Tag: REITs

With the Fed on Hold, Santa Just Revved Up the Sled; Think Value

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The Santa Claus rally has left the station and is barreling down the tracks, as the Federal Reserve is on hold. 

Before I took a week off from writing this column for the Thanksgiving holiday, I wrote: “Regular readers of this column were not surprised by the rally, given the multiple alerts I posted noting the likelihood of a meaningful market bottom emerging due to the extraordinary technical picture which had developed in the bond market, and the ensuing gloom and doom in stocks as early as September 2023. And although there are no guarantees, the ongoing rally in both stocks and bonds has a great chance of continuing, due to the bullish seasonality which kicks into high gear with the traditional Thanksgiving rally.”

Here’s why we’re rallying. At least three voting members of the FOMC, including Chairman Powell, have made the following clear:

  • No easing in in the cards for now;
  • The Fed is prepared to tighten further if needed; but
  • Unless inflation data worsens, the interest rate hiking cycle is likely over.

All of which adds up to stocks moving higher in the short term, unless something bad happens that derails the bullish sentiment; think CPI, PPI, and the FOMC meeting, which are all approaching. Moreover, there is some evidence that overbought sectors of the market, such as technology, are starting to struggle, which means that some sort of sector rotation is well overdue.

So far, so good; but what’s next?

Bond Yields and Mortgages Continue Bullish Decline

The first part of the answer to the above question lies in the bond market, where rates continue to fall and seem headed lower at a rapid clip. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX) is now well below 4.5% and its 50-day moving average. Moreover, it just broke below the 4.3%-4.4% support area, and looks headed for 4%.

Even more impressive is the move down in mortgage rates (MORTGAGE), which looks set to test the 7% area and may move as low as 6.8%, the 50-day moving average for this series.

As expected, amongst the major beneficiaries of the lower interest rates have been the homebuilders, as reflected in the recent price action for the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), which broke out to a new high on the latest decline in TNX.

In addition, the long-term fundamentals of supply and demand in the housing market remain in favor of the homebuilders and related sectors. These include real estate investment trusts (REITs), which specialize in home rentals and related businesses.

You can see the bullish influence of lower interest rates on Nuveen Short Term REIT ETF (NURE) which is now testing its 200-day moving average. This ETF specializes in rental properties. A move above $30 in REZ is likely to deliver higher prices.

Sector Rotation is Likely

The REIT sector is certainly a place where value investors can find excellent ways to put money to work. But it’s not the only area that has been overlooked by the market lately, and which should benefit from a sector rotation.

Over the last few weeks in this space, I’ve been focusing on value investing, a topic in which I recently expanded in my latest Your Daily Five video, which you can catch here. That’s because growth stocks have become overbought and are due for a pause, while there are still plenty of investors and money managers who missed the October bottom and are being forced to play catchup before the year ends.

You can see this dynamic playing out by comparing the action in the S&P 500 Citigroup Pure Growth Index (SPXPG) to the trend in the S&P 500 Citigroup Pure Growth Index (SPXPV) index.

The growth index has been trading ahead of the value index for the past several weeks, but is now struggling near the 15800 chart point. Meanwhile, the value index has extended its move with greater momentum. You can appreciate the differences in the strengths of the move via the Pure Price Momentum indicators (PMO) for both where the PMO for SPXPV is much stronger.

All of this suggests that the next leg up in the market, barring something bad happening, will likely be led by value stocks.

For more on homebuilder stocks, click here.

The Unloved Energy Sector

After the amazing summer rally in the oil markets, things have cooled off dramatically. At the center of the decline in crude and the fossil fuel sector has been an oversupply of product. On the one hand, higher well efficiency in the U.S. shale sector has increased supply. On the other hand, as usual, OPEC + has not fully stuck to its highly publicized production cuts.

Yet the recent collapse in the clean energy stocks puts a different emphasis on the traditional energy sector, which is why it’s worth looking at the action in the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), where big oil and gas companies are aggregated.

What stands out the most is that even as crude oil prices (WTIC) have come well off their recent top, XLE’s decline has been a lot gentler. In fact, XLE is still trading above its 200-day moving average, which puts it technically in a bullish trend. In addition, the ETF is starting to show signs of moving away (to the upside) from a large VBP bar near $85. Above, there is more resistance from the 50-day moving average and a cluster of VBP bars all the way to $89.

Nevertheless, with components such as BP Plc (BP) trading at seven times earnings while yielding 4.81%, you have to wonder how long before value investors come a-knocking at the door of this sector.

Aside from recommending multiple big winners in the homebuilder and technology sectors, I recently recommended an energy stock which likely to move decidedly higher regardless of what the price of oil does. Join the smart money at Joe Duarte in the Money Options.com, where you can have access to this ETF and a wide variety of bullish stock picks FREE with a two week trial subscription. 

Market Breadth is Now Bullish

The NYSE Advance Decline line (NYAD) is back in bullish territory, coursing above its 50- and 200-day moving averages. So, while there is improvement, we don’t have a definitively bullish long-term signal for the market’s trend, yet. If there is a downside, it’s that the RSI indicator is nearing an overbought situation. However, at this stage of the rally, NYAD’s rate of climb may slow, but does not look as if it will fully reverse in the short term.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) looks a bit tired and needs a rest. The index has struggled to move above 16,000. Both ADI and OBV are flattening out as profit-taking increases.

The S&P 500 (SPX) remained above 4500 and could well move above 4600. This is not surprising, as many value stocks are now pushing SPX higher.

VIX is Back Below 20

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to fall, closing below 15 last week. This is bullish.

A rising VIX means traders are buying large volumes of put options. Rising put option volume from leads market makers to sell stock index futures, hedging their risk. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying. This causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures, raising the odds of higher stock prices.

To get the latest information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

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Retire Right With These 6 Billionaire Stocks That Pay Dividends Monthly

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Here are six real estate investment trusts owned by billionaires like Ken Griffin and Jim Simons that pay dividends monthly.

By John Dobosz, Forbes Staff

It’s no secret that dividends are highly prized by investors because they provide reliable income and a source of investment returns, even when stock prices are falling. Most dividend-paying stocks kick out cash dividends every three months, but a much smaller subset of a few dozen stocks pay on a monthly basis, providing a faster flow of income, or a quickened pace of compounding if investors reinvest dividends into additional shares of stock.

Most U.S.-listed stocks paying monthly dividends are either real estate investment trusts (REITs), business development companies, or oil and gas royalty trusts. These so-called “pass-through” entities do not pay tax on the corporate level because they distribute nearly all their income as dividends, which are taxed as ordinary income for shareholders who receive them, if the REITs are not held within an individual retirement account.

Like rent checks earned every month from rental properties, several of the worlds’ top billionaire investors have been scooping up monthly dividends from REITs that specialize in different niches of the property market, including shopping centers, office buildings, distribution centers and warehouses, recreational facilities, and nursing homes.

Sharply higher borrowing costs are not a friend of REITs. They increase interest cost on new debt and could adversely impact the ability to refinance existing debt, sell assets, and limit acquisition and development activities. Nonetheless, even as rising interest rates present headwinds for real estate, REITs remain ideal securities for income-oriented investors and for anyone interested in generating total return from dividends and long-term capital appreciation potential.

Regarding the importance of dividends in total return, pioneering female income investor Geraldine Weiss, longtime editor of Investment Quality Trends, was fond of saying, “We all hope for capital gains, but the only thing we can really count on is the dividend.”

The six REITs presented below are all monthly dividend-payers with annual yields ranging from 3.3% to 7.6%, making them good candidates for those looking for steady retirement income. All have payouts comfortably below their cash flow and are trading at discounted valuations relative to history. In addition, the most recent U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings show significant ownership by highly skilled billionaire investors.

Agree Realty (ADC)

Dividend Yield: 4.8%

Market Capitalization: $5.9 billion

Billionaire Ownership: Ken Fisher, Bruce Flatt, Ken Griffin, Ray Dalio, Steven Cohen, Jim Simons, Israel Englander, Clifford Asness

Bloomfield Hills, Mich.-based Agree Realty (ADC) is focused squarely on retail. It owns, acquires, develops, and manages net-lease properties rented to national retail tenants that include Walmart, Dollar General, Tractor Supply, Best Buy, Dollar Tree, and Kroger. Revenue is on the rise, expected to grow 20% this year to $517.2 million, with funds from operations up 2% to $3.95 per share. REITs are traditionally valued as a multiple of funds from operations (FFO), which differ from earnings in that they do not include the impact of interest, taxes, depreciation, or gains/losses on the sale of properties. Agree Realty trades at 15.1 times expected FFO, which is a 21% discount to its five-year average price/FFO ratio of 19.2. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.43, Agree is not stressed financially.

With ADC shares down 18% from their February high, it’s a clear sign of bullishness that company insiders are buying the stock hand-over-fist. Five different officers and directors, including the chief financial officer, purchased a total of $4.56 million worth of stock in the month of August. Executive Chairman Richard Agree personally ponied up $1.9 million to buy 30,000 shares. Billionaire investors have also shown a strong appetite for Agree. Israel Englander’s Millennium Management hedge fund reported new buys in the first and second quarters of 2023 and now owns 1.02 million shares of ADC, representing 1.1% of outstanding shares.

Phillips Edison & Co. (PECO)

Dividend Yield: 3.3%

Market Capitalization: $4.0 billion

Billionaire Ownership: Jim Simons, Clifford Asness, Ken Griffin, Ken Fisher

Phillips Edison & Co. (PECO), a midcap REIT out of Cincinnati, Ohio, specializes in ownership of shopping centers anchored by grocery stores. This REIT was founded in 1991 by Jeffrey Edison and Michael Phillips. Mr. Edison is the current chairman and chief executive officer of Phillips Edison, which went public in July 2021, and he owns 335,000 of the 117.3 million shares outstanding.

PECO owns and operates a $6.2 billion national portfolio of 291 grocery-anchored shopping centers clustered in Florida, the Eastern Seaboard, the Midwest, and along the Pacific coast. Top tenants as a percentage of total revenue are Kroger (6.2%), Publix (5.8%), Albertsons (4.1%), Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. (3.9%), and Walmart (2%). Revenue this year is expected to grow 6.6% to $597.5 million, with funds from operations up 6% to $2.28 per share.

Over the past 12 months, Phillips Edison generated free cash flow of $1.29 per share, which is comfortably above $1.12 per share in annual dividends, which are paid at a rate of $0.0933 per month, good for a dividend yield of 3.3% at current prices. Dividend growth is also encouraging. Since its IPO two years ago, PECO has hiked its monthly payout at a 4.8% annual rate.

The appealing fundamentals of PECO are nicely complemented by insider buying and billionaire ownership. On May 16, board member Leslie Chao laid out $292,000 to acquire 10,000 shares of PECO. Billionaire Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies reports ownership of 187,000 shares, Clifford Asness of AQR Capital holds 14,000 shares, and Ken Griffin’s Citadel reports a stake of 7,000 shares. Ken Fisher owns 9,000 shares.

Realty Income (O)

Dividend Yield: 5.4%

Market Capitalization: $40.4 billion

Billionaire Ownership: Ken Griffin, Ray Dalio, Jim Simons, Israel Englander, Clifford Asness

With a market capitalization north of $40 billion, San Diego, Calif.-based Realty Income (O) is the biggest name in this group of monthly dividend payers. It owns 13,100 retail, industrial, and agricultural properties leased to 1,300 tenants in 85 separate industries, allowing Realty Income to generate stable cash flow and deliver consistent monthly dividends. The current property portfolio includes high-quality real estate in all 50 states, as well as Puerto Rico, the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, and Ireland.

Realty Income has paid steadily rising dividends over its entire 54-year operating history, and dividend growth has outpaced inflation. Realty Income has hiked its dividend 5.3% annually over the past 10 years, and 4.7% annually since its initial public offering in 1994. Dividends of $3.07 per year are comfortably supported by $4.29 in free cash flow per share and provide investors with a current dividend yield of 5.4%.

Revenue has grown 21.5% annually over the past 10 years and is seen rising 18% to $3.9 billion in 2023. Funds from operations are expected to increase 2% to $4.12 per share. At 13.5 times FFO, Realty Income trades 25% below its five-year average price/FFO multiple of 18.1. Debt is manageable at 63% of equity.

The value of Realty Income was compelling enough for Israel Englander’s Millennium Management to establish a new position of 1.28 million shares at a cost of $60.92 per share in the second quarter of 2023—a cost basis 7% above the current stock price just below $57 per share. Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies bought 378,000 shares during the same period at similar prices. With smaller stakes, Clifford Asness of AQR owns 97,000 shares, and Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater holds 90,000 shares.

STAG Industrial (STAG)

Dividend Yield: 4.2%

Market Capitalization: $6.3 billion

Billionaire Ownership: Israel Englander, Bruce Flatt, Ken Griffin, Steven Cohen, Clifford Asness

Boston-based STAG Industrial (STAG) was founded in 2010 and specializes in owning and managing huge distribution centers and warehouses along interstate highways. STAG owns 561 buildings in 41 states with approximately 111.6. million rentable square feet. Accounting for 2.8% of $654.4 million in 2022 revenue, Amazon.com is the company’s largest tenant. Other major clients include American Tire Distributors, Hachette Book Group, Tempur Sealy, DHL, FedEx, Penguin Random House, and Ford Motor Company.

Analysts who follow STAG expect this year’s revenue to rise 6.4% to $696.5 million, and FFO to grow 2.3% to $2.26 per share. At 14.9 times current year’s FFO, STAG trades 9.3% below its five-year average price-to-FFO ratio of 16.0. Funds from operations have grown at an 18.8% compound annual rate over the past five years, and free cash flow has increased 18.9% annually over the same stretch of time.

Billionaires are buyers. Israel Englander’s Millennium Management has been the most bullish, taking down 1.1 million shares in the second quarter and now owns 0.62% of STAG’s outstanding shares. Clifford Asness owns 322,000 shares, Ken Fisher holds 303,000 shares, and Ken Griffin’s Citadel owns 90,000 shares. Bruce Flatt’s Brookfield doubled its stake in the second quarter and now owns 48,000 shares.

EPR Properties (EPR)

Dividend Yield: 7.6%

Market Capitalization: $3.3 billion

Billionaire Ownership: Ken Griffin, Jim Simons, Israel Englander, Clifford Asness

Founded in 1997, Kansas City, Mo.-based EPR Properties (EPR) owns a $5.4 billion portfolio of specialty properties concentrated in entertainment, education, and recreation. Properties include 172 movie theaters, 67 charter schools, 41 early childhood centers, 25 golf entertainment complexes, 11 ski parks, and five water parks. EPR also owns one gaming property, Resorts World Catskills casino and resort in Sullivan County, N.Y. Largest tenants as a percentage of 2022 revenue are AMC Theatres (13.8%), Topgolf (13.7%), Regal Entertainment (12.7%), Cinemark (6.1%), and Vail Resorts (5.1%).

EPR’s revenue this year compared to 2022 is expected to jump 18.6% to $586.3 million, and FFO is expected to grow 7.7% to $5.05 per share. Priced at 8.7 times expected 2023 FFO, EPR trades 26.3% lower than itis five-year average price/FFO ratio of 11.8. It also trades 26.5% below its five-year average enterprise value-to-Ebitda ratio of 17.0.

EPR suspended its dividend in July 2020 after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic but reinstated it one year later in July 2021, and the monthly payout has grown 4.9% annually over the past two years. Yielding 7.6%, EPR trades ex-dividend on August 30 for its next monthly payout of $0.275 per share.

Insiders are nibbling at the stock. On June 13, company director Caixia Ziegler bought 500 shares at $45.14 apiece. Among billionaire investors, Israel Englander and Ken Griffin both reduced their stakes in the second quarter but still own 675,000 and 477,000 shares, respectively. Jim Simons’ Renaissance Technologies holds 344,000 shares, and Clifford Asness of AQR reports owning 322,000 shares.

LTC Properties (LTC)

Dividend Yield: 7.2%

Market Capitalization: $1.3 billion

Billionaire Ownership: Ken Griffin, Jim Simons, Clifford Asness

Westlake Village, Calif.-based LTC Properties (LTC) invests in senior housing and health care properties, primarily through sale-leaseback transactions, mortgage financing, and structured finance deals that include mezzanine lending. Its portfolio includes 213 properties in 29 states with 29 operating partners. Based on gross real estate investments, the portfolio is composed of approximately 50% senior housing and 50% skilled nursing facilities. Based on each tenant’s share of 2022 revenue of $128.2 million, LTC’s largest tenants were Prestige Healthcare (14%), ALG Senior (10.4%), Brookdale Senior Living (8.9%), and Anthem Memory Care (6.2%).

LTC has been paying dividends since its inception in October 1992, and the payout has grown 2.4% annually over the past decade. Even though growth is not overwhelming, LTC’s dividends, currently paid at the rate of $0.19 per month, give the REIT a meaty yield of 7.2%. Annual dividends of $2.28 per share are covered by $2.54 in free cash flow per share over the past 12 months. Revenue this year is expected to creep higher by 1% to $129.1 million, and funds from operations are seen rising 2.7% to $2.63 per share. At 11.9 times current-year FFO, LTC trades 14.4% below its five-year average price/FFO ratio of 13.9.

Clifford Asness’ AQR hedge fund boosted its LTC holdings by 89% to 34,000 shares in the second quarter of 2023, while Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies acquired 21,000 shares at $35.47 per share in the second quarter, and now owns 68,000 shares of LTC. Ken Griffin’s Citadel reports a small stake of 5,000 shares.

John Dobosz is a senior editor and editor of Forbes Billionaire Investor newsletter.

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Bonds Toy with Secular Bear Market — Was That the Top in Housing Stocks? Maybe Yes, Maybe No.

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The market’s worsening breadth and the lack of a robust bounce on 8/18/23, even as bond yields reversed course after their runaway freight train climb during the week, is worrisome.

On the other hand, the market’s sentiment is souring rapidly, and oversold gauges are closing in on traditional bounce territory. Consider this:

  • CBOE Put/Call Ratio hit 1.25 on 8/16 – the highest reading in eight months;
  • The CNN Greed Fear Index hit 46 (neutral) on 8/18/23 – a month ago it was at 83 (extreme greed). Readings below 40 signal excessive greed in the market;
  • RSI for the S&P 500 (SPX) is at 34, just shy of the critical 30 oversold reading; and 
  • The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see below) closed outside its lower Bollinger Band for the fourth straight day – this is as oversold as it gets.

Thus, with rising pessimism and with the market nearing an oversold level, the key to what happens next depends on what type of bounce we see in the next few days. If there is no real strength in the bounce, we may see a renewal of the downtrend.

Bonds Test Secular Bear Market Boundaries

The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX) recently tested the 4.30% yield area, its highest point since late 2022, before turning lower. If TNX breaches this key chart point, bonds may have entered a secular bear market. That won’t be good for stocks.

The long-term chart for TNX shows that yields crossed a meaningful high point (3.25%) area in 2019 before re-entering a bullish phase, due to the pandemic raising the specter of a global depression.

Of course, history has shown that no such thing happened as global central banks hit the digital printing presses.

The U.S. recovered. The jury is still out for Europe. China remained closed too long. Foreign companies moved. Since China’s economy depends on foreign capital to fuel its manufacturing base, the exit of foreign companies resulted in a capital vacuum which is now affecting the Chinese property sector, as seen in the recent bankruptcy of the Evergrande Real Estate conglomerate, China’s largest developer.

Normally, this would be bullish news for U.S. Treasuries. Is this time different?

So Why are Bond Yields Rising?

The pandemic reversed globalization, as lockdowns had unintended consequences. Consider the following:

  • Companies moved out of China, taking capital out of the Chinese economy;
  • Construction of manufacturing plants and warehouses in the U.S. has increased; while
  • Supply chains have not fully adjusted.

New factories built in the U.S. are technology-focused: semiconductors, solar power technology, and electric car parts and batteries. A few factories make building materials, household appliances, furniture, cell phones, or internal combustion engine automobiles.

Ignored are food processing, medical product manufacturing, and other important areas. Normally, these items come from China. But China’s economy is slowing, and capital flight is making operations there difficult for both domestic and foreign companies, creating shortages of everyday products and raising prices. 

In the U.S., the skilled labor pool has shrunk. There aren’t enough people farming, making furniture, or processing meat. Those with those skills cost more. Meanwhile, companies looking to build factories in the U.S. are having trouble finding enough skilled construction workers, adding to rising costs and fueling inflation.

The U.S. government continues to pump money into the clean energy economy, flooding the economy with money just as the Fed is trying to tighten conditions. Too many dollars chasing too few goods – the most basic definition of inflation. Capital allocation is unbalanced and inefficient, compounding the problem. Thus, bond traders fear a squeeze in raw materials and skilled labor costs, and the related decreased production of necessary household goods.

In other words, the post-pandemic period is turning into one where inflation is becoming structural. If TNX moves above 4.3%, this notion will be all but confirmed.

Smart Money Update: Was that the Top in Housing Stocks?

We may have seen the top in the housing stocks, although the jury is still out on this. I’ve been bullish on homebuilders for quite a long time, but, unless something improves quickly, the best days for this group may be behind us.

The SPDR S&P Homebuilder crashed and burned on 8/17/23, slicing through its 50-day moving average like butter. Moreover, there was no real bounce to speak of on the next day, which is what’s usually happened in the past twelve months after heavy bouts of selling. Accumulation/Distribution (ADI) and On Balance Volume (OBV) both rolled over aggressively, both negative signs suggesting money is moving out in a hurry.

The key is if and how the sector bounces back. Still, the supply shortages in the housing market will resurface as the kindling required to reignite a rally in XHB. Meanwhile, money is decidedly finding a home in the energy sector, specifically in oil and oil service stocks (OIH).

Patient investors may eventually benefit from the uranium market, as nuclear power continues to slowly become a viable alternative in the search for clean energy sources in the face of the cuts in oil and natural gas production, as displayed in the accelerating downward path of the weekly oil rig count. There are now 136 fewer active rigs in the U.S. compared to the same period in 2022.

A sector, which is bullishly being ignored by many traders, is uranium. But the shares of the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) are under steady accumulation. I recently discussed how to spot the smart money’s footprints and how to turn them into profits. URA, in which I own shares, is featured in the video. You can get the full details here.

Do you own homebuilder stocks? What should you do with your energy holdings? Get answers at Joe Duarte in the Money Options.com. You can have a look at my latest recommendations FREE with a two-week trial subscription. And for an in-depth review of the current situation in the oil market, homebuilders and REITS, click here.

Will NYAD Finally Bounce? NDX and SPX Approach Oversold Levels

Given the drubbing stocks took last week and the oversold reading on RSI for the New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line, you’d think we’d get a bigger bounce when bond yields turned lower on Friday. No such thing happened. That’s worrisome.

The long term trend for stocks remains up, but the short- and intermediate-term trends are in question, as NYAD remained below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages and may still be headed for a test of its 50-day, and perhaps the 200-day, moving average.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) is very oversold after breaking below its 50-day moving average the 15,000 level. Accumulation/Distribution (ADI) and On Balance Volume (OBV), remain weak, as short sellers are active and sellers are overtaking buyers. Let’s see what type of bounce we get.

The S&P 500 (SPX) looks just as bad, remaining below 4500, its 20-day and its 50-day moving averages. Both ADI and OBV are negative. Support is now around the 4300 area.

VIX Remains Below 20

VIX rolled over at the end of last week without taking out the 20 level. This is good news. A move above 20 would be very negative as it would signal that the big money is finally throwing in the towel on the uptrend. 

When the VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures. This raises the odds of higher stock prices.

Liquidity Remains Stable

Liquidity is stable, but may not remain so for long if the current fall in stock prices accelerates. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which recently replaced the Eurodollar Index (XED) but is an approximate sign of the market’s liquidity, just broke to a new high in response to the Fed’s move. A move below 5.0 would be more bullish. A move above 5.5% would signal that monetary conditions are tightening beyond the Fed’s intentions. That would be very bearish.

To get the latest information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

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#Bonds #Toy #Secular #Bear #Market #Top #Housing #Stocks

The Smart Money Changes Gears; As Tech Weakens, New Leaders Appear

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The Fed is flying trial balloons about the end of the interest rate hike cycle, but the technology sector is ignoring them as the smart money move to energy continues.

Last week, Philadelphia Fed Governor Patrick Harker, in a Philadelphia speech, suggested the central banks should pause their rate hikes. Moreover, even though the CPI inflation numbers were relatively tame, markets seemed to focus on the more negative details inside the report, such as persistently high rents and car insurance prices.

Interestingly, producer prices (PPI) rose as well, but much of the climb was due to an increase in fees by money managers – hardly a widespread expense as compared to gasoline and food. Meanwhile, consumer confidence is flat and inflation expectations are improving.

Still, money flows in bonds and stocks suggest otherwise. That’s not a good turn of events, if not reversed, especially when the Fed is trying to gauge the market’s response to a potential extended pause on its rate hikes.

As Tech Weakens, New Leaders Appear

Last week in this space, I noted “short sellers are starting to smell blood in the water in the tech sector.” This week, the evidence piled up further as the bloom is wearing off the AI rose, at least for now. You can see that sellers have gained the upper hand as the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) has broken below its 50-day moving average, as both Accumulation/Distribution (ADI, increasing short sales) and On Balance Volume (OBV, buyers turning into sellers) have also rolled lower.

But QQQ is not alone. A more focused picture of the selling in AI and robotics-related stocks can be seen in the shares of the ROBO Global Robotics and Automation ETF (ROBO), which has fallen back to what may be long-term support near $54. If ROBO fails to hold in this general area, which features two very large Volume-by-Price bars (VBP) and the 200-day moving average as key markers, the decline will likely accelerate.

A stark example of how rising costs are impacting emerging technology companies was the collapse of solar tech company Maxeon Solar Technologies (MAXN), whose shares cratered after the company missed its earnings estimates and lowered forward guidance, citing “falling demand” for its products while partially blaming the situation on higher interest rates.

Meanwhile, shares of energy stocks, such as refiner Valero Energy (VLO), continue to power higher as the fuel supply and demand balance is steadily tipping toward the energy patch. This view is supported by the steady downward pace in the weekly oil rig count. There are now 125 fewer active rigs in the U.S. compared to the same period in 2022.

VLO is emerging above a stout resistance shelf, marked by a large cluster of Volume-by-Price (VBP) bars extending back to the $107 area. A move above $140 would likely lead to higher prices in a hurry. I recently discussed how to spot the smart money’s footprints and how to turn them into profits; you can check out the video here.

Over the last few weeks, I’ve asked whether it’s time to sell the tech rally. What should you do with your energy holdings? And what about the homebuilder stocks and the REITs? The answers are in the model portfolios at Joe Duarte in the Money Options.com, updated weekly, and via Flash Alerts as needed. You can have a look at all of them and my latest recommendations on what to do with each individual pick FREE with a two week trial subscription. And, for an in-depth review of the current situation in the oil market, homebuilders and REITS, click here.

Bonds, Oil, and Stealth Inflation

The lack of enthusiasm from bond traders about the CPI numbers, quirky PPI numbers and a Fed governor suggesting the central bank may stop raising rates soon suggests there is more going on than meets the eye. The answer may be future inflation related to limited supplies of products and services, which are not likely to increase anytime soon, along with the unknowns about the future of global energy prices.

The U.S. Ten-Year Note yield (TNX) briefly dipped below 4% on the CPI news. But the rally didn’t last. And by week’s end, yields were once again moving toward the higher end of the trading range, which has been in place since October 2022.

More concerning is the lack of interest from bond traders regarding deflationary news from China a day earlier, which suggests the bond market is not a believer in the notion that inflation is slowing to the point where the Fed can stop raising rates.

In the present, you can blame their disbelief on the oil market, where volatile supply data and demand news, combined with ongoing reports that U.S. oil production is being curtailed, is moving prices higher.

Moreover, as evidenced by the action in MAXN, above, it’s becoming evident that the ongoing transfer from traditional energy to renewable energy will be more expensive than initially thought. All of which suggests that inflation is becoming stealthily embedded into the system. When you factor in the expected rise in U.S. Treasury bond issuance by the U.S. Treasury and the increasing budget deficits, the indifference from bond traders makes sense.

In other words, even though CPI may have slowed its gains for now, the bottoming of PPI may be a prelude to the near future. Thus, forward-looking bond traders may be considering future shortages of key minerals, the energy to fuel the transition to clean energy, and tight labor.

Specifically, along with poor demand for solar technology, the bond market may be quietly worried about the ongoing problems in the wind energy industry, where costs are reportedly out of control, to the tune of having climbed 20-40% since February 2022. Meanwhile, reports of major technical problems with turbines continue to plague the industry, while governments are beginning to evaluate how much more money they’re willing to put into subsidies.

NYAD Struggles, Major Indexes Extend Losses

The long-term trend for stocks remains up, but the short term is weakening further. The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD), has broken below its 20-day moving average and may be headed for a test of its 50-day, and perhaps the 200-day, moving averages.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) has broken below its 50-day moving average and looks headed for a test of the 15,000 level. Accumulation/Distribution (ADI) and On Balance Volume (OBV), remain weak, as short sellers are active and sellers are overtaking buyers.

The S&P 500 (SPX) remained below 4500, and its 20-day moving average, as it approaches a test of its 50-day moving average. Both ADI and OBV are nowhere near uptrends. Support is now around the 4400 area.

VIX Struggles at 20

I’ve been expecting a move higher in VIX, and it seems to have arrived as the index finally moved above the key 15 resistance level. The good news is that the index has yet to break above 20. A move above 20 would be very negative, as it would signal that the big money is finally throwing in the towel on the uptrend.

When the VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures. This raises the odds of higher stock prices.

Liquidity Remains Stable

Liquidity is stable, but may not remain so for long if the current fall in stock prices accelerates. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which recently replaced the Eurodollar Index (XED), but is an approximate sign of the market’s liquidity, just broke to a new high in response to the Fed’s move. A move below 5.0 would be more bullish. A move above 5.5% would signal that monetary conditions are tightening beyond the Fed’s intentions. That would be very bearish.

To get the latest information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

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Bullish Tidings: Breadth Rallies, Oil Service Makes its Move, Bonds Survive Yield Scare

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Three weeks before the Fed’s next meeting, investors who have missed the AI/tech rally have thrown caution to the wind.

That urgency to catch up has led to an encouraging improvement in the market’s breadth and a marginal new high in the S&P 500 index ($SPX). The combination is likely setting the market up for what could be an impressive upward thrust. See below for full details.

And if June is any sign of what July may be, the bulls will rule the roost. Here are some grounding facts:

  • The S&P 500 index has returned an average of 3.3% in July from 2012–2022.
  • SPX rallied 9% in July 2022.

Of course, there are no guarantees that history will repeat itself. But it pays to be always ready. So, which sectors are likely to benefit? I have some thoughts just below.

Bond Yields Survive Yield Scare

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Fed joined the other global central banks that have raised interest rates in the last few weeks. However, from a trading standpoint, the action in bonds is more important, as bond yields have largely disagreed with the Fed’s perception of the economy since late 2022.

What I mean, of course, is that even as the Fed raised interest rates after October 2022, bond yields have fallen since then, setting up a divergence.

Certainly, there has been some volatility in yields. For example, the 10-Year US Treasury Yield Index ($TNX) bounced higher on June 29, 2023, as a surprising upward revision of US GDP to the 2% growth rate raised the odds of a rate hike at the upcoming FMOC meeting in mid-July. Yet, the flattening out of the Fed’s favorite indicator, the PCE inflation gauge on June 20, 2023, calmed things down.

That leaves the resistance band between 3.6–3.85% as the area to monitor. If TNX rises above 3.85%, we may see a move toward 4%, which would be very negative for stocks, especially the interest rate-sensitive homebuilders and real estate investment trusts (REITs).

The Fine Print in Housing Stats: Supply, Supply, Supply

As would be expected, as TNX flirted with 3.85%, there was a pullback in the homebuilder stocks. But as we’ve learned over the recent past, the correlation between the direction of bond yields and the action in the homebuilder stocks is nearly 100%. As a result, when bond yields, as I described above, hit resistance at 3.85% and turned lower, the homebuilder stocks regained their upward trend.  

Overall, the housing sector continues to deliver mixed news. For example:

  • New home sales recently rose—bullish for homebuilders.
  • Existing home sales are flattening out—neutral for brokers.
  • Pending home sales fell—not what you may be thinking.

The quiet part is all three stats above have two things in common—low supply and steady-to-rising demand. So new home sales are rising because builders are building enough of them to sell to enough people who are looking for housing. Existing home sales are flat because no one wants to sell a house with a 3% mortgage and buy a new one with a 6% mortgage. And, of course, if no one wants to sell their house, then you get a fall in pending home sales.

The bottom line remains unchanged. Low supply of steady demand favors the homebuilders.

Overall pending home sales fell 2.7% month to month. And if you’re wondering how each U.S. region fared in the pending home sales data here you go:

  • The Northeast delivered a 12.9% increase.
  • The South registered a 4.4% decrease.
  • The Midwest dropped by 5.3%.
  • The West’s sales dropped by 6.1% (a 62% decrease since 2001).

Moreover, the National Association of Realtors noted that there are still three pending offers per sale.

Mortgage rates ticked up last week, along with bond yields. Homebuilder stocks pulled back slightly before recovering. Several homebuilders will be reporting earnings in July, near the date of the Fed’s next meeting.

For an in-depth look at the news and trends in the housing and real estate market, check out my new publication, Joe Duarte’s Real Estate Weekly, here.  You’ll find crucial and detailed real estate market updates in an easy-to-follow and highly accessible format. This crucial information complements the stock picks at Joe Duarte in the Money Options.com. For more details on how to trade the bullish housing megatrend, check out my latest video here.

Oil Service Makes its Move

The bullish action in stocks on June 30 might be at least partially related to window dressing. That’s where portfolio managers who missed the rally play catch up to show their clients that they own stocks in groups that are rising. That means that the bullish action may or may not remain in some of the more extended market sectors, such as AI.

On the other hand, some portfolio managers use the cover of window dressing as a stealthy way to put money to work in sectors that offer value. As a result, while everyone is looking at the hot sectors, such as AI, it pays to look at sectors that have underperformed in the first half.

One of them is oil service. As the price chart illustrates, the Philadelphia Oil Service Index (OSX) shows some bullish characteristics. Note the broaching of the 200-day moving average after the recent double bottom it carved out over the last three months.

Moreover, its accompanying ETF, the Van Eck Vectors Oil Service ETF (OIH), looks even better. You can see that OIH has crossed above its 200-day moving average, marking what looks to be the start of a bullish reversal.

In addition, you can see that the Accumulation Distribution Line has begun to move higher as the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator has bottomed out. Together, these two indicators confirm the emerging price trend in OIH as money moves in.

I have several oil service stocks in my Joe Duarte in the Money Options portfolios which are worth considering. One of them just broke out to a new high. You can check it out with a FREE trial to my service here.

NYAD Recovers and Gathers Upside Momentum

In a bullish development, the New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line ($NYAD) turned on a dime last week and moved decidedly higher, breaking above short-term resistance. This comes after a short-lived dip below the 50-day moving average.

The Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX) also turned around, finding support at its 20-day moving average. ADI and OBV have turned short-term negative.

The S&P 500 made a new high since the October bottom in stocks. As with NDX, SPX found support at its 20-day moving average. This is a bullish development. Both ADI and OBV stabilized.

VIX Is Likely to Bounce

After its recent new lows, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) is poised to rise, as July often marks a bottom. On the other hand, VIX is at such a low level that it could take a while before the negative effects of a rising VIX affect the bullish action in stocks.

When the VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures. This raises the odds of higher stock prices.

To get the latest information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

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#Bullish #Tidings #Breadth #Rallies #Oil #Service #Move #Bonds #Survive #Yield #Scare

Trade What You See; Profits are Waiting Beyond the Daily Grind

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As the mainstream focuses on negative developments, such as the Fed’s latest utterings and the implosion of subsets of the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, there seems to be a stealthy migration of money into other select areas of the market. This is a great example of why focusing on the markets instead of the external noise is the best way to trade.

Trade What You See

There’s an old saying among wise veteran traders: “trade what you see.” And the current market is a perfect place in which this adage holds up.

As investors await the Fed’s nearly certain rate increase on May 3rd, the daily options market-related gyrations in stocks continue to develop. Meanwhile, the four-prong post-COVID pandemic megatrend continues to evolve, as I discuss in detail in my latest Your Daily Five video. Said megatrend is composed of:

  • The Great Migration – population shifts to suburbs, rural areas, and the sunbelt; 
  • The CRE Implosion from an oversupply of office space;
  • Bullish Supply Dynamics for Homebuilders; and
  • The Evolving End of Globalization.

As a result, the only solution is to be contrarian, to trade what you see, and to focus on investments from a longer-term viewpoint. Stated plainly, if a stock is not crashing and the underlying business is performing reasonably well, then it’s a keeper until proven otherwise.

Even better, as I detail below, detecting trend changes early is very helpful.

The Evolution of the Commercial Real Estate Crash

There is more nuance than what meets the mainstream eye going on in the beleaguered CRE market. 

For example, the big news of the week was Vornado’s (NYSE: VNO) dividend cut, which sent the shares lower as investors braced for worse news, such as the possibility of loan defaults. If that happens, few would be surprised.

The price chart’s Accumulation Distribution (ADI) shows that short sellers have had a field day with the shares over the past twelve months, especially during the last quarter. On Balance Volume (OBV) also indicates more sellers than buyers have been the norm of late.

But things may be changing in other areas of the real estate business. And a closer look at VNO’s shares shows that the one day mini-crash in the stock on 4/27/23 was followed by a bounce which, of course, was short-covering.

As I described in my recent Your Daily Five video, the evolution of the post-pandemic megatrend is evolving into a new and quite investable phase. That’s because the market is slowly adapting to its circumstances as businesses adjust to the changing landscape. And as one section of the real estate investment trust (REIT) world is suffering, other areas are starting to show signs of life.

To be specific, REITs, which are heavily laden with office building properties that are having trouble paying their bills. Loan defaults are becoming quite common; foreclosures and bankruptcies are likely to rise. On the other hand, those REITs who derive their income from residential properties are faring better. The result is an unexpected improvement in the price chart for the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR).

The price chart for IYR shows that the entire sector still has plenty of work to do. But amazingly, REITs may have bottomed out. All of which suggests that the stock market may be starting to quietly price in a pause in the Fed’s interest-raising cycle after the almost-certain rate increase, which is expected on May 3.

IYR’s Accumulation/Distribution indicator (ADI) suggests that short sellers may have lost their enthusiasm for the sector. On the other hand, On Balance Volume (OBV) is still bottoming out, which suggests that buyers have not overwhelmed sellers altogether.

Still, the ETF is trading tightly near the $84 area, where there is a large Volume by Price bar (VBP). If the price can move above this key price point, we are likely to see a challenge of the 200-day moving average. 

A move above that would be bullish. I have just added two long REIT plays to my portfolio. Get the details with a free trial to my service here.

Bond Yields Turn Lower at 3.5%. Home Buyers Play Cat and Mouse with Mortgage Rates.

The bond market continues to price in a slowing of the economy, while homebuyers continue to play a nifty game of cat and mouse as they try to time the mortgage market. Homebuilder stocks continue to move higher.

Over the last few weeks, the Fed hinted that another rate increase was coming at its May 2-3 FOMC meeting. Initially, this bearish talk pushed the U.S. Ten Year Note (TNX) despite above the 3.5% yield area. This resulted in a rise of the 30-year mortgage to 6.4%, where it has remained for the last couple of weeks.

This upside reversal delivered a slowing in existing home sales. But the reversal in bond yields on the week ended on 4/28 is likely to lead to yet another reversal in mortgage rates. Moreover, savvy potential homebuyers are likely calling their bankers as I write in order to lock in rates before the official numbers are released next week.

Note the close relationship between TNX, mortgage rates, and the steady uptrend in the homebuilder sector (SPHB). Specifically, take a look at the rally in SPHB, which was spawned when the average mortgage rate topped out in late 2022 above 7%. The subsequent decline in mortgages has been a boon for homebuilders.

For an in-depth comprehensive outlook on the homebuilder sector, click here.

NYAD Seems to Have Nine-Lives. NDX Breaks Out.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) once again survived a potential breakdown as it continues to hug its 50-day moving average, while remaining well above its long-term dividing line between bull and bear trends, the 200-day moving average. It would be nice to see breadth improve, but the fact that it has not broken down altogether is very encouraging.

The S&P 500 (SPX) continues to hold between 4100 – 4200, but is getting closer to what could be a major breakout if it can get above the 4200 area. On Balance Volume (OBV) and Accumulation Distribution (ADI) remain very constructive for SPX.

For its part, the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closed above 13,200 on 4/29/23, scoring a nifty breakout with OBV starting to turn up a bit more decisively. If NDX can stay above 13,200, the odds of a significant move higher are well above-average.

These are bullish developments, which suggests money is moving into technology stocks. When tech stocks rally, they often give the whole market a boost.

VIX Makes New Lows

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) again broke to a new low and is now well below 20, a sign that the bears are throwing in the towel. This remains bullish despite the intraday volatility in the options market.

When VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures in order to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures. This raises the odds of higher stock prices.

Liquidity is Stable. Upcoming Rate Hike Could Crimp.

The market’s liquidity retreated as the Eurodollar Index (XED) remains a question mark, even though, for now, it remains stable, yet below 94.75 on Fed hike expectations. A move above 95 will be a bullish development. Usually, a stable or rising XED is very bullish for stocks. On the other hand, in the current environment, it’s more of a sign that fear is rising and investors are raising cash.

To get the latest up-to-date information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

Joe Duarte

About the author:
Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst going back to 1987. His books include the best selling Trading Options for Dummies, a TOP Options Book for 2018, 2019, and 2020 by Benzinga.com, Trading Review.Net 2020 and Market Timing for Dummies. His latest best-selling book, The Everything Investing Guide in your 20’s & 30’s, is a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month. To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations in your mailbox every week, visit the Joe Duarte In The Money Options website.
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