Tag: Nawaz Sharif

Pakistan election 2024 | Imran Khan asks IMF to audit results before considering any bailout talks with new govt

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Pakistan’s jailed former prime minister Imran Khan on February 28 sent a letter to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), urging it to ensure the audit of at least 30% of national and provincial assembly seats before considering any further bailout talks with the cash-strapped country.

The 71-year-old Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party founder had announced last week that he would ask the global lender to avoid any assistance as the authorities rigged the electoral outcome to keep his party out of power.

His nominated chairman of the party, Gohar Ali Khan, addressing a press conference with party secretary General Omar Ayub Khan, confirmed the letter but he refused to share its content. A party spokesman also said that the letter would not be shared with the media until it was recognized by the party.

However, the Press Trust of India has seen a letter addressed to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva by party spokesperson Raoof Hasan under the guidance of Khan. It begins with a clarification that the party was not against the IMF facility to Pakistan.

“It must be clarified at the very outset that the PTI does not wish to stand in the way of any IMF facility to the state of Pakistan that promotes the immediate as well as the long-term economic well-being of the country,” the letter read.

But it added that the IMF facility should be linked with conditions. “It is clear that such facility, along with the national commitment to bring about necessary reforms that facilitate repayment and enable the country to stand on its own feet, can only be negotiated in the best interests of the people of Pakistan by a duly elected government that has the trust of the people of Pakistan,” it stated.

The letter stated that the IMF is attached to good governance, transparency, upholding the rule of law and curbing corrupt practices while entering financing agreements with member countries.

“It is a well-established reality that a government without legitimate representation, when imposed upon a country, carries no moral authority to govern, and, in particular, to carry out taxation measures,” the letter said.

It further recalled that in the previous interaction between Khan and the IMF representatives last year, the party had “agreed to support IMF’s financing facility involving Pakistan on the condition and reassurance of a free and fair election”.

Allegations of rigging, fraud

The letter alleged that the February 8 general elections — which it said caused the public expenditure of ₹50 billion or $180 million — were “subjected to widespread intervention and fraud in the counting of votes and compilation of results”.

“This intervention and fraud have been so brazen that the IMF’s most important member countries, including the US, Britain, and countries forming part of the European Union, have called for a full and transparent investigation into the matter. “A mission of the European Union has carried out an examination of the general elections of February 8, 2024. The report of the said mission must be examined by the IMF and made available to the people of Pakistan,” the party said.

“In view of the policies and principles the IMF stands for, there should be no doubt that the abuse of power by a small number of holders of public office to impose their likes and dislikes on Pakistan’s populace as aforesaid, and thus to ensure their continuing personal gain, would not be promoted or upheld by the IMF,” the letter stated.

“We, therefore, call upon the IMF to give effect to the guidelines adopted by it with respect to good governance as well as conditionalities that must be satisfied prior to the grant of a finance facility that is to burden the people of Pakistan with further debt.

“An audit of at least 30% of the national and provincial assemblies’ seats should be ensured, which can be accomplished in merely two weeks,” the party demanded.

It also said that PTI was not calling for the IMF to adopt the role of an investigative agency itself, and suggested that two indigenous organisations, including the Free and Fair Election Network (Fafen) and PATTAN-Coalition38, had the proposed comprehensive methodologies to conduct the election audit. “Such a role by the IMF would be a great service to Pakistan and its people, and could become the harbinger of enduring prosperity, growth, and macroeconomic stability in the country,” the letter concluded.

IMF’s guarantee

Mr. Gohar said at the presser that the letter was not related to the ongoing programme of the IMF, but was about any new deal with the Government that would come to power as a result of the fraud in the future. Defending the letter, he said that writing a letter to the IMF was not surprising.

PTI Secretary General Omar Ayub Khan said that before the launch of the previous loan, Iman Khan had asked the IMF for a guarantee of clean and transparent elections, which was given to him. According to him, at that time elections were supposed to be held in November, but then they did not take place and the subsequent elections held on February 8 were heavily rigged.

The current IMF programme is expected to conclude in the second week of April.

Official sources said that the new government would seek a fresh loan of about $6 billion from the IMF to help it address the issue of balance of payments. Pakistan last year avoided default after the IMF provided a $3 billion short term loan and it may face problems to meet external liabilities in case the new IMF loan is delayed.

Meanwhile, the IMF’s review mission is likely to visit Islamabad by the end of this month or early next month, provided the government formation at the federal and provincial levels is complete, according to media reports. The mission will finalise the salient features of the anticipated medium-term bailout package to Pakistan to avert a default on repayment of foreign debts.

Earlier, the IMF’s review mission was scheduled to visit the country in the first week of February, but the delegation refused to visit on the eve of the general elections.

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Maryam Nawaz becomes first-ever woman Chief Minister of a province in Pakistan

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Senior PML-N leader Maryam Nawaz, the daughter of three-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, on February- 26, became the first-ever woman Chief Minister of a province in Pakistan when she was elected to head the Punjab province, describing it as an ‘honour’ for every woman in the country.

Maryam, the 50-year-old senior vice president of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party, won the chief ministerial elections amidst a walkout by lawmakers of former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party-backed Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC).

In her maiden speech at the provincial legislature, Maryam thanked God, her father, Nawaz Sharif, uncle Shehbaz Sharif and the lawmakers who voted for her.

Maryam said that she was happy to sit in the seat where her father used to sit. “My father trained me how to run the office,” Maryam, considered the political heir of Nawaz Sharif, said.

“Today, every woman of the province is proud to see a woman Chief Minister,” she said and hoped that the tradition of female leadership would continue in the future as well.

The PML-N leader said she had seen hard times like imprisonment but was thankful to her opponents for making her strong.

“But I will not seek revenge,” she said, indirectly referring to former Army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa and former Chief Justice of Pakistan Saqib Nisar.

Maryam received 220 votes and won the chief ministerial elections for the politically crucial Punjab province, home to 120 million people. She defeated Rana Aftab of the PTI-backed SIC, who received no votes as his party boycotted the election.

“The votes have been counted according to which Maryam has obtained 220 votes, and SIC candidate Rana Aftab Aftab secured zero votes,” said newly-elected Speaker Malik Ahmad Khan while presiding over the session.

To win the Chief Minister’s election, a candidate needs to win the backing of the majority, which is 187 members in the House that currently has 327 seats, according to Geo News. The newly-elected Chief Minister, Maryam, enjoyed the support of the majority in the House.

The PTI-backed SIC’s 103 members have taken oath from its total 113 lawmakers in the Punjab Assembly. Ms. Maryam was backed by PML-N allies, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q), and the Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP).

The walkout by at least 103 SIC members— including the PTI-backed independent lawmakers— was staged after the SIC nominee for Chief Minister, Mr. Aftab, was not permitted to speak at the point of order.

“In today’s session, only elections will be held for the Chief Minister. You cannot speak in today’s session,” Speaker Khan told the SIC candidate as he tried to speak up.

The speaker eventually moved forward with the proceedings to elect a new leader of the House after efforts to bring back the boycotting lawmakers went in vain, according to Dawn newspaper.

Before boycotting the session, the opposition chanted slogans of “Queen of Mandate Thieves” as the PTI claimed that Maryam had lost his seat with a margin of over 800 votes in the February 8 polls besides the party’s over 100 Punjab Assembly seats that had been stolen. It decried that the irony is a “defeated” candidate has become Chief Minister.

Taking a swipe at the walkout by the SIC lawmakers, Maryam said, “Today, I am upset that the respectable members of the opposition benches are not present here […] I wish they would be a part of the political and democratic process.” She said that despite several challenges and difficulties, her party members and the PML-N never left the ground empty.

“If the opposition was present today, and if they had protested during my speech, I would have been happy,” she said.

Meanwhile, the PTI nominee for the chief ministerial post, Mr. Aftab, said, “It seems as if dictatorship persists even today,” according to the report.

Speaking to the media in Lahore as the Punjab Assembly voted for the new leader of the House, Mr. Aftab said, “I am a political worker […] the way I had to pass from there [the assembly], this is shameful for me, and it is also a moment of reflection for all politicians.” He added that the PTI wanted justice as per the law and Constitution to take “this manoeuvred democracy forward”.

Maryam paid a visit to her mother’s grave at Jati Umra before going to the Punjab Assembly, where the election for the post of Chief Minister took place.

In a post on X, the PML-N said Maryam also visited the graves of her paternal grandparents.

“For the first time in the history of our nation, a woman will become the CM Punjab. Maryam Nawaz Sharif will be the first woman to take the oath as CM Punjab!” the PML-N said in a post on X earlier in the day.

Senior PML-N leader Rana Sanaullah, while speaking to the media outside the Punjab Assembly, has said that Maryam will carry her father, Nawaz Sharif, and uncle Shehbaz Sharif’s legacy as Punjab Chief Minister, Geo News reported.

Terming the need to address prevailing political instability as the “biggest challenge”, Mr. Sanaullah said that everyone, including the bureaucracy, would cooperate with Maryam during her term as the Chief Minister.

Maryam is considered the political heir of the 74-year-old PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif, who surprisingly nominated his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif, 72, as his party’s prime ministerial candidate.

The PML-N clinched both speaker and deputy speaker offices in the Punjab Assembly.

In a marathon session of the Punjab Assembly on February 24, the lawmakers elected PML-N leader Malik Ahmad Khan as the custodian of the House and Zaheer Iqbal Channar as his deputy.

The PML-N won 137 seats, while independents backed by 71-year-old Khan’s PTI party won 113 in the Punjab Assembly. Separately, 20-odd independents, not PTI-backed, have already joined the PML-N.

The PTI-backed independent candidates have joined the SIC to get reserved seats for women and minorities besides saving their elected members from being forced to change their loyalty by the military establishment.

However, the SIC may not get reserved seats for women and minorities, leaving the PML-N with a simple majority in Punjab.

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The illusion of change in Pakistan

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The story so far: Pakistan’s recent election was considered a crucial one that would lead to a stable government with a clear mandate, end political instability, and start a process of political healing at the national level, especially in Punjab. The Establishment (the military-dominated deep state) expected the elections would end the Imran revolt and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) experiment. People expected the election process, polling and the final announcement to be free, fair and transparent. The 2024 elections were anything but the above.

According to the results of the National Assembly, the PTI-backed independent candidates have won 93 seats, followed by the Pakistan Muslim League (PML)-N (75), the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) (54), the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)-P (17) and the rest by smaller parties and independents. The PML-N, PPP and MQM-P may gain a few more reserved seats (60 for women and 10 for minorities) depending on the seats they have won. Unfortunately for the PTI, it would not get that share, as its candidates contested as independents. What do the above numbers mean for the Parliament and national politics?

The vote belongs to Imran Khan

The first key takeaway from the elections is that the vote belongs to the PTI and Mr. Khan, even though the party did not have a level playing field. Mr. Khan has been arrested and charged with numerous cases and just before the elections, two court verdicts barred him from contesting in elections. The Establishment, pursuing methods to discipline Mr.Khan for the May 9 riots in 2023, forced most of the second-rung PTI leaders to leave the party. In Punjab, Jahangir Tareen launched the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP) to dent the PTI’s presence in Pakistan’s largest province. Similarly, in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) region, Pervez Khattak, another confidant of Mr. Khan and PTI’s former defence minister, formed a faction. In a final blow, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) debarred the PTI from contesting as a party (on the pretext of the party’s failure to hold intra-party elections), and removed the “bat” symbol. With most of his trusted lieutenants leaving, multiple cases charged against him, and he himself incarcerated, it was an arduous task for Mr. Khan to find candidates to contest, keep up morale and ask his cadres to vote.

Despite all the above odds, the PTI-backed candidates won 93 seats for the National Assembly, 18 more than the PML-N. The PTI has secured over half of these seats from Punjab (around 50), supposedly the PML-N’s home ground. In KP also, the PTI has swept, with other political parties securing seats in single digits. Though the PTI may not form the government, the 2024 election clearly belongs to Mr. Khan and the party.

What the Establishment wants, it gets

The election results should see the Establishment’s best-laid plans crashing. The mandate is clearly against what it wanted. Many in Pakistan consider the pro-Imran vote as that against the Establishment. The Establishment would have wanted the PML-N to win, especially in Punjab, and expected its pre-election political engineering to dent the widespread support for Mr. Khan and the PTI. However, both these things have not happened.

This brings us to the second factor of these elections — that the Establishment will still call the shots. Ironically, it should still be happy that the PML-N has no absolute majority and has to work on a coalition to form the government in Islamabad and Lahore. An element of political instability will work in the Establishment’s favour. Whether the vote is what it wanted, or against its plan, the Establishment will continue its political engineering. And political parties will fall in line; those who refuse, will face the wall and the jails, as Mr. Khan’s case shows us.

Nawaz’s diminishing returns

The third aspect of the elections is the Nawaz factor, or rather the lack of it. Nawaz Sharif came back to Pakistan on the Establishment’s approval. The plan was that Mr. Sharif’s return would increase the PML-N’s chances and dent PTI’s, especially in Punjab. However, the return of Mr. Sharif has not catapulted the PML-N back into the driver’s seat — either at the national level or in Punjab. Except for a few seats in Balochistan and KP, most of the seats won by the PML-N come from Punjab. Even in Punjab, the PTI has won almost equal seats for the national and provincial assemblies. The PML-N will be unable to form a government in Punjab without the others’ support. At the national level, discounting the reserved seats, the PML-N had won only ten more seats in 2024, vis-à-vis the 2018 elections.

While one could understand the PML-N’s performance in the 2018 elections with Mr. Sharif exiled and the Establishment favouring Mr. Khan then, its 2024 performance, especially in Punjab, needs introspection. Compare it with the PTI and PPP, both of which have their home turfs — the KP and Sindh — intact and are likely to form a government independently in these two provinces.

Continuing political instability

The fourth takeaway is that the political instability of 2023 will continue into 2024. During 2021-22, the PML-N and PPP came together with a few other parties to form the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) to overthrow the PTI government. Eventually, the coalition overthrew Mr. Khan’s government in April 2022, resulting in Shehbaz Sharif becoming the Prime Minister, with support from the PPP and others. The PTI took to the streets against the PDM, creating political instability in Pakistan.

However, the situation hasn’t changed much. Now the PPP and PML-N have agreed to form a government at the national level, along with other political parties minus the PTI. The outcome of this deal, looks more like PDM 2.0. The PTI, the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and a few other regional parties have already announced filing cases in courts, renouncing the results, and taking to the streets.

Eventually, the Courts will have to interfere in cases on the election results.

With the PML-N and PPP in government, PTI in the streets, cases in the courts, and the Establishment to decide a unified government, it is not just PDM 2.0, it will be 2023 2.0, a continuation of the political instability of 2023.

The fifth factor is regarding provinces. In KP and Sindh, there is clarity in verdict. People have voted for Mr. Khan and the PTI in KP. Similarly, in Sindh, the PPP has swept the province for national and provincial assembly seats, while MQM-P has retained its stronghold in Karachi. Balochistan, as usual, has seen mixed results, with no single party having substantial numbers — both for the national and provincial assemblies. For the provincial assembly, the PPP and JUI-F have secured 11 seats each, followed by the PML-N (10), PTI-backed independents (6) and others (13). Regional parties have been protesting against the results on charges of rigging.

Regional parties losing relevance

Sixth is the curious case of regional and religious political parties in the 2024 elections. At the national level, except for the MQM-P (14 seats for the national assembly and 28 for the Sindh provincial assembly), no other regional party from the Sindh, Balochistan and KP have made an impact. The Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA), Awami National Party (ANP), Balochistan National Party (BNP), and others from the three provinces have made little or no impact. The PML-Q from Punjab could win only three for the national assembly.

Equally important is the case of religious political parties — JI, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) and the newly formed Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP). The JI could not win a single seat for the national assembly; its emir — Sairajul Haq, taking responsibility has announced his resignation. The JUI-F has survived with a few seats for the national assembly (03), and a few for the provincial assemblies of KP and Balochistan. The TLP could secure only one seat — that too for the provincial assembly from Punjab. Therefore, for the time being, both regional and religious parties (perhaps except the MQM), are likely to remain provincial.

To conclude, the Establishment will hold the turf. Despite the PTI-backed candidates gaining more seats, a cursory overview of the elections will reveal the same at both the national and provincial level.

D. Suba Chandran is a Professor and Dean at the National Institute of Advanced Studies at Bengaluru and coordinates “Pakistan Reader” at NIAS.

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Pakistan parties intensify efforts to form coalition government after split verdict in February 8 elections

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The three main political parties in Pakistan on February 11 intensified their efforts for the formation of a coalition government after it became clear that the coup-prone country faced a hung Parliament after general elections marred by allegations of rigging.

The general elections were held on February 8, but the unusual delay in the announcement of results vitiated the atmosphere as several parties cried foul and some resorted to protests.

Former Prime Minister and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz supremo Nawaz Sharif received the backing of the powerful Pakistan Army chief General Asim Munir on February 10 for his call for a unity government to pull Pakistan out of its current difficulties.

Amidst allegations of vote rigging and inordinate delay in announcing the results, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) on February 11 published the results of 264 out of 265 contested seats in the 266-member National Assembly. The result of one constituency was withheld by the ECP due to complaints of fraud. Election to one seat was postponed after the death of a candidate.

Independent candidates, a vast majority of them backed by jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), won 101 seats in the National Assembly.

They were followed by three-time former PM Mr. Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) with 75 seats, which technically is the single largest party in Parliament.

The Pakistan Peoples Party of Bilawal Zardari Bhutto got 54 seats, and the Karachi-based Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan (MQM-P) of Urdu-speaking people who migrated from India during the Partition, got 17 seats. Other smaller parties won the rest of the 12 seats.

To form a government, a party must win 133 seats out of 265 contested seats in the National Assembly.

Overall, 169 seats are needed to secure a simple majority out of its total 336 seats, which include the reserved slots for women and minorities which will be decided later based on proportional representation.

The PML-N was leading the push to form the coalition government on the pattern of one it set up after Mr. Khan, 71, was removed as Prime Minister through a no-confidence vote in April 2022. Party supremo Mr. Sharif, 74, tasked his younger brother former premier Shehbaz Sharif to hold talks on the issue.

The PML-N leaders on Sunday held a meeting with MQM-P leaders in Lahore.

After an hour-long meeting, they have reached a “principle agreement” to work together in the upcoming government, according to a statement released by Mr. Sharif’s party.

“We will work together in the interest of the country and public,” the statement said, adding that basic points had been agreed upon by the two parties.

MQM-P leader Haider Rizvi earlier told Geo News in an interview that his party would be more comfortable with the PML-N as the “two parties don’t compete in Karachi” unlike the PPP or other parties.

PML-N President Shehbaz on February 10 met senior PPP leaders Asif Ali Zardari and Bilawal on February 9 night and discussed the future coalition.

Mr. Shehbaz told the party leaders that former President and PPP leader Asif Zardari has demanded the Prime Minister’s slot for PPP Chairman Bilawal and major ministerial portfolios in exchange for support for the PML-N to form the government, sources said.

Party sources added that so far making a coalition with Mr. Zardari was the first option the PML-N was exploring but didn’t want to give away the slot of Prime Minister.

Sources claimed the meeting decided that in case the negotiations with the PPP failed, the PML-N would make a coalition government with MQM, JUI-F and other smaller parties, including independents.

They further claimed that in this scenario, the PML-N would make Shehbaz Sharif the Prime Minister and Maryam Sharif the Chief Minister of Punjab.

“Shehbaz Sharif is the favourite for the PM office for being more close to the military establishment besides the PML-N has more seats in Parliament than the PPP,” sources said.

“Shehbaz is a favourite of the military establishment which feels much comfortable working with him,” they said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Bilawal, the 35-year-old former foreign minister said no one could form governments in the Centre, Punjab or Balochistan without his party’s support, and the PPP’s door was open to every political party for dialogue, as reconciliation was vital for political stability.

“So far, the PPP has not engaged officially with the PML-N, PTI or any other party. Once the results are finalised, then the Central Executive Committee of the party, which nominated me as the candidate, will sit again and devise the course of action,” he said.

It is believed that a newer version of the Pakistan Democratic Movement coalition, also called as PDM government, under Shehbaz Sharif was more likely based on the experience of running the government after Mr. Khan was removed.

Meanwhile, PTI leader Gohar Khan also claimed that his party would form the government but analysts believe that it was not possible.

Ahmed Bilal Mehboob of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT), however, said the PTI is not in a position to form the government without forming an alliance with major political parties like the PML-N or the PPP as it doesn’t have the required number for claiming majority in the lower house of Parliament.

The PILDAT chief also explained in detail what would happen if the PTI-affiliated independent candidates could join the PTI again during the three-day post-election period, The Express Tribune newspaper quoted Mehboob as saying.

He said it was possible. However, Mehboob explained that it will be a long route as it is mandatory that the party that the independent candidates want to join must have a party symbol.

PTI candidates contested as independents after the Supreme Court and Election Commission of Pakistan said they could not use the party symbol, a cricket bat.

Therefore, he said, if they want to join the PTI again, the PTI will have to hold intra-party elections and get its symbol back or any other symbol.

The PTI has rejected the “shameful” attempts at creating PDM 2.0 in the country by trampling on the intentions of the people, a statement released by the party said.

“The economic and administrative disaster that Pakistan is suffering today is the responsibility of PDM, an incompetent, worthless and rejected group of criminals,” it said in a statement.

The statement said the PTI was the “largest and most popular party in the country” and it therefore had the basic constitutional, democratic, moral and political right to form a government.

“The chief election commissioner (CEC) and the Election Commission of Pakistan are the main facilitators in the open robbery of democracy,” it added.

The PTI also demanded the immediate resignation of the CEC and members of the ECP.

On February 10, a statement attributed to the army chief Gen Munir said, “Pakistan’s diverse polity and pluralism will be well-represented by a unified government of all democratic forces imbibed with national purpose.”

The powerful Pakistan Army, which has ruled coup-prone Pakistan for more than half of its 75-plus years of existence, has wielded considerable power in the country’s politics.

The Army chief noted that the people of Pakistan reposed their combined trust in the Constitution of Pakistan and it was now “incumbent upon all political parties to reciprocate the same with political maturity and unity.”

Pakistan President Dr Arif Alvi on February 11 said the voters, particularly women and youth, have “not only spoken but shouted out loud their will” in the general elections and urged all political parties and institutions to “respect and recognise” the huge mandate of the citizens.

Mr. Alvi was a senior member of PTI before former Prime Minister Imran Khan made him the country’s President in 2018.

Meanwhile, the PPP will hold its Central Executive Committee meeting at Mr. Zardari’s House in Islamabad on February 12.

According to the sources, important decisions related to the formation of the government will be taken in the meeting.

In an editorial on the election outcome, the Dawn newspaper commented that Pakistan once again finds itself in a familiar place — one that is steeped in political uncertainty.

“As the wheeling and dealing proceeds, two things are clear: one, that however the PML-N cobbles this coalition together, its ‘victory’ will be more bitter than sweet,” it said in an editorial.

Without the outcome it had hoped for, it is now left to perform that uneasy dance of give and take for political survival. This is certainly not the fantasy Mr. Sharif harboured when he returned to Pakistan after four years abroad, the editorial added.

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Pakistan elections 2024 | Jailed ex-PM Imran Khan claims election victory as his supporters lead in polls

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Independents backed by jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan won the most seats in Pakistan’s election on Feb. 9 after results from over half the constituencies were announced, leaving political parties trailing.

Almost 24 hours have passed since the close of polls and the results have been unusually delayed, which the government ascribed to the suspension of mobile phone services — a security measure ahead of Thursday’s election.

According to the latest Election Commission data, results of 226 constituencies out of 265 were declared. Independent candidates (mostly supported by PTI) bagged 92 seats while PML-N got 64, Pakistan Peoples Party secured 50, Muttahida Qaumi Movement won 12 and other parties got 8 seats.

To form a government, a party must win 133 seats out of 265 in the National Assembly. Election to one seat was postponed after the death of a candidate.

Overall, 169 seats are needed to secure a simple majority out of its total 336 seats, which include the reserved slots for women and minorities.

Imran Khan claims election victory

Meanwhile, jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan claimed victory in the country’s general election in an audio-visual message created using artificial intelligence and shared on his X social media account.

In the message, which is usually delivered by word through his lawyers, Khan rejected rival Nawaz Sharif’s earlier claim to victory. Khan called on his supporters to celebrate a win that was achieved despite what he calls a crackdown on his party.

Sharif’s fails to win majority

Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) won 64 while the Pakistan Peoples Party of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of assassinated premier Benazir Bhutto, got 50.

The rest were won by small parties and other independents.

Independent members cannot form a government on their own under Pakistan’s complex election system which also includes reserved seats that will be allotted to parties based on their winnings.

But independent members have the option to join any party after the elections.

Khan is in jail and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party was barred from the election, so his supporters contested as independents.

Also Read: People of Pakistan to decide its future leadership: U.S.

Analysts have predicted there may be no clear winner, adding to the woes of a country struggling to recover from an economic crisis while it grapples with rising militant violence in a deeply polarised political environment.

“A timely announcement of the results, leading to a smooth formation of a new government will reduce policy and political uncertainty,” Moody’s Investors Service said. “This is crucial for the country that is facing very challenging macroeconomic conditions.”

The delay in the announcement of results was unusual for elections in Pakistan. Karachi’s stock index and Pakistan’s sovereign bonds fell because of the uncertainty.

An “internet issue” was the reason behind the delay, Zafar Iqbal, Special Secretary at the ECP, said without elaborating.

The main electoral battle was expected to be between candidates backed by Khan, whose PTI won the last national election, and the PML-N of Sharif. Khan believes the powerful military is behind a crackdown to hound his party out of existence, while analysts and opponents say Sharif is being backed by the generals.

The military has dominated the nuclear-armed country either directly or indirectly in its 76 years of independence but for several years it has maintained it does not interfere in politics.

Sharif, considered by many observers to be a strong candidate, has dismissed talk of an unclear result but a close aide, Ishaq Dar, told GEO TV that the party could form a coalition with the support of independents.

“I am confident that we will form a government,” Mr. Dar said.

Sharif appeals rival parties to join hands to form unity govt

Mr. Sharif appeals rival parties to join hands to form unity govt to rebuild Pakistan after he fails to win majority

Mr. Sharif called for a unity government as the cash-strapped Pakistan appeared to be heading towards a hung parliament, with independent candidates backed by jailed ex-Premier Khan’s party springing a surprise by winning most of the 226 seats for which results were declared so far.

Addressing the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) supporters at the party’s Central Secretariat in Lahore, 74-year-old Sharif said his party respects the mandate of all parties, including the independent candidates backed by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party.

IMF bailout

If the election does not result in a clear majority for anyone, as analysts are predicting, tackling multiple challenges will be tricky — foremost being seeking a new bailout programme from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) after the current arrangement expires in three weeks.

A coalition government “would probably be unstable, weak” and “the big loser…will be the Army. Because the army really has staked its reputation on its ability to deliver this vote”, said Marvin Weinbaum, Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

The election was expected to help resolve the crises Pakistan has been dealing with but a fractured verdict “could very well be the basis for even deeper exposure to forces which would create instability”, he said.

Thousands of troops were deployed on the streets and at polling stations across the country for the voting on Thursday. Borders with Iran and Afghanistan were temporarily closed as security was stepped up.

Despite the heightened security, 28 people, including two children, were killed in 56 violent incidents including bomb blasts, grenade attacks and shootings by militants, the Interior Ministry said.

“Despite a few isolated incidents, the overall situation remained under control, demonstrating the effectiveness of our security measures,” Interior Minister Gohar Ejaz said.

Washington was concerned about “steps that were taken to restrict freedom of expression, specifically around internet and cellphone use,” State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel told reporters.

The U.S. strongly condemned election-related violence both in the run-up to the polls and on election day, Mr. Patel added.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also expressed concern about the violence and the suspension of mobile communications services, his spokesperson said in an e-mailed statement.

Amnesty International called the suspension of mobile services “a blunt attack on the rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly”.

(With inputs from PTI)



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The ‘generals’ elections’ that turned against Pakistan’s military

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Pakistan’s 2024 general elections were dubbed the “most rigged” in the country’s history, with the popular Imran Khan barred from running and the military seen as backing former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. That was before results showed Khan-backed independent candidates leading the race. The stage appears to be set for a turbulent period after an irate electorate reacted to the military’s perceived meddling in politics – again.

Voters in the 2024 Pakistani general elections manoeuvred sheaves of ballot papers offering a profusion of symbols including tables, chairs, apples, airplanes, calculators and kitchen appliances. But there was no cricket bat on the ballot. 

With former cricket star and prime minister Imran Khan behind bars, his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party was banned from using its signature icon in a country where symbols are important tools for the electorate because of high illiteracy rates. This forced PTI-backed candidates to run as independents, each using different symbols that stretched ballot papers and the national imagination.

The country’s real power-wielder, however, was not on the ballot paper, and Pakistanis were never given a symbol or say on the issue.

The 2024 general election was dubbed the most rigged in Pakistan’s history, with wags on social media calling it the “generals’ election”, referring to the all-powerful military in the nuclear-armed South Asian nation.

The consensus ahead of the vote was that regardless of who forms a government, the army would continue to rule the roost. The newly elected civilian administration would simply have to follow the rules of the Pakistani power game to survive.

In the course of its 76-year history, Pakistan has developed a system that some scholars call a “hybrid regime” featuring a mix of civilian politics and military interference in electoral democracy. The tacit agreement sees the generals controlling defence and foreign policies, leaving domestic socioeconomic issues to the politicians.

But the hybrid model has been changing in recent years, putting Pakistan in dangerous terrain. And the man widely believed to be calling the shots in the military has done little to inspire national confidence.

Prospect of a ‘chatterbox’ parliament

With Khan losing military support, and his party stymied at the poll, the military’s chosen candidate, veteran politician Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) party was expected to snag an outright win.

An outright Sharif win would see the dynastic Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) – led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, son of assassinated premier Benazir Bhutto – going into opposition. It would see the two establishment parties once again dominating Pakistani politics.

But after a surprisingly strong showing by PTI-backed independent candidates, who led the national election results, Sharif changed tack on Friday, declaring he would form a coalition government.

“We don’t have enough of a majority to form a government without the support of others and we invite allies to join the coalition so we can make joint efforts to pull Pakistan out of its problems,” he said.

Nawaz Sharif, center, addresses supporters in Lahore, Pakistan, February 9, 2024. © K.M. Chaudary, AP

Under Pakistan’s electoral rules, victorious independent candidates can join any party in the 336-seat National Assembly. With the imprisoned Khan facing nearly 200 legal charges ranging from corruption to leaking state secrets, experts predict the popular former cricketer-politician is likely to remain behind bars for several years.

The results of Thursday’s vote point to fractious political period ahead, warns Ayesha Siddiqa, senior fellow at King’s College, London, and author of “Military Inc.: Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy”. “If there are many independents in parliament, it will make the house a chatterbox,” she noted. “It will be an unruly, funny kind of parliament with everyone going for each other’s jugulars.”

Khan’s fall from military grace

Overseeing the political turbulence is the man at the helm of the military, Pakistani army chief General Asim Munir. This comes as the country faces major economic and security crises.

Khan may be behind bars, but he remains a political force. The former cricketer-politician maintains that the myriad legal charges against him are politically motivated. Most Pakistanis, including Khan’s opponents, do not disagree. A weak judiciary means Pakistan is ranked 130th out of 142 countries on the World Justice Project’s Rule of Law index.

A poster of Imran Khan on display at his party office in Islamabad, February 9, 2024.
A poster of Imran Khan on display at his party office in Islamabad, February 9, 2024. © Anjum Naveed, AP

Since General Munir was appointed army chief in November 2022, Khan’s legal woes have multiplied. At times, they have taken an absurdly personal turn.

Relations between the two men have been acrimonious since Khan was elected prime minister in 2018 and replaced Munir as chief of Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) spy agency with a loyalist, according to Pakistani media reports.

Read morePakistan army chief’s deepening rift with Imran Khan

On February 3, just days before the election, a Pakistani court sentenced Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi to seven years in jail in a case related to their marriage, which it declared “un-Islamic”.

The verdict was widely criticised by legal experts as a “disgrace” and a “damning blot” on Pakistan’s judiciary.

Sharif rises again

When he stood for elections in 2018, Khan was widely seen as the military’s candidate, “handpicked, groomed and installed” by the generals. But that was until Khan fell out with the army in a fate shared by Sharif, the politician widely tipped to be Pakistan’s new prime minister.

Khan and Sharif’s reversal of fortunes reflects the dramatic shift in Pakistani politics, which has been likened to a “Game of Thrones”. In 2017, Sharif was ousted as prime minister when he attempted to institute civilian oversight of the military. After he was hit with a slew of corruption charges, Sharif went into self-imposed exile abroad to avoid serving sentences. Khan at that time was viewed as the army’s favourite son.

But as the country spiralled into political turmoil last year, with Khan’s supporters storming army residences and bases in unprecedented displays of disaffection with the military, Sharif was back in the generals’ favour.

After four years of exile, Sharif returned to Pakistan last October.  Within weeks of his return, his convictions were overturned, leaving him free to seek a fourth term in office.

A businessman and former chief minister of Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous and prosperous province, Sharif has a record of pursuing economic growth and development. During his previous stints as prime minister, the billionaire politician sought closer trade ties with India, Pakistan’s giant neighbour and arch-foe.

Sharif’s return to Pakistan was widely viewed as a sign that the military was seeking a safe pair of hands to handle the country’s crippling economic crisis. But over the past few months, the military has been increasingly encroaching on the economic turf.

Army takes top seat on economic council

More than seven decades after independence, Pakistan is facing its worst economic crisis. Inflation has hovered around 30 percent, sending the currency, the rupee, into freefall. Last year, the impoverished South Asian nation narrowly escaped a sovereign debt default when the IMF approved a $3 billion bailout package.

While it was provided a band-aid from the brink, Pakistan still has to tackle major structural problems since it is seeking a new IMF bailout programme after the current arrangement expires in three weeks.

As the crisis deepened last year, Pakistan established an apex economic body, the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), to coordinate economic and fiscal policies. 

The formation of the SIFC was touted as a key move to raise international investor confidence and uphold democratic governance. But then the army secured a top seat at the economic policy table, raising eyebrows in fiscal circles with the announcement that the co-chair of the new SIFC was none other than army Chief General Munir.

When ‘dangerous duffers’ call the shots

The 2024 vote saw the army playing an exceptionally heavy card, even by Pakistani standards. The tactic appeared to have failed, with voters overcoming the odds to elect PTI-backed candidates. But this could spell a period of further turbulence, analysts warn.

“Assuming most of the independent candidates are PTI, if [Sharif’s] PML-N has to form a government, it will have to form a coalition,” said Siddiqa. “The weaker the coalition, the stronger [the] military.”

The military’s meddling in politics has long earned the wrath of Pakistani democratic rights defenders. Nearly 15 years ago, one of the country’s leading human rights lawyers, the late Asma Jehangir, created a stir when she called the country’s military leaders “duffers” on a live TV show.

Jehangir subsequently modified her monicker to “dangerous duffers”, noting that the term implied the military top brass was “not only incompetent, but incapable of learning”. 

The latest election has shown that Jehangir’s verdict still holds, according to Siddiqa.    

“They haven’t changed that much, they’re still dangerous duffers because they think they have a role in governance,” she said. “But the military is a strong pole, and so are the political parties. With this election, the political parties are back in play. It now depends on how they conduct themselves.”

In the past, Pakistan’s political parties have formed common cause with the army in a bid to unseat rivals. The lack of civilian unity to relegate the military to the barracks has enabled the generals to periodically meddle with the ballots. Following Thursday’s vote, social media sites were awash with messages by Pakistanis calling for dialogue and national unity. If their calls are ignored, it will not be for the first time in Pakistan’s troubled history.

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Watch | Pakistan elections | A new dawn or more of the same?

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Pakistan prepares for political chaos as election results suggest a surge in favour of Imran Khan’s candidates– but with no clear winner yet, can the man seen as the military’s choice- Nawaz Sharif still forge a government?

Results are trickling in from Pakistan’s election nearly 24 hours later- which itself is news, as normally results are done within 8 or 9 hours of the polls closing- leading to fears of electoral manipulations further. Whatever else is in doubt- this is certainly not the easy win that many had predicted for Nawaz Sharif

I’m not going to confuse you by giving figures that may get dates- what we will try to do is look at the broad trends, what possible outcomes there could be- what that means for Pakistan, and then how that changes the course if at all for the rest of the region, especially India.

So first- Heres what you need to know about Pakistan elections and what they voted for

1. Pakistan holds elections for 266 seats of the National Assembly or parliament- , and State assembly elections. The National Assembly has 336 seats in all- 60 are reserved for women, 10 for minorities which are nominated by parties in proportion to their seats.

2. 134 seats are needed by a party or a coalition to be invited to form government- an if you look at the number of seats, it is easy to see how Punjab state is the main decider of the National government- here is the break up of seats:

Punjab – 141 seats

Sindh- 61 seats

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa- 45 seats

Balochistan- 16 seats

Islamabad Capital Territory- 3 seats

3. Provincial or State Assembly elections for Punjab, Sind, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assemblies are also expected- broad trends appear to give Sindh to the Pakistan People’s Party, KPK to Independents affilitated to Imran Khan, while Punjab is seeing many wins by Independents, but Sharif’s PML-N as the biggest party and likely to form the state assembly. It should also be noted that while Independents were winning by large leads across the country overnight- by the next afternoon- it seemed many of the results turned in favour of PML-N

Now what’s different about these elections?

  1. Former PM Imran Khan is in jail- and still very popular… he was disqualified from standing after being charged with corruption, misappropriation and a case of national security. He has not been able to campaign, or speak to supporters, and has used AI and other innovative means to reach voters. On voting day, the government suspended the internet, and telephone communications were down, leading to more allegations that this was an attempt to manage the outcome.
  2. While leaders of major parties have often been in jail during elections – this is the first time since 2008 where a political party itself has been stopped from campaigning- Imran Khan’s PTI has lost not just its recognition, but also its party symbol the cricket bat- and as a result had to put up candidates with different symbols.
  3. Nawaz Sharif- former PM, who had earlier been disqualified and sentenced to prison has been given protection from arrest, and a waiver of the charges against him that allowed him to return to Pakistan after 4 years
  4. Analysts say this election in 2024 is the mirror image of the 2018 elections- when Imran Khan won the elections, while Nawaz Sharif was convicted and sentenced to prison.
  5. But what has made this election truly different is this- that the PTI has not given up standing for elections despite the restrictions, that people have registered a strong turnout despite the cynicism, and the votes for a record number of independents show that there was both a political and public resistance to the outcome that was seen as the military establishment’s favourite for this election 

Possible Outcomes of the Pakistan vote :

  1. A hung assembly in which no party wins a clear majority, and even the PML-N and the PPP are not able to forge a winning coalition- leading to long term chaos
  2. Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N goes ahead and stakes claim to form government, if it is the biggest party. It then manages to win a confidence vote by turning Independents to shift their allegiance from the PTI to PML
  3. Even the PPP has a path to power as it could be seen as the lesser of two evils by Imran Khan affiliated independents
  4. The PTI’s Independents sign support for one of their leaders and form a coalition of their own. Remember, the President, who has to invite the next PM to form a government is still Arif Alvi, from the PTI party.

Each of these outcomes could see a massive backlash on the streets, or even from establishment backed militia- and the violence could take a turn for the worse.

-The last such elections- where East Pakistan’s Mujib ur Rahman won elections in 1970 but this was not accepted by then President Yahya Khan- eventually led to protests and violence that saw the creation of Bangladesh a year later

-Elections in the post-Zia Ul Haq period in 1993-1996 and from 2008-2018 have all seen the military range in favour of one or other party- leading to them being called selections not elections. Even so, the results have more or less been accepted in the past, and the question, will these elections see a pushback?

-In 2013, Imran Khan began a nationwide campaign against the election results where Sharif won- and that led to a change in government…Remember, no Pakistan PM has ever completed a full term in office- due mainly to the military’s interference

Impact for region and India:

  1. Concerns about Pakistan heading into political chaos- causing regional instability with Pakistan’s unstable borders with Iran, Afghanistan and India
  2. Pakistan’s economy has been in free fall, and confidence in its recovery may plunge further. With uncertainty over the elections, Markets at the Karachi Stock Exchange dropped 2,000 points on Friday morning.
  3. In particular, the questions over an IMF default, and a greater dependence on China- that holds an estimated $67 billion in loans to Pakistan at present- will push Pakistan even further into an economic collapse
  4. A spike in terrorism ahead of elections- blasts in Balochistan that saw dozens killed just before polls, as well as TTP attacks in Khyber Pukthunkhwa could spill over in the rest of the region
  5. In a subcontinent where Bangladesh, Pakistan, Maldives, India and Sri Lanka are all due for elections- the appearance of manipulated elections tars the entire neighbourhood 

WV Take:

From the start, the elections in Pakistan have been seen as an unfair match- where one side, the PTI arguably the most popular had to run the election- without their captain, without their bat, without a level playing field, and the Umpire ruling against them at every turn. While that will only increase the cynicism worldwide over democracy in Pakistan, pragmatism may involve forging some kind of engagement with whoever is the power in a country, as New Delhi has done with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Over all, it may be best to do nothing at all until the dust settles on these very contested election results

READING RECOMMENDATIONS:

  1. Anger Management: The Troubled Diplomatic Relationship between India and Pakistan by Ajay Bisaria
  2. The Nine Lives of Pakistan: Dispatches from a Divided Nation Paperback – 2 November 2021 by Declan Walsh
  3. The Struggle for Pakistan: A Muslim Homeland and Global Politics by Ayesha Jalal
  4. The People Next Door: The Curious History of India-Pakistan Relations by T.C.A. Raghavan
  5. Neither a Hawk nor a Dove : An Insiders Account Of Pakistans Foreign Policy by Khurshid Mehmud Kasuri

 Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar

Production: Gayatri Menon and Shibu Narayan

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Polls close in Pakistan after millions vote in election marred by violence

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Millions of Pakistanis voted Thursday in an election marred by rigging allegations, with authorities suspending mobile phone services throughout the day and the country’s most popular politician in jail.

At least seven officers were killed in two separate attacks targeting election security details, and officials reported a string of minor blasts in southwestern Balochistan province that wounded two people.

Pollsters predicted a low turnout from the country’s 128 million eligible voters following a lacklustre campaign overshadowed by the jailing of former prime minister Imran Khan, and the hobbling of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party by the military-led establishment.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is expected to win the most seats in Thursday’s vote, with analysts saying its 74-year-old founder Nawaz Sharif has won the blessing of the generals.

Adding to concerns about the integrity of the vote, authorities announced just before polls opened that they had suspended mobile telephone services across the country “to maintain law and order” after two blasts on Wednesday that killed 28 people.

Nighat Dad, a lawyer who runs the not-for-profit Digital Rights Foundation, said the outage “is an attack on the democratic rights of Pakistanis”.

“Shutting down mobile phone services is not a solution to national security concerns. If you shut down access to information you create more chaos”.

Voters in Pakistan rely on a text messaging service to confirm the polling station where they are registered.

Forty-year-old Abdul Jabbar said the internet disruption stopped him and his wife from using the service. 

“Other PTI supporters helped us to trace it in the end,” he told AFP.

Khan’s party calls decision to suspend mobile service a ‘betrayal’


Polling stations opened at 8:00 am (0300 GMT) and were due to close at 5:00 pm. They were guarded by armed security forces.

“My only fear is whether my vote will be counted for the same party I cast it for. At the same time, for the poor it does not matter who is ruling — we need a government that can control inflation,” said Syed Tassawar, a 39-year-old construction worker

First-time voter Haleema Shafiq, a 22-year-old psychology student, said she believed in the importance of voting.

“I believe in democracy. I want a government that can make Pakistan safer for girls,” she told AFP in Islamabad.

In the central city of Multan, Ayesha Bibi said the next government must provide more schools for rural women. 

“We came here by foot and then on a tractor trailer. It was a very difficult and hard journey,” said the housewife. 

More than 650,000 army, paramilitary and police personnel were deployed to provide security for an election already marred by violence.

Five security personnel were killed Thursday in an attack in Kulachi in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, a police official said, adding that a separate mortar attack on a polling station in the province caused no casualties.

In Balochistan province, two security officers were killed and nine wounded by a blast near a polling station in Lajja town, another official said. 

The Balochistan port city of Gwadar saw 14 “minor blasts”, injuring two people, police official Zohaib Hassan said. 

On Wednesday, at least 28 people were killed and more than 30 wounded by two bomb blasts outside the offices of candidates in the province in attacks claimed hours later by the Islamic State group.

Read moreDeadly twin blasts target Pakistani candidate offices on eve of election

 

Justifying the mobile phone shutdown, an interior ministry spokesman said “security measures are essential to maintain law and order situation and to deal with potential threats”.

The foreign ministry said land borders with neighbours Iran and Afghanistan would also be closed to all traffic Thursday as a security measure.

The election figures are staggering in the nuclear-armed nation of 240 million people — the world’s fifth-most populous.

Nearly 18,000 candidates are standing for seats in the national and four provincial assemblies, with 266 seats directly contested in the former — an additional 70 reserved for women and minorities — and 749 places in the regional parliaments.

Tables turned

Thursday’s election has a similar air to the 2018 poll, but with the tables turned. 

Then, it was Sharif who was disqualified from running because of a string of convictions for graft, while Khan swept to power with the backing of the military, as well as genuine support. 

As he cast his vote at a school in Lahore Thursday, Sharif denied that he had made any deal with the military to rule.

“Actually I have never had any problems with the military,” he said.

The history of Pakistan elections is chequered with allegations of rigging but also favouritism, said Bilal Gilani, executive director of polling group Gallup Pakistan.

“It’s a managed democracy that the military runs,” he said.

Read moreRevolving door politics? Shadow of military looms over Pakistan elections

Unlike the last poll, however, the opposition party has had its name removed from ballots, forcing PTI-selected candidates to run as independents.

Khan, a former international cricketer who led Pakistan to victory in the World Cup in 1992, was last week sentenced to lengthy jail terms for treason, graft, and an illegal marriage.

A PTI official told AFP that Khan had been allowed a postal ballot from Adiala Jail.

Analysts say the character assassination shows how worried the military is that PTI-selected candidates could still prove a decisive factor in Thursday’s vote.

If Sharif does not win a ruling majority, he will most likely still take power via a coalition with one or more junior partners — including the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), another family-run dynasty now led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.

Whoever wins takes over a deeply divided country, observers say, with the economy in tatters.

Inflation is galloping at nearly 30 percent, the rupee has been in free fall for three years and a balance of payments deficit has frozen imports, severely hampering industrial growth.

(AFP)

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Pakistan prepares for crucial elections in 2024 as ties with India remain frozen

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Pakistan-India bilateral relations remained frozen for the fourth year over the vexed Kashmir issue but analysts hope the strained ties could be repaired if Nawaz Sharif becomes the Prime Minister for a record fourth time in the general elections in February in the absence of his main challenger Imran Khan who is in jail in multiple cases.

The main highlight of the outgoing year was a visit to India by then-foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari in May to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ministerial moot in Goa.

The usual pre-visit hype centred on the question of any meeting between Mr. Bilawal and Indian counterpart S. Jaishankar. But both sides did not show any desire for such a meeting. Instead, the two leaders in their official speeches at the ministerial huddle, targeted each other’s countries through innuendoes and pointed jargon.

Mr. Bilawal’s choice of words, especially urging the participants not to let terrorism hinder political relations, irked many in India. Mr. Jaishankar in his address to the SCO meeting underscored the importance of stopping the issue of cross-border terrorism.

Thus, Mr. Bilawal’s trip, which was the first by a Pakistani foreign minister to India in almost 12 years, failed to repair the strained ties which remained frozen over the Kashmir issue.

Pakistan downgraded its diplomatic relations with India by expelling its envoy in Islamabad and stopped trade ties following New Delhi’s decision to revoke the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019 after abrogating Article 370 of the Constitution.

In December, Pakistan’s current caretaker government and Pakistani political leaders also reacted sharply to India’s Supreme Court upholding the Indian government’s decision to abrogate Article 370 of the Constitution.

As the year 2023 fades into history, it leaves a feeble ray of hope that changes may come in the India-Pakistan equation due to the changing regional situation and domestic compulsions.

Afghanistan gamble

Pakistan has lately found itself in an enviable position due to the floundering of its gamble in Afghanistan. The Taliban takeover has badly backfired, as the rulers in Kabul have refused to break ties with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan militants, who are responsible for the endless bloodbath in the country, forcing Islamabad to recalibrate its stance and options.

The immediate result has been the issuance of marching orders for hundreds and thousands of Afghans living illegally. So far, more than 400,000 have been expelled. The orders have not been reversed despite protests and threats by the Taliban regime in neighbouring Afghanistan.

Second, elections are slated to take place on February 8 next year, and former three-time premier Nawaz Sharif, who returned from the UK after a four-year self-exile, is likely to make a record fourth-time ascendancy to power.

Explained | Why is Pakistan deporting Afghan migrants and refugees?

Nawaz Sharif’s rise

As a prelude to his rise to power, 73-year-old Sharif has been acquitted in all corruption cases and enjoys the protocols of a prime minister-designate.

According to analysts, Mr. Sharif is considered an ardent advocate of having good ties with all neighbours, especially India. He made his intention clear while addressing his party leaders in Lahore on December 7, when he said that repairing diplomatic ties with neighbouring nations, including India, Afghanistan, and Iran, was on the agenda of his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party.

“How can you achieve global status when your neighbours are upset with you?” he asked.

Mr. Sharif, who had opposed the Kargil war of 1999 and was later ousted by then-military chief Pervez Musharraf because he was against this “misadventure,” said that he was right to oppose it.

“Time has proved us right as far as the Kargil episode is concerned,” he said, which may have been well received by his audience in India.

Mr. Sharif talking about his successes during his previous tenures also included improvement in the ties with India and sought endorsement of his policy towards India by posing a question: “During whose tenures did two Indian Prime Ministers visit Pakistan? First Atal Bihari Vajpayee and later Narendra Modi.” After his Lahore address, the leading Dawn newspaper quoted a political observer saying Sharif has a record of improving ties with India.

“Improving ties with India has always remained a point of conflict between Nawaz and the establishment in the past. Whenever Nawaz Sharif came to power, he tried to shake hands with India against the wishes of the powers that be,” the paper quoted the expert without identifying him.

He enjoys good relations with Prime Minister Narendra Modi who, like him, is in a race to gain power for another term in the next year’s elections. Their presence on the two countries’ national scenes may help ease bilateral tension.

Pakistan would also like to keep its eastern front quiet to focus on the Taliban threat. Caretaker foreign minister Jalil Abbas Gilani also referred to this point during a press conference after the Indian Supreme Court judgment on Kashmir status. When asked about the decision’s impact on the security situation on the Line of Control, he said that Pakistan would like to maintain peace on the LoC.

While Mr. Sharif’s return is smooth, former cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan is struggling in jail to remain relevant in politics. He has alleged that his party members were targeted, arrested and stopped from filing nomination papers for the February 8 elections despite assurances from the top poll body and the judiciary.

Mr. Khan, who was granted bail in the Cipher case, will remain in jail as he is convicted in the Toshakhana corruption case.

Economy troubles

On the economic front, cash-strapped Pakistan’s economy has been in a free-fall mode for the last many years, bringing untold pressure on the poor masses in the form of unchecked inflation.

Pakistan’s shaken economy has compelled it to approach several nations seeking fiscal help in the form of loans. A loan package from the International Monetary Fund, approved in July, helped Pakistan avert a sovereign debt default. Under the $3 billion standby arrangement (SBA), Pakistan received ₹1.2 billion from the IMF as the first tranche in July.

Pakistan has also been facing a rise in violence in the wake of the Taliban seizing power in Afghanistan in August 2021. Throughout this year, terrorists and separatists have been targeting security forces across Pakistan.

The outgoing year saw the rise of a new militant outfit – Tehrik-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP), a newly formed militant group that is an affiliate of the banned TTP. The group carried out multiple attacks targeting security forces including one of the worst terror attacks targeting the military in recent years that killed 23 soldiers in the restive Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province in December’s second week.

On November 4, the TJP militants attacked the Pakistan Air Force’s Mianwali Training Air Base, some 300 km from Lahore, damaging three grounded aircraft. A day earlier 17 soldiers were killed in three separate terror strikes in the country.

Pakistan’s establishment has said it will fight back till the menace of terrorism is eliminated.

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