Tag: Russia Ukraine war

Explained | Ukraine’s recent round of weapons acquisition

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Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, right, shakes hands with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after addressing a media conference in Berlin on Sunday, May 14, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AP

The story so far: Germany on Saturday announced fresh military aid valued at around $3 billion as the country continues to fight against a Russian invasion that began in February 2022.

The move was announced by Germany right before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was scheduled to visit Berlin for the first time since the Russian invasion. President Zelenskyy arrived in Germany on Sunday after meeting Italian leaders and Pope Francis in Rome.

The Hindu looks at recent military aid acquired by Ukraine.

Germany

According to German news organisation Der Spiegel, the new military aid package for Ukraine includes 30 Leopard 1 A5 tanks, 20 Marder armoured personnel carriers, more than 100 combat vehicles, 18 self-propelled Howitzers, 200 reconnaissance drones, four IRIS-T SLM anti-aircraft systems and other air defence equipment.

The Leopard tanks are manufactured by German defence equipment and technology company Krauss-Maffei Wegmann. The Leopard 1 tank was first manufactured in 1965 and its upgrades are still in use in nine countries. According to Army Recognition, the Leopard 1 A5 is an improved version of the Leopard 1A1A1 main battle tank (MBT) which was the first upgrade of the Leopard tank.

The Leopard 1 A5 tank was based on a research project undertaken in 1980. It has night vision, computerised fire control, and an automatic fire detection and extinguishing system.

Earlier this year, Germany had announced that it will provide Leopard 2 tanks – one of the most advanced MBTs in the world – to Ukraine.

The IRIS-T surface launch missile (SLM) system is manufactured by German weapons manufacturer Diehl Defence. It was successfully tested for the first time in 2014.

According to Army Recognition, IRIS-T SLM provides 360° protection against aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles, and guided weapons. It can simultaneously engage multiple targets from very short to medium range within brief reaction times.

Each IRIS-T SLM system consists of three vehicles – a missile launcher, a radar, and a fire-control radar, with integrated logistics and support, as reported by Deutsche Welle. The missiles use infrared imaging to identify targets. They have a range of 40 kilometres (km) and an altitude coverage of 20 km.

France

The next stop on President Zelenskyy’s multinational Europe tour was France, where he spent three hours at the Elysee Palace meeting French President Emmanuel Macron. Although specific numbers were not disclosed, Mr. Macron’s office said that France will supply dozens of light tanks, armoured vehicles, and air defence systems to Ukraine. France is also aiming to train around 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers this year.

In the past, France has provided an array of weaponry, include air defence systems, light tanks, howitzers and other arms and equipment and fuel to Ukraine.

The United Kingdom

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy arrived in London on Monday to meet U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and secure more military aid for his country. The U.K. announced that over the next few months, it will send hundreds of air defence missiles and additional unmanned aerial systems, including hundreds of new long-range (greater than 200 km range) attack drones, to Ukraine.

A week before the meeting between Mr. Sunak and Mr. Zelenskyy, the U.K. had confirmed that it had provided Ukraine with Storm Shadow, a long-range cruise missile.

The Storm Shadow is an air-launched, long-range cruise missile designed by MBDA Systems for “pre-planned attacks against high value fixed or stationary targets”.

It weighs 1,300 kg and has a range more than 250 km. It is capable of being operated at all times of the day, and is not limited by weather. It combines inertial navigation system, global positioning system, and terrain referencing to achieve high accuracy.

On Saturday, Russia accused Ukraine of striking two industrial sites in the Russian-held city of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine with Storm Shadow. Right before Russia’s accusation, the U.K. had admitted that it supplied Ukraine with long-range missiles, becoming the first country to say so, news agency Reuters reported.

Despite his fast-paced Europe trip, Mr. Zelenskyy’s demand for fighter jets remained unfulfilled. The absence of NATO-compatible jets has been a significant disadvantage for Ukraine, whose pilots are used to flying MiG-29s and Sukhoi jets.

According to U.K.’s official statement, the country will start training Ukrainian pilots this summer while it works with other nations to provide Kyiv with F-16 jets.

So far, the U.S. has the largest country-wise share in aid provided to Ukraine since February 2022. According to an analysis by Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the U.S. has provided more than $75 billion in aid to Ukraine, which includes humanitarian, financial, and military support.

Country-wise support to Ukraine

Country-wise support to Ukraine
| Photo Credit:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy

In addition to the recently committed European military aid to Ukraine, the U.S. has promised its Abrams tank, Patriot missiles, NASAMS (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System), Himars rocket launcher system (M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System), and Stryker armoured fighting vehicles, while the U.K. has promised Challenger tanks and Starstreak missiles.

  • Germany on Saturday announced fresh military aid valued at around $3 billion as Ukraine continues to fight against a Russian invasion that began in February 2022. The move was announced by Germany right before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was scheduled to visit Berlin for the first time since the Russian invasion.
  • The new military aid package for Ukraine includes 30 Leopard 1 A5 tanks, 20 Marder armoured personnel carriers, more than 100 combat vehicles, 18 self-propelled Howitzers, 200 reconnaissance drones, four IRIS-T SLM anti-aircraft systems and other air defence equipment.
  • The Leopard 1 A5 tank was based on a research project undertaken in 1980. It has night vision, computerised fire control, and an automatic fire detection and extinguishing system.

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Zelensky to join G7 at Hiroshima summit as leaders prepare to unveil new Russia sanctions

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Leaders of the world’s most powerful democracies huddled Friday to discuss new ways to punish Russia for its 15-month invasion of Ukraine, days before President Volodymyr Zelensky joins the Group of Seven summit in person on Sunday.

Zelensky will be making his furthest trip from of his war-torn country as leaders are set to unveil new sanctions on Russia for its invasion. Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, confirmed on national television that Zelensky would attend the summit.

“We were sure that our president would be where Ukraine needed him, in any part of the world, to solve the issue of stability of our country,” Danilov said Friday. “There will be very important matters decided there, so physical presence is a crucial thing to defend our interests”.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats against Ukraine, along with North Korea’s months-long barrage of missile tests and China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal, have resonated with Japan’s push to make nuclear disarmament a major part of the summit. World leaders on Friday visited a peace park dedicated to the tens of thousands who died in the world’s first wartime atomic bomb detonation.

Japanese leader Fumio Kishida said he invited Zelensky to the G7 Summit during his visit to Kyiv in March.

Zelensky is also set to appear virtually at a Friday meeting of G7 leaders, where they are to be updated on battlefield conditions and agree to toughen their efforts to constrain Moscow’s war effort.

Enforcing sanctions on Russia

After group photos near the city’s iconic bombed-out dome, a wreath-laying and a symbolic tree planting, a new round of sanctions were to be unveiled against Moscow, with a focus on redoubling efforts to enforce existing sanctions meant to stifle Russia’s war effort and hold accountable those behind it, a U.S. official said. Russia is now the most-sanctioned country in the world, but there are questions about the effectiveness of the financial penalties.

The U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to preview the announcement, said the U.S. component of the actions would blacklist about 70 Russian and third-country entities involved in Russia’s defence production, and sanction more than 300 individuals, entities, aircraft and vessels.

The official added that the other G7 nations would undertake similar steps to further isolate Russia and to undermine its ability to wage war in Ukraine. Details were to emerge over the course of the weekend summit.

The European Union was focused on closing the door on loopholes and plans to restrict trade in Russian diamonds, Charles Michel, president of the European Council, told reporters early Friday.

He said the G7 would also try to convey to leaders of countries that are non-member guests at the summit why it’s so important to enforce sanctions.

Nuclear disarmament

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who represents Hiroshima in parliament, wants nuclear disarmament to be a major focus of discussions, and he formally started the summit at Hiroshima’s Peace Memorial Park. The visit by world leaders to a park dedicated to preserving reminders of Aug. 6, 1945, when a U.S. B-29 dropped an atomic bomb over Hiroshima, provided a striking backdrop to the start the summit. An estimated 1,40,000 people were killed in the attack, and a fast-dwindling number of now-elderly survivors have ensured that Hiroshima has become synonymous with anti-nuclear peace efforts.

“Honestly, I have big doubts if Mr. Kishida, who is pursuing a military buildup and seeking to revise the pacifist constitution, can really discuss nuclear disarmament,” Sueichi Kido, a 83-year-old “hibakusha” or survivor of the Nagasaki explosion, told The Associated Press. “But because they are meeting in Hiroshima I do have a sliver of hope that they will have positive talks and make a tiny step toward nuclear disarmament.”

On Thursday night, Kishida opened the global diplomacy by sitting down with President Joe Biden after Biden’s arrival at a nearby military base. Kishida also held talks with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak before the three-day gathering of leaders opens.

The Japan-U.S. alliance is the “very foundation of peace and security in the Indo-Pacific region,” Kishida told Biden in opening remarks. Japan, facing threats from authoritarian China, Russia and North Korea, has been expanding its military but also relies on 50,000 U.S. troops stationed in Japan and U.S. military might.

“We very much welcome that the cooperation has evolved in leaps and bounds,” Kishida said.

Biden, who greeted U.S. and Japanese troops at nearby Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni before meeting with Kishida, said: “When our countries stand together, we stand stronger, and I believe the whole world is safer when we do.”

As G7 attendees made their way to Hiroshima, Moscow unleashed yet another aerial attack on the Ukrainian capital. Loud explosions thundered through Kyiv during the early hours, marking the ninth time this month that Russian air raids have targeted the city after weeks of relative quiet.

“Discussions about the battlefield”

“The crisis in Ukraine: I’m sure that’s what the conversation is going to start with,” said Matthew P. Goodman, senior vice president for economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, said there will be “discussions about the battlefield” in Ukraine and on the “state of play on sanctions and the steps that the G7 will collectively commit to on enforcement in particular.”

The United States has frozen Russian Central Bank funds, restricted banks’ access to SWIFT — the dominant system for global financial transactions — and sanctioned thousands of Russian firms, government officials, oligarchs and their families.

The Group of Seven nations collectively imposed a $60 per-barrel price cap on Russian oil and diesel last year, which the U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday defended in a new progress report, stating that the cap has been successful in suppressing Russian oil revenues. Treasury cites Russian Ministry of Finance data showing that the Kremlin’s oil revenues from January to March this year were more than 40% lower than last year.

The economic impact of sanctions depends largely on the extent to which a targeted country is able to circumvent them, according to a recent Congressional Research Service repor t. So for the past month, U.S. Treasury officials have traveled across Europe and Central Asia to press countries that still do business with the Kremlin to cut their financial ties.

“The challenge is to make sure the sanctions are painful against Russia, not against ourselves,” said Michel. “It’s very clear that each package is more difficult than the previous one and requires more political effort to make a decision.”

G7 leaders and invited guests from several other counties are also expected to discuss how to deal with China’s growing assertiveness and military buildup as concerns rise that it could could try to seize Taiwan by force, sparking a wider conflict. China claims the self-governing island as its own and its ships and warplanes regularly patrol near it.

Dueling diplomacy

Security was tight in Hiroshima, with thousands of police deployed throughout the city. A small group of protesters was considerably outnumbered by police as they gathered Wednesday evening beside the ruins of the Atomic Peace Dome memorial, holding signs including one which read “No G7 Imperialist Summit!”

In a bit of dueling diplomacy, Chinese President Xi Jinping is hosting the leaders of the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan for a two-day summit in the Chinese city of Xi’an.

The leaders are due to discuss efforts to strengthen the global economy and address rising prices that are squeezing families and government budgets around the world, particularly in developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America.

The debate over raising the debt limit in the U.S., the world’s largest economy, has threatened to overshadow the G7 talks. Biden plans to hurry back to Washington after the summit for debt negotiations, scrapping planned meetings in Papua New Guinea and Australia.

The British prime minister arrived in Japan earlier Thursday and paid a visit to the JS Izumo, a ship that can carry helicopters and fighter jets able to take off and land vertically.

During their meeting Thursday, Sunak and Kishida announced a series of agreements on issues including defense; trade and investment; technology, and climate change, Sunak’s office said.

The G7 includes Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada and Italy, as well as the European Union.

A host of other countries have been invited to the summit in hopes of strengthening ties to non-G7 countries while shoring up support for efforts like isolating Russia.

Leaders from Australia, Brazil, India, Indonesia and South Korea are among the guests. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to join by video link.

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Zelensky’s Europe tour aimed to replenish Ukraine’s arsenal and build political support

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Volodymyr Zelensky set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’s President will head home with much of what he wanted — though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks.

European leaders promised Mr. Zelensky an arsenal of missiles, tanks and drones during a whirlwind three-day visit to Italy, the Vatican, Germany, France and the U.K. that sought to replenish Ukraine’s depleted weapons supplies ahead of a long-anticipated spring offensive aimed at turning the tide of the war.

The trip was also about shoring up European political and military support for the longer term, to ensure Ukraine can hold any ground it takes back and press for a favorable peace.

“They’ve got to show … they’re in this conflict for the long term and that they’re able to keep sustaining this effort,” said Justin Crump, a former British tank commander who heads security consultancy Sibylline. “It’s not going to be one shot and done.”

Mr. Zelensky’s energetic international diplomacy over 15 months of war has persuaded Ukraine’s Western allies to send ever more powerful weapons, from German Leopard tanks to U.S. Patriot missile systems and Storm Shadow cruise missiles from the U.K.

Pressing his case to European leaders in person shows Mr. Zelensky’s growing confidence about traveling abroad. It’s also an attempt to get his “ducks in a row” as Ukraine prepares a push to reclaim territory seized by Russia, said Patrick Bury, senior lecturer in security at the University of Bath.

Also Read |‘We can’t control the sky’, says Zelensky as he asks for fighter jets on U.K. visit

Mr. Bury said that if Ukraine launches an offensive “and it doesn’t go well, there might be a drop off in support and more pressure to negotiate. I think he’s just trying to bind in for as long as he possibly can as much support as he can from the West.”

On May 15, the U.K. pledged hundreds more air defense missiles, as well as attack drones with a range of more than 200 kilometers (120 miles).

France, where Ukraine’s leader met President Emmanuel Macron on May 14, said it would supply Ukraine with dozens of light tanks and armored vehicles, along with unspecified air defense systems.

Mr. Zelensky also visited Germany for talks with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose initial reluctance to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons was a source of frustration in Kyiv. Now, Germany has become one of the biggest arms suppliers to Ukraine, including battle tanks and the sophisticated IRIS-T SLM air-defense system.


Also read: Zelensky calls Germany ‘true friend’ as Ukraine readies riposte

During Mr. Zelensky’s visit Germany announced another 2.7 billion euros ($3 billion) worth of equipment, including tanks, anti-aircraft systems and ammunition.

But Mr. Zelensky’s aim of forming an international “fighter jet coalition” to supply Ukraine with planes has run up against NATO concern about escalating the alliance’s role in the war. Ukraine wants U.S.-made F-16s to supplement its Soviet-era jets, but Washington has resisted calls to send them.

“We want to create a jet coalition and I am very positive about it,” Mr. Zelensky said on May 15 after meeting British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. But, he added: “We have to work a little bit more on it.”

Mr. Sunak said Britain wants to help Ukraine acquire jets, but “it’s not a straightforward thing.”

The U.K. does not have any F-16s, but says it will give Ukrainian pilots basic training on Western-standard jets starting this summer.

Germany’s Scholz was evasive when asked about planes, referring instead to the anti-aircraft system it has provided to Kyiv.

“That’s what we as Germany are now concentrating on,” he said.

The flurry of announcements from Europe’s capitals is part diplomatic theater. Ukraine gets a steady flow of equipment from the West, and some of the weapons announced this week may already have been on the way. Mr. Zelensky’s trip was about securing supplies for the long term, as well as the imminent offensive.

“They should be able to carry out the offensive with what they already have, but that’s not enough to sustain it over the long term,” said retired French Vice Adm. Michel Olhagaray, a former head of France’s center for higher military studies. “And they’ll need the long term to make the Russians crack.”

Mr. Zelensky began his European tour May 13 in Rome, where he received a hearty commitment from Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni — and a more nuanced and less welcome message from Pope Francis.


Also read: Volodymr Zelensky arrives in Rome for meetings with Pope Francis, Italian leaders

Calling Mr. Zelensky her friend and emphasizing their personal rapport, Ms. Meloni promised to provide Ukraine with whatever it needs to win the war and said any compromise to accept an “unjust peace” was unacceptable for Ukraine and Italy, and dangerous for the rest of Europe.

“We cannot call ‘peace’ something that could resemble an invasion,” she told reporters, as Mr. Zelensky nodded along in agreement.

Mr. Zelensky also visited the Vatican to meet Pope Francis, who stressed the need for “gestures of humanity” toward the most vulnerable and innocent victims of the conflict.

While Pope Francis has frequently prayed for the “martyred” Ukrainian people, he has also lamented the Russian mothers who have lost their sons. The equivalence, and his reluctance to outright condemn Russia, is part of the Vatican’s tradition of neutrality in conflicts.

Mr. Zelensky made clear he didn’t appreciate Pope Francis’ emphasis on both Russian and Ukrainian victims of the war, tweeting: “there can be no equality between the victim and the aggressor.”

It was a reminder that Ukraine faces a political as well as a military battle. In Africa and Asia, especially, many are reluctant to take sides in what is seen as a regional European conflict.

François Heisbourg, a French analyst on defense and security questions at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Mr. Zelensky’s European trip was part “weapons shopping tour, that’s clear enough, and it seems to be working very well.”

“But the other aspect, of course, is what you would call shaping the political battlefield,” he said. “The politics are no less important for Zelenskyy than the purely military stuff.”



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As Ukrainian attacks pick up inside Russia, the war is coming home for Putin

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For months after the Ukraine war began, which Russia still calls a “special military operation”, many ordinary Russians, particularly those whose families were spared from the mobilisation, saw the conflict as something that’s happening far away from home. Not any more: with drones attacking the Kremlin, the seat of power in the Russian capital, just a few days before the Second World War Victory Day celebrations, the war is coming home for Russians.

The drones were shot down by the Russian military at 2.30 a.m. on May 3, just over the Kremlin’s Senate Palace, which hosts the President’s office and apartment. It was inside the Palace, President Vladimir Putin received his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on March 21.

The incident which the Kremlin classified as a “planned terrorist attack and an assassination attempt targeting the President ‘‘ was immediately deemed as a huge insult to Moscow, and Mr. Putin personally. Ukraine denied involvement — as it did on all similar occasions in recent months — and alleged that the Kremlin staged a “false-flag operation” to justify an escalation in the war and distract attention from Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive.

A view shows a part of a suicide drone Geran, which local authorities consider to be Iranian made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) Shahed-131/136, shot down during a Russian overnight strike, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Odesa, Ukraine May 4, 2023. The inscription on the part reads: ‘For Kremlin’.
| Photo Credit:
Reuters

“In my opinion, the version that the attack was staged by Russia is out of question,” Ruslan Pukhov, director of Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told  The Hindu. Given the technical aspect of the attack, he said he had been expecting something like this for a year now, and I think such attacks will continue. “As commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) solutions are getting more and more common, which means a drone can be assembled in a garage, it will soon be available not only to state actors and such highly motivated groups as ISIS, but also to individuals,” Mr. Pukhov noted.

When asked whether Moscow’s air defence capabilities should be questioned, experts suggested that most air defence systems are developed to perform against aircraft and ballistic missiles, while cruise missiles and UAVs are more difficult to shoot down. “Debating whether the air defence was effective or not in this particular case is like reasoning whether the glass is half full or half empty. We just have to be prepared for the fact that such attacks will be numerous all over the world,” Mr. Pukhov added.

U.S. officials claimed that they had no foreknowledge about the drone attack and later called the Russian claim that the U.S. had directed Ukraine to carry out the attack “ridiculous”. Previously, the U.S., reacting to the killing of Daria Dugina, a 30-years-old journalist and a daughter of writer and political philosopher Aleksandr Dugin, who is known for his intellectual influence on President Putin, had voiced concerns that Ukrainian attacks inside Russia could widen the conflict. More recently, the  Washington Post reported, citing a classified report from the U.S. National Security Agency, that Ukraine’s plans to attack Moscow on February 24, the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion, were postponed “at Washington’s request”.

Drones and explosives

Ukraine’s strikes deep inside Russian territory intensified in the past few days, which many experts related to Kyiv’s upcoming counteroffensive.

The Russian flag flies on the dome of the Kremlin Senate building behind Spasskaya Tower, while the roof shows what appears to be marks from the recent drone incident, in central Moscow, Russia, May 4, 2023.

The Russian flag flies on the dome of the Kremlin Senate building behind Spasskaya Tower, while the roof shows what appears to be marks from the recent drone incident, in central Moscow, Russia, May 4, 2023.
| Photo Credit:
Reuters

On April 29, a fuel depot in the port city of Sevastopol, the capital of Crimea, caught fire after a drone attack. On May 1, a power line pole was blown up in the Gatchina region near St. Petersburg. On May 2, in the Bryansk region, railway tracks were damaged by detonation of an explosive device, derailing freight trains, in two separate incidents. On the same day, an aeroplane-type drone with explosives (VOG-17) attempted to attack the electrical substation in Belgorod region. Later that day, several other UAVs dropped explosives in various parts of the region, injuring one person. On May 3, a drone attacked a petroleum storage tank in the village of Volna in the Krasnodar region, and the following night, two oil refineries were attacked in Krasnodar and Rostov regions.

In December, Ukraine carried out a successful attack on Engels military airbase, near the city of Saratov, about 730 km southeast of Moscow. Residents of Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions bordering Ukraine have also been witnessing artillery shelling and sabotage attacks on critical infrastructure almost on a daily basis after Russian troops were ousted from the Northern Kharkiv region in September last year.

In March, a car carrying three children was shot at by pro-Ukrainian activists in Bryansk, killing two adults and injuring a 10-year old boy who, despite being wounded, led two minor girls to safety in the forest.

Ukraine hasn’t officially taken responsibility for any of these attacks. However, in January, the adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mikhail Podolyak, said in an interview with Russian opposition journalist Michael Naki that “escalation in the Russian domestic market will be inevitable” and that “in particular, cities that are “pampered” and “lazy” and thought they lived in a different reality, will be affected. Such cities as Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg”.

The killings of Daria Dugina in Moscow and Vladlen Tatarsky (real name Maxim Fomin), a military blogger and writer, in the centre of St. Petersburg proved Ukraine’s intentions. Tatarsky was killed by an explosive mounted into a statuette gifted to him by Daria Trepova (she was arrested the following day and is currently under trial), who is believed to have been recruited by Ukrainians. Over 30 people were injured in the attack.

No retaliation different from a new missile attack on Ukraine, and no large public outcry followed — despite rising casualties. While Western media was focusing rather on Tatarsky’s ambiguous biography than the scale of the attack, Russian media, too, didn’t follow up on the story for long — except a few local outlets that interviewed other victims.

Similarly, the Kremlin attack was also downplayed at home. Some TV channels covered the incident without playing the video of the drone being shot over the Kremlin. The next day’s front pages, too, didn’t carry the images of the drones over the Kremlin. The stories about the attack were buried deep inside.

From red to maroon

The humiliating footage of a drone crashing over the dome of the Senate Palace of the Kremlin raised questions of Moscow’s red lines, yet again.

Russian military bloggers and public figures actively supporting Russia’s “special operation” have noted, sarcastically, that the Kremlin attack was “a mockery” of its red lines, compared to the shelling of Russia-controlled Donbass region, leading to deaths and injuries on a daily basis, or the bombing of the Nord Stream pipeline and the Crimean bridge, or the assassination of Russian journalists inside Russia.

Reacting to the attack, prominent politicians such as Mikhail Sheremet, State Duma deputy from Crimea, and Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s ex-President and Prime Minister who is currently Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, called for a strike on the residence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv. The speaker of the State Duma, the lower house of Parliament, Vyacheslav Volodin, called for recognising Ukraine “a terrorist state” (the initiative is already being discussed by legislators with no outcome so far) and demanded the use of weapons “that can stop and destroy the Kyiv regime”.

Dmitry Solonnikov, director of the St. Petersburg-based Institute of Modern State Development, in a conversation with  The Hindu, criticised Russian politicians and public speakers for “intimidating with strikes of retaliation”, saying such comments only harm Russia’s reputation both outside the country and in the eyes of society. “Russia hasn’t practically responded to such provocations before, and the only response to crossing all the “red lines” would be a complete victory in the “special military operation”, with the fulfilment of the tasks set by the President of Russia,” he said.

Speaking about the limited reaction by the public to the ongoing attacks, Mr. Solonnikov pointed out that the Kremlin initially made a mistake in positioning the Ukraine conflict to Russian society. “Painting the conflict as some limited military operation, and attempting to show that life hasn’t changed, with large concerts and celebrations being held in Moscow, was a mistake. The awareness should have been created, that this is a life-and-death struggle,” he said.

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Pelosi says Ukraine, democracy ‘must win’

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“We thought we could die.”

The Russian invasion had just begun when Nancy Pelosi made a surprise visit to Ukraine, the House speaker then the highest-ranking elected U.S. official to lead a congressional delegation to Kyiv.

Ms. Pelosi and the lawmakers were ushered under the cloak of secrecy into the capital city, an undisclosed passage that even to this day she will not divulge.

“It was very, it was dangerous,” Ms. Pelosi told The Associated Press before April 30th’s one-year anniversary of that trip.

“We never feared about it, but we thought we could die because we’re visiting a serious, serious war zone,” Ms. Pelosi said. “We had great protection, but nonetheless, a war — theater of war.”

Ms. Pelosi’s visit was as unusual as it was historic, opening a fresh diplomatic channel between the U.S. and Ukraine that has only deepened with the prolonged war. In the year since, a long list of congressional leaders, senators and chairs of powerful committees, both Democrats and Republicans, followed her lead, punctuated by President Joe Biden’s own visit this year.

The steady stream of arrivals in Kyiv has served to amplify a political and military partnership between the U.S. and Ukraine for the world to see, one that will be tested anew when Congress is again expected this year to help fund the war to defeat Russia.

“We must win. We must bring this to a positive conclusion — for the people of Ukraine and for our country,” Ms. Pelosi said.

“There is a fight in the world now between democracy and autocracy, its manifestation at the time is in Ukraine.”

With a new Republican majority in the House whose Trump-aligned members have baulked at overseas investments, Ms. Pelosi, a Democrat, remains confident the Congress will continue backing Ukraine as part of a broader U.S. commitment to democracy abroad in the face of authoritarian aggression.

“Support for Ukraine has been bipartisan and bicameral, in both houses of Congress by both parties, and the American people support democracy in Ukraine,” Ms. Pelosi told AP. “I believe that we will continue to support as long as we need to support democracy … as long as it takes to win.”

Now the speaker emerita, an honorary title bestowed by Democrats, Ms. Pelosi is circumspect about her role as a U.S. emissary abroad. Having visited 87 countries during her time in office, many as the trailblazing first woman to be the House speaker, she set a new standard for pointing the gavel outward as she focused attention on the world beyond U.S. shores.

In her office tucked away at the Capitol, Ms. Pelosi shared many of the honours and mementoes she has received from abroad, including the honorary passport she was given on her trip to Ukraine, among her final stops as speaker.

It’s a signature political style, building on Ms. Pelosi’s decades of work on the House Intelligence Committee, but one that a new generation of House leaders may— or may not— choose to emulate.

The new Speaker Kevin McCarthy hosted Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library this month, the Republican leader’s first foray as leader into foreign affairs.

Democrat Hakeem Jeffries took his own first trip abroad as House minority leader, leading congressional delegations last week to Ghana and Israel.

Ms. Pelosi said it’s up to the new leaders what they will do on the global stage.

“Other speakers have understood our national security— we take an oath to protect and defend— and so we have to reach out with our values and our strength to make sure that happens,” she said.

“I just want to say that this, for me, was the most logical thing to do,” Ms. Pelosi said.

When Pelosi arrived in Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stood outside to meet the U.S. officials, a photo that ricocheted around the world as a show of support for the young democracy fighting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion.

“The courage of the president in greeting us on the street rather than us just meeting him in his office was yet again another symbol of the courage of the people of Ukraine,” she said.

Ms. Pelosi told Mr. Zelenskyy in a video released at the time “your fight is a fight for everyone.”

A year on, with no end to the war in sight, Ms. Pelosi said: “I would have hoped that it would have been over by now.”

Ms. Pelosi’s travel abroad has not been without political challenges and controversy. During the Trump era, she acted as an alternative emissary overseas, reassuring allies that the U.S. remained a partner despite the Republican president’s “America First” neo-isolationist approach to foreign policy.

Last year, in one of her final trips as a speaker, Ms. Pelosi touched down with a delegation in Taipei, crowds lining the streets to cheer her arrival, a visit with the Taiwanese president that drew a sharp rebuke from Beijing, which counts the island as its own.

“Cowardly,” she said about the military exercises China launched in the aftermath of her trip.

Ms. Pelosi offered rare praise for Mr. McCarthy’s own meeting with Tsai, particularly its bipartisan nature and the choice of venue, the historic Reagan library.

“That was really quite a message and quite an optic to be there. And so I salute what he did,” she said.

In one of her closing acts as House speaker in December, Ms. Pelosi hosted Mr. Zelenskyy for a joint address to Congress. The visit evoked the one made by Winston Churchill, the Prime Minister of Britain, at Christmastime in 1941 to speak to Congress in the Senate chamber of a “long and hard war” during World War II.

Mr. Zelenskyy presented to Congress a Ukrainian flag signed by front-line troops that Ms. Pelosi said will eventually be displayed at the U.S. Capitol.

The world has changed much since Ms. Pelosi joined Congress— one of her first trips abroad was in 1991 when she dared to unfurl a pro-democracy banner in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square shortly after the student demonstrations that ended in a massacre.

After the long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, it’s again Russia and China that remain front of her mind.

“The role of Putin in terms of Russia that is a bigger threat than it was when I came to Congress,” she said. A decade after the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, she said, Mr. Putin went up.

“That’s where the fight for democracy is taking place,” she said.

And, she said, despite the work she and others in Congress have done to point out the concerns over China’s military and economic rise, and its human rights record, “that has only gotten worse.”

Often mentioned as someone who could become an actual ambassador— there have been musings that Mr. Biden could nominate her to Rome or beyond— Ms. Pelosi said she is focused on her two-year term in office, no longer the House speaker but the representative from San Francisco.

“Right now my plan is to serve my constituents,” Ms. Pelosi said. “I like having 7,50,000 bosses, rather than one.”

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Russian missile and drone attack in Ukraine kills 22 people

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Russia fired more than 20 cruise missiles and two drones at Ukraine early on April 28, killing at least 22 people, almost all of them when two missiles slammed into an apartment building in a terrifying nighttime attack, officials said. Three children were among the dead.

The missile attacks included the first one against Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, in nearly two months, although there were no reports of any targets hit.

The city government said Ukraine’s air force intercepted 11 cruise missiles and two unmanned aerial vehicles over Kyiv.

The strikes on the nine-story residential building in central Ukraine occurred in Uman, a city located around 215 kilometers (134 miles) south of Kyiv. Twenty people died in that attack, according to the Interior Ministry. They included two 10-year-old children and a toddler.

Also read: Zelenskyy slams ‘barbaric’ Russian strike on museum

Another of the victims was a 75-year-old woman who lived in a neighbouring building and suffered internal bleeding from the huge blast’s shock wave, according to emergency personnel at the scene.

The Ukrainian national police said 17 people were wounded and three children were rescued from the rubble. Nine were hospitalised.

The bombardment was nowhere near the war’s sprawling front lines or active combat zones in eastern Ukraine, where a grinding war of attrition has taken hold. Moscow has frequently launched long-range missile attacks during the 14-month war, often indiscriminately hitting civilian areas.

Ukrainian officials and analysts have alleged such strikes are part of a deliberate intimidation strategy by the Kremlin.

The Russian Defense Ministry said the long-range cruise missiles launched overnight were aimed at places where Ukrainian military reserve units were staying before their deployment to the battlefield.

“The strike has achieved its goal. All the designated facilities have been hit,” Lt. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, the Defense Ministry’s spokesperson, said. He didn’t mention any specific areas or residential buildings getting hit.

Survivors of the Uman strikes recounted terrifying moments as the missiles hit when it still was dark outside.

Halyna, a building resident, said she and her husband were covered in glass by the blast. They saw flames outside their window and scrambled out, but first Halyna checked whether her friend in a neighbouring apartment was OK.

“I was calling, calling her (on the phone), but she didn’t pick up. I even rang the doorbell, but still no answer,” she told The Associated Press.

She used the spare keys from her friend’s apartment and went inside to check on her.

She found her lying dead on her apartment floor.

Halyna refused to provide her last name out of security concerns.

Another building resident, Olha Turina, told the AP that glass from the explosion flew everywhere.

Turina, whose husband is fighting on the front lines, said one of her child’s classmates was missing.

“I don’t know where they are, I don’t know if they are alive,” she said. “I don’t know why we have to go through all this. We never bothered anyone.”

Three body bags lay next to the building as smoke continued to billow hours after the attack.

Soldiers, civilians and emergency crews searched through the rubble outside for more victims, while residents dragged belongings out of the damaged building.

One woman, crying in shock, was taken away by rescue crews for help.

Yulia Norovkova, spokeswoman for emergency rescue crews on the scene, said local volunteers were helping nearly 150 emergency personnel. Two aid stations, including psychologists, were operating, she said.

A 31-year-old woman and her 2-year-old daughter were also killed in the eastern city of Dnipro in another attack, regional Governor Serhii Lysak said. Four people were wounded, and a private home and business were damaged.

The attacks came days after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping held a “long and meaningful” phone call where Xi said his government will send a peace envoy to Ukraine and other nations.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Friday’s bombardment showed the Kremlin isn’t interested in a peace deal.

“Missile strikes killing innocent Ukrainians in their sleep, including a 2-year-old child, is Russia’s response to all peace initiatives,” he tweeted

“The way to peace is to kick Russia out of Ukraine.”

Czech President Petr Pavel, on a visit to Ukraine, was unconvinced by the Kremlin’s past denials of responsibility for such bloodshed.

“The number of attacks on civilian targets leads to an only conclusion that it is intentional,” Mr. Pavel told Czech media. “It’s a clear plan intended to cause chaos, horrors among the civilian population.”

Shortly after Moscow unleashed the barrage, the Russian Defense Ministry posted a photo on Telegram showing a missile launch and saying, “Right on target.”

The message triggered outrage among Ukrainians on social media and some officials, who viewed it as gloating over the casualties.

“The Ministry of Homicide of the Russian Federation is happy that it hit a residential building with a rocket and killed civilians,” said Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine’s presidential office.

In Kyiv, fragments from intercepted missiles or drones damaged power lines and a road in one neighbourhood. No casualties were reported.

In Ukrainka, a town about 10 kilometers (6 miles) south of Kyiv, debris from shot down missiles or drones left holes in the walls of some apartment buildings, and a smashed pink stroller in the street.

“It feels like this nightmare has been going on for two years, but I still can’t wake up,” local resident Olena, 62, said. She asked for her surname not to be used, saying her son lived in a sensitive military area.

Ukraine officials said last week that they had taken delivery of American-made Patriot missiles, providing Kyiv with a long-sought new shield against Russian airstrikes, but there was no word on whether the system was used Friday.

The city’s anti-aircraft system was activated, according to the Kyiv City Administration. Air raid sirens started at about 4 am, and the alert ended about two hours later.

The missile attack was the first on the capital since March 9. Air defenses have thwarted Russian drone attacks more recently.

The missiles were fired from aircraft operating in the Caspian Sea region, according to Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander in Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi.

Overall, he said, Ukraine intercepted 21 of 23 Kh-101 and Kh-555 type cruise missiles launched, as well as the two drones.

The war largely ground to a halt over the winter, becoming a war of attrition as each side has shelled the other’s positions from a distance.

Ukraine has been building up its mechanized brigades with armour supplied by its Western allies, who have also been training Ukrainian troops and sending ammunition, as Kyiv eyes a possible counteroffensive.

Meanwhile, the Moscow-appointed mayor of the Russia-held city of Donetsk, Alexei Kulemzin, said a Ukrainian rocket killed seven civilians in the center of the city Friday. He said the victims died when a minibus was hit.

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G-7 diplomats reject Chinese, North Korean, Russian aggression

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Clockwise from left, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani and Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service (EEAS) Enrique Mora pose for photographs at the start of the fifth working session of a G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting at the Prince Karuizawa hotel in Karuizawa, Japan on April 18, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AP

Top diplomats from the Group of Seven wealthy democracies vowed a tough stance on China’s increasing threats to Taiwan and on North Korea’s unchecked tests of long-range missiles, while building momentum on ways to boost support for Ukraine and punish Russia for its invasion.

Russia’s war in Ukraine consumed much of the agenda on April 17 for the envoys gathered in this Japanese hot spring resort town for talks meant to pave the way for action by G-7 leaders when they meet next month in Hiroshima.

The world is at “turning point” on the fighting in Ukraine and must “firmly reject unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and its threats of the use of nuclear weapons,” Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi told his colleagues, according to a Japanese summary.

For the American delegation, the meeting comes at a crucial moment in the world’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and efforts to deal with China, two issues that G-7 ministers from Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, Italy and the European Union regard as potent challenges to the post-World War II rules-based international order.

A senior U.S. official traveling with Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters that the Biden administration’s goal for the talks is to shore up support for Ukraine, including a major initiative on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure launched at last year’s G-7 gatherings in Germany, as well as to ensure the continued provision of military assistance to Kyiv.

Ramping up punishment against Russia, particularly through economic and financial sanctions that were first threatened by the G-7 in December 2021, before the invasion, will also be a priority, the official said.

Ukraine faces an important moment in coming weeks with Russia’s current offensive largely stalled and Ukraine preparing a counteroffensive. The U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss Blinken’s priorities at the closed-door meetings, said there would be discussion about ways to deepen support for Ukraine’s long-term defense and deterrence capabilities. That might also improve Kyiv’s position for potential negotiations that could end the conflict on its terms.

The role of Japan — the only Asian member of the G-7 — as chairman of this year’s talks provides an opportunity to discuss coordinated action on China. Leaders and foreign ministers of G-7 countries, most recently France and Germany, have recently concluded visits to China, and the diplomats in Karuizawa are expected to discuss their impressions of where the Chinese stand on numerous issues, including the war in Ukraine, North Korea, and Taiwan, which is a particular sore point in U.S.-Chinese relations.

At a private working dinner on Sunday night that was the diplomats’ first formal meeting, Hayashi urged continued dialogue with China on the many global challenges where participation from Beijing is seen as crucial. Among the Chinese interests that are intertwined with those of wealthy democracies are global trade, finance and climate efforts.

But the diplomats are also looking to address China’s more aggressive stance in the region, particularly toward Taiwan, the self-governing democracy that Beijing claims as its own.

Mr. Hayashi told Ministers that outside nations must continue “building a constructive and stable relationship, while also directly expressing our concerns and calling for China to act as a responsible member of the international community,” according to a summary of the closed-door dinner.

China recently sent planes and ships to simulate an encirclement of Taiwan. Beijing has also been rapidly adding nuclear warheads, taking a tougher line on its claim to the South China Sea and painting a scenario of impending confrontation.

The worry in Japan can be seen it its efforts to make a major break from its self-defense-only post-World War II principles, working to acquire preemptive strike capabilities and cruise missiles to counter growing threats.

Mr. Blinken had been due to visit Beijing in February, but the trip was postponed because of a Chinese spy balloon incident over U.S. airspace and has yet to be rescheduled.

Mr. Blinken met briefly with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Forum, but high-level contacts between Washington and Beijing have become rare. Thus, Blinken will be seeking insight from his French and German counterparts on their interactions with the Chinese, the senior U.S. official said.

Despite indications, notably comments from French President Emmanuel Macron, that the G-7 is split over China, the official said there is shared worry among G-7 nations over China’s actions. The official added that the foreign ministers would be discussing how to continue a coordinated approach to China.

Another senior State Department official, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity to describe the closed-door meetings, said the G-7 would release a communique Tuesday that would make clear the group’s strong unity over Russia’s war in Ukraine, China and the broader Indo-Pacific, particularly North Korea, the need to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, and to improve relations with Pacific island nations.

The official downplayed suggestions that fissures are emerging over China. G-7 members, the official said, want to work with China on common challenges, but will “stand up” against Chinese coercion and attempts to water down or circumvent international rules regarding trade and commerce.

The official said that in numerous recent diplomatic engagements with Chinese officials, G-7 members had stressed to Beijing that any supply of weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine would be met with serious consequences, as would attempts to change the status quo of Taiwan. The official said that European members now have a better understanding of how a “roiling” of the status quo would affect their interests, notably their economies.

North Korea is also a key area of worry for Japan and other neighbors in the region.

Since last year, Pyongyang has test-fired around 100 missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles that showed the potential of reaching the U.S. mainland and a variety of other shorter-range weapons that threaten South Korea and Japan.

Mr. Hayashi “expressed grave concern over North Korea’s launch of ballistic missiles with an unprecedented frequency and in unprecedented manners, including the launch in the previous week, and the G-7 Foreign Ministers strongly condemned North Korea’s repeated launches of ballistic missiles,” according to the summary.

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As the Ukraine war grinds on, Russia, India seek ways to keep defence trade afloat

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A year after the Ukraine war began, there are growing speculations about the ability of Russia, hit by heavy western sanctions and faced with dwindling exports, to continue tosupply defence systems to India, one of its most important defence customers. Such concerns are largely rooted in payment problems that India and Russia are yet to resolve, according to sources in the Russian government, defence, and banking sectors. However, experts believe the setbacks that Russian defence exports face due to sanctions could be outweighed by advantages Moscow may have once the war is over. 

There were media reports last month that India may not get the delivery of the two remaining S-400 Triumf missile defence systems that it had ordered in 2018 for around $5.4 billion. The reports cited the 34th Report of the Standing Committee on Defence (2022-23), presented in the Lok Sabha on March 21, where a representative of the Air Force suggested that the sharp decline in the budget estimate for the fiscal year was related to “some of our deliveries not taking place”. 

Also read | Russian arms supplies to India worth $13 billion in past 5 year: Reports

Russian officials refuted the media reports. “Russian-Indian defence cooperation is developing steadily in accordance with previously reached agreements and signed documents,” said the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS), which oversees military-technical cooperation with foreign countries.

When  The Hindu approached, the FSVTS, state-owned defence manufacturer Rostec, its agency for exports and imports of defence-related items Rosoboronexport and Concern VKO Almaz-Antey, the maker of S-400 systems, all refused to provide any additional comments and referred to the March statement. The Russian embassy in New Delhi, too, said there is nothing more to add at this point.

Money first

Off the record, however, officials admit payment remains an issue when it comes to trade with India.

File photo of the Russian S-400 missile air defence systems.

File photo of the Russian S-400 missile air defence systems.
| Photo Credit:
Reuters

Russia is currently fulfilling several major contracts previously signed with India, including, the S-400 systems and two Project 11356 frigates. There are more deals on the plate, including procurement of additional and modernisation of existing Sukhoi Su-30 MKI and upgrade of MIG-29s, where no final terms have been achieved. Several commenters suggested that such contracts will not be signed till the Ukraine conflict is over.

A source in the Russian defence industry said payments remain the key issue for the aircraft deals being negotiated. He noted that while India “doesn’t have many options” when it comes to fighter jets and helicopters, given both the budgets available and urgency in bringing Air Force strength to sanctioned 42 squadrons, the country’s push for increasing indigenous manufacturing is something Russian original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) account for.

Also read | Customised defence deals offered to offset sanctions impact, says senior Russian military official

India’s total imports from Russia rose by five times from $8.5 billion in April 2022 to $41.6 billion in February 2023, driven mainly by oil supplies. A source in the banking industry with direct knowledge of negotiations on payments said almost the entire amount of this $41 billion has now accumulated in the vostro accounts opened by Russian banks with authorised dealer banks in India.

Russian authorities have not yet decided on how to use this money, the person added. There are several options and mechanisms being worked out, including investments within India as well as converting into third countries’ currency. But the most preferable way for Russia to get further payments would be roubles — something that India is not able to do, unlike some other countries. The person did not specify which countries pay Russia directly in roubles.

Aleksei Zakharov, research fellow at the School of International Affairs, Higher School of Economics, pointed out two key impediments in rouble payment: first, the concerns of the Indian financial sector which is overall slowly adopting new mechanisms, and second, lack of trust on the Russian rouble.

“India is hesitant about the rouble after it experienced a serious shock last year, and there is an understanding that it is almost impossible to evaluate it correctly. Therefore, the Indian side has no particular interest in trading in the Russian currency and Delhi tried to rely on payments in the rupees. But then, the question Russia faces is whether it needs such an overabundance in the rupees. There is a discussion about what to do with this overabundance and how to adapt to this currency; it turns out that it is not possible to take the profit out, instead it can only be reinvested”.

Agreed Alexey Kupriyanov, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Moscow. “Indian banks that are afraid to take risks and process the payments are simply losing money. If these excessive fears are overcome, it will greatly help to streamline the cooperation between countries.”

“If there was something that Russia could buy from India for $40 billion, there would be no problems — in that case, the existing rupee-rouble mechanism would be enough. But there is nothing that Russia can import at such a scale,” the banking source quoted above said.

This issue is likely to be discussed on April 17-18, when a delegation from Russia travels to New Delhi for a meeting of the India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC). The Commission will meet in person for the first time after a five-year break — the last session, the 23rd (the first meeting took place in 1994) was held in 2018 in Moscow.

“The two sides agreed to work together to unlock the full potential of India-Russia bilateral trade and economic relations, including through addressing the trade deficit and market access issues,” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated back in March after Minister S. Jaishankar held a virtual meeting with Denis Manturov, Russia’s Deputy PM and Minister of Trade and Industry.

Trade diversification was the focus of the business forum organised by the Russian side in New Delhi on March 29-30. However, defence is the mainstay of the trade between the countries and Russia’s defence industry is facing renewed challenges in recent years.

Declining share

Russian defence exports dropped by  46% in 2022 from the year before. “It is clear that a significant part of the weapons are produced for domestic consumption, for the needs of the armed forces, but even in these conditions, we have already sold $8 billion worth of weapons in the world markets,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said late last year. According to Dmity Shugaev, the head of the FSVTS, Russia exported weapons worth $14.6 billion in 2021. Russia exports weapons to Syria, Iraq, Egypt, India, China, Algeria and Kazakhstan.

According to the latest report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a Swedish think tank, Russian arms exports remained stable between 2008-12 and 2013–17, but fell by 31% between 2013–17 and 2018–22. The annual volumes of arms exports started reducing significantly after 2019, SPIRI noted.

This is both due to Western sanctions, particularly the U.S. defence sanctions expanded in 2017 through the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), aimed at restricting Russia’s ability to raise export revenues, as well as increasing pressure on Russian trade partners, experts note. As a result, Russia’s share of global arms exports fell from 22% in 2013-2017 to 16% in 2018-22, while that of the U.S. increased from 33% to 40% in the same period.

SIPRI data show Russia’s share of arms imports to India fell from 69% in 2012-17 to 46% in 2017-21, while Moscow still remained the key defence supplier to New Delhi. These figures, however, should be put in the context.

Grey zone

Apart from sanctions-related issues outlined above, experts point out that a large chunk of Russia’s defence exports are in a “grey zone” with no data available — and access to any trade data was restricted further by the Russian government since the beginning of the Ukraine invasion. Another important factor is that India’s requirement has changed, and there are certain specific systems that Russia is not able to supply.

Moreover, all foreign players in the Indian defence market were impacted by its policy shift under India’s Atma Nirbhar Bharat and Make In India initiatives, according to Mr. Kupriyanov of the IMEMO.

Also read: Explained | Strains on India-Russia defence cooperation

“India is striving to increase weapons exports and domestic production. The situation where India imports defence items worth billions is no longer valid. Therefore, all the players are looking for new ways and new opportunities in the Indian market — through joint ventures, through setting up such enterprises where R&D would be distributed between partners, or by including Indian domestic manufacturers into OEM’s global production chains,” he said.

Post-war possibilities

While he admitted the situation is not very favourable for Russia, sooner or later the conflict will end. “Russia is likely to emerge from the conflict having a range of weapons that are tested in combat and that are significantly improved and upgraded based on their real-time performance. This will give Russia a great advantage in terms of defence exports,” Mr. Kupriyanov added.

Rostec chief Sergey Chemezov, earlier this year, noted that some of the performing weapons during the Ukraine war, were T-90M tanks, Iskander missiles and various types of multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) as well as combat aircraft such as Ka-52 and Mi-28 helicopters, Su-35S and Su-57 fighters, Cube and Lancet drones. At Aero India in Bangalore, Rosoboronexport chief Alexander Mikheev said Russia has showcased its reconnaissance and strike drone Orlan and long-duration UAV Orion-E, which could be of interest to both military and civilian customers.

He noted that with the increased role of UAVs not just in the battlefield, but for securing critical infrastructure sites, the demand for both UAVs and radar complexes able to detect them could give a boost to Russia’s export portfolio.

But for the big business to take off, the conflict should come to an end first.

Ksenia Kondratieva is an independent journalist based in St. Petersburg, Russia.

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Why purported cross-border attack ups ante in Ukraine war

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Russia has declared that saboteurs from Ukraine crossed into its territory and attacked border villages, a raid that fuelled fears of an escalation in the war as it has dragged into a second year.

A day after Thursday’s purported attack, details of what happened remain scarce and conflicting theories about possible perpetrators and their goals are still swirling.

Also Read | Putin tells Russian security council to tighten ‘anti-terror’ measures

Ukrainian officials have denied involvement and a presidential aide described it as a false-flag attack used by the Kremlin to justify the war in Ukraine.

An obscure group of Russian nationalists who described themselves as part of the Ukrainian military claimed responsibility for the attack, but their status and goals remain unclear.

What did Russian and Ukrainian officials say?

Russian authorities reported the attack on the villages of Lyubechane and Suchany in the Bryansk region early Thursday, saying that several dozen saboteurs infiltrated from Ukraine, killed two civilians and planted explosives.

Russian President Vladimir Putin cancelled a scheduled trip to an event in southern Russia because of what he described as a “terrorist attack” deliberately targeting civilians.

Hours later, the Russian authorities said the intruders were pushed back into Ukraine and targeted by artillery fire.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak described the Russian claims as “a classic deliberate provocation,” saying that Russia “wants to scare its people to justify the attack on another country and the growing poverty after the year of war”. But Podolyak also alleged that the attack could be the work of Russian guerrillas who had rebelled against the Kremlin.

“The partisan movement in the Russian Federation is getting stronger and more aggressive,” he said.

Ukraine’s military intelligence representative, Andrii Cherniak, similarly denied Ukraine’s involvement while also alleging that Russia is facing an uprising among its own disgruntled people.

“This was done by the Russians, Ukraine has nothing to do with it,” he told AP.

Mr. Cherniak noted that a group calling itself the Russian Volunteer Corps had claimed responsibility for the attack.

What is the Russian Volunteer Corps

The Russian Volunteer Corps released a video featuring its members standing outside a post office in one of the villages and urging the Russians to rebel against Mr. Putin.

The group has described itself as “a volunteer formation” of Ukraine’s armed forces. Little is known about the group, the number of its members and its ties, if any, with the Ukrainian military.

Russian bloggers identified some of the men who appeared in the video filmed in the village of Lyubechane as former members of Russia’s radical nationalist groups who had moved to Ukraine several years ago.

Ukrainian New voice-NV news portal quoted Ilya Bogdanov, who identified himself as a member of the Corps, confirming that his colleagues who crossed into the Bryansk region were serving in the Ukrainian army.

Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov said that the Corps’ claim could be a Ukrainian propaganda effort intended to embarrass Russia.

“It’s quite possible if our propagandists believe it would be more efficient to cast it as a heroic feat and pretend that there is an entire corps of them,” he told the AP.

Mr. Zhdanov noted that despite its flashy name, the group could include just a handful of Russians who signed a contract to fight alongside the Ukrainian military.

What do experts say?

Security analysts say it’s hard to figure out quickly who was behind the attack.

Mark Cancian, a senior adviser for the International Security Program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, argued that Ukraine could have launched the attack to force Russia to pull back some of its forces from the front line to tighten the border.

“If I had to bet I would say it’s the real thing,” Cancian said. “I can see why Ukraine might want to do this. Most of the border is not contested at the moment, so Ukraine might want to be forcing Russia to guard more of its borders, maybe pull some forces out of the Donbass.”

Eleonora Tafuro, a Russia expert at the ISPI think tank in Milan, said it appears possible the attack was carried out by the Russian Volunteer Corps to foment a sense of insecurity among the local population.

“The area is very exposed to fighting,” she said. “It could be a message: You are vulnerable. You are exposed.’”

Brad Bowman, senior director of the Centre on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, warned against quickly rushing to conclusions, noting that the Kremlin could be interested in rallying the public as the war drags on.

“The Kremlin’s information warfare efforts are meant to deceive Russians so they will believe that Russia is under grave threat and will be willing to fight and die in an illegal war of aggression,” he said.

And William Courtney, who served as ambassador to Kazakhstan and Georgia and is now a senior fellow at the RAND Corp., a non-profit research institute, argued that the purported attack could be a false-flag operation.

“It has an engineered quality to it that was carried out to make Ukraine look like a terrorist state,” Courtney said.

What are the consequences of the attack?

The purported attack came as an embarrassment for Mr. Putin, who had told officials to tighten protection of the long and porous border with Ukraine earlier in the week.

It has caused outrage among Russian hawks, who harshly criticised the Kremlin for failing to protect the border and mount a quick and forceful retaliation.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the rogue millionaire who owns the Wagner Group military company, mocked the authorities for idly watching the crossing of another Russian red line. And Ramzan Kadyrov, the regional leader of Chechnya, has challenged the Kremlin to up the ante by introducing martial law.

Hawkish commentators and military bloggers have derided the Kremlin’s indecision, calling for strikes on Ukraine’s presidential office and the deployment of hit men to target top Ukrainian officials.

It remains unclear if Mr. Putin could use the incident to double down.

In his initial statement, the Russian leader cast the purported attack as proof that Russia did the right thing by invading Ukraine, but he didn’t signal an intention to change the status of the operation or ramp up strikes.

On Friday, Mr. Putin had a video call with members of his Security Council, saying in opening remarks that it would focus on tightening protection against terrorist attacks but giving no details.

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Putin orders tightening of Ukraine border as drones hit Russia

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Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the border with Ukraine tightened on Tuesday after several drones attacked inside Russian territory, including one that crashed just 100 kilometres (60 miles) from Moscow in an alarming development for Russian defences.

The drones caused no injuries but raised questions about the Kremlin’s security more than a year after Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour.

Moscow blamed Kyiv for the attacks. Ukrainian officials did not immediately claim responsibility, but they similarly avoided directly acknowledging responsibility for past strikes and sabotage while emphasising Ukraine’s right to hit any target in Russia.

Also Read | U.N. chief points to ‘massive’ rights violations in Ukraine

Although Mr. Putin did not refer to any specific attacks in a speech in the Russian capital, his comments came hours after the drones targeted several areas in southern and western Russia. Authorities closed the airspace over St. Petersburg in response to what some reports said was a drone.

Also on Tuesday, several Russian television stations aired a missile attack warning that officials blamed on a hacking attack.

The drone attacks on Monday night and Tuesday morning targeted regions inside Russia along the border with Ukraine and deeper into the country, according to local Russian authorities.

A drone fell near the village of Gubastovo, 100 kilometers (60 miles) from Moscow, Andrei Vorobyov, governor of the region surrounding the Russian capital, said in an online statement.

The drone did not inflict any damage, Vorobyov said, but it likely targeted “a civilian infrastructure object”.

Pictures of the drone showed it was a Ukrainian-made model with a reported range of up to 800 kilometres (nearly 500 miles) but no capacity to carry a large load of explosives.

Russian forces early on Tuesday shot down a Ukrainian drone over the Bryansk region, local Gov. Aleksandr Bogomaz said in a Telegram post.

Three drones also targeted Russia’s Belgorod region on Monday night, with one flying through an apartment window in its namesake capital, local authorities reported. Regional Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov said the drones caused minor damage to buildings and cars.

The Russian Defence Ministry said Ukraine used drones to attack facilities in the Krasnodar region and neighbouring Adygea.

It said the drones were brought down by electronic warfare assets, adding that one of them crashed into a field and another diverted from its flight path and missed an infrastructure facility it was supposed to attack.

While Ukrainian drone strikes on the Russian border regions of Bryansk and Belgorod are not unusual, the hits on the Krasnodar and Adygea regions further south were noteworthy.

A fire broke out at an oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar region on Monday, Russia’s state RIA Novosti agency reported. Russian Telegram channels claimed that two drones exploded near the depot.

Some Russian commentators described the drone attacks as an attempt by Ukraine to showcase its capability to strike areas deep behind the lines, foment tensions in Russia and rally the Ukrainian public. Some Russian war bloggers described the raids as a possible rehearsal for a bigger, more ambitious attack.

Last year, Russian authorities repeatedly reported shooting down Ukrainian drones over annexed Crimea. In December, the Russian military said Ukraine used drones to hit two bases for long-range bombers deep inside Russian territory.

Separately, the government of St. Petersburg — Russia’s second-largest city about 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) north of the border with Ukraine — said early on Tuesday that it was temporarily halting all departures and arrivals at the city’s main airport, Pulkovo. It did not give a reason for the move.

Hours earlier, unconfirmed reports on Russia’s Telegram social network referred to the airspace over St. Petersburg being shut down and to overflights by Russian warplanes. It wasn’t immediately clear whether this was connected to drone attacks in Russia’s south.

The Russian military said its air defence forces in western Russia conducted drills on “detection, interception and identification” of enemy targets in its airspace, and in coordination with civilian air traffic services in an emergency situation.

The Russian Defence Ministry did not specifically mention St. Petersburg, but its statement appeared designed to explain the temporary closure of the airspace.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to comment on the situation in St. Petersburg, urging reporters to wait for details from the country’s aviation authorities or the military. He noted that Mr. Putin had “full information” on the situation.

Speaking at Russia’s main security agency, the FSB, Mr. Putin urged the service to tighten security on the Ukraine border.

Russian media reported Tuesday that an air raid alarm interrupted the programming of several TV channels and radio stations in several Russian regions.

Footage posted by some news sites showed TV sets displaying a yellow sign with a person heading to a bomb shelter, with a female voice repeating: “Attention! Air raid alarm. Everyone should head to a shelter immediately.”

Russia’s Emergency Ministry said in an online statement that the announcement was a hoax “resulting from a hacking of the servers of radio stations and TV channels in some regions of the country”.

In other developments, four people were killed and five others wounded on Tuesday by renewed Russian shelling of the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, regional Gov. Oleksandr Prokudin said in a Telegram.

A 68-year-old man was also killed as Russian forces shelled Kupiansk, a town in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region, its Gov. Oleh Syniehubov said.

The fiercest fighting continued to be in eastern areas of Ukraine, where Russia wants control over all four of the provinces it illegally annexed in September.

Ukrainian officials said that Russian forces have deployed additional troops and equipment, including modern T-90 tanks, in those areas.

Meanwhile, satellite photos analysed by AP appeared to show a Beriev A-50 early warning aircraft was parked at a Belarus air base just before a claimed attack by partisans there.

Images from Planet Labs PBC shows the A-50, a late Soviet-era aircraft known for its distinctive rotodome above its fuselage, parked on the apron of the Machulishchy Air Base near Minsk, Belarus’ capital, on February 19.

A lower-resolution image taken on February 23 showed a similarly shaped aircraft still parked there, though heavy cloud cover has blocked any images since.

Belarusian opposition organisation BYPOL claimed that guerrillas damaged the A-50 in an attack Sunday.

AP has been unable to independently confirm the claimed attack, which both Belarus and Russia have yet to acknowledge.

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