Tag: Turkey and presidential and parliamentary elections

Voters in Turkey return to polls to decide on opposing Presidential visions

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Voters in Turkey returned to the polls on May 28 to decide whether the country’s longtime leader stretches his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade or is unseated by a challenger who has promised to restore a more democratic society.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been at Turkey’s helm for 20 years, is favoured to win a new five-year term in the second-round runoff after coming just short of an outright victory in the first round on May 14.

The divisive populist who turned his country into a geopolitical player finished 4% points ahead of Mr. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of a six-party alliance and leader of Turkey’s centre-left main opposition party. Mr. Erdogan’s performance came despite crippling inflation and the effects of a devastating earthquake three months ago.

Kilicdaroglu (pronounced KEH-lich-DAHR-OH-loo), a 74-year-old former bureaucrat, has described the runoff as a referendum on the country’s future.

More than 64 million people are eligible to cast ballots. The polls opened at 8 a.m.

Turkey does not have exit polls, but the preliminary results are expected to come within hours of the polls closing at 5 p.m.

The final decision could have implications far beyond Ankara because Turkey stands at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, and it plays a key role in NATO.

Turkey vetoed Sweden’s bid to join the alliance and purchased Russian missile-defense systems, which prompted the United States to oust Turkey from a U.S.-led fighter-jet project. But Erdogan’s government also helped broker a crucial deal that allowed Ukrainian grain shipments and averted a global food crisis.

The May 14 election saw 87% turnout, and strong participation is expected again on May 28, reflecting voters’ devotion to elections in a country where freedom of expression and assembly have been suppressed.

If he wins, Mr. Erdogan, 69, could remain in power until 2028. After three stints as Prime Minister and two as President, the devout Muslim who heads the conservative and religious Justice and Development Party, or AKP, is already Turkey’s longest-serving leader.

The first half of Mr. Erdogan’s tenure included reforms that allowed the country to begin talks to join the European Union and economic growth that lifted many out of poverty. But he later moved to suppress freedoms and the media and concentrated more power in his hands, especially after a failed coup attempt that Turkey says was orchestrated by the U.S.-based Islamic cleric Mr. Fethullah Gulen. The cleric denies involvement.

Mr. Erdogan transformed the presidency from a largely ceremonial role to a powerful office through a narrowly won 2017 referendum that scrapped Turkey’s parliamentary system of governance. He was the first directly elected president in 2014 and won the 2018 election that ushered in the executive presidency.

The May 14 election was the first that Mr. Erdogan did not win outright.

Critics blame Mr. Erdogan’s unconventional economic policies for skyrocketing inflation that has fueled a cost-of-living crisis. Many also faulted his government for the slow response to the earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey.

Still, Mr. Erdogan has retained the backing of conservative voters who remain devoted to him for lifting Islam’s profile in the country that was founded on secular principles and for raising the country’s influence in world politics.

In a bid to woo voters hit hard by inflation, he has increased wages and pensions and subsidized electricity and gas bills, while showcasing Turkey’s homegrown defence industry and infrastructure projects. He also centred his reelection campaign on a promise to rebuild quake-stricken areas, including constructing 319,000 homes within the year. Many see him as a source of stability.

Mr. Kilicdaroglu is a soft-mannered former civil servant who has led the pro-secular Republican People’s Party, or CHP, since 2010. He campaigned on a promise to reverse Mr. Erdogan’s democratic backsliding, restore the economy by reverting to more conventional policies and to improve ties with the West.

In a frantic do-or-die effort to reach out to nationalist voters in the runoff, Mr. Kilicdaroglu vowed to send back refugees and ruled out any peace negotiations with Kurdish militants if he is elected.

Many in Turkey regard Syrian refugees who have been under Turkey’s temporary protection after fleeing the war in neighboring Syria as a burden on the country, and their repatriation became a key issue in the election.

Earlier in the week, Mr. Erdogan received the endorsement of third-place candidate, nationalist politician Sinan Ogan, who garnered 5.2% of the votes and is no longer in the race. Meanwhile, a staunchly anti-migrant party that had supported Ogan’s candidacy, announced it would back Mr. Kilicdaroglu.

A defeat for Mr. Kilicdaroglu would add to a long list of electoral losses to Mr. Erdogan and put pressure for him to step down as party chairman.

Mr. Erdogan’s AKP party and its allies retained a majority of seats in parliament following a legislative election that was also held on May 14. Parliamentary elections will not be repeated on May 28.

Editorial | Weaker by the year: on the elections in Turkey and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Mr. Erdogan’s party also dominated in the earthquake-hit region, winning 10 out of 11 provinces in an area that has traditionally supported the president. Mr. Erdogan came in ahead in the presidential race in eight of those provinces.

As in previous elections, Mr. Erdogan used state resources and his control of the media to reach voters.

Following the May 14 vote, international observers also pointed to the criminalization of dissemination of false information and online censorship as evidence that Mr. Erdogan had an “unjustified advantage.” The observers also said the elections showed the resilience of Turkish democracy.

Mr. Erdogan and pro-government media portrayed Mr. Kilicdaroglu, who had received the backing of the country’s pro-Kurdish party, as colluding with “terrorists” and of supporting what they described as “deviant” LGBTQ rights.

Mr. Kilicdaroglu “receives his orders from Qandil,” Mr. Erdogan repeatedly said at recent campaign rallies, a reference to the mountains in Iraq where the leadership of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, is based.

“We receive our orders from God and the people,” he said.

The election was being held as the country marked the 100th anniversary of its establishment as a republic, following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.

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Turkish voters weigh final decision on next President, visions for future

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Two opposing visions for Turkey’s future are on the ballot when voters return to the polls May 28 for a runoff Presidential election that will decide between an increasingly authoritarian incumbent and a challenger who has pledged to restore democracy.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a populist and polarizing leader who has ruled Turkey for 20 years, is well positioned to win after falling just short of victory in the first round of balloting on May 14. He was the top finisher even as the country reels from sky-high inflation and the effects of a devastating earthquake in February.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of Turkey’s pro-secular main opposition party and a six-party alliance, has campaigned on a promise to undo Mr. Erdogan’s authoritarian tilt. The 74-year-old former bureaucrat has described the runoff as a referendum on the direction of the strategically located NATO country, which is at the crossroads of Europe and Asia and has a key say over the alliance’s expansion.

“This is an existential struggle. Turkey will either be dragged into darkness or light,” Mr. Kilicdaroglu said. “This is more than an election. It has turned into a referendum.”

In a bid to sway nationalist voters ahead of Sunday’s runoff, the normally soft-mannered Mr. Kilicdaroglu (pronounced KEH-lich-DAHR-OH-loo) shifted gear and hardened his stance, vowing to send back millions of refugees if he is elected and rejecting any possibility of peace negotiations with Kurdish militants.

The social democrat had previously said he planned to repatriate Syrians within two years, after establishing economic and safety conditions conducive to their return.

He has also repeatedly called on 8 million people who stayed away from the polls in the first round to cast votes in the make-or-break runoff.

Mr. Erdogan scored 49.5% of the vote in the first round. Kilicdaroglu received 44.9%.

At 69, Mr. Erdogan is already Turkey’s longest-serving leader, having ruled over the country as prime minister since 2003 and as president since 2014. He could remain in power until 2028 if reelected.

Under Mr. Erdogan, Turkey has proven to be an indispensable and sometimes troublesome NATO ally.

It vetoed Sweden’s bid to join the alliance and purchased Russian missile-defense systems, which prompted the United States to oust Turkey from a U.S.-led fighter-jet project. Yet together with the U.N., Turkey also brokered a vital deal that allowed Ukraine to ship grain through the Black Sea to parts of the world struggling with hunger.

This week, Mr. Erdogan received the endorsement of the nationalist third-place candidate, Sinan Ogan, who garnered 5.2% of the vote. The move was seen as a boost for Mr. Erdogan even though Mr. Ogan’s supporters are not a monolithic bloc and not all of his votes are expected to go to Mr. Erdogan.

Mr. Erdogan’s nationalist-Islamist alliance also retained its hold on parliament in legislative elections two weeks ago, further increasing his chances for reelection as many voters are likely to want to avoid a split government.

Also Read: Weaker by the year: on the elections in Turkey and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

On Wednesday, the leader of a hard-line anti-migrant party that had backed Mr. Ogan threw its weight behind Mr. Kilicdaroglu after the two signed a protocol pledging to send back millions of migrants and refugees within the year.

Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s chances of turning the vote around in his favor appear to be slim but could hinge on the opposition’s ability to mobilize voters who did not cast ballots in the first round.

“It’s not possible to say that the odds are favoring him, but nevertheless, technically, he stands a chance,” said professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.

If the opposition can reach the voters who previously stayed home, “it may be a different story.”

In Istanbul, 45-year-old Serra Ural accused Mr. Erdogan of mishandling the economy and said she would vote for Mr. Kilicdaroglu.

She also expressed concerns over the rights of women after Mr. Erdogan extended his alliance to include Huda-Par, a hard-line Kurdish Islamist political party with alleged links to a group that was responsible for a series of gruesome killings in the 1990s. The party wants to abolish mixed-gender education, advocates for the criminalization of adultery and says women should prioritize their homes over work.

“We don’t know what will happen to women tomorrow or the next day, what condition they’ll be in,” she said. “To be honest Huda-Par scares us, especially women.”

Mehmet Nergis, 29, said he would vote for Mr. Erdogan for stability.

Mr. Erdogan “is the guarantee for a more stable future,” Mr. Nergis said. “Everyone around the world has already seen how far he has brought Turkey.”

He dismissed the country’s economic woes and expressed confidence that Mr. Erdogan would make improvements.

Mr. Erdogan’s campaign has focused on rebuilding areas that were devastated by the earthquake, which leveled cities and left more 50,000 dead in Turkey. He has promised to build 319,000 homes within the year.

Also Read: Turkey’s opposition denounces fairness of vote under Erdogan

In the Parliamentary election, Mr. Erdogan’s alliance won 10 out 11 provinces in the region affected by the quake despite criticism that his government’s initial disaster response was slow.

“Yes, there was a delay, but the roads were blocked,” said Yasar Sunulu, an Mr. Erdogan supporter in Kahramanmaras, the quake’s epicenter. “We cannot complain about the state — It gave us food, bread and whatever else needed.”

He and his family members are staying in a tent after their house was destroyed.

Nursel Karci, a mother of four living in the same camp, said she too would vote for Mr. Erdogan.

Mr. Erdogan “did all that I couldn’t,” she said. “He clothed my children where I couldn’t clothe them. He fed them where I couldn’t — Not a penny left my pocket.”

Mr. Erdogan has repeatedly portrayed Mr. Kilicdaroglu as colluding with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, after the opposition party leader received the backing of the country’s pro-Kurdish party.

During a rally in Istanbul, Mr. Erdogan broadcast a faked video purporting to show a PKK commander singing the opposition’s campaign song to hundreds of thousands of his supporters. On Monday, Mr. Erdogan doubled down on the narrative, insisting that the PKK has thrown its support to Mr. Kilicdaroglu whether the video is “faked or not.”

“Most analysts failed to gauge the impact of Mr. Erdogan’s campaign against Mr. Kilicdaroglu,” Guvenc said. “This obviously did strike a chord with the average nationalist-religious electorate in Turkey.”

“Politics today is about building and sustaining a narrative which shadows the reality,” he added. “Mr. Erdogan and his people are very successful in building narratives that eclipse realities.”

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