Tag: Russia Ukraine war

The Hindu Morning Digest, March 14, 2024

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BJP workers celebrate after the announcement of Union Minister for Road Transport and Highway Nitin Gadkari’s name as the party’s candidate from Nagpur constituency for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, in Nagpur, on March 13, 2024.
| Photo Credit: PTI

Ram Nath Kovind-led panel may submit report on simultaneous polls on March 14

The high-level committee on ‘’one nation one election”, headed by former President Ram Nath Kovind, may submit its report on simultaneous polls on March 14. There is no official word on the submission but a source indicated that the Kovind panel may submit its report to President Droupadi Murmu. The report is likely to recommend amending relevant articles of the Constitution and/or adding new sections to enable holding of simultaneous polls in the country.

Lok Sabha election 2024 | Gadkari, Piyush, Anurag in fray in BJP second list

The BJP released its second list of candidates for the coming Lok Sabha polls, featuring Union Ministers Nitin Gadkari contesting from Nagpur, Anurag Thakur from Hamirpur in Himachal Pradesh, Pralhad Joshi from Dharwad and Piyush Goyal, who is also the Leader of the House in the Rajya Sabha, from Mumbai North. The list of 72 candidates covered 10 States and one union territory, with all seats now declared for Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Tripura and Uttarakhand.

CAA helpline soon: Home Ministry 

The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) said it would soon launch a helpline to assist applicants for Indian citizenship under the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), 2019. Users are required to register on the portal (https://indiancitizenshiponline.nic.in). A mobile application, ‘CAA-2019’, has also been readied. All documents, along with photographs are to be uploaded online, and applications will be processed after a background check by security agencies and the payment of ₹50. 

U.S. House passes bill that would lead to a TikTok ban if Chinese owner doesn’t sell

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill that would lead to a nationwide ban of the popular video app TikTok if its China-based owner doesn’t sell, as lawmakers acted on concerns that the company’s current ownership structure is a national security threat. The lawmakers contend that ByteDance is beholden to the Chinese government, which could demand access to the data of TikTok’s consumers in the U.S. any time it wants.

Bulldogs, rottweilers, terriers may face ban

An expert committee constituted by the Department of Animal Welfare and Husbandry, Ministry of Agriculture, has recommended that certain breeds of “ferocious dogs” be prohibited from being kept as pets. An official letter has gone out from the department to all States listing out these dog breeds as well as instructions to no longer register licences that permit their sale.

Modi, Sunak assess progress on India-U.K. FTA negotiations

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak spoke over the phone, assessing the progress made on negotiating a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), as both countries face general elections. On Tuesday, Mr. Modi tweeted that he and Mr. Sunak had reaffirmed their commitment to the “early conclusion” of a “mutually beneficial” agreement.

Will publish details of electoral bonds ‘in time’, asserts CEC Rajiv Kumar

Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar said the Election Commission of India (EC) has received details from the State Bank of India (SBI) on the electoral bonds, in the wake of the recent Supreme Court order. Speaking in Jammu, Mr. Kumar said the EC will share all relevant information in time. “They have given us the details in time. I will go back and look at the data, and would definitely disclose it in time,” Mr. Kumar said.

Mamata snaps ties with brother and party rebel Babun Banerjee

West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress chairperson Mamata Banerjee said that she was disowning and snapping ties with her younger brother Swapan Banerjee who is popularly known as Babun Banerjee. The Chief Minister’s remarks came a day after her brother said he would contest the Lok Sabha polls against Trinamool Congress candidate Prasun Banerjee as an independent.

PM Modi to kickstart BJP Lok Sabha poll campaign from Congress President Kharge’s home turf in Karnataka

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will kickstart the BJP’s Lok Sabha poll campaign in Karnataka by addressing a public meeting in Kalaburagi on March 16, the party’s state general secretary V. Sunil Kumar said. Karnataka is the most important State for the BJP in south India as it’s only here that it had held power in the past.

Stop speaking lies about CAA: BJP to Opposition leaders

The BJP accused the Opposition parties of stoking communal passion by speaking “lies” about the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), as the Modi government came under attack over its implementation. Former Union Minister and BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad hit out at the Opposition leaders including Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee for their fierce criticism of the law and maintained that it takes away no Indian’s citizenship or job.

Russia is ready for nuclear war, says Putin

Russia remains in a state of combat readiness and is fully ready for a nuclear war, but not “everything is rushing to it” at present, President Vladimir Putin said in remarks published. In an interview with state media, Mr. Putin, who launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is nearly certain to win the March 15 to 17 presidential election, said Russia would be ready to use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty was threatened. “From a military-technical point of view, we are, of course, ready,” Mr. Putin said.

Trump clinches GOP nomination for third consecutive U.S. Presidential election, setting up rematch with Biden

Donald Trump, whose single turbulent term in the White House transformed the Republican Party, tested the resilience of democratic institutions in the U.S. and threatened alliances abroad, will lead the GOP in a third consecutive presidential election after clinching the nomination. Mr. Trump’s victory in the GOP primary ushers in what will almost certainly be an extraordinarily negative general election campaign that will tug at the nation’s already searing political and cultural divides. He’ll face President Joe Biden in the fall, pitting two deeply unpopular figures against each other in a rematch of the 2020 campaign that few voters say they want to experience again.

Google restricts AI chatbot Gemini from answering queries on global elections

Google is restricting AI chatbot Gemini from answering questions about the global elections set to happen this year, the Alphabet-owned firm said on Tuesday, as it looks to avoid potential missteps in the deployment of the technology. When asked about elections such as the upcoming U.S. presidential match-up between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Gemini responds with “I’m still learning how to answer this question. In the meantime, try Google Search”.

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Pentagon to give Ukraine $300 million in weapons even as it lacks funds to replenish U.S. stockpile

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The Pentagon will rush about $300 million in weapons to Ukraine after finding some cost savings in its contracts, even though the military remains deeply overdrawn and needs at least $10 billion to replenish all the weapons it has pulled from its stocks to help Kyiv in its desperate fight against Russia, the White House announced on March 12.

It’s the Pentagon’s first announced security package for Ukraine since December, when it acknowledged it was out of replenishment funds. It wasn’t until recent days that officials publicly acknowledged they weren’t just out of replenishment funds, but $10 billion overdrawn.

Also read: Is the Ukraine war changing world order? | Explained

The announcement comes as Ukraine is running dangerously low on munitions and efforts to get fresh funds for weapons have stalled in the House because of Republican opposition. U.S. officials have insisted for months that the United States wouldn’t be able to resume weapons deliveries until Congress provided the additional replenishment funds, which are part of the stalled supplemental spending bill.

The replenishment funds have allowed the Pentagon to pull existing munitions, air defense systems and other weapons from its reserve inventories under presidential drawdown authority, or PDA, to send to Ukraine and then put contracts on order to replace those weapons, which are needed to maintain U.S. military readiness.

“When Russian troops advance and its guns fire, Ukraine does not have enough ammunition to fire back,” said national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in announcing the $300 million in additional aid.

In Pictures | A look back at the two years of Russia – Ukraine war

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The Pentagon also has had a separate Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, or USAI, which has allowed it to fund longer-term contracts with industry to produce new weapons for Ukraine.

Senior defense officials who briefed reporters said the Pentagon was able to get cost savings in some of those longer-term contracts of roughly $300 million and, given the battlefield situation, decided to use those savings to go ahead and send more weapons. The officials said the cost savings basically offset the new package and keep the replenishment spending underwater at $10 billion.

One of the officials said the package represented a “one time shot” — unless Congress passes the supplemental spending bill, which includes roughly $60 billion in military aid for Ukraine, or more cost savings are found. It is expected to include anti-aircraft missiles, artillery rounds and armor systems, the official said.

The aid announcement comes as Polish leaders are in Washington to press the U.S. to break its impasse over replenishing funds for Ukraine at a critical moment in the war. Polish President Andrzej Duda met Tuesday with Democratic and Republican leaders in the House and Senate and was to meet with President Joe Biden later in the day.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has so far refused to bring the $95 billion package, which includes aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, to the floor. Seeking to put pressure on the Republican speaker, House Democrats have launched a long-shot effort to force a vote through a discharge petition. The seldom-successful procedure would require support from a majority of lawmakers, or 218 members, to move the aid package to a vote.

Ukraine’s situation has become more dire, with units on the front line rationing munitions as they face a vastly better supplied Russian force. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly implored Congress for help, but House Republican leadership has not been willing to bring the Ukraine aid to the floor for a vote, saying any aid must first address border security needs.

Pentagon officials said Monday during budget briefing talks they were counting on the supplemental to cover the $10 billion replenishment hole.

“If we don’t get the $10 billion we would have to find other means,” Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said. “Right now we’re very much focused on the need for that supplemental.”

This is the second time in less than nine months that the Pentagon has “found” money to use for additional weapons shipments to Ukraine. Last June, defense officials said they had overestimated the value of the weapons the U.S. had sent to Ukraine by $6.2 billion over the past two years.

At the time, Pentagon officials said a review found that the military services used replacement costs rather than the book value of equipment that was pulled from Pentagon stocks and sent to Ukraine. The discovery resulted in a surplus that the department used for presidential drawdown packages until the end of December.

The United States has committed more than $44.9 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden administration, including more than $44.2 billion since the beginning of Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24, 2022.

The Pentagon is $10 billion overdrawn in the replenishment account in part due to inflationary pressures, and in part because the new systems the Pentagon is seeking to replace the old systems with cost more, such as the upcoming Precision Strike Missile, or PrSM, which the Army is buying to replace the long-range Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS.

The vast majority of those munitions have come from Army stockpiles due to the nature of the conventional land war in Ukraine.

The months without further shipments of U.S. support have hurt operations, and Ukrainian troops withdrew from the eastern city of Avdiivka last month, where outnumbered defenders had withheld a Russian assault for four months.

CIA Director William Burns told Congress that entire Ukrainian units have told him in recent days of being down to their last few dozen artillery shells and other ammunition. Burns called the retreat from Avdiivka a failure of ammunition resupply, not a failure of Ukrainian will.

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Russia-Ukraine War: How Russia and the World Navigate Two Years of Conflict

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Two years on, where does the Ukraine war stand?

Russia’s war in Ukraine has entered its third year. What many thought on February 24, 2022 would be a swift Russian military operation against its smaller neighbour has turned out to be the largest land war in Europe since the end of the Second World War. This is no longer about Russia and Ukraine. This is now a proxy conflict between Russia and NATO, a trans-Atlantic nuclear alliance. Two years since the war began, where does it stand today, and how it’s transforming Russia and the world?

If one looks back at the beginning of the war, it’s not difficult to see that President Vladimir Putin made a grave strategic miscalculation when he ordered the invasion of Europe’s second largest country with less than 2,00,000 troops. Mr. Putin probably expected a quick victory, like he did in Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014. But that did not happen.

In 2022, Russians were forced to retreat from Kharkiv and Kherson. The West doubled down on its military and economic support for Ukraine. Russia had declared “demilitarisation” and “denazification” of Ukraine as their objectives. Ukraine wanted to push back the invading troops and recapture the lost territories, including Crimea. The West wanted to use Ukrainian forces to bleed out Russian troops and weaken Russia as a great power. The wheels of war were grinding on. Who is meeting their objectives today?

Ukraine last year launched an ambitious counteroffensive with advances weapons from the West. Their plan was to make swift advances into Russia’s line of defence in the south and destroy Mr. Putin’s land bridge that connects the Donbas with Crimea.

Eight months after counteroffensive began, it’s now evident that the campaign has failed. Gen. Velery Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s former commander in chief who was fired by President Zelensky, had called for a mass mobilisation, suggesting that Ukraine was facing acute shortage of fighters on the frontline. They lost many of their West-supplied weapons in the counteroffensive and are waiting for fresh supplies. Ukraine is almost entirely dependent on the West for critical supplies, but aid from the U.S., the single largest supporter of Ukraine, is stuck in Congress amid growing Republican opposition.

On the other side, the Russians are on the offensive. In December, Russia claimed its first victory since the capture of Bakhmut in May when it seized Maryinka. Earlier this month, Ukraine was forced to abandon Avdiivka, a strategically important town in Donetsk. The Russians are now advancing westward in Donetsk and piling up pressure on Ukrainian forces in Krynky, Kherson, in the south.

The message from the battlefield is alarming for Ukraine and its partners in the West.

Editorial |Endless war: On the Russia-Ukraine war

Take a look at the West’s strategy. The West, or NATO to be specific, had taken a two-fold approach towards Ukraine. One was to provide economic and military assistance to Kyiv to keep the fight against Russia going on; and the second leg was to weaken Russia’s economy and war machine through sanctions. With Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive and a changing political climate in Washington with the prospect of a second Trump presidency looming, the first pillar of this policy faces uncertainty, if not absolute peril. The second pillar, sanctions, has hurt Russia badly. Western officials believe that sanctions have deprived Russia of over $430 billion in revenue it would otherwise have gained since the war began. Europe has also curtailed its energy purchases from Russia. Sanctions have also made it difficult for Moscow to acquire critical technologies, including microchips, which are necessary for its defence industry.

But this is not the whole story.

Russia has found several ways to work around sanctions and keep its economy going. When Europe cut energy sales, Russia offered discounted crude oil to big growing economies such as China, India and Brazil. It amassed a ghost fleet of ships to keep sending oil to its new markets without relying on western shipping companies and insurers. It set up shell companies and private corporations operating in its neighbourhood (say Armenia or Turkey) to import dual use technologies which were re-exported to Russia to be used in defence production. China, the world’s second largest economy, ramped up its financial and trade ties with Russia, including the export of dual use technologies. Russia moved away from the dollar to other currencies, mainly the Chinese yuan, for trade, and boosted defence and public spending at home (its defence budget was raised by nearly 70% this year).

Does it mean that everything is going well for Mr. Putin? No it doesn’t.

Since the war began, two countries in its neighbourhood, Sweden and Finland, have joined NATO, expanding the alliance’s border with Russia. Now, if you look at the Baltic Sea, all basin countries, except Russia, are practically NATO members, which makes it look like a NATO lake.

Mr. Putin spent years, after coming to power, to build strong economic ties with Europe, which are now in tatters. Russia’s hold on its immediate neighbourhood is also loosening, which was evident in tensions with Armenia and the latter’s decision to freeze participation in the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Russia is also increasingly becoming dependent on China, even though the Kremlin is careful not to upset the sensitivity of New Delhi.

But how does India look at the war?

India’s ties with Russia have multi-dimensions. While the energy aspect of this partnership, which flourished after the war, is seen largely opportunistic, the defence side is structural. India also sees Russia, a Eurasian powerhouse, as an important long-term strategic partner in tackling its continental challenges. But the elephant in the room was China.

Russia’s deepening ties with China triggered different arguments on India’s choices. One section argued that the growing synergy between Russia and China should serve as a wake-up call for India to revisit its Russia policy. Others, including yours truly, argued that India would be wary of pushing Russia deeper into China’s embrace by toeing the anti-Russian Western line.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar explained India’s thinking on this matter at the Raisina Dialogue recently. The world must give Russia more options, rather than “closing doors” on it and pushing it towards a closer embrace with China, Mr. Jaishankar said. The Minister’s comments underscored India’s concerns about a deepening China-Russia partnership, but his policy prescriptions were nuanced. “What’s happened today with Russia is essentially a lot of doors have been shut to Russia in the West,” he said. “We know the reasons why Russia is turning to parts of the world which are not West. Now, I think it makes sense to give Russia multiple options.”

Meaning, India’s ties with Russia are here to stay and expand, irrespective of what its western partners think of Moscow.

Script and presentation: Stanly Johny

Production: Richard Kujur

Video: Thamodharan B.

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Ukraine claims it has sunk another Russian warship in the Black Sea using high-tech sea drones

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Handout footage shows what Ukrainian military intelligence said is the Russian Black Sea Fleet patrol ship Sergey Kotov that was damaged by Ukrainian sea drones, at sea, at a location given as off the coast of Crimea, in this still image obtained from a video released on March 5, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Ministry of Defence of Ukraine/Handout via REUTERS

Ukraine claimed on March 5 it has sunk another Russian warship in the Black Sea using high-tech sea drones as Kyiv’s forces continue to take aim at targets deep behind the war’s front line. Russian authorities did not confirm the claim.

The Ukrainian military intelligence agency said a special operations unit destroyed the large patrol ship Sergey Kotov overnight. The ship, which Ukraine said was commissioned in 2021 and was hit near the Kerch Strait, reportedly can carry cruise missiles and around 60 crew.

Also read: Is the Ukraine war changing world order? | Explained

The sinking of such a modern ship would be a significant loss and an embarrassing blow for Moscow, even though there are dozens of other vessels in its Black Sea fleet.

Patrol boats such as the Sergey Kotov are part of Russia’s countermeasures against drone attacks, according to an article published last month by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a U.S. think tank. The vessels use radar and a helicopter to detect and destroy drones using grenade launchers and heavy machine guns, it said.

Kyiv’s forces are struggling to keep the better-provisioned Russian Army at bay at some points along the largely static 1,500-km front line, but are also taking aim at targets far beyond the battlefield.

In the Black Sea, Ukrainian successes against enemy warships have pushed the Russian fleet away from the coast, allowing Ukraine to set up a grain export corridor.

The Ukraine Defence Ministry posted on X, formerly Twitter, a video of what it said was the nighttime attack on the Sergey Kotov using Magura V5 uncrewed vessels that are designed and built in Ukraine and laden with explosives.

The Ukrainian claims could not immediately be independently verified, and disinformation has been a feature of the fighting that broke out after Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour in February 2022.

The private security firm Ambrey said the attack took place at the port of Feodosia, in Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Ambrey said it has seen footage taken by a crew member on a merchant vessel in the port, showing the Sergey Kotov firing at the drones.

The ship was hit at least twice, with the second strike resulting in a large blast, Ambrey reported.

Last month, Ukraine claimed it twice sank Russian warships using drones. On Feb. 1, it claimed to have sunk the Russian missile-armed corvette Ivanovets, and on Feb. 14 it said it destroyed the Caesar Kunikov landing ship. Russian officials did not confirm those claims.

Kyiv officials say some 20% of Russian missile attacks on Ukraine are launched from the Black Sea, and hitting Russian ships there is embarrassing for Moscow.

Almost a year ago, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, the Moskva guided-missile cruiser, sank after it was heavily damaged in a missile attack.

In Pictures | A look back at the two years of Russia – Ukraine war

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Zelensky hosts Western leaders in Kyiv as Ukraine marks 2 years since Russia’s full-scale invasion

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Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed Western leaders to Kyiv on February 24 to mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, as Ukrainian forces run low on ammunition and weaponry and foreign aid hangs in the balance.

Mr. Zelensky posted a video from the Hostomel airfield together with Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as well as the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

“Two years ago, here, we met enemy landing forces with fire; two years later, we meet our friends and our partners here,” Mr. Zelensky said at the airport just outside of Kyiv, which Russian paratroopers unsuccessfully tried to seize in the first days of the war.

The Western leaders arrived shortly after a Russian drone attack struck a residential building in the southern city of Odesa, killing at least one person. Three women also sustained severe burns in the attack on Friday evening, regional Governor Oleh Kiper wrote on his social media account. Rescue services combed through the rubble looking for survivors.

Italy, which holds the rotating presidency of the Group of Seven leading economies, announced that the G-7 will meet virtually on February 24 with Mr. Zelensky and would adopt a joint statement on Ukraine.

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“More than ever we stand firmly by Ukraine. Financially, economically, militarily, morally. Until the country is finally free,” Ms. von der Leyen said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

On the front line in the eastern Donetsk region, Ukrainian soldiers pleaded for ammunition.

“When the enemy comes in, a lot of our guys die. … We are sitting here with nothing,” said Volodymyr, 27, a senior officer in an artillery battery.

“In order to protect our infantry … we need a high number of shells, which we do not have now,” said Oleksandr, 45, a commander of an artillery unit. The two officers only gave their first names, citing security concerns.

In a message on the war’s second anniversary, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, thanked Ukrainian soldiers for their sacrifices and Western allies for their support, saying, “Every projectile, every tank, every armoured vehicle is, first of all, saving the life of a Ukrainian soldier.”

Earlier this month, Mr. Zelensky fired top military commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi and replaced him with Syrskyi, marking the most significant shakeup of top brass since the full-scale invasion.

Authorities also pointed to successes, including the downing of a Russian early warning and control aircraft on February 23.

If confirmed, it would mark the loss of the second such aircraft in just over a month. The Ukrainian military says Russia uses the aircraft to direct missile attacks.

The war has also come to Russia. Drones hit a steel plant in the Lipetsk region in southern Russia on February 24, causing a large fire, regional Governor Igor Artamonov said, adding there are no casualties. Independent Russian media said the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant is the largest steel plant in Russia. Videos shared on Russian social media showed several fires burning at the plant, and an explosion could be heard.

Independent Russian news outlet Mediazona said on February 24 that around 75,000 Russian men died in 2022 and 2023 fighting in the war.

A joint investigation published by Mediazona and Meduza, another independent Russian news site, indicates that the rate of Russia’s losses in Ukraine is not slowing and that Moscow is losing around 120 men a day. Based on a statistical analysis of the recorded deaths of soldiers compared with a Russian inheritance database, the journalists said around 83,000 soldiers are likely to have died in the two years of fighting.

According to Mediazona and Meduza‘s analysis, regular Russian troops sustained the heaviest losses in the first months of the war. But, after prisoners were offered their freedom in exchange for fighting and after President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial mobilization, those groups started to sustain more casualties, particularly in the early months of 2023.

A somber mood hangs over Ukraine as the war against Russia enters its third year and Kyiv’s troops face mounting challenges on the front line amid dwindling ammunition supplies and personnel challenges. Its troops recently withdrew from the strategic eastern city of Avdiivka, handing Moscow one of its biggest victories.

Russia still controls roughly a quarter of the country after Ukraine failed to make any major breakthroughs with its summertime counteroffensive. Meanwhile, millions of Ukrainians continue to live in precarious circumstances in the crossfire of battles, and many others face constant struggles under Russian occupation. Most are waiting for a Ukrainian liberation that hasn’t come.

Olena Zelenska, the President’s wife, said on February 24 that more than 2 million Ukrainian children have left the country since the war began and that at least 528 have been killed. “The war started by Russia deliberately targets children,” she said.

Britain has pledged an additional 8.5 million pounds ($10.8 million) of humanitarian aid to Ukraine, bolstering efforts to provide medical care, food and basic services to residents as the nation marks the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

About 14.6 million people, or 40% of Ukraine’s population, need assistance, with many left homeless or without adequate access to food, water and electricity, Britain’s Foreign Office said in announcing the aid.

In the U.S. Congress, Republicans have stalled $60 billion in military aid for Kyiv, desperately needed in the short term. The EU recently approved a 50 billion-euro (about $54 billion) aid package for Ukraine meant to support Ukraine’s economy, despite resistance from Hungary.

President Joe Biden tied the loss of the defensive stronghold of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region after months of gruelling battles to the stalled U.S. aid. Fears have since spiked that Ukrainian forces will face similar difficulties across other parts of the 1,000-km front line as they come under mounting pressure from Russian assaults.

Despite a heavy crackdown on dissent, some Russians marked the anniversary by laying flowers at Moscow monuments or holding anti-war signs in the streets.

According to OVD-Info, a Russian rights group that tracks political arrests and provides legal aid, at least five people were arrested in Moscow on February 24 while holding signs saying “No to war” or attending a weekly demonstration calling for the return of mobilized Russian soldiers from Ukraine.

Police also detained a young woman who brought flowers in Ukraine’s national colours, blue and yellow, to a Moscow monument to victims of political repression, OVD-Info reported.

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Valerii Zaluzhnyi | Fall of the ‘Iron General’

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When Valerii Zaluzhnyi was appointed Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Force of Ukraine in July 2021, there was uncertainty on whether the crisis in the eastern Donbas region, where a civil war was raging between Russia-backed separatists and Kyiv’s troops, would escalate into a full-blown war. U.S. intelligence had warned Kyiv that the Russians were planning an invasion. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the comedian-turned-politician who was elected President of Ukraine in April 2019, was sceptical. But Gen. Zaluzhnyi was not ready to take a chance. “There was the smell of war in the air,” he recalled those days in an interview later. And his job was to prepare his troops, who lost Crimea in 2014 without even a fight, for the coming big war.

Seven months after Gen. Zaluzhnyi, who cut his teeth as a top commander in Donbas, took over as the Commander-in-Chief, President Vladimir Putin of Russia launched his ‘special military operation’. In the run-up to the war, many of its allies, including the U.S., thought that Ukraine’s troops would fold before the mighty Russians, and relocated their embassies from Kyiv to the western city of Lviv, on the Polish border. But not Gen. Zaluzhnyi. “For me, the war started in 2014 (when Russia annexed Crimea). I did not run away then, I am not going to run away now,” he told the Americans in February 2022. Russia made some territorial gains in the initial days of the war, but the Ukrainian defence did not crumble as many had expected.

Russian troops were stopped in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. This allowed Ukraine’s Western partners to reassess their strategies and start sending supplies to Ukrainian troops to counter-attack Russia. Gen. Zaluzhnyi’s popularity rose. While Mr. Zelenskyy emerged as the face of Ukraine’s war abroad, Gen. Zaluzhnyi became a national hero. ‘The Iron General’, memes celebrated his popularity on social networks. ‘Ukraine could win this war,’ wrote pundits. The President “allows his Generals to run the show without direct interferences into military business”, a former Minister said, referring to the bonhomie between Mr. Zelenskyy and Gen. Zaluzhnyi. But none of these lasted long.

On February 8, weeks before the second anniversary of the Russian invasion, Mr. Zelenskyy sacked Gen. Zaluzhnyi as the Commander-in-Chief at a time when the Ukrainian forces were struggling to defend the frontline that stretches from Kharkhiv in the northeast to Kherson in the south. The President had earlier asked the General to step down as part of an attempt to “reorganise” the armed forces, but the latter refused. Then came the dismissal. Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskiy is the new boss.

The rise

Born in 1973 into a military family in northern Ukraine, which was then part of the Soviet Union, Valerii Zaluzhnyi grew up during the Brezhnev era. He wanted to be a comedian, the profession Mr. Zelenskyy came from, but ended up joining the forces, following in the footsteps of his family members. He studied at the Institute of Land Forces of the Odesa Military Academy and the National Defence Academy in Kyiv. When the Russians took Crimea in 2014, Zaluzhnyi was a 41-year-old officer, who, like many other Ukrainian soldiers, felt humiliated and helpless by the loss of the Black Sea Peninsula. He was sent to the east to command units that were fighting the separatists and the “little green men”, who were believed to have been dispatched by the Russians.

When Mr. Zelenskyy became President in 2019, the situation in the east had become worse. Parts of the Donbas region were now two self-proclaimed Republics. The Minsk II agreement required Kyiv to introduce structural and constitutional reforms to guarantee autonomy to the eastern Oblasts in return for peace. The Russian threat was real and looming.

Instead of implementing the Minsk agreements, Mr. Zelenskyy chose to deepen Ukraine’s cooperation with the West and strengthen its armed forces. He wanted young blood for the latter. In 2021, he zeroed in on Gen. Zaluzhnyi. “He is a fair professional and a smart person,” Andrii Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said about the selection of Gen. Zaluzhnyi. “I said this to the President. The final call was made by him.” And Gen. Zaluzhnyi’s job was to keep his troops ready. “Our task as the Armed Forces is not to wait for manna from heaven. We must prepare for this. And we do everything for this,” he said.

He reorganised the armed forces, strengthening the autonomy of mid-level officers so that battlefield decisions can be made quickly instead of waiting for orders from headquarters like the Soviet days. He conducted military exercises to keep the forces combat-ready. He deepened defence cooperation with the U.S., the U.K. and other NATO countries. For someone who has “read everything [Valery] Gerasimov ever wrote”, the enemy is not a pushover. “I learnt the science of war from Gerasimov,” he once said, referring to the Chief of the General Staff of Russia. And now, he was preparing to fight Gen. Gerasimov.

The war

His tactics were initially effective. Russian forces were stopped in the early stage of the invasion. Later in 2022, the Ukrainians mobilised troops in the south, triggering speculations that they were planning a counter-attack in Kherson. Then, they launched the attack in Kharkiv, in the northeast, recapturing swathes of territory. Before the Russians recovered from this setback, Ukraine launched another attack in the south, forcing the enemy to retreat from Kherson city to the east bank of the Dnieper River. That is when Gen. Zaluzhnyi peaked. “Zaluzhnyi has emerged as the military mind his country needed,” General Mark Milley, the former Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff of the U.S., once said. “His leadership enabled the Ukrainian armed forces to adapt quickly with battlefield initiative against the Russians.” But the Russians also learnt from their battlefield experiences and adapted to the new realities.

By the time Ukraine launched the much-anticipated counteroffensive in June 2023, the Russians were in a stronger position. Mr. Putin had already mobilised some 3,00,000 troops and changed his commander. Russia’s military production had recovered from the early effects of the sanctions. They were ready to fight a long war, while Ukraine, which was almost entirely dependent on supplies from the West, wanted quick results.

The exit

The counteroffensive turned out to be counterproductive. Ukraine made no substantial territorial gains in months-long fighting, while they also suffered huge losses. In November 2023, Gen. Zaluzhnyi wrote an essay in The Economist, in which he said the war was entering “a new phase of static and attritional fighting, as in the First World War”, which “will benefit Russia”. He also asked Mr. Zelenskyy to mobilise 5,00,000 men for fighting. Reports started surfacing about the growing divide between the President and the Commander, which culminated in the latter’s sacking.

“We will fight until the last drop of blood,” Gen. Zaluzhnyi once said about the war. However, as the war is set to enter the third year, perhaps the most difficult phase for Ukraine with losses on the frontline, an enemy that is on the offensive and uncertainty about fresh aid from the U.S., the “Iron General” is no longer in the war.

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Russian missiles hit Ukrainian cities, killing 5 and injuring more than 100, Kyiv officials say

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Ukraine’s two largest cities came under attack Tuesday from Russian missiles that killed five people and injured more than 100, officials said, as the war approached its two-year mark and the Kremlin stepped up its winter bombardment of urban areas.

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry said Tuesday evening that the attack killed five civilians and injured 127 as air defenses downed Russian Kinzhal missiles that can fly at 10 times the speed of sound. The Kremlin’s forces targeted Kyiv, the capital, and the northeastern Kharkiv region whose provincial capital is also called Kharkiv, authorities said.

There was some confusion over the death toll as Kharkiv Gov. Oleh Syniehubov initially reported one death there but later said the injured woman thought to have been killed was in a coma. He said 52 people were wounded in Kharkhiv.

Air defenses shot down all 10 of the hypersonic missiles, out of about 100 of various types that were launched, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi claimed. It was the most Kinzhals used by Russia in one attack since the start of the war, air force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said.

The barrage extended Russian attacks that began Friday with its largest single assault on Ukraine since the war started, as fighting along the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line has subsided into grinding attrition amid winter. At least 41 civilians were killed since the weekend.

At a nine-story Kyiv apartment building where two people were killed, 48-year-old Inna Luhina was getting ready for work when a blast shattered her windows and she and other family members, including her 80-year-old mother, were struck by flying glass.

More than 100 survivors gathered at a school set up as a temporary shelter.

Iryna Dzyhil, a 55-year-old resident of the same building, said the explosion threw her and her husband from their chairs, and a subsequent fire trapped them on the top floor until emergency crews rescued them via the roof.

“They say they’re hitting military targets, but they’re hitting people, killing our children and our loved ones,” Dzyhil said of the Russians.

Russia fired almost 100 missiles of various types in the attacks, Zelenskyy said on X, formerly Twitter. He claimed at least 70 were shot down, almost all of them in the Kyiv area, noting that Western-supplied air defense systems such as Patriots and NASAMS had saved hundreds of lives.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said it had launched missile and drone strikes on military industrial facilities in and around Kyiv. Depots storing missiles and munitions supplied by the West also were targeted, it said.

“The goal of the strike has been achieved, all the targets have been hit,” it said without elaborating.

It was not possible to independently verify either side’s claims.

Zelenskyy said that since Sunday, Russian forces have launched about 170 Shahed drones and dozens of missiles, with most aimed at civilian areas.

The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal is an air-launched hypersonic ballistic missile. Russian forces rarely use such expensive missiles against Ukraine, due to their limited stocks.

The attacks created a desolate morning scene in Kyiv, with most cafes and restaurants remaining closed. Many people opted to stay indoors or seek refuge in shelters as powerful blasts shook the city from early morning. Air raid sirens blared for nearly four hours, and the city’s subway stations — which function as shelters — were crowded.

After the air force issued warnings about incoming missiles, people wearing pajamas underneath their coats took sleeping bags, mats and their pets to subway stations while loud explosions echoed above. At one of the central stations, called Golden Gates, hundreds of people filled the spacious underground areas while trains continued to run.

“Perhaps today was the most frightening because there were so many explosions,” said resident Myroslava Shcherba.

On Saturday, shelling of the Russian border city of Belgorod killed more than two dozen people. Russia blamed Ukraine for the attack and has struck back repeatedly since then.

The Belgorod attack was one of the deadliest on Russian soil since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine started more than 22 months ago. Russian officials said the death toll reached 26, including five children, after a new salvo of rockets Tuesday.

Air defense systems near Belgorod shot down four missiles fired Tuesday by a Ukrainian Vilkha multiple rocket launcher, the Russian Defense Ministry said. Over the previous 24 hours, Ukraine has carried out at least 50 attacks, including shelling and explosives from drones, regional Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov said.

Cities in western Russia have regularly come under drone attacks since May, although Ukrainian officials never acknowledge responsibility for strikes on Russian territory or the annexed Crimean Peninsula.

“They want to intimidate us and create uncertainty within our country. We will intensify strikes. Not a single crime against our civilian population will go unpunished,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday, describing the barrage of Belgorod as a “terrorist act.”

He accused Western nations of using Ukraine to try to “put Russia in its place.” While vowing retribution, he insisted Moscow would only target military infrastructure in Ukraine, but officials in Kyiv report civilian casualties from daily attacks on apartment buildings, shopping centers and residential areas.

In other developments, Russia’s Defense Ministry said one of its warplanes accidentally released munitions over the southwestern Russian village of Petropavlovka in the Voronezh region Tuesday, damaging six houses but causing no injuries. It said an investigation will determine the cause of the accident but didn’t say what type of weapon the warplane dropped.

In April, munitions accidentally released by a Russian warplane caused a powerful blast in Belgorod, damaging several cars and slightly injuring two people.

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A gloomy mood hangs over Ukraine’s soldiers as war with Russia grinds on

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A gloomy mood hangs over Ukraine’s soldiers nearly two years after Russia invaded their country.

Despite a disappointing counteroffensive this summer and signs of wavering financial support from allies, Ukrainian soldiers say they remain fiercely determined to win. But as winter approaches, they worry that Russia is better equipped for battle and are frustrated about being on the defensive again in a grueling war. Some doubt the judgment of their leaders.

Discontent among Ukrainian soldiers — once extremely rare and expressed only in private — is now more common and out in the open.

In the southern city of Kherson, where Ukraine is staging attacks against well-armed Russian troops on the other side of the Dnieper River, soldiers are asking why these difficult amphibious operations were not launched months ago in warmer weather.

“I don’t understand,” said a commander of the 11th National Guard Brigade’s anti-drone unit who is known on the battlefield as Boxer. “Now it’s harder and colder.”

“It’s not just my feeling, many units share it,” said Boxer, who spoke on condition that only his battlefield name would be used.

Russia, which illegally annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, controls about one-fifth of Ukraine. After 22 months of war the two countries are essentially in a stalemate along the 1,000 kilometre-longf front line.

Russian Forces aim to push deeper into eastern Ukraine this winter, analysts say, so that Russian President Vladimir Putin can cite this momentum as he campaigns for reelection, an outcome that is all but certain. Emboldened by recent gains on the battlefield, Putin said last week that he remains fully committed to the war and criticized Ukraine for “sacrificing” troops to demonstrate success to Western sponsors.

In the United States, which has already spent some $111 billion defending Ukraine, President Joe Biden is advocating for an additional $50 billion in aid. But Republican lawmakers are balking at more support — just as some lawmakers in Europe are on the fence about providing another $50 billion to Ukraine, after failing to deliver on promised ammunition.

“The reason the Ukrainians are gloomy is that, they now sense, not only have they not done well this year … they know that the Russians’ game is improving,” said Richard Barrons, a former British Army General. “They see what’s happening in Congress, and they see what happened in the EU.”

Ukraine may be on the defensive this winter, but its military leaders say they have no intention of letting up the fight.

“If we won’t have a single bullet, we will kill them with shovels,” said Serhii, a Commander in the 59th Brigade that is active in the eastern city of Avdiivka and who spoke on condition that only his first name be used. “Surely, everyone is tired of war, physically and mentally. But imagine if we stop — what happens next?”

The fatigue and frustration on the battlefield are mirrored in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, where disagreements among leaders have recently spilled out into the open.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last month publicly disputed the assessment by Ukraine’s Military Chief, Valery Zaluzhny, that the war had reached a stalemate. And the Mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has repeatedly lashed out at Mr. Zelenskyy, saying he holds too much power.

Disquiet in the halls of power appears to have filtered down to the Military’s rank and file, who increasingly have misgivings about inefficiency and faulty decision-making within the bureaucracy they depend on to keep them well-armed for the fight.

In the southern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhzhia, where momentum has slowed since the summertime counteroffensive, drones have become a crucial tool of war. They enable soldiers to keep an eye on — and hold back — Russian forces while they conduct dangerous and painstaking operations to clear minefields and consolidate territorial gains. But fighters there complain that the military has been too slow in training drone operators.

It took seven months to obtain the paperwork needed from multiple government agencies to train 75 men, said Konstantin Denisov, a Ukrainian soldier.

“We wasted time for nothing,” he said. Commanders elsewhere complain of not enough troops, or delays in getting drones repaired, disrupting combat missions.

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov insists Ukraine has enough soldiers and weaponry to power the next phase of the fight.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov rides in an APC during a visit to the front-line city of Kupiansk, Kharkiv region, Ukraine, on Nov. 30, 2023.
| Photo Credit:
AP

“We are capable and able to protect our people and we will be doing it,” he told the Associated Press. “We have a plan and we are sticking to that plan.”

The limited momentum Ukraine’s forces had during their summertime counteroffensive has slowed — from the forests in the northeast, to the urban centers in the east, to the slushy farmland in the South.

With Russia hoping to take the initiative this winter, Ukraine is mainly focused on standing its ground, according to interviews with a half dozen military commanders along the vast front line.

Despite wet, muddy ground that makes it harder to move tanks and other heavy weaponry around, the Russian army has bolstered its forces in the eastern Donetsk region, where it has recently stepped up offensive maneuvers.

“The main goal for the winter is to lose as few people as possible,” said Parker, the Ukrainian Commander of a Mechanized Battalion near Bakhmut who asked to go by his battlefield name to speak freely. Bakhmut is a city in eastern Ukraine that Russian forces took after months of heavy fighting.

“We have to be clear,” Mr. Parker said. “It’s not possible in the winter to liberate Donetsk or Bakhmut, because they have too many (fighters).”

Analysts say Ukraine may even be forced to cede patches of previously reclaimed territory this winter, though Russia is likely to pay a heavy price.

“If Russia keeps on attacking, the most likely outcome is that they’ll make some very marginal territorial gains, but suffer enormous casualties in doing so,” said Ben Barry, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

Some Ukrainian commanders across the front line say they lack the fighters and firepower needed to keep Russia’s seemingly endless waves of infantrymen at arm’s length as they fortify defenses to protect soldiers. That places ever more importance on attack drones — a weapon, they say, that Russia is currently better equipped with.

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian 10th Mountain Assault Brigade “Edelweiss”, Ukrainian soldiers pass by a volunteer bus burning after a Russian drone hit it near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023. A gloomy mood hangs over Ukraine’s soldiers nearly two years after Russia invaded their country. Ukrainian soldiers remain fiercely determined to win, despite a disappointing counteroffensive this summer and signs of wavering financial support from allies.

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian 10th Mountain Assault Brigade “Edelweiss”, Ukrainian soldiers pass by a volunteer bus burning after a Russian drone hit it near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023. A gloomy mood hangs over Ukraine’s soldiers nearly two years after Russia invaded their country. Ukrainian soldiers remain fiercely determined to win, despite a disappointing counteroffensive this summer and signs of wavering financial support from allies.
| Photo Credit:
AP

Indeed, while Ukrainian soldiers have proven to be resourceful and innovative on the battlefield, Moscow has dramatically scaled up its Defense Industry in the past year, manufacturing armored vehicles and artillery rounds at a pace Ukraine cannot match.

“Yes they’re ahead of us in terms of supply,” said Boxer, the Commander in Kherson, who credited Russian drones with having longer range and more advanced software. “It allows the drone to go up 2,000 meters, avoid jammers,” he said, whereas Ukrainian drones “can fly only 500 meters.”

This poses a problem for his troops, who have been limited in their ability to strike Russian targets on the other side of the Dnieper River. To eventually deploy heavy weaponry, such as tanks, Ukraine first needs to push Russian forces back to erect pontoon bridges. Until they get more drones, this won’t be possible, said Boxer.

“We wait for weapons we were supposed to receive months ago,” he said.

A woman stands with a tape on her mouth reading “Do not be silent” during a rally of relatives and friends of Ukrainian military prisoners of war, specifically captives from the defence of Mariupol dubbed “Azovstal defenders”, hold placards during a rally calling for their quick exchange with Russian prisoners of war, at Saint Sophia Square in Kyiv, on December 17, 2023, amid the Russian invasion in Ukraine.

A woman stands with a tape on her mouth reading “Do not be silent” during a rally of relatives and friends of Ukrainian military prisoners of war, specifically captives from the defence of Mariupol dubbed “Azovstal defenders”, hold placards during a rally calling for their quick exchange with Russian prisoners of war, at Saint Sophia Square in Kyiv, on December 17, 2023, amid the Russian invasion in Ukraine.
| Photo Credit:
AFP

To sustain the fight, Ukraine will also have to mobilize more men.

In the Northeastern cities of Kupiansk and Lyman, Russian forces have deployed a large force with the goal of recapturing lost territory.

“They are simply weakening our positions and strongholds, injuring our soldiers, thereby forcing them to leave the battlefield,” said Dolphin, a Commander in the northeast who would only be quoted using his battlefield name.

Mr. Dolphin says he has been unable to sufficiently re-staff. “I can say for my unit, we are prepared 60%,” he said.

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Yearender 2023 | 5 big tests for global diplomacy

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Let’s start with this week, and the end of the CoP 28, Climate Change summit held in Dubai, ended with a final document called the UAE consensus that agreed to a number of actions

The big takeaways: 

  1. Transition away from fossil fuel- oil, coal and gas in energy production, but no phase-out 
    Tripling of renewables by 2030 
  2. Methane: Accelerating and substantially reducing non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030 
  3. NetZero by 2050- this is meant to push India that has put 2070 as its netzero date, and China by 2060, to earlier dates 
  4. Loss and Damage fund adopted with about $750 million committed by Developed countries- most notably UAE, France, Germany, and Italy towards the fund set up during CoP28  

However, critics described the final document as “weak tea”, “watered down” and a “litany of loopholes”, and some criticised the UAE COP president directly for not ensuring stronger language against fossil fuels 

Where is the world ? 

1. Of the P-5- Leaders of US and China skipped the summit, Russian President Putin flew into Abu Dhabi with much fanfare, but didn’t go to CoP, and signed a number of energy deals. Leaders of UK and France attended CoP28

2. Small Island States and Climate vulnerable countries that bear the brunt of global warming were the most critical

Where is India? 

  1. India spoke essentially for the developing world, that does not want to commit to ending fossil fuel use that would slow its growth- and pushed for terms like phase-out and coal-powered plants to be cut out of the text.
  2. India has some pride in the fact that it has exceeded goals for its NDCs, and now is updating them- but is making it clear that it isn’t part of the global problem- contributing very little to emissions, and it won’t be pushed into being the solution 
  3. India is not prepared to bring forward targets for Net Zero or for ending coal use 
  4. PM Modi has now pitched to host CoP33 in 2028 

Let’s turn to the 2nd and 3rd big challenges to global diplomacy- and they came from conflict. 

2. Russian war in Ukraine:

The war in Ukraine is heading to its 2 year mark 

  • In a 4-hour long Press Conference this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin made it clear the war in Ukraine will not end until Russian goals are met- of demilitarization and “denazification” of Ukraine- certainly looking more confident about the way the war is moving 
  • The OHCHR estimates civilian casualties in Ukraine since February 2022, including in territory now controlled by Ukraine, and Russia is more than 40,000, with conflicting figures that total 500,000 military casualties- which are contested 
  • As aid begins to dwindle to its lowest point since February 2022 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been travelling to the US, trying to raise support for more funds and arms 

How is the world faring? 

  1. The UN Security Council is frozen over the issue, with Russia vetoing any resolutions against it. 
  2. On the One Year anniversary of the Russian invasion the UNGA passed a resolution calling on Russia to “leave Ukraine”- 141 countries in favour, 32 abstentions including India, and 7 against 
  3. In March 2023, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for President Putin, however, no country Mr. Putin has visited, including China, Central Asia, UAE, Saudi Arabia etc have enforced it 
  4. After a near breakdown in talks at the G20 in Delhi, India was able to forge a consensus document that brought the world together for a brief moment- the document didn’t criticize Russia but called for peace in Ukraine, something Kiev said it was disappointed by 

India: 

  1. India has continued to abstain at the UN, no criticism of Russia, and continued to buy increasing amounts of Russia oil that have increased a whopping 2,200% since the war began 
  2. India has also continued its weapons imports from Russia, although many shipments have been delayed due to Russian production and the payment mechanism problem 
  3. However, India has clearly reduced its engagement with Moscow- PM Modi will be skipping the annual India-Russia for the 2nd year now, and India dropped plans to host the SCO summit in person, making it virtual instead 

3. October 7 attacks and Israel Bombing of Gaza  

2023 is now known as the year of 2 conflicts- with many questioning whether the US can continue to funding its allies on both. 

-The current turn of the conflict began on October 7, as the Hamas group carried out a number of coordinated terror strikes in Israeli settlements along the border with Gaza- brutally killing 1,200, taking 240 hostages, with allegations of beheading and rape against the Hamas terrorists. 

– Israel’s retaliation, pounding Gaza residents for more than 2 months in an effort to finish Hamas and rescue the hostages has been devastating- with 29,000 munitions dropped, more than 18,000 killed, more than 7,000 of them children and as every kind of infrastructure in North and South is being flattened, more than 1.8 million people, 80% of the population is homeless 

Where is the world? 

– The UNSC is again paralysed, with the US vetoing every resolution against Israel 

– The UNGA has passed 2 resolutions with overwhelming support in October 120 countries, or 2/3rds present voted in favour of a ceasefire, in December 153 countries, 4/5ths of those present voted in favour, with severe criticism of Israel’s actions 

– Several countries have withdrawn their diplomats from Tel Aviv, but Arab states who have held several conferences have not so far cut off their ties with Israel 

– Netanyahu has rejected the UN calls, said the bombing wont stop until Hamas is eliminated 

– The global south has voted almost as a bloc, criticizing Israel for its disproportionate response and indiscriminate bombing 

Where is India? 

  1. When the October 7 attacks took place, India seemed to change its stance, issuing strong statements on terrorism, calling for a zero tolerance approach. In UNGA vote in September ,India abstained, a major shift from its past policy 
  2. However, as the death toll from Israel’s bombardment has risen, and the global mood has shifted, India moved closer to its original position, expressing concern for Palestinian victims and sending aid, and then this week, voting for the UNGA resolution, which marked the first time India has called for a ceasefire. 
  3. The shifts and hedging in position has left India without a leadership role in the conflict, away from both the global south and South Asia itself 

4. Afghanistan – Taliban and Women 

  • This is an area where the world has scored a big F for failure. 2 and a half years after the Taliban took over Kabul, there is little hope for loosening its grip on the country. 
  • The interim government of the Taliban, which includes many members on the UN terrorist lists remains in place, and no women with no talks about an inclusive or democratic, more representative government taking place 
    With the economy in shambles, sanctions in place and aid depleted, 15 million Afghans face acute food insecurity, and nearly 3 million people face severe malnourishment or starvation. An earthquake this year compounded problems Adding to the misery, 500,000 Afghan refugees have been sent back from Pakistan, and they lack food clothing or shelter. 
  • Girls are not allowed to go to school in most parts of the country, female students can’t pursue higher studies, and women are not allowed to hold most jobs, or use public places, parks, gyms etc 
  • While the UN doesn’t recognize the Taliban, nearly 20 countries, including India now run embassies in Kabul, and most countries treat the Taliban as the official regime 
  • No country today supports or gives more than lip service to the armed resistance or even democratic exiles in different parts of the world 

Where is India? 

  • India has reopened its mission in Kabul and as of last month, the Embassy of the old democratic regime in Delhi was forced to shut down due to lack of funds and staff- it has now been reopened by Afghan consuls in Mumbai and Hyderabad, who engage the Taliban regime, although they still bear the old democratic regime’s flag. 
  • India has sent food and material aid to Afghanistan- first through Pakistan, and then via Chabahar, and Indian officials regularly engage the Taliban leadership in Kabul 
  • Unlike its policy from 1996-01 towards the Taliban, India has not taken any Afghan refugees, rejected visas for students, businesspersons and even spouses of Indian citizens 
  • India does not support the armed resistance or any democratic exiles, and is not taking a leadership role on the crisis, yielding space to China and Russia instead 

5. Artificial Intelligence 

Finally to the global diplomacy challenge the world is just waking up to- AI 

  • For the past few decades, military powers have been developing AI to use in robotic warfare and more and more sophisticated drone technology as well as other areas
  •  Industry has also worked for long on different AI applications in machine intelligence from communication, r&d, to machine manufacture and 
  • However, the use of AI in information warfare has now become a cause for concerns about everything from job losses to cyber-attacks and the control that humans actually have over the systems and the world is looking for ways to find common ground on regulating it 
  • Last month the UK hosted the first Global AI summit- with PM Rishi Sunak bringing in US VP Harris, EU Chief Von Der Leyen and UNSG chief Guterres and others to look at ways –countries agreed on an AI panel resembling the Inter
  • Governmental Panel on Climate Change to chart the course for the world 
  • India hosted this year’s version of the Global Partnership on AI session in Delhi this month, comprising 28 countries and EU that look at “trustworthy development, deployment, and use of AI” – also at the Modi-Biden meeting in Washington this year, India and the US have embarked upon a whole new tech partnership 

Clearly the AI problem and its potential is a work in progress, and we hope to do a full show on geopolitical developments in AI when we return with WorldView next year. 

WV Take: What’s WV take on the year gone by? Simply put, this has been a year that has seen global consensus and global action weaker than ever before. As anti-globalisation forces turn countries more protectionist and anti-immigration, as less countries are willing to follow the international rule of law, humanitarian principles, the entire system of global governance has gone into decline. India’s path into such a future is three fold- to strengthen the global commons as much as possible, to seek global consensus on futuristic challenges and to understand the necessity for smaller, regional groupings for both security and prosperity alternatives. 

WV Yearender Reading recommendations: 

  1. India’s Moment: Changing Power Equations around The World by Mohan Kumar, former diplomat, now an academic and economic expert- this is an easy read that will make a lot of sense 
  2. Unequal: Why India Lags Behind its Neighbours- by Swati Narayan. This is a startling work of research, with a compelling argument on the need to pay more attention to Human Development Indices 
  3. India’s National Security Challenges: Edited by NN Vohra, with some superb essays on the need for a national security policy and defence reforms 
  4. The Age of AI: And Our Human Future by Henry Kissinger, Eric Schmidt, and Daniel Huttenlocher 
    Conflict: A Military History of the Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine by Andrew Roberts and Retd Gen David Petraeus 
  5.  The Power of Geography: Ten Maps that Reveal the Future of Our World by Tim Marshall and Future of Geography : How Power and Politics in Space will Change Our World

Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar

Production: Kanishkaa Balachandran & Gayatri Menon

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Is Russia winning the Ukraine war? | Explained

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Ukrainian soldiers drive a tank in a position near to the town of Bakhmut, Donetsk region, on December 13, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
| Photo Credit: AFP

The story so far: It has been six months since Ukraine launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive with advanced weapons and training provided by the West. The Eastern European country, having failed to make any major breakthrough in the battlefield, is now scrambling for more military assistance. President Volodymyr Zelensky was in Washington earlier this week and is now touring European capitals to ensure that the aid keeps flowing in. Russia, on the other side, is keeping its defensive lines that cut across southern and eastern Ukraine more or less intact, and is on the offensive in parts, especially in Avdiivka in Donetsk. With hard winter approaching, Kyiv is looking for a new strategy to alter what Ukrainian Generals call a “stalemate” and recapture the territories lost to Russia (roughly 20% of Ukraine).

What happened to the counteroffensive?

In June, Ukraine launched its counteroffensive at three points on the about 1,000-km long frontline — two axes in the south towards Melitopol and Berdyansk and the third in the east towards Bakhmut in Donetsk, which Ukrainian troops had lost in May. The main focus, however, was on the southern front where Ukrainian soldiers wanted to quickly cut through Russia’s formidable defence lines and link up with the Sea of Azov coast. This would have allowed Ukraine to cut off Russia’s land bridge between the mainland and the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. If the land bridge is gone, the only link between Crimea and the Russian mainland would be the Kerch Bridge across the Strait of Kerch, which was attacked twice by Ukrainians since the Russian invasion began in February 2022. In the east, the calculation was that Russia’s defence positions would be weak in Bakhmut where both sides suffered huge losses in the months-long battle.

Prior to the counteroffensive, Ukraine’s western allies had supplied them with advanced weaponry, including missile defence systems, armoured vehicles, medium and long range rockets, and main battle tanks, besides artillery shells and ammunition. The U.S. and other NATO members also trained nine Ukrainian brigades, roughly 36,000 soldiers, in the basics of manoeuvre warfare. In August, Ukrainian troops made small advances in the south. When they captured Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia, it was hailed as a breach of Russian defences. But Robotyne turned out to be a killing hamlet for Ukrainians. Some of the elite Ukrainian troops suffered heavy losses in Robotyne, while the West-supplied weapons, including Stryker armoured vehicles and German Leopard tanks, were burned by Russian fire. In the following weeks, Ukraine found it extremely difficult to break through Russia’s multi-layered defences, forget reaching the Sea of Azov. Ukrainian troops’ attempts to advance were stopped in the huge minefields, and even minesweepers came under fire from Russia’s attack helicopters. Russia’s electronic warfare capabilities blunted Ukrainian response, while lack of sufficient air power exposed Kyiv’s blitzkrieg strategy to counter attacks. Even after six months since the offensive’s launch, the frontline has hardly changed.

How is Russia placed?

Russia, which was forced to retreat from Kharkiv and Kherson last year, seems to have taken an upper hand in the war ever since. After the initial Russian thrust into Ukraine met with strong resistance and the West swung back to help Ukrainian troops, President Vladimir Putin of Russia announced a partial mobilisation to draft and train some 3,00,000 troops. As the battle of Bakhmut, led by Wagner, lasted for months with tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops tied to the hopeless defence of the eastern city, Russia’s regular soldiers were busy building strong defence lines along the frontline. Ukraine was supposed to start the counteroffensive earlier (it was called the ‘spring offensive’), but Ukrainian Generals reportedly resisted the U.S. push to launch the attack, saying they weren’t ready yet. By the time the attack started, the Russians were in a strong defensive position, their traditional forte. Compared to Ukraine, whose economy and military have been reliant on supplies and aid from the West, Russia has reinvigorated its military industrial base, ramping up defence production. (If Russia manufactured 100 tanks a year before the war, now it is making 200 tanks, according to American officials).

Russia has also amassed drones (from Iran) and shells and ammunition (from North Korea) so that it can continue the war of attrition without any supply glitches. Western sanctions aimed at weakening Russia’s economy and thereby its war machine have produced mixed results. The sanctions have clearly hit the Russian economy and damaged Russia’s energy ties with Europe with long-term consequences. However, the West’s move to put a price cap on Russian crude to limit Moscow’s oil revenues has failed as Russia continues to find big markets. Russia has also seized the crisis to diversify its energy trade with China and India, two huge markets that are dependent on energy imports, emerging as the top buyers of Russian crude. Turkey, a NATO member, and Central Asian republics emerged as conduits for Russia’s sanctions-proof trade with Asian markets. Therefore, Russia appears to be stable as of now, both in the battlefield and in the sphere of economy.

Is support for Ukraine waning in Western countries?

As Ukraine’s counteroffensive faltered, the support it enjoyed in the West, especially in the U.S. came under growing pressure. Last month there were reports in the American media that the U.S. and the EU are now encouraging Kyiv to start talks with the Russians. Last week, Republicans blocked an emergency spending Bill in the U.S. Congress that would provide $50 billion in security assistance to Ukraine, which was an indication that the pro-Ukraine alliance at Capitol is fraying. The White House has said in unmistakable terms that Ukraine could lose the war if U.S. aid dries up. Opinion polls in recent months have repeatedly shown that U.S. public support for Ukraine is declining. Half of Republican voters now believe that the U.S. is providing “too much aid” to Ukraine.

While Zelensky was visiting Washington, President Joe Biden said the U.S. would support Ukraine “as long as it can”, markedly different from his earlier rhetoric that the U.S. would support Ukraine “as long as it takes”. This puts Kyiv in a spot. The White House has signalled that it would make compromises with the Republicans on border policy (to crack down on immigrants) to pass the spending Bill. But even if this Bill passes, how long can Kyiv stay fully reliant on Western aid if it doesn’t make any major battlefield breakthrough? There is also a growing uncertainty in the U.S. as the country goes to presidential elections next year. Donald Trump, Mr. Biden’s main rival, has vowed to bring the Ukraine war to an end within days of assuming power. This should set alarm bells ringing in Kyiv if they have a long plan in their conflict with Russia.

What’s next?

In his annual press conference held on Thursday, President Putin said peace with Ukraine will take place “only when we achieve our objectives”. This means he is not in a hurry to hold talks. The Ukrainian side has also ruled out talks, for now.

As winter is likely to freeze the frontline, Ukraine might attempt a new strategy to break the gridlock next year, while a more confident Russia seems to be readying for localised counteroffensives aimed at capturing more territories of the four Oblasts Mr. Putin has already annexed (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson). While there is no end to fighting in sight, Ukraine’s prospects are tied to the flow of aid from the West.

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