 and maintained a buy rating. Rakesh has a success rate of 64% and each of his ratings has returned 23.9%, on average.

Mobileye Global

Rakesh is also bullish on Mobileye Global (MBLY), an Israel-based provider of autonomous driving technology. The analyst said that recent trends in the electric vehicle and advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) bode well for Mobileye.

Rakesh noted that Mobileye’s key customer Zeekr, an EV brand owned by Geely Automobile, is ramping its production, with the June quarter units rising 80% sequentially to 27,000. This implies stronger prospects for Mobileye’s SuperVision systems in the June and September quarters.

The analyst now expects SuperVision units to increase 83% to about 163,000 this year, up from his prior outlook of 150,000. He also thinks that problems at Volkswagen’s software unit Cariad could create new opportunities for SuperVision at Porsche and other Volkswagen brands.

Rakesh raised his price target for MBLY to $48 from $43 and reiterated a buy rating on the stock. “We continue to see MBLY positioned well with ~70% market share and a strong AV [autonomous vehicles] roadmap,” he said. (See Mobileye Hedge Fund Trading Activity on TipRanks)           

Alphabet

The rapid growth of OpenAI’s ChatGPT has triggered massive interest in generative artificial intelligence. Tech giants, including Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), have joined the race and are making huge investments to capture opportunities in this space.

Tigress Financial Partners analyst Ivan Feinseth thinks that the growing integration of AI functionality will help Alphabet maintain its dominant position across all key technology trends, including search, mobile, cloud, data center, home automation, autonomous vehicle tech and more.

He also expects the company to benefit from the increased integration of its Android operating system into Internet of Things devices. It will also benefit from Android’s adoption by several leading automotive original equipment manufacturers as the key driver of their infotainment platforms.

Further, GOOGL continues to build and strengthen its product portfolio through strategic acquisitions and collaborations, including those focusing on AI technology. Indeed, the company is a backer of AI startup Anthropic.

“GOOGL’s strong balance sheet and cash flow enable the ongoing funding of key growth initiatives, strategic acquisitions, and the further enhancement of shareholder returns through ongoing share repurchase,” said Feinseth.    

Feinseth increased his price target for GOOGL to $172 from $160 and maintained a buy rating on the stock. The analyst holds the 201st position among more than 8,500 analysts on TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 61% of the time, with each rating delivering an average return of 13.2%. (See Alphabet Stock Chart on TipRanks)

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Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: United Airlines, Netflix, Morgan Stanley and more

Check out the companies making headlines before the bell.

United Airlines — The airline lost 0.9% in the premarket after it announced a net loss for the first quarter. United posted a loss of 63 cents per share, which is 10 cents smaller than the 73-cent estimated loss from analysts polled by Refinitiv. The company reported $11.43 billion in revenue, slightly above the $11.42 billion estimated. 

Interactive Brokers Group — Shares of the electronic broker were down 3.7% after the company reported a miss on earnings in the first quarter. The company posted earnings per share of $1.35, which fell below the $1.41 consensus estimate from analysts polled by Refinitiv.

Netflix – Shares of the streaming giant fell more than 2% after the company reported mixed results on the delayed rollout of its crackdown on password-sharing, which was originally scheduled for the first quarter. Revenue came in slightly below the analyst consensus from Refinitiv, although earnings topped estimates.

Western Alliance – Shares of the beaten-down regional bank jumped more than 20% in premarket trading after Western Alliance said its deposits have been rebounding in April after declining 11% in the first quarter. Wedbush upgraded the stock to outperform after Western Alliance’s quarterly report despite the bank’s net income falling more than 50% from the previous quarter.

Travelers — The insurance stock added more than 3% before the bell after beating Wall Street’s expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average component reported adjusted earnings of $4.11 a share on $9.40 billion in net premiums.

Intel — Shares were down almost 2% after the semiconductor manufacturer announced it would be discontinuing its bitcoin mining chip series, Blockscale, after just a year of production. 

Abbott Laboratories — The medical device company advanced 2.8% after beating top- and bottom-line expectations and reaffirming guidance. The company reported $1.03 in earnings per share on revenue of $9.75 billion for the first quarter, while analysts polled by FactSet anticipated 99 cents in per-share earnings on $9.67 billion in revenue. The company said it still expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to come in between $4.30 and $4.50, in line with the $4.39 consensus estimate of analysts. 

U.S. Bancorp — Shares of the bank were up 1.7% after it announced an earnings and revenue beat for the first quarter. U.S. Bancorp posted $1.16 earnings per share and revenue of $7.18 billion. Analysts polled by Refinitiv had estimated per-share earnings of $1.12 and revenue of $7.12 billion. Meanwhile, the bank reported its quarter-end deposits were down 3.7% to $505.3 billion. 

Rivian Automotive — The electric-vehicle maker slipped about 2% after being downgraded by RBC Capital Markets to sector perform from outperform. The Wall Street firm remains constructive on the longer-term outlook for the stock, but sees limited catalysts to accelerate profitability in the near term. It also slashed its price target in half, to $14 from $28 per share.

ASML Holding – Shares of the chipmaker lost 2.6% in early morning trading after the company reported net bookings for the first quarter were down 46% year-over-year on “mixed signals” from customers as they work through inventory. The shares fell despite ASML reporting an earnings beat for the quarter.

Boeing — Shares of the industial rgiant dipped 0.6% in premarket after CEO Dave Calhoun said that a flaw detected in some of its 737 Max planes won’t hinder its supply chain plans for increased production of its bestselling jetliner this year. The company disclosed a flaw with some of its 737 Max planes last week and said it was likely to delay deliveries.

Morgan Stanley  — Shares were down 3.2% after the bank announced its quarterly earnings. The investment bank and wealth manager posted earnings per share of $1.70 for the first quarter, greater than the $1.62 estimate from analysts polled by Refinitiv. Overall revenue came in at $14.52 billion, above the $13.92 billion consensus estimate from Refinitiv as equities and fixed income trading units performed better than expected. One growth area was wealth management, where revenue increased by 11% from a year ago. The shares, which are outperforming most other banks this year, eased by 2% in early trading despite the results.

Ally Financial — The digital financial services company’s shares were down 1.3% after its first quarter earnings and revenue missed Wall Street’s expectations. Ally posted per-share earnings of 82 cents, while analysts had anticipated 86 cents per share, according to FactSet data. The bank’s adjusted total net revenue also fell below estimates, coming in at $2.05 billion versus the $2.07 billion consensus estimate from FactSet analysts.  

Intuitive Surgical — Shares jumped 8.1% after Intuitive Surgical reported an earnings and revenue beat. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.23, topping against a consensus estimate of $1.20 per share, according to FactSet. Revenue grew 14% from the prior year, coming in at $1.70 billion, compared to estimates of $1.59 billion.

Tesla – Shares dropped more than 2% in the premarket after Tesla slashed prices on some of its Model Y and Model 3 electric vehicles in the U.S. The cuts come ahead of Tesla’s earnings report after the bell on Wednesday and is the sixth time the EV maker has lowered prices in the U.S. this year.

 Zions Bancorporation — The regional bank stock jumped nearly 4% in premarket before its earnings report after the bell Wednesday. Investors could be getting optimistic after its peer Western Alliance said in its first-quarter that deposits have stabilized since last month’s collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

CDW — The IT company’s shares plunged 10.6% after it reported a weaker-than-expected preliminary quarterly earnings report. CDW issued quarterly revenue guidance of $5.1 billion, falling below the FactSet analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.58 billion. The company said it was significantly impacted by more cautious buying amid economic uncertainty. It also issued guidance for its full-year earnings to fall “modestly below” 2022 levels.

Citizens Financial Group — Shares were down almost 4% after the company’s first-quarter earnings disappointed investors. Citizens Financial’s earnings per share came in at $1, while analysts had estimated $1.13, according to Refinitiv data. The company’s revenue of $2.13 billion also came below analysts’ expectations of $2.14 billion. Citizens Financial reported a 4.7% decline in deposits to $172.2 billion.

— CNBC’s Alex Harring, Tanaya Macheel, John Melloy, Michelle Fox, Yun Li, Jesse Pound and Kristina Partsinevelos contributed reporting

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How the job of Amazon delivery has changed with Rivian’s electric vans and routing software

For the 275,000 Amazon drivers dropping off 10 million packages a day around the world, the job can be a grind. But a lot has changed since drivers in 2021 told CNBC about unrealistic workloads, peeing in bottles, dog bites and error-prone routing software.

Among the biggest developments is the arrival of a brand-new electric van from Rivian.

Amazon was a big and early investor in the electric vehicle company, which went public in late 2021 with a plan to build trucks and SUVs for consumers and delivery vans for businesses. Since July, Amazon has rolled out more than 1,000 new Rivian vans, which are now making deliveries in more than 100 U.S. cities, including Baltimore, Chicago, Las Vegas, Nashville, New York City and Austin, Texas.

The partnership began in 2019, when Amazon founder and ex-CEO Jeff Bezos announced Amazon had purchased 100,000 electric vans from Rivian as one step toward his company’s ambitious promise of reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2040.

″[We] will have prototypes on the road next year, but 100,000 deployed by 2024,” Bezos said at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., in September 2019. Amazon has since revised the timeline, saying it expects all 100,000 Rivian vans on the road by 2030.

Rivian has faced several challenges in recent months. It cut back 2022 production amid supply chain and assembly line issues. Its stock price dropped so sharply last year that Amazon recorded a combined $11.5 billion markdown on its holdings in the first two quarters.

CNBC talked to drivers to see what’s changed with the driving experience. We also went to Amazon’s Delivering the Future event in Boston in November for a look at the technology designed to maximize safety and efficiency for delivery personnel.

For now, most Amazon drivers are still in about 110,000 gas-powered vans — primarily Ford Transits, Mercedes-Benz Sprinters and Ram ProMasters. Amazon wouldn’t share how it determines which of its 3,500 third-party delivery firms, or delivery service partners (DSPs), are receiving Rivian vans first. 

The e-commerce giant has been using DSPs to deliver its packages since 2018, allowing the company to reduce its reliance on UPS and the U.S. Postal Service for the so-called last mile, the most expensive portion of the delivery journey. The DSP, which works exclusively with Amazon, employs the drivers and is responsible for the liabilities of the road, vehicle maintenance, and the costs of hiring, benefits and overtime pay.

Amazon leases the vans to DSP owners at a discount. The company covers the fuel for gas-powered vans and installs charging stations for electric vehicles.

The company says DSP owners have generated $26 billion in revenue and now operate in 15 countries, including Saudi Arabia, India, Brazil, Canada, and all over Europe. 

What drivers think

In the early days of testing the Rivian vans, some drivers voiced concerns about range. An Amazon spokesperson told CNBC the vans can travel up to 150 miles on a single charge, which is typically plenty of power for a full shift and allows drivers to recharge the vehicle overnight.

As for maintenance, Amazon says that takes place at Rivian service centers near delivery stations or by a Rivian mobile service team, depending on location.

Julieta Dennis launched a DSP, Kangaroo Direct, in Baltimore three years ago. She employs about 75 drivers and leases more than 50 vans from Amazon. She now has 15 Rivian vehicles.

“It’s very easy to get in and out with all of the different handles to hold on to,” Dennis said. She said that some drivers were hesitant at first because the vehicles were so new and different, “but the moment they get in there and have their first experience, that’s the van that they want to drive.”

Baltimore DSP owner Julieta Dennis shows off a Rivian electric van at Amazon’s Delivering the Future event in Boston, Maryland, on November 10, 2022.

Erin Black

Brandi Monroe has been delivering for Kangaroo Direct for two years. She pointed to features on a Rivian van that are upgrades over what she’s driven in the past. There’s a large non-slip step at the back, a hand cart for helping with heavy packages and extra space for standing and walking in the cargo area.

“We have two shelves on both sides to allow for more space,” Monroe said, adding that she’d prefer to drive a Rivian for every shift. “And then the lights at the top: very innovative to help us see the packages and address a lot easier, especially at nighttime.”

There’s even a heated steering wheel.

Former driver B.J. Natividad, who goes by Avionyx on YouTube, says his non-electric van could get very cramped.

“I remember one time I had 23 or 24 bags and over 40 oversize packages and I had to be able to figure out how to stuff that all in there within the 15 minutes that they give us to load up in the morning,” said Natividad, who now works for USPS.

The Rivian vans have at least 100 more cubic feet than the Sprinter and up to double the cargo space of the Ford Transit vans Natividad drove in Las Vegas. Rivian vans are still small enough that they don’t require a special license to drive, though Amazon provides its own training for drivers.

One driver in Seattle, who asked to remain unnamed, was especially excited about the new Rivian vans. He offered an extensive tour of the new driving experience on his YouTube channel called Friday Adventure Club.

He said one of his favorite features is a light bar “that goes all the way around the back.” He also likes that the windshield is “absolutely massive,” the wide doors allow for easy entry and exit, and the cargo door automatically opens when the van is parked. There are two rows of shelves that fold up and down in the cargo area.

There’s also new technology, such as an embedded tablet with the driving route and a 360-degree view that shows all sides of the van.

Mai Le, Amazon’s vice president of Last Mile, oversaw the testing of the center console and Rivian’s integrated software.

“We did a lot of deliveries as a test,” Le said. “As a woman, I want to make sure that the seats are comfortable for me and that my legs can reach the pedals, I can see over the steering wheel.”

She demonstrated some of the benefits of the new technology.

“When we start to notice that you’re slowing down, that means that we can tell you’re getting near to your destination,” she said. “The map begins to zoom in, so you begin to find where’s your delivery location, which building and where parking could be.”

The new vans have keyless entry. They automatically lock when the driver is 15 feet away and unlock as the driver approaches. 

Workers load packages into Amazon Rivian Electric trucks at an Amazon facility in Poway, California, November 16, 2022.

Sandy Huffaker | Reuters

Cameras and safety

Above all else, Amazon says the changes were designed to make the delivery job safer.

A ProPublica report found Amazon’s contract drivers were involved in more than 60 serious crashes from 2015 to 2019, at least 10 of which were fatal. Amazon put cameras and sensors all over the Rivian vans, which enable warnings and lane assist technology that autocorrects if the vehicle veers out of the lane.

Dennis mentioned the importance of automatic braking and the steering wheel that starts “just kind of shaking when you get too close to something.”

“There’s just so many features that would really, really help cut back on some of those incidental accidents,” she said.

Amazon vans have driver-facing cameras inside, which can catch unsafe driving practices as they happen.

“The in-vehicle safety technology we have watches for poor safety behaviors like distracted driving, seat belts not being fastened, running stop signs, traffic lights,” said Beryl Tomay, who helps run the technology side of delivery as vice president of Last Mile for Amazon.

“We’ve seen over the past year a reduction of 80% to 95% in these events when we’ve warned drivers real time,” she said. “But the really game-changing results that we’ve seen have been almost a 50% reduction in accidents.”

As a DSP owner, Dennis gets alerts if her drivers exhibit patterns of unsafe behavior. 

“If something with a seat belt or just something flags, then our team will contact the driver and make sure that that’s coached on and taken care of and figured out, like what actually happened,” Dennis said.

That level of constant surveillance may be unsettling for some drivers. Dennis said that issues haven’t come up among her staffers. And Amazon stresses it’s focused on driver privacy.

“We’ve taken great care from a privacy perspective,” Tomay said. “There’s no sound ever being recorded. There’s no camera recording if the driver’s not driving and there’s a privacy mode.”

Amazon says the cabin-facing camera automatically switches off when the ignition is off, and privacy mode means it also turns off if the vehicle is stationary for more than 30 seconds.

Safety concerns extend beyond the vehicle itself. For example, an Amazon driver in Missouri was found dead in a front yard in October, allegedly after a dog attack.

Amazon says new technology can help. Drivers can choose to manually notify customers ahead of a delivery, giving them time to restrain pets. Another feature that’s coming, according to Le, will allow drivers to mark delivery locations that have pets.

Natividad said he had multiple close calls with dogs charging at him during deliveries.

“You customers out there, please restrain your dogs when you know a package is coming,” he said. “Please keep them inside. Don’t leave them just outside.”

Optimizing routes

Providing drivers with more efficient and better detailed routes could improve safety, too. Drivers in 2021 told us about losing time because Amazon’s routing software made a mistake, like not recognizing a closed road or gated community. In response, they sometimes tried to save time in other ways.

“People are running through stop signs, running through yellow lights,” said Adrienne Williams, a former DSP driver. “Everybody I knew was buckling their seat belt behind their backs because the time it took just to buckle your seat belt, unbuckle your seat belt every time was enough time to get you behind schedule.”

Amazon listened. The company has been adding a huge amount of detail to driver maps, using information from 16 third-party map vendors as well as machine learning models informed by satellite driver feedback and other sources.

One example is a new in-vehicle data collection system called Fleet Edge, which is currently in a few thousand vans. Fleet Edge collects real-time data from a street view camera and GPS device during a driver’s route.

“Due to Fleet Edge, we’ve added over 120,000 new street signs to Amazon’s mapping system,” Tomay said. “The accuracy of GPS locations has increased by over two and a half times in our test areas, improving navigation safety by announcing upcoming turns sooner.”

Tomay said the maps also added points of interest like coffee shops and restrooms, so in about 95% of metro areas, “drivers can find a spot to take a break within five minutes of a stop.”

In 2021, Amazon apologized for dismissing claims that drivers were urinating in bottles as a result of demanding delivery schedules. Natividad said he occasionally found urine-filled bottles in his vans before his shift in the mornings.

“As soon as I open the van, I’m looking around, I see a bottle of urine. I’m like, ‘Oh, I’m not touching this,'” he said.

Pay for Amazon drivers is up to the discretion of each individual DSP, although Amazon says it regularly audits DSP rates to make sure they’re competitive. Indeed.com puts average Amazon driver pay at nearly $19 an hour, 16% higher than the national average.

Natividad started delivering for Amazon in 2021 when his gigs as a fulltime disc jockey dried up because of the pandemic. He liked the job at the time, generally delivering at least 200 packages along the same route. However, during the holiday season that year, he once had more than 400 packages and 200 stops in a single shift.

“Towards the end of my day, they sent out two rescues to me to help out to make sure everything’s done before 10 hours,” he said.

Amazon is working to optimize its routes. But it’s an unwieldy operation. The company says it’s generated 225,000 unique routes per day during peak season.

Tomay said the company looks at the density of packages, the complexity of delivery locations “and any other considerations like weather and traffic from past history to put a route together that we think is ideal.”

There’s no one-size-fits-all solution.

“Given that we’re in over 20 countries and every geography looks different, it’s not just about delivery vehicles or vans anymore,” Tomay said. “We have rickshaws in India. We have walkers in Manhattan.”

In Las Vegas, Amazon held a roundtable last year for DSP owners and drivers. Natividad says he spoke for 20 minutes at the event about the need for Amazon to improve its routing algorithms.

“I think they should do that probably once a month, with all the DSP supervision and a few of the drivers, and not the same drivers every time. That way different feedback is given. And like seriously listen to them,” Natividad said. “Because they’re not the ones out there seeing and experiencing what we go through.” 

Natividad didn’t get to try out the routing technology in the Rivian vans before he left to deliver for USPS in July. He’s excited that the postal service is following in Amazon’s footsteps with 66,000 electric vans coming by 2028.

Amazon, meanwhile, is diversifying its electric fleet beyond Rivian. The company has ordered thousands of electric Ram vans from Stellantis and also has some on the way from Mercedes-Benz.

Correction: Julieta Dennis launched a DSP, Kangaroo Direct, in Baltimore three years ago. An earlier version misspelled her name.



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