Tag: China

Climate action or distraction? Sweeping COP pledges won’t touch fossil fuel use

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — A torrent of pollution-slashing pledges from governments and major oil companies sparked cries of “greenwashing” on Saturday, even before world leaders had boarded their flights home from this year’s global climate conference.  

After leaders wrapped two days of speeches filled with high-flying rhetoric and impassioned pleas for action, the Emirati presidency of the COP28 climate talks unleashed a series of initiatives aimed at cleaning up the world’s energy sector, the largest source of planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions. 

The announcement, made at an hours-long event Saturday afternoon featuring U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, contained two main planks — a pledge by oil and gas companies to reduce emissions, and a commitment by 118 countries to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity and double energy savings efforts. 

It was, on its face, an impressive and ambitious reveal. 

COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber, the oil executive helming the talks, crowed that the package “aligns more countries and companies around the North Star of keeping 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach than ever before,” referring to the Paris Agreement target for limiting global warming. 

But many climate-vulnerable countries and non-government groups instantly cast an arched eyebrow toward the whole endeavor.

“The rapid acceleration of clean energy is needed, and we’ve called for the tripling of renewables. But it is only half the solution,” said Tina Stege, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands. “The pledge can’t greenwash countries that are simultaneously expanding fossil fuel production.” 

Carroll Muffett, president of the nonprofit Center for International Environmental Law, said: “The only way to ‘decarbonize’ carbon-based oil and gas is to stop producing it. … Anything short of this is just more industry greenwash.”

The divided reaction illustrates the fine line negotiators are trying to walk. The European Union has campaigned for months to win converts to the pledge on renewables and energy efficiency the U.S. and others signed up to on Saturday, even offering €2.3 billion to help. And the COP28 presidency has been on board. 

But Brussels, in theory, also wants these efforts to go hand in hand with a fossil fuel phaseout — a tough proposition for countries pulling in millions from the sector. The EU rhetoric often goes slightly beyond the U.S., even though the two allies officially support the end of “unabated” fossil fuel use, language that leaves the door open for continued oil and gas use as long as the emissions are captured — though such technology remains largely unproven.

Von der Leyen was seen trying to thread that needle on Saturday. She omitted fossil fuels altogether from her speech to leaders before slipping in a mention in a press release published hours later: “We are united by our common belief that to respect the 1.5°C goal … we need to phase out fossil fuels.” 

Harris on Saturday said the world “cannot afford to be incremental. We need transformative change and exponential impact.” 

But she did not mention phasing out fossil fuels in her speech, either. The U.S., the world’s top oil producer, has not made the goal a central pillar of its COP28 strategy. 

Flurry of pledges  

The EU and the UAE said 118 countries had signed up to the global energy goals.

The new fossil fuels agreement has been branded the “Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter” and earned the signatures of 50 companies. The COP28 presidency said it had “launched” the deal with Saudi Arabia — the world’s largest oil exporter and one of the main obstacles to progress on international climate action.

Among the signatories was Saudi state energy company, Aramco, the world’s biggest energy firm — and second-biggest company of any sort, by revenue. Other global giants like ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies also signed.

They have committed to eliminate methane emissions by 2030, to end the routine flaring of gas by the same date, and to achieve net-zero emissions from their production operations by 2050. Adnan Amin, CEO of COP28, singled out the fact that, among the 50 firms, 29 are national oil companies.  

“That in itself is highly significant because you have not seen national oil companies so evident in these discussions before,” he told reporters.

The COP28 presidency could not disguise its glee at the flurry of announcements from the opening weekend of the conference.

“It already feels like an awful lot that we have delivered, but I am proud to say that this is just the beginning,” Majid al-Suwaidi, the COP28 director general, told reporters. 

Fred Krupp, president of the U.S.-based Environmental Defense Fund, predicted: “This will be the single most impactful day I’ve seen at any COP in 30 years in terms of slowing the rate of warming.” 

But other observers said the oil and gas commitments did not go far beyond commitments many companies already make. Research firm Zero Carbon Analytics noted the deal is “voluntary and broadly repeats previous pledges.”

Melanie Robinson, global climate program director at the World Resources Institute, said it was “encouraging that some national oil companies have set methane reduction targets for the first time.” 

But she added: “Most global oil and gas companies already have stringent requirements to cut methane emissions. … This charter is proof that voluntary commitments from the oil and gas industry will never foster the level of ambition necessary to tackle the climate crisis.” 

Some critics theorized that the COP28 presidency had deliberately launched the renewables and energy efficiency targets together with the oil and gas pledge. 

The combination, said David Tong, global industry campaign manager at advocacy group Oil Change International, “appears to be a calculated move to distract from the weakness of this industry pledge.”

The charter, he added, “is a trojan horse for Big Oil and Gas greenwash.” 

Beyond voluntary moves 

A push to speed up the phaseout of coal power garnered less attention — with French President Emmanuel Macron separately unveiling a new initiative and the United States joining a growing alliance of countries pledging to zero out coal emissions.

Macron’s “coal transition accelerator” focuses on ending private financing for coal, helping coal-dependent communities and scaling up clean energy. And Washington’s new commitment confirms its path to end all coal-fired power generation unless the emissions are first captured through technology. U.S. use of coal for power generation has already plummeted in the past decade. 

The U.S. pledge will put pressure on China, the world’s largest consumer and producer of coal, as well as countries like Japan, Turkey and Australia to give up on the high-polluting fuel, said Leo Roberts, program lead on fossil fuel transitions at think tank E3G. 

“It’s symbolic, the world’s biggest economy getting behind the shift away from the dirtiest fossil fuel, coal. And it’s sending a signal to … others who haven’t made the same commitment,” he said. 

The U.S. also unveiled new restrictions on methane emissions for its oil and gas sector on Saturday — a central plank of the Biden administration’s climate plans — and several leaders called for greater efforts to curb the potent greenhouse gas in their speeches. 

Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley called for a “global methane agreement” at COP28, warning that voluntary efforts hadn’t worked out. Von der Leyen, meanwhile, urged negotiators to enshrine the renewables and energy efficiency targets in the final summit text. 

Mohamed Adow, director of the think tank Power Shift Africa, warned delegates not to get distracted by nonbinding pledges. 

“We need to remember COP28 is not a trade show and a press conference,” he cautioned. “The talks are why we are here and getting an agreed fossil fuel phaseout date remains the biggest step countries need to take here in Dubai over the remaining days of the summit.”

Sara Schonhardt contributed reporting.



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Facebook shuts thousands of fake Chinese accounts masquerading as Americans

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Someone in China created thousands of fake social media accounts designed to appear to be from Americans and used them to spread polarizing political content in an apparent effort to divide the U.S. ahead of next year’s elections, Meta said Thursday. 

The network of nearly 4,800 fake accounts was attempting to build an audience when it was identified and eliminated by the tech company, which owns Facebook and Instagram. The accounts sported fake photos, names and locations as a way to appear like everyday American Facebook users weighing in on political issues.

Instead of spreading fake content as other networks have done, the accounts were used to reshare posts from X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, that were created by politicians, news outlets and others. The interconnected accounts pulled content from both liberal and conservative sources, an indication that its goal was not to support one side or the other but to exaggerate partisan divisions and further inflame polarization.

The newly identified network shows how America’s foreign adversaries exploit U.S.-based tech platforms to sow discord and distrust, and it hints at the serious threats posed by online disinformation next year, when national elections will occur in the U.S., India, Mexico, Ukraine, Pakistan, Taiwan and other nations.

“These networks still struggle to build audiences, but they’re a warning,” said Ben Nimmo, who leads investigations into inauthentic behavior on Meta’s platforms. “Foreign threat actors are attempting to reach people across the internet ahead of next year’s elections, and we need to remain alert.”

Meta Platforms Inc., based in Menlo Park, California, did not publicly link the Chinese network to the Chinese government, but it did determine the network originated in that country. The content spread by the accounts broadly complements other Chinese government propaganda and disinformation that has sought to inflate partisan and ideological divisions within the U.S.

To appear more like normal Facebook accounts, the network would sometimes post about fashion or pets. Earlier this year, some of the accounts abruptly replaced their American-sounding user names and profile pictures with new ones suggesting they lived in India. The accounts then began spreading pro-Chinese content about Tibet and India, reflecting how fake networks can be redirected to focus on new targets.

Meta often points to its efforts to shut down fake social media networks as evidence of its commitment to protecting election integrity and democracy. But critics say the platform’s focus on fake accounts distracts from its failure to address its responsibility for the misinformation already on its site that has contributed to polarization and distrust.

For instance, Meta will accept paid advertisements on its site to claim the U.S. election in 2020 was rigged or stolen, amplifying the lies of former President Donald Trump and other Republicans whose claims about election irregularities have been repeatedly debunked. Federal and state election officials and Trump’s own attorney general have said there is no credible evidence that the presidential election, which Trump lost to Democrat Joe Biden, was tainted.

When asked about its ad policy, the company said it is focusing on future elections, not ones from the past, and will reject ads that cast unfounded doubt on upcoming contests.

And while Meta has announced a new artificial intelligence policy that will require political ads to bear a disclaimer if they contain AI-generated content, the company has allowed other altered videos that were created using more conventional programs to remain on its platform, including a digitally edited video of Biden that claims he is a pedophile.

“This is a company that cannot be taken seriously and that cannot be trusted,” said Zamaan Qureshi, a policy adviser at the Real Facebook Oversight Board, an organization of civil rights leaders and tech experts who have been critical of Meta’s approach to disinformation and hate speech. “Watch what Meta does, not what they say.” 

Meta executives discussed the network’s activities during a conference call with reporters on Wednesday, the day after the tech giant announced its policies for the upcoming election year — most of which were put in place for prior elections. 

But 2024 poses new challenges, according to experts who study the link between social media and disinformation. Not only will many large countries hold national elections, but the emergence of sophisticated AI programs means it’s easier than ever to create lifelike audio and video that could mislead voters. 

“Platforms still are not taking their role in the public sphere seriously,” said Jennifer Stromer-Galley, a Syracuse University professor who studies digital media. 

Stromer-Galley called Meta’s election plans “modest” but noted it stands in stark contrast to the “Wild West” of X. Since buying the X platform, then called Twitter, Elon Musk has eliminated teams focused on content moderation, welcomed back many users previously banned for hate speech and used the site to spread conspiracy theories.

Democrats and Republicans have called for laws addressing algorithmic recommendations, misinformation, deepfakes and hate speech, but there’s little chance of any significant regulations passing ahead of the 2024 election. That means it will fall to the platforms to voluntarily police themselves.

Meta’s efforts to protect the election so far are “a horrible preview of what we can expect in 2024,” according to Kyle Morse, deputy executive director of the Tech Oversight Project, a nonprofit that supports new federal regulations for social media. “Congress and the administration need to act now to ensure that Meta, TikTok, Google, X, Rumble and other social media platforms are not actively aiding and abetting foreign and domestic actors who are openly undermining our democracy.”

Many of the fake accounts identified by Meta this week also had nearly identical accounts on X, where some of them regularly retweeted Musk’s posts.

Those accounts remain active on X. A message seeking comment from the platform was not returned.

Meta also released a report Wednesday evaluating the risk that foreign adversaries including Iran, China and Russia would use social media to interfere in elections. The report noted that Russia’s recent disinformation efforts have focused not on the U.S. but on its war against Ukraine, using state media propaganda and misinformation in an effort to undermine support for the invaded nation.

Nimmo, Meta’s chief investigator, said turning opinion against Ukraine will likely be the focus of any disinformation Russia seeks to inject into America’s political debate ahead of next year’s election.

“This is important ahead of 2024,” Nimmo said. “As the war continues, we should especially expect to see Russian attempts to target election-related debates and candidates that focus on support for Ukraine.”

(AP)

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The state of the planet in 10 numbers

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This article is part of the Road to COP special report, presented by SQM.

The COP28 climate summit comes at a critical moment for the planet. 

A summer that toppled heat records left a trail of disasters around the globe. The world may be just six years away from breaching the Paris Agreement’s temperature target of 1.5 degrees Celsius, setting the stage for much worse calamities to come. And governments are cutting their greenhouse gas pollution far too slowly to head off the problem — and haven’t coughed up the billions of dollars they promised to help poorer countries cope with the damage.

This year’s summit, which starts on Nov. 30 in Dubai, will conclude the first assessment of what countries have achieved since signing the Paris accord in 2015. 

The forgone conclusion: They’ve made some progress. But not enough. The real question is what they do in response.

To help understand the stakes, here’s a snapshot of the state of the planet — and global climate efforts — in 10 numbers. 

1.3 degrees Celsius

Global warming since the preindustrial era  

Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions have been driving global temperatures skyward since the 19th century, when the industrial revolution and the mass burning of fossil fuels began to affect the Earth’s climate. The world has already warmed by about 1.3 degrees Celsius, or 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit, and most of that warming has occurred since the 1970s. In the last 50 years, research suggests, global temperatures have risen at their fastest rate in at least 2,000 years.  

This past October concluded the Earth’s hottest 12-month span on record, a recent analysis found. And 2023 is virtually certain to be the hottest calendar year ever observed. It’s continuing a string of recent record-breakers — the world’s five hottest years on record have all occurred since 2015. 

Allowing warming to pass 2 degrees Celsius would tip the world into catastrophic changes, scientists have warned, including life-threatening heat extremes, worsening storms and wildfires, crop failures, accelerating sea level rise and existential threats to some coastal communities and small island nations. Eight years ago in Paris, nearly every nation on Earth agreed to strive to keep temperatures well below that threshold, and under a more ambitious 1.5-degree threshold if at all possible. 

But with just fractions of a degree to go, that target is swiftly approaching — and many experts say it’s already all but out of reach.

$4.3 trillion  

Global economic losses from climate disasters since 1970  

Climate-related disasters are worsening as temperatures rise. Heat waves are intensifying, tropical cyclones are strengthening, floods and droughts are growing more severe and wildfires are blazing bigger. Record-setting events struck all over the planet this year, a harbinger of new extremes to come. Scientists say such events will only accelerate as the world warms. 

Nearly 12,000 weather, climate and water-related disasters struck worldwide over the last five decades, the World Meteorological Organization reports. They’ve caused trillions of dollars in damage, and they’ve killed more than 2 million people.  

Ninety percent of these deaths have occurred in developing countries. Compared with wealthier nations, these countries have historically contributed little to the greenhouse gas emissions driving global warming – yet they disproportionately suffer the impacts of climate change.  

4.4 millimeters  

Annual rate of sea level rise

Global sea levels are rapidly rising as the ice sheets melt and the oceans warm and expand. Scientists estimate that they’re now rising by about 4.4 millimeters, or about 0.17 inches, each year – and that rate is accelerating, increasing by about 1 millimeter every decade.

Those sound like small numbers. They’re not.  

The world’s ice sheets and glaciers are losing a whopping 1.2 trillion tons of ice each year. Those losses are also speeding up, accelerating by at least 57 percent since the 1990s. Future sea level rise mainly depends on future ice melt, which depends on future greenhouse gas emissions. With extreme warming, global sea levels will likely rise as much as 3 feet by the end of this century, enough to swamp many coastal communities, threaten freshwater supplies and submerge some small island nations.  

Some places are more vulnerable than others. 

“Low-lying islands in the Pacific are on the frontlines of the fight against sea level rise,” said NASA sea level expert Benjamin Hamlington. “In the U.S., the Southeast and Gulf Coasts are experiencing some of the highest rates of sea level rise in the world and have very high future projections of sea level.”  

But in the long run, he added, “almost every coastline around the world is going to experience sea level rise and will feel impacts.”

Less than 6 years

When the world could breach the 1.5-degree threshold

The world is swiftly running out of time to meet its most ambitious international climate target: keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Humans can emit only another 250 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide and maintain at least even odds of meeting that goal, scientists say. 

That pollution threshold could arrive in as little as six years.

That’s the bottom line from at least two recent studies, one published in June and one in October. Humans are pouring about 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year, with each ton eating into the margin of error.  

The size of that carbon buffer is smaller than previous estimates have suggested, indicating that time is running out even faster than expected.  

“While our research shows it is still physically possible for the world to remain below 1.5C, it’s difficult to see how that will stay the case for long,” said Robin Lamboll, a scientist at Imperial College London and lead author of the most recent study. “Unfortunately, net-zero dates for this target are rapidly approaching, without any sign that we are meeting them.”

43 percent 

How much greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 2030 to hit the temperature target

The world would have to undergo a stark transformation during this decade to have any hope of meeting the Paris Agreement’s ambitious 1.5-degree cap. 

In a nutshell, global greenhouse gas emissions have to fall 43 percent by 2030, and 60 percent by 2035, before reaching net-zero by mid-century, according to a U.N. report published in September on the progress the world has made since signing the Paris Agreement. That would give the world a 50 percent chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees. 

But based on the climate pledges that countries have made to date, greenhouse gas emissions are likely to fall by just 2 percent this decade, according to a U.N. assessment published this month. 

Governments are “taking baby steps to avert the climate crisis,” U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell said in a statement this month. “This means COP28 must be a clear turning point.” 

$1 trillion a year 

Climate funding needs of developing countries

In many ways, U.N. climate summits are all about finance. Cutting industries’ carbon pollution, protecting communities from extreme weather, rebuilding after climate disasters — it all costs money. And developing countries, in particular, don’t have enough of it. 

As financing needs grow, pressure is mounting on richer nations such as the U.S. that have produced the bulk of planet-warming emissions to help developing countries cut their own pollution and adapt to a warmer world. They also face growing calls to pay for the destruction wrought by climate change, known as loss and damage in U.N.-speak. 

But the flow of money from rich to poor countries has slowed. In October, a pledging conference to replenish the U.N.’s Green Climate Fund raised only $9.3 billion, even less than the $10 billion that countries had promised last time. An overdue promise by developed countries to deliver $100 billion a year by 2020 to help developing countries reduce emissions and adapt to rising temperatures was “likely” met last year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said this month, while warning that adaptation finance had fallen by 14 percent in 2021. 

As a result, the gap between what developing countries need and how much money is flowing in their direction is growing. The OECD report said developing countries will need around $1 trillion a year for climate investments by 2025, “rising to roughly $2.4 trillion each year between 2026 and 2030.”

$7 trillion 

Worldwide fossil fuel subsidies in 2022

In stark contrast to the trickle of climate finance, fossil fuel subsidies have surged in recent years. In 2022, total spending on subsidies for oil, natural gas and coal reached a record $7 trillion, the International Monetary Fund said in August. That’s $2 trillion more than in 2020. 

Explicit subsidies — direct government support to reduce energy prices — more than doubled since 2020, to $1.3 trillion. But the majority of subsidies are implicit, representing the fact that governments don’t require fossil fuel companies to pay for the health and environmental damage that their products inflict on society. 

At the same time, countries continue pumping public and private money into fossil fuel production. This month, a U.N. report found that governments plan to produce more than twice the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with the 1.5-degree target. 

66,000 square kilometers

Gross deforestation worldwide in 2022

At the COP26 climate summit two years ago in Glasgow, Scotland, nations committed to halting global deforestation by 2030. A total of 145 countries have signed the Glasgow Forest Declaration, representing more than 90 percent of global forest cover. 

Yet global action is still falling short of that target. The annual Forest Declaration Assessment, produced by a collection of research and civil society organizations, estimated that the world lost 66,000 square kilometers of forest last year, or about 25,000 square miles — a swath of territory slightly larger than West Virginia or Lithuania. Most of that loss came from tropical forests. 

Halting deforestation is a critical component of global climate action. The U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that collective contributions from agriculture, forestry and land use compose as much as 21 percent of global human-caused carbon emissions. Deforestation releases large volumes of carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere, and recent research suggests that carbon losses from tropical forests may have doubled since the early 2000s.  

Almost 1 billion tons

The annual carbon dioxide removal gap 

Given the world’s slow pace in reducing greenhouse gas pollution, scientists say a second approach is essential for slowing the Earth’s warming — removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

The technology for doing this is largely untested at scale, and won’t be cheap.  

A landmark report on carbon dioxide removals led by the University of Oxford earlier this year found that keeping warming to 2 degrees Celsius or less would require countries to collectively remove an additional 0.96 billion tons of CO2-equivalent a year by 2030.

About 2 billion tons are now removed every year, but that is largely achieved through the natural absorption capacity of forests. 

Removing even more carbon will require countries to massively scale up carbon removal technologies, given the limited capacity of forests to absorb more carbon dioxide. 

Carbon removal technologies are in the spotlight at COP28, though some countries and companies want to use them to meet net-zero while continuing to burn fossil fuels. Scientists have been clear that carbon removal cannot be a substitute for steep emissions cuts. 

1,000 gigawatts 

Annual growth in renewable power capacity needed to keep 1.5 degrees in reach  

The shift from fossil fuels to renewables is underway, but the transition is still far too slow to meet the Paris Agreement targets. 

To keep 1.5 degrees within reach, the International Renewable Energy Agency estimates that the world needs to add 1,000 gigawatts in renewable energy capacity every year through 2030. By comparison, the United States’ entire utility-scale electricity-generation capacity was about 1,160 gigawatts last year, according to the Department of Energy.

Last year, countries added about 300 gigawatts, according to the agency’s latest World Energy Transitions Outlook published in June. 

That shortfall has prompted the EU and the climate summit’s host nation, the United Arab Emirates, to campaign for nations to sign up to a target to triple the world’s renewable capacity by 2030 at COP28, a goal also supported by the U.S. and China.

“The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable,” International Energy Agency boss Fatih Birol said last month. “It’s not a question of ‘if’, it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ – and the sooner the better for all of us.”

This article is part of the Road to COP special report, presented by SQM. The article is produced with full editorial independence by POLITICO reporters and editors. Learn more about editorial content presented by outside advertisers.



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‘A real blow for the junta’: Myanmar’s ethnic groups launch unprecedented armed resistance

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Fighting in Myanmar between the military junta and an alliance of ethnic armed groups has intensified since late October after an unprecedented offensive in the country’s north exposed the junta’s struggles on the ground. The UN called for all sides to respect international law in a statement on Friday, saying that more than 70 civilians had already been killed and some 200,000 displaced by the upsurge in violence. 

Myanmar’s army, known as the Tatmadaw, has been fighting against simultaneous offensives launched by ethnic armed groups in several regions across the country since late October.

“It’s the biggest challenge that the military junta has had to face since the coup d’état of February 1, 2021,” said Thomas Kean, a specialist on Myanmar at the International Crisis Group, an NGO that monitors global conflicts. 

Fighting erupted over the weekend in Shan, Kachin and Chin states in the country’s north as well as in Rakhine State in the west, where an informal ceasefire had been in place for almost a year until early last week. Armed groups have taken the fight to the Tatmadaw in Kayah State in the country’s east, according to Kean. At least 70 civilians, including children, have been killed since the fighting erupted in earnest on October 27, and more than 90 wounded and more than 200,000 displaced, according to a UN statement released Friday. 

Operation 1027

Dubbed “Operation 1027”, the offensive began on October 27 in northern Shan State on the Chinese border. Three armed groups – the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, the Arakan Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army – have joined forces under the Three Brotherhood Alliance moniker. 

Myanmar’s borderlands are home to dozens of ethnic armed groups that have fought against the military on and off since the country’s independence in 1948. Since the Tatmadaw toppled Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected government in a February 2021 coup, some of these groups have been active in training the People’s Defence Forces that emerged to resist the putsch. 

“Helped by resistance groups formed after the coup, hundreds of experienced and fairly well-armed fighters managed to simultaneously attack key junta sites. They seized several towns and villages in the region, took control of military outposts and cut off important trade routes to China,” Kean said, adding that the attack had been “the junta’s biggest setback in the field for a long time”. 

Read moreMyanmar rebels’ offensive: Junta faces biggest threat since 2021 coup

Officially, the aim of the joint offensive was to crack down on the criminal activities that have proliferated in these borderlands, particularly in the Chinese-speaking region of Kokang. Kokang has been dominated since 2009 by a pro-junta militia that has grown wealthy through drug production and other kinds of illegal trafficking, including sex work and online fraud operations. The Chinese government has increasingly been pressuring governments across Southeast Asia to clamp down on the flourishing cyber-scam industry, in which gangs have held thousands of Chinese nationals captive in crowded compounds and forced them to target people across mainland China and beyond with online scams.

“Since May, Beijing has been asking the Myanmar military to step up control of its border militia, to no avail,” Kean explained. “So the Three Brotherhood Alliance has taken advantage of this junta inaction to launch its attacks under the guise of fighting crime.” It’s a way, he said, for the alliance to carry out its assault without risking a negative reaction from China.

“It was also a way to strike a diplomatic blow against the junta, a traditional ally of Beijing,” said Kyaw Win, director of the UK-based Burma Human Rights Network. Not long after the attack, Beijing had shown “its strong dissatisfaction”, deploring the Chinese casualties in Kokang. 

“And China is supposed to be building a major rail link through Kokang as part of its ‘Belt and Road Initiative’. So it wants stability on its border,” he added. “Now, faced with this offensive, the junta no longer seems able to guarantee it.”

Chain reaction

The Three Brotherhood Alliance’s offensive in the north seems to have set off a chain reaction across the country. “These victories have, in a way, galvanised the country’s armed groups,” Kean said.

On November 6, armed groups announced that they had seized control of Kawlin, a town of 25,000 people in the Sagaing region. The next day, resistance forces said they had taken Khampat, a town in the country’s west. 

“And so the fighting gradually spread, with fronts in several regions,” Win said. “Today, according to figures put forward by the various ethnic groups, the army has lost around a hundred military posts and control of some fifty towns and villages. The ethnic groups have also managed to seize numerous weapons and vehicles.”

The campaign has not gone unanswered. By November 2, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing had promised to launch a counter-attack in the country’s north. “We will take the necessary action to counter acts of terrorism,” he warned, announcing an emergency meeting with his military leaders.

But faced with a war on many fronts, the Tatmadaw seems to be exposing its weaknesses rather than its much-vaunted military might. 

“As has often been the case since the beginning of the civil war, it retaliates with air strikes, but its mobile forces on the ground appear limited and overwhelmed,” Kean said.

The Tatmadaw has been grappling with a shortage of fighters seizing power in February 2021. In an analysis published in May, researcher Ye Myo Hein estimated that “the army currently has around 150,000 personnel, including 70,000 combat soldiers”. According to his estimates, at least 21,000 soldiers have been killed or else deserted or defected.

“What the current situation shows is that the pressure on the Burmese army is stronger than ever,” Win said. “Today, it lacks men and resources. Every day, it loses ground in the countryside and is gradually confined to the big cities like Yangon and Mandalay.”

“The Tatmadaw can now collapse,” he said, calling the international community to action. “The time is now or never to act and restore peace to Burma.” 

A turning point?

Kean was more cautious in his appraisal of the situation.

“It’s true that recent events show that the military is at a critical juncture. Until now, it had never lost so much ground or even entire towns”, he said. “But it has already shown in the past that it is capable of reversing the trend. The question over the next few weeks will be whether or not it will be able to recover the lost territory.”

Before seeing the regime “surrender”, “it is more likely that the army will redouble its efforts to regain the upper hand, and that this will lead to an increase in violence and bombing”, Kean said. “The country risks sinking into an ever more brutal spiral where civilians will pay a heavy price.” 

There is one actor, though, that could turn the tables at any moment: China. 

“Even if Beijing has so far largely let the fighting take its course in Shan State, this may not last,” Kean said. “Beijing has far more influence over events on its border than any other international actor. China can just as easily put pressure on ethnic groups as on the junta to end the fighting and bog down the conflict in a status quo.”

This article has been adapted from the original in French.

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Biden tells Asia-Pacific leaders US ‘not going anywhere’ as it looks to build economic ties

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President Joe Biden on Thursday made America’s case to national leaders and CEOs attending the Asia-Pacific summit that the United States is committed to high standards in trade and to partnerships that will benefit economies across the Pacific.

“We’re not going anywhere,” he declared.

Fresh off his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Biden also told business leaders that the US was “de-risking and diversifying” but not “decoupling.” from Beijing.

But he did not mince words in suggesting the US and friends in the Pacific could offer businesses a better option than China.

He also noted that US economies had invested some $50 billion in fellow Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation economies in 2023, including in clean energy technologies, aviation and cybersecurity.

“This is not all kumbaya but it’s straightforward,” Biden said. “We have real differences with Beijing when it comes to maintaining a fair and level economic playing field and protecting your intellectual property. ”

Biden sought to send a clear message about American leadership as business leaders grapple with the risks of doing businesses in the midst of wars in the Middle East and Europe and a still shaky post-pandemic economy.

He was also spending time on Thursday letting Indo-Pacific leaders know that the US is committed to nurturing economic ties throughout the region.

Biden later posed for the traditional “family photo” with other leaders of APEC, the group that includes 21 economies.

Biden in his remarks to the CEOs sought to highlight his administration’s efforts to strengthen ties with the region. APEC members have invested $1.7 trillion in the US economy, supporting some 2.3 million American jobs.

US companies, in turn, have invested about $1.4 trillion in APEC economies.

Later, during talks with APEC leaders at a working lunch, Biden spoke about efforts funded by his Inflation Reduction Act to improve sustainability, climate change and clean energy infrastructure in the US.

“I encourage everyone around this table to also take strong national actions,” Biden said. “It will take all of us to meet this moment.”

The US hasn’t hosted the annual leaders’ summit — started in 1993 by President Bill Clinton — since 2011. The group met virtually in 2020 and 2021 because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Leaders did gather in Bangkok last year, but Biden skipped the summit because his granddaughter was getting married, and he sent Vice President Kamala Harris in his place.

The annual leaders’ conference brings together heads of nations and other top economic and diplomatic leaders.

Biden told those who gathered Wednesday evening at a welcome party — including Russia’s representative, Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk — that today’s challenges were unlike those faced by previous APEC leaders.

Biden also sought to underscore that he was seeking to responsibly manage the United States’ strained relationship with China one day after he and Xi sat down for more than four hours of talks at bucolic Filoli Estate outside of San Francisco.

“A stable relationship between the world’s two largest economies is not merely good for the two economies but for the world,” Biden said. “A stable relationship. It’s good for everyone.”

Demonstrations in and around APEC continued on Thursday. Hours before leaders were to gather at the Moscone Center for the summit, protesters calling for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war were detained by police after shutting down all traffic over a major commuting bridge heading into San Francisco.

After decades of trade built on the premise of keeping prices low, accessing new markets and maximizing profits, many companies are now finding a vulnerable global economy.

The Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts aren’t helping matters.

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed frailties in their supply chains. Climate change has intensified natural disasters that can close factories.

The Israel-Hamas war and Ukraine’s defense against the Russian invasion have generated new financial risks, and new technologies such as artificial intelligence could change how companies operate and displace workers.

Xi too, met with American business leaders — at a $2,000-per-plate dinner Wednesday evening. It was a rare opportunity for the business leaders to hear directly from the Chinese president as they seek clarification on Beijing’s expanding security rules that could choke foreign investment.

“China is pursuing high-quality development, and the United States is revitalizing its economy,” he said, according to an English language translation.

“There is plenty of room for our cooperation, and we are fully able to help each other succeed and achieve win-win outcomes.”

He signaled that China would send the US new giant pandas, just a week after three from the Smithsonian National Zoo were returned to China, much to the dismay of Americans.

There are only four pandas left in the United States, at the Atlanta Zoo.

Biden and Xi understand that the complicated ties between the two nations have major global impacts. Their meeting Wednesday at a Northern California estate was in part an effort to show the world that while they are global economic competitors, the US and China aren’t rivals seeking conflict.

With his characteristic optimism, Biden sketched a vision of leaders who manage competition “responsibly,” adding, “That’s what the United States wants and what we intend to do.”

Xi, though, was gloomier about the state of the post-pandemic global economy. China’s economy remains in the doldrums, with prices falling due to slack demand from consumers and businesses.

“The global economy is recovering, but its momentum remains sluggish,” Xi said. “Industrial and supply chains are still under the threat of interruption, and protectionism is rising. All these are grave problems.”

White House officials said Biden has been bolstered by signs the US economy is in a stronger position than China’s and that the US was building stronger alliances throughout the Pacific.

Part of that is through the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, announced during a May 2022 trip to Tokyo. It came six years after the US unilaterally withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal that was signed by 12 countries.

The new framework has four major pillars: supply chains, climate, anti-corruption and trade. There won’t be any official trade deals to announce — the “framework” label allows Biden to bypass Congress on any agreements reached with the 13 countries. Work on three of the four pillars had been completed.

While US allies are still are looking to hammer out comprehensive trade agreements with Washington, Biden administration officials are underscoring that IPEF has helped the US and partners take action at a far faster clip than traditional trade deals.

“Most trade negotiations take years to complete,” said Mike Pyle, Biden’s deputy national security adviser for international economics.

“The issues that are at the cutting edge of the global economic conversation, issues like supply chains, clean energy, good government —- we have struck agreements around them in just 18 months, with a full set of IPEF partners.”

(AP)

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Pakistan and China: CPEC’s journey from glittering ambition to virtual stall

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The story so far: Seeking urgent funds to the tune of $65 billion via infrastructure investment, Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar,on October 20, completed a five-day trip to Beijing. He was also attempting to allay China’s demands regarding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the ambitious infrastructure project spearheaded by Beijing from 2015 that has reached an impasse due to disagreements over the Gwadar port in Balochistan.

Meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, Mr. Kakar pledged that Islamabad would ‘not allow anything’ to undermine ties with Beijing, Pakistani publication Dawn reported. Terming the China-Pakistan partnership as ‘made in heaven’, he assured that Islamabad ‘blindly trusted China’ and was committed to CPEC and peace in the region.

Signing over 20 agreements with China, Mr. Kakar aims to boost his cash-starved nation’s coffers as Islamabad heads to another election in January 2024. The inked pacts include speedy development of the Gwadar port and its auxiliaries to facilitate regional connectivity, keeping the Khunjerab border (dividing China’s Southern Xinjiang and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK)‘s Gilgit-Baltistan) open throughout the year, construction of the New Gwadar International Airport, the Pakistan-China Friendship Hospital, a desalination plant and other projects.

Attempting to break the impasse , Mr. Xi sought effective security measures to protect the hundreds of Chinese workers and engineers working on CPEC infrastructure projects from Pakistan-based militant attacks. CPEC, a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is set to receive a lion’s share of the 350-billion-yuan ($47.9 billion) financing windows to be set up by China Development Bank and the Export–Import Bank of China.

The move comes just a month after Beijing refused to further expand cooperation with Islamabad in areas of energy, water management, and climate change under CPEC.

Origins of CPEC & agreements signed

The original idea for bilateral investment in infrastructure projects in Pakistan began in 2001 when China agreed to finance the construction of Gwadar port and the Makran Coastal Highway which connected Gwadar and Karachi. Soon the port became functional and Hong Kong-based China Overseas Ports Holding Company began freight operations from there.

This success gave way to a bigger ‘economic corridor’ project when then Chinese President Li Keqiang visited Islamabad in 2013 and met his counterpart Nawaz Sharif to kickstart China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR)— an initiative to revive the 15th century trade route connecting China to West Asia and Europe via land and sea. Apart from Pakistan, Mr. Li had visited India, Bangladesh and Myanmar to rope them into OBOR.

CPEC routes from Pakistan’s Gwadar port in PoK to China’s Kashgar in Xinjiang district

CPEC — one of OBOR’s largest investments — was formally launched in 2015 during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s two-day state visit to Pakistan. Signing over 50 projects worth $45 billion, China set up the ‘Silk Road Fund’ to invest in CPEC projects planned till 2030. The main project was establishing the corridor connecting Pakistan’s Gwadar port in Balochistan to China’s Kashgar in south-western Xinjiang region.

Apart from this connecting corridor, a number of power projects including the 720MW Karot hydropower project and several special economic zones are to be developed under CPEC. Existing facilities of Thar coal-fired power plants (1980 MW) will also be improved using the $33.79 billion ear-marked in the Silk Road Fund for energy projects. Other power projects to be developed are— imported coal power plants at Port Qasim (1,320MW), Gwadar-Nawabshah natural gas pipeline, wind farm at Jhimpir (260 MW), solar park in Bahawalpur (900 MW), and two Thar coal mining blocks.

File photo: A general view of Gwadar port in Gwadar, Pakistan, October 4, 2017.

File photo: A general view of Gwadar port in Gwadar, Pakistan, October 4, 2017.
| Photo Credit:
Reuters

Short-term projects are the Havelian-Islamabad link of the Karakoram Highway ($930m), Gwadar International Airport ($230m), Gwadar port ($66m), and a fibre optic project ($4m), while existing projects to be upgraded are the 1,681-km-long Peshawar-Lahore-Karachi railway line ($3.7billion) and Lahore Mass Transit system ($1.6 billion).

The Silk Road Fund, which manages the investment, is being financed by a consortium of Chinese banks including China Exim Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and the China Development Bank. The projects themselves are undertaken by various Chinese firms in collaboration with Pakistani companies. For example, United Energy Pakistan Wind Power constructed the Jhimpir wind project with the China Development Bank Corporation financing it.

Teething troubles

The CPEC had teething troubles in 2016 as several projects ground to a halt over confusion on funding, contractor selection, delay in bidding process, differences over tax exemption, and obtaining of no-objection certificates (NOC) from ministries and military for key energy projects.

Gwadar port – one of the key CPEC projects – faced multiple issues, starting with water supply. The Rs. 11.2-billion project to supply, treat and distribute water to the port by connecting the Swad and Shadikaur dams was delayed as the port authorities were unclear if the project’s funding was via a grant, an interest-free loan or a commercial loan from China. This project is currently in its final phase of construction.

Similarly, the Rs.9.9-billion project to upgrade the Pak-China Friendship Hospital had faced a delay in the commissioning of the feasibility report, cost estimation, and supply of equipment for the existing 50 beds. As of date, only one of the six medical blocks with 50 beds each is functional.

300 MW Gwadar coal-fired power plant plan

300 MW Gwadar coal-fired power plant plan

Other projects like the 600 MW Gwadar coal-fired power plant, the Gwadar Smart Port City Master Plan, the 1320 MW coal-fired plant at Port Qasim, and the 1320MW Sahiwal Coal Power Project too ran into financial issues over uncertainty about project funding. Power projects were also faced with additional issues of synchronisation with the National Power Grid, which the National Transmission and Dispatch Company was hesitant to allow. While the Sahiwal and Port Qasim plants became operational between 2017 and 2019, the Gwadar power plant has stalled as Pakistan seeks to use domestic coal as fuel while China has insisted on using imported coal.

Hydropower projects like the Sukki Kinari Project in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Karot project in Punjab and the Kohala Project in PoK ran into issues over slow land acquisition by the respective State governments. All of the above projects are currently under the final phase of construction and are scheduled to be completed by 2024.

These projects are financed by commercial Chinese loans and are insured by the China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure) against non-payment, guaranteed by the Pakistan government. Additionally, Sinosure levies a 7% debt servicing fee, a yearly varying interest, and financing fee, making the entire project a huge economic burden on the debt-ridden nation. Several power and infrastructure experts have argued that the high costs incurred in construction will diminish any gains from increased power production.

Opposition from locals & militants

The biggest thorn in CPEC’s side is the intense protests by locals in Balochistan against the Gwadar port city project. Land acquisition by the China Overseas Ports Holding Company for the port project, which spans 2,90,000 acres, has been difficult in the face of stiff opposition by the local residents. Fearing loss of local livelihoods such as fishing, and resisting the use of unskilled Chinese labour instead of Pakistani locals, Baloch residents have refused to sell land to the Chinese for building the port. Moreover, Gwadar port has been leased to the China Overseas Ports Holding Company by Pakistan government, with Beijing reaping 91% of the profits while Islamabad gains only 9%. This has also led to rise in anti-China sentiments among Baloch locals.

Complicating issues further, the Pakistani government has resorted to grabbing lands from locals, forcing them to resettle elsewhere. This has led to a rise in insurgency in Balochistan led by the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), Baloch Republican Army (BRA), and the Baloch Republican Guards (BRG), which seek independence for the district. These militant groups has carried out several attacks on Pakistani Army officials providing protection to Chinese workers.

Similarly, in Sindh province, locals see CPEC as an attempt by the Punjabi-dominated Pakistan army to infringe on Sindh locals’ land and rights. Insurgent and separatist outfit Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA) too has joined the Balochi insurgents in attacking Chinese workers and Pakistan army, viewing CPEC as an attempt to block local access to the Gwadar and Badin ports.

Local residents and rescue workers gather at the site of bus accident, in Kohistan Kohistan district of Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Wednesday, July 14, 2021. A bus carrying Chinese and Pakistani construction workers on a slippery mountainous road in northwest Pakistan fell into a ravine Wednesday, killing a dozen of people, including Chinese nationals, and dozens were injured, a government official said

Local residents and rescue workers gather at the site of bus accident, in Kohistan Kohistan district of Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Wednesday, July 14, 2021. A bus carrying Chinese and Pakistani construction workers on a slippery mountainous road in northwest Pakistan fell into a ravine Wednesday, killing a dozen of people, including Chinese nationals, and dozens were injured, a government official said

The two Thar coal fields, the Lahore-Karachi highway, the Karachi-Peshawar high speed rail link and the Hyderabad-Multan-Havelian Dry Port have also been hindered by attacks, civilian protests and slow land acquisition.

Recently in August, two militants were killed after they attacked a convoy carrying Chinese workers to Gwadar port. While no Chinese national was hurt in this attack, three Chinese academics and their Pakistani driver were killed in April 2022 by a suicide bomber in Karachi University. Similarly in 2021, five people were killed at a luxury hotel in Quetta hosting the Chinese Ambassador. The attack was claimed by ,Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is active in South Waziristan. In another attack in 2021, 12 people – including nine Chinese workers – were killed in a bomb blast on a bus carrying staff to the Dasu dam site.

India’s opposition to CPEC

Since its inception, India has opposed CPEC as most of its projects run through areas in Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK). Cutting through Gilgit-Baltistan, CPEC projects link Balochistan to China’s Xinjiang region. New Delhi has always maintained that PoK was an integral part of India and has been illegally occupied by Pakistan since 1947.

Moreover, since the Taliban took over power in Afghanistan, they have expressed an interest in joining CPEC — a bid to tap into the mineral-rich Balochistan and also strengthen its ally TTP. India has vehemently opposed this move, stating that “a proposed participation of third countries in so called CPEC projects directly infringes on India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Disagreements between China andPakistan

In November 2017, China and Pakistan differed over one of CPEC’s biggest projects, the $14-billion Diamer Basha Dam, with the project ultimately being cancelled. Islamabad stated that China had imposed harsh conditions for financing the project — total ownership of the construction, and operation and maintenance of the dam along with approval for another operational dam.

Photo of Karakoram Highway in PoK

Photo of Karakoram Highway in PoK

A month later, China stopped funding three road projects — the 210-km Dera Ismail Khan-Zhob Road worth Rs 81 billion, the 110-km Khuzdar-Basima Road worth Rs 19.7 billion, and the 136-km Karakoram Highway worth Rs 8.5 billion — over suspicions of corruption. Though the funds had been cleared by the 6th Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) meeting, China stopped the funding stating that ‘new guidelines’ for the release of the funds would be issued.

In a retaliatorymove, in May 2018, the Pakistan National Assembly’s Standing Committee ordered an inquiry into China Overseas Ports Holding Company (Pakistan) — the lessee of Gwadar port — claiming that it had been operating without valid security clearance. The port construction, already slow due to local resistance, virtually stalled. Chinese authorities tried directly contacting Balochi leaders, snubbing the Pakistan government itself. Defence experts see this subversion as Beijing’s attempt to establish a military or naval base in Gwadar to gain a strategic advantage over India.

China also complicated the Gwadar port issue by insisting on Yuan as a legal tender in the region, though not in rest of Pakistan. This demand was refused twice by the Pakistan Central Bank, which later allowed Yuan to be used for bilateral trade and investment activities.

In 2022, China refused to further expand cooperation with Pakistan in the areas of energy, water management, and climate change under CPEC. According to the minutes of the 11th JCC meeting, this was owing to the “challenges that both the sides are facing in deepening the economic ties.” Moreover, Beijing did not agree to measures proposed by Islamabad in energy, water management, climate change and tourism in Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, PoK and the coastal areas. Beijing also refused to set up a new joint working group on water resources management and climate change and a 500kv transmission line from Hub to Gwadar to link the city to the national grid.

Pakistan caretaker PM Anwaar ul Haq meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on October 19, 2023

Pakistan caretaker PM Anwaar ul Haq meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on October 19, 2023

Beijing also refused several other proposed ventures including a South-North gas pipeline project, an underground gas storage project, a national seismic study for sedimentary areas, joint exploration, development, and marketing of metallic minerals, and a policy framework for coal gasification for fertiliser projects based on Thar coal. On the other hand, Islamabad has conceded to forgo usage of Thar coal in the 300MW Gwadar Power Plant and use imported coal instead, delivering a major blow to its own energy security and ballooning current deficit. It has also promised to ensure timely exchange of U.S. dollars for CPEC power projects to buy necessary fuels.

Impasse and road ahead

With the recent visit to Beijing by caretaker PM Anwaarul Haq Kakar, Islamabad is attempting to restart funding for its key projects. Apart from vowing to keep the Khunjerab border open throughout the year, both sides are yet to find any breakthrough on the issues dragging down the progress of the CPEC. While Mr. Kakar and Mr. Xi reviewed the progress of the New Gwadar International Airport and the Pak-China Friendship Hospital, the development of Gwadar port itself remains unresolved. With Pakistan polity going through churn, China will await a new administration’s arrival next year to revive CPEC again.



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Israel-Hamas war: How is China juggling Israeli economic ties with its pro-Palestine stance

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The story so far: Commenting on Beijing’s stance on the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, on October 24, stated that Tel Aviv had a right to self-defence against Hamas. In a telephone call with his counterpart Eli Cohen, Mr. Wang re-affirmed that every country has a right to self-defence but should abide by international humanitarian law and protect civilians, according to a Bloomberg report.

Previously, Beijing had termed Israel’s actions as “beyond the scope of self-defence,” as Tel Aviv ordered one million residents of northern Gaza to evacuate within 24 hours ahead of its ground assault. Mr. Wang said, “Israel’s actions go beyond the scope of self-defence. It should heed the calls of the international community and avoid collective punishment of the people of Gaza,” in a phone call with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud on October 14.

(FILES) US President Joe Biden (R) and China’s President Xi Jinping (L) meet on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Nusa Dua on the Indonesian resort island of Bali on November 14, 2022.
| Photo Credit:
SAUL LOEB

Beijing’s comment regarding Tel Aviv came before Mr. Wang’s Washington visit where he was set to discuss a summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden. China, Israel’s largest Asian trading partner, has offered to mediate peace talks between Israel and Hamas as the war escalated. As of date, Israel has reportedly killed over 9700 people in Gaza via air and ground strikes since October 7 when Hamas killed over 1400 people in Israel and took 240 residents as hostage.

Through the years, Beijing’s relations with Israel has evolved from recognising it as an independent Jewish state to supporting the establishment of Palestine as part of a two-state solution.

 Historical ties – Military, then diplomatic

 Recognition & boost in arms sale

China was one of the first countries to recognise Israel as an independent sovereign nation following the formation of Israel in 1949. Similarly, Israel too recognised the Communist party-established People’s Republic of China in 1950, a year after the Communist Party defeated the Kuomintang in the Chinese Civil War.

Since then the ties between the two nations remained weak as China aligned with several Arab nations and even supported the Palestinian cause. At the Bandung Conference in 1955, then Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai pledged support for establishing Palestine as an independent nation. Later in the 1960s, members of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) visited China where they were offered military training by Beijing.

Sino-Arab ties strengthened further in the 1970s when several Arab nations and Iran faced were facing armed revolutions and a change in administration to a more dictatorial and military leadership from a democratic western-backed political government. Throughout these revolutions, China supported most Arab military leaderships, both ideologically and by supplying arms.

As China entered the Deng Xiaoping era, Sino-Israeli ties revived in a pragmatic manner. Tapping into China’s ambition to expand its military, in the 1980s, Israel began exporting equipment such as missiles, radars, and navigation systems as well as transferring military technology. These military contracts were promoted by the United States in the last stages of the Cold War (late 1980s to 1991) in a bid to contain the Soviet Union (USSR) and break through Israel’s diplomatic isolation.

Notable military deals include technology transfer of Israel’s Python-3 air-to-air missiles which aided in the development of China’s PL-8 missiles (both ground-to-air and ship-to-air). China also imported the EL/j-7M-2032 planar array radar system which was integrated into its J-7 fighter jets – the Chinese version of the MiG-21.

Diplomacy strengthens, US hinders military ties

Military ties between China and Israel were subject to Western ire during the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, when the PLA used military force to clear student protestors at the Square, killing hundreds and injuring thousands. The U.S. and many European nations condemned the PLA’s aggression, threatening to suspend military technical projects with Beijing, and subsequently banning arms sales to it.

Israeli embassy in Beijing

Israeli embassy in Beijing
| Photo Credit:
Ng Han Guan

By 1992, the military ties transformed into diplomatic ones, with each country formally opening embassies in Tel Aviv and Beijing respectively. As China sought to fill the vacuum created by the fall of USSR in a post-Cold War world, the U.S. viewed its growing global stature as competition to its own. Post-Tiananmen Square, Washington started expressing concerns over Sino-Israeli military pacts, accusing Tel Aviv of transferring sensitive American military technology to China. Throughout the 1990s, China and Israel kept their defence deals under wraps to avoid US scrutiny. However, arms exports from Israel to China remained $28-38 million on average each year, as per Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

In 2000, the U.S. stalled the sale of Israel’s Phalcon airborne early warning and control systems (AEWC) to Beijing, fearing its potential use in an offensive against Taiwan. This soured Sino-Israeli military ties, with Tel Aviv agreeing to pay China $350 million in compensation and strengthening its ties with the U.S. Similarly, in 2005, Washington objected to the upgradation of China’s Harpy drones, bought from Israel, claiming that it contained U.S.-produced subsystems. The deal was eventually cancelled.

Sino-Israel defence deals have been stalled since then.

Sino-Israeli economic ties

Since the establishment of full diplomatic relations in 1992, Israel and China have robust economic trade relations. Bilateral trade was estimated to be $50 million in 1992 and has now rapidly expanded to $17.62 billion in 2022, according to Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). With Benjamin Netanyahu coming to power in 2009 and Xi Jinping in 2013, the two nations strengthened their technological cooperation, pushing massive Chinese investment in Israel.

Israel-China trade 2013-22

Israel-China trade 2013-22

China launched its ambitious infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in 2013 and chose Israel as its biggest investment destination among the Middle Eastern and North Africa (MENA) nations. Between 2005 and 2018, China invested $12.19 billion in construction projects in Israel, according to AEI China Global Investment Tracker. This is despite Israel not formally joining the initiative.

Israeli exports to China

Israeli exports to China

Israeli trade deficit

Israeli trade deficit

China also imports Israeli computers, electronic and optic equipment, minerals and mining materials, chemicals, metals, food and beverages, plastic, rubber, wood and leather, agriculture, forestry and fishing goods. As per INSS, Israel’s exports to China has grown from $2.58 billion in 2013 to $4.5 billion in 2022.

Similarly, Israel too imports many Chinese goods, mainly cars, batteries, electronic equipment, machinery, and consumer products. Its imports from China have increased from $5.64 billion in 2013 to $13.12 billion in 2022, adding $8.62 billion in trade deficit to the Israeli economy. After the European Union ($49.19 billion), and the U.S. ($22.04 billion), China is Israel’s third biggest trading partner – dealing almost entirely in goods and commodities, not services.

China’s stance on Israel-Palestine dispute

Since 1950, Beijing has backed Palestine’s claim for independence, but never commented on Israeli settlements in West Bank. Most recently, at the Belt and Road Forum held in Beijing, Mr. Xi called for a ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, and expressed hope for implementing the two-state solution (establishing Israel and Palestine as independent nations as per UN-drawn borders).

Zhai Jun, left, special envoy of the Chinese government on the Middle East issue, meets with Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister and Special Presidential Representative for the Middle East and Africa Mikhail Bogdanov in Doha, Qatar, Thursday, Oct. 19, 2023

Zhai Jun, left, special envoy of the Chinese government on the Middle East issue, meets with Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister and Special Presidential Representative for the Middle East and Africa Mikhail Bogdanov in Doha, Qatar, Thursday, Oct. 19, 2023

In the aftermath of the October 7 attack by Hamas, most Western leaders condemned the militant group, with state heads visiting Israel. However, China has not condemned Hamas. It sent its Middle East envoy Zhai Jun to Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan — but to neither Israel nor Palestine.

Both Russia and China vetoed the U.S.-led proposal at the UN Security Council calling for UN action in the Israel-Gaza war, asserting Tel Aviv’s right to defend itself and demanding Iran stop exporting arms to militant groups. Beijing vetoed the proposal claiming that it “did not reflect the world’s strongest calls for a ceasefire and help resolve the issue.”

However, China supported an Arab-backed UN proposal that called for “an immediate, durable and sustained humanitarian truce” in Gaza. While the motion passed, fourteen nations including Israel and the U.S. voted against it. China’s actions were severely condemned by Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, who called it a “despicable call for a ceasefire.”

China initially criticised Israel’s actions in Gaza, calling it “beyond the scope of self-defence,” and asserted that “justice has not been done to the Palestinian people.” However, following the Hamas attack, China reaffirmed Tel Aviv’s right to defend itself while highlighting civilian casualties in Gaza and omitting Israeli casualities.

In an interview to news network Al Jazeera, William Figueroa, an assistant professor at the University of Groningen, said that the Chinese playbook in the Middle East often followed the same pattern — an cautious initial stance, calls for peace, condemning violence against civilians and primarily focusing on Palestinian grievances. He added that China’s deep economic ties with oil-rich states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iran has prompted it to take a more pro-Palestine stance.

Uyghurs & the U.S. link to China’s pro-Palestine stance

China’s stance has also been linked to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’ support for China’s treatment of Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang. The vast community’s forced detention in camps has been termed as ‘genocide’ by most Western nations, but this was denied by Mr. Abbas. Terming China’s action in Xinjiang as countering extremism and terrorism, Mr. Abbas condemned interference in Beijing’s internal affairs. Incidentally, the majority of Uyghur Muslims and Palestinian Muslims fall under the Sunni sect of Islam.

Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on June 14, 2023

Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on June 14, 2023

Israel, on the other hand, signed a declaration at the UN Human Rights Council in 2022, expressing “grave concerns about the human rights situation in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region,” but did not term it a genocide.

Another factor fueling China’s stance against Israel is Washington’s steadfast support of Israel, extending to sending troops to counter Hamas. Openly condemning the U.S., China’s state-controlled daily Global Times has accused Washington of “adding fuel to the fire by blindly backing Israel in the ongoing conflict.” Pinning the increasing civilian casualties on the US, Global Times said that the US was “stained with the blood of innocent civilians.”

Beijing, which heads the UN Security Council this month, has called for a closed-door deliberations by its fifteen members next week on the Israel-Hamas war, focusing mainly on Gaza. While Beijing hopes for a ceasefire soon with its involvement in the negotiations, it seems unlikely in the face of Israel’s siege of Gaza.

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Taiwan set to dominate talks as Xi meets Biden in San Francisco

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Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet US counterpart Joe Biden in San Francisco on Wednesday for the two leaders’ first face-to-face meeting following a turbulent 12 months for US-China relations. Taiwan, a long-term source of disagreement between the two nations, is expected to top the agenda.

The two heads of state will meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in the Californian city, their first encounter since a meeting on November 14th 2022, in Bali.  

Positive momentum following the G20 summit was swiftly derailed by various spats that brought relations between the US and China to their lowest level in years.  

The US shot down an alleged Chinese spy balloon over its territory in February 2023, an incursion the US described as “unacceptable”.  

China said US accusations amounted to “information warfare”, and delayed a planned visit to the People’s Republic by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. 

A cumulation of trade tensions and sanctions also contributed to bring relations to their lowest points in decades before a flurry of high-level diplomacy, including Blinken’s eventual trip to Beijing in June, signalled ambitions on both sides to mend ties. 

Wednesday’s meeting is likely being seen as an opportunity to “calm relations, to not inflame things further in context full of difficult and tense and inflamed issues,” says Astrid Nordin, Lau Chair of Chinese International Relations at King’s College London. 

“We’re not trying to decouple from China. What we’re trying to do is change the relationship for the better,” Biden told reporters at the White House on Tuesday, shortly before heading to San Francisco.

Semiconductors, climate agreements, and fentanyl trafficking are all expected to be on the agenda for the talks. “But from Beijing’s perspective, the most important issue in the US-China relationship will be over Taiwan,” Nordin says. 

“Taiwan is critically important in the relationship between China and the USA because of its geostrategic location and its symbolism,” adds Steve Tsang, Director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London.  

Symbolism, geopolitics 

Taiwan will take part in this week’s APEC forum under the name “Chinese Taipei”. While the island’s democratically elected leadership maintains it is an independent country, China claims it as a province of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). 

In the past year and a half, Taiwan has faced increased military pressure from Beijing, raising fears China intends to fulfil its ambition to “unify” Taiwan with the mainland and using force if necessary. 

Read moreMore than 100 Chinese warplanes and nine navy ships spotted around Taiwan

 

At the same time, the US has bolstered its support for Taiwan with a high-profile visit from US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August 2022 and by increasing its capacity to buy US weapons. 

Taiwan matters to the US as a “symbolic issue of providing support for a democratic ally in the face of potential hostile invasion”, says Nordin. “A US president would not want to be the person who stands aside and just looks on if that happens.” 

Biden has been more outspoken than his predecessor in his rhetorical support for Taiwan and its self-governance. 

The island is also geographically significant for the US with a strategically advantageous position off the Pacific coast of China, linking in alliances with nearby Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.  

For China, the stakes are also high. Reintegration of Taiwan into the PRC is a question of national identity, unity and security. 

Historically, China considers Taiwan not only part of China but also part of its “First Island Chain” – a first line of defence off the Pacific coast, “the taking of which will not only secure China’s Eastern Seaboard but also enable the Chinese navy and air force to project power into the Pacific”, says Tsang. 

In recent years, “Xi Jinping has been more explicit than previous generations of leadership that he does not want to leave the status quo [in Taiwan] for the next generation,” says Nordin. 

‘Getting back on a normal course’

For decades, China has shown little appetite for military intervention in Taiwan, instead proposing that it be integrated into the PRC under a “one country, two systems” formula, that was used for Hong Kong. 

The US has also found ways to appease both China and Taiwan: it recognises Beijing as the government of China and doesn’t have diplomatic relations with Taiwan under the “One China” policy.  

At the same time it has a “robust unofficial relationship” with Taiwan and has pledged military support under the Taiwan Relations Act were the island’s security to come under threat.   

As such, forced unity with Taiwan “can only happen if China can either deter the US from interfering or defeat the US forces sent to help Taiwan defend itself”, says Tsang.  

Either scenario would mean that China had “devastated the US’s credibility in the Asian Pacific”, he adds.  

So, what hope for compromise when the two leaders meet on Wednesday? 

“Neither party will yield to the other on Taiwan,” Tsang says. “The best any US president or Chinese supreme leader can do over Taiwan is to ease tensions by making noises that enable the other side to turn the temperature down.”   

But the fact that the leaders are meeting at all is a sign of political will to reduce the heat after a tumultuous 12 months.  

“There’s been a lot of work going on over summer in preparation for this meeting and the fact that it is now culminating in face-to-face talks might be a sign that there has been some stabilisation in the US-China relationship” adds Nordin.  

Asked what he hoped to achieve at the meeting, Biden said he wanted “to get back on a normal course of corresponding; being able to pick up the phone and talk to one another if there’s a crisis; being able to make sure our military still have contact with one another”.

Despite positive noises, any agreement on a way forward in Taiwan is, Nordin says, “highly unlikely”.  

“But what there might be is a de-escalation in rhetoric and scope for both nudging closer to a stabilisation of the status quo. The absence of worsening, perhaps, is something to aspire to in this scenario.” 

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Why oil is down since the Hamas-Israel conflict started and whether that can last

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Former Chinese PM Li Keqiang dies of heart attack

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Former Premier Li Keqiang, China’s top economic official for a decade, died Friday of a heart attack. He was 68.

Li was China’s No. 2 leader from 2013-23 and an advocate for private business but was left with little authority after President Xi Jinping made himself the most powerful Chinese leader in decades and tightened control over the economy and society.

CCTV said Li had been resting in Shanghai recently and had a heart attack on Thursday. He died at 12:10 am Friday.

Li, an English-speaking economist, was considered a contender to succeed then-Communist Party leader Hu Jintao in 2013 but was passed over in favor of Xi. Reversing the Hu era’s consensus-oriented leadership, Xi centralised powers in his own hands, leaving Li and others on the party’s ruling seven-member Standing Committee with little influence.

As the top economic official, Li promised to improve conditions for entrepreneurs who generate jobs and wealth. But the ruling party under Xi increased the dominance of state industry and tightened control over tech and other industries. Foreign companies said they felt unwelcome after Xi and other leaders called for economic self-reliance, expanded an anti-spying law and raided offices of consulting firms.

Li was dropped from the Standing Committee at a party congress in October 2022 despite being two years below the informal retirement age of 70.

The same day, Xi awarded himself a third five-year term as party leader, discarding a tradition under which his predecessors stepped down after 10 years. Xi filled the top party ranks with loyalists, ending the era of consensus leadership and possibly making himself leader for life. The No. 2 slot was filled by Li Qiang, the party secretary for Shanghai, who lacked Li Keqiang’s national-level experience and later told reporters that his job was to do whatever Xi decided.

Known for easygoing style

Li Keqiang, a former vice premier, took office in 2013 as the ruling party faced growing warnings the construction and export booms that propelled the previous decade’s double-digit growth were running out of steam.

Government advisers argued Beijing had to promote growth based on domestic consumption and service industries. That would require opening more state-dominated industries and forcing state banks to lend more to entrepreneurs. Li’s predecessor, Wen Jiabao, apologized at a March 2012 news conference for not moving fast enough.

In a 2010 speech, Li acknowledged challenges including too much reliance on investment to drive economic growth, weak consumer spending and a wealth gap between prosperous eastern cities and the poor countryside, home to 800 million people.


 

Li was seen as a possible candidate to revive then-supreme leader Deng Xiaoping’s market-oriented reforms of the 1980s that started China’s boom. But he was known for an easygoing style, not the hard-driving impatience of Zhu Rongji, the premier in 1998-2003 who ignited the construction and export booms by forcing painful reforms that cut millions of jobs from state industry.

Li was believed to have supported the “China 2030” report released by the World Bank and a Cabinet research body in 2012 that called for dramatic changes to reduce the dominance of state industry and rely more on market forces.

Support for economic reforms

In his first annual policy address, Li in 2014 was praised for promising to pursue market-oriented reform, cut government waste, clean up air pollution and root out pervasive corruption that was undermining public faith in the ruling party.

Xi took away Li’s decision-making powers on economic matters by appointing himself to head a party commission overseeing reform.

Xi’s government pursued the anti-graft drive, imprisoning hundreds of officials including former Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang. But party leaders were ambivalent about the economy. They failed to follow through on a promised list of dozens of market-oriented changes. They increased the dominance of state-owned banks and energy and other companies.

Xi’s government opened some industries including electric car manufacturing to private and foreign competition. But it built up state-owned “national champions” and encouraged Chinese companies to use domestic suppliers instead of imports.

Borrowing by companies, households and local governments increased, pushing up debt that economists warned already was dangerously high.

Beijing finally tightened controls in 2020 on debt in real estate, one of China’s biggest industries. That triggered a collapse in economic growth, which fell to 3% in 2022, the second-lowest in three decades.

Li showed his political skills but little zeal for reform as governor and later party secretary of populous Henan province in central China in 1998-2004.

Reputation for bad luck

Li earned the nickname “Three Fires Li” and a reputation for bad luck after three fatal fires struck Henan while he was there. A Christmas Day blaze at a nightclub in 2000 killed 309 people. Other officials were punished but Li emerged unscathed.

Meanwhile, provincial leaders were trying to suppress information about the spread of AIDS by a blood-buying industry in Henan. Li’s reputation for bad luck held as China suffered a series of deadly disasters during his term.

Days after he took office, a landslide on March 29, 2013, killed at least 66 miners at a gold mine in Tibet and left 17 others missing and presumed dead. In the eastern port of Tianjin, a warehouse holding chemicals exploded August 12, 2015, killing at least 116 people.

A China Eastern Airlines jetliner plunged into the ground on March 22, 2022, killing all 132 people aboard. Authorities have yet to announce a possible cause.

Li oversaw China’s response to COVID-19, the first cases of which were detected in the central city of Wuhan. Then-unprecedented controls were imposed, shutting down most international travel for three years and access to major cities for weeks at a time.

PM during pandemic

In one of his last major official acts, Li led a Cabinet meeting that announced November 11, 2022, that anti-virus controls would be relaxed to reduce disruption after the economy shrank by 2.6% in the second quarter of the year. Two weeks later, the government announced most travel and business restrictions would end the following month.

Li was born July 1, 1955, in the eastern province of Anhui and by 1976 was ruling party secretary of a commune there.

Studying law at Peking University, he was the campus secretary of the ruling party’s Communist Youth League, an organization that launched the political careers of former party leaders Hu Jintao and Hu Yaobang. He was a member of the League’s Standing Committee, a sign he was seen as future leadership material.

After serving in a series of party posts, Li received his Ph.D. in economics in 1994 from Peking University.

Following Henan, Li served as party secretary for Liaoning province in the northeast as part of a rotation through provincial posts and at ministries in Beijing that was meant to prepare leaders. He joined the party Central Committee in 2007.

(AP)

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