Tag: Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

‘No amateur’: Identity politics, media crackdown help propel Erdogan to victory

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President Recep Tayyip Erdogan defeated opposition challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Sunday’s Turkish presidential election runoff – a victory analysts ascribe to Erdogan’s focus on identity issues and use of the government’s resources, as well as Kilicdaroglu’s tepid leadership of a precarious coalition. 

The first round was a shock to many Western observers who thought they might finally see the back of Erdogan. But after the Turkish president came within a whisker of re-election in that ballot, his second-round victory surprised no one. He defeated opposition challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu with 52.1 percent of the vote.

“I will be here until I’m in the grave,” Erdogan said as he addressed jubilant supporters from an open-top bus in Istanbul.

These polls belied the Western cliché that elections are about “the economy, stupid”. Along with his much-criticised response to February’s devastating earthquakes, Turkey’s economic woes looked like a big weakness for Erdogan at the outset of the campaign.

While growth remains robust, five years of an inflation and currency crisis has seen the cost of living soar for many Turks – a major reversal after the abundant economic gains after Erdogan first took power in 2003. Experts blame this crisis on Erdogan’s unorthodox belief that cutting interest rates helps reduce inflation while all mainstream economic theories hold that higher interest rates are required to calm rampant inflation in an economy.

Identity politics

But culture war has been at the heart of Turkish politics ever since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk made the country a modern nation-state in 1923, introducing strict secularism as he transformed Turkey along Westernising lines. Erdogan’s traditional constituency of socially conservative Muslim voters in the Anatolian heartland have always seen him as their champion in this culture war. A gifted orator and political strategist, Erdogan has already gone down in history as the leader who smashed secular Kemalism’s long hegemony over Turkish politics.

“Erdogan won primarily because he was once again able to shift the focus from socio-economic issues to identity issues,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Ankara bureau.

>> Read more: Turkey’s undefeated Erdogan enters third decade of rule

Erdogan also instrumentalised Turkey’s long fight against Kurdish militant group the PKK, which has waged a guerrilla war against the Turkish state punctuated by ceasefires since 1984 and is classified as a terrorist group by the EU and the US as well as Turkey.

Kilicdaroglu won the support of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP). Erdogan then accused the opposition of having links to terrorism, saying opposition leaders went into “dark rooms to sit and bargain” with militants.

“He was particularly successful in directing the anger of Turkish society towards the PKK [against] the opposition,” Unluhisarcikli noted.

Meanwhile, Kilicdaroglu’s big-tent approach was always going to be a tremendous challenge. The opposition contender had to juggle the Nation Alliance – the heterogenous six-party coalition behind his candidacy, which included the nationalist Good Party – with the HDP’s endorsement of his candidacy.

>> Read more: Turkey’s Kurdish areas serve as petri dish for illiberal democracy test

After Kilicdaroglu’s disappointing first-round performance, he won the support of the nationalist Victory Party’s Umit Ozdag and adopted his hard line on the Kurdish issue – which evidently risked alienating the millions of Kurdish voters Kilicdaroglu needed.

“The diversity of the opposition alliance was both an advantage and a disadvantage,” Unluhisarcikli observed. “It was an advantage because it made it possible for Kilicdaroglu to address a wider audience. It was a disadvantage because it led to an image of dysfunctionality. Moreover, while most voters could find an element they could identify with in the opposition alliance, they could also find one that they could not tolerate.”

When he was performing well in opinion polls ahead of the first round, Kilicdaroglu’s unassuming, professorial demeanour looked like a potential boon after two decades of Erdogan’s often mercurial style. But in reality Kilicdaroglu’s image was that of a “lacklustre candidate” backed by a “wobbly coalition”, said Howard Eissenstat, a Turkey specialist at St. Lawrence University and the Middle East Institute in Washington DC.

‘Authoritarian reasons’

Beyond the issues and personalities, Erdogan was able to mobilise resources surpassing the typical advantages of incumbency. He made lavish offers to voters using the state’s largesse, notably promising discounted gas bills for a year. Erdogan’s presidential power was helpful to his campaign in other ways, as the government controls 90% of the national media and has effectively curtailed the power of the independent press, seeing Turkey fall to 165 out of 180 in the World Press Freedom Index.

Highlighting restrictions on press freedom, observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe found during the campaign that the polls were “marked by an unlevel playing field” even if they were “still competitive”.

“There are electoral reasons why Erdogan won and there are authoritarian reasons why he won,” Eissenstat said, emphasising that both sides of this equation are crucial.

“Given Erdogan’s gross mismanagement of the economy, his electoral skills would mean little without the authoritarian components: his control of 90% of the media, his use of the courts to limit the opposition, his use of government resources to support his own campaign,” Eissenstat continued. “As the saying goes, ‘only amateurs try to steal elections on election day’: Erdogan is no amateur. Election day had some irregularities, but nothing wildly out of the ordinary. Erdogan controlled every aspect of how the election was [run] and that is the key explanation for why he won.”

>> Read more: Nationalism is ‘definitely a winner’ in Turkey’s presidential elections

All that said, Kilicdaroglu came closer to defeating Erdogan than any previous opposition standard-bearer. In the 2018 presidential elections many Western observers thought Muharrem Ince had a decent chance of winning. But Erdogan clinched re-election in the first round, despite a lively campaign from the candidate representing Kilicdaroglu’s Republican People’s Party.

“The second round was closer than I thought it would be,” Eissenstat said. “The opposition did very well given the limits it was working under, and the voter turnout was higher than I expected.”

“I am in Turkey right now and my sense from conversations before the run-off [was] that opposition voters were demoralised and that many would stay home,” Eissenstat continued. “In the event, the Turkish electorate’s belief in the moral importance of voting trumped their hopelessness. The exception was the Kurdish vote, which clearly was dampened by Kilicdaroglu’s swerve to the right in the second round.”

Potential successors?

But there is no mistaking the sense of jubilation among Erdogan and his supporters as he enters his third decade in power. This year is symbolic, too, as Turkey is marking a century since Ataturk made it a nation-state.

Beneath the congratulations pouring in from Washington to Moscow, there is a clear divide between the perspectives of Western governments and those of Turkey’s geopolitical partners, pre-eminently Russia. After the Western commentariat hailed Erdogan as a reformer in the 2000s, their attitudes soured during the following decade, as he ramped up an assertive foreign policy amid his turn towards illiberal democracy at home.

>> Read more: How the West, Russia see Turkey’s presidential elections

Yet the West’s most pressing geopolitical priority, the war in Ukraine, demonstrates that Turkey is both troublesome to the Western alliance (as shown by Ankara blocking Sweden’s NATO accession) and a valuable partner (as shown by Ankara brokering Ukraine’s Black Sea grain export deal). 

Russia will “celebrate” Erdogan’s victory as Moscow sees his “transactionalism as convenient” – while “for the West, he will continue to be a challenge, but they will try to make the best of it”, Eissenstat said. “They won’t be happy, but in the end, they want to work with Turkey and Erdogan is its president.”

On foreign and domestic policy alike, Eissenstat expects Erdogan is unlikely to make any major changes during this new presidential term.

“He will likely make some half-hearted nods at a reset with some Western powers and with the markets to try to help stabilise the economy, but I think the general trajectory of his rule is set,” Eissenstat said. “I don’t expect him to become wildly more repressive and I certainly don’t expect him to liberalise.”   

Nevertheless, both analysts foresee one key difference in the 69-year-old Erdogan’s third term: he’s likely to hand-pick his political successor.

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Voters in Turkey return to polls to decide on opposing Presidential visions

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Voters in Turkey returned to the polls on May 28 to decide whether the country’s longtime leader stretches his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade or is unseated by a challenger who has promised to restore a more democratic society.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been at Turkey’s helm for 20 years, is favoured to win a new five-year term in the second-round runoff after coming just short of an outright victory in the first round on May 14.

The divisive populist who turned his country into a geopolitical player finished 4% points ahead of Mr. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of a six-party alliance and leader of Turkey’s centre-left main opposition party. Mr. Erdogan’s performance came despite crippling inflation and the effects of a devastating earthquake three months ago.

Kilicdaroglu (pronounced KEH-lich-DAHR-OH-loo), a 74-year-old former bureaucrat, has described the runoff as a referendum on the country’s future.

More than 64 million people are eligible to cast ballots. The polls opened at 8 a.m.

Turkey does not have exit polls, but the preliminary results are expected to come within hours of the polls closing at 5 p.m.

The final decision could have implications far beyond Ankara because Turkey stands at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, and it plays a key role in NATO.

Turkey vetoed Sweden’s bid to join the alliance and purchased Russian missile-defense systems, which prompted the United States to oust Turkey from a U.S.-led fighter-jet project. But Erdogan’s government also helped broker a crucial deal that allowed Ukrainian grain shipments and averted a global food crisis.

The May 14 election saw 87% turnout, and strong participation is expected again on May 28, reflecting voters’ devotion to elections in a country where freedom of expression and assembly have been suppressed.

If he wins, Mr. Erdogan, 69, could remain in power until 2028. After three stints as Prime Minister and two as President, the devout Muslim who heads the conservative and religious Justice and Development Party, or AKP, is already Turkey’s longest-serving leader.

The first half of Mr. Erdogan’s tenure included reforms that allowed the country to begin talks to join the European Union and economic growth that lifted many out of poverty. But he later moved to suppress freedoms and the media and concentrated more power in his hands, especially after a failed coup attempt that Turkey says was orchestrated by the U.S.-based Islamic cleric Mr. Fethullah Gulen. The cleric denies involvement.

Mr. Erdogan transformed the presidency from a largely ceremonial role to a powerful office through a narrowly won 2017 referendum that scrapped Turkey’s parliamentary system of governance. He was the first directly elected president in 2014 and won the 2018 election that ushered in the executive presidency.

The May 14 election was the first that Mr. Erdogan did not win outright.

Critics blame Mr. Erdogan’s unconventional economic policies for skyrocketing inflation that has fueled a cost-of-living crisis. Many also faulted his government for the slow response to the earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey.

Still, Mr. Erdogan has retained the backing of conservative voters who remain devoted to him for lifting Islam’s profile in the country that was founded on secular principles and for raising the country’s influence in world politics.

In a bid to woo voters hit hard by inflation, he has increased wages and pensions and subsidized electricity and gas bills, while showcasing Turkey’s homegrown defence industry and infrastructure projects. He also centred his reelection campaign on a promise to rebuild quake-stricken areas, including constructing 319,000 homes within the year. Many see him as a source of stability.

Mr. Kilicdaroglu is a soft-mannered former civil servant who has led the pro-secular Republican People’s Party, or CHP, since 2010. He campaigned on a promise to reverse Mr. Erdogan’s democratic backsliding, restore the economy by reverting to more conventional policies and to improve ties with the West.

In a frantic do-or-die effort to reach out to nationalist voters in the runoff, Mr. Kilicdaroglu vowed to send back refugees and ruled out any peace negotiations with Kurdish militants if he is elected.

Many in Turkey regard Syrian refugees who have been under Turkey’s temporary protection after fleeing the war in neighboring Syria as a burden on the country, and their repatriation became a key issue in the election.

Earlier in the week, Mr. Erdogan received the endorsement of third-place candidate, nationalist politician Sinan Ogan, who garnered 5.2% of the votes and is no longer in the race. Meanwhile, a staunchly anti-migrant party that had supported Ogan’s candidacy, announced it would back Mr. Kilicdaroglu.

A defeat for Mr. Kilicdaroglu would add to a long list of electoral losses to Mr. Erdogan and put pressure for him to step down as party chairman.

Mr. Erdogan’s AKP party and its allies retained a majority of seats in parliament following a legislative election that was also held on May 14. Parliamentary elections will not be repeated on May 28.

Editorial | Weaker by the year: on the elections in Turkey and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Mr. Erdogan’s party also dominated in the earthquake-hit region, winning 10 out of 11 provinces in an area that has traditionally supported the president. Mr. Erdogan came in ahead in the presidential race in eight of those provinces.

As in previous elections, Mr. Erdogan used state resources and his control of the media to reach voters.

Following the May 14 vote, international observers also pointed to the criminalization of dissemination of false information and online censorship as evidence that Mr. Erdogan had an “unjustified advantage.” The observers also said the elections showed the resilience of Turkish democracy.

Mr. Erdogan and pro-government media portrayed Mr. Kilicdaroglu, who had received the backing of the country’s pro-Kurdish party, as colluding with “terrorists” and of supporting what they described as “deviant” LGBTQ rights.

Mr. Kilicdaroglu “receives his orders from Qandil,” Mr. Erdogan repeatedly said at recent campaign rallies, a reference to the mountains in Iraq where the leadership of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, is based.

“We receive our orders from God and the people,” he said.

The election was being held as the country marked the 100th anniversary of its establishment as a republic, following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.

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Symbolism, history and nationalism put Erdogan in strong position ahead of presidential runoff

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Emotion trumped economics in the 2023 Turkish presidential campaign, forcing the opposition to embrace nationalism ahead of Sunday’s runoff. But President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was ahead of the curve, using a mix of nationalist rhetoric, pan-Islamic heroism and historical references in a bid to enter his third decade in power.

A battle for auditory supremacy is raging at the Kadikoy ferry terminal, where boats plying the Bosporus Strait shuttle passengers from Istanbul’s Asian and European sides.

On a giant screen mounted on a truck right by the waterway, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the opposition candidate in Turkey’s 2023 presidential runoff, is promising to deal with all the problems plaguing the country today. The economy is in shambles, rights and liberties have been shrunk, and the “politics of negativity” has divided the nation, he booms.

 

Commuters watch a Kemal Kilicdaroglu campaign clip at the Kadikoy ferry port in Istanbul. © Leela Jacinto, FRANCE 24

 

A few yards away, the ruling AKP (Justice and Development Party) stall is selling their candidate, the incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at top volume. The loudspeakers here are belting out a vibrant, catchy campaign tune. “Once more, and again…choose Recep Tayyip Erdogan,” blasts the sound system as flag-waving supporters keep the beat with their arms.

 

Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan man a campaign stall at the Kadikoy ferry wharf in Istanbul.
Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan man a campaign stall at the Kadikoy ferry wharf in Istanbul. © Leela Jacinto, FRANCE 24

 

This city bridging two continents is deeply divided over the two men contesting Turkey’s first-ever presidential runoff on Sunday, May 28. The electoral face-off comes two weeks after the first round handed Erdogan just 0.5 percent less than the 50 percent of the vote needed for an outright win.

It was a surprisingly strong showing for the man who has led Turkey for two decades, overseeing the recent economic crisis and weathering criticisms of governmental negligence following devastating earthquakes earlier this year.

The opposition focused on Turkish wallets, following the familiar US campaign dictum, “It’s the economy, stupid”.

But it wasn’t. In the end, emotions trounced economics.

Kilicdaroglu’s signature campaign video featured the septuagenarian candidate bemoaning the rising price of onions at a kitchen table.

The high point of the incumbent’s campaign saw the president instrumentalising the inauguration of a warship, the TGC Anadolu, at an Istanbul port. “We see this ship as a symbol that will reinforce our position as an assertive country in the world,” Erdogan proclaimed at the inauguration ceremony on April 23.

Symbolism has been the driving force behind Erdogan’s stratospheric rise to power and his ability to retain it despite the odds. His melding of nationalist rhetoric, pan-Islamic heroism, religious tropes and historical references presents a populist package that has flattened political opponents in the past and looks set to do so again.

And to do that, Erdogan always has Istanbul.

Harnessing Istanbul’s rich history 

It was as Istanbul’s mayor that Erdogan referenced a banned poem by an Ottoman-era Turkish nationalist, earning him a short stint in jail and a victim narrative that galvanised his supporters.

More than a quarter-century later, Erdogan faces his first presidential runoff on a date weighted with a historical significance not lost on Turks.

On May 28, 1453 Sultan Mehmet II commenced his final attack on Constantinople, breaching the Byzantine capital’s mighty walls. The next day, the city of the world’s desire, which had been unconquered for a thousand years, fell under Ottoman control.

If Erdogan wins the runoff on Sunday May 28, the president will be in Istanbul the day after the election, according to the presidential office. It will mark the 570th anniversary of the conquest of Constantinople.

‘I prefer a courageous leader’

In the city that birthed Erdogan’s political career, Istanbullus – as residents call themselves – are already beginning to act as if an Erdogan reelection is a done deal just days before Sunday’s vote.

For those suffering the effects of the economic crisis, but plan to vote for Erdogan anyway, there’s a distinct lack of excitement, but some comfort in continuity.

Sitting on a park bench in Fatih, a conservative Istanbul district by the Bosporus, Hussein Polat sounded resigned over the country’s future.

“I was upset, really depressed about my financial situation and I didn’t want to vote in the first round. But in the end I did vote, and I voted for Erdogan,” said Polat as he tossed a handful of wheat grains to a growing flock of pigeons.

At 64, Polat’s economic prospects look bleak after working nearly 50 years in a shoe repair store and a tea stall.  “I can hardly make ends meet, the prices of even the basics have shot up. Nobody wants to give me job now that I’m 64. Life is so difficult these days,” he said.

 

Hussein Polat takes a break from feeding pigeons at a park in Fatih, Istanbul.
Hussein Polat takes a break from feeding pigeons at a park in Fatih, Istanbul. © Leela Jacinto, FRANCE 24

 

Despite his economic difficulties, Polat did not opt for change at the ballot box because he said he didn’t know much about Kilicdaroglu’s policy platform.

“I really didn’t get a sense of the other guy,” said Polat, referring to Kilicdaroglu.

It’s a common admission among older Turkish voters who get most of their news from TV stations following years of clampdowns on the press by the Erdogan administration.

During the month of April, Erdogan had exactly 60 times more coverage on the public TV channel TRT Haber (TRT News) than his main challenger, according to the Paris-based Reporters Sans Frontier (RSF). Kilicdaroglu received 32 minutes, said RSF, quoting unnamed sources within Turkey’s High Council for Broadcasting (RTUK). “In other words, a public TV channel not only acted as a state TV channel but also sided with one candidate against another,” the NGO reported.

Despite his professed lack of awareness of Kilicdaroglu’s platform, Polat said he was convinced that Erdogan possessed more leadership skills than his rival. “Erdogan has more courage than Kilicdaroglu. I don’t believe in Kilicdaroglu’s promises. I prefer a courageous leader who is trustworthy. With Erdogan, even if we have difficulties with him, he has built bridges and mosques. I’m a nationalist, and I’ll vote for the man who’s good for the nation,” insisted Polat.

On a ferry ride from Istanbul’s European side to Kadikoy, on the Asian side, Ahmet Alton, a retired civil servant, said he benefitted from Erdogan’s decision to increase pensions by 2,000 liras ($100) in late March.

“The opposition is not trustworthy,” said Alton. “They can make all the promises they like. I don’t believe they can keep them,” he concluded.

Men, women and veils again

While Erdogan’s supporters felt free to voice their distrust of the opposition, the same was not true for many Kilicdaroglu supporters.

Sitting on a bench, watching the sun set as she waited for the ferry, a 30-year-old architect from Istanbul’s Uskudar district agreed to talk only if her identity was not revealed and her name changed to Zeinab Bilgin.

“I support Kilicdaroglu, but if I reveal it publicly, and if Erdogan wins, and I apply for a job and they do a background check, they will know I’m a CHP supporter. Then I’ll have problems getting jobs,” she said, referring to Kilicdaroglu’s secular opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP).

The main electoral issue for Bilgin is women’s rights following the shock win in the May 14 parliamentary elections for the Kurdish conservative Free Cause Party (Huda-Par).

Once a fringe party sidelined for its links to a Kurdish Islamist armed group operating in the 1990s, Huda-Par aligned with the ruling AKP in the 2023 vote. The alliance won the party four seats in Turkey’s 600-member parliament, alarming women’s rights activists.

The Islamist party has called for the repealing of laws providing protection for domestic violence victims and has said women’s working conditions should be revised so that they “befit their nature”. 

For Bilgin, the rise of parties such as Huda-Par would mean a rollback of women’s rights in Turkey. “In the West, people are talking about AI and ChatGPT. In Turkey, we’re still talking about the headscarf and religion and 1453,” she said, referring to the year Constantinople was conquered.

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Turkish voters weigh final decision on next President, visions for future

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Two opposing visions for Turkey’s future are on the ballot when voters return to the polls May 28 for a runoff Presidential election that will decide between an increasingly authoritarian incumbent and a challenger who has pledged to restore democracy.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a populist and polarizing leader who has ruled Turkey for 20 years, is well positioned to win after falling just short of victory in the first round of balloting on May 14. He was the top finisher even as the country reels from sky-high inflation and the effects of a devastating earthquake in February.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of Turkey’s pro-secular main opposition party and a six-party alliance, has campaigned on a promise to undo Mr. Erdogan’s authoritarian tilt. The 74-year-old former bureaucrat has described the runoff as a referendum on the direction of the strategically located NATO country, which is at the crossroads of Europe and Asia and has a key say over the alliance’s expansion.

“This is an existential struggle. Turkey will either be dragged into darkness or light,” Mr. Kilicdaroglu said. “This is more than an election. It has turned into a referendum.”

In a bid to sway nationalist voters ahead of Sunday’s runoff, the normally soft-mannered Mr. Kilicdaroglu (pronounced KEH-lich-DAHR-OH-loo) shifted gear and hardened his stance, vowing to send back millions of refugees if he is elected and rejecting any possibility of peace negotiations with Kurdish militants.

The social democrat had previously said he planned to repatriate Syrians within two years, after establishing economic and safety conditions conducive to their return.

He has also repeatedly called on 8 million people who stayed away from the polls in the first round to cast votes in the make-or-break runoff.

Mr. Erdogan scored 49.5% of the vote in the first round. Kilicdaroglu received 44.9%.

At 69, Mr. Erdogan is already Turkey’s longest-serving leader, having ruled over the country as prime minister since 2003 and as president since 2014. He could remain in power until 2028 if reelected.

Under Mr. Erdogan, Turkey has proven to be an indispensable and sometimes troublesome NATO ally.

It vetoed Sweden’s bid to join the alliance and purchased Russian missile-defense systems, which prompted the United States to oust Turkey from a U.S.-led fighter-jet project. Yet together with the U.N., Turkey also brokered a vital deal that allowed Ukraine to ship grain through the Black Sea to parts of the world struggling with hunger.

This week, Mr. Erdogan received the endorsement of the nationalist third-place candidate, Sinan Ogan, who garnered 5.2% of the vote. The move was seen as a boost for Mr. Erdogan even though Mr. Ogan’s supporters are not a monolithic bloc and not all of his votes are expected to go to Mr. Erdogan.

Mr. Erdogan’s nationalist-Islamist alliance also retained its hold on parliament in legislative elections two weeks ago, further increasing his chances for reelection as many voters are likely to want to avoid a split government.

Also Read: Weaker by the year: on the elections in Turkey and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

On Wednesday, the leader of a hard-line anti-migrant party that had backed Mr. Ogan threw its weight behind Mr. Kilicdaroglu after the two signed a protocol pledging to send back millions of migrants and refugees within the year.

Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s chances of turning the vote around in his favor appear to be slim but could hinge on the opposition’s ability to mobilize voters who did not cast ballots in the first round.

“It’s not possible to say that the odds are favoring him, but nevertheless, technically, he stands a chance,” said professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.

If the opposition can reach the voters who previously stayed home, “it may be a different story.”

In Istanbul, 45-year-old Serra Ural accused Mr. Erdogan of mishandling the economy and said she would vote for Mr. Kilicdaroglu.

She also expressed concerns over the rights of women after Mr. Erdogan extended his alliance to include Huda-Par, a hard-line Kurdish Islamist political party with alleged links to a group that was responsible for a series of gruesome killings in the 1990s. The party wants to abolish mixed-gender education, advocates for the criminalization of adultery and says women should prioritize their homes over work.

“We don’t know what will happen to women tomorrow or the next day, what condition they’ll be in,” she said. “To be honest Huda-Par scares us, especially women.”

Mehmet Nergis, 29, said he would vote for Mr. Erdogan for stability.

Mr. Erdogan “is the guarantee for a more stable future,” Mr. Nergis said. “Everyone around the world has already seen how far he has brought Turkey.”

He dismissed the country’s economic woes and expressed confidence that Mr. Erdogan would make improvements.

Mr. Erdogan’s campaign has focused on rebuilding areas that were devastated by the earthquake, which leveled cities and left more 50,000 dead in Turkey. He has promised to build 319,000 homes within the year.

Also Read: Turkey’s opposition denounces fairness of vote under Erdogan

In the Parliamentary election, Mr. Erdogan’s alliance won 10 out 11 provinces in the region affected by the quake despite criticism that his government’s initial disaster response was slow.

“Yes, there was a delay, but the roads were blocked,” said Yasar Sunulu, an Mr. Erdogan supporter in Kahramanmaras, the quake’s epicenter. “We cannot complain about the state — It gave us food, bread and whatever else needed.”

He and his family members are staying in a tent after their house was destroyed.

Nursel Karci, a mother of four living in the same camp, said she too would vote for Mr. Erdogan.

Mr. Erdogan “did all that I couldn’t,” she said. “He clothed my children where I couldn’t clothe them. He fed them where I couldn’t — Not a penny left my pocket.”

Mr. Erdogan has repeatedly portrayed Mr. Kilicdaroglu as colluding with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, after the opposition party leader received the backing of the country’s pro-Kurdish party.

During a rally in Istanbul, Mr. Erdogan broadcast a faked video purporting to show a PKK commander singing the opposition’s campaign song to hundreds of thousands of his supporters. On Monday, Mr. Erdogan doubled down on the narrative, insisting that the PKK has thrown its support to Mr. Kilicdaroglu whether the video is “faked or not.”

“Most analysts failed to gauge the impact of Mr. Erdogan’s campaign against Mr. Kilicdaroglu,” Guvenc said. “This obviously did strike a chord with the average nationalist-religious electorate in Turkey.”

“Politics today is about building and sustaining a narrative which shadows the reality,” he added. “Mr. Erdogan and his people are very successful in building narratives that eclipse realities.”

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Turkish century: History looms large on election day

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ISTANBUL — From the Aegean coast to the mountainous frontier with Iran, millions of Turks are voting at the country’s 191,884 ballot boxes on Sunday — with both President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his main rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu warning the country is at a historical turning point.

In the last sprints of the nail-bitingly close election race, the dueling candidates have both placed heavy emphasis on the historical resonance of the vote falling exactly 100 years after the foundation of the secular Turkish republic by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in 1923.

In the Istanbul district of Ümraniye on the final day of campaigning, Erdoğan told voters the country was on “the threshold of a Turkish century” that will be the “century of our children, our youth, our women.”

Erdoğan’s talk of a Turkish century is partly a pledge to make the country stronger and more technologically independent, particularly in the defense sector. Over the past months, the president has been quick to associate himself with the domestically-manufactured Togg electric car, the “Kaan” fighter jet and Anadolu, the country’s first aircraft carrier.

But Erdoğan’s Turkish century is about more than home-grown planes and ships. Few people doubt the president sees 2023 as a key threshold to accelerate his push away from Atatürk’s secular legacy and toward a more religiously conservative nation. Indeed, his campaign has been characterized by a heavy emphasis on family values and bitter rhetoric against the LGBTQ+ community. Unsurprisingly, he wrapped up his campaign on Saturday night in Hagia Sophia — once Constantinople’s greatest church — which he contentiously reconverted from a museum back into a mosque, as it had been in Ottoman times.    

The state that Atatürk forged from the ashes of the Ottoman empire in 1923 was secular and modernizing, often along Western models, with the introduction of Latin letters and even the banning of the fez in favor of Western-style hats. In this regard, the Islamist populist Erdoğan is a world away from the ballroom-dancing, rakı-quaffing field marshal Atatürk.

The 2023 election is widely being cast as a decisive referendum on which vision for Turkey will win through, and Erdoğan has been keen to portray the opposition as sell-outs to the West and global financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund. “Are you ready to bury at the ballot box those who promised to give over the country’s values ​​to foreigners and loan sharks?” he called out to the crowd in Ümraniye.

This is not a man who is casting himself as the West’s ally. Resisting pressure that Ankara should not cozy up so much to the Kremlin, Erdoğan snapped on Friday that he would “not accept” the opposition’s attacks on Russian President Vladimir Putin — after Kılıçdaroğlu complained of Russian meddling in the election.   

All about Atatürk

By contrast, Erdogan’s main rival Kılıçdaroğlu is trying to assume the full mantle of Atatürk, and is stressing the need to put the country back on the path toward European democratic norms after Erdoğan’s lurch toward authoritarianism. While Erdoğan ended his campaign in the great mosque of Hagia Sophia, Kılıçdaroğlu did so by laying flowers at Atatürk’s mausoleum.

Speaking from a rain-swept stage in Ankara on Friday night, the 74-year-old bureaucrat declared: “We will make all of Turkey Mustafa Kemal’s [Atatürk’s] Turkey!”

In his speech, he slammed Erdoğan for giving Turkey over to drug runners and crony networks of oligarch construction bosses, saying the country had no place for “robbers.” Symbolically, he chided the president for ruling from his 1,150-room presidential complex — dubbed the Saray or palace — and said that he would rule from the more modest Çankaya mansion that Atatürk used for his presidency.

Warming to his theme of Turkey’s “second century,” Kılıçdaroğlu posted a video in the early hours of Saturday morning, urging young people to fully embrace the founding father’s vision. After all, he hails from the CHP party that Atatürk founded.

“We are entering the second century, young ones. And now we have a new generation, we have you. We have to decide altogether: Will we be among those who only commemorate Atatürk — like in the first century — or those who understand him in this century? This generation will be of those who understand,” he said, speaking in his trademark grandfatherly tone from his book-lined study.

At least in the upscale neighborhood of Beşiktaş, on Saturday night, all the talk of Atatürk was no dry history lesson. Over their final beers — before an alcohol sale ban comes in force over election day — young Turks punched the air and chanted along with a stirring anthem: “Long Live Mustafa Kemal Pasha, long may he live.”

In diametric opposition to Erdoğan, who has detained opponents and exerts heavy influence over the judiciary and the media, Kılıçdaroğlu is insisting that he will push Turkey to adopt the kind of reforms needed to move toward EU membership.

When asked by POLITICO whether that could backfire because some hostile EU countries would always block Turkish membership, he said the reforms themselves were the most important element for Turkey’s future.

“It does not matter whether the EU takes us in or not. What matters is bringing all the democratic standards that the EU foresees to our country,” he said in an exclusive interview on the sidelines of a rally in the central city of Sivas. “We are part of Western civilization. So the EU may accept us or not, but we will bring those democratic standards. The EU needs Turkey.”

Off to the polls

Polling stations — which are set up in schools — open at 8 a.m. on election day and close at 5 p.m. At 9 p.m. media can start reporting, and unofficial results are expected to start trickling in around midnight.

The mood is cautious, with rumors swirling that internet use could be restricted or there could be trouble on the streets if there are disputes over the result.

The fears of some kind of trouble have only grown after reports of potential military or governmental involvement in the voting process.

Two days before the election, the CHP accused Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu of preparing election manipulation. The main opposition party said Soylu had called on governors to seek army support on election night. Soylu made no public response.  

Turkey’s Supreme Election Council (YSK) has rejected the interior ministry’s request to collect and store election results on its own database. The YSK also banned the police and gendarmerie from collecting election results. 

Erdoğan himself sought to downplay any fears of a stolen election. In front of a studio audience of young people on Friday, he dismissed as “ridiculous” the suggestion that he might not leave office if he lost. “We came to power in Turkey by democratic means and by the courtesy of people. If they make a different decision whatever the democracy requires we will do it,” said the president, looking unusually gaunt, perhaps still knocked back by what his party said was a bout of gastroenteritis during the campaign.

The opposition is vowing to keep close tabs on all of the polling stations to try to prevent any fraud.

In Esenyurt Cumhuriyet Square, in the European part of Istanbul, a group of high-school students gathered on Saturday morning to greet Ekrem İmamoğlu, the popular mayor of Istanbul, who would be one of Kılıçdaroğlu’s vice presidents if he were to win.

Ilayda, 18, said she would vote for the opposition because of its position on democracy, justice and women’s rights.

When asked what would happen if Erdoğan won, she replied: “We plan to start a deep mourning. Our country as we know it will not be there anymore.”



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Turkey’s political rivalries play out in unexpected places

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With overseas voting taking place for the first time this year in the three Baltic States, Turkey’s political tensions are playing out along starkly familiar lines.

“In an ideal world, we would be able to trust the Turkish government,” said Onur Can Varoğlu. “But we need to make sure the votes being counted in Lithuania end up in Ankara.”

“Anything can happen if we don’t watch.”

The 27-year-old is part of a team of independent volunteers monitoring the vote of Turkish nationals in Lithuania, ahead of Turkey’s nationwide elections on 14 May.

He has volunteered in nearly eight elections, but these in the small Baltic state are special as it is the first time ballots have been set up here. Before, they had to travel to the Turkish border to cast their vote.

Arrested during the Gezi Park protests of 2013, Varoğlu said it was vital to protect the integrity of Turkey’s election, believing democratic freedoms had been eroded back home.

“We are pretty protective of our vote,” he told Euronews. “In Turkey, it is very difficult to protest and we saw how the Middle East went down after the Arab Spring movements.”

“We don’t have hope for a big social movement. Our only chance for change is at the ballot box.”

Turks have been given the opportunity to vote in Lithuania for the first time as their number has risen significantly in recent years, with nearly 2,000 now in the country.

But with the arrival of more Turkish people to the Baltic nation, came the arrival of their political rivalries too.

In Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, there are reportedly dedicated mosques and cultural centres for supporters of Erdoğan and those of the various opposition forces, such as Kurds and Gülenists, a political group once allied with the Turkish president. 

“These political tensions actually play out more abroad because people are freer to express their opinions and do activism,” says Varoğlu. “In Turkey, if you say or do anything too political you can end up in prison.”

Erdoğan has increasingly clamped down on dissent, bringing in controversial laws that criminalise “insulting the president” and “disinformation” on social media. 

These political rivalries could be traced back to the family, Varoğlu continued. “It doesn’t matter if you come to Europe. If you are from a nationalist, Islamist background or a more pro-European immigrant one, you bring these values with you.”

“Turkish politics is like football, you are born with your team and will support it no matter what.”

Why are Turkish people in Lithuania?

Over the past decade, Turkey’s economy has hit the rocks, with millions of Turks pushed to the brink by skyrocketing inflation and a collapsing currency.

In September 2021, one US dollar was worth 8 Turkish lira. Today it is 19.5.

These economic headwinds have profoundly impacted which Turks emigrate and where they go.

“The only people who stay in Turkey are those benefiting from the regime. If you are willing to sign up for their agenda and support the party, you will have a bright future. If you don’t want to sacrifice your values to get a good job, then you must leave,” said Varoğlu.

“It’s a given that this is the only way to have a bright future.”

Turkish immigrants in Lithuania tend to be younger, university educated and more supportive of the opposition, compared to the more established Turkish communities in other parts of mainland Europe. However, many still do back Erdoğan.

“Most Turks in hotspots Germany went as guest workers after World War Two. There was no plan to integrate them, so they built their own communities and are stuck in a Turkish fantasy,” said Varoğlu, suggesting this was one reason why diaspora there tended to support Erdoğan.

“But newer generations of immigrants in places like Lithuania are not like that. They’re more open and European.”

In the 2018 elections, 87% (2.63 million) of the Turkish voters registered abroad were residents of 19 EU Member States, the UK, Norway or Switzerland. Almost half of all expat voters in 2018 (47%) were living in Germany, which strongly supported Erdoğan in the last presidential election

One of these younger Turks who will play a pivotal role in the election is Merve Yılmaz.

The 20-something, who cast her vote at the Turkish embassy on Sunday, is studying a master’s at one of Lithuania’s most prestigious universities.

For Yılmaz, the vote couldn’t be more important. Not only was it her first time voting, she has also only ever known Erdoğan, and his AKP party, ruling over Turkey since 2001.

And she is not alone. Five million young people will vote in Turkish elections for the first time this time around, with their support seen as crucial for deciding who will win.

With his stripped-down social media videos, Erdoğan’s rival and leader of an opposition bloc, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, has attracted many young voters eager for change. But Erdoğan retains strong support, especially among conservative religious voters.

“To me, it is very clear who should be the next leader,” said Yılmaz. “He [Kılıçdaroğlu] is the only person who we can trust to help lift our country from the horrible situation it is in now.”

“We want change for a better future.”

‘Dictators don’t retire’

Erdoğan is facing the biggest threat to his two-decade rule yet. 

His support has taken a battering, with critics accusing him of steering the country towards authoritarianism, ruining the economy and mishandling the response to a devastating earthquake in February that killed more than 50,000 people.

In his defence, the 69-year-old has called the earthquake an act of god, maintaining it is impossible to prepare for such a catastrophic natural disaster on this scale.

Polls predict a neck-and-neck race between Erdoğan and his opponent, with the upcoming vote pitched as a seismic battle over Turkey’s destiny.

There have been widespread fears Erdoğan could not play fairly, while his supporters have threatened to reject the vote if he loses.

“We have a lot of insecurity towards elections being rigged,” said Varoğlu. “We had some bad experiences in the past, but we weren’t as well organised back then.”

After a 2017 referendum on whether to overhaul Turkey’s democracy and establish an executive presidency for Erdoğan – which he won – the opposition cried foul after rules were changed at the last minute to allow 2.5 million unstamped ballots to be included in the vote.

However, Varoğlu was more sure about what was at stake.

“Each candidate is promising two very different futures for Turkey. One of them is promising more restrictions on human rights, more wild nationalism and capitalism. The other is promising improved human rights and a return to European norms.”

“It’s Turkey, anything can happen.”

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In epicentre of Turkey quakes, survivors are indifferent to upcoming polls

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PAZARCIK, Turkey – In the southern Turkish town of Pazarcik, the epicentre of the devastating February 6 earthquakes, people are focused on just trying to survive. Tens of thousands of residents left the town after the disaster and for the ones left behind without adequate shelter or facilities, holding a presidential election on May 14 seems incongruous.

They live in the dust, surrounded by the wreckage of buildings slated for demolition. The town of Pazarcik, the epicentre of the February 6 earthquakes in Turkey’s southern Kahramanmaras province, is a shadow of its former self. Only a few damaged buildings have been demolished and the rubble cleared away to make way for vacant lots.

“There’s no one left in the streets,” laments Mustafa Kayki, a local elected official of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), a rightwing nationalist party. “Around 20,000 people have left Pazarcik since this terrible tragedy. Our voters are scattered. Pazarcik has been scattered. Our dear Pazarcik has turned into hell overnight, dark, a ruined city. It’s painful.” 

 

Mustafa Kayki, a local member of the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), says 20,000 people have fled Pazarcik since the earthquakes. © Assiya Hamza, FRANCE 24

 

The city was once home to 70,000 inhabitants, mainly Kurds and Alevis, a religious minority that professes a heterodox Islam, which counts, among its members, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the main opposition candidate in the 2023 presidential election.

At a street corner, two construction workers are busy renovating a shop on the ground floor of a building, which has a big pile of cement stacked at the entrance. There are no signs of political campaigning here and the workers appear indifferent about the upcoming polls. “There’s nothing to say. Just look around,” shrugs one worker.

The two workers, who prefer to remain anonymous, are not very affable. They reveal, rather bitterly, that this construction work is financed by the diaspora that left the country for Europe in the 1990s. “Life has resumed since the earthquake but we don’t know how long it will last. Those who had money have long since left,” explains a worker.

 

A camp for the homeless was set up at the entrance to Pazarcik after the February 6, 2023, quakes.
A camp for the homeless was set up at the entrance to Pazarcik after the February 6, 2023, quakes. © Assiya Hamza, FRANCE 24

 

When people are asked about the May 14 election, their faces cloud over. Pazarcik’s remaining residents explain that they are “afraid to speak out and get arrested”. There’s a palpable fear of openly criticising the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has been in power for 20 years, and its leader, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, appears particularly out of bounds.

“It’s not the right time to organise an election,” says Kayki. “People here are not thinking about elections, they are thinking about how they will survive. What am I going to eat? Where am I going to stay? These are their only concerns.” 

‘I don’t think I will vote’

It’s a view echoed by Adem Kutuk, a 49-year-old carpenter who has lived in Pazarcik for 24 years. “After everything we’ve just been through, I wish there was no election. What’s the point? Only those who live here, in these ruins, can understand. I don’t think I will vote,” he explains before making it clear that he does not want to “talk about politics”.

 

Carpenter Adem Kutuk says he's overworked rebuilding homes after the earthquakes.
Carpenter Adem Kutuk says he’s overworked rebuilding homes after the earthquakes. © Assiya Hamza, FRANCE 24

 

In his small workshop, Kutuk is overwhelmed with work. “I wish there was no earthquake. I wouldn’t have so much work today. We have so much, too much work. Everywhere we go, we’re fixing kitchen cabinets, closets … Anything we can get back in shape.”

 

Adem Kutuk had five workshops before the earthquakes. This is the only one that survived the disaster.
Adem Kutuk had five workshops before the earthquakes. This is the only one that survived the disaster. © Assiya Hamza, FRANCE 24

 

Shortly after the earthquakes struck, Kutuk and his colleagues went into battle mode, trying to help the victims. “We went to Iskenderun, in Hatay province, to buy particleboard to repair houses,” says the craftsman who now lives in a three-room hut that he built for his wife and two children after the quake.

‘The earthquake changed everything’

Funda Ozdilli has not been as lucky. The 36-year-old housewife lives in a tent – like an estimated 2.7 million people across Turkey rendered homeless by the earthquakes. Ozdilli lives here with her husband and 15-year-old daughter.

“I can’t tell you what we’re going through. Talking about it and living it are two different things,” she says quietly as she does the dishes under a tarp stretched in front of the entrance to her makeshift shelter. “I knocked on many doors to ask for help but they remained closed. I said we were homeless, that we needed a tent. I finally received this one.”

The Kurdish woman has not seen any of the 10,000 liras [465 euros] economic aid promised by Erdogan back on February 9, during a presidential trip to the southeastern city of Gaziantep. “Some people have got 10,000 or 15,000 liras,” she says, referring to a resettlement assistance. “I didn’t get anything. I don’t know why.”

 

Funda Ozdilli washes dishes in an area outside her tent in Pazarcik, Turkey.
Funda Ozdilli washes dishes in an area outside her tent in Pazarcik, Turkey. © Assiya Hamza, FRANCE 24

 

Hands plunged in a basin of soapy water, she talks about the stifling heat, the lack of sanitary facilities, the absence of showers, the terror when a snake invited itself into the family tent. “I’m not asking for money. I just want a roof over my head. Is that too much to ask?”

Shelter, a place to call home, that’s all Ozdilli dreams about these days. “If I could find a house for 1,000 pounds [47 euros], I would do everything I could to pay for it.  But how can I pay 3,000 pounds rent every month? My husband is the only one working. We are not rich,” she explains.

Erdogan has promised to build more than 450,000 earthquake-resistant homes “within a year”. It’s an eternity for many who, like Ozdilli, live in precarious shelters. “I’m not going to vote for anyone. Who do you want me to vote for? I don’t think about it. I’m desperate. The earthquake has changed everything. People don’t know who to trust anymore,” she says with a blank look. “No one has the right to ask us for our vote. They have to find solutions for us first. Then we can talk about the vote.”

This article has been translated from the original in French.

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‘All that we’re asking for is to be recognised’: Turkish Alevis’ struggle for equality

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From our special correspondent in Pazarcik, Turkey – With an estimated population of between 15 to 20 million people, Turkey’s Alevi community is one of the country’s largest religious minorities. Despite being widely discriminated against, Alevis are being given renewed hopes in their struggle for equality in Turkey as Alevi presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu faces off against incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan on May 14. 

The Cemevi (Turkish for house of gathering) in the town of Pazarcik situated in the Kahramanmaras Province in southern Turkey has been heavily damaged by the February 6 earthquakes. The Alevi prayer house now serves as a place of storage for aid supplies.

Chairs and tables are piled together and boxes strewn about on the cracked and dust-covered floor of the partially destroyed prayer house where President Hasan Husevin Degirmenci of the local Alevi Cultural Association spoke with FRANCE 24.

The Pazarcik Cemevi, which was originally built with funds raised through the sale of “tea and coffee at weddings of the [Alevi] diaspora in Switzerland”, is far from the only Alevi prayer house damaged by the earthquakes, Degirmenci said, adding that there is no rebuilding in sight.

Meanwhile mosques damaged by the earthquakes will be rebuilt, he said. 

Alevism: an old syncretic religion

It is hard to define what Alevism actually is. Some say it is a sect, while others call it a religion, an Islamic branch resembling Shi’ism and Sufism. Alevis, however, regard themselves neither as Sunnis nor Shias.

“We red heads (kızılbaş in Turkish refers to the crimson headwear worn by Alevis during the rule of the Ottoman empire) have nothing to do with Shias,” Degirmenci said. “Ali is Shia. We pray for the 12 imams at each Cem (gathering) so that the prayer is complete.”

The Pazarcik Cemevi that has been heavily damaged by the February 6 earthquakes now serves as a place of storage for aid supplies. © Assiya Hamza

The icons of the 12 imams are portrayed above a platform at the far end of the room with Ali, the prophet Muhammad’s cousin and son-in-law, along with Muhammad’s descendants. The 12th imam is “hidden” (his features are not portrayed) and is believed by Alevis to return at the end of time. The icon of Haci Bektas Veli, a revered 13th century Turkish philosopher and founder of the Bektashi Order, and a photo of Ataturk, founder of the Turkish Republic and champion of secularism, are also portrayed. 

The icons of the 12 imams are portrayed at the Pazarcik place of worship.
The icons of the 12 imams are portrayed at the Pazarcik place of worship. © Assiya Hamza

 

 

A portrait of Ataturk, founder of the Turkish Republic and champion of secularism, displayed at the Pazarcik Cemevi.
A portrait of Ataturk, founder of the Turkish Republic and champion of secularism, displayed at the Pazarcik Cemevi. © Assiya Hamza

The Alevi faith is essentially a religious syncretism which combines philosophy, Gnosticism, Sufism and Christianity. Unlike the majority of Muslims, Alevis do not pray five times per day, nor do they go on pilgrimage to Mecca. They do not observe Ramadan and do not ban alcohol. Every Thursday, a ceremony called the Cem is presided by a dede (which literally means “grandfather” in Turkish) during which men and women gather to pray. At the end of the ceremony, the devotees perform a dance called Semah accompanied by music played on a Saz, a traditional string instrument.

“The main rule is justice. Don’t do unto others what you don’t want done unto you,” Degirmenci said. “Don’t say things that you won’t want said to you. We don’t have a book. Our belief is passed on orally. We respect the four holy books (the Quran, the Bible, the Torah and the Book of Psalms) and we expect the same respect from others. We exist, even though we’re not recognised by authorities.”

‘They killed children’ 

Ever since the rule of the Ottoman empire, Alevis have been regarded as apostates, miscreants and followers of Islamic fanaticism in Turkey. Often persecuted for their faith, Alevis have been the victims of several pogroms. Hasan Husevin Degirmenci has himself survived the 1978 Maras (short for Kahramanmaras) massacre, during which over a hundred Alevi Kurds were killed and more than 500 injured by neofascist groups according to official figures. 

“The fight was mainly between left and right wingers (communists and neofascists from Turkey’s Nationalist Movement Party) but armed groups took it out on Alevis,” Degirmenci said. “They killed children, they eviscerated pregnant women. At that time, there were a lot of Alevis living in Maras, and the community was prosperous. They did it to divide and to weaken us. They reinvented history by pitting Sunnis against Alevis.”

Another more recent pogrom has also left its bitter mark on Alevi history. On July 2, 1993, Islamic fanatics carried out an arson attack on a hotel in Sivas, a city in central Turkey known for its religious conservatism. Academics were gathered at the hotel to celebrate Pir Sultan Abdal, a 16th century Alevi poet. The arson attack left 37 people dead, and among them 33 Alevis. The faces of the “martyrs” cover one of the walls of Cemevi’s main hall. 

The faces of the victims of the Sivas massacre cover one of the walls of the Pazarcik Cemevi’s main hall.
The faces of the victims of the Sivas massacre cover one of the walls of the Pazarcik Cemevi’s main hall. © Assiya Hamza

Despite making up to an estimated 20 percent of the population, the Alevi community in Turkey continue to face death threats and attacks for not observing Ramadan, and their houses are often marked with a cross.

“When I was a child, we weren’t even allowed to speak Kurdish. We had to hide our faith after the Maras massacre. But after what happened in Sivas in 1993, people refused to endure it anymore,” Degirmenci said. 

Struggle for equality 

“I was born Alevi, I didn’t choose it. I have an identity card, I did my military service, I pay my taxes. I fulfil all my duties as a citizen. There are between 15 and 20 million Alevis in Turkey and all that we’re asking for is to be recognised in the Constitution.”  

Despite the continuous hardships, the Alevi community in Turkey have recently been given renewed hopes when the opposition presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu spoke publicly of his Alevi heritage, breaking a political taboo. 

Backed by strong popular support, Kilicdaroglu would become the first Alevi president in Turkey’s history if he is elected on May 14 against Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 

“We Alevis, we have hope. We will never give up,” Degirmenci said. “An Alevi candidate will apply his beliefs in morality and justice. There are other minorities in Turkey: Kurds, Syrians, Yezidis … He will not point fingers at anyone.” 

However, Kilicdaroglu’s victory is not yet guaranteed, and fears over the incumbent’s potential re-election remain high among Alevis.

“We can’t go on like this,” he said. “The Christians have already left the country. If he is re-elected, the Alevis will leave.”

This article was adapted from the original in French. 

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Should Turks living in Europe be allowed to vote in May’s elections?

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Sultan has lived in London for more than two decades.

The 59-year-old housewife is close to her extended family and enjoys spending time with the three grandchildren. 

And like many other Turkish nationals living abroad, Sultan plans to cast a vote in the upcoming Turkish elections.

“I need to know who is ruling my country, if I am given this right, I need to have a say. It is my country at the end of the day,” she tells Euronews.

“We keep the ties alive with our home country. We always travel and stay there for months sometimes. When there, we use the same daily services such as hospitals and post offices with the people residing in Turkey. So why shouldn’t we?”

“People criticise me for living in London and being involved in Turkish politics,” she continues.

“I tell them, when I left Turkey, the atmosphere was different. We just had a massive earthquake at the time in 1999. I didn’t have many opportunities for work. The general situation wasn’t so great. But although I believe things have improved, it is not easy for someone to relocate at a certain age when you need your children and grandchildren around you”.

‘If those granted citizenship later in life can vote, why shouldn’t we?’

Forty-year-old Umut is a business owner in the construction industry and called France home for the past 17 years. 

He tells Euronews he’ll be heading to the polls for the election to exercise his democratic right, but he adds: “My situation might be different to others as I have businesses in both countries. I travel between the two often, so I believe I have a say.”

“Many Turkish living in Europe feel they belong to Turkey. Even if they are born and bred here, they always have a dream of returning one day, although deep inside know they will never go back”.

Umut believes people who are against extending voting rights to the Turkish diaspora are not criticising the right to vote, but are more likely critical of the fact it was the current AKP government who made it possible since they know a majority of voters overseas are on their side. 

Asked what his priorities are when deciding on how to vote, Umut says, “justice, an independent judiciary”.

“If a non-Turkish person, for example, an Iranian or someone from the Gulf states, is granted citizenship, hence the right to vote when they invest in Turkey, why shouldn’t we? Nearly all Turkish citizens living abroad have some kind of investment in Turkey”.

The father of three says his children are unlikely to vote in Turkey’s elections when they become eligible.

“They identify themselves as French first, then Turkish. I don’t think they will be interested in Turkish politics”.

Millions of voters overseas

Sultan and Umut are just two of more than three million Turkish nationals who live abroad, and who are eligible to vote in the upcoming elections on 14 May – around 5% of the total electorate. 

With polls suggesting the race will be neck-and-neck between the two main candidates, overseas voters could potentially play a decisive role in deciding the outcome. 

The question of whether expatriot Turks should even get a say in determining the fate of the country they don’t live in comes up at each election, since they were given the right to vote back in 2012. 

Turkish nationals with residency abroad cast their first votes remotely for the first time in 2014 for the presidential elections. Previously, those residing abroad could only vote at border gates.

Critics of the right to vote abroad argue that Turkish migrants living in the West are well off with better living standards, unaffected by the internal politics of Turkey and enjoy the rate of the currency they earn against the Turkish Lira. 

Defendants say it’s a democratic right.

‘Where do we set boundaries?’

For Emre Erdogan, a professor of political sciences at Bilgi University, the governing bodies should be inclusive when deciding who should vote.

“If we defend that it is a right derived from citizenship, then migrants or refugees cannot vote. But they are directly affected by the policies of governments or affect the policies directly. However we do not give them a voice,” he tells Euronews.

“So arguing that people should be voting only at their residential country becomes restrictive.”

“Where do we set boundaries?” he asks.

“There are many people especially residing in Germany who have investments in real estate in Turkey. There is no harm in being inclusive.”

Erdogan argues the issue of external voting cannot be discussed without examining the policies of Turkey towards its nationals living abroad.

“When we look at Germany example, Turkey saw the potential in mobilising a mass population of Turkish nationals at the time of Turgut Ozal’s leadership,” he says.

“The main aim was to keep the Turkish identity. These policies were not aimed at integrating Turkish citizens into the countries they have settled in. Those who emigrated abroad embraced religion whenever they had to overcome issues they faced or to maintain their political or national identities. This has created a hinterland of Turkey in Germany. Therefore, it was already known who would benefit the most from this kind of hinterland,” Erdogan tells Euronews.

“At the same time, the Kurdish movement is also a powerful movement abroad, especially in France and more in Sweden.”

“When it comes to Social Democrats or the opposition in Turkey, they have failed to grab the attention of Turkish people living elsewhere. They don’t take enough action in this field.”

Ayhan Kaya, a professor of politics and director of the European Institute at Istanbul Bilgi University, believes participating in elections from abroad shows that the political, cultural, social and economic ties of those living outside Turkey with their homeland remain strong.

“These ties are growing stronger with the globalisation that offers more accessible communication and transportation”, he says.

The previous election results show each country has a different voter profile. The majority of Turkish citizens favour current president Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Germany, but those in the UK favour the pro-Kurdish HDP or main opposition party CHP.

According to Prof Kaya, this can be explained by the integration policies of each country. 

For example, Germany, where most Turkish migrants live, does not allow dual citizenship. Those who don’t give up their Turkish IDs for a German one tend to be much more patriotic or have a strong religious identity. It is no surprise that these voters favour Erdogan over parties of the left.

“Another factor that determines the voter’s decision is the underlying reason for living abroad. A significant portion of people of Turkish origin living in countries such as the UK, Switzerland, the USA and Sweden are refugees who distanced themselves from the government in Turkey. This explains why there are differences of voter tendencies in different counties.”

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Looking back at 20 years of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in power

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After two decades in power as prime minister and as president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is hoping to win a final mandate in the 2023 presidential election next month. But amid mounting anger over his handling of the economy in recent years, the seasoned Turkish politician could be in for a tough fight against his main rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Turkish political scientist Ahmet Insel looks back at Erdogan’s time in power. 

A talented orator and wily politician credited with lifting millions of Turks into the middle class, Recep Tayyip Erdogan transformed the country as only Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of the Turkish Republic, accomplished before him. The 69-year-old Turkish president is now running for a third term. But the upcoming presidential election in May is no cakewalk for the seasoned politician with polls suggesting he could be defeated by opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. 

A profound economic crisis coupled with skyrocketing inflation, deep political tensions and mounting anger over his handling of the February 6 earthquakes, which killed more than 50,000 people, could cost Erdogan his place in the Ak Saray presidential palace. Turkish political scientist and publisher Ahmet Insel spoke to FRANCE 24 about Erdogan’s political legacy and the stakes in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections. 

FRANCE 24: After two decades of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in power, do Turkish voters still trust him?  

Ahmet Insel: He is not as popular as he was in 2020. In 2018, he won the first round of the presidential election with flying colours, getting 52% of votes. But surveys now show that only 40% or 42% of respondents would vote for Erdogan in the first round of the upcoming election. After 20 years in power, it’s a relative drop but not an insignificant one, given the democratic erosion that has taken place and the ongoing economic crisis.   

He could lose this election because of his decision to change Turkey’s political system to a presidential one, where a candidate needs over 50% of votes to win. If he had kept the parliamentary system, he would certainly win. Despite how he handled the earthquakes, Erdogan still has a surprisingly strong level of support. People also fear the change that would come should the opposition win these elections.   

How would you assess his track record as prime minister and president? 

His track record is negative on three counts. First, he came into a rather authoritarian democratic regime with the promise of establishing a conservative parliamentary democracy and expanding rights. What we see today is an extremely repressive presidential regime that has gutted civil society, gagged the media and made way for an autocracy, justifiable only because elections still exist. Turkey hasn’t made any progress on the democratic front. 

On the economic front, Erdogan implemented a neoliberal stabilisation policy in the 2000s, taking advantage of a very favourable international situation. With the prospect of Turkey joining the EU in a 15-year timeframe, there was plenty of foreign investments. The average income per capita rose from $3,000 in 2002 to $12,000 in 2012, a record high. But since then, it has been declining and is now at $9,000 – the same as it was between 2007 and 2008.   

Turkey’s ongoing economic crisis is largely a consequence of policies that Erdogan has implemented since 2018. The Turkish lira has lost more than 200% of its value in relation to the euro in just four years, which is an astounding rate. Turkey has the second-highest inflation rate worldwide. We reached an official rate of 80-90% last year, but unofficial estimates say the rate was much higher. Our current rate is around 60%. The middle class has become poorer. When Erdogan first came to power, Turkey had been part of the G20 for four years and had the 17th highest GDP in the world. That ranking has now dropped to 20th. There could have been more positive outcomes, but the president wasted the assets he had in his first 10 years as leader.   

Lastly, there is the ideological shift Erdogan made. In the early 2000s, he was culturally conservative and politically liberal, especially regarding gender issues. He supported an open-minded policy on education. But from 2010 to 2011 onwards, he changed his policies and adopted a more nationalistic, “authentic” position, to use his own words. He described himself as a Turkish nationalist who embodies Sunni Muslim values. He started saying his goal was to train a “pious youth”, something unheard of ten years earlier. His nepotism was blatant, he appointed people from “imam schools” – or preachers – to senior positions within his administration. He implemented more religious education in school curriculums. He used the Directorate of Religious Affairs in Turkey (Diyanet) to spread religious ideology. And he transformed the historic Hagia Sophia into a mosque, which was symbolically a big move.   

What about his foreign policy?   

Turkey has become a regional power feared by its neighbours, including Syria, Iran, Greece … Contrary to what Erdogan promised in the 2000s, the country has become a source of many problems, not a solution. He uses the country’s location to position Turkey as an intermediary between Ukraine and Russia. But while Erdogan condemns Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he still cooperates on trade. His stance on NATO is ambivalent. Relations between Erdogan and the EU are completely frozen regarding Turkey’s membership. And he doesn’t respect the decisions made by the European Court of Human Rights.  

How can you explain Erdogan’s ideological shift, especially in terms of religion?  

He was trained in political Islam. He was the first mayor of Istanbul to be a member of the [Islamist] Welfare Party. In the late 1990s, he realised his stance on political Islam would limit him to the political fringes. Along with other politicians such as Abdullah Gul, who became president in 2007, he realised it was necessary to refocus his political agenda and occupy the centre-right. His success in both the 2002 and 2007 parliamentary elections was a consequence of his altogether authoritarian, culturally conservative, economically liberal, and politically rather democratic stance. It’s also what garnered him international support.   

From 2011 onwards, he had a majority in parliament and began implementing religiously conservative policies. And then came the Arab Spring. That’s when we found out he had been in close contact with the Muslim Brotherhood. He saw the Arab Spring as a moment to become the rising star of “democratic” Muslims in the region, from Algeria to Syria. He wanted to be the democratic older brother. He strongly supported Mohamed Morsi [in Egypt], Syrian opposition groups, and Ennahda [in Tunisia]. I think that’s the moment he started changing his stance. When Morsi was overthrown, when the US and France supported [army chief Abdel Fattah] al-Sissi, when Ennahda became an enemy of the state, he became suspicious of western allies. He is very paranoid. 

Then in 2014, he was elected president. After the June 2015 parliamentary elections, he lost his majority. He realised he could no longer win elections on his own and formed an alliance with the far-right nationalist party, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). They were once fierce opponents, literally hurling insults at one another. In 2018, their interests converged, they joined forces and went on to win a parliamentary majority. Since then, he has associated himself politically with extremist nationalist and religious views.   

Will the February 6 earthquakes impact how people vote in May?   

The way he handled the earthquake may slightly weaken his chances. According to the polls, those who were convinced they wouldn’t vote for Erdogan are even more convinced now.  

On the other hand, the earthquakes took place in regions where Erdogan has a reserve of back-up votes (aside from Antioch). There may be a loss, but on a national level, the impact seems to be minimal.   

What will happen if his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu wins? Will Erdogan admit defeat?   

Erdogan was the one to appoint all the judges of the High Electoral Council, so people are afraid they will declare his victory before the opposition appeals are filed. All the opposition parties have mobilised on the issue of election security to ensure their observers are everywhere. There are 192,000 voting stations in Turkey, the objective is to have observers in at least 160,000 of them.   

What would dramatically change if the opposition wins?   

The government will start sending more positive messages to the EU and, if they have a parliamentary majority, take the necessary measures to change the nature of the regime. It’s possible to change the criminal code, for example, and go back to a system that ensures fundamental freedoms. Foreign policy wouldn’t change that much because the international situation won’t be shifting drastically anytime soon. Turkey’s [foreign policy] position will go from aggressive to calm. Relations with NATO members will be less tense, Sweden’s membership will no longer be blocked. The opposition would probably cancel the purchase of Russian S-400 missiles, a source of major conflict with the US. And there will be a sense of freedom in the air for a few months. After that, it’ll be up to the ruling parties to play their cards right.  

This article was translated from the original in French. 

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