Homeownership isn’t for everyone, money coach says: Don’t fall for artificial ‘pressure to buy’

Homeownership isn’t for everyone, money coach says: Don’t fall for artificial ‘pressure to buy’

Post By Business Breaking News: Investing, business news, entertainment, Housing, Investment strategy, lifestyle, Mortgages, Personal Finance, real estate

Jannese Torres is the founder of the blog Delish D’Lites and the podcast “Yo Quiero Dinero.”

Photo Jannese Torres

In her upcoming book, “Financially Lit!: The Modern Latina’s Guide to Level Up Your Dinero & Become Financially Poderosa,” author Jannese Torres discusses how she became the first woman in her family to graduate from college, build a career and achieve what she believed were marks of success.

Yet in her pursuit of the American dream, she realized that she didn’t know what to do with her financial success. She also realized certain milestones, such as homeownership, often aren’t so much achievements as a new set of challenges.

“It’s just important for people not to just feel this pressure to buy a home because you’re a certain age or you’ve reached a certain life milestone,” said Torres, a Latina money expert who hosts the podcast “Yo Quiero Dinero” and an entrepreneurship coach who helps clients pursue financial independence.

As part of its National Financial Literacy Month efforts, CNBC will be featuring stories throughout the month dedicated to helping people manage, grow and protect their money so they can truly live ambitiously.

CNBC spoke with Torres in early April about what drove her to write her new book, how she has worked through “financial survivor’s guilt,” and why pursuing the American dream can become a nightmare for some.

(This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity).

‘Nobody talks about the grief that comes with growth’

“I wanted to write the book that I needed when I was graduating from high school and that could have saved me from making a lot of financial mistakes because I didn’t learn anything about money,” said Jannese Torres, author of “Financially Lit!: The Modern Latina’s Guide to Level Up Your Dinero & Become Financially Poderosa.”

Courtesy: Jannese Torres

Ana Teresa Solá: What drove you to write this book?

Jannese Torres: When I was doing the market research for the book, one of the things that I did was look and see what the competitive market looked like out there, or if there is a reason that this book needs to exist.

I couldn’t find a single book that was specifically marketed to the Latina community or Latinos in general being the majority minority in this country.

Our families have told us to go and pursue the American dream, but we haven’t been given instructions for how to manage the emotions that come with it.

I felt like I wanted to write the book that I needed when I was graduating from high school and that could have saved me from making a lot of financial mistakes because I didn’t learn anything about money. The more that I’ve talked to folks through the podcast and through my social media platforms, that’s been a very common sentiment. We’re told to go to school, get a job and make money, but then that’s the end of the conversation. What do we actually do with it?

ATS: Like many younger generations of Latinos in the U.S., you overcame many hurdles and achieved major goals. But you describe in the book that these milestones also come with a sense of guilt. Why is guilt tied to success?

JT: I call it “financial survivor’s guilt” because this is one of those things that we have not been prepared for. Our families have told us to go and pursue the American dream, but we haven’t been given instructions for how to manage the emotions that come with it. Nobody talks about the grief that comes with growth. Nobody talks about what it feels like to be on the other side of the struggle when so many people that you love are still there and you feel powerless to help them all.

Looking back at it now, it’s like I was making all these decisions because of what other people valued versus asking myself what I actually value.

It’s going to require folks to give themselves some compassion, and to be okay to feel those feelings. But don’t let them sabotage you. It’s going to require some boundaries that you learn to exercise and also being okay with feeling like you’re on this island by yourself. When you’re the first to do something, it’s always going to feel uncomfortable. But if we don’t have examples of people who can make it out, I think it’s going to be much harder for folks to believe that they can do it, too.

‘I was over my head very quickly’

ATS: Walk me through the chapter or that point in time when you bought a house, but it wasn’t all you thought it would be.

JT: Looking back at it now, I was falling victim to the American dream. As a first-generation kid, my parents didn’t invest. The only thing that we saw as examples of “making it” was when family members would buy homes: The sacrifices were worth it and this is the thing that you have to show for your success.

When you’re the first to do something, it’s always going to feel uncomfortable. But if we don’t have examples of people who can make it out, I think it’s going to be much harder for folks to believe that they can do it, too.

Jannese Torres

Latina money expert and entrepreneurship coach

I definitely felt the pressure to keep up with the Joneses in that respect. I was turning 30 years old and I saw friends buying homes, getting married, doing all those things that are on the successful adult checklist of life. When I decided to purchase the home, it was coming from a place of, “Well, I need to do this too, because this is just what everybody does.”

I quickly realized that I bought a home in a place that I didn’t even want to live in.

Looking back at it now, it’s like I was making all these decisions because of what other people valued versus asking myself what I actually value. The freedom to have that flexibility that comes with renting is something that I valued much more.

But I felt like I was falling victim to that narrative that says, “You’re wasting money if you rent, and successful adults purchase homes.” It took a lot of unlearning of those narratives and realizing that just because something works for one person doesn’t mean that it’s universally applicable.

Homeownership is one of those things where more people need to question if they have the personality, lifestyle, or the value system for this, or are you just wanting to do it because that’s what everybody else is telling you to do.

Jannese Torres

Courtesy: Jannese Torres

ATS: What would you tell someone who’s financially comfortable or has reached certain benchmarks where they could potentially invest in a property but are still wary about it?

JT: One of the things that made me realize I was over my head very quickly was the fact that two weeks into moving into the home, I discovered that the basement would flood. The sewer line was blocked, and that was not something that we checked during inspection. I ended up having to spend $4,000 on replacing the pipe in the basement two weeks after moving in. That pretty much depleted the little money that I had left over after closing costs.

I ended up having to take a 401(k) loan to pay for repairs and putting things on credit cards. It’s important to realize that closing costs, the fees and the down payment are just the beginning.

There’s this narrative where if you get a mortgage, then you’re going to be paying the same amount of money forever and that’s why you should buy a home instead of renting. And I’m like, “Absolutely not.” Your property taxes and insurance will increase. You’re not going to be able to predict when things go wrong in the home and when you need to fix something.

You have to make sure you can afford the maintenance costs and the things that will inevitably come with homeownership. And from a value perspective, you have to really be honest with yourself: “Does this suit my lifestyle? Do I want to stay in this place for like a decade or more? … Or do I want the flexibility to give my landlord 30 days’ notice and be able to move somewhere else? Are you in a job that feels like it’s something you want to do long term? Or do you want to make a career pivot?”

‘The American dream is more of an illusion’

ATS: Do you think the American dream has changed?

JT: I definitely do think that the American dream is in the process of being redefined because it has become so inaccessible, especially to the newer generations. I think there was this path to “success” where you could go to school, you could buy a home with a regular job, and previous generations were not saddled with the level of student loan debt and the cost of living was not as high. There’s factors in play that are making the American dream obsolete or at least inaccessible to people.

We are seeing sort of this questioning of it and this shift. I think that the Great Recession was a big impetus for people starting to wonder. It feels very much like the American dream is more of an illusion for a lot of folks, and I am curious to see where it goes.

Source link

#Homeownership #isnt #money #coach #Dont #fall #artificial #pressure #buy

What a $418 million settlement on home-sale commissions may mean for you

Post By Business business news, home sales, Housing, lawsuits, Mortgages, Personal Finance, Products and Services, real estate, Real estate brokers, United States

A landmark class-action lawsuit may change the way Americans buy and sell homes.

The National Association of Realtors agreed to a $418 million settlement last week in an antitrust lawsuit where a federal jury found the organization and several large real-estate brokerages had conspired to artificially inflate agent commissions on the sale and purchase of real estate.

The NAR’s multiple listing service, or MLS, used at a local level across areas in the U.S., facilitated the compensation rates for both a buyer’s and seller’s agents.

At the time of listing a property, the home seller negotiated with the listing agent what the compensation would be for a buyer’s agent, which appeared on the MLS. However, if a seller was unaware they could negotiate, they were typically locked into paying the listed brokerage fee.

The proposed settlement would have the commission offer completely removed from the NAR’s system and home sellers will no longer be responsible for paying or offering commission for both the buyer and seller agents, said real estate attorney Claudia Cobreiro, the founder of Cobreiro Law in Coral Gables, Florida.

“The rule that has been the subject of litigation requires only that listing brokers communicate an offer of compensation,” the NAR wrote in a press release.

“Commissions remain negotiable, as they have been,” the organization wrote.

However, some of these changes may take time to materialize, experts say.

Settlement process ‘can take some time’

If a settlement agreement is accepted within a lawsuit between two people, the court generally won’t look at the settlement. Yet, in a federal class-action lawsuit, one that affects a large number of people, there will be a period for the court and interested parties to review the settlement and offer commentary and feedback on the agreement, Cobreiro said.

“That’s the process that we’re about to enter, and that process can take some time,” she said.

As proposed, the settlement would have the NAR completely remove commissions from its MLS system by July. That may be optimistic, Cobriero said.

“It would be more realistic to see this being implemented later this year,” she said.

Redfin CEO on NAR settlement: People should have a voice in how much a real estate agent gets paid

In the meantime, it’s “business as usual” for buyers and sellers, Cobreiro said. “There is nothing that agents should be doing differently currently in their ongoing transactions.”

A buyer or seller already in the market is probably not going to be affected by the settlement unless their property happens to be on the market a little longer than what’s customary, she said.

“The big gray area here is how will buyer [agent] commissions be handled moving forward,” said Cobreiro, as there is no finalized agreement yet that clearly indicates how that will be handled.

What the settlement could mean for homebuyers

The settlement agreement doesn’t say that the buyer’s agent will not be paid nor that the buyer’s agent cannot charge fees.

“The big question here is who is going to pay for those services moving forward. Will it ultimately be a buyer that will have to get the buyer’s agent’s commission together, on top of closing costs and on top of down payment?” Cobreiro said.

While commission fees are negotiable between involved parties, knowing what cards you have on the table as a homebuyer will be more important now than before. Using an agent will still be a smart way to achieve that, experts say.

“A great local agent can give you a competitive advantage,” said Amanda Pendleton, a home trends expert at Zillow Group. That’s especially true as low-priced starter homes are expected to remain in demand, she said.

Here are two things to know about how the settlement could change the process of buying a home:

1. Buyers could be responsible for their agent fees: Historically, real estate commissions typically come out of the seller’s pocket, and are split between the buyer’s and seller’s agents.

As a result of the settlement, the seller will no longer be responsible for commission fees for a buyer’s agent. So this is a new potential charge buyers need to consider in their budget. Historically, if a buyer’s agent got half of a 5% or 6% commission, that equaled thousands of dollars.

For example: The median home sale price by the end of 2023 was $417,700, according to the Federal Reserve. That would mean commissions at a 5.37% rate — the 2023 average rate, according to Lending Tree — amount to roughly $22,430, about $11,215 of which might go to the buyer’s agent.

But bypassing an agent’s services may not lead to direct savings, especially for first-time buyers, experts say. You could put yourself at risk by leaving the homebuying process entirely to the seller and their agent, said Cobreiro.

Sometimes things show up in your home inspection report that merit a credit from the seller, but if you don’t have an agent, the seller’s agent may not volunteer that, said Cobreiro.

Doing so would be a breach of their fiduciary duty to the seller, and it affects their commission if the price of the property declines, she said.

“Signing the contract is the least of it; there’s so many things that happen throughout the transaction that really require the expertise and the navigation by someone who understands the process,” she said.

2. Buyers may be required to sign a contract early on: If buyers become responsible for their agent’s commission, you’re likely to see more agents asking buyers to sign a buyer-broker agreement upfront, before the agent starts helping them find a property.

Most brokerages have a buyer agency agreement, but it’s common for real estate agents to wait to present the contract.

“They want to win the person’s business, they don’t want to scare them with having to sign any contracts,” said Steven Nicastro, a former real estate agent who writes for Clever Real Estate.

Moving the contract talks to earlier in the process is a precaution to protect buyer’s agents in the market.

“That could lead to negotiations actually taking place at the first meeting between a buyer and the buyer’s agent,” Nicastro said.

Know you can negotiate the commission rate as well as the duration of the contract, which can span from three months to a year, Cobreiro said.

Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO:

Source link

#million #settlement #homesale #commissions

The Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates just yet. Here’s what that means for your money

Post By Business Auto loans, Banks, business news, Central banking, Credit cards, Economic events, Federal Reserve System, Inflation, Interest Rates, Investment strategy, Jerome Powell, Mortgages, Personal Finance, Personal loans, Personal saving, Prices, Student loans, U.S. Economy

Economists expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting this week, even though many experts anticipate the central bank is preparing to start cutting rates in the months ahead.

In prepared remarks earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers don’t want to ease up too quickly.

Powell noted that lowering rates rapidly risks losing the battle against inflation and likely having to raise rates further, while waiting too long poses danger to economic growth.

But in the meantime, consumers won’t see much relief from sky-high borrowing costs.

In 2022 and the first half of 2023, the Fed raised rates 11 times, causing consumer borrowing rates to skyrocket while inflation remained elevated, and putting households under pressure.

With the combination of sustained inflation and higher interest rates, “many consumers are experiencing higher levels of economic stress compared to one year ago,” said Silvio Tavares, CEO of credit scoring company VantageScore.

The federal funds rate, which is set by the U.S. central bank, is the interest rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Although that’s not the rate consumers pay, the Fed’s moves still affect the borrowing and savings rates they see every day.

Even once the central bank does cut rates — which some now expect could happen in June — the pace that they trim is going to be much slower than the pace at which they hiked, according to Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

“Interest rates took the elevator going up; they are going to take the stairs coming down,” he said.

Here’s a breakdown of where consumer rates stand now and where they may be headed:

Credit cards

Since most credit cards have a variable rate, there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark. Because of the central bank’s rate hike cycle, the average credit card rate rose from 16.34% in March 2022 to nearly 21% today — an all-time high.

With most people feeling strained by higher prices, balances are higher and more cardholders are carrying debt from month to month compared with last year.

Annual percentage rates will start to come down when the Fed cuts rates, but even then they will only ease off extremely high levels. With only a few potential quarter-point cuts on deck, APRs would still be around 20% by the end of 2024, McBride said.

“If the Fed cuts rates twice by a quarter point, your credit card rate will fall by half a percent,” he said.

Mortgage rates

Fifteen- and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed, and tied to Treasury yields and the economy. But anyone shopping for a new home has lost considerable purchasing power, partly because of inflation and the Fed’s policy moves.

Rates are already significantly lower since hitting 8% in October. Now, the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is around 7%, up from 4.4% when the Fed started raising rates in March 2022 and 3.27% at the end of 2021, according to Bankrate.

“Despite the recent dip, mortgage rates remain high as the market contends with the pressure of sticky inflation,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “In this environment, there is a good possibility that rates will stay higher for a longer period of time.”

Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, and home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, are pegged to the prime rate, and those rates remain high.

“The reality of it is, a lot of borrowers are paying double-digit interest rates on those right now,” McBride said. “That is not a low cost of borrowing and that’s not going to change.”

Auto loans

Even though auto loans are fixed, payments are getting bigger because car prices have been rising along with the interest rates on new loans, resulting in less affordable monthly payments.

The average rate on a five-year new car loan is now more than 7%, up from 4% when the Fed started raising rates, according to Edmunds. However, competition between lenders and more incentives in the market have started to take some of the edge off the cost of buying a car lately, said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights.

Once the Fed cuts rates, “that gives people a little more breathing room,” Drury said. “Last year was ugly all around. At least there’s an upside this year.”

Federal student loans

Federal student loan rates are also fixed, so most borrowers aren’t immediately affected by the Fed’s moves. But undergraduate students who take out new direct federal student loans are now paying 5.50% — up from 4.99% in the 2022-23 academic year and 3.73% in 2021-22.

Private student loans tend to have a variable rate tied to the prime, Treasury bill or another rate index, which means those borrowers are already paying more in interest. How much more, however, varies with the benchmark.

For those struggling with existing debt, there are ways federal borrowers can reduce their burden, including income-based plans with $0 monthly payments and economic hardship and unemployment deferments.

Private loan borrowers have fewer options for relief — although some could consider refinancing once rates start to come down, and those with better credit may already qualify for a lower rate.

Savings rates

While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate.

As a result, top-yielding online savings account rates have made significant moves and are now paying more than 5% — above the rate of inflation, which is a rare win for anyone building up an emergency savings account, McBride said.

Since those rates have likely maxed out, this is the time to lock in certificates of deposit, especially maturities longer than one year, he advised. “There’s no incentive to hold out for something better because that’s not the way the wind is blowing.”

Currently, one-year CDs are averaging 1.73%, but top-yielding CD rates pay over 5%, as good as or better than a high-yield savings account.

Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO:

Source link

#Federal #Reserve #cut #interest #rates #Heres #means #money

Pimco’s Sonali Pier lets her ‘cautious contrarianism’ speak for itself: The bets she’s making now

Post By Business Bonds, Breaking News: Investing, Breaking News: Markets, business news, diversity, equity and inclusion, Fixed income funds, Investment strategy, Markets, Mortgages, PIMCO Multisector Bond Active Exchange-Traded Fund

Sonali Pier is a portfolio manager with Pimco

Pimco’s Sonali Pier strives for outperformance.

The youngest of three and the daughter of Indian immigrants, Pier set her sights on Wall Street after graduating from Princeton University in 2003. She began her career at JPMorgan as a credit trader, a field that doesn’t have a lot of women.

“In the ladies room, I don’t bump into a lot of people,” said Pier, who moved from New York to California in 2013 to join Pimco.

Fortunately, she’s seen a lot of changes over the years. There has not only been some progress for women entering the financial business, but the culture has also changed since the financial crisis to become more inclusive, she said. Plus, it’s an industry where there is clear evidence of performance, she added.

“There’s accountability,” she said, in a recent interview. “Therefore, the gender role starts to break down a little bit. With responsibility and accountability and a number to your name, it’s very clear what your contributions are.”

Pier has risen through the ranks since joining Pimco and is now a portfolio manager within the firm’s multi-sector credit business. The 42-year-old mother of two credits mentors for helping her along the way, as well as her husband for supporting her and moving to California sight unseen. Her father also raised her to value education and hard work, Pier said.

“He was the quintessential example of the American dream,” she said. “Being able to see his hard work and a lot of progress meant that I never thought otherwise, that hard work wouldn’t lead to progress.”

Pier’s work has not gone unnoticed. Morningstar crowned her the winner of the 2021 U.S. Morningstar Award for Investing Excellence in the Rising Talent category.

“Pier’s cautious contrarianism and rising influence at one of the industry’s premier and most internally competitive fixed-income asset-management firms stands out,” Morningstar said at the time.

Putting her investment strategy to work

Pier is the lead manager on Pimco’s Diversified Income Fund, which was among the top performers in its class — ranking in the 13th percentile on a total return basis in 2023, according to Morningstar. It has a 30-day SEC yield of 5.91%, as of Jan. 31.

“We’re really broadly canvassing the global landscape, and then looking for where there’s the best opportunities,” Pier said. “It’s getting the interest rate sensitivity from investment grade, high-quality parts of EM [emerging markets], and the equity-like sensitivity from high yield and the low-quality parts of EM.”

The fund also invests in securitized assets, with about 23% of the portfolio is allocated to the sector, as of Jan. 31.

Pimco Income Diversified Fund

While the fund has a benchmark, the Bloomberg Global Credit Hedged USD Index, it is “benchmark aware” and doesn’t “hug it,” Pier said.

Morningstar has called the fund a “standout.”

“Pimco Diversified Income’s still ample staffing, deep analytical resources, and proven approach make it a top choice for higher-yielding credit exposure,” Morningstar senior analyst Mike Mulach wrote in January.

It hasn’t always been smooth sailing. The fund has more international holdings and a more credit-risk-heavy profile than its peers, which has sometimes “knocked the portfolio off course,” like it did in 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Mulach said. Still, he likes it over the long term.

So far this year, the fund is relatively flat on a total return basis.

In addition to also leading PDIIX, Pier is also a manager on a number of other funds, including the PIMCO Multisector Bond Active ETF (PYLD), which was launched in June 2023. It currently has a 30-day SEC yield of 5.12%, as of Tuesday, and an adjusted expense ratio of 0.55%.

Multisector Bond Active Exchange-Traded Fund performance since its June 21, 2023 inception.

“It’s maximizing for yield, while looking for capital appreciation, and obviously, with the same Pimco principles of wanting to keep up on the upside, but manage that downside risk,” she said.

Where Pier is bullish

Right now, Pier prefers developed markets over emerging markets and the U.S. over Europe.

Within investment-grade corporate, she likes financials over non-financials. Credit spreads have widened in financials over the concerns about regional banks, she said.

“Maybe some of it’s warranted for the fact that they need to issue significant supply year after year, but we think that the metrics of, say, the big six … look quite resilient on a relative basis,” Pier said.

Within corporate credit, the team looks at the “full flexibility of the toolkit,” she noted. That could include derivatives and cash bonds, she added.

“Are we looking at the euro bond or the dollar bond in the same structure? The front end or the long end? Cash versus derivatives? However we can most efficiently express our view and trade that will lead to the best total return,” Pier said.

She also likes securitized assets, which she said can be a lot more resilient during a downturn. One of Pier’s preferences is the legacy non-agency mortgage-backed securities market.

“We have the data on how long they’ve been in the home, how much home equity has been built, what their mortgage rate is, what’s been their alacrity to pay, so we can see — is there any delinquency?” she said. “We have a lot of data there and a lot of comfort around that asset class.”

Agency mortgage-backed securities are also attractive and could be a good substitution for single-A rated corporate debt, she said.

About 60% of homeowners have a mortgage rate below 4%, according to a Redfin analysis of data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s National Mortgage Database.

“It’s more liquid, implicitly guaranteed by the government and it’s a pretty similar spread,” she said.

Pier finds the work exciting and encourages women to join her in the business.

“Anyone can excel who wants to really put in the work and wants to bet on themselves,” she said.

Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO:

Source link

#Pimcos #Sonali #Pier #lets #cautious #contrarianism #speak #bets #shes #making

In a Double Barrel Bull Market, AI and Housing Rule the Roost

Post By Stock a.i., artificial intelligence, charts, etfs, Fed, financial charts, homebuilders, housing sector, investing, len, Mortgages, ndx, nyad, presidential cycle, qqq, real estate, seasonality, sharpcharts, SPX, stocks, technical analysis, yield curve

The Federal Reserve is still talking tough via its dot-plot, which forecasts two more interest rate increases before the end of 2023. But the markets are not agreeing. My money, for now, is with the markets.

As I pointed out in my January 2023 video for StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five, despite constant worries from perplexed traders and dark pundit banter, a credible bottom formed. Since then, stocks have risen and now look set to move higher, likely with occasional pauses. That’s because the rally is broadening out via a rapid improvement in the market’s breadth, which is accompanying the new highs on the major indexes, as I describe later in the article.

In fact, we are currently in what I call a double barrel bull market, where two major groups are pulling the rest of the market higher. The one everyone knows is AI. The other, more quiet but equally bullish, is the housing sector.

Since lots of people have missed the rally and are now playing catch up, the upward momentum will keep going for a while. Of course, this rally can’t, shouldn’t, and won’t last forever. But if history is any guide, the rest of 2023 and much of 2024 have a built in upward bias, at least based on the phenomenon known as the Presidential Cycle; whose major premise is that the Fed raises rates in the first two years of a presidential term (which it has) and lowers them in the last two years (which seems highly likely).

AI Poster Child Makes New Highs

The poster child for the AI rally is the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), as it houses the large-cap tech stocks, which are moving higher based on expectations of large profits in the future from increasing automation and whatever AI eventually delivers.

Last week, QQQ made another series of new highs. But, by Friday, it looked at bit tired. Thus, it makes sense to expect some sort of consolidation. A move back to the 20-day moving average is not out of the question.

Lennar’s Goldilocks Quarter

For the past several years, I’ve written extensively about the homebuilder stocks and related sectors. That’s because this area of the market continues to move higher. Moreover, the more negative investors become on the sector, the higher it goes.

In fact, as I detail in this Your Daily Five video, the homebuilders are in what can only be described as a bullish Megatrend, which shows no sign of slowing.

Take, for instance, the recent action in leading homebuilder Lennar (LEN), a longstanding holding in my Joe Duarte in the Money Options portfolio, and a personal holding. Its most recent earnings report blew past analysts’ expectations on both earnings and revenues as the company again offered a positive outlook. Naturally, the shares broke out to a new high.

What makes Lennar’s earnings most interesting is the company’s management of its inventory – not too hot, not too cold. Moreover, the company’s Executive Chairman Stuart Miller noted that home buyers have come to accept the “new normal” status of interest rates, adding “demand has accelerated.” He concluded by noting: “Simply put, America needs more housing, particularly affordable workforce housing, and demand is strong when price and interest rates are affordable.”

In other words, unless interest rates climb significantly higher, the housing sector, from the point of view of homebuilders, is in better shape than many investors may think.

And here is something else to consider. Lennar is trading at a P/E of 9.46, while Nvidia (NVDA), the biggest benefactor of the AI trend, is trading at a P/E of 54.91.

Bond Yields Hold their Ground

Bond yields remained below their recent top level of 3.8% as 262,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits, an increase of 17,000 from the prior week. In addition to the stable inflation pictured in CPI and the rolling over of producer prices (PPI) released earlier in the week, bond traders breathed a sigh of relief.

Buried in the jobless claims number were over 7,000 new filings in Texas, the highest number of new claims in the U.S. for the week. Let’s put this in some perspective. Based on recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers, the Lone Star State accounted for 7% of the total U.S. GDP. Moreover, in Q4 2022, Texas accounted for 9.5% of total U.S. GDP, which means the largest economy in the U.S. is starting to feel the pinch of the Fed’s rate hikes.

On the other hand, Texas has received the largest number of new residents of any state in the post-COVID period. All of which means that for now, even in a slower economy, there is still a tight supply of housing combined with high demand. Texas is not alone, as the sunbelt remains attractive to many people looking to escape high taxes and challenging employment situations.

This confluence of data, rising initial jobless claims, slowing inflation, and a coincident slowing of the Chinese economy has led to an encouraging reversal in U.S. Treasury bond yields, which will likely benefit the homebuilders. That’s because, with lower bond yields, we’re already seeing an increase in mortgage activity, as the chart above shows.

The 3.85% yield on the U.S. Ten Year Note remains 3.85%, roughly corresponding to 7% on the average 30-year mortgage. So, if yields remain below this level, the odds favor a continuation of the steady performance of the homebuilder sector.

Incidentally, I have expanded my coverage of the housing and real estate markets in a new section for members of my Buy me a Coffee page, where you will get the inside scoop on what’s happening in these important sectors. This crucial information complements the stock picks at Joe Duarte in the Money Options.com You can start by reviewing my extensive report on the outlook for the homebuilder sector here.

NYAD Improves SPX and NDX Look to Consolidate

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) continues to improve. As long as it’s above its 50-day moving average, that’s signaling stocks are back in an uptrend.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) moved above 15,000 and is due for a pause. But in this market, any pause may be short-lived. ADI and OBV remain in bullish postures.

The S&P 500 (SPX) moved above 4400 and looks set to take a breather. As with NDX, any pause may not last. Both ADI and OBV look to be in good shape.

VIX Makes New Low

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) broke to another new low last week as call option buyers overwhelmed the market. As I noted last week, this is probably a little too much bullishness all at once, so I expect a bit of a bounce in VIX, which will likely lead to some backing and filling in the market.

When the VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures. This raises the odds of higher stock prices.

Liquidity is Increasingly Stable as Fed Holds Rate Hikes

With the Fed on hold, the market’s liquidity is starting to move sideways, which is a positive. A move below 94 on the Eurodollar Index (XED) would be very bearish, while a move above 95 will be a bullish development. Usually, a stable or rising XED is very bullish for stocks.

To get the latest information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

About the author:
Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst going back to 1987. His books include the best selling Trading Options for Dummies, a TOP Options Book for 2018, 2019, and 2020 by Benzinga.com, Trading Review.Net 2020 and Market Timing for Dummies. His latest best-selling book, The Everything Investing Guide in your 20’s & 30’s, is a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month. To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations in your mailbox every week, visit the Joe Duarte In The Money Options website.
Learn More