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Russia-Ukraine war | What to expect from peace talks in Saudi Arabia?

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The story so far: Saudi Arabia is set to host Ukraine, the U.S., some European countries and major developing countries including India and Brazil for peace talks on the Russia-Ukraine war on August 5 and 6 in the Red Sea port city of Jeddah. The development was first reported by the Wall Street Journal earlier this week, noting that top officials from up to 30 countries, excluding Russia, had been invited for the talks where Ukraine is seeking to garner support for its 10-point peace plan proposed last year.

Has the time for effective peace negotiations on Russia-Ukraine come?

While Russia has shown no signs of retreating from the frontlines in its now 17-month-old military operation against neighbour Ukraine, the latter also seems keen on fighting it out on the battlefield on the back of its retaking of the key cities Kherson and Kharkiv last fall. It also has its military position currently strengthened by the billions of dollars worth of arms and equipment flowing in from Europe and the U.S., where President Joe Biden reiterated last month that he would provide Ukraine with defence funding for “as long as it takes”.

Notably, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in May that he did not think peace negotiations in the Ukraine war were “possible at this stage”, when both sides were “convinced that they can win”. Analysts, too, are near unanimous in saying that they do not envision effective peace talks that could end the conflict in the near future.

While both Ukraine and Russia have signalled their openness to talk on global platforms, they squarely reject what peace would look like for the other. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to hold his position that peace negotiations cannot happen without the withdrawal of Russian troops and that Ukraine should be in the driver’s seat and define its own terms of peace. The 10-point peace plan that Mr. Zelenskyy is promoting since last year’s G-20 Summit — involves the withdrawal of Russian troops and restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity as per its 1991 borders post the breakdown of the Soviet Union and reaffirming it according to the UN Charter, besides prosecuting war crimes committed by Russia. Russia, which has rejected the plan and is unwilling to cede any of the captured territory in Ukraine has said, meanwhile, that any negotiation should happen factoring in “new realities”, indicating redrawn borders including the territories it has annexed.

Status of the Russia-Ukraine war into 500 days of the conflict. Information source: OHCHR, UN, UNHCR, World Bank, Pentagon papers
| Photo Credit:
Graphic by Graphic News

In a bid to placate countries that have not imposed sanctions against it and continue to be non-aligned trade partners, Moscow has publically shown willingness to come to the negotiating table, putting the blame on Ukraine for the continuing conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin said in December 2022, that was “ready to negotiate with everyone involved” on an acceptable solution, it was Kyiv that was was “refusing” to talk.

A January paper by the RAND Corporation on the trajectory of the current conflict outlines impediments that have historically made ending wars difficult, which indicate why the possibility of real peace negotiations may not be so close. First is when both states disagree about their prospects for victory. While Ukraine remains optimistic about its counteroffensives banking on the West’s support, Mr. Putin continues his fight with a fifth of Ukranian territory captured and a future mobilisation looming as he remains largely unopposed back home.

Analysts also point out other hindrances to current peace negotiations; while some countries have suggested a ceasefire, Ukraine does not trust Russia to uphold it, also believing that any break from the battlefield would give Russia time to recoup and come back it more force. Before any sort of negotiated end to the conflict, Ukraine is also demanding a long-term security plan from the West or NATO, keeping in mind that Russia would continue to be its neighbour, while the latter’s rationale behind launching the offensive was the extension of military alliances in its neighbourhood.

What kind of negotiations have taken place so far?

In the initial weeks of the conflict which started in February last year, the two parties engaged in talks for temporary ceasefires for creating humanitarian corridors. Direct negotiations on peace (which first happened in Belarus and Turkey) between the two have not happened since May last year, where the prospect of Ukraine never seeking NATO membership was discussed. Talks broke down as evidence of war atrocities in Ukraine and Russian attacks on civilians began to mount. Since then, the International Criminal Court at the Hague has issued an arrest warrant against Mr. Putin.

Besides, Russia, recently pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Deal brokered by Turkey and the UN after a year. The deal, which allowed the movement of 32.9 million metric tonnes of foodgrains from Ukraine through a safe corridor, was the one negotiation which was seen as fairly effective, even though a sizeable portion of grains were shipped to China and high-income countries.

Since last year, however, multiple countries and blocs have shown willingness to become mediators between the two parties, offering their own roadmaps for peace. While no plan has yet been accepted by both Russia and Ukraine, it has highlighted strategic attempts at mediation by influential players in other parts of the globe as the West’s current position remains that of supporting Kyiv militarily.

What is the peace plan proposed by China?

In February this year, China came out with a 12-point plan for the “political settlement of the Ukraine crisis”. While the Chinese Foreign Ministry promoted it as the launch of a peace initiative by Beijing, it was seen as an attempt to placate criticism of its silence on Russia’s actions, as a repetition of its already expressed positions on the war and as skewed in favour of Moscow. While Kyiv outrightly rejected the proposal, Russia has said that it could serve as a “basis for the basis of some processes aimed at the search for peace”, but had some provisions, like a ceasefire, that were “impossible” to implement.

The plan reiterated China’s support for territorial integrity of states and the UN Charter, condemned using of nuclear power in wars, and called for the ceasing of hostilities and resumption of talks. However, it also called for “abandoning cold war mentality”, adding that security should not be achieved by expanding military alliances, pointing towards NATO and the West. The plan was seen favouring Russia as it also called for countries to stop “abusing” unilateral sanctions.

A March paper by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace notes that the vague nature of China’s plan reflects its varied interest. First, Beijing squarely expressed support for territorial integrity factoring in its position on Taiwan and other border issues with countries like India. Besides its strategic and economic ties with Russia, Beijing has also been a beneficiary of the conflict as Russia is once again seen as its junior power, relying on it for diplomatic support in the face of the West and for helping its economy by buying goods amid Western sanctions. China’s position paper was also seen as an attempt to position itself as a responsible power in the Global South and the UN security council, as the only member who worked on initiating a peace process.

What about the peace initiatives proposed by Africa and others?

In June, leaders of seven African countries, led by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, visited Russia and Ukraine with a 10-point proposal which suggested the recognition of Russia and Ukraine’s sovereignty, and the release of prisoners. It also called for keeping the exports of foodgrains unhindered; for a de-escalation of fighting, and for peace negotiations between the two sides to start at the earliest.

Notably, the war has meant rising inflation and a shortage of grain and fertilizers for many countries in the African continent, which import these products from Ukraine and Russia respectively. As per the African Development Bank, the conflict is directly responsible for a shortage of about 30 million tonnes of grain in Africa. The plan was also seen as an attempt at peace by African countries who have not outrightly condemned Russia and abstained from UN resolutions against it.

Meanwhile, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva earlier suggested that he could lead a “peace club” of countries who are not involved in the war and are militarily non-aligned, to broker discussions between the two sides. The leader, whose efforts were seen as an attempt to bring Brazil back to global relevance after the divisive Jair Bolsonaro regime, drew criticism from Ukraine and the West, as he also suggested that the West was prolonging the conflict by supplying arms to Kyiv. He suggested earlier that the decision to start war was “made by two countries,” appearing to place some blame on Ukraine.

Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto also proposed last month, a ceasefire “at present positions” and demilitarised zones that would be guaranteed by observers and United Nations peacekeeping forces. He also suggested an eventual “referendum in the disputed areas” organised by the UN. He drew criticism from the EU, which said that peace in the Ukraine conflict had to be “just”, and not a “peace of surrender”. 

What is known about the upcoming talks in Jeddah?

The United Kingdom, EU, South Africa, and Poland have already confirmed their attendance for the talks. The U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is also likely to attend.

The head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak said that Kyiv was trying to get as many countries involved in a meeting in Saudi Arabia about implementing Ukraine’s 10-point plan “to restore lasting and just peace”. Russia, which had rejected the plan, does not appear to be among those invited to the Jeddah talks. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Russia would follow the meeting closely to understand its goals, adding that any attempt to promote a “peaceful settlement deserves a positive evaluation”. He added, however, that Kyiv did not want peace if it was being “used exclusively as a too in the war of the collective West with Russia”.

While observers are not expecting an overall breakthrough from the talks when it comes to achieving peace in protracted conflict, it is being seen as a constructive way of promoting third-party mediation by players apart from the West, and of bringing to the table both the West non-aligned countries of the Global South, which have refused to isolate Russia. Notably, Saudi Arabia maintains close ties with Moscow and is a part of the influential oil cartel OPEC+. It has also drawn criticism for cutting oil outputs and driving out prices at a time when supplies from Russia face sanctions.

The New York Times pointed out that Saudi Arabia’s decision to host the talks also appears to be a part of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s posturing as a global leader who can wield influence beyond his region. Last year, Saudi Arabia helped broker the return of 10 foreign nationals captured by Russia.

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Russia targets Ukraine’s port of Odesa and calls it payback for a strike on a key bridge to Crimea

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Ukraine said its forces shot down Russian drones and cruise missiles targeting the Black Sea port of Odesa before dawn on Tuesday in what Moscow called “retribution” for an attack that damaged a crucial bridge to the Crimean Peninsula.

The Russians first sought to wear down Ukraine’s air defences by firing 25 exploding drones and then targeted Odesa with six Kalibr cruise missiles, the Ukrainian military’s Southern Command said.

All six missiles and the drones were shot down by air defences in the Odesa region and other areas in the south, officials said, though their debris and shock waves damaged some port facilities and a few residential buildings and injured an elderly man at his home.

The Russian Defence Ministry said its “strike of retribution” was carried out with sea-launched precision weapons on Ukrainian military facilities near Odesa and Mykolaiv, a coastal city about 50 km to the northeast.

It destroyed facilities preparing “terror attacks” against Russia involving maritime drones, including a facility at a shipyard that was producing them, the Ministry said. It added that it also struck Ukrainian fuel depots near the two cities.

It was not possible to verify the conflicting claims by both countries.

Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Ukraine on Monday for striking the Kerch Bridge, which links Russia with Crimea and was attacked in October 2022 and needed months of repairs. The bridge is a key supply route for the peninsula, which was illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014.

Ukrainian officials stopped short of directly taking responsibility, as they have done in similar strikes before, but Ukraine’s top security agency appeared tacitly to admit to a role.

Satellite images taken on Monday by Maxar Technologies showed serious damage to both eastbound and westbound lanes of the bridge across the Kerch Strait on the part nearest to the Russian mainland, with at least one section collapsed. The railroad bridge that runs parallel to the highway appeared undamaged.

The Russian military has sporadically hit Odesa and the neighboring region throughout the war, but Tuesday’s barrage was one of the biggest attacks on the area.

Ukrainian forces have been targeting Crimea with drones and other attacks. Kyiv has vowed to reclaim it from Russian control, arguing that the peninsula plays a key role in sustaining the Russian invasion and is a legitimate target.

The onslaught also came a day after Russia broke off a deal that had allowed Ukraine to ship vital grain supplies from Odesa during the war. Moscow said the decision was in the works long before the bridge attack.

Even so, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov alleged, without offering evidence, that the specific shipping lanes and routes used for the grain transport under the deal were abused by Ukraine.

“Our military has repeatedly said that Ukraine has used these grain corridors for military purposes,” Mr. Peskov told reporters.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine will continue implementing the grain deal. Mr. Peskov warned that such action was risky because the region lies next to an area where there is fighting.

“If they try to do something without Russia, these risks must be taken into account,” Mr. Peskov told reporters.

Mr. Zelensky said grain exports by sea and port security topped the agenda of his meeting on Tuesday with senior military commanders and top government officials, adding that he received reports on logistics and protection of the coastal regions.

Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine’s presidential office, said Russia is endangering the lives of millions of people around the world who need Ukrainian grain exports. Hunger is a growing threat in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and high food prices have pushed more people into poverty.


Also read: Why allowing Ukraine to ship grain during Russia’s war matters to the world

“The world must realise that the goal of the Russian Federation is hunger and killing people,” Mr. Yermak said. “They need waves of refugees. They want to weaken the West with this.”

The United Nations and Ukraine’s Western allies slammed Moscow for halting the Black Sea Grain Initiative, saying it put many lives in peril.

USAID is giving Ukraine a further $250 million to support its agricultural sector as its chief, Samantha Power, visited Odesa and chided Moscow for its stance.

“Russia’s disruption of maritime commerce since the beginning of its full-scale invasion, including blockading ports, delaying ship inspections, and, most recently, withdrawing from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, has severely choked the amount of grain Ukraine is able to provide to the world amid a global food crisis,” a USAID statement said.

The Kremlin said the agreement would be suspended until Moscow’s demands to lift restrictions on exports of Russian food and fertilizer to the world are met. Peskov on Tuesday reaffirmed an earlier Kremlin pledge to provide especially poor countries in Africa with grain for free, adding that the issue will be discussed at a Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg next week.

Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry also said its forces had foiled a Ukrainian attack on Crimea using 28 drones.

The ministry said 17 of the attacking drones were shot down by air defenses and 11 others were jammed by electronic warfare means and crashed. It said there was no damage or casualties.

Also Tuesday, satellite photos from Planet Labs PBC analyzed by The Associated Press showed that a convoy of vehicles arrived at a once-abandoned military base in Belarus, which was offered to Russia’s private military contractor, Wagner. That followed a short-lived rebellion last month against the Russian Defense Ministry by Wagner’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The photos, taken Monday, show a long line of vehicles coming off a highway into the base near the Belarusian town of Osipovichi, some 75 kilometers (45 miles) northwest of the capital, Minsk.

Belaruski Hajun, an activist group that monitors troops movements in Belarus, said a convoy of more than 100 vehicles with Russian flags and Wagner insignia entered the country, heading for the camp. The group said it was the third Wagner convoy to enter Belarus since last week.

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NATO chief says no timetable set for Ukraine’s membership; Zelenskyy calls that ‘absurd’

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NATO leaders said July 11 that they would allow Ukraine to join the alliance “when allies agree and conditions are met,” hours after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blasted the organization’s failure to set a timetable for his country as “absurd.”

“We reaffirmed Ukraine will become a member of NATO and agreed to remove the requirement for a membership action plan,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters, referring to a key step in joining the alliance.

“This will change Ukraine’s membership path from a two-step path to a one-step path,” he said.

Although many NATO members have funneled arms and ammunition to Zelenskyy’s forces, there is no consensus among the 31 allies for admitting Ukraine into NATO’s ranks. Instead, alliance leaders decided to remove obstacles on Ukraine’s membership path so that it can join more quickly once the war with Russia is over.

Zelenskyy pushed back sharply against the decision.

“It’s unprecedented and absurd when a time frame is set neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine’s membership,” Zelenskyy tweeted as he headed to the annual NATO summit in Vilnius. “While at the same time, vague wording about ‘conditions’ is added even for inviting Ukraine. It seems there is no readiness to invite Ukraine to NATO or to make it a member of the Alliance.”

NATO membership would afford Ukraine protection against a giant neighbor that annexed its Crimean Peninsula almost a decade ago and more recently seized vast swaths of land in the east and south. Joining NATO would also oblige Kyiv to reform its security institutions, improve governance and curb corruption — work that would also ease the country’s path into the European Union.

Asked about Zelenskyy’s concerns, Stoltenberg said the most important thing now is to ensure that his country wins the war, because “unless Ukraine prevails there is no membership to be discussed at all.”

The broadside from Zelenskyy could renew tensions at the summit shortly after it saw a burst of goodwill following an agreement by Turkey to advance Sweden’s bid to join NATO. Allies hope to resolve the seesawing negotiations and create a clear plan for the alliance and its support for Ukraine.

“We value our allies,” Zelenskyy wrote on Twitter, adding that “Ukraine also deserves respect.” He also said: “Uncertainty is weakness. And I will openly discuss this at the summit.”

Zelenskyy is expected to meet Wednesday with U.S. President Joe Biden and other NATO leaders.

There have been sharp divisions within the alliance over Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, which was promised back in 2008 even though few steps were taken toward that goal.

In addition, the Baltic states — including Lithuania, which is hosting the summit — have pushed for a strong show of support and a clear pathway toward membership for Ukraine.

However, the United States and Germany urged caution. Biden said last week that Ukraine was not ready to join. Members of NATO, he told CNN, need to “meet all the qualifications, from democratization to a whole range of other issues,” a nod toward longstanding concerns about governance and corruption in Kyiv.

In addition, some fear that bringing Ukraine into NATO would serve more as a provocation to Russia than as a deterrence against aggression.

Concretely, NATO leaders decided to launch a series of multiyear programs to bring Ukraine’s Soviet-era military equipment and doctrines up to modern standards so the country can operate fully with the alliance.

On Wednesday, the leaders and Zelenskyy are set to launch a new, upgraded forum for their cooperation: a NATO-Ukraine Council, where all parties can convene crisis talks if their security is threateed.

To fast-track its future membership, the leaders agreed to do away with a membership action plan for Ukraine, a program often seen as mandatory for aspiring nations to undertake.

Known in NATO parlance as a MAP, the action plan involves a tailor-made package of advice, assistance and practical support for countries preparing to join NATO. Bosnia, for example, is currently taking part in one.

Pressed by reporters to say what kind of conditions are being placed on Ukraine joining, Stoltenberg said: “We want modern defense and security institutions.

He also said Kyiv’s hopes might hinge on strengthening its governance standards and fighting corruption.

The dispute over Ukraine stands in contrast to a hard-fought agreement to advance Sweden’s membership. The deal was reached after days of intensive meetings, and it’s poised to expand the alliance’s strength in Northern Europe.

“Rumors of the death of NATO’s unity were greatly exaggerated,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters triumphantly on Tuesday.

According to a joint statement issued when the deal was announced, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will ask Turkey’s parliament to approve Sweden joining NATO.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, another holdout, is expected to take a similar step. Hungary’s foreign minister said Tuesday that his country’s ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership was now just a “technical matter.” Erdogan has not yet commented publicly.

The outcome is a victory as well for Biden, who has touted NATO’s expansion as an example of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has backfired on Moscow.

Finland has already become the 31st member of the alliance, and Sweden is on deck to become the 32nd. Both Nordic countries were historically nonaligned until the war increased fears of Russian aggression.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that NATO’s expansion is “one of the reasons that led to the current situation.”

“It looks like the Europeans don’t understand their mistake,” Peskov said. He warned against putting Ukraine on a fast track for NATO membership.

“Potentially it’s very dangerous for the European security. It carries very big risks,” Peskov said.

Erdogan met with Biden on Tuesday evening but remained mum on the deal to advance Sweden’s membership in NATO.

Although Biden made a reference to “the agreement you reached yesterday,” Erdogan said nothing about it. It was a conspicuous omission from Erdogan, who has not commented on the issue publicly during the summit.

However, Erdogan appeared eager to develop his relationship with Biden. He said previous meetings were “mere warm-ups, but now we are initiating a new process.”

The Turkish president has been seeking advanced American fighter jets and a path toward membership in the European Union. The White House has expressed support for both, but publicly insisted that the issues were not related to Sweden’s membership in NATO.

The Biden administration has backed Turkey’s desire to buy 40 new F-16s as well as modernization kits from the U.S.

Biden is on a five-day trip to Europe, with the NATO summit as its centerpiece.

The president spent Monday in the United Kingdom, meeting at Windsor Castle with King Charles III and in London with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

He met Tuesday with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, emphasizing his commitment to transatlantic cooperation, before he joined the NATO gathering.

“Nothing happens here that doesn’t affect us,” Biden told Nauseda. The White House said Nauseda presented Biden with the Order of Vytautas the Great, the highest award a Lithuanian president can bestow. Biden is the first U.S. president to receive it.

After the summit ends Wednesday, Biden will travel to Helsinki. On Thursday, he will celebrate Finland’s recent entry into NATO and meet with Nordic leaders.

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Ukraine’s dam collapse is both fast-moving disaster and slow-moving ecological catastrophe

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The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam was a fast-moving disaster that is swiftly evolving into a long-term environmental catastrophe affecting drinking water, food supplies and ecosystems reaching into the Black Sea.

The short-term dangers can be seen from outer space — tens of thousands of parcels of land flooded, and more to come. Experts say the long-term consequences will be generational.

For every flooded home and farm, there are fields upon fields of newly planted grains, fruits and vegetables whose irrigation canals are drying up. Thousands of fish were left gasping on mud flats. Fledgling water birds lost their nests and their food sources. Countless trees and plants were drowned.

If water is life, then the draining of the Kakhovka reservoir creates an uncertain future for the region of southern Ukraine that was an arid plain until the damming of the Dnieper River 70 years ago. The Kakhovka Dam was the last in a system of six Soviet-era dams on the river, which flows from Belarus to the Black Sea.

Then the Dnieper became part of the front line after Russia’s invasion last year.

“All this territory formed its own particular ecosystem, with the reservoir included,” said Kateryna Filiuta, an expert in protected habitats for the Ukraine Nature Conservation Group.

THE SHORT TERM

Ihor Medunov is very much part of that ecosystem. His work as a hunting and fishing guide effectively ended with the start of the war, but he stayed on his little island compound with his four dogs because it seemed safer than the alternative. Still, for months the knowledge that Russian forces controlled the dam downstream worried him.

The six dams along the Dnieper were designed to operate in tandem, adjusting to each other as water levels rose and fell from one season to the next. When Russian forces seized the Kakhovka Dam, the whole system fell into neglect.

Whether deliberately or simply carelessly, the Russian forces allowed water levels to fluctuate uncontrollably. They dropped dangerously low in winter and then rose to historic peaks when snowmelt and spring rains pooled in the reservoir. Until Monday, the waters were lapping into Mr. Medunov’s living room.

Now, with the destruction of the dam, he is watching his livelihood literally ebb away. The waves that stood at his doorstep a week ago are now a muddy walk away.

“The water is leaving before our eyes,” he told The Associated Press. “Everything that was in my house, what we worked for all our lives, it’s all gone. First it drowned, then, when the water left, it rotted.”

Since the dam’s collapse Tuesday, the rushing waters have uprooted landmines, torn through caches of weapons and ammunition, and carried 150 tons of machine oil to the Black Sea. Entire towns were submerged to the rooflines, and thousands of animals died in a large national park now under Russian occupation.

Rainbow-colored slicks already coat the murky, placid waters around flooded Kherson, the capital of southern Ukraine’s province of the same name. Abandoned homes reek from rot as cars, first-floor rooms and basements remain submerged. Enormous slicks seen in aerial footage stretch across the river from the city’s port and industrial facilities, demonstrating the scale of the Dnieper’s new pollution problem.

Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry estimated 10,000 hectares (24,000 acres) of farmland were underwater in the territory of Kherson province controlled by Ukraine, and “many times more than that” in territory occupied by Russia.

Farmers are already feeling the pain of the disappearing reservoir. Dmytro Neveselyi, mayor of the village of Maryinske, said everyone in the community of 18,000 people will be affected within days.

“Today and tomorrow, we’ll be able to provide the population with drinking water,” he said. After that, who knows. “The canal that supplied our water reservoir has also stopped flowing.”

THE LONG TERM

The waters slowly began to recede on Friday, only to reveal the environmental catastrophe looming.

The reservoir, which had a capacity of 18 cubic kilometers (14.5 million acre-feet), was the last stop along hundreds of kilometers of river that passed through Ukraine’s industrial and agricultural heartlands. For decades, its flow carried the runoff of chemicals and pesticides that settled in the mud at the bottom.

Ukrainian authorities are testing the level of toxins in the muck, which risks turning into poisonous dust with the arrival of summer, said Eugene Simonov, an environmental scientist with the Ukraine War Environmental Consequences Working Group, a non-profit organization of activists and researchers.

The extent of the long-term damage depends on the movement of the front lines in an unpredictable war. Can the dam and reservoir be restored if fighting continues there? Should the region be allowed to become arid plain once again?

Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrij Melnyk called the destruction of the dam “the worst environmental catastrophe in Europe since the Chernobyl disaster.”

The fish and waterfowl that had come to depend on the reservoir “will lose the majority of their spawning grounds and feeding grounds,” Mr. Simonov said.

Downstream from the dam are about 50 protected areas, including three national parks, said Mr. Simonov, who co-authored a paper in October warning of the potentially disastrous consequences, both upstream and downstream, if the Kakhovka Dam came to harm.

It will take a decade for the flora and fauna populations to return and adjust to their new reality, according to Ms. Filiuta. And possibly longer for the millions of Ukrainians who lived there.

In Maryinske, the farming community, they are combing archives for records of old wells, which they’ll unearth, clean and analyze to see if the water is still potable.

“Because a territory without water will become a desert,” the mayor said.

Further afield, all of Ukraine will have to grapple with whether to restore the reservoir or think differently about the region’s future, its water supply, and a large swath of territory that is suddenly vulnerable to invasive species — just as it was vulnerable to the invasion that caused the disaster to begin with.

“The worst consequences will probably not affect us directly, not me, not you, but rather our future generations, because this man-made disaster is not transparent,” Ms. Filiuta said. “The consequences to come will be for our children or grandchildren, just as we are the ones now experiencing the consequences of the Chernobyl disaster, not our ancestors.”

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Ukraine accuses Russia of destroying major dam near Kherson, warns of widespread flooding

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The wall of a major dam in a part of southern Ukraine that Moscow controls collapsed on June 6 after a reported explosion, sending water gushing downriver and prompting dire warnings of ecological damage as officials from both sides in the war ordered residents to evacuate.

Ukraine accused Russian forces of blowing up the dam and hydroelectric power station, while Russian officials blamed Ukrainian military strikes in the contested area.

The fallout could have far-reaching consequences: flooding homes, streets and businesses downstream; depleting water levels upstream that help cool Europe’s largest nuclear power plant; and draining supplies of drinking water to the south in Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed.

The dam break added a stunning new dimension to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, now in its 16th month. Ukrainian forces were widely seen to be moving forward with a long-anticipated counteroffensive in patches along more than 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) of frontline in the east and south of Ukraine.

It was not immediately clear whether either side benefits from the damage to the dam, since both Russian-controlled and Ukrainian-held lands are at risk of flooding. The damage could also potentially hinder Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south, while at the same time Russia depends on the dam to supply water to the Crimea region it annexed illegally in 2014.

A general view of the Nova Kakhovka dam that was breached in Kherson region, on Ukraine June 6, 2023 in this screen grab taken from a video obtained by Reuters.
| Photo Credit:
Reuters

Amid official outrage, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he convened an urgent meeting of the National Security Council. He alleged that Russian forces set off a blast inside the dam structure at 2.50 a.m. (2350 GMT) and said some 80 settlements were in danger.

Ukraine’s nuclear operator Energoatom said in a Telegram statement that the damage to the dam “could have negative consequences” for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is Europe’s biggest, but wrote that for now the situation is “controllable.”

The U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency said in a statement there was “no immediate risk to the safety of the plant,” which requires water for its cooling system.

It said that IAEA staff on site have been told the dam level is falling by 5 centimeters (2 inches) an hour. At that rate, the supply from the reservoir should last a few days, it said.

The plant also has alternative sources of water, including a large cooling pond than can provide water “for some months,” the statement said.

Ukrainian authorities have previously warned that the dam’s failure could unleash 18 million cubic meters (4.8 billion gallons) of water and flood Kherson and dozens of other areas where hundreds of thousands of people live.

The World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development, a Ukrainian nongovernmental organization, estimated that nearly 100 villages and towns would be flooded. It also reckoned that the water level would start dropping only after five-seven days.

A total collapse in the dam would wash away much of the broad river’s left bank, according to the Ukraine War Environmental Consequences Working Group, an organization of environmental activists and experts documenting the war’s environmental effects.

Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, said that “a global ecological disaster is playing out now, online, and thousands of animals and ecosystems will be destroyed in the next few hours.”

Villages ordered to evacuate

Videos posted online began testifying to the spillover. One showed floodwaters inundating a long roadway; another showed a beaver scurrying for high ground from rising waters.

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry called for residents of 10 villages on the Dnipro’s right bank and parts of the city of Kherson downriver to gather essential documents and pets, turn off appliances, and leave, while cautioning against possible disinformation.

The Russian-installed mayor of occupied Nova Kakhovka, Vladimir Leontyev, said it was being evacuated as water poured into the city.

Damaged buildings are seen as the Nova Kakhovka dam was breached in Kherson region, Ukraine on June 6, 2023 in this screen grab taken from a video obtained by Reuters

Damaged buildings are seen as the Nova Kakhovka dam was breached in Kherson region, Ukraine on June 6, 2023 in this screen grab taken from a video obtained by Reuters
| Photo Credit:
Reuters

Ukraine controls five of the six dams along the Dnipro, which runs from its northern border with Belarus down to the Black Sea and is crucial for the entire country’s drinking water and power supply.

Oleksandr Prokudin, the head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration, said in a video posted to Telegram shortly before 7 a.m. that “the Russian army has committed yet another act of terror,” and warned that water will reach “critical levels” within five hours.

Ukraine’s state hydro power generating company wrote in a statement that “The station cannot be restored.” Ukrhydroenergo also claimed that Russia blew up the station from inside the engine room.

Leontyev, the Russian-appointed mayor, said Tuesday that numerous Ukrainian strikes on the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant destroyed its valves, and “water from the Kakhovka reservoir began to uncontrollably flow downstream.” Leontyev added that damage to the station was beyond repair, and it would have to be rebuilt.

Ukraine and Russia have previously accused each other of targeting the dam with attacks, and last October Mr. Zelensky predicted that Russia would destroy the dam in order to cause a flood.

Authorities, experts and residents have for months expressed concerns about water flows through — and over — the Kakhovka dam.

In February, water levels were so low that many feared a meltdown at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, whose cooling systems are supplied with water from the Kakhovka reservoir held up by the dam.

By mid-May, after heavy rains and snow melt, water levels rose beyond normal levels, flooding nearby villages. Satellite images showed water washing over damaged sluice gates.



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