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Here comes the son, rolling through the streets of Phnom Penh in a black vehicle. He wears a generous smile for a swarm of white-and-blue-clad supporters, as hundreds of cars, motorcycles and tuk-tuks trail behind. “Today is a victory day for us,” Hun Manet, 45, exclaims, two days before Cambodia held its general elections on July 23. General Hun Manet stands below a life-sized poster of his father, Hun Sen, Asia’s longest-serving leader who has ruled the nation with an iron fist for 38 years. “History has shown that only the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) has the ability to bring safety and peace to Cambodia,” Gen. Hun Manet roars. A thunderous chant comes in return: “Bravo Hun Manet, long live Hun Sen!” The sky is overcast, rain is inevitable — just like the Hun family’s triumph.

The dominant CPP swept to unsurprising success in an election devoid of a credible opposition, which the U.S. State Department described as “neither free nor fair”. Mr. Hun Sen, 70, was re-elected Prime Minister for his seventh term. Come August 22, however, the former Khmer Rouge battalion commander will no longer be Cambodia’s leader. “I must sacrifice and relinquish power,” he said, as he announced the transition, the first in four decades, to his son. Gen. Hun Manet won a seat in Phnom Penh and now awaits his confirmation as a member of the National Assembly.

A political mystery thus writes itself in Cambodia. It features a ruthless leader who has overseen civil war, environmental destruction, ‘peace and development’; a restive nation growing weary of violence, repression and corruption; a son groomed to inherit an autocratic regime. Will the son be a worthy successor, launching Cambodia’s first political dynasty? Or will he, against all evidence, reform Cambodia?

Gen. Hun Manet was born in 1977, in the middle of the totalitarian communist regime of Pol Pot (Mr. Hun Sen fought for the Khmer Rouge before defecting to the Vietnamese side). The oldest of Mr. Hun Sen’s six children, Gen. Hun Manet attended high school in Phnom Penh before joining the military in 1995. He later attended the U.S. Military Academy West Point (the first Cambodian to do so); went on to pursue an economics degree from New York University followed by a doctorate in economics from Bristol University. In a 2003 interview, he spoke admiringly of America’s culture which allowed people a unique freedom and opportunity.

Gen. Hun Manet’s political persona shaped up concurrently: he held roles in the counterterrorism force, was promoted to the second-highest rank in Cambodia’s military in 2018, was voted into the CPP’s permanent committee, and now steers the CPP’s central youth wing. The four-star General married the daughter of a prominent Cambodian politician. Ever since Gen. Hun Manet was announced as a prime ministerial candidate in 2021, he has engaged in regional defence diplomacy, meeting officials from India, China, Japan and the U.S., while making trips to neighbours.

Like father, unlike son?

General Hun Manet’s upbringing and path to politics bear little similarity to his father’s. Mr. Hun Sen grew up in poverty, fought for a radical Communist regime, defected to the other side when the tides were turning, ejected the Khmer Rouge from power and brokered a peace accord. When Mr. Hun Sen was 45 (the same age as Gen. Hun Manet today), he led a brutal military coup, killing hundreds, against the coalition government elected after Cambodia’s first democratic elections. In 2011, when street protests in Tunisia overthrew dictator Zain ul Abidin bin Ali, he sharply said: “I’m going to make [the Opposition] dead… and if anyone is strong enough to try to hold a demonstration, I will beat all those dogs and put them in a cage.”

Aggression has shaped his governance, marked by human rights violations, rampant corruption, sanctioned violence against political opponents, effectively dissolving the notion of a multi-party democracy. Sebastian Strangio, in his book Hun Sen’s Cambodia, identified Mr. Hun Sen as a “strong leader of a weak nation”. Today, the CPP holds every seat in the 125-member legislature after the main Opposition was dissolved ahead of the 2018 election.

Gen. Hun Manet, conversely, was born into wealth and status. He smiles and poses for selfies with voters. A colleague who worked with him in Australia in an interview described him as “calm” and “humble” – a persona he is beginning to shed. Now, he combatively speaks of political rivals (“extremist groups” engaging in “dirty tricks”) and reiterates the party line of moving to peace and development. To Gen. Hun Manet’s colleague, it feels like “he’s acting, putting on an act”. He led the military operations during the 2008 Cambodian-Thai border dispute, but reportedly had “no real operational control during the fightings”, Nikkei Asia reported.

Political analysts argue he is yet to be politically tested, but concur that he is a political necessity to maintain stability. For one, “…no one escapes old age, sickness and death”, Sophal Ear, an associate professor of diplomacy, remarked in an interview. Mr. Hun Sen denied reports of being hospitalised in 2017, but concerns about his health grow. Two, Gen. Hun Manet is positioned as the “Prime Minister candidate [of] the future”, a fresh face who can appeal to young voters with his exposure to a democracy outside Cambodia.

A mirage of ‘peace’ shimmers across Cambodia, seemingly healed from the ruinous Pol Pot years and now inching towards ‘development’ as foreign investment gushes from China. But as Mr. Strangio, the author, notes, the illusion belies the complexity of a repressive regime: economic inequities, pandemic fallout, debt crisis and climate change hold the nation up on stilts.

Political dynasty

Three questions have puzzled critics and supporters alike. Does Gen. Hun Manet have the political know-how to win support from members within the ruling party? Will his Western education breathe new life into democracy? And, more pertinently, to what degree will he be allowed to rule? Mr. Hun Sen answered the last one on July 26: “If my son fails to meet expectations… I would reassume my role as Prime Minister” while warning that any disruption in the status quo would be equal to “disrupting peace and undoing the achievements of the older generation”. For now, Mr. Hun Sen will continue to head the CPP and participate as a member of the National Assembly.

“Every time the son of a dictator succeeds the dictator, the angle of the story is always that he’s a potential reformer…” Lee Morgenbesser, a professor who wrote a book on authoritarian elections, told a media outlet. “I’ve never once seen it turn out to be validated.”

The exiled Opposition leader, Sam Rainsy, said in an interview that Mr. Hun Sen is merely “preserving the current system” by seeding a dynasty, and Gen. Hun Manet “lacks personality and charisma and his father’s authority”.

The generational shift is part of a larger change of guard within the CPP: the old ruling elite will step down to make way for a younger generation of officials, most of whom are relatives. Gen. Hun Manet’s two younger siblings will join the ranks as well. The beginning of Cambodia’s political dynasty resembles a game of musical chairs: the ditty has stopped, Gen. Hun Manet finds himself the heir-apparent, in a seat under Mr. Hun Sen’s shadow.

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By Sam Rainsy, Interim leader, Cambodian National Party • Updated: 26/07/2023
– 18:05

If the West were to recognise recent election results enabling a dynastic one-party state, it would mean encouraging dictators worldwide and failing the Cambodian people and the international legal order, Sam Rainsy writes.

On Sunday, the world witnessed yet another wholly fraudulent election in Cambodia.

This Soviet-style pseudo-act of democracy, in a country that has been ruled by one man since 1985, was about paving the way for a dynastic transition between Hun Sen and his son, Hun Manet.

The current leader of the country’s army, and a graduate of West Point, NYU, and Bristol University, many hope that Cambodian democracy may be reborn with Manet coming to power – but, make no mistake, just like with Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, this will not be the case.

Hun Manet will continue the rule of this father, who, for almost four decades, has built a highly centralised power structure, which prioritises self-aggrandisement, and that has little respect for democracy or human rights.

Under Hun Sen’s watch, extrajudicial killings, torture, arbitrary arrests, summary trials, censorship, bans on assembly and association, and a national network of spies and informers have become commonplace.

This is the backdrop to Cambodia’s fledgling democracy and an environment that the international community is seemingly incapable of responding resolutely.

The formal transition between Hun Sen and Hun Manet was announced on Wednesday and is set to happen by the end of the summer, in time for the son to address the UN General Assembly in September.

For the international community to recognise this undemocratic handover of power on the back of a sham election in which the main opposition party was formally banned from fielding candidates means to condone the regime’s systemic human rights abuses and totalitarianism.

Cambodia is no longer a pluralist nation as defined in its constitution — it is merely a one-party state.

Hun Sen’s threats are not just threats

Over a quarter of candidates in this year’s elections are related to members of Hun Sen’s government. Political opposition has been stifled in the country.

I, myself, have spent the past seven years in exile. In my absence, Hun Sen’s administration sentenced me to life in prison, and on 31 May, publicly threatened to kill me with missiles if I return to my country.

I am only one of hundreds that he has threatened in this way — and these are not mere threats.

Candlelight, the only credible opposition party, was banned from the elections in May on a bureaucratic technicality.

This year, its members have reported being attacked in the street by masked men.

Political dissidents of all kinds have been targeted, including the president of the labour union Chea Vichea, who was killed in 2004; environmentalists like the members of the NGO Mother Nature, arrested and imprisoned in 2020; as well as independent political analysts like Kem Ley, who was shot dead in 2016.

Kem Sohka, leader of our party, the banned Cambodia National Rescue Party, was sentenced to 27 years in prison on spurious charges.

There has also been a systematic assault on the country’s free press, with popular newspapers, including Cambodia Daily and The Phnom Penh Post, either closed or subject to hostile takeovers by those allied with Hun Sen.

In the case of the latter, the outlet was sold out of state to a Malaysian investor linked with the prime minister and, in turn, has subsequently shifted its editorial line to support government activity.

The case of Hun Sen vs Facebook

Hun Sen’s campaign to obstruct the freedom of expression for Cambodians extends to social media.

Last month, he deleted his Facebook account following a ruling by Meta’s Oversight Board that he should face a six-month ban from the platform over a video post in which he yet again threatened to have opponents beaten.

The following day, the Cambodian Ministry of Post and Telecommunications announced they would deport a Meta representative immediately, and Cambodia would cease all cooperation with the company.

In a subsequent statement, all members of its Oversight Board were banned from entering the country.

Meanwhile, in the past few weeks, Hun Sen threatened to block Facebook entirely for the election period, thus depriving citizens of access to a forum that is free of government censorship.

This, ultimately, did not happen, but Hun Sen was explicit in his desired aims: to prevent contact between exiled opposition leaders and citizens of the country.

To achieve this, China-style National Internet Gateway was introduced, offering blanket regime control over any online activity.

Voided ballots led to immense fines and arbitrary arrests

Ahead of fraudulent elections, we led a campaign for Cambodians to void their ballot papers, en masse, in protest at Hun Sen’s regime and the absence of an alternative political opposition.

And this was something that Hun Sen feared. To mitigate against the impacts of such a move, he made spoiling a ballot a fineable offence of 20 million riels (€4,500) and charged me and others who advocated this hitherto lawful behaviour with attempting to undermine the election process.

He also ensured that polling booths were staffed only by members of his ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), thus adding a further layer of intimidation.

And this was all after a widespread series of arbitrary arrests, focusing on local Candlelight leaders, including youth and women’s wings, and the forced defection of political prisoners — with some being offered government roles in exchange for their release, or even access to medical care previously denied to them.

The EU and the West should not fail the Cambodian people

The international community must back the democrats of Cambodia. They signed the Paris Accords as an obligation, when the first free and fair elections were held in June 1993, to guarantee that the Cambodian vote was free and peaceful.

They’re reneging on that promise. Hun Sen should be an international pariah, yet he chaired ASEAN for the third time in 2022.

In this capacity, under false hope for the restoration of democracy, he was invited to co-chair a summit with the EU in the US, further lending his regime the legitimacy of the West.

The UK just signed a billion-dollar trade agreement with Cambodia, while the EU’s partial withdrawal of tariff-free benefits for Cambodian goods entering the EU-27, on human rights and labour rights grounds, affects just 20% of exports.

Given the blatant breach of international obligations, the restriction of these special privileges ought to be significantly increased, and new sanctions from other countries should include asset freezes imposed on high-ranking officials involved in human rights violations.

We fear that, despite talk of monitoring Hun Sen’s disregard for human rights, many democratic leaders, particularly in the West, will ultimately recognise these fraudulent elections and give Sen the international legitimacy he needs to complete the dynastic transition to his son.

Doing so would come at a high cost, as it will mean encouraging dictators worldwide and failing the Cambodian people and the international legal order. This cannot happen.

Sam Rainsy is the interim leader of the Cambodian National Party, the main opposition party that was banned from standing in the 2018 Cambodian General Election. He lives in exile in Paris.

At Euronews, we believe all views matter. Contact us at [email protected] to send pitches or submissions and be part of the conversation.

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