Top Wall Street analysts favor these five dividend stocks during tumultuous times

A sign bearing the logo for communications and security tech giant Cisco Systems Inc. is seen outside one of its offices in San Jose, California, Aug. 11, 2022.

Paresh Dave | Reuters

The market’s volatility as of late is making dividend-paying stocks seem all the more appealing to investors in search of some stability.

Investors must check the fundamentals of the dividend-paying company and its ability to sustain those payments over the long run before adding the stock to their portfolio.

Bearing that in mind, here are five attractive dividend stocks, according to Wall Street’s top experts on TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance.

Civitas Resources

First on this week’s dividend list is Civitas Resources (CIVI), an oil and gas producer focused on assets in the Denver-Julesburg and Permian Basins. The company paid a dividend of $1.74 per share in late September, which included a quarterly base dividend of 50 cents per share and a variable dividend of $1.24.

Civitas recently announced an agreement with Vencer Energy to acquire oil-producing assets in the Midland Basin of West Texas for $2.1 billion. The acquisition, anticipated to close in January 2024, is expected to boost CIVI’s free cash flow per share by 5% in 2024.

Jefferies analyst Lloyd Byrne has a constructive view on the acquisition, as it enhances the company’s scale in the Midland at a relatively low price.

“We believe CIVI acquired one of the few Permian privates remaining that is accretive to asset quality,” said Byrne.

In line with his optimism on the deal, Byrne raised his price target for CIVI to $102 from $100 and reiterated a buy rating, saying that the stock remains cheap given an estimated free cash flow yield of about 23% in 2024.

Byrne ranks No. 64 among more than 8,500 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 62% of the time, with each delivering an average return of 32.1%. (See Civitas’ Stock Charts on TipRanks)

Bristol Myers Squibb

Next up is biopharmaceutical company Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY). In September, the company announced a quarterly dividend of 57 cents per share, payable on Nov. 1. This dividend marks a year-over-year increase of 5.6%. BMY’s dividend yield stands at 4%.

On Oct. 8, BMY announced an agreement to acquire biotechnology company Mirati Therapeutics for a total consideration of up to $5.8 billion. The acquisition is expected to bolster the company’s oncology portfolio and help mitigate the loss of sales due to patent expirations in the years ahead. Importantly, BMY will gain access to Krazati, a key lung cancer medicine, which was approved in December 2022.

Given the ongoing commercial launch of Krazati, Goldman Sachs analyst Chris Shibutani views the proposed deal as a strategic positive for BMY, “potentially providing a bridge as its new product portfolio continues to seek its footing while its expansive developmental-stage pipeline incubates with much of its value not to be realized in the near-term.”

Krazati generated sales of over $13 million in the second quarter of 2023 and Goldman Sachs currently estimates the drug will deliver sales of $347 million, $1.8 billion, and $2.1 billion in 2025, 2030, and 2035, respectively. Overall, the analyst expects the Mirati acquisition to provide both commercial and pipeline support to Bristol Myers Squibb.

Shibutani reiterated a buy rating on BMY with a price target of $81. He holds the 288th position among more than 8,500 analysts on TipRanks. Moreover, 42% of his ratings have been profitable, with each generating an average return of 18.9%. (See BMY Blogger Opinions & Sentiment on TipRanks)

Chesapeake Energy

Another Goldman Sachs analyst, Umang Choudhary, is bullish on oil and gas exploration and production company Chesapeake Energy (CHK). The company returned about $515 million to shareholders year-to-date through the second quarter via base and variable dividends and share repurchases.

It recently hiked its quarterly base dividend per share by 4.5% to $0.575. Considering only the base dividend, CHK offers a dividend yield of about 2.6%.

Following a meeting with Chesapeake’s management, Choudhary reaffirmed a buy rating on the stock with a price target of $91. The analyst noted that given the uncertainty in the natural gas price outlook, the company is focused on maintaining operational flexibility to adjust its capital expenditure based on gas prices.

The analyst added, “Management reiterated its focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet (including moving to investment grade) and capital returns (including growing fixed dividend + variable dividend based on commodity prices and counter-cyclical share repurchases).”

Choudhary ranks No.478 among more than 8,500 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 77% of the time, with each delivering a return of 39.4%, on average. (See Chesapeake Insider Trading Activity on TipRanks)

EOG Resources

Let’s look at another energy company: EOG Resources (EOG). Back in August, the company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.825 per share, payable on Oct. 31. Based on this quarterly dividend, the annual dividend rate comes to $3.30 per share, bringing the dividend yield to 2.5%.

Under its cash return framework, EOG is committed to return a minimum of 60% of annual free cash flow to shareholders through regular quarterly dividends, special dividends and share repurchases. EOG generated free cash flow of $2.1 billion in the first six months of 2023. Overall, the company’s robust free cash flow supports its attractive shareholder returns.

Ahead of the company’s third-quarter results, due in early November, Mizuho analyst Nitin Kumar reiterated a buy rating on EOG stock and slightly raised the price target to $158 from $157.

The analyst thinks that investors will likely focus on a potential special dividend and a hike in base dividend, as EOG continues to generate strong free cash flow. They might also pay attention to inventory depth and quality due to the underperformance of Eagle Ford and Permian wells. The analyst expects third-quarter 2023 EBITDA of $3.205 billion compared to the consensus estimate of $3.185 billion.

“We estimate a modest (~0.6%) beat on 3Q23 EBITDA from EOG with volumes in-line and pricing slightly ahead of consensus,” said Kumar.

Kumar ranks No.33 among more than 8,500 analysts on TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 75% of the time, with each delivering an average return of 20.4%. (See EOG Financial Statements on TipRanks)

Cisco Systems

Computer networking giant Cisco Systems (CSCO) is the final dividend stock in this week’s list. The company returned $10.6 billion to shareholders through cash dividends and stock repurchases in fiscal 2023 (ended July 29). Fiscal 2023 marked the 12^th consecutive year in which the company increased its dividend. Cisco offers a dividend yield of 2.9%.

Tigress Financial analyst Ivan Feinseth recently reiterated a buy rating on Cisco stock and increased the price target to $76 from $73. (See Cisco Hedge Fund Trading Activity on TipRanks).

The analyst is bullish on the company’s long-term prospects and expects it to continue to benefit from higher spending on information technology due to the need for increased speed, network security and artificial intelligence implementation. He also expects the recently announced acquisition of cybersecurity firm Splunk to be an additional growth catalyst.

“CSCO’s industry-leading position and strong brand equity enable it to benefit from key secular IT trends, including cloud migration, AI development, the high-speed 5G network rollout, WiFi 6, and the increasing connectivity needs of the IoT [internet of things],” said Feinseth.

Overall, the analyst thinks that Cisco’s solid balance sheet and strong cash flows could support its growth initiatives, strategic acquisitions and enhance shareholder returns.

Feinseth holds the 349th position among more than 8,500 analysts on TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 57% of the time, with each rating delivering an average return of 9.6%.

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An LNG import terminal at the Rotterdam port in February 2022.

Federico Gambarini | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine a year ago has shifted global energy supply chains and put the U.S. clearly at the top of the world’s energy-exporting nations.

As Europe struggled with threats to its supply of natural gas imports from Russia, U.S. exporters and others scrambled to divert cargoes of liquified natural gas from Asia to Europe. Russian oil has been sanctioned, and the European Union no longer accepts Moscow’s seaborne cargoes. That has resulted in a surge in U.S. crude and refined product shipments to Europe.

“The U.S. used to supply a military arsenal. Now it supplies an energy arsenal,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital.

Not since the aftermath of World War II has the U.S. been so important as an energy exporter. The Energy Information Administration said a record 11.1 million barrels a day of crude and refined product were exported in the week ended Feb. 24. That is more than the total output of either Saudi Arabia or Russia, according to Citigroup, and compares with 9 million barrels a day a year ago.

However, exports averaged about 10 million barrels a day over the four-week period ended Feb. 24. That compares with 7.6 million barrels a day in the year-ago period.

“It’s amazing to think of all those decades of concern about energy dependence to find the U.S. is the largest exporter of LNG and one of the largest exporters of oil. The U.S. story is part of a larger remapping of world energy,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global. “What we’re seeing now is a continuing redrawing of world energy that began with the shale revolution in the United States. … In 2003, the U.S. expected to be the largest importer of LNG.”

Yergin said the changing role of the U.S. oil and gas industry in the world energy order will be a topic of conversation among the thousands attending the annual CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference in Houston from March 6-10. Among the speakers at the conference are CEOs from Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Baker Hughes and Freeport McMoRan, among others.

“One of the ironies, from an energy perspective, is if you only looked straight back, where we were the day before the invasion … if you look at price, you would say not much has happened,” said Daniel Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners. “The price of global natural gas spiked but came back down. Oil is lower than where it was before the invasion. … The reality is we certainly have set in motion a rejiggering of global supply chains, particularly on the natural gas side.”

According to the Department of Energy, the U.S. has been an annual net total energy exporter since 2018. Up to the early 1950s, the U.S. produced most of the energy it consumed, but in the mid-1950s the nation began to increasingly import greater amounts of crude and petroleum products.

U.S. energy imports totaled about 30% of total U.S. consumption in 2005.

“There’s a global LNG boom that has become much more apparent and visible to the market,” said Pickering. “We’ve shifted around who consumes what kind of crude and products. We’ve meaningfully changed where Russian oil moves to.”

India and China are now the biggest importers of Russia’s crude. “You look at those things, and to me, we very clearly adjusted the way the world is thinking about supply for the next four or five years.”

But a year ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine, it was not clear that the world would have sufficient supply or that oil prices would not spike to sharply higher levels. That is particularly true in Europe, where supplies have been sufficient.

oil

RBC commodities strategists said there were a number of factors at play that helped Europe get by this winter.

“A combination of warm weather, mandated conservation measures, and additional supplies from alternative producers such as the United States, Norway and Qatar, helped stave off such a worst-case scenario for Europe this winter,” the strategists wrote. “Countries that had relied on low cost Russian gas to meet their economic needs, such as Germany, raced to build new LNG import infrastructure to prepare for a future free from Moscow’s molecules.”

But they also point out that Europe is not in the clear, especially if the military conflict continues. “Key gas producers have warned that it could be difficult for Europe to build storage this summer in the absence of Russian gas exports and a colder winter next year could cause considerable economic hardship,” the strategists added.

Qatar has promised to send more gas to Europe, and the U.S. is building out more capacity. “In gas, we’re going to be a very real player. We’re trustworthy. We have rule of law. We have significant resources, and our projects are reasonably quick, compared to a lot of other potential projects around the world,” said Pickering. “My guess is we will go from [capacity of] 12 [billion cubic feet] of exports a day to close to 20, and we will be a big supplier to Europe.”

Pickering said U.S. exports are currently around 10 Bcf a day.

Among the companies he finds attractive in the gas sector are EQT, Cheniere, Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy.

The oil story is different. Pickering said the U.S. industry chose not to be the global swing producer. “We’re not the swing producer because we decided not to be with our capital discipline,” he said.

Energy companies now have earnings visibility that they did not have before, and that could be the case for another five years or so, Pickering said. Oil companies have not been overproducing, as they had in the past, and they did not jump in to crank up production despite calls from the White House in the past year.

The White House has also been critical of the energy industry’s share repurchase programs, which many have.

“They’re generating a lot of cash. They’re being rewarded by shareholders for being disciplined with that cash,” Pickering said. “You did see companies signal their optimism, like with Chevron’s $75 billion share repurchase.”

“The Russia, Ukraine dynamic may have ushered in an era where it’s cool to bash big oil, but my expectation is you can bash all the way to the bank and the political dynamic is very different than the financial and economic dynamic,” he said.

The U.S. now produces about 12.3 million barrels of oil a day, and Pickering does not expect that number to race higher. Producer discipline has helped support their share prices. The S&P energy sector is up 18% over the past 12 months, the best-performing sector and one of just three of 11 sectors that are showing gains. The next best was industrials, up 1.7%.

“Our absolute production levels are as high as they’ve been when you combine oil and natural gas. We were a net importer, and we’ve dramatically reduced that. It’s a massive shift,” said Pickering. “The shale boom benefited the energy sector. It benefited U.S. consumers. It was a terrible stretch for producers. They did their jobs too well. They overproduced. When we went from 5 million barrels a day to 13 million barrels a day, we were taking the most barrels away from OPEC. That was when we were most influential. We were the swing producer.”

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