Tag: marketgauge

Ready Yourself for 2024 With Macro to Micro Analysis

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For the new year, we have given you an extensive 3-pronged look at the markets.

First, we have the general outlook for the economy and markets through the Outlook 2024. This is the general outlook for 2024, including the recap of 2023 and how the predictions I made then played out. It includes a comparison in inflation and disinflation patterns of the 1970s and now. It also includes all the indices and the general outlook for key sectors and the bonds, dollar, metals, and so on.

Moreover, we look at the Economic Modern Family and their outliers through charts and analysis. Also included are overall trends to watch, plus picks.

One other area I cover in the Outlook 2024 is the teachings of Raymond Lo and how he sees the upcoming Year of the Dragon. Part of my comments on his analysis is based on this statement by Lo:

“Many has the misunderstanding that the Dragon is glamorous auspicious animal and will always bring good luck. To the contrary, Dragon and Dog in the 12-animal system is called the “Gate to Heaven and Hell” or the “Net of Heaven and Hell”.

General Thoughts

2024 could see gains; however, we are agnostic and definitely looking to charts. SPY needs to hold 4600 as our line in the sand, and small caps need to hold over 2000. Plus, in January, we will have a 6-month calendar reset this year with the election; instruments that fail the calendar range lows could set the stage for a broader selloff, while instruments that rally above the calendar range highs can be the bigger winners, at least for the first half of the year. Nonetheless, we have keen eyes on junk bonds, which, despite rallying, have well underperformed the indices. If they hold, great; if not, we take that as a warning.

With the anticipation of Fed lowering rates multiple times, we also want to see Fed Fund rates stabilize and not fall too dramatically, as those could be the signs of recession that we seemingly avoided in 2023. Additionally, we expounded with Daily newsletters.

From Gold and Silver

For last year’s Outlook, I wrote:

Perhaps our biggest callout for a major rally in 2023 is in gold.

Here we are over $2000 and, although gold has not doubled in price, it did rise by 25%.

For 2024, we stay with our call for higher gold prices. I am looking for a move to $2400, provided gold continues to hold $1980.

That statement was from December 1st. To add to that statement:

Trends for 2024 — Gold and Silver start their Last Hurrah.

From 17 Predictions

With certain areas of inflation coming down, although still higher than what numbers suggest, the discussion of the rate hike cycle at the end is controversial. Statistically, there has been a major financial failure at the end of each rate hike cycle since 1965.

Currently, the catalyst for financial stress could be the rising debt, rising spending, geopolitical issues impacting supply chain and a contentious election year. And anything that gooses inflation will stop the Fed from cutting.

January 2024 will see a new 6-month calendar range reset — it will be very important this time, with many predicting the end of the first quarter with a selloff. Although the stats are on the side of a higher market, this year of the dragon suggests some irritation that could turn the market on its side with more volatility.

To be prepared check out our predictions.

From The Vanity Trade 2024: All About Me!

According to Wikipedia, “Self-help or self-improvement is a self-directed improvement of oneself—economically, physically, intellectually, or emotionally—often with a substantial psychological basis.”

In the Outlook 2024, I quote Raymond Lo yet again,

“The Dragon is considered a ‘Star of Arts.’ The industries that will perform better in the Year of the Dragon will be related to the Metal and Wood elements. Metal industries are beauty and skin care; wood industries are media, fashion….”

This got me thinking about the consumer and the habits of 2023 and how they could continue or change in 2024.

With disposable income still quite high, consumers who spent the last half of 2023 in YOLO or revenge spending go into vanity mode in 2024.

Fashion, beauty, skincare, elective surgeries, self-help, diet drugs, and maybe dating stocks do well.

This daily includes lots of picks to put on your radar.

Click this link to get your free copy of the Outlook 2024 and stay in the loop!

Thank you, all my loyal readers, followers, clients and colleagues, for making 2023 so successful. Here is to a VERY HEALTHY, HAPPY and PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!!!

This is for educational purposes only. Trading comes with risk.

If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at [email protected], our Head of Institutional Sales. Cell: 612-518-2482.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

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Grow your wealth today and plant your money tree!

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Follow Mish on X @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish and team look at 2023 and make several predictions on commodities and trends for 2024 and vanity stocks in Benzinga Pre Market Prep.

Mish discusses gold, silver and why self care and “all about me” can trend in 2024 in this video from Yahoo! Finance.

Coming Up:

January 2: The Final Bar with David Keller, StockCharts TV & Making Money with Charles Payne, Fox Business & BNN Bloomberg

January 3: Real Vision IP Group Special Presentation

January 5: Daily Briefing, Real Vision

January 22: Your Daily Five, StockCharts TV

January 24: Yahoo! Finance

Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets

  • S&P 500 (SPY): 480 all-time highs, 460 underlying support.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): 200 pivotal.
  • Dow (DIA): Needs to hold 370.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 410 pivotal.
  • Regional Banks (KRE): 47 support, 55 resistance.
  • Semiconductors (SMH): 174 pivotal support to hold this month.
  • Transportation (IYT): Needs to hold 250.
  • Biotechnology (IBB): 130 pivotal support.
  • Retail (XRT): The longer this stays over 70.00 the better!

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education



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#Ready #Macro #Micro #Analysis

Bonds, Secular Bear Market, and the Impact on Small Caps

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Bonds have had one of the worst years in modern times and one of the fastest rates of interest rate rises.

The good news is the market has absorbed the bond’s performance. A better risk-on environment is when the SPY outperforms the long bonds. The same is true with junk bonds outperforming long bonds. Another indicator of risk-on.

The yield curve remains inverted — or the potential recession indicator has not, to date, caused a recession. Hence talk of a soft landing. Will yields tap out at 5.5-5.75%? Many think so. However, higher for longer seems more likely.

Furthermore, inflation is not quite done. The PCE, due out this week, is at 4%, not 2% And just as it took from 2020 until spring 2022 to see inflation soar then peak, it is likely we will not see the impact on these rates until 2024 or even 2025. Talking technical, bonds do not look likely to rally from here (TLT). However, we are watching the October 2022 lows carefully.

A potential double bottom exists if TLTs can clear back above 98. A move under 95, though, points more to a retest and possible break of the low 91.85.

How does this impact small caps?

Small caps, as measured by IWM, are key for the fall and into 2024. You can also look at SML, the S&P 600. Over the weekend, we covered that the Russell 2000 (IWM) could be forming an inverted head-and-shoulders bottom going back from the start of 2023. First though, it must hold 180 and clear 190. No small task.

Small caps are related to commercial real estate, so that is a caveat.

Why could small caps do well? The Government has spent a lot of money on US manufacturing, and the Dallas-fed index fell less than expected. In the US quest for more independence on goods, we must look to costs and labor for the trend to sustain. It must be noted though, that prices and wages paid soared. 

The IWM chart shows a lack of leadership thus far against the SPY. The Real Motion Indicator has no real divergence from price. Nonetheless, IWM needs more everything-more rally, more leadership, and more momentum.

Our small caps quant model has done well this year, buying companies with earnings growth. The basket is an interesting combination of semiconductor companies, home building and beauty staples.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at [email protected].

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish served as guest host for the Monday, August 28 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar! Mish puts her own spin on the Market Recap, starting with the indices and then exploring sectors using her “Economic Modern Family” analysis. She then sits down with Keith Schneider for an insightful interview. Keith discusses topics such as agricultural commodities, biotechnology, and volatility.

Mish and Charles discuss a secular bear market in bonds and why gold could outshine expectations in this appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne.

Mish and Paul Gruenwald discuss soft landings, recession, inflation, GDP and China on Yahoo Finance.

Mish looks at a selection of popular instruments and outlines their possible direction of travel in this appearance on CMC Markets.

Mish talks NVDA and “Trading the Weather” in these two appearanceson Business First AM.

Read Mish’s commentary on Gold in these two articles from Kitco.

Mish and Nicole discuss where to park your money, barring any watershed event, in this video from Schwab Network.

On the Friday, August 18 edition of StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five, Mish covers bonds, the dollar, risk-off indications and several key commodities with actionable levels to consider.

Mish joins Maggie Lake of Real Vision to discuss what rising bond yields mean for investors across the market landscape, what comes next for stocks and commodities, and why she is taking profits here in the growth and AI stocks.

Mish shows why January and now the July reset worked in this appearance on Business First AM.

Mish discusses Alibaba’s stock price in this appearance on CNBC Asia.

In this guest appearance on David Keller’s The Final Bar on StockCharts TV, talks higher rates and why China may deserve a second look for investors.

Mish discusses inflation, bonds, calendar ranges and places to park your money on the Benzinga Morning Prep show.

Mish covers why August is a good time for caution in this appearance on Business First AM.

Mish and Jared go over oil and what might happen with small caps and regional banks in this appearance on Yahoo! Finance.

Coming Up:

Mish will be on break starting August 30 and return Tuesday, September 5th.

September 7: Singapore Breakfast Radio, 89.3 FM

September 12: BNN Bloomberg & Charting Forward, StockCharts TV

September 13: Investing with IBD podcast

October 29-31: The Money Show

  • S&P 500 (SPY): 440 now back to pivotal.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): Popped off the key support. 185 pivotal.
  • Dow (DIA): Will watch to see if it can back over 347.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 363 pivotal.
  • Regional Banks (KRE): Needs to hold 44 to be convincing.
  • Semiconductors (SMH): 150 back to pivotal.
  • Transportation (IYT): 239 still support to hold, with 252 biggest overhead resistance.
  • Biotechnology (IBB): Compression between 124-130.
  • Retail (XRT): The 6-month calendar range low is 62.90 — needs to clear it.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

Mish Schneider

About the author:
Mish Schneider serves as Director of Trading Education at MarketGauge.com. For nearly 20 years, MarketGauge.com has provided financial information and education to thousands of individuals, as well as to large financial institutions and publications such as Barron’s, Fidelity, ILX Systems, Thomson Reuters and Bank of America. In 2017, MarketWatch, owned by Dow Jones, named Mish one of the top 50 financial people to follow on Twitter. In 2018, Mish was the winner of the Top Stock Pick of the year for RealVision.

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A Foray into Currency Pairs

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Teaching an old dog new tricks means that the tricks might be new, but the notion of doing tricks is familiar. Case in point: currencies and trading currency futures.

We have traded ETFs UUP and FXE (dollar and Euro) in the past, and I have been vocal through the years on predicting dollar tops and bottoms relative to other currencies. What I have not really done much of before is look at currency pair futures. Until lately.

Because of requests from traders that live overseas, we have been doing research, education and trade ideas focused on currencies and the futures, rather than ETFs. With that, I wish to share 2 charts (on the same currency pair) that I find interesting.

The platform we are using for the charts is TradingView. A couple of pointers ahead of the analysis.

First, the ratio is defined by the lead currency. For the Dollar to Yen charts, this is how the dollar looks in comparison. So if the chart breaks out you are buying the first currency against the second one.

Secondly, we have our Real Motion Indicator on the TradingView platform. The rules are the same as when RM is posted on any other charting platform.

The first chart of the Dollar versus the Japanese Yen features a look since February-March 2023. The second chart is the Dollar versus the Japanese Yen looking back to the breakdown in November 2022. From February until mid-May, the dollar rose in price against the yen to the 200-day moving average twice and failed to clear that moving average. On May 17th, the dollar broke out and held that 200-DMA and is now consolidating between 138 to 140.50.

Real Motion is more interesting in that the red dots (or momentum indicator) sits right on (slightly above) its 200-DMA. The price had cleared it on May 17th. Now that momentum is finally catching up, it seems that a move above 140.75 is compelling. The longer-term view chart tells us if the USD/YEN does indeed clear this resistance, it could run to 142, or higher.

The day it broke down hard, November 10, 2022, the selling began once price fell below 145.  That makes that level the strongest resistance.

Here are the fundamental implications:

  • The USD/JPY currency pair has traditionally had a close correlation with U.S. Treasuries.
  • When interest rates head higher, Treasury bond prices go down, which lifts the U.S. dollar, strengthening USD/JPY prices.
  • If the USD does indeed break out, we do have to ask, what might the implication be not only for yields, but also for the S&P 500?

Perhaps we are running too rich?

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish offers her technical forecasts for gold, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and WTI Crude Oil ahead of today’s CPI report on CMC Markets.

Mish Schneider and TG Watkins continue their chat about the business of trading in this video from StockCharts TV. Topics range from their work/home life balance, how being a consumer does or does not play into their trading decisions, and what they do in their free time to unwind.

Mish and Nicole Petallides go over rates, key sectors and the economy in this video from TD Ameritrade. They also discuss what raw materials are coming into vogue.

Mish and Jon talk about what could make markets continue or reverse and what to buy right now on BNN Bloomberg’s Opening Bell.

Mish and Charles talk inflation fears, the “wall of worry” and trading large-caps on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne.

The first 5 months of 2023 have been rallying on optimism going forward. Will that continue for the next few months? Mish digs into that question in this Twitter Spaces conversation with Wolf Financial.

Mish discusses impacts of weather, labor market and the FED on tap on Fox Business’ Coast to Coast with Neil Cavuto.

The US dollar rallied following a positive US jobs report last Friday, but could the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision halt the greenback’s rise? Mish offers her views on USD/JPY, the S&P 500, and light crude oil futures on CMC Markets.

Mish talks GME (Gamestop) and more on Business First AM.

Where is the US economy actually heading? Rajeev Suri of Orios discusses this question and what trends suggest with Mish in this video.

Mish joins Rajeev Suri of Orios Venture partners to discuss the Fed, inflation, and buybacks in this video on LinkedIn.

In this episode of StockCharts TV’s ChartChats, Mish Schneider and TG Watkins (creator of the Moxie Indicator) sit down for a candid chat about working with other StockCharts contributors. Learn what TGs strategy for trading is, and how the the Moxie Indicator came to be. Mish shares her background and how she got started in the industry.

With Congress having reached a deal after months of debt ceiling talks, what direction could the US dollar move in, and what could this mean for the USD/JPY? Mish explores the market movements in this appearance on CMC Markets.

Mish joins Rajeev Suri of Orios Venture partners to discuss the trend toward a risk-on situation in this video on LinkedIn.

Mish weighs in on the overnight slump across the board on the benchmarks and where the momentum is heading on Singapore Breakfast, available on Spotify.

Mish explains how reversal patterns could come to the fore this week in this appearance on CMC Markets.

Mish joins Rajeev Suri of Orios Venture partners to discuss the possibility of economic stagflation in this video on LinkedIn.

Mish discusses how AI is being used to invest in this article for BNN Bloomberg.

Coming Up:

June 13: Daily Briefing on Real Vision

June 14: CMC Live Trading in London 1:30 ET

June 22: Forex Premarket Show with Dale Pinkert

June 23: Your Daily Five on StockCharts TV

  • S&P 500 (SPY): Another move higher-starting to think we are close to a top 440 target.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): 23-month MA 193 still a bit away.
  • Dow (DIA): 34,000 in the Dow-thinking next 6-months not as pretty.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 370 max target.
  • Regional Banks (KRE): 42 support, 44 pivotal.
  • Semiconductors (SMH): 150 now maj0r support. Lots of models took profits into this run.
  • Transportation (IYT): 237 area the 23-month moving average.
  • Biotechnology (IBB): 121-135 range.
  • Retail (XRT): Cleared the 200-DMA at 62.95; if this is good, it will stay above that level.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

Mish Schneider

About the author:
Mish Schneider serves as Director of Trading Education at MarketGauge.com. For nearly 20 years, MarketGauge.com has provided financial information and education to thousands of individuals, as well as to large financial institutions and publications such as Barron’s, Fidelity, ILX Systems, Thomson Reuters and Bank of America. In 2017, MarketWatch, owned by Dow Jones, named Mish one of the top 50 financial people to follow on Twitter. In 2018, Mish was the winner of the Top Stock Pick of the year for RealVision.

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Subscribe to Mish’s Market Minute to be notified whenever a new post is added to this blog!

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#Foray #Currency #Pairs