Who’s who in incoming Prime Minister Chris Hipkins’ inner circle?

As Chris Hipkins moves in the Beehive’s ninth floor, he will be relying on several lieutenants already known to him.

Here are some of the people already in his inner circle – and some new faces who may be moving up the ranks.

Grant Robertson

Assuming Hipkins doesn’t get sick of hearing how he was the next best pick after the finance minister ruled himself out, Robertson will be the new PM’s right (or should we say left) hand man.

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He’ll remain in control of economic policy and steer through May’s do-or-die Budget, a key milestone in Labour’s election year calendar as it seeks to remind voters it can maintain stability in times of crisis.

Their friendship dates back to Victoria University student politics, and they entered Parliament together (with Jacinda Ardern and Carmel Sepuloni) following the 2008 defeat of Helen Clark’s government.

The power balance has now shifted to Hipkins, who felt no sentimental compulsion to keep Robertson as deputy prime minister.

It was interesting to note during Sunday’s press conference that Hipkins was yet to inform Robertson of his additional new duties (Leader of the House and State Services Minister) suggesting they are not as close as Ardern and Robertson.

Both men are remarkably similar in their outlook and understand each other well. They share a similar, almost contradictory, outlook: blue-collar leftist ideals (both men also love beer, pies and sport) forged in their upbringing, but who came of age in the Wellington political bubble, where realpolitik trumps dogma.

You can expect capital gains tax to remain off the table: both men are too pragmatic to re-open that can of worms. But one bump in the road might be Robertson’s $3.5b income insurance scheme – a hot potato Hipkins may want to toss.

Carmel Sepuloni

Another of the class of ‘08, Sepuloni is perfect deputy material: low-key and trusted.

The social development minister is a solid performer – a good number two can’t afford to be troubled with distractions in their portfolios.

She grew up in Waitara, the daughter of a Tongan-Samoan freezing worker, and Pākehā mother who worked in the Swanndri factory. Her background and Auckland base appeases most factions.

Her colleagues see her as forceful, but someone who offers a sympathetic ear.

Although they were on opposite sides of the 2014 leadership contest (Hipkins backed Robertson, Sepuloni was Team Andrew Little) they joined forces as chief and junior whip.

Their bond is endearing – Sepuloni joked about distracting Hipkins in the house, and he said she has tried (and) failed to give sartorial advice.

Sources say that Hipkins is likely to largely retain Ardern’s kitchen cabinet, to which Sepuloni will now be admitted.

Kelvin Davis, as deputy leader and the senior Māori MP (and also an ‘08 alumnus) will still have a close ear and a key role in building bridges with fellow Northlanders Winston Peters and Shane Jones.

Megan Woods

There’s that saying: if you want something done give it to a busy woman. Not only does Woods currently hold some of the trickiest portfolios (housing, energy, and building and construction) but she is also masterminding the election campaign.

Hipkins could ease her of some of those ministerial duties in order to promote fresh talent in next week’s reshuffle.

In the countdown to October 14, Hipkins will be leaning heavily on Woods and campaign manager Hayden Munro (both from Christchurch and tutored in grassroots campaigning by the late Jim Anderton).

Both are no strangers to upsets in a crunch year.

Munro’s first campaign was the 2010 Christchurch mayoral race when Anderton, then 20 points ahead, made an unfortunately-timed comment about an “earthquake seismic shift”.

He lost to Bob Parker.

The pair joined forces for Labour’s 2020 landslide victory – when health restrictions twice shut down operations.

Although they have lost their best asset in Ardern, the duo’s other secret weapon is Munro’s perennially upbeat nature. None of the MPs will step out of line for fear of disappointing the political operative-turned lobbyist-turned operative, possibly the nicest man in New Zealand politics.

The backroom

Insiders anticipate sagacious chief of staff Raj Nahna to spend a few weeks steering Hipkins’ transition, before stepping down.

Filling his shoes in an election year will be a chore, although there are some able contenders: Alex Tarrant, a former business journalist and savvy adviser to Robertson, or Craig Renney, director of policy at the CTU, who worked for Labour in opposition and served as Robertson’s economic adviser until 2020.

Ardern’s chief spin doctor Andrew Campbell is expected to remain in place. The pair worked well together on Covid-19 communications and Campbell is a master of the role, maintaining good relationships with journalists through a turbulent two terms.

Richard Trow, Hipkins’ senior press secretary, could also find a place in the comms strategy. The affable Welshman has worked for Labour on-and-off since the Clark years. He knows where the bodies are buried and has done a good job of hiding them while remaining popular with the media.

Who’s up and who’s down?

With the exception of Sepuloni, there are likely to be few changes to the inner circle. But this is politics so egos will be both plumped and pricked.

The momentum that swept in behind Justice Minister Kiri Allan can lead her to expect a more prominent role.

That would be a salve to the Māori caucus who will flinch over the expected dumping of Three Waters and the state media merger, shepherded by Nanaia Mahuta and Willie Jackson.

Mahuta is also expected to lose her local government portfolio to rising star Kieran McAnulty, another ‘salt of the earth’ selling point in Labour’s bid to become more relatable.

Don’t hold your breath for a promotion for Michael Wood, however.

Despite sacrificing his leadership ambitions for the sake of party unity, one source said it would be “a surprise” should he be admitted into the kitchen cabinet. He’s got too many problems in his transport and immigration ministries.

That Jan Tinetti is to be promoted was long expected – but in handing her his cherished education portfolio, Hipkins has paid the gambling minister a huge compliment.

Even before Ardern’s resignation, Mana MP Barbara Edmunds was being talked about for a bump up the greasy pole, likely Revenue and/or Pacific Peoples Minister.

Sometimes tipped as a future leader, the former parliamentary adviser to Stuart Nash, is seen as representing a vital link between the top tier and the class of 2020, who risk getting fractious as they stare down the barrel of unemployment.

There will be jostling for the nomination for Ardern’s Mount Albert electorate, because of its historic connotations (held by Clark, David Shearer and Ardern).

List MP Camilla Belich is the favourite, but sources say Helen White, who last stood in Auckland Central, would also like a crack at the safe seat.

Hipkins will have to make some tough calls this week if he wants to present a genuine break from the past – bookies should suspend bets on Damien O’Connor, Phil Twyford, and David Parker returning after the election.

A shadow over his leadership is health, likely to become even more of a liability for Labour over a difficult winter.

Some insiders say Ayesha Verrall doesn’t yet have the experience – and leans too much on official advice rather than her political instincts – and it may be wiser to leave Andrew Little, another pal from the student politics days, in the role.

Nash is a trickier proposition. Labour needs Nash if it has even a fighting chance of retaining Napier – and a good ministerial portfolio might persuade him to stay another term.

That Hipkins made him caretaker of the police portfolio (rather than hand it back to Poto Williams) is a nod and a wink that he understands this.