On Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Kursk

On Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Kursk

Post By World russia kursk incursion, Russia Ukraine war, Russia-Ukraine crisis, ukraine’s incursion into kursk

In the early hours of August 6, the regional government of Kursk, a federal subject of Russia that borders Ukraine to the west, sent an alarm on its Telegram channel asking residents to run for shelter from incoming missile attacks. Hours later, the channel posted images of dilapidated residential buildings, with a message from Alexey Smirnov, the Acting Governor of the region, “Tonight, the city of Sudzha was shelled from the Ukrainian side. Several residential buildings were severely damaged.” Ukraine had launched a surprise incursion into Russia’s southwestern province of Kursk, in the first ground invasion of the country or the erstwhile Soviet Union since World War II.

Though the Russian Ministry of Defence was quick to claim that it had repelled several raids by Ukrainian forces, equipped with almost a battalion’s worth of tanks and armoured vehicles, geolocated footage by the Washington DC-based Institute of Study of War (ISW) showed otherwise. In its August 7 update, the ISW said that the armoured vehicles had advanced to positions about 10 kilometres from the international border with Sumy of Ukraine. Russia’s line of fortification was clearly breached.

The implication of the attack

The attack, executed with great operational security, caught Moscow off-guard and raised questions of an intelligence failure. On August 7, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Kyiv of a “large-scale provocation” even as the Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov tried to down play the situation by stating that it was “largely under control”.

The Ukrainian forces continued their rapid advancement into Kursk in the subsequent days, seizing villages and capturing conscripts as they pushed forward. On August 16, they destroyed two bridges across the Seim. Another was struck on August 19.

As of August 19, according to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, his forces were in control of 92 settlements in Kursk and 1,250 square kilometres of Russian territory. Mr. Smirnov, apprising Mr. Putin of the situation on August 22, said that 1,33,190 people have been evacuated from these territories.

For Ukraine, the prolonged war, which has now dragged on for two-and-a-half years, took a turn for the worse in May this year as Russian forces began an offensive in Kharkiv — its second-largest city. Already losing ground in the east, where Moscow has continued its aggression since the beginning of the war, Kyiv now saw the battle lines stretching and was clearly on the back foot. The August 6 offensive was, in a way, its last attempt to alter battle dynamics.

The rationale

Strategically, the surprise incursion serves several purposes for Kyiv. It could be seen as a diversion tactic employed to force Russia to shift its forces from the ongoing offensive in the east or Kharkiv. The geographical significance of planning the attack on Kursk is also to be noted, as a ground invasion there would disrupt the movement of the Russian forces to Kharkiv, which is southeast of Sumy.

According to Mr. Zelenskyy, however, the aim of the operation was to “create a buffer zone” that would prevent further attacks from Russia across the border. As quoted by the ISW, Mr. Zelenskyy stated that Russian forces had conducted almost 2,100 artillery strikes from Kursk against Sumy since June 1.

If Kyiv manages to hold on to the buffer zone it has created through the territorial advancement made into Kursk, it may also act as leverage in the eventuality of any future negotiations with Moscow. This is of much more significance, especially at a time when the U.S., Kyiv’s biggest arms supplier, is going to the polls in November. Washington had put its security assistance to Kyiv on the back burner for months, as Congress was divided on the issue with the Republicans opposing further aid to Ukraine. In June, U.S. President Joe Biden even issued a public apology to Mr. Zelenskyy for the months-long hold-up.

Republican nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump, on the other hand, pledged in July to end the war by negotiating a deal with Kyiv and Moscow. Mr. Trump has always postured himself as someone who could end the war quickly, even though he has not made it clear how he intends to achieve it. His running mate J.D. Vance, meanwhile, is among the group of Republicans who advocate for dropping military aid to Kyiv. With Mr. Biden out of the presidential race and Mr. Trump’s victory not out of the picture, Kyiv knows that assistance from the U.S. may no longer be guaranteed post-November. Germany, Europe’s main supplier of aid to Kyiv, has also recently announced that it would cut down on the assistance in 2025. With several such uncertainties looming, Kyiv has been forced to make hay while the sun shines.

Whether or not the offensive ends up being a strategic success, Kyiv, by bringing the war directly to Russian territory, has announced to the world that Moscow’s theatre of war is not impregnable. It has made a statement before its arms suppliers and the rest of the world that Moscow has its vulnerabilities, akin to what the Prigozhin mutiny or Wagner Group rebellion exposed last year.

The Russian response

After initial efforts to play down the Kursk offensive, Moscow’s response to the situation has not been a direct one. Rather than redeploying its troops from the east to put a halt to the incursion in Kursk, it has stepped on the pedal in areas where it already had momentum and was making advancements.

Since the Kursk incursion, Moscow has made significant gains in its bid to siege the town of Pokrovsk, an important logistics hub that connects Kyiv’s frontlines in the east. In fact, it has claimed that it has already captured the town of Niu-York, another important logistics hub which is just 40 miles away from Pokrovsk. The fall of Pokrovsk, if it happens, could be a further boost to Moscow’s attempts to take full control of the Donetsk region, which it had declared annexed in 2022. For Putin, this would help in offsetting the nationalist backlash and counterbalance the losses in Kursk. The Russian military command has also beefed up the defence in Kursk by redeploying some forces from Kharkiv.

What lies ahead?

While Kyiv has shifted the war’s narrative through the surprise incursion, it remains to be seen what it will gain from the move in the long term. Whether a situation of diplomatic brinkmanship will give it an advantage in negotiations or whether Russia’s counteroffensive will shift the balance again is unknown at this point.

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Putin’s slow response to the Kursk attack could test the patience of some of his backers in Russia

Post By World putin ukraine attacks, Russia Ukraine war, Russia-Ukraine crisis

A year ago this week, President Vladimir Putin strode onto a stage in the Kursk region to commemorate the 80th anniversary of one of the Soviet army’s proudest moments in World War II.

Addressing a rapt audience that included soldiers fresh from fighting in Ukraine, Mr. Putin called the decisive victory in the Battle of Kursk “one of the great feats of our people.”

Now, as Russia prepares to celebrate the 81st anniversary of that 1943 battle, Kursk is again in the news — but for a very different reason.

On Aug. 6, Ukrainian forces made a lightning push into the region, seizing villages, taking hundreds of prisoners and forcing the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians. Russia was caught unprepared by the offensive and reportedly is drafting conscripts to repel some of Ukraine’s most battle-hardened units.

Mr. Putin has a history of responding slowly to various crises in his tenure, and he has so far played down the attack. But 2 1/2 years after l aunching a war in Ukraine to remove what he called a threat to Russia, it is his own country that seems more turbulent.

He appeared uneasy at an Aug. 12 televised meeting of his security staff about Kursk, cutting off the acting regional governor who had started listing the settlements seized by Ukraine. The President and his officials referred to “the events in the Kursk region” as a “situation,” or “provocation.”

State media fell into line, showing evacuees queueing for aid or donating blood, as if the events in Kursk were a humanitarian disaster and not the largest attack on Russia since World War II.

In his 24 years in power, Mr. Putin has portrayed himself as the only person who can guarantee Russia’s security and stability, but that image has suffered since the war began.

Russian cities have come under drone attacks and shelling from Kyiv’s forces. Mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin launched a brief uprising last year to try to oust his military leaders. Gunmen stormed a Moscow concert hall and killed 145 people in March.

The Kremlin has given tacit approval to a wide-ranging purge of Defense Ministry officials, with many facing corruption charges. Lower-level officers also are being arrested on fraud charges, including Lt. Col. Konstantin Frolov, a decorated airborne brigade commander. “I would rather be in Kursk … than here,” he said while being marched in handcuffs into a Moscow police station.

In another reminder that fortunes in Russia can change quickly, authorities started criminal cases against other officials and are seeking to confiscate land from some of the country’s wealthiest people in a posh area outside Moscow near a Putin residence.

While state TV drives the still-strong support for Putin despite setbacks like the Kursk incursion, it’s harder to gauge the opinions of his key constituency — Russia’s elites.

Putin is dependent on their acquiescence, said Ekaterina Schulmann, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

“The calculation that’s going on in their heads 24/7 is whether the status quo is to their advantage or not,” she said.

Since the war began, life for those elites — Mr. Putin’s inner circle, top bureaucrats, security and military officials, and business leaders — has gotten worse, not better. While many have been enriched by the war, they have fewer places to spend their money because of Western sanctions.

The question they are asking themselves about Mr. Putin, Ms. Schulmann said, “is whether the old man is still an asset or already a liability.”

Russia’s elites could be described as being in a state of “unhappy compliance,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. They are discontented with the status quo, he said, but fearful about who would win if there were to be a leadership struggle.

They could be hoping, the analysts said, that Mr. Putin’s reaction to the events in Kursk fits a pattern in which he is initially slow to respond to a crisis before eventually managing to prevail.

It’s something seen since his earliest days in power — starting with the sinking 24 years ago of a nuclear submarine that was named for the Battle of Kursk.

On Aug. 19, 2000, less than a year after Mr. Putin became President, the Kursk sank in the Barents Sea after one of its torpedoes exploded, killing all 118 sailors aboard. Mr. Putin stayed on vacation early in the crisis — setting off widespread criticism — and waited five days before accepting Western offers of help that might have saved some sailors who initially survived the explosion.

Mr. Putin also appeared sluggish in responding to the June 2023 uprising by Wagner chief Prigozhin in what became the most serious challenge to his authority yet.

After the mutiny fizzled, Prigozhin initially was allowed to remain free, but Ms. Schulmann said Mr. Putin eventually “got the last laugh” when the mercenary leader was killed a month later in a still-mysterious crash on his private plane.

As the Ukrainian offensive enters its third week, Putin sought to keep to his schedule and even embarked on a two-day trip to Azerbaijan, without mentioning the crisis. On Tuesday he briefly referred to it, promising “to fight those who commit crimes in the Kursk region.”

With domestic dissent stifled and with the media firmly under his control, Mr. Putin can afford to make the “absolutely cynical” decision to ignore what is happening in the Kursk region, Ms. Schulmann said.

Still, Mr. Putin’s hold on power “is unlikely to be weakened as a result of this humiliation,” wrote Eugene Rumer, senior fellow and the director of the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Program, in a commentary. “The entire Russian political and military establishment is complicit in his war and responsible for this disaster.”

The longer the Ukrainian offensive goes on, however, the more military and political challenges it presents.

Russia appears to be struggling to find suitable forces to repel the Ukrainian assault. Despite promising that conscripts wouldn’t be sent to the front, Russia is deploying them to the Kursk region with not enough training, according to a human rights group that helps draftees.

Analysts say reserves also are being called up, so that Russia can avoid pulling troops from Ukraine’s Donbas region, where Moscow’s forces are making slow progress.

The manpower shortage has seen authorities trying to entice Russians to serve by offering large salaries, drafting convicted criminals from prisons and recruiting foreigners inside the country.

As Ukraine presses its offensive, it could become difficult for the Kremlin to ignore the many consequences of the war. A key question, Gould-Davies said, is what happens if Russia’s elites conclude that the conflict is “unwinnable or if … it will never end while Putin is in power.”

In Sudzha, a Russian town in the Kursk region now controlled by Ukrainian troops, the suffering of residents was clear. AP reporters on a Ukrainian government-organized trip last week saw shelled buildings, a damaged natural gas pumping station, and elderly residents huddled in basements with their belongings and food — images similar to what’s been seen in Ukraine for the past 29 months.

It’s unclear for now whether the second battle of Kursk, like the first one, will become a turning point in the war that Mr. Putin launched.

But, Ms. Schulmann said, as one of a “series of unfortunate events, it adds up to the impression that things are not going well.”

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How Russia looked the wrong way as Ukraine invaded

Post By World Russia Ukraine war, Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia’s western border, surveillance and border fortifications, Ukraine’s invasion

In the hours before Ukrainian soldiers stormed across Russia’s western border, there was no sign from Moscow that anything was amiss.

At midnight at the start of August 6, the Russian Defence Ministry posted good news: more than 2,500 members of the regiment responsible for the capture of a town in eastern Ukraine would receive state awards for heroism.

Later that morning, as Ukraine began the biggest invasion of Russia since World War Two, the ministry published video showing General Valery Gerasimov, commander of the Russian war effort, visiting a different combat zone, also in Ukraine. He heard reports from commanders and set “tasks for further actions”, it said.

The footage did not specify the exact time of the visit, but revealed no concerns, or knowledge, of the events unfolding in Russia’s western Kursk region that threatened to upset Gerasimov’s plans and shift the course of the two-and-a-half-year war.

Panic spread quickly among local Russian residents in the early hours of the assault, despite repeated attempts by authorities to assure them that everything was under control, according to a timeline by Reuters of the first two days of the incursion, based on public statements, social media posts and analysis of video footage.

The idea that Ukraine could turn the tables on Russia and burst onto the territory of its much bigger neighbour seemed unthinkable to most observers before last week. The shock operation has raised questions about the effectiveness of Russia’s surveillance, as well as the calibre of its border fortifications and the forces guarding them.

Ukrainian servicemen repair a Armoured Personnel Carrier, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, near the Russian border in Sumy region.
| Photo Credit:
Reuters

“The Russians had a complete intelligence failure here,” French military expert Yohann Michel, research fellow at the IESD institute in Lyon, said in an interview.

With Ukraine’s forces retreating in eastern Ukraine, one of the most strategic sectors of the front line, Moscow may well have assumed Kyiv would not make a high-stakes gamble that even now it is far from clear will pay off, Michel said.

“I would understand if it was difficult for the Russians to think something that big could happen,” he said.

Ukrainian goals in Kursk include distracting Russian forces from the front line in the eastern region of Donetsk. Instead, fighting has intensified in that region in recent days, and the risks for Ukraine are rising as it tries to hold ground in Kursk.

A Russian member of parliament and former military officer, Andrei Gurulyov, said in a television interview two days after the incursion that Russian military leaders had been warned in a report about a month beforehand that there were signs of preparations for a Ukrainian attack, but it was not heeded.

The Russian defence ministry did not reply to requests for comment. Ukraine’s armed forces declined to comment about the ongoing operations, and the U.S. State Department, Pentagon and White House did not immediately respond to questions.

It was not until the afternoon of the following day, Aug. 7, that President Vladimir Putin and Gerasimov, his armed forces chief of staff, made their first public remarks on the Kursk events, which the Kremlin leader called “another major provocation” by Ukraine.

Gerasimov, fresh from his ill-timed trip, told Putin in the televised comments that Russian forces had “stopped” a force of up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers from thrusting deep inside Kursk region.

Ukrainian servicemen ride a military vehicle, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, near the Russian border in Sumy region.
| Photo Credit:
Reuters

Michel, the military analyst, said it was unclear whether Gerasimov was misinformed by his own subordinates, or whether he felt compelled to deliver good news to Putin in front of the TV cameras.

Russian officials in such staged settings “say what they think the boss wants to hear or to see in public at that specific moment”, Michel said.

‘We advise people to leave’

It took nearly 12 hours from the time of the incursion, which Gerasimov stated as 5:30 a.m. on Aug. 6, for the defence ministry to publicly acknowledge Ukraine had attacked the border, let alone broken through it.

It was left to Kursk’s acting regional governor Alexei Smirnov, only months into the job, to fill the communications vacuum and try to coordinate with the multiple defence and security agencies responsible for protecting the border.

In the first of many Telegram posts on Aug. 6, Smirnov issued missile warnings at 1:51 and 3:11 a.m. local time, urging residents to take cover. At 3:15, he said air defences had knocked out three incoming Ukrainian drones. At 6:16, 11 more.

Regions either side of the border have long grown used to tit-for-tat missile and drone attacks. But strikes against the Kursk region, recorded by Smirnov in Telegram posts, had been more than usually persistent for the previous 10 days. Among the targets hit were oil depots, power substations and, according to the Ukrainian military, a storage facility for weapons and military equipment.

Ukrainian servicemen ride military vehicles from a crossing point at the border with Russia, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Sumy region.
| Photo Credit:
Reuters

From about 5 a.m., alarm began to spread on social media. Locals posted that shelling in Sudzha, a Russian town on the border, had been going on for three hours.

“What’s going on with the lights? I’ve got no light or water,” said a woman posting as “Ekaterina Picasa”. A user called Denis reported nine explosions in Korenevo, about 26 km (16 miles) from the border.

Reuters made multiple attempts to contact residents via social media, but these were ignored or blocked.

A stream of posts appeared in “Native Sudzha”, a community channel on the social network VKontakte, but it was not clear whether the information was from official sources. “We advise people to leave the town,” said one such message at 7:34 a.m. People were warned to beware of drones and watch out for unexploded shells

By 8:15 a.m. Native Sudzha was reporting “active fighting on the border itself”. But a widely read Russian war blog was dismissive.

The “Two Majors” Telegram channel, followed by more than a million people, said a small group of “the enemy” had managed to get only as far as 300 metres inside Russia and was “being destroyed”. It suggested the operation was being staged by Ukrainian “TikTok units” as a media exercise.

Ukraine’s government has said little about the planning of the incursion.

In May, shortly after Russian troops crossed the border and seized territory in the nearby Kharkiv region, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief publicly warned of small groups of Russian forces gathering around the Sudzha area and said Moscow had planned an operation into Ukraine’s Sumy region from there.

Reuters could not independently verify whether Russia had been preparing an offensive into Sumy.

On Friday, Ukraine’s paratrooper corps said its fighters spent the first hours of the operation demining, breaching the border and destroying defensive lines, using aviation and artillery.

“Careful preparation, planning, surprise, fighting spirit and informational silence became decisive in the initial stage of the operation,” the Airborne Assault Troops said in an online post.

A Ukrainian soldier called Dmytro, 36, said he initially thought the Ukrainian army’s build-up was to prevent a Russian cross-border raid.

Instead, he found himself supporting the advance toward the border crossing near Sudzha after the assault units moved in, he said in an interview, giving his only first name in line with military protocol.

Ukrainian servicemen ride a military vehicle, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, near the Russian border in Sumy region.
| Photo Credit:
Reuters

“We worked to pre-empt them and they did not see this coming at all,” he said.

‘Under control’

Just after 10 a.m. governor Smirnov confirmed for the first time that Ukraine had attempted an incursion but said Russian soldiers and border guards of the FSB security service had “prevented” the border from being breached.

It was the first of numerous statements that were to be quickly disproved by events.

Just before noon, the defence ministry published its video of Gerasimov visiting Russian forward positions in Ukraine. On events in Kursk, it was silent.

So too was the Kremlin, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov on a summer break and reporters left without his usual daily briefing. As of Aug. 16, 10 days later, he had not returned to work.

“Tell me please, is it true that Ukrainian tanks have broken through to Sudzha and Darino?”, a user, “Nestik”, posted on Telegram.

A satellite image shows the Sudzha border crossing in Oleshnya, Kursk Region August 1, 2024 in this handout obtained August 8, 2024 by Reuters.
| Photo Credit:
2024 Planet Labs Inc/via Reuters

Smirnov posted that help was being provided to residents of areas that had been struck overnight by missiles and drones. “The situation is under control,” he wrote at 12:46 p.m.

About an hour later, Russian news agencies published the first word from the central authorities about the situation. It was from the FSB, saying Russia had “repelled an armed provocation.”

By now, however, an exodus was under way. Sudzha residents were “leaving en masse”, a woman called Anna said on Telegram.

“Of course. Everyone wants to live,” someone replied.

In the chaos, some were left behind. A search network, Liza Alert, said it has posted over 100 “missing” notices for people who have disappeared since Aug. 6, including many pensioners in their 70s and 80s.

Dragon’s teeth

Smirnov’s predecessor as governor, Roman Starovoit, had repeatedly told the public that Russia had boosted its border fortifications in Kursk region.

In December 2022, he posed in a snowy field beside pyramid-shaped “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank defences. The following month, he wrote: “Right now the risk of an armed invasion of the territory of Kursk region from Ukraine is not high. However, we are constantly working to strengthen the region’s defense capabilities.”

Yet last fall Ukraine’s National Resistance Center, created by the special operations forces, said in an online post that reconnaissance showed “almost all the strongholds are deserted of personnel and equipment” along the border with Kursk, and said corruption was a factor.

The video published by Ukraine’s paratroopers showed columns of armored vehicles pouring in through rows of dragon’s teeth, part of fortifications in Kursk that Russia media outlets have said cost 15 billion roubles ($168 million).

Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with Finland’s Black Bird Group, said the video appeared to show mine-clearing line charges blowing paths through minefields, dozer blades on armoured vehicles used to clear paths through the dragon’s teeth and bridging vehicles to cross ditches and small rivers.

“It’s clear that substantial amounts of different engineer equipment were prepared and used,” said Paroinen, who studies publicly available footage from the Russia-Ukraine war.

Brady Africk, a U.S. analyst mapping Russia’s defences, said those in Kursk region had fewer anti-vehicle ditches, obstacles and fighting positions when compared to Russian positions in occupied southern Ukraine, where a Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled last summer.

“It was likely easier for Ukrainian forces to progress around and through Russia’s fortifications in the region, especially if they were manned by fewer or poorly trained personnel,” he said.

Shared responsibility

Responsibility for defending the Russian border is shared between regular troops, FSB border forces and the national guard. Governor Smirnov was apparently referring to these various agencies when he said on mid-afternoon of the first day that he had met with “representatives of the security structures”.

Already, he was backtracking from his initial line that they had prevented the border from being pierced. “The situation in the border area remains difficult, but our defenders are successfully working to destroy the enemy,” Smirnov said.

At 5:05 p.m., the defence ministry mentioned the incursion for the first time and said Russia had transferred reserves to the area.

“Troops covering the state border, together with units of the border troops of the FSB of Russia, are repelling the attacks and inflicting fire on the enemy in the area of the state border and on its reserves in the Sumy region (of Ukraine),” it said.

At the briefing on Aug. 7, Gerasimov told Putin: “The operation will end with the smashing of the enemy, and (Russian forces) reaching the state border.”

Ten days later, with more than 100,000 Russians displaced and Ukraine claiming control of more than 1,000 sq km (390 sq miles) of Kursk region, Moscow’s forces are still far from achieving that goal. ($1 = 89.3705 roubles)

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Russia’s Putin says Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk is an attempt to stop Moscow’s eastern offensive

Post By World peace talks between Russia Ukraine, Russia, russia evacuates citizens ukraine attack, Russia Ukraine war, Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday (August 12, 2024) that the Ukrainian army’s incursion into the Kursk region, which has caused more than 100,000 civilians to flee and embarrassed the Kremlin, is an attempt by Kyiv to stop Moscow’s offensive in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region and gain leverage in possible future peace talks.

Russian forces are still scrambling to respond to the surprise Ukrainian attack after almost a week of fierce fighting, but Mr. Putin insisted Moscow’s army will prevail.

Speaking at a meeting with top security and defense officials, Mr. Putin said, “the attack that began August 6, 2024 appeared to reflect Kyiv’s attempt to gain a better negotiating position in possible future talks to end the war.”

He argued that Ukraine may have hoped to cause public unrest in Russia with the attack, adding that it has failed to achieve that goal, and claimed that the number of volunteers to join the Russian military has increased because of the assault. He said, “the Russian military is driving on with its eastern Ukraine offensive regardless.”

Also Read: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledges Ukraine’s military operation in Russia

“It’s obvious that the enemy will keep trying to destabilise the situation in the border zone to try to destabilise the domestic political situation in our country,” Mr. Putin said.

Acting Kursk Governor Alexei Smirnov reported to Mr. Putin that Ukrainian forces had pushed 12 kilometers (7.5 miles) into the Kursk region across a 40-kilometer (25-mile) front and currently control 28 Russian settlements.

Mr. Smirnov said that 12 civilians have been killed and 121 others, including 10 children, have been wounded in the operation. “About 121,000 people have been evacuated or left the areas affected by fighting on their own,” he said.

“Tracking down all the Ukrainian diversionary units roaming the region is difficult,” Mr. Smirnov said, noting that some are using fake Russian IDs.

The Governor of the Belgorod region adjacent to Kursk also announced the evacuation of people from a district near the Ukrainian border, describing Monday (August 12) morning as “alarming” but giving no detail.

Ukrainian forces swiftly rolled into the town of Sudzha about 10 kilometers (6 miles) over the border after launching the attack. They reportedly still hold the western part of the town, which is the site of an important natural gas transit station.

The Ukrainian operation is taking place under tight secrecy, and its goals — especially whether Kyiv’s forces aim to hold territory or are staging hit-and-run raids — remain unclear. The stunning maneuver that caught the Kremlin’s forces unawares counters Russia’s unrelenting effort in recent months to punch through Ukrainian defenses at selected points along the front line in eastern Ukraine.

Russia has seen previous incursions into its territory during the nearly 2 1/2-year war, but the foray into the Kursk region marked the largest attack on its soil since World War II, constituting a milestone in the hostilities. It is also the first time the Ukrainian army has spearheaded an incursion rather than pro-Ukraine Russian fighters.

The advance has delivered a blow to Mr. Putin’s efforts to pretend that life in Russia has largely remained unaffected by the war. State propaganda has tried to play down the attack, emphasising the authorities’ efforts to help residents of the region and seeking to distract attention from the military’s failure to prepare for the attack and quickly repel it.

Kursk residents recorded videos lamenting they had to flee the border area, leaving behind their belongings, and pleading with Mr. Putin for help. But Russia’s state-controlled media kept a tight lid on any expression of discontent.

Retired Gen. Andrei Gurulev, a member of the lower house of the Russian parliament, criticized the military for failing to properly protect the border.

“Regrettably, the group of forces protecting the border didn’t have its own intelligence assets,” he said on his messaging app channel. “No one likes to see the truth in reports, everybody just wants to hear that all is good.” The combat inside Russia rekindled questions about whether Ukraine was using weaponry supplied by NATO members. Some Western countries have balked at allowing Ukraine to use their military aid to hit Russian soil, fearing it would fuel an escalation that might drag Russia and NATO into war.

Though it’s not clear what weapons Ukraine is using across the border, Russian media widely reported that U.S. Bradley and German Marder armoured infantry vehicles were there. It was not possible to independently verify that claim.

Ukraine has already used U.S. weapons to strike inside Russia. But Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said in an interview published on Monday (August 12, 2024) that the weapons provided by his country “cannot be used to attack Russia on its territory”.

Meanwhile, German Defence Ministry spokesperson Arne Collatz said on Monday (August 12, 2024) that legal experts agree that “international law provides for a state that is defending itself also to defend itself on the territory of the attacker. That is clear from our point of view, too”.

Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Monday (August 12, 2024) that reinforcements sent to the area backed by air force and artillery had fended off seven attacks by Ukrainian units near Martynovka, Borki and Korenevo during the previous 24 hours.

The Ministry said, “Russian forces also blocked an attempt by Ukrainian mobile groups to forge deep into the Russian territory near Kauchuk.”

“Russian air force and artillery also struck concentrations of Ukrainian troops and equipment near Sudzha, Kurilovka, Pekhovo, Lyubimovo and several other settlements,” it said. “Warplanes and artillery hit Kyiv’s reserves in Ukraine’s Sumy region across the border,” it added.

Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group open-source intelligence agency, which monitors the war, said the toughest phase of Ukraine’s incursion is likely to begin now as Russian reserves enter the fray.

Ukraine’s progress on Russian territory “is challenging the operational and strategic assumptions” of the Kremlin’s forces, according to the Institute for the Study of War. It could compel Russia to deploy more military assets to the long border between the two countries, the Washington-based think tank said in an assessment late Sunday (August 11, 2024).

It described the Russian forces responding to the incursion as “hastily assembled and disparate”.

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Russia presses its offensive in Ukraine and issues new threats as the West tries to blunt the push

Post By World Russia Ukraine war, Russia’s fresh offensive in Kharkiv, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine Russia crisis, Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, West arms supply to Ukraine

Slowly but steadily this summer, Russian troops are forging through Ukraine‘s outgunned and undermanned defenses in a relentless onslaught, prompting the West to push for new weapons and strategies to shore up Kyiv.

That, in turn, has brought new threats by President Vladimir Putin to retaliate against the West — either directly or indirectly.

The moves by the West to blunt the offensive and the potential Kremlin response could lead to a dangerous escalation as the war drags through its third year — one that further raises the peril of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Probing offensive

Russia took advantage of its edge in firepower amid delays in U.S. aid to scale up attacks in several areas along the 1,000-km front. Relatively small units are probing Ukrainian defenses for weak spots, potentially setting the stage for a more ambitious push.

Russia’s offensive near Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, that began in May and worried Kyiv’s Western allies has apparently lost momentum after the Ukrainian army bolstered its forces in the area by redeploying troops from other sectors.

Meanwhile, Russia has made incremental but steady advances in the Donetsk region, including around the strategic hilltop town of Chasiv Yar, a gateway to parts of Donetsk still under Ukrainian control. Analysts say the fall of Chasiv Yar would threaten the key military hubs of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Putin declared that Moscow wasn’t seeking quick gains and would stick to the current strategy of advancing slowly.

Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute said that by stretching Ukrainian forces along a wide front, Russia is overcoming the limitations of its military that lacks the size and training for a major offensive.

The breadth of the strikes has forced Ukraine to spread out its artillery, “expending munitions to break up successive Russian attacks,” he said in an analysis. “Russia’s aim is not to achieve a grand breakthrough but rather to convince Ukraine that it can keep up an inexorable advance, kilometer by kilometer, along the front.” Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment said Russia’s apparent goal is to maintain pressure and try to stretch out Ukraine’s forces. He noted that even though Ukraine managed to stabilize the front line, it had to use reserves intended to be deployed elsewhere.

“It will take more and more time to actually regenerate Ukraine’s combat strength because of that,” he said in a recent podcast.

Moscow also has stepped up airstrikes on Ukraine’s energy facilities and other vital infrastructure with waves of missiles and drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the country had lost about 80% of its thermal power and one-third of its hydroelectric power in the strikes.

“This will be a growing problem when we talk about the future Ukraine’s economic viability,” Kofman said.

Watling said the shortage of air defenses is giving Ukraine a difficult choice between concentrating them to safeguard critical infrastructure, or protecting troops on the front.

“The persistence of Russia’s long-range strike campaign means that not only is the front being stretched laterally, but it is also being extended in its depth,” he said.

The West responds, the Kremlin counters

Washington and some NATO allies have responded to the offensive by allowing Kyiv to use Western weapons for limited strikes inside Russia. The U.S. has allowed Ukraine to use American weapons against military targets in Russia near Kharkiv and elsewhere near the border, but, to Kyiv’s dismay, Washington so far hasn’t given permission for strikes deeper in Russia.

French President Emmanuel Macron and some other Western officials argue that Kyiv has the right to use their equipment to attack military assets anywhere in Russia. There also has been talk by Macron and the leaders of NATO’s Baltic members — but not the U.S. — of deploying troops to Ukraine.

Putin warns that this would be a major escalation, and he threatened to retaliate by providing weapons to Western adversaries elsewhere in the world.

He reinforced that argument by signing a mutual defense pact with North Korea in June and holding the door open for arms supplies to Pyongyang.

He declared that just as the West says Ukraine can decide how to use Western weapons, Moscow could provide arms to North Korea and “similarly say that we supply something to somebody but have no control over what happens afterward” — an apparent hint at Pyongyang’s role as arms trader.

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, noted Moscow could arm anyone who considers the U.S. and its allies their enemies, “regardless of their political beliefs and international recognition.” Another threat of escalation followed a Ukrainian attack with U.S.-made ATACMS missiles that killed four and injured over 150 in Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. Russia’s Defense Ministry warned it could take unspecified measures against U.S. drones over the Black Sea that provide intelligence to Ukraine.

The nuclear threat and Putin’s long game. Putin said it was wrong for NATO to assume that Russia won’t use its nuclear arsenal, reaffirming it will use “all means” if its sovereignty and territorial integrity are threatened.

He also warned that Moscow was pondering possible changes to its doctrine that specifies when it resorts to nuclear weapons.

Underscoring that, Russia held military drills with battlefield nuclear weapons involving Belarus. Last year, Moscow deployed some of those weapons to Belarus to try to discourage Western military support for Ukraine.

A military defeat in Ukraine, Putin said, would deal a deadly blow to Russian statehood, and he vowed to press his goals “to the end.”

He declared that for Russia to halt the fighting, Ukraine must withdraw its troops from the four regions that Moscow annexed in 2022, an idea Kyiv and its allies dismissed. He also said Ukraine must abandon its bid to join NATO.

Hawkish Russian commentators criticized Putin for failing to respond forcefully to NATO ramping up support for Kyiv and allowing the West to continuously push back Russia’s red lines. Some argued that if the damage grows from Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia with longer-range Western missiles, Moscow should hit NATO assets.

Vasily Kashin, a Moscow-based defense analyst, noted that while Ukraine already had used Western weapons to inflict limited damage, Putin will “have to do something if there are cruise missile strikes deep inside Russian territory resulting in significant casualties.” Russia could respond by targeting Western drones or U.S. spy satellites, or also strike some NATO countries’ assets in overseas territories to minimize triggering an all-out conflict with the alliance, Kashin said.

Other Russian commentators argued, however, that such action fraught with triggering a direct conflict with NATO isn’t in Moscow’s interests.

Moscow-based security analyst Sergei Poletaev said the Kremlin aims to steadily drain Ukrainian resources to force Kyiv into accepting a peace deal on Russia’s terms.

While nothing spectacular is happening on the front line, he said, “constant dropping wears away a stone.”

Moscow’s military advantage allows it to “maintain pressure along the entire front line and make new advances while waiting for Ukraine to break down,” he said in a commentary Lacking the resources for a major offensive, the Kremlin has opted for slow advances, aiming to “keep pressure on Ukraine while warding off the West from direct involvement in hostilities,” Poletaev said.

“We must walk the razor’s edge between our victory and a nuclear war,” he said.

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Death of Indians in Russia-Ukraine war Status and accountability of mercenaries in international law

Post By World Death of Indians in Russia-Ukraine war, Indians killed in ukraine war, Russia Ukraine war, Russia-Ukraine crisis, Russia-Ukraine war deaths, Russia-Ukraine war fatalities, Russia-Ukraine war Indian deaths, ukraine war, ukraine war news

The story so far: On June 11, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) acknowledged the tragic loss of two Indian nationals who were recruited by the Russian Army amidst the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The MEA in a press statement said that the Indian Embassy in Moscow has strongly raised this issue with the Russian Ambassador in New Delhi and authorities in Moscow, urging for the swift release and return of all Indian nationals currently serving with the Russian Army.

In February, The Hindu reported for the first time that Indians were getting killed while fighting on behalf of Russia in the Ukraine war. Over the past year, nearly 100 Indians have been recruited by the Russian Army after being reportedly duped by agents with the lure of money and a Russian passport. Contracts signed by these recruits stipulate a “no leave or exit policy” before six months of service, with salaries amounting to ₹1.5 lakh to ₹ 2 lakh per month. In January, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree simplifying the process of obtaining Russian citizenship for foreigners who sign a minimum one-year contract with the Army.

At least 30 Indians have so far contacted the MEA and the Indian Embassy in Moscow, seeking help to return. These tragic deaths highlight a disturbing reality — Indians are increasingly falling prey to labour trafficking rackets after being unable to secure jobs domestically, leading to their recruitment as mercenaries in international armed conflicts.

The MEA’s response

The MEA has issued a press note advising Indians to exercise caution while seeking employment opportunities in Russia. In March, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) said that it had filed a first information report (FIR) booking 15 individuals and four companies for their alleged role in the “trafficking of gullible Indian nationals to Russia and duping them for better employment and high-paying jobs.” In May, the central agency divulged that it had made four arrests in the case.

Who are mercenaries?

The distinction between conventional combatants and mercenaries is a fundamental cornerstone of international humanitarian law (IHL). A combatant is typically a member of the armed forces of a party to the conflict, whereas a mercenary is recruited from a third-party state unrelated to the conflict. Mercenaries usually engage in hostilities motivated primarily by personal gain as opposed to the virtues of patriotism associated with regular combatants. Article 47 of Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions (API) envisages six cumulative conditions for a person to qualify as a mercenary. The person i) should be specially recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict, ii) has taken a direct part in the hostilities, iii) is motivated to take part in the hostilities essentially by the desire for private gain and, in fact, is promised, by or on behalf of a party to the conflict, material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar ranks and functions in the armed forces of that party, iv) is neither a national of a party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a party to the conflict, v) is not a member of the armed forces of a party to the conflict, vi) has not been sent by a state which is not a party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces.

Under customary IHL, being a mercenary itself does not constitute a specific crime. However, if captured, mercenaries are not entitled to prisoner-of-war status or any protected categories under the Geneva Conventions. This allows for their prosecution for the commission of war crimes or other grave breaches of humanitarian law. They may also face charges under the domestic laws of the detaining nation. Nevertheless, mercenaries qualify for humane treatment in accordance with the fundamental guarantees of humanitarian law, as outlined under Article 75 of the API.

However, over time, African states began expressing reservations about this definition, as it only addressed international armed conflicts and overlooked civil wars, where mercenary activities were most prevalent. This led to the adoption of the Organization of African Unity Convention for the Elimination of Mercenarism in Africa in 1977, which included a more expansive definition of mercenaries.

Similarly, in 1989, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) adopted the International Convention against the Recruitment, Use, Financing and Training of Mercenaries that criminalised the recruitment, use, financing and training of mercenaries and also promoted inter-State cooperation in this regard. It also widened the definition of mercenaries as provided under the API to include “persons recruited for the purpose of participating in a concerted act of violence aimed at overthrowing a government or otherwise undermining the constitutional order of a State, or at undermining the territorial integrity of a State.”

Limitations of the existing regime

One of the major challenges of the existing regulatory regime is the lack of a clear, unequivocal, and comprehensive legal definition of what constitutes a mercenary. This is compounded by the fact that the domestic laws of most states do not criminalise mercenary activity. Additionally, the definition outlined under Article 47 of the API does not include within its ambit foreign military personnel integrated into the armed forces of another state — such as the Gurkhas (soldiers from Nepal who have served in the British Army since the 1800s). It also fails to establish mechanisms for holding accountable foreigners employed as advisors and trainers.

Dr. Shubha Prasad, Assistant Professor of International Relations at the Hertie School, Berlin highlighted the emerging trend of private military and security companies (PMSCs) gradually taking over roles previously associated with mercenaries. “These for-profit companies provide a range of services from combat to food supplies for troops. The legal framework surrounding the operations of PMSCs is more loosely defined and relies heavily on a country’s domestic legal capacity,” she said.

For instance, the operations of the controversial Wagner Group in Russia have been increasingly subjected to international scrutiny. Despite being registered as a private entity, it reportedly includes Russian army veterans among its ranks. While the direct participation of the Wagner Group has been evident in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the Kremlin had never formally acknowledged its connections with it. This has posed challenges in calling for accountability and assessing whether the group qualifies as a mercenary organisation. However, following the military corporation’s aborted attempt at a coup last year, President Putin acknowledged that it had received tens of billions of roubles in public money from the government.

“Signatories to the Montreux Doctrine have committed to stronger state oversight of private military and security actors. States are obliged to check whether PMSCs comply with international humanitarian and human rights laws. However, neither India nor Russia is a signatory to this document. That does not preclude India from imposing tighter restrictions on the recruitment of Indian nationals for such enterprises. Furthermore, we need stronger international legal frameworks to safeguard individuals who are coerced or misled into contracting with PMSCs,” Dr. Prasad added.

The way forward

According to Dr. Prasad, the Indian government should develop a robust policy framework to address distress migration and implement strict measures against human trafficking. “India should adopt a two-pronged approach,” she suggested. “Long-term preventive measures should target the underlying economic factors that are driving people to leave the country, while immediate measures should prioritise educating the public and ensuring strong pre-travel vetting for Indians going to Russia or other conflict zones.”

For instance, she pointed out that pre-travel approval from the MEA for travel to Russia could be another measure to check if there are suspicious cases of human trafficking. This will also enable the identification of companies that are exploiting Indians, she added.

In 2012, neighbouring Bangladesh implemented the Dhaka Principles for Migration with Dignity which provides a roadmap for ethical overseas recruitment of migrants. The Nepal government in January banned its citizens from travelling to Russia or Ukraine for employment after 10 young men were killed and dozens more reported missing while fighting, predominately in the Russian military.

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Ukraine peace summit opens in Switzerland with low expectations

Post By World Russia Ukraine war, Ukraine peace summit, Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

On a rainy, misty, damp day up in the Alpine resorts in Burgenstock, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tried portraying an upbeat mood. At the inaugural global summit hosted by Switzerland to find a ‘path to peace’ 52 months since the Russian invasion, Mr. Zelenskyy hoped this dialogue would find a resolution to the war. Even though there were notable absentees in the room including Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was not invited by the Swiss.

“Even If they are not here today at the first summit, we have succeeded in bringing back to the world the idea that joint efforts can stop war and establish just peace. This idea will definitely work because the world has power,” Mr. Zelenskyy said.

In his initial remarks to the press at the Media Centre close to the talks venue, Mr. Zelenskyy stressed that ‘views, ideas and leadership of each nation are equally important’. However, the Ukrainian President refused to take questions before the official inaugural ceremony.

“Everything that will be agreed upon today at the summit will be part of the peacemaking process that we all need. I believe that we will witness history being made at the summit,” Mr. Zelenskyy said.

First initiated at the Bali G-20 summit in 2021 and followed up with four rounds of talks between National Security Advisors, the attendance count at the first two-day summit in Switzerland stood at 101 countries and organisations including 57 heads of state. The conference kicked off on Saturday afternoon with a plenary session. And on Sunday, working groups will discuss three key agendas — nuclear safety, freedom of shipping and food safety, and humanitarian aspects including prisoners of war. India has shied away from political representation, sending its senior diplomat in charge of the region instead. Brazil, the G-20 Chair is attending it only as an Observer with the envoy present.

Speaking at the event, U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris said: “Russia’s aggression is not only an attack on the lives and freedom of the people of Ukraine. It is not only an attack on global food security and energy supplies. Russia’s aggression is also an attack on international rules and norms and the principles embodied in the UN charter.“

“If the world fails to respond when an aggressor invades its neighbour, other aggressors will undoubtedly be emboldened. It leads to the potential of a war, of conquest, of chaos,” she added.

“Europe is strong in its presence here at the summit. But that is not all. India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Kenya and Mexico are also here among others,” Swiss President Viola Amherd said pointing to the wide canvass of representation at the talks amid criticisms of a fractious summit.

While the leaders tom-tom the historic significance of the summit, the expectations remain low key and the mood grim.

Low on expectations

Lotte Krank-van de Burgt, a journalist with the Finnish broadcaster YLE says her people can only hope that the conflict does not further escalate and spill over to immediate neighbours like Finland who have long shared good relations with Russia but are no longer on speaking terms.

“I would not say life has changed so much but maybe we are more worried about our big neighbour in the east. We are more worried about Russia than we have ever been before because it was such a shock that the war started, that they could attack a sovereign country. Everybody was thinking it could have been us also.”

She points to reports of Russian incursions into Finnish and more recently Swedish air space to stress that Moscow is reminding its neighbours of its presence in the region and the looming fear of what could come next.

Liliane Bivings is living the fear daily in Kyiv where she first moved as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer in 2017. After COVID-19, she joined the Kyiv Post but as the newsroom shut down when the war began, the team launched Kyiv Independent.

“Right now the situation is quite difficult. The war can be felt quite intensely even in Kyiv which is far from the frontline,” she says with residents subjected to ten hours or more of power outages daily that disrupt their lives and livelihoods. But Ms. Bivings is not hopeful of the summit throwing up concrete solutions with Russia not in the room.

“I don’t want to be too pessimistic but am probably not expecting outcomes. Not just because Russia is not here but mostly because the situation in Ukraine on the battlefield isn’t really one that is conducive to any kind of negotiations,” she said.

“Russia is in a relatively stronger position on the battlefield right now. It does not have any reason to come to the negotiating table. Also there is no appetite in Ukraine yet to give up anything to Russia,” she adds.

On Friday, ahead of the Swiss summit, Mr. Putin demanded the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson for peace negotiations to begin. Ukraine slammed the offer. Ms. Bivings argues Burgenstock will hardly lead to any start of public negotiations between the two warring sides, even on humanitarian issues like swapping of children or prisoners.

“Putin just said that the path to peace for Russia is Ukraine giving up a bunch of territory, and surrendering and giving up any NATO aspirations. Ukraine is not going to do that not only because people don’t want that, but because it will be a bad move for European security, global security,” she says.

Elsewhere in Europe a certain sense of war fatigue is setting in and the gains made by far-right parties in European parliament elections is a sign of worry. The refugee crisis is a divisive issue. Add to it uncertainties about the United States’s policy on Ukraine should Republican contender Donald Trump get a shot back at power and the war persists.

“No one is expecting a peace treaty, that was not on the program anyway. But presence of these highly ranked politicians is a big sign,” says Johannes Ritter of the German Daily FAZ striking a more positive note. But he agrees the economic costs of the war is dragging down the initial high level support on display by ordinary people in Europe.

“We have had an energy crisis which has not really been resolved. We had high inflation which dampened the economic development and led to some insecurity. So one has to be strong and tell people why this is happening. And why it is right to support Ukraine. And why it is more important politically to act than to secure only one’s own wealth,” Mr. Ritter says.

India and the world is looking at the prolonged conflict with increasing worries even as another conflict continues in West Asia. Some 2,000 Ukrainian refugees have sought shelter in Japan more than 8,000 km away. This is a high number compared to refugees in the past welcomed by Tokyo which has taken a pro-Ukrainian stand. In an important move signalling Japanese pride, Toyota ended its vehicle production at its Saint Petersburg plant in Russia in September 2022. Today Prime Minister Kishida is at the Swiss meet confirming his support to Kyiv.

“Japan is looking for some clue which will eventually lead to some ceasefire negotiations in which Ukraine and Russia will both participate. They have to come up with some ideas that eventually will lead to any kind of platform that Russia and Ukraine will both join to talk,” says Masaki Kondo, Senior Editor of Jiji Press.

Switzerland, after not sending an invitation to Russia, has tried a course correction by saying that eventually Moscow will be brought into the fold of talks. The path to peace is under progress and will take a long time to rebuild. Meanwhile, in the midst of summer, Europeans are wary of another long winter looming large.

Smita Sharma is an independent journalist based in Delhi

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Ukraine gets more military aid from Europe but Putin warns of consequences if Russian soil is hit

Post By World EU support Ukraine, european support ukraine, Hungary Ukraine veto, Luis Montenegro, NATO Russia Ukraine war, Netherlands Russia Ukraine war, Portugal Ukraine support, Russia Ukraine war, ukraine and portugal, ukraine defence, Ukraine Europe Union, ukraine military equiment, Ukraine military equipment, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, volodymyr zelenskyy europe

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (left) and Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro (right) shake hands following the signing of bilateral agreements, at the Sao Bento Palace, the premier’s official residence in Lisbon on May 28, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy received a second $1 billion promise of military aid in as many days on May 28 during a whirlwind tour of three European Union countries, while President Vladimir Putin warned that hitting Russian soil with Western-supplied weapons could set the war on a dangerous new path.

The aid pledge for 2024 came from Belgium, which topped up the money with a commitment to give Ukraine 30 F-16 fighter jets in the next four years.

“Our task is to use the first F-16 on the battlefield this year and in such way fortify our positions,” Mr. Zelenskyy said.

He later traveled to Portugal, where he said it was important that Ukraine’s supporters don’t allow themselves to be misled by Russia and that “we don’t grow tired of the war.”

The onslaught by the Kremlin’s better-equipped forces that is unfolding in eastern and northeastern Ukraine as summer approaches has brought Ukraine its biggest military test since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

Slow deliveries of support by its Western partners, especially a lengthy delay in U.S. military aid, have left Ukraine at the mercy of Russia’s bigger army and air force.

European countries have been discussing the possibility of deploying troops to Ukraine in support roles, while talk of giving seized Russian assets to Ukraine has further angered Moscow.

Mr. Putin has repeatedly warned the West against deeper involvement in the fighting, holding out the specter of a nuclear conflict.

The use of Western-supplied long-range weapons by Ukraine to strike Russian territory could bring a dangerous escalation, Mr. Putin said on May 28, speaking to reporters while on a trip to Uzbekistan.

The use of such weapons would rely on Western intelligence data and imply the involvement of NATO military personnel, Mr. Putin said, warning the alliance that they should be aware of the possible consequences.

“Representatives of countries that are NATO members, particularly in Europe, should be aware of what they are playing with,” he said, adding that “countries with small territory and dense populations” should be particularly careful.

The Netherlands promised to quickly assemble with key E.U. partners a Patriot air defense system, which Mr. Zelenskyy sees as key in stopping Russia from hitting Ukraine’s power grid and civilian areas, as well as military targets, with devastating glide bombs.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg welcomed the move but insisted much more work was needed.

“We have seen some progress, but more progress and more air defense systems are urgently needed in Ukraine,” Mr. Stoltenberg said as he headed into a meeting of E.U. Defence Ministers.

Before returning to Ukraine, Mr. Zelenskyy visited Portugal and signed another bilateral agreement. Portugal is one of Western Europe’s poorest countries and has a small military compared with its bigger E.U. partners. Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro said Portugal is sending a further 126 million euros ($137 million) in military and financial aid to Kyiv as part of a broad cooperation plan.

On May 27, Mr. Zelenskyy signed a security agreement with Spain that allocates 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) of military aid to Ukraine in 2024, and 5 billion euros ($5.4 billion) by 2027.

The bilateral aid is essential since the 27-nation bloc is again struggling to overcome Hungary’s objections to the E.U. itself providing billions of euros in military aid to Kyiv.

An estimated 6.5 billion euros ($7 billion) are stalled by the Hungarian government of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, considered Russia’s staunchest ally in the E.U. Single member states have wide veto powers, and Hungary has long held up funds aimed at boosting Ukraine’s defenses.

“That’s the sad thing that we have the cash, we have the capacity, but we are still pending decisions to implement” aid decisions for Ukraine, said E.U. foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.

Mr. Zelenskyy met with Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, and as well as the immediate money, he obtained a security agreement aimed at providing guarantees of military help until Ukraine joins NATO.

Since Russia launched a spring offensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region, Mr. Zelenskyy has insisted Ukraine urgently needs seven more U.S.-made Patriot air defence systems.

Mr. Putin says the Kremlin’s forces are seeking to establish a “buffer zone” in Kharkiv to prevent Ukraine launching attacks across the border there.

Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren, meeting with her E.U. colleagues, said a Patriot system will be built “in a short time frame.” The Netherlands has the core components for a Patriot system and other E.U. nations will contribute other key parts and munitions.

“Ukraine is also fighting Europe’s fight,” she said.

Mr. Zelenskyy was to visit Belgium and Spain earlier this month but postponed all his foreign trips after Russia launched its Kharkiv offensive and left Ukrainian forces reeling.

In other developments, the U.N.’s atomic agency’s chief was in Russia’s westernmost territory of Kaliningrad to talk about safety issues involving the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine.

The plant has been occupied by the Russian forces since early in the war, and all of its reactors have been in a cold shutdown. Frequent shelling around Europe’s largest nuclear plant has raised global concerns over nuclear security.

International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Grossi met with Alexei Likhachyov, head of Russia’s state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom. The Russian state news agency RIA Novosti quoted Mr. Grossi as saying that “common understanding” has been reached on the steps that are necessary to enhance the plant’s security, but restarting it “seems impossible” at the moment.

Mr. Likhachyov echoed his sentiment on restarting the plant, but also vowed its current state is “absolutely safe.”

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Putin replaces Shoigu as Russia’s Defence Minister as he starts his fifth term

Post By World News about Sergei Shoigu, putin news, russia cabinet reshuffle, Russia Defence Minister, russia news, Russia Ukraine war, Russia’s new Defence Minister, sergei shoigu, Vladimir Putin, Vladimir Putin fifth term, Vladimir Putin removes Sergei Shoigu from Russian defence ministry

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 12 replaced Sergei Shoigu as Defence Minister in a Cabinet shakeup that comes as he begins his fifth term in office.

In line with Russian law, the entire Russian Cabinet resigned on Tuesday following Mr. Putin’s glittering inauguration in the Kremlin, and most members have been widely expected to keep their jobs, while Mr. Shoigu’s fate had appeared uncertain.

Mr. Putin signed a decree on Sunday appointing Mr. Shoigu as secretary of Russia’s Security Council, the Kremlin said. The appointment was announced shortly after Mr. Putin proposed Andrei Belousov to become the country’s Defence Minister in place of Mr. Shoigu.

The announcement of Mr. Shoigu’s new role came as 13 people were reported dead and 20 more wounded in Russia’s border city of Belgorod, where a 10-story apartment building partially collapsed after what Russian officials said was Ukrainian shelling. Ukraine has not commented on the incident.

Mr. Belousov’s candidacy will need to be approved by Russia’s Upper House in parliament, the Federation Council. It reported on Sunday that Mr. Putin introduced proposals for other Cabinet positions as well but Mr. Shoigu is the only Minister on that list who is being replaced. Several other new candidates for Federal Ministers were proposed on Saturday by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, reappointed by Mr. Putin on Friday.

Mr. Shoigu’s deputy, Timur Ivanov, was arrested last month on bribery charges and was ordered to remain in custody pending an official investigation. The arrest of Mr. Ivanov was widely interpreted as an attack on Mr. Shoigu and a possible precursor of his dismissal, despite his close personal ties with Mr. Putin.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday that Mr. Putin had decided to give the Defence Minister role to a civilian because the Ministry should be “open to innovation and cutting-edge ideas.” He also said the increasing defence Budget “must fit into the country’s wider economy,” and Mr. Belousov, who until recently served as the first Deputy Prime Minister, is the right fit for the job.

Mr. Belousov, 65, held leading positions in the finances and economic department of the Prime Minister’s office and the Ministry of Economic Development. In 2013, he was appointed an adviser to Mr. Putin and seven years later, in January 2020, he became first deputy Prime Minister.

Mr. Peskov assured that the reshuffle will not affect “the military aspect,” which “has always been the prerogative of the Chief of General Staff,” and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, who currently serves in this position, will continue his work.

Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said in an online commentary that Mr. Shoigu’s new appointment to Russia’s Security Council showed that the Russian leader viewed the institution as “a reservoir” for his “‘former’ key figures — people who he cannot in any way let go, but does not have a place for.”

Figures such as former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev have also been appointed to the security council. Mr. Medvedev has served as the body’s deputy chairman since 2020.

Mr. Shoigu was appointed to the Security Council instead of Nikolai Patrushev, Mr. Putin’s long-term ally. Mr. Peskov said Sunday that Mr. Patrushev is taking on another role, and promised to reveal details in the coming days.

Mr. Shoigu has been widely seen as a key figure in Mr. Putin’s decision to send Russian troops into Ukraine. Russia had expected the operation to quickly overwhelm Ukraine’s much smaller and less-equipped army and for Ukrainians to broadly welcome Russian troops.

Instead, the conflict galvanised Ukraine to mount an intense defence, dealing the Russian army humiliating blows, including the retreat from an attempt to take the capital, Kyiv, and a counteroffensive that drove Moscow’s forces out of the Kharkiv region.

Before he was named Defence Minister in 2012, Mr. Shoigu spent more than 20 years directing markedly different work: In 1991, he was appointed head of the Russian Rescue Corps disaster-response agency, which eventually became the Ministry of Emergency Situations. He became highly visible in the post. The job also allowed him to be named a general even though he had no military service behind him as the rescue corps absorbed the militarised Civil Defence Troops.

Mr. Shoigu does not wield the same kind of power as Mr. Patrushev, who has long been the country’s top security official. But the position he will take — the same position that Patrushev worked to transform from a minor bureaucratic role to a place of sizable influence — will still carry some authority, according to Mark Galeotti, head of the Mayak Intelligence consultancy.

High-level security materials intended for the President’s eyes will still pass through the Security Council Secretariat, even with changes at the top. “You can’t just institutionally turn around a bureaucracy and how it works overnight,” he said.

Thousands of civilians have fled Russia’s renewed ground offensive in Ukraine’s northeast that has targeted towns and villages with a barrage of artillery and mortar shelling, officials said Sunday.

The intense battles have forced at least one Ukrainian unit to withdraw in the Kharkiv region, capitulating more land to Russian forces across less defended settlements in the so-called contested gray zone along the Russian border.

By Sunday afternoon, the town of Vovchansk, among the largest in the northeast with a prewar population of 17,000, emerged as a focal point in the battle.

Volodymyr Tymoshko, the head of the Kharkiv regional police, said that Russian forces were on the outskirts of the town and approaching from three directions.

An AP team, positioned in a nearby village, saw plumes of smoke rising from the town as Russian forces hurled shells. Evacuation teams worked nonstop throughout the day to take residents, most of whom were older, out of harm’s way.

At least 4,000 civilians have fled the Kharkiv region since Friday, when Moscow’s forces launched the operation, Gov. Oleh Syniehubov said in a social media statement. Heavy fighting raged Sunday along the northeast front line, where Russian forces attacked 27 settlements in the past 24 hours, he said.

Analysts say the Russian push is designed to exploit ammunition shortages before promised Western supplies can reach the front line.

Ukrainian soldiers said the Kremlin is using the usual Russian tactic of launching a disproportionate amount of fire and infantry assaults to exhaust Ukrainian troops and firepower. By intensifying battles in what was previously a static patch of the front line, Russian forces threaten to pin down Ukrainian forces in the northeast, while carrying out intense battles farther south where Moscow is also gaining ground.

It comes after Russia stepped up attacks in March targeting energy infrastructure and settlements, which analysts predicted were a concerted effort to shape conditions for an offensive.

The Russian Defence Ministry said Sunday that its forces had captured four villages on the border along Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, in addition to five villages reported to have been seized on Saturday. These areas were likely poorly fortified because of the dynamic fighting and constant heavy shelling, easing a Russian advance.

Ukraine’s leadership hasn’t confirmed Moscow’s gains. But Tymoshko, the head of the Kharkiv regional police, said that Strilecha, Pylna and Borsivika were under Russian occupation, and it was from their direction they were bringing in infantry to stage attacks in other embattled villages of Hlyboke and Lukiantsi.

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The Hindu Morning Digest, March 14, 2024

Post By World BJP Second List Lok Sabha, Citizenship Amendment Act, Donald Trump Joe BIden, Electoral Bonds SBI, ferocious dogs pets India, Google AI Gemini, India United Kingdom FTA, Mamata Banerjee, Mamata Banerjee brother, PM Modi Lok Sabha campaign, Russia Ukraine war, simultaneous elections, simultaneous elections panel Kovind, The Hindu, the hindu morning digest, the hindu news, TikTok United states, Vladimir Putin

BJP workers celebrate after the announcement of Union Minister for Road Transport and Highway Nitin Gadkari’s name as the party’s candidate from Nagpur constituency for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, in Nagpur, on March 13, 2024.
| Photo Credit: PTI

Ram Nath Kovind-led panel may submit report on simultaneous polls on March 14

The high-level committee on ‘’one nation one election”, headed by former President Ram Nath Kovind, may submit its report on simultaneous polls on March 14. There is no official word on the submission but a source indicated that the Kovind panel may submit its report to President Droupadi Murmu. The report is likely to recommend amending relevant articles of the Constitution and/or adding new sections to enable holding of simultaneous polls in the country.

Lok Sabha election 2024 | Gadkari, Piyush, Anurag in fray in BJP second list

The BJP released its second list of candidates for the coming Lok Sabha polls, featuring Union Ministers Nitin Gadkari contesting from Nagpur, Anurag Thakur from Hamirpur in Himachal Pradesh, Pralhad Joshi from Dharwad and Piyush Goyal, who is also the Leader of the House in the Rajya Sabha, from Mumbai North. The list of 72 candidates covered 10 States and one union territory, with all seats now declared for Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Tripura and Uttarakhand.

CAA helpline soon: Home Ministry

The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) said it would soon launch a helpline to assist applicants for Indian citizenship under the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), 2019. Users are required to register on the portal (https://indiancitizenshiponline.nic.in). A mobile application, ‘CAA-2019’, has also been readied. All documents, along with photographs are to be uploaded online, and applications will be processed after a background check by security agencies and the payment of ₹50.

U.S. House passes bill that would lead to a TikTok ban if Chinese owner doesn’t sell

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill that would lead to a nationwide ban of the popular video app TikTok if its China-based owner doesn’t sell, as lawmakers acted on concerns that the company’s current ownership structure is a national security threat. The lawmakers contend that ByteDance is beholden to the Chinese government, which could demand access to the data of TikTok’s consumers in the U.S. any time it wants.

Bulldogs, rottweilers, terriers may face ban

An expert committee constituted by the Department of Animal Welfare and Husbandry, Ministry of Agriculture, has recommended that certain breeds of “ferocious dogs” be prohibited from being kept as pets. An official letter has gone out from the department to all States listing out these dog breeds as well as instructions to no longer register licences that permit their sale.

Modi, Sunak assess progress on India-U.K. FTA negotiations

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak spoke over the phone, assessing the progress made on negotiating a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), as both countries face general elections. On Tuesday, Mr. Modi tweeted that he and Mr. Sunak had reaffirmed their commitment to the “early conclusion” of a “mutually beneficial” agreement.

Will publish details of electoral bonds ‘in time’, asserts CEC Rajiv Kumar

Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar said the Election Commission of India (EC) has received details from the State Bank of India (SBI) on the electoral bonds, in the wake of the recent Supreme Court order. Speaking in Jammu, Mr. Kumar said the EC will share all relevant information in time. “They have given us the details in time. I will go back and look at the data, and would definitely disclose it in time,” Mr. Kumar said.

Mamata snaps ties with brother and party rebel Babun Banerjee

West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress chairperson Mamata Banerjee said that she was disowning and snapping ties with her younger brother Swapan Banerjee who is popularly known as Babun Banerjee. The Chief Minister’s remarks came a day after her brother said he would contest the Lok Sabha polls against Trinamool Congress candidate Prasun Banerjee as an independent.

PM Modi to kickstart BJP Lok Sabha poll campaign from Congress President Kharge’s home turf in Karnataka

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will kickstart the BJP’s Lok Sabha poll campaign in Karnataka by addressing a public meeting in Kalaburagi on March 16, the party’s state general secretary V. Sunil Kumar said. Karnataka is the most important State for the BJP in south India as it’s only here that it had held power in the past.

Stop speaking lies about CAA: BJP to Opposition leaders

The BJP accused the Opposition parties of stoking communal passion by speaking “lies” about the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), as the Modi government came under attack over its implementation. Former Union Minister and BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad hit out at the Opposition leaders including Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee for their fierce criticism of the law and maintained that it takes away no Indian’s citizenship or job.

Russia is ready for nuclear war, says Putin

Russia remains in a state of combat readiness and is fully ready for a nuclear war, but not “everything is rushing to it” at present, President Vladimir Putin said in remarks published. In an interview with state media, Mr. Putin, who launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is nearly certain to win the March 15 to 17 presidential election, said Russia would be ready to use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty was threatened. “From a military-technical point of view, we are, of course, ready,” Mr. Putin said.

Trump clinches GOP nomination for third consecutive U.S. Presidential election, setting up rematch with Biden

Donald Trump, whose single turbulent term in the White House transformed the Republican Party, tested the resilience of democratic institutions in the U.S. and threatened alliances abroad, will lead the GOP in a third consecutive presidential election after clinching the nomination. Mr. Trump’s victory in the GOP primary ushers in what will almost certainly be an extraordinarily negative general election campaign that will tug at the nation’s already searing political and cultural divides. He’ll face President Joe Biden in the fall, pitting two deeply unpopular figures against each other in a rematch of the 2020 campaign that few voters say they want to experience again.

Google restricts AI chatbot Gemini from answering queries on global elections

Google is restricting AI chatbot Gemini from answering questions about the global elections set to happen this year, the Alphabet-owned firm said on Tuesday, as it looks to avoid potential missteps in the deployment of the technology. When asked about elections such as the upcoming U.S. presidential match-up between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Gemini responds with “I’m still learning how to answer this question. In the meantime, try Google Search”.

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