Tag: mortgage

Why the Santa Rally Stumbled; QQQ Sets Up for Big Move, Be Careful

Post By Stock , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Next week could make or break the Santa rally.

The Fed meets on 12/12 and 13, and CPI and PPI are due out simultaneously. As a result, it wouldn’t a bad idea to review portfolios carefully, to consider taking some profits and to game out some potential ways to hedge. Still, the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) is forecasting a large, and potentially bullish move soon. Given the bullish seasonal trends, further upside is not out of the question.

This is especially notable given the recent liquidity scare and serendipitous recovery in the financial system, which I describe directly below. Let’s start by looking at the price chart for the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).

Cutting to the chase, the Bollinger Bands are tightening around QQQ’s prices. That’s a sign, as I detailed here, that a big move is coming. Moreover, money flows, as indicated by Accumulation/Distribution (ADI) and On Balance Volume (OBV) are perking up. A move in QQQ above $394 would likely trigger a whole lot of algo trading programs queued up to trade breakouts.

Why the Santa Rally Stumbled Last Week

Stock traders who have profited from the October 2023 bottom should be thanking the bond market for their good fortune, which means that any major reversal in bond yields will likely be followed by what could be a major selloff in stocks. On the other hand, as can only happen in the strange world known as Wall Street, the recent rally in bonds nearly pulled the plug on the entire financial system on December 1.

In fact, the recent hiccup in the Santa Claus rally, from which the market has largely recovered, may have resulted from a reduction in the financial system’s liquidity brought about by, wait for it, the rally in bonds. According to reports, the speed with which the bond rally developed put a squeeze on Wall Street’s money lending machine (the repo market), whose money powder keg was squeezed by the Fed’s QT maneuvers, which led to the huge backup in bond yields.

The whole thing is so bizarre that it took me several reviews of multiple sources to put it together. But here is the simplified version. The Fed’s “higher for longer” mantra and its QT (removal of liquidity from the system), via the sale of treasury bonds, drained Wall Street’s piggy bank for borrowed money, leaving it with less funds than would normally be required further finance the rally in stocks and bonds.

Translation: we had a mini liquidity crisis as Wall Street ran out of money to lend for a couple of days. Stay with me, please. You just can’t make this stuff up.

When the U.S. Treasury Note yield (TNX) was rising to 5% (May to October 2023), spurred by the Fed’s QT and the panicked sellers who joined them in selling bonds, it squeezed the liquidity in the financial system. Thus, even though there was plenty of interest in buying stocks and bonds when sentiment turned, there wasn’t enough reserve money available in Wall Street’s loan machine to lend to hungry traders – the proverbial air pocket.

The visual evidence for the hiccup was the December 1, 2023 bump in the Secured Overnight Trading Rate (SOFR), which is best seen in the Zoom thumbnail to the right of the price chart.

As a result, those who got caught off guard and who ended up playing catchup after they missed the rally in stocks and bonds, which I predicted here way back in October, suddenly found themselves with limited supplies of money to borrow in order to trade the reversal. SOFR is back in sync with the Fed Funds rate now. But yeah, that was an interesting development for sure.

Bond Yields Pause, Mortgages Continue Bullish Decline

So where are we now? SOFR seems to be back in sync with the Fed Funds rate, which is why the stock market has resumed its rally. On the other hand, the U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX) has come a long way in a short period of time, which means we can expect it to back up some in the short term.

Indeed, a pause in TNX’s decline could last for the next couple of weeks as the CPI and PPI numbers are released and the Fed meets on December 12-13. Keep an eye on the 4.25-4.4% yield range, as any move above that key zone could trip some algo-selling in stocks and bonds.

Mortgage rates have dropped. A breach below 7% on the average mortgage could well take mortgages to 6.8%, where they will test the 50-day moving average for this series.

Consequently, homebuilder stocks, as in the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), have broken out to new highs, spurred by the bullish beat of earnings expectations and outlook from Toll Brothers (TOL), which I own and recommended in October, 30% below the 12/2/23 closing price.

The long-term fundamentals of supply and demand remain in favor of the homebuilders and related sectors. For the next move in the homebuilders and other important market sectors, join the smart money at Joe Duarte in the Money Options.com FREE with a two-week trial subscription.

For more on homebuilder stocks and real estate stock analysis, click here.   

Interesting Emerging Sectors

Lately, I’ve focused on value investing, as I did in my recent Your Daily Five video, which you can catch here. As it happens, the trend seems to be expanding into sectors which are well off the radar for many investors. Comparing the action in the S&P 500 Citigroup Pure Growth Index (SPXPG) to the trend in the S&P 500 Citigroup Pure Growth Index (SPXPV) index, you can see the dynamic playing out.

One of the most unlikely areas of the market which has benefited from the value trend is the transport sector, where the difficulties being faced by trucking companies are gathering the headlines, but other subsectors are reaping the rewards.

You can see this in the action for the SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN), which has quietly crossed above its 200-day moving average and which looks poised to make a run at its old highs near the high 80s, barring negative developments.

Market Breadth Recovers Post-Liquidity Squeeze

The NYSE Advance Decline line (NYAD) remains in bullish territory, trading above its 50- and 200-day moving averages. This may be slowed in the short-term, as the RSI indicator is nearing an overbought level. But even with a slower rate of climb than NYAD’s, the market’s breadth is holding up.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) is inching above 16,000. And with the Bollinger Bands starting to squeeze around prices, it looks as if a big move is just around the corner. Both ADI and OBV are flattening out as profit-taking increases.

The S&P 500 (SPX) remained above 4500 and looks poised to move above 4600. This is not surprising, as many value stocks continue to push SPX higher.

VIX Remains Below 20

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remained below 20. This is bullish.

A rising VIX means traders are buying large volumes of put options. Rising put option volume from leads market makers to sell stock index futures, hedging their risk. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying. This causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures, raising the odds of higher stock prices.

To get the latest information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

Source link

#Santa #Rally #Stumbled #QQQ #Sets #Big #Move #Careful

With the Fed on Hold, Santa Just Revved Up the Sled; Think Value

Post By Stock , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Santa Claus rally has left the station and is barreling down the tracks, as the Federal Reserve is on hold. 

Before I took a week off from writing this column for the Thanksgiving holiday, I wrote: “Regular readers of this column were not surprised by the rally, given the multiple alerts I posted noting the likelihood of a meaningful market bottom emerging due to the extraordinary technical picture which had developed in the bond market, and the ensuing gloom and doom in stocks as early as September 2023. And although there are no guarantees, the ongoing rally in both stocks and bonds has a great chance of continuing, due to the bullish seasonality which kicks into high gear with the traditional Thanksgiving rally.”

Here’s why we’re rallying. At least three voting members of the FOMC, including Chairman Powell, have made the following clear:

  • No easing in in the cards for now;
  • The Fed is prepared to tighten further if needed; but
  • Unless inflation data worsens, the interest rate hiking cycle is likely over.

All of which adds up to stocks moving higher in the short term, unless something bad happens that derails the bullish sentiment; think CPI, PPI, and the FOMC meeting, which are all approaching. Moreover, there is some evidence that overbought sectors of the market, such as technology, are starting to struggle, which means that some sort of sector rotation is well overdue.

So far, so good; but what’s next?

Bond Yields and Mortgages Continue Bullish Decline

The first part of the answer to the above question lies in the bond market, where rates continue to fall and seem headed lower at a rapid clip. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX) is now well below 4.5% and its 50-day moving average. Moreover, it just broke below the 4.3%-4.4% support area, and looks headed for 4%.

Even more impressive is the move down in mortgage rates (MORTGAGE), which looks set to test the 7% area and may move as low as 6.8%, the 50-day moving average for this series.

As expected, amongst the major beneficiaries of the lower interest rates have been the homebuilders, as reflected in the recent price action for the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), which broke out to a new high on the latest decline in TNX.

In addition, the long-term fundamentals of supply and demand in the housing market remain in favor of the homebuilders and related sectors. These include real estate investment trusts (REITs), which specialize in home rentals and related businesses.

You can see the bullish influence of lower interest rates on Nuveen Short Term REIT ETF (NURE) which is now testing its 200-day moving average. This ETF specializes in rental properties. A move above $30 in REZ is likely to deliver higher prices.

Sector Rotation is Likely

The REIT sector is certainly a place where value investors can find excellent ways to put money to work. But it’s not the only area that has been overlooked by the market lately, and which should benefit from a sector rotation.

Over the last few weeks in this space, I’ve been focusing on value investing, a topic in which I recently expanded in my latest Your Daily Five video, which you can catch here. That’s because growth stocks have become overbought and are due for a pause, while there are still plenty of investors and money managers who missed the October bottom and are being forced to play catchup before the year ends.

You can see this dynamic playing out by comparing the action in the S&P 500 Citigroup Pure Growth Index (SPXPG) to the trend in the S&P 500 Citigroup Pure Growth Index (SPXPV) index.

The growth index has been trading ahead of the value index for the past several weeks, but is now struggling near the 15800 chart point. Meanwhile, the value index has extended its move with greater momentum. You can appreciate the differences in the strengths of the move via the Pure Price Momentum indicators (PMO) for both where the PMO for SPXPV is much stronger.

All of this suggests that the next leg up in the market, barring something bad happening, will likely be led by value stocks.

For more on homebuilder stocks, click here.

The Unloved Energy Sector

After the amazing summer rally in the oil markets, things have cooled off dramatically. At the center of the decline in crude and the fossil fuel sector has been an oversupply of product. On the one hand, higher well efficiency in the U.S. shale sector has increased supply. On the other hand, as usual, OPEC + has not fully stuck to its highly publicized production cuts.

Yet the recent collapse in the clean energy stocks puts a different emphasis on the traditional energy sector, which is why it’s worth looking at the action in the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), where big oil and gas companies are aggregated.

What stands out the most is that even as crude oil prices (WTIC) have come well off their recent top, XLE’s decline has been a lot gentler. In fact, XLE is still trading above its 200-day moving average, which puts it technically in a bullish trend. In addition, the ETF is starting to show signs of moving away (to the upside) from a large VBP bar near $85. Above, there is more resistance from the 50-day moving average and a cluster of VBP bars all the way to $89.

Nevertheless, with components such as BP Plc (BP) trading at seven times earnings while yielding 4.81%, you have to wonder how long before value investors come a-knocking at the door of this sector.

Aside from recommending multiple big winners in the homebuilder and technology sectors, I recently recommended an energy stock which likely to move decidedly higher regardless of what the price of oil does. Join the smart money at Joe Duarte in the Money Options.com, where you can have access to this ETF and a wide variety of bullish stock picks FREE with a two week trial subscription. 

Market Breadth is Now Bullish

The NYSE Advance Decline line (NYAD) is back in bullish territory, coursing above its 50- and 200-day moving averages. So, while there is improvement, we don’t have a definitively bullish long-term signal for the market’s trend, yet. If there is a downside, it’s that the RSI indicator is nearing an overbought situation. However, at this stage of the rally, NYAD’s rate of climb may slow, but does not look as if it will fully reverse in the short term.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) looks a bit tired and needs a rest. The index has struggled to move above 16,000. Both ADI and OBV are flattening out as profit-taking increases.

The S&P 500 (SPX) remained above 4500 and could well move above 4600. This is not surprising, as many value stocks are now pushing SPX higher.

VIX is Back Below 20

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to fall, closing below 15 last week. This is bullish.

A rising VIX means traders are buying large volumes of put options. Rising put option volume from leads market makers to sell stock index futures, hedging their risk. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying. This causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures, raising the odds of higher stock prices.

To get the latest information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

Source link

#Fed #Hold #Santa #Revved #Sled

Santa May Be Warming Up His Sled; What’s Next? Watch the Fed and the Bond Market

Post By Stock , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The traditional year-end rally may have started with last week’s liftoff on Wall Street, as the Fed’s rate hikes start to bite and the economy shows signs of slowing. Investors hope the economy slows just enough to reduce inflation.

The stock market seems to have bottomed, as short sellers panicked and recently frightened buyers rushed back into the markets. It’s about time, as the signs of a pending reversal have been in place for the past two months, namely a slowing economy and fears about the Fed’s rate hike cycle, which have been mounting as investor’s pessimism rose to a fever pitch. Moreover, the self-perpetuating talk of doom loops led to a bout of panic selling, which reversed as the Fed held rates steady and Friday’s employment report showed a cooling in the labor market.

Of course, there are no certainties in any market. And this rally could easily fizzle. But the longer stocks hold up and bond yields remain subdued, the higher the odds of the rally intensifying.

Buckle up! Santa may be warming up his sled.

The Signs Were There

I’ve been expecting a major reversal in both bonds and stocks since September when the selling in the U.S. Treasury market, and the subsequent rise in yields entered an absurd trading pattern. I chronicled the entire process, including the likelihood of a pending reversal in bond yields on October 15, 2023, when I wrote:

“The slightly-hotter-than-predicted PPI and CPI numbers certainly put a temporary damper on the recent short-covering rally in stocks and bonds, raising investor fears about further interest rate increases. But, as I’ve noted recently, fear is often the prelude to a buying opportunity. Such an opportunity may be developing in the U.S. Treasury Bond market and related interest-sensitive sectors of the stock market, such as homebuilders, real estate investment trusts, and select technology stocks.”

Prior to that, I had suggested that a historic buying opportunity in homebuilder stocks was approaching, while providing an actionable trading plan for such a development here.

Last week, in this space, I wrote: “The stock market is increasingly oversold, so investors should prepare for a potential bounce before the end of the year, especially given the usual bullish seasonality which begins in November and can run through January.”

Bond Yields Crash and Burn and Stocks Respond with Bullish Reversal and Broad Rally

What a difference a week makes, especially in the strange world of the U.S. Treasury bond market. Just two weeks ago, the U.S. Ten Year note yield (TNX) tagged 5%, a chart point which triggered heavy selling in stocks from the mechanical trading crowd, also known as commodity trading advisors (CTAs) and their hedge fund brethren. The selling was further enhanced by headlines about mortgage rates moving above 8%.

But as I noted here, the selling spree had the smell of panic, especially given the lack of a new low in the RSI indicator, when the New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD), as I describe below, made a lower low. The key was whether NYAD broke below its March lows, which it didn’t. This provided the perfect setup for a massive short squeeze, which is currently unfolding.

Here are some details. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield has rolled over, with two significant technical developments occurring:

  • TNX is now trading inside the upper Bollinger Band, which is two standard deviations above its 200-day moving average. This marks a return to a “normal” trading pattern;
  • It is also testing its 50-day moving average and the 4.5% yield area. Normal trading action suggests that a consolidation in this area should occur before TNX makes a move toward 4.3%; and
  • Bullishly for the homebuilder and housing-related real estate stocks, as well as the rest of the market, mortgage rates seem to have topped out as well.

Moreover, as I discuss below, the rally seems be quite broad, as measured by the New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line. In addition, money is moving back into large-cap technology stocks, as in the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which also rebounded above its 50-day moving average. Especially encouraging on this price chart is the rally in On Balance Volume (OBV), which signals that the rally is being fueled by real buying along with short-covering, as evidenced by a rising ADI line.

Big tech certainly got a boost, as Microsoft (MSFT) continued its recent climb and is approaching a potential breakout which, if left unhindered, could well take the stock to the $400 area in the next few weeks.

But it’s not just big tech that’s rising. A less obvious member of the QQQ stable, food producer and packager Mondelez (MDLZ), has been quietly moving higher and is now approaching its 200-day moving average. MDLZ’s On Balance Volume (OBV) line is rising nicely as money piles into the shares.

Huge Potential Gains Lurk in Homebuilders

Even better is the unfolding rebound above the 200-day moving average in the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), where OBV is exhibiting an equally bullish trading pattern. As I noted above, I issued a Buy alert on the homebuilders a few weeks ago, and thus subscribers to my service have been well-positioned for this move in the sector.

Consequently, the rally in the homebuilders may just be starting, especially if interest rates don’t rise dramatically from current levels. As the price chart above shows, mortgage rates may have topped out, along with bond yields. This reversal is already being reflected in the bullish action visible in the homebuilder stocks. Note the following:

  • Rates are still trading above normal long term trends. 
  • The upper purple line on the chart is two standard deviations above the 200-day moving average.
  • Since mortgage rates follow the trend in TNX (above), the odds favor a further decline in mortgage rates, with the first downside target being 6.5%.

Note the nearly perfect correlation between falling bond yields (TNX), falling mortgage rates, and rising homebuilder stocks (SPHB).

Join the smart money at Joe Duarte in the Money Options.com. You can have a look at my latest recommendations FREE with a two-week trial subscription. And for frequent updates on real estate and housing, click here.

Incidentally, if you’re looking for the perfect price chart set up, check out my latest YD5 video, where I detail one of my favorite bullish setups. This video will prepare you for the next phase in the market. 

Market Breadth Reverses Bearish Trend

The NYSE Advance Decline line (NYAD) did not remain below is March lows for long, and has now nearly fully reversed its bearish trend as it approaches its 200-day moving average. The price chart below shows the similarity between the unfolding market bottom and that which occurred in October 2022. The circled areas highlight this super cool technical phenomenon where the lack of a new low in the RSI, when NYAD made a new low, marked the bottom. Also note the double top in VIX, which is also repeated.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) rallied above its 50-day moving average, with both ADI and OBV turning higher as short sellers cover (ADI) and buyers move in (OBV).

The S&P 500 (SPX) also rebounded above its 200-day moving average, returning to bullish territory after its recent dip below 4150.

VIX is Back Below 20

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) didn’t stay above the 20 level for long, which is a bullish development.

When the VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures. This raises the odds of higher stock prices.

To get the latest information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

Source link

#Santa #Warming #Sled #Whats #Watch #Fed #Bond #Market

Follow the Smart Money; Technology and Homebuilder Stocks Loved Last Week’s Reversal in Bond Yields

Post By Stock , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The fear on Wall Street is rising to a fever pitch, as put option buyers recently accelerated their bets against the market while sentiment surveys reached levels of bearishness not seen since last October. As I’ve noted recently, fear is often the prelude to a tradable bounce. When fear runs high, it pays to follow the smart money, which is starting to flow back into stocks.

Fear is Reaching Extreme Levels

With so much fear among investors, stocks have now entered a familiar type of uncomfortable period; specifically, the type where even though the market is oversold, investors continue to fret and sell stocks in panic, as worries of higher interest rates continue to rise. The CBOE Put/Call ratio reading of 1.60 on 10/4/23 and the recent reading of 17 on the CNN Greed-Fear index are both bullish from a contrarian standpoint.

Of course, oversold markets can stay oversold for longer than anyone expects. Yet as long as the market does not make new lows, the odds of a tradable bottom building continue to rise. On the other hand, there is a light at the end of the proverbial tunnel, and that light is not an oncoming train. A sustained top and a subsequent retracement in bond yields will likely trigger a rebound in stocks.

Here’s the laundry list of worries:

  • The Fed continues to push for higher interest rates;
  • The market’s breadth has broken down; and
  • Bond yields remain near multi-year highs.

Yet that may all change rather quickly, as the market’s breadth is showing signs of recovery and bond yields are looking a bit top-heavy. Moreover, it looks as if bargain hunters are moving into two key areas of the market.  

Smart Money Sneaks into Tech Stocks

It wasn’t long ago that Wall Street realized that AI stocks had risen too far too fast, and we saw a breakdown in the entire technology sector. Yet, money is quietly moving back into many of the same stocks that broke down when the so-called “AI bubble” burst in August.

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is heavily weighted toward a handful of large-cap tech stocks, including Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL). And while it’s still early in what could be a bumpy recovery for the market, given the Fed’s continuing talk of “higher for longer” interest rates, QQQ, which often bottoms out before the rest of the market, may have already made its lows for the current pullback. At this point, the $350 area seems to be decent support, while $370 is the key short-term resistance level. Accumulation/Distribution (ADI) and On Balance Volume (OBV) are both improving as short sellers leave (ADI) and buyers start moving in (OBV).

A perfect example of the quiet flow of smart money can be seen in shares of Alphabet, which has remained in an uptrend throughout the recent market decline and is now within reach of breaking out.

Bond Yields Are Now Totally Crazy

Much to the chagrin of regular readers, I remain fixated on the action in the bond market. That’s because, if you haven’t noticed, stocks are trading in a direct inverse lock step to bond yields. In other words, rising bond yields lead to falling stock prices and vice-versa. You can thank the robot trader farms for that.

Recently, I’ve noted the U.S. Ten Year Treasury Note (TNX) yield has been trading well above its normal trading range. Specifically, TNX has been above the upper Bollinger Band corresponding to its 200-day moving average since August 11, 2022, except for a small dip back inside the band. As I noted in my recent video on Bollinger Bands, this is a very abnormal trading pattern, which usually precedes a meaningful reversal.

Indeed, something may be happening, and we may be in the early stages of the reversal I’ve been expecting. On 10/6/23, we saw an intraday downturn in TNX after what was initially seen as a bearish jobs report delivered an early rise in yields which took TNX to 4.9%.

The above chart shows that bond yields reached a greater extreme reading recently, as TNX closed three standard deviations above its 200-day moving average on 10/2/23 and 10/6/23 (red line at top of chart), expanding the distortion in the market and likely raising the odds of bond yields reversing their recent climb. Rising bond yields have led to rising mortgage rates and weakness the homebuilder stocks, which as I recently noted to subscribers of JoeDuarteInTheMoneyOptions.com and members of my Buy Me a Coffee page here, may be poised for a rebound.

As the chart below shows, rates (MORTGAGE) have skyrocketed in what looks to be an unsustainable move.

Such a move would be expected to trip a major selloff in the homebuilder stocks. But what we saw was the opposite, as the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) is starting to put in a bottom as bond yields look set to roll over.

The take-home message is that homebuilder stocks are now marching in lockstep to the tune of the bond market. Once bond yields fully reverse, the odds favor a nice move up in homebuilder stocks.

Prepare for the next phase in the market. Join the smart money at JoeDuarteInTheMoneyOptions.com where I have just added five homebuilder stocks to the model portfolios. You can have a look at my latest recommendations FREE with a two week trial subscription. For frequent updates on real estate and housing, click here.

The Market’s Breadth Shows Signs of Stabilizing

The NYSE Advance Decline line (NYAD) fell below its 200-day moving average last week, but cemented its oversold status based on its most recent RSI reading near 30. Of some comfort is that the fledgling bottom in NYAD is developing near its recent March and May bottoms.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) has survived multiple tests of the 14500-15000 support area. ADI and OBV are both bouncing, which means short covering (ADI) and buying (OBV) are occurring simultaneously.

The S&P 500 (SPX) found support just below 4250 and looks set to test the resistance levels near the 20 and 50-day moving averages in the near future. ADI is rising as short sellers cover their positions. If OBV turns up, it will be even more bullish.

VIX Remains Below 20

As it has done for the past few weeks during which the market has corrected, VIX has remained stubbornly below the 20 area. A move above 20 would be very negative.

When the VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures. This raises the odds of higher stock prices.

Liquidity Continues to Tighten

Liquidity is tightening. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), is an approximate sign of the market’s liquidity. It remains near its recent high in response to the Fed’s move and the rise in bond yields. A move below 5.0 would be bullish. A move above 5.5% would signal that monetary conditions are tightening beyond the Fed’s intentions, which would be very bearish.

To get the latest information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

Source link

#Follow #Smart #Money #Technology #Homebuilder #Stocks #Loved #Weeks #Reversal #Bond #Yields

As Fed Plays with Fire, Focus on Strength, Ignore Intraday Volatility, and Expect the Unexpected

Post By Stock , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

There is only one way to survive this market. Focus on strength. Ignore the intraday volatility. And always expect the unexpected.

The stock market remains in a stubborn trading pattern, with nearly equal measures of strength and relative weakness. On the one hand, many hedge funds remain short stocks. Their short-term options related plays create intraday volatility and perpetuate a general feeling of uncertainty.

On the other hand, value players are moving into certain sectors, especially after short-term bear raids knock them down. Their steady buying counters the hedge funds’ short-term trades, often creating intraday rallies. In between are bond traders betting on recession.

Combined, these influences are creating a frustrating narrow trading range with unpredictable intraday swings. Yet, as the Fed continues to talk tough on inflation and rate hike odds rose late in the week, in the real world, the economy is already showing signs of slowing. CPI is flattening, PPI may be rolling over, retail sales are slowing, commercial real estate is in trouble, and layoffs and joblessness claims are rising.

The Fed is Playing with Fire

The Fed is playing with fire as it plans for an almost certain 25-basis-point rate increase in the Fed Funds rate at its May 2-3 FOMC meeting.

Last week, in this space, I expressed concern about the unexpected decrease in jobs created by the private sector in the Southern region of the U.S. Here is a reprise of the regional ADP new-jobs-created numbers:

  • Northeast: 141,000
  • Midwest: 132,000
  • West: 95,000
  • South: (-) 228,000

As I noted then, these numbers reflect a slowing in new job creations, with the reduction in the South sounding the alarm. 

I also noted that the Challenger Jobs Cut report and weekly jobs claim data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (weekly jobless claims) were starting to suggest more weakness may lie ahead. Specifically, I noted that Challenger had reported 89,000+ job cuts for March, 270,000+ for the year. The West Coast was the biggest contributor. Here is the breakdown of Challenger’s numbers:

  • East: 13,638
  • Midwest: 21,764
  • West: 48,123
  • South: 6,178

In conclusion:

  • New job listings are falling;
  • New job creation is stalling;
  • Layoffs are increasing; and
  • The number of people requesting unemployment insurance is on the rise.

What could possibly go wrong when the Fed raises rates in May?

Mortgage Activity Picks Up as Rates Fall; Watch Support Area for Homebuilders

The recent decline in bond yields, notwithstanding the reversal on 4/15/23 in response to hawkish Fed talk, has turned the housing market into a haven for interest rate stalkers. Every time bond yields fall, potential home buyers who are on the fence pounce on the lower rates. Over time, this will continue to fuel the bullish trend for homebuilders, especially in the Southern U.S. In the present, however, the bond market continues to bet on a recession as yields test the 3.5% area.

If the bond market is correct, the U.S. economy is heading for recession and the Federal Reserve will be pressed to lower interest rates. The Fed meets on May 2-3 and is now expected to raise rates 25 basis points. That is likely to increase volatility in bond yields.

Mortgage rates fell for the fifth straight week, following historical norms as the multi-year view of the relationship between bond yields (TNX) and mortgage rates (MORTGAGE) shows. Normally, this bullish scenario is also a positive for the price action in the Homebuilders Subsector Index (SPHB).

For now, however, the homebuilder sector remains in a consolidation pattern as traders await more definitive direction from the Fed on interest rates. Another Fed rate hike, which is possible at its May 2-3 FOMC meeting, would once again put a damper on mortgage rates and the stock market, including the homebuilders.

On the other hand, given what we’re seeing in relationship to bond yields and mortgage rates, a pause would likely boost homebuilder stocks. For now, the consolidation pattern is SPHB is not necessarily a sign of alarm, although a move below 1800 (the 50-day moving average) would be a very bearish development for the sector.

To view my homebuilder picks and how I’m trading the bond market, click here. For an in-depth comprehensive outlook on the homebuilder sector, click here.

Focusing on Strength

Investors with positions in the right sectors are outperforming the market. Here are two examples of what’s working and what’s not.

Commercial real estate is struggling. This is especially affecting the technology-rich areas of Silicon Valley and Austin, Texas, where vacancy rates are rising. Moreover, a negative divergence is developing between bond yields and real estate investment trusts.

Normally, lower bond yields are bullish for real estate investment trusts (REITs). But because of the office bust in the tech sector, loan defaults are piling up, vacancy rates are rising, and we’re just not seeing any signs of life in the REITs. You can see the action in the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) as it struggles below its 200-day moving average. That’s a sign that investors are bracing for even worse circumstances.

On the other hand, the oil stocks are attracting money. You can see the steady accumulation pattern in the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE). Especially bullish is the recent uptick in On Balance Volume (OBV), which signals that buyers are building positions. A move above $90 would likely attract more money into XLE as momentum players begin to crowd in.

I recently recommended two energy options trades, which you can access with a FREE trial to Joe Duarte in the Money Options.com. In addition, I just wrote a comprehensive report on the oil market, which is available FREE of charge to members at my Buy me a Coffee page.

Breadth Holds Steady, Nasdaq Again Holds 13,000

Although prices gyrated wildly in a narrow range last week, the market’s breadth held up. Once again, the New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) closed above its 50-day moving average and its long-term support line, the 200-day moving average. This is a positive.

The S&P 500 (SPX) also held up, despite short-term volatility closing above 4100. 4100-4200 is still an important resistance band. On Balance Volume (OBV) and Accumulation Distribution (ADI) remained constructive.

For its part, the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) also held above the important 13,000 area, which has becomes fairly reliable support. This remains bullish as it suggests money is now pouring into technology stocks. When tech stocks rally, they give the whole market a boost. Accumulation Distribution (ADI) and On Balance Volume (OBV) are very bullish for NDX.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) broke to a new low and is now well below 20, a sign that the bears are throwing in the towel. This is also bullish.

When VIX rises ,stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures in order to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures. This raises the odds of higher stock prices.

The market’s liquidity retreated as the Eurodollar Index (XED) closed slightly below 94.75 on Fed hike expectations. A move above 95 will be a bullish development for sure. Usually, a stable or rising XED is very bullish for stocks. On the other hand, in the current environment, it’s more of a sign that fear is rising and investors are raising cash.

To get the latest up-to-date information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

Joe Duarte

About the author:
Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst going back to 1987. His books include the best selling Trading Options for Dummies, a TOP Options Book for 2018, 2019, and 2020 by Benzinga.com, Trading Review.Net 2020 and Market Timing for Dummies. His latest best-selling book, The Everything Investing Guide in your 20’s & 30’s, is a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month. To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations in your mailbox every week, visit the Joe Duarte In The Money Options website.
Learn More

Subscribe to Top Advisors Corner to be notified whenever a new post is added to this blog!

Source link

#Fed #Plays #Fire #Focus #Strength #Ignore #Intraday #Volatility #Expect #Unexpected

Stocks Retain Uptrend: Focusing on the Right Homebuilder in a Volatile Market

Post By Stock , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The release of the March payrolls numbers threw a wrench into the notion that the US economy is slowing. At the same time, given all the negative data which preceded it, the big question is when the market will start to doubt the veracity of the monthly employment numbers.

Just a week ago, the stock market was back in a technology sector-fueled uptrend. But, on April 4, a major trend reversal took hold as JP Morgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon remarked that the banking crisis was nowhere near over and that the repercussions would last for years. His remarks were reinforced by a slew of data showing a rapid slowing of the US economy.

By Thursday, ahead of the Good Friday market closing, the market had found support. But when the employment data was released on April 7, 2023, everything was once again up in the air, although the stock index futures moved slightly higher on the news.

The report delivered lower-than-expected private jobs at 189,000. A higher-than-expected number of government jobs boosted the overall print, which totaled 236,000. Hourly wages rose slightly, but hours worked dropped slightly. The highest number of new jobs was in the waiter/bartender category.

That was seen as a middle-of-the-road number. Yet it doesn’t jibe with the private market data.

Private Market Data Points to Worsening Labor Market

Before Friday’s employment report, Purchasing Managers’ data (ISM, PMI) showed a slowing economy as new orders faltered. Government jobs listings (JOLTS) weakened. The ADP private sector jobs created showed job creation stalling. The recent Challenger Jobs Cut report showed an increase in layoffs.

Inside the ADP data, the numbers from the Southern US, an area of strength, showed net job losses. This is significant, as the South has been the strongest economic area of the country, boosted by the migration of people from the East, West, and Midwest.

Here is the regional breakdown of the ADP new jobs created numbers:

  • Northeast: 141,000
  • Midwest: 132,000
  • West: 95,000
  • South: (-) 228,000

These numbers reflect a slowing in new job creation, not necessarily layoffs. Reductions in manufacturing and financial services led the way, suggesting banking sector weakness. Moreover, manufacturers are struggling as export orders fall, a point made in the ISM and PMI data.

The Challenger Jobs Cut report and weekly jobs claim data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics added to the weakening picture. Challenger reported 89,000-plus job cuts for March, 270,000-plus for the year. The West Coast was the biggest contributor. Here is the breakdown of Challenger’s numbers:

  • East: 13,638
  • Midwest: 21,764
  • West: 48,123
  • South: 6,178

The Technology sector accounted for 102,391 during the first three months of 2023. The bottom line is fourfold:

  • New job listings are falling;
  • New job creation is stalling;
  • Layoffs are increasing; and
  • The number of people requesting unemployment insurance is on the rise.

Bond Yields Collapsed, Mortgage Rates Follow

Before the jobs number, stocks were volatile and bond yields fell. The 10-Year US Treasury Yield index ($TNX) broke decisively below 3.5%, finishing the week below 3.3%, as bond traders bet on a recession. The initial response in muted Friday bond futures trading was a rate uptick to just below 3.4%.

Of note, as I detail below, homebuilder stocks paused. The ADP data, showing job weakness in the South U.S., could be a problem, given that this is where the largest growth area for new homes is currently.

If the bond market is correct, the US economy is heading for recession, and the Federal Reserve will be pressed to lower interest rates. The Fed meets on May 2-3.

Mortgage rates continue to fall, which is generally bullish for homebuilders. A multi-year view of the relationship between bond yields ($TNX), the price action in the Homebuilders Subsector Index ($SPHB), and mortgage rates ($$MORTGAGE) document the close relationship between these three indicators.

To view my homebuilder picks click here.

Focusing on the Right Homebuilder is the Right Approach in a Volatile Market

In the short term, the SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF (XHB) remains in an uptrend, as it is trading above its 50-day moving average. The current trading pattern suggests a likely continuation of a consolidation pattern. Still, in this market, it’s best to consider individual homebuilder stocks.

That’s because, even though XHB is a useful tool, it’s not a pure gauge of the homebuilder stocks. The ETF holds the stock of companies that supply materials to homebuilders, as well as specialty homebuilders such as Cavco Industries (CVCO). Cavco makes manufactured homes, and although its recent earnings and revenues have been excellent, any type of weakness in the economy—such as a precipitous decline in the job market for the Southern U.S. (ADP data above)—would likely affect it more negatively than other homebuilders.

Comparing CVCO to Lennar (LEN), a homebuilder that targets a higher income bracket, you can see the weakening employment situation in the South was not as large a negative on LEN.

As a result, the action in CVCO and other individual companies in XHB can assert negative pressure on the ETF. In other words, this is one of those times when owning individual homebuilder stocks may outperform owning the entire sector.

I discussed the long-term investment potential in homebuilder stocks in my latest Your Daily Five video, focused on investing in Megatrends. And I’ve just put the finishing touches on a Special Report titled: “How to Invest in the Housing Megatrend,” which is you can download my Buy me a Coffee page.

Breadth Pauses. Nasdaq Holds 13,000.

The market’s breadth did not break last week, but did show some weakness, as the New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) dipped below its 50-day moving average while remaining above its long-term support line, the 200-day moving average.

The S&P 500 index ($SPX) also held up closing above 4100. 4100-4200 is still an important resistance band. On Balance Volume (OBV) and Accumulation Distribution (ADI) remained constructive.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX) held above its breakout level 13,000, which now becomes support. This remains bullish, as it suggests money is now pouring into technology stocks. When tech stocks rally, they give the whole market a boost. Accumulation Distribution and OBV are very bullish for $NDX.

The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) has broken below 20, a sign that the bears are throwing in the towel. The recent low is 17. A break below that would signal a severe decline in bearish sentiment.

When VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, which is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures, raising the odds of higher stock prices.

The market’s liquidity remains stable as the Eurodollar Index ($XED) remained above support, near 94.75. A move above 95 will be a bullish development for sure. Usually, a stable or rising XED is very bullish for stocks. On the other hand, in the current environment, it’s more of a sign that fear is rising and investors are raising cash.

To get the latest up-to-date information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

Joe Duarte

About the author:
Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst going back to 1987. His books include the best selling Trading Options for Dummies, a TOP Options Book for 2018, 2019, and 2020 by Benzinga.com, Trading Review.Net 2020 and Market Timing for Dummies. His latest best-selling book, The Everything Investing Guide in your 20’s & 30’s, is a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month. To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations in your mailbox every week, visit the Joe Duarte In The Money Options website.
Learn More

Subscribe to Top Advisors Corner to be notified whenever a new post is added to this blog!

Source link

#Stocks #Retain #Uptrend #Focusing #Homebuilder #Volatile #Market

‘We’ve become a renting nation’: Landlords benefit from high house prices, but millions of renters find themselves trapped

Post By Stock , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

When Nashville, Tenn., native Stephen Parker recently listed a mobile home that he owns on the rental market, he received about 30 applications in one week. “I priced it competitively,” he said.

Parker, who is also a real-estate agent, said that he sees rent growth staying strong as many people find it too expensive to purchase homes, a situation made worse by low inventory and high interest rates.

He bought his first investment property in 2020, and his portfolio of rentals has since grown. He owns various properties, including a small mobile home park, a duplex and several single-family homes. 

“We’ve become a renting nation,” Henry Stimler, an executive in the multifamily capital-markets division at the real-estate firm Newmark, told MarketWatch.

Renters have more flexibility and fewer of the responsibilities that come with home ownership, Stimler said, and they can more easily move to other cities and states. “I don’t think it’s a bad thing,” he said.

Nashville, for its part, was ranked one of the hottest real-estate markets of 2023 by Zillow
Z,
-0.72%.
But with the surge in interest rates and demand, new residents may find buying property in that city expensive.

Stephen Parker, a landlord and real-estate agent from Tennessee, said demand for his rentals has been strong.


Stephen Parker

With homeownership continuing to be out of reach for many, landlords like Parker are poised to benefit. “You may be better off renting, especially if you don’t know if Nashville is where you’re going to be forever,” Parker told MarketWatch. 

Mortgage rates began climbing after the U.S. Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in early 2022. On Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association said the 30-year rate was averaging 6.48%, up from 3.22% in early 2022.

Higher rates have added hundreds of dollars in interest costs to home buyers’ monthly payments. Buyers have subsequently seen the amount they can afford to pay for a house shrink, even as there are fewer homes for sale.

The U.S. economic outlook remains unclear — a situation compounded by the crisis in the banking sector. Many Americans are worried about job security and financial stability and are reluctant to purchase a home, according to Fannie Mae
FNMA,
-1.41%.

Some good news: Rents appear to have stabilized. The government’s analysis of the housing sector shows that rents grew 0.8% in February, pushing the increase over the past year to a 42-year high of 8.8%. However, research from private sources — such as Apartment List — indicates that rent growth has slowed. After five straight months in which rents fell, national rents rose by 0.3% in February, the company said. 

‘I just want roots’

Jennifer Mark, a 49-year-old autotransfusionist in Goshen, Ind., lives in a $625-a-month one-bedroom apartment with her adult daughter and her husband. She’s been selling cupcake toppers on Etsy to bring in extra money.

But thanks to medical bills that are weighing on her credit score, Mark is not yet able to qualify for a Federal Housing Administration-backed loan and can’t purchase a home, although she has a budget of about $150,000.

Finding a two-bedroom to rent would make homeownership an even more distant prospect. The higher monthly rent would make it difficult for her to save for a home and to pay off the debts that are keeping her credit score low.

The average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Goshen is $925 per month, up 12% from a year ago, according to Rent.com. For a decent apartment, the cost is closer to $1,200. “My God, rent is so high,” she said.

Renting also comes with restrictions. “If I’m going to be paying this much for rent, then I may as well own and be able to do what I want with my house and not have someone tell me, ‘Oh, you can’t have a cat. You can’t have a dog,’” she said.

She needs to pay off medical bills so she can achieve a credit score of at least 580 — a level she’s already surpassed on newer credit-scoring models not often used by mortgage lenders, like FICO 8 — and qualify for a loan.

Renting does have some perks, she said. She doesn’t have to worry about paying for plumbing or furnace issues, for instance. But owning a home is still her dream, and it remains out of reach. “I just want roots,” Mark said.

A generation of renters? 

The data shows a mixed picture for renters: While the U.S. is building a ton of apartments, home prices aren’t expected to fall enough to make owning one affordable for many lower-income Americans.

There are currently over 940,000 apartments under construction in the U.S., up 24.9% from a year ago, which is helping to address demand. The number of multifamily units under construction is at its highest level since 1974. 

But the supply is not helping all Americans equally. The U.S. is short approximately 7.3 million affordable, available rental homes for extremely low-income tenants, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition.

One of Stephen Parker’s rental units.


Stephen Parker

Newer units, meanwhile, have been targeted at higher-income renters, wrote Whitney Airgood-Obrycki, a senior research associate at the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, in a blog post this month.

And while rent growth has moderated for more expensive apartments in more sought-after neighborhoods, Airgood-Obrycki wrote, prices were rising faster at the end of last year for the lowest-quality units. 

Landlords are slowing rent increases, Redfin
RDFN,
-5.08%
deputy chief economist Taylor Marr said in a recent report, “because they’re grappling with a rise in vacancies as an influx of new apartments hits the market.” 

Renters — particularly in the multifamily sector — are more likely to stay put due to high interest rates, Stimler said.

“Those who bought apartment buildings last year and locked in historically low rates before rates started rising, they’re going to be okay, because less and less of their tenants are going to leave and become homeowners,” Stimler said. 

Some Americans feel like they are becoming a generation of permanent renters, losing out on the “American dream” of owning a home and building wealth through real estate. But Stimler said he did not think that was necessarily a bad thing. 

“Our parents got married at 21 or 22, settled down, bought a home, got on the property ladder, and that was their first property purchase,” Stimler said. “That was a huge milestone then. Today, we don’t have that need anymore.”

“Millennials are much more transient,” he said. “They want to be able to pick up and leave, and go anywhere [and have] the ability to work from anywhere. All of these factors have led to a decline in the demand for single-family homes.”

Wherever you stand on that particular debate, one thing is clear: Landlords are benefiting from an increasingly unaffordable housing market, while millions of renters in the U.S. find themselves trapped.

“One man’s meat is another man’s poison,” Stimler said.

Source link

#Weve #renting #nation #Landlords #benefit #high #house #prices #millions #renters #find #trapped

Real Problems in Real Estate

Post By Stock , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The correction in stock prices may be gathering steam, and the potential for a full-blown liquidity crisis seems to be rising. The reason may be that several big players in commercial real estate have recently defaulted on billions of dollars’ worth of loans.

Last week, in this space I wrote: “Something happened to the markets around Valentine’s Day which could reverse the recent uptrend.” Well, the trend is increasingly wobbly, and we are getting new information which may explain at least part of what’s happening.

Real Trouble in Real Estate

The hotter than expected PCE (Personal Consumption Deflator) data grabbed the headlines. But it seems that its arrival on the scene may be more of a catalyst for an already churning dynamic in the market than the cause for the renewed selling on February 24, 2023.

Think commercial real estate defaults.

Over the last few weeks, in this space, I reported that several major real estate investors have faced increasing difficulties. I also noted that it’s possible that these, along with other commercial property REITs that are having problems with foreclosures, may have been selling U.S. Treasury bonds in order to raise cash to fund operations as their cash flow dries up due to rising vacancies.

I’ve noted that Brookfield’s LA default (highlighted in prior link) has been well reported, while the even bigger Blackstone (BSX) is also having its share of problems along with Starwood (STWD). Brookfield’s (BAM) CEO Bruce Flatt is calling the LA default insignificant, while citing demand for premium space around the world, in places like Dubai, as more than enough to offset the LA issues for the company.

Nevertheless, the Toronto-based asset manager’s stock is rolling over along with the market for sure.

If there’s a worsening of the situation, the default which we may look back on as the one that broke the camel’s back, is that of Pimco’s $1.7 billion worth of mortgage notes tied to buildings owned by Pimco’s Columbia Property Trust in Los Angeles, Boston, New York and Jersey City, New Jersey.

Together, Pimco and Brookfield have defaulted on nearly $2.5 billion. But there seem to be more on the way, as TheRealDeal.com recently reported the Chetrit Group just defaulted on an $85 million loan in the tony New York City Hudson Yards property. If things don’t improve soon, and margin calls escalate, we could see a complete reversal of the recent rally in stocks.

Just in case, I’ve added some new select hedges to my model portfolios. You can check them out here with a free trial to my service.

Bond Yields Test Crucial Resistance Levels: REITs Heading Lower

As I noted above, the commercial real estate market is facing serious headwinds. Moreover, if things don’t improve fairly quickly, the problems could spread to other areas of the market.

Meanwhile, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield ($TNX) has stubbornly remained above 3.8% and seems to be mounting an attack on the 4% area. This may be in response to selling by investors, who’re having trouble making payments due to an increasingly restrictive Federal Reserve. A move above 4% would be a major negative for stocks, which could trigger very aggressive selling.

The rise in treasury bond yields has spawned a major reversal in mortgage rates, which is likely to dampen or at least slow the potential bottoming of the residential real estate market.

The homebuilder sector ($SPHB) has been fairly steady in comparison to other areas of the stock market, but a move above 4% on $TNX could send mortgage rates to levels near or above 7%. If that happens, it’s likely to kill the housing market. Already, the homebuilder sector ($SPHB) is threatening to break below its 50-day moving average.

Even more dire is the situation in commercial real estate, where the Dow Jones Real Estate Index ($DJR) has just broken below its 50- and 200-day moving averages and could be headed significantly lower if there’s no improvement in the market’s liquidity. Note the close inverse relationship between $TNX and $DJR and how they both reflect on the S&P 500 index ($SPX).

For a detailed explanation of how to manage your portfolio during a liquidity crisis, watch this Your Daily Five video.

Test of Key Market Support is Unfolding

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line ($NYAD) broke below support at its 20-day moving average last week and is now on its way to a test of its 50-day moving average.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 easily sliced through the 4000 area and is now actively testing the key support band of 3950 and the 200-day moving average.

The Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX) broke below the 12,200 and is now testing the support of the 200-day moving average.

For its part, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) is still lagging the current bearish trend due to a larger focus by option traders on contracts which expire in short periods of time, while VIX measures the volatility of longer-term options. Still, VIX is showing signs that it wants to turn up in a hurry.

When VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures in order to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying. This causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures, raising the odds of higher stock prices.

Liquidity tried to stabilize on February 25, 2023, but the Eurodollar Index ($XED) still closed below 95, which had been a reliable support level. Note the market’s most recent rally, off of the October bottom, has corresponded to this flattening out in liquidity. Note how the continuous decline in the Eurodollar index corresponded to the bear trend in 2022 and how the current liquidity reduction has impacted the market negatively.

You can learn more about how to gauge the market’s liquidity in this Your Daily Five video.

To get the latest up-to-date information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

Joe Duarte

About the author:
Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst going back to 1987. His books include the best selling Trading Options for Dummies, a TOP Options Book for 2018, 2019, and 2020 by Benzinga.com, Trading Review.Net 2020 and Market Timing for Dummies. His latest best-selling book, The Everything Investing Guide in your 20’s & 30’s, is a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month. To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations in your mailbox every week, visit the Joe Duarte In The Money Options website.
Learn More

Subscribe to Top Advisors Corner to be notified whenever a new post is added to this blog!

Source link

#Real #Problems #Real #Estate