What we know about the French senator accused of drugging an MP in attempted sex assault

French Senator Joël Guerriau is facing preliminary charges of drugging a fellow lawmaker with the intent to commit “rape or sexual assault”, prosecutors confirmed Friday, in a case that has shocked France. Guerriau was suspended from both his Horizons party and his Senate group on Saturday. 

The 66-year-old senator from western France was arrested at his Paris home on Thursday over the alleged attempted assault of Sandrine Josso, 48, a member of the lower-house National Assembly. He is accused of drugging the MP by spiking her drink after he invited her to his home. 

Guerriau was placed under judicial supervision on Friday pending the outcome of the investigation, restricting his freedom of movement. Prosecutors said the two politicians were long-standing acquaintances but were not in a relationship. 

Guerriau’s centre-right party Horizons, which is allied to President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, said on Saturday it had suspended the senator “with immediate effect” and initiated disciplinary proceedings “that could lead to his permanent exclusion”.  

His Senate group Les Indépendants, which includes senators from Horizons and other centre-right parties, announced it was taking the same steps in a statement shortly after.

  • What has Guerriau been charged with?

Guerriau is facing preliminary charges of “administering to a person, without their knowledge, a substance likely to impair their discernment or control over their actions in order to commit rape or sexual assault”, according to the Paris public prosecutor’s office.  

His lawyer Rémi-Pierre Drai said he denies the charge. Guerriau was also charged with possessing drugs, Drai added.

Joël Guerriau, 66, has been a French senator since 2011. © Paul Brounais, Wikimedia Creative Commons

The senator was arrested after Josso filed a legal complaint. He was detained under rules of “flagrancy”, which grant investigators special powers – such as overriding parliamentary immunity – when the suspect is caught in the act or shortly thereafter. Searches were carried out at Guerriau’s office and also at his home, where investigators found ecstasy, a potent drug that causes both stimulant and hallucinogenic effects. 

Guerriau and the alleged victim were jointly questioned, in their lawyers’ presence, for nearly two hours on Friday, a common practice in France known as a “confrontation”. After his release from police custody, the senator was placed under judicial supervision and banned from contacting Josso or any witnesses. 

Under French law, preliminary charges mean that the investigating magistrates have strong reason to suspect wrongdoing but need more time to determine whether to send a case to trial. Charges levelled at Guerriau carry a maximum penalty of five years’ imprisonment and a €75,000 fine.

  • What do we know about the incident? 

Josso told investigators she felt ill after having a drink on Tuesday night at the senator’s Paris apartment, prosecutors said. According to French broadcaster BFMTV, which cited sources close to the investigation, the MP told police that the two had initially agreed to meet at a restaurant but that Guerriau suggested they dine at his home instead.

Her lawyer, Julia Minkowski, told AFP that her client felt unwell after drinking a glass of champagne and had seen the senator “grabbing a small plastic bag containing something white in a drawer in his kitchen”. Josso then realised that he was trying to drug her without her knowledge, the counsel added. 

“She had to deploy monumental physical and intellectual forces to overcome her terror and extricate herself at the last minute from this ambush,” Minkowski said, adding that her client was “in a state of shock”. 

Josso was admitted to hospital for tests, which revealed the presence of ecstasy in her system. The lawmaker subsequently lodged a complaint. 


Guerriau’s lawyer denied his client intended to assault the lawmaker, claiming it was a “handling error” that caused her to fall ill. The senator “will fight to prove he never intended to administer a substance to his colleague and longstanding friend to abuse her”, Drai said in a statement to the press. 

A former banker, Guerriau has been a member of the Senate, the French parliament’s upper house, since 2011, representing the western Loire-Atlantique region. He currently serves as deputy head of its foreign affairs and defence committee.  

Guerriau joined Horizons, the party created by former prime minister Edouard Philippe, in 2022, having previously been involved with a variety of centre-right parties. He was also deputy head of Les Indépendants, the group he sits with in the French Senate.

Guerriau’s lawyer said his client was “not a predator”, describing him as “an honest man, respected and respectable, who will restore his and his family’s honour”.  

The senator was previously unknown to the general public, though he made waves on social media in December 2016 when a post on the Islamic State (IS) group appeared on his Twitter account with a close-up picture of a penis. Guerriau claimed his account had been hacked and vowed to press charges, but later dropped the matter.  

Josso is a member of the lower-house National Assembly, also from Loire-Atlantique. She was first elected in 2017 under the banner of Macron’s fledgling party La République en Marche (LREM) and is now a member of its centrist ally MoDem. 

Her lawyer said Guerriau “had been a friend for around 10 years in whom she had complete confidence”, stressing her client’s “feeling of betrayal and total incomprehension”.   

  • What has been the response among the political class? 

Several politicians have expressed their shock on social media and called for a swift investigation.  

The allegations, “if proven, are horrific”, Environment Minister Christophe Béchu, a member of Horizons, told France Inter radio on Friday, adding that Guerriau “can obviously no longer remain in the party (…) if there is any element of doubt”.  


Horizons’ political bureau voted unanimously on Saturday to suspend Guerriau “with immediate effect”. Bureau members said they were “deeply shocked by the facts at the root of the accusations” and had initiated a “disciplinary procedure that could lead to (the senator’s) permanent exclusion”. 

The party said it would “never tolerate the slightest complacency toward sexual and sexist violence” and promised to call the plaintiff to express its support and solidarity. 

Guerriau’s Senate group released a statement shortly after, saying it had also suspended the senator and initiated disciplinary proceedings. 



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Germany’s historical guilt haunts opponents of Israeli war in Gaza

Germany’s responsibility for the Holocaust underlines Berlin’s staunch defence of Israel and its bans on expressions of Palestinian solidarity, which authorities blame for a rise in anti-Semitism. But critics say the state is failing German Jews opposed to Israel’s policies and stifling the freedom of expression of immigrants.

Deborah Feldman knows a thing or two about standing up to authority. Her bestselling autobiography – which was the basis of the Netflix miniseries, “Unorthodox” – attests to that.

In her book, “Unorthodox: The Scandalous Rejection of My Hasidic Roots”, the New York-born Feldman recounts how she escaped her ultra-Orthodox Jewish community, the Yiddish-speaking Hasidic Satmar sect.

After moving to Berlin, Feldman became a naturalised German citizen in 2017 and is a familiar figure in her adopted country, where her book readings are sold-out events.

In numerous media appearances, she has discussed the curious twist of fate that saw a girl, brought up to be terrified of Germany by Holocaust survivors, embrace a country that is now considered an icon of post-conflict national reckoning.

But on Tuesday, November 1, Feldman took her adopted country to task in an electrifying TV appearance.

As Israeli warplanes pounded Gaza in retaliation for the October 7 Hamas attack, Feldman appeared as a panelist on the primetime Markus Lanz talk show on a German public TV station.

In a clip that has since gone viral on social media, Feldman held truth to power on a particularly sensitive topic in Germany: the country’s ironclad special relationship with Israel and its implications for German Jews and Muslims criticising Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s government and calling for an end to the Gaza war.

Postwar Germany’s atonement for the horrors of the Holocaust has seen the German government and all major political parties condemn the Hamas attack on Israel while brooking no discussion on the context of the current conflict. Pro-Palestinian rallies have been banned. The list of writers, artists and cultural figures disinvited or being forced to resign due to expressions of sympathy for the Palestinian people grows longer by the day. Even small Jewish protests criticising Israel’s actions in Gaza have faced censure.

In her TV takedown of the current situation in Germany, Feldman cut to the heart of the matter. As a grandchild of Holocaust survivors, the 37-year-old Jewish writer noted that “there is only one legitimate doctrine of the Holocaust. And that is the absolute, unconditional defence of human rights – for everyone”, she said in German. “Anyone who wants to instrumentalise the Holocaust to justify further violence has forfeited their own humanity.”

The responsibilities of the past

On the foreign policy front, the German position has been in line with the US on the Gaza war, which has claimed more than 12,000 Palestinian lives, according to health authorities in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip, in addition to the roughly 1,200 people killed in a single day during the October 7 Hamas massacre in Israel.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was the first Western leader to visit Israel following the Hamas attack. After his meeting with Netanyahu on October 17, Scholz said that “the responsibility we bear as a result of the Holocaust makes it our duty to stand up for the existence and security of the state of Israel”.

The next day, US President Joe Biden was on the tarmac at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport, where he walked into Netanyahu’s arms.

Both visiting leaders called for humanitarian pauses, but not a ceasefire, to enable Israel’s stated goal of destroying Hamas.

But Middle East foreign policy is not a driving issue for Berlin, which tends to follow Washington’s lead. In Germany, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is much more of a domestic issue, one that is more beholden to atoning for the past than addressing the challenges of the future, according to critics.

Addressing anti-Semitism

Germany has seen an explosion of anti-Semitic incidents over the past month. In the week after the Hamas attacks, anti-Semitic incidents in Germany soared by 240 percent compared with the same period in 2022. Mosques were also targeted, with eight mosques receiving parcels with torn-up Koran fragments mixed with fecal matter during the same period, according to the police.

On October 18, at around 3.45am local time, assailants threw two Molotov cocktails at a Berlin synagogue. The bottles, filled with liquid explosives, landed on the pavement outside the synagogue and a small fire was put out by security officials, “preventing further consequences”, said a police statement.

Scholz was quick to condemn the synagogue assault, but the German leader was not as eloquent as his vice-chancellor, Robert Habeck, a poet-turned-politician from the Green party.

In a widely acclaimed speech, the German vice-chancellor criticised anti-Semitism from Islamists, “parts of the left” and the far-right. Habeck’s 10-minute video clip immediately went viral, getting more 11 million views on X, formerly Twitter.


“Anti-Semitism is not to be tolerated in any form,” said Habeck. “Anyone who is German will have to answer for it in court. If you’re not German, you also risk your residency status. Anyone who doesn’t have a residence permit provides a reason to be deported.” 

Hours later, Habeck joined the Markus Lanz talk show panel via video link. His fellow panelist, Feldman, directed her own 10-minute speech at the German vice-chancellor.

“Herr Habeck,” said Feldman as the screen behind her displayed the vice-chancellor listening intently. “You say you stand for the protection of Jewish life in this country. I’m horrified how Jews can, in principle, only be considered Jews here if they represent the right-wing conservative agenda of the Israeli government.”

As an outspoken secular Jew, Feldman is no stranger to backlash from conservative Jewish groups. Shortly before getting on air, she received a screenshot of a post in which a journalist working for a state-funded German Jewish newspaper fantasised about the “Unorthodox” author being held hostage by Hamas in Gaza.

The latest ire was sparked by an open letter signed by more than 100 Jewish academics, artists and writers, including Feldman, rejecting “the conflation of anti-Semitism and any criticism of the state of Israel” and calling on Germany to “adhere to its own commitments to free expression and the right to assembly”.

The calls appear to be falling on deaf ears, admits Susan Neiman, director of the Potsdam-based Einstein Forum and one of the open letter signatories.

“German politicians are cleaving to the old position, indeed doubling down on it,” said Neiman. “Politicians and most media are absolutely holding on to the idea that we have to support Israel, right or wrong, and what Israel is doing in Gaza is justified by Hamas terrorism. My position is we can condemn both.”

German far-right party embraces Israel

It’s a position under strain in the Bundestag as German parliamentarians confront the rising popularity of the far-right Alternative for German (AfD) party, which overtook Scholz’s coalition in opinion polls this year amid concerns over surging migration.

Since it secured 14 seats in the Bundestag in 2017, the anti-immigrant AfD has “tried to make common cause with Israel’s tough stance toward terror and self-styled position as a forward bulwark against Islamic extremism,” noted the Times of Israel.

Once shunned on the political stage, the AfD has attempted to refute suspicions of neo-Nazism within its ranks by public displays of support for Israel, according to experts.

“Racism toward other groups can be covered up by denouncing anti-Semitism and swearing support for any Israeli government,” wrote Neiman in an article in the New York Review of Books.

In May 2020, the German far-right party raised eyebrows in Israel when a senior AfD European Parliament member used a photograph and quote of the Israeli prime minister’s son, Yair Netanyahu.

“Schengen zone is dead and soon your evil globalist organisation will be too, and Europe will return to be free, democratic and Christian,” said the AfD poster featuring Yair Netanyahu.

Migration anxiety binds ‘difficult’ allies

The Bundestag is currently debating a new immigration law, which includes a provision for denying citizenship to people convicted of anti-Semitism. German Interior Minister Nancy Fraser announced the draft citizenship law on October 25, following a meeting with Israel’s ambassador to Germany, Ron Prosor.

Given the sweeping definition of anti-Semitism in Germany, the announcement had a chilling effect on free speech, with some German TV stations saying they were unable to get Arab guests on-air due to residency and job security anxieties.

“Right-wing politicians have called for making unconditional support for Israel a condition of living in Germany. Not surprisingly, the appeal is meant to apply to immigrants from Muslim countries. They are not going after far-right white German anti-Semites, even though official figures show most anti-Semitic crimes are conducted by right-wingers. Nonetheless all the focus is on so-called left-wing anti-Semitism, which means criticism of Israel,” explained Neiman.  “At a recent demonstration, police told demonstrators that the slogan ‘Stop the War’ cannot be spoken.”

Migrant anxieties can bring together difficult allies in Germany. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has called Israel a terror state and accused it of fascism, met with Scholz in Berlin on Friday.

Erdogan’s visit to Germany came despite calls by German opposition conservatives and even the liberal FDP, a member of Scholz’s coalition, urging the chancellor to scrap the invitation.

But the centre-left-led government said it was important to keep talking in the toughest of times. “We have always had difficult partners whom we have to deal with,” Scholz’s spokesman told reporters ahead of the visit.

Turkey signed a key 2016 deal with EU to alleviate the migrant influx, primarily from war-torn Syria. As the Gaza humanitarian crisis worsens, some European politicians have warned of a new round of displacements from the Middle East.

A ‘reason of state’ turns state of confusion

The 2016 migrant deal was struck by former German chancellor, Angela Merkel, who elevated Germany’s already close ties to Israel.

In a 2008 address to the Knesset marking the 60th anniversary of the founding of the Israeli state, Merkel declared that Israel’s security was part of Germany’s Staatsräson, or “reason of state”.

The declaration set experts scrambling to understand the meaning of the legal term and, more importantly, the implications of the new Staatsräson.

“Nobody sat down to discuss it, and nobody knows what it means. Does it mean Germany is going to send troops to the Golan? Of course not. It’s just a symbolic claim that no one feels they can question,” explained Neiman.

Feldman was left with the same feeling after her televised confrontation with Habeck, when she urged the vice-chancellor to provide a space for people to express their grief over Gaza and asked him to “decide between Israel and Jews” because the two were not interchangeable.

“He tried his best, responding that while he understood that my perspective was one of admirable moral clarity, he felt that it was not his place as a politician in Germany, in the country that committed the Holocaust, to adopt that position,” wrote Feldman in a Guardian column days later. “And so, at that moment, we arrived at a point in German discourse where we now openly acknowledge that the Holocaust is being used as justification for the abandonment of moral clarity.”

The acknowledgment though is unlikely to assure Turkey’s Muslim citizens and residents as the Bundestag debates an immigration bill that could kill their German dreams for expressing doubts about Berlin’s position on the bitterly divisive Israeli-Palestinian crisis.



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Establishment insider or political provocateur? Argentina faces stark presidential choice

Amid skyrocketing poverty and inflation, Argentinians face a stark choice on Sunday between two wildly different presidential candidates. Libertarian Javier Milei has led a disruptive campaign that has galvanised voters and won support from a faction of the traditional far-right. But a shock first-round victory for current Economy Minister Sergio Massa has set the scene for a down-to-the wire race in the final round of voting on Sunday.

As the results for the first round of voting were announced on October 22, cheers and hugs broke out in the campaign headquarters for government minister Massa.

Two months earlier Massa – who has overseen triple-digit inflation in Argentina – had achieved a mediocre result in the open primaries, which determined the first-round candidates. The economy minister brought in 27.3 percent of the vote, placing him third behind the leader of the far-right coalition Patricia Bullrich (28 percent) and first-round victor, political outsider and self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist” Milei (30 percent).

But, weeks later, the tables had turned dramatically. Massa, representing Union for the Homeland (UP), defied the polls and stormed to a spectacular first-round victory with 36 percent of the vote, pushing Milei into second place with 29.9 percent, and third-place Bullrich out of the race.

The return of Peronism

Political magazine Nueva Sociedad said the 51-year-old’s victory was a form of protest against his main opponent, writing “in the face of Javier Milei’s chaotic utopia, support for Massa ended up being a sort of defensive vote by a section of society”.

While Milei’s campaign was characterised by fiery outbursts and stunts such as wielding a chainsaw onstage, “Massa emerged as ‘the adult in the room’”, it said, “position[ing] himself as the only politician capable of managing the Argentine state. In short, he donned the suit that suits him best: that of a pragmatic politician”.

With an unexpected leap from 27.3 percent of the vote to 36 percent in just two months, Massa seems to have succeeded in convincing Argentinians worn out with incessant inflation that a Milei victory would mean a dangerous leap into the unknown both economically and democratically.

Positioning himself as the first line of defence against an opponent who wants to ditch the peso for the US dollar, privatise health and schooling and make it easier to buy guns and human organs has been no easy feat for Massa.

As the current economy minister, he is a figurehead for the unpopular outgoing administration, which has left Argentina in dire financial straits with poverty rates soaring and inflation jumping 143 percent.

Argentine congressman and presidential pre-candidate for La Libertad Avanza Alliance, Javier Milei (left) and and Argentine Economy Minister and presidential pre-candidate for the Union por la Patria party, Sergio Massa (right). © Alejandro Pagni, Luis Robayo, AFP

Crushing the right

Massa’s victory has also thrown Argentina’s political right into chaos.

Three days after being eliminated in the first-round vote, Bullrich, from center-right coalition Together for Change (JC), threw her support behind outsider Milei, urged on by former centre-right president Mauricio Macri.

“Javier Milei and I had our differences, that’s why we ran against each other,” she told the press. “However, we are faced with a dilemma: change or continue with mafia-style governance in Argentina. We must put an end to … the domination of corrupt populism which has led Argentina towards total decadence [of the Peronist government]. We have an obligation to not remain neutral.” 

In doing so, Bullrich, who formerly held the post of security minister, also re-endorsed one of the pillars of her own campaign: the “eradication” of Peronism, an Argentine political ideology embodied by the current government, including deeply unpopular vice-president and Massa supporter Christina Fernandez de Kirchner.

That evening, former rivals Bullrich and Milei shared a warm exchange on a television programme, while social media showed images of Milei as a lion holding Bullrich, depicted as a goose, in his clutches.

But other figures on the political right refused to follow Bullrich in endorsing Milei and accused ex-president Macri of having played into the far-right populist’s hands throughout the campaign.

Gerardo Morales, president of the Radical Civic Union (UCR) party, a longstanding part of the coalition on the right, called Milei a “puppet”, “emotionally unbalanced” and “a very dangerous figure for Argentine democracy”.

The implosion of the political right and the spectacular rise of Massa has redrawn the political landscape in Argentina and left its political class facing difficult questions.

Milei has denounced the right as a “parasitic political caste” – if it’s politicians were now to endorse the outsider candidate, would it help or harm his campaign?

“The problem of support is that it contributes to the dislocation, or at least the toning down, of Milei’s anti-system rhetoric,” said Gaspard Estrada, executive director of Sciences Po’s Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (OPALC).

“Before the first round, Milei criticised the political class,” he said. “The fact that, from one day to the next, he made an alliance with an establishment figure will dilute the strength of his message.”

But at the same time, there is “a real desire for change and to turn the tables” among Argentine voters, said FRANCE 24’s correspondent on the ground Mathilde Guillaume.

“Most poor workers that we have been speaking to in working-class neighbourhoods want to see change and Javier Milei has managed to channel that desire,” she said. “Support from Mauricio Macri, who is a favourite among the establishment, gives [Milei] a sheen of respectability and increases his chances of being elected.”

Controversy vs national pride?

Even so, the desire for change at any cost that many in Argentina are feeling often clashes with Milei’s radical ideology.

During a debate held between two rounds of voting the provocative candidate had warm words for an old Argentine adversary, ex-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who led Britain during the Falklands War.

Thatcher was “a great leader in the history of humanity,” Milei said.

Directly to Massa he added, “Thatcher had a significant role in the fall of the Berlin Wall and it seems that its fall and the crushing of the left bothers you. That’s your problem.”

“Yesterday, today and forever, Thatcher is an enemy of Argentina,” came Massa’s stinging response, reaffirming Argentine sovereignty of the Falklands, which Argentina claims as Islas Malvinas, and honouring the memory of the soldiers who lost their lives in the 1982 conflict.

Argentinian presidential candidates Sergio Massa and Javier Milei take part in a debate in Buenos Aires, Argentina on November 12, 2013.
Argentinian presidential candidates Sergio Massa and Javier Milei take part in a debate in Buenos Aires, Argentina on November 12, 2013. © Reuters Luis Robayo

Falklands war veterans have strongly criticised Milei’s proposals to open negotiations with the British government to bring the chain of South Atlantic islands back under Argentine jurisdiction.

Massa has also played on another source of national pride during his campaign, saying that he would be in favour of a visit to Argentina by Pope Francis, who was born in Buenos Aires.

In doing so Massa has made a direct appeal for the Catholic vote and further differentiated himself from Milei, who shocked some supporters when he said the Catholic leader was “representative of the evil one on Earth” and an “imbecile who defends social justice”.

If taking a provocative stance on Thatcher and the Pope may have harmed Milei’s standing with voters, his running mate, Victoria Villaruel, has done little to calm their fears.

As Argentina celebrates 40 years of democracy this year, Villaruel has been a staunch defender of military personnel convicted of active participation in the the country’s military dictatorship from 1976-1982.

Villaruel, a colonel’s daughter, is a long-term advocate of the “two demons theory”, which blames both the revolutionary left and the military dictatorship for political violence committed in the 1970s.

During a debate between the two vice-presidential candidates, Villaruel contested the widely accepted estimate that 30,000 people were disappeared by the military during the dictatorship as “a lie” propagated by the left.

The 2005 annulment of Argentina’s amnesty laws, which had previously blocked the prosecutions of crimes committed under the country’s military dictatorship, has never been called into question.

Read moreMy father, the war criminal: Children of Argentina’s dictatorship grapple with dark past

Villaruel’s adversary Agustín Rossi accused her of trying to destabilise Argentinian politics by “breaking the democratic pact that all political forces had concluded”.

But imprisoned military personnel convicted of crimes against humanity have expressed public support for the Milei-Villaruel ticket.

Change or continuity?

On Sunday, Argentina will make its choice between a libertarian provocateur with outlandish solutions to its economic crisis or a member of the political establishment who symbolises painful economic realities.

So far, opinion polls show Massa and Milei are neck-and-neck in a presidential race that is too close to call.

Awareness that Milei is using tactics similar to successful populists such as former US President Donald Trump and former Brazilian leader Jair Bolsonaro is no guarantee that Arentina “will avoid an extreme right government,” said Argentine historian Ezequiel Adamovsky.

It is extreme economic distress – for which Massa as minister for the economy holds responsibility – that has pushed Argentina to embrace Milei as an outsider candidate.

And it is Milei who has created a seemingly formidable opponent out of an unpopular establishment figure.

“Sergio Massa has not found himself in this position [of winning the first round] because of his own merits as a candidate, and even less so because of the merits of the government, but because of the enemy he faces,” said Adamovsky. “It takes two to tango, as the old proverb goes.”

This article has been adapted from the original in French.



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Germany hikes Ukraine military support, but is its defence-spending tilt tenable?

Germany, already Europe’s biggest supporter of Ukraine, has unveiled plans to double its military aid to Kyiv for 2024, while continuing to invest in its armed forces in order to become “the backbone of European defence”. It’s a strategy shift Berlin hopes to maintain over the long term, but counting on public support in a difficult economic context might make it hard to sustain.

As the Ukraine war grinds on, and with the Israel-Hamas war grabbing international attention, many Ukrainians fear that their existential struggle against Russia will be overlooked. The looming 2024 US election campaign is doing nothing to assuage their anxieties. But Kyiv can count on the support of Germany, which is set to double its military aid to Ukraine.

In an interview with German broadcaster ARD, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said the move sent a “strong signal to Ukraine that we will not leave them in the lurch”.

The Ukraine military aid hike from €4 billion to €8 billion would mean Germany’s annual budget allocation would be enough to last Ukraine the entire year, noted Pistorius. The budget boost, he told ARD, was a response to this year’s experience, “which showed that planned amounts were quickly exhausted” by Ukraine’s major military needs.

The €8 billion military aid announcement was a marked shift from Germany’s infamous “5,000 protective helmets” offering just weeks before Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year. It was a clear sign of a change in German policy, which was once considered a weak link in the Western response to Russian aggression due to its dependence on cheap Russian energy and its postwar commitment to pacifism. 

From weak link to ‘backbone’ of European defence

Back in January 2022, when Ukraine, faced with an imminent invasion, turned to NATO for military help, the US and UK immediately agreed to provide Kyiv with defensive weapons.

When Germany, Europe’s largest economy, offered just 5,000 protective helmets, it was the subject of much scorn across Ukraine, prompting Kyiv’s mayor to publicly ask if the next delivery would be pillows.

“Military aid to Ukraine gave rise to a particularly difficult debate in Germany, for both historical and economic reasons,” noted Éric-André Martin from the Paris-based French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). “Not only is it the country’s policy not to supply arms to a country at war, but German officials were also very uncomfortable with the idea of opposing Russia, which supplied them with 50% of their gas.” 

Read moreSchroeder’s Russia ties cast a shadow over Scholz’s trip to Moscow

A year after the helmet affair, Christine Lambrecht from Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) resigned as Germany’s defence minister. Her New Year’s Eve address, when she said the Russian invasion gave her the chance for “many encounters with great and interesting people” was one gaffe too many, undermining Germany’s credibility on the international stage.

Then came the controversy surrounding the delivery of German Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Just as Kyiv was putting up a valiant offensive against its giant invader, Germany not only refused to supply the much-needed tanks, it opposed re-exporting tanks purchased by its allies to Ukraine.

Finally, after Scholz visited Washington and convinced US President Joe Biden to send American Abrams tanks, the German chancellor yielded to pressure. In a January 25, 2023 speech to parliament, Scholz announced that Germany would be sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

Read moreUK offers tanks in Ukraine’s hour of need, but will Germany follow suit?

“Germany was not the only European country afraid of adding fuel to the fire by delivering advanced military equipment to Ukraine to fight Russia. But it is true that for a long time it was particularly cautious,” said Gaspard Schnitzler, research director at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS).

“This difficulty in making decisions is linked to Germany’s political configuration,” said Schnitzler, noting that Scholz’s governing coalition includes three political parties “with very different perspectives, to a policy of drastic export controls, and also to the German constitution, adopted after the Second World War to avoid a concentration of power. Decisions are taken collegially, and therefore take longer to reach, which was difficult for its partners to understand. But it can also be argued that once they are made, they are more definitive.”

Almost two years after the start of the war, Germany has gradually emerged as Kyiv’s leading military supporter in Europe. According to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine support tracker, Berlin has committed over €17.1 billion in military aid to Ukraine since January 24, 2022. This is certainly not on a par with Washington’s €42 billion, but it is more than twice the UK’s investment (7 billion) and 34 times that of France.

This investment has increased considerably over the past year, with the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks, Gepard air defence systems and shells.

“Today, Germany wants to be exemplary in its support for Ukraine, to make up for its hesitations at the start of the war, but also its policy of economic openness towards Russia. The signing of the Nord Stream II gas pipeline after the [2014] annexation of Crimea was very badly received by Ukraine, the Baltic States and Poland,” explained Schnitzler.

Bundeswehr on the rise

For Germany, this massive support for Ukraine is first and foremost a question of national security. Realising the scale of the threat to its own security posed by Russia’s conquest of Ukraine, Berlin began a radical military rearmament shift soon after the war erupted, breaking with decades of underinvestment.

After a February 2022 announcement of a special fund of €100 billion over five years to modernise the Bundeswehr, the German armed forces, Berlin adopted its first-ever “National Security Strategy” in June. On November 9, Pistorius unveiled his defence policy guidelines, promising to make Germany “the backbone of deterrence and collective defence in Europe”.

“The amount announced may seem very substantial, but it’s important to understand that this is above all a catch-up investment,” stressed Martin.

“Germany was well below NATO’s commitments, which set defence spending at 2% of GDP. It was something of a freeloader in its contribution to European defence. In the name of budgetary stability, it shifted the burden to other members of the Alliance, and in particular the US, which led to sharp tensions with Donald Trump,” Martin added.

With this strategic turnaround, Berlin intends to transform its defence policy for the long term. The aim is to reassure the US, and to offer a hierarchical military framework within NATO into which European countries with fewer resources can integrate their battalions.

A change of gear in times of crisis

According to Pistorius, Germany’s status as Europe’s largest economy gives it a special “responsibility” to defend the bloc, which it now intends to assume.

However, this ambitious transformation comes at a time of economic turbulence. Germany, which had based its energy strategy on supplies of cheap Russian gas, is in the front line of the inflationary crisis that has hit the continent since the outbreak of the Ukraine war and the introduction of sanctions against Moscow.

“The country relied on Russian energy to implement its transition to renewables. Now it has to source its energy elsewhere, and at a much higher cost. Add to this the slow pace of industrial transition, as Germany has invested little in electric vehicles, and its automotive sector is losing competitiveness to the Chinese,” explained Martin.

Against this backdrop, at the beginning of October, the IMF revised its forecasts for the German economy’s contraction, now predicting a drop in GDP of -0.5% versus the previous -0.3% for 2023, by far the worst annual performance of the bloc’s economies.

“The special fund of €100 billion over five years to finance the army pales in comparison with Germany’s GDP of €4,000 billion. The same applies to the envelope dedicated to Ukraine support. But the difficulty is that for these investments to be effective, they must be sustained over time,” said Martin. “If the economic difficulties persist and have too heavy an impact on German households, the government could be forced to reassess its budgetary choices.”

“The Russian invasion has broken the taboo on the issue of national defence in Germany,” said Schnitzler. “The vast majority of Germans are in favour of supporting Ukraine, despite the cost, and are now aware of the importance of strengthening their army.”

Schnitzler nevertheless believes that, despite favourable public opinion, several questions about Berlin’s ability to maintain this policy persist.

“We’re still feeling our way around the financing of German rearmament. To be sustainable, these investments need to be gradually shifted to the defence budget, but for the time being everything is still based on the special €100 billion fund.

Finally, it’s hard to predict what will happen to this policy once the war in Ukraine is over. Once the immediate threat has been averted, it’s always harder to justify high levels of military spending to the public.

This article has been translated from the original in French.

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Taiwan set to dominate talks as Xi meets Biden in San Francisco

Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet US counterpart Joe Biden in San Francisco on Wednesday for the two leaders’ first face-to-face meeting following a turbulent 12 months for US-China relations. Taiwan, a long-term source of disagreement between the two nations, is expected to top the agenda.

The two heads of state will meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in the Californian city, their first encounter since a meeting on November 14th 2022, in Bali.  

Positive momentum following the G20 summit was swiftly derailed by various spats that brought relations between the US and China to their lowest level in years.  

The US shot down an alleged Chinese spy balloon over its territory in February 2023, an incursion the US described as “unacceptable”.  

China said US accusations amounted to “information warfare”, and delayed a planned visit to the People’s Republic by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. 

A cumulation of trade tensions and sanctions also contributed to bring relations to their lowest points in decades before a flurry of high-level diplomacy, including Blinken’s eventual trip to Beijing in June, signalled ambitions on both sides to mend ties. 

Wednesday’s meeting is likely being seen as an opportunity to “calm relations, to not inflame things further in context full of difficult and tense and inflamed issues,” says Astrid Nordin, Lau Chair of Chinese International Relations at King’s College London. 

“We’re not trying to decouple from China. What we’re trying to do is change the relationship for the better,” Biden told reporters at the White House on Tuesday, shortly before heading to San Francisco.

Semiconductors, climate agreements, and fentanyl trafficking are all expected to be on the agenda for the talks. “But from Beijing’s perspective, the most important issue in the US-China relationship will be over Taiwan,” Nordin says. 

Taiwan is critically important in the relationship between China and the USA because of its geostrategic location and its symbolism,” adds Steve Tsang, Director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London.  

Symbolism, geopolitics 

Taiwan will take part in this week’s APEC forum under the name “Chinese Taipei”. While the island’s democratically elected leadership maintains it is an independent country, China claims it as a province of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). 

In the past year and a half, Taiwan has faced increased military pressure from Beijing, raising fears China intends to fulfil its ambition to “unify” Taiwan with the mainland and using force if necessary. 

Read moreMore than 100 Chinese warplanes and nine navy ships spotted around Taiwan

 

At the same time, the US has bolstered its support for Taiwan with a high-profile visit from US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August 2022 and by increasing its capacity to buy US weapons

Taiwan matters to the US as a “symbolic issue of providing support for a democratic ally in the face of potential hostile invasion”, says Nordin. “A US president would not want to be the person who stands aside and just looks on if that happens.” 

Biden has been more outspoken than his predecessor in his rhetorical support for Taiwan and its self-governance. 

The island is also geographically significant for the US with a strategically advantageous position off the Pacific coast of China, linking in alliances with nearby Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.  

For China, the stakes are also high. Reintegration of Taiwan into the PRC is a question of national identity, unity and security. 

Historically, China considers Taiwan not only part of China but also part of its “First Island Chain” – a first line of defence off the Pacific coast, “the taking of which will not only secure China’s Eastern Seaboard but also enable the Chinese navy and air force to project power into the Pacific”, says Tsang. 

In recent years, “Xi Jinping has been more explicit than previous generations of leadership that he does not want to leave the status quo [in Taiwan] for the next generation,” says Nordin. 

‘Getting back on a normal course’

For decades, China has shown little appetite for military intervention in Taiwan, instead proposing that it be integrated into the PRC under a “one country, two systems” formula, that was used for Hong Kong. 

The US has also found ways to appease both China and Taiwan: it recognises Beijing as the government of China and doesn’t have diplomatic relations with Taiwan under the “One China” policy.  

At the same time it has a “robust unofficial relationship” with Taiwan and has pledged military support under the Taiwan Relations Act were the island’s security to come under threat.   

As such, forced unity with Taiwan “can only happen if China can either deter the US from interfering or defeat the US forces sent to help Taiwan defend itself”, says Tsang.  

Either scenario would mean that China had “devastated the US’s credibility in the Asian Pacific”, he adds.  

So, what hope for compromise when the two leaders meet on Wednesday? 

“Neither party will yield to the other on Taiwan,” Tsang says. “The best any US president or Chinese supreme leader can do over Taiwan is to ease tensions by making noises that enable the other side to turn the temperature down.”   

But the fact that the leaders are meeting at all is a sign of political will to reduce the heat after a tumultuous 12 months.  

“There’s been a lot of work going on over summer in preparation for this meeting and the fact that it is now culminating in face-to-face talks might be a sign that there has been some stabilisation in the US-China relationship” adds Nordin.  

Asked what he hoped to achieve at the meeting, Biden said he wanted “to get back on a normal course of corresponding; being able to pick up the phone and talk to one another if there’s a crisis; being able to make sure our military still have contact with one another”.

Despite positive noises, any agreement on a way forward in Taiwan is, Nordin says, “highly unlikely”.  

“But what there might be is a de-escalation in rhetoric and scope for both nudging closer to a stabilisation of the status quo. The absence of worsening, perhaps, is something to aspire to in this scenario.” 

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How Ukraine’s secret agents re-learned the art of shadow warfare

New revelations in the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline in September 2022 have strengthened the case for Kyiv’s involvement, with a controversial Ukrainian secret agent alleged to have been the brains behind the operation. Although Kyiv continues to deny responsibility, there is little doubt that the Ukrainian intelligence services are playing a very special role in the war against Russia.

New “proof” of Ukrainian involvement in the sabotage of the Nord Stream I and II natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea was published by the Washington Post and German magazine Der Spiegel on Saturday November 11. The two publications claimed to have identified the Ukrainian “mastermind” behind the explosive operation.

Roman Chervinsky, a veteran Ukrainian spy, is alleged to have “coordinated” the team of six saboteurs suspected of setting off explosive charges near the Nord Stream pipelines on September 26, 2022, several sources – “both Ukrainian and among the international teams of security experts connected to this case” – told the two publications, according to Der Spiegel.

‘Hothead’ or ‘patriot’? 

This 48-year-old expert in “clandestine actions” was a controversial figure even before his name came up in the pipeline affair. Chervinsky has been in pre-trial detention in Kyiv since April 2023, awaiting trial for his involvement in a high-risk operation that ended in disaster for Ukraine’s intelligence services.

Chervinsky is accused of having attempted to recruit a Russian pilot in the summer of 2022 amid a broader campaign to lure potential defectors. It soon became clear that the pilot remained only too loyal to Moscow. Instead of flying to Ukraine as promised, he apparently provided the coordinates of a military airport to the Russians, who wasted no time in bombing it. At that time, Chervinsky had joined the Ukrainian army’s ‘special forces’, specialists in intelligence and sabotage operations.

Read moreNord Stream 2: Russia-Germany gas pipeline becomes a geopolitical lever

This failure pushed the Ukrainian authorities to distance themselves from their spy, claiming that he had gone off on his own and exceeded his prerogatives. Since then, Chervinsky has been seen by some Ukrainians as a “risk-taker” who endangers national security. His defenders, however, hail him as a “great patriot” who pulled off one of the Ukraininan intelligence services’ greatest coups in 2019 after he had succeeded in capturing a “Russian witness” supposedly in possession of evidence showing Russian involvement in the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in the skies over the Donbas in 2014.

When contacted for comment by the Washington Post and Der Spiegel, Chervinsky, speaking through his lawyers, accused “Russian propaganda” of trying to frame him for the Nord Stream sabotage. Kyiv, for its part, refused to comment on the “revelations” published by the two Western media outlets.

These new developments are a reminder that behind the trench warfare taking place in Ukraine, a shadow war is also being fought between the countries’ intelligence services. Because, notwithstanding the imbroglio behind Chervinsky’s alleged involvement, the fact remains that, faced with the vast Russian spy machine, Ukraine’s secret agents “have shown themselves to be up to the task”, according to Jeff Hawn, an expert on Russian security issues and a non-resident fellow at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, a think-tank based in Washington, DC. 

“Their actions have a strategic impact on the course of the conflict,” he said.

Soviet Union’s long shadow

Hawn said that the Ukrainian intelligence services seemed to have come a long way since their dark days following the fall of the Soviet Union.

“Before 2014, they were really kind of a joke,” he said. “The SBU [Security Service of Ukraine] was used to spy on political enemies – and was corrupt.”

These criticisms apply equally to the two main intelligence agencies, the SBU, the counter-espionage service that reports to the interior ministry, and the GUR, the military intelligence agency, he said.

After the pro-European Maidan revolution in 2014 and Kyiv’s geopolitical slide to the West, the situation changed. The wave of state modernisation that swept the country has not left the intelligence services behind, even if their Soviet heritage – Ukraine had been the KGB’s second-most important centre of operations in the former Soviet republics – has made the task all the more difficult.

One of the main innovations of the past decade has been the addition of a third branch to Ukraine’s burgeoning espionage. In 2016, the army created its own agency, the Special Operations Forces (SSO), supposed to be made up of elite fighters.

Chervinsky’s career shows the extent to which the three services can step on each other’s toes. As Der Spiegel points out, the spy held similar positions in both the SUB and the GUR before joining the special forces.

Psychological games

Since Russia’s full-scale offensive in February 2022, the operations attributed to Ukrainian agents have shown a mode of operations inspired by Western methods combined “with an almost suicidal approach reminiscent of what KGB agents were ready to do to fulfill their mission”, said Jenny Mathers, a specialist in Russian intelligence services at Aberystwyth University in Wales.

For her, the most surprising operation was the August 2022 assassination of Daria Dugina, the daughter of ultranationalist ideologue Alexander Dugin, which the US believes to have been the work of Ukrainian agents.

“It’s kind of a strange use of precious resources to go after someone like Dugina, who isn’t a prime war target per se,” Mathers said.

At first glance, the sabotage operations launched against the Crimean Bridge and the assassination on Russian soil of submarine commander Vladislav Rzhitsky in July 2023, who was accused of having ordered a missile strike on a Ukrainian town that saw more than 20 civilian deaths, seem to be more in line with the war’s objectives.

But “the big picture seems to be that they are dividing their resources between targets that clearly disrupt the war effort … and other targets with a less direct goal”, Mathers said.

“It’s more about demonstrations of force, showing that they can hit close to Putin’s inner circle. A bit of a psychological game with Russia,” she said.

The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline could be a part of this same logic: proving that the Ukrainian secret services can hit Russian interests, no matter where.

For Mathers, it is still too early to evaluate the impact of all these operations on the course of the conflict. But even if “it won’t be decisive, like a tank breaking the defense line, it will have a strategic effect”, Hawn said: Ukraine’s spies are a constant irritant for the Russians, never letting them forget that the war is also being fought far from the front lines.

This article has been adapted from the original in French.

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French doctors vow to ‘disobey’ bill stripping undocumented migrants of healthcare rights

A push by France’s conservative-led Senate to strip undocumented migrants of their access to free healthcare has sparked a public outcry among workers across the medical profession, many of whom have pledged to ignore a measure they describe as an ethical, sanitary and financial aberration.

Medical practitioners voiced their dismay in a flurry of media statements after senators from the right-wing Les Républicains amended a government-sponsored immigration bill last week to axe a scheme known as State Medical Aid (AME) – which provides free healthcare to undocumented migrants who have settled in France.

The amended bill, which will be examined by the National Assembly next month, was swiftly panned by health officials, who warned that it would present a threat to public health and that long-term costs would far exceed any initial savings.

The head of the Paris hospital consortium AP-HP said scrapping the AME would allow diseases to spread undected and ultimately increase the burden on France’s health system. The Federation of French Hospitals (FHF) described it as “humanitarian, sanitary and financial heresy”.

On Saturday, some 3,500 health workers signed a letter pledging to “continue to treat undocumented patients free of charge and based on their needs, in accordance with the Hippocratic Oath” they took. “Patients from here and elsewhere, our doors are open to you. And will remain so,” they added.

That would effectively mean working for free, said Antoine Pelissolo, a psychiatrist at a hospital east of Paris who co-authored the letter. “If they see a patient who is not covered (by health insurance), they will not be paid,” Pelissolo told AFP. “It’s a very strong stand.”

‘Guided by ideology rather than medical concern’

Set up in 2000, the AME gives undocumented migrants access to the free healthcare provided under France’s health insurance scheme. Beneficiaries must prove they have resided in France for at least three months and have a monthly income of less than €810 ($860).


The scheme has long been a favourite punching bag for critics on the right and far right, who accuse it of inciting illegal immigration – at a growing cost to French taxpayers.  

Last year, the AME counted 411,364 beneficiaries for a total cost of €1.2 billion, up from €900 million in 2018, according to the Inspection Générale des Affaires Sociales (IGAS), a government auditor.  

During debates in the Senate last week, Bruno Retailleau, the head of Les Républicains’ delegation, flagged the “steady increase in recent years, both in the number of AME beneficiaries and its total cost”. He added: “It is only natural that we look for ways to cut certain costs.”

In its amended bill, Retailleau’s party replaced the scheme with a more restrictive “emergency medical assistance” (AMU), which would cover only cases of “severe illness and acute pain”.

Read moreUndocumented workers left in limbo as French immigration bill delayed

The move betrays a sketchy understanding of healthcare, said Professor Pierre Tattevin, the deputy head of the French Infectious Diseases Society (SPILF), noting that the aim for medical workers is precisely to treat diseases before they become severe and acutely painful.

“It’s called prevention: if you treat something early, it will cost you less in the long run,” he explained, arguing that the debate over AME was “guided by ideology rather than medical concern”.

Cost of reform set to outweigh savings

While AME spending has increased in recent years, in line with immigration numbers, it still accounts for just 0.5% of France’s public health spending. According to an IGAS report from 2019, the scheme’s beneficiaries have lower healthcare costs than the general public, averaging around €2,600 per year – against a national average of roughly €3,000.

“The idea that AME costs us money is completely misguided,” said Tattevin. “Scrapping it would cost us a lot dearer than any savings it might generate.”

Earlier this month, some 3,000 health workers signed an op-ed in Le Monde warning that AME’s abolition “would lead to a deterioration in the health of undocumented workers, and more generally that of the population as a whole”.

 


Signatories included Françoise Barré-Sinoussi, the 2008 Nobel Prize laureate who helped discover HIV/AIDS, and Jean-François Delfraissy, the head of the scientific council that advised the French government during the Covid-19 pandemic.

They pointed to a recent precedent in Spain, where a 2012 law “restricting access to healthcare for illegal immigrants led to an increase in the incidence of infectious diseases and higher mortality rates”. The reform was finally repealed in 2018.

“If you bar part of the population from access to care, it will necessarily have repercussions,” said Tattevin, who also signed the Le Monde op-ed. “It could take months or years to show, but we would end up with hidden epidemics that eventually affect the wider public too,” he added.

A negotiating ploy?

Experts have largely debunked another criticism levelled at State Medical Aid: that its purported generosity induces migrants to choose France over other destinations.

In 2019, France’s former Human Rights Ombudsman, Jacques Toubon, lamented the “false idea that the ‘generosity’ of a scheme such as the AME would lead to an increase in illegal migratory flows by creating a ‘pull effect’”. Instead, he argued, “studies show that the need for care is a completely marginal cause of immigration”.

A 2022 study by France’s National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) found that fewer than 10% of France’s undocumented migrants cited healthcare as a factor in their decision to move to the country. A separate survey by the IRDES healthcare research institute found that only half of those eligible for AME actually benefit from the scheme, owing to administrative obstacles and a lack of information.

Read moreMost migrants eligible for French state medical aid have not accessed their rights

Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne echoed Toubon’s words in a speech to the National Assembly in December 2022, aiming to “dispel misconceptions” about AME.

“No, state medical aid does not fuel illegal immigration. It’s a question of protection and public health,” she told lawmakers at the time. “No plans to migrate to France are motivated solely by the existence of this scheme.”

While Borne reiterated her stance last week, France’s hardline Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, the immigration bill’s chief sponsor, has previously voiced support for a reform of AME in a bid to win over support from the right – only to backtrack in recent days.

On Sunday, Health Minister Aurélien Rousseau pledged to defend the scheme, saying he “understood” the doctors’ complaints. “The government will fight to ensure that they do not have to exercise civil disobedience,” he told France Info radio.

“One has the impression that it’s all part of a negotiation, that EMA’s abolition has been thrown in the mix only to be removed at the last minute,” said Tattevin. “That way they can say they’re open to compromise and argue that their law isn’t as harsh as critics say.”

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Could exiled former Palestinian leader Mohammed Dahlan lead Gaza after the Israel-Hamas war?

The former leader of Fatah in Gaza, Mohammed Dahlan, has been living in exile in the United Arab Emirates for the past 10 years, where he has become a successful businessman. Born in the Palestinian coastal enclave, Dahlan is a powerful financial force in Gaza and an influential figure in the wider region – if Hamas fell, could he return to power?

Gaza’s former strongman Mohammed Dahlan has now spent more than a decade in exile in the UAE but rather than fade from the spotlight, he has amassed a new kind of power as a businessman and adviser to President Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan.  

Despite his long absence from the Palestinian Territories, Dahlan is still thought of as a potential leader in Gaza – if Hamas were removed from power. 

“Mohammed Dahlan is from Gaza and is one of the heroes of the first intifada [the Palestinian uprising aimed at ending Israeli occupation in Gaza and the West Bank in 1987 to 1993],” said FRANCE 24’s correspondent in Israel, Stéphane Amar. 

“He has support from Israel and support from the United States – but the question is whether he will be able to impose his power. There are multiple options on the table if Israel were to succeed in ousting Hamas from the Gaza Strip.” 

“Dahlan is compatible with Israel,” added Frédéric Encel, professor at Sciences Po in Paris and specialist in the geopolitics of the Middle East. “He was one of the first [Palestinian leaders] to accept the two-state solution and to stop calls for violence.” 

Dahlan was involved in negotiating the Oslo Accords in 1993 – an aborted peace settlement between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization – and attended talks with Israel while he held positions in the security services. 

But his relationship with Israel did not please all Palestinians, Encel said, and the former leader never attained the popularity of figureheads such as Marwan Barghouti – dubbed “the Mandela of Palestine”. 

Barghouti (ex-leader of Tanzim, the paramilitary faction of Fatah founded by Yasser Arafat in 1995) has been imprisoned in Israel for more than 20 years, serving several life sentences after being convicted of masterminding suicide bombings in Israel. 

Read moreCan Marwan Barghouti, the ‘Palestinian Mandela’, bring peace to Gaza?

Allies and enemies 

Dahlan also spent a large part of the 1980s in Israeli prisons, being arrested 11 times for his leading role in a Palestinian political party, Fatah. While in prison in Israel, he learned to speak fluent Hebrew, according to The Economist, which ran an interview with the former leader in October.  

Even if Dahlan does not have the public profile of Barghouti, he possesses other tactical assets, notably his contacts on all sides of the conflict. 

Born in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, he grew up alongside many current Hamas leaders before becoming a fierce opponent of the Palestinian Islamist movement. As head of Gaza’s preventive security force (1994-2002), he was accused of torturing Hamas members. 

He has a similarly complex relationship with Fatah. Dahlan was the Palestinian Authority’s security adviser when it lost control of the Gaza Strip to Hamas in 2007. Formerly a leading figure in the movement, he faced opposition from within the party, especially from the inner circle of Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas

Abbas ordered Dahlan into exile in 2011 after making various accusations against the Gazan politician including embezzlement and plotting an internal coup against Abbas, which Dahlan denied.  

Dahlan was convicted in absentia on corruption charges by a Palestinian court in 2016. 

Read moreCan the Palestinian Authority lead a post-Hamas Gaza Strip?

An influential network 

In exile in the United Arab Emirates, Dahlan reinvented himself as a successful businessman, building an impressive international network of friends in high places. He has found a role as the protégé of the ruler of Abu Dhabi, whom he has known since 1993, and who has presented Dahlan in public as his “brother”.   

During his time in the UAE, Dahlan has also forged a relationship with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi over a shared enemy: the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist group of which Hamas is the outgrowth and Palestinian branch. 

“The Emirates turned Dahlan into their sub-contractor in the fight against the Muslim Brotherhood,” an anonymous source told a Palestinian journalist for Le Monde in 2017. “Of all the second-generation Palestinian leaders, [Dahlan] is the one that has the most contacts in high places in the region. He has built a far-reaching network.”

The French newspaper revealed in its article that the Palestinian politician has become the holder of a Serbian passport gifted by Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic for Dahlan’s “good services” after the UAE landed lucrative contracts in the Balkan country.  

Le Monde suggested than Dahlan may also have played a role in the possible delivery of Emirati arms acquired in the Balkans for military strongman Khalifa Haftar, whose forces dominate eastern Libya. 

$50 million per year for Gaza 

Thanks to the patronage he has received in the UAE, Dahlan has also developed a business portfolio that allows him to distribute extensive aid within Gaza.  

He claimed to have sent around $50 million annually from the UAE to Gaza in his interview with The Economist, and to have set up a support network for refugee camps in the West Bank. 

Dahlan’s good relations with Egypt have enabled significant crossings at the Rafah border, such as in 2015 when Egyptian authorities allowed his wife Jalila to enter Gaza with suitcases filled with cash for a UAE-funded mass wedding for couples in financial need. 

In recent years, Dahlan has used UAE funds to distribute food, student loans and unemployment support in Gaza, as well as delivering thousands of Covid vaccines in 2021 – more than the Palestinian Authority itself. 

New Palestinian leadership 

Even though he lives overseas, Dahlan remains a powerful figure in Gaza. The UAE is also influential and will have a significant role to play when the time comes to rebuild Gaza, Encel said. 

“If Hamas is defeated, it is not Qatar – which has close ties to the Islamist group – that will rebuild Gaza. Abu Dhabi holds one of the keys, and if Hamas is destroyed it will have a say in who the successor is,” Encel said. 

Despite hinting in the past that he could run for Palestinian leadership, Dahlan denied he wanted the role when asked by The Economist in October. 

Instead, he advised “a two-year transitional period with an administration run by technocrats in Gaza and the West Bank” to reunify Palestine, followed by parliamentary elections open to all parties including Hamas. 

“Hamas will not disappear,” he said, adding that even after the war governance in Gaza would require working with the militant group. 

A newly elected government could be supported by Arab states such as Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but would also need to be supported by the wider international community, including Israel, he said. 

Dahlan remained optimistic such a solution was possible, saying the past month of fighting had reignited discussion around the Palestinian cause, ending a period of “zero hope”. 

Even so, his vision for the Palestinian Territories clashes directly with that put forward by Israel. 

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu told US network ABC on November 6 that Israel planned to maintain security responsibility in Gaza “for an indefinite period”. 

“We’ve seen what happens when we don’t have it,” Netanyahu said. “When we don’t have that security responsibility what we have is the eruption of Hamas terror on a scale that we couldn’t imagine.” 

This article is an adaptation of the original in French.



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Australia offers refuge to Tuvaluans as rising sea levels threaten Pacific archipelago

As sea levels continue to rise due to global warming, Tuvalu, a small archipelago in the Pacific, is seeing its territory disappear underwater, threatening the survival of its more than 11,000 inhabitants. A new treaty with Australia, however, will soon allow Tuvaluans to move to the largest country in Oceania, whose greenhouse gas emissions are partly responsible for the islanders’ plight.  

Canberra announced on Friday that it is offering climate refuge to Tuvaluans, unveiling the terms of a pact that would enable citizens of the 26-square kilometre archipelago – the fourth smallest state in the world – to move to Australia to “live, study and work”. 

Located near the Equator, the island nation of Tuvalu is comprised of nine reef islands and atolls that rise an average of only two metres above sea level. Due to rising sea levels driven by climate change, the low-lying land is forecast to be submerged by Pacific waters by the end of the century. 

The new pact between Australia and Tuvalu, signed by prime ministers Anthony Albanese and Kausea Natano, has been described as “groundbreaking ” by University of New South Wales professor and refugee law expert Jane McAdam. 

“It’s the first agreement to specifically deal with climate-related mobility,” McAdam said. 

Natano hailed the agreement as a ” beacon of hope” for his nation. 

According to the pact, which will have to be ratified by both countries before coming into effect, Tuvaluan refugees will have access to education and healthcare, as well as financial and family support in Australia. 

To avoid a damaging “brain drain”, the number of Tuvaluans able to move to Australia will initially be capped at 280 per year. 

Climate migrants 

Australia’s offer to host its South Pacific neighbours marks a new step towards the recognition of climate change refugees. 

In previous years, Tuvaluans and people from other Pacific islands seeking asylum in nearby countries such as New Zealand have seen their requests rejected, as climate change is not recognised as a basis for obtaining refugee status by the 1951 Refugee Convention

Even the term “climate refugee” has no legal definition and is not endorsed by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) meanwhile defines “the movement of a person or groups of persons who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment due to climate change, are obliged to leave their habitual place of residence, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, within a State or across an international border,” as “climate migration”.   

This could be applied to the entire Tuvaluan population which is currently threatened by the consequences of climate change. As the archipelago’s shorelines continue to recede, its inhabitants could eventually all be driven from their homes and become some of the world’s first climate migrants.  

Foretold threat 

Many have already warned against the climate challenges that Tuvaluans currently face. 

Fanny Héros, a project officer and scientific journalist in French climate action association Alofa Tuvalu, warned back in 2008 that “the inhabitants of Tuvalu will become the world’s first climate refugees“. 

In 2009, then Tuvaluan prime minister Apisai Ielemia said his archipelago was threatened by rising sea levels due in part to global warming caused by human activity, at the Copenhagen Summit. 

Tuvalu sounded the alarm once again in November 2021 at COP26 in Glasgow.  

“Climate change and sea level rise are deadly and existential threats to Tuvalu and low-lying island atoll countries,” Tuvalu’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Simon Kofe said in a video statement, standing knee-deep in water. 

“We are sinking, but so is everyone else,” he said.  

“No matter if we feel the impacts today like in Tuvalu, or in a hundred years, we will all still feel the dire effects of this global crisis one day,” Kofe said. 


Tuvalu’s top diplomat delivered the same message again the following year, at COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, as he urged the international community to act swiftly to stop the devastating effects of global warming on the archipelago. 

The Tuvaluan government announced earlier this year the creation of a digital version of its territory, “The First Digital Nation“, to raise awareness of the island nation’s plight, and to allow it to continue to exist as a state even after all of its land has been submerged.

“We want to be able to take a snapshot of what culture is today, and allow my children and grandchildren to have that same experience wherever they are in the world,” Kofe said in an interview with nonprofit organisation Long Now.

“So even if the physical territory is lost, we would never lose the knowledge, culture, and way of life that Tuvaluans have experienced and lived for many centuries,” he said. 


According to the latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), sea levels have risen by around 23 centimetres since 1880. This increase has accelerated steadily over the past quarter-century, to the extent that sea levels are predicted to rise by an additional 30 cm by 2050, and 77 cm by 2100. 

This means that half of Tuvalu’s territory, which has already lost two coral reefs to rising sea levels, would be underwater by 2050. And by 2100, the archipelago would be wiped off the map. 

This combination picture shows at top a Tuvaluan house, perched over an empty “borrow pit” dug by US forces during World War II in order to build the airstrip on Funafuti Atoll, home to nearly half of Tuvalu’s population of more than 11,000, on February 22, 2004, and the same house flooded at high tide. © Torsten Blackwood, AFP

And yet, shrinking land mass is not the only challenge that Tuvalu faces. 

Tuvalu’s capital, Funafuti, has also witnessed severe drought, water shortages and contaminated groundwater due to rising sea levels. The difficult climate-related conditions have subsequently translated into widespread malnutrition and displacement on the archipelago. 

‘Good neighbourliness’

“Australia and Tuvalu are family. And today we are elevating our relationship to a more integrated and comprehensive partnership,” Albanese said in a tweet on social media platform X on Friday as he announced the inking of the pact baptised ‘Falepili Union’ with Natano. 

“Falepili is a Tuvaluan word for the traditional values of good neighbourliness, care and mutual respect. Put simply, it means being a good neighbour,” Albanese said. 


The two countries will work together on “climate adaptation, work arrangements and security” in a new partnership which “recognises climate change as the single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security and wellbeing of the peoples of Tuvalu”, he added. 

While some lauded the new pact, others pointed out the irony as they highlighted Australia’s share of responsibility for global warming. 

“Australia helping the people of Tuvalu who are suffering from the effects of climate change. The same Australia that has undermined every international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and is behind many environmentally disastrous projects,” one user said in a tweet. 

Another quipped: “[The] bloody magnanimity of the hero [Albanese] who will throw Tuvalu a lifeline if the island succumbs to the effects of climate change, all the while continuing to sell coal and gas to countries like China and India”. 

Australia’s economic reliance on coal and gas exports has long been a point of friction with its many Pacific neighbours, who face massive economic and social costs from wilder weather and rising sea levels. 

While Australia contributed just over one percent of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions in 2020, it is one of the world’s top exporters of coal which remains largely responsible for global warming. 

According to Geoscience Australia, the country was in 2021 the world’s largest exporter of liquid natural gas (LNG), another cause of rising global average temperatures. 

Albanese said developed nations needed to start shouldering more responsibility as developing countries bore the brunt of the climate crisis. 

Tuvalu is far from being the only island nation threatened by climate change: others such as the Maldives (Indian Ocean), Kiribati (Polynesia), the Marshall Islands and Nauru (Oceania) are also becoming increasingly vulnerable in the face of rising sea levels and multiplying natural disasters, a result of global warming. 

(with AFP)

This article has been adapted from the original in French



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‘Like Waze, but for toilets’: The start-up hoping to solve Paris’s public urination problem

A new application that rewards businesses for making their toilets accessible to the public and helps users to find them is being rolled out in a Paris suburb. If everything goes to plan, the ICI Toilettes app could make its way into the capital – right in time for the Olympics. 

Public urination is high on the list of critiques of the French capital, along with rats, noise, and people not picking up their dogs’ business. Referred to in France as le pipi sauvage, or “wild peeing”, the propensity for public urination – which is technically illegal and mainly male – is explained by many factors, though a lack of available public toilets is a fundamental one. 

Over the years, Parisian leaders have proposed a number of innovative solutions but, so far, to no avail. In 2018, for instance, certain arrondissements (districts) introduced bright red, eco-friendly uritrottoirs, public installations whose name was a portmanteau of the French words for “urinal” and “sidewalk”. They were criticised for being too visible and only useful for men, and then vandalised by protesters.

The newest scheme to combat the ongoing problem comes from a start-up from the western city of Nantes called Urban Services.

ICI Toilettes (“Toilets HERE”) has two main functions. First, it is a geolocation application that helps users locate public toilets and allows them to update the status of the facility if it is in disrepair. This helps members of the public find the closest functional bathroom in real time and keeps local authorities informed about the state of the city’s sanitation infrastructure.

“It’s like Waze, but for toilets,” says founder and Urban Services CEO Thomas Herquin, referring to the crowd-sourced traffic app. 

The app’s second function is to create a network of local businesses that extend their facilities to the public, all of which are visible on the application. This expands the city’s sanitation capacity by making certain bars and restaurants de facto public toilets. These “partners” are given €100 each month by the local authorities for their participation – ICI Toilettes says this is one-twelfth the cost of setting up and maintaining a public restroom.

First launched in 2021 in Nantes, the application has now made it to the populous suburb of Montreuil on the eastern edge of the capital. The service is set to be rolled out in Grenoble and Urban Services is currently in talks with Saint-Denis, the municipality just north of Paris.

The big prize, Paris, is also in view, as France makes a big investment push before the 2024 Olympic Games. In late September, the start-up was awarded a conditional grant by the ministry of tourism. Urban Services stands to earn between €100,000 and €200,000 if it manages to set up a network of 100 partner retailers in Paris by June 15, 2024 – a number Herquin says will raise the capital’s public toilet capacity by 25%.    

The idea for the app came to Herquin when he was searching for ideas to enter a start-up competition in Nantes that he ended up winning. For market research, he surveyed people on what they thought were the biggest problems they face while commuting. The first was their ability to charge phones, the second, and much more difficult to resolve, was access to sanitary facilities.

Herquin maintains that the restaurants and bars that share their toilets should be considered “complementary” to what is already in place in the city. However, he adds, his application does provide its own benefits.

“According to our research, 85% of women do not use public toilet facilities for several reasons (like hygiene and comfort) so we offer them another option,” says Herquin.

Public urination, Herquin points out, is a serious issue with serious financial consequences. “In Paris alone, 56,000m2 of walls and doors are ruined by urine every month. That can be very costly,” he says.

On whether his business has the potential to help resolve the issue, he is less certain. “The main people who require our services are women. Men seem to have found a solution already, although it is not very clean,” Herquin says.

“But we do hope, with time we can help change the culture.”

What’s more, ICI Toilettes gives people the confidence to go and ask businesses to use their bathrooms, a feature that will particularly serve tourists who are unfamiliar with the French language or their customs related to restrooms. 

In Montreuil, finding the ICI Toilettes sticker is increasingly easy. The service has now been adopted by 10 businesses.

For Putsch café in central Montreuil, signing up with ICI Toilettes doesn’t seem to have changed much except for an extra €100 in the cash register each month. “I know some restaurants can be strict, but we’ve always been open,” says Laurine Ragot, a server at the café. “But we have seen an increase since the app, especially women and people with children desperate to pee.”

Putsch, a cafe in Montreuil that has signed up for ICI Toilettes, November 9, 2023. © Gregor Thompson, FRANCE 24

ICI Toilettes is a welcome change in a city where authorities have long been criticised for the lack of public sanitation infrastructure. Women’s association Maison des femmes de Montreuil recently described the situation as a “hygiene scandal” in French daily Le Parisien

Since signing on with Urban Services in June, “Montreuil has gone from seven public toilet facilities to 17,” says Montreuil’s Deputy Mayor Luc Di Gallo. 

For now, the businesses signed up to ICI Toilettes are concentrated in the city’s centre. The plan is to increase this number and distribute participating establishments more equally throughout the city. 

But ICI Toilettes is no silver bullet, says Di Gallo. People cannot access the app without a smartphone, and it wouldn’t be a viable option for businesses near busy areas like markets, which are unlikely to sign up because they could be inundated by the public.  

“For instances like this, it’s probably better to build public toilets that can [serve] significantly more people.” 

As part of a larger strategy, the response from the public has been “extremely positive”, says Di Gallo, adding that it makes the city more inclusive by meeting the needs of “women, the elderly and disabled people”, who have described the difficulties they encounter when out in public with no access to facilities.

“Of course, we also hope that those who degrade our public spaces will now be more inclined to use a toilet,” Di Gallo says. 

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