Tensions rise as West African nations prepare to send troops to restore democracy in Niger

Tensions are escalating between Niger’s new military regime and the West African regional bloc that has ordered the deployment of troops to restore Niger’s flailing democracy.

The ECOWAS bloc said on Thursday it had directed a “standby force” to restore constitutional order in Niger after its Sunday deadline to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum expired.

Hours earlier, two Western officials told The Associated Press that Niger’s junta had told a top U.S. diplomat they would kill Bazoum if neighboring countries attempted any military intervention to restore his rule.

Also Read: ECOWAS left with limited options as Niger’s junta defies mediation efforts

It’s unclear when or where the force will deploy and which countries from the 15-member bloc would contribute to it. Conflict experts say it would likely comprise some 5,000 troops led by Nigeria and could be ready within weeks.

After the ECOWAS meeting, neighboring Ivory Coast’s president, Alassane Ouattara, said his country would take part in the military operation, along with Nigeria and Benin.

“Ivory Coast will provide a battalion and has made all the financial arrangements … We are determined to install Bazoum in his position. Our objective is peace and stability in the sub-region,” Ouattara said on state television.

Niger, an impoverished country of some 25 million people, was seen as one of the last hopes for Western nations to partner with in beating back a jihadi insurgency linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group that’s ravaged the region. France and the United States have more than 2,500 military personnel in Niger and together with other European partners had poured hundreds of millions of dollars into propping up its military.

The junta responsible for spearheading the coup, led by Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, has exploited anti-French sentiment among the population to shore up its support.

Nigeriens in the capital, Niamey, on Friday said ECOWAS isn’t in touch with the reality on the ground and shouldn’t intervene.

“It is our business, not theirs. They don’t even know the reason why the coup happened in Niger,” said Achirou Harouna Albassi, a resident. Bazoum was not abiding by the will of the people, he said.

On Friday the African Union expressed strong support for ECOWAS’ decision and called on the junta to “urgently halt the escalation with the regional organization.” It also called for the immediate release of Bazoum. An African Union meeting to discuss the situation in Niger expected on Saturday was postponed.

Also Read: US to hold Niger military junta accountable for detained leader’s safety, Blinken says

On Thursday night after the summit, France’s foreign ministry said it supported “all conclusions adopted.” U.S Secretary of State Antony Blinken said his country appreciated “the determination of ECOWAS to explore all options for the peaceful resolution of the crisis” and would hold the junta accountable for the safety and security of President Bazoum. However, he did not specify whether the U.S. supported the deployment of troops.

The mutinous soldiers that ousted Bazoum more than two weeks ago have entrenched themselves in power, appear closed to dialogue and have refused to release the president. Representatives of the junta told U.S. Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland of the threat to Bazoum’s life during her visit to the country this week, a Western military official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation.

A U.S. official confirmed that account, also speaking on condition of anonymity, because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

“The threat to kill Bazoum is grim,” said Alexander Thurston, assistant professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati. There have been unwritten rules until now about how overthrown presidents will be treated and violence against Bazoum would evoke some of the worst coups of the past, he said.

Human Rights Watch said Friday that it had spoken to Bazoum, who said that his 20-year-old son was sick with a serious heart condition and has been refused access to a doctor. The president said he hasn’t had electricity for nearly 10 days and isn’t allowed to see family, friends or bring supplies into the house.

It’s unclear if the threat on Bazoum’s life would change ECOWAS’ decision to intervene military. It might give them pause, or push the parties closer to dialogue, but the situation has entered uncharted territory, analysts say.

“An ECOWAS invasion to restore constitutional order into a country of Niger’s size and population would be unprecedented,” said Nate Allen, an associate professor at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. Niger has a fairly large and well-trained army that, if it actively resisted an invasion, could pose significant problems for ECOWAS. This would be a very large and significant undertaking, he said.

While the region oscillates between mediation and preparing for war, Nigeriens are suffering the impact of harsh economic and travel sanctions imposed by ECOWAS.

Also Read: Niger’s military junta digs in with cabinet appointments and rejects talks

Before the coup, more than 4 million Nigeriens were reliant on humanitarian assistance and the situation could become more dire, said Louise Aubin, the United Nations Resident Coordinator in Niger.

“The situation is alarming. … We’ll see an exponential rise and more people needing more humanitarian assistance,” she said, adding that the closure of land and air borders makes it hard to bring aid into the country and it’s unclear how long the current stock will last.

Aid groups are battling restrictions on multiple fronts.

ECOWAS sanctions have banned the movement of goods between member countries, making it hard to bring in materials. The World Food Program has some 30 trucks stuck at the Benin border unable to cross. Humanitarians are also trying to navigate restrictions within the country as the junta has closed the airspace, making it hard to get clearance to fly the humanitarian planes that transport goods and personnel to hard-hit areas.

Flights are cleared on a case-by-case basis and there’s irregular access to fuel, which disrupts aid operations, Aubin said.

The U.N. has asked ECOWAS to make exceptions to the sanctions and is speaking to Niger’s foreign ministry about doing the same within the country.

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Mutinous soldiers in Niger sever French military ties while ”hostage” president pleads for US help

Niger’s military junta says it is severing military agreements with France, its former colonial ruler, firing some of the previous government’s key ambassadors and warning citizens of the West African nation to watch for foreign Armies and spies. A regional delegation’s efforts at negotiation quickly deadlocked.

The junta’s announcement on state television late on Thursday deepens the post-coup isolation for what had been the United States’ and allies’ last major security partner in the Sahel, the vast region south of the Sahara Desert that Islamic extremist groups have turned into the global centre of terrorism.

With two days remaining before a deadline set by the West African regional bloc to release and reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum or face possible force, Mr. Bazoum in a plea published in a Washington Post opinion piece said, “I write this as a hostage” and urged the U.S. and partners to help.

Niger’s mutinous soldiers face a Sunday deadline set by the regional bloc known as ECOWAS, whose envoys arrived on Thursday for talks. But those discussions stalled, with the delegation unable to meet the coup leader, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, or go into the capital, Niamey, according to a person with close knowledge of the talks who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorised to comment.

The junta’s announcement brought further scepticism about any deal. It said it was terminating the military agreements and protocols signed with France and announced the end of functions for Niger’s ambassadors to France, the United States, Togo and neighbouring Nigeria, which is leading ECOWAS efforts on dialogue.

“All aggression or attempt at aggression against the state of Niger will see an immediate response and without warning,” said a spokesman for the coup leaders, Col. Maj. Amadou Abdramane, with the exception of Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea, which have expressed support for the coup.

Mali and Burkina Faso have said such an intervention would be a declaration of war against them.

France’s Foreign Ministry responded that Paris only recognises “the legitimate Nigerien authorities”, dismissing the move by coup leaders. France reiterated its call for “the re-establishment of the democratic institutions of Niger”, the ministry said.

Mr. Bazoum wrote that Niger’s security situation had been improving before the coup, in contrast to neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso that are led by military juntas, but said that’s now at risk because Niger would lose aid from foreign partners and extremist groups would take advantage of the country’s instability.

“In our hour of need, I call on the US government and the entire international community to help us restore our constitutional order,” he wrote.

France has 1,500 military personnel in Niger, which had been envisioned as the base for counterterror operations in the region after anti-French sentiments grew elsewhere.

The U.S. has 1,100 military personnel in Niger, including at a key drone base, and indicates it’s reluctant to leave, especially with the growing influence of the Russian private military group Wagner in the Sahel.

“Interference by non-regional powers is unlikely to change the situation for the better,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in a comment on Bazoum’s plea. “Of course, we are concerned about the tension that is now emerging in the region, and, as before, we stand for the speedy return of this situation to the constitutional track without any damage, without a threat, most importantly, to human lives.” ECOWAS has been unsuccessful in stemming coups and is trying to change course with Niger in a region that has seen five of them in the past three years – two each in Mali and Burkina Faso.

Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu, fulfilling a legal requirement, informed lawmakers on Friday of the ECOWAS intention to intervene militarily in Niger if the coup leaders “remain recalcitrant.” But there are risks that any intervention could get Bazoum killed, said James Barnett, a researcher specialising in West Africa at the Hudson Institute. “You would have to have a very surgical rescue operation to ensure that doesn’t happen,” he said.

Another concern is that the junta might arm civilian militias to resist any intervention. “Already they’ve been using the threat of an intervention to try to bolster their legitimacy and rally the population around the flag, quite literally by organising some major rallies,” Barnett said.

“I fear the junta would gladly use its own people as cannon fodder or human shields, and ECOWAS militaries don’t have a good record when it comes to avoiding collateral damage.” Analysts said they’re not putting much faith in talks.

“I don’t expect mediation efforts to bear fruit in the short term. The junta is digging in … Seems like uncharted territory,” said Alex Thurston, assistant professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati.

Many people in Niamey didn’t appear concerned that ECOWAS will use force, while others wondered why the regional bloc hasn’t had the same resolve to tackle extremist violence.

“If ECOWAS has an army it could mobilise 1,000 soldiers per country … 15,000 soldiers. If ECOWAS was serious, why didn’t it consider mobilising 15,000 soldiers to help Mali, Burkina and Niger, which are undergoing insecurity?” said Annassa Djibrilla, president of the Dynamic Citizen activist group.

Niger’s roughly 25 million people live in one of the poorest countries in the world, and any cuts in foreign aid could be disastrous. Already, citizens are feeling the effects after ECOWAS suspended all commercial and financial transactions between its member states and Niger and froze Nigerien assets held in regional central banks.

The bloc’s sanctions include halting energy transactions with Niger, which gets up to 90% of its power from Nigeria, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. Earlier this week, power transmission from Nigeria to Niger was cut off, an official at one of Nigeria’s main electricity companies said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment.

There have been fears the junta could limit the export of uranium from Niger, which contributes 5 per cent of the global share, according to the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Some residents in Niamey said things can hardly get worse.

Abdou Naif lives in a makeshift community on the side of a road with some 140 other people, unable to pay rent or find work. “Our suffering is already enough,” he said.

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Niger’s military ruler warns against foreign meddling, urges population to defend the country

Niger’s new military ruler lashed out at neighbouring countries and the international community in a nationally televised speech on August 2 night and called on the population to be ready to defend the nation.

In one of the few addresses to the West African country since seizing power from Niger’s democratically-elected president a week ago, General Abdourahmane Tchiani warned against foreign meddling and military intervention against the coup.

OPINION | Coup in Niger: On the ouster of President Mohamed Bazoum

“We therefore call on the people of Niger as a whole and their unity to defeat all those who want to inflict unspeakable suffering on our hard-working populations and destabilise our country,” General Tchiani said.

General Tchiani, who commands Niger’s presidential guard, also promised to create the conditions for a peaceful transition to elections following his ouster of President Mohamed Bazoum.

His speech comes amid rising regional tensions as the West African regional bloc ECOWAS threatens to use military force if Mr. Bazoum is not released from house arrest and reinstated by August 6. The bloc has imposed severe travel and economic sanctions.

The coup has been strongly condemned by western countries, many of which saw Niger as the last reliable partner for the West in efforts to battle jihadis linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group in Africa’s Sahel region. Russia and western countries have been vying for influence in the fight against extremism.

France has 1,500 soldiers in Niger who conduct joint operations with its military, and the United States and other European countries have helped train the nation’s troops.

General Tchiani said Niger is facing difficult times ahead and that the “hostile and radical” attitudes of those who oppose his rule provide no added value. He called the sanctions imposed by ECOWAS illegal, unfair, inhuman and unprecedented.

The fierce rhetoric came as a fourth French military evacuation flight left Niger, after France, Italy and Spain announced evacuations of their citizens and other Europeans in Niamey amid concerns they could become trapped.

Also Read | Niger junta says France plotting to ‘intervene militarily’ to reinstate President Bazoum

Nearly 1,000 people had left on four flights, and a fifth evacuation was underway, France’s ministry of foreign affairs said.

An Italian military aircraft landed in Rome on Wednesday with 99 passengers, including 21 Americans and civilians from other countries, the Italian defence ministry said. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said the flights took place with the permission of Niger’s new government.

The U.S. State Department on Wednesday ordered what it said was the temporary departure of nonessential embassy staff and some family members from Niger as a precaution. It said its embassy would remain open. Some American citizens already left with the help of the Europeans.

A two-day meeting of defence chiefs of the ECOWAS bloc opened on Wednesday in Nigeria’s capital to confer on next steps. Abdel-Fatau Musah, the bloc’s commissioner for political affairs, peace and stability, said the meeting in Abuja would deal with how to “negotiate with the officers in the hostage situation that we find ourselves in the Republic of Niger”.

The sanctions announced by ECOWAS included halting energy transactions with Niger, which gets up to 90% of its power from neighbouring Nigeria, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.

On Tuesday, power transmission from Nigeria to Niger was cut off, an official at one of Nigeria’s main electricity companies said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to comment on the issue. The official did not clarify how much of Niger’s power the cut represented, but any reduction would further squeeze citizens in the impoverished country of more than 2.5 crore people.

U.S. officials have stayed engaged in trying to roll back the armed takeover. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who praised Niger as a “model of democracy” when he visited there in March, spoke again on Wednesday with President Mohamed Bazoum, the State Department said in a statement. Mr. Blinken called the safety of Mr. Bazoum and his family “paramount”, and said the U.S. was committed to the restoration of a democratically-elected government in Niger.

A U.S. pullout would risk Washington’s longstanding counter-terror investments in the West African country, including a major air base in Agadez that is key to efforts against armed extremists across the Sahara and Sahel. The United States has roughly 1,000 military personnel in Niger and helps train some Nigerien forces.

Leaving Niger would also risk yielding the country to the influence of Russia and its Wagner mercenary group, which already has a significant presence in Mali, Central African Republic and Sudan.

Before sunrise on Wednesday, hundreds of people lined up outside the terminal at Niamey’s airport, hoping to leave. Some slept on the floor, while others watched television or talked on the phone.

A person who did not want to be named because of fears for personal safety, said they tried to shield their children from what was happening, telling them “just that they are going home”. The person said they feared reprisal attacks against civilians if Niger’s regional neighbours follow through on threats to intervene militarily.

At a virtual United Nations meeting on Tuesday night, the U.N. special envoy for West Africa and the Sahel said non-military efforts were underway to restore democracy in Niger.

“One week can be more than enough if everybody talks in good faith, if everybody wants to avoid bloodshed,” said the envoy, Leonardo Santos Simao. But, he added, “different member states are preparing themselves to use force if necessary”.

Others in the diplomatic community said military intervention was a real option.

ECOWAS is resolved to use military force because economic and travel sanctions have failed to roll back other coups, said a western diplomat in Niamey, who did not want to be identified for security reasons.

The M62 Movement, an activist group that has organised pro-Russia and anti-French protests, called for residents in Niamey to mobilise and block the airport until foreign military personnel leave the country.

“Any evacuation of Europeans [should be] conditional on the immediate departure of foreign military forces,” Mahaman Sanoussi, the national coordinator for the group, said in a statement.

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Niger’s president vows democracy will prevail after mutinous soldiers detain him and declare a coup

Niger’s president defiantly declared Thursday that democracy would prevail, a day after mutinous soldiers detained him and announced they had seized power in a coup because of the West African country’s deteriorating security situation.

While many people in the capital of Niamey went about their usual business, it remained unclear who was in control of the country and which side the majority might support. A statement tweeted by the army command’s account declared that it would back the coup to avoid a “murderous confrontation” that could lead to a “bloodbath.” It was not possible to confirm that the statement was genuine.

Meanwhile, President Mohamed Bazoum — who was elected in 2021 in Niger’s first peaceful, democratic transfer of power since its independence from France in 1960 and is a key ally of the West — appeared to have the backing of several political parties.

“The hard-won achievements will be safeguarded. All Nigeriens who love democracy and freedom will see to it,” Bazoum tweeted early Thursday.

Foreign Minister Hassoumi Massoudou issued a similar call on news network France 24, asking “all Nigerien democratic patriots to stand up as one to say no to this factious action.”

He demanded the president’s unconditional release and said talks were ongoing.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who spoke to Bazoum by phone on Wednesday, said in a statement that he was “extremely worried” about the situation in Niger and warned of the “terrible effects on development” and civilians due to “successive unconstitutional changes of government in the Sahel region.”

The Economic Community of West African States sent Benin President Patrice Talon to lead mediation efforts.

Bazoum is a key ally in the West’s efforts to battle jihadists linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group in Africa’s Sahel region. Extremists in Niger have carried out attacks on civilians and military personnel, but the overall security situation is not as dire as in neighboring nations.

Russia and the West have been vying for influence in the fight against extremism in the region.

Bazoum was seen by many as the West’s last hope for partnership in the Sahel after Mali turned away from former colonial power France and sought support from the Russian mercenary group Wagner. Wagner appears to be making inroads in Burkina Faso as well.

Western countries have poured aid into Niger, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited in March, seeking to strengthen ties. American, French and Italian troops train the country’s soldiers, while France also conducts joint operations.

But the threat to Bazoum has raised concerns that Niger may also turn away from the West.

On Thursday, several hundred people gathered in the capital and chanted support for Wagner while waving Russian flags. Later, they began throwing rocks at a passing politician’s car.

“If Mohamed Bazoum resigns from the presidency, Niger will probably move to the top of the list of countries where the Wagner Group will seek to expand,” said Flavien Baumgartner, an Africa analyst at Dragonfly, a security and political risk consultancy.

Wagner already had its sights set on Niger, in part because it’s a large producer of uranium. But Bazoum posed an impediment because of his pro-French and pro-Western stance, said Baumgartner.

Wagner’s head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, weighed in on Thursday, describing the developments as part of Niger’s fight against the “colonizers.”

“It effectively means winning independence. The rest will depend on the people of Niger, on how efficient they could govern,” Prigozhin, who led a brief mutiny against the Kremlin last month, said in a statement.

Underscoring the importance of Niger to the West, Blinken said Thursday that he had spoken with the president, saying that he “made clear that we strongly support him as the democratically elected president of the country.”

Blinken, who was in New Zealand, repeated the U.S. condemnation of the mutiny and said his team was in close contact with officials in France and Africa.

Members of the presidential guard surrounded Bazoum’s house and detained him on Wednesday morning.

The mutinous soldiers, who call themselves the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Country, took to state television and announced they had seized control because of deteriorating security and poor economic and social governance in the nation of 25 million people. They said they had dissolved the constitution, suspended all institutions and closed all the borders.

The coup was reportedly sparked because Bazoum was allegedly planning to fire the head of the presidential guard, Gen. Omar Tchiani, Niger analysts say. Military experts say some of the people who appeared on state television were high-ranking officers, including Gen. Moussa Salaou Barmou, the head of Niger’s special forces who has a strong relationship with the United States.

According to someone close to the president who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the situation, the president has not and will not resign and is safe in his residence.

In a statement Wednesday, several political parties expressed their support for him, calling the coup “suicidal and anti-republican madness.”

The “country, faced with insecurity, terrorism and the challenges of underdevelopment, cannot afford to be distracted,” they said. Protesters also came out in support of Bazoum that day.

The international community strongly condemned the attempted takeover in Niger, where there have been multiple coups since independence in 1960.

French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna tweeted that France is concerned about the events in Niger and following the situation closely. France “firmly condemns any attempt to take power by force,” the minister said.

U.N. Human Rights chief Volker Türk called for Bazoum’s release and said “all efforts must be undertaken to restore constitutional order and the rule of law.”

Russia also called for the president’s release. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Thursday in televised remarks that “it’s necessary to restore the constitutional order in Niger.” “We believe that the coup is unconstitutional, and we always take a principled and clear position on that,” he said.

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