Normalising al-Assad’s regime is dangerous and must be abandoned

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

To all serious policymakers, it is crystal clear that normalising the al-Assad regime is a misguided policy that neglects the fundamental principles of justice, accountability, and the rights of displaced Syrians, Refik Hodžić and Osama Seyhali write.

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A year ago, in February 2023, in the aftermath of the devastating earthquake that hit North West Syria and Southern Turkey, the world witnessed a geopolitical tremor that shook the ground beneath Syrian diplomacy: a sudden rush by regional powers and some Western states to normalise relations with Bashar al-Assad’s regime. 

This move, while seemingly pragmatic, did not resolve nor address any pressing issues or threats affecting the Syrian people or Western stakeholders in Syria. 

At the same time, it threatened to betray the hopes of millions of displaced Syrians who yearn for justice and a dignified return to their homeland.

For example, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) provided $100 million (€92.5m) in earthquake-related humanitarian assistance directly to the Syrian regime, and countries like Saudi Arabia and some European states provided earthquake relief via Damascus. 

Yet, the main affected areas were outside the control of the Syrian regime, and the international community had direct and faster access to those areas. 

This self-imposed and artificially created bureaucracy driven by political agendas contributed to the unnecessary death of thousands of Syrians trapped under the rubble and prolonged the suffering of hundreds of thousands more.

Friends will be friends

A series of diplomatic engagements between Syria and Russia, Turkey, Jordan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE indicated that a new approach to the Syrian regime may be materialising. 

Saudi Arabia reopened its embassy in Syria in May, while in the same month, the Arab League summit in Saudi Arabia invited Bashar al-Assad as a full member, after 12 years of isolation.

Although the regional normalisation attempts had a mixed reaction in the West, ranging from official silence to mild reservations, there has been expectation to see if such normalisation will yield any tangible effects that could serve the interests of some of the Western governments — serious prospects for the return of Syrian refugees and the prevention of new displacement waves towards Europe.

Amidst the lack of any clear political horizon or seriousness on behalf of the international community in the implementation of UNSC resolution 2245, and the lack of effective monitoring mechanisms to enforce sanctions on the Syrian regime, normalisation of the Syrian regime offered the illusion of peace and stability while ignoring the underlying issues of accountability, human rights abuses, and political disenfranchisement that have plagued Syria for decades.

Bashar al-Assad’s intransigence, the continued production and smuggling of huge quantities of synthetic drugs which are significantly affecting countries like Jordan, and have already reached Turkey and Europe, and the recent adoption of “Assad Anti-Normalisation Act” by the US House of Representatives, have put a spanner in the works of international champions of his regime’s normalisation. 

However, it is not entirely clear that they have completely abandoned this flawed stance.

Legitimising a regime of brutality and repression

This makes it even more important to remind everyone that any policy which seeks to normalise the murderous regime in Damascus disregards the fundamental rights and aspirations of the largest and most directly affected constituency: the displaced Syrians.

Displacement is more than just a physical journey across borders; it leaves deep emotional and psychological scars on individuals and communities. 

A recent survey conducted among displaced Syrians revealed the profound mistrust they continue to harbour towards the al-Assad regime. 

Their distrust is well-founded, given the regime’s history of brutality and repression. 

For displaced Syrians, returning home is not merely a matter of crossing a border; it entails rebuilding trust, ensuring safety, and guaranteeing basic human rights, all impossible under al-Assad’s rule.

Normalisation with the al-Assad regime would effectively legitimise a government that has committed widespread human rights abuses, including the use of chemical weapons, arbitrary detentions, and torture.

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It would send a disheartening message to the victims of these atrocities that their suffering is overlooked for political expediency. 

The Syrian Association for Citizens’ Dignity’s findings reveal a clear rejection of normalisation by displaced Syrians, with a significant majority ceasing efforts to return due to safety concerns and unresolved issues such as the fate of detainees. 

By sidelining these concerns, normalisation risks further entrenching a regime that has consistently shown disregard for basic human rights and international norms.

Moreover, normalisation without a credible pathway to political transition ignores the root causes of the Syrian conflict. It clearly diverts from the UN Security Council resolutions, like Resolution 2254, which outlines a roadmap for peace, including a ceasefire, humanitarian aid access, and a political settlement reflecting the Syrian people’s will. 

Such political adventurism on the part of the international community further erodes the faith among displaced Syrians in the current political process, driven by the belief that normalisation strengthens al-Assad’s position, further diminishing the prospects for a genuine political solution.

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What happened to accountability?

The policy of normalisation also undermines the principle of accountability. 

For any durable peace in Syria, accountability for war crimes and human rights abuses is indispensable. 

Displaced Syrians, as highlighted in the survey’s findings, prioritise the issue of tens of thousands of detainees still held in al-Assad’s prisons and the establishment of a safe environment for all Syrians.

By engaging with the al-Assad regime without addressing these issues, the international community fails to uphold justice, potentially fostering a climate of impunity that could have far-reaching consequences beyond Syria’s borders, as it fails to address the humanitarian and security dimensions of the Syrian crisis. 

The conflict has created one of the largest displacement crises globally, with millions of Syrians seeking refuge in neighbouring countries and beyond. The international community’s engagement with al-Assad without a clear commitment to resolving the displacement crisis risks exacerbating the vulnerabilities of refugees, subjecting them to further discrimination and instability.

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Consequently, the normalisation policy overlooks the strategic error of alienating the most numerous constituency of Syrians — more than 13 million displaced Syrians represent the majority of the country’s population, with deep ties to their homeland and a vested interest in its future. 

Their exclusion from the political process not only negates a wealth of potential contributions to Syria’s recovery and reconciliation but also disregards their right to self-determination. 

The work of organisations and movements representing displaced Syrians continuously emphasises the necessity of including them in any discussions on the country’s future, ensuring their experiences and aspirations shape the path forward. 

It is a grave illusion that this can be ignored without severe consequences for the region and European states.

There are no shortcuts to peace

Seeking shortcuts to peace that bypass the difficult but essential steps of ensuring justice, accountability, and reconciliation is a perilous path. 

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History has shown us that such shortcuts often lead to fragile and unsustainable peace that collapses under the weight of unaddressed grievances.

To all serious policymakers, it is crystal clear that normalising the al-Assad regime is a misguided policy that neglects the fundamental principles of justice, accountability, and the rights of displaced Syrians. 

It needs to be abandoned in all its shapes and guises. Instead, for a sustainable resolution to the Syrian conflict, the international community must prioritise a political process that includes the voices and concerns of displaced Syrians, aligns with international resolutions for peace, ensures a safe environment for all Syrians, and holds perpetrators of human rights abuses accountable. 

The insights we have witnessed so far serve as a crucial reminder of the stakes involved and the imperative to reevaluate current approaches for the sake of Syria’s future and the dignity of its people.

Refik Hodžić is a transitional justice expert and senior advisor at the European Institute for Peace, and Osama Seyhali is advocacy officer and member of the Board of Trustees of the Syrian Association for Citizens’ Dignity.

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What will happen to Turkey’s EU migrant deal if the opposition wins?

Turkey is counting down to elections on 14 May, with the economy the single most important issue for voters. 

But the migrant crisis is also seen as critical — not just for the public, but for the political parties vying for power. 

The last decade has witnessed a wave of arrivals with people fleeing the war in Syria. Many passed through Turkey and went on to Europe, but millions remained in the first point of safety. 

Some surveys show that as the number of foreigners has increased, so has anti-migrant sentiment. 

That has meant immigration issues are a hot election subject, which could have implications for the EU as well.

The opposition ‘National Alliance bloc is hoping to gain votes by pledging to send two million Syrians back to their homeland within two years. According to official figures, Turkey hosts 3,447,837 Syrian refugees registered under temporary protection as of March 2023.

Meanwhile, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, facing harsh criticism for his migration policy from his own supporters, has tried to keep one foot in each camp. 

Last year, he reiterated that his government was working on a return scheme to send one million Syrians back to their homeland on a voluntary basis. A few days later he also said “we will never expel them from this land. Our door is wide open. We’ll continue to host them and not throw them into the lap of murderers.”

Five months before the election, Erdogan announced more than half a million Syrians returned to northern Syria and he added “voluntary return of Syrians back to their homes is accelerating”. 

An alternative to the EU-Turkey deal

Migrants have become a bargaining tool between Ankara and the European Union too. 

In 2016, both parties reached a deal on the readmission of persons residing without authorisation, better known as the EU-Turkey Refugee Deal. It aimed to stop the influx of refugees and migrants into the EU by sending anyone trying to enter Greece irregularly back to Turkey. 

In return, the EU promised to fund €6 billion to help Turkey accommodate Syrians, as well as offer visa liberalisation for Turkish nationals. The deal meant that for every Syrian being returned to Turkey from Greece, another Syrian will be resettled in the EU.

For Professor Dr Kemal Kirişci, a nonresident senior fellow and director of the Turkey Project at the Brookings Institution, the deal was “utterly successful” for Brussels, though the possibility of a similar agreement is highly unlikely. 

Statistics from Turkish authorities show that about 37,000 Syrians have been relocated to Western countries under the one-for-one principle.

According to Kirişci, integrating them into reconstruction plans of the disaster zone following February’s devastating earthquake, is much more feasible and realistic than any other solution.

He points out there is already a United Nations plan on the table which focuses on “the EU and other Western partners extending trade concessions to Turkey, enabling private businesses to expand their exports and in return create formal and sustainable employment for both Syrian refugees and locals.” 

In his article about the proposal, Kirişci writes: “It would reduce Syrian refugees’ dependence on humanitarian assistance, help alleviate public resentment, and diminish the prospects of secondary movements”.

Speaking to Euronews, he added the EU would be much more receptive to this idea and there is great support for the proposal from concerned organisations.

“Until last year, Syrian refugees were increasingly feeling integrated into Turkish society, but the situation has changed due to the public resentment that surfaced during the course of the last year. With that resentment, you begin to see refugees doubting their presence and acceptance in Turkey. Their consideration to turn towards a third destination is increasing too”, Kirişci continues.

A 2021 report suggests that most Syrians, who five years ago wanted to stay in Turkey, now want to relocate to another country. 

In 2017 only around 32% of Syrians wanted to settle in a third country, by 2021 this number had risen to 64%. 

Kirişci also points out that migrants are unlikely to be a top priority for the new government after the elections because whoever will be in power, will face more pressing issues such as the economy.

‘Immigration [is] a key element in EU-Turkey relations’

Dr Sibel Karadag from Kadir Has University, an expert on migration and borders, says the policy of return is already in place internationally.

“Deportation and returns have been a hot topic for a long time. Western countries are deporting migrants to their neighbouring countries and the neighbours sending them to the countries of origin.”

“On the way to elections, Turkey increases the level of returns and deportations as we previously witnessed during the 2019 municipality elections. Since January 2022, another episode is at stake which is officially called as the policy of dilution and sweeping. 

“Under this policy, Syrians are sent back to the areas under Turkish control in northern Syria under the name of voluntary returns and other irregular migrants are deported through charter flights”, she explains. 

Karadag believes regardless of the election result, this practice will continue.

In its election campaign, the opposition bloc has outlined four step solution to the migrant crisis in Turkey. 

“First of all, we will make peace with all our neighbours” they say as their number one priority: “We will sit down with the Syrian government to discuss and find a peaceful solution”. 

On the other hand, the current government is yet to announce its election manifesto. However, Erdogan’s desire to negotiate with Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and his efforts on a scheme to relocate at least one million Syrian to northern Syria are seen as a part of his election campaign.

For both experts, shaking hands with the Syrian president is not a possibility on the horizon while Turkey maintains its military presence in northern Syria, at least not in the very near future.

According to Karadag, migration and border governance became key elements in EU-Turkey relations. 

“The EU has aimed to externalise this issue to Turkey as part of its wider global approach to control migration, and Turkey has used its ‘guardian’ role by turning it into multi bargaining tool”, she argues.

She adds: “At times, the government aimed to bargain with the threat of opening of borders which finally became materialised during the Pazarkule events in 2020. At other times it sought additional financial support or tacit political tolerance for the regime”.

In late 2019, Erdogan threatened to open European borders to let migrants leave the country unless more international support was provided, plus as a response to criticisms of Turkish military intervention in northern Syria. 

Following his announcement, thousands of migrants and refugees, mainly from Somalia and Afghanistan, flocked to Turkey’s Pazarkule border crossing with Greece. 

Clashes broke out as desperate groups faced fierce resistance from Greek police.

For Karadag, in the event of implementing the plans of mass returns, we may see similar scenes again, as she argues the Turkey-Greece border is much deadlier than in 2015 with proven pushbacks from Greek security forces.

“The European Union will continue to support any kind of extra-legal action to stop migrants reaching its doorstep,” she says.

“The first task should be to build a critical and strong diplomacy with rights-based principles against EU’s migration and border policies,” adds Karadag.

“The new government should carry out a policy that puts human dignity at the forefront.”

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