Tag: islamic state

IS-Khorasan’s attacks in Russia, Iran point to an Islamic State resurgence | Analysis

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In June 2015, a few months after the Islamic State (IS) announced the establishment of its Wilayat Khorasan (Khorasan Province), the Taliban wrote a letter to the then IS chief, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, asking him to stop recruiting jihadists in Afghanistan. The letter, signed by the then political committee chief of the Taliban, Mullah Akhtar Mansour (who would take over the insurgency in a month and be killed by a U.S. air strike in May 2016), said there was room for “only one flag and one leadership” in the fight to re-establish Islamic rule in Afghanistan. But the IS faction, which came to be known as the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), did not stop recruiting disgruntled Taliban fighters. In the subsequent years, the IS-K attacked the Taliban for holding talks with the “crusaders” (read the U.S.) and abandoning jihad. It launched a series of attacks, mainly targeting Afghanistan’s Shia-Hazara minority.       


ALSO READ | The View From India | Why did the Islamic State attack Russia?

Today, the IS-K has emerged as the most powerful and most ambitious branch of the Islamic State networks. It has training centres in the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. It has recruited thousands of disgruntled Central Asians. It has stepped up attacks in recent months across the Eurasian landmass, including the January twin bombings of Kerman, Iran, a strike on a church in Istanbul in the same month and a massive attack on a concert hall in the outskirts of Moscow on March 22. Armed gunmen opened fire at the Crocus City Concert Hall and threw explosives, killing at least 137 people and wounding nearly 200 others, in one of the worst terrorist attacks in Russia in years. Russian authorities have arrested and charged four Tajik nationals for the attack.  

The origins 

When the Islamic State announced the formation of the Khorasan Province, referring to an area encompassing Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia, in January 2015, the group’s immediate strategy was to exploit the divisions within the main jihadist groups operating in the region. It appointed Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) commander Hafiz Saeed Khan as its leader and former Afghan Taliban commander Abdul Rauf Aliza as his deputy (both were killed in U.S. strikes). It attracted members from different militant organisations such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the Haqqani Network and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan into its fold, according to the U.S.-based Combating Terrorism Centre.

The IS-K declared its allegiance to Baghdadi. In operational tactics and ideology, it followed its parental organisation. The key goal is to establish “Islamic rule” in the “province” and for that they are ready to wage “jihad”. “There is no doubt that Allah the Almighty has blessed us with jihad in the land of Khorasan since a long time ago, and it is from the grace of Allah that we fought any disbeliever who entered the land of Khorasan. All of this is for the sake of establishing the Shariah,” the IS-K said in a video message in 2015.


ALSO READ | Terror in Moscow: On concerns over the Islamic State

When the IS in Iraq and Syria came under pressure in 2015 and 2016, the core organisation shifted its focus to Afghanistan. The IS was losing territories to Kurdish militias in Syria and government forces and Shia militias in Iraq. In Afghanistan, a divided country with the government’s writ hardly reaching its hinterlands, the IS saw an opportunity to rebuild its organisation. Having built its base in eastern Afghanistan, the IS-K issued propaganda messages, calling on Muslim youth across Asia to join the group. Many radicalised youth, including dozens from India, travelled to Afghanistan to either join the IS or live an “Islamic life” under the Caliphate’s rule.

Rivalry with Taliban

The Taliban did not like its monopoly over violent jihad being challenged by another organisation. Also, the Taliban are a tribal, nationalist militant force, backed by Pakistan, whereas the IS-K doesn’t believe in national borders—they are global jihadists fighting for a transnational Islamist Caliphate.

“The leadership of Daesh [IS] is independent, the goals of Daesh are independent,” Omar Khorasani, who was the IS-K’s top leader, said in an interview in 2021. “We have a global agenda and so when people ask who can really represent Islam and the whole Islamic community, of course, we’re more attractive.” The ideological and operational differences led to open clashes between the IS-K and the Taliban. When the Taliban seized Kabul and took over prisons in August 2021, they freed several of their members, but executed Khorasani and other IS-K militants. Shahab al-Muhajir has been leading the terrorist group as its “Emir” since Khorasani was arrested in April 2020.

Why Russia and Iran?

The U.S. has carried out a number of targeted attacks, killing several of the ISKP’s leaders. In April 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered troops to drop the ‘Mother of all Bombs’, the most powerful non-nuclear bomb, on IS caves in eastern Afghanistan. But despite the U.S.’s targeted bombings and the Taliban’s counter-attacks on the ground, the IS-K has continued to expand its operations. When the Taliban established its regime in Kabul, the IS-K proclaimed that it is the real jihadist outfit. Militants from Central Asia who were part of the Islamic State Caliphate swelled the IS-K’s ranks after they relocated to Afghanistan.

Members of the Russian Emergencies Ministry carry out search and rescue operations at the Crocus City Hall concert venue after a shooting attack and fire, outside Moscow, Russia
| Photo Credit:
Reuters

The IS-K also launched propaganda videos targeting Afghanistan’s ethnic minorities such as Tajiks and Uzbeks, who were excluded by the Taliban’s Pashtun-only regime. Russia and its President Vladimir Putin emerged as the key enemy in the IS’s propaganda videos. After the Moscow attack, the IS said its soldiers had killed a “lot of Christians”. It also said Russia had “blood of Muslims on its hands”, referring to its military operations in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Syria.

Particularly in Syria, where IS was founded in 2014 amid the country’s civil war, it had grand ambitions, which were thwarted by Russia’s 2015 intervention. The IS captured eastern Syrian cities of Raqqa and Der Ezzour in 2013 and 2024, and it wanted to topple the regime of President Bashar al-Assad and capture Damascus, the seat of power of the Umayyad Caliphate in the seventh century. But Russia’s intervention, along with help from Iran, made sure that President Assad survived the civil war.

In 2017, when the IS captured the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra, Russians fought along with the Syrian troops to liberate the city. Subsequently, the IS’s physical Caliphate was crushed by a host of forces — Kurds, Iraqis, Syrians and Shia militias with air cover from Russia and the U.S. Now, the IS-K sees ‘Christian’ Russia and ‘Rejectionist’ Iran (in the IS lexicon, Shias are “rejectionists”, who reject the first three Caliphs of Sunni Islam) as top enemies.

Today, the IS-K wants to be the centre of global jihadism. Back-to-back attacks in different places from Istanbul to Kerman to Moscow suggest that the group is on a path to revival, six years after its physical Caliphate was destroyed. Chaos in West Asia, a base in Afghanistan, and foot soldiers from Central Asia are all helping the group expand its activities, with highly sophisticated internet propaganda.

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Interview: Why the Islamic State group is ‘returning to its roots’ in the Syrian desert

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Some of the remaining members of the Islamic State organisation – those who escaped death or imprisonment after losing their territory in 2019 – have made their way to Badia, a vast desert in the centre of Syria. The IS group carries out frequent attacks on the nomadic Bedouins who make up the local population in this remote region. Since the IS group moved into the area, there has been a spike in violent attacks between February and April of each year, when Bedouins venture into the desert to gather rare and valuable truffles.

Traditionally, during this season, the Bedouins travel in convoys into the desert to harvest the truffles, which are considered to be some of the best in the region. However, in recent years, armed Islamic State group terrorists have been attacking these convoys, murdering dozens of people, including women and children.

The worst of the attacks took place on February 17 in the Al-Sukhnah region, not far from the city of Palmyra. A total of 46 members of the Beni Khaled tribe were murdered while they were out gathering.

Our team spoke to terrorism expert Gregory Waters, who documents the Islamic State group’s activities for the Counter Extremism Project. Our interview with him has been transcribed below and lightly edited for clarity and length.

>> Read more : Investigation: The deadly attacks on Syrian truffle hunters by the Islamic State group

Who carried out the Al-Sukhnah attack on February 17, 2023?

To determine who was behind the Al Sukhnah attack, we have to look at contextual factors. This attack occurred in an area outside Al Sukhnah that has, according to security forces, been controlled by the IS group for many years. Essentially, the regime never fully took it back from the group. 

The Bedouins were out gathering in an area controlled by the IS group, which supports the idea that it was the IS group that was behind the attack. 

The other thing to consider is that this attack on the convoy of Bedouins came in the midst of a period of heavy IS group attacks against regime security forces, all around this area. These attacks included both sustained battles against hardened positions as well as ambushes.

The IS group is most effective when no one can see its movements, when no one can find its camps, its hideouts and its caches. They risk losing that advantage when civilians wander into these really remote areas. So, what’s it going to do? Well, it’s going to attack the civilians. 

Some of the Syrian security forces that went to the area in response to the attack reported that some of the victims were not just killed, they were left decapitated and with notes pinned to them, warning others of a similar fate if they collaborated with the regime. 

What type of attacks does the IS group carry out in the Badia? What goals do they hope to achieve?

In 2020, we saw a huge uptick in attacks carried out by the IS group. This includes both attacks being directly claimed by the group, which publishes videos and pictures from central Syria, and reports from pro-regime Facebook pages or news outlets, which report on regime soldiers being killed in the region.

In 2020, the frequency of attacks began to increase as did the severity of attacks. One of them even killed a Russian general.

Finally, in early 2021, there was a really big pushback on the IS group carried out by the regime as well as Russia and Iran. As a result of these new operations, the attacks carried out by the IS group decreased for about a year, until late last year. 

Right now, the IS group is returning to its roots, conducting an insurgency the same way it did in Iraq in the early 2000s. It’s using small groups of well-armed militants driving around on motorcycles or in pickup trucks with machine guns. In some cases, they may have some heavy weaponry, but mostly they are just doing hit and run attacks all the time. Sometimes, it’s just shooting from far away at military patrols to scare them away or keep them from patrolling in certain areas. 

Sometimes, however, their attacks involve ambushing small, isolated outposts. And, of course, they’re also heavily using mines and IEDs. The whole region has become heavily mined because the regime and its allies use mines as well. Regime soldiers often place them near highways, oil and gas fields and outposts. 

Since 2019, how many attacks have occurred in this region? How can you be sure about the identity of the assaillants? 

Since the beginning of 2019, there have been over 900 confirmed attacks. When we say “confirmed”, that means that the attack definitely happened and was likely carried out by the IS group.

You know, you can never say 100 percent who is behind every attack. The IS group explicitly claims some of these attacks, publishing posts that sometimes include videos or pictures. But a lot of the attacks go unclaimed. However, when you see [Syrian army] soldiers being killed, it’s fairly easy to say that this is the IS group. With civilians, it is harder to say who is behind it. 

A lot of times, you can get an idea based on the context of where it occurred. There are places in central Syria that are still territorially under the control of the IS group, but these areas are uninhabited. The group doesn’t control any towns and villages. 

But there are desert areas that are controlled by the IS group and when you see civilians killed in those areas, you can certainly establish that it was the IS group.  

Other times, these attacks on civilians come amidst a broader IS group offensive against regime forces in the same areas. 

Why doesn’t the IS group claim all of these attacks? 

We’re used to seeing the IS group as a consensus group with flashy media that claims everything single thing it does. This was a key part of its ability to expand around the world and get so many supporters when it was really coming on the scene in the early 2010s. But it no longer holds territory, it’s not trying to recruit people and move them into Syria. In fact, it’s explicitly said, “Don’t come to central Syria to join us”.

You can see it’s taken on a more sophisticated and careful strategy. When it doesn’t claim attacks, it draws less attention to itself and to its activities. And it creates this element of chaos and fear.

The tribes that live in this area [Editor’s note: who are Sunni], don’t believe the Syrian Army is there to protect them and they don’t like the foreign militias operating in the region [Editor’s note: Both Iranian and Afghan Shi’ite militias are deployed in the area].

So when there are attacks, the locals blame different people. Sometimes, they blame the Iranians or the Syrian regime, other times the IS group. What all of this does is that it creates this element of fear, of chaos and of distrust. It is the same strategy that the IS group employed in northeast Syria in order to drive a wedge between [Sunni] Arab communities and the current administration. And now we see that they are likely using the same strategies in central Syria and the regime areas.

What forces are present in the Syrian desert?

You have the regime and its army, you have the pro-regime Syrian militias, which are heavily deployed here and have been ever since the IS group started to control this area. The most important of these would be the National Defense Forces, also known as the NDF, which is the country-wide entity that was essentially made back in 2012.

These forces have a very tribal nature. They have been used to sort of mobilise the tribes and integrate them into the regime forces.

The other really key militia is Liwa Al-Quds, which is spread out all across central Syria. Again, it plays a similar role in the region to the NDF. Alongside the Syrian forces, you have Russian military forces and the Russian Air Force. Sometimes, the Russian Air Force conducts a lot of air bombings, sometimes targeted runs on suspected IS hideouts. Other times, they’ll offer close air support during battles.

 

The groups currently active in the Syrian desert region. © Observers

There is also the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, which has a large presence in central Syria, because, again, this is the area where you have the oil and gas fields. Some of these are partially leased out to the Russians.

And then you have militias backed by Iran. This includes Syrian militias as well as Afghan and Pakistani foreign fighters and the Lebanese Hezbollah. So all of these groups are here. They’re all spread across the region. They work together at times, they work separately at times, but they’re all spread throughout central Syria.

What are the main tribes targeted by these attacks? What relationship does the Syrian regime have to these tribes? And why is this important to the regime?

So the tribes that have been the most frequent victims of attacks in central Syria this year are the Bussaraya tribe from western Deir Ezzor and the Beni Khaled from central Homs. But any tribe that’s in central Syria has lost people, this year, to attacks. 

The tribal dynamics and political allegiances in this region are always very complex, because one tribe is not one coherent entity. It’s not like a very structured single group with a strong leader that sets their policies.

So when you talk to members of these tribes, they describe their allegiances, essentially, as “I want to live a life of dignity and safety and I want to know who’s going to protect me? Who’s going to allow me to live my life?”

And some of these tribes have a history of fighting the IS group, especially the Bussaraya in Deir Ezzor. Some of their men work in regime forces, as soldiers or militiamen. But again, the economic conditions in Syria mean that if anyone is going to join a militia or the army because it’s a job that pays the best of the jobs you find.

The Bussaraya can also be considered pro-regime because they do live in pro-regime areas. Some of their men work for the regime as soldiers or militia members. But, with the economic conditions in Syria, if someone joins a militia or the army, it is because it is the best-paid work that they can find. 

So the NDF really reflects the tribal fabric of the communities. Local commanders come from prominent and well-respected members of this community. So when you talk to people from the Bussaraya tribe about the regime security forces, they’ll talk about having a lot of trust in the NDF because it is made up of their neighbours, of men they respect and of family members.

 

Image shared by the NDF on its social networks.
Image shared by the NDF on its social networks. © Observers

What role do Iranian militias play in the region and why do the local tribes accuse them of carrying out attacks? 

Iranian militias, and foreign fighters in general, have been in Syria, basically, from the very beginning of the war. They served across the entire country. They were used by the regime to recapture key opposition areas like the city of Aleppo and Damascus. In central Syria, they have been really heavily used to fight the IS group.

Today, the Iranian militias in central Syria control smuggling routes and they’re involved in a variety of illegal financial activities.

But of course, for many Syrians, there’s just inherent distrust towards the Iranian militias because they are foreign militia and don’t speak the language. They’ve also committed a lot of abuses over the years, a lot of war crimes.

There’s also a sectarian aspect. When the [Shi’ite] Iranian militias came in, they tried to recruit Syrian Sunnis and convert them. They also tried to convert civilians in the areas where they were deployed. 

Some of the recent attacks have been on shepherds. Who carries out these attacks and why? 

The IS group targets shepherds year-round. They are attacked for the same reason as the Bedouins gathering truffles. These are people who are travelling into areas where the army doesn’t usually go, where regular people don’t usually go. 

They might end up wandering into areas that the IS group considers as its own. That exposes them to attacks. 

The IS group also steals sheep because they are an important economic resource. Sheep are the largest economic industry in the region and there are massive sheep markets everywhere. Both legal and illegal trading of sheep occurs between Syria, Turkey and Iraq. Everyone’s engaged in it. So sheep have been a really key financing opportunity for the IS group for years now. 

Sometimes, they kill the shepherds. Other times, they’ll just steal sheep. They take the sheep and then sell them in another part of the country where no one knows who those sheep belong to.

And lastly, kidnappings. Shepherds are sometimes kidnapped. This is probably the least common, but the most terrifying if you’re a local in central Syria. Kidnappings often end with the bodies being found and executed somewhere else. I use the word executed because the bodies are found, lined up with bullet wounds to the head.

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Morning Digest: May 1, 2023

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File photo of smoke rising from burning aircraft inside Khartoum Airport during clashes between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and the army in Khartoum, Sudan
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Sudan Army, rival extend truce, despite ongoing clashes

Sudan’s Army and its rival paramilitary said on April 30 they will extend a humanitarian cease-fire a further 72 hours. The decision follows international pressure to allow the safe passage of civilians and aid but the shaky truce has not so far stopped the clashes. In statements, both sides accused the other of violations. The agreement has deescalated the fighting in some areas but violence continues to push civilians to flee. Aid groups have also struggled to get badly needed supplies into the country.

In a first, Raj Bhavans to start celebrating Statehood days

Around 30 Raj Bhavans will hold programmes to mark the Statehood day of Maharashtra and Gujarat on May 1 in what is a new initiative as part of the government’s thrust on celebrating the country’s cultural diversity and different traditions. Official sources said different Raj Bhavans will host people of Maharashtrian and Gujarati origins living in the respective State and also organise different programmes to highlight the cultural riches and cuisines of the two western States. 

Suspected Islamic State leader killed in Syria by Turkish intelligence services: Erdogan

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday that Turkish intelligence forces killed Islamic State leader Abu Hussein al-Qurashi in Syria. Mr. Erdogan said the intelligence organization had pursued Qurashi for a long time. Syrian local and security sources said the raid took place in the northern Syrian town of Jandaris, which is controlled by Turkey-backed rebel groups and was one of the worst-affected in the Feb. 6 earthquake that hit both Turkey and Syria.

Ukraine’s Defence Ministry deletes tweet allegedly depicting Goddess Kali following online outrage

A tweet posted by Ukraine’s Defence Ministry purportedly showing an image of Goddess Kali over a blast fume triggered online outrage following which the post was deleted. The Twitter handle @DefenceU posted the image with the caption “Work of Art”, triggering angry reactions from many Indian Twitter users who accused the Ukrainian Defence Ministry of insensitivity.

Ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha polls, CPI(M) to look at State-specific strategy 

At the end of the three-day meeting of the Central Committee, the Communist Party of India (Marxist)’s highest decision-making body, the party in a statement said the main task before the 2024 general elections is to “isolate and defeat” the BJP. And to achieve this, the party will work with other secular Opposition parties but electoral arrangements must be State-specific, as the political situation varies with each State. 

Nitish Kumar sidesteps query on fighting 2024 Lok Sabha poll

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar on April 30 sidestepped a query about the possibility of contesting the next year’s Lok Sabha poll from his pocket borough Nalanda. Sitting MP Kaushalendra Kumar, who is serving his third consecutive term, had on Saturday said he was willing to give up the seat if his mentor wished to enter the fray. “Just leave it. Why do you worry ( chhodiye na aap log kahe chinta karte hain)”, said the longest-serving CM of the State, as he walked past the posse of reporters with a smirk on his face.

I’m fine with being a snake garland on the necks of people who are like Lord Shiva: Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi again chose to respond to the Congress’ jibe of poisonous snake against him by saying that the snake was a garland on the neck of Lord Shiva and that he would accept being a snake on the necks of the people of the country, whom he considered Lord Shiva.  It may be noted that AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge had described Mr. Modi as a poisonous snake recently, triggering a controversy. 

Congress dubs 100th episode of Modi’s radio programme as maun ki baat

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi completed the 100th episode of Mann Ki Baat on April 30, the Congress took a dig at Mr. Modi for being “ maun” [silent] on key issues such as China, Adani, increasing economic inequalities and the wrestlers’ protest. The official Twitter handle of the party also targeted the Prime Minister for being silent on key issues such as alleged Chinese aggression, unemployment, price rise, among others.

Inadequate space for cheetahs in Madhya Pradesh’s Kuno National Park: former Wildlife Institute of India official

Madhya Pradesh’s Kuno National Park (KNP), which has seen the death of two cheetahs in less than a month, has “inadequate space” for these felines brought from Africa, a former official of the Wildlife Institute of India has claimed. The National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA), which is overseeing the ambitious cheetah reintroduction project in the country, has called a meeting in New Delhi on Monday in the wake of the death of two cheetahs out of the 20 felines translocated to KNP from Namibia and South Africa over the last eight months, an official said.

The Kerala Story an attempt to spread hate propaganda, says Pinarayi Vijayan

Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan on Sunday said the upcoming movie The Kerala Story was a product of the Sangh Parivar’s “factory of lies”. He said legal action would be taken against those involving themselves in antisocial activities. The statement comes at a time when the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), the Opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) and their youth organisations have all opposed the movie in a united voice.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to hand over patrol vessel, landing craft to Maldives

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh will hand over a fast patrol vessel and a landing craft to the Maldives as India’s “gift” during his visit to the island nation from May 1 to 3. During his visit, Mr. Singh will call on Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih and hold talks with Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid and Defence Minister Mariya Didi.

Char Dham pilgrims stopped at Srinagar due to bad weather

Char Dham yatra has been stopped at Srinagar as a precautionary measure due to bad weather at Kedarnath and Badrinath, police said on April 30. On Saturday, Uttarakhand Director General of Police Ashok Kumar issued instructions in view of rain and snowfall during the Char Dham yatra and directed officials to be extra vigilant.

Tim David, Suryakumar Yadav fire Mumbai Indians to six-wicket win over Rajasthan Royals

Talented youngster Yashasvi Jaiswal’s maiden century (124) went in vain as Tim David struck three successive sixes in the final over as Mumbai Indians pulled off a stunning six-wicket win over Rajasthan Royals in their Indian Premier League here on Sunday.

F1 2023 | Sergio Perez wins Azerbaijan GP in Red Bull 1-2

Sergio Pérez took advantage of a fortunately timed safety car to beat his teammate Max Verstappen to the win in the Formula One Azerbaijan Grand Prix on Sunday, adding it to the sprint he won the day before, as Red Bull kept up its winning start to 2023. Verstappen started second behind Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc but swept past him on the long start-finish straight at the end of lap 3, the first lap on which drivers were allowed to use the DRS overtake assist system on the rear wing.

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IS attacks on Syria truffle hunters are deadliest in a year

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The Islamic State group has carried out its deadliest attacks in more than a year, killing dozens of civilians and security officers in the deserts of central Syria, even as people of northern Syria have been digging out of the wreckage from the region’s devastating earthquake.

The bloodshed was a reminder of the persistent threat from IS, whose sleeper cells still terrorize populations nearly four years after the group was defeated in Syria.

The attacks also underscored the extremists’ limitations. IS militants have found refuge in the remote deserts of Syria’s interior and along the Iraqi-Syrian border. From there, they lash out against civilians and security forces in both countries. But they are also hemmed in by opponents on all sides: Syrian government troops as well as Kurdish-led fighters who control eastern Syria and are backed by U.S. forces. American raids with their Kurdish-led allies have repeatedly killed or caught IS leaders and, earlier this month, killed two senior IS figures.

The IS attacks this month were largely against a very vulnerable target: Syrians hunting truffles in the desert.

The truffles are a seasonal delicacy that can be sold for a high price. Since the truffle hunters work in large groups in remote areas, IS militants in previous years have repeatedly preyed on them, emerging from the desert to abduct them, kill some and ransom others for money.

On February 11, IS fighters kidnapped about 75 truffle hunters outside the town of Palmyra. At least 16 were killed, including a woman and security officers, 25 were released and the rest remain missing.

Six days later, on Friday, they attacked a group of truffle hunters outside the desert town of Sukhna, just up the highway from Palmyra, and fought with troops at a security checkpoint close by. At least 61 civilians and seven soldiers were killed. Many of the truffle hunters in the group work for three local businessmen close to the Syrian military and pro-government militias, which may have prompted IS to target them, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, and the Palmyra News Network, an activist collective that covers developments in the desert areas.

Smaller attacks around the area killed 12 other people, including soldiers, pro-government fighters and civilians.

The area is far from the northern regions devastated by the Feb. 6 earthquake that killed more than 46,000 people in Turkey and Syria. Still, IS fighters “took advantage of the earthquake to send a message that the organization is still present,” said Rami Abdurrahman, who heads the Observatory.

Friday’s attack in Sukhna was the group’s deadliest since January 2022, when IS gunmen stormed a prison in the northeastern city of Hassakeh that held some 3,000 militants and juveniles. Ten days of battles between the militants and U.S.-backed fighters left nearly 500 dead.

The prison attack raised fears IS was staging a comeback. But it was followed by a series of blows against the group, which reverted to its drumbeat of smaller-scale shootings and bombings.

It’s too early to say if the new spate of attacks marks a new resurgence, said Aaron Y. Zelin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“It’s the biggest attack in a while. So the question is if it’s just a one-off attack or if they are reactivating capabilities,” said Zelin, who closely follows militant Islamic groups and founded Jihadology.net.

He said IS fighters have been less active every year since 2019 and noted that the recent attacks hit civilians, not tougher security targets.

In 2014, IS overran large swaths of Syria and Iraq and declared the entire territory a “caliphate,” where it imposed a radically brutal rule. The U.S. and its allies in Syria and Iraq, as well as Syria’s Russian-backed government troops, fought against it for years, eventually rolling it back but also leaving tens of thousands dead and cities in ruins. The group was declared defeated in Iraq in 2017, then in Syria two years later.

In 2019, many thought that IS was finished after it lost the last sliver of land it controlled, its founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in a U.S. raid and an international crackdown on social media pages linked to the extremists limited its propaganda and recruitment campaigns.

Another U.S. raid about a year ago killed al-Baghdadi’s successor, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi. His replacement was killed in battle with rebels in southern Syria in October.

The newest IS leader, Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurayshi, may be trying to show his strength with the latest attacks, said Abdullah Suleiman Ali, a Syrian researcher who focuses on jihadi groups. The leaders’ names are pseudonyms and don’t refer to a family relation.

“The new leader has to take measures to prove himself within the organization … (to show) that the group under the new leadership is capable and strong,” Ali said.

American troops and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces eliminated a series of senior IS figures this month, according to the U.S. military. On Feb, 10, they killed Ibrahim Al Qahtani, suspected of planning last year’s prison attack, then eight days later they captured an IS official allegedly involved in planning attacks and manufacturing bombs. Last week, a senior IS commander, Hamza al-Homsi, was killed in a raid that also left four American service-members wounded.

But IS remains a threat, according to UN, U.S. and Kurdish officials.

It is estimated to have 5,000 to 7,000 members and supporters — around half of them fighters — in Iraq and Syria, according to a U.N. report this month. IS uses desert hideouts “for remobilization and training purposes” and has spread cells of 15 to 30 people each to other parts of the country, particularly the southern province of Daraa.

SDF spokesman Siamand Ali said IS persistently plots attacks in Kurdish-run eastern Syria. He pointed to an attempted attack by IS fighters on SDF security headquarters in the city of Raqqa in December. SDF sweeps since then have captured IS operatives and weapons caches, he said. This is a sign the group was close to carrying out large operations, he said.

IS in particular aims to storm SDF-run prisons to free militants, he said. Some 10,000 IS fighters, including about 2,000 foreigners, are held in the more than two dozen Kurdish-run detention facilities.

Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, commander of the U.S. Central Command or CENTCOM, said in a statement this month that IS “continues to represent a threat to not only Iraq and Syria, but to the stability and security of the region.”

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