Tag: politics

Checkmate in Nagorno-Karabakh? How Azerbaijan got Armenia to back down

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The Armenian separatist forces in Nagorno-Karabakh on Wednesday agreed to lay down their weapons following Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive in the Armenian-majority enclave. Between Moscow’s weakening position in the Caucasus and the West’s dependence on hydrocarbons, Azerbaijan has taken advantage of a favourable international context to complete a decades-long mission to control the disputed region.

After more than 30 years of conflict, the battle between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh may soon conclude. Under the guise of an “anti-terrorist operation” following the death of four soldiers and two civilians, Baku continued its efforts to reassert control over Nagorno-Karabakh on Tuesday. 

Armenian separatists – who have mostly governed the disputed territory since 1994 – promptly agreed on Wednesday to surrender their weapons following Baku’s lightning offensive, indicating they are open to talks on reintegrating the secessionist territory into Azerbaijan.

“An agreement has been reached on the withdrawal of the remaining units and servicemen of the Armenian armed forces … and on the dissolution and complete disarmament of the armed formations of the Nagorno-Karabakh Defence Army,” the Armenian separatist authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh said in a statement.

This announcement is a decisive victory for Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliev who has made the reunification of his country a priority.

Separated from Armenia and attached to Azerbaijan in 1921 by Stalin, the predominantly Armenian mountainous enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh has been a point of permanent tension between the two former Soviet republics since the collapse of the USSR.

Azerbaijan launched a military operation against the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region on September 19. © FRANCE24

In 1991, the territory declared itself the independent Republic of Artsakh but was never recognised by the international community. Then, in 1994, Armenia won the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, resulting in the de facto independence of the Republic of Artsakh which Azerbaijan refused to accept.

In the intervening years, the tables have turned, says Jean Radvanyi, geographer and professor emeritus at the Institut national des langues et civilisations orientales (INALCO). Thanks to significant revenues from oil and natural gas, “Baku has taken advantage of the situation to rearm, with the support of allies such as Turkey, and the balance of power has continued to evolve”, says Radvanyi. 

This role reversal gave Azerbaijan the confidence to launch the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, which saw Baku’s forces overpower the Armenian military.

In the wake of this defeat, Armenia was forced to cede territory in and around Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. The ceasefire stipulated the presence of 2,000 Russian peacekeepers tasked with guaranteeing the safety of the Armenians but this measure failed to stop regular armed skirmishes on the border.

Taking advantage of a divided Armenia, Azerbaijan then launched the second phase of its plan: a war of attrition designed to cut off the enclave’s 120,000 or so Armenians. Despite the presence of the Russian peacekeepers, beginning in December 2022, Azerbaijan blockaded the Lachin corridor, a narrow mountain road that links Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh.

It wasn’t until September 18 – just one day before the offensive – that Red Cross trucks carrying food and medicine gained access to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Turkish support and Moscow’s declining influence in the Caucasus 

In both the first and second Nagorno-Karabakh wars, Azerbaijan received support from Turkey.

On Tuesday, a Turkish defence ministry official said the country is using  “all means”, including military training and modernisation, to support its close ally Azerbaijan but it did not play a direct role in Baku’s military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Baku’s success also appears to be the result of Moscow’s weakening regional position. Russia has struggled to maintain its traditional role as policeman of the Caucasus since it launched its offensive in Ukraine in February 2022.

“Since the fall of the USSR, Russia has been the guardian of the region, maintaining a kind of status quo, but Moscow is focused on the conflict in Ukraine, which seems far from over,” says Lukas Aubin, associate researcher at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS).

What’s more, Russia has become much more dependent on Azerbaijan. The country serves as a corridor between Iran and Russia, allowing for the transfer of military supplies for the war in Ukraine and is one of the countries that enables Russia to circumvent Western sanctions

Finally, Moscow’s support for Armenia has been steadily waning in recent years. Elected in 2018, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has edged away from Russia and turned to the West for security guarantees.

Read more‘We never deliberately attacked civilians’: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev interview

For instance, in November 2022, Pashinyan refused to sign the final declaration of the summit of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), of which Azerbaijan is also a member. This signalled Armenia’s growing resentment at Moscow’s lack of support for the country.

“Pashinyan is pursuing a pro-Western policy, which was not necessarily the case at the outset, and which irritates Moscow,” says Laurent Leylekian, a South Caucasus specialist and political analyst. “Armenia ratified the founding treaty of the International Criminal Court to protect the Armenian minority in Nagorno-Karabakh.” 

This process began at the end of 2022, but ended, coincidentally, a few days after the announcement of the ICC’s arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin – at a time when Putin wanted to sully the ICC’s credibility, Armenia was legitimising it.

Since then, Pashinyan has multiplied acts of defiance towards the Russian president. In early September, Armenia announced humanitarian aid to Ukraine and undertook a joint military exercise with the United States, which began on September 11. In response, Moscow responded by summoning the Armenian ambassador and denouncing the measures as “unfriendly”.

‘It’s death or exile that awaits the Armenians’ 

A Western response is yet to materialise. But here again, the international context is working in Azerbaijan’s favour.

In January, the European Union signed a far-reaching natural gas import agreement with Baku, to reduce dependence on Russian supplies. A few months later, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, travelled to Baku to announce a new agreement to double gas imports from Azerbaijan.

In an article published in Le Monde, some fifty French lawmakers criticised a project that would once again place Europeans “in a situation of new dependence on a state with bellicose aspirations”.

“The West has always been rather hypocritical in this matter, preferring to negotiate gas and oil with Baku rather than genuinely support the Armenians”, says Radvanyi.

As Azerbaijan now enters negotiations with Armenian separatists from a position of considerable strength, the power asymmetry could spell danger for both the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia itself. 

“The (ethnic) Armenian leaders of secessionist Karabakh have long refused to acknowledge that this territory belongs to Azerbaijan,” says Radvanyi, for whom the power shift on the ground could lead to a “solution” to the long-lasting standoff over Nagorno-Karabakh. 

“I hope this solution will ensure the status of the Karabakh Armenians,” he adds.  

But other experts envisage much gloomier scenarios. “It’s death or exile that awaits the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh because it’s impossible for an Armenian to live in a country where racist anti-Armenian hatred is the raison d’être,” says Leylekian.

Speaking before the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva on Wednesday, an Armenian ambassador warned of “looming ethnic cleansing” in Nagorno-Karabakh.

“Civilians in Nagorno-Karabakh are trapped and they do not have a way to evacuate since Azerbaijan continues to block the only lifeline connecting with Armenia,” he said.

Another concern relates to the integrity of Armenian territory, as Nagorno-Karabakh could lose its role as a buffer zone between the two enemies of the Caucasus.

“There’s every reason to be worried. If this buffer zone were to disappear, Azerbaijan’s ambitions could be even more pronounced,” says Aubin. “Without Russian support and frank and massive support from the West, it’s hard to see the Armenian army being in a position to resist.”

In contrast with this, Azerbaijan’s presidential foreign policy advisor Hikmet Hajiyev said Wednesday that the country aimed to “peacefully reintegrate” Armenians living in the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh and that it supports a “normalisation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan”.

This article has been translated from the original in French.

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UAW strike brings blue-collar vs. billionaire battle to Detroit

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DETROIT — The United Auto Workers strike is bringing a blue-collar versus billionaire battle to the Motor City, just as UAW President Shawn Fain wanted.

The outspoken union leader has weaponized striking — historically a last resort for the union — after less than 24 hours into a work stoppage arguably better than any UAW president has in modern times.

It wasn’t by accident.

Fain, a quirky yet emboldened leader, has meticulously brought the UAW back into the national spotlight after decades of near irrelevance. He wants to represent not just union members but also America’s embattled middle class, which UAW helped create.

United Auto Workers union President Shawn Fain joins UAW members who are on a strike, on the picket line at the Ford Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne, Michigan, September 15, 2023.

Rebecca Cook | Reuters

To do so, he has leveraged a yearslong national labor movement and a growing disgust for wealthy individuals and corporations among many Americans — starting with his first time addressing the union’s more than 400,000 members during his inauguration speech in March.

“We’re here to come together to ready ourselves for the war against our only one and only true enemy, multibillion-dollar corporations and employers who refuse to give our members their fair share,” Fain said at the time. “It’s a new day in the UAW.”

Fain’s comments Friday morning as he joined UAW members and supporters picketing outside a Ford plant in Michigan — one of three facilities the company is currently striking — echoed everything he said during that first speech.

“We got to do what we got to do to get our share of economic and social justice in this strike,” Fain said outside the Ford Bronco SUV and Ranger pickup plant. “We’re going to be out here until we get our share of economic justice. And it doesn’t matter how long it takes.”

Fain’s upbringing plays into his strong unionism and religious beliefs, which he has growingly talked about with members as he emphasizes “faith” in the UAW’s cause. Two of his grandparents were UAW GM retirees, and one grandfather started at Chrysler in 1937, the year the workers joined the union. Fain, who joined the UAW in 1994, even keeps one of his grandfather’s pay stubs in his wallet as “a reminder” of where he came from. 

National media and others really started paying attention to Fain when he said the union would withhold a reelection endorsement of President Joe Biden, who has called himself the “most pro-union president in history.” Fain and Biden have spoken and met, but the union leader has not shown much support for the president. In response to comments by the president Friday, Fain said: “Working people are not afraid. You know who’s afraid? The corporate media is afraid. The White House is afraid. The companies are afraid.”

While many past union leaders have talked such talk, Fain has thus far delivered on his promises to members without batting an eye — causing General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis to go into crisis mode this week as the UAW follows through on that promise to members.

“We’ve never seen anything like this; it’s frustrating,” Ford CEO Jim Farley told CNBC’s Phil LeBeau Thursday as he criticized Fain and the union for what he said was a lack of communication and counteroffers. “I don’t know what Shawn Fain is doing, but he’s not negotiating this contract with us, as it expires.”

In a statement Friday, Ford said that the UAW’s partial strike at its Michigan Assembly Plant has forced it to lay off about 600 workers.

“This is not a lockout,” Ford said. “This layoff is a consequence of the strike at Michigan Assembly Plant’s final assembly and paint departments, because the components built by these 600 employees use materials that must be e-coated for protection. E-coating is completed in the paint department, which is on strike.”

GM CEO Mary Barra echoed Farley’s feelings Friday morning on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“I’m extremely frustrated and disappointed,” she said. “We don’t need to be on strike right now.”

Both CEOs said everything they could to indicate they believe Fain may not be bargaining in good faith without using those exact words, which could justify a complaint with the National Labor Relations Board.

The UAW in late August filed unfair labor practice charges against GM and Stellantis with the NLRB, alleging they did not bargain with the union in good faith or a timely manner. It did not file a complaint against Ford. GM and Stellantis have denied those allegations.

Ford CEO Jim Farley: No way we would be sustainable as a company with UAW's wage proposal

Several past union leaders and company bargainers who spoke to CNBC hailed the way Fain has been able to propel the UAW into the national spotlight, including pausing bargaining for a Friday rally and march with Sen. Bernie Sanders, the progressive lawmaker from Vermont. Sanders, whose surprise 2016 Democratic presidential primary win in Michigan helped cement his national prominence, has lent support to numerous labor movements around the country as he rails against the billionaire class.

“I think they’re just doing an outstanding job,” said respected former UAW President Bob King, who cited growing support for the union among the public and the union’s own members. “Both those measurements say that UAW communications has been outstanding.”

UAW members have taken notice — especially after many of them disdained union leadership during and after a yearslong federal corruption investigation that landed two past UAW presidents and more than a dozen others in prison.

“For all the years that I’ve worked here, it’s never been this strong,” said Anthony Dobbins, a 27-year autoworker, early Friday morning while picketing the Ford plant in Michigan. “This is going to make history right here because we are trying to get what we deserve.”

Dobbins, a UAW Local 600 union representative, balked at current record offers by the automakers that have included roughly 20% pay increases, thousands of dollars in bonuses, retention of the union’s platinum health care and other sweetened benefits.

“That’s not working for us. Give us what we asked for,” Dobbins said. “That’s what we want. We have to work seven days, overtime, just to make ends meet.”

United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain, center, poses with Anthony Dobbins, right, a 27-year autoworker, and others as the union pickets a Ford plant in Wayne, Michigan, Sept. 15, 2023.

Michael Wayland / CNBC

Key demands from the union have included 40% hourly pay increases; a reduced, 32-hour, workweek; a shift back to traditional pensions; the elimination of compensation tiers; and a restoration of cost-of-living adjustments. Other items on the table include enhanced retiree benefits and better vacation and family leave benefits.

Automakers have argued such demands would cripple the companies. Farley even said the company would have “gone bankrupt by now” under the union’s current proposals and members would not have benefited from $75,000 in average profit-sharing over the last decade.

Ford sources said the automaker would have lost $14.4 billion over the last four years if the current demands had been in effect, instead of recording nearly $30 billion in profits.

Such profits are exactly what Fain has said UAW members deserve to share in. But his strategy to get workers a larger piece of the pie carries great risks.

“This is not going to be positive from an industry perspective or for GM,” Barra said Friday.

Many outside the union believe if Fain pushes too hard, it could lead to long-term job losses for the union. A former high-ranking bargainer for one of the automakers told CNBC that it’s nearly guaranteed the companies cut union jobs through product allocation, plant closures or other means to offset increased labor costs.

“They’re going to have to pay up. The question is how much,” said the longtime bargainer, who agreed to speak on the condition of anonymity. “This ends up with fewer jobs. That’s how the automakers cut costs.”

Fain and other union leaders have argued that meeting the companies in the middle has led to dozens of plant closures, fewer union members and a growing divide between blue-collar workers and the wealthy.

So why not fight?

“This is about us doing what we got to do to take care of the working class,” Fain said Friday. “This isn’t just about the UAW. This is about working people everywhere in this country. No matter what you do for a living, you deserve your fair share of equity.”

GM CEO Mary Barra on UAW strike: We put a historic offer on the table

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Is democracy at risk of extinction?

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This article was originally published in Italian

According to a survey by Open society foundations, more than a third of 18-35 year olds favour a military regime or an authoritarian leader. How did it come to this?

Do people still believe in democracy? This was the question asked by a recent Open Society Foundations poll, which for the second consecutive year surveyed more than 36,000 people in 30 countries around the world to hear their opinions and feelings about human rights, democracy, and other important issues facing countries around the world.

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The “Open Society Barometer: Is Democracy Effective?” survey, one of the largest global polls ever conducted, was conducted between May and July 2023 and the results, published in the run-up to International Democracy Day, are surprising, to say the least.

The concept of democracy is still widely popular in every region of the world: 86% of respondents say they would prefer to live in a democratic state and 62% believe that democracy is the best possible form of government. In Italy, the results were 91% and 69% respectively.

Only 20% of people said that authoritarian states are more capable of satisfying citizens’ demands and are more efficient in dealing with major issues at home and in the international arena.

What is surprising, however, is that although trust in democracy is still high across the board, the age group that is most sceptical about its effectiveness is the youngest one, those aged 18 to 35.

If we look at the data disaggregated by age group, the percentage of citizens who consider democracy to be the best possible form of government drops to 55% among the youngest, while it is 61.4% among the 35 to 55-year-olds and 69% among those older than 56. 

What is more, 42% of those aged 18-35 said that a military regime is a good way to govern a country, while 35% are in favour of a ‘strong’ leader who dispenses with elections and parliament. In Italy, the percentages drop to 24 and 32%, respectively. 

But how did we get here – and what does it mean for the survival of democracy?

“It is really worrying that the lowest support is in the youngest group, the 18 to 35-year-olds because today we have the largest generation of young people. Half of the world is under 30,” says Natalie Samarasinghe, Global director for advocacy at Open Society Foundations.

But, she says, context is important. “It is a combination of factors. We are facing a generation that has experienced a series of shocks: economic crises, COVID-19, climate change, and it is more than proven that authoritarian states have not handled these crises well, but neither have democracies. When you grow up in an era of instability and crisis, you have little trust in politicians. So I think this translates to scepticism about the system as a whole.”

In addition to the feeling that politicians have failed to deal with the major crises of recent years, there is also the impression ‘that they are worse off’ than their parents in terms of socio-economic conditions and, finally, the lack of representation: “How many young people feel that they have a say in democracy when the issues they fight for are never at the top of the agenda?”, asks Samarasinghe.

This disaffection for democracy thus stems from a general and continuous mismatch between what citizens demand and what is then actually delivered by the political class. On average, about one-third of the respondents do not trust politicians to work in their interests and address the issues they care about. Primarily poverty, inequality and human rights, climate change and corruption.

The responsibility of other generations

Gianfranco Pasquino, Professor Emeritus of Political Science, agrees with Samarasinghe not only on the socio-economic difficulties that have marked the last generations but also on the responsibility of the political class. “Parties have become inadequate structures. Parties teach democracy, practise it and show how to practise it. A great American political scientist wrote a book in the early 1940s saying that parties are born with democracy and democracy is born with parties. Consequently, democracy dies if parties die and instead thrives if parties recover. But I do not see this effort on the part of politicians,” Pasquino explains.

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However, the professor also attributes some of the responsibility for young people’s disaffection with the democratic system to the older generations, who are progressively more pro-democracy. Among the over 56 interviewed, the most authoritarian regimes are not particularly popular: only 20% are open to a military state, and 26% to a strong leader.

A considerable difference with younger people, but one that is easily explained according to Pasquino: “Quite simply, many of them have lived part of their lives under an authoritarian regime and know that they would never want to go back. Instead, they have had positive or at least better experiences with democracy than young people. But it would have been better if they had passed on this information, feelings and emotions to their children. Perhaps they did not do it enough.”

Is democracy at risk of extinction?

So what does this data tell us about the health and future of democracy? Is there really a risk that the democratic system will gradually fade away? Neither expert sees this as even remotely possible.

“Democracies continue to appear, and the established ones have never fallen. It is actually wrong to say that there is a crisis of democracy, there are problems in the functioning within some democracies, for example,Hungary, for example, Poland, but democracy is not in crisis,” says Professor Pasquino.

Samarasinghe goes even deeper: “The trend has always been and will be towards more freedom. And I think this survey also shows that there is this desire. Only that people now see a discrepancy between this desire and their lives. But I don’t think their solution is ‘OK, we will turn to an authoritarian system’. It may be a short-term solution, but not a long-term one. The values that people personally hold dear, including human rights, are so deeply rooted even in countries that currently have more authoritarian governments, that they cannot possibly fade away.”

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Rather, the concern is another: what can happen during this period of misalignment. “I think political leaders, national and international, need to keep in mind what the consequences of inaction are. It is not just a matter of saying: ‘OK, we don’t want to give up coal production now because we have this industry in the lobby and we might lose the next election.’ The whole system is at stake here.”

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‘We don’t need a public holiday, we need more funding’: Politicians urged to match Matildas’ fervour with funding

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Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has told the Australian public to “watch this space” when it comes to more funding for women’s sport in the wake of the Matildas’ World Cup successes.

With much of the country swept up in football fever, pressure has been mounting on politicians to match platitudes with investment in the sport.

“We don’t need a public holiday, we need more funding,” Fitzroy Lions soccer coach Hayley Truskewycz told ABC’s Oliver Gordon for AM.

“We in fact have a waiting list, and we can’t find enough coaches. And we don’t have enough grounds, so we’re restricted by our resources and our facilities.”

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton this week pledged $250 million for grassroots women’s sport if the coalition wins government.

He wants the states to match that figure, bringing it to $500 million.

“We’ve still got young girls who are going to soccer games getting changed in the car or in the car park, which is completely unacceptable,” he told Today.

But Prime Minister Anthony Albanese slammed the opposition’s credentials on funding women’s grassroots sports, pointing to the Morrison government’s sports rorts scandal.

“He sat in a cabinet that provided women’s sports programs to clubs that didn’t have women’s teams,” Mr Albanese told Sky News.

“Watch this space. We’ve been considering issues of sporting infrastructure and these issues for a long period of time.

“We’ll make an announcement at an appropriate time.”

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese attended the Matildas v Lionesses semifinal.

Matildas captain Sam Kerr highlighted the call for more funding after the team’s loss to England’s Lionesses.

“We need funding in our development. We need funding in our grassroots. We need funding. We need funding everywhere,” she said.

“The comparison to other sports isn’t really good enough. And hopefully, this tournament changes that because that’s the legacy you leave — not what you do on the pitch. The legacy is what you do off the pitch.”

Chloe Logarzo, who plays for Western United in the A-League and competed with the Matildas in the last World Cup, said investment was needed in stadiums and training facilities from governments and sponsors. 

“We need people to be able to come to the games and help support us, because we don’t just want to let what happened in this last month slip away, we want to be able to capitalise on it,” she told ABC News 24. 

“Imagine what it could be like if we had the right investment, and where the national team could go — maybe win a World Cup and have an Olympic gold medal.”

Women earning a quarter of men’s World Cup prize money

Disparities between the men’s and women’s game are stark.

The men’s World Cup prize pool was $US440 million ($686 million). The women’s World Cup prize pool is a quarter of that, at $US110 million.

Sam Kerr running with hand in a fist.

Sam Kerr has joined the call for more funding for women’s soccer.(AP: Tertius Pickard)

In the Australian A-League, women are contracted for 35 weeks a year, compared to 52 weeks for men, giving female athletes a smaller pay packet.

Central Coast Mariners goalkeeper Sarah Langman told 7.30 she was not paid for her first season playing with the A-League, and was paid just $1,200 in her second season. The minimum wage for players will be $25,000 for the upcoming season.

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Here’s How Much Mike Pence Is Worth

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Government pensions made the former vice president a millionaire in 2019, but he really cashed in after the 2020 election forced him back into the private sector.

It took Mike Pence nearly two decades of government service to become a millionaire on taxpayers’ dime through his state and federal pensions in 2019–and less than three years to quadruple his fortune as a public speaker, writer and consultant after leaving the vice presidency in January 2021. The 64-year-old darling of conservative evangelicals, who published his memoir “So Help Me God” last November, is wealthier (and more liquid) than he’s ever been, worth an estimated $4 million, according to Forbes’ estimates.

From the start of 2022 to June 2023, Pence generated $3.4 million by delivering 32 paid speeches, talking to a variety of groups, including an international peace organization, an oil and gas group and a smattering of universities. He collected another $1.4 million in advance payments for his book over the same period. His wife, Karen, received $75,000 in advance payments for her book, “When It’s Your Turn To Serve.” The Pences used some of their newfound cash to enjoy life outside of the White House, paying $1.9 million for a home in Indiana. But they saved plenty, too, buying stock in blue-chip names like Apple, Pfizer, Chevron and Lockheed Martin, before concentrating their portfolio in broad-based funds as a presidential run approached.

The son of a Korean War veteran who helped build Kiel Bros. Oil Co., an Indiana gas station and convenience store chain with more than 200 locations at its peak, Mike Pence graduated from Indiana University’s law school in 1986. He passed on a job at his family’s business, instead mounting unsuccessful campaigns for Congress in 1988 and 1990 and briefly working at a small law firm. Pence’s second congressional campaign erupted in scandal after he used political donations to cover a mortgage, credit card and grocery bills. “I’m not embarrassed that I need to make a living,” he told the press at the time. Such personal spending was legal then (though it has since been banned) but proved unpopular with voters.

Pence’s Portfolio

As vice president, Mike Pence’s fortune was almost entirely locked up in government pensions. Out of office, he has quadrupled his net worth to $4 million, scooped up a mansion in Indiana and expanded his exposure to the stock market.

Over the next decade, Pence reinvented himself as a local radio star, billed as “Rush Limbaugh on decaf,” making him a minor celebrity in the conservative Midwest and helping propel him into Congress on his third attempt in 2000. Still, the U.S. representative from Indiana remained one the Capitol’s poorer members, with few assets to his name besides stock in his family’s Kiel Bros.—worth somewhere between $200,000 and $450,000, according to a financial disclosure report he filed with the federal government in 2004. The company, which his brother Greg had taken over, filed for bankruptcy the next year.

Pence had a safety net. In 2006, he hit his fifth year of federal service, making him eligible for the especially generous retirement package afforded to members of Congress and their staffers. In 2012, Pence voted to scale back such retirement packages for future congressmen, but a grandfather clause written into the new legislation left his pension, and those of older lawmakers, untouched. “They’re almost twice as valuable as a regular federal pension,” Tim Voit, a financial analyst who runs a firm specializing in pensions told Forbes in 2019. “Congress passes laws for their own benefit, and they’ll never shortchange themselves.”

Between the 12 years Pence served in the House through 2012 and his four years as vice president beginning in 2017, he is currently eligible to collect an estimated $62,750 per year from the federal government for the rest of his life. If he were able to sell that annuity today, he could get about $620,000 for it, down only slightly from around $700,000 in 2019, with two years of additional service as vice president offset by the impact of interest rate hikes.

Then there’s Pence’s state pension, the result of his four years as governor of Indiana through 2016, which entitles him to 40% of his final salary of $112,000 for the rest of his life. That’s assuming Pence, who received a salary of $230,700 during each of his four years as vice president before really raking it in as a private citizen, waits to start drawing benefits until he turns 65 next year. The Indiana pension is worth an estimated $430,000 today–down only slightly from a half million or so in 2019. A spokesperson for Pence did not respond to requests for comment on this story.

Pence’s pensions are still worth a lot to the former vice president, accounting for nearly a quarter of his estimated $4 million fortune, or $1.1 million combined. But they’re not his only real assets anymore. The millions he earned writing, speaking and consulting after leaving the White House likely helped Pence pay off the five student loans he received to help put his three children through college, which had somewhere between $100,000 and $250,000 of principal remaining on them when he departed the White House, according to a financial disclosure he filed in January 2021.

Pence’s recent cash infusion will also make it easier to pay down the $1.5 million mortgage he took out to purchase a five-acre estate in his hometown of Columbus, Indiana shortly after leaving the vice president’s official residence at the U.S. Naval Observatory in January 2021. Forbes estimates that Pence’s new property, apparently the first he has owned since moving into the Indiana Governor’s Mansion in 2013, is now worth $1 million, after deducting the remaining balance on his 30-year mortgage.

Pence also owns shares in four mutual funds worth between $95,000 and $250,000 combined through his 401(k) plan at Hoosier Heartland LLC, the entity through which he conducts his speaking, writing and consulting. Hoosier Heartland has paid him $381,000 in salary since the beginning of 2022, according to his most recent financial disclosure. Two of his larger holdings today are a money market account and a Fidelity index fund that tracks the broader market, in which he has somewhere between $500,000 and $1 million apiece. To top things off, Pence has a life insurance policy valued somewhere between $15,000 and $50,000, and as much as $15,000 of cash in the bank.

The last two and a half years as a private citizen have been far more lucrative for Pence than his 20 years in public service. But he could make even more in the wake of a presidency, if he’s able to upset both his former boss, Donald Trump, and the man whose election he certified, Joe Biden.

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Polls close in Spain snap election that could see return of right wing to power

Post By World , , , , ,

The majority of polls closed Sunday in a general election that could make Spain the latest European Union member to swing to the political right.

Polls in Spain’s mainland and the Balearic Islands closed at 6:00 p.m. GMT. Polls on the Canary Islands remained open one more hour due to the archipelago falling in a different time zone. Once they close, the first results from Sunday’s election are expected to come out.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is trying to win a third consecutive national election since taking power in 2018. But his Socialists and the other party in his leftist coalition took a beating in regional and local elections in May.


 

The mainstream conservative Popular Party led most polling during the campaign and is hoping that its first national victory since 2016 could let candidate Alberto Núñez Feijóo unseat Sánchez. But it may need the help of the far-right Vox party to do so.

 

Such a coalition would return a far-right force to the Spanish government for the first time since the country transitioned to democracy in the late 1970s following the nearly 40-year rule of dictator Francisco Franco.

Voters braved soaring summer temperatures to cast ballots in the election for 350 members of the lower house of Parliament. Near-final results were expected at midnight.

Read moreSpanish PM Sanchez pins snap election hopes on ‘fear of far right’

A PP-Vox government would mean another EU member has moved firmly to the right, a trend seen recently in Sweden, Finland and Italy. Countries such as Germany and France are concerned by what such a shift would portend for EU immigration and climate policies.

Spain’s two main leftist parties are pro-EU participation. On the right, the PP, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, is also in favor of the EU. Vox, headed by Santiago Abascal, is opposed to EU interference in Spain’s affairs.

The election comes as Spain holds the EU’s rotating presidency. Sánchez had hoped to use the six-month term to showcase the advances his government had made. An election defeat for Sánchez could see the PP taking over the EU presidency reins.

Sánchez was one of the first to vote, casting his ballot in a polling station in Madrid.

Commenting later on the large number of foreign media covering the election, he said: “This means that what happens today is going to be very important not just for us but also for Europe and I think that should also make us reflect.”

“I don’t want to say I’m optimistic or not. I have good vibrations,” Sánchez added.

The Socialists and a new movement called Sumar that brings together 15 small leftist parties for the first time hope to pull off an upset victory. Sumar is led by second Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz, the only woman among the top four candidates.

Díaz called for everyone to vote, recalling that the freedom to vote didn’t always exist in Spain.

“A lot is at risk,” said Diáz after voting. “For people of my generation, they are the most important elections.”

At stake is “waking up tomorrow with more rights, more democracy and more freedom.”

The Interior Ministry said voter turnout at 6:00 p.m. local time stood at 53%, compared to 56% at the same point in the the country’s last national election, in November 2019.

The election was taking place at the height of summer, with millions of voters likely to be vacationing away from their regular polling places. However, postal voting requests soared before Sunday.

With no party expected to garner an absolute majority, the choice is basically between another leftist coalition and a partnership of the right and the far right.

For poll favorite Feijóo, “It is clear that many things are in play, what model of country we want, to have a solid and strong government.”

Vox’s Abascal said he hoped for “a massive mobilization (of voters) that will allow Spain to change direction.”

Alejandro Bleda, 45, did not say who he voted for but indicated that he was backing the leftist parties. “Given the polarization in this country, it’s to vote either for 50 years of backwardness or for progress,” he said.

The main issues at stake

are “a lot of freedoms, social rights, public health and education,” Bleda said after voting in the Palacio de Valdés public school polling station in central Madrid with his wife and young boy.

Voters are to elect 350 members to the lower house of Parliament and 208 members to the Senate.

Carmen Acero, 62, who voted for the Popular Party, compared Sánchez to Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and said she voted because “to continue with Pedro Sánchez is hell.”

Acero, who sported a Spanish flag on her phone, accused Sánchez of being an “assassin” for allying with the small Basque regional party Bildu, which includes some former members of the now-defunct armed separatist group, ETA.

She identified “the unity of Spain, employment and security” as among her main concerns.

The government said that all polling stations were running as normal.

A fire in a tunnel forced the suspension of all trains entering and leaving the eastern city of Valencia, indicating many people there might not make it to their voting station.

Coming on the tail of a month of heat waves, temperatures are expected to average above 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) and to rise between 5 and 10 degrees Celsius above normal in many parts of the country Sunday. Authorities distributed fans to many of the stations.

“We have the heat, but the right to exercise our vote freely is stronger than the heat,” said Rosa Maria Valladolid-Prieto, 79, in Barcelona.

Sánchez’s government has steered Spain through the COVID-19 pandemic and dealt with an inflation-driven economic downturn made worse by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But his dependency on fringe parties to keep his minority coalition afloat, including separatist forces from Catalonia and the Basque Country, and his passing of a slew of liberal-minded laws may cost him his job.

The right-wing parties dislike everything about Sánchez, saying he has betrayed and ruined Spain. They vow to roll back dozens of his laws, many of which have benefited millions of citizens and thousands of companies.

(AP)

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#Polls #close #Spain #snap #election #return #wing #power

FDA approves Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi, paving way for broader Medicare coverage

Post By Business , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Food and Drug Administration on Thursday fully approved the Alzheimer’s treatment Leqembi, a pivotal decision that will expand access to the expensive drug for older Americans.

Medicare announced shortly after the FDA approval that it is now covering the antibody treatment for patients enrolled in the insurance program for seniors, though several conditions apply.

Leqembi is the first Alzheimer’s antibody treatment to receive full FDA approval. It is also the first such drug to receive broad coverage through Medicare.

Leqembi is not a cure. The treatment slowed cognitive decline from early Alzheimer’s disease by 27% over 18 months during Eisai’s clinical trial. The antibody, administered twice monthly through intravenous infusion, targets a protein called amyloid that is associated with Alzheimer’s disease.

Medicare coverage is a crucial step to help older Americans with early Alzheimer’s disease pay for the treatment. With a median income of about $30,000, most people on Medicare cannot afford the $26,500 annual price of Leqembi set by Eisai without insurance coverage.

Medicare had previously only agreed to cover Leqembi for patients participating in clinical trials after the treatment received expedited approval in January. This policy had severely restricted access to the drug.

To be eligible for coverage, patients must be enrolled in Medicare, diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment or mild Alzheimer’s disease, and have a doctor who is participating in a data-collection system the federal government has established to monitor the treatment’s benefits and risks.

Joanna Pike, president of the Alzheimer’s Association, the lobby group that advocates on behalf of people living with the disease, said although Leqembi is not a cure, it will help patients in the early stages of the disease maintain their independence, conduct their daily lives, and spend more time with their families.

“This gives people more months of recognizing their spouse, children and grandchildren,” Pike said in a statement Thursday. “This also means more time for a person to drive safely, accurately and promptly take care of family finances, and participate fully in hobbies and interests.”

But the treatment carries serious risks of brain swelling and bleeding. Three patients who participated in Eisai’s study died. FDA scientists have said it is unclear if Leqembi played a role in these deaths.

Alzheimer’s disease is the most common cause of dementia among older adults and the sixth leading cause of death in the U.S., according to the FDA.

Dr. David Knopman, a neurologist who specializes in Alzheimer’s disease at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota, said Leqembi clearly demonstrated a benefit to patients in Eisai’s trial, though he cautioned the efficacy of the treatment was modest.

Knopman said appropriately diagnosed and informed patients should be able to decide for themselves whether they want to take Leqembi after weighing the benefits and risks of the treatment as well as the potential logistical challenges of finding a place to receive the twice-monthly infusions.

Medicare coverage

To receive coverage, Medicare is requiring patients to find a health-care provider participating in a registry system that collects real-world data on the drug’s benefits and risks. The system is controversial. The Alzheimer’s Association and some members of Congress are worried this requirement will create barriers to treatment.

There are concerns that the number of health-care providers participating in such registries will be limited, and that people in rural towns and other underserved communities will have to travel long hours to find such a provider.

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has set up a nationwide portal to make it easy for health-care providers to submit the required data on patients receiving Leqembi. The free-to-use portal went live moments after the FDA decision on Thursday.

CNBC Health & Science

Read CNBC’s latest health coverage:

Rep. Anna Eshoo of California, the ranking Democrat on the House Subcommittee on Health, and Rep. Nanette Barragan, D-Calif., raised concerns in a letter to CMS last month that patients could struggle to find a doctor participating in the system.

Alzheimer’s is typically diagnosed with the help of a PET scan to detect the amyloid protein associated with the disease or in some cases with a spinal tap. Medicare currently only covers one PET scan per lifetime for dementia. It is unclear if the program plans to change that policy.

There’s also concern that there could be too few specialist physicians and locations to administer the infusions if Leqembi is broadly embraced as a treatment and patient demand for the antibody is high.

Some studies have estimated that wait times for antibody treatments like Leqembi could range from months to even years over the next decade depending on demand.

Tomas Philipson, who advised the FDA commissioner and CMS administrator during the second Bush administration, said the registry is an unnecessary hurdle and Medicare should drop it, but he doesn’t believe the requirement will create an insurmountable barrier to patients accessing Leqembi.

If demand for Leqembi is high, doctors will have an incentive to participate in the registry and the drug companies will want to help, said Philipson, an expert on health-care economics at the University of Chicago.

How high demand will be for Leqembi is uncertain, he said. Families worried about the serious side effects may opt not to take the treatment, while others will decide the benefits outweigh those risks, he said.

High cost

Leqembi’s price tag and the treatment’s benefit-risk profile are controversial.

Medicare patients treated with Leqembi will pay 20% of the medical bill after they meet their Part B deductible, according to CMS. Costs may vary depending on whether the patient has supplemental Medicare coverage or other secondary insurance, according to the agency.

Patients could face up to $6,600 in annual out-of-pocket costs for Leqembi even with Medicare coverage, according to a study published in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine. The treatment could cost Medicare up to $5 billion a year depending on how many people receive the infusions, the study estimated.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., chair of the Senate Health Committee, has called Leqembi’s price “unconscionable” and in a letter last month asked Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra to take action to reduce the cost.

Sanders said patient out-of-pocket costs for Leqembi would amount to a sixth of many seniors’ total annual income and noted the high cost of the treatment could increase premiums for everyone on Medicare.

Eisai says its $26,500 annual list price for Leqembi is lower than the company’s estimate of $37,600 for the total value of the treatment for each patient. The Institute for Clinical and Economic Review, a nonprofit that analyzes health-care costs, estimated in April it should be priced at $8,900 to $21,500 per year.

Though Leqembi could prove costly to Medicare, Philipson said delaying coverage of the treatment would result in significant increased health-care spending as people with mild Alzheimer’s disease, which can be managed at home, progress to more serious disease that requires expensive nursing home care.

Philipson and his colleagues at the University of Chicago estimated that delaying Medicare coverage of Alzheimer’s antibody treatments by one year would result in $6.8 billion in increased spending. By 2040, health-care spending would rise by $248 billion.

Clinical benefit

Thursday’s full FDA approval comes after a panel of six outside advisors voted unanimously in June in support of the drug’s clinical benefit to patients. The panel was unusually small because some members recused themselves due to conflicts of interest.

The American Academy of Neurology stated in a February letter to CMS that there is a consensus among its experts that Eisai’s clinical trial of Leqembi was well designed and the results were “clinically and statistically significant.”

Some nonprofit groups such as Public Citizen, a consumer advocacy organization, strongly opposed FDA approval of Leqembi. A representative from Public Citizen told the advisory panel that the evidence for the drug’s benefit does not outweigh significant risks of brain swelling and bleeding.

And representatives from the National Center for Health Research and Doctors for America, also nonprofits, told the panel that Eisai’s clinical trial did not include enough Black patients, who are at higher risk for Alzheimer’s disease.

Leqembi has technically been approved for the U.S. market since January, when the FDA cleared the treatment under an accelerated pathway. The FDA uses expedited approvals to save time and get drugs to patients suffering from serious diseases more quickly.

But Medicare refused to cover the Leqembi at that time, asking for more evidence that the expensive treatment had a real clinical benefit for patients that outweighed the risks.

The program’s cautious coverage policy stems from the FDA’s controversial 2021 approval of another Alzheimer’s antibody treatment called Aduhelm, also made by Eisai and Biogen.

The FDA’s advisory committee declined to endorse Aduhelm because the data did not support a clinical benefit to patients. Three advisors resigned after the agency’s decision to approve the treatment anyway.

Knopman is one of the advisors who resigned over the FDA’s decision on Aduhelm. He said the data for Leqembi is different. Eisai conducted a clean trial that showed the antibody had a modest clinical benefit for patients, Knopman said.

An investigation by Congress subsequently found that the FDA’s approval of Aduhelm was “rife with irregularities.”

Sanders, in his letter to Becerra, said the FDA “has a special responsibility to restore the public trust after its inappropriate relationship with Biogen during the agency’s review of a prior Alzheimer’s drug, Aduhelm.”

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#FDA #approves #Alzheimers #drug #Leqembi #paving #broader #Medicare #coverage

These stocks could be the next Magnificent Seven market leaders, says Goldman Sachs.

Post By Stock , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The second half of the year kicks off with a holiday-shortened week, though jobs data comes at the end of it. That’s as Tesla may have lit a firecracker for tech with some pretty bullish sales numbers out Sunday.

“Can tech keep up the pace?” is a burning question for many with regards to a sector that helped drive the S&P 500
SPX,
+1.23%
to its best first half since 2019. On the plus side, history dictates that one good half can lead to another, though some worry too much investor exuberance could spoil things.

So naturally, another obvious question looking ahead is how to find outperformers like the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech names that led the first half — Amazon
AMZN,
+1.92%,
Microsoft
MSFT,
+1.64%,
Alphabet
GOOGL,
+0.50%,
Meta
META,
+1.94%,
Tesla
TSLA,
+1.66%
and Nvidia
NVDA,
+3.63%.

Our call of the day, from a team at Goldman Sachs led by chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin, offers up some ideas on that front and spoiler, Tesla is among them.

To find the new names, Goldman spiffed up its “Rule of 10” stock screen that pinpoints companies with realized and future sales growth greater than 10% for 2021 to 2025. They note that strong sales growth has been a common thread running through each of those names, as each have grown sales at a faster rate than the broader index since 2010, except 2022.

“The largest tech stocks in the U.S. equity market make it clear that identifying firms capable of posting sustained 10%+ sales growth in their nascent stages can be rewarding for investors. Rapid and consistent sales growth was a common attribute of today’s largest stocks as they ascended the index ranks,” said Kostin and the team.

Roughly 20 names meet this criteria and among them is one of those big tech outperformers — Tesla. Salesforce
CRM,
+0.39%
has consistently made the cut, said Goldman. The top 10 names on this list are Enphase Energy
ENPH,
+5.49%,
Tesla, SolarEdge
SEDG,
+5.94%,
Palo Alto Networks
PANW,
+0.86%,
ServiceNow
NOW,
+2.53%,
Paycom Software
PAYC,
+2.41%,
Fortinet
FTNT,
+0.67%,
DexCom
DXCM,
+0.45%
and Insulet
PODD,
-0.91%.

Goldman also presented a screener for stocks based on net income growth. Those must have more than 10% per year net income growth for the 2021 to 2025 period.

Currently 18 names fit this criteria and are trading at below average premiums to the S&P on a price/earnings and price to earnings growth ratio, they say. The top 10 are Baker Hughes
BKR,
+0.80%,
Match Group
MTCH,
-0.07%,
Insulet , Aptiv, Bookings Holdings
BKNG,
+1.67%,
ServiceNow, Schlumberger
SLB,
+1.34%,
Chipotle
CMG,
+1.35%,
Paycom and Halliburton
HAL,
-0.60%.

And eight companies are on both lists: Paycom, Fortinet, Insulet, Salesforce, Intuit, Cadence Design Systems
CDNS,
+2.62%
and Aptiv.

As an aside, Kostin and the team address the whole narrow market issue, saying that in any given year, returns have been concentrated on a group of outperformers. Observe the below chart:

“Excluding the top 10 contributors in each year, the S&P 500 would have delivered an 8% average annual return since 1990 (vs. 12% for the full index),” they said. The top 10 contributors account for roughly 12 percentage points of the S&P 500’s 15% year-to-date return.

The market

It will be a shortened session for Wall Street ahead of Tuesday’s 4th of July holiday. Ahead of that, equity futures
ES00,
-0.06%

YM00,
-0.18%
are mostly lower, except for tech
NQ00,
+0.02%,
thanks to Tesla, while bond yields
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.856%
were mildly mixed. Oil prices
CL.1,
+1.12%
got a lift after Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would extend oil production cuts into August. Asia had a strong session, led by a 1.7% gain for the Hang Seng
HSI,
+2.06%.

For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Business Daily.

The buzz

Tesla
TSLA,
+1.66%
delivered 466,140 vehicles in the second quarter, surpassing estimates as the EV maker boosted dividends and incentives. That should “beat the bears back into hibernation,” says Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. Indeed, the stock is up over 6% in premarket trading.

Upbeat delivery data has also lifted shares of XPeng
XPEV,
+13.44%
and Nio
NIO,
+3.19%,
by 10% and 6%, respectively.

Shares of Fidelity National Information Services
FIS,
+3.36%
also surged 6% after a report late last week cited private-equity interest in buying a possible majority stake in the company’s Worldpay business. 

Apple
AAPL,
+2.31%
has reportedly slashed its production targets for its pricey Vision Pro headset, as components makers are struggling with its complicated design. The report comes as Apple closed above a $3 trillion valuation on Friday.

A holiday shortened week will finish with the June jobs report on Friday. The week begins with the S&P U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index at 9:45 a.m., followed by the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index at 10 a.m. and construction spending on Monday. Other highlights include minutes of the Fed’s June meeting on Wednesday and the ISM services index on Thursday.

A private gauge for China’s factory activity showed slightly lower activity in June.

It was a lukewarm weekending opening for Walt Disney
DIS,
+0.37%
and Lucasfilm’s “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.”

The grandmother of a slain French teen has pleaded for calm after a fifth night of riots in France. The government says social media has fueled the unrest.

Best of the web

These are your options if you can’t pay back your student loans when payments start up again.

Leveraged-loan logjam eases after banks unload tens of billions of debt.

Carmakers are getting into the mining business.

The chart

Here’s a chart from head of @topdowncharts, Callum Thomas, looking at some residential property values that are starting to roll over a bit:


@callum_thomas

Top tickers

These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:

Ticker

 Security name
TSLA,
+1.66% 		Tesla
NIO,
+3.19% 		Nio
AAPL,
+2.31% 		Apple
NVDA,
+3.63% 		Nvidia
GME,
-2.61% 		GameStop
MULN,
-7.16% 		Mullen Automotive
AMC,
-0.45% 		AMC Entertainment
AMZN,
+1.92% 		Amazon.com
PLTR,
+0.86% 		Palantir Technologies
TOP,
+20.38% 		TOP Financial Group

Random reads

It’s no joke. Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg may really get in a cage and fight.

Fed up with the U.K., the Orkey Islands want to be part of Norway.

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#stocks #Magnificent #market #leaders #Goldman #Sachs

Here’s what Wall Street’s most bullish analyst heading into the year thinks of the stock market now

Post By Stock , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

It’s back to business on Monday, but there’s a bit of nervousness after the near coup/rebellion/cage fight in one of the world’s biggest nuclear powers over the weekend.

Questions remain over a possible power struggle in Russia, as it continues to wage war on Ukraine. But barring bigger developments, investors are returning their focus on whether aggressive central banks will spark a recession and market fallout.

Read: What’s next for markets after aborted Wagner mutiny leaves Russia’s Putin weakened

Wall Street has been growing more bullish after entering 2023 in a fearful state, following the S&P 500’s
SPX,
-0.77%
worst year since 2008. One analyst who led bullish views headed into 2023 was Deutsche Bank’s chief U.S. equity and global strategist, Binky Chadha, who sees a 4,500 finish, and others have been playing catch up to him.

In our call of the day, Chadha spoke to MarketWatch about why he’s not budging from that bullish call and what, if anything, could derail his optimistic view.

He said the year has been playing out as the bank had forecasted — strong rallies led by a squeeze on markets due to underweight positioning, with tech in the driver’s seat — the Nasdaq
COMP,
-1.01%
is up 16% so far this year. The path higher will be more of a grind as some of that positioning has caught up, he says.

Investors underweight in equities from late last year have largely caught up with their exposure, while others stay wary, says Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha.


Deutsche Bank

Read: Why the ‘easy money’ has been made in the stock-market rally — and what comes next

Chadha said he’d rethink his more bullish outlook on “signs of corporate risk aversion. Companies pulling back and going back into the bunker.” That is corporates becoming risk averse, cutting working capital, hoarding cash, and paring capital expenditure, he said. For now, he doesn’t see that.

The strategist also weighed in on narrow market leadership, where S&P 500 gains are led by just a handful of names. “Keep in mind that the selloff of last year was also narrow,” he said, when energy stocks soared on higher prices.

But this year the reversal has seen techs rally and now he sees indeed the gains spreading to more names. He said the bank recently removed its overweight on mega-tech stocks because earnings are rebounding, but markets have priced in a lot more than they expect.

As for where to put money now? “I wouldn’t be long financials here. The events of March have painted financials with a very broad brush. Most of the large -cap financials are really beneficiaries of what happened in March, but the market has put a risk premium on them,” said Chadha

As for cyclical consumer stocks, the risk/reward is asymmetrical because so much is priced in for the downside. “Everybody in the market has been waiting so long for the recession and some things are priced for even more than an average recession,” he said.

“And so I think you want to be long the cyclical parts of the consumer, and I think you want to be underweight defensives, because rates stay here and that’s where everybody has been hiding,” he said.

And what would make Chadha lift that 4,500 S&P 500 target? “Better prospects for the economy, better prospects for gorwth. In the event of a soft landing, and to be clear that is not our house view, but that would not be a terrible thing.” And that would eventually lead to upside for markets, he said.

The markets

Stock futures
ES00,

YM00,
+0.01%
are marginally lower, with Treasury yields
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.691%
and oil prices
CL.1,
+0.48%
dipping, and silver
SI00,
+1.97%
making some strides. Lots of weakness across Asia, led by the Shanghai Composite
SHCOMP,
-1.48%,
while Europe stocks
SXXP,
-0.07%
are lower after a newsy Russia weekend, and natural gas futures
NG00,
+1.17%
are higher both in the U.S. and Europe. The ruble
USDRUB,
+0.91%
is down 1.7% against the dollar
DXY,
-0.27%,
which is a little softer overall.

For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Business Daily.

The buzz

Goldman Sachs became the third Wall Street bank in a week to downgrade Tesla shares
TSLA,
-3.03%
to neutral, saying the stock has had a strong runup and competition grows for the EV maker. The stock is down 2% in premarket.

PacWest shares
PACW,
+0.56%
are up 8% after the regional bank said it sold its loan portfolio to Ares Management
ARES,
-2.37%
in deal that will generates $2 billion ‘to improve liquidity.’

Lucid
LCID,
-4.54%
stock is up 7% after the EV and battery pack maker agreed a deal to provide Aston Martin with powertrain and battery system technology for luxury EVs.

IBM
IBM,
-1.33%
has confirmed a $4.6 billion all-cash deal for privately held software group Appio. IBM shares are down slightly.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures price index — is a big economic highlight, due Friday. Durable goods and some housing market data is coming Tuesday, with appearances by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday and Thursday.

German business sentiment fell in June Fell in June as the country’s manufacturing outlook worsened.

Russia’s defense minister Sergei Shoigu was spotted visiting troops in Ukraine on Monday — his first public appearance since the weekend rebellion pushing for his ouster. Not heard from — President Vladimir Putin or Belarus-bound Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Best of the web

We asked a language model to write career advice based on caterer-turned-coup leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. Here’s what it generated.

Second-quarter corporate profits are set for their biggest drop since the start of the pandemic. But then the worst could be over.

Here’s to not traveling, which turns us into the worst version of ourselves as it convinces us we’re at our best.

Octupus farming — a symbol of what humans should not be doing

The chart

“If this is still a bear market rally it will end up being the longest bear market rally in history (which probably means it isn’t a bear market rally!),” says the Weekly S&P 500 Chartstorm blog by Callum Thomas, head of research and founder @topdowncharts, referring to the below chart:


@joosteninvestor

Top tickers

These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:

Ticker

 Security name
TSLA,
-3.03% 		Tesla
GME,
-2.55% 		GameStop
AMC,
-3.84% 		AMC Entertainment
NVDA,
-1.90% 		Nvidia
LCID,
-4.54% 		Lucid
NIO,
-5.49% 		Nio
AAPL,
-0.17% 		Apple
SPCE,
-18.42% 		Virgin Galactic
MULN,
-4.83% 		Mullen Automotive
AMZN,
-0.63% 		Amazon.com

Random reads

Man bought lifetime United Airlines pass three decades ago, has “lived like a sultan” ever since.

Kylie Minogue’s “Padam Padam’ single is fast-tracking its way to gay classic status.

Naples tells billionaires to park their superyachts somewhere else.

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Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch reporter Charles Passy and economist Stephanie Kelton.



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#Heres #Wall #Streets #bullish #analyst #heading #year #thinks #stock #market

IBBC hosts well attended Conference at The Mansion House | Iraq Business News

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On June 16th IBBC hosted it’s best attended London Conference at The Mansion House yet, with over 280 delegates from Iraq, UK, and International European and Middle East countries.

With an overarching theme of ‘Iraq open to the world’ a wide range of panels discussed Iraq’s rapidly improving international position across economic indicators, political relationships, and security. Baroness Nicholson, IBBC President, welcomed delegates, The Lord Mayor spoke of London’s importance as a financial centre and Lord Ahmed (Minister of State for the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and United Nations) presented an upbeat outline of UK’s trading and political relationship with Iraq including significant increase in bilateral trade in the last year. Professor Hamid Khalaf Ahmed, Executive Director for the Higher Committee for Education Development in Iraq & Advisor to the Prime Minister, spoke on behalf of the Iraqi Prime Minster, to reiterate the determination of the GOI to see through its five priorities, including setting a budget and delivering on targets for corruption and infrastructure development, increase in public sector jobs and investment in education at all levels of Iraqi society. Dr Mohammed Shukri, Chairman, Kurdistan Board of Investment outlined a focus on diverse investment opportunities including agriculture, tech, and infrastructure in the KRG. Two prominent sponsors Mr Sardar Al Bebany, IBBC Executive Committee Member, CEO & Chairman, Sardar Group and Mr Amet Selman, CEO, AAA Holding Group offered their thanks to IBBC audience and outlined their commitment and importance to investing in their people and businesses in Iraq.

Three strong focus areas emerged from the conference, and were reflected in the panels along with other important topics:

Finance, chaired by Mr John Curtin, Ernst & Young Iraq, Included panellists Mr Haider F. Al-Shamaa, International Islamic Bank; Mr Tim Palmer, UK Export Finance; Mr Salahuddin Al-Hadeethi, Ministry of Finance; Dr Yasser Hassan, National Bank of Egypt; Mr Raed Hanna, Mutual Finance Ltd

Energy; Chaired by Mr Luay Al Khateeb, Centre on Global Energy Policy – Columbia U. With a keynote Address from: Mr Laith Al Shaher, Deputy Minister of Oil. Panellists included: Dr Abdulhamzah Hadi Abood, the Advisor from the Ministry of Electricity; Mr Laith Al Shaher, Ministry of Oil; Mr Andrew Wiper, Basrah Gas Company; Mr Mushhood Haider, Scotland Trade, and Investment; Mr Ali Al Janabi, Shell Iraq and UAE; Ms Sara Akbar, Oil Serv 

And keynote discussion on Iraq Open to the World.

Professor Frank Gunter opened the discussion with a keynote presentation of the key findings of his report ‘‘Seaports and Airports of Iraq: Rules Versus Infrastructure’ (see separate briefing here)

Chairman Mrs Hadeel Hasan Al Hadeel Al Hasan LLC led the discussion including, panellists: Professor Frank Gunter, Lehigh University; Mr Steve Alexander; Sardar Group; Mr Richard Cotton, AAA Holdings; Mr Hassan Heshmat, Hydro-C; H.E. Bader Mohammad Alawadi, Ambassador of the State of Kuwait.

Significant panels also included.

Education and skills roundtable; of acute importance due to the technical demands on Iraq’s expanding economy and the need to upgrade university courses and overseas scholarship support for 5,000 Iraqi students from the GOI, Chaired by Professor Mohammed Al Uzri (IBBC Health and Education Advisor) with Professor Hamid Khalaf Ahmed responding to questions and outlining the GOI plans for education with IBBCs University and skills members.

An emergent theme of growing importance is ‘Heritage’, as a business and culturally important sector, chaired by: Professor Mohammed Al Uzri, with Dr John McGinnis, The British Museum; with Prof Gamal Abdelmonem, Nottingham Trent University, Mr Ali Al Makhzomy, Bilweekend; Dr Rosalind Wade Haddon, British Institute for the Study of Iraq; Professor Chris Whitehead, Newcastle University.

During the day there were also a KRG roundtable discussions with Dr Mohammed Shukri and a full complement of KRG businesses and chambers of commerce, A Tech forum on ‘The digitisation of Iraq. Chaired by Ashley Goodall of IBBC, including Mr Saquib Ahmed, MD SAP Iraq; Mr Padraig O’Hannelly, Iraq Business News; Mr Mohsen Garcia, CEO 1001 Media; Mr Peter Chamberlin, Scott Logic, Ms Cynthia El Khoury, Mastercard Iraq; Mr Ali Al-Khairalla, Embassy of the Republic of Iraq (available to view here)

A special ceremony awarded The Rasmi Al Jabri Award (for Iraqi companies dedicated to best international practices and significant growth of Investment and turnover). This year the winners are AAA Holding and Mr Amet Selman for their work for successfully providing fertilizers to the Iraqi market in conjunction with the GOI and third-party agricultural groups. (Video link here). The conference was preceded by an ebullient reception for over 150 delegates the previous evening at the Institute of engineers, where Prof. Dr Sabih G. Khisaf (of Hyperloop Dubai) gave a talk on the importance of engineering and his work on the hyperloop and hosted by John Scott of IBBC.

Christophe Michels, MD of IBBC who chaired the conference commented ‘This is our 11th Iraq Day at The Mansion House and probably the most successful we have had yet. Iraq is rapidly developing, building on a stable budget, good security, political stability, and increasingly good relations with her neighbours. Now is the time for Iraq to truly embrace business and to cut down on outdated bureaucracy, regulations and the corruption going hand in hand with these. If this does not happen, the country risks missing out on all the new opportunities arising from finally opening to the world. As IBBC we are optimistic and will continue to lend our support to our Members and the wider Iraqi community’.

IBBC Spring Conference 2023 Sponsors:

Principal Sponsor: AAA Holding Group

Gold Sponsors: Sardar Group & Trade Bank of Iraq

Bronze Sponsors: Standard Chartered Bank & Hydro – C

To attend future events, including the Iraq SME conference, July 6th, and IBBC Autumn conference in Dubai, Dec 8th, please follow our website.

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