Tag: Nicola Sturgeon

The European leaders who continue to make a splash post-premiership

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Following Scottish former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s announcement she’ll be writing a book about her time in office and Sanna Marin’s recent career news, Euronews rounds up some of the most influential European leaders’ lives since they’ve left the top job.

Many former European prime ministers and presidents seem to disappear without a trace after they resign, lose an election or are forced out of office.

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Who can honestly say for certain what France’s François Hollande or Dutch ex-PM Jan Peter Balkenende are doing these days?

For others who leave that position of utmost power, though, their tenure as leader is just the beginning of an exciting – or controversial – life or career.

In the last week, it’s been announced that both Scotland’s former premier Nicola Sturgeon and her Finnish counterpart Sanna Marin have taken on new projects ensuring that they’ll likely be in the spotlight for years to come.

To mark that news, Euronews takes a – non-exhaustive – look at Presidents and Prime Ministers who’ve managed to make a significant impact long after their time in that particular role has come to an end.

Nicola Sturgeon – Scotland

“In my head and my heart, I know that time is now.” Those were the words used by former Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon when she stepped down from the top job earlier this year.

Having spent nearly 9 years in the role, one in which she fought tirelessly for Scottish independence but never managed it, she’s been sitting as a backbencher since March.

In June she was arrested on suspicion of fraud – and bailed soon after.

The second half of 2023 has been far kinder to her, so far.

Last month, the former SNP leader announced she was writing a “deeply personal and revealing” memoir about her life and career.

This week, Sturgeon has revealed she’s launched an “artistic creation” company after signing a lucrative publishing deal for that autobiography.

The company, Nicola Sturgeon Ltd, will be used to handle her outside earnings while she continues her work as a backbench MSP.

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Her agent Andrew Gordon has previously said that there had been a “hotly contested” nine-way auction for the book. The winning publisher hasn’t revealed how much the deal was worth but it’s thought to be upwards of €175,000.

As was the case throughout her premiership, Sturgeon has already been criticised for focusing too much on her upcoming book and not enough on her constituents in one of the most deprived parts of Glasgow.

She will perhaps not get quite as much stick as her predecessor Alex Salmond, who set up his own company back in 2015.

Willie Rennie, a Lib Dem MSP, warned Sturgeon not to follow in Salmond’s controversial footsteps, saying, “Let’s just hope that she handles this artistic company with a good bit more dignity than Alex Salmond, who set up a similar company amid a late-career crisis, to process the money from his job as a chat show host on Kremlin-funded TV”.

Up until last year, the disgraced former First Minister presented an eponymous programme, The Alex Salmond Show, on RT UK until it folded after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

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Sanna Marin – Finland

Last week, Finland’s former Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced she would be leaving parliament to join another former Prime Minister – Tony Blair’s – foundation.

After taking office in 2019 at the age of 34, making her the world’s youngest Prime Minister, Marin was narrowly defeated in April’s elections. She stepped down from the leadership of her Social Democrats party earlier this month.

Within the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, a London-based policy think tank headed up by the former British Prime Minister, she has been appointed as strategic advisor.

Marin led the country through COVID-19 lockdowns and the ensuing economic turmoil and, more recently, has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine after Russia’s invasion, successfully leading Finland to end its military non-alignment in favour of NATO membership.

She has previously spoken of the “great honour” of having led Finland’s government for three and a half years and has refused to rule out a future return to Finnish politics.

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Speaking about her new engagement, Marin told press: “I feel that this assignment [with the Institute] is such that it will benefit the whole of Finland as well”.

Nicolas Sarkozy – France

The only President on our list, Nicolas Sarkozy, is arguably one of the most controversial of all.

He left office as the premier of France in 2012, but has been dogged with controversy ever since.

Late last month it was revealed that Sarkozy is to be tried in 2025 over allegations he took money from late Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi to fund one of his election campaigns.

The trial is set to hear from Sarkozy himself as well as 12 other co-defendants. They’re accused of conspiring to take cash from the Libyan leader to illegally fund Sarkozy’s victorious 2007 bid for the presidency of France.

The 68-year-old denies the charges.

Since leaving office, Sarkozy has been convicted twice for corruption and influence-peddling in separate cases involving attempts to influence a judge and campaign financing. He has since appealed against both judgements.

The former French leader allegedly enjoyed cordial ties with the late Muammar Gaddafi. The Libyan investigation was sparked by revelations from the investigative website Mediapart which published a document purporting to show that Gaddafi agreed to give Sarkozy up to €50 million.

Sarkozy also faces a separate probe into apparent potential influence-peddling after he allegedly received a payment from Russian insurance firm Reso-Garantia of €3m while working as a consultant in 2019

Outside of his legal wows, Sarkozy has been making headlines in France following the publishing of a second volume of his memoirs.

He’s drawn widespread criticism after suggesting that areas of Ukraine occupied by Russia after the Kremlin’s invasion last year might need to be recognised as Russian.

On Crimea, he claimed the annexed region would remain Russian and that “any return to the way things were before is an illusion”.

Sarkozy and Vladimir Putin have famously enjoyed friendly relations since the French leader was in power.

Jean-Claude Juncker – Luxembourg

Luxembourgish politician Jean-Claude Juncker is a recognisable figure the world over – and for good reason.

The 68-year-old served as the 21st Prime Minister of Luxembourg from 1995 to 2013 – making him the longest-serving head of any national government in the EU as well one of the longest-serving democratically elected leaders in the world.

From 2005, he also became the first permanent President of the Eurogroup, too – a role he held until 2013.

His tenure encompassed the height of the European financial and sovereign debt crisis but it wasn’t enough to put him off the heady world of high politics.

After leaving office in 2013, he was announced as the European People’s Party (EPP) had Juncker as its lead candidate, or Spitzenkandidat, for the presidency of the Commission in elections the following year.

He was elected by the European Parliament on 15 July 2014, netting 422 votes out of the 729 cast.

Taking office on 1 November 2014, he served until 30 November 2019, when he was succeeded by Ursula von der Leyen.

Since stepping down from front-line politics, Juncker has all but disappeared from the public eye. He’s long been famous – or should that be infamous – for his great love of playing Pinball. We can only assume he’s enjoying that pastime since his retirement.

Gordon Brown – United Kingdom

The former British Prime Minister was not a particularly popular premier. As chancellor under his predecessor, Tony Blair, though, Brown achieved high approval ratings and was hailed as the most successful chancellor in terms of providing economic stability in the country.

Following just 3 years in office, he was the last Labour premier before the current 13-year run of Conservative leaders.

Since leaving 10 Downing Street, he’s been praised for his continuing contribution to politics and those in need since he quit the Commons in 2015.

After stepping down as PM in 2010, Brown did the thing that so many former Prime Ministers refuse to do – and returned to the backbenches.

He continued to serve as the MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath until he gave up his seat in 2015.

In the ensuing 8 years, he has made occasional political interventions as well as publishing several political books.

In 2014, Brown played a prominent role in the campaign to maintain the union between Scotland and the United Kingdom during that year’s Scottish independence referendum. Last year, he wrote a report on devolution for Labour leader – and presumed-Prime-Minister-in-Waiting – Sir Keir Starmer.

Brown has also taken a wider approach to his role as a committed public servant.

He has served as the United Nations Special Envoy for Global Education and as Ambassador for Global Health Financing for the World Health Organisation as well as taking on the unpaid position of chair of the International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity.

In 2015, Brown took on his first large-scale role in the private sector, becoming an advisor to investment management firm PIMCO.

He famously donates any money earned from that position to his and his wife’s foundation, the Gordon and Sarah Brown Foundation, which supports children’s needs worldwide. He has also been vocal during the UK’s current cost of living crisis, taking the sitting government to task over their apparent lack of action with regards to people facing hardship.

Silvio Berlusconi – Italy

Despite his death in June, late Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi remains as easily one of the most recognisable figures in European politics in living memory.

The former media tycoon who, at the time of his death, was the third richest person in Italy, served as the prime minister of the country in four governments from 1994 to 1995, 2001 to 2006 and 2008 to 2011.

He also acted as a member of the European Parliament from 2019 to 2022, a role he had previously held from 1999 to 2001.

While in office, he was legendary across the globe. Known for infamous ‘bunga bunga’ parties, he was ranked in 2009 by Forbes as 12th in the list of the World’s Most Powerful People due to his domination of Italian politics throughout more than fifteen years at the head of the centre-right coalition.

Berlusconi’s 9 years as Prime Minister made him the longest serving post-war prime minister of Italy, as well as the third longest-serving since Italian unification, after Benito Mussolini and Giovanni Giolitti.

In 2013, Berlusconi was convicted of tax fraud by the Supreme Court of Cassation. He was given a four-year prison sentence and was banned from holding public office for two years.

He managed to avoid jail due, in part, to his age and instead served his sentence by doing unpaid community service.

He was nevertheless banned from holding legislative office for six years and expelled from the Senate.

After the political banishment was up, Berlusconi returned to the European Parliament as an MEP and returned to the Italian Senate after winning a seat in the 2022 Italian general election. 

Outside of politics, he also owned the popular Italian football club AC Milan from 1986 to 2017

Known for his authoritarian stance, populist political style and brash personality, he was a divisive figure until the end.

Throughout his long tenure, he was accused of mismanaging the state budget and of increasing the Italian government debt. He was also much criticised for his apparent vigorous pursuit of his personal interests while in office as well as being blackmailed due to his turbulent private life.

Despite dividing Italy and the wider political landscape, Berlusoni was given a state funeral following his death on 12 June at the age of 86, after a battle with chronic leukaemia.

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How ‘continuity candidate’ Humza Yousaf clinched Scotland’s top job

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After a short but bitter leadership contest, Humza Yousaf was elected the new leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) on Monday and will soon take over from the formidable Nicola Sturgeon as Scotland’s first minister. FRANCE 24 takes a closer look at how Yousaf successfully won over party members to clinch the top job in Scottish politics and usher in the post-Sturgeon era, which promises to be a challenging one.

Following Sturgeon’s shock resignation on February 15, SNP members had a choice of three candidates to succeed her. With 52.1 percent of the final vote of party members, Yousaf – the outgoing health secretary – narrowly defeated his closest rival and former colleague Kate Forbes, the outgoing finance secretary, who took 47.9 percent. 

The 37-year-old Yousaf has made history by becoming the youngest Scottish first minister and the first from an ethnic minority background. He’s also only the second Muslim to lead a political party in the UK (after Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar). It’s the culmination of an almost meteoric rise for the waistcoat-clad politician, who was born in Glasgow to South Asian parents. Yousaf, whose father and grandfather emigrated from Pakistan in the 1960s, is a practicing Muslim who has spoken openly about having to face racist abuse throughout his career. He was first elected as an SNP member of the Scottish parliament (MSP) in 2011, and at 26 was the youngest-ever parliamentarian at the time. The following year, he became the first Muslim and first South Asian to be appointed to the Scottish cabinet.

Yousaf has since held some of the most high-profile and challenging posts in government – notably as justice secretary and, most recently, as health secretary – but has faced criticism over his record.

“I feel like the luckiest man in the world to be standing here, as the leader of the SNP, a party I joined almost 20 years ago and that I love so dearly,” he declared in an emotional acceptance speech. He added: “To serve my country as first minister will be the greatest privilege and honour of my life.” Perhaps in a nod to the fact that he was only elected by some 51,000 party members, he vowed to be “a first minister for all of Scotland”.

Yousaf was the party establishment’s favourite, racking up the most endorsements by far from SNP MSPs and MPs and vowing to continue the “progressive agenda” the party has espoused under Sturgeon’s leadership. Although the outgoing first minister did not endorse any of the candidates, she stressed the importance of “not throwing the baby out with the bathwater”: a clear indication of support for Yousaf. His success can, therefore, partly be explained by his status as the “continuity candidate” following Sturgeon’s resignation, although he has said he will be his “own man”. 

Opposing views on gay marriage 

Yousaf also benefited from the missteps of Forbes, his main rival during the leadership race. Her campaign got off to a disastrous start when she publicly expressed her views on gay marriage. The married 32-year-old Highlander, who had a baby last year, is a member of the socially conservative Free Church of Scotland. Forbes admitted that, had she been an MSP at the time in 2014, she would not have voted to legalise same-sex marriage in line with her faith. This revelation cost her several endorsements among SNP lawmakers and led to a considerable amount of bad press. Forbes also said that she personally opposes abortion and having children out of wedlock, views that put her at odds with the majority of Scottish public opinion. Her later claim that she would “defend to the hilt everybody’s right in a pluralistic and tolerant society to live and to love free of harassment and fear” appears to have been insufficient to repair the damage done to her leadership bid.

 

 

Mark McGeoghegan, a pollster and PhD researcher at the University of Glasgow in the strategy and tactics of secessionist movements, said that Forbes’s conservative Christian views probably doomed her chances of taking the top job. Yet he stressed that she still won a lot of support. “There clearly is a very sizeable chunk of the SNP membership who would like a bigger change from the party than they think they’re going to get with Humza Yousaf. If she (Forbes) had been, perhaps, less divisive, to put it that way, she might have done even better,” he said. Conversely, Yousaf has called his support for equal marriage “unequivocal” (although he missed the final vote in parliament back in 2014) and has insisted he will not legislate on the basis of his Muslim faith. 

Their differences on social issues did not end there. Yousaf, a married father of two, supports the controversial Gender Recognition Reform (GRR) bill, which would make it easier for people as young as 16 to change their legal gender. He has also vowed to take the UK government to court over its January decision to block the bill from becoming law. Both Forbes and third-place candidate Ash Regan oppose the bill in its current form (Regan resigned as a junior minister in protest over it) and have said they will not challenge the UK veto in the courts. 


For McGeoghegan, Yousaf’s stance on the GRR bill proved decisive. “Throughout the debates, Humza Yousaf used that dividing line quite effectively – to out-nationalist Kate Forbes, in a sense. Her explicitly saying she wouldn’t contest [the UK government’s veto] allows Humza Yousaf to then argue, ‘Look, I’m the one who is going to stand up for Scotland’s parliament, I’m the one who’s going to stand up for Scotland’s interests’.” 

At an impasse on independence

Yousaf’s triumph comes as polls show support for independence stagnating and the SNP finds itself at an impasse on the constitutional question, following the UK Supreme Court’s ruling last year that the Scottish parliament cannot hold a new independence referendum without Westminster’s consent. Asked about Yousaf’s stance on independence, on which he is seen as more cautious than either Forbes or Regan, McGeoghegan said: “He needs to take forward a clear prospectus to move the independence project forward in some form and convince the party membership to endorse it.” 

McGeoghegan added: “The difficulties that the SNP have right now are not to do with personality and they aren’t to do with the party itself. They’re to do with the structures they’re trying to break Scotland free from. The reality is that the power to hold a referendum doesn’t sit with Holyrood (the Scottish parliament), the power to declare Scottish independence doesn’t sit with Holyrood: All powers over the constitution sit at Westminster. And so there’s a limited set of things you can actually do to try to become an independent country within that structure. And a large part of it is, ultimately, political pressure: building political pressure over time on the centre to make concessions like a referendum.” 

‘Massive policy challenges’ ahead 

Despite his historic victory, Yousaf inherits a tough brief as first minister amid the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, with lingering questions about his competency. He has faced criticism for his record in office, particularly as health secretary, since hospital A&E (accident and emergency) waiting times have reached record highs on his watch. Scottish Labour health spokesperson Jackie Baillie has called him “disastrously out of his depth” and the “worst health secretary since devolution”. Even Forbes, his former colleague, tore into him during a televised debate on the campaign trail, saying, “When you were transport minister, the trains were never on time. When you were justice minister, the police were strained to breaking point. And now as health minister we’ve got record high waiting times.”

 

But McGeoghegan noted that there is enough criticism to go around.

“While Nicola Sturgeon was still the most popular politician in Scotland when she was leaving office, the Scottish public did not think that her government had performed well on education, on the economy or on the NHS. There are massive, massive policy challenges that he’s going to have to get to grips with in the next couple of months,” McGeoghegan said of Yousaf.

“He is definitely politically very vulnerable on these issues, because there is a perception that he, himself, personally has been responsible for some of this under-performance, particularly in the NHS,” he added. A recent Ipsos-Mori poll showed that 42 percent of people in Scotland have an unfavourable opinion of Yousaf and only 22 percent a favourable one. 

James Mitchell, a professor of public policy at Edinburgh University, agreed that “the SNP’s frankly poor record in government is going to have to be addressed”. “He (Yousaf) starts in a very difficult position. The public don’t trust him. The public do not have a high regard for his competence,” Mitchell said. “I do think the SNP is now very much on the defensive and with a pretty weak leader, frankly, with someone who has not enjoyed great success as a minister.”

“The opposition parties are delighted; this is the result they wanted,” he added. 

“I think Sturgeon is the best and most skilled communicator in British politics – not just Scottish politics – and she’s a brilliant debater and amazing campaigner. But she was not great in government. In many ways, Humza Yousaf is a bit like her, but without the campaigning and communication skills, which must be a worry for the SNP,” Mitchell concluded.

In his acceptance speech, Yousaf certainly seemed aware of the challenges ahead. “There will be no empty promises or easy soundbites when the issues in front of us are difficult and complex,” he said. “Because government is not easy and I won’t pretend that it is.”



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Scotland: Why did Nicola Sturgeon resign and who will replace her?

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Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced her decision to leave the nation’s top job on Wednesday, not after an election defeat or an embarrassing scandal, but at a moment that was right for her. 

Until just one day before, Sturgeon said, she was only 99% certain she would go through with it, but conceded that she could have only continued a few more months, if that. 

So why has she decided, now, to step down? After eight years in the job (and another seven as deputy first minister before that), Nicola Sturgeon owes nothing to Scottish politics, her party, or the independence movement. 

But the time had come, she told journalists at a hastily-arranged press conference in Edinburgh, to consider whether carrying on as first minister was right for her, or for the country. 

“If this was just a question of my ability, or my resilience to get through the latest period of pressure I wouldn’t be standing here today, but it’s not. This decision comes from a deeper and longer-term assessment,” she said. 

“Giving absolutely everything of yourself to this job is the only way to do it. The country deserves nothing less. But in truth that can only be done by anyone for so long. For me, it is now in danger of becoming too long.”

Sturgeon said she was never off duty, and had “virtually no privacy”, explaining that it was “very difficult” to go for a walk or meet friends for coffee. She described the “brutality” of being a politician, and how it has taken a toll on herself and the people around her. 

Former SNP MP Stephen Gethins, now a Professor of Practice at Scotland’s University of St Andrew’s, told Euronews that Nicola Sturgeon leaves behind a “very positive legacy.” 

“If you think she was first minister through some of the most tumultuous periods in British politics full stop. In the aftermath of the independence referendum, SNP membership surged. She saw support for independence increase significantly, and more than that, in the big challenging issues of the day she was one of the only UK leaders to come out of the Brexit debacle with any kind of credibility,” he said. 

Sturgeon’s handling of the COVID pandemic, Gethins said, showed “leadership during a tragedy that impacted households across Scotland and across the world.” 

At her Wednesday lunchtime speech, Nicola Sturgeon did stress that resigning was something she had thought about more seriously over the last few weeks and wasn’t a reaction to short-term political problems. 

Opponents will have raised an eyebrow at this: Sturgeon became a lightning rod for gender-critical groups, including Harry Potter author JK Rowling, as parliament debated, then overwhelmingly passed, a new law on rights for trans people in December. 

After that, a new row erupted over a trans woman who was to be put in a women’s prison — even though she had raped two women before she transitioned.

There’s also an ongoing police investigation into possible fundraising fraud at the SNP, where Sturgeon’s husband Peter Murrell is the party’s chief executive. 

Failure to deliver on improving the health service, upgrade a major road in the Highlands, or even bring in a bottle and can recycling scheme have bedevilled her administration of late. 

But it’s been her decision to turn the next UK general election into a de facto referendum on independence that has split the Scottish voting public and even members of her party who would otherwise be closely aligned with her policies. 

Sturgeon has recognised, wisely, that her personal position on the issues, and how polarising she is in Scotland where people either love her or loathe her, could be a barrier to engaging more people in the conversation about independence. 

“Polarisation in politics is not just a problem in Scotland, but across the democratic world,” said Stephen Gethins. 

“A quick glance at social media shows you the toxicity towards the first minister, even on the day of her resignation, is still there. And regardless of how people vote and the parties they back we all need to take seriously the way we engage in public discourse, even with people who don’t share our views,” he said.

Who might replace Nicola Sturgeon?

When Scotland’s previous first minister stepped down after the failed 2014 independence bid, Nicola Sturgeon was the obvious successor. 

Now that Sturgeon is stepping down the situation is different, with no clear heir to the keys of Bute House — the Scottish equivalent of Number 10 Downing Street. 

So who might lead Scotland forward towards another independence referendum? 

Deputy First Minister John Swinney was a previous SNP leader in the early 2000s, and has a huge amount of respect within the party and at the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood. However at age 58 he might be seen more of a caretaker if he became first minister, waiting for generational change to come along. 

Finance Secretary Kate Forbes is on maternity leave at the moment, and at 32 she would be the youngest-ever Scottish first minister if she landed the job. Gaelic speaker Forbes is more socially conservative than Sturgeon on issues like trans and abortion rights. 

Former journalist Angus Robertson is Scotland’s foreign minister and very much a Sturgeon ally. He speaks fluent German — his mother is German — and he’s staunchly pro-European. He previously held the role of the SNP’s leader at Westminster so has had plenty of exposure on the national political stage. While Robertson’s political opponents within the SNP have been critical of some of his economic ideas, they will grudgingly admit he’d be a thoroughly safe pick for Scotland’s top job. 

Humza Yousaf is Scotland’s health secretary, and ambitious enough to want to be first minister. He would be the first person in the position with an immigrant background — his family comes from Pakistan — and is already the first ethnic minority and Muslim cabinet secretary. However, Yousaf has weathered sustained criticism about his handling of the National Health Service in Scotland and opponents would have an endless stream of negative stories to hit him with, so he is likely to be too much of a liability to become first minister at this point. 

What about Westminster politicians?

Under the SNP’s own rules, the party leader must be a Member of the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh and not a Member of Parliament at Westminster.

So any London-based MPs would need to find a seat in Scotland and win it first before making a move to be party leader, and that rules out, for now, the new SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn — who has performed strongly at Prime Minister’s Questions since being elected.

It also rules out the party’s fiery deputy Westminster leader Mhairi Black who can always be counted on for a rousing speech in the chamber, and it rules out too MP Joanna Cherry who in many ways is the antithesis of Nicola Sturgeon but who doesn’t command much support (nor have many political friends) in either Westminster or Holyrood. 

Dark horse candidates – names to watch in the future

As for a couple of dark horse candidates: Fife MSP Jenny Gilruth, a former high school teacher, holds the transport portfolio in government. 

She certainly has the ambition and competence to be Scotland’s first minister (and is married to the ex-leader of the Scottish Labour Party, so presumably knows how to make political compromises!) so it would be a matter of whether or not she wants to throw her hat in the ring. 

Meanwhile, Europe Minister Neil Gray is much-liked by the Consular Corps in Scotland who see him as a sure pair of hands and a skilled operator.  

The timing and political machinations might not work for Gilruth or Gray right now, and they would both be wildcard outsiders to pick up a win — but in politics, you can never count out a dark horse candidate.



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Nicola Sturgeon’s quitting. Who could replace her as Scotland’s leader?

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Nicola Sturgeon’s sudden exit as Scottish first minister and leader of the pro-independence SNP stunned her allies — and leaves a wide open field of hopefuls vying to succeed her.

Sturgeon said Wednesday that she had asked the party’s top brass to “begin the process of electing a new party leader” in the coming days. The SNP is, she insisted, “awash with talented individuals” who could fill her shoes — though she declined to name any.

The departing first minister has dominated the top of the SNP and Scottish politics for almost two decades, first as deputy leader to her mentor-turned-nemesis Alex Salmond, and then as leader since 2014.

She’s largely eclipsed the rest of the SNP’s top team, and leaves no obvious successor. Indeed, recent polling for the Sunday Times found “don’t know” was the resounding favorite for next leader, on 69 percent.

Here’s a guide to the contenders and pretenders as Sturgeon prepares to depart.

Kate Forbes

The Scottish finance secretary will be in pole position — if she wants it.

Currently on maternity leave until April, Kate Forbes’ interest in the top job has been the subject of much debate since her sudden elevation to Sturgeon’s Cabinet back in 2020.

That followed the resignation of scandal-hit predecessor Derek Mackay, and saw Forbes, 32, forced to deliver the Scottish government’s budget announcement at hours’ notice. But the move cemented her status as a rising star from the SNP’s post-Sturgeon-and-Salmond generation.

In the years since, Forbes’ handling of the tricky economy brief has earned her admirers.

“Kate Forbes is the person that is most capable, she has a great grasp of her subject matter and she knows the Scottish economy. She’d come with a different set of ideas to Nicola Sturgeon,” one former senior SNP adviser said, pointing to her as a more “centrist” politician than the departing Scottish FM.

Despite this, she has denied any interest in the top role. In late 2020, Forbes gave a categorical “no” when asked by POLITICO in 2020 if she would ever want to be first minister.

A series of glowing media profiles — including one in the Sunday Times that cited a “source close to” her saying she had not ruled out standing — could encourage her to reconsider. Polling in the same newspaper also flagged Forbes’ position as the front-runner (albeit behind top contender “don’t know”) in a largely anonymous field.

And yet Forbes’ differing views to Sturgeon on a key culture wars issue — the Scottish government’s bid to ease gender recognition laws — could pose difficulties in a leadership contest.

Though Forbes — a devout Christian — never publicly voted or spoke against the Scottish government’s gender reforms, she was among a handful of SNP lawmakers to sign a letter expressing their concerns about the legislation back in 2019 and has avoided offering full-throated backing to the plans.

Angus Robertson

As one of Sturgeon’s closest allies and a nationalist veteran present during the SNP’s rise to power, Angus Robertson has long been thought of as a potential future leader.

Once the party’s chief in Westminster, Sturgeon immediately gave Robertson the constitutional affairs brief when he returned to elected office in the 2021 election to Scotland’s devolved parliament at Holyrood.

As part of that brief, the 53-year-old has become a familiar presence in Brussels and some European capitals, leading the SNP’s efforts to win favor and friends in the EU.

Some in the SNP worry he isn’t exciting enough — though he’s seen as a safe option.

One SNP MP described him as “like an SNP leader from central casting,” while another MP from the same party said they’re “not sure he’s as popular as he thinks he is.”

While Robertson is widely expected to run in the leadership election, some doubt remains.

“I’m a happy father of two extremely young children and that is what is taking up a lot of my time, effort and focus,” Robertson told POLITICO in an interview in late 2022. A close friend, speaking before Sturgeon quit, said at the time that Robertson wasn’t interested in the job.

John Swinney

If the SNP is looking for a safe pair of hands to ease the transition to its next generation, Sturgeon’s trusted number two could become an attractive option.

John Swinney, as deputy first minister, has effectively acted as Sturgeon’s fixer during her nine years in government.

Initially finance minister, Swinney has also held the difficult briefs of education and pandemic recovery during his time in Sturgeon’s government. He returned to the finance job to fill in for Forbes during her current maternity leave.

Swinney has already served as SNP leader, heading up the party for four years during a difficult period in the early 2000s.

Senior party figures worried about life after Sturgeon might be tempted to persuade him to return.

Neil Gray

Described as a decent “outside bet,” by one SNP MP, Neil Gray could become a serious contender if no front-runner emerges.

Another member of the SNP’s next generation, Gray swapped his seat in Westminster for a Holyrood one in 2021 — sparking whispers about his ambition for higher office.

Gray is seen as an assured media performer and has impressed colleagues both in Westminster and Holyrood. He currently serves as the minister for culture and Europe, after steering the Scottish government’s Ukrainian refugees program.

Other outside bets

The current environment minister and former special adviser to Sturgeon Màiri McAllan is seen as a potential future SNP leader, though — with less than two years of experience as an MSP — the current vacancy may come too early.

Sturgeon loyalist Humza Yousaf was once seen as a likely contender, but a tricky few years of running Scotland’s beleaguered NHS as health minister have dented his credentials.

Rebel MP Joanna Cherry, one of Sturgeon’s harshest SNP critics, could launch an unlikely pitch as a candidate offering to ditch the party’s contentious gender reforms. Cherry lacks support from outside the party’s fringes, however.

Not running

34-year-old Stephen Flynn‘s rapid rise to become SNP leader at the Westminster parliament was as swift as it was unwelcome for Sturgeon’s top team, who did not want their ally, the former Westminster leader Ian Blackford, to be deposed. However, as an MP and not an MSP (member of the Scottish parliament) Flynn could currently only replace Sturgeon as SNP leader — and not as Scotland’s first minister. He ruled himself out of the top job Wednesday, telling the BBC he had “no intention” of running and that “the next leader of our party, of Scotland’s government, will be a member of the SNP Holyrood group.”



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