UK’s 2022 migration levels revised to a record-breaking high

The figures will likely be an embarrassment for Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government who consistently pledge to bring the levels down.

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Net migration in the United Kingdom hit a record-breaking 745,000 in 2022, according to revised figures which also revealed some 672,000 people came to the UK in the 12 months to June 2023.

The numbers released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) had previously been put at 606,000, which was deemed then to be a record high.

It’s a significant embarrassment for the country’s Conservative government, who have continuously insisted that it remains committed to reducing migration.

Led by Rishi Sunak, the party has already introduced measures to try to reduce the figure.

Among their initiatives was a plan to stop international students bringing their families with them when they study in the UK – except under very specific circumstances.

Even more controversially, Sunak’s plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda was ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court earlier in November.

It was part of his attempt to stop small boats crossing the English Channel and a policy supported by many, including the New Conservatives group on the right of the party.

They have repeatedly called for ministers to close temporary visa schemes for care workers and to cap the number of refugees resettling in the UK at 20,000 – with the aim of reducing net migration to 226,000 by the time of the election, which is likely to be held next year.

It is now certain that these efforts have not come to fruition for the Conservatives as they had hoped.

The ONS release of the statistic – some 140,000 higher than first thought – has caused criticism from all parts of the political spectrum.

The Conservatives themselves have hit out at the numbers – with former cabinet minister Simon Clarke saying having legal migration at such a level was “unsustainable both economically and socially”.

MP Jonathan Gullis went one step further, calling the figures “completely unacceptable to the majority of the British people”, and suggesting that “drastic action” is needed.

The newly-installed Home Secretary James Cleverly has all but dismissed the figures – and the impact they’re likely to have – instead insisting that the government remained “completely committed to reducing levels of legal migration” and would also be “focusing relentlessly” on tackling illegal migration.

On the other side of the political fence, the Labour Party have been using the findings as a way to attack the Conservatives and their apparent failures.

Labour’s shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, says she and the party believe the statistics show “the scale of utter Tory failure on immigration, asylum, and the economy”.

It’s an interesting time for Sunak’s government – and its newest, surprise hire David Cameron.

In 2010, the then-prime minister – who is now Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron – pledged to bring net migration down to the “tens of thousands”.

Successive Tory governments have sought to move away from exact targets for reasons exactly like we are seeing now.

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Sunak is under increasing pressure from the right of his party to reduce net migration, especially in light of the 2019 Tory manifesto – when Boris Johnson was in charge. It promised to bring the “overall number down”.

Home Secretary James Cleverly insists that he and the cabinet are “working across government on further measures to prevent exploitation and manipulation of our visa system, including clamping down on those that take advantage of the flexibility of the immigration system”.

Do the figures work both ways?

According to the ONS, most people arriving in the UK in the year to June 2023 were non-EU nationals.

They made up a total of 968,000 immigrants, followed by 129,000 EU citizens.

At the same time, both EU nationals and Britons were leaving the country in greater numbers.

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Some 10,000 more EU nationals left than arrived in the UK and 86,000 more British nationals were seen to be leaving than arriving.

The net figure for non-EU people overall, though, was 768,000 more arriving than leaving.

Work was discovered to be the largest reason people from outside the EU migrated to the UK.

That figure was at 278,000 – and the first time employment was the most popular reason.

Against the Conservatives’ wishes, more foreign students were seen to be staying for longer – and bringing dependents or family members with them.

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For those coming to the UK out of desperation, the number remained relatively stable.

Around 88,000 people were granted asylum, up from 73,000 in the year to June 2022 – when ongoing COVID-19 restrictions were still having more of an impact.

The ONS suggests that net migration has “increased sharply” since 2021 due to a rise in immigration from non-EU countries.

They include thousands of individuals arriving via humanitarian routes from the likes of Ukraine and Hong Kong.

The ONS figures show that the asylum backlog has fallen slightly.

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At the end of June 2023, there were 175,457 people waiting for a decision on their asylum claim; that number dropped to 165,411 by the end of September.

But, that’s not as positive as it might seem, Sile Reynolds, Head of Asylum Advocacy at Freedom from Torture tells Euronews.

“The UK Government’s own data on asylum disproves the toxic and divisive narrative that has guided its punitive approach to refugees. These statistics leave no doubt that most people reaching our shores need sanctuary – men, women and children who have fled the most unimaginable horrors like torture and war, in places like Afghanistan, Syria and Iran,” Reynolds explains.

The charity also hit out at the government’s treatment of so-called “legacy backlog” cases.

They are, in simple terms, claims made before the end of June 2022, which are being cleared by the Conservatives at significant speed, with 28,202 cases taken care of in the last three months.

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“The phenomenal rate at which ‘legacy’ claims are being decided – at nearly 8,000 per month – demonstrates what they can do when they want to deal with a problem”, Reynolds tells Euronews.

“This data disguises the catastrophic backlog of new asylum claims growing as a direct result of a flawed policy of deterrence. As a result, thousands of refugees, including survivors of torture, are condemned to languish in limbo and unsafe accommodation, unable to recover or rebuild their lives,” he adds.

All change for asylum rules?

Sunak’s Rwanda policy was targeted at people arriving in the UK by ‘unauthorised means’, including frequent Channel crossings.

They would have been deported to the African nation and made to claim asylum there and not in the UK.

In its landmark ruling, though, the Supreme Court said that those sent to Rwanda would be at “real risk” of being sent back to their country of origin regardless of whether their asylum claim was justified or not.

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That, they say, is something which would breach international laws on human rights.

Sunak called the ruling “frustrating” and promised to double down on the policy, saying he would “change laws and revisit… international relationships”.

That is not a popular plan with many.

“These statistics show that cruel deterrents, like the Rwanda plan so recently declared unlawful by the highest court in the land, will not stop people risking their lives trying to reach sanctuary here in the UK,” Reynolds says, adding, “Rather than punishing refugees, this Government should reverse the cruel asylum ban, urgently refocus their efforts into rebuilding a fair and compassionate asylum system and restore and expand safe routes to protection.”

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Willkommenskultur: Has Germany turned its back on welcoming migrants?

After two electoral defeats for his coalition, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz is now taking a tougher stance on migration, trying to ramp up efforts to deport those illegally in the country.

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Amid the widespread panic shared by European countries during the migrant crisis of 2015-2016, Germany represented a beacon of light and optimism under the leadership of then-chancellor Angela Merkel, who famously opened her country up to huge numbers of migrants.

Under Merkel’s leadership and her “welcome culture” policy, the country took in more than 1.2 million refugees and asylum seekers between 2015 and 2016.

But as levels of illegal migration in Europe are once again on the rise, Germany now finds itself in a very different position, forced to turn its back on the “welcome culture” – or “Willkommenskultur” – which it once prided itself on.

“We are limiting irregular migration to Germany. Too many people are coming,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in a recent interview with newspaper Der Spiegel. “We have to deport people more often and faster.”

Germany needs to ramp up the expulsions of migrants who are not allowed to stay in the country, Scholz said. Only days later, the German Cabinet granted its approval to a legislative proposal aiming at streamlining the deportation process of unsuccessful asylum-seekers.

It’s a huge change for Germany and Scholz, who might have been expected to continue the legacy of his predecessor. 

“There’s a notable change in rhetoric and policy with the clear objective to bring migration numbers down,” Michael Bröning, a political scientist and a member of the SPD Basic Value Commission, told Euronews.

“Suggested steps include facilitating deportations, more severe sanctions for human traffickers, the reinstallation of temporary border controls, further bilateral agreements with countries of origin and an extension of the list of countries deemed safe. In sum, this is a drastic shift in policy that signals an end to Germany’s unique ‘welcome culture’ as witnessed in 2015,” he added.

A stark change in policy after electoral woes

During a three-day visit to Nigeria earlier this week, Scholz asked the African country’s President Bola Tinubu for help tackling soaring migration, suggesting a partnership somewhat similar to the one that Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni struck with Tunisia earlier this year.

The idea is to expand migration centres in Nigeria, where those deported from Germany could find shelter, health care and job opportunities.

The initiative is part of the increasingly tough approach Scholz and his government are showing towards illegal migration after his three-party coalition performed badly in two regional elections earlier this month. Both state races were won by mainstream conservatives, while the far-right made significant gains.

Bröning said that “it’s impossible to say if this change will directly translate into greater support for the government” in future elections.

“But it is important to realise that the German public does want the government to act,” he continued. “Furthermore, it is important to see that the shift in policy does not happen in a vacuum but rather against the backdrop of a growing challenge from Germany’s far right.”

In recent months, the AfD has surged in the polls and scored significant electoral successes in Bavaria and Hesse.

“I think this development is not untypical of trends one can witness in other left and/or social democratic parties, which have for years been facing a dilemma regarding how to respond to the challenges from the populist radical right,” Dr Kurt Richard Luther, Professor Emeritus of Comparative Politics at Keele University in the UK, told Euronews.

“While the rise of the AfD is fuelled by a wide range of grievances – some imagined and some real, concern about what is seen as uncontrolled immigration has long been a main driving force of right-wing populism,” said Bröning.

Scholz is now under significant pressure to bring down the rising numbers of asylum seekers in the country, as dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the refugee situation is growing. 

A recent ARD DeutschlandTrend survey found that 44% of Germans currently consider illegal immigration the most important political problem in Germany that politicians should prioritise.

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“Addressing the issue is clearly the order of the day,” said Bröning.

“The challenge will be to manage the crisis without jeopardising either the stability of the coalition government or intra-party cohesion. Clearly, not every social democrat or German green voter is happy with the proposed changes. so I assume it’s fair to say that we are at the beginning of a debate, not at the end of it.”

Has the way Germans feel about migrants changed?

While many countries across Europe were tightening border control back in 2015, it was common to see cheering crowds of Germans greeting thousands of migrants arriving in the country after a long trek across the Middle East and Europe.

What happened to that enthusiasm for Germany’s newcomers?

Despite what Scholz’s shift in policy would suggest, “many Germans are still in favour of welcoming people in need and there is widespread support for accepting humanitarian responsibility – not denying it,” Bröning said.

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“However, numbers have had an effect and the mood from 2015 has drastically changed,” he added.

Today, there’s widespread conviction among the German public that numbers must come down “and reactions to the current escalation in the Middle East have come to play an important – and unexpected – part in this transformation of the debate,” Bröning said.

“Pro-Palestinian rallies, a wave of antisemitic incidents, and the celebration of the Hamas attack in some high immigration neighbourhoods have been stark reminders that not all is well with regards to migration and integration. In many ways, this has opened up the discourse for a more nuanced discussion.”

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The EU can’t hope for unity until it solves its Schengen conundrum

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

A chain is as strong as its weakest link, as the saying goes, and Brussels can’t afford a lack of unity or coherence regarding free movement. If a country deserves to be part of Schengen, it should be allowed in, Cristian Gherasim writes.

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It’s 2023, and the world seems to be sitting on a powder keg about to explode, and it’s hardly the time for ambiguity and loose ends. 

Still, the European Union has been dragging its feet in sorting out one of the more contentious yet fundamental principles that stand behind its existence – the free movement of its citizens. 

The Schengen Agreement sits at the core of this principle, with the area abolishing all types of checks at mutual borders for as many as 23 of its member states.

However, over the years, the agreement which came into existence in 1985 and kept expanding as the bloc grew has become a bone of contention among some due to two main issues: a clause in the treaty which allows member states to temporarily reintroduce border controls, and the enlargement process of the Schengen Area that demands a unanimous vote by all member states.

The broad conditions stipulated in the Schengen Agreement sometimes do end up being misused, with politics playing a big part, and the question of open borders can quickly become a major talking point on the campaign trail. 

Who is suspending Schengen and why?

In the wake of state elections in Germany, the ruling “traffic light” coalition has decided to try and appear tough on immigration by reinstating border controls with Poland and the Czech Republic, stating it was part of a push to stop human trafficking. 

Slovenia had also intensified surveillance at the border with Croatia citing illegal immigration concerns. Notably, one year into the job, the ruling liberal party in Ljubljana has taken a nosedive in the polls — and it’s becoming clear that the idea behind the move is that playing the immigration card could help reverse it.

The populist party Smer which won the recent general election in Slovakia is now calling for border checks with Hungary invoking immigration.

Poland’s populist PiS party also hoped to cling to power by instating border controls with Slovakia over the issue of immigration. Although they lost out on forming the new government, PiS is still expected to be a strong anti-immigration voice in the domestic parliament and the EU alike.

On top of that, there are also concerns voiced by Denmark and Sweden, the two northern countries that also decided to reinstate border checks after recent Quran burnings.

The recent terrorist attack in Brussels — said to have been triggered by the Quran burnings in Sweden — and the Hamas’ violent incursion into Israel on 7 October has also spurred Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni to take full responsibility for reinstating border controls with Slovenia, citing concerns of further violent extremism.

What does this mean for aspiring members and what does the EU stand to lose?

Why are Bulgaria and Romania being left out in the cold?

One of the most contentious issues of recent years linked to Schengen is the blocking of both Romania and Bulgaria by Austria and the Netherlands, respectively, in joining the border-free area.

The Dutch argument for keeping Bulgaria out revolved around the presence of organised crime and corruption in the Balkan nation, an EU member since 2007. 

However, Bulgaria and Romania have both successfully completed the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism, and according to the European Commission, both countries have made progress in the fight against corruption and in judicial reform. For Bulgaria, this also meant renewed hopes towards Schengen accession.

Over the past years, both the European Commission and the European Parliament have repeatedly said that the two have met the requirements to become Schengen members and urged all member states to vote them in.

Yet, Austria — which has no border with Romania — justified its veto by saying that the country is an entry point for migrants into Austria and the EU. All this, despite the fact that according to Frontex, Romania, just like the rest of the bloc’s eastern border, does not represent a major migratory risk.

This summer, the European Parliament issued a press release highlighting the economic burden that keeping both countries outside Schengen has on business and populations, contributing to the increased price of goods and travel. 

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Interestingly enough, the European Parliament also believes that obstructing the free flow of goods between European member states adds to pollution and acts as an additional burden to the EU’s climate neutrality goals.

There’s always room for improvement

All is not rosy though. While both Bucharest and Sofia have indeed fulfilled all requirements to be a part of the Schengen Area, despite improvements, Bulgaria is still regarded as the most corrupt country in the EU, with Romania following suit. 

Romania’s eastern border with Ukraine is amongst the most lucrative borders in terms of cigarette smuggling and illicit trade in the EU. 

Some progress has been made as Stop Contrabanda, a website monitoring cigarette busts, reported that authorities seized millions of contraband cigarettes last year. Yet the problem persists, and can indeed prove to be a liability for the EU and NATO in a time of conflict.

Still, a Schengen accession of both countries would make more sense for the EU. It would help manage external borders better by pooling resources and securing crucial routes for getting grain out of Ukraine. 

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With the Black Sea Grain Deal in tatters and Ukrainian ports shelled almost every day, Romania is playing a pivotal role in getting grain out of Ukraine. 

Delaying transport across EU borders could impact food supplies, possibly leading to shortages and even price hikes.

What can be done?

A chain is as strong as its weakest link, as the saying goes, and Brussels can’t afford a lack of unity and coherence when it comes to free movement. 

If a country deserves to be part of Schengen, it should be allowed to do so. With the rise of populism, the EU surely doesn’t need member states thinking that they have been unfairly treated, or seeking other partners outside of the bloc.

This finally brings the conversation to the unanimity vote which might need to be reconsidered. 

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It might not be in the EU’s best interest that in a time of war and great need for more unity a country’s whims should prevail against the decisions of all the other member states. 

After all, the EU’s future is at stake, and together with it, that of its 27 member states.

Cristian Gherasim is an analyst, consultant and journalist with over 15 years of experience focusing on Eastern and Central European affairs.

At Euronews, we believe all views matter. Contact us at [email protected] to send pitches or submissions and be part of the conversation.

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