Tag: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan

Close to three weeks have passed since the violence erupted in Sudan between its military, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group. The fighting has dashed the country’s hopes for a peaceful transition to a civilian government. The conflict has left hundreds of people dead, thousands injured and millions displaced, according to figures from the United Nations.

Sudan is a country in northeast Africa, bordering the Red Sea. With a population of about 46 million, it is one of the continent’s most populous nations and largest geographically. It is also one of the poorest countries in the world.

The present conflict is a power struggle between two Sudanese generals: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces, and Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti, the head of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a powerful Sudanese paramilitary group. Here’s how it started:

Also read |Sudan conflict: Global fallout and impact on India

Conflict locations

Fighting erupted in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, on April 15 in a culmination of weeks of tensions between Gen. al-Burhan and Gen. Dagalo. The airport, a military base, and the presidential palace were damaged during clashes on April 15. The Indian embassy in the city was stormed and looted. Nearby Omdurman also saw clashes. As of April 27, around 183 people had been killed in Khartoum alone. Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) showed close to 50% of all incidents of political violence between April 15 and April 24 happened in Khartoum. As of May 6, 60 of the 88 hospitals in Khartoum were out of service, according to the Sudanese Doctors Union.

In the Darfur region, Al Fasher, El Genena, El Obeid, and Nyala have seen the highest of fighting. In El Geneina, for instance, the number of fatalities grew from five in the first week to 47 in the second week. The military had retreated from Genena and the residents took up arms to defend themselves against the rampant violence. By April 28, almost all of Genena’s medical facilities, including its main hospital, had been out of service for days. The sole functioning hospital was inaccessible because of the fighting.

Also read |In Frames | Generals in a labyrinth

In El Fasher, reports came in of 30 people from Karnataka’s Hakki Pikki tribe stuck in the city amidst constant shelling and attack. Most of them have been evacuated as of May 4. Nyala city saw 51 fatalities over the two weeks. According to ACLED, most of these clashes happened along major roadways connecting Sudan’s west to its east.

The maps below show clash locations in the first and second week since April 15, when the fighting began.

Neither faction has let up their fighting. Even with ceasefires announced, fighting continued to break out. The RSF has taken control of at least four locations — the Merowe airport, in Nyala, Khartoum and Khartoum North. The SAF, on the other hand, took control of RSF headquarters and camps in Port Sudan, Kadugli and El Fasher.

Port Sudan is also the pick-up point for evacuating Indians from Sudan to Jeddah in Saudi Arabia. Over nearly nine days, India has evacuated around 3,862 Indians from Sudan. Besides India, countries like Saudi Arabia, United States, Britain, Egypt, Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Japan, China, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates, Russia, Indonesia, Canada, South Africa, Sudan’s neighbour Chad, Kenya, Ukraine, and Iran have run evacuation missions to move their citizens away from the war-torn country.

Also read:Explained | The tribal clash that killed over 200 in Darfur and its link to Sudan’s ethnic conflict

Fatalities

Due to recurring clashes in Sudan, fatalities have been reported very frequently, but the number of deaths rose exponentially in the month of April this year. From April 15-28, data from ACLED shows there were 711 fatalities reported in Sudan, out of which 671 of the deaths were attributed to the battles, 13 attributed to violence against civilians, and 27 attributed to explosions or remote violence. There were a total of 253 fatalities reported until April 14, from the beginning of this year.

There have been fatalities associated with conflicts in Sudan in every month since January 2012, data from ACLED shows. 2018, 2019, and 2020 were the only years where the average number of monthly fatalities reported were under 100. There was an average of 85 deaths reported every month in 2018; close to 47 deaths in 2019; and 77 in 2019.

In a month, Sudan has witnessed the highest number of fatalities in May 2013 (1,374 deaths), followed by April 2016 (1,080), and March 2014 (1,044). April 2023 has been the fourth highest month when it comes to the number of fatalities, where there have been 815 reported deaths.

When it comes to the deaths related to the current widespread conflict between the RSF and SAF, the most number of fatalities, as of April 27, have been reported in the state of Khartoum, which is one of the smallest but also the most populous state in the country.

As seen above, the states to the west of Khartoum are the ones that have been seeing a higher number of fatalities compared to those to the east, north, and south of Khartoum. The concentration of conflict locations, apart from the capital, is also in these states as shown in the maps above.

Also read |Geography as character: writers trace Sudan’s complex, at times contradictory, significance

Displacement

According to the UN Refugee Agency, over 1,10,000 refugees have crossed from Sudan to neighbouring countries since the start of the fighting, while about 334,000 people are estimated to have been internally displaced. The influx of refugees to neighbouring countries is expected to rise in coming days.

The most significant cross-border movements in the region have been Sudanese fleeing to Egypt, Chad, and South Sudanese refugees returning to South Sudan. Libya, Ethiopia, and Central African Republic have also reported arrival of refugees between 1000-10,000.

According to the agency, most of the refugees are sheltering under trees in villages only 5km away from Sudan. They lack clean water and food. Many of those who have arrived in the neighbouring countries have had the means to pay for transportation and, reportedly, large number of people are trying to reach the border on foot.

The refugee agency expects over 800,000 people, including Sudanese nationals and thousands of existing refugees living temporarily in the country, to flee Sudan as a result of the ongoing conflict.

According to UNHCR, the humanitarian impact of this crisis will be harsh. Sudan hosts more than 1 million refugees and 3.7 million internally displaced people. Assistance programmes that were already overstretched are now severely hampered.

Millions of Sudanese, unable to afford the inflated prices required to escape the battles, are sheltered in their homes with dwindling food, water and frequent power cuts.

Darfur, which has been witnessing internal fighting since 2003, is the most severely hit region in the country. According to the UN, about 2.6 million people are already displaced by its long conflict in Darfur. The renewed conflict have pushed the people in the region to flee the country and seek refuge in Chad.

Sudan in the international arena

The conflict inside Sudan has many external players, and many countries are ranged on one side or the other of this conflict- some for historic reasons, others due to new rivalries and interests.

Russia

Hemedti had cultivated ties with Russia. Western diplomats in Khartoum said in 2022 that Russia’s Wagner Group was involved in illicit gold mining in Sudan and was spreading disinformation. Hemedti said he advised Sudan to cut ties to Wagner after the U.S. imposed sanctions on the private military contractor.

United Arab Emirates

The most important regional ally for Hemedti before the conflict was the United Arab Emirates.

Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor at King’s College, London, told Reuters, the UAE has provided Hemedti, who grew rich through the gold trade, with a platform for channelling his finances as well as public relations support for the RSF. However, the UAE has sought to hedge its bets, retaining ties to Burhan and the army and joining the Quad, a grouping that has taken the lead on diplomacy on Sudan and includes the United States, Saudi Arabia and Britain.

Egypt

Diplomats and analysts say Egypt feels comfortable dealing with Burhan and sees him as the most likely guarantor of its interests, including in negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project upstream on the Blue Nile.

Sudan is in a volatile region, bordering the Red Sea, the Sahel, and the Horn of Africa. Five of its seven neighbours — Ethiopia, Chad, Central African Republic, Libya and South Sudan — have been affected by recent political upheavals and conflict.

Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Israel

Ethiopia and Kenya have prominent role in regional diplomacy and previous mediation in Sudan. South Sudan hosted peace talks between the Sudanese state and rebel groups in recent years, and was designated as one of the countries that could host talks over the current crisis. Israel, which had been hoping to move forward in normalising ties with Sudan, has also offered to host talks.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has had close ties to Burhan and Hemedti, both of whom sent troops to the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.

Anna Jacobs, Senior Gulf Analyst with Crisis Group, told Reuters, Riyadh has asserted itself in mediating over Sudan, as it steps up its diplomatic ambitions across the Middle East, while also looking to protect its economic ambitions in the Red Sea region.

Saudi Arabia and the United States have been leading efforts to secure an effective ceasefire. On May 6, Sudan envoys began talks to establish a ceasefire as part of a diplomatic initiative by the two countries.

The Western powers, led by the United States, supported a new transition deal to be finalised in early April. However, the deal instead helped trigger the eruption of fighting by creating a stand-off over the future structure of the military.

(Compiled by Godhashri S, Gautam Nirmal Doshi, Sandra Cyriac, Ramesh Chandran K P. With inputs from Reuters, AP, AFP, United Nations, World Bank)