Tag: forestry

The state of the planet in 10 numbers

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This article is part of the Road to COP special report, presented by SQM.

The COP28 climate summit comes at a critical moment for the planet. 

A summer that toppled heat records left a trail of disasters around the globe. The world may be just six years away from breaching the Paris Agreement’s temperature target of 1.5 degrees Celsius, setting the stage for much worse calamities to come. And governments are cutting their greenhouse gas pollution far too slowly to head off the problem — and haven’t coughed up the billions of dollars they promised to help poorer countries cope with the damage.

This year’s summit, which starts on Nov. 30 in Dubai, will conclude the first assessment of what countries have achieved since signing the Paris accord in 2015. 

The forgone conclusion: They’ve made some progress. But not enough. The real question is what they do in response.

To help understand the stakes, here’s a snapshot of the state of the planet — and global climate efforts — in 10 numbers. 

1.3 degrees Celsius

Global warming since the preindustrial era  

Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions have been driving global temperatures skyward since the 19th century, when the industrial revolution and the mass burning of fossil fuels began to affect the Earth’s climate. The world has already warmed by about 1.3 degrees Celsius, or 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit, and most of that warming has occurred since the 1970s. In the last 50 years, research suggests, global temperatures have risen at their fastest rate in at least 2,000 years.  

This past October concluded the Earth’s hottest 12-month span on record, a recent analysis found. And 2023 is virtually certain to be the hottest calendar year ever observed. It’s continuing a string of recent record-breakers — the world’s five hottest years on record have all occurred since 2015. 

Allowing warming to pass 2 degrees Celsius would tip the world into catastrophic changes, scientists have warned, including life-threatening heat extremes, worsening storms and wildfires, crop failures, accelerating sea level rise and existential threats to some coastal communities and small island nations. Eight years ago in Paris, nearly every nation on Earth agreed to strive to keep temperatures well below that threshold, and under a more ambitious 1.5-degree threshold if at all possible. 

But with just fractions of a degree to go, that target is swiftly approaching — and many experts say it’s already all but out of reach.

$4.3 trillion  

Global economic losses from climate disasters since 1970  

Climate-related disasters are worsening as temperatures rise. Heat waves are intensifying, tropical cyclones are strengthening, floods and droughts are growing more severe and wildfires are blazing bigger. Record-setting events struck all over the planet this year, a harbinger of new extremes to come. Scientists say such events will only accelerate as the world warms. 

Nearly 12,000 weather, climate and water-related disasters struck worldwide over the last five decades, the World Meteorological Organization reports. They’ve caused trillions of dollars in damage, and they’ve killed more than 2 million people.  

Ninety percent of these deaths have occurred in developing countries. Compared with wealthier nations, these countries have historically contributed little to the greenhouse gas emissions driving global warming – yet they disproportionately suffer the impacts of climate change.  

4.4 millimeters  

Annual rate of sea level rise

Global sea levels are rapidly rising as the ice sheets melt and the oceans warm and expand. Scientists estimate that they’re now rising by about 4.4 millimeters, or about 0.17 inches, each year – and that rate is accelerating, increasing by about 1 millimeter every decade.

Those sound like small numbers. They’re not.  

The world’s ice sheets and glaciers are losing a whopping 1.2 trillion tons of ice each year. Those losses are also speeding up, accelerating by at least 57 percent since the 1990s. Future sea level rise mainly depends on future ice melt, which depends on future greenhouse gas emissions. With extreme warming, global sea levels will likely rise as much as 3 feet by the end of this century, enough to swamp many coastal communities, threaten freshwater supplies and submerge some small island nations.  

Some places are more vulnerable than others. 

“Low-lying islands in the Pacific are on the frontlines of the fight against sea level rise,” said NASA sea level expert Benjamin Hamlington. “In the U.S., the Southeast and Gulf Coasts are experiencing some of the highest rates of sea level rise in the world and have very high future projections of sea level.”  

But in the long run, he added, “almost every coastline around the world is going to experience sea level rise and will feel impacts.”

Less than 6 years

When the world could breach the 1.5-degree threshold

The world is swiftly running out of time to meet its most ambitious international climate target: keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Humans can emit only another 250 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide and maintain at least even odds of meeting that goal, scientists say. 

That pollution threshold could arrive in as little as six years.

That’s the bottom line from at least two recent studies, one published in June and one in October. Humans are pouring about 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year, with each ton eating into the margin of error.  

The size of that carbon buffer is smaller than previous estimates have suggested, indicating that time is running out even faster than expected.  

“While our research shows it is still physically possible for the world to remain below 1.5C, it’s difficult to see how that will stay the case for long,” said Robin Lamboll, a scientist at Imperial College London and lead author of the most recent study. “Unfortunately, net-zero dates for this target are rapidly approaching, without any sign that we are meeting them.”

43 percent 

How much greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 2030 to hit the temperature target

The world would have to undergo a stark transformation during this decade to have any hope of meeting the Paris Agreement’s ambitious 1.5-degree cap. 

In a nutshell, global greenhouse gas emissions have to fall 43 percent by 2030, and 60 percent by 2035, before reaching net-zero by mid-century, according to a U.N. report published in September on the progress the world has made since signing the Paris Agreement. That would give the world a 50 percent chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees. 

But based on the climate pledges that countries have made to date, greenhouse gas emissions are likely to fall by just 2 percent this decade, according to a U.N. assessment published this month. 

Governments are “taking baby steps to avert the climate crisis,” U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell said in a statement this month. “This means COP28 must be a clear turning point.” 

$1 trillion a year 

Climate funding needs of developing countries

In many ways, U.N. climate summits are all about finance. Cutting industries’ carbon pollution, protecting communities from extreme weather, rebuilding after climate disasters — it all costs money. And developing countries, in particular, don’t have enough of it. 

As financing needs grow, pressure is mounting on richer nations such as the U.S. that have produced the bulk of planet-warming emissions to help developing countries cut their own pollution and adapt to a warmer world. They also face growing calls to pay for the destruction wrought by climate change, known as loss and damage in U.N.-speak. 

But the flow of money from rich to poor countries has slowed. In October, a pledging conference to replenish the U.N.’s Green Climate Fund raised only $9.3 billion, even less than the $10 billion that countries had promised last time. An overdue promise by developed countries to deliver $100 billion a year by 2020 to help developing countries reduce emissions and adapt to rising temperatures was “likely” met last year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said this month, while warning that adaptation finance had fallen by 14 percent in 2021. 

As a result, the gap between what developing countries need and how much money is flowing in their direction is growing. The OECD report said developing countries will need around $1 trillion a year for climate investments by 2025, “rising to roughly $2.4 trillion each year between 2026 and 2030.”

$7 trillion 

Worldwide fossil fuel subsidies in 2022

In stark contrast to the trickle of climate finance, fossil fuel subsidies have surged in recent years. In 2022, total spending on subsidies for oil, natural gas and coal reached a record $7 trillion, the International Monetary Fund said in August. That’s $2 trillion more than in 2020. 

Explicit subsidies — direct government support to reduce energy prices — more than doubled since 2020, to $1.3 trillion. But the majority of subsidies are implicit, representing the fact that governments don’t require fossil fuel companies to pay for the health and environmental damage that their products inflict on society. 

At the same time, countries continue pumping public and private money into fossil fuel production. This month, a U.N. report found that governments plan to produce more than twice the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with the 1.5-degree target. 

66,000 square kilometers

Gross deforestation worldwide in 2022

At the COP26 climate summit two years ago in Glasgow, Scotland, nations committed to halting global deforestation by 2030. A total of 145 countries have signed the Glasgow Forest Declaration, representing more than 90 percent of global forest cover. 

Yet global action is still falling short of that target. The annual Forest Declaration Assessment, produced by a collection of research and civil society organizations, estimated that the world lost 66,000 square kilometers of forest last year, or about 25,000 square miles — a swath of territory slightly larger than West Virginia or Lithuania. Most of that loss came from tropical forests. 

Halting deforestation is a critical component of global climate action. The U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that collective contributions from agriculture, forestry and land use compose as much as 21 percent of global human-caused carbon emissions. Deforestation releases large volumes of carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere, and recent research suggests that carbon losses from tropical forests may have doubled since the early 2000s.  

Almost 1 billion tons

The annual carbon dioxide removal gap 

Given the world’s slow pace in reducing greenhouse gas pollution, scientists say a second approach is essential for slowing the Earth’s warming — removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

The technology for doing this is largely untested at scale, and won’t be cheap.  

A landmark report on carbon dioxide removals led by the University of Oxford earlier this year found that keeping warming to 2 degrees Celsius or less would require countries to collectively remove an additional 0.96 billion tons of CO2-equivalent a year by 2030.

About 2 billion tons are now removed every year, but that is largely achieved through the natural absorption capacity of forests. 

Removing even more carbon will require countries to massively scale up carbon removal technologies, given the limited capacity of forests to absorb more carbon dioxide. 

Carbon removal technologies are in the spotlight at COP28, though some countries and companies want to use them to meet net-zero while continuing to burn fossil fuels. Scientists have been clear that carbon removal cannot be a substitute for steep emissions cuts. 

1,000 gigawatts 

Annual growth in renewable power capacity needed to keep 1.5 degrees in reach  

The shift from fossil fuels to renewables is underway, but the transition is still far too slow to meet the Paris Agreement targets. 

To keep 1.5 degrees within reach, the International Renewable Energy Agency estimates that the world needs to add 1,000 gigawatts in renewable energy capacity every year through 2030. By comparison, the United States’ entire utility-scale electricity-generation capacity was about 1,160 gigawatts last year, according to the Department of Energy.

Last year, countries added about 300 gigawatts, according to the agency’s latest World Energy Transitions Outlook published in June. 

That shortfall has prompted the EU and the climate summit’s host nation, the United Arab Emirates, to campaign for nations to sign up to a target to triple the world’s renewable capacity by 2030 at COP28, a goal also supported by the U.S. and China.

“The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable,” International Energy Agency boss Fatih Birol said last month. “It’s not a question of ‘if’, it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ – and the sooner the better for all of us.”

This article is part of the Road to COP special report, presented by SQM. The article is produced with full editorial independence by POLITICO reporters and editors. Learn more about editorial content presented by outside advertisers.



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Blueberries have joined green beans in this year’s Dirty Dozen list | CNN

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CNN
 — 

Blueberries, beloved by nutritionists for their anti-inflammatory properties, have joined fiber-rich green beans in this year’s Dirty Dozen of nonorganic produce with the most pesticides, according to the Environmental Working Group, a nonprofit environmental health organization.

In the 2023 Shopper’s Guide to Pesticides in Produce, researchers analyzed testing data on 46,569 samples of 46 fruits and vegetables conducted by the US Department of Agriculture. Each year, a rotating list of produce is tested by USDA staffers who wash, peel or scrub fruits and vegetables as consumers would before the food is examined for 251 different pesticides.

As in 2022, strawberries and spinach continued to hold the top two spots on the Dirty Dozen, followed by three greens — kale, collard and mustard. Listed next were peaches, pears, nectarines, apples, grapes, bell and hot peppers, and cherries. Blueberries and green beans were 11th and 12th on the list.

A total of 210 pesticides were found on the 12 foods, the report said. Kale, collard and mustard greens contained the largest number of different pesticides — 103 types — followed by hot and bell peppers at 101.

Dirty Dozen 2023

2023 Dirty Dozen (most to least contaminated)

  • Strawberries
  • Spinach
  • Kale, collard and mustard greens
  • Peaches
  • Pears
  • Nectarines
  • Apples
  • Grapes
  • Bell and hot peppers
  • Cherries
  • Blueberries
  • Green beans

    • “Some of the USDA’s tests show traces of pesticides long since banned by the Environmental Protection Agency. Much stricter federal regulation and oversight of these chemicals is needed,” the report said.

    “Pesticides are toxic by design,” said Jane Houlihan, former senior vice president of research for EWG. She was not involved in the report.

    “They are intended to harm living organisms, and this inherent toxicity has implications for children’s health, including potential risk for hormone dysfunction, cancer, and harm to the developing brain and nervous system,” said Houlihan, who is now research director for Healthy Babies, Bright Futures, an organization dedicated to reducing babies’ exposures to neurotoxic chemicals.

    There is good news, though. Concerned consumers can consider choosing conventionally grown vegetables and fruits from the EWG’s Clean 15, a list of crops that tested lowest in pesticides, the report said. Nearly 65% of the foods on the list had no detectable levels of pesticide.

    2023 Clean 15

    2023 Clean 15 (least to most contaminated)

  • Avocados
  • Sweet corn
  • Pineapple
  • Onions
  • Papaya
  • Frozen sweet peas
  • Asparagus
  • Honeydew melon
  • Kiwi
  • Cabbage
  • Mushrooms
  • Mangoes
  • Sweet potatoes
  • Watermelon
  • Carrots

    • Avocados topped 2023’s list of least contaminated produce again this year, followed by sweet corn in second place. Pineapple, onions and papaya, frozen sweet peas, asparagus, honeydew melon, kiwi, cabbage, mushrooms, mangoes, sweet potatoes, watermelon, and carrots made up the rest of the list.

    Being exposed to a variety of foods without pesticides is especially important during pregnancy and throughout childhood, experts say. Developing children need the combined nutrients but are also harder hit by contaminants such as pesticides.

    “Pesticide exposure during pregnancy may lead to an increased risk of birth defects, low birth weight, and fetal death,” the American Academy of Pediatrics noted. “Exposure in childhood has been linked to attention and learning problems, as well as cancer.”

    The AAP suggests parents and caregivers consult the shopper’s guide if they are concerned about their child’s exposure to pesticides.

    Houlihan, director of Healthy Babies, Bright Futures, agreed: “Every choice to reduce pesticides in the diet is a good choice for a child.”

    Nearly 90% of blueberry and green bean samples had concerning findings, the report said.

    In 2016, the last time green beans were inspected, samples contained 51 different pesticides, according to the report. The latest round of testing found 84 different pest killers, and 6% of samples tested positive for acephate, an insecticide banned from use in the vegetable in 2011 by the EPA.

    “One sample of non-organic green beans had acephate at a level 500 times greater than the limit set by the EPA,” said Alexis Temkin, a senior toxicologist at the EWG with expertise in toxic chemicals and pesticides.

    When last tested in 2014, blueberries contained over 50 different pesticides. Testing in 2020 and 2021 found 54 different pesticides — about the same amount. Two insecticides, phosmet and malathion, were found on nearly 10% of blueberry samples, though the levels decreased over the past decade.

    Acephate, phosmet and malathion are organophosphates, which interfere with the normal function of the nervous system, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    A high dose of these chemicals can cause difficulty breathing, nausea, a lower heart rate, vomiting, weakness, paralysis and seizures, the CDC said. If exposed over an extended time to smaller amounts, people may “feel tired or weak, irritable, depressed, or forgetful.”

    Why would levels of some pesticides be higher today than in the past?

    “We do see drops in some pesticides since the early ’90s when the Food Quality Protection Act was put into place,” Temkin said. “But we’re also seeing increases of other pesticides that have been substituted in their place which may not be any safer. That’s why there’s a push towards overall reduction in pesticide use.”

    Chris Novak, president and CEO of CropLife America, an industry association, told CNN the report “willfully misrepresented” the USDA data.

    “Farmers use pesticides to control insects and fungal diseases that threaten the healthfulness and safety of fruits and vegetables,” Novak said via email. “Misinformation about pesticides and various growing methods breeds hesitancy and confusion, resulting in many consumers opting to skip fresh produce altogether.”

    The Institute of Food Technologists, an industry association, told CNN that emphasis should be placed on meeting the legal limits of pesticides established by significant scientific consensus.

    “We all agree that the best-case scenario of pesticide residues would be as close to zero as possible and there should be continued science-based efforts to further reduce residual pesticides,” said Bryan Hitchcock, IFT’s chief science and technology officer.

    Many fruits and veggies with higher levels of pesticides are critical to a balanced diet, so don’t give them up, experts say. Instead, avoid most pesticides by choosing to eat organic versions of the most contaminated crops. While organic foods are not more nutritious, the majority have little to no pesticide residue, Temkin said.

    “If a person switches to an organic diet, the levels of pesticides in their urine rapidly decrease,” Temkin told CNN. “We see it time and time again.”

    If organic isn’t available or too pricey, “I would definitely recommend peeling and washing thoroughly with water,” Temkin said. “Steer away from detergents or other advertised items. Rinsing with water will reduce pesticide levels.”

    Additional tips on washing produce, provided by the US Food and Drug Administration, include:

    • Handwashing with warm water and soap for 20 seconds before and after preparing fresh produce.
    • Rinsing produce before peeling, so dirt and bacteria aren’t transferred from the knife onto the fruit or vegetable.
    • Using a clean vegetable brush to scrub firm produce like apples and melons.
    • Drying the produce with a clean cloth or paper towel to further reduce bacteria that may be present.

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    Avian Flu Fast Facts | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Here’s a look at avian flu.

    Avian influenza, also called avian flu or bird flu, is an illness that usually affects only birds.

    There are many different strains of avian flu: 16 H subtypes and 9 N subtypes. Only those labeled H5, H7 and H10 have caused deaths in humans.

    The most commonly seen and most deadly form of the virus is called “Influenza A (H5N1),” or the “H5N1 virus.”

    Most cases of human bird flu infections are due to contact with infected poultry or surfaces that are contaminated with infected bird excretions: saliva, nasal secretions or feces.

    Symptoms of avian flu include fever, cough, sore throat and sometimes severe respiratory diseases and pneumonia.

    The CDC recommends oral oseltamivir (brand name: Tamiflu), inhaled zanamivir (brand name: Relenza) and intravenous permavir (brand name: Rapivab) for the treatment of human illness associated with avian flu.

    The mortality rate is close to 60% for infected humans.

    Early 1900s –The avian flu is first identified in Italy.

    1961 – The H5N1 strain is isolated in birds in South Africa.

    December 1983 – Chickens in Pennsylvania and Virginia are exposed to the avian flu and more than five million birds are killed to stop the disease from spreading.

    1997 – Eighteen people are infected by the H5N1 strain in Hong Kong, six die. These are the first documented cases of human infection. Hong Kong destroys its entire poultry population, 1.5 million birds.

    1999 – Two children in Hong Kong are infected by the H9N2 strain.

    February 2003 – Eighty-four people in the Netherlands are affected by the H7N7 strain of the virus, one dies.

    February 7, 2004 – Twelve thousand chickens are killed in Kent County, Delaware, after they are found to be infected with the H7 virus.

    October 7, 2005 – The avian flu reaches Europe. Romanian officials quarantine a village of about 30 people after three dead ducks there test positive for bird flu.

    November 12, 2005 – A one-year-old boy in Thailand tests positive for the H5N1 strain of avian influenza.

    November 16, 2005 – The World Health Organization confirms two human cases of bird flu in China, including a female poultry worker who died from the H5N1 strain.

    November 17, 2005 – Two deaths are confirmed in Indonesia from the H5N1 strain of avian influenza.

    January 1, 2006 – A Turkish teenager dies of the H5N1 strain of avian influenza in Istanbul, and later that week, two of his sisters die.

    January 17, 2006 – A 15-year-old girl from northern Iraq dies after contracting bird flu.

    February 20, 2006 – Vietnam becomes the first country to successfully contain the disease. A country is considered disease-free when no new cases are reported in 21 days.

    March 12, 2006 – Officials in Cameroon confirm cases of the H5N1 strain. The avian flu has now reached four African countries.

    March 13, 2006 – The avian flu is confirmed by officials in Myanmar.

    May 11, 2006 – Djibouti announces its first cases of H5N1 – several birds and one human.

    December 20, 2011 – The US Department of Health and Human Services releases a statement saying that the government is urging scientific journals to omit details from research they intend to publish on the transfer of H5N1 among mammals. There is concern that the information could be misused by terrorists.

    July 31, 2012 – Scientists announce that H3N8, a new strain of avian flu, caused the death of more than 160 baby seals in New England in 2011.

    March 31, 2013 – Chinese authorities report the first human cases of infection of avian flu H7N9 to the World Health Organization. H7N9 has not previously been detected in humans.

    December 6, 2013 – A 73-year-old woman infected with H10N8 dies in China, the first human fatality from this strain.

    January 8, 2014 – Canadian health officials confirm that a resident from Alberta has died from H5N1 avian flu, the first case of the virus in North America. It is also the first case of H5N1 infection ever imported by a traveler into a country where the virus is not present in poultry.

    April 20, 2015 – Officials say more than five million hens will be euthanized after bird flu was detected at a commercial laying facility in northwest Iowa. According to the US Department of Agriculture, close to eight million cases of bird flu have been detected in 13 states since December. Health officials say there is little to no risk for transmission to humans with respect to H5N2. No human infections with the virus have ever been detected.

    January 15, 2016 – The US Department of Agriculture confirms that a commercial turkey farm in Dubois County, Indiana, has tested positive for the H7N8 strain of avian influenza.

    January 24, 2017 – Britain’s Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs releases a statement confirming that a case of H5N8 avian flu has been detected in a flock of farmed breeding pheasants in Preston, UK. The flock is estimated to contain around 10,000 birds. The statement adds that a number of those birds have died, and the remaining live birds at the premises are being “humanely” killed because of the disease.

    February 12, 2017 – A number of provinces in China have shut down their live poultry markets to prevent the spread of avian flu after a surge in the number of infections from the H7N9 strain. At least six provinces have reported human cases of H7N9 influenza this year, according to Chinese state media, Xinhua.

    March 5-7, 2017 – The USDA confirms that a commercial chicken farm in Tennessee has tested positive for the H7N9 strain of avian flu, but says it is genetically different from the H7N9 lineage out of China. The 73,500-bird flock in Lincoln County will be euthanized, according to Tyson Foods.

    February 14, 2018 – Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Protection announces that a 68-year-old woman has been treated for the H7N4 strain. This is the first case of this strain in a human.

    June 5, 2019 – Since 2013 there have been 1,568 confirmed human cases and 616 deaths worldwide from the H7N9 strain of avian flu, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

    December 2019 – The United Kingdom Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs confirms that a case of H5N1 avian flu has been detected at a poultry farm in Suffolk. 27,000 birds are humanely killed because of the disease.

    April 9, 2020 – The USDA confirms that a commercial turkey flock in Chesterfield County, South Carolina has tested positive for the H7N3 strain of avian flu.

    January 2021 – India culls tens of thousands of poultry birds after avian influenza is detected in ducks, crows and wild geese in at least a dozen locations across the country.

    February 18, 2021 – Russian authorities notify WHO that they have detected H5N8 in humans. “If confirmed, this would be the first time H5N8 has infected people,” a WHO Europe spokesperson says in a statement.

    June 1, 2021 – China’s National Health Commission announces the first human case of H10N3.

    February 2022 – The USDA confirms that wild birds and domestic poultry in the United States have tested positive for the H5N1 strain of avian flu. By May 17, 2023, the CDC reports there are 47 states with poultry outbreaks.

    April 26, 2022 – China’s National Health Commission announces the first human case of H3N8.

    April 28, 2022 – The CDC announces a case of H5 bird flu has been confirmed in a man in Colorado.

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    US government is testing avian flu vaccines for birds, but ending the historic outbreak isn’t that simple | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    The United States is facing what some experts are calling “a new era for bird flu.”

    Since January 2022, the country has been battling the biggest outbreak yet of highly pathogenic avian influenza in wildlife. The virus is a major threat to commercial and backyard flocks, and it has started to show up in hundreds of mammals, including a handful of pet cats.

    The risk to humans is low; there has been only one human case of this virus in the US since the outbreak began, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and nine cases globally, mostly among people who work with birds. The CDC says there are trials underway of vaccines that could be used to protect humans in case the virus changes and becomes more of a threat.

    Separately, the US Department of Agriculture, the US National Poultry Research Center and labs at a handful of American universities have been experimenting with vaccine candidates to be used in birds.

    The USDA’s Agriculture Research Service started trials of four vaccine candidates for animals in April and expects to have initial data on a single-dose vaccine available this month. A two-dose vaccine challenge study – in which animals are exposed to the virus to see how well the vaccine works – should produce results in June.

    If the animal vaccines look to be protective, the USDA’s next step would be to work with manufacturers on whether it would be feasible to use them.

    One manufacturer, Zoetis, announced April 5 the development of a vaccine geared toward currently circulating virus strains. The company says it would take about a year to get to the distribution stage in the US.

    Vaccines are already available in other countries, including China, Egypt, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico and Vietnam, and some nations are vaccinating their commercial flocks.

    However, in the United States, not all poultry experts are ready to use a vaccine, even if one becomes available – at least, not yet. Instead, their focus remains on eradicating the virus.

    As of April 26, the CDC says, nearly 58.8 million poultry have been affected by avian flu since January 2022. The virus has been detected in at least 6,737 wild birds, and the number is likely to be much higher. There have been poultry outbreaks in 47 states.

    Although this is the worst outbreak in history, improved biosecurity measures have vastly reduced the number of cases in the commercial sector, according to the USDA. When the outbreak began in early 2022, there were 51 detections among commercial poultry. In March 2023, there were only seven.

    The USDA says close surveillance work among its Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) and state and industry partners led to the reduction in cases.

    Generally, there ares two ways of confronting this kind of highly infectious disease in poultry, according to Rodrigo Gallardo, a professor in poultry medicine and a specialist in avian virology at the University of California, Davis.

    “One of them is through vaccination action. And then the other one is through eradication,” he said.

    In the United States, the latter is the approach for now, Gallardo said.

    If farmers detect even a single case in a flock, they will put down the birds right away.

    “The virus keeps replicating and amplifying if the birds are alive, so the only way of stopping the replication and limiting the dissemination is by depopulation,” Gallardo said.

    Tom Super, the senior vice president for communications for the National Chicken Council, the national trade association for the US broiler chicken industry, said in an email to CNN that although it supports the ongoing discussions about a vaccination program, “currently we support the eradication policy of APHIS and believe that right now this is the best approach at eliminating [bird flu] in the U.S.”

    The US Poultry and Egg Association said it’s “certainly a topic of discussion,” but the organization doesn’t have a position on implementing a vaccination program.

    A vaccination program comes with several complications, Gallardo said. Vaccinated birds would be protected, but with this highly infectious disease, they still could shed some virus that could infect unprotected birds.

    “So vaccination, in that case, creates amplification if it is not done right,” Gallardo said.

    Plus, it’s difficult to detect the disease in vaccinated birds. Birds that are vaccinated don’t always show signs if they’re sick, so it would be hard to know what birds to keep separate from the others. Tests also have a hard time telling the difference between antibodies generated by vaccination and antibodies from an infection.

    “If you’re not able to diagnose it, it might spread more than what it would do if you are able to diagnose it and eradicate it,” Gallardo said.

    Countries that have chosen the vaccination route see more endemic strains develop, meaning the virus is never really totally wiped out.

    “This is a very variable virus, and if you don’t update the vaccine that you’re applying to meet the change in the virus, then you won’t be able to completely protect the birds. Partial protection means more birds will be spreading the virus,” Gallardo said.

    A vaccine has never been used against highly pathogenic avian influenza in the US, according to the USDA. The agency created a vaccine after an outbreak in 2014 and 2015, but that involved a different strain, so it wouldn’t work on the latest version of the virus.

    The logistics of a vaccine like this are difficult, said Dr. Yuko Sato, an associate professor in the College of Veterinary Medicine at Iowa State University.

    “You have to make sure that the new vaccine will protect against this current virus and hope that it doesn’t mutate or change so that the vaccine will continue to be protective,” Sato said.

    “The vaccine is not a silver bullet. This is not going to prevent infection of the birds, so in order to have an exit strategy as the country, you would have to make sure that if you vaccinate, if you still have positive birds, you have to be able to make sure that you could stamp out the virus. Otherwise, we’ll never be looking at eradicating the virus from the United States.”

    Another concern: Birds are a big business in the US.

    The US has the largest poultry industry in the world, with 294,000 poultry farms. The market size for chicken and turkey meat production alone for 2023 is projected to generate $57.8 billion, according to market analysis firm IbisWorld.

    Bird flu has hurt business in the US, but it could do so in a bigger way if the nation vaccinates poultry, according to the National Chicken Council.

    “The National Chicken Council does not support the use of a vaccine for [bird flu] for a variety of reasons – the primary one being trade. Most countries, including the US, do not recognize countries that vaccinate as free of [bird flu] due to concerns that vaccines can mask the presence of the disease. Therefore, they do not accept exports from countries that do vaccinate,” Super wrote in his email.

    The US broiler industry is the second largest exporter of chicken in the world. It exports about 18% of the chicken meat produced in the United States, valued at more than $5 billion annually.

    “If we start vaccinating for [bird flu] in the U.S., the broiler industry will lose our ability to export which will have a significant impact on the industry – while costing billions and billions of dollars to the U.S. economy every year,” Super said.

    With the way the disease is spreading, scientists would also probably have to vaccinate wildlife – which is nearly impossible.

    Of the birds affected in this outbreak, about 76% are commercial egg-laying hens, 17% are turkeys, and only 5% are broilers, the chickens used for meat, Super said. The rest of the cases have been among ducks, backyard chickens and game birds.

    “So the U.S. poultry sector that least needs a vaccine would have the most to risk from using one,” he said.

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    Your pollen allergies are overwhelming? This might be why | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Pollen has exploded to eye-watering levels this spring in some parts of the country after warm weather pushed plants out of their winter slumber much earlier than normal.

    In Atlanta, the pollen count sky rocketed to “extremely high” in early March and stayed high through much of April, according to the Atlanta Allergy and Asthma physicians practice. Farther north in Washington, DC, allergy sufferers have been dreading the lime-green film of pollen covering that covers windshields and porches and piles up on streets and sidewalks.

    But these aren’t isolated trends. As the planet warms, researchers say allergy season is starting earlier and lasting longer. And a study from the journal Nature published last year found that pollen count is projected to increase by 200% by the end of the century if planet-warming pollution continues to rise.

    Climate Central, a nonprofit focused on climate news and research, recently analyzed how warmer temperatures have affected allergy season in 203 US cities since 1970.

    It found that on average, the growing season – the period between the last freeze in spring to the first freeze of fall – is lasting 16 days longer in the Southeast, 15 days longer in the Northeast and 14 days longer in the South.

    In the West, growing season is 27 days longer on average, Climate Central reported. Reno, Nevada, for example, has seen a shocking increase of 99 days.

    And a longer growing season means a longer allergy season.

    “Because of climate change, we’re now seeing an earlier and longer growing season for plants, which of course make pollen, which is the enemy of many Americans that suffer from pollen allergies – and mold allergies as well,” Lauren Casey, a meteorologist with Climate Central, told CNN. “Pollen can also trigger an asthma attack, which of course is much more serious for people that suffer from asthma.”

    When plants reproduce, typically during the spring, many release tiny pollen grains that are carried by wind. The pollen grains are small enough to be inhaled, and some people’s immune systems react very poorly to the miniscule particles.

    More than 24 million people in the US have pollen-induced respiratory allergies like hay fever, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The center’s data shows that more than one in four adults suffered from seasonal allergies in 2021.

    Growing season has lengthened by 34 days in Atlanta, according to a Climate Central analysis.

    Growing season has lengthened by 20 days in Washington, DC, according to a Climate Central analysis.

    A longer and earlier start to pollen season could trigger a public health emergency, researchers say. As temperatures get warmer in the South and drought plagues the Southwest, pollen from plants like ragweed or poaceae – a plant that typically grows in grasslands or salt-marshes – is projected to be higher across those regions than in the North.

    Wind-driven pollen, which plays an important role in plant fertilization, is closely tied to temperature and precipitation changes. So, as spring seasons get warmer earlier due to climate change, plants could pollinate much earlier and for a longer period of time than they currently do.

    Plant pollen isn’t the only trigger of seasonal allergies. Mold, a type of fungi that reproduces with tiny airborne spores, can also be allergenic for some people and can exacerbate seasonal allergies, according to the report.

    While outdoor mold is not as well-studied as pollen, according to the report, one thing is clear: Warmer and wetter weather – conditions that many locations are seeing more of amid the climate crisis – is favorable for mold development.

    “With climate change, we’re seeing increases in warming in all seasons, but particularly the fastest warming season for most locations across the US is the winter season,” Casey said. “So now we’re dealing with mold at a time of year that we typically wouldn’t.”

    Casey also pointed out that the climate crisis is making extreme precipitation more likely, which provides that crucial dampness for mold to grow. The report highlights the link between allergens and thunderstorms, which researchers say spread pollen and mold spores through the air more efficiently.

    “The problem with pollen grains is that when they get wet, they rupture, and they break into tinier bits called sub-pollen particles,” Casey said. “Those tinier bits are more easily dispersed by the wind when they dry out, and they have an easier time getting into your nasal passages.”

    Oak trees are pumping out pollen in the Southeast, contributing to extremely high levels early in the season.

    Dr. Mitchell Grayson, chair of the Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America’s Medical Scientific Council and chief of the division of allergy and immunology at Nationwide Children’s Hospital, said he has seen pollen allergies arrive earlier than usual.

    “In general, we may be seeing people a little earlier in the spring with symptoms – so mid-February from what might have been early March in the past – but there is significant year-to-year variability in this,” he told CNN. “I haven’t seen worse symptoms, but I’m in a hospital that provides specialist care, and we do see people with all ranges of severity.”

    The treatment of allergies won’t change even as the season gets longer, Grayson said. But it’s important to be aware of what you’re allergic to and know where these triggers are in the environment.

    Experts recommend:

    • Staying indoors, especially early in the morning or late in the afternoon, when most plants release pollen.
    • Wear masks outdoors when possible to mitigate the effects, Amiji said.
    • Keeping windows closed in your home and car to minimize your exposure to pollen particles.
    • Changing air filters more frequently for your A/C and heating systems in your home and car, according to the manufacturer’s instructions.
    • Preparing early by stocking up on anti-allergy medications. If you use a steroid nasal spray, Grayson said it’s important to start using it one to two weeks before your allergy season and to continue through the full season.

    Casey, the meteorologist, also noted that allergy season could be a financial burden on low-income families, especially those whose members have asthma, due to the “billions of dollars spent a year on the medical costs of asthma and allergies.”

    She said awareness is key, especially as the world pumps more carbon pollution into the atmosphere, which could worsen allergy seasons.

    “You know your own body and are aware of what a typical year is going to look like for you, especially if you’re an allergy sufferer,” she said. “But that whole paradigm is changing with this increase in the growing season, so having awareness that you may be suffering now and going forward in times of the year when you typically wouldn’t, so be prepared for that in your daily life.”



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