Tag: us presidential elections 2024

Heading into the presidential election, America is angry and worried

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The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

Donald Trump leads confidently in the swing states, but the November presidential election still holds serious challenges, John McLaughlin writes.

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In swing states, Donald Trump’s advantage is currently five percentage points: 48% would vote for him, and 43% for Joe Biden.

If the former Democrat, now running as an independent, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is also on the ballot, Trump’s advantage is even greater, rising to eight points: 42% support Trump, 34% support Biden, and 11% support Kennedy.

However, the day when a decision must be made is still far away.

What do the numbers say?

McLaughlin & Associates conducted a survey among 1,600 likely general election voters in 17 election battleground states between 16-21 January.

We found that a vast majority of American voters, 73%, believe that things are going in the wrong direction in the country, while only 27% believe that things are going well. 

This is especially true concerning the economy: half of those living in swing states reported that their lives got worse since Joe Biden became president, 33% said their situation had not changed based on their admission, and only 17% reported that their standard of living had improved.

Currently, 45% of voters feel anger or disappointment when they think about the state of the country, and 41% feel concern or fear. Their share has increased by six percentage points since last year. Only 14% feel pride, and their share has gone down by four points since 2023.

The details of the research also reveal that Donald Trump is the “leader of the angry” today. 

Among those who feel anger and disappointment, Trump’s advantage over Biden is nearly 30 points (in this round, Trump received 60% of the votes, with Biden scoring only 31%). 

However, among those who feel concern and fear, the competition is much closer: Biden leads by six points, 48/42. Yet, the proportion of the latter group among American voters is on the rise.

The situation is understandable in many ways. The explosion of inflation, the subsequent economic uncertainty, uncontrolled illegal immigration, the deterioration of public safety in American cities, or the significant increase in the number and risks of armed conflicts raging around the world all increase the concerns and fears of voters. 

The world seems increasingly unpredictable. We live in an anxious, uncertain age.

Winning over moderate voters is the path to victory

As the presidential election approaches, those moderate, middle-of-the-road voters, or voters who identify themselves as independent, who are otherwise not interested in politics, become more and more active in the political sense. But in this case, their opinion can be of decisive importance. 

In this segment, fears and worries make up the majority: 45% of “moderate” voters feel worried about the state of the country, 39% feel anger and dissatisfaction, and only 16% feel pride. 

By mobilizing those in the middle, the so-called “moderate” voters, the proportion and importance of those who are looking for protection and security in an increasingly uncertain world in economic and political terms can further increase. 

Winning over these voters is a political challenge for both Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, for example, faced similar challenges in 2010, before his re-election. 

At that time, Hungary was suffering from the consequences of the great global economic crisis of 2008, and voters were angry and desperate. 

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Then, Orbán’s campaign focused on “hearing, seeing, and feeling the economic fears and concerns of Hungarians”, and the way out was through the removal of the ruling left-wing government, to achieve a “strong Hungary”. 

Orbán won the election because, in addition to the angry right-wing voters, he also paid attention to those moderates who were worried, felt insecure, and feared for the future of their families.

A battle of characters ahead

The American presidential election is always a battle of characters.

Voters in battleground states see Joe Biden as a weak leader. According to 74%, he is a weak leader. He is considered too old and many question his mental health (82% of voters). 

However, it is also undeniable that many people see him as a kind of “grandparent, grandfather” figure who has seen, experienced, and understands a lot. He understands those who are afraid, afraid for the future of their family and the country.

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As the leader of “angry Americans”, Donald Trump is undeniably strong, charismatic, and unafraid to fight. However, it is important to whom you are fighting for and why. 

You can fight China, the corrupt bureaucracy in Washington, or even the radical left — all of this is far from the everyday life of many. 

We could also say that all this is just “politics about politics”. Those who are worried and anxious about the future need a strong leader who uses his power to protect them. American families, early risers, decent workers — the backbone of America.

Right now, however, Trump is an advocate for the angry. It will become clear during the campaign whether he will be able to appeal to those who fear for their own or their family’s future. 

Even a near-equal result with Biden in this group would tip the November elections in Trump’s direction.

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A strong leader to arise?

Donald Trump now needs productive fights where he can stand up to protect American families from crime, the risk of terrorism, and drug trafficking flowing in through open borders, while also making sure that those who work hard can also make a living, not only the corrupt elite in Washington. 

His fight would also consist of preventing the dollar from losing its purchasing power while making sure homes can run on affordable energy. 

These are struggles where moderate voters can feel that the strong leader not only defeats his political opponents, but is also useful to them, because he fights for them, protects them, and can create security.

For Trump, fighting such productive conflicts could lead to another victory by winning over moderate voters.

John McLaughlin is CEO of McLaughlin & Associates.

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Can Donald Trump meet raising expectations heading into the Iowa caucuses?

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When Donald Trump launched his 2024 presidential campaign after a disappointing midterm election for Republicans, his trajectory was something of a mystery. However, seven days before Iowa’s kick-off caucuses, his standing among the GOP faithful is hardly in doubt.

Voters, campaign operatives and even some of the candidates on the ground overwhelmingly agree that the Republican former President is the prohibitive favourite heading into the January 15 caucuses — whether they like it or not.

“Everybody sees the writing on the wall,” said Angela Roemerman, a 56-year-old Republican from Solon, Iowa, as she waited for former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley to arrive for a weekend rally at Field Day Brewing Co. in North Liberty. “It’s a little depressing,” Ms. Roemerman said, as her order of tortilla chips arrived, lamenting “all the drama” surrounding Mr. Trump. “We don’t need another four years. But Mr. Trump’s going to win.”

Just beneath all the perceived certainty about Mr. Trump’s victory, however, lies serious risks for the front-runner. He continues to fuel sky-high expectations, despite questions about the strength of his voter-turnout operation and stormy weather forecasts that could dissuade supporters from showing up.

Few believe such issues will lead to a straight-up loss next week in Iowa, but in the complicated world of presidential politics, a win is not always a win. Should Mr. Trump fail to meet expectations with a resounding victory in Iowa, he would enter New Hampshire and South Carolina much more vulnerable.

Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis continue to pour millions of dollars into Iowa advertising as they cross the State, backed by well-funded allies with robust get-out-the-vote operations, in a relentless effort to narrow Mr. Trump’s margin of victory.

At the same time, Mr. Trump’s team privately acknowledges that it has cut back on its door-knocking, get-out-the-vote operation heading into the final week. They insist they can ensure his loyalists show up on caucus day more effectively by relying on rallies, phone calls and a peer-to-peer text message programme. That’s even as allies of DeSantis and Haley push ahead with traditional get-out-the-vote plans at voters’ doorways.

Momentum was building for Haley, says New Hampshire Governor

New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, who has endorsed Ms. Haley and spent the weekend campaigning with her across Iowa, conceded that “it will be tough” to beat Mr. Trump in the State.

“There’s obviously a strong implication Trump’s gonna likely win the Iowa caucus,” Sununu told The Associated Press, even as he insisted momentum was building for Ms. Haley that will show up more clearly in New Hampshire’s Jan. 23 first-in-the-nation primary. “In New Hampshire, she clearly has a chance to do something no one thought was possible, which was to beat Trump in an early state.”

Aware of the risks, the former President’s team is scrambling to lower expectations for Iowa. In recent days, Mr. Trump’s advisers have been quick to remind reporters — at least privately — that no Republican presidential candidate has won a contested Iowa caucus by more than 12 points since Bob Dole in 1988.

The Trump campaign sees Dole’s margin as the floor for Mr. Trump’s victory, a senior adviser told The Associated Press, requesting anonymity to share internal discussions. The adviser described the mood of the campaign as confident but not comfortable, acknowledging questions about the strength of rival organisations and, as always, the weather, which could affect turnout if there is snow or extreme cold.

Impact of cold weather

Heavy snowfall, blowing and drifting snow and dangerous travel conditions are expected on Monday and Tuesday of this week to be followed by frigid temperatures that could drift below 0 degrees (-17 degrees Celcius) by caucus day.

The weather has already forced the Trump campaign to cancel multiple appearances by Arkansas Governor Sarah Sanders and her father, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who had been scheduled to court Iowa voters on Mr. Trump’s behalf Monday.

Ever defiant, Mr. Trump projected confidence as he raced across the state for a series of “commit to caucus” rallies over the weekend before returning to his Florida estate. He’s scheduled to return to Iowa on Wednesday for a Fox News town hall.

At every stop over the weekend, he talked about his dominant standing in the polls. He’s also frequently invoked claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him by voter fraud, a claim refuted by the courts and his own administration but one that fuelled a attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Still, weather is the more immediate concern heading into the final full week of campaigning in Iowa.

Mr. Trump told an audience of more than 2,000 in Clinton on Jan. 6 night that his aides told him he shouldn’t worry about cold weather, although his opponents probably should. “The other side will never vote, because they don’t have any enthusiasm,” Mr. Trump said. Stoking the crowd, he added, “We won’t lose one vote, because our people, they’re going to walk on glass.”

That’s not to say there’s no risk. “The biggest risk is you say, you know, ‘We’re winning by so much, darling, let’s stay home and watch television,’” he said the night before in Mason City. “And if enough people do that, it’s not going to be pretty.”

Trump leads, according to poll

Indeed, Mr. Trump has a loyal base of support but he’s also targeting a significant number of first-time caucus participants who don’t necessarily know where to go next Monday or how the complicated caucus process works. The events feature a series of speeches and votes that can span multiple hours, and in many cases, they’re not held at regular polling locations.

A Des Moines Register poll conducted in December found that 63% of likely first-time Republican caucus participants say Mr. Trump is their first choice. One of the first-time participants may be William Caspers, a 37-year-old farmer from Rockwell, Iowa. He said he had never attended a political event of any kind before Mr. Trump’s Mason City event on Jan. 5.

Trump’s campaign machinery

While he’s supporting Mr. Trump “100%” in 2024, he said he was only “pretty sure” he would caucus for him. “Where is it going to be? Where do I go? I’m kind of confused about that,” Mr. Caspers said. He noted that he was in the bathroom when a caucus explainer video played on the big screen at the front of the event hall. Several hundred other voters were still in line outline during the video. “So, the caucus is this Monday?” he asked an AP reporter, who clarified that it was Jan. 15.

Not far away, Jackie Garlock, of nearby Clear Lake, was wearing a white hat indicating her status as one of Mr. Trump’s “caucus captains.” The campaign has promoted its efforts to recruit and train hundreds of such captains, who will represent the campaign within a given precinct on Monday night.

Ms. Garlock said she only briefly attended one virtual training on Zoom, which she described as largely a pep rally. She also said that she’s not particularly good or experienced at political organising. But she’s not worried. “I have a lot of confidence,” she said of Mr. Trump’s chances next week as she scanned the crowded North Iowa Events Center. “I just look at the number of people who are here and I think, how can they all be wrong?”

Big money spent on attack advertisements

Meanwhile, Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis are spending money to attack each other on Iowa television, although Ms. Haley has had a decided spending advantage in the caucus’ final days. Overall, Ms. Haley and her allies are on pace to spend more than $15 million in Iowa television advertising this month alone; while DeSantis’ team is spending less than $5 million, according to an AP analysis of data from the media tracking firm AdImpact.

Virtually none of their attack advertisements are directed at Mr. Trump. That’s even as Ms. Haley’s primary super PAC is running multiple ads describing DeSantis as “a dumpster fire,” and one of Mr. DeSantis’ evolving group of super PACs recently launched an ad campaign calling Ms. Haley “Tricky Nikki.”

Mr. Trump and his allies are spending nearly $10 million this month in Iowa. And he’s shifted some of his attacks away from Mr. DeSantis and toward Ms. Haley. But he’s also investing in ads targeting Democratic President Joe Biden, his likely general election opponent.

Of all the candidates on the ground in Iowa this week, only DeSantis is predicting an outright victory over Mr. Trump. He moved his entire campaign leadership to the state in recent months and visited each of Iowa’s 99 counties.

“You’re going to see an earthquake on Jan. 15,” DeSantis told dozens of supporters at a downtown bar in Dubuque.

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Trump’s target letter suggests probe into 2020 election is zeroing in

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A target letter sent to Donald Trump suggests that a sprawling Justice Department investigation into efforts to overturn the 2020 election is zeroing in on him after more than a year of interviews with top aides to the former president and state officials from across the country.

 Former President Donald Trump said Tuesday he had received a letter informing him that he is a target of the Justice Department’s investigation into efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, an indication he could soon be charged by U.S. prosecutors.

New federal charges, on top of existing state and federal counts in New York and Florida and a separate election-interference investigation nearing conclusion in Georgia, would add to the list of legal problems for Trump as he pursues the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

Trump disclosed the existence of a target letter in a post on his Truth Social platform, saying he received it Sunday night and he anticipates being indicted. Such a letter often precedes an indictment and is used to advise individuals under investigation that prosecutors have gathered evidence linking them to a crime. Trump himself received one soon before being charged last month in a separate investigation into the illegal retention of classified documents.

A spokesman for special counsel Jack Smith, whose office is leading the investigation, declined to comment.

Legal experts have said potential charges could include conspiracy to defraud the United States and obstruction of an official proceeding, in this case, Congress’ certification of President Joe Biden’s electoral victory.

Smith’s team has cast a broad net in its investigation into attempts by Trump and his allies to block the transfer of power to Biden in the days leading up to the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, when Trump loyalists stormed the building in a bid to disrupt the certification of state electoral votes in Congress. More than 1,000 people accused of participating in the riot have been charged.

Smith’s probe has centred on a broad range of efforts by Trump and allies to keep him in office, including the role played by lawyers in pressing for the overturning of results as well as plans for slates of fake electors in multiple battleground states won by Biden to submit false electoral certificates to Congress.

Prosecutors have questioned multiple Trump administration officials before a grand jury in Washington, including former Vice President Mike Pence, who Trump repeatedly pressured to ignore his constitutional duty and block the counting in Congress of electoral votes on 6 January.

They’ve also interviewed other Trump advisers, including former Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, as well as local election officials in states including Michigan and New Mexico who were targets of a pressure campaign from the then-president to overturn election results in their states. A lawyer for Giuliani, who participated in a voluntary interview, said Tuesday that he did not receive a target letter.

In a related case, Michigan’s attorney general filed felony charges Tuesday against 16 Republicans who acted as fake electors for Trump in 2020. They were accused of submitting false certificates confirming they were legitimate electors despite Joe Biden’s victory in the state.

Trump has consistently denied wrongdoing and did so again in his Tuesday post, writing, “Under the United States Constitution, I have the right to protest an Election that I am fully convinced was Rigged and Stolen, just as the Democrats have done against me in 2016, and many others have done over the ages.”

Trump remains the Republican party’s dominant frontrunner in the 2024 presidential race, despite indictments in New York and in Florida, which appear to have had little impact on his standing in the crowded GOP field. The indictments also have helped his campaign raise millions of dollars from supporters, though he raised less after the second than the first, raising questions about whether subsequent charges will have the same impact.

A fundraising committee backing Trump’s candidacy began soliciting contributions just hours after he revealed the new letter, casting the investigation as “just another vicious act of Election Interference on behalf of the Deep State to try and stop the Silent Majority from having a voice in your own country.”

Meanwhile, Trump continued to campaign as usual. He travelled Tuesday to Iowa, where he criticized investigators and tried to make light of his mounting legal woes as he spoke at a local GOP meeting and taped a town hall with Fox News host Sean Hannity.

The Trump indictments have proven politically challenging for some of Trump’s rivals, who must be mindful of his deep support among many of the party’s primary voters as well as their distrust of federal law enforcement.

Asked about the letter during a press conference in South Carolina, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Trump’s most serious challenger, said he hadn’t seen it but delivered his most forceful critique of Trump’s inaction on 6 January.

“I think it was shown how he was in the White House and didn’t do anything while things were going on. He should have come out more forcefully,” DeSantis said. However, he added, “But to try to criminalize that, that’s a different issue entirely.”

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who had previously criticised Trump for his actions that day, accused Democrats of trying to “weaponize government to go after their number one opponent.”

Trump, since leaving office, has increasingly downplayed the events of 6 January, describing the rally he held that day as a “lovefest” and “a beautiful thing.” He has also embraced defendants jailed for their alleged roles in the insurrection, including promising to pardon a “large portion” and to issue an official apology to them if he is reelected.

In June, he spoke at a fundraiser for the defendants and earlier this year collaborated on a song called “Justice for All,” a version of the Star-Spangled Banner sung by a choir of 6 January defendants and recorded over a prison phone line that is overlaid with Trump reciting the Pledge of Allegiance.

Some Trump campaign officials and allies argue the country has largely moved on from 6 January and see the latest investigation as similar to others, believing it will have little impact.

One purpose of a target letter is to advise a potential defendant that he or she has a right to appear before the grand jury. Trump said in his post that he has been given “a very short four days to report to the Grand Jury, which almost always means an Arrest and indictment.” Aides did not immediately respond to questions seeking further information.

Prosecutors in Georgia are conducting a separate investigation into efforts by Trump to reverse his election loss in that state, with the top prosecutor in Fulton County signalling that she expects to announce charging decisions next month.

In his post on Tuesday, Trump wrote that “they have now effectively indicted me three times … with a probably fourth coming from Atlanta.” He added in capital letters, “This witch hunt is all about election interference and a complete and total political weaponization of law enforcement.”

Trump was indicted last month on 37 federal felony counts in relation to accusations of illegally retaining hundreds of classified documents at his Florida estate, Mar-a-Lago. He has pleaded not guilty. A pretrial conference, in that case, was held Tuesday in Fort Pierce, Florida, where a judge said she expected to soon decide on a trial date.

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Biden v Trump: a roadmap to the 2024 presidential election

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For now, a rerun of the 2020 race looks almost certain. With months to go till the first primaries, who is best placed to win?

Republican and Democratic voters have to wait nearly a year to decide on their candidates, but the US’s 2024 presidential election campaign is already well underway.

So far, the odds are in favour of a head-to-head race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the first election since 1892 to pit a former president against a sitting one. So what can we expect, and who might come out on top?

Biden officially launched his reelection bid last month, rallying Americans to join him with a new slogan: “let’s finish the job”. Meanwhile, on the other side, polls, fundraising numbers and endorsements all seem to point one way: while he already faces primary challengers as well as serious legal problems, Trump is set to win the Republican nomination.

He was recently indicted by a New York grand jury over alleged hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, but according to one recent poll, 68% of Republican primary voters consider the investigations into his conduct “politically motivated” and agree that “we must support him”.

The former president is also ahead when it comes to money. The Trump campaign reported a $15.4 million fundraising haul for the first quarter of the year, putting him ahead of the two other declared GOP candidates. “Anti-woke” entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy declared $11.4 million, a sum overwhelmingly sourced from his personal wealth; Trump’s former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, meanwhile, initially claimed to have raised a similar figure, but ultimately turned out to have pulled in just $5.1 million.

Crucially, Trump’s numbers do not reflect the effect of his recent indictment, or the civil suit that saw him found liable for sexual assault. In the two weeks after the Stormy Daniels indictment, the Trump campaign raised an additional $15.4 million, receiving more than 312,000 donations – 97% of which were less than $200.

Establishment blessing

If money matters, so do endorsements. While support for Trump is far from unanimous, the GOP’s increasingly extreme Washington leaders are so far still backing him. Haley has not attracted much in the way of top-tier endorsements, while other possible candidates yet to jump in – former vice president Mike Pence, for one – show little sign of gathering steam.

It remains possible that popular Florida Governor Ron DeSantis could pose a threat to Trump’s nomination. But while he has long been seen as by far Trump’s most significant challenger, the chatter about his chances against the former president has died down noticeably in recent months.

Biden’s campaign announcement, meanwhile, has hardly generated a wave of enthusiasm. According to an NBC poll, 70% of all Americans, including 51% of Democrats, think that he should not run for a second term. And yet, there is no sign of any mainstream Democrat stepping forward to challenge him.

There are two other candidates running against him so far: spiritual author Marianne Williamson, who campaigned unsuccessfully in the 2020 contest, and longtime anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr, whose father was murdered while campaigning for president in 1968. But both have been firmly frozen out by the party establishment, and so far, neither appears to pose any meaningful threat to Biden’s chances; there is no indication the president will appear alongside them at any TV debates.

Even with no mainstream Democratic challenger on the horizon, Biden’s nomination is hardly a sure thing. Forced to compete on the gruelling campaign trail while also holding the presidency, the octogenarian Biden’s verbal and physical performance may yet raise further doubts over whether he is fit for the job.

But while combination of consistently discouraging polls, constant Republican allegations of corruption involving the Biden family and doubts about Biden’s ability to serve out a full second term leave at least some space for an alternative scenario to play out, there remains no indication of what that would scenario would be.

So assuming that a 2020 rematch is on the cards, who would be in a better position to win the White House?

Class consciousness

Recent polls suggest the rematch would be a tight race, but the road ahead is still long and full of uncertainties. What seems clear, however, is that both candidates will revert to Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign slogan: “It’s the economy, stupid”. And while Biden is currently insisting that his economic plan is working, economic gut feelings could still work in the GOP’s favour.

While a lot can and will happen over the next 17 months, the economic outlook is far from encouraging, as the risk of recession remains high. Record-high inflation has been punishing Americans for the best part of two years: according to a recent survey by McLaughlin & associates, 65% of voters believe the US is heading in the wrong direction, and 79% say their household finances have been adversely affected by the economy.

Moreover, an unprecedented debt default – with potentially devastating consequences for the American economy – remains a possibility, with Biden seemingly unwilling to compromise with Republican demands in exchange for a vote to lift the debt ceiling.

The GOP’s opportunity here stems from the fact that the party’s base has substantially changed, rebalancing away from wealthy “country club” suburbanites and instead relying on a culturally conservative and economically populist middle- and working-class Americans – that is, people hit hardest by the economy’s problems.

By way of evidence, nine of the ten wealthiest congressional districts are now represented by Democrats, while Republicans represent 64% of the congressional districts whose median incomes sit below the national median.

Yet even with an advantage on the economic front, in order to secure a majority, Trump would have to balance the claims of his conservative base without alienating independent voters. This would demand a change in style that the former president may not be willing to make, if he’s even capable of doing so.

Swing states

Meanwhile, America’s electoral geography has changed over the past decade, with Democrats making advances in urban centres and Republicans cementing their advantage in rural areas.

The crucial Electoral College battlegrounds have also changed. Coming off the last two elections, former swing states Ohio, Iowa and even Florida are now firmly in the red column. Eyes are now turned to the the onetime Democratic “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that went for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 – both times by extremely narrow margins.

And regardless of who the candidates are, the economic and geographical realignment of the two party’s electoral coalitions means the 2024 election will be decided by suburban voters in those same three states, along with the rapidly liberalising battlegrounds of Arizona and Georgia – two states that locked up Biden’s victory in 2020.

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Biden formally launches 2024 reelection bid with video announcement

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US President Joe Biden has formally announced his plans to run for reelection in 2024 saying: “This is our moment… Let’s finish this job, I know we can” in a video message.

Biden hopes voters will set aside their concerns about extending the run of America’s oldest president for another four years.

Biden, who would be 86 at the end of a second term, is betting his first-term legislative achievements and more than 50 years of experience in Washington will count for more than concerns over his age. He faces a smooth path to winning his party’s nomination, with no serious Democratic rivals. But he’s still set to face a hard-fought struggle to retain the presidency in a bitterly divided nation.

The announcement comes on the four-year anniversary of when Biden declared his bid for the White House in 2019, promising to heal the “soul of the nation” amid the turbulent presidency of Donald Trump, a goal that has remained elusive.

While the question of seeking reelection has been a given for most modern presidents, that’s not always been the case for Biden. A notable swath of Democratic voters has indicated they would prefer he not run, in part because of his age, concerns Biden himself has called “ totally legitimate.”

Yet few things have unified Democratic voters like the prospect of Trump returning to power. And Biden’s political standing within his party stabilised after Democrats notched a stronger-than-expected performance in last year’s midterm elections.

For now, the 76-year-old Trump is the favourite to emerge as the Republican nominee, creating the potential of a historic sequel to the tumultuous 2020 campaign. But Trump faces significant hurdles of his own, including the designation of being the first former president to face criminal charges.

The remaining GOP field is volatile, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis emerging as an early alternative to Trump. His stature is also in question, however, amid questions about his readiness to campaign outside of his increasingly Republican-leaning state.

As the contours of the campaign begin to take shape, Biden plans to campaign on his record. He spent his first two years as president combating the coronavirus pandemic and pushing through major bills such as the bipartisan infrastructure package and legislation to promote high-tech manufacturing and climate measures. 

With Republicans now in control of the House, Biden has shifted his focus to implementing those massive laws and making sure voters credit him for the improvements while sharpening the contrast with the GOP ahead of an expected showdown over raising the nation’s borrowing limit that could have debilitating consequences for the country’s economy.

But the president also has multiple policy goals and unmet promises from his first campaign that he’s pitching voters on giving him another chance to fulfil.

“Let’s finish the job,” Biden said a dozen times during his State of the Union address in February, listing everything from passing a ban on assault-style weapons and lowering the cost of prescription drugs to codifying a national right to abortion after the Supreme Court’s ruling last year overturning Roe v. Wade.

Buoyed by the midterm results, Biden plans to continue to cast all Republicans as embracing what he calls “ultra-MAGA” politics — a reference to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan — regardless of whether his predecessor ends up on the 2024 ballot. 

He’s spent the last several months road-testing campaign themes, including painting Republicans as fighting for tax cuts for businesses and the wealthy while trying to cut social safety net benefits relied on by everyday Americans.

The president also can point to his work over the past two years shoring up American alliances, leading a global coalition to support Ukraine’s defences against Russia’s invasion and returning the US to the Paris climate accord. But public support in the US for Ukraine has softened in recent months, and some voters question the tens of billions of dollars in military and economic assistance flowing to Kyiv.

Biden also faces lingering criticism over his administration’s chaotic 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan after nearly 20 years of war, which undercut the image of competence he aimed to portray to the world, and he finds himself the target of GOP attacks over his immigration and economic policies.

As a candidate in 2020, Biden pitched voters on his familiarity with the halls of power in Washington and his relationships around the world as he promised to return a sense of normalcy to the country amid Trump’s tumultuous presidency and the deadly COVID-19 pandemic.

But even back then, Biden was acutely aware of voters’ concerns about his age.

“Look, I view myself as a bridge, not as anything else,” Biden said in March 2020, as he campaigned in Michigan with younger Democrats, including now-Vice President Kamala Harris, Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. “There’s an entire generation of leaders you saw stand behind me. They are the future of this country.”

Three years later, the president is now 80, Biden allies say his time in office has demonstrated that he saw himself as more of a transformational than a transitional leader.

Still, many Democrats would prefer that Biden didn’t run again. A recent poll from The Associated Press-NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research shows just 47% of Democrats say they want him to seek a second term, up from 37% in February. And Biden’s verbal — and occasional physical — stumbles have become fodder among the GOP, which has sought to cast him as unfit for office.

Biden, on multiple occasions, has brushed back concerns about his age, saying simply, “Watch me.”

During a routine physical in February, his physician, Dr Kevin O’Connor, declared him “healthy, vigorous” and “fit” to handle his White House responsibilities.

Aides acknowledge that while some in his party might prefer an alternative to Biden, there is anything but consensus within their diverse coalition on who that might be. And they insist that when Biden is compared to whomever the GOP nominates, Democrats and independents will rally around Biden.

To prevail again, Biden will need to revive the alliance of young voters and Black voters — particularly women — along with blue-collar Midwesterners, moderates and disaffected Republicans who helped him win in 2020. He’ll have to again carry the so-called “blue wall” in the Upper Midwest while protecting his position in Georgia and Arizona, longtime GOP strongholds that he narrowly won in his last campaign.

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Secular religions of race, sex and climate have put U.S. in chokehold: Vivek Ramaswamy

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Three secular religions — race, sex and climate — have put the U.S. in a chokehold today, Republican presidential aspirant Vivek Ramaswamy has said.

Addressing his fellow conservative Republicans, Mr. Ramaswamy also proposed disruptive ideas of dismantling the Department of Education along with the FBI and banning American companies from doing business with China if he is elected as the president of the country in 2024.

“The Declaration of Independence of today is our declaration of independence from China. If Thomas Jefferson were alive today, that is the Declaration of Independence he would sign. That is the Declaration of Independence I will sign if I am elected as your next president,” Mr. Ramaswamy, 37, said.

Jefferson was an American statesman, diplomat, lawyer, architect, philosopher, and one of the Founding Fathers of the U.S. He served as the third president of the U.S. from 1801 to 1809 and was the primary author of the Declaration of Independence.

Mr. Ramaswamy, who announced his decision to enter the 2024 race to the White House last week, noted that he was inspired by former president Donald Trump, 76, and his “America first” vision.

It is time to identify the issues and work aggressively towards them, Mr. Ramaswamy said during his address to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) — the top annual event of the Republican Party and its support base— on Saturday.

It was his first major address from the national stage of the CPAC.

In his 18-minute speech, Mr. Ramaswamy said “three secular religions have America in a chokehold today”.

The first of them is this “woke racial religion” that says someone’s identity is based on his skin colour.

“That if you are black, you are inherently disadvantaged. That if you are white, you are inherently privileged no matter your economic background or your upbringing. That your race determines who you are and what you can achieve in life,” Mr. Ramaswamy said.

This has created “this new culture of fear in America”, combined with the “second secular religion” that says the “sex of the person you are attracted to has to be hardwired on the day you were born” but your “own biological sex is completely fluid over the course of your lifetime”.

“It makes no sense unless it is a religion. It does not match up to reason, it matches up to religion. And then it makes the same move as the first religion,” Mr. Ramaswamy said.

The third one is the climate religion in America that says that “we have to fight carbon emissions at all costs in the United States while we shift those same carbon emissions to places like China,” the Indian-American entrepreneur said.

“…Even if you believe in this religion, you would have embraced nuclear energy, which is the best form of carbon-free energy production known to mankind”.

“And yet these people oppose nuclear energy. What is really going on is that the climate religion has about as much to do with the climate as the Spanish Inquisition had to do with Christ, which is to say nothing at all. It is about power, dominion, control, punishment and apologising for what we have achieved in this country and the modern West as we know it,” Mr. Ramaswamy said amidst applause from the audience.

The U.S., he said is in the middle of a national identity crisis.

“Take it from me. I am 37 years old. I am a millennial. I was born in 1985. I will tell you this, my generation, really every generation of Americans today, we are so hungry for a cause.

“We are hungry for purpose and meaning and identity at a point in our national history when the things that used to fill our hunger for purpose, faith, patriotism, hard work, family — these things have disappeared,” Mr. Ramaswamy said.

He said this is an opportunity for the Republican Party and for the conservative movement to rise to the occasion and fill that void with a vision of American national identity that runs so deep that it dilutes woke “poison” to “irrelevance”.

Mr. Ramaswamy said he is all in on the “America first” agenda.

“Believe me, I am an ‘America first’ conservative. I will not apologise for it. But to put America first, we now need to rediscover what America is. And that is why last week I announced my run for US president to deliver a national identity that we are missing in this country,” Mr. Ramaswamy said.

“This means that you believe in merit, that you get ahead in this country, not on the colour of your skin, but on the content of your character and your contributions. And that is why as the US president, I have pledged to get rid of affirmative action in this country once and for all. It is national cancer on our soul,” Mr. Ramaswamy said.

‘Ban U.S. companies from doing business in China’

Mr. Ramaswamy said he would ban U.S. companies from doing business in China.

“I think it is important to be honest. If we want to declare independence from China, that means we got to be willing to ban most U.S. businesses from doing business in China until the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) falls or until the CCP radically reforms itself. Because there is no easy way out other than taking that band-aid and ripping it right off,” Mr. Ramaswamy said.

“I am sorry Henry Kissinger. We are done with your experiment. In America, it is the only way out. We got to start thinking on the time scales of history, not the time scales of electoral cycles,” Mr. Ramaswamy said.

Kissinger served as U.S. Secretary of State and National Security Advisor under the presidential administrations of Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford.

“We do not need (Arthur Neville) Chamberlain, we need a little bit of (Winston) Churchill in this country. If you are willing to make a sacrifice, the chances are you will never have to make it because the other side will fall first,” Mr. Ramaswamy asserted.

Dismantling Department of Education

In his speech, Mr. Ramaswamy also called for dismantling the Department of Education and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

“I have already said last week, the first agency we will shut down and need to shut down in the United States is the U.S. Department of Education. It has no reason to exist. Never should have existed.

“And today, I am ready to announce the second government agency that I will shut down in this country we should have done this at least 60 years ago,” Mr. Ramaswamy said.

It has hurt Republicans and Democrats alike, he added.

“We are going to get it done as finally, it is time to shut down the FBI in America and create something new to take its place because we are done with the J. Edgar Hoover legacy to let this be a self-governing nation again,” Mr. Ramaswamy said, referring to the American law-enforcement administrator who served as the first Director of the FBI.

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