Tag: espionage

How Ukraine’s secret agents re-learned the art of shadow warfare

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New revelations in the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline in September 2022 have strengthened the case for Kyiv’s involvement, with a controversial Ukrainian secret agent alleged to have been the brains behind the operation. Although Kyiv continues to deny responsibility, there is little doubt that the Ukrainian intelligence services are playing a very special role in the war against Russia.

New “proof” of Ukrainian involvement in the sabotage of the Nord Stream I and II natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea was published by the Washington Post and German magazine Der Spiegel on Saturday November 11. The two publications claimed to have identified the Ukrainian “mastermind” behind the explosive operation.

Roman Chervinsky, a veteran Ukrainian spy, is alleged to have “coordinated” the team of six saboteurs suspected of setting off explosive charges near the Nord Stream pipelines on September 26, 2022, several sources – “both Ukrainian and among the international teams of security experts connected to this case” – told the two publications, according to Der Spiegel.

‘Hothead’ or ‘patriot’? 

This 48-year-old expert in “clandestine actions” was a controversial figure even before his name came up in the pipeline affair. Chervinsky has been in pre-trial detention in Kyiv since April 2023, awaiting trial for his involvement in a high-risk operation that ended in disaster for Ukraine’s intelligence services.

Chervinsky is accused of having attempted to recruit a Russian pilot in the summer of 2022 amid a broader campaign to lure potential defectors. It soon became clear that the pilot remained only too loyal to Moscow. Instead of flying to Ukraine as promised, he apparently provided the coordinates of a military airport to the Russians, who wasted no time in bombing it. At that time, Chervinsky had joined the Ukrainian army’s ‘special forces’, specialists in intelligence and sabotage operations.

Read moreNord Stream 2: Russia-Germany gas pipeline becomes a geopolitical lever

This failure pushed the Ukrainian authorities to distance themselves from their spy, claiming that he had gone off on his own and exceeded his prerogatives. Since then, Chervinsky has been seen by some Ukrainians as a “risk-taker” who endangers national security. His defenders, however, hail him as a “great patriot” who pulled off one of the Ukraininan intelligence services’ greatest coups in 2019 after he had succeeded in capturing a “Russian witness” supposedly in possession of evidence showing Russian involvement in the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in the skies over the Donbas in 2014.

When contacted for comment by the Washington Post and Der Spiegel, Chervinsky, speaking through his lawyers, accused “Russian propaganda” of trying to frame him for the Nord Stream sabotage. Kyiv, for its part, refused to comment on the “revelations” published by the two Western media outlets.

These new developments are a reminder that behind the trench warfare taking place in Ukraine, a shadow war is also being fought between the countries’ intelligence services. Because, notwithstanding the imbroglio behind Chervinsky’s alleged involvement, the fact remains that, faced with the vast Russian spy machine, Ukraine’s secret agents “have shown themselves to be up to the task”, according to Jeff Hawn, an expert on Russian security issues and a non-resident fellow at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, a think-tank based in Washington, DC. 

“Their actions have a strategic impact on the course of the conflict,” he said.

Soviet Union’s long shadow

Hawn said that the Ukrainian intelligence services seemed to have come a long way since their dark days following the fall of the Soviet Union.

“Before 2014, they were really kind of a joke,” he said. “The SBU [Security Service of Ukraine] was used to spy on political enemies – and was corrupt.”

These criticisms apply equally to the two main intelligence agencies, the SBU, the counter-espionage service that reports to the interior ministry, and the GUR, the military intelligence agency, he said.

After the pro-European Maidan revolution in 2014 and Kyiv’s geopolitical slide to the West, the situation changed. The wave of state modernisation that swept the country has not left the intelligence services behind, even if their Soviet heritage – Ukraine had been the KGB’s second-most important centre of operations in the former Soviet republics – has made the task all the more difficult.

One of the main innovations of the past decade has been the addition of a third branch to Ukraine’s burgeoning espionage. In 2016, the army created its own agency, the Special Operations Forces (SSO), supposed to be made up of elite fighters.

Chervinsky’s career shows the extent to which the three services can step on each other’s toes. As Der Spiegel points out, the spy held similar positions in both the SUB and the GUR before joining the special forces.

Psychological games

Since Russia’s full-scale offensive in February 2022, the operations attributed to Ukrainian agents have shown a mode of operations inspired by Western methods combined “with an almost suicidal approach reminiscent of what KGB agents were ready to do to fulfill their mission”, said Jenny Mathers, a specialist in Russian intelligence services at Aberystwyth University in Wales.

For her, the most surprising operation was the August 2022 assassination of Daria Dugina, the daughter of ultranationalist ideologue Alexander Dugin, which the US believes to have been the work of Ukrainian agents.

“It’s kind of a strange use of precious resources to go after someone like Dugina, who isn’t a prime war target per se,” Mathers said.

At first glance, the sabotage operations launched against the Crimean Bridge and the assassination on Russian soil of submarine commander Vladislav Rzhitsky in July 2023, who was accused of having ordered a missile strike on a Ukrainian town that saw more than 20 civilian deaths, seem to be more in line with the war’s objectives.

But “the big picture seems to be that they are dividing their resources between targets that clearly disrupt the war effort … and other targets with a less direct goal”, Mathers said.

“It’s more about demonstrations of force, showing that they can hit close to Putin’s inner circle. A bit of a psychological game with Russia,” she said.

The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline could be a part of this same logic: proving that the Ukrainian secret services can hit Russian interests, no matter where.

For Mathers, it is still too early to evaluate the impact of all these operations on the course of the conflict. But even if “it won’t be decisive, like a tank breaking the defense line, it will have a strategic effect”, Hawn said: Ukraine’s spies are a constant irritant for the Russians, never letting them forget that the war is also being fought far from the front lines.

This article has been adapted from the original in French.

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‘Nili’: Is a secret Israeli unit hunting Hamas militants behind the October 7 attack?

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Israeli media are reporting that a special unit of security and intelligence agents has been set up to track down and eliminate the Hamas members responsible for the deadly October 7 attacks in southern Israel. The operation is reminiscent of the plot to find the Palestinian militants who murdered 11 Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics.

Israeli media have been reporting over the past week that Shin Bet (Israel’s internal security service) along with the Mossad intelligence service have set up a special unit to track down the Hamas members who organised the killing of more than 1,400 Israelis during the deadly October 7 attack. The unit is reportedly known as NILI – a Hebrew acronym for the Biblical phrase “Netzah Yisrael Lo Yeshaker,” or “The Eternal One of Israel will not lie”.

To date, neither NILI’s existence nor its activities have been confirmed by the Israeli government. But Ahron Bregman, an Israeli political scientist at King’s College London who spent six years in the Israeli army, is fairly confident the special unit is real.

“Shin Bet along with Mossad formed a special operations centre tasked with tracking down and killing members of Hamas that entered Israel and massacred Israelis on 7 October,” says Bregman. “I know from a reliable source that this forum already exists.”  

The formation of such a unit would not be surprising, says Shahin Modarres, a specialist in Iran and Israeli intelligence at the International Team for the Study of Security Verona (ITSS).

“Mossad’s charter specifies that its missions include neutralising threats to Israel and exacting revenge,” he said. “In other words, tracking down Hamas fighters is perfectly within the remit of these spies.”

The perception that the October 7 assault was partly the result of an intelligence failure is all the more reason that Israel would launch this kind of operation, says Modarres; the failure left Shin Bet and Mossad with no choice but to try to redeem themselves.

Operation Wrath of God

NILI’s ambitions would be similar to Operation Wrath of God, considered the archetype of Mossad retribution operations and popularised by the 2005 Steven Speilberg film, “Munich.”

“After the massacre of Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics [by the Palestinian militant group Black September], Mossad tracked down those involved in the massacre, killing them one by one. This is what is now to be expected from NILI,” says Bregman.

The precedent of Operation Wrath of God also gives us an idea of the resources the Israeli state is likely to mobilise for hunting terrorists – up to five different teams of spies and assassins were supported financially and logistically over two decades to track down and eliminate Black September members and those who helped them.

Israel set up a top-secret unit within Mossad’s undercover operations section dubbed Kidon (“bayonet” in English). It remains the flagship of the Israeli secret service’s assassination squad and is responsible for most of the Black September killings. Kidon agents, who are also known for targeting Iranian nuclear scientists, will likely take part in NILI, says Modarres. 

Unlike other spy services, Kidon’s modus operandi of Kidon is not to kill as discreetly as possible. Indeed, their goal is to make a statement – often using explosives.

“They want to send a signal to other terrorist groups and often stage their assassinations,” Modarres says.

Kidon agents are suspected of assassinating Iranian nuclear engineer Darioush Rezaeinejad, who was killed by gunmen on a motorcycle after picking up his child from school in Tehran in 2011.

The 1978 death of Palestinian activist Wadia Haddad is also the suspected work of Kidon agents. According to differing accounts, either Haddad’s toothpaste or some Belgian chocolate given to him by a friend was poisoned.

But the comparison with Operation Wrath of God has its limits.

“The main difference is that NILI will take place while Israel is at war with Hamas,” says Modarres, who argues tracking down Hamas fighters hiding in or underneath Gaza will be more complicated to organise, as it is likely to take place in parallel with the broader military operation.

“I don’t think NILI agents will go in during the first phase of the ground operation, as it would be too dangerous for them,” says Modarres. “They will go in once the purely military objectives have been achieved, to eliminate those who have managed to survive.”

Bregman believes that NILI agents will go in at the same time as the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). “They will have two key missions,” he says. “First, to try to locate the remaining Israeli hostages and, if possible, release them. Second, try to locate Hamas terrorists who killed Israelis on 7th October and kill them.”

In Gaza and beyond

The most obvious targets of Israeli assassins are members of the Nukhba force, the elite corps of fighters of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas. These Hamas commandos are the suspected perpetrators of the October 7 attack.

The brains behind the attack are also on the list. The elusive head of the Qassam Brigades, Mohammed Deif, and his No. 2 Marwan Issa as well as the head of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, are all suspected to be hiding out in the enclave.

Read moreMohammed Deif, the elusive architect of Hamas’s attack on Israel

Mossad’s involvement also offers a clue to NILI operations. It means the assassinations will not be restricted to the Gaza Strip, Bregman says.

“The fact that the body includes Mossad means that Israel will also go after Hamas members who are not in the Gaza Strip, but also living in places such as Qatar and Turkey,” he says.

“I refer to people such as Khaled Meshaal (the influential former leader of Hamas) and Ismail Haniyeh (the chairman of the Hamas political bureau) who, I’m pretty sure, will be looking over their shoulder and for good reason,” adds Bregman.

And the list of targets is likely to grow as the NILI operation continues.

“NILI members will draw up lists of individuals to target as they go along, and it will have to be validated at the highest level of government,” explains Modarres. But not as high as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself, “so that he can plead that he didn’t know about it”, he adds.

A certain distance must be maintained between elected officials and the intelligence services, as this kind of operation can be very risky for the government, Bregman says.

“The Mossad will have to act carefully. The last time they tried to assassinate Khaled [Meshaal] in Amman [in 1997], they failed, and their combatants were arrested by the Jordanians. This then led to a terrible crisis with Jordan and Netanyahu.”

Tel Aviv then had to agree to release prisoners, including the founder of Hamas, Sheikh Ahmed Ismail Hassan Yassin.

Yassin was assassinated by the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip seven years later.

This article was translated from the original in French.

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US says Chinese spy balloon part of aerial surveillance program targeting more than 40 countries

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The China balloon shot down by the U.S. was equipped to detect and collect intelligence signals as part of a huge, military-linked aerial surveillance program that targeted more than 40 countries, the Biden administration declared Thursday, citing imagery from American U-2 spy planes. 

A fleet of balloons operates under the direction of the People’s Liberation Army and is used specifically for spying, outfitted with high-tech equipment designed to gather sensitive information from targets across the globe, the U.S. said. Similar balloons have sailed over five continents, according to the administration.

A statement from a senior State Department official offered the most detail to date linking China’s military to the balloon that was shot down by the U.S. last weekend over the Atlantic Ocean. The public details outlining the program’s scope and capabilities were meant to refute China’s persistent denials that the balloon was used for spying, including a claim Thursday that U.S. accusations about the balloon amount to “information warfare.”

On Capitol Hill, the House voted unanimously to condemn China for a “brazen violation” of U.S. sovereignty and efforts to “deceive the international community through false claims about its intelligence collection campaigns.” Republicans have criticized President Joe Biden for not acting sooner to down the balloon, but both parties’ lawmakers came together on the vote, 419-0.

In Beijing, before the U.S. offered its new information, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning repeated her nation’s insistence that the large unmanned balloon was a civilian meteorological airship that had blown off course and that the U.S. had “overreacted” by shooting it down. 

“It is irresponsible,” Mao said. The latest accusations, she said, “may be part of the U.S. side’s information warfare against China.”

Underscoring the tensions, China’s defense minister refused to take a phone call from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to discuss the balloon issue on Saturday, the Pentagon said. Secretary of State Antony Blinken canceled a planned weekend trip to Beijing.

The U.S. flatly contradicted China’s version of events, saying that imagery of the balloon collected by American U-2 spy planes as it crossed the country showed that it was “capable of conducting signals intelligence collection” with multiple antennas and other equipment designed to upload sensitive information and solar panels to power them.

Jedidiah Royal, the U.S. assistant defense secretary for the Indo-Pacific, told a Senate Appropriations subcommittee that the military has “some very good guesses” about what intelligence China was seeking. More information was expected to be provided in a classified setting.

Senior FBI officials who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the bureau said just a few pieces of the balloon had arrived at the FBI’s Quantico, Virginia, lab for investigation. So far, investigators have parts of the balloon canopy, wiring, and what one official called “a very small amount of electronics.” The official said it was “very early for us to assess what the intent was and how the device was operating.”

According to two U.S. officials, the balloon recovery efforts were temporarily suspended on Thursday due to high seas. They said some balloon debris was intact on the ocean floor and divers had recovered potentially high-value equipment over the past day and a half.

Much of the debris is concentrated in two separate sections of an area that’s 15 football fields long and 15 football fields across, according to the officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the collection process.

The State Department official, providing details to reporters by email, also on condition of anonymity, said an analysis of the balloon debris was “inconsistent” with China’s explanation that it was a weather balloon that went off course. The U.S. is reaching out to countries that have also been targeted, the official said, to discuss the scope of the Chinese surveillance program, and is looking into potential action that “supported the balloon’s incursion into U.S. airspace.”

The official said the U.S. has confidence that the manufacturer of the balloon shot down on Saturday has “a direct relationship with China’s military and is an approved vendor of the” army. The official cited information from an official PLA procurement portal as evidence for the connection between the company and the military.

The release of new information appeared part of a coordinated administration response, with multiple officials appearing before congressional committees to face questions about the balloon.

Testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said officials had taken “all necessary steps to protect sensitive information” and had been able to study and scrutinize the balloon and its equipment.

“We will continue to answer the dangers posed by the PRC with determination and resolve,” Sherman said, referring to the People’s Republic of China. “We will make clear to the PRC that violations of our sovereignty and the sovereignty of other countries are unacceptable.”

At a separate Senate subcommittee hearing, lawmakers repeatedly pressed administration officials, including Pentagon military leaders, about why the balloon was not shot down over sparsely populated areas of Alaska. And they questioned whether allowing the balloon to transit such a large area set a precedent for future spying efforts by China and others.

“It defies belief that there was not a single opportunity to safely shoot this spy balloon prior to the coast of South Carolina,” said Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine. “By the administration’s logic we would allow the Chinese to fly surveillance balloons over the Pentagon or other sensitive sites and populated areas.”

Melissa Dalton, assistant defense secretary of Homeland Defense, and Lt. Gen. Doug Sims, director of operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the U.S. wanted to avoid any injuries or deaths from the debris field if the balloon was shot down over Alaska. 

And they added that shooting it down over the frigid, icy waters in that region would have made it more difficult and dangerous to recover the pieces for more analysis.

“We thought before we shot,” said Sims. This is not the first time the U.S. government has publicly called out alleged activities of the People’s Liberation Army. In a first-of-its-kind prosecution in 2014, the Obama administration Justice Department indicted five accused PLA hackers of breaking into the computer networks of major American corporations in an effort to steal trade secrets. 

(AP)

 

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