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In setback to Turkey’s Erdogan, opposition makes huge gains in local election

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Turkey’s main opposition party retained its control over key cities and made huge gains elsewhere in Sunday’s local elections, in a major upset to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had set his sights on retaking control of those urban areas.

With more than 90% of ballot boxes counted, incumbent Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, of the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, was leading by a wide margin in Turkey’s largest city and economic hub, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency. Mansur Yavas, the mayor of the capital, Ankara, retained his seat with a stunning 25-point difference over his challenger, the results indicated.

In all, the CHP won the municipalities of 36 of Turkey’s 81 provinces, according to Anadolu, making inroads into many strongholds of Erdogan’s party. It gained 37% of the votes nationwide, compared to 36% for the president’s party, marking the CHP’s greatest electoral victory since President Erdogan came to power two decades ago.

Mr. Erdogan acknowledged the electoral setback in a speech delivered from the balcony of the presidential palace, saying his party had suffered “a loss of altitude” across Turkey. The people delivered a “message” that his party will “analyse” by engaging in “courageous” self-criticism, he said.

“Unfortunately, nine months after our victory in the May 28 elections, we could not get the result we wanted in the local election test,” Mr. Erdogan added. “We will correct our mistakes and redress our shortcomings.”

He vowed to press ahead with an economic program introduced last year that aims to combat inflation.

The vote was seen as a barometer of Mr. Erdogan’s popularity as he sought to win back control of key urban areas he lost to the opposition in elections five years ago. The CHP’s victory in Ankara and Istanbul in 2019 had shattered Erdogan’s aura of invincibility.

The main battleground for the 70-year-old Turkish president was Istanbul, a city of 16 million people where he was born and raised and where he began his political career as mayor in 1994.

The result came as a boost for the opposition, which was left divided and demoralized after a defeat to Mr. Erdogan and his ruling Islamic-oriented Justice and Development Party, or AKP, in last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections.

“The voters decided to establish a new political order in Turkey,” CHP leader Ozgur Ozel told a crowd of jubilant supporters. “Today, the voters decided to change the 22-year-old picture in Turkey and open the door to a new political climate in our country.”

A large crowd, meanwhile, gathered outside Ankara City Hall to celebrate Mr. Yavas’ victory. “Ankara is proud of you!” supporters chanted.

Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based Edam think tank, said “the surprising outcome” was due to voters wanting to punish the ruling party over the “depth of an economic malaise.” Skyrocketing inflation has left many Turkish households struggling to afford basic goods.

AKP supporters opted to stay away from the ballot stations or voted for other parties, Mr. Ulgen said.

“Turnout was relatively low compared to past elections,” he said. “There were cross-party shifts in the vote, which did not happen in the nationals elections because of stronger ideological attachments. This time around the economy prevailed over identity.”

Some 61 million people, including more than a million first-time voters, were eligible to cast ballots for all metropolitan municipalities, town and district mayorships as well as neighborhood administrations.

Turnout was around 76%, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency, compared to 87% last year.

Some 594,000 security personnel were on duty across the country to ensure the vote goes smoothly. Nevertheless, one person was killed and 11 others were hurt in the city of Diyarbakir where a dispute over the election of a neighborhood administrator turned violent, the state-run Anadolu Agency reported. At least six people were also injured in fighting that erupted in the nearby province of Sanliurfa.

“According to the data we have obtained, it seems our citizens’ trust in us, their faith in us has paid off,” Mr. Imamoglu said of the early results.

Mr. Imamoglu won 50.6% of the votes in Istanbul, while AKP candidate Murat Kurum, a former urbanization and environment minister, received 40.5%, according to Anadolu. Opinion polls had pointed to a close race between the two.

Mr. Imamoglu — a popular figure touted as a possible future challenger to President Erdogan — ran without the support of some of the parties that helped him to victory in 2019. Both the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party and the nationalist IYI Party fielded their own candidates in the race.

A six-party opposition alliance led by CHP disintegrated after it failed to oust President Erdogan in last year’s election, unable to capitalize on the economic crisis and the government’s initially poor response to last year’s devastating earthquake that killed more than 53,000 people.

Mr. Ulgen said the result has thrust Imamoglu into the role of possible leader of the opposition to challenge Erdogan for the presidency in 2028.

“This outcome has certainly been a watershed for Imamoglu,” he said. “He will emerge as the natural candidate of the opposition for the next round of presidential elections.

Meanwhile, a new religious-conservative party, the New Welfare Party, or YRP, is appealing to voters who have been disillusioned with President Erdogan’s handling of the economy.

In Turkey’s mainly Kurdish-populated southeast, the DEM Party was poised to win many of the municipalities but it’s unclear whether it would be allowed to retain them. In previous years, Erdogan’s government removed elected pro-Kurdish mayors from office for alleged links to Kurdish militants and replaced them with state-appointed trustees.

Analysts said a strong showing for Erdogan’s party would have hardened his resolve to usher in a new constitution — one that would reflect his conservative values and allow him to rule beyond 2028 when his current term ends.

Mr. Erdogan, who has presided over Turkey for more than two decades — as prime minister since 2003 and president since 2014 — has been advocating a new constitution that would put family values at the forefront.

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Turkey elections | Why Europe is watching closely

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Turkey’s elections on May 14 are a key moment not just for the country itself but also for its European neighbours.

With President Tayyip Erdogan facing his toughest electoral test in two decades, European Union and NATO members are watching to see whether change comes to a country that affects them on issues ranging from security to migration and energy. Relations between Erdogan and the EU have become highly strained in recent years, as the 27-member bloc cooled on the idea of Ankara becoming a member and condemned crackdowns on human rights, judicial independence and media freedom.

Also read | Turkish candidate drops out of presidential race

Leading members of NATO, to which Turkey belongs, have expressed alarm at Mr. Erdogan’s close relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and concern that Turkey is being used to circumvent sanctions on Moscow over its war in Ukraine.

Erdogan’s challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has pledged more freedom at home and foreign policies hewing closer to the West.

Whatever the outcome, Turkey’s European neighbours will use the election and its aftermath to assess their relationship with Ankara and the degree to which it can be reset.

Here are some key issues that European countries will be watching, according to officials, diplomats and analysts:

Election conduct

EU officials have been careful not to express a preference for a candidate. But they have made clear they will be looking out for vote-rigging, violence or other election interference.

Pedestrians walk past a giant banner of Turkish President and People’s Alliance’s presidential candidate Recep Tayyip Erdogan, left, and Turkish CHP party leader and Nation Alliance’s presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, background right, at Taksim square in Istanbul on May 10, 2023.
| Photo Credit:
AP

“It is important that the process itself is clean and free,” said Sergey Lagodinsky, a German member of the European Parliament who co-chairs a group of EU and Turkish lawmakers.

Peter Stano, a spokesman for the EU’s diplomatic service, said the bloc expected the vote to be “transparent and inclusive” and in line with democratic standards Turkey has committed to. A worst-case scenario for both Turkey and the EU would be a contested result – perhaps after a second round – leading the incumbent to launch a crackdown on protests, said Dimitar Bechev, the author of a book on Turkey under Erdogan.

Sweden and NATO

“Five more years of Erdogan means five more years of Turkey being with one weak foot in NATO and one strong foot with Russia,” said Marc Pierini, a former EU ambassador to Turkey who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank.

Erdogan has vexed other NATO members by buying a Russian S-400 missile defence system and contributing little to NATO’s reinforcement of its eastern flank.

An early test of whether the election winner wants to mend NATO ties will be whether he stops blocking Swedish membership. Erdogan has demanded Stockholm extradite Kurdish militants but Swedish courts have blocked some expulsions.

Analysts and diplomats expect Kilicdaroglu would end the block on Sweden joining NATO, prompting Hungary – the only other holdout – to follow suit. That could let Sweden join in time for a NATO summit in Lithuania in July.

Some analysts and diplomats say Erdogan might also lift his objections after the elections but others are unconvinced.

Relations with Russia

Although Mr. Erdogan has tried to strike a balance between Moscow and the West, his political relationship with Mr. Putin and Turkey’s economic ties to Russia are a source of EU frustration. That will likely continue if Erdogan wins another term.

If Kilicdaroglu triumphs, European officials would likely be content with a gradual shift away from Moscow, recognising that Turkey is in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis and its economy depends on Russia to a significant extent.

“With Russia, a new government will be treading very carefully,” Mr. Bechev said. However, Kilicdaroglu showed this week he was willing to criticise Russia, publicly accusing Moscow of responsibility for fake material on social media ahead of Sunday’s ballot.

Rule of law, Cyprus

If Kilicdaroglu and his coalition wins, the EU will be keen to see if they keep promises to release Mr. Erdogan critics from jail, in line with European Court of Human Rights rulings, and generally improve rule-of-law standards.

“You’re going to have a wait-and-see attitude from the EU,” said Mr. Pierini.

If there is a crackdown on graft, European companies may be ready to make big investments in Turkey once again, perhaps with backing from the EU and its member governments, he said.

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Efforts to expand an EU-Turkey customs union to include more goods and grant Turks visa-free EU travel could also be revived.

But neither would be easy – not least because of the divided island of Cyprus. Its internationally recognised government, composed of Greek Cypriots, is an EU member, while the breakaway Turkish Cypriot state is recognised only by Ankara.

“This is of course the big stumbling block in our relations,” said European Parliament member Lagodinsky.

However, EU officials see little sign that Kilicdaroglu would change much on Cyprus.

“The big game changer for EU-Turkey relations would be Cyprus. Here the candidates’ agenda, however, does not seem fundamentally different,” said a senior EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Cyprus is one of many factors that make a revival of EU membership negotiations unlikely, officials and analysts say. EU leaders designated Turkey as a candidate to join the bloc in 2004 but the talks ground to a halt years ago.

“There are many other ways to strengthen the relationship, build confidence. There is already a lot of European money that has made its way to Turkey,” said a European diplomat. “I don’t know anyone in Europe who wants to revive EU membership talks.”

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