Tag: Justin Trudeau

The potential economic and trade fallout of strained Indo-Candian diplomatic relations | Explained

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File photo:- Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, left, walks past Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as they take part in a wreath-laying ceremony at Raj Ghat, Mahatma Gandhi’s cremation site, during the G20 Summit in New Delhi, on September 10, 2023.
| Photo Credit: Sean Kilpatrick

The story so far: The current strain in diplomatic relations between Canada and India has raised concerns about the impact spiralling onto commercial and economic spheres of cooperation. Negotiations towards the Early Progress Trade Agreement (EPTA), which was to serve as an early transitional step towards the larger Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) now stand “paused.” This was widely expected to be sealed in a trade mission that was expected to arrive in India this October — now cancelled. Further concerns relate to the longer-term impact on the larger commercial and economic sphere should relations further deteriorate.

How significant is the trade relationship between the two countries?  

As per the Ministry of Commerce’s TradeStat database, in FY 2022-23, Canada was India’s 35th largest trading partner overall.

Further, as put forth in an earlier joint statement following the sixth Ministerial Dialogue on Trade & Investment (MDTI) in Ottawa in May, Canada-India bilateral trade in goods reached C$12 billion in 2022, growing 57% on a year-over-year basis; of this, the bilateral services trade contributed C8.9 billion to the overall figure.

According to Mohit Singla, Chairman at the Trade Promotion Council of India (TPCI) the trade between the countries is “pretty balanced.” He elaborates that Canada is ranked 14th in imports globally (with a share of 2.3%), but is 32nd in India’s export markets, with a share of 0.9%, currently exhibiting “low potential.” Having said that, he adds that the past two years have seen a sudden upsurge in exports from India at a CAGR of 32%. Other than mineral fuels, categories that have shown strong CAGR in this period include iron and steel, electrical machinery, rubber, nuclear reactors, apparel, pearls, and furniture and plastics, Mr. Singla says.

“This shows a strong surge in confidence by Canadian companies when it comes to sourcing from India across a wide range of categories. Clearly, the momentum has been building as compared to the pre-2020 period, when the overall export CAGR (2013-20) from India to Canada was just around 4%,” said Mr Singla.

From the Canadian perspective, India is a “priority market.” It was the North American country’s 10th largest trading partner. Global Canada (the international diplomacy and affairs department) has also said that “India will be a key partner as Canada strengthens its economic links to the Indo-Pacific under a new, comprehensive strategy for the region.”

How will this impact trade relations? 

India imported merchandise worth approximately U.S.$4.05 billion in FY 2022-23 from Canada and exported about U.S.$4.11 billion worth of goods — indicating a largely balanced trade. India’s primary export items include coal, coke and briquettes, fertilisers, iron and steel, and lentils. On the other hand, India’s major items of export are pharmaceutical products, iron and steel products, organic chemicals and marine products, along with apparel and textiles of varied forms and variants.

The CEPA, which now stands “paused,” was to further take care of “trade in goods, trade in services, rules of origin, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, technical barriers to trade and other areas of economic cooperation”.

Mr Singla notes that, from available data, “Equivalent ad valorem tariff for India is high on dairy products, cereals, meat, fish, cocoa, apparel, textiles etc., which would undoubtedly be areas of interest for exporters,” adding that “to that extent, the FTA negotiations would delay possible easing of trade barriers in these sectors.”

On the other hand, as Mr Singla observes, “most of India’s top exports face minimal tariff barriers, with the exception of cereals and apparels, so a delay may not have a substantiative impact on India’s exports to Canada.”  

What about the investment ecosystem? 

As per the National Investment Promotion and Facilitation Agency’s Invest India, Canada is the 18th largest foreign investor in India..

Several Canadian companies have established their presence in India; this is besides the country’s more important pension funds such as the Canadian Pension Fund (or CPP). As reported by news agency Reuters, CPP increased its investment in the Indian markets to about $15 billion in areas such as real estate, renewables and the financial sector at the end of the previous financial year.

Other big pension funds with sizeable exposure to India include Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) — which has investments of about C$8 billion and the Ontario Teacher’s Pension Plan (OTPP) with $3 billion — both until the end of last year. Observers in Canada believe that in the immediate term, their positions might not be at risk. They argue that the tensions could however cause operational inconveniences, as travel may be an issue.

What about education in Canada?  

As per official statistics, Canada has about 1.08 lakh students from India at present. This accounts for more than 37% of its overall international student pool. Canada- based publication The Global and Mailwrote that the international student tuition (fee) is “several times higher than for Canadian students,” adding that it “has become essential to the finances of many postsecondary schools.” Any strain in the relationship between the two countries would not bode well for them.

In an advisory on September 23, the Ministry of External Affairs in India urged Indian nationals and students in Canada to “exercise utmost caution.”

Jeff Nankivell, President and CEO at the think-tank Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada told BNN Bloomberg that the “single greatest economic relationship between the two countries is the inflow of students from India… and if that is diminished, it would have negative implications not just for educational institutions but also for Canadian communities that are hosts to Indian international students.”

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India expels Canadian diplomat amid fallout over alleged assassination

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Hardeep Singh Nijjar, an advocate of Sikh independence from India, was gunned down on 18 June outside a Sikh cultural centre in the Canadian province of British Columbia.

India dismissed allegations that its government was linked to the killing of a Sikh activist in Canada as “absurd” on Tuesday, expelling a senior Canadian diplomat and accusing Canada of interfering in India’s internal affairs.

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It came a day after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau described what he called credible allegations that India was connected to the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, an advocate of Sikh independence from India who was gunned down on 18 June outside a Sikh cultural centre in Surrey, British Columbia, and Canada expelled a top Indian diplomat.

“Any involvement of a foreign government in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil is an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty,” Trudeau told Parliament Monday. “In the strongest possible terms, I continue to urge the government of India to cooperate with Canada to get to the bottom of this matter.”

The duelling expulsions come as relations between Canada and India are tense. Trade talks have been derailed and Canada just cancelled a trade mission to India that was planned for the fall.

In its statement announcing the expulsion, India’s Ministry of External Affairs wrote that “the decision reflects Government of India’s growing concern at the interference of Canadian diplomats in our internal matters and their involvement in anti-India activities.”

Nijjar was organising an unofficial referendum in India for an independent Sikh nation at the time of his death. Indian authorities announced a cash reward last year for information leading to Nijjar’s arrest, accusing him of involvement in an alleged attack on a Hindu priest in India.

India has repeatedly accused Canada of supporting the Sikh independence, or Khalistan, movement, which is banned in India but has support in countries like Canada and the UK with sizable Sikh diaspora populations.

In March, the Modi government summoned the Canadian High Commissioner in New Delhi to complain about Sikh independence protests in Canada. In 2020, India’s foreign ministry also summoned the top diplomat over comments made by Trudeau about an agricultural protest movement associated with the state of Punjab, where many Sikhs live.

Canada has a Sikh population of more than 770,000, or about 2% of its total population.

Trudeau told Parliament that he brought up Nijjar’s slaying with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G20 meeting in New Delhi last week. He said he told Modi that any Indian government involvement would be unacceptable and that he asked for cooperation in the investigation.

India’s foreign ministry dismissed the allegation as “absurd and motivated.”

“Such unsubstantiated allegations seek to shift the focus from Khalistani terrorists and extremists, who have been provided shelter in Canada and continue to threaten India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” it wrote in a statement issued earlier Tuesday.

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At the G20 meeting, Modi expressed “strong concerns” over Canada’s handling of the Punjabi independence movement among the overseas Sikhs during a meeting with Trudeau at the G20, the statement added.

The statement called on Canada to work with India on what New Delhi said is a threat to the Canadian Indian diaspora and described the Sikh movement as “promoting secessionism and inciting violence” against Indian diplomats. Earlier this year, supporters of the Khalistan movement vandalised Indian consulates in London and San Francisco.

Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly said Canada had expelled a top Indian diplomat, whom she identified as the head of Indian intelligence in Canada.

“If proven true this would be a great violation of our sovereignty and of the most basic rule of how countries deal with each other,” Joly said. “As a consequence, we have expelled a top Indian diplomat.”

Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Canada’s national security adviser and the head of Canada’s spy service have travelled to India to meet their counterparts and to confront the Indian intelligence agencies with the allegations.

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He called it an active homicide investigation led by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.

Joly said Trudeau also raised the matter with US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

“We are deeply concerned about the allegations referenced by Prime Minister Trudeau,” White House National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson. “We remain in regular contact with our Canadian partners. It is critical that Canada’s investigation proceed and the perpetrators be brought to justice.”

Joly also said she would raise the issue with her peers in the G7 on Monday evening in New York City ahead of the United Nations General Assembly.

Canadian opposition New Democrat leader Jagmeet Singh, who is himself Sikh, called it outrageous and shocking. Singh said he grew up hearing stories that challenging India’s record on human rights might prevent you from getting a visa to travel there.

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“But to hear the prime minister of Canada corroborate a potential link between a murder of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil by a foreign government is something I could never have imagined,” Singh said.

The World Sikh Organization of Canada called Nijjar an outspoken supporter of Khalistan who “often led peaceful protests against the violation of human rights actively taking place in India and in support of Khalistan.”

“Nijjar had publicly spoken of the threat to his life for months and said that he was targeted by Indian intelligence agencies,” the statement said.

Nijjar’s New York-based lawyer, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, has said Nijjar was warned by Canadian intelligence officials about being targeted for assassination by “mercenaries” before he was gunned down.

India’s main opposition party issued a statement backing Modi’s position. The Congress Party wrote that “the country’s interests and concerns must be kept paramount at all times” and that the fight against terrorism has to be uncompromising, especially when it threatens the nation’s sovereignty.

Indian authorities have targeted Sikh separatism since the 1980s, when an armed insurgency for an independent Sikh state took off in Punjab state.

In 1984, Indian forces stormed the Golden Temple in the state’s Amritsar city to flush out Sikh separatists, who had taken refuge there. The controversial operation killed around 400, according to official figures, although Sikh groups estimate the toll to be higher.

The prime minister who ordered the raid, Indira Gandhi, was killed afterwards by two of her bodyguards, who were Sikh. Her death triggered a series of anti-Sikh riots, in which Hindu mobs went from house to house across northern India, pulling Sikhs from their homes, hacking many to death and burning others alive.

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CBC #TwitterFiles? The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation tried to get Twitter to censor critics (video)

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This isn’t about an official ‘Twitter Files’ report, but it is very similar. Rebel News, a conservative-leaning, pro-free-expression news platform in Canada has obtained documents showing how the CBC used its money and cozy relationships with the Canadian government to try to force Twitter to censor its critics.

You will recall that Elon Musk labelled the CBC as 69% government funded (heh)—so that would be public money that they were threatening to withhold.

Seriously, the report is only part of the show and is worth watching in its entirety:

The thread also posts many of the documents:

Indeed, Twitter Files veteran Matt Taibbi lent a helping hand:

The reactions were swift:

Heh.

We aren’t surprised, either, but it is nice to have proof.

The Canadian Constitution says ‘Everyone has the following fundamental freedoms: freedom of thought, belief, opinion and expression, including freedom of the press and other media of communication.’ That sounds good enough but, in practice, their conception of freedom of expression is pinched compared to America’s.

We concur.

They mentioned about five blanked out pages. I wonder if Twitter has a copy of them on their hard drive?

Notice also, there are also the constant calls on Twitter to censor itself, because government regulation would be worse. This is a common tactic for imposing censorship when the government might not get away with doing it directly. For instance, the Motion Picture Association of America didn’t want to institute a ratings system for American movies, but explicitly cited the fear that the government would try to regulate them as the reason why they instituted one. The same can be said for the Entertainment Software Ratings Board or ESRB which rates video games and the Comics Code Authority which stifled creativity in comic books for years. The latter contained absolute prohibitions that lasted for decades which included rules like:

Crimes shall never be presented in such a way as to create sympathy for the criminal, to promote distrust of the forces of law and justice, or to inspire others with a desire to imitate criminals.

Policemen, judges, Government officials and respected institutions shall never be presented in such a way as to create disrespect for established authority.

Special precautions to avoid references to physical afflictions or deformities shall be taken.

Divorce shall not be treated humorously nor represented as desirable.

One might feel that these different ratings boards and even the content restrictions slapped on comic books are a good idea, but they should never be adopted facing down the barrel of government regulation. They should be adopted freely, with at most social and economic pressure from parents, not the government.

Further, these tactics are insidious. One might say, for instance, “if you are a game company, why not just fight any regulations?” The answer is that it costs money to have that fight, so even assuming they would win, they would be out the costs associated with litigation—and that assumes they would win. The Supreme Court has not always been very supportive of free speech in modern forms of communication. So, yes, self-regulation might be better, except when we consider the damage done to freedom of expression.

It’s also an answer to the David Frenchs of the world who pretend all this social media censorship we have seen in the last few years is just private action. Very often it is actually the product of government pressure.

Finally, readers with long memories will remember the name Ezra Levant from his own struggles with Canadian censorship:

The CBC almost sounds disappointed.

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