Tag: Vladimir Putin

Volodymyr Zelenskyy boosts ties with Poland, warns of peril in Bakhmut

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy won new pledges of military and economic cooperation Wednesday on a state visit to staunch ally Poland, and he also said that Kyiv’s troops battling in the eastern city of Bakhmut could pull out if they face a threat of being encircled by Russian forces.

Polish President Andrzej Duda said Warsaw has provided four Soviet-designed MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, with four more in the process of being handed over and another six being prepared.

At a news conference with his Polish counterpart, Zelenskyy described the perils in the grinding siege of Bakhmut, which has been all but destroyed by eight months of fighting that also has cost many lives on both sides.

“For me, the most important issue is our military,” he said. “And certainly, if there is a moment of even hotter events and the danger that we may lose personnel due to the encirclement, there will certainly be corresponding correct decisions of the general on the ground.”

In a recent interview, Zelenskyy underscored the importance of defending Bakhmut, saying its fall could allow Russia to rally international support for a deal that could require Ukraine to make unacceptable compromises.

During his visit to Warsaw – a rare wartime foray out of Ukraine for Zelenskyy – both countries sought to forge a tighter relationship in defiance of Russia’s full-scale war against Kyiv that has reshaped international alliances.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, said Moscow’s relations with Washington are “in deep crisis” as the US has led its allies in supplying aid and weapons to Ukraine. Speaking at a ceremony where he accepted diplomatic credentials from ambassadors of 17 nations, including the US, Putin alleged that Washington’s support for the 2014 protests in Kyiv that ousted a pro-Kremlin president led to Russia’s sending troops into Ukraine.

Zelenskyy said at his news conference with Duda that his government would “extend a hearty welcome” to Polish businesses seeking to help Ukraine’s postwar rebuilding, which the World Bank has estimated could cost €377 billion. He met later with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and signed agreements on developing Ukrainian infrastructure that opens a door for hundreds of Polish companies.

Poland heaped military honours and praise on Zelenskyy as it welcomed him and his wife on a joint visit, during which they thanked the country for its crucial military support and being a haven for Ukrainian refugees. The former Soviet satellite that is now a member of the European Union and NATO feels especially threatened by Russia and has been a leading advocate for aid to Kyiv.

Zelenskyy said the countries signed a new defence package to deliver Polish weaponry. They will also set up joint manufacturing plants for weapons and ammunition, he said.

Morawiecki said Zelenskyy’s visit was “extremely important because we are shaping the picture of Europe for the future. The Kremlin and Putin, Moscow wanted an end to Ukraine, but today we can see that this war initiates the end of an aggressive Russia, of the Russia that we know, and (marks) a start of a completely new Europe. This is the beginning of a completely new Europe.”

Earlier, Zelenskyy and Duda said they wanted to leave behind any World War II-era grievances that linger in Ukraine and Poland.

“There are no taboo topics between us,” Duda said. “There are still open wounds in the memory of many people.”

While Zelenskyy also travelled to the US, Britain, France and Belgium, the trip to Poland stood out because it was announced in advance and undertaken without the secrecy of past foreign trips. It also was the first time Zelenskyy and first lady Olena Zelenska travelled abroad together since the war began in February last year, said Marcin Przydacz, head of Duda’s foreign policy office.

Duda awarded Zelenskyy Poland’s oldest and highest civilian distinction, The Order of the White Eagle.

“We have no doubt that your attitude, together with the nation’s bravery, has saved Ukraine,” the Polish president told Zelenskyy.

At a ceremony in the courtyard of the presidential palace, Duda and the two countries’ first ladies were dressed in formal attire, while Zelenskyy wore the military-style sweatshirt and khaki trousers that have become his uniform since the invasion. His trips to London, Paris and Brussels in February were part of his push for warplanes and for his country’s admission to the EU and NATO, and his visit to Washington in December was intended to shore up US support.

Both presidents addressed a cheering and flag-waving crowd of Poles and Ukrainians gathered in the Royal Castle yard in Warsaw. A larger gathering watched on screens outside the castle.

Duda and Zelenskyy took on a personal tone as they quoted words from each other’s national anthems and stressed their unity.

“Volodymyr, you are a hero of the free world,” Duda said. “We’re sending a clear message to Moscow, you won’t be able to divide us.”

Duda added that Ukraine alone will decide the conditions on which it would enter any peace talks.

“The only conditions that world leaders should be demanding from Russia are the complete pullout of Russian troops from Ukraine’s territory,” he said. “There is no question of any negotiations above the Ukrainians’ heads.”

Zelenskyy said the war has brought the two nations together.

“The same way that we are standing together, Poland, in this war, we will be rejoicing together in peace, arm in arm, in everything, together in the European Union, together in NATO,” Zelenskyy said to cheer.

Zelenskyy travelled through Poland on his previous foreign trips, but until now had not made it his sole destination. The country has been a major cheerleader for Kyiv, a transit hub for weapons and humanitarian aid, and a safe haven for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians fleeing the war.

The visit highlighted Poland’s rising role in a new international security order emerging from the war. Warsaw wants to modernise its military by purchasing tanks and other equipment from US and South Korean producers. The US has also bolstered its military presence in Poland.

Zelenskyy’s visit came at a delicate time, when Polish farmers are increasingly angry over Ukrainian grain that has entered the country and created a glut, causing prices to fall. 

The grain is only meant to be stored temporarily before being sent to markets in North Africa and the Middle East, but farmers say it is taking up space in silos and entering Polish markets, causing local prices to fall. Romanian and Bulgarian farmers have the same complaint.

Zelenskyy and Morawiecki said they had reached a deal to resolve the problem but gave no details.

The issue has been a headache for Morawiecki’s government ahead of fall elections, particularly since his conservative ruling party, Law and Justice, gets much of its support in rural areas. Agriculture Minister Henryk Kowalczyk, the focus of the farmers’ anger, resigned Wednesday.

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Western arms supplies ‘no guarantee’ of a decisive victory for Ukraine

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Issued on:

Ukraine has been preparing to launch a spring counteroffensive to recapture territory seized by Russians and is hoping to repeat the success of its counterattacks last September. Despite the supply of Western arms, including battle tanks, Ukrainian forces will have to change their tactics if they hope to achieve a breakthrough, according to historian and retired army officer Michel Goya.

Ukraine has made no secret of its plans to launch a counteroffensive in the spring and reclaim land occupied by Russian forces since Moscow launched its invasion in February 2022. The Ukrainian army has already successfully carried out similar attacks last September, driving back Russian forces in Kharkiv and Kherson provinces. 

>> Key battles in the Ukraine war: From Kyiv’s stand to the Kharkiv counterattack

Ukraine has received several widely publicised deliveries of military equipment from its Western backers these past days, including armoured vehicles from the US, the UK and Germany. The military hardware, however, “is no guarantee of a significant victory”, says historian and former French Marines colonel Michel Goya. 

He discussed Ukraine’s upcoming counter-offensive on the sidelines of a conference organised this week by the Jean Jaurès Foundation, a Paris-based think tank. 

FRANCE 24: How does Ukraine plan to carry out its counteroffensive this spring? 

Michel Goya: The Ukrainians are obliged to launch major offensives; they cannot afford to chip away at enemy defences like the Russians. Kyiv must secure significant wins as soon as possible, in order to liberate as much territory as it can, while inflicting the heaviest damage possible on Russian forces. 

To accomplish this, the Ukrainian army will have to break through Russian lines and disrupt their set-up. They need victories like those in September in the provinces of Kharkiv and Kherson. Right now, Ukrainian forces need to advance up to Melitopol (in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia province) and Starobilsk (in the eastern Luhansk province) and inflict maximum damage on the enemy. 


 

They will need to concentrate their resources and forces – at least a dozen brigades – on a specific area. When their momentum stalls, they will need to renew their attacks in order to secure three to four victories like those in September. A single counteroffensive will not be enough to reach the strategic goal of liberating all territories [under Russian occupation]. 

F24: Are the weapons supplied by the West enough to help Ukraine reach its aims? 

MG: It’s not all down to the military equipment. The tanks, armoured vehicles and mobile artillery [supplied by the West] will allow Kyiv to build up coherent and solid combat units, which could spearhead the offensive. But current supplies will only allow Ukrainian forces to build up at most three to four brigades, which is not enough to secure a decisive victory. Kyiv will need at least a dozen brigades for its offensive to be effective – as was the case last September. Moreover, Russian lines are now probably stronger than they were back then, which means the Ukrainians will need to double down. 

Aside from the number of troops, what also matters is their organisation; it is very complicated to coordinate different units that require specific know-how and competent leadership. Are Ukrainian forces capable of reaching this level of coordination? That’s the real question. 

F24: What impact could this offensive have on the outcome of the war? 

MG: There are two potential outcomes in the event of a Ukrainian offensive. Either it fails, which would lead to a frozen conflict in which Ukrainian forces are incapable of breaking through Russian defences, or it succeeds, which would destabilise the current balance on the ground. 

Russia cannot remain idle if Ukrainian forces advance in Zaporizhzhia or Luhansk provinces, especially since Kyiv’s forces would come close to sensitive areas such as Crimea and the separatist republics of the Donbas. Ukraine’s counterattack can only lead to a robust response from Russia. 

This would require a new mobilisation of military personnel, such as the one last September, when President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilisation of military reservists.  

The Pandora’s box has been opened; nothing can prevent Moscow from mobilising 300,000 or 600,000 more men, or even one million. Russia has crossed the line and there are no more limits – except practical ones, since it is impossible to transform civilians into competent troops overnight, without adequate training. 

F24: Why are multiple Ukrainian counterattacks necessary? 

MG: We could imagine a scenario in which Ukrainian forces achieve a breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia province that in turn triggers a broader collapse of Russian lines across the country. From that point on, everything would become easier for Ukraine, from a military point of view, and it might even win back the Donbas and Crimea.  

However, this remains an unlikely scenario to me. 

The Ukrainian offensive would necessarily have to stop at some point. It’s impossible to advance continuously along the front line for hundreds of kilometres. They would need provisions, logistics and abundant manpower – enough to replace the soldiers exhausted by combat. When Ukrainian forces advanced in Kharkiv province in September, the Russians later managed to stop them in Luhansk province. 

It is quite likely that the Ukrainian army will see some success, but not strategic victories that would enable it to reclaim all its territories. They will therefore have to multiply their attacks, bearing in mind that the Russians still have several cards up their sleeves, including the threat of a nuclear escalation. There is still a risk of nuclear blackmail – and indeed of such weapons being used, though this would come at a huge political cost for Moscow.  

This article was translated from the original in French. 

 

Read more analysis on the war in Ukraine
Read more analysis on the war in Ukraine © France Médias Monde graphic studio

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Why are so many Slovaks falling for Russian propaganda?

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The Russian embassy’s official account in Slovakia is a conspiracy theorist’s paradise.

Their Facebook page has amassed around 5,000 posts in just one year, featuring a range of content from the bizarre and widely debunked theory that the US is controlling the spread of COVID-19 through international biolabs; to posts promoting tourist destinations in Russia, and even calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offensive names.

The Beacon Project, an initiative by the International Republican Institute that tracks disinformation activities of Chinese and Russian embassies in Europe, has dubbed the account the most virulent diplomatic social media presence in Europe when it comes to undermining the Ukrainian war effort.

What’s even more concerning is that the embassy could be reacting to popular demand, as Slovaks rank among the highest in the EU when it comes to pro-Russian stances.

“A lot of narratives about the decadent West and liberal democracy being a threat to our identity and culture resonate among Slovaks. Slovaks are also prone to believing various conspiracy theories, and with Bulgaria we are leaders in the EU when it comes to ascribing to Russian narratives,” says Katarína Klingová, a senior researcher at the Bratislava-based Globsec think-thank.

In 2020, Globsec conducted a poll on the Slovak public’s reactions to pro-Kremlin narratives and found that 78% of the public in the country believed they were traditional Slavic brothers with Russians, while seeing Russia as a key political and military force on the continent.

“The Russian embassy is very active both online and offline, especially at anniversaries of historical events – end of WWII, Slovak National Uprising, where they actively cooperate with the veterans, and organise commemoration events reminding Slovak of how Russia helped Slovakia in its history,” explains Klingová.

Moscow’s good boys

Independent local news outlet Dennik N secured video footage of pro-Russian journalists being co-opted by employees of the Russian embassy in Bratislava after the invasion of Ukraine last year and paid to promote Kremlin talking points.

In the video, Sergey Solomasov, the deputy military attaché at the embassy, is recorded telling a journalist working for Hlavné správy – a conservative Slovak paper that often runs pro-Russian articles – to target specific people in the country for its disinformation efforts.

The scene is not unlike similar ones featured in Russia-themed spy movies. The two men are seen walking through a seemingly empty forest, with Solomasov casually smoking a cigarette as he gives out his orders and the journalist nodding away.

“I told Moscow that you are a good boy… Moscow decided that you will be hunting two categories of people. First, the people [in Slovakia] who you know love Russia, who want to cooperate, who want money and who have confidential information.”

The second group Solomasov wants him to target are people who are on the fence about supporting Russia, and tells him to take them to sporting events or to restaurants.

Klingová explains that while three Russian diplomats were expelled from the country after the incident, the Hlavné správy journalist is only one piece in a wide network of disinformation sources.

There are estimated to be 253 disinformation-peddling and largely pro-Kremlin outlets in the country, and more than 1800 Facebook pages and open groups sharing pro-Russian propaganda.

“Pro-Kremlin narratives are also voiced by many domestic political leaders and parties, and some public representatives including the Prosecutor General of the Slovak Republic [Maroš Žilinka],” Klingová said highlighting that domestic politicians should also be blamed for this.

Slovakia is slated to hold elections later this year, and some political leaders have already started parroting rhetoric similar to that of Russian politicians such as talking points promoting an anti-LGBT agenda.

Pro-Putin peace marches

What is even more puzzling when it comes public attitudes in Slovakia is the fact that a large part of the government currently in power and the president are fiercely supportive of Ukraine.

“The government is completely in line with the rest of the EU and perhaps even more proactive than other countries, and our President Zuzana Čaputová is one of the staunchest supporters of Ukraine,” said Grigorij Mesežnikov, the president of the Institute of Public Affairs in Bratislava.

In sharp contrast to this, some citizens have been holding what they call “peace marches” or protests calling for an immediate end to the war and arms deliveries, and chant “Putin is our president, Putin is our hero!” at these events.

“I think they have somehow picked out Slovakia as the weakest in the chain of central European countries, where the conditions are the most favourable for spreading their propaganda,” said Mesežnikov.

Why the love for Russia?

Most people would lump Slovakia in with the rest of central Europe, where criticism of Russia and its policy is high – mainly due to the experience of 20th century wars and subsequent communist rule.

“Slovakia has deviated from other Central European countries when it comes to perceptions of Russia and public attitudes when it comes to the invasion of Ukraine,” explains Mesežnikov.

This is not merely a question of public attitudes, he insists, because Slovakia plays an important role in NATO security chain along Ukraine’s borders. Just last Friday, Slovakia delivered 3 Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets to the Ukrainian air force – which is crucial since Ukrainian fighters are trained to fly these planes.

If figures like former PM Robert Fico, who is against arms deliveries and often parrots pro-Russian ideas, get re-elected at the end of the year, this could seriously disrupt NATO’s plans for weapons deliveries.

According to Mesežnikov, “the agents of Russian influence in Slovakia are not marginal politicians or insignificant voices. Some of the most prominent politicians in Slovakia, such as the former speaker of parliament, are the most virulent supporters of Russia and Putin’s actions.”

He also warns that the signs of this undercurrent of blind Russian support has been present in public discourse in the country for centuries.

Going back to perhaps even the 19th century, Slovak leaders “dreamt about Russia as the protector of Slovakia and of all Slavic nations, especially the smaller ones. I think these notions were wrong at the time and continue to be, but they have unfortunately been inherited over many generations,” he explains.

“Unfortunately, all of this is bad for Slovak democracy. This rhetoric and these beliefs pull the country away from universal values and more towards insular values and ethnic politics,” concludes Mesežnikov.



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Ukraine war: Missile tests, German funding, and Jedi air raid warnings

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Moscow: Ukraine has already deployed US long-range GLSDB rockets

The Russian defence ministry said on Tuesday it had shot down a long-range rocket, promised to Ukraine by the US.

“The anti-aircraft defence shot down 18 rockets of the Himars system and a GLSDB guided rocket,” the ministry said in its daily statement, hinting the activity to be the first confirmation that the ammunition had been delivered to Kyiv.

The GLSDBs (for “Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb” in English) are small-diameter, high-precision devices manufactured by the American Boeing and the Swedish Saab. They can fly up to 150 km and thus threaten Russian positions, in particular ammunition warehouses, far behind the front lines.

Ukraine has hammered home the need for such munitions to destroy Russian supply lines and thus overcome its shortage of men and ammunition in preparation for its announced counter-offensive to push back the Russian forces occupying large parts of southern and eastern Ukraine.

The United States finally announced on 3 February that it would provide Ukraine with GLSDBs, but the delivery schedule had not been announced, with some sources saying that several months were needed before they could be deployed on the ground.

The West has been reluctant to provide longer-range systems, fearing they could be used to strike Russian territory and provoke an escalation.

Kyiv, for its part, has repeatedly promised that it would only use them to attack targets in occupied territory.

Russian navy fires missiles in Sea of Japan

Moscow test-fired anti-ship missiles in the Sea of Japan, Russia’s Defense Ministry said Tuesday, with two boats launching a simulated missile attack on a mock enemy warship about 100 kilometres away.

The ministry said the target was successfully hit by two Moskit cruise missiles.

The Moskit, whose NATO reporting name is the SS-N-22 Sunburn, is a supersonic anti-ship cruise missile that has conventional and nuclear warhead capacity. The Soviet-built cruise missile is capable of flying at a speed three times the speed of sound and has a range of up to 250 kilometres.

The ministry said the exercise, which included other warships and naval aircraft, took place in the Peter the Great Gulf in the Sea of Japan but did not give more precise coordinates. The gulf borders the Russian Pacific Fleet headquarters at Fokino and is about 700 kilometres from Japan’s northern Hokkaido island.

The Russian military has conducted regular drills across the country and Russian warships have continued maneuvers as the fighting in Ukraine has entered a second year — exercises that were intended to train the troops and showcase the country’s military capability.

The US Navy’s 7th Fleet did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Japan reacted calmly to the missile exercise, which was conducted near Vladivostok, rather than directly into the waters between the two countries.

Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihiko Isozaki told a news conference later Tuesday that Tokyo will continue to monitor Russia’s military operations, as it has been stepping up activity in the region.

Tokyo does not plan to lodge a protest to Russia over the missile exercise, said Tasuku Matsuki, Japanese Foreign Ministry official in charge of Russia, noting that its location — Peter the Great Bay — is considered Russian coast, though it is facing the water between the two countries.

“On the whole, Japan is concerned about Russia’s increasing military activities around the Japanese coasts and watching them with great interest,” Matsuki said.

He added that Russia has conducted missile drills in that area in the past and issued maritime advisories ahead of time.

Germany to vote on increasing military aid to Ukraine

The Bundestag’s budget committee is due to adopt a significant increase in German military aid to Ukraine on Wednesday.

The parliamentarians are expected to vote on a total of 12 billion euros in aid, both in the form of arms deliveries directly to Kyiv and in the form of re-supplies to the German army, which has offloaded a large part of its stocks to Ukraine over the past year.

If these funds are voted through, German aid will jump from around €3 billion so far to around €15 billion.

The German Finance Ministry will present several proposals to the parliament on Wednesday morning.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Germany has been engaged in an ambitious rearmament policy.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had promised a fund of €100 billion a few days after the Russian attack to boost the German military. But the promised funds have not yet been released and the German army continues to suffer from years of underinvestment.

Berlin, on the other hand, is one of the main contributors to military support in Kyiv. The German government confirmed on Monday the delivery to Ukraine of 18 Leopard 2 type 2A6 tanks, which the Ukrainian army has been insisting on.

Feel the Force: Hamill carries ‘Star Wars’ voice to Ukraine

“Attention. Air raid alert,” the voice says with a Jedi knight’s gravitas. “Proceed to the nearest shelter.”

It’s a surreal moment in an already surreal war: the grave but calming baritone of actor Mark Hamill, Luke Skywalker of “Star Wars,” urging people to take cover whenever Russia unleashes another aerial bombardment on Ukraine.

The intrusion of Hollywood science-fiction fantasy into the grim daily realities of war in Ukraine is a consequence of Hamill’s decision to lend his famous voice to “Air Alert” — a downloadable app linked to Ukraine’s air defense system. 

When air raid sirens start howling, the app also warns Ukrainians that Russian missiles, bombs and deadly exploding drones may be incoming.

“Don’t be careless,” Hamill’s voice advises. “Your overconfidence is your weakness.”

The actor says he’s admired — from afar, in California — how Ukraine has “shown such resilience … under such terrible circumstances.” Its fight against the Russian invasion, now in its second year, reminds him of the “Star Wars” saga, he says — of plucky rebels battling and ultimately defeating a vast, murderous empire. Voicing over the English-language version of the air-raid app and giving it his “Star Wars” touch was his way of helping out.

When the dangers from the skies pass, Hamill announces via the app that “the air alert is over.” He then signs off with an uplifting: “May the Force be with you.”

Hamill is also raising funds to buy reconnaissance drones for Ukrainian forces on the front lines. He autographed “Star Wars”-themed posters that are being raffled off.

“Here I sit in the comfort of my own home when in Ukraine there are power outages and food shortages and people are really suffering,” he said. “It motivates me to do as much as I can.”

Although the app also has a Ukrainian-language setting, voiced by a woman, some Ukrainians prefer to have Hamill breaking the bad news that yet another Russian bombardment might be imminent.

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Putin accuses Ukraine of not wanting Chinese peace plan

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Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday a Chinese peace plan could provide a basis for a settlement of the fighting in Ukraine when the West is ready for it.

Speaking after talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Putin charged that Ukraine’s Western allies so far have shown no interest in that.

He also said British plans to provide Ukraine with ammunition for battle tanks containing depleted uranium signifies the West switching to supplying Kyiv with weapons containing nuclear components. He said that Russia will respond if it happens, but didn’t elaborate.

China and Russia strengthening economic ties

Speaking Tuesday at talks involving top officials from both countries, Putin said he wants to expand bilateral economic ties, noting Russian-Chinese trade rose by 30% last year to $185 billion. It’s expected to top $200 billion this year, he added.

Russia stands “ready to meet the Chinese economy’s growing demand for energy resources” by boosting deliveries of oil and gas, he said.

There are plans to expand industrial cooperation, including aircraft and shipbuilding industries, and other high-tech sectors.

Xi said he aimed to “strengthen coordination and interaction” with Russia, adding that it would help “the prosperity and revival of China and Russia.”

Russia and the West

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov accused NATO of wanting to become the world’s dominant military force and said Moscow is trying to prevent it.

“That is why we are expanding our cooperation with China, including in the security sphere,” he said.

Western officials “have seen some signs” that Putin also wants lethal weapons from China, though there is no evidence Beijing has granted his request, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in Brussels on Tuesday.

“China should not provide lethal aid to Russia,” Stoltenberg said. “That would be to support an illegal war and only prolong the war.”

Japan in Ukraine

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made a surprise visit Tuesday to Kyiv, stealing some of the global attention from Asian rival President Xi Jinping of China, who is in Moscow to show support for Russia against the West.

The two visits, about 800 kilometres (500 miles) apart, highlighted the nearly 13-month-old war’s repercussions for international diplomacy as countries line up behind Moscow or Kyiv. They follow a week in which China and Japan both enjoyed diplomatic successes that have emboldened their foreign policy.

Kishida, who is to chair the Group of Seven summit in May, will meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Ukrainian capital, coinciding with Xi’s talks for a second day with President Vladimir Putin in the Russian capital.

Kishida will “show respect to the courage and patience of the Ukrainian people who are standing up to defend their homeland under President Zelenskyy’s leadership, and show solidarity and unwavering support for Ukraine as head of Japan and chairman of G-7,” during his visit to Ukraine, the Japanese Foreign Ministry said in announcing his trip to Kyiv.

Kyodo News said Kishida visited a church in Bucha, a town outside Kyiv that became a symbol of Russian atrocities against civilians, laid flowers at a church there and paid his respects to the victims.

“I’m outraged by the cruelty. I represent the Japanese citizens to express my condolences to those who lost their lives,” he was quoted as saying.

Kishida was the only G-7 leader who hadn’t visited Ukraine and was under domestic pressure to do so. U.S. President Joe Biden took a similar route to visit Kyiv last month, just before the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

Kishida, Japan’s first postwar leader to enter a war zone, was invited by Zelenskyy in January to visit Kyiv.

Japan’s aid to Ukraine

Due to its pacifist principles, Japan’s support for Ukraine has been limited to equipment such as helmets, bulletproof vests and drones, and humanitarian supplies including generators.

Japan has contributed more than $7 billion to Ukraine, and accepted more than 2,000 displaced Ukrainians and helped them with housing assistance and support for jobs and education, a rare move in a country that is known for its strict immigration policy.

Two different European-Pacific partnerships

U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel tweeted about the “two very different European-Pacific partnerships” that unfolded Tuesday.

“Kishida stands with freedom, and Xi stands with a war criminal,” Emanuel said, referring to last week’s action by the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for Putin, saying it wanted to put him on trial for the abductions of thousands of children from Ukraine.

Tokyo joined the U.S. and European nations in sanctioning Russia over its invasion and providing humanitarian and economic support for Ukraine. In contrast, China has refused to condemn Moscow’s aggression and criticized Western sanctions against Moscow, while accusing NATO and Washington of provoking Putin’s military action.

Japan was quick to react because it fears the possible impact of a war in East Asia, where China’s military has grown increasingly assertive and has escalated tensions around self-ruled Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory.

Moscow and Beijing relations

At a meeting Tuesday with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Xi said he invited Putin to visit China later this year for a top-level meeting of China’s One Belt, One Road regional initiative, which seeks to extend Beijing’s influence through economic cooperation projects.

Moscow and Beijing have both weathered international condemnation of their human rights record. The Chinese government has been widely condemned for alleged atrocities against Uighur Muslims in its far western Xinjiang region. The allegations include genocide, forced sterilization and the mass detention of nearly a million Uighurs. Beijing has denied the allegations.

China looks to Russia as a partner in standing up to what both see as US aggression, domination of global affairs and unfair criticism of their human rights records.

Beijing insists it is a neutral broker in Ukraine peace efforts.

In Beijing, foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said Beijing’s contacts with Russia will help to bring about peace. “President Putin said that Russia appreciates China’s consistent position of upholding fairness, objectivity and balance on major international issues,” he said. “Russia has carefully studied China’s position paper on the political settlement of the Ukrainian issue, and is open to peace talks.”

Putin said Russia’s relations with China were at the “highest level of development in history.”

Asked about Kishida’s trip to Kyiv, he added, “We hope Japan could do more things to de-escalate the situation instead of the opposite.”

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Russia and China are being driven together as the chasm with the West deepens

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Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putin as leaders gather for a family photo during the Belt and Road Forum on Yanqi Lake, outside Beijing, China, May 15, 2017.

Damir Sagolj | Reuters

China and Russia are taking center stage this week as both countries look to deepen ties just as a chasm with the West, on a geopolitical and economic as well as military front, appears to be getting deeper, according to analysts.

A three-day state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow this week, which began Monday, was hailed by China and Russia’s presidents as the result of solid and cooperative relations between the two leaders and their respective nations, and comes after a determined drive over the last decade to strengthen diplomatic, defense and trade ties.

Ahead of the visit, President Vladimir Putin said in an article that “unlike some countries claiming hegemony and bringing discord to the global harmony, Russia and China are literally and figuratively building bridges” while his Chinese counterpart returned the favor, telling AFP he is “confident the visit will be fruitful and give new momentum to the healthy and stable development of Chinese-Russian relations.”

Xi’s visit to Moscow is something of a political coup for Russia given that it comes at a time when Russia has few high-powered friends left on the international stage, and little to show for its invasion of Ukraine.

Russian forces have made little tangible progress despite a year of fighting, and a largely isolated Moscow continues to labor under the weight of international sanctions. To add insult to injury, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin on Friday, alleging that he is responsible for war crimes committed in Ukraine during the war.

Nonetheless, China and Russia have long shared similar geopolitical aims, such as a desire to see what they call a “multi-polar world” and the curbing of NATO’s military might, that unite them. And perhaps the most significant shared viewpoint of all is their mutual, long-standing distrust of the West.

A confluence of recent events — from the war in Ukraine to Western restrictions on semiconductor tech exports to China and, lately, a nuclear submarines deal between the U.S., U.K. and Australia that irked Beijing — has only served to bring the countries even closer together, according to analysts.

“If you look at the trajectory of China-Russia relations within the last decade, bilateral ties between the two countries have really developed tremendously,” Alicja Bachulska, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) told CNBC, saying that the process of developing ties had begun back in the 1990s.

“It’s basically about certain strategic interests, that are very close to both Beijing and Moscow at this point,” she added. “For both Russia and China, the main interest is to weaken the U.S.-led international order, that’s their primary goal, long term and short term.”

The Ukraine factor

For both China and Russia, the war in Ukraine is both a challenge to that U.S.-led world order and a way to undermine it, analysts note.

China has held back from openly supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine but it has also refused to condemn the invasion. Instead, it has echoed Moscow in criticizing the U.S. and NATO for what it sees as “fueling the fire” over Ukraine. It has also sought to carve out a niche for itself as peacemaker, calling on both sides to agree a cease-fire and come to the negotiating table for talks.

Behind the scenes, the West is concerned that Beijing could provide lethal weaponry to Russia to enable it to gain the upper hand in Ukraine, as U.S. intelligence suggested last month. Ukraine’s Western allies have signaled that any move to do so would be a red line and that, should Beijing cross it, there would be “consequences” in the form of sanctions placed on China.

Beijing has vehemently denied it is planning on supplying Russia with any military hardware. China’s foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Monday, reiterating previous comments, that the West was supplying weapons to Ukraine, not China, telling reporters that “the U.S. side should stop fueling the fires and fanning the flames … and play a constructive role for a political solution to the crisis in Ukraine, not the other way around.”

China’s President Xi Jinping waves as he disembarks off his aircraft upon arrival at Moscow’s Vnukovo airport on March 20, 2023.

Anatoliy Zhdanov | Afp | Getty Images

China has denied it is planning to help Moscow militarily but analysts say Beijing is concerned over the war in Ukraine, noting that China views a Russian failure in Ukraine as a threat, given that it carries the risk of a potentially seismic political fallout back in Russia that in turn could harm Beijing.

“The worst case scenario for Beijing now is Russia’s complete failure in this war,” the ECFR’s Bachulska said.

“If they begin to think that Russia might fail — and that in the really worst-case nightmare scenario that there [could be then] a pro-democratic government in Moscow — for China, this would be a very threatening scenario,” she noted, seen as both a “direct threat to Beijing, and the stability of the CCP [Chinese Communist Party].”

This fear, she said, could sway China when it considers whether to offer Putin help in Ukraine. “They will probably be able to provide more support if they realize that the balance of power on the battlefield is against Russia,” Bachulska noted.

It’s highly likely that, should China help Russia in terms of weaponry or military technology, however, it will look to do it in a very covert way, analysts including Bachulska and those at the Institute for the Study of War have noted, such as using Belarus or other countries.

“Xi likely plans to discuss sanctions evasion schemes with Putin and Russian officials to support the sale and provision of Chinese equipment to Russia,” the ISW said in analysis ahead of the Xi-Putin summit, noting that it had previously assessed that during a recent meeting between the presidents of Belarus and China, agreements may have been signed that “facilitate Russian sanctions evasion by channeling Chinese products through Belarus.”

The ISW said Xi and Putin are “likely to discuss sanctions evasion schemes and Chinese interest in mediating a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.”  CNBC contacted China’s Foreign Ministry for a response to the comments and is yet to receive a response.

Tech and trade wars

While possible military aid for China is something the West needs to watch closely, the depth and breadth of China’s loyalty toward Moscow is seen to be finite, with Beijing likely reluctant to risk major sanctions on its own economy just to help Russia.

On the other hand, analysts note that China, like Russia, has a vested interested in seeing the U.S. and wider West weakened, both geopolitically and diplomatically — for instance, if China can step in as a mediator in the conflict in Ukraine — and on an economic level, if the two nations can forge closer trade ties. This would come as the U.S. and Europe challenge China’s economic power, most recently with the introduction of sweeping export control rules aimed at restricting China’s ability to access advanced computing chips.

“Export controls on Chinese high tech — which reflect a policy of targeted containment — brings Xi closer to Putin in worldview and orientation,” Ian Bremmer,  founder and president of the Eurasia Group, told CNBC, adding: “I think that’s likely to be reflected in Xi’s statements when he … visits Putin in Moscow, and that’s going to be a big deal geopolitically,” Bremmer noted.

How Biden’s chip export restrictions hit chip stocks

While Russia might offer China a convenient trading and diplomatic partnership as other routes to Western markets look increasingly vulnerable, analysts note that the relationship between China and Russia is an imbalanced one.

“China doesn’t really need Russia,” Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard, told CNBC. “Russia is a very tiny economy compared to China’s with the exception of some very specific things, such as its hydrocarbon exports and some aspects of its military industries,” he noted.

“What I would say though is that the U.S. pressing on China, especially in these trade wars and now tech wars, is a clear zero-sum project by the U.S. government to prevent China from reaching the frontier of key technologies, notably semiconductors,” he noted.

“It seems to me that as a result of the U.S. government’s zero-sum campaign to pull back China, to stop it getting ahead and keep it behind, is that suddenly the relationship with Russia becomes more valuable to China.”

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How a warrant for Putin puts new spin on Xi’s visit to Russia

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Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow next week highlighted China’s aspirations for a greater role on the world stage.

But they also revealed the perils of global diplomacy: Hours after March 17’s announcement of the trip, an international arrest warrant was issued for Mr. Putin on war crimes charges, taking at least some wind out of the sails of China’s big reveal.

The flurry of developments — which followed China’s brokering of an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume diplomatic relations and its release of what it calls a “peace plan” for Ukraine — came as the Biden administration watches warily Beijing’s moves to assert itself more forcefully in international affairs.

U.S. President Joe Biden said on March 17 he believes the decision by the International Criminal Court in The Hague to charge Mr. Putin was “justified.”

Speaking to reporters as he left the White House for his Delaware home, he said Mr. Putin “clearly committed war crimes.” While the U.S. does not recognise the court, Mr. Biden said it “makes a very strong point” to call out the Russian leader for his actions in ordering the invasion of Ukraine.

Other U.S. officials privately expressed satisfaction that an international body had agreed with Washington’s assessment that Russia has committed war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine.

Asked about the Xi-Putin meeting, Mr. Biden said, “Well, we’ll see when that meeting takes place.”

The Biden administration believes China’s desire to be seen as a broker for peace between Russia and Ukraine may be viewed more critically now that Mr. Putin is officially a war crime suspect, according to two U.S. officials. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the matter publicly, said the administration hopes the warrants will help mobilize heretofore neutral countries to weigh in on the conflict.

A look at the Xi-Putin meeting and how it may be affected by the warrant.

WHAT IS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF XI MEETING WITH PUTIN?

The visit to Russia will be Mr. Xi’s first foreign trip since being elected to an unprecedented third term as China’s President.

It comes as Beijing and Moscow have intensified ties in steps that began shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with a meeting between the two leaders in Beijing during last year’s Winter Olympics at which they declared a “no limits” partnership.

Since then, China has repeatedly sided with Russia in blocking international action against Moscow for the Ukraine conflict and, U.S. officials say, is considering supplying Russia with weapons to support the war.

But it has also tried to cast itself in a more neutral role, offering a peace plan that was essentially ignored.

The meeting in Moscow is likely to see the two sides recommit to their partnership, which both see as critical to countering what they consider undue and undeserved influence exerted by the U.S. and its Western allies.

WHAT IS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ICC ARREST WARRANT ISSUED FOR PUTIN?

In the immediate term, the ICC’s warrant for Putin and one of his aides is unlikely to have a major impact on the meeting or China’s position toward Russia. Neither China nor Russia — nor the United States or Ukraine — has ratified the ICC’s founding treaty.

The U.S., beginning with the Clinton administration, has refused to join the court, fearing that its broad mandate could result in the prosecution of American troops or officials.

That means that none of the four countries formally recognises the court’s jurisdiction or is bound by its orders, although Ukraine has consented to allowing some ICC probes of crimes on its territory and the U.S. has cooperated with ICC investigations.

In addition, it is highly unlikely that Mr. Putin would travel to a country that would be bound by obligations to the ICC.

If he did, it is questionable whether that country would actually arrest him. There is precedent for those previously indicted, notably former Sudanese President Omar Bashir, to have visited ICC members without being detained.

However, the stain of the arrest warrant could well work against China and Russia in the court of public opinion and Putin’s international status may take a hit unless the charges are withdrawn or he is acquitted.

WHAT IS THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON?

U.S. officials have not minced words when it comes to Mr. Xi’s planned visit to Moscow. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby called Beijing’s push for an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine a “ratification of Russian conquest” and warned that Russians could use a cease-fire to regroup their positions “so that they can restart attacks on Ukraine at a time of their choosing.”

“We do not believe that this is a step towards a just, durable peace,” he said. Mr. Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan this week called on Mr. Xi to also speak with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian leader has also expressed interest in talks with Mr. Xi.

WHAT IS THE VIEW FROM KYIV?

Speaking before the ICC warrant was unveiled, Ukrainian analysts cautioned against falling into a potential trap ahead of the Xi-Putin meeting.

“We need to be aware that such peace talks are a trap for Ukraine and its diplomatic corps,” said Yurii Poita, who heads the Asia section at the Kyiv-based New Geopolitics Research Network.

“Under such conditions, these peace talks won’t be directed toward peace,” said Nataliia Butyrska, a Ukrainian analyst on politics related to Eastern Asia.

She said the visit reflects not so much China’s desire for peace but its desire to play a major role in whatever post-conflict settlement may be reached.

“China does not clearly distinguish between who is the aggressor and who is the victim. And when a country begins its peacekeeping activities or at least seeks to help the parties, not distinguishing this will affect objectivity,” Butyrska said. “From my perspective, China seeks to freeze the conflict.”

WHAT IS THE VIEW FROM MOSCOW?

Even if China stops short of providing military assistance to Russia as the U.S. and its allies fear, Moscow sees Mr. Xi’s visit as a powerful signal of Chinese backing that challenges Western efforts to isolate Russia and deal crippling blows to its economy.

Kremlin spokesman Yuri Ushakov noted that Mr. Putin and Xi have “very special friendly and trusting personal ties” and hailed Beijing’s peace plan.

“We highly appreciate the restrained, well-balanced position of the Chinese leadership on this issue,” Mr. Ushakov said.

Observers say that despite China’s posturing as a mediator, its refusal to condemn the Russian action leaves no doubt about where Beijing’s sympathy lies.

“The Chinese peace plan is a fig leaf to push back against some Western criticism on support for Russia,” said Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“The optics that it creates is that China has a peace plan, both parties of war endorsed it and were ready to explore the opportunities and then it was killed by the hostile West.”

WHAT IS THE VIEW FROM BEIJING?

Chinese officials have been boasting about their new-found clout in the international arena as their country’s foreign policy has become increasingly assertive under Mr. Xi.

In announcing the Xi-visit, China’s Foreign Ministry said Beijing’s ties with Moscow are a significant world force.

“As the world enters a new period of turbulence and change, as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council and an important power, the significance and influence of China-Russia relations go far beyond the bilateral scope,” it said.

It called the visit “a journey of friendship, further deepening mutual trust and understanding between China and Russia, and consolidating the political foundation and public opinion foundation of friendship between the two peoples for generations.”

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Russian President Vladimir Putin can’t use Iraq as justification for Ukraine, says Tony Blair

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Former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair is by turns pensive and defiant as he reflects on the upcoming anniversaries of two events that arguably defined the best and worst of his decade in power.

Monday marks 20 years since Mr. Blair joined U.S. president George W. Bush in launching an invasion of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, without a UN mandate and in defiance of some of the biggest demonstrations ever seen in Britain.

For its many critics, the war was exposed as a reckless misadventure when no weapons of mass destruction were found, and hampered the West’s ability to stand up to the rise of autocrats in Russia and China.

But Mr. Blair rejects the notion that Russian President Vladimir Putin profited by defying a weakened West with his own aggression against Ukraine, starting in 2014 and extending to last year’s full invasion.

“If he didn’t use that excuse (Iraq), he’d use another excuse,” Britain’s most successful Labour leader, who is now 69, said in an interview with AFP and fellow European news agencies ANSA, DPA and EFE.

Saddam, Mr. Blair noted, had initiated two regional wars, defied multiple UN resolutions and launched a chemical attack on his own people.

Ukraine in contrast has a democratic government and posed no threat to its neighbours when Mr. Putin invaded.

“At least you could say we were removing a despot and trying to introduce democracy,” Blair said, speaking at the offices of his Tony Blair Institute for Global Change in central London.

“Now you can argue about all the consequences and so on.

“His (Putin’s) intervention in the Middle East (in Syria) was to prop up a despot and refuse a democracy. So we should treat all that propaganda with the lack of respect it deserves.”

Northern Ireland

Fallout from the Iraq war arguably hampered Blair’s own efforts as an international envoy to negotiate peace between Israel and the Palestinians, after he left office in 2007.

Through his institute, Blair maintains offices in the region and says he is “still very passionate” about promoting peace in the Middle East, even if it appears “pretty distant right now”.

But while there can be no settlement in Ukraine until Russia recognises that “aggression is wrong”, he says the Palestinians could draw lessons from the undisputed high point of his tenure: peace in Northern Ireland.

Under the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, pro-Irish militants agreed to lay down their arms and pro-UK unionists agreed to share power, after three decades of sectarian strife had left some 3,500 people dead.

Mr. Blair, then Irish premier Bertie Ahern and an envoy of US president Bill Clinton spent three days and nights negotiating the final stretch before the agreement was signed on April 10, 1998.

The territory is mired in renewed political gridlock today.

But a recent deal between Britain and the European Union to regulate post-Brexit trade in Northern Ireland has cleared the way for US President Joe Biden to visit for the agreement’s 25th anniversary.

Reflecting on the shift in strategy by the pro-Irish militants, from the bullet to the ballot box, Blair said “it’s something I often say to the Palestinians: you should learn from what they did”.

“They shifted strategy and look at the result,” he added, denying he was biased towards Israel but merely recognising the reality of how to negotiate peace.

“There are lots of things contested and uncontested,” he added, dwelling on his tumultuous time in 10 Downing Street from 1997 to 2007.

“I suppose the one uncontested thing is probably the Good Friday Agreement.

“The thing had more or less collapsed when I came to Belfast and we had to rewrite it and agree it… it’s probably been the only really successful peace process of the last period of time, in the last 25 years.”

Tories could pull off shock election win

Tony Blair came to power as leader of Britain’s Labour party in the years after it suffered a paralysing defeat to the Conservatives that few saw coming.

While praising current Labour chief Keir Starmer, Mr. Blair says that in the next general election, a shock win cannot be ruled out for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Tories — even if the party currently trails badly in the polls.

But on one thing regarding UK politics, the 69-year-old elder statesman is sure: Britain will not rejoin the European Union in the coming years.

“Whether and how the UK rejoins the EU will be for a future generation. I think that’s the reality,” Mr. Blair said.

The former prime minister vocally opposed Brexit in Britain’s 2016 referendum, even travelling to Northern Ireland with ex-Tory leader John Major to warn of its likely impact on the delicate peace there.

Following his surprise win over Labour in 1992, Major laid the foundations of peace talks with pro-Irish militants, which Blair went on to build into a landmark agreement in 1998.

Major’s election win accelerated Labour’s conversion from a flirtation with the far-left in the 1980s to electoral respectability, and Blair won a landslide five years later.

Then, the Conservatives were rebuilding after the political demise of Margaret Thatcher. Today, under Sunak, they are trying to rebuild after political and economic tumult under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.

Starmer’s Labour has a commanding lead in opinion polls, averaging 20 points, ahead of the next election likely to take place in 2024.

But Sunak personally polls better than his rival, drawing media comparisons to the 1992 contest between Major and his Labour opponent, Neil Kinnock, who voters decided was not ready to be prime minister.

‘Very sensible guy’

Asked if Sunak could pull off a repeat upset, Blair said: “In politics, you should never talk of certainties, because there aren’t any.”

Sunak, whose presentational style has been compared to Blair, was “repairing the damage that has been done” to the Conservative brand by Johnson and Truss, he said.

But however much Sunak improves the party’s standing, voters will still be taxed higher and receiving less in public services come the next election.

“And I also think that Keir is a very sensible guy. He’s someone who looks like he can lead the country,” Blair added.

“In the immortal words of Sir Rod Stewart, it’s time to give the other lot a go, or whatever he said.”

The British rock crooner, a lifelong Conservative, said in January that “I’ve never seen it so bad… change the bloody government” and let Labour in.

While both Blair and Starmer campaigned to keep Britain in the EU, the current Labour leader has ruled out rejoining the bloc’s single market as a compromise step after Brexit.

“I think right now, the debate in the UK is the degree to which we want to re-establish a strong relationship with Europe, which I think we should and which I believe Labour will also do,” Blair said.

Britain and the EU had much to talk about in energy and climate, science and research, and defence and security after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he said.

“I think there’s a strong case for trying to cooperate on technology,” Blair added.

“Because otherwise, Europe, including the UK, is going to be pinned between two technology giants in the US and China, and possibly a third in India.

“And so I think there’s a massive amount we can do together.”

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Serbia’s far right seizes on Putin’s war to push retaking Kosovo

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BELGRADE — Serbia’s ultra-nationalists are using Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to galvanize their campaign against Kosovo’s independence — and anti-war activists are getting caught in the crossfire.

Politicians on Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s right flank have sniffed out an opportunity to tie Russia’s war on Ukraine to their desire to swallow up Kosovo, even as Vučić engages in EU-brokered negotiations to partially normalize relations with Kosovo, the independence of which neither Belgrade nor Moscow recognize.

A victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine is a stepping stone to Serbia regaining Kosovo, according to Miša Vacić, the leader of the highly nationalistic, pro-Kremlin Serbian Right political party.

“We must be patient and must wait to finish in Ukraine, and after that we will have enough time,” he told POLITICO.

More than 200,000 Russians have arrived in Serbia since the beginning of the invasion. As one of just a handful of European countries offering visa-free entry to Russian passport-holders, it provides safe harbor for those seeking an exit for reasons ranging from economic to ideological.

Vacić, who in September traveled to Russian-occupied Donetsk to observe the so-called referendum to join Russia that was widely slammed by Western governments as a sham, claims Russian liberal activists in Serbia are a threat to realizing his ideal society, if they join forces with their local counterparts. 

“It is a real revolution of liberals,” Vacić said, adding that even if only 10 percent of the new Russian arrivals were committed liberal activists, Serbia would still be flooded with at least 20,000 of his political enemies. “They think they must liberate Serbia from Serbs, from traditional Serbian values.”

Violent threats

Among the Russians who have arrived in Belgrade since Putin launched his full-scale invasion last year is Ilya Zernov. The 19-year-old political activist from Tolyatti in southwestern Russia sought sanctuary in Belgrade last March — his anti-war protests prompted a police search of his student dormitory in Kazan.

“I realized that I would not be able to continue my studies, and would not be able to be in Russia for a long time,” Zernov told POLITICO, adding that the police who searched his dorm threatened him with violence and imprisonment.

Zernov is an active participant in the Russian Democratic Society (RDS), an anti-war organization founded last year in Belgrade with the stated goal of supporting Ukrainian victory. It has since emerged as one of the most visible pro-Ukraine advocacy groups in Serbia, regularly organizing protests in the streets.

But in a country where Putin enjoys significant support amid an increasingly assertive ultra-nationalist movement, anti-war activists are a target.

A Russian Democratic Society (RDS) event on February 24, 2023 | Bennett Murray for POLITICO

Zernov reported to the police last month that Vacić had assaulted him. The attack, which Zernov said occurred after he attempted to paint over anti-Ukrainian graffiti on the side of a Belgrade apartment block, left him with a perforated eardrum. Vacić denies assaulting Zernov.

Threats of violence also overshadowed plans to hold two anti-war rallies on the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

“The police warned us that they had information that some kind of violent provocations were being planned by these extreme-right people,” said RDS co-founder Peter Nikitin, whose group organized one of the protests.

Nikitin also rejected Vacić’s claims that his group, and those like it, are seeking to campaign on social issues in Serbia.

“Our only purpose is to show the world and the Serbian public what is happening, and to mobilize public opinion for Ukraine,” he said, adding that it is Vacić who wants to make Serbia subservient to foreign interests. “[Vacić] is pushing Russian interests and Putin’s interests in Serbia very directly, and he’s the one trying to turn Serbia into Russia.”

Rallying around ‘Z’

As the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approached last month, tensions simmered in Belgrade.

A far-right rally in mid-February ended with participants attempting to break into President Vučić’s office. Damjan Knezevic, the leader of the People’s Patrol far-right network, gave a fiery speech to a crowd of around 1,000 calling for Vučić to be overthrown, amid a heated national debate over the proposal to resolve the Serbia-Kosovo dispute.

Many in attendance waved Russian flags or sported pro-war symbols, including the letter “Z” used by the Russian military to mark its vehicles in Ukraine, and the skull and crosshairs logo of the Wagner Group, a private mercenary force that has been backing Moscow’s military in the war.

Police arrested Knezevic and two other associates the following day on charges of inciting violence. On the day of the rally, another People’s Patrol member was also arrested in Serbia’s second city Novi Sad on weapons charges after being discovered with a rifle, optic sight and ammunition. 

The arrests spurred yet more outrage among People’s Patrol followers, who doubled down on plans to hold a pro-war rally on February 24, adjacent to RDS’ anti-war protest. While authorities refused to issue a permit for the People’s Patrol rally, officials feared riots would ensue.

When the first year anniversary of the invasion arrived, RDS held a scaled-back version of its planned events, per police advice. It proceeded without incident.

A man wearing a patch with a “Z” on it at a rally on February 15, 2023 | Bennett Murray for POLITICO

Natalia Taranushchenko, an organizer for Belgrade-based Ukrainian association Cini Dobro who is originally from Ukraine’s Vinnytsia region, told POLITICO that while Serbia is generally welcoming, “There are still symbols of Russian aggression, letter Z on the streets of Belgrade, and we still hear that Ukrainians are ‘Nazis’ and a lot of other Russian propaganda.”

Still, there’s some hope for the Ukrainians and anti-war Russians seeking safety in Serbia: Putin’s stalled offensive has also deflated the ultra-nationalists here.

“Serbs were very passionate because they were expecting that Putin would overthrow Ukraine in three days, and after that they thought he would say that we need to get back Kosovo for Serbia,” said Čedomir Stojković, a Belgrade-based lawyer who investigates covert Russian influence in his country. 

“But over time, as the war did not happen the way people expected, those expectations started to change, and now because there is cognitive dissonance, there is no passion,” he said.



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Russia approves 60-day extension of Black Sea grain deal

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Russia consented on Monday to prolong an ongoing Black Sea grain deal for 60 days following its second-term expiration date on March 18. The original deal was brokered by the UN and Turkey in July 2022 to ensure safe transportation of grain and other food products to prevent a food crisis amid the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Follow our live blog for all the latest developments. All times are Paris time (GMT+1).

This live page is no longer being updated. For more of our coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

9:15pm: Ukraine’s future lies in the outcome of battles in the east, Zelensky says

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday that Ukraine’s future depended on the outcome of battles in key points in the east of the country.

“It is very tough in the east – very painful. We have to destroy the enemy’s military power. And we shall destroy it,” Zelensky said in his nightly video address.

“Bilohorivka and Marinka, Avdiivka and Bakhmut, Vuhledar and Kamyanka – and other places where the kind of future we are to have is being decided. Where the future of all Ukrainians is being fought for.”


8:01pm: Biden adminstration allows Ukrainians who fled war stay in US longer

The Biden administration is allowing thousands of Ukrainians who fled their homeland when Russia invaded a year ago to stay in the United States longer, the administration said Monday. The decision provides relief to Ukrainians whose one-year authorisation to remain in the US was set to expire soon.

The Homeland Security Department said the extension is for certain Ukrainian nationals and their immediate family members who were let into the US before the Uniting for Ukraine program started.

Ukrainians who came in under the Uniting for Ukraine program generally got two years of humanitarian “parole” in the US whereas those who arrived before them generally got permission to stay only for one year.

Thousands of Ukrainians came to the US last year fleeing the war.

7:15pm: Russia’s 60-day grain deal extension ‘contradicts’ agreement, says Kyiv 

Ukraine’s infrastructure minister said Monday that Russia’s decision to extend the grain deal for 60 days went against the agreement, but did not reject Moscow’s proposal.

“(The grain) agreement involves at least 120 days of extension, therefore Russia’s position to extend the deal only for 60 days contradicts the document signed by Turkey and the UN,” Oleksandr Kubrakov said on Twitter, adding: “We’re waiting for the official position of the UN and Turkey as the guarantors of the initiative.”


 


6:20pm: British warship escorts Russian frigate in waters off UK

Britain’s Royal Navy said on Monday that it was escorting a Russian frigate and tanker in waters close to the UK having shadowed the vessels through the Channel on Sunday morning.

“The Royal Navy routinely responds to escort warships in our territorial waters and the adjacent sea areas to ensure compliance with maritime law and to deter malign activity,” the Royal Navy said in a statement.

“Escorting the Russian task group alongside allied partners demonstrates the commitment of the Royal Navy and the NATO alliance to maintaining maritime security which is crucial to our national interests,” it said.

5:50pm: Ukrainian soldiers complete Spain training on Leopard tanks

Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers on Monday wrapped up a four-week training in Spain on how to operate the Leopard 2A4 battle tank, of which Madrid is set to deliver six mothballed units to Kyiv this spring.

A total of 40 tank crew members and 15 mechanical specialists underwent training on their use at a military base in the northeastern city of Zaragoza, Spain’s armed forces said in a statement.

“It has been intense,” Spanish trainer Captain Contreras – who identified himself only by his rank and surname – told reporters, who were allowed access to the drills for the fist time.

Contreras said the Ukrainians would be returning home “with a very acceptable knowledge” of the Leopards.

5:33pm: Russia approves 60-day extension of Black Sea grain deal

Russia has agreed to renew the Ukraine grain export deal but only for another 60 days, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin announced following talks with the United Nations on Monday.

“The Russian side… does not object to another extension of the ‘Black Sea Initiative’ after its second term expiration on March 18, but only for 60 days,” he said in a statement issued by the Russian mission in Geneva following the negotiations at the UN’s Palais des Nations.

5:20pm: UK warns against deepening China-Russia relationship 

Britain cast China as representing an “epoch-defining challenge” to the world order, in an update to its foreign policy framework published on Monday which declared that the UK’s security hinged on the outcome of the Ukraine war.

In the refresh of Britain’s blueprint for security and international policy, the government warned of China’s deepening partnership with Russia, and Moscow’s growing cooperation with Iran following the invasion of Ukraine.

Only first released two years ago, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Britain’s Integrated Review (IR) had been updated to take account of events, with the hardening of language and positioning towards Beijing and Moscow.

But the decision to still not describe China as a threat was likely to disappoint many in Sunak’s governing Conservative Party, who also believe his vow to spend an extra £5 billion ($6 billion) on defence is insufficient to support Ukraine without leaving Britain vulnerable.

5:15pm: Italy blames Russia’s Wagner for increase in migrants, part of ‘hybrid warfare’

The Italian government on Monday said Russian mercenary group Wagner was behind a surge in migrant boats trying to cross the central Mediterranean as part of Moscow’s strategy to retaliate against countries supporting Ukraine.

“I think it is now safe to say that the exponential increase in the migratory phenomenon departing from African shores is also, to a not insignificant extent, part of a clear strategy of hybrid warfare that the Wagner division is implementing, using its considerable weight in some African countries,” Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said in a statement.

Some 20,000 people have reached Italy so far this year, compared to 6,100 in the same period of 2022, interior ministry figures show, and the migration issue is piling pressure on the rightist government.

3:35pm: China-Russia relationship key to global stability, says Russian defence minister

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Monday that relations between Russia and China were the main factor supporting global stability in the world today, the TASS news agency reported.

Sergei Shoigu said bilateral relations between Moscow and Beijing had reached an unprecedented high.

3:28pm: ICC looks to arrest Russians over alleged abduction of Ukrainian children 

The International Criminal Court (ICC) is expected to seek arrest warrants against Russian individuals in relation to the conflict in Ukraine “in the short term”, a source with knowledge of the matter said on Monday.

The prosecutor of the ICC is expected to ask a pre-trial judge to approve issuing warrants against several Russians for the abduction of children from Ukraine to Russia and the targeting of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, said the source, who commented on condition of anonymity.

3:19pm: Russia tries Kremlin critic Kara-Murza in latest case against opposition voices

Russia on Monday began the closed-door trial of opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza, who faces up to two decades in prison on treason charges for comments critical of Russian authorities.

An AFP journalist reported from a Moscow court that Kara-Murza’s trial began. This is the latest in a string of cases against opposition voices in Russia in a crackdown that has intensified since President Vladimir Putin deployed troops in Ukraine last year.

12:53pm: China’s Xi to speak with Ukraine’s Zelensky, WSJ reports

Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

The newspaper, citing people familiar with the matter, said the call was likely to take place after Xi’s visit to Moscow next week to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

12:27pm: Russian lawmaker introduces bill pushing back conscription age

A senior Russian lawmaker on Monday introduced a bill to parliament to raise the age of conscription to 21-30 years from the current 18-27 years by 2026.

11:29pm: Negotiations under way on Black Sea grain deal extension in Geneva

Negotiations began on Monday between UN officials and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin aimed at discussing an extension to a deal allowing the export of grains from Ukraine, Russia’s diplomatic mission in Geneva said.

The initiative, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last July, is up for renewal on March 18.

UN trade official Rebeca Grynspan and aid chief Martin Griffiths arrived at the UN European headquarters in Geneva on Monday morning, without making a comment.

8:40am: Ukrainian forces in ‘fierce battles’ with Wagner units for Bakhmut’s centre, military says

Fierce fighting was raging for control of the centre of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, the longest-running and bloodiest battle of the war, both sides said on Monday.

“Wagner assault units are advancing from several directions, trying to break through our troops’ defensive positions and move to the centre of the city. In fierce battles, our defenders are inflicting significant losses on the enemy,” the Ukrainian military said in a morning briefing, referring to the Russian mercenary group that has claimed to be leading Moscow’s offensive.

Wagner meanwhile said: “the enemy is battling for every metre, the closer we are to the city centre, the harder the battles”.

7:00am: HRW sounds alarm on children ‘illegally taken’ from orphanages in Ukraine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had “devastating” consequences for children in residential institutions, with thousands transferred to occupied territories or to Russia, Human Rights Watch said Monday.

In a report released Monday, the watchdog also said the war highlighted the urgent need for reform in Ukraine, which had over 105,000 children in institutions before the invasion, the largest number in Europe after Russia.

“This brutal war has starkly shown the need to end the perils faced by children who were institutionalised,” said Bill Van Esveld, associate children’s rights director at the New York-based organisation.

“Returning children who were illegally taken by Russian forces should be an international priority,” he added.

At least several thousand children have been transferred to Russia or occupied territories, the report said.

It added that 100 institutions that had housed over 32,000 children before 2022 are now in territories under Russian occupation.

12:02am: Arms transfers to Europe almost doubled in 2022, says report

Arms imports into Europe almost doubled in 2022, driven by massive shipments to Ukraine, which has become the world’s third-largest destination, researchers said Monday.

With a 93 percent jump from the year before, imports also increased due to accelerating military spending by European states including Poland and Norway, and they are expected to accelerate further, according to the report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). 

© France Médias Monde graphic studio

(FRANCE 24 with AFP, AP & Reuters)



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